A cool June PPI confirms the soft CPI. LME fades again at $3,200 while the destock floor holds.6 月 PPI 回落确认 CPI 降温;LME 再度在 3,200 美元受阻,去库底部仍在。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, Wednesday July 15 (confirmed)

• Close $3,147.50/mt, −0.88% (−$28.10) (TradingEconomics) — a give-back of most of Tuesday’s rally. Despite a second cool inflation print (June PPI) and a soft dollar, the metal was rejected at the $3,200 threshold it pressed on Tuesday and slipped back below MA10. Base metals turned mixed after Tuesday’s broad rally as some post-CPI froth came off.
• Down ~7.3% over the past month but still ~+22.1% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 stalled at $3,200 — the level that has now capped the last three weeks — and pulled back to the MA5 (~$3,150) area.
• Structure: back to/just below MA5 (~$3,150) and MA10 (~$3,140), still well below MA20 (~$3,240), MA30 (~$3,300) and MA60 (~$3,440) — a low-level repair that failed its first test of $3,200; holding $3,140–3,150 keeps the base intact, losing it exposes the mid-$3,080s low.

Data SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Wednesday July 15

• The night session into July 15 had firmed toward 23,100–23,200 on the dovish CPI; the July 15 daytime consolidated in that band. View The night session (July 15 into 16) softened in sympathy with LME’s give-back, easing back toward the 23,000–23,080 area — the follow-through faded as the board rejected the top of its range.
• Structure: hovering around MA5 (~23,080) and holding above MA10 (~22,950), still capped by MA30 (~23,450) and MA60 (~24,050); near-term averages remain flattened into a base while the medium/long-term MAs stay bearish-aligned. Range still ~22,950–23,200.

View Level assessment

• Both boards sit in a low-level repair zone with a supportive macro but a rejected top: SHFE floored by the destock, LME turned back at $3,200.
• SHFE: support MA5 (~23,080) / MA10 (~22,950); resistance 23,200 then MA30 (~23,450). The pivot is holding 23,000 and whether daytime buyers step back in after the soft night.
• LME: support MA5 (~$3,150) / MA10 (~$3,140); resistance $3,200 then MA20-area (~$3,240). The pivot is whether $3,140–3,150 holds — a second failure at $3,200 with a break of MA10 would re-expose the mid-$3,080s.
• Direction now leans on whether today’s June retail sales extends the disinflation risk-on tone or the September-hike odds (~63%) and elevated oil keep the dollar from falling further.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data (latest confirmed prints, around Wednesday July 15)

• SMM A00 ingot: ~23,130 CNY/mt, broadly flat d/d ↔ — holding the prior day’s firm bid; spot stayed tight on the destock, but the futures give-back capped any advance. (Tuesday’s print was ~23,120.)
• East China premium/discount: mainstream parity to +20 CNY/mt premium ↔, turnover steady; selling/buying-sentiment indices holding around the ~3.0 area.
• LME aluminum: $3,147.50, −0.88% ↓ — the confirmed July 15 give-back, rejected at $3,200.
• ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,000–24,050 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat ↔; the AL2609 alloy contract settled ~22,980 (+0.15%). Tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; overseas ADC12 offers eased slightly to ~$3,050–3,190/mt.
• Alumina: softness persists ↓; national weighted-average smelter-grade spot ~2,750 CNY/mt, easing on fresh supply — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor.
• Crude: WTI $79.73, +0.10% ↔ (Brent ~$84.5) — holding a one-month-high shelf; the US–Iran/Hormuz supply-risk premium is intact but oil went orderly, no fresh spike.
• Dollar index: ~100.6 (100.588), roughly flat/soft ↔ — held its two-week low as the cool PPI kept hike bets subdued; the 2-year yield slid 5 bp to 4.17%. Broadly metals-neutral-to-supportive.

View

• The physical bid held firm on the destock while the board gave back Tuesday’s macro pop: A00 and premiums flat as spot stayed tight but futures rejected the range top.
• Alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor. Oil is the two-sided swing factor — bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, but its elevated level keeps a residual inflation tail alive even as two cool prints (CPI, PPI) dominate for now.

3 · Inventory

Data

• China aluminum ingot inventory (major consumption areas) continues to destock: ~1.047 Mt (Monday July 13), −51 kt w/w — warehouse withdrawals recently hit a four-year single-week high (~170 kt), and with the pace holding, SMM’s long-flagged 1.0 Mt level is now within sight (Thursday’s fresh print due today). Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May and had drawn to ~1.165 Mt by end-June — a cumulative ~300–400 kt destock. (A broader SMM social-inventory caliber runs ~150–200 kt above the major-area series; both trend firmly lower.)
• Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory ~35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking, amid tax-invoice circulation constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
• LME stocks ~285,000 mt — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), −43% YTD; tight near-term availability. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.

View

• Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE — it does not pause for the macro, and today it kept the board from following LME’s give-back one-for-one.
• Absolute domestic inventory is off its highs but the high-temperature off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins — the key tell is whether today’s print confirms withdrawals holding pace toward the 1 Mt mark.

4 · Macro Factors

Data

• June PPI (released July 15) — the disinflation confirmation: headline −0.3% m/m (vs a flat consensus; the first monthly drop since last summer) → 5.5% YoY (from 6.0%). Core PPI −0.2% m/m (vs +0.4% est) → 4.7% YoY (from 4.9%); core-less-trade-services just +0.1%. A second straight cool print that ratifies Tuesday’s soft June CPI and turns one print into a two-print disinflation trend.
• Fed (Chair Warsh, anti-inflation): in his Senate Banking testimony (Wed), Warsh again pledged a “vigilant fight” to 2% but — consistent with dropping the Fed’s forecasting game — offered no forward guidance on rates. Markets kept reading the data: the 2-year yield fell 5 bp to 4.17%, equity futures firmed (S&P +0.17%), gold +0.46% to $4,058.78.

Meeting	Hold	+25 bps
July 29	~88%	~12%
September	~37%	~63%

CME FedWatch (post-PPI, into July 16): July-hike odds hold at ~12% and September-hike odds ~63% — eased from ~75% pre-CPI, but still more-likely-than-not; further out the market keeps additional hikes priced for Q4.

• Dollar index ~100.6 (100.588), flat/soft — held its two-week low; metals-neutral-to-supportive.
• Geopolitics/energy: the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff (Iran-port blockade, prior tanker strikes) keeps a supply-risk premium, but oil traded orderly: WTI $79.73 (+0.10%), Brent ~$84.5. Gold ~$4,059, bitcoin ~$64–65K.
• US data (ahead): June retail sales due today (Thursday July 16) — the next read on the consumer and the near-term dollar/rate driver.
• China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); new export orders 50.1 (>50); high-tech PMI 53.5 led on AI-capex. Property still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

• Bullish: a second cool inflation print (PPI confirms CPI) keeps July-hike odds ~12% and the dollar near a two-week low (~100.6); 2-year yield down to 4.17%; accelerating destock; LME stocks 285 kt; China PMI in expansion; the Hormuz supply-risk premium for ex-China smelters.
• Bearish: LME rejected at $3,200 (−0.88%); September-hike odds still ~63% (more-likely-than-not) with more hikes priced into Q4; elevated oil (WTI ~$80) an inflation tail; softer alumina; off-season demand.
• Net: balanced/firm — the macro stayed metals-friendly (two cool prints, softer-ish dollar on top of the destock floor), but the price action says consolidation, not breakout: $3,200 turned the LME back and the September hike is still on the table. Today’s retail sales is the swing.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region	Premium	Note
Japan MJP (Q3 contract)	~395 USD/mt	decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid)	~547.5 USD/mt	~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP	~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt)	~+18% YTD

• Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Hormuz escalation and elevated European/Asian natural-gas costs — a fresh energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters offsetting the capacity headwind. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
• Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. June ran a ~322 kt deficit; the market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
• Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (~2,750) → smelter costs lower, margins wide, cost support eroding.
• Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and export recovery, construction/property weak, packaging steady.
• Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +20 premium, steady turnover); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −150 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation issues.

View

• Elevated ex-China premiums + a Hormuz/energy supply risk + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; softer alumina, off-season demand and ex-China new capacity remain the medium-term drags.
• Price stays a tug-of-war, and after Tuesday’s tip bullish the balance settled back to neutral-firm: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / softer-ish dollar vs off-season + alumina weakness + oil-inflation tail + a rejected $3,200.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data (around Wednesday July 15)

• East China: shipment willingness steady, downstream buying steady on the firm bid; trades parity to +20 CNY/mt premium, destock-supported. Sentiment indices holding around ~3.0.
• Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −150 CNY/mt vs SHFE); suppliers firm on price.
• South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see, tax-invoice circulation a constraint.

View

• East China held firmest on the destock even as the board gave back Tuesday’s pop; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace.
• If destock holds pace toward 1 Mt and the dollar stays soft, discounts should stabilize and premiums firm; off-season demand and the rejected $3,200 cap the near-term upside. The post-data risk tone into today’s retail sales sets the near-term spot direction.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• A second cool inflation print (June PPI −0.3% m/m to 5.5%, core −0.2% to 4.7%) confirming the soft CPI + a softer-ish dollar (DXY ~100.6): July-hike odds hold ~12%, 2-year yield 4.17%; a two-print disinflation trend.
• Accelerating destock (major-area ~1.047 Mt, −51 kt w/w, 1 Mt in sight; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME stocks ~285 kt, −43% YTD) — a floor under SHFE.
• Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
• Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest); Hormuz/energy supply-risk premium for ex-China smelters.
• China June PMI in expansion (50.3); export orders >50.

Bearish

• LME rejected at $3,200 (−0.88% to $3,147.50) — the third weekly failure at the range top; a break of MA10 (~$3,140) re-exposes the mid-$3,080s.
• September-hike odds still ~63% (more-likely-than-not) with further hikes priced into Q4; a still-restrictive Warsh Fed and no dovish guidance in the Senate testimony.
• Elevated oil (WTI ~$80) still an inflation tail; a hot June retail-sales print could re-arm the hawkish trade.
• Alumina easing on fresh supply (~2,750) → cost support eroding; off-season demand lull, processor rate ~61.9%; soft property/construction; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA30/60; LME MA20/30/60) still bearish.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s / Today’s Session

1. Whether SHFE AL2608 holds 23,000 / MA5 (~23,080) after the soft night and can re-press 23,200 → MA30 (~23,450); downside support MA10 (~22,950).
2. LME 3M ($3,147.50): does $3,140–3,150 (MA5/MA10) hold, or does a second failure at $3,200 open the mid-$3,080s? Reclaiming $3,200 is the bullish tell.
3. June retail sales (today, 8:30 ET): a cool print extends the disinflation risk-on tone (bullish metals); a hot one re-arms the hawkish trade and lifts the dollar.
4. Dollar index (~100.6): does it hold the two-week low (bullish metals) or does elevated oil / hot data pull it back above 101?
5. Fed path: FedWatch September-hike odds (~63%) and any residual Warsh headlines; the July-hike scare stays at ~12%.
6. Inventory & spot: today’s SMM destock print toward 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 285 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
7. Hormuz/oil & China: whether the Iran-port standoff re-escalates and Brent/WTI holds its shelf; China property/infrastructure signals.