Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Houthi tanker strikes push Brent above $100. LME rebounds to $3,192 and tests the $3,200 cap again.胡塞武装袭击油轮推动 Brent 突破 100 美元;LME 反弹至 3,192 美元,再测 3,200 美元上限。

Friday, July 24, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Thursday July 23 LME confirmed close (~$3,191.55, +0.03% d/d, ~+1.7% WoW) as the last confirmed settlement, plus an unconfirmed Friday July 24 intraday LME read; SHFE Thursday July 23 close/overnight estimated with Friday intraday and no confirmed Friday settlement at writing; several China spot/premium prints lag to the July 21–23 SMM caliber (A00 ~23,190 on July 21, firming with the rebound); aluminum-ingot inventory to the mid-late-July SMM series (major-consumption-area ~1.022 Mt); CME FedWatch snapshot as of July 22–24; DXY (~100.6) and Brent (~$100–101) as of July 23–24; the Red Sea Houthi tanker strikes and ongoing Hormuz near-halt carried as confirmed news with the aluminum price impact labeled interpretation
Steven Yuan
SHFE AL2608 ~23,300–23,500 (Thu/Fri, est/firm)
LME 3M $3,191.55 (+0.03% Thu conf.; ~+1.7% WoW); ~$3,180–3,200 (Fri intra, unconf.)
SMM A00 ~23,300–23,500 (firming)
ADC12 ~24,100 (flat)
Alumina idx ~2,720 SMM / ~2,548 4-mkt (soft)
Brent ~$100–101 (8-wk high; >+30% MTD)
DXY ~100.6 (eased from ~101)

一 · 行情表现

确认 LME 3个月铝，最新（周四确认收盘 + 周五盘中未确认）

  • 周四 7月23日确认收约 3,191.55 美元/吨，日涨约 0.03%（TradingEconomics）——为最新确认收盘。更重要的是周内节奏：伦铝自周一约 3,138 反弹约 1.7%，由新一轮中东供应风险溢价驱动（Brent 破 100、红海油轮遇袭），已收复 MA5/MA10、重新上攻 3,200 美元硬顶（周四盘中区间约 3,147.5–3,195）。周五 7月24日盘中约 3,180–3,200 美元（未确认收盘），美元回落提供边际支撑,但 3,200 上方仍待确认放量。
  • 过去一个月约 +2.3%、同比仍高约 +20%；自 7 月初四个月低点约 3,085 美元的反弹已扩大,现逼近区间上沿 3,200。
  • 结构（估）：周四收 3,191.55,已站上 MA5（~3,150） 与 MA10（~3,155）,逼近 MA20（~3,190）;仍受 MA30（~3,250）、MA60（~3,400） 压制——3,200 为关键分水岭:确认收上则打开 3,250 空间,受阻回落则重回 3,120–3,200 区间震荡。

解读 沪铝主力 AL2608，周四/周五（估算；无确认收盘）

  • 解读 伦铝反弹带动,沪铝主力周四日盘/夜盘料跟随走强、周五高位整理,估落于 23,300–23,500 区间（SMM 7 月 14 日 AL2608 收 23,075、7 月 21 日 AL2606 约 23,030;随伦铝周内反弹约 1.7% 上移）——消化油价破 100 的供应风险溢价与去库支撑,但受美联储加息预期与淡季需求牵制、涨幅弱于伦铝（”LME 强于 SHFE”格局）。
  • 结构（估）：料站上 MA5/MA10（~23,200）,上攻 23,500/23,600;若守稳 23,200 则维持偏强,失守则回补至 23,000。区间上移至约 23,100–23,600。

解读 价位判断

  • 两市重心自低位整理上移至区间上沿——伦铝以供应风险溢价 + 去库为主导反弹上攻 3,200,沪铝跟随但偏弱。
  • 沪铝： 支撑 MA10（~23,200）/ 23,100；阻力 23,500 后接 23,600。分水岭在能否守稳 23,200 并上攻 23,500。
  • LME： 支撑 MA10（~3,155）后接 3,120;阻力 3,200 硬顶 后接 MA30（~3,250）。分水岭在能否确认收上 3,200——否则受阻回落至 3,120–3,200 震荡。
  • 方向取决于 Brent 能否守稳 100 上方（供应溢价）、美元（约 100.6）走向、7月28–29 日 FOMC 前的加息定价,以及去库能否跌破 100 万吨。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认/最新 （LME 周四确认 + 周五盘中；部分现货报价滞后至 7 月 21–23 日）

  • SMM A00 铝锭： 约 23,300–23,500 元/吨,随盘面反弹走强 ↑——去库使现货维持偏紧,盘面反弹带动报价上行（7 月 21 日约 23,190、−30；周内随伦铝上移）;但淡季令下游追高谨慎、成交平稳偏淡。
  • 华东升贴水： 主流 贴水约 20 元/吨至平水（对 SHFE 08）↔——盘面反弹后备货情绪稍转弱、升水小幅回落,成交平稳。
  • LME 铝： 周四 3,191.55 美元（+0.03%）确认、周内约 +1.7%;周五盘中约 3,180–3,200 ↑——供应风险溢价驱动反弹上攻 3,200。
  • ADC12（再生铝合金）： 约 24,100 元/吨,持平 ↔（09 合约期价约 22,980）;废铝偏紧 + 对原铝价差处季节性历史高位提供成本支撑;进口 ADC12 报价约 3,050–3,190 美元/吨。
  • 氧化铝： 弱势延续 ↓,SMM 氧化铝指数约 2,720 元/吨;四大市场加权约 2,548 元/吨;区域普遍走弱——独弱品种,成本端支撑持续下移、冶炼利润维持高位。
  • 原油： Brent 约 100–101 美元(八周高位,周四涨约 7%、月内涨逾 30%) ↑（WTI 约 96–97 美元）——胡塞武装袭击红海两艘沙特油轮、叠加霍尔木兹近乎停运;对金属既是成本/供应利多,又构成通胀尾部。
  • 美元指数： 约 100.6,自约 101 回落 ↓——加息定价与油价避险交织,美元边际走软对金属略偏多。

解读

  • 供应风险溢价 + 去库共同推动现货与盘面走强,A00 随伦铝上移;但淡季与 3,200 硬顶令追高谨慎、成交偏淡。
  • 氧化铝仍为持续拖累、侵蚀成本端并维持冶炼高利润。油价破 100 为本轮核心变量——经成本/供应风险利多金属,但高位延续则通胀尾部持续、令美联储加息预期难消,压制风险偏好与金属估值。

三 · 库存

确认/最新

  • 国内铝锭库存延续去库:SMM 主流消费地口径约 102.2 万吨,较上周四 −0.2 万吨（近周一度较前值 −5.2 万吨,出库一度创近四年单周新高约 17 万吨）;100 万吨关口在望。库存自 5 月初约 146.5–147 万吨高点（主流消费地口径）累计去化约 44–45 万吨,方向坚定向下。(SMM 不同序列口径存在差异,方向均向下。)
  • 再生铝合金（铸造铝合金）锭社会库存 约 25.9 千吨,本周 −3.8 千吨——延续第 8 周去库、累计约 −3.7 万吨,但去库速度较前期放缓;再生行业受税票流通制约、现货-期货价差有利促成出货。
  • LME 库存约 28.4 万吨——处 7 月初首破 30 万吨（2022 年以来最低）之下,年内 −43%;注销仓单维持高位。机构预估 2026 年全球短缺约 93 万吨。

解读

  • 加速去库（国内、再生、LME 同步去化）仍是最核心的多头支撑、为盘面提供底部——本周与供应风险溢价共振,推动伦铝反弹上攻 3,200。
  • 国内绝对库存已迈向 100 万吨,但高温淡季 + 铸锭增加下再累库为现实风险;关键信号在于本周数据能否确认出库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨。

四 · 宏观因素

确认/最新

  • 去通胀主线被油价破 100 对冲、加息预期延续： 6 月 CPI（同比 3.5%、低于预期）与 6 月 PPI 走弱此前令加息押注降温,但红海/霍尔木兹冲突推升 Brent 破 100（月内涨逾 30%）构成显著通胀尾部,SMM 明言”美联储加息预期持续”压制铝价上行空间。
  • 美联储: CME FedWatch(截至 7 月 22–24 日)——7 月 28–29 日按兵不动为主(约 75–80%)、加息 25bp 约 20–25%,官员偏鹰表态与油价通胀令加息押注维持;9 月加息定价仍偏高。7 月 28–29 日 FOMC（7月29日决议）为本周焦点。
会议 按兵不动 加息 25bp
7月28–29日 ~75–80% ~20–25%
9月 偏高不确定 抬升
  • 美元指数 约 100.6、自约 101 回落 ↓——油价避险与加息定价交织,近端小幅走软,对金属略偏多。
  • 地缘/能源(核心利多): 胡塞武装袭击红海两艘沙特油轮、宣称对沙特港口实施封锁,叠加霍尔木兹近乎停运,Brent 破 100（八周高位、月内 >+30%）——本月油价累计涨逾 30%,供应风险溢价 + 通胀尾部并存;据 SMM,海峡区域承载全球约 9% 铝供应,对海外冶炼构成能源/供应风险。
  • 股市/风险情绪: 大型科技资本开支压顶（Alphabet、Tesla 财报后走弱），但亚洲芯片走强;油价破 100 加剧滞胀担忧。黄金约 4,100 美元、比特币约 6.6 万美元。
  • 中国: LPR 维持不变(1 年期 3.00%、5 年期 3.50%,连续第 14 个月);二季度 GDP 同比 +4.3%(2022 年以来最慢,上半年 +4.7%);6 月出口同比 +27%(超预期)、制造业 PMI 50.3(扩张);地产投资同比约 −18%,仍拖累。

解读:对铝影响

  • 偏多: 油价破 100 令海外能源/供应风险溢价显著升温;加速去库(主流消费地约 102.2 万吨、100 万吨在望);LME 库存约 28.4 万吨;美元回落至约 100.6;中国 6 月出口高增、PMI 扩张、LPR 维稳。
  • 偏空: 油价高位为通胀尾部、令美联储加息预期难消;9 月加息定价偏高;3,200 反复受阻;氧化铝走弱;淡季需求;Q2 GDP 走弱、地产拖累;海外复产/新产能中期供应压力。
  • 综合: 偏建设性但受限—— 红海/霍尔木兹供应风险溢价 + 去库共振推动伦铝反弹上攻 3,200,美元回落助力;但同一油价破 100 为通胀尾部、令加息预期延续,7月28–29 日 FOMC 为近端裁决者。方向取决于 3,200 能否确认突破,以及 FOMC 与油价通胀是否令宏观转向不利金属。

五 · 基本面

确认:海外区域升水维持高位(供应趋紧预期)

地区 升水 备注
日本 MJP(现货) ~380–395 美元/吨 十年高位区间
欧洲 P1020A(完税) ~547.5 美元/吨 年内约 +62%
美中西部 DDP ~110.5 美分/磅(~2,435 美元/吨) 年内约 +18%
  • 海外供应: 海外复产/新产能为中期利空(印尼/中东为主),但近期由红海/霍尔木兹局势与欧亚天然气高成本主导——海湾能源与物流风险对海外冶炼构成能源供应风险、对冲产能逆风。几内亚(全球约 40% 铝土矿、约 70% 海运出口)推进本地加工与出口管控,为中期铝土矿供应风险。LME 库存 <30 万吨强化偏紧格局。
  • 国内供应: 运行产能 约 4,531 万吨/年(逼近 4,500 万吨政策天花板;建成约 4,610–4,630 万吨);产量近满产、液铝比例上升。市场预期由过剩转向下半年短缺(全球约 93 万吨)→ 结构性支撑。
  • 氧化铝: 运行产能约 9,620 万吨/年、开工约 78% 一线;产量增长约 8%(快于金属)→ 过剩压力、价格走弱(SMM 指数约 2,720、四市场约 2,548)→ 冶炼成本下移、利润维持高位、成本支撑走弱。
  • 下游需求: 高温淡季;龙头加工开工率 约 61.3%（环比 −0.6 个百分点）;光伏/电网/汽车/出口受出口回暖(6 月出口 +27%)支撑,建筑/地产偏弱,包装平稳。
  • 现货情绪: 华东最强(贴水约 20 至平水、盘面反弹后备货稍转弱、成交平稳);华中最弱(持续贴水约 −120 至 −150);华南偏淡、观望,受税票流通制约。

解读

  • 海外升水高位 + 红海/霍尔木兹能源供应风险 + 加速去库 + 产能天花板与下半年短缺预期 = 真实底部与偏建设性的微观格局;氧化铝走弱、淡季需求、Q2 GDP 走弱、海外新增产能与延续的加息预期为中期压制。
  • 价格拉锯:”供应风险溢价/去库底部/下半年短缺/海外升水/出口高增 vs 淡季 + 氧化铝走弱 + 加息预期延续 + 反复受阻的 3,200”。

六 · 原铝现货市场

确认/最新 (部分滞后至 7 月 21–23 日)

  • 华东: 盘面反弹后备货情绪稍转弱,报价坚挺下下游接货平稳偏淡;成交约 贴水 20 至平水(对 SHFE 08),去库支撑。
  • 华中(河南): 高库存 + 订单弱,下游接货谨慎;持续贴水(约 −120 至 −150 元/吨);供方挺价。
  • 华南: 终端需求仍弱;整体偏淡、观望,税票流通为制约;去库延续。

解读

  • 华东因去库最坚挺,但盘面反弹令追高谨慎、升水小幅回落;华中偏软、华南偏淡;升贴水随盘面与到货节奏波动。
  • 若去库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨、盘面确认站上 3,200,现货有望进一步走强;淡季需求与反复受阻的 3,200 限制近端上行。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多

  • 油价破 100（红海胡塞袭击油轮 + 霍尔木兹近乎停运,月内 >+30%）——重燃海外能源/供应风险溢价,海峡区域承载全球约 9% 铝供应,驱动伦铝反弹上攻 3,200。
  • 加速去库(SMM 主流消费地约 102.2 万吨、−0.2 万吨、100 万吨在望;再生第 8 周去库;LME 库存约 28.4 万吨、年内 −43%)——为盘面提供底部。
  • 结构性转向下半年短缺(全球约 93 万吨);运行产能触及 4,500 万吨政策天花板。
  • 海外区域升水维持高位(日本 MJP、欧洲、美中西部);几内亚铝土矿供应风险。
  • 美元回落至约 100.6;中国 6 月出口 +27%、PMI 扩张、LPR 维稳。
  • LME 强于 SHFE 格局延续,伦铝周内 +1.7% 反弹。

利空

  • 3,200 硬顶反复受阻——未确认放量突破前,上行空间受限;失守 3,120 则重回区间震荡。
  • 油价高位为通胀尾部,令美联储加息预期延续(7 月按兵不动为主但加息在场、9 月定价偏高);7月28–29 日 FOMC 为近端风险。
  • 氧化铝随新增供应走弱(SMM 指数约 2,720、四市场约 2,548)→ 成本支撑走弱。
  • 淡季需求走弱、龙头加工开工率约 61.3%;Q2 GDP 同比 +4.3% 走弱、地产投资约 −18%;海外复产/新产能中期供应压力。

八 · 一句话观点

铝价自周一偏软重启转为供应风险驱动的反弹——红海胡塞袭击油轮、霍尔木兹近乎停运推动 Brent 破 100（月内涨逾 30%），重燃海外能源/供应风险溢价,与加速去库共振,推动伦铝反弹至周四确认收约 3,191.55 美元(周内 +1.7%)、再度上攻 3,200 硬顶,美元回落至约 100.6 助力;但同一油价破 100 为通胀尾部、令美联储加息预期延续,故基调偏建设性但受限——盘面料在 3,120–3,200 上沿运行、上行需 3,200 确认突破,7月28–29 日 FOMC(7月29日决议)、去库能否跌破 100 万吨、以及油价通胀是否令宏观转向不利金属为双向裁决者。

九 · 今晚夜盘关注清单

  1. 沪铝 AL2608(估约 23,300–23,500)能否守稳 23,200 / MA10 并上攻 23,500/23,600,还是回补至 23,000。
  2. LME 3M(周四确认 3,191.55、周五盘中约 3,180–3,200):能否确认收上 3,200 硬顶并打开 MA30(~3,250)空间,还是受阻回落至 3,120–3,200 震荡。
  3. 美元指数(~100.6): 能否延续自 101 的回落(利多金属),还是加息定价重燃令其反弹。
  4. 美联储路径与 7月28–29 日 FOMC: FedWatch 7 月按兵不动(约 75–80%)与加息(约 20–25%)的变动;油价破 100 是否推动更鹰派再定价。
  5. 油价与地缘(核心主线): 红海胡塞袭击是否扩大、霍尔木兹通行是否恢复;Brent 能否守稳 100 上方(供应溢价 vs 通胀尾部)。
  6. 库存与现货: 本周 SMM 去库数据能否延续、主流消费地跌破 100 万吨;LME 库存 28.4 万吨下方走向;华东/华中/华南升贴水;氧化铝指数(续跌则成本下移)。
  7. 股市风险情绪与中国: 大型科技资本开支与财报后的风险偏好;Q2 GDP 走弱后地产/基建/出口的后续信号。

数据来源: SMM(上海有色网)铝早会纪要、现货点评、周度铝锭/再生库存与氧化铝指数;LME;SHFE;TradingEconomics(LME 铝周四约 3,191.55、+0.03%、美元指数、Brent);metal.com/Worthwill(伦铝盘中);CME FedWatch(美联储概率:7 月按兵不动约 75–80%、加息约 20–25%);Washington Post/Forbes/CNBC/NBC(红海胡塞袭击沙特油轮、Brent 破 100);AlCircle/SMM(中国去库、再生库存、下游开工、冶炼利润);麦格理/AlCircle(2026 短缺、海外升水);中国国家统计局(Q2 GDP、6 月 PMI、出口);央行(LPR);Mysteel(运行产能)。数据口径:7 月 23 日周四伦铝确认收盘约 3,191.55 为最新确认价;成文于 7 月 24 日周五,伦铝当日盘中约 3,180–3,200 为未确认读数、文中以确认/解读标注区分;沪铝周四收盘/夜盘估算、周五为盘中;部分华东/华中现货与升贴水报价滞后至 7 月 21–23 日;库存口径在 SMM 不同序列间存在差异(主流消费地约 102.2 万吨/−0.2 万吨,方向向下);氧化铝 SMM 指数(约 2,720)与四市场加权(约 2,548)口径不同;FedWatch 概率因油价通胀在不同快照间波动;红海/霍尔木兹地缘为新闻确认,铝价影响为解读。确认数据与市场解读在文中分别标注。

免责声明: 本简报仅供内部参考,基于公开信息整理,不构成任何投资建议或买卖依据。数据可能存在延迟或误差,请以交易所及官方发布为准。使用者应独立判断并自行承担决策风险。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, latest (Thursday confirmed close + Friday intraday, unconfirmed)

  • Thursday July 23 confirmed close ~$3,191.55/mt, +0.03% d/d (TradingEconomics) — the last confirmed settlement. The bigger story is the weekly path: LME has rebounded ~1.7% off Monday’s ~$3,138, driven by a fresh Middle-East supply-risk premium (Brent above $100, Red Sea tanker strikes), reclaiming MA5/MA10 and pressing the $3,200 hard cap again (Thursday intraday range ~$3,147.5–3,195). Friday July 24 intraday ~$3,180–3,200 (unconfirmed settlement), with a softer dollar lending marginal support, but a confirmed break above $3,200 still awaits volume.
  • Up ~2.3% over the past month and ~+20% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 has widened and is now testing the top of the range at $3,200.
  • Structure (est.): the $3,191.55 close sits above MA5 (~$3,150) and MA10 (~$3,155), nearing MA20 (~$3,190); still capped by MA30 (~$3,250) and MA60 (~$3,400) — $3,200 is the key pivot: a confirmed close above opens $3,250, rejection returns it to a $3,120–$3,200 range.

View SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Thursday/Friday (estimated; no confirmed close)

  • View On LME’s rebound, the SHFE most-traded contract likely tracked firmer in Thursday’s session and overnight and consolidated high on Friday, estimated in the 23,300–23,500 band (SMM had AL2608 at 23,075 on July 14 and AL2606 ~23,030 on July 21; lifted with LME’s ~1.7% weekly rebound) — digesting the oil-above-$100 supply-risk premium and destock support, but restrained by persistent Fed-hike expectations and off-season demand, lagging LME (“LME outperforms SHFE”).
  • Structure (est.): likely back above MA5/MA10 (~23,200), testing 23,500/23,600; holding 23,200 keeps it firm, a break refills toward 23,000. Range lifted to ~23,100–23,600.

View Level assessment

  • Both boards lifted from low-level consolidation toward the top of the range — LME rebounding to test $3,200 on the supply-risk premium plus destock, SHFE tracking but lagging.
  • SHFE: support MA10 (~23,200) / 23,100; resistance 23,500 then 23,600. The pivot is whether it holds 23,200 and tests 23,500.
  • LME: support MA10 (~$3,155) then $3,120; resistance the $3,200 hard cap then MA30 (~$3,250). The pivot is whether it confirms a close above $3,200 — a rejection returns it to a $3,120–$3,200 range.
  • Direction hinges on whether Brent holds above $100 (supply premium), the dollar (~100.6), hike pricing into the July 28–29 FOMC, and whether the destock breaks below 1 Mt.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data/latest (LME Thursday confirmed + Friday intraday; some China spot prints lag to July 21–23)

  • SMM A00 ingot: ~23,300–23,500 CNY/mt, firming with the board’s rebound ↑ — the destock keeps spot tight and the board’s rebound lifts quotes (~23,190 / −30 on July 21, moving up with LME through the week); but the off-season keeps downstream cautious on chasing, with turnover steady-to-subdued.
  • East China premium/discount: mainstream ~−20 CNY/mt discount to parity (vs SHFE 08) ↔ — restocking sentiment eased slightly after the rebound and premiums slipped marginally; turnover steady.
  • LME aluminum: Thursday $3,191.55 (+0.03%) confirmed, ~+1.7% WoW; Friday intraday ~$3,180–3,200 ↑ — a supply-risk-driven rebound pressing $3,200.
  • ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,100 CNY/mt, flat ↔ (the Sep contract ~22,980); tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; imported ADC12 offers ~$3,050–3,190/mt.
  • Alumina: softness persists ↓; SMM alumina index ~2,720 CNY/mt; four-market weighted ~2,548 CNY/mt; regions broadly easing — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated.
  • Crude: Brent ~$100–101 (eight-week high, +~7% Thursday, >+30% month-to-date) ↑ (WTI ~$96–97) — Iran-backed Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, on top of the Hormuz near-halt; cost/supply-bullish for metal yet a live inflation tail.
  • Dollar index: ~100.6, eased back from ~101 ↓ — hike pricing and oil-driven safe-haven demand crosscut; a marginally softer dollar is mildly metals-supportive.

View

  • The supply-risk premium plus the destock lifted both spot and the board, with A00 firming alongside LME; but the off-season and the $3,200 hard cap kept chasing cautious and turnover subdued.
  • Alumina remains the persistent laggard eroding the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated. Oil above $100 is the pivotal new variable — bullish for metal via cost/supply-risk, but its elevated level sustains the inflation tail and keeps Fed-hike expectations alive, weighing on risk appetite and metal valuations.

3 · Inventory

Data/latest

  • China aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock: SMM’s major-consumption-area caliber ~1.022 Mt, −2 kt vs last Thursday (recent weekly withdrawals briefly hit a near-four-year single-week high of ~170 kt); the 1.0 Mt level is in sight. Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May (major-area caliber) — a cumulative destock of ~440–450 kt, trending firmly lower. (Calibers differ across SMM series; both trend lower.)
  • Secondary aluminum alloy (foundry alloy) ingot social inventory ~25.9 kt, −3.8 kt this week — an 8th straight week of destocking (cumulative ~−37 kt), though the pace has slowed; amid tax-invoice constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
  • LME stocks ~284,000 mt — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), −43% YTD; cancelled warrants elevated. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.

View

  • Accelerating destocking (domestic, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under the board — this week it resonated with the supply-risk premium to drive LME’s rebound to test $3,200.
  • Absolute domestic inventory is closing on 1 Mt, but the high-temperature off-season plus more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; the key tell is whether this week’s print confirms withdrawals holding pace below the 1 Mt mark.

4 · Macro Factors

Data/latest

  • The disinflation theme is offset by oil above $100, and hike expectations persist: June CPI (3.5% YoY, below consensus) and a soft June PPI had cooled hike bets, but the Red Sea/Hormuz conflict drove Brent above $100 (>+30% MTD), a material inflation tail — SMM explicitly cites “persistent US Fed rate-hike expectations” capping aluminum’s upside.
  • Fed: CME FedWatch (as of July 22–24) — July 28–29 hold the base case (~75–80%), +25bp ~20–25%, with hawkish official commentary and the oil-inflation spike keeping a hike in play; September-hike pricing stays elevated. The July 28–29 FOMC (decision July 29) is this week’s key event.
Meeting Hold +25 bps
July 28–29 ~75–80% ~20–25%
September elevated/uncertain rising
  • Dollar index ~100.6, eased back from ~101 ↓ — oil-driven safe-haven demand and hike pricing crosscut; a marginally softer dollar is mildly metals-supportive.
  • Geopolitics/energy (core bullish): Iran-backed Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, claiming a blockade of Saudi ports, on top of the Hormuz near-halt; Brent crossed $100 (eight-week high, >+30% MTD) — a supply-risk premium plus an inflation tail; per SMM, the Strait region carries ~9% of global aluminum supply, an energy/supply risk to ex-China smelters.
  • Equities/risk sentiment: Big-Tech capex weighed (Alphabet, Tesla softened post-earnings) even as Asia chips firmed; oil above $100 sharpens stagflation worries. Gold ~$4,100, bitcoin ~$66K.
  • China: LPR left unchanged (1Y 3.00% / 5Y 3.50%, a 14th straight month); Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY (slowest since 2022; H1 +4.7%); June exports +27% (a beat), manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); property investment ~−18%, still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

  • Bullish: oil above $100 sharply revives the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; accelerating destock (major-area ~1.022 Mt, 1 Mt in sight); LME stocks ~284 kt; a softer dollar (~100.6); China June exports hot, PMI in expansion, LPR held.
  • Bearish: elevated oil is an inflation tail keeping Fed-hike expectations alive; September-hike pricing elevated; $3,200 repeatedly rejected; softer alumina; off-season demand; a weak Q2 GDP with property a drag; ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term supply pressure.
  • Net: constructive-but-capped — the Red Sea/Hormuz supply-risk premium plus the destock resonated to drive LME’s rebound to test $3,200, aided by a softer dollar; but the same oil-above-$100 is an inflation tail keeping hike expectations alive, with the July 28–29 FOMC the near-term arbiter. Direction hinges on whether $3,200 is cleared on a confirmed close and whether the FOMC/oil-inflation tail turns the macro against metals.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region Premium Note
Japan MJP (spot) ~380–395 USD/mt decade-high range
Europe P1020A (duty-paid) ~547.5 USD/mt ~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP ~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt) ~+18% YTD
  • Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term is dominated by the Red Sea/Hormuz situation and elevated European/Asian gas costs — Gulf energy and logistics risk is an energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters offsetting the capacity headwind. Guinea (~40% of global bauxite, ~70% of seaborne exports) is pushing local processing and export curbs — a medium-term bauxite-supply risk. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
  • Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. The market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
  • Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (SMM index ~2,720, four-market ~2,548) → smelter costs lower, profit elevated, cost support eroding.
  • Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.3% (−0.6 ppt M-o-M); PV/grid/auto/export supported by an export recovery (June exports +27%), construction/property weak, packaging steady.
  • Spot sentiment: East China firmest (~−20 discount to parity, restocking eased after the rebound, steady turnover); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −150 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation.

View

  • Elevated ex-China premiums + a Red Sea/Hormuz energy-supply risk + accelerating destock + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor and a constructive micro backdrop; softer alumina, off-season demand, the weak Q2 GDP, ex-China new capacity and persistent hike expectations remain the medium-term drags.
  • Price stays a tug-of-war: “supply-risk premium / destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / hot exports vs off-season + alumina weakness + persistent hike expectations + a repeatedly rejected $3,200.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data/latest (some prints lag to July 21–23)

  • East China: restocking sentiment eased slightly after the rebound, downstream buying steady-to-subdued on the firm bid; trades ~−20 CNY/mt discount to parity (vs SHFE 08), destock-supported.
  • Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −150 CNY/mt); suppliers firm on price.
  • South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see, tax-invoice circulation a constraint; destock continuing.

View

  • East China held firmest on the destock, but the rebound made buyers cautious on chasing and premiums slipped marginally; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace.
  • If destock holds pace below 1 Mt and the board confirms above $3,200, spot should firm further; off-season demand and the repeatedly rejected $3,200 cap the near-term upside.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

  • Oil above $100 (Red Sea Houthi tanker strikes + Hormuz near-halt, >+30% MTD) — revives the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium; the Strait region carries ~9% of global aluminum supply, driving LME’s rebound to test $3,200.
  • Accelerating destock (SMM major-area ~1.022 Mt, −2 kt, 1 Mt in sight; secondary an 8th week of draws; LME stocks ~284 kt, −43% YTD) — a floor under the board.
  • Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
  • Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP, Europe, US Midwest); Guinea bauxite-supply risk.
  • A softer dollar (~100.6); China June exports +27%, PMI in expansion, LPR held.
  • The “LME outperforms SHFE” pattern persists, with LME +1.7% on the week.

Bearish

  • $3,200 hard cap repeatedly rejected — upside is limited until a confirmed break on volume; a loss of $3,120 returns it to range trade.
  • Elevated oil is an inflation tail keeping Fed-hike expectations alive (a July hold the base case but a hike in play, September pricing elevated); the July 28–29 FOMC a near-term risk.
  • Alumina easing on fresh supply (SMM index ~2,720, four-market ~2,548) → cost support eroding.
  • Off-season demand lull, processor rate ~61.3%; a weak Q2 GDP (+4.3%) with property investment ~−18%; ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term supply pressure.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Aluminum flipped from Monday’s soft reopen to a supply-risk-driven rebound — Red Sea Houthi tanker strikes and the Hormuz near-halt drove Brent above $100 (>+30% MTD), reviving the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium, which together with the accelerating destock lifted LME to a Thursday confirmed close of ~$3,191.55 (~+1.7% WoW), pressing the $3,200 hard cap again as the dollar eased to ~100.6; but the same oil-above-$100 is an inflation tail keeping Fed-hike expectations alive, so the read is constructive-but-capped — the tape likely trades the top of a $3,120–$3,200 range, upside needs a confirmed break of $3,200, and the July 28–29 FOMC (decision July 29), whether the destock breaks below 1 Mt, and whether the oil-inflation tail turns the macro against metals are the two-sided arbiters.

9 · Watchlist for Tonight’s Night Session

  1. SHFE AL2608 (est. ~23,300–23,500): whether it holds 23,200 / MA10 and tests 23,500/23,600, or refills toward 23,000.
  2. LME 3M (Thursday confirmed $3,191.55; Friday intraday ~$3,180–3,200): can it confirm a close above the $3,200 hard cap and open MA30 (~$3,250), or does rejection return it to a $3,120–$3,200 range?
  3. Dollar index (~100.6): does it extend its pullback from ~101 (metals-supportive), or does re-igniting hike pricing pull it back up?
  4. Fed path & the July 28–29 FOMC: FedWatch July-hold odds (~75–80%) and hike odds (~20–25%); whether oil above $100 drives a more hawkish re-pricing.
  5. Oil & geopolitics (core story): whether the Red Sea Houthi strikes widen and whether Hormuz traffic recovers; whether Brent holds above $100 (supply premium vs inflation tail).
  6. Inventory & spot: whether this week’s SMM destock extends and the major-area caliber breaks below 1 Mt; LME stock trend below 284 kt; East/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
  7. Equity risk sentiment & China: Big-Tech capex and post-earnings risk appetite; follow-through on property/infrastructure/exports after the weak Q2 GDP.

Sources: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) aluminum morning meeting minutes, spot reviews, weekly ingot/secondary inventory & alumina index; LME; SHFE; TradingEconomics (LME aluminum Thursday ~$3,191.55, +0.03%, DXY, Brent); metal.com/Worthwill (intraday LME); CME FedWatch (Fed odds: July hold ~75–80%, hike ~20–25%); Washington Post/Forbes/CNBC/NBC (Red Sea Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers, Brent above $100); AlCircle/SMM (China destock, secondary inventory, downstream operating rate, smelter profit); Macquarie/AlCircle (2026 deficit, ex-China premiums); China NBS (Q2 GDP, June PMI, exports); PBoC (LPR); Mysteel (operating capacity). Data window: Thursday July 23 LME confirmed close ~$3,191.55 is the last confirmed settlement; written Friday July 24 — Friday’s LME ~$3,180–3,200 is an unconfirmed intraday read, labeled Data vs View in the text; the SHFE Thursday close/overnight is estimated and Friday intraday; some East/Central China spot and premium prints lag to July 21–23; inventory calibers differ across SMM series (major-consumption-areas ~1.022 Mt / −2 kt, trending lower); alumina SMM index (~2,720) differs from the four-market weighted (~2,548); FedWatch odds have been volatile across snapshots on the oil-inflation spike; the Red Sea/Hormuz geopolitics is confirmed news with the aluminum price impact carried as interpretation. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately in the text.

Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice or any basis for trading decisions. Data may be delayed or contain errors; please defer to official exchange releases. Users should exercise independent judgment and bear their own decision risk.