Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

LME confirms a soft close at $3,138 as the dollar firms to 101. Oil-driven inflation fears revive September hike bets.LME 确认收软于 3,138 美元,美元升至 101;油价推升通胀担忧,9 月加息预期升温。

Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Monday July 20 LME close ($3,137.80, −0.85%) as the last confirmed settlement, plus an unconfirmed Tuesday July 21 intraday LME read (~$3,130–3,150); SHFE Monday close estimated/soft and Tuesday intraday with no confirmed Tuesday settlement at writing; several China spot/premium prints lag to the July 17–18 session and the aluminum-ingot inventory caliber to the July 16–20 series (SMM Monday social caliber ~1.242 Mt); CME FedWatch snapshot as of July 20–21; DXY (~101) and Brent (~$89) as of July 21; the ongoing US–Iran/Hormuz strikes (tenth night) and the SMM-cited easing-negotiations report carried as interpretation
Steven Yuan
SHFE AL2608 ~22,900–23,100 (Tue, est/soft)
LME 3M $3,137.80 (−0.85%, Mon conf.); ~$3,130–3,150 (Tue intra, unconf.)
SMM A00 ~23,000–23,100 (firm/flat)
ADC12 ~24,100 (flat)
Alumina idx ~2,725 SMM / ~2,548 4-mkt (soft)
Brent ~$89 (5-wk high; wk ~+14%)
DXY ~101 (firmed, +2 sessions)

一 · 行情表现

确认 LME 3个月铝，最新（周一确认收盘 + 周二盘中未确认）

  • 周一 7月20日确认收 3,137.80 美元/吨，−0.85%（约 −26.85）（TradingEconomics）——为最新确认收盘，坐实了周末简报所预期的”偏软重启”（周一盘中约 3,138.5 → 收 3,137.80），较周五 3,164.65 回落约 0.85%。周二 7月21日盘中约 3,130–3,150 美元（未确认收盘），受美元走强、SMM 援引的美伊谈判缓和消息边际施压，但去库限制跌幅。
  • 过去一个月跌约 6.7%，但同比仍高 约 +18.6%；自 7 月初四个月低点约 3,085 美元的反弹守住大部,但周一确认收盘已回落逼近 3,140 下方一线。
  • 结构（估）：周一收 3,137.80，位于 MA5（~3,150） 与 MA10（~3,150） 下方，仍受 MA20（~3,215）、MA30（~3,285）、MA60（~3,420） 压制——低位修复受阻、3,200 仍是硬顶；守住 3,120 与 3,085 中段则底部完好,失守则暴露 3,080 附近的四个月低点。

解读 沪铝主力 AL2608，周二 7月21日（估算；无确认收盘）

  • 解读 结合伦铝周一确认收软、美元走强至约 101 与 9 月加息重新定价偏鹰,沪铝主力周一日盘/夜盘料跟随走软、周二低位整理,落于 22,900–23,100 区间（SMM 7 月 14 日 AL2608 收 23,075；周一估约 22,950–23,050）——延续消化霍尔木兹局势、Q2 GDP 走弱与更鹰派的 9 月定价。
  • 结构（估）：位于 MA5（~23,100） 与 MA10（~23,000） 下方,仍受 MA30（~23,400）、MA60（~24,000） 压制;近端均线走平、若失守 MA10/22,900 则区间下沿承压。区间仍约 22,900–23,200。

解读 价位判断

  • 两市仍处低位整理区,去库托底但宏观边际转软(美元走强、9 月加息偏鹰):沪铝以去库为底,伦铝周一确认收 3,137.80、回落至 3,140 下方。
  • 沪铝： 支撑 MA10（~23,000）/ 22,900；阻力 MA5（~23,100）后接 23,300。分水岭在能否守住 22,900 并重新站上 MA5。
  • LME： 支撑 3,120 后接早 7 月低点 3,085;阻力 MA5/MA10（~3,150）后接 3,200。分水岭在能否收回 MA10 上方——否则跌破 3,120 暴露 3,080 中段。
  • 方向取决于美元(约 101)能否延续走强、油价-通胀推动的 9 月加息定价、美伊谈判是否证实缓和,以及 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 前的持仓。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认/最新 （LME 周一确认 + 周二盘中；部分现货报价滞后至 7 月 17–18 日）

  • SMM A00 铝锭： 约 23,000–23,100 元/吨,整体持平/偏强 ↔——去库使现货维持偏紧、报价坚挺,但盘面回落与淡季令下游追高意愿有限,成交清淡。
  • 华东升贴水： 主流 平水至 +20 元/吨升水 ↔（部分成交回落至 −10 至 0），出货意愿/采购意愿指数约 3.0/2.8 一线,成交平稳偏淡。
  • LME 铝： 周一 3,137.80 美元（−0.85%）确认；周二盘中约 3,130–3,150 ↓——软重启获坐实。
  • ADC12（再生铝合金）： 约 24,100 元/吨,持平 ↔（近端区间约 23,700–24,300）；废铝偏紧 + 对原铝价差处季节性历史高位提供成本支撑；进口 ADC12 报价约 3,100–3,200 美元/吨。
  • 氧化铝： 弱势延续 ↓,SMM 氧化铝指数约 2,725 元/吨;四大市场加权约 2,548 元/吨;区域普遍走弱(山东、河南、广西领跌)——独弱品种,成本端支撑持续下移、冶炼利润维持高位。
  • 原油： Brent 约 89 美元(守稳五周高位,较此前冲高约 90 后略回) ↑(WTI 约 85 美元)——美伊/霍尔木兹连续第十夜空袭、海峡通行受限;但 SMM 援引美伊谈判出现缓和迹象,为双向信号;对金属既是成本利多,又留通胀尾部。
  • 美元指数： 约 101,连续两日走强 ↑——油价-通胀推动加息再定价、避险共同支撑;对金属边际偏空。

解读

  • 现货买盘因去库维持坚挺,A00 与升水偏强;但周一盘面确认回落与淡季令追高受限、成交偏淡。
  • 氧化铝仍为持续拖累、侵蚀成本端并维持冶炼高利润。油价为双向摆动因素——经成本/供应风险利多金属,但高位延续则通胀尾部持续、并支撑美元与鹰派加息定价;美伊谈判若证实缓和则削弱海外供应风险溢价、进一步压制伦铝。

三 · 库存

确认/最新

  • 国内铝锭库存延续去库:SMM 周一(社会库存口径)约 124.2 万吨,较上周四 −1.3 万吨;主流消费地更近口径约 102–103 万吨(方向坚定向下),去库主要发生在广东、无锡;SMM 长期提示的 100 万吨关口在望。库存自 5 月初约 146.5–147 万吨高点(主流消费地口径)累计去化明显(近周出库一度创近四年单周新高)。(SMM 不同序列口径存在差异,方向均向下。)
  • 再生铝合金锭社会库存 约 35.3 千吨——延续第 6 周以上去库趋势;再生行业开工率约 51.4%,受税票流通制约、现货-期货价差有利促成出货。
  • LME 库存约 28.4 万吨——处 7 月初首破 30 万吨(2022 年以来最低)之下,年内 −43%;注销仓单维持高位。机构预估 2026 年全球短缺约 93 万吨。

解读

  • 加速去库(国内、再生、LME 同步去化)仍是当前最核心的多头支撑、为盘面提供底部——不因周一确认收软而改变;SMM 明言”沪铝跟随伦铝承压、但国内去库限制跌幅”。
  • 国内绝对库存已离高位、迈向 100 万吨,但高温淡季 + 铸锭增加下再累库为现实风险;库存托底与支撑,关键信号在于本周数据能否确认出库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨。

四 · 宏观因素

确认/最新

  • 去通胀主线被油价对冲、加息定价边际偏鹰： 6 月 CPI(−0.4% 环比、同比 3.5%)与 6 月 PPI(−0.3% 环比)此前令加息押注低迷,但美伊冲突推升油价(Brent 约 89、五周高位)构成通胀尾部,推动 9 月加息重新定价偏鹰。
  • 美联储: CME FedWatch(截至 7 月 20–21 日)——7 月 28–29 日按兵不动概率约 87%、加息约 13%;9 月按兵不动约 30%、加 25bp 约 51%、加 50bp 约 20%(9 月加息合计约 70%,较一周前近半明显转鹰)。7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 为本周焦点。
会议 按兵不动 加息 25bp 加息 50bp
7月28–29日 ~87% ~13% —
9月 ~30% ~51% ~20%
  • 美元指数 约 101、连续两日走强 ↑——油价-通胀推动加息再定价与避险共同支撑;对金属边际偏空。
  • 地缘/能源(双向): 美伊/霍尔木兹空袭延续至第十夜、海峡商船通行受限,Brent 守稳约 89 美元(此前冲高约 90 后略回,周涨约 14%)——供应风险溢价 + 通胀尾部并存;新增扰动:SMM 援引美伊谈判出现缓和迹象、边际压制伦铝——地缘信号真正双向。
  • 股市/风险情绪: 芯片板块本周尝试自”熊市周”修复、期指企稳、油价自约 90 冲高回落;本周为财报重头(Alphabet、Tesla、Intel 等)。黄金约 4,001 美元、比特币约 6.4 万美元。
  • 中国: LPR 维持不变(1 年期 3.00%、5 年期 3.50%,连续第 14 个月);二季度 GDP 同比 +4.3%(弱于预期、2022 年四季度以来最慢,上半年 +4.7%);6 月出口同比 +27%(超预期)、制造业 PMI 50.3(扩张);地产投资同比约 −18%,仍拖累。

解读:对铝影响

  • 偏多: 加速去库;LME 库存约 28.4 万吨;霍尔木兹升级令油价维持高位、对海外冶炼的能源/供应风险溢价延续;中国 6 月出口高增、PMI 扩张、LPR 维稳;7 月按兵不动概率约 87%。
  • 偏空: 周一伦铝确认收软(3,137.80、−0.85%);美元走强至约 101;9 月加息定价升至约 70%(偏鹰再定价);SMM 援引美伊谈判缓和或削弱供应风险溢价;油价高位为通胀尾部;氧化铝走弱;淡季需求;Q2 GDP 走弱、地产拖累。
  • 综合: 均衡偏软、宏观边际转空—— 去库底部与(现转双向的)霍尔木兹供应风险溢价托住基础,但周一确认收软、美元走强至约 101、9 月加息升至约 70% 令近端宏观边际不利金属;美伊谈判缓和为海外风险溢价的新下行扰动(尽管空袭仍延续至第十夜),焦点转向 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC。

五 · 基本面

确认:海外区域升水维持高位(供应趋紧预期)

地区 升水 备注
日本 MJP(Q3 长单) ~395 美元/吨 十年高位(环比约 +12%;2014Q3 以来最高)
欧洲 P1020A(完税) ~547.5 美元/吨 年内约 +62%
美中西部 DDP ~110.5 美分/磅(~2,435 美元/吨) 年内约 +18%
  • 海外供应: 海外复产/新产能为中期利空(印尼/中东为主),但近期由霍尔木兹局势与欧亚天然气高成本主导——海湾能源与物流风险对海外冶炼构成能源供应风险、对冲产能逆风;若美伊谈判证实缓和则该溢价回吐。几内亚(全球约 40% 铝土矿、约 70% 海运出口)推进本地加工与出口管控,为中期铝土矿供应风险。LME 库存 <30 万吨强化偏紧格局。
  • 国内供应: 运行产能 约 4,531 万吨/年(逼近 4,500 万吨政策天花板;建成约 4,610–4,630 万吨);产量近满产、液铝比例上升。市场预期由过剩转向下半年短缺(全球约 93 万吨)→ 结构性支撑。
  • 氧化铝: 运行产能约 9,620 万吨/年、开工约 78.2%;产量增长约 8%(快于金属)→ 过剩压力、价格走弱(SMM 指数约 2,725、四市场约 2,548)→ 冶炼成本下移、利润维持高位、成本支撑走弱。
  • 下游需求: 高温淡季;龙头加工开工率 约 61.9%;光伏/电网/汽车/出口受 AI 资本开支与出口回暖(6 月出口 +27%)支撑,建筑/地产偏弱,包装平稳。
  • 现货情绪: 华东最强(平水至 +20 升水、成交平稳偏淡);华中最弱(持续 −120 至 −140 贴水);华南偏淡、观望(“强供应弱需求”、成交清淡),受税票流通制约。

解读

  • 海外升水高位 + 霍尔木兹/能源供应风险(现转双向)+ 加速去库 + 产能天花板与下半年短缺预期 = 真实底部与偏建设性的微观格局;氧化铝走弱、淡季需求、Q2 GDP 走弱、海外新增产能与偏鹰的 9 月定价为中期压制。
  • 价格仍拉锯:”去库底部/下半年短缺/海外升水/出口高增 vs 淡季 + 氧化铝走弱 + 美元走强 + 9 月偏鹰再定价 + 反复受阻的 3,200 + 美伊谈判缓和的供应溢价回吐风险”。

六 · 原铝现货市场

确认/最新 (部分滞后至 7 月 17–18 日)

  • 华东: 出货意愿平稳,报价坚挺下下游接货平稳偏淡;成交约 平水至 +20 元/吨升水(部分回落至 −10 至 0),去库支撑。
  • 华中(河南): 高库存 + 订单弱,下游接货谨慎;持续贴水(约 −120 至 −140 元/吨);供方挺价。
  • 华南: 终端需求仍弱;整体偏淡、观望(“强供应弱需求”、成交清淡),税票流通为制约;去库主要发生在广东。

解读

  • 华东因去库最坚挺;华中偏软、华南偏淡;升贴水随盘面与到货节奏波动,周一盘面确认回落令追高受限。
  • 若去库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨、盘面企稳,贴水有望企稳;淡季需求、美元走强与反复受阻的 3,200 限制近端上行。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多

  • 加速去库(SMM 周一社会口径约 124.2 万吨、−1.3 万吨;主流消费地约 102–103 万吨、100 万吨在望;LME 库存约 28.4 万吨、年内 −43%)——为盘面提供底部,SMM 明言限制跌幅。
  • 结构性转向下半年短缺(全球约 93 万吨);运行产能触及 4,500 万吨政策天花板。
  • 海外区域升水维持高位(日本 MJP 十年高位、欧洲、美中西部);霍尔木兹空袭延续至第十夜维持海外能源/供应风险溢价;几内亚铝土矿供应风险。
  • 油价守稳约 89 美元抬升海外冶炼成本;中国 6 月出口 +27%、PMI 扩张、LPR 维稳。
  • 7 月 28–29 日按兵不动概率约 87%。

利空

  • 周一伦铝确认收软(3,137.80、−0.85%)——软重启坐实;跌破 3,120 则暴露 3,080 附近四个月低点。
  • 美元走强至约 101(连续两日);9 月加息定价升至约 70%(偏鹰再定价)、四季度定价更多加息;高位油价为通胀尾部与再定价风险。
  • SMM 援引美伊谈判缓和——若证实则海外供应风险溢价回吐、压制伦铝。
  • 氧化铝随新增供应走弱(SMM 指数约 2,725、四市场约 2,548)→ 成本支撑走弱。
  • 淡季需求走弱、龙头加工开工率约 61.9%;Q2 GDP 同比 +4.3% 走弱、地产投资约 −18%;中长期均线(沪铝 MA30/60、LME MA20/30/60)仍偏空。

八 · 一句话观点

铝价维持去库底部与(现转双向的)霍尔木兹供应风险溢价,但软重启已坐实、宏观边际转空——伦铝周一确认收 3,137.80 美元(−0.85%,仍稳守 3,085 上方),美元走强至约 101、9 月加息定价升至约 70%,SMM 援引美伊谈判出现缓和(尽管空袭延续第十夜);去库底部(SMM 周一约 124.2 万吨、主流消费地约 102–103 万吨、100 万吨在望;LME 库存约 28.4 万吨)维持基础完好,故盘面料呈低位整理、宏观边际承压,美元走强、偏鹰的 9 月定价、油价高位的通胀尾部与谈判缓和的溢价回吐为下行风险,7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 与去库能否跌破 100 万吨为双向裁决者。

九 · 本周盘(含夜盘)关注清单

  1. 沪铝 AL2608(估周二约 22,900–23,100)能否守住 22,900 / MA10(~23,000) 并收回 MA5(~23,100),还是失守区间下沿;上方阻力 23,300 → MA30(~23,400)。
  2. LME 3M(周一确认 3,137.80、周二盘中约 3,130–3,150):能否守住 3,120 并收回 MA5/MA10(~3,150),还是跌破暴露 3,080 中段;上方 3,200 仍为硬顶。
  3. 美元指数(~101): 能否延续两日走强(利多美元、压制金属),还是加息定价降温令其回落至 100.8 下方。
  4. 美联储路径与 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC: FedWatch 7 月按兵不动概率(约 87%)与 9 月加息(约 70%)的变动;油价通胀是否推动更鹰派再定价。
  5. 库存与现货: 本周 SMM 去库数据能否延续、主流消费地跌破 100 万吨;LME 库存 28.4 万吨下方走向;华东/华中/华南升贴水;氧化铝指数(续跌则成本下移)。
  6. 油价与地缘(双向主线): 美伊/霍尔木兹第十夜空袭是否再扩大,以及 SMM 援引的谈判缓和 是否证实(若证实则供应风险溢价回吐);Brent 能否守住约 89 美元平台(成本利多 vs 通胀尾部)。
  7. 股市风险情绪与中国: 本周财报(Alphabet/Tesla/Intel 等)与芯片板块修复能否延续;Q2 GDP 走弱后地产/基建/出口的后续信号。

数据来源: SMM(上海有色网)铝早会纪要、现货点评、周度铝锭/再生库存与氧化铝指数;LME;SHFE;TradingEconomics(LME 铝周一 3,137.80 −0.85%、美元指数、Brent 约 89);metal.com/Worthwill(伦铝盘中);CME FedWatch/KuCoin(美联储概率:7 月按兵不动约 87%、9 月加息约 70%);AlCircle/SMM(中国去库、再生库存、H1 回顾、冶炼利润);麦格理/AlCircle(2026 短缺、海外升水);Reuters/CNBC/Al Jazeera(油价、美伊-霍尔木兹空袭第十夜);中国国家统计局(Q2 GDP、6 月 PMI、出口);央行(LPR);Mysteel(运行产能)。数据口径:7 月 20 日周一伦铝确认收盘 3,137.80 为最新确认价;成文于 7 月 21 日周二,伦铝当日盘中约 3,130–3,150 为未确认读数、文中以确认/解读标注区分;沪铝周一收盘估算、周二为盘中;部分华东/华中现货与升贴水报价滞后至 7 月 17–18 日;库存口径在 SMM 不同序列间存在差异(周一社会口径约 124.2 万吨/−1.3 万吨,主流消费地约 102–103 万吨,方向向下);氧化铝 SMM 指数(约 2,725)与四市场加权(约 2,548)口径不同;FedWatch 概率因油价通胀在不同快照间波动;美伊谈判缓和为消息面、盘面影响待确认。确认数据与市场解读在文中分别标注。

免责声明: 本简报仅供内部参考,基于公开信息整理,不构成任何投资建议或买卖依据。数据可能存在延迟或误差,请以交易所及官方发布为准。使用者应独立判断并自行承担决策风险。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, latest (Monday confirmed close + Tuesday intraday, unconfirmed)

  • Monday July 20 confirmed close $3,137.80/mt, −0.85% (~−$26.85) (TradingEconomics) — the last confirmed settlement, which cements the “soft reopen” the weekend brief anticipated (Monday intraday ~$3,138.5 → close $3,137.80), off ~0.85% from Friday’s $3,164.65. Tuesday July 21 intraday ~$3,130–3,150 (unconfirmed settlement), pressured at the margin by a firmer dollar and an SMM-cited report of easing US–Iran negotiations, with the destock limiting the downside.
  • Down ~6.7% over the past month but still ~+18.6% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 held most of its ground, but Monday’s confirmed close pressed it back below the $3,140 line.
  • Structure (est.): the $3,137.80 close sits below MA5 (~$3,150) and MA10 (~$3,150), still below MA20 (~$3,215), MA30 (~$3,285) and MA60 (~$3,420) — a low-level repair rejected, with $3,200 still the hard cap; holding $3,120 and the mid-$3,080s keeps the base intact, losing it exposes the ~$3,080 four-month low.

View SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Tuesday July 21 (estimated; no confirmed close)

  • View Given LME’s confirmed soft Monday close, a firmer dollar (~101) and a hawkish September re-pricing, the SHFE most-traded contract likely tracked softer in Monday’s session and consolidated at lows on Tuesday, landing in the 22,900–23,100 band (SMM had AL2608 at 23,075 on July 14; Monday est. ~22,950–23,050) — still digesting the Hormuz situation, the Q2 GDP miss and a more hawkish September.
  • Structure (est.): below MA5 (~23,100) and MA10 (~23,000), still capped by MA30 (~23,400) and MA60 (~24,000); near-term averages flattened, and a break of MA10/22,900 pressures the range floor. Range still ~22,900–23,200.

View Level assessment

  • Both boards sit in a low-level consolidation zone with a destock floor, but the macro softened at the margin (firmer dollar, a hawkish September): SHFE floored by the destock, LME confirmed at $3,137.80 and dipping below $3,140.
  • SHFE: support MA10 (~23,000) / 22,900; resistance MA5 (~23,100) then 23,300. The pivot is whether it holds 22,900 and reclaims MA5.
  • LME: support $3,120 then the early-July low $3,085; resistance MA5/MA10 (~$3,150) then $3,200. The pivot is whether it reclaims MA10 — a break of $3,120 exposes the mid-$3,080s.
  • Direction hinges on whether the dollar (~101) extends its climb, the oil-inflation-driven September hike pricing, whether the US–Iran easing is confirmed, and positioning into the July 28–29 FOMC.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data/latest (LME Monday confirmed + Tuesday intraday; some China spot prints lag to July 17–18)

  • SMM A00 ingot: ~23,000–23,100 CNY/mt, broadly flat/firm d/d ↔ — the destock keeps spot tight and quotes firm, but the board’s pullback and the off-season cap chasing, with turnover sluggish.
  • East China premium/discount: mainstream parity to +20 CNY/mt premium ↔ (some trades slipping to −10 to 0); selling/buying-sentiment indices near ~3.0/~2.8; turnover steady-to-subdued.
  • LME aluminum: Monday $3,137.80 (−0.85%) confirmed; Tuesday intraday ~$3,130–3,150 ↓ — the soft reopen is cemented.
  • ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,100 CNY/mt, flat ↔ (near-term band ~23,700–24,300); tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; imported ADC12 offers ~$3,100–3,200/mt.
  • Alumina: softness persists ↓; SMM alumina index ~2,725 CNY/mt; four-market weighted ~2,548 CNY/mt; regions broadly easing (Shandong, Henan, Guangxi leading lower) — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated.
  • Crude: Brent held ~$89 (near five-week highs, easing slightly after a spike toward $90) ↑ (WTI ~$85) — the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff ran to a tenth night and Strait traffic stayed limited; but SMM cites an emerging easing in US–Iran negotiations, a two-sided signal; cost-bullish for metal yet a live inflation tail.
  • Dollar index: ~101, firmed for a second straight session ↑ — supported by the oil-inflation hike re-pricing and safe-haven demand; metals-bearish at the margin.

View

  • The physical bid held firm on the destock (A00 and premiums firm), but Monday’s confirmed board pullback and the off-season capped chasing and kept turnover subdued.
  • Alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated. Oil is the two-sided swing factor — bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, but its elevated level sustains the inflation tail and props the dollar and hawkish hike pricing; a confirmed US–Iran easing would deflate the ex-China supply-risk premium and pressure LME further.

3 · Inventory

Data/latest

  • China aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock: SMM’s Monday print (social caliber) ~1.242 Mt, −13 kt vs last Thursday; the nearer major-consumption-areas caliber is ~1.02–1.03 Mt (trending firmly lower), with destocking mainly in Guangdong and Wuxi; SMM’s long-flagged 1.0 Mt level is in sight. Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May (major-area caliber) — a sizeable cumulative destock (recent weekly withdrawals briefly hit a near-four-year single-week high). (Calibers differ across SMM series; both trend lower.)
  • Secondary aluminum alloy ingot social inventory ~35.3 kt — extending a 6th-plus week of destocking; secondary-industry operating rate ~51.4%, amid tax-invoice constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
  • LME stocks ~284,000 mt — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), −43% YTD; cancelled warrants elevated. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.

View

  • Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under the board — it does not change with Monday’s confirmed soft close; SMM explicitly frames it as “SHFE tracking LME under pressure, but the domestic destock limiting the decline.”
  • Absolute domestic inventory is off its highs and closing on 1 Mt, but the high-temperature off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; inventory cushions and underpins — the key tell is whether this week’s print confirms withdrawals holding pace below the 1 Mt mark.

4 · Macro Factors

Data/latest

  • The disinflation theme is offset by oil and hike pricing turned hawkish at the margin: June CPI (−0.4% m/m, 3.5% YoY) and June PPI (−0.3% m/m) had kept hike bets subdued, but the Iran conflict’s oil spike (Brent ~$89, five-week highs) is a live inflation tail and drove a hawkish September re-pricing.
  • Fed: CME FedWatch (as of July 20–21) — July 28–29 hold ~87% / hike ~13%; September hold ~30%, +25bp ~51%, +50bp ~20% (September hike now ~70% combined, a clear hawkish shift from a coin flip a week ago). The July 28–29 FOMC is this week’s key event.
Meeting Hold +25 bps +50 bps
July 28–29 ~87% ~13% —
September ~30% ~51% ~20%
  • Dollar index ~101, firmed for a second straight session ↑ — supported by the oil-inflation hike re-pricing and safe-haven demand; metals-bearish at the margin.
  • Geopolitics/energy (two-sided): the US–Iran/Hormuz standoff ran to a tenth night of strikes with Strait commercial traffic limited, and Brent held ~$89 (after a spike toward $90, +~14% on the week) — a supply-risk premium plus an inflation tail; the new cross-current is an SMM-cited report of easing US–Iran negotiations, which pressured LME at the margin — a genuinely two-sided signal.
  • Equities/risk sentiment: chips tried to claw back a bear-market week with futures firming and oil fading its spike toward $90; the biggest earnings week of the season (Alphabet, Tesla, Intel) is ahead. Gold ~$4,001, bitcoin ~$64K.
  • China: LPR left unchanged (1Y 3.00% / 5Y 3.50%, a 14th straight month); Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY (below consensus, slowest since Q4-2022; H1 +4.7%); June exports +27% (a beat), manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); property investment ~−18%, still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

  • Bullish: accelerating destock; LME stocks ~284 kt; the Hormuz strikes keep oil elevated and sustain the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; China June exports hot, PMI in expansion, LPR held; a July hold ~87%.
  • Bearish: LME’s confirmed soft Monday close ($3,137.80, −0.85%); a firmer dollar (~101); a hawkish September re-pricing (~70% hike odds); the SMM-cited US–Iran easing could deflate the supply-risk premium; elevated oil an inflation tail; softer alumina; off-season demand; a weak Q2 GDP with property a drag.
  • Net: balanced-to-softer with a bearish macro edge — the destock floor and a (now two-sided) Hormuz supply-risk premium hold the base, but the confirmed soft close, a firmer dollar at ~101 and a September hike re-priced to ~70% tilt the near-term macro against metals; the US–Iran easing is a fresh downside cross-current for the ex-China risk premium (even as strikes ran to a tenth night), with the July 28–29 FOMC now the focal point.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region Premium Note
Japan MJP (Q3 contract) ~395 USD/mt decade high (+~12% QoQ; highest since Q3-2014)
Europe P1020A (duty-paid) ~547.5 USD/mt ~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP ~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt) ~+18% YTD
  • Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Hormuz situation and elevated European/Asian natural-gas costs — Gulf energy and logistics risk is an energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters offsetting the capacity headwind; a confirmed US–Iran easing would give that premium back. Guinea (~40% of global bauxite, ~70% of seaborne exports) is pushing local processing and export curbs — a medium-term bauxite-supply risk. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
  • Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. The market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
  • Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78.2%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (SMM index ~2,725, four-market ~2,548) → smelter costs lower, profit elevated, cost support eroding.
  • Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.9%; PV/grid/auto/export supported by AI-capex and an export recovery (June exports +27%), construction/property weak, packaging steady.
  • Spot sentiment: East China firmest (parity to +20 premium, steady-to-subdued turnover); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −140 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see (“strong supply, weak demand,” sluggish), constrained by tax-invoice circulation.

View

  • Elevated ex-China premiums + a Hormuz/energy supply risk (now two-sided) + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; softer alumina, off-season demand, the weak Q2 GDP, ex-China new capacity and a hawkish September re-pricing remain the medium-term drags.
  • Price stays a tug-of-war: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / hot exports vs off-season + alumina weakness + a firmer dollar + a hawkish September + a repeatedly rejected $3,200 + the risk that a US–Iran easing gives back the supply premium.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data/latest (some prints lag to July 17–18)

  • East China: shipment willingness steady, downstream buying steady-to-subdued on the firm bid; trades parity to +20 CNY/mt premium (some slipping to −10 to 0), destock-supported.
  • Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −140 CNY/mt); suppliers firm on price.
  • South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see (“strong supply, weak demand,” sluggish), tax-invoice circulation a constraint; destock concentrated in Guangdong.

View

  • East China held firmest on the destock; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace, and Monday’s confirmed pullback capped chasing.
  • If destock holds pace below 1 Mt and the board stabilizes, discounts should stabilize; off-season demand, a firmer dollar and the repeatedly rejected $3,200 cap the near-term upside.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

  • Accelerating destock (SMM Monday social caliber ~1.242 Mt, −13 kt; major-area ~1.02–1.03 Mt, 1 Mt in sight; LME stocks ~284 kt, −43% YTD) — a floor under the board, with SMM explicitly framing it as limiting the decline.
  • Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
  • Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP a decade high, Europe, US Midwest); the Hormuz strikes to a tenth night sustain the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; Guinea bauxite-supply risk.
  • Oil held ~$89 lifting ex-China smelter costs; China June exports +27%, PMI in expansion, LPR held.
  • A July 28–29 hold ~87%.

Bearish

  • LME’s confirmed soft Monday close ($3,137.80, −0.85%) — the soft reopen cemented; a break of $3,120 re-exposes the ~$3,080 four-month low.
  • A firmer dollar (~101, second straight session); a hawkish September re-pricing (~70% hike odds) with more hikes priced into Q4; elevated oil an inflation tail and re-pricing risk.
  • An SMM-cited easing in US–Iran negotiations — if confirmed, the ex-China supply-risk premium deflates and pressures LME.
  • Alumina easing on fresh supply (SMM index ~2,725, four-market ~2,548) → cost support eroding.
  • Off-season demand lull, processor rate ~61.9%; a weak Q2 GDP (+4.3%) with property investment ~−18%; medium/long-term MAs (SHFE MA30/60; LME MA20/30/60) still bearish.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Aluminum kept the destock floor and a (now two-sided) Hormuz supply-risk premium, but the soft reopen is cemented and the macro softened at the margin — LME closed Monday at $3,137.80 (−0.85%, still above $3,085), the dollar firmed to ~101 and the September hike re-priced to ~70%, with SMM citing an emerging US–Iran easing (even as strikes ran to a tenth night); the destock floor (SMM Monday ~1.242 Mt, major-area ~1.02–1.03 Mt, 1 Mt in sight; LME stocks ~284 kt) keeps the base intact, so the tape reads as low-level consolidation under a marginally softer macro, with a firmer dollar, a hawkish September, elevated oil’s inflation tail and a possible supply-premium give-back the downside risks, and the July 28–29 FOMC plus whether the destock breaks below 1 Mt the two-sided arbiters.

9 · Watchlist for This Week’s Session (incl. Night)

  1. SHFE AL2608 (est. Tuesday ~22,900–23,100): whether it holds 22,900 / MA10 (~23,000) and reclaims MA5 (~23,100), or loses the range floor; upside resistance 23,300 → MA30 (~23,400).
  2. LME 3M (Monday confirmed $3,137.80; Tuesday intraday ~$3,130–3,150): can it hold $3,120 and reclaim MA5/MA10 (~$3,150), or does a break expose the mid-$3,080s? $3,200 stays the hard cap.
  3. Dollar index (~101): does it extend its two-session climb (dollar-bullish, metals-bearish) or does cooler hike pricing pull it back below 100.8?
  4. Fed path & the July 28–29 FOMC: FedWatch July-hold odds (~87%) and September-hike odds (~70%); whether the oil-inflation spike drives a still-more-hawkish re-pricing.
  5. Inventory & spot: whether this week’s SMM destock extends and the major-area caliber breaks below 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 284 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
  6. Oil & geopolitics (two-sided story): whether the US–Iran/Hormuz strikes (tenth night) widen and whether the SMM-cited easing in negotiations is confirmed (which would give back the supply-risk premium); whether Brent holds its ~$89 shelf (cost-bullish vs inflation tail).
  7. Equity risk sentiment & China: whether this week’s earnings (Alphabet/Tesla/Intel) and the chip-sector repair hold; follow-through on property/infrastructure/exports after the weak Q2 GDP.

Sources: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) aluminum morning meeting minutes, spot reviews, weekly ingot/secondary inventory & alumina index; LME; SHFE; TradingEconomics (LME aluminum Monday $3,137.80 −0.85%, DXY, Brent ~$89); metal.com/Worthwill (intraday LME); CME FedWatch/KuCoin (Fed odds: July hold ~87%, September hike ~70%); AlCircle/SMM (China destock, secondary inventory, H1 review, smelter profit); Macquarie/AlCircle (2026 deficit, ex-China premiums); Reuters/CNBC/Al Jazeera (oil, US–Iran/Hormuz strikes tenth night); China NBS (Q2 GDP, June PMI, exports); PBoC (LPR); Mysteel (operating capacity). Data window: Monday July 20 LME confirmed close $3,137.80 is the last confirmed settlement; written Tuesday July 21 — Tuesday’s LME ~$3,130–3,150 is an unconfirmed intraday read, labeled Data vs View in the text; the SHFE Monday level is estimated and Tuesday intraday; some East/Central China spot and premium prints lag to July 17–18; inventory calibers differ across SMM series (Monday social caliber ~1.242 Mt / −13 kt, major-consumption-areas ~1.02–1.03 Mt, trending lower); alumina SMM index (~2,725) differs from the four-market weighted (~2,548); FedWatch odds have been volatile across snapshots on the oil-inflation spike; the US–Iran easing is news flow with market impact to be confirmed. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately in the text.

Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice or any basis for trading decisions. Data may be delayed or contain errors; please defer to official exchange releases. Users should exercise independent judgment and bear their own decision risk.