Weekend: LME gave back 1.95% Friday while the destock floor holds. The complex now waits on June CPI and Warsh's testimony.周末版:LME 周五回吐 1.95%,去库底部未破;市场等待 6 月 CPI 与沃什听证的双重考验。

1 · Market Performance

Weekend note No trading Saturday–Sunday. This is a weekend consolidation edition: futures settled Friday, July 10 and reopen with the SHFE Sunday-into-Monday night session (China) and the LME Monday session. Figures below carry the confirmed Friday close; the near-term path is now dominated by next week’s June CPI (Tuesday) and Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony (Tuesday/Wednesday).

Data LME 3-month aluminum, July 10 close (confirmed)

• Close ~$3,146.35 USD/mt, −1.95% (−62.65) on the day — a give-back of the July 9 geopolitics-driven spike ($3,210.5, +2.29%; session high $3,213.5) as US–Iran risk premium eased and oil softened. Net of the two-day round trip, LME is roughly back where the week began.
• Down ~10.6% over the past month, but still ~20.8% higher YoY; a low-level consolidation, not a breakdown.
• Sitting around MA10 (~$3,148), above MA5 (~$3,105), still below MA20 (~$3,255), MA40 (~$3,365), MA60 (~$3,391); the July 9 spike briefly cleared near-term averages before the Friday fade; longer MAs remain bearish.

Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Friday July 10

• Held the 23,050–23,100 area with a slight correction off the July 9 close of 23,105 (+0.20%), tracking LME’s give-back rather than the destock story. (An independent SMM-confirmed Friday July 10 SHFE close was not published over the weekend; framed off the confirmed July 9 close of 23,105 and LME’s −1.95% lead — SMM’s next morning meeting posts Monday, July 14.)
• July 9 session detail (confirmed): open 23,130, high 23,220, low 22,985; volume ~75k lots, OI ~231k (+3,146) — position build alongside the LME spike.
• Structure: above MA5/MA10/MA20 (~22,850–22,946), still capped by MA40 (~23,290) and MA60 (~23,556); medium/long-term MAs remain in a bearish alignment. SHFE/LME ratio ~7.36, i.e. SHFE relatively firmer, destock-supported.

View Level assessment

• SHFE remains in the low-level repair zone after the Mar–May rally; the early-July grind higher was destock- and short-covering-driven and is now consolidating after the LME give-back.
• SHFE: support MA20 (~22,946) / MA10 (~22,850); resistance MA40 (~23,290), MA60 (~23,556); 23,290 is the key hurdle.
• LME: support MA5 ($3,105) / $3,120; resistance MA10 ($3,148), MA20 ($3,255). The pivot is $3,148 — reclaiming and holding it keeps the near-term repair intact.
• SHFE and LME consolidate in tandem; domestic destocking keeps SHFE relatively firmer than LME. Direction into next week hinges on the CPI/Warsh read on the dollar, not on the tape itself.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data (latest confirmed prints; markets closed over the weekend)

• SMM A00 ingot: 22,950 CNY/mt, −90 w/w ↔ (broadly flat day-on-day; tracking the consolidating board). (Latest confirmed SMM print July 9; July 7 was 22,940 +100, July 6 22,840 +80.)
• East China premium/discount: mainstream around SHFE-front parity to +10 CNY/mt premium; steady turnover, destock-supported. Selling-sentiment index ~2.98 (−0.09 w/w), buying-sentiment index ~3.04 (+0.04 w/w).
• LME aluminum: $3,146.35 Friday close, −1.95% ↓ (confirmed).
• ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,050 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat ↔; tight scrap supply plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; June theoretical cost ~23,419 CNY/mt (scrap ~90% of cost).
• Alumina: softness persists ↓; national weighted-average smelter-grade spot ~2,740–2,776 CNY/mt area, easing on fresh supply and south–north flows. (Latest SMM alumina index reference 2,751.29 on July 8; direction is lower.)
• Brent crude: ~$76.80 ↔ (Friday close, −3.1% on the day; still ~+4.7% on the week); WTI ~$71–72 — oil gave back much of the geopolitics risk premium as US–Iran talks continued.
• Dollar index: ~101.0 ↑ — recovered from a one-week low hit Friday morning; the post-jobs softness (DXY ~100.9) partly reversed into the close as traders weighed sticky inflation and geopolitics.

View

• Primary, A00 and ADC12 are broadly flat/firm; LME and Brent gave back the geopolitics spike; alumina remains the lone, persistent laggard, steadily lowering the cost floor.
• The one notable weekend-relevant shift is the dollar firming back toward 101 after Thursday’s soft-jobs dip — a mild give-back of the constructive macro impulse from the prior brief. The CPI print Tuesday is the swing factor.

3 · Inventory

Data

• Domestic primary aluminum ingot social inventory continues to destock: latest tracking ~1.242 Mt (week of July 6), −13 kt vs the prior Thursday, down from a ~1.465 Mt early-May peak (~220–300 kt drawn since, depending on caliber). Warehouse withdrawals recently hit a near-four-year single-week high (~170 kt); SMM frames the destock trend as “fully established, direction unchanged,” with the 1.0 Mt level within reach. (Low operating rates and tax-invoice constraints limit warehouse inflows.)
• Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory 35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking (as of July 9).
• LME stocks below 300 kt (~298,775 mt, July 6) — first time under 300 kt since 2022, down ~300 kt since the start of 2026; tight near-term availability. Macquarie pegs the 2026 global deficit at ~930 kt.

View

• Continued destocking (domestic, secondary, and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE — and it does not pause for the weekend.
• Absolute domestic inventory is still elevated and the off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins — watch whether withdrawals hold pace into the high-temperature lull.

4 · Macro Factors

Data

• Dollar index ~101.0, having recovered from a Friday one-week low; sticky inflation and the “higher-for-longer” narrative are underpinning the greenback into next week’s data.
• Fed (Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): the market prices HIKE vs HOLD, not cuts; the June SEP flipped the 2026 path to a hike (median 2026 funds ~3.8%).

Meeting	Hold	+25 bps
July 29	~75–77%	~23–25%
September	~44%	~56%

CME FedWatch (as of Friday July 10): late-July HOLD odds ~75–77%; September-hike odds ~56%. Pricing softened after the weak June jobs print but did not collapse; the June CPI print Tuesday is the next catalyst.

• Week ahead (the twin test): June CPI Tuesday — consensus sees headline cooling to ~3.9% YoY from 4.2% (the last CPI before the July 29 FOMC). Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony follows — House Financial Services Committee Tuesday, Senate Banking Wednesday — with CPI released ~90 minutes before the hearing, so the inflation read frames his tone. Big-bank earnings also open the Q2 season.
• US data (prior): June NFP +57k (well below consensus; prior two months revised −74k); unemployment 4.2% (labor-force-driven). May CPI ~4.2% YoY, core PCE ~3.4% YoY — sticky.
• Geopolitics/energy: US–Iran tensions flared then eased; ceasefire called “effectively over” but talks continue; Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizing. Brent ~$76.80, WTI ~$71–72 — a two-sided risk premium remains.
• China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); new export orders 50.1 (back above 50); high-tech PMI 53.5 led on AI-capex. Property still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

• Bullish: a cooler-than-4.2% CPI Tuesday would revive the softer-dollar / cooling-hike impulse; China PMI in expansion + export orders recovering; continued destock; LME <300 kt.
• Bearish: the dollar firming back to ~101 pares Thursday’s tailwind; still-sticky core inflation keeps a hike on the table; a hot CPI or hawkish Warsh would lift the dollar; softer alumina eroding the cost floor; off-season demand.
• Net: neutral-to-firm, floor intact, but genuinely event-driven — the CPI/Warsh combination Tuesday–Wednesday is the pivot that will set the dollar and Fed-hike path for the rest of July.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region	Premium	Note
Japan MJP (Q3 contract)	~395 USD/mt	decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid)	~547.5 USD/mt	~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP	~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt)	~+18% YTD

• Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led); near-term offset by tight LME stocks (<300 kt) and residual Middle East energy risk. Watch Middle East smelter production resumptions as Strait of Hormuz navigation normalizes. SMM framing: “destocking tailwinds vs ex-China capacity headwinds.”
• Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. June ran a ~322 kt deficit; market seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (Macquarie ~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
• Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing → smelter costs lower, margins wide, cost support eroding.
• Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and export recovery, construction/property weak, packaging steady.
• Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +10 premium, steady turnover); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −140 discount); South China mildly improved but subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation issues.

View

• Elevated ex-China premiums + continuing destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; but softer alumina, off-season demand and ex-China new capacity are the medium-term drags.
• Fundamental drivers remain a tug-of-war; price is dominated by “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums vs off-season + alumina weakness + macro.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data (latest confirmed session; no weekend trade)

• East China: shipment willingness steady; downstream just-in-time buying on the consolidation; trades around SHFE-front parity to +10 CNY/mt premium, destock-supported. Buying-sentiment index ~3.04 (+0.04 w/w); selling-sentiment index ~2.98 (−0.09 w/w).
• Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −140 CNY/mt vs SHFE); suppliers firm on price; selling index ~2.86, buying index ~2.15.
• South China: spot improved mildly even as futures eased, but end-use demand remains weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see.

View

• East China sentiment held steady while Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and the arrival pace.
• If destock holds pace and ex-China premiums stay strong, discounts should stabilize; off-season demand and the LME give-back cap the near-term upside. Monday’s reopen and Tuesday’s CPI will reset spot direction.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• Continued destocking (domestic social inventory ~1.242 Mt −13 kt; withdrawals a near-four-year weekly high; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME <300 kt) — a floor under SHFE.
• June CPI Tuesday seen cooling to ~3.9% (from 4.2%); a soft print would revive the softer-dollar / cooling-hike impulse.
• Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (Macquarie ~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
• Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest).
• China June PMI back in expansion (50.3); new export orders >50; resilient semis/aluminium-product exports.

Bearish

• Dollar firmed back to ~101 into Friday’s close, paring Thursday’s soft-jobs tailwind; a hot CPI or hawkish Warsh would extend the bounce.
• Sticky US core inflation (core PCE ~3.4% / CPI ~4.2%) keeping a hike on the table; a still-restrictive Warsh Fed.
• Alumina easing on fresh supply → cost support eroding, smelter margins wide.
• Off-season, high-temperature demand lull; leading processor operating rate down to ~61.9%; soft property/construction; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA40/60; LME MA20/40/60) still bearish, and LME gave back its geopolitics spike.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for the Week Ahead / Next Session

1. Whether SHFE AL2608 holds the 23,000 area / MA20 (~22,946) and can challenge MA40 (~23,290) on Monday’s reopen; downside support MA10 (~22,850) / 22,250 prior low.
2. LME 3M (~$3,146): can it reclaim and hold the MA10 pivot ($3,148) and press MA20 ($3,255)? Support MA5 $3,105 / $3,120.
3. June CPI (Tuesday): headline seen cooling to ~3.9% from 4.2% — a soft print is dollar-negative/metals-positive, a hot print the reverse.
4. Chair Warsh’s first testimony (Tue House / Wed Senate): tone on inflation and the hike-vs-hold path; FedWatch September-hike odds around ~56%.
5. Dollar index (~101.0): break back below 100.4 / 99.5 (bullish metals) vs extend above 101.2 (bearish).
6. Inventory: SMM/Mysteel Monday social-inventory update — does the destock hold pace or stall into the off-season? LME stock trend below 300 kt.
7. Spot & fundamentals: East/Central/South China premiums and shipment/purchasing sentiment; MJP/Europe/US premium direction; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor); Middle East smelter restarts as Hormuz normalizes; Brent/WTI path.