Trump-Xi Day 1: Hormuz Must Stay Open, 200 Boeing Jets, Soybeans + LNG, Warsh Chair 54-45, CSCO Rips +15%, Records Again.

Thursday pre-market, 8:30 AM ET, with US futures bid across the board and the Trump-Xi summit Day 1 readout already setting the global tape. The set-up overnight is the cleanest risk-on rotation we have seen since the May 2 NFP soft-print: S&P 500 e-mini futures at 7,491.50, up 0.29 percent, on pace to open at a fresh record above Wednesday’s close of 7,444.25; Nasdaq 100 e-mini at 29,522.75, up 0.15 percent, also pointing to a record open; Dow futures leading at 50,203, up 0.83 percent or 411 points, on the Boeing tape and the Walmart day-of bid. The catalyst stack is dense and asymmetric. President Trump and President Xi closed the bilateral meeting at the Great Hall of the People after two hours and fifteen minutes, with the joint White House readout confirming that the two sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” and that Xi expressed direct interest in buying more American crude and LNG to reduce China’s structural reliance on the chokepoint. Trump told Fox News in the post-meeting interview that Xi committed to buy 200 Boeing 737 aircraft, ramp soybean purchases, and lean on Tehran on the Iran agenda. Kevin Warsh was confirmed Wednesday as the eleventh chair of the Federal Reserve by a 54 to 45 vote, the closest Fed chair confirmation in the modern era, with only Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman crossing the aisle and three Republicans absent. Warsh is sworn in Friday at Powell’s departure, and his first FOMC meeting is June 16 and 17. Cisco printed Wednesday AMC at the strongest beat-and-raise of the cycle so far: revenue of 15.84 billion versus 15.56 billion consensus, EPS of 1.06 versus 1.03 consensus, FY26 AI infrastructure order book lifted to roughly 9 billion from 5 billion (a 4.5x of FY25), Q4 revenue guide of 16.7 to 16.9 billion versus 15.7 billion consensus, FY26 revenue guide of 62.8 to 63.0 billion, and a workforce action of just under 4,000 roles to fund the AI pivot. CSCO is up about 15 percent in after-hours and traded as high as plus 19 percent intraday late session, on pace for its sharpest single-day rally since 2002 if it holds through the cash open. Brent sits at 105.87, off Wednesday’s 107 ceiling on the Hormuz language; WTI is at 101.40. The dollar is firm for a third session at DXY 98.49, gold is bid plus 0.44 percent at 4,707 on the geopolitical wraparound and the curve carry, and Bitcoin is holding the 80,000 handle at 80,631. The 10Y is at 4.47 percent, two basis points wider on the day and now ten basis points wider on the week post the CPI and PPI stack, with the 2Y at 4.01 percent.

Three things to internalize before the open:

1. CSCO printed the cleanest beat-and-raise of the cycle and lifted the FY26 AI infrastructure order book to roughly 9 billion from the prior 5 billion, which mechanically resets the AI router and Silicon One demand curve and is the structural validation for the NVDA May 20 print at the index-level event. The 1.9 billion in Q3 AI orders alone is up from 2.1 billion the prior quarter and now totals 5.3 billion year to date, and the company is guiding to about 9 billion for the full year against the prior 5 billion guide. Networking revenue at 8.82 billion was about 350 million ahead of the 8.47 billion consensus and the strongest single-segment print in five years. Splunk added 500 new logos in H1 FY26 and is tracking 1,000 by year end, which is the cleanest cross-validation of the hyperscaler order conversion against the legacy enterprise base. We had no position into the print but we are leaning into the read-across on the open: we add to the SMH June 19 310 to 330 call spread sized 0.10 percent NAV at the 4.45 mark (now at roughly 4.70 indicated pre-open), taking the position to 0.40 percent NAV, and we open a new ANET May 30 145 to 160 call vertical at 1.85 net debit sized 0.10 percent NAV as the cleanest single-name expression of the hyperscaler routing budget read-through ahead of the May 28 print. We do not chase CSCO outright on the open after a plus 15 percent gap, but we open a CSCO June 19 80 call calendar against the May 22 short call at 0.95 net debit sized 0.05 percent NAV to express the post-gap vol crush.

2. The Trump-Xi summit Day 1 deliverable stack is materially better than our base case at Wednesday close, with the Hormuz “must remain open” language alone worth a structural compression in the energy memo path, and the right structural read is to monetize a portion of the energy long book and roll proceeds into the BA call vertical extension plus a new XLI BMO collar. Our Wednesday morning base case was an 86 percent probability of the Boeing announcement and a 12 percent probability of explicit Hormuz language from Xi; the morning readout delivered both, with the soybean and LNG commitments as bonus deliverables. The Hormuz language is the bigger signal: it moves Beijing from the long-held neutral posture (i.e., “China supports peace”) to an explicit alignment with the US-Bahrain UN draft resolution that now has 112 country co-sponsors, leaving Russia as the sole P5 veto holder of consequence. We trim the XLE June 19 99 to 108 call spread from 0.60 percent NAV to 0.40 percent NAV on the open at the 3.15 mark (up 24 percent from Sunday entry) and roll the proceeds into the BA June 19 230 to 260 call vertical, adding 0.10 percent NAV at the 5.80 indicated mark and taking total BA sizing to 0.30 percent NAV ahead of the Friday Day 2 joint statement. We open a new XLI June 30 collar at 145 call long vs 138 put short for a near-zero cost expression of the cyclicals breadth on the tariff truce extension.

3. The Warsh confirmation at 54 to 45 is the closest Fed chair vote in the modern era, and combined with the PPI and CPI stack the cleanest structural read is to hold the duration short via the 30Y line and roll the 2Y put spread to a wider strike on the front of the curve. The vote count came in three votes higher on the chair line than the 51 governor count on Tuesday, with the three previously absent Republicans returning for the second vote and one independent flip in the dovish-tail direction not materializing in the cash session. Warsh’s confirmation speech remarks were measured and conviction-light on rate path commentary, which is the exact tape the curve modeled at the chair-vote close, and the front end re-priced the December hike probability to 33 percent (up from 30 percent Wednesday and 18 percent Tuesday) on the Warsh handoff. The June 16-17 FOMC is Warsh’s first dot plot, and we model two fewer cuts than the March SEP path with 70 percent confidence on the post-PPI dot-plot reset. We trim half the 2Y June 17 4.10 to 4.30 put spread at the 24-tick mark (up from 17 ticks Wednesday entry) and roll the remaining half into the 2Y June 17 4.20 to 4.40 put spread at 14 ticks net debit, holding 30Y short via TYZ at the 5.04 percent line, sized 0.10 percent DV01.

What Posted Overnight

CSCO Q3 FY26 Print (Wednesday AMC, 4:05 PM ET)

Our take on CSCO: This is the cleanest single-print read on the AI infrastructure order conversion since the AVGO Q1 print in January, and the read-through is structural rather than tactical. Three things to lock in. First, the FY26 AI order book lift to roughly 9 billion from 5 billion is not a Q3 timing artifact; the company specified the lift reflects hyperscaler order commitments under master purchase agreements through fiscal year end, with the bulk of the Silicon One configuration mix loaded into Q4 and Q1 FY27. Second, the Q4 revenue guide at 16.7 to 16.9 billion is 1.0 billion above consensus and the largest single-quarter beat-and-raise spread in five years, which materially de-risks the FY26 number and pulls forward the FY27 trajectory. Third, the gross margin walk at 67.6 percent is below the 68.0 percent print model but consistent with the memory cost pressure and the Splunk cloud subscription mix transition that management flagged at the Q2 print. The 4,000-role restructuring is the structural unlock for the FY27 operating leverage line. The read-across is unambiguously bullish for ANET (May 28 AMC), AVGO (June 5 AMC), JNPR, and the SMH cohort into NVDA May 20.

Trump-Xi Summit Day 1 Readout (Beijing, 9:00 AM Beijing Time)

Our take on Day 1: The deliverable mix is materially better than we modeled at Wednesday close on three vectors. First, the Hormuz language is the bigger geopolitical signal, not the Boeing number. Beijing moving to explicit alignment with the US-Bahrain UN draft (which now has 112 country co-sponsors) crowds Russia into a P5 veto isolation and structurally compresses the Q3 memo tail. Second, the energy line is the second-cleanest read: Xi seeking to diversify Chinese crude and LNG away from the Hormuz chokepoint is a years-long structural US export-capacity tailwind. Third, the Boeing number at 200 units came in at the low end of the CSIS 200-to-500 range, which is the only place the summit modestly undershot. The Taiwan warning is the only meaningful bear-side news: Xi’s “Thucydides Trap” framing and the explicit “must handle with prudence” language is the cleanest reminder that Day 2 joint statement risk is asymmetric to the tail.

Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45 (Senate Wednesday)

Our take on the Warsh path: The chair count came in three higher than the governor count, with no surprise dovish-tail flip and conviction-light first remarks. The structural read is that the hawkish handoff is now fully priced into the front end and that the asymmetric risk is the dot-plot reset at the June FOMC. We model two fewer cuts in the June SEP versus the March SEP at 70 percent confidence, with the 2026 median moving from 75 basis points of additional easing to 25 basis points and the longer-run terminal moving from 3.00 to 3.25 percent. The right structural read is to hold duration short across the curve, roll the 2Y put spread up, and let the 30Y short carry into the dot plot.

Iran / Hormuz Box Score (Thursday 8:30 AM ET)

Memo Probability Path (Updated Thursday Post Trump-Xi)

The path inflected higher for the first time in eight sessions, reflecting the Trump-Xi Hormuz language and the move of Beijing toward de facto alignment with the UN draft resolution. We are not chasing the memo probability higher into Day 2; the structural read is that the path is now bounded between 22 and 30 percent through the OPEC+ May 21 ministerial, and the right play is to hold an energy long that is sized for the kinetic baseline rather than the headline tail.

Asia and Europe Overnight

Asia closed broadly green on the summit risk-on. Nikkei printed another modest record, Hang Seng was contained ahead of the Day 2 joint statement, and Kosdaq led the region at plus 1.31 percent on the CSCO AI halo into the memory and equipment cohort. Europe is opening higher across the major bourses, with the DAX and CAC each up about 0.5 percent on the cyclicals and autos read-through to the tariff truce extension expected Friday. The Stoxx 600 sector breadth is positive (10 of 11 sectors green) with energy and miners leading and only utilities red.

Bonus Tape Read: BABA Q4 FY26 (Reported Wed AMC)

Our take on BABA: The print is the cleanest single-print read on the China cloud and AI infrastructure capex ramp since the November 2024 reset. Cloud at plus 38 percent and external customer growth at plus 40 percent is the cleanest validation of the AI capex flywheel; AI revenue triple-digit for the eleventh straight quarter is the structural anchor. The profit line at minus 99.7 percent is the noise rather than the signal, reflecting accelerated AI capex deployment that the market is now pricing as a multi-year reinvestment story rather than an earnings miss. Our JD long vs BABA short pair entered Wednesday at one-to-one notional is now down about 5 percent on the pair (JD plus 0.8 percent vs BABA plus 6.5 percent AH); we close the pair on the open at the minus 5 percent stop and book the loss, then re-evaluate after the Friday Day 2 joint statement.

Trump-Xi Day 2 Friday | What to Watch

The summit Day 2 opens 9:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow (9:00 PM Thursday ET) with the joint statement window late morning Beijing time and the press conference at 2:00 PM Beijing (2:00 AM ET Friday). The Day 1 readout suggests the joint statement will be the structural moment of the summit rather than the bilateral, with three open items that did not close on Day 1.

Our take on Day 2: The base case is a structurally constructive joint statement with the tariff truce extension as the clearest single deliverable, the AI chip framework as the highest-tail asymmetric upside, and the Taiwan language as the only meaningful tail risk to the downside. We hold the SMH and BA call verticals through the Day 2 readout and let the Friday cash session re-price the trade-war risk premium. The SPY June 30 720 to 700 put spread opened Wednesday at 5.10 net debit is now at 4.20 (down 18 percent on the records into Day 1 risk-on); we hold the hedge through Day 2 and re-evaluate on the Friday close.

Macro Calendar | Today and Tomorrow

AMAT and DE Preview | Thursday AMC

Applied Materials reports fiscal Q2 2026 results at 4:30 PM ET Thursday on consensus of 2.66 EPS on 7.69 billion in revenue. The Street is on the lookout for confirmation of the 20-percent semiconductor equipment business growth CFO Brice Hill flagged at the Q1 print, and CSCO’s reset of the FY26 AI order book to roughly 9 billion materially tilts the read-through bullish for AMAT’s hyperscaler and HBM equipment lines. China revenue at about 28 to 32 percent of mix is the binding macro overlay; the Trump-Xi Day 2 framework on AI chip export licensing is the tail catalyst. We have no position into the print but are watching for a sub-1-percent pre-print drift, which would unlock the AMAT May 22 195 to 215 call spread at 2.10 net debit at 0.10 percent NAV.

Deere reports Q2 fiscal 2026 at 4:00 PM ET on consensus of 5.85 EPS on 13.0 billion. The structural read is whether the China soybean and beef commitments announced on Day 1 of the Trump-Xi summit translate to a Q3 ag commodity passthrough into the equipment order book. We have no position into the print and we are not opening a position pre-call; the read-through to ADM, BG, and CAG is the cleaner expression of the agricultural delivery rather than DE outright.

WMT BMO Preview | Tariff Passthrough Binary

Walmart is expected to report Thursday BMO on consensus of 0.61 EPS on 169.0 billion in revenue, though some sell-side calendars have flagged a possible delay to 5/15 or 5/21 given internal reporting timing changes. Our model is a Thursday print at 8:00 AM ET. The binary into the print is the Q2 tariff guide rather than the Q1 comp print; the April comp read against Target’s hot soft-discretionary print last week is the cleanest read on the US consumer. The 3.8 percent CPI plus the 1.4 percent PPI carry-through is the macro overlay, and the Trump-Xi tariff truce extension expected at the Friday joint statement is the structural tail. We have no position into the print but watching for a sub-1-percent pre-print drift to unlock the WMT June 6 90 to 100 call spread at 1.45 net debit at 0.10 percent NAV.

Trade Ideas | Sized for the Summit Day 1 Risk-On + CSCO Cohort Reset

Long SMH June 19 $310 / $330 Call Spread (Add)

Add 0.10 percent NAV at the 4.70 indicated mark on the open, taking total sizing to 0.40 percent NAV from the Wednesday 4.45 add and the Tuesday CEG roll at 4.20 entry. The CSCO 9 billion FY26 AI infrastructure order book reset plus the Kosdaq plus 1.31 percent overnight on the equipment halo plus the NVDA six-day run with Huang in Beijing is the cleanest cross-confirmation of the AI demand ramp into the May 20 print. PT 330 spread max; trim at 6.00 mark on the Friday Day 2 readout. Risk: NVDA print May 20 walks back the Blackwell ramp guidance. Vertical caps loss at the blended cost basis of about 4.45 across the three adds.

Long ANET May 30 $145 / $160 Call Vertical (New)

Open new at 1.85 net debit, sized 0.10 percent NAV. The cleanest single-name expression of the CSCO AI router order-conversion read-through ahead of the May 28 AMC print. ANET is the highest-correlation single-name peer to Silicon One in the hyperscaler routing budget cohort. PT 4.00 mark on a May 28 beat-and-raise. Risk: ANET’s Meta-only hyperscaler concentration leaves it exposed to a single-customer capex pause. Vertical caps loss at 1.85.

Long CSCO June 19 $80 Call vs Short May 22 $80 Call (Calendar, New)

Open new at 0.95 net debit, sized 0.05 percent NAV. The post-gap implied vol crush in the May 22 expiry combined with the FY27 forward-revenue reset is the cleanest single-name calendar setup. We do not chase CSCO outright after a plus 15 percent gap; the calendar harvests the front-month vol crush. PT 1.60 on time decay; stop on 0.55. Risk: CSCO gives back the gap into May 22 expiry. Calendar caps loss at 0.95.

Long XLE June 19 $99 / $108 Call Spread + Short May $96 Put (Trim)

Trim from 0.60 percent NAV to 0.40 percent NAV on the open at the 3.15 mark (up 24 percent from Sunday entry). The Trump-Xi Hormuz “must remain open” language reduces the asymmetric upside tail, and we monetize the move while keeping the kinetic-baseline carry intact. PT 108 spread max on a flare on OPEC+ May 21. Risk: A surprise Trump tabling of a stripped-down MoU at the Friday Day 2 joint statement collapses the front of the energy curve. Structure caps loss at 96 strike assignment.

Long BA June 19 $230 / $260 Call Vertical (Add)

Add 0.10 percent NAV at the 5.80 indicated mark on the open, taking total sizing to 0.30 percent NAV from the Wednesday entry at 4.10 net debit. The 200-jet announcement is the low end of the CSIS range but the structural deliverable is intact, and the Friday Day 2 joint statement carries an additional 250-jet upside option per CSIS. PT 260 spread max on a Friday Day 2 expansion. Risk: Iran agenda re-crowds tariffs on Day 2 and the second tranche of jet orders is deferred. Vertical caps loss at blended 4.95.

Long XLI June 30 $145 Call vs Short $138 Put (Collar, New)

Open new collar for near-zero net cost on the open; long 145 call at 1.85 mark, short 138 put at 1.75 mark, net 0.10 debit. Sized 0.20 percent NAV notional. The cyclicals breadth on the Trump-Xi tariff truce extension expected at Friday Day 2 is the structural tape; the collar harvests the upside without paying premium and is funded by the protective put short below the entry. PT 4.00 on the call; stop on a $138 print pre-Friday Day 2. Risk: Surprise Taiwan headline on Day 2 reprices the global trade premium. Short put caps downside at 138 assignment.

Long 2Y June 17 $4.20 / $4.40 Put Spread (Roll)

Roll half the 4.10/4.30 spread at 24 ticks (up from 17 ticks Wednesday entry, plus 41 percent) into the wider 4.20/4.40 spread at 14 ticks net debit. The PPI shock plus Warsh chair confirmation plus the conviction-light first remarks is the cleanest carry into the June dot plot. PT 22 ticks on the rolled spread; stop on a sub-2.70 percent core CPI revision or a dovish Warsh speech. Risk: A dovish Warsh confirmation speech Friday resets the front-end repricing. Vertical caps loss at 14 ticks net.

Short 30Y June via TYZ Pair (Hold)

Hold from Wednesday entry at 5.02 percent yield, mark 5.04 percent (small loss on the day; sized 0.10 percent DV01). The PPI shock plus Warsh chair vote plus the index-level rebalance pressure on the long end is the structural overlay. PT 5.20 percent; stop 4.92 percent. Risk: A flight-to-quality bid on Iran escalation could compress the 30Y to 4.85 percent. Sized to be losable.

Long Brent August $95 / $108 Strangle (Trim)

Trim half from the 5.95 mark (up 38 percent from Friday entry at 4.30) into the 5.30 mark indicated on the Trump-Xi Hormuz compression of the upside wing. Hold the remainder through OPEC+ May 21. PT 8.50 or 0.40 on the remainder. Risk: Brent settling in the 98 to 103 range collapses both wings. Sized to be losable on the remaining half.

Short SPY June 30 $720 / $700 Put Spread (Hold, Index Hedge)

Hold from Wednesday open at 5.10 net debit, mark 4.20 (down 18 percent on the records into Day 1 risk-on). Sized 0.20 percent NAV. The hedge against the Day 2 Taiwan tail and the broader summit downside surprise is intact. PT $20 spread max on a Day 2 disappointment; stop on an S&P close above 7,560 within two sessions. Risk: A clean Day 2 joint statement with tariff truce extension and AI chip framework drives a fresh records run. Vertical caps loss at 5.10.

Long Gold via $4,650 / $4,800 Call Spread vs Short $4,500 Put (Hold)

Hold from Friday at net entry 0.30, mark 1.30 (up from 1.20 Wednesday). Real yields stable plus the dollar firmer is offset by the Iran kinetic floor and the Taiwan tail. PT 4,900; reduce on 4,800 print. Risk: A clean memo signing plus dollar rally would compress gold to 4,550. Put strike caps downside at 4,500.

Long PLTR June $160 / $185 Call Vertical (Hold)

Stock at 137.20 Wednesday close, up 1.8 percent on the AI cohort halo into CSCO. Hold the June 160 to 185 call vertical at 4.85 net debit from Friday roll, sized 0.30 percent NAV, mark 5.40 (plus 11 percent). The plus 85 percent revenue growth print is the structural validation; NVDA May 20 is the cohort halo catalyst. PT 185. Risk: Burry-style short escalation or a softer Q2 peer print. Vertical caps loss at 4.85.

Close JD Long vs BABA Short Pair (Exit at Stop)

Close the Wednesday entry at the minus 5 percent pair stop. JD up 0.8 percent vs BABA up 6.5 percent AH on the cloud and AI capex reprice. We book the small loss and re-evaluate after the Friday Day 2 joint statement and the BABA AH print digestion. The pair was the right structural read on the Q1 print but the BABA cloud line moved the print into AI infrastructure territory.

Signal Tracker | Thursday 8:30 AM ET Mark

Assessment: 16 BULL / 7 BEAR / 6 NEUTRAL. The mosaic flipped on Day 1 of the summit, with the bullish risk-on count up from 7 Wednesday to 16 Thursday and the bearish duration count steady at 7. The book is positioned at plus 6.1 percent net long gross (up from plus 5.4 percent Wednesday), with the SMH and BA expressions added to, the new ANET call vertical and the CSCO calendar opened on the CSCO read-across, the XLI collar opened on the cyclicals tariff truce hope, the energy long trimmed from 0.60 to 0.40 percent NAV on the Hormuz language compression of the upside tail, and the duration short held via the rolled 2Y put spread plus the 30Y line. We model a 75 percent probability the Friday Day 2 joint statement carries the tariff truce extension, a 40 percent probability of an AI chip framework with NVDA H200 implications, a 15 percent probability of a Taiwan tail event, and a 70 percent probability the May 20 NVDA print confirms the Blackwell ramp guide that pulled CSCO’s order book up 80 percent.

Quick Earnings Reactions Watch | Thursday and Friday

What Could Be Wrong

The Thursday mark is a structurally bullish read on the AI infrastructure cohort post CSCO, a structurally bullish read on the global risk-on path post the Trump-Xi Day 1 deliverable stack, and a structurally bearish read on duration post the Warsh chair confirmation. The three biggest sources of error in this setup are:

1. A Friday Day 2 joint statement that delivers a Taiwan tail event rather than the tariff truce extension base case. Xi’s “Thucydides Trap” framing and the “handle with prudence” language on Taiwan is the cleanest reminder that the Day 2 risk is asymmetric to the tail. We model the probability of a Taiwan-driven downside surprise at 15 percent, but the asymmetry on a 15 percent tail is real given the cyclicals positioning we added today. The right play is to hold the SPY June 30 720 to 700 put spread at 0.20 percent NAV through the Day 2 readout and not press the cyclicals add above 0.30 percent NAV through Friday.

2. A surprise dovish Warsh speech Friday at the swearing-in that resets the front-end repricing on the chair-level conviction. This is the lowest-probability scenario (10 percent), but the front-end positioning is the most asymmetric to the surprise. The Warsh first-remarks tape Wednesday was conviction-light rather than hawkish-explicit, and a Friday swearing-in speech could pivot harder than the curve has modeled if Warsh elects to signal restraint on the December hike repricing. We hold the 2Y rolled put spread and the 30Y line at 0.10 percent DV01 and do not press into the swearing-in cadence.

3. A reversal of the Trump-Xi Hormuz language at the Day 2 press conference, where Xi clarifies that China’s interest is bilateral US energy import diversification rather than alignment with the UN draft resolution. The Day 1 readout was from the White House and Trump’s post-meeting Fox News interview rather than the Chinese readout, and Beijing’s formal Day 2 framing could materially soften the structural Hormuz signal. The right play is to keep the energy long at 0.40 percent NAV (not 0.30) and let the OPEC+ May 21 ministerial overlay carry the upside if Beijing walks back the language.

The book is not betting on any single catalyst; it is positioned for the dispersion across the calendar to continue widening, which is the cleaner read on a week that has CPI (Tue, hot), PPI (Wed, shock), Warsh chair confirmation (Wed afternoon), the Trump-Xi summit (Thu/Fri), four major US prints (CSCO posted, WMT, AMAT, DE), the Israel-Lebanon Washington round, the NVDA May 20 print, and the OPEC+ May 21 ministerial all within seven sessions.

This note reflects information available as of May 14, 2026, 8:30 AM ET, one hour before the cash open and ahead of the 8:30 AM jobless claims and April retail sales prints. Markets open at 9:30 AM ET. Walmart BMO and the Israel-Lebanon Washington round may reset positioning by the close. Friday Day 2 of the Trump-Xi summit and the Powell departure plus Warsh swearing-in are the binding catalysts into the weekend. For internal use only. Not investment advice.