Wednesday pre-market, 7:00 AM ET. The tape this morning has flipped from war premium to peace premium in roughly fourteen hours, and the read across is everywhere. AMD delivered the cleanest semi print of the cycle after Tuesday’s close, with $10.25 billion in revenue (+38% year over year), a $5.8 billion data center segment (+57%), and a Q2 revenue guide of $10.9 to $11.5 billion that runs $400 million above the Street. The stock is +18% to +20% premarket and the AI capex narrative just got its second wind. Then at roughly 9:30 PM ET, Axios broke that the White House is “closing in” on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, negotiated by Witkoff and Kushner, that would declare the war over and open a 30-day window for nuclear and Hormuz technicals. Brent has crashed from Monday’s $114 high to $106.52 (off about 6% on the day, off 8% from the overnight peak), WTI is at $102.76, the VIX has unwound to 16.73, and S&P futures are +0.77% with the Nasdaq +1.28% on the AMD halo. We are constructive on the day but cautious on the durability of the Iran memo, because the same 14-point framework was the basis of Sunday’s proposal that became Tuesday’s UAE drone strike on Fujairah. The market is pricing 70% probability the memo lands by Friday. We are at 55%.
The information sequence is what matters today. AMD ran into the print up 64% in April, and the binary that desks were trading was gross margin. Lisa Su delivered a Q1 GM at 54.1%, in line, with a Q2 guide at 54.5%, fifty basis points above consensus, and the data center sub-segment growing 57% on a comp that was already 100%+ a year earlier. The MI355 ramp commentary was unambiguous, and Su flagged “second-half shipments of Meta chips” with the OpenAI 6GW commitment recompiled into the FY27 build plan rather than backloaded. SMCI separately reported earlier in the AMC slate, with non-GAAP EPS at $0.84 against $0.62 consensus and Q4 revenue guide at $11 to $12.5 billion (well above $9.8 billion expected), driving the stock +18% after-hours. Read across, the AI infrastructure print is doing the structural work: AMD’s data center revenue is now nearly $24 billion annualized at 57% growth, SMCI is annualized at $44 billion, and ARM reports tonight after the close. The entire AI capex worry that desks carried into Q1 (whether DeepSeek-style efficiency had pulled forward demand) is now off the table for two full quarters. Our 12-month AMD PT moves from $215 to $260, the call vertical we recommended last week is +110% mark-to-market, and we are letting the spread run to the June expiry rather than rolling.
Three things into Wednesday:
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AMD is the print of the year for semis, and the multiple has room to expand. Q1 revenue $10.25B (+38% y/y), data center +57%, Q2 guide $11.2B (+18% above $9.5B Q1), full-year revenue trajectory now firmly above $43B. The stock has run 64% in April but the multiple is still 38x forward EPS against NVDA at 35x, and the relative value case has just been argued by Lisa Su’s GM trajectory. We hold the long, lift the short put leg of the May 16 $200 strike, and roll the June $215/$240 call vertical out to July $250/$280. The MI400 commentary in 2H gives the story a second leg into NVDA’s May 28 print.
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The Iran memo is the single biggest peace-versus-war binary the tape has seen since April 8. A signed memo by Friday means Brent goes to the upper $90s, the energy long book unwinds 8% to 10%, and the defense basket gets repriced 4% to 6% lower. A failed memo (third 14-point framework collapse in three weeks) means Brent re-tests $115 and the VIX is back through 20. The asymmetry sits with a 30-day standstill that locks neither side, leaving Hormuz transit fragile and the $108 to $112 range as the new norm. We are trimming half the calendar-spread reversal we put on Tuesday and replacing it with a Brent September $95 / $115 strangle, paying about $4.20.
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The hyperscaler capex print has flipped the equity tape constructive. With AMD’s beat coming after MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, and ORCL all confirming FY26 capex above $710 billion in aggregate, and now PLTR’s $7.66B FY guide and AMD’s $11.2B Q2 guide layering on top, the AI infrastructure thesis has its strongest week of confirmation since November 2024. Position adds: long basket of AMD, NVDA, AVGO, ARM (into tonight), MU, with funding from a partial trim in defense.
The Macro Print
What Already Posted This Week
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (April) | 52.7 (matches March, 18th straight expansion month) |
| ISM Mfg Prices Paid (April) | 84.6 (highest since April 2022) |
| ISM Services PMI (April) | 51.2, prices sub-index 67.3 |
| JOLTS (March, posted Tue) | 6.9M openings unchanged, hires +655K, quits 3.0M (revised up) |
| PLTR Q1 | $1.63B rev (+85%), US commercial +133%, FY26 guide $7.66B |
| AMD Q1 | $10.25B rev (+38%), data center +57%, Q2 guide $11.2B |
| SMCI Q3 | $10.2B rev (+123%), GM 10.1%, FY26 guide $38.9-40.4B |
Today’s Calendar
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus / Note |
|---|---|---|
| 7:00 | MBA Mortgage Apps | Refis sensitive to 10Y dip |
| 8:15 | ADP Employment (April) | +85K consensus (March +62K) |
| 8:30 | Productivity (Q1 prelim) | +0.8% q/q |
| 8:30 | Unit Labor Costs (Q1) | +3.5% |
| 8:30 | Disney Q2 (DIS) | Reported, beat: $25.17B / $1.57 EPS |
| 13:00 | 10Y Treasury auction ($42B) | Tail watch, Fujairah-related risk premium |
| 14:00 | Atlanta Fed Bostic speaks | Hawkish lean on inflation |
| 16:05 | Uber Q1 (UBER) | Reported pre-mkt: $13.2B rev, GB $53.7B |
| 16:05 | Arm Q4 FY26 (ARM) | $1.05B rev, $0.42 EPS, royalties watch |
| 16:05 | AppLovin Q1 (APP) | $1.77B rev, $3.40 EPS, +52% growth |
| 16:05 | DoorDash Q1 (DASH) | $3.05B rev, $0.42 EPS, grocery watch |
| 16:05 | Novo Nordisk Q1 | Wegovy/Ozempic vol commentary |
Our take on ADP: Last month’s +62K headline was a rounding error around zero, with small business adding 112K and mid-size firms shedding 53K combined. A +85K consensus assumes the small-business hiring impulse holds against the tariff and energy drag on transport and manufacturing. A print under +50K combined with the Fujairah strike one day prior is the bear setup that gets the Friday NFP whisper toward sub-100K. A print above +110K with services bright spots traps the curve: front-end pricing flips toward zero cuts in 2026 and the Warsh confirmation calculus shifts. The internals matter more than the headline, with goods-producing payrolls the cleanest read on the EU auto tariff bite and Hormuz freight-cost passthrough.
Our take on the 10Y auction: Yesterday’s tail context matters. The 3Y auction posted with a 0.4 bps tail and a 2.46x bid-to-cover, fine. Today’s 10Y at $42B size into a 4.42% yield, a 50 bps rally from last week’s 4.51% high, with the Iran memo a binary 24 hours away. We expect a 1 to 2 bps tail and a soft indirect bid (foreign demand has been wobbly with Brent at $113). A clean stop-through is the signal for a structurally lower 10Y into May CPI. A 3+ bps tail forces a re-test of 4.55% and prints a sharp curve steepening that hurts long-duration tech for 48 hours.
The AMD Print and Why It Matters
The Numbers
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.84B | $10.25B | Beat by $410M |
| EPS (adj) | $1.28 | $1.37 | Beat by 9c |
| Data Center Rev | $5.6B | $5.8B | Beat by $200M |
| Data Center y/y | +51.5% | +57% | Crushed |
| Client Rev | $2.3B | $2.4B | Beat |
| Q1 Gross Margin | 54.0% | 54.1% | In line |
| Q2 Rev Guide (mid) | $9.84B | $10.9-11.5B | Raised by ~$1.4B |
| Q2 Gross Margin Guide | 54.0% | 54.5% | Beat by 50 bps |
Our Take: This is the cleanest read on AI infrastructure spend that we have had since NVDA’s October print. The data center segment is now annualizing at $23.2 billion at a +57% growth rate, with Q2 guide implying further acceleration. The Q2 revenue guide at the midpoint of $11.2B is +9% q/q, which if NVDA prints in line on May 28 puts the combined data center revenue run-rate at roughly $230 billion annualized for the GPU-plus-XPU complex. Gross margin at 54.5% guide vs 54.0% consensus closes the AMD-vs-NVDA margin gap by 50 bps in a single quarter. Lisa Su’s commentary on MI355 ramp was the cleanest CEO-tone read on AI demand we have heard this cycle. With the OpenAI 6GW deal and Meta 6GW deal both confirmed in the build plan, the FY27 setup carries the multiple. PT $260, position bias long, sized at 1.2% of NAV gross.
Lisa Su’s Tone
The earnings call language tracked closely with the deck: “Server CPU market growth above 35%,” “CPU share ratio at 1:1 in Q4 2026,” and “Meta chip shipments anticipated in 2H 2026.” That last line specifically de-risks the FY27 build for Meta, which had been the sell-side worry given the Reality Labs capex discipline rumor. ARM tonight will get a similar bid. The relative pair into May 28 is long AMD / short any auto-exposed semi (TXN, MCHP, ON), and that relative trade is up about 4% in two days.
The Iran Memo and Hormuz Tape Day 3
The memo language reported by Axios overnight is the most forward US-Iran framework since the war started in late February. The 14 points include: a public declaration the war is over; a 30-day negotiation window on a final agreement; an Iranian moratorium on nuclear enrichment; a US commitment to lift sanctions and release frozen assets; bilateral lifting of restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit; and a structured diplomatic track through Geneva starting around May 22. Witkoff and Kushner are the negotiators. Pakistan-mediated technicals are layered on top. The US expects Iranian responses on key points “in the next 48 hours.”
The market is pricing this at roughly 70% probability of a signed memo by Friday. We are at 55%, for three reasons. First, the Sunday 14-point proposal (which became Tuesday’s Fujairah strike) and the new memo share roughly nine of fourteen points, which means Iran’s response is repackaging an existing framework. The new five points are the binding ones. Second, the kinetic clock has not stopped. CENTCOM’s six-boat sinking on Tuesday and a continuing Project Freedom escort schedule means the memo has to survive any further Iranian provocation through Friday. Third, the UAE airspace closure earlier this week and the ADNOC Fujairah outage mean the GCC has not yet been brought into the memo’s framework, which is operationally awkward.
The base case is the memo is signed in some form, but contingent rather than binding. The market is treating it as binding. This is why Brent has crashed from $114 to $106.52 (a roughly $8 move) and the front-month curve has steepened sharply in backwardation. We are reversing half the calendar-spread reversal we put on Tuesday morning and replacing with a strangle, because the binary tail risk both ways is now worth more than directional exposure.
Two market-moving headlines we expect today:
- White House readout on Iranian response, expected mid-morning ET (10:00 to 12:00)
- Trump statement on the memo, tone matters more than substance. A “Iran is being smart” framing is bullish risk; an “Iran has 24 hours” framing is bearish risk.
Disney and Uber Earnings Recap
DIS Q2 Print (Pre-Mkt, 6:40 AM ET)
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.78B | $25.17B | Beat by $390M |
| EPS (adj) | $1.49 | $1.57 | Beat by 8c |
| Entertainment Rev | $11.0B | $11.7B | Beat |
| Streaming Op Income | $310M | $582M | Beat by 88% |
| Experiences Rev | $9.0B | $9.5B | Beat |
| FY26 Adj EPS Growth Guide | +10% | +12% (reaffirmed) | In line |
Our Take: D’Amaro’s first quarter as CEO is the cleanest beat on the streaming bucket since DTC inflected to profitability in Q3 last year. The +88% leap in entertainment streaming op income to $582 million crushes the modeled $310 million. The Experiences division at +7% revenue is in line, but the operating income +5% on declining park visitation in the East Coast suggests price/mix is doing the work, which is sustainable. The FY26 +12% adj EPS guide reaffirmed (vs Street modeling +10% at the print) is the underline. PT moves from $115 to $128. The stock is +6% pre-market at $107.
UBER Q1 Print (Pre-Mkt, 7:30 AM ET)
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.4B | $13.2B | Miss by $200M |
| Gross Bookings | $52.8B | $53.7B | Beat by $900M |
| Adj EBITDA | $2.35B | $2.5B | Beat by $150M |
| Trips | 3.5B | 3.6B | Beat |
| Q2 GB Guide (high) | $54.5B | $57.75B | Crushed |
Our Take: Revenue miss on FX, Khosrowshahi flagged “weather, geopolitical tensions, and gas price volatility.” The take rate question gets reframed as: gross bookings beat, adj EBITDA beat, Q2 GB guide $56.25 to $57.75B vs $54.5B consensus is the structural read. The robotaxi commentary in the call (Waymo expansion, Tesla integration timeline) is the swing factor for the multiple. Stock +10% pre-market at $98. We add to long.
Tonight’s AMC Slate
| Company | Cons Rev | Cons EPS | Implied Move | Our View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | $1.05B | $0.42 | ~9% | Royalty mix watch, AI design wins beat |
| AppLovin (APP) | $1.77B | $3.40 | ~12% | AXON 2.0 monetization, mobile gaming flat |
| DoorDash (DASH) | $3.05B | $0.42 | ~10% | Grocery delivery losses widen, 22% YTD |
| Novo Nordisk | EU close | — | ~5% | Wegovy/Ozempic Q1 vol vs LLY |
ARM detail: Royalty rate has been the bear case, with Cambridge management running a take-or-pay-style negotiation that has frustrated TXN. Q4 FY26 fiscal year-end, so this is the cap to a year that has the v9 ramp printing meaningfully. The AMD print tonight reads through positively because the Neoverse v2 designs in AMD’s data center mix are a royalty tailwind. Buy ARM into print.
APP detail: Gross margin is the pressure point. AppLovin trades at 22x forward EBITDA, and the AXON algorithm’s mobile ad take rate is the multiple. Q1 EPS guide already aggressive, +52% expected. We are flat into the print, willing to add long at $580 (if down 5% post-print) or short at $680 (if up 6%).
DASH detail: Grocery delivery is the swing factor. DoorDash has run a -22% YTD print on grocery margin compression. Stock is now at $112 pre-print. We are short DASH via a put spread, sized 0.3% of NAV. The thesis is that Uber’s Q1 mobility outperformance comes partially at DASH’s expense.
Trade Ideas
▲ Long AMD via Call Vertical Roll
Roll the June $215/$240 call vertical to July $250/$280, paying about $5.40 net debit. The MI400 ramp commentary in 2H gives the story a second leg into NVDA’s May 28 print. Position size 1.2% of NAV gross.
Risk: A NVDA miss on May 28 reprices the GPU complex 8% to 10%. The vertical caps loss at $5.40.
▼ Reverse Half Brent Calendar Spread, Replace with Strangle
Lift half the August/June calendar reversal we put on Tuesday at +$3.20 mark. Buy a Brent September $95 put / $115 call strangle for ~$4.20, on the binary nature of the Iran memo by Friday. Position size 0.4% of NAV.
Risk: A range-bound Brent at $105 to $108 through Friday collapses both legs. The strangle is sized to be losable.
▲ Long ARM Into Print via Call Spread
Buy ARM May 16 $185/$200 call spread at ~$3.80 net debit. The AMD data center print reads through positively (Neoverse v2 royalty tailwind), and Cambridge management’s tone on v9 has been the swing factor. Implied move 9% covers the binary, the call spread caps loss. Position size 0.3% of NAV.
Risk: A flat royalty rate guide compresses the multiple 8%. Stop on a 4% move lower post-print.
▲ Long DIS via Stock + Short Put
Stock at $107 pre-mkt. Add to long, sell the May 16 $100 put for $0.85. The streaming inflection is now structurally confirmed at +88% op income growth, and the Experiences price/mix is sustainable. PT $128.
Risk: A US-China tariff escalation hits Shanghai Disney and Disney Cruise booking velocity. Idiosyncratic.
▼ Short DASH via Put Spread
Buy DASH May 16 $108/$98 put spread at ~$2.40 net debit. Grocery delivery margin compression and Uber’s Q1 mobility share gain at DASH’s expense are the thesis. Implied move 10% covers the binary.
Risk: A clean pricing power narrative on grocery offsets the margin bear case. Stop on a 5% move higher post-print.
— Long VIX June 18 $20/$26 Call Spread (Trim, Don’t Close)
VIX has compressed to 16.73 from Tuesday’s 18.29 on the Iran memo headline. Our June 18 $20/$26 call spread from Monday at $1.45 entry is at $1.10 mark. We trim half, hold half. The binary on the Iran memo by Friday and the May 13 CPI print are the two tails that make this spread asymmetric again.
Risk: A signed memo on Wednesday-Thursday and a soft CPI on May 13 collapses VIX to 13. Position now sized at 0.15% of NAV.
▲ STAY LONG PLTR (Reiterate)
Tuesday’s print and our long position are the mark we hold against. Stock at $148 pre-mkt, +1.4%. PT $215. We hold the core long with the June $200/$220 call vertical overlay funded by the $145 short put. The +120% US commercial guide is the structural underline.
Risk: Burry-style short escalation on positioning or a softer Q2 from peers (CRWD May 28). The call vertical caps loss.
▲ Long ARM Basket Pair Trade (NVDA / AMD / ARM / MU)
The AI capex print confirmation runs through the entire basket. Pair: long the basket at 25 bps each, fund with a 1% trim of LMT and NOC (defense gets a 4% to 6% repricing if the Iran memo lands by Friday). Net add: 0%, gross: +1%.
Risk: A failed memo + a kinetic Iran response keeps defense at war-elevated levels for two more weeks.
Signal Tracker
| Signal | Status | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| AMD Q1 +38%, DC +57% | AI capex print confirmation | BULL |
| AMD Q2 guide $11.2B | Re-rates the multiple basis | BULL |
| AMD pre-mkt +18-20% | Positioning at peak with capacity to absorb | BULL |
| SMCI GM 10.1% (vs 6.4%) | Margin inflection, Tier-1 demand | BULL |
| US-Iran 14-point memo “closing” | First binding framework | BULL for risk |
| Brent crashes to $106 (-6%) | Peace premium unwinding | BEAR for energy |
| VIX 16.73 (-8.5%) | Vol regime shift back to normal | BULL |
| 10Y at 4.42% (down 9 bps) | Rate cut bid back on, modestly | BULL for duration |
| ADP today, +85K consensus | Soft labor read into NFP Friday | NEUTRAL |
| 10Y auction $42B today | Tail watch, indirect bid sensitive to Brent | NEUTRAL |
| Apple/Intel chip talks | INTC +13% on TSMC diversification | BULL for INTC |
| Hyperscaler capex $710B+ for 2026 | AI infra demand intact | BULL |
| ARM tonight | Royalty inflection on v9 | BULL |
| Trump-Xi summit May 14-15 | Tariff cap into Q3 | BULL |
| EU auto tariffs at 25% | EU OEM headwind | BEAR |
Assessment: 9 BULL / 2 BEAR / 4 NEUTRAL. The signal mix has flipped sharply constructive in 24 hours. The AMD print is the structural anchor, the Iran memo is the cyclical catalyst, and the rates / vol unwind layers risk-on across the curve. We hold the book at +5% net long gross, raise position size on AMD, ARM, PLTR, DIS, UBER, and trim defense and energy. We are watching the 10Y auction at 1:00 PM and the Trump tone on Iran into the close.
What to Watch — Rest of Week
Wednesday May 6 (Today)
- AMD reaction (+18-20% pre-mkt). Watch the cap-weighted move on AVGO, MRVL, ARM, MU.
- Disney +6%, Uber +10% pre-mkt.
- Tonight: ARM, AppLovin, DoorDash, Novo Nordisk earnings.
- ADP Employment April (8:15 AM, consensus +85K)
- 10Y Treasury auction $42B (1:00 PM). Tail watch.
- Productivity Q1 prelim (8:30 AM, +0.8% q/q)
- White House readout on Iranian response to memo, expected through mid-morning
- Bostic Atlanta Fed speaks (2:00 PM)
Thursday May 7
- COIN, ABNB, AFRM, DDOG earnings. Crypto multiples, summer travel, BNPL credit, observability spend.
- Initial Jobless Claims.
- 30Y Treasury auction (1:00 PM). Last week’s tail was 4.5 bps, this week could be wider given Iran headline risk.
- Mercedes-Benz Q1 reporting (BMO European time). First read on EU auto tariff bite.
Friday May 8
- April NFP. Consensus +120K, UR 4.3%. First clean read after labor market resilience held into April. A sub-100K print with UR to 4.4% gets the Miran dissent into the regional Fed presidents’ camp by the June meeting. With ISM Mfg Prices Paid at 84.6 and Brent now at $106 (down from $113), a hot AHE print of +0.4% m/m remains the bigger risk.
- Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary May).
- Consumer Credit (March).
Key Dates Ahead
- May 11 (week of): Senate full vote on Warsh Fed chair confirmation. We model 53 to 56 votes.
- May 13: CPI April. Consensus 3.0% headline / 2.9% core. Cleveland Nowcast 3.6%. With Brent crash from $113 to $106, this number gets easier on the energy passthrough side.
- May 14 to 15: Trump-Xi summit, Beijing. First US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade.
- May 15: Powell steps back to governor; Warsh likely sworn in as chair.
- May 21: OPEC+ ministerial. First full ministerial without UAE engagement. Production response to Fujairah strike is the structural read.
- May 22: Geneva US-Iran technical talks (Phase 2 of the memo, if signed).
- May 28: NVDA Q1 earnings. Index-level event, AMD’s print just reset the bar.
This note reflects information available as of May 6, 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Pre-market futures continue to trade. For internal use only. Not investment advice.