PLTR Monday With 10.5% Implied. AAPL Beats Into Cook Handoff. Iran Talks Stall, Brent $111. Abel's First Berkshire.

Sunday before the bell. Friday closed with the S&P at a fresh record of 7,230 and the Nasdaq stretching into new territory, but the geopolitical backdrop hardened in two directions over the weekend. Israeli air force conducted intense strikes across southern Lebanon on Saturday, killing at least 41 people in 24 hours and breaking what had been a fragile two-week ceasefire. In Washington, Trump rejected Iran’s revised peace proposal on Friday afternoon, and the IRGC followed with public commentary that renewed conflict is “possible.” Pakistan-mediated talks remain the only working channel. Brent stayed bid at $111.20 into the weekend, WTI at $105.40, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut by US and Iranian blockades.

The other major weekend story sits 1,200 miles west of Wall Street. Greg Abel ran his first Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha on Saturday with Buffett watching from the audience. Q1 operating profits doubled, the cash pile sits at a record near $385 billion, and Abel ruled out any break-up. The signal that matters for our coverage is Abel’s restraint on AI capital allocation. He told shareholders Berkshire is “not going to do AI for the sake of AI,” which lands as a veiled critique of the hyperscaler capex that has been driving the index. The crowd was visibly thinner than 2025, which is its own data point on Buffett-as-spectacle.

The week’s other set pieces were already in the books before Friday’s close. The April 29 FOMC delivered a hawkish hold at 3.50% to 3.75% with four dissents, the most since 1992, and was Powell’s last meeting in the chair before he steps back to governor on May 15. Apple printed Q2 on April 30, beat across the board on rev and EPS, and disclosed that Tim Cook hands the CEO seat to John Ternus on September 1. The Cook headline initially overshadowed a strong fundamental quarter, but the stock has worked through it and finished the week green. The market is rewarding execution, ignoring CEO transitions, and pricing oil as supply-bound rather than demand-destructive. That combination is fragile.

Three things into Monday:

1. PLTR is the marquee print of the week, after the close. Consensus sits at $0.28 EPS on $1.54B in revenue (revenue +74% y/y), with commercial expected at $771M (+94%) and government at $764M (+57%). Options are pricing a 10.55% straddle, slightly above the four-quarter realized average of 9.28%. The stock has drifted lower into the print despite a recent Oppenheimer initiation at $200, and Burry’s Q4 short disclosure remains the loudest fundamental dissent. We are positioned long on conviction in the AIP commercial accel, but sized for the implied move.

2. AAPL has unfinished business post-Cook. The fundamental Q2 was clean (rev $111.2B +17%, iPhone $57B +22% record, China $20.5B +28% turning to tailwind), but the succession question now overhangs every product decision through September. Ternus is a hardware lifer, not a services or AI architect, and the WWDC keynote on June 9 becomes a referendum on whether the AI roadmap travels with the new chair. We are flat the name into WWDC after taking off the put-spread post-print.

3. The bond market is screaming what equities refuse to hear. The 30Y closed Friday at 5.02%, the first time above 5% since late 2023, and the 10Y at 4.55% sits 37 bps wider than where it printed three weeks ago. Auction tails on the 7Y and 30Y this week were ugly. With four FOMC dissents, a higher CPI risk into May 13, and Brent at $111, duration is the wrong place to be. Equity multiples have not yet rerated for the rates move. They will, and the catalyst is likely CPI.

The Macro Print

FOMC — April 28 to 29 (Powell’s Last as Chair)

Our take: Four dissents is the most fragmented FOMC since 1992, and the dispersion goes both directions (Miran wants cuts, three regional presidents want a hawkish hold). The setup into Warsh’s confirmation matters. If Warsh hits 51 votes (we model 53 to 56), the back end stays bid up and the curve bear-steepens further. If a CPI print on May 13 comes in soft, the Miran dissent looks prescient and the front end rallies. Two-sided risk into Q3.

Last Print: March NFP (April 4 release)

Steady March print kept the Fed in hold mode through April. Initial jobless claims for the week of April 25 dropped to 189K, the lowest reading since September 1969. The labor market is not breaking. April NFP releases Friday May 8.

Earnings Recap — The Mega-Cap Week That Was

The dispersion story: META and AMZN remain the cleanest fundamental longs on AI infrastructure pull-through. AAPL’s beat (especially the China reversal to a tailwind) is genuinely better than the print suggests because the market initially fixated on the Cook headline. We covered our AAPL hedges Friday at a small profit. NVDA does not report until May 28, and the read-throughs from MSFT (Azure +30%), AMZN (AWS +22%), and Alphabet capex commentary all point to another monster quarter. We stay long NVDA into the print but trim half on a move to $215.

Geopolitics — The Ceasefire Is Cracking

The situation is materially worse than it looked one week ago.

Lebanon. Israeli air force struck approximately 50 Hezbollah-linked sites Saturday across Tyre, Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun districts. Lebanon’s Ministry of Health put the 24-hour death toll at 41. Local press reported alleged white phosphorus around Seriane and Taybeh, which would be banned in civilian areas. Hezbollah retaliated with rockets and explosive drones at IDF positions in southern Lebanon. One rocket was intercepted, several detonated near forces without injuries. The November ceasefire framework is functionally suspended even if neither side has formally withdrawn. Over a million people remain displaced.

Iran. Trump rejected Tehran’s revised peace proposal Friday after a week of Pakistan-mediated shuttle diplomacy. Secretary Rubio called the negotiators “very good” but signaled the latest draft was unsatisfactory. The IRGC stated publicly that “renewed conflict is possible” and that Iran is “fully prepared.” Hormuz transit volumes remain a fraction of pre-war norms, and OFAC’s secondary sanctions on Chinese refiners taking Iranian crude were extended Friday for another 90 days.

Trump tariffs. The 25% secondary tariff on countries doing business with Iran (announced January 12) is still in force. Trump separately threatened a 50% tariff on countries shipping arms to Iran. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing remains scheduled for May 14 to 15, which is the upper bound on tariff escalation in the very near term. Trump is unlikely to torch the China summit by escalating before he gets on the plane.

Oil tape: Brent closed Friday at $111.20, WTI at $105.40. The contango/backwardation flip last week into deeper backwardation tells you the prompt market sees physical tightness, not just risk premium. Dated Brent printed near $115 versus front-month $111. UAE quit OPEC last month, which removed a 2.9 mbpd swing producer from the cartel and structurally tightened the spare capacity picture. The next OPEC+ ministerial is May 21.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting — May 2

Greg Abel ran his first as CEO. Buffett watched from the audience and offered light commentary on the Apple position (initial $35B basis now worth $185B per Buffett). Q1 operating profit doubled. Cash and Treasurys at a record ~$385B. Abel emphasized capital discipline (“financial independence, flexibility, tax efficiency, an aversion to arrogance, bureaucracy and complacency”) and said Berkshire would not “do AI for the sake of AI.” He ruled out a break-up. Adam Johnson (consumer and NetJets), Ajit Jain (insurance), and Katie Farmer (BNSF) joined him on stage. Attendance ran roughly half the 2025 crowd, which is the first soft data point on the Buffett premium decaying out of the equity. BRK/B finished Friday at $510.

Implications: With BRK sitting on $385B of cash earning ~5% on T-bills, every quarter without a deployment is a 50 bps drag versus the index. Abel’s tone suggests no imminent change. The opportunity cost is real and the market may start to price it. Watch BRK/SPY ratio for the first time it breaks the 12-month uptrend.

Signal Tracker

Assessment: 4 BULL / 5 BEAR / 4 NEUTRAL. The signal mix has flipped from constructive to defensive over a single weekend. The S&P at a record while the 30Y prints 5% and Brent prints $111 is not a sustainable combination. We are reducing gross modestly into Monday’s open, raising hedges, and concentrating long exposure in names with idiosyncratic catalysts (PLTR, NVDA into print) versus index beta.

Trade Ideas

▲ PLTR — Long Stock + Long-Dated Call Overlay (After-Bell Print)

Consensus $0.28 EPS / $1.54B revenue, with the upside skew on commercial (+94% expected). Implied move 10.55% on Monday’s straddle, which is rich versus the 9.28% four-quarter realized. We like a barbell: hold the underlying through the print at 60% of target weight, buy August $200 calls on any 5%+ post-print pullback to add convexity into the AI narrative. Avoid weekly straddles because the implied is already pricing the move, and theta is brutal into Friday.

If you do not own the stock and want exposure: buy the May 16 / June 19 $190 call calendar for ~$2.30 net debit. Sell the front (May 16) into the IV crush post-earnings, hold the back (June 19) for the post-AIP-commentary drift. Defined risk, captures the vol structure asymmetry, ~3:1 payoff if the stock holds within 8% of $190 through Friday.

Risk: A revenue miss below $1.50B or government deceleration below +50% breaks the AIP narrative. Position size 1.0% of NAV gross, 0.6% net.

▼ Long 30Y Yields via TLT Put Spread

The 30Y at 5.02% on Friday cleared a critical line. With four FOMC dissents, ugly 7Y and 30Y auction tails last week, Brent at $111, and CPI on May 13 likely to print 3.1% to 3.3% headline (vs. 3.0% consensus), the long end has further to run. Buy the TLT June 19 $82 / $76 put spread for ~$1.65 net debit (TLT spot $84.20). Max profit $4.35 if TLT trades to $76, breakeven $80.35, captures a move to ~5.30% on the 30Y.

This is a hedge against the equity book and a directional view that the term premium is finally rebuilding. Pair with sized long-volatility (see VIX trade below) to hedge the regime risk in size.

Risk: A genuinely soft CPI on May 13 reverses the move. Pre-define max loss at 35 bps of NAV. Cover if 30Y prints below 4.85% intraday.

▲ Long Energy via XOM and OIH Call Spreads

Reverse our April 11 short XLE call. The setup has flipped. Brent backwardation deepened, dated > front by ~$4, UAE out of OPEC, Hormuz still constrained, and now Lebanon fragility re-introducing the demand-side stays-resilient / supply-side stays-tight dual squeeze. Buy XOM common up to $128 (Friday close $124.80), and add OIH June 19 $385 / $415 call spread for ~$8.50 net debit (max profit $21.50, 2.5:1 payoff).

OIH gives you the oil-services beta levered to capex follow-through if Brent stays >$105 through Q2. Pair with WTI long calls (CL Sep $115) if you want overlay protection for the energy book.

Risk: A surprise Iran proposal acceptance or Hormuz reopening would drop Brent $15 in a session. Size accordingly. Use OIH puts at $355 strike as a tail hedge.

— Long VIX June $22 Calls (Outright, Not Spread)

Reverse the May 2 short-vol trade. With the equity index at a record, the geopolitical backdrop hardening, the rates move accelerating, and three of the next ten trading days carrying genuine binary risk (PLTR Monday, CPI May 13, Trump-Xi May 14-15), VIX at 17.10 is too cheap. Buy June 18 $22 calls outright for ~$1.20. Skew is flat, term structure in mild contango, and a single 2% S&P down day takes VIX to 22+.

Risk: A PLTR blowout, a soft CPI, and a Trump-Xi photo-op could collapse VIX through 14 in one session. Position size 0.4% of NAV, treat as a portfolio hedge rather than directional vol.

▼ Short Long-Duration Tech via SOXL Put Spread

Not a fundamental short on semis. A tactical hedge against the rates move bleeding into long-duration multiples. SOXL (3x semis) at $42, buy the May 16 $40 / $36 put spread for ~$1.05 net debit. Max profit $2.95, ~3:1 payoff, captures a 2-week rates-driven rerate without taking a direct view on NVDA (which we still like into the May 28 print).

Risk: A Trump-Xi tariff de-escalation announcement could rip semis 5% in a session. Stop on a SOXL move above $45.

▲ STAY LONG BA — Top Conviction (Reiterate from May 2)

Q1 print on April 24 was the cleanest in three years. 737 MAX deliveries hit 38, FCF turned positive a quarter early, defense backlog grew $4B q/q. Travel demand back to 2019 baseline. Stock at $191 (+1.1% on the week), PT $215. The Lebanon escalation is a marginal positive for defense backlog, not a negative for commercial demand. Position remains a core long. No options overlay needed; conviction is in the equity.

Risk: 737 MAX production ramp issues. Idiosyncratic.

What to Watch — Week of May 4

Monday May 4

• PLTR earnings (after close, ~4:05 PM ET). Whisper $0.28 EPS / $1.54B revenue. Watch commercial growth (consensus +94%), government (+57%), AIP customer count, and updated full-year guide. Implied straddle 10.55%.
• ISM Services (April), expected 51.0.
• Factory Orders (March).

Tuesday May 5

• AMD earnings (after close). MI400 ramp commentary, hyperscaler order book, and the read-through to NVDA. Whisper $1.45 EPS / $7.65B revenue. Implied move ~7%.
• JOLTS (March).
• Trade Balance.
• Earnings: FERG, DUK, MAR.

Wednesday May 6

• DIS, UBER earnings. Disney parks demand into summer travel and DTC profitability. Uber rides into the Olympics-adjacent quarters and AV partnership commentary.
• ADP Employment (April).
• Wholesale Inventories.
• 10Y Treasury auction (watch the tail).

Thursday May 7

• COIN, ABNB, AFRM, DDOG earnings. Crypto multiples, summer travel, BNPL credit, and observability spend.
• Initial Jobless Claims.
• 30Y Treasury auction (last week’s tail was 4.5 bps; another ugly auction breaks 5.10% on the 30Y).

Friday May 8

• April NFP. Consensus +120K, UR 4.3%. First clean read on whether the labor market is holding. A sub-100K print combined with UR to 4.4% gets the Miran dissent into the regional Fed presidents’ camp by the June meeting.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary May).
• Consumer Credit.
• Earnings: ENB.

Key Dates Ahead

• May 12: Warsh confirmation hearing (Senate Banking).
• May 13: CPI April. Consensus 3.0% headline / 2.9% core. We model 3.1% / 3.0%, in part reflecting energy passthrough from $111 Brent. Above 3.1% is the risk-off trigger.
• May 14 to 15: Trump-Xi summit, Beijing. Outcome will set the tariff cap into Q3.
• May 21: OPEC+ ministerial. Watch the UAE seat and any production response to $111 Brent.
• May 22: Geneva US-Iran technical talks (if they proceed). Binary tail risk for oil.
• May 28: NVDA Q1 earnings. Index-level event.

This note reflects information available as of May 3, 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Pre-market futures open Sunday 6 PM ET. For internal use only. Not investment advice.