Tentative US Iran Hormuz Deal Awaits Trump Sign-off, DELL +38% Pre-Market on $60B AI Server FY27 Guide, COST EPS $4.93 Beat, MRVL Custom Silicon Raise, Core PCE 3.3% / 0.2% MoM In-Line, Brent $92 / WTI $87 / 10Y 4.45.

Friday pre-market, 9:00 AM ET, with the S&P 500 e-mini bid 0.10 percent higher to 7,571 after the Thursday cash session closed at a record 7,563.63 up 0.58 percent, the Nasdaq 100 e-mini bid 0.36 percent higher to 27,015 after the Nasdaq Composite printed its own record 26,917.47 up 0.91 percent, and the tape now reconciling three reinforcing constructive cross-currents into the cash open. The dominant overnight story is the tentative US-Iran 60-day framework agreement reached late Thursday that would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz with mine clearance and free passage, lift the US blockade on Iranian ports, and launch nuclear talks, with the proviso that President Trump has not yet signed off and the agreement reportedly still has two sticking points around Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and the size of any Hormuz transit service fee. The Iranian military fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait late Thursday in what US Central Command framed as a ceasefire violation that was intercepted by Kuwaiti defenses, a reminder that the deal architecture remains kinetically tested even as the diplomatic track has advanced materially, with Brent crude reacting down 1.30 percent to $92.47 and WTI down 1.40 percent to $87.66 on net deal optimism. The second binding cross-current is the Dell Technologies Q1 FY27 print that delivered the cleanest single AI-infrastructure beat of the cycle, with revenue of $43.8 billion at plus 88 percent year on year (a beat of roughly $8 billion versus the $35.5 billion consensus), record non-GAAP EPS of $4.86 at plus 214 percent, AI-optimized server revenue of $16.1 billion at plus 757 percent year on year, $24.4 billion of AI orders booked in the quarter alone, the FY27 AI server revenue guide raised to $60 billion from the prior $50 billion outlook, and the FY27 total revenue guide raised to $167 billion versus the $142.1 billion consensus. DELL is bid plus 38 percent in pre-market and the read-through is structurally bullish across the AI-server, storage, and networking complex into the June 1 Jensen Huang Computex Taipei keynote with the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack platform unveil. The third constructive cross-current is the April Core PCE print that landed at plus 0.2 percent month on month and plus 3.3 percent year on year, where the monthly read came in a tenth below the plus 0.3 percent consensus while the year-on-year matched expectations, with the headline PCE at plus 0.4 percent month on month (cooling sharply from plus 0.7 percent in March) and plus 3.8 percent year on year on the residual energy passthrough. The 10Y is bid five basis points lower to 4.45 percent on the cooler core read combined with the Hormuz deal headlines, the 2Y at 3.89 percent, the 30Y at 4.97 percent, and the curve giving back the bear-steepening that had built into the print. Personal income printed minus 0.1 percent in April on tax-refund drag, personal spending plus 0.5 percent on resilient services consumption, and the personal savings rate dropped to 2.6 percent which is a multi-year low and the cleanest single signal that the household has now exhausted the post-2020 cushion at the margin. Costco reported Q3 fiscal 2026 net sales of $69.15 billion at plus 11.6 percent year on year (a slight miss versus the $69.52 billion consensus on the revenue line) with EPS of $4.93 beating the $4.92 consensus, comparable sales plus 9.8 percent (plus 6.6 percent adjusted for gas inflation and FX), digitally-enabled comparable sales plus 21.5 percent, paid executive memberships reaching 41.2 million at plus 9.6 percent, and the stock muted in after-hours given the rev line nudge below. Marvell reported Q1 FY27 record revenue of $2.418 billion at plus 28 percent year on year (a beat versus the $2.4 billion consensus), non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 versus the $0.79 consensus, Q2 guidance of $2.7 billion at plus 35 percent year on year (raised acceleration), and management reset full-year FY27 and FY28 outlooks higher on AI-related custom silicon XPU bookings, with the stock up roughly 5 percent in after-hours on the Q2 guidance acceleration. Asia closed mixed with the Nikkei down 0.47 percent to 64,693 on tech profit-take, the Topix down 0.41 percent to 3,902, the Hang Seng down 1.27 percent to 25,006 on broader tech-cohort profit-taking, the CSI 300 up 0.12 percent to 4,914 on late dip-buying, the Kospi down 0.53 percent to 8,185 on memory profit-take, and the ASX 200 down 1.43 percent to 8,593 on mining and energy weakness. Europe is trying to bounce after the Thursday losses, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.30 percent to 631, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.25 percent to 6,082, the DAX up 0.28 percent, the CAC 40 up 0.22 percent, and the FTSE 100 broadly flat on the ceasefire optimism partially offsetting Iran’s late-Thursday missile salvo. The binding catalyst stack into the long weekend steps through Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM (May consensus 48.0), UMich Sentiment Final at 10:00 AM (May preliminary printed at a record low 44.8 on gas-price drag), Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM, the June 1 Jensen Huang Computex Taipei keynote with the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack platform unveil, the June 3 CrowdStrike Q1 FY27 print, the June 7 OPEC+ Ministerial in Vienna, and the June 16-17 first Warsh FOMC plus dot plot retirement. Base case into the cash open is that the DELL print provides a structural step-function bid under the AI-infrastructure cohort while the cooler-than-expected core PCE plus the tentative Hormuz deal architecture reinforce the duration plus risk-on combination, with the binary character of the next 72 hours dependent on whether Trump signs the framework or rejects it on the uranium-stockpile sticking point.

Three things to internalize before the open:

1. The Dell Q1 FY27 print is the cleanest single AI-infrastructure cohort confirmation we have seen this cycle, with revenue of $43.8B at plus 88 percent year on year beating consensus by roughly $8B, AI-optimized server revenue of $16.1B at plus 757 percent year on year, $24.4B of AI orders booked in the single quarter, the FY27 AI server revenue guide raised to $60B from the prior $50B view, the FY27 total revenue guide raised to $167B versus the $142.1B consensus, and the stock bid plus 38 percent in pre-market. The read-through cascades through the full AI-infrastructure stack including the hyperscaler customer concentration (read AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOG on confirmed buildout commitments), the storage complex (record $4.3B Q1 inside the $29B ISG print), the optical-networking complex (read CIEN, COHR, LITE on the AI-pod aggregation traffic), the custom-silicon complex (read AVGO, MRVL on the XPU offload pipeline), and structurally the cleanest single confirmation that the second half of the AI capex cycle has not stalled and is in fact accelerating into the June 1 Jensen Huang Computex Taipei keynote with the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack platform unveil.

2. The April Core PCE at plus 0.2 percent month on month (cooler than the plus 0.3 percent consensus) and plus 3.3 percent year on year (in-line) plus the headline PCE at plus 0.4 percent month on month (cooling sharply from plus 0.7 percent in March) is the cleanest single confirmation that the energy-driven inflation passthrough peaked in March and the core consumption-side disinflation remains intact even with the war-induced gasoline pulse. The 10Y at 4.45 percent (down five basis points) and the 2Y at 3.89 percent (down five basis points) confirm the bull-flatten reassertion ahead of the June 16-17 first Warsh FOMC plus dot plot retirement, with rates futures now pricing a first cut by the November FOMC at roughly 62 percent probability up from 55 percent on Thursday. The personal savings rate at 2.6 percent which is a multi-year low and the disposable income at minus 0.1 percent are the binding sub-warnings that the consumer cushion has thinned at the margin even as nominal spending held plus 0.5 percent on resilient services.

3. The tentative US-Iran 60-day Hormuz framework that emerged late Thursday (Strait of Hormuz reopened with mine clearance, free passage, no tolls in current Trump position, US blockade lifted, Iran free oil exports, nuclear talks launched) is the cleanest single deal-architecture step forward we have logged in the cycle, but the framework remains unsigned with Trump still reviewing the latest version and two sticking points unresolved (the size of the Iranian enriched uranium stockpile reduction and Iran’s stated preference for a transit service fee). The Iranian missile salvo at Kuwait late Thursday (intercepted by Kuwaiti defenses) was framed by US Central Command as a ceasefire violation but the diplomatic track has not paused, and we mark our memorandum-signing probability up to 62 percent from 48 percent yesterday on the tentative framework even as the two sticking points keep the binary character intact through the long weekend. The Brent at $92.47 (down 1.30 percent) and WTI at $87.66 (down 1.40 percent) are the textbook expressions of the deal optimism being priced at the margin, with the gold at $4,572 up 0.87 percent the residual hedge given the open Trump-signoff risk.

What Posted Overnight

US-Iran Tentative Hormuz Deal Framework (Late Thursday)

Our take on the Iran framework: The tentative framework is the most substantive step forward we have logged this cycle because it codifies the full architecture of a 60-day window with concrete obligations on both sides, mine clearance, free transit, and a launched nuclear-talks track. The two sticking points are also more bounded than the prior cycle of disagreement because the uranium-stockpile issue can be staged across the 60-day window and the service-fee question is a narrow commercial item rather than a strategic dispute. The Iranian missile salvo at Kuwait late Thursday is the cleanest single signal that hardliners inside the IRGC retain veto-credible escalation capacity even as the diplomatic track has progressed, but the intercept plus the absence of escalatory response from the US side keeps the framework alive. The memo probability is marked up to 62 percent on net, with the binary character of the long weekend on Trump’s signature decision and the next-72-hour kinetic posture from both sides.

Dell Technologies (DELL) Q1 FY27 Print Recap (AMC Thursday)

Our take on DELL: The print is the cleanest single AI-infrastructure cohort confirmation we have seen this cycle and is the structural step-function we had positioned for going into the AMC trio. The $16.1 billion AI server revenue at plus 757 percent year on year combined with the $24.4 billion AI orders booked in the single quarter is the cleanest single signal that the second half of the AI capex cycle has not stalled despite the war-tape volatility and is in fact accelerating with the customer cohort. The FY27 AI server guide raised to $60 billion from $50 billion (a $10 billion incremental raise) plus the FY27 total revenue guide raised to $167 billion (a $25 billion incremental raise versus consensus) is the structural cap of the print, and the read-across to AVGO custom silicon, MRVL XPUs, CRWD security, ANET networking, CIEN optical, COHR optical, and the broader AI-infrastructure cohort is unambiguously bullish. We lean structurally long the AI-infrastructure quadrant into the June 1 Computex Taipei keynote and through the next-quarter print sequence.

Costco (COST) Q3 FY26 Print Recap (AMC Thursday)

Our take on COST: The print is structurally constructive on the core consumer-staples consumption layer, with the comparable-sales acceleration to plus 9.8 percent (plus 6.6 percent adjusting for gas inflation and FX) the cleanest single signal that the high-end consumer remains anchored to the warehouse-club value proposition even as the lower-income cohort is showing the savings-rate drain we noted in the PCE print. The digitally-enabled comparable sales plus 21.5 percent and the executive-membership cohort plus 9.6 percent to 41.2 million is the cleanest single signal that the membership lifetime-value flywheel continues to compound, and the revenue line nudge below consensus is more a function of the gas-price passthrough timing than a demand softening. The stock reaction was muted in after-hours at plus 0.4 percent because the print confirmed the existing setup rather than re-rating the multiple, and we view the COST setup as a balanced hold into the multiple-compression risk that the AI-infrastructure cohort poses to the staples leadership.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) Q1 FY27 Print Recap (AMC Wednesday)

Our take on MRVL: The print is the cleanest single confirmation of the custom-silicon XPU acceleration thesis, with the Q2 guidance of $2.7 billion at plus 35 percent year on year a $200 million step-up versus consensus and the full-year FY27 and FY28 outlooks raised on AI bookings depth. The headline beats were thin ($18 million on revenue, one penny on EPS) but the binding signal is the Q2 acceleration plus the through-year raise on what management framed as exceptional AI-related bookings, and the AH stock reaction of plus 5 percent captures the structural read rather than the headline tone. The read-across to AVGO custom silicon, NVDA NVL72 / Vera Rubin distribution, and the broader optical-plus-custom-silicon AI-cohort complex is structurally bullish, with the Computex Taipei keynote June 1 the binding next-window catalyst.

April PCE Inflation and Personal Income (8:30 AM Friday Release)

Our take on the April PCE: The Core PCE at plus 0.2 percent month on month (a tenth cooler than consensus) plus the plus 3.3 percent year on year (in-line) is the cleanest single confirmation that the core disinflation track is holding through the war-induced gasoline pulse, with the headline PCE month-on-month cooling sharply from plus 0.7 percent in March to plus 0.4 percent the textbook signal that the energy passthrough peaked in March and is now decelerating. The bond-market reaction (10Y down five basis points to 4.45 percent, 2Y down five basis points to 3.89 percent) is the cleanest single signal that duration is back in the duration-friendly bull-flatten ahead of Warsh. The personal savings rate dropping to 2.6 percent and the disposable income at minus 0.1 percent are the binding sub-warnings, and the read-into Q2 GDP base is now structurally softer with the consumer cohort exhibiting the savings-rate drain we have flagged for two prints.

Asia and Europe Overnight Recap

Asia closed mixed on Friday with the Hang Seng down 1.27 percent to 25,006 the largest move and the Nikkei down 0.47 percent to 64,693 on tech profit-take, the Kosdaq down 2.54 percent on a small-cap bio sell-off, and the ASX 200 down 1.43 percent on mining and energy weakness. The CSI 300 bucked the regional softness up 0.12 percent to 4,914 on late dip-buying ahead of the long weekend in the US, with the read-through from the Hormuz deal optimism muted by the late-Thursday Iran missile salvo at Kuwait. Europe is trying to bounce after the Thursday losses with the Stoxx 600 up 0.30 percent to 631, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.25 percent to 6,082, the DAX up 0.28 percent, the CAC 40 up 0.22 percent, and the FTSE 100 broadly flat, the cleanest single regional signal that the deal-architecture step forward is being priced at the margin while the kinetic risk remains a partial offset.

Key Events Today and Through Next Week

DELL Read-Across: AI Infrastructure Cohort Confirmation Through the Stack

The Dell Q1 FY27 print is the cleanest single AI-infrastructure cohort confirmation we have logged this cycle and is structurally the read we had positioned for given the read-through from the NVDA Q1 print plus the SNOW Wednesday-AMC AWS $6 billion commitment plus the agentic-cohort confirmation in the CRM print. The $16.1 billion AI server revenue at plus 757 percent year on year is the cleanest single signal that the second-half AI capex cycle has not stalled and is in fact accelerating, with the $24.4 billion AI orders booked in the single quarter the read on the forward-pipeline depth and the FY27 AI server guide raised to $60 billion from $50 billion the read on management’s confidence in the multi-quarter visibility. The Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue at $29.0 billion at plus 181 percent year on year is the cleanest single confirmation that the server-plus-networking-plus-storage stack is being deployed at hyperscale scale rather than at individual hyperscaler-cluster scale, and the storage revenue at $4.3 billion at plus 8 percent year on year (a record) is structurally important because storage has historically been the lagging-leg confirmation of a sustained capex cycle. The read-through cascades into the custom-silicon cohort (AVGO, MRVL) on the XPU offload pipeline, the optical-networking cohort (CIEN, COHR, LITE) on the AI-pod aggregation traffic, the cybersecurity cohort (CRWD, PANW, ZS) on the surface-area expansion, and the hyperscaler customer concentration (AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOG) on the confirmed buildout commitments. We lean structurally long the AI-infrastructure quadrant into the June 1 Jensen Huang Computex Taipei keynote and through the next-quarter print sequence.

Bond Market Setup: 10Y at 4.45% on Cooler Core PCE and the Bull-Flatten Reassertion

The 10Y at 4.45 percent (down five basis points) is the cleanest single signal that the duration trade has reasserted the bull-flatten on the cooler core PCE print combined with the Hormuz deal optimism that is taking pressure off the energy-passthrough inflation expectations component. The 2Y at 3.89 percent (down five basis points) and the 30Y at 4.97 percent (down five basis points) confirm the regime-shift back into the duration-friendly bull-flatten ahead of the June 16-17 first Warsh FOMC plus dot plot retirement, with rates futures now pricing a first cut by the November FOMC at roughly 62 percent probability up from 55 percent on Thursday. The cooler-than-expected April Core PCE at plus 0.2 percent month on month plus the headline PCE cooling sharply from plus 0.7 percent to plus 0.4 percent month on month is the cleanest single signal that the war-induced energy passthrough peaked in March and is now decelerating, which combined with the Q1 GDP second estimate revision to plus 1.6 percent and the personal savings rate at 2.6 percent (multi-year low) is the binding signal that the rates complex has the right to lean toward the dovish handoff into the first Warsh dot-plot retirement. The May NFP next Friday is the binding cross-print before the FOMC and a soft NFP read (below 150 thousand) plus a U-rate uptick to 4.3 percent or higher would re-rate the front-end pricing further toward an earlier first cut.

Signal Tracker | Friday 9:00 AM ET Mark

The Friday pre-market mosaic is structurally constructive on the convergence of three reinforcing positive cross-currents into the long weekend, with the DELL plus 38 percent pre-market on the $43.8B revenue beat plus the $16.1B AI server revenue at plus 757 percent year on year plus the FY27 AI server guide raised to $60B providing the cleanest single AI-infrastructure cohort step-function we have logged, the April Core PCE at plus 0.2 percent month on month (cooler than the plus 0.3 percent consensus) and plus 3.3 percent year on year (in-line) plus the headline cooling sharply from plus 0.7 percent to plus 0.4 percent confirming the energy-passthrough disinflation, and the tentative US-Iran 60-day Hormuz framework that emerged late Thursday taking the memorandum probability up to 62 percent from 48 percent yesterday even with Trump’s signature still pending and two sticking points unresolved. The cross-asset confirmations are the Brent at $92.47 down 1.30 percent and the WTI at $87.66 down 1.40 percent on net deal optimism, the VIX at 15.92 down 4.90 percent on the constructive mosaic, the 10Y at 4.45 percent down five basis points on the bull-flatten reassertion, the gold at $4,572 up 0.87 percent the residual hedge on the open Trump-signoff risk, and the DXY at 99.12 softer on the duration bid. Asia closed mixed with the Hang Seng down 1.27 percent the largest regional move and the CSI 300 bucking the softness up 0.12 percent, while Europe is trying to bounce after the Thursday losses with the Stoxx 600 up 0.30 percent. The binding catalyst path through the long weekend steps from the 9:45 AM Chicago PMI plus 10:00 AM UMich Final and Pending Home Sales into the June 1 Jensen Huang Computex Taipei keynote with the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack platform unveil, the June 3 CrowdStrike print, the June 6 May NFP, the June 7 OPEC+ Ministerial in Vienna, and the June 16-17 first Warsh FOMC plus dot plot retirement as the next-tier catalyst sequence into mid-month.

This note reflects information available as of May 29, 2026, 9:00 AM ET, approximately 30 minutes before the cash open following the Thursday after-the-bell Dell Technologies (revenue $43.8 billion at plus 88 percent year on year beating consensus by roughly $8 billion, non-GAAP EPS $4.86 at plus 214 percent, AI server revenue $16.1 billion at plus 757 percent year on year, $24.4 billion of AI orders booked in the quarter, FY27 AI server guide raised to $60 billion from $50 billion, FY27 total revenue guide raised to $167 billion versus $142.1 billion consensus, stock bid plus 38 percent pre-market), Costco (net sales $69.15 billion at plus 11.6 percent year on year versus $69.52 billion consensus, EPS $4.93 versus $4.92 consensus, comparable sales plus 9.8 percent / plus 6.6 percent adjusted, digital comparable sales plus 21.5 percent, executive members 41.2 million), and Marvell (record revenue $2.418 billion at plus 28 percent year on year, non-GAAP EPS $0.80 versus $0.79 consensus, Q2 FY27 guide $2.7 billion at plus 35 percent year on year, full-year FY27 and FY28 outlooks raised on AI custom silicon XPU bookings), the late-Thursday tentative US-Iran 60-day Hormuz framework (Strait reopen with mine clearance and free passage, US blockade lifted, sanctions waivers issued, nuclear talks launched) that remains unsigned by President Trump with two sticking points around the Iran enriched uranium stockpile and the Hormuz service fee, the late-Thursday Iranian ballistic missile salvo at Kuwait intercepted by Kuwaiti defenses and framed by US CENTCOM as an egregious ceasefire violation, the April Core PCE at plus 0.2 percent month on month and plus 3.3 percent year on year (cooler than the plus 0.3 percent consensus and in-line on the year-over-year), the April headline PCE at plus 0.4 percent month on month and plus 3.8 percent year on year, personal income at minus 0.1 percent, personal spending at plus 0.5 percent, and the personal savings rate at 2.6 percent (multi-year low). The 9:45 AM Chicago PMI, the 10:00 AM UMich Sentiment Final and Pending Home Sales prints, the June 1 Jensen Huang Computex Taipei keynote with the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack platform unveil, the June 3 CrowdStrike Q1 FY27 print, the June 6 May Nonfarm Payrolls, the June 7 OPEC+ Ministerial in Vienna, and the June 16-17 first Warsh FOMC plus dot plot retirement are the binding catalysts into mid-month. For internal use only. Not investment advice.