The AI Rally Lasts One Day as OpenAI Weighs Delaying Its IPO. Hot Core PCE at 3.4% Hardens Hike Odds.

Friday, June 26, 2026, written pre-market around 8:00am ET. The AI trade got exactly one day to celebrate. Micron’s blowout reignited the complex on Wednesday and Thursday morning, and by Thursday’s close the mood had already curdled, with the Magnificent Seven slipping on news that Apple and Microsoft are raising hardware prices. Overnight the selling resumed in force across Asia and is carrying into US futures. Nasdaq 100 futures are off about 1.0 percent near 30,290, S&P 500 futures are down roughly 0.4 percent near 7,460, and the Dow is barely changed, a split that tells you this is a narrow reassessment of expensive technology rather than a broad growth scare. The proximate trigger overnight was a report that OpenAI may push its blockbuster IPO into 2027, blaming SpaceX’s flop and its own cash burn. As always with a pre-open note, these are overnight and futures levels and they can move by the bell.

Top Call: The AI Trade Is Being Repriced, Not Abandoned

The single thing PMs need to digest this morning is that the same forces that made Micron print records on Wednesday are now showing up as costs and second-guessing everywhere else. OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027, with CFO Sarah Friar pointing to enormous compute commitments, ongoing cash burn, and the burden of public reporting, even as Sam Altman is said to favor moving sooner at a roughly $1 trillion target. Apple and Microsoft both lifted product prices because the AI build-out has made memory and storage chips scarce and expensive. And Thursday’s core PCE landed hot at 3.4 percent, the firmest reading since late 2023. Put together, the message is that AI demand is real, but the bill is coming due in cash burn, in device prices, and in stickier inflation. We read today as a healthy valuation reset inside an intact secular trend, not the start of a fundamental unwind, and we would use the Dow’s resilience as confirmation that this is rotation rather than capitulation. The risk is that a market this concentrated can fall a long way on multiple compression alone, so we respect the tape while staying constructive on the names with real earnings behind them.

Semiconductors: From Hero to Funding Question in 48 Hours

The whiplash here is the story. Micron’s record quarter on Wednesday told everyone the memory upcycle is real, and for one session the whole chain ripped. By Friday the market had moved on to the harder question, which is what all this AI capacity actually costs and who pays for it. The selloff that began earlier in the week, sparked by a cautious AI outlook from Broadcom and a broad sense that semiconductor multiples had run to historically stretched levels, never fully healed, and Micron’s print bought only a brief reprieve. Chip names led the declines again overnight, and the read-through is that investors are no longer willing to pay any price for AI exposure, they want to see the cash flows.

The OpenAI headline is the cleanest expression of that shift. A delay to 2027 would be a direct signal that the appetite to fund AI at private valuations near $1 trillion has cooled, and it lands right after SpaceX’s own debut soured. SpaceX priced its $75 billion offering at $135 on June 11, spiked past $225 intraday on June 17, and has since round-tripped to roughly $153, barely above its listing price. That round trip is now the cautionary tale the whole AI-IPO pipeline is being measured against. Our take is that the demand for compute is not in question, but the willingness of public and private markets to keep underwriting the spending at any valuation clearly is, and that is the variable that matters for the chip complex into the second half.

Corporates: Apple and Microsoft Make the Memory Squeeze a Consumer Story

The most underappreciated development this week is that the AI memory boom has crossed over from a supplier windfall into a consumer cost. Apple raised prices across its Mac and iPad lines, with many popular models up 20 percent or more. The base MacBook Pro rose $300 to $1,999, the MacBook Air climbed $200 to $1,299, and the iPad Pro went up $200 to $1,199, while the iPhone, Watch, and AirPods were left unchanged for now. Microsoft followed by lifting Xbox console prices worldwide from August 1, with the Series X Disc model jumping to $800. Both companies blamed the same thing, the soaring cost of the storage and memory chips that AI data centers are now consuming in bulk.

This is the connective tissue between Micron’s blowout and Friday’s selloff, and it is worth sitting with. The DRAM and HBM scarcity that drove Micron’s 81 percent margins is the same scarcity now forcing device makers to either eat the cost or pass it on, and they are passing it on. That feeds directly back into the inflation picture, which is precisely the worry the hot PCE print just validated. Our take is that this is a margin headwind for hardware names and a fresh, if modest, upside risk to goods inflation later this year, and it complicates the soft-landing case at exactly the moment the Fed is leaning hawkish. On the supply side, the response is already forming, with Samsung reportedly preparing a decade-long investment plan exceeding 1,000 trillion won, near $646 billion, and SK Hynix readying its own large AI-focused spending, but new capacity takes years, so the squeeze is a 2026 and 2027 reality, not something that resolves this quarter.

Macro: A Hot PCE Hands the Hawks Their Anchor

Thursday’s data did the bears a favor. Core PCE for May rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.4 percent on the year, the hottest since October 2023, while the headline gauge ran at a 4.1 percent annual pace, the firmest since spring 2023. The Iran war earlier in the year is the main culprit, having pushed oil and gasoline higher and reignited inflation that had been cooling, and the May reading may well mark the peak now that crude has rolled over. But the print is the print, and it hands the higher-for-longer camp the fundamental anchor it had been missing. Traders still expect the Fed under Kevin Warsh to deliver a September hike, and while odds eased slightly after the data, the direction of travel is clear.

The cross-asset response this morning is consistent with that read. The dollar is firmer near 101.40, the two-year yield is holding around 4.17 percent even as the ten-year eases a basis point to 4.40 percent, and the VIX has popped back above 20 as equities wobble. The combination of sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed is the worst backdrop for the longest-duration, highest-multiple corner of the market, which is exactly the corner getting sold. We would note the irony that cheaper oil is the disinflationary offset working in the Fed’s favor, even as the AI-driven memory squeeze pushes the other way. The net of those two forces is the single most important macro question for the second half.

Oil: The Slide Toward $68 Extends on the Iran Thaw

Crude kept falling overnight, with WTI sliding toward $68 and Brent easing near $71.60, both pressing fresh multi-month lows. The drivers are unchanged. The Strait of Hormuz is open and busy, with Monday the heaviest transit day since the war began, the US license authorizing Iranian crude sales is clearing a path for more barrels, and OPEC keeps adding supply into a trimmed demand outlook. Oil has now given back essentially the entire war premium it built in the spring. For portfolios this is the helpful counterweight to everything else this morning. Cheaper energy is a clean disinflationary tailwind that should temper the goods-price pressure coming from the chip squeeze, even as it keeps grinding down the energy equities that have been the market’s weakest group all month.

Geopolitics: The Iran Inspection Standoff Stays Stuck

The nuclear file remains the live tail under an otherwise calmer Middle East. IAEA Director General Grossi insists the signed accord places Iran’s nuclear material and facilities under agency supervision and that inspections will follow, though he has softened the framing by calling the exact timing not essential. Washington has gone further, with President Trump saying Iran agreed fully to inspections and Vice President Vance echoing it. Tehran continues to push back, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei saying there are no plans to admit inspectors to war-damaged sites and that any access would come only after a final deal. Secretary of State Rubio added friction by stating the US will not accept Iranian tolls on the strait.

Our read is that the market impact stays contained for now because the pieces that move oil, the open strait and the crude license, are still working, which is why energy keeps bleeding rather than spiking. But enrichment and the uranium stockpile remain unresolved and publicly contested by the two governments that signed the framework. A breakdown on the inspection question is the one headline that could put a bid back under crude and rebuild the haven demand in gold that has steadily drained this month.

Asia and Europe Overnight

Asia took the brunt of the selling, and the damage was concentrated exactly where the AI exposure is heaviest. Japan was the standout to the downside, with the Nikkei 225 dropping about 4.2 percent to 69,361 as SoftBank tumbled more than 12 percent on the OpenAI delay report, given its outsized stake in the AI complex. Korea was hit nearly as hard, the Kospi falling roughly 5.8 percent to around 8,411 as Samsung shed more than 8 percent and SK Hynix more than 9 percent, fully reversing the memory-led euphoria of 48 hours earlier. Greater China held up better in relative terms, with the Hang Seng off about 1.8 percent near 23,480 and the CSI 300 down roughly 2 percent. Europe opened lower in sympathy, the Stoxx 600 down about 0.7 percent and the DAX off 0.8 percent, with the chip names leading, ASML softer and Infineon and STMicroelectronics each down more than 3 percent. The pattern is the mirror image of Thursday: Asia led the move, this time lower, Europe followed at a fraction of the magnitude, and the US is set to open with the losses concentrated in the Nasdaq while the Dow holds.

Geopolitical Tracker

US-Iran: The ceasefire framework holds and the Strait of Hormuz stays open and busy, but the inspection question is stuck in a public standoff. Washington and the IAEA say Iran agreed to readmit inspectors; Tehran says there are no plans and any access follows a final deal. Enrichment and the stockpile remain the unresolved core and the live tail for oil.

Ukraine-Russia: Still structurally unresolved and overshadowed by the Iran track. Combat continues along the eastern axes, and a pending US security-assistance package is the item to watch for fresh headline risk.

United Kingdom: Keir Starmer remains in office pending the Labour leadership contest that opens July 9, with Andy Burnham the front-runner. A domestic story with limited US spillover.

Taiwan Strait and South China Sea: PRC coast guard pressure near the Pratas Islands continues at a low simmer with no major escalation.

Quick Take: Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) Hardware Price Hikes

Our Take: This is the AI memory boom showing up at the cash register, and it matters more than the individual price tags. The same HBM and DRAM scarcity that powered Micron’s record margins is now a cost shock for device makers, who are choosing to pass it through rather than absorb it. That is a margin and demand-elasticity question for hardware names and a fresh upside nudge to goods inflation, landing the same week core PCE printed at a three-year high. The supplier side wins, the assembler side pays, and the consumer ultimately funds the AI build-out.

Quick Take: OpenAI IPO Delay and the SpaceX Read-Through

Our Take: A 2027 delay would be the clearest sign yet that the market’s willingness to fund AI at trophy valuations has thinned, and the timing alongside SpaceX’s round trip is no coincidence. None of this says compute demand is fading, the Micron quarter argued the opposite, but it does say the financing side of the AI story has entered a more skeptical phase. For public chip and infrastructure names, the practical effect is that the cash flows now have to do the talking.

Key Events Ahead

Friday pre-market note, June 26, 2026, drafted around 8:00am ET. Levels shown are pre-open futures and overnight prices and may shift by the cash open. S&P 500 futures -0.4% near 7,460, Nasdaq 100 futures -1.0% near 30,290, Dow futures roughly flat as the AI trade resumes its selloff one day after Micron’s blowout. OpenAI is reportedly weighing a delay of its IPO to 2027, citing cash burn and compute costs, with SpaceX (SPCX ~$153) having round-tripped from a $225 high. Apple raised Mac and iPad prices by 20%+ and Microsoft lifted Xbox prices, both blaming AI-driven memory-chip costs. Thursday’s core PCE printed 3.4% YoY, the hottest since October 2023, hardening September hike odds under Fed Chair Warsh. Asia sold off hard: Nikkei -4.2% to 69,361 with SoftBank -12%, Kospi ~-5.8% to ~8,411 with Samsung -8% and SK Hynix -9%, Hang Seng -1.8%, CSI 300 -2%. Europe lower, Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -0.8%, with ASML, Infineon, and STMicro leading chips down. WTI ~$68.20 and Brent ~$71.60 at fresh lows as the Iran thaw holds. Gold ~$3,995, Bitcoin ~$59,700, VIX ~20.10, 10Y 4.40%, DXY ~101.40. For internal use only. Not investment advice.