1 · Market Performance
Data LME 3-month aluminum, July 8 (confirmed)
- Close ~$3,141 USD/mt, essentially flat (~0%) vs the prior $3,139; an inside/doji session as the market paused after the prior rebound.
- Aluminum is down ~10.9% over the past month but still ~20.6% higher YoY; i.e. a low-level consolidation after the correction off June highs.
- Holding just above MA5 (~3,119); still below MA10 (~3,146), MA20 (~3,243), MA40 (~3,353), MA60 (~3,383); all-cycle MAs remain bearish.
Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, July 8 day + night session
- Held the 23,000 area, roughly flat vs the prior 23,055 close; LME’s flat lead and a firmer dollar left the board range-bound rather than extending the bounce. (Exact night-session tick not independently confirmed at print; framed off the July 7 close and the flat LME lead.)
- Structure carried over from July 7: back above MA5/MA10 (~22,850–22,950) and testing MA20 (~22,945), still capped by MA40 (~23,290) and MA60 (~23,556); medium/long-term MAs still in a bearish alignment.
- Prior-session tone was short-covering / bear-position reduction (OI fell ~6.6k on July 7), not demand-led buying.
View Level assessment
- SHFE sits in the low-level repair zone after the Mar–May rally; the recent bounce is short-covering / oversold-driven and is now consolidating.
- SHFE: support 22,850 (MA10) / 22,250 prior low; resistance MA40 (~23,290), MA60 (~23,556); 23,290 is the key hurdle once MA20 is cleared.
- LME: support 3,040 / MA5 3,119; resistance MA10 3,146, MA20 3,243. A flat close leaves 3,146 as the pivot.
- SHFE and LME are consolidating in tandem; domestic destocking keeps SHFE relatively firmer than LME.
2 · Prices & Related Markets
Data (vs prior trading day)
- SMM A00 ingot: ≈22,950 CNY/mt, broadly flat ↔ (tracking the flat board). (Estimated off the July 7 close of 22,940; exact July 8 fix not independently confirmed at print.)
- East China premium/discount: mainstream around SHFE-07 parity to a small premium; sentiment steadied on the flat board.
- LME aluminum: $3,141 close, flat ↔ (confirmed).
- ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,050 CNY/mt, broadly flat ↔; tight scrap supply and pre-holiday restocking still lend cost support.
- Alumina: weakness persists ↓; SMM alumina index 2,751.29 CNY/mt (−8.33) on July 8; every regional index fell (Shandong 2,764.72 −9.96, Henan 2,790.98 −9.11, Shanxi 2,799.75 −9.89, Guizhou 2,739.55 −2.72, Guangxi 2,659.77 −10.68). Supply–demand easing keeps lowering the cost floor.
- Brent crude: $78.02 (+5.2%) ↑; WTI $73.52 (+4.4%) ↑; a sharp spike on US–Iran escalation.
- Dollar index: 101.07 (+0.05%) ↔↑; firmed as September-hike pricing rose.
View
- Primary, A00, ADC12 and LME are broadly flat/consolidating; alumina remains the lone, persistent laggard, steadily lowering the cost floor.
- The oil spike is cost-side supportive for the broader complex but is a risk-premium move, not a demand signal; its aluminum read-through is two-sided.
3 · Inventory
Data
- Domestic ingot social inventory is in the ~85.9–87.2 kt consumption-area range; the prior week saw the fastest destocking in ~4 years, with ingot warehouse withdrawals at a multi-year high.
- More recent tracking shows the destocking pace decelerating into the off-season; weekly change swung toward a small build (~+0.5 kt vs a prior ~+2.4 kt), i.e. a fragile supply/low-price-demand balance forming near the 22,400–22,900 CNY/mt zone.
- Liquid-aluminum share still elevated; casting-ingot output subdued; aluminum-rod inventory showed some drawdown on low-price restocking.
View
- The four-year-high destocking remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE; but the pace is slowing, so the floor is holding rather than driving prices higher.
- Absolute inventory is still elevated; with off-season demand plus more casting ingots, renewed buildup is a live risk. Inventory cushions, it is not a strong driver; watch whether withdrawals re-accelerate.
4 · Macro Factors
Data
- Dollar index ~101.07 (+0.05%); firmed as traders lifted September-hike odds. The recent 3-week-low bounce has stalled.
- Fed (Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): the market prices HIKE vs HOLD, not cuts; and pricing turned more hawkish on July 8.
| Meeting | Hold | +25 bps | +50 bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 29 | 70.1% | 29.9% | N/A |
| September | 29.8% | 50.6% | 19.6% |
CME FedWatch (July 8): implied September-hike odds jumped to ~70% (from ~58% the prior day; ~67.6% in our last brief). The hawkish repricing is the key macro shift of the session.
- Inflation: core PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2% YoY; still sticky, underpinning the hawkish path.
- Geopolitics/energy: US struck Iranian targets and revoked Iran’s oil-export waiver; Iran counterstrikes reported. Brent +5.2% to $78.02, WTI +4.4% to $73.52. A rising energy-cost premium plus risk-off tone.
- China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion, > May 50.0); new export orders back above 50 at 50.1; high-tech PMI 53.5 led. Property development still under pressure; consumer goods lagging (50.2). “Anti-involution” / 15th Five-Year-Plan sentiment remains supportive.
View: impact on aluminum
- Bullish: China PMI in expansion + export orders recovering; oil spike lifting cost-side expectations; “anti-involution” policy sentiment.
- Bearish: sharply more hawkish Fed (Sept-hike odds ~70%), firmer dollar, sticky core inflation, risk-off from Middle East escalation.
- Net: mixed, short-term neutral with a bearish macro tilt this session. Key swings: whether Sept-hike pricing holds near 70%, DXY direction (break 100.4/99.5 vs reclaim 101.2+), and Iran escalation/oil path.
5 · Fundamentals
Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)
| Region | Premium | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Japan MJP (Q3 contract) | ~395 USD/mt | multi-year highs (+359% vs Q4-25) |
| Europe P1020A (duty-paid) | ~547.5 USD/mt | ~+62% YTD |
| Europe P1020A (duty-unpaid) | ~470 USD/mt | ~+65% YTD |
| US Midwest DDP | ~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt) | ~+18% YTD |
- Overseas supply: ~2.3 Mt of ex-China capacity slated for 2026 (~0.7 Mt already commissioned, ~1.6 Mt in H2), led by Indonesia/Middle East → a medium-term supply drag; near-term, Middle East energy/geopolitical risk cuts the other way.
- Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.3 Mt/yr; liquid-aluminum share up, casting-ingot output down; weekly output firm on new-capacity ramp + restarts.
- Alumina: operating capacity ~96 Mt/yr; Guangxi/other restarts, supply–demand easing, index down every region on July 8 → cost support keeps eroding.
- Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading downstream operating rate ~63%; secondary-aluminum rate low (~33% in June); aluminum-semis exports resilient (China new export orders back above 50); PV/grid firmer, construction/property weak.
- Spot sentiment: East China steadied on the flat board (just-in-time with light dip-buying); Central China cautious/wait-and-see.
View
- Elevated ex-China premiums + still-low domestic inventory = a floor; but slowing destocking, softer alumina, off-season demand and domestic/overseas new capacity are the medium-term drags.
- Fundamental drivers remain a tug-of-war; price is dominated by “destocking floor / ex-China premiums vs off-season + supply increment + hawkish macro.”
6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market
Data
- East China: shipment willingness steady; downstream buying just-in-time with light dip-buying on the low-level consolidation; trades around SHFE-07 parity to a small premium.
- Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious (just-in-time); early discounts as suppliers firm; trades at a discount to the SHFE-07 basis, with spot–futures traders occasionally widening the spread for arbitrage.
View
- On the pause, East China sentiment held steady while Central China stayed on the soft side; premiums/discounts swing with the board and the arrival pace.
- If destocking re-accelerates and ex-China premiums stay strong, discounts should stabilize further; a firmer dollar and off-season demand cap the near-term upside.
7 · Key Price Drivers
Bullish
- Four-year-high destocking still keeping domestic inventory low (a floor under SHFE).
- Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP, Europe, US Midwest).
- Oil spike (Brent +5.2%, WTI +4.4%) lifting cost-side / power-cost expectations; Middle East supply-risk premium.
- China June PMI back in expansion (50.3); new export orders >50; resilient semis exports.
- LME holding above MA5 with oversold momentum having eased.
Bearish
- Sharply more hawkish Fed (Sept-hike odds ~70%; core PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%); firmer dollar.
- Alumina index falling across all regions → cost support eroding.
- Destocking pace slowing; risk of renewed inventory buildup into the off-season.
- New/restarted capacity ramping (Indonesia/Middle East + China); soft property/construction.
- Medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA40/60; LME all-cycle) still bearish; weak downstream demand.
8 · One-Sentence Market View
Aluminum is consolidating at low levels: China’s four-year-high destocking floor and elevated ex-China premiums keep SHFE firmer than LME and cap the downside, while a sharply more hawkish Fed (September-hike odds ~70%), a firmer dollar, weakening alumina and off-season demand cap the rebound; with the US–Iran oil spike a two-sided risk premium rather than a clean demand driver.
9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s Night Session
- Whether SHFE AL2608 holds the 23,000 area / MA20 (~22,945) and can challenge MA40 (~23,290); downside support MA10 (~22,850) / 22,250 prior low.
- LME 3M (~$3,141): can it reclaim MA10 ($3,146) / MA20 ($3,243)? Support $3,040 / MA5 $3,119.
- DXY (~101.07): break below 100.4 / 99.5 (bullish metals) vs reclaim above 101.2 (bearish).
- Fed: whether FedWatch September-hike odds hold near ~70% + any official commentary; sticky-inflation headlines.
- Inventory: SMM/Mysteel social inventory; does the four-year-high destocking re-accelerate, or does the small build extend?
- Spot premium/discount: East/Central/South China premiums and shipment/purchasing sentiment; MJP/Europe/US premium direction.
- Geopolitics/energy: US–Iran escalation and Brent/WTI path; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor) and ex-China capacity ramp.
Sources: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) spot reviews, alumina index & price board; LME; SHFE; TradingEconomics (LME aluminum, Brent, DXY); CME FedWatch; Reuters/CNBC (US–Iran, oil); China NBS (June PMI). Data window: July 8 spot & night-session close. Some SHFE/A00/ADC12 tick values were consolidating and are framed off the July 7 close where an independent July 8 fix was not confirmed at print; see the in-text notes.
Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice or any basis for trading decisions. Data may be delayed or contain errors; please defer to official exchange releases. Users should exercise independent judgment and bear their own decision risk.
一 · 行情表现
确认 LME 3个月铝，7月8日（确认）
- 收约 3,141 美元/吨，基本持平（约 0%）（较前值 3,139），前期反弹后进入盘整、收十字/内包线。
- 铝价过去一个月跌约 10.9%，但同比仍高约 20.6%，即 6 月高点回落后的低位盘整。
- 勉强站上 MA5（~3,119）；仍在 MA10（~3,146）、MA20（~3,243）、MA40（~3,353）、MA60（~3,383）下方，全周期均线偏空。
确认 沪铝主力 AL2608，7月8日日盘 + 夜盘
- 守住 23,000 一线、基本持平（较前收盘 23,055）；伦铝走平叠加美元走强，盘面区间震荡而非延续反弹。（截稿时夜盘具体点位未获独立确认，基于 7 月 7 日收盘与伦铝走平框定。）
- 结构延续 7 月 7 日：重回 MA5/MA10（~22,850–22,950）并测试 MA20（~22,945），仍受 MA40（~23,290）、MA60（~23,556）压制；中长期均线仍偏空排列。
- 前一交易日为空头减仓/超跌修复特征（7 月 7 日持仓减约 6,600 手），并非需求驱动。
解读 价位判断
- 沪铝处 3–5 月大涨后的低位修复区；近期反弹以空头减仓/超跌为主，目前转入盘整。
- 沪铝： 支撑 22,850（MA10）/ 22,250 前低；阻力 MA40（~23,290）、MA60（~23,556）， 上破 MA20 后 23,290 为关键。
- LME： 支撑 3,040 / MA5 3,119；阻力 MA10 3,146、MA20 3,243。走平使 3,146 成为多空分水岭。
- 沪伦同步盘整，去库支撑下沪铝相对 LME 偏强。
二 · 铝价及相关市场
确认 （对比前一交易日）
- SMM A00 铝锭： 约 22,950 元/吨，基本持平 ↔（跟随盘面走平）。（基于 7 月 7 日 22,940 估算，截稿时 7 月 8 日报价未获独立确认。）
- 华东升贴水： 主流约 SHFE 07 平水至小幅升水；盘面走平下情绪企稳。
- LME 铝： 3,141 美元收，持平 ↔（确认）。
- ADC12（再生铝合金）： 约 24,050 元/吨，基本持平 ↔；废铝偏紧 + 节前备库仍提供成本支撑。
- 氧化铝： 弱势延续 ↓，7 月 8 日 SMM 氧化铝指数 2,751.29 元/吨（−8.33）；各地区指数全线下跌（山东 2,764.72 −9.96、河南 2,790.98 −9.11、山西 2,799.75 −9.89、贵州 2,739.55 −2.72、广西 2,659.77 −10.68）。供需转松持续压低成本端。
- 原油 Brent： 78.02 美元（+5.2%） ↑；WTI 73.52 美元（+4.4%） ↑，美伊冲突升级下急涨。
- 美元指数： 101.07（+0.05%） ↔↑；随 9 月加息定价上升而走强。
解读
- 原铝、A00、ADC12、LME 整体走平/盘整；氧化铝独弱且持续，成本端支撑不断下移。
- 油价急涨对整个板块偏成本支撑，但属风险溢价而非需求信号，对铝的传导是双向的。
三 · 库存
确认
- 国内铝锭社会库存处主流消费地 约 85.9–87.2 万吨区间；上一周去库速度创近 4 年最快，铝锭出库量处多年高位。
- 更近期跟踪显示去库节奏放缓，淡季下周度变化转为小幅累库（约 +0.5 万吨，前值约 +2.4 万吨），在 22,400–22,900 元/吨一带形成脆弱的供应/低价需求平衡。
- 液铝比例仍偏高，铸锭量偏低；铝棒库存在低价补库下有所去化。
解读
- 四年高位去库仍是当前最核心的多头支撑、为沪铝提供底部，但节奏放缓，库存更多是托底而非推价上行。
- 绝对库存仍偏高；淡季 + 铸锭增加下再累库为现实风险。库存“托底、非强驱动”，关注出库能否重新提速。
四 · 宏观因素
确认
- 美元指数 约 101.07（+0.05%）；随 9 月加息概率上升而走强，前期近三周低位的反弹暂歇。
- 美联储（主席 Warsh，反通胀）：市场定价”加息 vs 按兵不动”而非降息，且 7 月 8 日定价更趋鹰派。
| 会议 | 按兵不动 | 加息 25bp | 加息 50bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7月29日 | 70.1% | 29.9% | 无 |
| 9月 | 29.8% | 50.6% | 19.6% |
CME FedWatch（7月8日）：9月加息概率升至约 70%（前一日约 58%，上期简报约 67.6%）。鹰派重定价是本交易日核心宏观变化。
- 通胀： 核心 PCE 约 3.4% / CPI 同比约 4.2%，仍偏黏，支撑鹰派路径。
- 地缘/能源： 美国空袭伊朗目标并取消伊朗石油出口豁免，伊朗有反击报道。Brent +5.2% 至 78.02 美元，WTI +4.4% 至 73.52 美元。 能源成本溢价上升叠加避险情绪。
- 中国： 6 月官方制造业 PMI 50.3（扩张，高于 5 月 50.0）；新出口订单重回 50 上方至 50.1；高技术 PMI 53.5 领先。地产开发仍承压，消费品偏弱（50.2）。”反内卷”/”十五五”情绪仍偏支撑。
解读：对铝影响
- 偏多： 中国 PMI 扩张 + 出口订单回升；油价急涨抬升成本预期；”反内卷”政策情绪。
- 偏空： 美联储更趋鹰派（9月加息概率约 70%）、美元走强、核心通胀黏性、中东升级带来的避险。
- 综合： 多空交织、短期中性但本交易日宏观偏空。关键变量：9月加息定价能否维持约 70%、美元方向（破 100.4/99.5 vs 重回 101.2 上方）、伊朗升级与油价路径。
五 · 基本面
确认：海外区域升水维持高位（供应趋紧预期）
| 地区 | 升水 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| 日本 MJP（Q3 长单） | ~395 美元/吨 | 多年高位（较 25Q4 +359%） |
| 欧洲 P1020A（完税） | ~547.5 美元/吨 | 年内约 +62% |
| 欧洲 P1020A（未完税） | ~470 美元/吨 | 年内约 +65% |
| 美中西部 DDP | ~110.5 美分/磅（~2,435 美元/吨） | 年内约 +18% |
- 海外供应： 2026 年计划投产海外产能约 230 万吨（已投约 70 万吨，H2 约 160 万吨），印尼/中东为主 → 中长期供应利空；近月中东能源/地缘风险则相反。
- 国内供应： 运行产能约 4,530 万吨/年；液铝比例上升、铸锭量下降；本周产量因新产能爬产 + 复产维持偏高。
- 氧化铝： 运行产能约 9,600 万吨/年；广西等复产、供需转松，7 月 8 日各地区指数全线下跌 → 成本支撑持续走弱。
- 下游需求： 高温淡季；龙头下游开工率约 63%；再生铝开工偏低（6 月约 33%）；铝材出口偏韧（中国新出口订单重回 50 上方）；光伏/电网偏强、建筑/地产偏弱。
- 现货情绪： 华东走平盘面下企稳（刚需为主、轻度逢低补库）；华中谨慎观望。
解读
- 海外升水维持高位 + 国内库存仍低 = 底部支撑；但去库放缓、氧化铝走弱、淡季需求与国内外新增产能为中期压制。
- 基本面驱动仍拉锯，价格更多受”去库底部/海外升水 vs 淡季 + 供应增量 + 宏观偏鹰”主导。
六 · 原铝现货市场
确认
- 华东： 出货意愿平稳；下游低位盘整下刚需采购、轻度逢低补库；成交约 SHFE 07 平水至小幅升水。
- 华中（河南）： 高库存 + 订单弱，下游接货谨慎（仅刚需）；初期贴水、供方挺价；成交较 SHFE 07 基差贴水，部分现货商为套价间歇拉宽价差。
解读
- 盘面暂歇下，华东情绪企稳、华中仍偏软；升贴水随盘面与到货节奏波动。
- 若去库重新提速、海外升水维持强势，贴水有望进一步企稳；美元走强与淡季需求限制近端上行。
七 · 关键价格驱动
利多
- 四年高位去库使国内库存仍偏低（为沪铝提供底部）。
- 海外区域升水维持高位（日本 MJP、欧洲、美中西部）。
- 油价急涨（Brent +5.2%、WTI +4.4%）抬升成本/电力成本预期；中东供应风险溢价。
- 中国 6 月 PMI 重回扩张（50.3）；新出口订单 >50；铝材出口偏韧。
- LME 站上 MA5，超跌动能减弱。
利空
- 美联储更趋鹰派（9月加息概率约 70%；核心 PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%）；美元走强。
- 氧化铝各地区指数全线下跌 → 成本支撑走弱。
- 去库节奏放缓；淡季存在再累库风险。
- 海外（印尼/中东）及国内新增/复产产能释放；地产/建筑偏弱。
- 中长期均线（沪铝 MA40/60、LME 全周期）仍偏空；下游需求偏弱。
八 · 一句话观点
铝价低位盘整：国内四年高位去库底部与海外升水高位使沪铝相对 LME 偏强、限制下方，而美联储更趋鹰派（9月加息概率约 70%）、美元走强、氧化铝走弱与淡季需求限制反弹高度，美伊冲突推升的油价更多是双向风险溢价，而非清晰的需求驱动。
九 · 今晚夜盘关注清单
- 沪铝 AL2608 能否守住 23,000 一线 / MA20（~22,945）并上攻 MA40（~23,290）；下方支撑 MA10（~22,850）/ 22,250 前低。
- LME 3M（~3,141 美元）：能否收复 MA10（3,146）/ MA20（3,243）；支撑 3,040 / MA5 3,119。
- 美元指数（~101.07）：破 100.4/99.5（利多金属）还是重回 101.2 上方（利空）。
- 美联储： FedWatch 9月加息概率能否维持约 70% + 官员表态；通胀黏性相关消息。
- 库存： SMM/Mysteel 社会库存，四年高位去库能否重新提速，抑或小幅累库延续。
- 现货升贴水： 华东/华中/华南升贴水与出货、采购情绪；海外 MJP/欧美升水走向。
- 地缘/能源： 美伊升级与 Brent/WTI 路径；氧化铝指数（续跌则成本下移）与海外产能爬产。
数据来源： SMM（上海有色网）现货点评、氧化铝指数与实时盘面；LME；SHFE；TradingEconomics（LME 铝、Brent、美元指数）；CME FedWatch；路透/CNBC（美伊、原油）；中国国家统计局（6月 PMI）。数据口径：7月8日现货与夜盘收盘。部分沪铝/A00/ADC12 因走平且截稿时未获独立的 7 月 8 日报价，系基于 7 月 7 日收盘框定，详见正文标注。
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