Iran's Hormuz closure lifts Brent 4% and resets a supply-risk premium. Aluminium firms into CPI and Warsh day.伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹推升 Brent 4%,供应风险溢价重估;铝价在 CPI 与沃什听证日前走稳。

1 · Market Performance

Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Monday July 13 (daytime close)

• Close 23,030 CNY/mt, −65 (−0.28%); open 22,950, session range 22,910–23,090. A quiet, contained down-day that tracked LME’s overnight give-back rather than the destock story — and the loss was cushioned by China’s accelerating destock.
• Structure: sitting right on MA5 (~23,032), above MA10 (~22,822), still capped by MA30 (~23,591) and MA60 (~24,171); near-term averages have flattened into a base while the medium/long-term MAs stay in a bearish alignment.
• The SHFE night session (Sunday-into-Monday and Monday-into-Tuesday) reopened with the Hormuz supply-risk bid; watch whether it can convert Monday’s daytime softness back above MA5.

Data LME 3-month aluminum, July 13 (confirmed)

• Close ~$3,149/mt, +0.16% (SMM daytime reference); TradingEconomics marks the London settle nearer ~$3,155.65, +0.30% (+9.30). Either way a firm hold, extending the rebound from the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 on fresh supply-risk headlines.
• Down ~6.5% over the past month but still ~+21.6% YoY — a low-level consolidation with an upward bias, not a breakdown.
• Structure: above MA10 (~$3,128.9), just under MA5 (~$3,156.2), still well below MA30 (~$3,331) and MA60 (~$3,459); reclaiming and holding MA5 (~$3,156) opens the door toward the $3,200 threshold tested last week.

View Level assessment

• Both boards sit in a low-level repair zone: SHFE based on the destock floor, LME lifted by the Hormuz/energy supply-risk premium and sub-300 kt stocks.
• SHFE: support 22,910 / MA10 (~22,822); resistance 23,090 then MA30 (~23,591). The pivot is holding 23,000 / MA5 — a night-session close back above it keeps the base intact.
• LME: support MA10 (~$3,129) / the $3,085 four-month low; resistance MA5 (~$3,156) then $3,200 / MA20-area $3,255. The pivot is $3,156 — clearing it re-tests $3,200.
• Direction into the US session hinges on the CPI/Warsh read on the dollar and on whether the Hormuz supply premium sticks — not on the tape itself.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data (latest confirmed prints, Monday July 13)

• SMM A00 ingot: 23,120 CNY/mt, +170 d/d ↑ — a firm bid, outpacing the futures dip as spot tightened on the destock and supply-risk premium. (vs 22,950 area on the July 9–10 prints.)
• East China premium/discount: mainstream parity to +20 CNY/mt premium ↑, turnover improved; selling-sentiment index ~3.04 (+0.06), buying-sentiment index ~3.10 (+0.06) — both firmer.
• LME aluminum: ~$3,149 Monday close, +0.16% ↑ (SMM); London settle ~$3,155.65 (+0.30%).
• ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,000–24,050 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat ↔; tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support.
• Alumina: softness persists ↓; national weighted-average smelter-grade spot ~2,740–2,750 CNY/mt, easing on fresh supply — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor.
• Brent crude: ~$78.82 ↑ (Sept futures; +~4% Monday, ~+4.7% on the week) — Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice” (US CENTCOM rejects the claim) after a fourth round of US–Iran strikes, reviving the supply-disruption premium.
• Dollar index: ~101.0 ↔ — range-bound (100.5–102 for three weeks) as traders wait on the June CPI and Warsh; the oil spike is a mild upside risk via the inflation channel.

View

• Primary and A00 firmed (A00 +170), premiums widened and sentiment improved — the physical market read the Hormuz escalation and destock as supportive.
• LME/Brent carry a renewed supply-risk premium; alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor; the dollar is coiled ahead of the data. The one two-sided swing factor is oil: bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, bearish via the inflation → hawkish-Fed → stronger-dollar channel that today’s CPI will test.

3 · Inventory

Data

• China aluminum ingot inventory (major consumption areas) continues to destock, and accelerated: ~1.047 Mt on Monday July 13, −51 kt w/w (and −31 kt vs the prior Thursday). Warehouse withdrawals recently hit a four-year single-week high; with the pace picking up, SMM’s long-flagged 1.0 Mt level is now within sight. (A broader SMM social-inventory caliber tracked ~1.242 Mt a week earlier; the two series run ~150–200 kt apart — the direction on both is firmly lower.)
• Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory ~35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking (as of July 9), amid tax-invoice circulation constraints.
• LME stocks fell to ~285,000 mt — extending below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), down ~300 kt since the start of 2026; tight near-term availability. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit at ~930 kt.

View

• Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE — and it does not pause for the macro.
• Absolute domestic inventory is off its highs but the off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk into the high-temperature lull; inventory cushions and underpins — the key tell is whether withdrawals hold pace toward the 1 Mt mark.

4 · Macro Factors

Data

• Dollar index ~101.0, range-bound (100.5–102) for three weeks; the market is coiled ahead of the twin event risk, with the oil spike a mild upside risk via inflation.
• Fed (Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): the market prices HIKE vs HOLD, not cuts; the June SEP flipped the 2026 path to a hike (9 of 18 officials projected a 2026 hike; median 2026 funds ~3.8%).

Meeting	Hold	+25 bps
July 29	~70–75%	~25–30%
September	~35–40%	~60–65%

CME FedWatch (into July 14): late-July HOLD odds ~70–75%; September-hike odds firmed back toward ~60–65% (from ~56% after the soft June jobs print) as Monday’s oil spike revived inflation fears. Today’s CPI is the swing catalyst.

• Today — the twin test (Tuesday July 14): June CPI at 8:30 ET — consensus sees headline −0.1% m/m, ~3.9% YoY (from 4.2%), the soft print driven by a ~10% June gasoline decline (from the earlier Iran ceasefire); core CPI seen sticky at ~2.9% YoY. Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony lands ~90 minutes later (House Financial Services Tuesday, Senate Banking Wednesday) — CPI frames his tone. Big-bank Q2 earnings also kick off.
• Geopolitics/energy (the weekend/Monday escalation): a fourth round of US–Iran strikes; Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice” (US CENTCOM rejects) — Brent +~4% to ~$79, a “Seoul Black Monday” (Kospi −8.95%, SK Hynix −15%) rippled through Asian equities, and gold slipped to ~$4,064 (a rates-up tell).
• US data (prior): June NFP +57k (well below consensus; prior two months revised −74k); unemployment 4.2%. May CPI ~4.2% YoY, core PCE ~3.4% — sticky.
• China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); new export orders 50.1 (>50); high-tech PMI 53.5 led on AI-capex. Property still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

• Bullish: the Hormuz supply-risk premium (energy costs, ex-China smelter risk); a cooler-than-4.2% CPI would revive the softer-dollar impulse; accelerating destock; LME stocks 285 kt; China PMI in expansion.
• Bearish: the oil spike threatens to re-accelerate inflation and lift September-hike odds/the dollar; still-sticky ~2.9% core CPI keeps a hike on the table; a hot CPI or hawkish Warsh would strengthen the dollar; risk-off equity contagion; softer alumina; off-season demand.
• Net: neutral-to-firm, floor intact, but genuinely event-driven — the oil-inflation channel and the CPI/Warsh combination today are the pivot that sets the dollar and Fed-hike path.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region	Premium	Note
Japan MJP (Q3 contract)	~395 USD/mt	decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid)	~547.5 USD/mt	~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP	~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt)	~+18% YTD

• Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Hormuz escalation and elevated European/Asian natural-gas costs — a fresh energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters, offsetting the capacity headwind. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
• Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. June ran a ~322 kt deficit; the market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
• Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing → smelter costs lower, margins wide, cost support eroding.
• Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and export recovery, construction/property weak, packaging steady.
• Spot sentiment: East China firmest and improving (parity to +20 premium, better turnover, sentiment up); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −150 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation issues.

View

• Elevated ex-China premiums + a fresh Hormuz/energy supply risk + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; softer alumina, off-season demand and ex-China new capacity remain the medium-term drags.
• Price stays a tug-of-war: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / supply-risk premium vs off-season + alumina weakness + macro/inflation risk.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data (Monday July 13 session)

• East China: shipment willingness steady, downstream buying improved on the firm bid; trades parity to +20 CNY/mt premium, destock-supported. Buying-sentiment index ~3.10 (+0.06), selling-sentiment index ~3.04 (+0.06) — both firmer.
• Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −150 CNY/mt vs SHFE); suppliers firm on price.
• South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see, tax-invoice circulation a constraint.

View

• East China sentiment firmed with the A00 rise; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace.
• If destock holds pace toward 1 Mt and the Hormuz premium sticks, discounts should stabilize; off-season demand and the macro risk cap the near-term upside. Today’s CPI/Warsh reset spot direction.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• Accelerating destock (major-area inventory ~1.047 Mt, −51 kt w/w, 1 Mt in sight; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME stocks down to 285 kt) — a floor under SHFE.
• Fresh Hormuz/energy supply-risk premium — Iran declared the Strait closed, Brent +~4% to ~$79; a risk to ex-China smelter supply and a cost tailwind.
• Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
• Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest).
• June CPI seen cooling to ~3.9% (from 4.2%); a soft headline would revive the softer-dollar impulse. China June PMI in expansion (50.3); export orders >50.

Bearish

• The oil spike threatens to re-accelerate inflation and lift September-hike odds (~60–65%) and the dollar — a hot CPI or hawkish Warsh today extends that.
• Sticky US core inflation (core CPI ~2.9% / core PCE ~3.4%) keeping a hike on the table; a still-restrictive Warsh Fed.
• Risk-off contagion (Monday’s “Seoul Black Monday”, Kospi −8.95%) and a stronger dollar could pressure metals.
• Alumina easing on fresh supply → cost support eroding, smelter margins wide.
• Off-season demand lull; leading processor operating rate ~61.9%; soft property/construction; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA30/60; LME MA30/60) still bearish.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s / Today’s Session

1. Whether SHFE AL2608 holds 23,000 / MA5 (~23,032) and can reclaim 23,090 → MA30 (~23,591) on the night session; downside support 22,910 / MA10 (~22,822).
2. LME 3M (~$3,149): can it reclaim and hold MA5 (~$3,156) and press $3,200? Support MA10 (~$3,129) / the $3,085 four-month low.
3. June CPI (8:30 ET today): headline seen ~3.9% (from 4.2%), core ~2.9% — a soft print is dollar-negative/metals-positive, a hot print (or hot core) the reverse.
4. Chair Warsh’s first testimony (~90 min after CPI): tone on inflation and the hike-vs-hold path; FedWatch September-hike odds ~60–65%.
5. Dollar index (~101.0): break below 100.5 (bullish metals) vs extend above 102 (bearish); the oil-inflation read is the driver.
6. Hormuz/oil: whether Iran’s closure claim escalates or de-escalates; Brent above/below ~$79 — a two-sided risk premium for aluminum.
7. Inventory & spot: SMM destock pace toward 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 285 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).