Intel Surges 11% on an Alphabet AI Chip Order. Iran and Israel Agree to Halt Attacks, Easing Brent to $92.

Tuesday pre-market, 7:00 AM ET. The lead story this morning is Intel surging 11.2% in pre-market after reports that Alphabet placed a substantial AI chip order, the most significant sign yet that hyperscalers are actively diversifying their silicon supply chains beyond Nvidia. The order pulled the entire semiconductor complex higher, with AMD adding 5.1%, Broadcom climbing 2.8%, and Micron gaining 5.0%. The move comes at a critical moment: the PHLX Semiconductor Index lost over 10% last Friday on Broadcom’s AI guidance miss, and the KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker on Monday with an 8.3% crash. A single Alphabet order does not fix Intel’s structural challenges around foundry execution and market share losses, but it does validate a thesis that hyperscaler demand for custom and alternative AI silicon is broadening. Nvidia rose 2.0% pre-market to roughly $210, holding near its all-time high despite the rotation narrative.

The geopolitical picture improved overnight. Iran announced it had ended its military operation against Israel after the two sides exchanged the most serious missile strikes since the April 8 ceasefire broke down over the weekend. Trump signaled optimism that negotiations could resume, calling on both sides to avoid further escalation. The de-escalation drove an immediate reversal in crude: Brent fell 1.8% to $92.55 per barrel after surging to $97.68 on Monday, and WTI dropped 2.3% to $89.22. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since March 4, and a reopening deal is still distant, but the diplomatic tone shift removes the tail risk of an immediate broader regional war. OPEC+ approved another 188,000 bpd production increase for July at Saturday’s ministerial meeting, a largely symbolic addition against the 12-13 million bpd Hormuz disruption backdrop.

Gold steadied above $4,350 per ounce, recovering from its March lows as the dollar index slipped below 100 to 99.73 on reduced safe-haven demand following the Iran-Israel ceasefire. However, bullion remains constrained by the stronger rate outlook after Friday’s 172,000 jobs print (vs. 85K consensus) reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike rates by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.57% while the 2-year fell 4 basis points to 4.16%. Bitcoin stabilized near $63,000 after briefly dipping below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, with institutional dip-buyers stepping back in.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rebounded 0.98% to 64,654 after Monday’s 3.9% plunge, recovering on the Iran ceasefire news and the Intel headline. The KOSPI was closed for a holiday (Memorial Day in Korea). The Hang Seng slipped 1.1% to 24,320 as Hong Kong-listed tech names remained under pressure from the chip selloff’s aftershocks and ongoing concerns about China’s property sector. European markets were mixed: the DAX gained 0.71% to 24,790 and the Stoxx 600 edged up 0.3% to 622, while the FTSE 100 dipped 0.27% to 10,345, pressured by falling energy stocks tracking the oil retreat.

Apple’s WWDC 2026 keynote yesterday revealed a rebuilt Siri AI assistant, the most significant software overhaul in the company’s history. The new Siri is conversational, context-aware, and no longer hands off queries to third-party providers like ChatGPT. Apple shares were flat in after-hours, consistent with this being a software event rather than a hardware cycle catalyst. iOS 27, macOS Golden Gate, and expanded Apple Intelligence features were also announced.

On the macro front, the critical event this week is tomorrow’s May CPI print at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus is 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, which would mark a three-year high driven by energy’s roughly 18% year-over-year contribution from the Iran conflict. Core CPI is expected at 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. A hotter-than-expected number would cement rate hike expectations ahead of the first Kevin Warsh FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Markets already price over 60% odds of a hike by October.

The FIFA World Cup opens Thursday, June 11, across the US, Mexico, and Canada. It is the first 48-team tournament in history, with 104 matches across 16 cities. Goldman Sachs has argued the event’s projected $30.5 billion economic impact will be “marginally positive but statistically insignificant” for host GDP, and hotel bookings across the 11 US host cities are tracking below initial forecasts due to visa difficulties, geopolitical tensions, and elevated ticket prices.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict saw Russian forces record a net loss of 93 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the past month, double the losses from the prior four-week period. Ukraine struck the Petersburg Oil Terminal, a Tambov weapons facility, and a Baltic Fleet warship at Kronstadt. Russian casualties have exceeded recruitment every month since December 2025, with losses roughly 9,000 above replacement in January alone. The conflict continues to grind without strategic resolution.

Key Data and Events Today

Key Events This Week

Monday’s Session Recap

Pre-Market Movers

Geopolitical Tracker

Iran-Israel: Iran declared it had ended its military operation against Israel after both sides exchanged the worst strikes since the April ceasefire. Trump urged both sides to stand down and signaled optimism about resuming negotiations. The unsigned Hormuz memorandum remains far from reality but the immediate tail risk of regional war has receded. Oil dropped sharply on the de-escalation, with Brent giving back nearly all of Monday’s 4.9% spike.

Strait of Hormuz: Still closed since March 4. Approximately 12-13 million barrels per day remain offline, the largest oil supply disruption in history. Chinese crude imports at a ten-year low. Any reopening remains contingent on a broader US-Iran deal that includes denuclearization and port access, both of which remain unresolved.

Ukraine-Russia: Russia lost 93 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the past month. Ukraine struck Russian infrastructure targets including the Petersburg Oil Terminal and a Baltic Fleet warship. Russian casualties continue to exceed recruitment, and the ISW estimates Russia’s rate of territorial advance has halved from 9.76 sq km per day in early 2025 to 4.6 sq km per day in 2026. No strategic resolution in sight.

This note reflects information available as of June 9, 2026, 7:00 AM ET. Nasdaq 100 futures are at 29,580 (+1.50%), S&P 500 futures at 7,494 (+0.80%), and Dow futures at 50,942 (+0.40%). Intel surged 11.2% pre-market on a reported Alphabet AI chip order, broadening the semiconductor rebound after last week’s historic selloff. Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks, pulling Brent crude back to $92.55 from $97.68 on Monday. Gold holds $4,350 as the dollar slips below 100. May CPI prints tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus at 4.2% YoY. The first Warsh FOMC is June 16-17. FIFA World Cup opens Thursday. For internal use only. Not investment advice.