June CPI cools far more than expected and clears the twin test. The dollar slips and aluminium firms.6 月 CPI 远低于预期,双重考验偏鸽落地;美元走弱,铝价走稳。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, Tuesday July 14 (confirmed)

• Close $3,175.60/mt, +0.63% (+19.95) (TradingEconomics) — a firm advance as the soft June CPI knocked the dollar to ~100.7 and revived the softer-dollar/metals-positive impulse. The whole base-metals complex rallied: copper +0.72%, zinc +0.33%, lead +0.32%, nickel +1.26%, tin +1.84%.
• Down ~5.9% over the past month but still ~+23.0% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 now presses the $3,200 threshold, the level that has capped the last two weeks.
• Structure: back above MA5 (~$3,158) and MA10 (~$3,130), still below MA30 (~$3,320) and MA60 (~$3,450) — a low-level repair with the near-term averages turning up; clearing and holding $3,200 opens the MA20-area (~$3,250).

Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Tuesday July 14

• The daytime session closed near the prior day’s ~23,030–23,080 (Monday’s confirmed close was 23,030), a quiet, contained tape ahead of the 20:30 Beijing (8:30 ET) US CPI. View The night session (July 14 into 15) firmed on the dovish CPI and the weaker dollar, tracking LME’s rally back toward the 23,100–23,200 area — the follow-through the daytime tape lacked.
• Structure: reclaiming MA5 (~23,050) and holding above MA10 (~22,850), still capped by MA30 (~23,500) and MA60 (~24,100); near-term averages have flattened into a base and are turning up while the medium/long-term MAs stay bearish-aligned.

View Level assessment

• Both boards sit in a low-level repair zone that just got a macro tailwind: SHFE based on the destock floor and now lifted by the softer dollar; LME through MA5/MA10 and pressing $3,200.
• SHFE: support MA5 (~23,050) / MA10 (~22,850); resistance 23,200 then MA30 (~23,500). The pivot is holding the reclaimed 23,000+ and whether the night-session firmness carries into the day.
• LME: support MA5 (~$3,158) / MA10 (~$3,130); resistance $3,200 then MA20-area (~$3,250). The pivot is $3,200 — a clean break re-opens the mid-June shelf.
• Direction now leans on whether the dollar stays soft post-CPI and whether the elevated oil (Hormuz) re-injects an inflation scare — the tape has the macro wind at its back for the first time in weeks.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data (latest confirmed prints, around Tuesday July 14)

• SMM A00 ingot: ~23,120 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat d/d ↔ — holding the prior day’s firm bid; spot stayed tight on the destock, with the futures rally on the dovish CPI supportive. (Monday’s print was 23,120, +170 d/d.)
• East China premium/discount: mainstream parity to +20 CNY/mt premium ↔, turnover steady-to-improved; selling/buying-sentiment indices firm (~3.04 / ~3.10 area).
• LME aluminum: $3,175.60, +0.63% ↑ — the confirmed July 14 advance on the softer dollar.
• ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,000–24,050 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat ↔; tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support.
• Alumina: softness persists ↓; national weighted-average smelter-grade spot ~2,760 CNY/mt (SHFE alumina 2609 ~2,715), easing on fresh supply — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor.
• Brent crude: $84.73, +1.72% ↑ (WTI $79.34, +1.5%) — a one-month high; the US reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports (4pm ET) and ADNOC reported two tankers hit in the Strait, even as Trump abandoned the 20% Hormuz cargo fee after shipping-industry pushback. Supply-risk premium intact.
• Dollar index: ~100.7, −0.5%+ ↓ (off an intraday 101.32) — the soft CPI dented Fed-hike bets and pushed the DXY to a two-week low; a clear metals tailwind.

View

• The physical bid held firm while the macro flipped supportive: a softer dollar and LME rally revived the metals-positive impulse, and A00/premiums stayed steady on the destock.
• Alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor. The one two-sided swing factor is still oil: bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, but the elevated Brent ($84.73) keeps a residual inflation tail that a future hot print could re-weaponize — for now the dovish CPI dominates.

3 · Inventory

Data

• China aluminum ingot inventory (major consumption areas) continues to destock: ~1.047 Mt (Monday July 13), −51 kt w/w — warehouse withdrawals recently hit a four-year single-week high, and with the pace holding, SMM’s long-flagged 1.0 Mt level is now within sight. Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May and had drawn to ~1.165 Mt by end-June — a cumulative ~300–400 kt destock. (A broader SMM social-inventory caliber runs ~150–200 kt above the major-area series; both trend firmly lower.)
• Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory ~35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking, amid tax-invoice circulation constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
• LME stocks ~285,000 mt — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), down ~300 kt since the start of 2026; tight near-term availability. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.

View

• Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE — and it does not pause for the macro; now it has a supportive macro on top of it.
• Absolute domestic inventory is off its highs but the high-temperature off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins — the key tell is whether withdrawals hold pace toward the 1 Mt mark.

4 · Macro Factors

Data

• June CPI (released July 14) — the dovish surprise: headline −0.4% m/m (the biggest monthly drop since April 2020) → 3.5% YoY, well below the ~3.8% consensus and down from 4.2% — the first annual decline since January. Core CPI flat m/m → 2.6% YoY (vs ~2.9% est, from 2.9%). Energy −5.7% m/m (gasoline the driver) but still +15.7% YoY. A broad, clean cooldown.
• Fed (Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): in his first congressional testimony (House Financial Services Tue; Senate Banking Wed), Warsh pledged a “vigilant fight” to 2% and “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” but — consistent with dropping the Fed’s forecasting game — offered no forward guidance on rates. Markets read the CPI, not the testimony: stocks hit session highs (Nasdaq +1%), yields sharply lower.

Meeting	Hold	+25 bps
July 29	~88%	~12%
September	~41%	~59%

CME FedWatch (post-CPI, into July 15): July-hike odds collapsed to ~12% (from ~40%) and September-hike odds eased to ~59% (from ~74%). The hike panic from Monday’s oil spike has been largely unwound.

• Dollar index ~100.7, −0.5%+ — a two-week low as the soft CPI dented hike bets; metals-supportive.
• Geopolitics/energy: the US reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports (limited to Iran-linked cargo) and struck fresh targets; ADNOC reported two tankers hit in the Strait (one mariner killed). Trump abandoned the 20% Hormuz cargo fee after shipping-industry opposition, saying Gulf states would invest in the US instead. Brent $84.73 (one-month high). Gold ~$4,010, bitcoin ~$63K.
• US data (prior): June NFP +57k (weak; prior two months revised −74k); unemployment 4.2%.
• China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); new export orders 50.1 (>50); high-tech PMI 53.5 led on AI-capex. Property still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

• Bullish: the dovish CPI revived the softer-dollar impulse (DXY ~100.7); July-hike odds down to ~12%; a broad metals rally; accelerating destock; LME stocks 285 kt; China PMI in expansion; the Hormuz supply-risk premium for ex-China smelters.
• Bearish: elevated oil (Brent $84.73) still threatens to re-accelerate inflation and keep September-hike odds (~59%) alive; annual energy CPI still +15.7% YoY; a still-restrictive Warsh Fed with a September hike more-likely-than-not; softer alumina; off-season demand.
• Net: firm — the macro cleared to the metals-positive side for the first time in weeks (dovish CPI + softer dollar on top of the destock floor); the residual tail is the oil-inflation channel and a sticky-ish path that keeps a September hike in play.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region	Premium	Note
Japan MJP (Q3 contract)	~395 USD/mt	decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid)	~547.5 USD/mt	~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP	~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt)	~+18% YTD

• Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Hormuz escalation and elevated European/Asian natural-gas costs — a fresh energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters offsetting the capacity headwind. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
• Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. June ran a ~322 kt deficit; the market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
• Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (~2,760) → smelter costs lower, margins wide, cost support eroding.
• Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and export recovery, construction/property weak, packaging steady.
• Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +20 premium, steady-to-better turnover); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −150 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation issues.

View

• Elevated ex-China premiums + a fresh Hormuz/energy supply risk + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop, now with a softer dollar as tailwind; softer alumina, off-season demand and ex-China new capacity remain the medium-term drags.
• Price stays a tug-of-war, but the balance tipped bullish today: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / softer dollar vs off-season + alumina weakness + oil-inflation tail.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data (around Tuesday July 14)

• East China: shipment willingness steady, downstream buying steady-to-better on the firm bid and futures rally; trades parity to +20 CNY/mt premium, destock-supported. Sentiment indices firm.
• Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −150 CNY/mt vs SHFE); suppliers firm on price.
• South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see, tax-invoice circulation a constraint.

View

• East China held firmest with the board firming into the dovish CPI; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace.
• If destock holds pace toward 1 Mt and the softer dollar sticks, discounts should stabilize and premiums firm; off-season demand caps the near-term upside. The post-CPI risk-on tone sets a supportive spot direction into the session.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• Dovish June CPI + softer dollar (DXY ~100.7): headline 3.5% (from 4.2%), core 2.6%; July-hike odds down to ~12%; the softer-dollar/metals-positive impulse revived and a broad base-metals rally (LME AL +0.63% to $3,175.60).
• Accelerating destock (major-area ~1.047 Mt, −51 kt w/w, 1 Mt in sight; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME stocks ~285 kt) — a floor under SHFE.
• Persistent Hormuz/energy supply-risk premium — US reimposed an Iran-port blockade, tankers hit, Brent $84.73 (one-month high); a risk to ex-China smelter supply and a cost tailwind.
• Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
• Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest).
• China June PMI in expansion (50.3); export orders >50.

Bearish

• Elevated oil (Brent $84.73) still threatens to re-accelerate inflation and keep September-hike odds (~59%) alive; annual energy CPI still +15.7% YoY — a hot next print could re-arm the hawkish trade.
• A still-restrictive Warsh Fed (a September hike more-likely-than-not) and no dovish guidance in the testimony.
• Alumina easing on fresh supply (~2,760) → cost support eroding, smelter margins wide.
• Off-season demand lull; leading processor operating rate ~61.9%; soft property/construction; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA30/60; LME MA30/60) still bearish.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s / Today’s Session

1. Whether SHFE AL2608 holds the reclaimed 23,000+ / MA5 (~23,050) and can press 23,200 → MA30 (~23,500); downside support MA10 (~22,850).
2. LME 3M ($3,175.60): can it clear and hold $3,200 and reach the MA20-area (~$3,250)? Support MA5 (~$3,158) / MA10 (~$3,130).
3. Dollar index (~100.7): does the post-CPI slide extend (bullish metals) or does elevated oil pull it back above 101? A two-week low is the near-term reference.
4. Fed path: FedWatch September-hike odds (~59%) and any headlines from Warsh’s Senate Banking testimony (Wed); the July-hike scare has faded to ~12%.
5. Hormuz/oil: whether the Iran-port blockade escalates and Brent holds above/below ~$84 — a two-sided risk premium (cost-bullish for metal, inflation-bearish via the Fed).
6. Inventory & spot: SMM destock pace toward 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 285 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
7. Next US data & China: any upcoming inflation/labor prints and China property/infrastructure signals that could confirm or challenge the dovish read.