PLTR Crushes With Stock Flat, UAE Refinery Hit by Iran, AMD Tonight, Brent $113.

Tuesday pre-market, 7:00 AM ET. Two stories own the tape this morning, and they pull in opposite directions. Palantir delivered the cleanest software print in the S&P 500 in over a decade after Monday’s close, with revenue up 85% to $1.63 billion, US commercial up 133%, full year guidance lifted to $7.66 billion, and the stock initially up only 1.5% in aftermarket because everything good was already in the price. Then at roughly 9:00 PM ET Iran broke the April 8 ceasefire, firing 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the United Arab Emirates, igniting a fire at the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone and forcing ADNOC to shut a 922,000 barrel per day refinery. Brent sits at $112.90, off the overnight $116 high but still 4% above Monday’s close, and S&P futures have managed to claw back to +0.20% on the back of the PLTR halo and a sense that Tuesday’s Iran salvo is theatre rather than escalation. We do not share that read.

The geopolitical sequence matters more than any single tape today. Iran’s salvo answered Project Freedom on its second day, and the US Navy responded by sinking six small Iranian boats overnight, with two of those vessels reportedly armed with rocket pods. The kinetic threshold we flagged Monday morning, which was whether Iran fires on a US-escorted civilian vessel, was not crossed last night. The threshold that was crossed is far more damaging strategically, namely a direct strike on Gulf Cooperation Council infrastructure for the first time since the war began. The UAE has been the most cautious GCC member on US-Iran escalation, and Tehran just removed any incentive for Abu Dhabi to broker. Pakistan-mediated talks are now the only working channel, and they did not survive Sunday’s 14-point proposal becoming Tuesday’s drone strike. Brent’s overnight $116 print is the market’s first vote on whether ceasefire is salvageable. The pullback to $113 is the second vote, partial only, contingent on no further escalation through Wednesday.

Three things into Tuesday:

1. PLTR is the print of the year, and the muted reaction is the single most important read in software. US commercial revenue printed $595 million on a $440 million whisper, growing 133% year over year against a +94% consensus and a +110% buyside bar. The full year US commercial guide moved to $3.224 billion (+120%), which is the level that historically inflects the AIP narrative from “hot product cycle” into “platform monopoly.” The stock was up just 1.5% in aftermarket because the multiple was already at 46 times forward revenue and Burry’s Q4 short still looms. This is the pattern of a stock that needs a 20% reset to clean up positioning before the next leg up. We hold the long, sell the May 16 $130/$120 put spread for a gain, and rotate to a longer-dated June $200/$220 call vertical funded by the $145 strike short put.

2. The UAE strike rewrites the energy book on a four-week view. Fujairah is a separate matter from the Strait itself, the entire reason the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline exists is to bypass Hormuz risk on the run from inland fields to the Gulf of Oman. ADNOC running 922,000 barrels per day through Fujairah was the single largest piece of “operational despite blockade” capacity in the GCC. Take that offline for any duration and the spot cargo market loses one of its pressure-release valves. Brent backwardation steepens, the front-month versus December 2026 spread blows out, and the calendar trade we put on Monday shifts from “ceasefire normalization” to “war premium permanence.” We are reversing that calendar spread today.

3. AMD reports tonight, and the binary is still gross margin. Consensus sits at $1.28 to $1.30 EPS and $9.84 billion in revenue, +33% year over year. The stock has run 64% in April and 68% YTD, which is the entire reason implied vol is just 8% on a quarter where the data center number probably prints 30% above Q4. Lisa Su’s job tonight is to thread the OpenAI 6GW deal commentary, the Meta 6GW deal commentary, and a clean Q2 gross margin guide above 54%. Our base case is a slightly disappointing GM print at 53.8% offset by a strong Q3 outlook, leaving the stock flat to down 3% in aftermarket. We are flat into the print after taking off the long position last week.

The Macro Print

What Already Posted This Week

Today’s Calendar

Our take on JOLTS: A print under 6.7 million flips the front-end pricing toward two cuts in 2026 and undermines the FOMC’s hawkish-hold framing. A print at or above 7.0 million traps Powell. With initial claims at 189K (a 56-year low) and the April ISM Manufacturing prices index at 84.6, we are watching the quits rate, not the headline. A quits rate above 2.2% is consistent with continued wage stickiness and the stagflation read. Below 2.0% and the labor market is finally cracking under tariff and energy stress.

Our take on the Loan Officer Survey: This is the underrated print. Q1 net tightening on C&I loans was already running at +12 percentage points. With Brent at $113, EU autos taking 25%, and the FOMC delivering four dissents, we expect Q2 to push net tightening to +18 to +20, which historically precedes a Q3 capex slowdown by 2 quarters.

The PLTR Print and What Happens Next

The Numbers

Our Take: The US commercial number is the AIP narrative confirmation that bears have been waiting 18 months to disprove. +133% year over year against a +94% consensus and a +110% buyside bar puts the segment on a $2.4 billion run rate, which is the level at which Karp’s “platform” framing becomes defensible rather than aspirational. Net income quadrupled to $870 million. The +1.5% aftermarket reaction reflects positioning, not fundamentals. The stock was 31% below its November all-time high coming in, the multiple was 46 times forward revenue, and Burry’s Q4 short was the loudest fundamental dissent. With a guide raise of this magnitude, sell-side will revise revenue up 5% to 8% by Wednesday and EPS up 12% to 18% over the next two weeks. Our 12-month PT moves from $185 to $215. Position bias remains long, sized at 0.8% of NAV gross.

Karp’s Letter

The shareholder letter included one line that will be quoted by every desk this morning: “Our financial results now demonstrate a level of strength that dwarfs the performance of essentially every software company in history at this scale.” The framing is deliberate. Karp is staking the AIP narrative against MSFT Azure ($28B in Q1, +35%), GOOGL Cloud ($14B, +30%), and CRWD ($1.4B, +26%). The closest historical analog at this scale and growth rate is SNOW circa fiscal 2022, which traded at 70 times forward revenue at its peak. PLTR at 46 times is not cheap, but the relative case has tightened materially.

UAE Attack and the Hormuz Tape Day 2

The strike package was multi-vector and multi-target, which is the operational signature of a planned response rather than a tactical reaction. UAE air defense intercepted 12 ballistic missiles and 3 cruise missiles, with one cruise missile getting through to Fujairah. Four drones were fired, with two reaching the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone, igniting the VTTI storage facility and a separate ADNOC refinery line. ADNOC has shut down 922,000 bpd of refining capacity for an “indefinite assessment period.” Three Indian nationals are confirmed injured. Multiple flights diverted to Muscat. UAE airspace was partially closed from 4:30 AM to 6:15 AM local time. A cargo ship is on fire off the Fujairah coast as of writing, with UKMTO reporting smoke and structural damage but no confirmed crew casualties.

The strategic read on Fujairah specifically: this facility was the entire point of the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline build-out, which was completed in 2012 specifically to give the UAE a sales channel that did not require Strait of Hormuz transit. Hitting Fujairah is hitting the bypass. It removes the cleanest “operational despite Hormuz blockade” capacity in the Gulf and forces every barrel back through the contested waterway. That is bullish front-month Brent for two reasons. First, the immediate cargo loss of roughly 900K bpd. Second, the optionality loss on the bypass route as a contingency for any further Hormuz disruption.

The US response so far has been measured. CENTCOM confirmed the sinking of six small Iranian craft, two of which were “armed with rocket pods” and were intercepted within 12 nautical miles of US-escorted merchant vessels. Defense Secretary Hegseth held a 5:30 AM ET press briefing reiterating that Project Freedom is “defensive in nature, focused in scope, and temporary in duration.” That language is deliberate de-escalation framing on the US side. Iran has denied responsibility for the Fujairah fire, with state media blaming “US military adventurism.” That denial is doing a lot of structural work. It tells us Iran wants the strike to register as a warning, not as a casus belli. We read the tape as 35% probability the ceasefire framework recovers within two weeks, 50% extended low-grade conflict with sporadic strikes and oil in the $105 to $120 range, and 15% full re-escalation with Brent printing $130+.

Two market-moving headlines we expect today:

• ADNOC operational update on Fujairah, expected mid-morning local UAE time (4:00 AM ET to 7:00 AM ET)
• Trump statement, expected mid-morning ET. Tone matters more than substance. A “very tough decisions” framing is far more bearish than “the Iranians made a mistake”

AMD Setup, On Semi, and the Tuesday AMC Slate

AMD detail: The data center segment is consensus $5.56B (+51.5% y/y), against a Q4 print of $4.4B. The MI355 ramp is the only segment that matters tonight. Analyst dispersion is wide, Susquehanna at $375 PT (Buy), HSBC at $340 (downgrade to Hold). Cathie Wood reduced her position by $70M last week, which is a modest tell from a structural bull. The OpenAI 6GW deal and Meta 6GW deal are in the price. We model Q2 GM guide at 54.0%, slightly below the 54.5% consensus, with the MI308 China inventory reversal headwind not fully behind us. Implied move at 8% is fair. We stay flat into the print, willing to add long at $190 (down 5%) or short at $215 (up 7%).

FANG detail: Permian pure-play with the lowest cost basin in the US. Brent at $113 is a tailwind worth roughly $0.40 to Q1 FCF per share against the $4.85 consensus. The risk into the print is the FY capex guide given the recent OPEC+ +188K bpd add. We are long FANG into the print, sized at 0.4% of NAV.

Trade Ideas

▲ Long Brent Near-Month via Calendar Spread Reversal

We are reversing the August/June calendar spread we recommended Monday. The Fujairah strike removes 922K bpd of bypass capacity. Buy the June Brent contract at $112.90 and sell the September contract at $97.10, for a net debit of ~$15.80. The trade prints at $20+ if the front-month rallies on a second UAE strike or any kinetic action through Friday. Position size 0.5% of NAV.

Risk: A US-Iran back-channel ceasefire reaffirmation in 48 hours collapses front-month Brent toward $100 and the spread goes to $10. Stop on a Brent print below $108 ahead of any cease-fire-related headline.

▲ PLTR Stock + Long Call Vertical Replacement

Lift the May 16 $130/$120 put spread. Sell the $145 strike short put expiring May 16 to fund. Add the June 19 $200/$220 call vertical at ~$3.40 net debit. The PLTR thesis is now $215 by year end on the 120% US commercial guide. Position size 1.0% of NAV gross, 0.7% net.

Risk: A 15% pullback to $128 on Burry-style short escalation or any softer Q2 commentary from peers. The call vertical caps loss at $3.40.

▲ Long Defense Basket via LMT, NOC, RTX, GD Call Spreads

The UAE strike is the cleanest possible signal that the FY27 budget reauthorization (committee start May 19) gets locked in at war-elevated levels. Buy LMT June 19 $530/$560 call spread at ~$10 net debit, NOC June 19 $570/$610 spread at ~$11, and add RTX June 19 $145/$155 spread at ~$3.20, plus GD June 19 $310/$330 spread at ~$5.80. Equal weight at 35 bps of NAV per leg.

Risk: A surprise full ceasefire signed within 10 days, low probability at 12% in our base case.

▼ Short ON Semiconductor via Put Spread Into Print

Auto-exposed semi name into a 25% EU tariff regime, into a print where Q2 guide on European auto exposure is the swing factor. Buy June 19 $50/$45 put spread at ~$1.40 net debit. Implied move 11% covers the binary, the put spread caps loss and front-runs a guide cut. Position size 0.3% of NAV.

Risk: A clean EV mix shift narrative from management offsets the auto exposure bear case. Stop on a 5% move higher post-print.

— Long VIX June 18 $20/$26 Call Spread (Reiterate)

VIX printed 18.29 yesterday on the UAE strike, up 7.65% in a single session. Our June 18 $20/$26 call spread from Monday is now in the money on the lower strike, with theoretical value at ~$2.10 against our $1.45 entry. We hold the position. The 30-day skew has steepened materially, and a JOLTS surprise plus an AMD GM miss tonight is the asymmetric pair that takes VIX through 22 before Friday.

Risk: A clean JOLTS print at 6.85M, a soft Iranian de-escalation statement, and an in-line AMD print collapses VIX to 14 by Thursday. Position size 0.3% of NAV.

▲ STAY LONG BA — Top Conviction (Reiterate)

Boeing’s defense backlog gets the second incremental positive in 48 hours from the UAE strike. The 737 MAX commercial cycle is unaffected by Gulf risk because most US-Asia routes do not transit the Persian Gulf. Stock at $194 pre-market, up $1 on yesterday’s close, PT $215. We hold the core long with no overlay.

Risk: 737 MAX production ramp issues, idiosyncratic.

▼ Reduce Crypto Exposure via BTC June Put Spread

Bitcoin recovered to $80,921 from a $77,200 weekend low, but the rally is happening in dislocation from the rates and risk-off backdrop. With 10Y at 4.46% and oil pushing the inflation read higher, the BTC bid does not square with the macro setup. Buy June 27 $76,000/$70,000 put spread at ~$1,800 net debit (10 contracts at 25% NAV exposure).

Risk: A clean ETF inflow week and a soft CPI print on May 13 takes BTC through $90K and the put spread to zero. Sized to be losable.

Signal Tracker

Assessment: 4 BULL / 6 BEAR / 4 NEUTRAL. The signal mix has flipped against the constructive read we held into Monday’s open. Project Freedom is now Day 2, the GCC has been struck, and the FY guide raise from PLTR is doing structural work but cannot offset a Brent re-rating to $115+. We hold the book at neutral gross, raise cash to 14%, and concentrate longs in idiosyncratic catalysts (PLTR, BA, FANG) versus index beta. We are adding to defense and short EU autos.

What to Watch — Rest of Week

Tuesday May 5 (Today)

• AMD Q1 earnings (after close, 4:05 PM ET). Whisper $1.28 EPS / $9.84B rev. Implied move 8%. GM trapdoor is the single most important number.
• ON Semi (after close), VRTX (after close), FANG (after close), PINS (after close), NCLH (BMO)
• JOLTS March (10:00 AM, consensus 6.85M)
• Trade Balance March (8:30 AM, consensus -$83.5B)
• Senior Loan Officer Survey Q2 (2:00 PM)
• ADNOC update on Fujairah, expected through US morning
• Trump statement on UAE strike, expected through US morning

Wednesday May 6

• DIS, UBER earnings. Disney parks demand, DTC profitability, Uber rides volume into AV partnership commentary.
• ADP Employment (April).
• 10Y Treasury auction (1:00 PM). Watch the tail. With 10Y at 4.46% and the Fujairah strike adding inflation risk, a tail above 3 bps is the bearish trigger.
• ISM Services PMI revision (per the new BLS schedule).

Thursday May 7

• COIN, ABNB, AFRM, DDOG earnings. Crypto multiples, summer travel, BNPL credit, observability spend.
• Initial Jobless Claims.
• 30Y Treasury auction (1:00 PM). Last week’s tail was 4.5 bps, this week could be wider.
• Mercedes-Benz Q1 reporting (BMO European time). First read on EU auto tariff impact.

Friday May 8

• April NFP. Consensus +120K, UR 4.3%. First clean read after the labor market kept holding through April. A sub-100K print with UR to 4.4% gets the Miran dissent into the regional Fed presidents’ camp by the June meeting. With ISM Mfg Prices Paid at 84.6 and Brent at $113, a hot AHE print of +0.4% m/m is the bigger risk.
• Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary May).
• Consumer Credit (March).

Key Dates Ahead

• May 11 (week of): Senate full vote on Warsh Fed chair confirmation. We model 53 to 56 votes.
• May 13: CPI April. Consensus 3.0% headline / 2.9% core. Cleveland Nowcast 3.6%. Above 3.3% is the risk-off trigger. With Fujairah out, this number gets harder.
• May 14 to 15: Trump-Xi summit, Beijing. First US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. Tariff cap into Q3 set here.
• May 15: Powell steps back to governor; Warsh likely sworn in as chair.
• May 21: OPEC+ ministerial. First full ministerial without UAE. Production response to UAE strike is the structural read.
• May 22: Geneva US-Iran technical talks (if they proceed). Now low probability after Fujairah.
• May 28: NVDA Q1 earnings. Index-level event.

This note reflects information available as of May 5, 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Pre-market futures continue to trade. For internal use only. Not investment advice.