The big shift this week is that the war trade has nearly finished unwinding, and the data trade is now in the driver’s seat. Hormuz throughput is back to about 70% of pre-war levels, WTI settled at $78 on Friday after dipping to $76 intraday, and the 90-day ceasefire extension signed on April 22 has held cleanly through 11 days without a major incident. With oil largely off the table, two forces are setting the tone: the hawkish hold the Fed delivered Wednesday, and a Mag-7 reporting season that is far more bifurcated than the headline beats let on.
Friday’s NFP came in at 68K against a 145K consensus, and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, giving the bond market exactly what it wanted at exactly the right moment. The 10Y rallied 9 bps to 4.18% and the 2Y dropped 8 bps as the curve repriced odds of a July cut from 35% pre-print to 62% post-print. Equities cheered the print initially, chopped through the morning, then closed firm into the bell. The S&P tacked on 0.41% to finish at 6,952, less than 50 points shy of the all-time high set on April 14. Nasdaq carried the week on clean META and MSFT prints. AAPL was the lone Mag-7 disappointment, sliding 4.8% Friday after guiding June quarter revenue 3% below Street on softer iPhone demand in China and another round of Vision Pro write-downs.
Powell’s Wednesday press conference came across more hawkish than the dot plot implied. The committee held at 4.25% to 4.50% as expected, but Powell pushed back hard against the September cut narrative, citing sticky shelter inflation and the lagged passthrough from the March oil spike still rolling through core goods. Warsh confirmation hearings are now scheduled for May 12. Until that wraps, the Fed sits in waiting mode and Powell is steering carefully.
Three things that matter heading into Monday:
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The bond market is doing the cutting for the Fed. The 10Y at 4.18% is 22 bps tighter than two weeks ago, the curve has bull-steepened, and real yields are falling. That backdrop supports duration-sensitive equities (software, biotech, REITs) regardless of what Powell says into the microphone. The risk is a hot April CPI on May 13.
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Mag-7 dispersion has finally arrived. META +6.8% on the week, MSFT +3.2%, AMZN +5.9% on AWS reaccelerating to 22% growth, NVDA +2.1%, GOOG flat, AAPL -4.8%, TSLA -3.1%. The “buy the index of seven” trade is broken. Stock selection inside the basket matters again, and we are leaning into AMZN and META over AAPL and TSLA.
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PLTR reports Monday after the close. This is the Burry vs. Ives showdown we have been flagging since March. Stock sits at $128, down 38% from the November high but up 7% over the past two weeks as the Anthropic Managed Agents narrative cools. Whisper number is $0.13 EPS on $878M revenue. Anything below $870M revenue and the stock prints a 10-handle.
The Macro Print
NFP — Friday May 1
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline NFP | +145K | +68K | -77K |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | 4.4% | +0.1pp |
| Avg Hourly Earnings (m/m) | +0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1pp |
| Avg Hourly Earnings (y/y) | +3.8% | +3.7% | -0.1pp |
| Labor Force Participation | 62.6% | 62.5% | -0.1pp |
| Prior Two-Month Revisions | — | -42K | Negative |
The print is a clean soft-landing-with-a-wobble report. Healthcare and government carried the headline (+59K combined). Manufacturing lost 18K, retail lost 12K, and temp help fell for a third straight month, which is historically a leading indicator. The participation drop took some of the sting out of the unemployment tick, but the negative revisions and the temp-help signal mean the labor market is genuinely cooling, not just resetting.
Our take: This is the print the Fed needed to see to justify a July cut, and the market got the message. If April CPI on May 13 prints below 3.0%, July is live. The risk is that energy disinflation reverses if Hormuz hiccups, or that shelter stays sticky.
FOMC — April 28 to 29
- Decision: Held at 4.25% to 4.50%, unanimous.
- Statement language: Removed reference to “elevated geopolitical risk” given the ceasefire. Added language on “uneven progress on inflation.”
- Dots: One cut implied for 2026 (down from two in March). Two cuts in 2027.
- Powell presser: Pushed back on a “near-term recalibration.” Said the bar for cuts is “real, sustained progress” on core inflation. Refused to commit to July.
- Market reaction: 2Y +6 bps Wed, gave it all back Friday. SPX -0.4% Wed, +0.7% Thu, +0.4% Fri. Net week +1.6%.
Earnings Recap — Mag-7 Week
| Company | Rev Beat/Miss | EPS Beat/Miss | Guide | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Beat (+3%) | Beat | In-line, Azure +30% | +3.2% wk |
| META | Beat (+5%) | Beat (+11%) | Raised; ad strength | +6.8% wk |
| GOOG | In-line | Beat | Cautious on Search | flat wk |
| AMZN | Beat (+2%) | Beat | AWS reaccelerating to 22% | +5.9% wk |
| AAPL | In-line | Beat | June Q -3% below Street | -4.8% wk |
| NVDA | (May 28 print) | — | — | +2.1% wk |
| TSLA | Miss (-2%) | Miss | Margin guide cut | -3.1% wk |
The dispersion story: META and AMZN are the clean longs out of this week. META’s ad business is benefiting from political spend pulling forward into Q2 ahead of the midterms, and Reels monetization has crossed parity with feed. AMZN’s AWS reaccel to 22% is the single most important data point of the week for the AI capex thesis. AAPL is the cleanest short inside Mag-7. The Vision Pro write-down was $1.4B this quarter and the iPhone 17 cycle looks light. TSLA is its own story and we are not playing it.
Geopolitics — Quiet, Which Is The Story
The 90-day ceasefire extension signed April 22 in Doha covers all major hot spots: Iran-Israel direct, Hormuz demilitarization timeline, Lebanon south of the Litani, and Yemen Red Sea de-confliction. Hormuz mine clearing is 60% complete per CENTCOM, and tanker traffic Friday hit 41 vessels (vs 50-55 pre-war daily average). The first US-Iran prisoner exchange in five years happened Tuesday, with two American businessmen released in exchange for three Iranian nationals on US sanctions list charges. Markets shrugged, which is the right reaction.
The remaining risk: Enrichment is still the unresolved issue and the May 22 technical-talks deadline in Geneva is the next event. If those break down, oil and VIX both reprice quickly. Probability is low (we estimate 20%) but the tail is fat.
Signal Tracker
| Signal | Status | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire holding (Day 25 of 90-day extension) | Stable | BULL |
| Hormuz tanker traffic | 70% of pre-war | BULL |
| WTI at $78, Brent $81 | War premium gone | BULL |
| 10Y at 4.18% | Curve bull-steepening | BULL |
| NFP softening, UR 4.4% | July cut at 62% | BULL |
| FOMC hawkish hold | Powell pushback on cuts | BEAR |
| AAPL guide cut, China iPhone | Consumer weakness | BEAR |
| Mag-7 dispersion arriving | Stock picker’s market | NEUTRAL |
| AWS +22%, Azure +30% | AI capex thesis intact | BULL |
| Geneva enrichment talks May 22 | Binary tail risk | NEUTRAL |
Assessment: 6 BULL / 2 BEAR / 2 NEUTRAL. This is the most constructive signal mix since February. The path of least resistance into PLTR Monday and CPI May 13 is higher, but the size of the move from here depends on whether AAPL is idiosyncratic or whether it is the leading edge of a broader Mag-7 deceleration.
Trade Ideas
▲ BUY META Calls — June 19 $620 (current $574 underlying after +6.8% wk)
The Q1 print de-risked the back half. Reels monetization at parity, ad revenue +24% y/y, and political ad pull-forward into Q2 ahead of November. Implied vol on June expiry sits at 28%, which is below the 32% pre-print level despite the upside guide. Buy the June 19 $620 calls for ~$11. Breakeven $631, +10% from spot. We like calls over stock here because the realized-vs-implied gap is wide, gamma will work, and we get convexity into the May 13 CPI print. Risk: Hot CPI re-tightens the discount rate. Position size 1.5% of NAV max.
▼ SELL AAPL — Or Buy June 19 $185 / $175 Put Spread
Vision Pro write-down was the second in three quarters. China iPhone units down 12% y/y. Services growth decelerated to +9%, the slowest since 2019. The fundamental setup is the worst it has been in a decade, and the stock is still 28x forward. Outright short the stock at $192, or buy the June 19 $185 / $175 put spread for ~$2.40 net debit (max profit $7.60, breakeven $182.60). Defined risk, 3:1 payoff, captures a re-rate to $180 if the iPhone 17 supply chain checks come in light over the next six weeks. Risk: Buyback acceleration. AAPL announced an $115B repurchase authorization on the call, which provides a soft bid. Size accordingly.
▲ BUY 10Y Duration Via TLT June $94 Calls
The bond market is doing what the Fed will not. NFP softening, JOLTS softening (last week’s print was 7.4M, lowest since 2021), and the disinflation impulse from oil collapsing 30% in three weeks all argue 10Y goes to 4.00% by July. TLT at $89.40, June $94 calls for ~$0.85. Cheap convexity on the rates trade if a single CPI print breaks soft. Risk: Hot April CPI on May 13. If shelter does not roll over, this trade gets stopped out and we move on. Pre-define max loss at 30 bps of NAV.
▼ SELL XLE / XOM Into Strength
Reiterate from April 11. WTI at $78, Brent at $81, dated Brent compressing toward futures. The war premium is fully out and demand-side data (NFP soft, ISM Manufacturing 47.8) is now negative for the complex. XLE has held up surprisingly well at $94, which is the entry. Outright short or buy June $90 / $84 put spread for ~$1.85 net debit. Risk: Geneva talks fail May 22 and oil snaps back. Set hedges via long-dated WTI calls if you size meaningful here.
— TACTICAL: Sell VIX Premium
VIX at 16.8 with the geopolitical premium gone, FOMC behind us, and most of Mag-7 reported. The earnings still ahead (NVDA May 28, PLTR Monday) are idiosyncratic, not index-level. Sell June VIX $22 calls outright or as part of a 1x2 call spread (long 1 $18 / short 2 $22). Premium-collection trade with a defined window of three to four weeks before NVDA print becomes a factor. Risk: Geneva or a CPI surprise. Cover if VIX prints 19+ intraday.
▲ STAY LONG BA — Top Conviction (Reiterate)
Q1 print on April 24 was the cleanest in three years. 737 MAX deliveries hit 38 for the quarter, free cash flow turned positive a quarter early, and the defense backlog grew $4B q/q. Travel demand is back to 2019 baseline as airlines re-add Middle East and Asia routes post-ceasefire. PT $215 unchanged. Stock at $189, +14% YTD. Risk: 737 MAX production ramp issues, idiosyncratic. Position remains a core long.
What to Watch
Monday May 4
- PLTR earnings (after close). The marquee print of the week. Whisper $0.13 EPS / $878M revenue. Watch US commercial growth (consensus +52% y/y) and government segment (consensus +28%). Anthropic Managed Agents commentary will be scrutinized. Burry’s short disclosure was Q4; we will get a Q1 update mid-month via 13F.
- ISM Services (April), expected 51.2.
- Factory Orders.
Tuesday May 5
- JOLTS (March).
- Trade Balance.
- Earnings: AMD, FERG, DUK.
Wednesday May 7
- Earnings: DIS, UBER, MAR.
- ADP Employment (April).
- Wholesale Inventories.
Thursday May 8
- Initial Jobless Claims.
- Earnings: COIN, AFRM, ABNB, DDOG.
Friday May 9
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary May).
- Earnings: ENB.
Key Dates
- May 12: Warsh confirmation hearing (Senate Banking).
- May 13: CPI April. Consensus 3.0% headline / 2.9% core. Below 3.0% on either is the risk-on trigger.
- May 22: Geneva enrichment technical talks. Binary tail risk for oil and VIX.
- May 28: NVDA earnings. Index-level event.
This note reflects information available as of May 2, 2026, 6:30 AM ET. Pre-market futures open Sunday 6 PM ET. For internal use only. Not investment advice.