Monday's reopen turns soft as LME slips toward $3,140 on risk-off and a firm dollar. The destock floor still holds.周一开盘走软,风险偏好下降与美元坚挺令 LME 滑向 3,140 美元;去库底部仍在。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, latest (Friday confirmed close + Monday intraday, unconfirmed)

• Friday July 17 confirmed close $3,164.65/mt, −0.43% (~−$13.75) (TradingEconomics) — the last confirmed settlement. Monday July 20 intraday read ~$3,138.5 (range $3,125.5–$3,165, metal.com/Worthwill live feed, unconfirmed settlement), off ~0.8% from Friday — a soft reopen giving back part of the week’s ground. The weekend’s hoped-for “cleaner upside test” turned lower, not higher, at Monday’s reopen.
• Down ~6.9% over the past month but still ~+20% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 held most of its ground, but Monday’s dip pressed it back toward $3,140.
• Structure (est.): if Monday holds near $3,138, it slips below MA5 (~$3,155) and MA10 (~$3,150), still below MA20 (~$3,220), MA30 (~$3,290) and MA60 (~$3,430) — a low-level repair rejected, with $3,200 still the hard cap; holding $3,140 and the mid-$3,080s keeps the base intact, losing it exposes the ~$3,080 four-month low.

View SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Monday July 20 reopen (estimated; no confirmed close)

• View Given LME’s Monday intraday pullback, an equity risk-off and a firm-ish dollar, the SHFE most-traded contract likely tracked softer in Monday’s day/night session, landing in the 22,950–23,100 band (SMM had AL2608 at 23,075 on July 14; Friday est. ~23,150–23,250). The reopen is the first to digest the weekend Hormuz escalation, the Q2 GDP miss and the LPR hold.
• Structure (est.): slipping below MA5 (~23,150) and testing MA10 (~23,050), still capped by MA30 (~23,400) and MA60 (~24,000); near-term averages flattened, and a break of MA10 pressures the 23,000 range floor. Range still ~23,000–23,300.

View Level assessment

• Both boards sit in a low-level repair zone with a destock floor, but Monday’s top rejection turned into a pullback: SHFE floored by the destock, LME turned back at $3,200 and dipping toward $3,140.
• SHFE: support MA10 (~23,050) / 23,000; resistance MA5 (~23,150) then 23,300. The pivot is whether it holds 23,000 and reclaims MA5.
• LME: support $3,140 then the early-July low $3,085; resistance MA5/MA10 (~$3,150–3,155) then $3,200. The pivot is whether it reclaims MA10 — a break of $3,140 exposes the mid-$3,080s.
• Direction hinges on whether the equity risk-off stabilizes, the dollar’s path (~100.8), elevated oil’s inflation tail, and hike pricing into the July 29 FOMC.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data/latest (LME Friday confirmed + Monday intraday; some China spot prints lag to July 16–17)

• SMM A00 ingot: ~23,050–23,150 CNY/mt, broadly firm/flat d/d ↔ — the destock keeps spot tight and quotes firm, but the board’s pullback and the off-season cap chasing (South China reviews flag “strong supply, weak demand,” sluggish turnover).
• East China premium/discount: mainstream parity to +20 CNY/mt premium ↔ (some trades slipping to −10 to 0); selling/buying-sentiment indices near ~3.0/~2.8; turnover steady-to-subdued.
• LME aluminum: Friday $3,164.65 (−0.43%) confirmed; Monday intraday ~$3,138.5 ↓ — a soft reopen.
• ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,100 CNY/mt, flat ↔ (near-term band ~23,700–24,300); tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; imported ADC12 offers ~$3,100–3,200/mt.
• Alumina: softness persists ↓; SMM alumina index ~2,730 CNY/mt (~−12.8 w/w); four-market weighted ~2,552 CNY/mt; regions broadly easing (Shandong 2,710–2,780, Henan 2,730–2,800, Guangxi 2,600–2,680 leading −40) — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated.
• Crude: Brent held ~$85–87 (near a one-month high; +>14% on the week) ↑ (WTI ~$80) — the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff extended to a seventh-plus night of strikes, Kuwait’s power/desalination plant was hit, and Strait traffic stayed limited; cost-bullish for metal but a live inflation tail.
• Dollar index: ~100.8, steadied ↔ — two cool prints kept hike bets subdued, but elevated oil caps further softening; metals-neutral.

View

• The physical bid held firm on the destock (A00 and premiums firm), but Monday’s board pullback and the off-season capped chasing and kept turnover subdued.
• Alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated. Oil is the two-sided swing factor — bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, and its elevated level sustains the inflation tail and caps the dollar’s downside.

3 · Inventory

Data/latest

• China aluminum ingot inventory (major consumption areas) continues to destock: SMM calibers put the absolute level at ~1.03–1.08 Mt (~1.078 Mt on July 9, ~−52 kt w/w; a nearer caliber ~1.03–1.04 Mt on Thursday July 16), with destocking mainly in Guangdong and Wuxi; SMM’s long-flagged 1.0 Mt level is in sight. Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May — a cumulative ~400 kt destock (recent weekly withdrawals briefly hit a near-four-year single-week high of ~170 kt). (Calibers differ across SMM series; both trend firmly lower.)
• Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory ~35.3 kt, −9 kt w/w — a 6th straight week of destocking; secondary-industry operating rate ~51.4% (−0.4 ppt), amid tax-invoice constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
• LME stocks ~284,600 mt (July 15, −1,600 t / −0.57% d/d) — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), −43% YTD; cancelled warrants ~36.8 kt. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.

View

• Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under SHFE — it does not change with Monday’s board pullback.
• Absolute domestic inventory is off its highs and closing on 1 Mt, but the high-temperature off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins — the key tell is whether this week’s print confirms withdrawals holding pace below the 1 Mt mark.

4 · Macro Factors

Data/latest

• The disinflation theme carried the week but is offset by oil: June CPI (−0.4% m/m, 3.5% YoY) and June PPI (−0.3% m/m) were two straight cool prints that kept hike bets subdued, but the Iran conflict’s oil spike is a live inflation tail and a re-pricing risk.
• Fed: CME FedWatch (into mid/late July) — July-hike odds ~12% (~88% hold) and September-hike odds ~44–56% (near a coin flip; snapshots differ, having eased from the more hawkish reads earlier in the week). The July 29 FOMC is this week’s key event. (Note: some live snapshots briefly showed materially more hawkish hike odds on the oil-inflation spike; the text uses the reading consistent with recent multi-source data and flags the divergence.)

• Dollar index ~100.8, steadied — metals-neutral; elevated oil caps further softening.
• Geopolitics/energy (the story): the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff kept escalating — a seventh-plus night of US strikes, Kuwait’s power/desalination plant hit, Strait commercial traffic limited, and a US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent held ~$85–87 (+>14% on the week) — a supply-risk premium plus an inflation tail.
• Equities/risk sentiment: a “second DeepSeek moment” (DeepSeek’s own-inference-chip report) pushed the semiconductor index down ~10% on the week and the S&P ~−1.6%; the tech-stock risk-off has spillover potential into industrial-metals sentiment. Gold ~$4,018, bitcoin ~$64K.
• China: LPR left unchanged (1Y 3.00% / 5Y 3.50%, a 14th straight month); Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY (below the ~4.5% consensus, slowest since Q4-2022; H1 +4.7%); June exports +27% (a beat), manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); property investment ~−18%, still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

• Bullish: two cool prints + a steady dollar (~100.8); July-hike odds ~12%; accelerating destock; LME stocks 284.6 kt; the Hormuz escalation keeps oil elevated and sustains the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; China June exports hot, PMI in expansion, LPR held.
• Bearish: LME dipped toward $3,140 at Monday’s reopen ($3,200 repeatedly rejected); September-hike odds still near a coin flip; sustained oil an inflation tail and re-pricing risk; softer alumina; off-season demand; a weak Q2 GDP with property a drag; a DeepSeek-led equity risk-off that could spill over.
• Net: balanced, softer at the reopen — the macro stayed metals-friendly (cool prints + steady dollar on the destock floor, with Hormuz keeping a supply-risk premium), but the price action says a soft reopen and drift lower, not breakout: $3,200 keeps turning the LME back and Monday pressed toward $3,140, September is still near 50/50, elevated oil is two-sided, and the equity risk-off is a downside risk — with the July 29 FOMC now the focal point.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

• Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Hormuz escalation and elevated European/Asian natural-gas costs — the US strikes on Hormozgan power/desalination infrastructure sharpen Gulf energy and logistics risk, an energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters offsetting the capacity headwind. Guinea (~40% of global bauxite, ~70% of seaborne exports) is pushing local processing and export curbs — a medium-term bauxite-supply risk. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
• Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. The market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
• Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (SMM index ~2,730, four-market ~2,552) → smelter costs lower, profit elevated, cost support eroding.
• Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9% (−0.7 ppt w/w); PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and an export recovery (June exports +27%), construction/property weak, packaging steady.
• Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +20 premium, steady-to-subdued turnover); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −140 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see (“strong supply, weak demand,” sluggish), constrained by tax-invoice circulation.

View

• Elevated ex-China premiums + a Hormuz/energy supply risk + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; softer alumina, off-season demand, the weak Q2 GDP and ex-China new capacity remain the medium-term drags.
• Price stays a tug-of-war: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / hot exports vs off-season + alumina weakness + oil-inflation tail + a repeatedly rejected $3,200 + an equity risk-off + a weak Q2 GDP.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data/latest (some prints lag to July 16–17)

• East China: shipment willingness steady, downstream buying steady-to-subdued on the firm bid; trades parity to +20 CNY/mt premium (some slipping to −10 to 0), destock-supported.
• Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −140 CNY/mt); suppliers firm on price.
• South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see (“strong supply, weak demand,” sluggish), tax-invoice circulation a constraint; destock concentrated in Guangdong.

View

• East China held firmest on the destock; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace, and Monday’s pullback capped chasing.
• If destock holds pace below 1 Mt and the equity risk-off stabilizes, discounts should stabilize; off-season demand and the repeatedly rejected $3,200 cap the near-term upside.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• Two cool inflation prints (June CPI −0.4%, PPI −0.3%) + a steady dollar (~100.8): July-hike odds ~12%.
• Accelerating destock (major-area ~1.03–1.08 Mt, 1 Mt in sight; secondary −9 kt for a 6th week; LME stocks ~284.6 kt, −43% YTD) — a floor under SHFE.
• Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
• Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest); the Hormuz escalation sharpens the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; Guinea bauxite-supply risk.
• Oil held ~$85–87 (+>14% on the week) lifting ex-China smelter costs; China June exports +27%, PMI in expansion, LPR held.

Bearish

• LME dipped toward $3,140 at Monday’s reopen ($3,200 repeatedly rejected) — a soft reopen; a break of $3,140 re-exposes the ~$3,080 four-month low.
• September-hike odds still near a coin flip with further hikes priced into Q4; elevated oil an inflation tail and re-pricing risk.
• Alumina easing on fresh supply (SMM index ~2,730, four-market ~2,552) → cost support eroding.
• Off-season demand lull, processor rate ~61.9%; a weak Q2 GDP (+4.3%) with property investment ~−18%; a DeepSeek-led equity risk-off that may spill over; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA30/60; LME MA20/30/60) still bearish.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for This Week’s Session (incl. Night)

1. SHFE AL2608 (est. Monday ~22,950–23,100): whether it holds 23,000 / MA10 (~23,050) and reclaims MA5 (~23,150), or loses the range floor; upside resistance 23,300 → MA30 (~23,400).
2. LME 3M (Friday $3,164.65; Monday intraday ~$3,138.5): can it hold $3,140 and reclaim MA5/MA10 (~$3,150–3,155), or does a break expose the mid-$3,080s? $3,200 stays the hard cap.
3. Dollar index (~100.8): does it stay steady-to-soft (bullish metals) or does higher oil / risk-off pull it back above 101?
4. Fed path & the July 29 FOMC: FedWatch July-hike odds (~12%) and September (near a coin flip); whether the oil-inflation spike drives a more hawkish re-pricing.
5. Inventory & spot: whether this week’s SMM destock print breaks below 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 284.6 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
6. Oil & geopolitics (the story): after a seventh-plus night of strikes, whether the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff widens (Kuwait facilities, Strait traffic, Iranian-port blockade) and whether Brent holds its ~$85–87 shelf (cost-bullish vs inflation tail).
7. Equity risk sentiment & China: whether the DeepSeek/chip risk-off spills into industrial-metals sentiment; follow-through on property/infrastructure/exports after the weak Q2 GDP.