Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

China's four-year-high destocking and surging premiums build a floor under aluminium. Bearish averages and a hawkish Fed cap the rebound.中国四年来最强去库与海外升水飙升为铝价筑底;均线偏空与鹰派美联储压制反弹。

Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
July 7 spot + night-session close
Steven Yuan
SHFE AL2608 23,055 (+0.50%)
LME 3M $3,139 (+0.84%)
SMM A00 22,940 (+100)
ADC12 24,050 (+50)
Alumina ~2,776 (weak)
Brent $76.65 (+3.36%)
DXY 101.05 (-0.04%)

1 · Market Performance

Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, July 7 night session

  • Open 22,940, high 23,130, low 22,940, close 23,055 CNY/mt, +0.50% vs prior close; bullish candle.
  • Rebounded from the prior low of 22,250; back above MA5 (22,943.90) and MA10 (22,853.82), testing/reclaiming MA20 (22,945.68); still capped by MA40 (23,290.36) and MA60 (23,555.97); medium/long-term MAs in a bearish alignment.
  • Volume 64.3k lots (sharply lower); open interest 239k (−6,639) → short covering / bear position reduction.
  • 4h MACD golden cross persists (DIFF −212.61 > DEA −305.69), red bar 186.17; bullish momentum expanding, though the medium/long-term bearish structure is not yet fully reversed.

Data LME 3-month aluminum, July 7

  • Open 3,113, high 3,152, low 3,103, close 3,139 USD/mt, +0.84%; bullish candle, rebounded from prior low 3,040.
  • Above MA5 (3,118.72); still below MA10 (3,146.35), MA20 (3,243.12), MA40 (3,353.47), MA60 (3,382.97); all-cycle MAs bearish.
  • Volume 19,977 (+4,833); OI 600,276 (+103) → modest bullish position building. Daily MACD death cross persists but the green bar narrowed to −16.44 (bearish momentum easing).

View Level assessment

  • SHFE sits in the low-level repair zone after the Mar–May rally; the bounce is short-covering / oversold-driven, not demand-led.
  • SHFE: support 22,850 (MA10) / 22,250 prior low; resistance MA40 (~23,290), MA60 (~23,556); 23,290 is the key level once MA20 is reclaimed.
  • LME: support 3,040 / MA5 3,119; resistance MA10 3,146, MA20 3,243.
  • SHFE and LME stabilized and bounced in tandem; destocking keeps SHFE relatively firmer.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data (vs prior trading day)

  • SMM A00 ingot: July 7 close 22,940 CNY/mt, +100 ↑.
  • East China premium/discount: mainstream at SHFE-07 parity to +10; shipment-sentiment index 3.01 (+0.02), purchasing 2.80 (+0.01).
  • LME aluminum: 3,139 close ↑.
  • ADC12 (secondary alloy): 24,050 CNY/mt, +50 ↑ (cost support + futures recovery).
  • Alumina: supply–demand easing persists, board falling on rising OI, still weak ↓; recent Mysteel national average ~2,776 CNY/mt (July 3).
  • Brent crude: ~76.65 USD (+3.36%) ↑ (renewed Iran sanctions friction).
  • Dollar index: ~101.05 (−0.04%) ↔.

View

  • Primary, A00, ADC12 and LME are all stabilizing/recovering together; alumina is the lone laggard, lowering the cost floor.
  • The A00-vs-scrap spread has narrowed to historic lows → some secondary-alloy plants are substituting A00 ingot for scrap.

3 · Inventory

Data

  • Domestic ingot social inventory keeps drawing down; last week’s ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a ~4-year high; destocking accelerated, mainly in Guangdong and Wuxi.
  • As of Tuesday (July 7), ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell further vs the prior session (Guangdong/Wuxi led).
  • Liquid-aluminum share rising; casting-ingot output declining.
  • Secondary-alloy ingot social inventory (Foshan/Ningbo/Wuxi) 15,300 mt, −547 vs prior day (Foshan −506).

View

  • Rapid destocking (4-year-high withdrawals) is the single most important bullish support and the floor for SHFE.
  • But absolute inventory is still high; with the off-season plus more casting ingots, renewed buildup is a risk; persistence of destocking is the key variable. Inventory cushions, it is not a strong driver.

4 · Macro Factors

Data

  • Dollar index ~101.05, near a 3-week low; largest weekly drop since April last week. Hawkish official remarks (high rates + balance-sheet runoff) limited the dollar’s downside.
  • Fed (new Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): the market is pricing HIKE vs HOLD, not cuts.
Meeting Hold +25 bps +50 bps
July 73.3% 26.7% N/A
September 32.4% 52.7% 14.9%

CME FedWatch: roughly a 67.6% chance of some hike by September. Trigger: June NFP only +57k (est. ~110k); prior two months revised down 74k; unemployment 4.2%; hike timing pushed out.

  • Inflation: core PCE ~3.4% (May), CPI ~4.2% YoY; still sticky.
  • Geopolitics/sanctions: Iran’s deputy FM said the US cancelled the waiver on Iranian oil-sales sanctions, calling it a breach of the US–Iran MOU; Brent +3.36%. US–Iran nuclear talks are still ongoing, so the risk premium is on balance still narrowing.
  • China: June manufacturing PMI back above 50 (expansion); May CPI +1.2% YoY; the 15th Five-Year Plan and “anti-involution” policy support industrial-metal sentiment; property still soft.

View: impact on aluminum

  • Bullish: weaker dollar, China PMI expansion, “anti-involution” sentiment, oil bounce lifting cost expectations.
  • Bearish: hawkish Fed (>50% Sept-hike odds), sticky core inflation, ex-China new-capacity expectations.
  • Net: mixed, short-term neutral. Key swings: dollar direction (break 100.4/99.5?), Sept-hike pricing, Iran sanctions/talks.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums surging (tighter-supply expectations)

Region Premium Change
Japan MJP (spot, end-Jun) 380 USD/mt +123.5% vs end-2025
Japan MJP (Q3 contract) 395 USD/mt +309 vs Q4-25 (+359.3%)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid) 547.5 USD/mt +62.2% YTD
Europe P1020A (duty-unpaid) 470 USD/mt +64.9% YTD
US Midwest DDP 110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt) +18.2% YTD
  • Overseas supply: ~20.72 Mt of planned ex-China capacity for 2026+; ~2.3 Mt slated for 2026 (~0.7 Mt commissioned, ~1.6 Mt in H2), led by Indonesia/Middle East → a medium-term supply drag.
  • Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.26 Mt/yr; liquid-aluminum share up, casting-ingot output down; output rebounded WoW (new-capacity ramp + restarts).
  • Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr; Guangxi restarts, supply–demand easing, price soft → lower cost support.
  • Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading downstream operating rate ~63.4%; secondary aluminum 33.3% in June (−0.9 pct MoM, −7.6 pct YoY); aluminum semis exports strong (+10.4% Jan–May); PV/grid resilient, construction weak.
  • Spot sentiment: East China mildly warmer (dip-buying on a bullish near-term view), Central China weak/wait-and-see; just-in-time overall.

View

  • Surging ex-China premiums + rapid domestic destocking = near-term support; but domestic/overseas new capacity, softer alumina and off-season demand are the medium-term drags.
  • Fundamental drivers remain limited; price is dominated by the “destocking / ex-China premiums vs off-season + supply increment” tug-of-war and macro sentiment.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data

  • East China: shipment willingness firmed; some downstream turned bullish on the near-term and nibbled, price acceptance improved; trades at SHFE-07 parity to +10; shipment index 3.01 (+0.02), purchasing 2.80 (+0.01).
  • Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders kept buyers cautious (just-in-time only); an early discount narrowed as suppliers firmed; trades ~SHFE-07 minus 90–110; shipment index 2.89 (−0.01), purchasing 2.10 (−0.01). (Some spot–futures traders widened premiums for arbitrage; the actual Central-China range was also seen at −110 to −140.)

View

  • On the bounce, East China sentiment improved while Central China stayed bearish; premiums/discounts swing with the board and the arrival pace.
  • If destocking persists and ex-China premiums stay strong, discounts should stabilize further.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

  • Rapid social-inventory destocking (withdrawals at a ~4-year high).
  • Sharp rise in ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP, Europe, US Midwest).
  • SHFE/LME stabilizing and bouncing on short covering; LME oversold momentum fading.
  • Strong aluminum semis exports (+10.4% Jan–May); China June PMI back in expansion.
  • Weaker dollar near a 3-week low; oil bounce lifting cost expectations.

Bearish

  • Hawkish Fed (>50% Sept-hike odds; core PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%; high rates + QT).
  • New/restarted capacity ramping (Indonesia/Middle East + China).
  • Alumina supply–demand easing, price soft → lower cost support.
  • Summer off-season; weak downstream demand; low secondary operating rate (33.3%).
  • Soft property; risk of renewed inventory buildup; medium/long-term MAs still bearish.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Aluminum is stabilizing and bouncing at low levels (short-covering / oversold repair); China’s four-year-high destocking and surging ex-China premiums provide a floor and keep SHFE firmer than LME; but with medium/long-term MAs still bearish, off-season demand, ex-China new capacity and a hawkish Fed capping the upside, the rebound’s height is limited.

9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s Night Session

  1. Whether SHFE AL2608 holds MA20 (~22,945) and pushes toward MA40 (~23,290); downside support MA10 (~22,854) / 22,250 prior low.
  2. LME 3M (~3,140–3,157): can it reclaim MA10 (3,146) / MA20 (3,243)? Support 3,040.
  3. DXY (~101): break below 100.4 / 99.5 (bullish metals) vs reclaim above 101.2 (bearish).
  4. Fed: shifts in FedWatch Sept-hike odds (now ~67.6%) + hawkish official commentary.
  5. Inventory: SMM/Mysteel social inventory; can the 4-year-high destocking pace continue?
  6. Spot premium/discount: East/Central/South China premiums and shipment/purchasing indices; direction of MJP/Europe/US premiums.
  7. Geopolitics/energy: Iran oil-sanctions-waiver cancellation + nuclear talks, Brent crude; alumina price and ex-China capacity ramp.

Sources: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) 7.8 Aluminum Morning Meeting summary, spot reviews & price board; LME; SHFE; Mysteel (alumina); CME FedWatch; TradingEconomics. Data window: July 7 spot & night-session close.

Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice or any basis for trading decisions. Data may be delayed or contain errors; please defer to official exchange releases. Users should exercise independent judgment and bear their own decision risk.

一 · 行情表现

确认 沪铝主力 AL2608，7月7日夜盘

  • 开 22,940，高 23,130，低 22,940，收 23,055 元/吨，+0.50%（较前收盘），收阳线。
  • 自前低 22,250 反弹；站上 MA5（22,943.90）、MA10（22,853.82），测试/上破 MA20（22,945.68）；仍受 MA40（23,290.36）、MA60（23,555.97）压制，中长期均线偏空下行。
  • 成交量 6.43 万手（较前明显萎缩）；持仓 23.9 万手（减 6,639 手）→ 空头减仓特征。
  • 4小时 MACD 金叉延续（DIFF −212.61 > DEA −305.69），红柱 186.17，多头动能扩张；但中长期空头格局未完全反转。

确认 LME 3个月铝，7月7日

  • 开 3,113，高 3,152，低 3,103，收 3,139 美元/吨，+0.84%，收阳线，自前低 3,040 反弹。
  • 站上 MA5（3,118.72）；仍在 MA10（3,146.35）、MA20（3,243.12）、MA40（3,353.47）、MA60（3,382.97）下方，全周期均线偏空。
  • 成交 19,977 手（+4,833）；持仓 600,276 手（+103）→ 小幅多头建仓。日线 MACD 死叉延续但绿柱收窄至 −16.44，空头动能减弱。

解读 价位判断

  • 沪铝处 3–5 月大涨后的低位修复区，绝对价位中低；本轮以”空头减仓/超跌反弹”为主，非需求驱动。
  • 沪铝： 支撑 22,850（MA10）/ 22,250 前低；阻力 MA40（~23,290）、MA60（~23,556），上破 MA20 后 23,290 为关键。
  • LME： 支撑 3,040 / MA5 3,119；阻力 MA10 3,146、MA20 3,243。
  • 沪伦同步企稳反弹，去库支撑下沪铝相对偏强。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认 （对比前一交易日）

  • SMM A00 铝锭： 7月7日收 22,940 元/吨，+100 ↑。
  • 华东升贴水： 主流成交 SHFE 07 平水至 +10；出货意愿指数 3.01（+0.02）、采购意愿 2.80（+0.01）。
  • LME 铝： 3,139 美元收 ↑。
  • ADC12（再生铝合金）： 24,050 元/吨，+50 ↑（成本支撑 + 盘面回升）。
  • 氧化铝： 供需转松格局延续，盘面增仓下行、弱势不改 ↓；近期 Mysteel 全国均价约 2,776 元/吨（7月3日）。
  • 原油 Brent： 约 76.65 美元（+3.36%）↑（伊朗制裁摩擦再起）。
  • 美元指数： 约 101.05（−0.04%）↔。

解读

  • 原铝、A00、ADC12、LME 同步企稳回升；氧化铝独弱，成本端支撑下移。
  • A00 与废铝价差收窄至历史低位 → 部分再生铝合金企业改用 A00 铝锭替代废铝投料。

三 · 库存

确认

  • 国内铝锭社会库存延续去库，近一周铝锭出库量创近四年新高，去库明显提速；主要去库地为广东、无锡。
  • 截至周二（7月7日）主流消费地铝锭库存较上一交易日续降（广东、无锡为主）。
  • 液铝比例持续回升，铸锭量下降。
  • 再生铝合金锭社会库存（佛山/宁波/无锡）15,300 吨，较前一交易日降 547 吨（佛山 −506）。

解读

  • 快速去库（四年高位出库）是当前最核心的多头支撑，为沪铝提供底部。
  • 但绝对库存仍偏高，淡季 + 铸锭增加下，后续存在再累库风险；去库能否延续为关键。库存“托底、非强驱动”。

四 · 宏观因素

确认

  • 美元指数 约 101.05，近三周低位；上周创 4 月以来最大周跌幅。官员重申高利率 + 缩表的鹰派表态，限制美元下行空间。
  • 美联储（新主席 Warsh，反通胀）：市场定价”加息 vs 按兵不动”而非降息。
会议 按兵不动 加息 25bp 加息 50bp
7月 73.3% 26.7% 无
9月 32.4% 52.7% 14.9%

CME FedWatch：9月前加息概率约 67.6%。触发因素：6月非农仅 +5.7 万（预期约 11 万），前两月合计下修 7.4 万；失业率 4.2%；加息时点被后移。

  • 通胀： 核心 PCE 5月约 3.4%，CPI 同比约 4.2%，仍偏黏。
  • 地缘/制裁： 伊朗副外长称美国取消对伊朗石油销售制裁豁免，指其违反美伊谅解备忘录；Brent +3.36%。同时美伊核谈判仍在推进，风险溢价整体仍趋窄。
  • 中国： 6月制造业 PMI 重回 50 上方（扩张）；5月 CPI 同比 +1.2%；”十五五”规划、”反内卷”政策对工业金属情绪偏支撑；地产偏弱。

解读：对铝影响

  • 偏多： 美元走弱、中国 PMI 扩张、”反内卷”情绪、原油反弹抬升成本预期。
  • 偏空： 美联储鹰派（9月加息概率过半）、核心通胀黏性、海外新增产能预期。
  • 综合： 多空交织、短期中性。关键变量：美元方向（能否破 100.4/99.5）、9月加息定价、伊朗制裁/核谈进展。

五 · 基本面

确认：海外升水大涨（供应趋紧预期）

地区 升水 变化
日本 MJP（现货，6月末） 380 美元/吨 较去年末 +123.5%
日本 MJP（Q3 长单） 395 美元/吨 较 25Q4 +309（+359.3%）
欧洲 P1020A（完税） 547.5 美元/吨 年内 +62.2%
欧洲 P1020A（未完税） 470 美元/吨 年内 +64.9%
美中西部 DDP 110.5 美分/磅（~2,435 美元/吨） 年内 +18.2%
  • 海外供应： 2026 年及以后海外规划产能约 2,072 万吨；2026 年计划投产约 230 万吨（已投约 70 万吨，H2 约 160 万吨），印尼/中东为主 → 中长期供应利空。
  • 国内供应： 运行产能约 4,526 万吨/年；液铝比例上升、铸锭量下降；本周产量环比回升（新产能爬产 + 复产）。
  • 氧化铝： 运行产能约 9,620 万吨/年；广西复产、供需转松，价格弱势 → 成本支撑下移。
  • 下游需求： 高温淡季；龙头下游开工率约 63.4%；再生铝 6月开工率 33.3%（环比 −0.9pct、同比 −7.6pct）；铝材出口维持强劲（1–5月 +10.4%）；光伏/电网偏韧、建筑偏弱。
  • 现货情绪： 华东略回暖（下游看涨小补），华中偏弱观望；整体刚需为主。

解读

  • 海外升水飙升 + 国内快速去库构成短期支撑；但国内外新增产能、氧化铝走弱、淡季需求为中期压制。
  • 基本面驱动仍有限，价格更多受”去库/海外升水 vs 淡季 + 供应增量”拉锯与宏观情绪主导。

六 · 原铝现货市场

确认

  • 华东： 昨日出货意愿增强，下游部分看涨近月、采购意愿小幅回升，接价改善；成交 SHFE 07 平水至 +10；出货指数 3.01（+0.02）、采购指数 2.80（+0.01）。
  • 华中（河南）： 高库存 + 订单弱，下游接货谨慎，仅少量刚需；初期贴水，后供方挺价、贴水收窄；成交约 SHFE 07 贴水 90–110 元/吨；出货指数 2.89（−0.01）、采购指数 2.10（−0.01）。（部分现货商为套价将升贴水拉宽，实际成交区间亦见 −110~−140 元/吨。）

解读

  • 盘面反弹下，华东情绪好转、华中仍偏空；升贴水随盘面与到货节奏波动。
  • 若去库延续、海外升水维持强势，贴水有望进一步企稳。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多

  • 社会库存快速去库（出库量创近四年新高）。
  • 海外区域升水大幅上行（日本 MJP、欧洲、美中西部）。
  • 沪伦同步企稳反弹、空头减仓；LME 超跌动能衰减。
  • 铝材出口维持强劲（1–5月 +10.4%）；中国 6月 PMI 重回扩张。
  • 美元走弱、位于近三周低位；原油反弹抬升成本预期。

利空

  • 美联储鹰派（9月加息概率过半，核心 PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%，高利率 + 缩表）。
  • 海外（印尼/中东）及国内新增/复产产能释放。
  • 氧化铝供需转松、价格走弱 → 成本支撑下移。
  • 夏季高温淡季，下游需求弱、再生铝开工低（33.3%）。
  • 地产偏弱；后续再累库风险；中长期均线仍偏空。

八 · 一句话观点

铝价低位企稳反弹（以空头减仓/超跌修复为主），国内四年高位去库与海外升水飙升构成底部支撑，沪铝相对 LME 偏强；但中长期均线仍偏空、淡季需求、海外新增产能与美联储鹰派限制上行，反弹高度有限。

九 · 今晚夜盘关注清单

  1. 沪铝 AL2608 能否站稳 MA20（~22,945）并上攻 MA40（~23,290）；下方支撑 MA10（~22,854）/ 22,250 前低。
  2. LME 3M（~3,140–3,157 美元）：能否收复 MA10（3,146）/ MA20（3,243）；支撑 3,040。
  3. 美元指数（~101）：破 100.4/99.5（利多金属）还是重回 101.2 上方（利空）。
  4. 美联储： FedWatch 9月加息概率（现 ~67.6%）变化 + 官员鹰派表态。
  5. 库存： SMM/Mysteel 社会库存，四年高位去库能否延续。
  6. 现货升贴水： 华东/华中/华南升贴水与出货、采购意愿指数；海外 MJP/欧美升水走向。
  7. 地缘/能源： 伊朗石油制裁豁免取消 + 核谈进展、Brent 原油；氧化铝价格与海外产能爬产。

数据来源： SMM（上海有色网）7.8 铝晨会纪要、现货点评与实时盘面；LME；SHFE；Mysteel（氧化铝）；CME FedWatch；TradingEconomics。数据口径：7月7日现货与夜盘收盘。

免责声明： 本简报仅供内部参考，基于公开信息整理，不构成任何投资建议或买卖依据。数据可能存在延迟或误差，请以交易所及官方发布为准。使用者应独立判断并自行承担决策风险。