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All Editions
Sep 15, 2026
Five tests land and only one produces a ruling, so the bands are rewritten. Alumina resolves bearish below all six averages.
Sep 14, 2026
The Oman Hormuz talks are postponed and Brent stops just short of $108. A fresh downstream print shows all seven segments up.
Sep 13, 2026
Weekend: Monday's SHFE trading day is already 38% traded after opening at 23,920. FedWatch resolves at 85.6%, not 90%.
Sep 12, 2026
Weekend: August CPI sends FedWatch hike odds to 90% and LME cash falls $69. Alumina breaks below all six averages.
Sep 11, 2026
The top test resolves bearish: SHFE makes a new high at 24,675 and closes back at 24,490. The night session breaks 450 lower to 24,125.
Sep 10, 2026
Four of five tests pass as SHFE hits 24,665 and closes at 24,560. Alumina holds its cost line by two points.
Sep 9, 2026
Every pre-written test resolves at once: China's inventory lands at 802,000t inside the band. SHFE returns with a 24,460 close.
Sep 8, 2026
Westmetall publishes two rows at once and LME stocks fall to a new low of 244,525t. The data demotion is withdrawn after one edition.
Sep 7, 2026
US-Iran strikes resume and crude is bid to $96.56. All twelve aluminium contracts close below their open while all twelve alumina contracts close above.
Sep 6, 2026
Weekend: China's social inventory falls 37,000t to 815,000t. The destock re-accelerates to 1.55 times the August pace.
Sep 5, 2026
Weekend: SHFE hits 24,510 and closes back at exactly 24,290. US payrolls of 162,000 triple the consensus.
Sep 4, 2026
SHFE jumps 270 to 24,370, its highest close since June 5, on rising open interest. LME stocks fall to their lowest since 1990.
Sep 3, 2026
SHFE hits both named levels exactly, 24,170 in the day and 24,290 at night. LME flips back into backwardation.
Sep 2, 2026
London reopens and outperforms as LME cash clears all six averages at $3,261. The spot basis repairs to exactly zero.
Sep 1, 2026
SHFE jumps 155 to 24,075, its highest close since August 12, clearing all six averages. London is shut for the bank holiday.
Aug 31, 2026
Rusal moves to mothball 2.1Mt of alumina capacity, 30.7% of its own output. Guinea caps bauxite exports at 150Mt.
Aug 30, 2026
Weekend: China's August processing PMI jumps 6.5 points to 48.7 but stays in contraction. Billet stocks hit a five-year high.
Aug 29, 2026
Weekend: SHFE reclaims all six moving averages at 23,920 for the first time since August 12. Warsh's speech doubles September hike odds.
Aug 28, 2026
SHFE closes above its 10-day average for the first time since August 17. The night session closes at its high above every average.
Aug 27, 2026
The 24,075 night high is confirmed and then handed back in full as SHFE closes at 23,760. Alumina falls to 2,638, below cost.
Aug 26, 2026
A bearish outside day closes SHFE at 23,755, but the night session prints 24,075. Social inventory draws for a sixth week to 860kt.
Aug 25, 2026
The missing night session opened at 23,800, above the whole resistance band. SHFE reclaims its 5-day average and spot beats the board.
Aug 24, 2026
China's July anode exports show where ex-China supply is refilling. Yarwun cuts 1.2Mtpa of alumina from October.
Aug 23, 2026
Weekend: Three inventory calibers now agree as SHFE weekly stocks fall 18,300t. Spot in South China beats the board.
Aug 22, 2026
Weekend: The break was false as SHFE reclaims its 60-day average at 23,710. Social inventory falls to 875kt.
Aug 21, 2026
SHFE loses its 60-day average at 23,595 and retraces the entire August advance. Yet all three Chinese regions keep destocking.
Aug 20, 2026
The 23,795 floor breaks and SHFE closes at 23,675, its lowest since August 3. The dollar breaks 99 as Iran fires missiles at the UAE.
Aug 19, 2026
The 10-day average reclaim fails on its first retest as SHFE falls to 23,955. LME slips into contango and alumina loses every average.
Aug 18, 2026
SHFE reclaims its 10-day average at 24,035 and the basis flips positive. China's July data miss on all three lines.
Aug 17, 2026
The dollar extends lower to 99.54, passing yesterday's test. China's July auto sales fall 20.9% while NEV exports surge.
Aug 16, 2026
Weekend: The night session closes flat at 23,945 below the 10-day average. China's July loans contract again.
Aug 15, 2026
Weekend: China's inventory breaks below 900kt to 898kt, yet SHFE falls 400 in two sessions. LME backwardation returns.
Aug 13, 2026
LME gives back its whole two-day advance to $3,307.50. SHFE spikes to 24,470 and fails, while spot flips to a premium.
Aug 12, 2026
Hydro's 6.3Mt Alunorte refinery cuts to half rate on a gas disruption. SHFE rises to 24,250 and LME clears its 60-day average.
Aug 11, 2026
SHFE clears the top of its range at 24,165 as China's destock re-accelerates to 917kt. Spot lags and the basis blows out.
Aug 10, 2026
A caliber correction: SHFE's August 7 close was 24,040, not 23,980, for a weekly gain of 410. Alumina's weekly gain is also confirmed.
Aug 9, 2026
Weekend: The missing August 7 print shows SHFE up 145 before payrolls. LME stocks break their freeze with a 16% drop.
Aug 8, 2026
Weekend: US payrolls fall 23,000 and the dollar hits a two-month low. LME gains only 0.22% while Brent loses 7% on the week.
Aug 7, 2026
SHFE closes above its 60-day average for the first time in the rebound. China's social inventory erases last week's build at 933kt.
Aug 6, 2026
SHFE pierces its 60-day average to 23,840 and then closes back below it. Iran and Oman agree a 60-day fee-free Hormuz interim.
Aug 5, 2026
Both bull pillars crack as China's destock turns to a build. LME prints a six-week high at $3,261.70 anyway.
Aug 4, 2026
Aluminium decouples from crude as LME clears $3,200 at $3,225.80. Brent falls, and the bearish Hormuz read is overturned in one session.
Aug 3, 2026
Trump calls off the Iran strike and Hormuz reopening enters the deal terms. Brent drops 4.8% and the last bullish tail is gone.
Aug 2, 2026
Weekend: China's aluminium processing PMI falls to 42.2 with all seven subsectors contracting. Ex-China output turns higher.
Aug 1, 2026
Weekend: The destock was real but supply-led, not demand-led. China's PMI at 49.2 and a fourth failed $3,200 test confirm it.
Jul 31, 2026
China's destock deepens to 953kt and billet stocks finally turn lower. Yen intervention pushes the dollar below 100.
Jul 30, 2026
The Fed holds with three hawkish dissents and the dollar falls. An Iranian strike on Jordan lifts oil, and both shocks lift aluminium.
Jul 29, 2026
China's ingot inventory falls below 1Mt for the first time this cycle. SHFE decouples higher on FOMC decision day.
Jul 28, 2026
LME inventories hit a record low of 271kt even as oil slides to $88. The tape holds at $3,171 on physical tightness.
Jul 27, 2026
Brent collapses to $91 as US strikes on Iran pause. Aluminium's risk premium deflates ahead of the FOMC.
Jul 26, 2026
Weekend: Brent falls back below $100 on peace-talk hopes as the dollar firms. The supply-risk premium is fading.
Jul 25, 2026
Weekend: LME rejects $3,200 again and pulls back to $3,165. The week still finished higher with the destock floor intact.
Jul 24, 2026
Houthi tanker strikes push Brent above $100. LME rebounds to $3,192 and tests the $3,200 cap again.
Jul 21, 2026
LME confirms a soft close at $3,138 as the dollar firms to 101. Oil-driven inflation fears revive September hike bets.
Jul 20, 2026
Monday's reopen turns soft as LME slips toward $3,140 on risk-off and a firm dollar. The destock floor still holds.
Jul 19, 2026
Weekend: Hormuz strikes escalate and keep Brent near $86. The destock floor holds into Monday's reopen.
Jul 18, 2026
LME eases to $3,163 but holds near the top of its range as the dollar books a weekly loss. A DeepSeek-style risk-off clouds the outlook.
Jul 16, 2026
A cool June PPI confirms the soft CPI. LME fades again at $3,200 while the destock floor holds.
Jul 15, 2026
June CPI cools far more than expected and clears the twin test. The dollar slips and aluminium firms.
Jul 14, 2026
Iran's Hormuz closure lifts Brent 4% and resets a supply-risk premium. Aluminium firms into CPI and Warsh day.
Jul 12, 2026
Weekend: LME gave back 1.95% Friday while the destock floor holds. The complex now waits on June CPI and Warsh's testimony.
Jul 11, 2026
A soft June jobs report cools Fed-hike bets and eases the dollar. China's continued destock underpins SHFE.
Jul 9, 2026
Aluminium consolidates as the destocking floor holds. A more hawkish Fed and a firmer dollar cap the rebound.
Jul 8, 2026
China's four-year-high destocking and surging premiums build a floor under aluminium. Bearish averages and a hawkish Fed cap the rebound.