A soft June jobs report cools Fed-hike bets and eases the dollar. China's continued destock underpins SHFE.6 月非农疲软令加息预期降温、美元回落;中国持续去库支撑沪铝。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, July 10 (confirmed)

• Close ~$3,146.35 USD/mt, −1.95% (−62.65), a pullback from the July 9 close of $3,210.5 (+2.29%). July 9’s geopolitics-driven spike (session high $3,213.5) faded as US–Iran risk premium eased and oil softened.
• Aluminum is down ~10.6% over the past month but still ~20.8% higher YoY; a low-level consolidation with a two-day round trip: spike, then give-back.
• Sitting around MA10 (~$3,148), above MA5 (~$3,105), still below MA20 (~$3,255), MA40 (~$3,365), MA60 (~$3,391); the July 9 spike briefly cleared near-term averages before the July 10 fade; longer MAs remain bearish.

Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, July 10 day + night session

• Held the 23,050–23,100 area with a slight correction off the July 9 close of 23,105 (+0.20%); the day session eased modestly, tracking LME’s give-back rather than the destock story. (Exact July 10 SHFE close/night-session tick not independently confirmed at print; framed off the confirmed July 9 close of 23,105 and LME’s −1.95% lead.)
• July 9 session detail (confirmed): open 23,130, high 23,220, low 22,985; volume ~75k lots, OI ~231k (+3,146) — position build alongside the LME spike.
• Structure: above MA5/MA10/MA20 (~22,850–22,946), still capped by MA40 (~23,290) and MA60 (~23,556); medium/long-term MAs remain in a bearish alignment. SHFE/LME price ratio ~7.36 (up from 7.28), i.e. SHFE relatively firmer.

View Level assessment

• SHFE remains in the low-level repair zone after the Mar–May rally; the early-July grind higher was destock- and short-covering-driven and is now consolidating after the LME give-back.
• SHFE: support MA20 (~22,946) / MA10 (~22,850); resistance MA40 (~23,290), MA60 (~23,556); 23,290 is the key hurdle.
• LME: support MA5 ($3,105) / $3,120; resistance MA10 ($3,148), MA20 ($3,255). The pivot is $3,148 — holding it keeps the near-term repair intact.
• SHFE and LME consolidate in tandem; domestic destocking keeps SHFE relatively firmer than LME (ratio at 7.36).

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data (vs prior trading day)

• SMM A00 ingot: 22,950 CNY/mt, −90 w/w ↓ (broadly flat day-on-day; tracking the consolidating board). (Latest confirmed SMM print July 9; July 7 was 22,940 +100, July 6 22,840 +80.)
• East China premium/discount: mainstream around SHFE-front parity to +10 CNY/mt premium; steady turnover, destock-supported.
• LME aluminum: $3,146.35 close, −1.95% ↓ (confirmed).
• ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,050 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat ↔; tight scrap supply plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; June theoretical cost ~23,419 CNY/mt (scrap ~90% of cost).
• Alumina: softness persists ↓; national weighted-average smelter-grade spot ~2,740–2,776 CNY/mt area, easing on fresh supply and south–north flows. (Province-level SMM index for July 10 not independently confirmed at print; prior SMM alumina index was 2,751.29 on July 8; direction is lower.)
• Brent crude: ~$76.80 (−3.1%, −$2.45) ↓; WTI ~$71.2 ↓; oil gave back part of the week’s risk premium as US–Iran talks continued (Brent still ~+4.7% on the week).
• Dollar index: ~100.9 (2-week low) ↓; softened after weak June payrolls trimmed Fed-hike bets.

View

• Primary, A00 and ADC12 are broadly flat/firm; LME and Brent gave back the geopolitics spike; alumina remains the lone, persistent laggard, steadily lowering the cost floor.
• The dollar’s slip and cooling hike odds are the constructive shift this session; the oil give-back removes some cost-side support but also lowers the risk-off overhang. Net read-through is mildly firmer than the prior brief.

3 · Inventory

Data

• Domestic primary aluminum ingot social inventory continues to destock: latest tracking ~1.242 Mt (week of July 6), −13 kt vs the prior Thursday, down from a ~1.47 Mt early-May peak (~160 kt+ drawn since). Absolute level still in a “relatively high” band, but the drawdown supports the floor. (SMM; low operating rates and tax-invoice constraints limit warehouse inflows.)
• Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory 35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking (as of July 9).
• LME stocks ~298,775 mt (July 6) — below 300 kt for the first time since 2022, down ~300 kt since the start of 2026; cancelled warrants ~48,950 mt.

View

• Continued destocking (domestic, secondary, and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE.
• Absolute domestic inventory is still elevated and the off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins, watch whether withdrawals hold pace into the high-temperature lull.

4 · Macro Factors

Data

• Dollar index ~100.9, holding below 101 near a 2-week low after the steepest weekly drop since April; softened on the weak June jobs print.
• Fed (Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): the market prices HIKE vs HOLD, not cuts; the June SEP flipped the 2026 path to a hike (median 2026 funds ~3.8%). Pricing turned less hawkish this session on soft payrolls.

Meeting	Hold	+25 bps	+50 bps
July 29	~77%	~23%	N/A
September	~44%	~56%	—

CME FedWatch (July 10): late-July HOLD odds ~77%; September-hike odds eased to ~56% (from ~63%, and ~70% in our last brief) after soft June payrolls. The dovish repricing is the key macro shift of the session.

• US data: June NFP +57k (well below consensus; prior two months revised −74k); unemployment 4.2% (fell for the “wrong reasons” as the labor force shrank). May CPI ~4.2% YoY, core PCE ~3.4% YoY — sticky; Cleveland Fed nowcast pegs June CPI ~3.9%. June CPI due mid-July.
• Geopolitics/energy: US–Iran tensions flared again; Trump said the ceasefire is “effectively over” but negotiations continue. Strait of Hormuz shipping (~20% of global oil/gas) disrupted. Brent −3.1% to ~$76.80, WTI ~$71.2 as talks eased; a two-sided risk premium remains.
• China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion, > May 50.0); production 51.4, new orders 51.2, new export orders 50.1 (back above 50); high-tech PMI 53.5 led (AI-capex boom). Property still a drag (May new-home prices fell faster; retail sales dipped).

View: impact on aluminum

• Bullish: soft US jobs → cooler Fed-hike bets (Sept ~56%) and a softer dollar (DXY ~100.9); China PMI in expansion + export orders recovering; continued destock.
• Bearish: still-sticky core inflation (core PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%) keeping a hike on the table; softer alumina eroding the cost floor; oil give-back removing some cost support; off-season demand.
• Net: short-term neutral-to-firm with a modestly more constructive macro tilt this session (dovish repricing + softer dollar). Key swings: whether Sept-hike pricing stays near ~56% into June CPI, DXY direction (break 100.4/99.5 vs reclaim 101.2+), and the Iran/oil path.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region	Premium	Note
Japan MJP (Q3 contract)	~395 USD/mt	decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid)	~547.5 USD/mt	~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP	~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt)	~+18% YTD

• Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led); near-term offset by tight LME stocks (<300 kt) and Middle East energy/geopolitical risk. SMM framing: “destocking tailwinds vs ex-China capacity headwinds.”
• Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. June ran a ~322 kt deficit; market seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 — structurally supportive.
• Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing → smelter costs lower, margins wide, cost support eroding.
• Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and export recovery, construction/property weak, packaging steady.
• Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +10 premium, steady turnover); Central China softest (persistent discount); South China mildly improved but subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation issues.

View

• Elevated ex-China premiums + continuing destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; but softer alumina, off-season demand and ex-China new capacity are the medium-term drags.
• Fundamental drivers remain a tug-of-war; price is dominated by “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums vs off-season + alumina weakness + macro.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data

• East China: shipment willingness steady; downstream just-in-time buying on the consolidation; trades around SHFE-front parity to +10 CNY/mt premium, destock-supported.
• Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−90 to −140 CNY/mt vs SHFE); suppliers firm on price, spot–futures traders occasionally widen the spread for arbitrage.
• South China: spot improved mildly even as futures eased, but end-use demand remains weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see.

View

• East China sentiment held steady while Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and the arrival pace.
• If destock holds pace and ex-China premiums stay strong, discounts should stabilize; off-season demand and the LME give-back cap the near-term upside.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• Continued destocking (domestic social inventory ~1.242 Mt −13 kt; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME <300 kt) — a floor under SHFE.
• Soft US June jobs (NFP +57k, revisions −74k) cooling Fed-hike bets (Sept ~56%) and softening the dollar (DXY ~100.9, 2-week low).
• Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit; operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
• Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest).
• China June PMI back in expansion (50.3); new export orders >50; resilient semis exports.

Bearish

• Sticky US core inflation (core PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%) keeping a hike on the table; a still-restrictive Warsh Fed.
• Alumina easing on fresh supply → cost support eroding, smelter margins wide.
• Off-season, high-temperature demand lull; leading processor operating rate down to ~61.9%; soft property/construction.
• Medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA40/60; LME MA20/40/60) still bearish; LME gave back its geopolitics spike and oil eased.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s Night Session

1. Whether SHFE AL2608 holds the 23,000 area / MA20 (~22,946) and can challenge MA40 (~23,290); downside support MA10 (~22,850) / 22,250 prior low.
2. LME 3M (~$3,146): can it hold the MA10 pivot ($3,148) and reclaim MA20 ($3,255)? Support MA5 $3,105 / $3,120.
3. DXY (~100.9): extend below 100.4 / 99.5 (bullish metals) vs reclaim above 101.2 (bearish).
4. Fed: whether FedWatch September-hike odds stay near ~56% into June CPI (mid-July); sticky-inflation headlines and any official commentary.
5. Inventory: SMM/Mysteel social inventory — does the destock hold pace or stall into the off-season? LME stock trend below 300 kt.
6. Spot premium/discount: East/Central/South China premiums and shipment/purchasing sentiment; MJP/Europe/US premium direction.
7. Geopolitics/energy: US–Iran / Strait of Hormuz and the Brent/WTI path; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor) and ex-China capacity ramp.