一 · 行情表现
确认 LME 3个月铝，7月17日周五（确认；周末休市，为最新数据）
- 收 3,164.65 美元/吨，−0.43%（约 −13.75）（TradingEconomics）——周五小幅回吐，此后周六、周日休市无新价。周内两份降温数据（CPI、PPI）+ 美元周线走软支撑金属，但铝价再度逼近 3,200 关口未能有效突破。基本金属整体偏强震荡。
- 过去一个月跌约 6.9%，但同比仍高 约 +20%；自 7 月初四个月低点约 3,085 美元的反弹得以守住大部，于 3,200 一线反复受阻——近数周的压制位。
- 结构：位于 MA5（~3,155） 与 MA10（~3,150） 上方，仍受 MA20（~3,220）、MA30（~3,290）、MA60（~3,430） 压制——低位修复延续、但上攻 3,200 仍未果；守住 3,140–3,150 则底部完好，失守则暴露 3,080 中段低点。
解读 沪铝主力 AL2608，7月17日周五（休市，估算；周一重启）
- 因今日为周日、沪铝周末休市，最新确认收盘仍为周五日盘。解读 结合伦铝周四冲高后周五小幅回落、美元偏软，沪铝主力周五日盘料收于 23,150–23,250 区间偏强整理（SMM 7 月 14 日 AL2608 收 23,075）。周一开盘将首度消化周末霍尔木兹升级与油价维持高位。
- 结构（估）：徘徊于 MA5（~23,150） 附近、站上 MA10（~23,050），仍受 MA30（~23,400）、MA60（~24,000） 压制；近端均线走平筑底，中长期均线仍偏空排列。区间仍约 23,000–23,300。
解读 价位判断
- 两市均处低位修复区，宏观（软美元、去库）支撑但顶部受阻：沪铝以去库为底，伦铝于 3,200 反复折返。
- 沪铝： 支撑 MA5（~23,150）/ MA10（~23,050）；阻力 23,300 后接 MA30（~23,400）。分水岭在周一重启能否守住 23,000 并放量上攻 23,300。
- LME： 支撑 MA5（~3,155）/ MA10（~3,150）；阻力 3,200 后接 MA20 一带（~3,220）。分水岭在能否有效站上 3,200——多次受阻后一旦跌破 MA10 则重新暴露 3,080 中段。
- 方向取决于本周美元能否延续周线弱势、9 月加息概率（约 56%）与周末霍尔木兹升级推动油价高位之间的拉锯。
二 · 铝价及相关市场
确认/最新 （截至 7月17日周五；周末无新价；部分现货报价滞后至 7 月 16 日周四）
- SMM A00 铝锭： 约 23,100–23,150 元/吨，整体偏强/持平 ↔——去库使现货维持偏紧、报价坚挺，但期货逼近区间顶部限制进一步上行。
- 华东升贴水： 主流 平水至 +20 元/吨升水 ↔，主流成交约 +10 升水；出货意愿指数约 2.98、采购意愿指数约 3.04，成交平稳。
- LME 铝： 3,164.65 美元，−0.43% ↓——周五确认小幅回吐，周末休市无新价。
- ADC12（再生铝合金）： 约 24,000–24,050 元/吨，整体偏强/持平 ↔；废铝偏紧 + 对原铝价差处季节性历史高位提供成本支撑；海外 ADC12 报价约 3,050–3,190 美元/吨。
- 氧化铝： 弱势延续 ↓，四大市场加权均价截至 7 月 14 日 约 2,552 元/吨（周环比 −61）；全国冶金级现货更广口径约 2,700 元/吨一线走弱（6 月 SMM 氧化铝指数均值约 2,702）——独弱品种，成本端支撑持续下移，冶炼利润升至 1,100 元/吨以上。
- 原油： Brent 约 86 美元（守稳一个月高位平台，周涨超 10%） ↑——美伊/霍尔木兹周末进一步升级、海峡通行降至三周低位；对金属为成本利多、但同时留通胀尾部。
- 美元指数： 约 100.7，企稳但录得周线下跌 ↓——两份降温数据令加息押注保持低迷，对金属中性偏支撑。
解读
- 现货买盘因去库维持坚挺，A00 与升水偏强；盘面于 3,200 反复受阻限制现货进一步上行。
- 氧化铝仍为持续拖累、侵蚀成本端并推升冶炼利润至 1,100 元/吨上方。油价为双向摆动因素——经成本/供应风险利多金属，周末升级后维持高位使通胀尾部持续。
三 · 库存
确认/最新
- 国内铝锭库存（主流消费地）延续去库：SMM 最新一期（7 月 16 日周四口径）显示较上周四约 −2.6 万吨、较周一约 −1.1 万吨，绝对水平降至 约 103–104 万吨（7 月 13 日周一约 104.7 万吨），去库主要发生在广东、无锡；SMM 长期提示的 100 万吨关口在望。库存自 5 月初约 146.5–147 万吨高点累计去化约 40 万吨（近一周出库一度创近四年单周新高约 17 万吨）。（另一更广口径 SMM 社会库存高于主流消费地口径约 15–20 万吨；两者方向均坚定向下。）
- 再生铝合金锭社会库存 约 3.53 万吨，周环比 −0.9 万吨——连续第 6 周去库，受税票流通制约、现货-期货价差有利促成出货。
- LME 库存约 28.5 万吨——处 7 月初首破 30 万吨（2022 年以来最低）之下，年内 −43%，近端供应偏紧。机构预估 2026 年全球短缺约 93 万吨。
解读
- 加速去库（国内、再生、LME 同步去化）仍是当前最核心的多头支撑、为沪铝提供底部——不因周末与宏观停歇。
- 国内绝对库存已离高位、迈向 100 万吨，但高温淡季 + 铸锭增加下再累库为现实风险；库存托底与支撑，关键信号在于本周数据能否确认出库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨。
四 · 宏观因素
确认/最新
- 本周去通胀主线延续： 6 月 CPI（−0.4% 环比、同比 3.5%）与 6 月 PPI（−0.3% 环比、同比 5.5%、核心 −0.2%）连续两份降温数据，7 月 16 日 6 月零售销售亦未构成鹰派冲击，令加息押注保持低迷。
- 美联储： CME FedWatch（截至 7 月 17 日）——7 月加息概率约 12%、9 月加息概率约 56%（自本周稍早约 63%、CPI 前约 74% 回落），但 9 月仍近半、四季度定价进一步加息。主席 Warsh 维持反通胀基调、未给鸽派前瞻指引。
| 会议 | 按兵不动 | 加息 25bp |
|---|---|---|
| 7月29日 | ~88% | ~12% |
| 9月 | ~44% | ~56% |
- 美元指数 约 100.7、企稳但周线下跌——对金属中性偏支撑。
- 地缘/能源（周末主线）： 美伊/霍尔木兹进一步升级——美军连续第七夜（7 月 18 日周六）空袭，击中伊朗霍尔木兹甘省一处电力/海水淡化厂、并损毁通往阿巴斯港主干道的隧道与桥梁；伊朗袭击科威特海水淡化厂、迫使科威特国际机场暂停起降。Brent 守稳约 86 美元（周涨超 10%）、海峡通行降至三周低位——供应风险溢价 + 通胀尾部并存。
- 股市/风险情绪： 上周 DeepSeek 自研推理芯片报道 + Moonshot Kimi K3 开源大模型引发的”开源冲击”仍是本周潜在扰动；周末为休市，需观察周一亚太开盘的外溢。黄金约 4,007 美元、比特币约 6.3 万美元。
- 中国： 6 月官方制造业 PMI 50.3（扩张）、新出口订单 50.1（>50）；地产仍拖累。
解读：对铝影响
- 偏多： 两份降温数据 + 美元周线走软（约 100.7）；7 月加息概率约 12%；加速去库；LME 库存 28.5 万吨；周末霍尔木兹升级令油价维持高位、对海外冶炼的能源/供应风险溢价再度升温；中国 PMI 扩张。
- 偏空： 伦铝于 3,200 反复受阻（周五 −0.43%）；9 月加息概率仍约 56%（近半）；油价维持高位为通胀尾部；氧化铝走弱；淡季需求；DeepSeek 引发的股市避险或外溢至工业金属风险偏好；周一前无新盘面价确认。
- 综合： 均衡偏强——宏观维持利多金属（两份降温数据 + 软美元叠加去库底部，周末地缘升级再添供应风险溢价），但价格行为示意整理而非突破：3,200 反复令伦铝折返、9 月加息仍近半、油价高位为双向扰动。
五 · 基本面
确认：海外区域升水维持高位（供应趋紧预期）
| 地区 | 升水 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| 日本 MJP（Q3 长单） | ~395 美元/吨 | 十年高位（环比约 +12%；2014Q3 以来最高） |
| 欧洲 P1020A（完税） | ~547.5 美元/吨 | 年内约 +62% |
| 美中西部 DDP | ~110.5 美分/磅（~2,435 美元/吨） | 年内约 +18% |
- 海外供应： 海外复产/新产能为中期利空（印尼/中东为主），但近期由霍尔木兹升级与欧亚天然气高成本主导——周末美军对霍尔木兹甘电力/海水淡化设施的打击加剧海湾地区能源与物流风险，对海外冶炼构成能源供应风险、对冲产能逆风。LME 库存 <30 万吨强化偏紧格局。
- 国内供应： 运行产能 约 4,531 万吨/年（逼近 4,500 万吨政策天花板；建成约 4,610–4,630 万吨）；产量近满产、液铝比例上升。市场预期由过剩转向下半年短缺（全球约 93 万吨）→ 结构性支撑。
- 氧化铝： 运行产能约 9,620 万吨/年、开工约 78.2%；产量增长约 8%（快于金属）→ 过剩压力、价格走弱（四市场约 2,552、全国口径约 2,700）→ 冶炼成本下移、利润升至 1,100 元/吨以上、成本支撑走弱。
- 下游需求： 高温淡季；龙头加工开工率 约 61.9%（周环比 −0.7 个百分点）；光伏/电网/汽车/出口受 AI 资本开支与出口回暖支撑，建筑/地产偏弱，包装平稳。
- 现货情绪： 华东最强（平水至 +20 升水、成交平稳、采购意愿指数约 3.04）；华中最弱（持续 −120 至 −140 贴水）；华南偏淡、观望，受税票流通制约。
解读
- 海外升水高位 + 霍尔木兹/能源供应风险（周末再升级）+ 加速去库 + 产能天花板与下半年短缺预期 = 真实底部与偏建设性的微观格局；氧化铝走弱、淡季需求与海外新增产能为中期压制。
- 价格仍拉锯：”去库底部/下半年短缺/海外升水/软美元 vs 淡季 + 氧化铝走弱 + 油价-通胀尾部 + 反复受阻的 3,200 + 股市避险”。
六 · 原铝现货市场
确认/最新 （部分滞后至 7月16日周四；周末现货休市）
- 华东： 出货意愿平稳，报价坚挺下下游接货平稳；成交约 平水至 +20 元/吨升水，去库支撑。出货意愿指数约 2.98、采购意愿指数约 3.04。
- 华中（河南）： 高库存 + 订单弱，下游接货谨慎；持续贴水（约 −120 至 −140 元/吨）；供方挺价。采购意愿指数约 2.15。
- 华南： 终端需求仍弱；整体偏淡、观望，税票流通为制约；去库主要发生在广东。
解读
- 华东因去库最坚挺；华中偏软、华南偏淡；升贴水随盘面与到货节奏波动。
- 若去库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨、美元延续周线弱势，贴水有望企稳、升水走强；淡季需求与反复受阻的 3,200 限制近端上行。
七 · 关键价格驱动
利多
- 两份降温数据（6 月 CPI −0.4%、PPI −0.3%）+ 美元周线走软（约 100.7）： 7 月加息概率约 12%；风险偏好整体温和。
- 加速去库（主流消费地约 103–104 万吨、100 万吨在望；再生连续 6 周去库 −0.9 万吨；LME 库存约 28.5 万吨、年内 −43%）——为沪铝提供底部。
- 结构性转向下半年短缺（全球约 93 万吨）；运行产能触及 4,500 万吨政策天花板。
- 海外区域升水维持高位（日本 MJP 十年高位、欧洲、美中西部）；周末霍尔木兹升级加剧海外冶炼能源/供应风险溢价。
- 油价守稳约 86 美元（周涨超 10%）抬升海外冶炼成本；中国 6 月 PMI 扩张。
利空
- 伦铝于 3,200 反复受阻（周五 −0.43% 至 3,164.65）——多次上攻未果；跌破 MA10（~3,150）则重新暴露 3,080 中段。
- 9 月加息概率仍约 56%（近半）、四季度定价更多加息；Warsh 美联储仍偏紧、未给鸽派指引。
- 高位油价为通胀尾部；氧化铝随新增供应走弱（四市场约 2,552）→ 成本支撑走弱。
- 淡季需求走弱、龙头加工开工率约 61.9%；地产/建筑偏弱；DeepSeek 引发的股市避险或外溢；中长期均线（沪铝 MA30/60、LME MA20/30/60）仍偏空。
八 · 一句话观点
铝价维持宏观顺风与去库底部、周末地缘升级再添供应风险溢价，但顶部反复受阻——伦铝周五收 3,164.65 美元（−0.43%）仍稳守 3,085 上方并逼近 3,200，美元企稳约 100.7 但录得周线下跌、7 月加息概率约 12%；去库底部（主流消费地约 103–104 万吨、100 万吨在望；LME 库存 28.5 万吨）维持基础完好，故盘面料呈高位整理而非突破，9 月加息概率仍近半（约 56%）、周末霍尔木兹升级推动的油价高位与潜在的股市避险为周一沪铝重启及 3,200 / 沪铝 23,300 能否获更干净测试的双向裁决者。
九 · 本周盘（含夜盘）关注清单
- 周一沪铝 AL2608 重启（估 Fri 约 23,150–23,250）能否守住 23,000 / MA5（~23,150）并放量上攻 23,300 → MA30（~23,400）；下方支撑 MA10（~23,050），首度消化周末地缘升级。
- LME 3M（3,164.65 美元）：能否有效站上 3,200 打开 MA20（~3,220）以上，还是再度受阻回落至 3,140–3,150（MA5/MA10）；失守 MA10 则暴露 3,080 中段。
- 美元指数（~100.7）： 能否延续周线弱势（利多金属），还是油价走高/数据回暖将其拉回 101 上方。
- 美联储路径： FedWatch 9 月加息概率（约 56%）及任何 Warsh 表态；7 月加息恐慌维持约 12%。
- 库存与现货： 本周 SMM 去库数据能否跌破 100 万吨；LME 库存 28.5 万吨下方走向；华东/华中/华南升贴水；氧化铝指数（续跌则成本下移）。
- 油价与地缘（周末主线）： 美伊/霍尔木兹连续第七夜升级后是否再扩大（科威特机场、阿巴斯港干道、海峡通行三周低位），Brent 能否守住约 86 美元平台（成本利多 vs 通胀尾部）。
- 股市风险情绪： DeepSeek/开源冲击引发的科技股避险是否于周一亚太开盘外溢至工业金属；中国地产/基建信号。
数据来源： SMM（上海有色网）铝早会纪要、现货点评、周度铝锭/再生库存与氧化铝指数；LME；SHFE；TradingEconomics（LME 铝 3,164.65 −0.43%、美元指数、原油）；CME FedWatch；FXStreet（美元指数、美联储概率）；AlCircle/SMM（中国去库、再生库存、H1 回顾、冶炼利润）；麦格理/AlCircle（2026 短缺、海外升水）；Reuters/CNBC/NPR/Al Jazeera/KSAT（油价、美伊-霍尔木兹周末升级）；中国国家统计局（6 月 PMI）；Mysteel（运行产能）。数据口径：7 月 17 日周五伦铝收盘与沪铝日盘；成文于 7 月 19 日周日，沪铝/伦铝周末休市，周五后无新盘面价。沪铝周五收盘为估算（休市数据滞后），文中以确认/解读标注区分；部分华东/华中现货与升贴水报价滞后至 7 月 16 日周四；库存口径在 SMM 不同序列间存在差异（主流消费地约 103–104 万吨 vs 更广口径高约 15–20 万吨）——两者方向均向下；氧化铝四市场加权（约 2,552）与全国冶金级更广口径（约 2,700）存在差异；周末地缘事件为消息面，盘面影响待周一确认。确认数据与市场解读在文中分别标注。
免责声明： 本简报仅供内部参考，基于公开信息整理，不构成任何投资建议或买卖依据。数据可能存在延迟或误差，请以交易所及官方发布为准。使用者应独立判断并自行承担决策风险。
1 · Market Performance
Data LME 3-month aluminum, Friday July 17 (confirmed; weekend closure — latest available)
- Close $3,164.65/mt, −0.43% (~−$13.75) (TradingEconomics) — a slight Friday give-back, with no new print through Saturday/Sunday. Two cool inflation prints (CPI, PPI) and a softer weekly dollar supported the metal, but it again pressed toward the $3,200 cap without a clean break. Base metals broadly firm-to-consolidating.
- Down ~6.9% over the past month but still ~+20% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 held most of its ground, capped repeatedly at $3,200 — the level that has held the last several weeks.
- Structure: above MA5 (~$3,155) and MA10 (~$3,150), still below MA20 (~$3,220), MA30 (~$3,290) and MA60 (~$3,430) — a low-level repair that has yet to clear $3,200; holding $3,140–3,150 keeps the base intact, losing it exposes the mid-$3,080s low.
View SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Friday July 17 (market closed for weekend; estimated; reopens Monday)
- With today being Sunday and the SHFE closed for the weekend, the latest confirmed close remains Friday’s daytime session. View Given LME’s Thursday pop and slight Friday pullback plus a softer dollar, the SHFE most-traded contract likely closed Friday in the 23,150–23,250 band (SMM had AL2608 at 23,075 on July 14). Monday’s open will be the first to digest the weekend Hormuz escalation and sustained oil.
- Structure (est.): hovering around MA5 (~23,150) and holding above MA10 (~23,050), still capped by MA30 (~23,400) and MA60 (~24,000); near-term averages flattened into a base while medium/long-term MAs stay bearish-aligned. Range still ~23,000–23,300.
View Level assessment
- Both boards sit in a low-level repair zone with a supportive macro (soft dollar, destock) but a rejected top: SHFE floored by the destock, LME turned back repeatedly at $3,200.
- SHFE: support MA5 (~23,150) / MA10 (~23,050); resistance 23,300 then MA30 (~23,400). The pivot is whether Monday’s reopen holds 23,000 and brings volume to press 23,300.
- LME: support MA5 (~$3,155) / MA10 (~$3,150); resistance $3,200 then MA20-area (~$3,220). The pivot is whether it can clear $3,200 — a fresh failure with a break of MA10 re-exposes the mid-$3,080s.
- Direction hinges on this week’s tug-of-war between a softer weekly dollar, September-hike odds (~56%) and oil kept high by the weekend Hormuz escalation.
2 · Prices & Related Markets
Data/latest (as of Friday July 17; no new weekend prints; some China spot prints lag to Thursday July 16)
- SMM A00 ingot: ~23,100–23,150 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat d/d ↔ — the destock keeps spot tight and quotes firm, but futures near the range top cap further gains.
- East China premium/discount: mainstream parity to +20 CNY/mt premium ↔, mainstream trades ~+10; selling-sentiment index ~2.98, buying ~3.04; turnover steady.
- LME aluminum: $3,164.65, −0.43% ↓ — the confirmed Friday give-back; closed for the weekend, no new print.
- ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,000–24,050 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat ↔; tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; overseas ADC12 offers ~$3,050–3,190/mt.
- Alumina: softness persists ↓; four-market weighted average ~2,552 CNY/mt as of July 14 (−61 w/w); broader national smelter-grade caliber ~2,700 CNY/mt and easing (June SMM alumina index averaged ~2,702) — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor and lifting smelter profit above 1,100 CNY/mt.
- Crude: Brent held ~$86 (near a one-month high; +>10% on the week) ↑ (WTI above ~$80) — the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff escalated over the weekend and thinned Strait traffic to a three-week low; cost-bullish for metal but a live inflation tail.
- Dollar index: ~100.7, steadied but booked a weekly decline ↓ — two cool prints kept hike bets subdued; metals-neutral-to-supportive.
View
- The physical bid held firm on the destock (A00 and premiums firm); the board’s repeated rejection at $3,200 caps any further spot advance.
- Alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor and lifting smelter profit above 1,100 CNY/mt. Oil is the two-sided swing factor — bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, and the weekend escalation keeps it elevated, sustaining the inflation tail.
3 · Inventory
Data/latest
- China aluminum ingot inventory (major consumption areas) continues to destock: SMM’s latest print (Thursday July 16 caliber) shows ~−26 kt vs the prior Thursday and ~−11 kt vs Monday, pulling the absolute level to ~1.03–1.04 Mt (Monday July 13 ~1.047 Mt), with destocking mainly in Guangdong and Wuxi; SMM’s long-flagged 1.0 Mt level is in sight. Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May — a cumulative ~400 kt destock (recent weekly withdrawals briefly hit a near-four-year single-week high of ~170 kt). (A broader SMM social-inventory caliber runs ~150–200 kt above the major-area series; both trend firmly lower.)
- Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory ~35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking, amid tax-invoice circulation constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
- LME stocks ~285,000 mt — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), −43% YTD; tight near-term availability. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.
View
- Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE — it does not pause for the weekend or the macro.
- Absolute domestic inventory is off its highs and closing on 1 Mt, but the high-temperature off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins — the key tell is whether this week’s print confirms withdrawals holding pace below the 1 Mt mark.
4 · Macro Factors
Data/latest
- The disinflation theme carried the week: June CPI (−0.4% m/m, 3.5% YoY) and June PPI (−0.3% m/m, 5.5% YoY, core −0.2%) were two straight cool prints, and Thursday’s June retail sales did not deliver a hawkish shock — keeping hike bets subdued.
- Fed: CME FedWatch (into July 17) — July-hike odds ~12% and September-hike odds ~56% (eased from ~63% earlier in the week and ~74% pre-CPI), but September is still near a coin flip and Q4 keeps additional hikes priced. Chair Warsh held his anti-inflation line and offered no dovish forward guidance.
| Meeting | Hold | +25 bps |
|---|---|---|
| July 29 | ~88% | ~12% |
| September | ~44% | ~56% |
- Dollar index ~100.7, steadied but a weekly decline — metals-neutral-to-supportive.
- Geopolitics/energy (the weekend story): the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff escalated — US Central Command reported a seventh straight night of strikes (Saturday July 18), hitting an electricity/desalination plant in Iran’s Hormozgan province and damaging tunnels and a bridge on the main highway to Bandar Abbas near the Strait’s narrowest point; Iran struck a Kuwait desalination plant and forced Kuwait International Airport to suspend takeoffs and landings. Brent held ~$86 (+>10% on the week) with Strait crossings at a three-week low — a supply-risk premium plus an inflation tail.
- Equities/risk sentiment: last week’s DeepSeek own-inference-chip report plus Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weights “open-model shock” remains a live cross-current; markets were shut over the weekend, so watch for spillover at Monday’s Asia-Pacific open. Gold ~$4,007, bitcoin ~$63K.
- China: June official manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); new export orders 50.1 (>50); property still a drag.
View: impact on aluminum
- Bullish: two cool prints + a softer weekly dollar (~100.7); July-hike odds ~12%; accelerating destock; LME stocks 285 kt; the weekend Hormuz escalation keeps oil elevated and re-arms the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; China PMI in expansion.
- Bearish: LME rejected again at $3,200 (Friday −0.43%); September-hike odds still ~56% (near coin flip); sustained oil an inflation tail; softer alumina; off-season demand; a DeepSeek-led equity risk-off that could spill into industrial-metals sentiment; no fresh exchange prints until Monday’s reopen.
- Net: balanced/firm — the macro stayed metals-friendly (two cool prints + soft dollar on top of the destock floor, with the weekend geopolitics adding a fresh supply-risk premium), but the price action says consolidation, not breakout: $3,200 keeps turning the LME back, September is still near 50/50, and elevated oil is two-sided.
5 · Fundamentals
Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)
| Region | Premium | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Japan MJP (Q3 contract) | ~395 USD/mt | decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014) |
| Europe P1020A (duty-paid) | ~547.5 USD/mt | ~+62% YTD |
| US Midwest DDP | ~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt) | ~+18% YTD |
- Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Hormuz escalation and elevated European/Asian natural-gas costs — the weekend US strikes on Hormozgan power/desalination infrastructure sharpen Gulf energy and logistics risk, an energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters offsetting the capacity headwind. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
- Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. The market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
- Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (four-market ~2,552, national caliber ~2,700) → smelter costs lower, profit above 1,100 CNY/mt, cost support eroding.
- Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and export recovery, construction/property weak, packaging steady.
- Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +20 premium, steady turnover, buying index ~3.04); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −140 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation.
View
- Elevated ex-China premiums + a Hormuz/energy supply risk (re-escalated over the weekend) + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; softer alumina, off-season demand and ex-China new capacity remain the medium-term drags.
- Price stays a tug-of-war: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / softer dollar vs off-season + alumina weakness + oil-inflation tail + a repeatedly rejected $3,200 + an equity risk-off.”
6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market
Data/latest (some prints lag to Thursday July 16; spot closed over the weekend)
- East China: shipment willingness steady, downstream buying steady on the firm bid; trades parity to +20 CNY/mt premium, destock-supported. Selling index ~2.98, buying ~3.04.
- Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −140 CNY/mt); suppliers firm on price. Buying index ~2.15.
- South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see, tax-invoice circulation a constraint; destock concentrated in Guangdong.
View
- East China held firmest on the destock; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace.
- If destock holds pace below 1 Mt and the dollar extends its weekly softness, discounts should stabilize and premiums firm; off-season demand and the repeatedly rejected $3,200 cap the near-term upside.
7 · Key Price Drivers
Bullish
- Two cool inflation prints (June CPI −0.4%, PPI −0.3%) + a softer weekly dollar (~100.7): July-hike odds ~12%; a broadly mild risk tone.
- Accelerating destock (major-area ~1.03–1.04 Mt, 1 Mt in sight; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME stocks ~285 kt, −43% YTD) — a floor under SHFE.
- Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
- Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest); the weekend Hormuz escalation sharpens the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium.
- Oil held ~$86 (+>10% on the week) lifting ex-China smelter costs; China June PMI in expansion.
Bearish
- LME rejected again at $3,200 (Friday −0.43% to $3,164.65) — repeated failures at the range top; a break of MA10 (~$3,150) re-exposes the mid-$3,080s.
- September-hike odds still ~56% (near coin flip) with further hikes priced into Q4; a still-restrictive Warsh Fed with no dovish guidance.
- Elevated oil an inflation tail; alumina easing on fresh supply (four-market ~2,552) → cost support eroding.
- Off-season demand lull, processor rate ~61.9%; soft property/construction; a DeepSeek-led equity risk-off that may spill over; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA30/60; LME MA20/30/60) still bearish.
8 · One-Sentence Market View
Aluminum kept the macro wind at its back and the destock floor intact — with the weekend Hormuz escalation adding a fresh supply-risk premium — but a rejected top: LME closed Friday at $3,164.65 (−0.43%), still well above $3,085 and pressing toward $3,200, with the dollar steady at ~100.7 (a weekly decline) and July-hike odds at ~12%; the destock floor (major-area ~1.03–1.04 Mt, 1 Mt in sight; LME stocks 285 kt) keeps the base intact, so the tape reads as high-level consolidation rather than breakout, with a still-near-coin-flip September hike (~56%), the weekend-driven elevated oil, and a potential equity risk-off the two-sided arbiters of whether Monday’s SHFE reopen and $3,200 / SHFE 23,300 get a cleaner test.
9 · Watchlist for This Week’s Session (incl. Night)
- Monday’s SHFE AL2608 reopen (est. Fri ~23,150–23,250): whether it holds 23,000 / MA5 (~23,150) and brings volume to press 23,300 → MA30 (~23,400); downside support MA10 (~23,050) — the first session to digest the weekend escalation.
- LME 3M ($3,164.65): can it clear $3,200 to open MA20 (~$3,220) and above, or does it reject again toward $3,140–3,150 (MA5/MA10)? Losing MA10 exposes the mid-$3,080s.
- Dollar index (~100.7): does it extend its weekly softness (bullish metals) or does higher oil / firmer data pull it back above 101?
- Fed path: FedWatch September-hike odds (~56%) and any Warsh headlines; the July-hike scare stays at ~12%.
- Inventory & spot: whether this week’s SMM destock print breaks below 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 285 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
- Oil & geopolitics (the weekend story): after a seventh straight night of strikes, whether the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff widens further (Kuwait airport, the Bandar Abbas highway, Strait crossings at a three-week low) and whether Brent holds its ~$86 shelf (cost-bullish vs inflation tail).
- Equity risk sentiment: whether the DeepSeek/open-model shock’s tech-stock risk-off spills into industrial-metals sentiment at Monday’s Asia open; China property/infrastructure signals.
Sources: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) aluminum morning meeting minutes, spot reviews, weekly ingot/secondary inventory & alumina index; LME; SHFE; TradingEconomics (LME aluminum $3,164.65 −0.43%, DXY, crude); CME FedWatch; FXStreet (dollar index, Fed odds); AlCircle/SMM (China destock, secondary inventory, H1 review, smelter profit); Macquarie/AlCircle (2026 deficit, ex-China premiums); Reuters/CNBC/NPR/Al Jazeera/KSAT (oil, US–Iran/Hormuz weekend escalation); China NBS (June PMI); Mysteel (operating capacity). Data window: Friday July 17 LME close & SHFE daytime session; written Sunday July 19 with SHFE/LME closed for the weekend — no new exchange prints since Friday. The SHFE Friday close is estimated (weekend closure lags confirmed data) and labeled as View vs Data in the text; some East/Central China spot and premium prints lag to Thursday July 16; inventory calibers differ across SMM series (major-consumption-areas ~1.03–1.04 Mt vs a broader caliber ~150–200 kt higher) — both trend lower; alumina four-market weighted (~2,552) differs from the broader national smelter-grade caliber (~2,700); weekend geopolitical events are news flow with market impact to be confirmed at Monday’s reopen. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately in the text.
Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice or any basis for trading decisions. Data may be delayed or contain errors; please defer to official exchange releases. Users should exercise independent judgment and bear their own decision risk.