Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: Brent falls back below $100 on peace-talk hopes as the dollar firms. The supply-risk premium is fading.周末版:和谈预期令 Brent 跌回 100 美元下方,美元走强;供应风险溢价消退。

Sunday, July 26, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Friday July 24 LME confirmed close (~$3,165.05, −0.83% d/d, ~+0.9% WoW off Monday's $3,137.80) as the last confirmed settlement; written Sunday July 26 with SHFE/LME night and weekend markets closed — no new exchange prints since Friday (reopens Monday July 27); the SHFE Friday July 24 daytime close/overnight is estimated; several China spot/premium prints lag to the July 22–24 SMM caliber; aluminum-ingot inventory to the mid-late-July SMM series (major-consumption-area ~1.022 Mt); CME FedWatch snapshot as of July 23; DXY (~101.3) as of July 24–25 and Brent (~$97–98, −~2–4% Friday) as of July 24 close; the Friday oil pullback on the China-initiated Pakistan push to revive US–Iran talks, the ongoing Red Sea Houthi threat and Hormuz near-halt carried as confirmed news with the aluminum price impact labeled interpretation
Steven Yuan
SHFE AL2608 ~23,100–23,300 (Fri, est; reopens Mon)
LME 3M $3,165.05 (−0.83% Fri conf.; ~+0.9% WoW); $3,200 rejected
SMM A00 ~23,050–23,250 (eased with Fri pullback)
ADC12 ~24,100 (flat)
Alumina idx ~2,720 SMM / ~2,548 4-mkt (soft)
Brent ~$97–98 (Fri −~2–4% on peace-talk hopes; back below $100)
DXY ~101.3 (firmed near 1-mo high)

一 · 行情表现

确认 LME 3个月铝，最新（周五确认收盘；周末休市）

  • 周五 7月24日确认收约 3,165.05 美元/吨，日跌约 0.83%（较周四确认 3,191.55 回落约 26.5 美元，TradingEconomics）——仍为最新确认收盘。日盘一度上攻 3,200 美元硬顶 未果、承压回落;但周线仍收涨——自周一 3,137.80 反弹约 +0.9%。今日为周日,伦铝/沪铝周末休市,下周一（7月27日）重启前无新盘面价（周末休市）。
  • 过去一个月约 +1.7%、同比仍高约 +18%；自 7 月初四个月低点约 3,085 美元的反弹已扩大,但周五于区间上沿 3,200 再度受阻回落。周末核心变量已生变:油价周五自 100 上方回落约 2–4%(见下),供应风险溢价降温,或削弱周一重启的支撑。
  • 结构（估）：周五收 3,165.05,仍站上 MA5（~3,155） 与 MA10（~3,160）,略低于 MA20（~3,185）;仍受 MA30（~3,250）、MA60（~3,400） 压制——3,200 为关键分水岭:确认收上则打开 3,250 空间,反复受阻则维持 3,120–3,200 区间震荡;若油价溢价持续消退,下沿或测 3,120。

解读 沪铝主力 AL2608，周五（休市，估算；下周一重启）

  • 解读 因今日为周日、沪铝周末休市,最新确认收盘仍为周五日盘。结合伦铝周五于 3,200 受阻回落、油价 Friday 回落、美元走强至约 101.3,沪铝主力周五日盘/夜盘料高位回落,估落于 23,100–23,300 区间（SMM 7 月 14 日 AL2608 收 23,075、7 月 21 日 AL2606 约 23,030;周内随伦铝反弹上移、周五回吐部分涨幅）——受 3,200 反复受阻、美联储加息预期与淡季需求牵制,涨幅弱于伦铝（”LME 强于 SHFE”格局）。周一开盘将首度消化周末油价回落与美伊谈判重启预期。
  • 结构（估）：料仍守 MA5/MA10（~23,100）,阻力 23,400/23,500;若守稳 23,100 则维持偏强,失守则回补至 23,000。区间约 23,000–23,400。

解读 价位判断

  • 两市重心自低位整理上移至区间上沿后,周五于顶部再度受阻,且驱动本轮反弹的油价供应溢价周末转弱——利多主线出现松动。
  • 沪铝： 支撑 MA10（~23,100）/ 23,000；阻力 23,400 后接 23,500。分水岭在能否守稳 23,100 并再攻 23,400。
  • LME： 支撑 MA10（~3,160）后接 3,120;阻力 3,200 硬顶 后接 MA30（~3,250）。分水岭在能否确认收上 3,200——否则维持 3,120–3,200 震荡,油价溢价续退则偏向下沿。
  • 方向取决于:美伊谈判重启是否将油价压回 100 下方（溢价消退）、美元（约 101.3）走向、7月28–29 日 FOMC（7月29日决议）前的加息定价,以及去库能否跌破 100 万吨。周末休市使周一重启成为首个价格确认窗口。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认/最新 （LME 周五确认;周末休市;部分现货报价滞后至 7 月 22–24 日）

  • SMM A00 铝锭： 约 23,050–23,250 元/吨,随盘面周五回落小幅走弱 ↓——去库使现货维持偏紧,但盘面于 3,200 受阻回落带动报价小幅走弱;淡季令下游追高谨慎、成交平稳偏淡。
  • 华东升贴水： 主流 贴水约 20 元/吨至平水(对 SHFE 08)↔——盘面回落后备货情绪略回暖、现货偏紧支撑升水,成交平稳;华东去库超预期、供方挺价(部分成交 SMM+10 至 +20)。
  • LME 铝： 周五 3,165.05 美元(−0.83%)确认、周内约 +0.9%;日盘于 3,200 受阻回落 ↓——供应风险溢价支撑但硬顶顶回,周末油价溢价转弱。
  • ADC12（再生铝合金）： 约 24,100 元/吨,持平 ↔(09 合约期价约 22,980);废铝偏紧 + 对原铝价差处季节性历史高位提供成本支撑;进口 ADC12 报价约 3,050–3,190 美元/吨。
  • 氧化铝： 弱势延续 ↓,SMM 氧化铝指数约 2,720 元/吨;四大市场加权约 2,548 元/吨;区域普遍走弱——独弱品种,成本端支撑持续下移、冶炼利润维持高位。
  • 原油： Brent 约 97–98 美元(周五大跌约 2–4%、6 月下旬以来最大单日跌幅,自周四 100 上方回落) ↓(WTI 约 92–93 美元)——回落缘于报道称巴基斯坦在中国推动下寻求重启美伊谈判(停止对海湾/沙特袭击成为前提),市场博弈降温预期;但红海胡塞威胁仍在、且据报特朗普权衡”大规模”打击,油价双向、地缘未定。
  • 美元指数： 约 101.3,走强近一个月高位(自 7月23日 101.5 顶部略回) ↑——能源回落仅部分软化加息押注,美元仍处 15 个月高位附近,对金属偏空。

解读

  • 去库仍支撑现货,A00 现货偏紧但周五随盘面回落小幅走弱;淡季与 3,200 硬顶令追高谨慎、成交偏淡。
  • 本轮核心变量——油价——周末生变: 周五自 100 上方回落约 2–4%,美伊谈判重启预期(中方推动、巴方斡旋)令供应风险溢价降温,同时美元走强至约 101.3——两者叠加对金属偏空。若周一重启时油价溢价延续消退且美元维持强势,伦铝或难再攻 3,200、偏向 3,120–3,200 区间下沿。氧化铝仍为持续拖累。

三 · 库存

确认/最新

  • 国内铝锭库存延续去库:SMM 主流消费地口径约 102.2 万吨,去库主要发生在广东、无锡且华东去库超预期;100 万吨关口在望。库存自 5 月初约 146.5–147 万吨高点（主流消费地口径）累计去化约 44–45 万吨,方向坚定向下(近周出库一度创近四年单周新高约 17 万吨)。(SMM 不同序列口径存在差异,方向均向下。)
  • 铝棒(billet)： 主流消费地社会库存 7 月 23 日约 12.1 万吨,较上周一 +1 万吨、较上周四 +6,500 吨,连续两周小幅累库(年内首现)——绝对值仍低于过去两年同期,但显示铝棒环节去库逻辑较 6 月已放缓/转向,为需求淡季信号,需警惕向铝锭传导。
  • 再生铝合金（铸造铝合金）锭社会库存 约 25.9 千吨——延续第 8 周去库、累计约 −3.7 万吨,但去库速度较前期放缓;再生行业受税票流通制约、现货-期货价差有利促成出货。
  • LME 库存约 28.4 万吨——处 7 月初首破 30 万吨(2022 年以来最低)之下,年内 −43%;注销仓单维持高位。机构预估 2026 年全球短缺约 93 万吨。

解读

  • 加速去库(国内铝锭、再生、LME 同步去化)仍是最核心的多头支撑、为盘面提供底部——但油价溢价周末转弱后,去库将更趋成为盘面主导支撑,而非与供应风险溢价共振。华东去库超预期、供方挺价,现货偏紧支撑升水。
  • 国内铝锭绝对库存已迈向 100 万吨,但铝棒连续两周小幅累库叠加高温淡季 + 铸锭增加,再累库为现实风险;关键信号在于下一期铝锭数据能否确认出库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨、以及铝棒累库是否扩大。

四 · 宏观因素

确认/最新

  • 去通胀主线与油价回落交织、加息预期仍在: 6 月 CPI(同比 3.5%、低于 3.8% 预期)与 6 月 PPI 走弱此前令加息押注降温,红海/霍尔木兹冲突一度推升 Brent 破 100 构成通胀尾部;但周五油价回落约 2–4%(美伊谈判重启预期)略软化加息押注——不过美元仍走强至约 101.3,显示加息路径未消。SMM 明言”美联储加息预期持续”压制铝价上行空间。
  • 美联储: CME FedWatch(截至 7 月 23 日)——7 月 28–29 日按兵不动为主(约 63.5%)、加息 25bp 约 35–36.5%,官员观点分歧,油价通胀令加息押注维持;当前利率 3.50–3.75%,本次会议无经济预测(SEP)。7 月 28–29 日 FOMC(7月29日 14:00 ET 决议、Warsh 14:30 发布会)为下周焦点、落于周一重启后两日。
会议 按兵不动 加息 25bp
7月28–29日 ~63.5% ~35–36.5%
9月 偏高不确定 抬升
  • 美元指数 约 101.3、走强近一个月高位 ↑——能源回落仅部分软化加息押注,美元仍处 15 个月高位附近,对金属偏空。
  • 地缘/能源(利多松动): 胡塞武装本周袭击红海沙特油轮(成品油轮 Encelia、Layla)、宣称对沙特港口封锁,霍尔木兹通行量一度骤降;但周五 Brent 自 100 上方回落约 2–4%,因报道称巴基斯坦在中国推动下寻求重启美伊谈判(停止对海湾/沙特袭击为前提)——供应风险溢价降温。据 SMM,海峡区域承载全球约 9% 铝供应;地缘仍双向未定(特朗普据报权衡”大规模”打击),但周末天平略向降温倾斜。
  • 股市/风险情绪: 大型科技资本开支压顶(Alphabet、Tesla 财报后走弱),亚洲芯片走强;油价回落略缓解滞胀担忧。周末休市,需观察周一亚太开盘外溢。黄金约 4,050 美元附近、比特币约 6.5–6.6 万美元。
  • 中国: LPR 维持不变(1 年期 3.00%、5 年期 3.50%,连续第 14 个月);二季度 GDP 同比 +4.3%(2022 年以来最慢,上半年 +4.7%);6 月出口同比 +27%(超预期)、制造业 PMI 50.3(扩张);地产投资同比约 −18%,仍拖累。

解读:对铝影响

  • 偏多: 加速去库(主流消费地约 102.2 万吨、100 万吨在望,华东超预期);LME 库存约 28.4 万吨、年内 −43%;下半年短缺预期(全球约 93 万吨);海外区域升水高位;中国 6 月出口高增、PMI 扩张、LPR 维稳。
  • 偏空: 油价周五回落约 2–4%、供应风险溢价消退(美伊谈判重启预期);美元走强至约 101.3;加息预期延续(7 月加息约 35–36.5%、9 月偏高)、7月28–29 日 FOMC 临近;3,200 周五再度受阻;氧化铝走弱;淡季需求 + 铝棒两周累库;Q2 GDP 走弱、地产拖累。
  • 综合: 偏建设性但受限、溢价消退—— 去库仍托住基础,但驱动周内反弹的油价供应溢价周五转弱、美元走强,LME 周五于 3,200 受阻回落(周内仍 +0.9%),7月28–29 日 FOMC 为下周近端裁决者。方向取决于:美伊谈判是否将油价压回 100 下方(溢价消退)、3,200 能否确认突破,以及美元与 FOMC 是否令宏观进一步转向不利金属。周末休市使周一重启成为首个定价窗口。

五 · 基本面

确认:海外区域升水维持高位(供应趋紧预期)

地区 升水 备注
日本 MJP(现货) ~380–395 美元/吨 十年高位区间
欧洲 P1020A(完税) ~547.5 美元/吨 年内约 +62%
美中西部 DDP ~110.5 美分/磅(~2,435 美元/吨) 年内约 +18%
  • 海外供应: 海外复产/新产能为中期利空(印尼/中东为主),但近期由红海/霍尔木兹局势与欧亚天然气高成本主导——海湾能源与物流风险对海外冶炼构成能源供应风险;若美伊谈判推进、地缘降温,该风险溢价将回落。几内亚(全球约 40% 铝土矿、约 70% 海运出口)推进本地加工与出口管控,为中期铝土矿供应风险。LME 库存 <30 万吨强化偏紧格局。
  • 国内供应: 运行产能 约 4,531 万吨/年(逼近 4,500 万吨政策天花板;建成约 4,610–4,630 万吨);产量近满产、液铝比例上升。市场预期由过剩转向下半年短缺(全球约 93 万吨)→ 结构性支撑。
  • 氧化铝: 运行产能约 9,620 万吨/年、开工约 78% 一线;产量增长约 8%(快于金属)→ 过剩压力、价格走弱(SMM 指数约 2,720、四市场约 2,548)→ 冶炼成本下移、利润维持高位、成本支撑走弱。
  • 下游需求: 高温淡季;龙头加工开工率 约 61.3%(环比 −0.6 个百分点);光伏/电网/汽车/出口受出口回暖(6 月出口 +27%)支撑,建筑/地产偏弱,包装平稳;铝棒连续两周小幅累库反映淡季加工需求边际转弱。
  • 现货情绪: 华东最强(贴水约 20 至平水、去库超预期、供方挺价、成交平稳,部分 SMM+10 至 +20);华中最弱(持续贴水约 −120 至 −150);华南偏淡、观望,受税票流通制约。

解读

  • 海外升水高位 + 加速去库(华东超预期) + 产能天花板与下半年短缺预期 = 真实底部;但红海/霍尔木兹能源供应风险若随美伊谈判降温则溢价回落,叠加氧化铝走弱、淡季需求(铝棒累库)、美元走强、海外新增产能与延续的加息预期,构成中期压制。
  • 价格拉锯:”去库底部/下半年短缺/海外升水/出口高增 vs 淡季 + 铝棒累库 + 氧化铝走弱 + 美元走强 + 加息预期延续 + 油价溢价消退 + 周五再度受阻的 3,200”。

六 · 原铝现货市场

确认/最新 (部分滞后至 7 月 22–24 日)

  • 华东: 盘面周五回落后备货情绪略回暖,去库超预期使现货偏紧、供方挺价,下游接货平稳偏淡;成交约 贴水 20 至平水(对 SHFE 08),部分 SMM+10 至 +20。
  • 华中(河南): 高库存 + 订单弱,下游接货谨慎;持续贴水(约 −120 至 −150 元/吨);供方挺价。
  • 华南: 终端需求仍弱;整体偏淡、观望,税票流通为制约;去库延续。

解读

  • 华东因去库超预期最坚挺,盘面周五回落令追高情绪略回暖;华中偏软、华南偏淡;升贴水随盘面与到货节奏波动。
  • 若去库维持节奏跌破 100 万吨,现货有望进一步走强;但油价溢价消退、美元走强、淡季需求(铝棒累库)与周五再度受阻的 3,200 限制近端上行。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多

  • 加速去库(SMM 主流消费地约 102.2 万吨、100 万吨在望,华东超预期;再生第 8 周去库;LME 库存约 28.4 万吨、年内 −43%、7 月初以来处 30 万吨下方)——为盘面提供底部。
  • 结构性转向下半年短缺(全球约 93 万吨);运行产能触及 4,500 万吨政策天花板。
  • 海外区域升水维持高位(日本 MJP、欧洲、美中西部);几内亚铝土矿供应风险。
  • 红海胡塞威胁仍在(周内袭击沙特油轮 Encelia/Layla),海峡区域承载全球约 9% 铝供应——若谈判破裂则溢价重燃。
  • 中国 6 月出口 +27%、PMI 扩张、LPR 维稳;LME 强于 SHFE 格局延续,伦铝周内 +0.9%。

利空

  • 油价周五回落约 2–4%、供应风险溢价消退——美伊谈判重启预期(中方推动、巴方斡旋)令 Brent 自 100 上方回落至约 97–98,削弱周内反弹核心驱动;地缘若持续降温则溢价进一步回吐。
  • 美元走强至约 101.3(近一个月高位、15 个月高位附近)——对金属偏空。
  • 加息预期延续(7 月加息约 35–36.5%、9 月偏高);7月28–29 日 FOMC(7月29日决议) 为下周近端风险。
  • 3,200 硬顶周五再度受阻(伦铝 −0.83% 回落)——未确认放量突破前上行受限;失守 3,120 则重回区间震荡。
  • 氧化铝随新增供应走弱(SMM 指数约 2,720、四市场约 2,548)→ 成本支撑走弱;淡季需求 + 铝棒两周累库、龙头加工开工率约 61.3%;Q2 GDP 同比 +4.3% 走弱、地产投资约 −18%;海外复产/新产能中期供应压力。

八 · 一句话观点

铝价在周内供应风险反弹后于周末转弱——驱动本轮反弹的油价周五大跌约 2–4% 自 100 上方回落至约 97–98 美元(美伊谈判重启预期,中方推动、巴方斡旋),令海外能源/供应风险溢价降温,美元同步走强至约 101.3;伦铝周五于 3,200 硬顶再度受阻、确认收 3,165.05 美元(−0.83%,周内仍 +0.9%),仅余加速去库(主流消费地约 102.2 万吨、LME 约 28.4 万吨)托住基础,故基调转为偏建设性但受限、溢价消退——盘面料在 3,120–3,200 区间运行、上行需 3,200 确认突破且油价溢价回稳,沪铝/伦铝周末休市使周一重启成为首个价格窗口,油价能否守住 100 下方(溢价消退)、7月28–29 日 FOMC(7月29日决议)、美元走向,以及去库能否跌破 100 万吨(对冲铝棒累库)为双向裁决者。

九 · 下周盘（周一重启及夜盘）关注清单

  1. 周一沪铝 AL2608 重启(估周五约 23,100–23,300)能否守稳 23,100 / MA10 并再攻 23,400/23,500,还是回补至 23,000;首度消化周末油价回落与美伊谈判重启预期。
  2. LME 3M(周五确认 3,165.05、周五于 3,200 受阻):周一能否重新上攻并确认收上 3,200 硬顶打开 MA30(~3,250)空间,还是在油价溢价消退下偏向 3,120–3,200 区间下沿。
  3. 油价与地缘(核心主线): 美伊谈判重启(中方推动、巴方斡旋)是否推进、停止对沙特/海湾袭击的前提能否落实;Brent 能否守住 100 下方(溢价消退 vs 若谈判破裂则重燃);特朗普是否兑现”大规模”打击表态。
  4. 美元指数(~101.3): 能否延续走强(偏空金属),还是油价回落令加息押注降温、美元回落。
  5. 美联储路径与 7月28–29 日 FOMC: FedWatch 7 月按兵不动(约 63.5%)与加息(约 35–36.5%)的变动;油价回落是否软化加息定价;本次无 SEP,7月29日 14:00 ET 决议、Warsh 14:30 发布会。
  6. 库存与现货: 下一期 SMM 铝锭去库数据能否延续、主流消费地跌破 100 万吨;铝棒累库是否扩大;LME 库存 28.4 万吨下方走向;华东(超预期)/华中/华南升贴水;氧化铝指数(续跌则成本下移)。
  7. 股市风险情绪与中国: 周末休市后周一亚太开盘对大型科技资本开支与油价回落的反应;Q2 GDP 走弱后地产/基建/出口的后续信号。

数据来源: SMM(上海有色网)铝早会纪要、现货点评、周度铝锭/铝棒/再生库存与氧化铝指数;LME;SHFE;TradingEconomics(LME 铝周五约 3,165.05、−0.83%、美元指数约 101.3、Brent 约 98.38/−2.29%);metal.com/Worthwill(伦铝盘中);CME FedWatch/Polymarket(美联储概率:7 月按兵不动约 63.5%、加息约 35–36.5%);Reuters/US News/CNBC/Bloomberg/Al Jazeera(周五油价回落约 2–4%、巴基斯坦在中国推动下寻求重启美伊谈判、红海胡塞袭击沙特油轮 Encelia/Layla、特朗普权衡”大规模”打击);AlCircle/SMM(中国去库、铝棒累库、再生库存、下游开工、冶炼利润、华东去库超预期);麦格理/AlCircle(2026 短缺、海外升水);中国国家统计局(Q2 GDP、6 月 PMI、出口);央行(LPR);Mysteel(运行产能)。数据口径:7 月 24 日周五伦铝确认收盘约 3,165.05 为最新确认价;成文于 7 月 26 日周日,沪铝/伦铝周末休市、周五后无新盘面价,下周一(7月27日)重启;沪铝周五收盘/夜盘为估算;部分华东/华中现货与升贴水报价滞后至 7 月 22–24 日;库存口径在 SMM 不同序列间存在差异(铝锭主流消费地约 102.2 万吨、方向向下,铝棒约 12.1 万吨、两周小幅累库);氧化铝 SMM 指数(约 2,720)与四市场加权(约 2,548)口径不同;FedWatch 概率因油价通胀在不同快照间波动;油价回落、美伊谈判与红海/霍尔木兹地缘为新闻确认,铝价影响为解读。确认数据与市场解读在文中分别标注。

免责声明: 本简报仅供内部参考,基于公开信息整理,不构成任何投资建议或买卖依据。数据可能存在延迟或误差,请以交易所及官方发布为准。使用者应独立判断并自行承担决策风险。

1 · Market Performance

Data LME 3-month aluminum, latest (Friday confirmed close; weekend markets closed)

  • Friday July 24 confirmed close ~$3,165.05/mt, −0.83% d/d (~−$26.50 vs Thursday’s confirmed $3,191.55; TradingEconomics) — still the last confirmed settlement. The daytime session pressed the $3,200 hard cap and was rejected once more, but the week still finished higher — ~+0.9% off Monday’s $3,137.80. Today is Sunday; LME/SHFE are closed for the weekend, so no fresh exchange print lands until Monday’s reopen (July 27) (weekend closed).
  • Up ~1.7% over the past month and ~+18% YoY; the rebound off the early-July four-month low of ~$3,085 has widened, but Friday was rejected again at the top of the range at $3,200. The weekend’s core variable has shifted: oil pulled back ~2–4% from above $100 on Friday (see below), cooling the supply-risk premium — a potential drag on Monday’s reopen.
  • Structure (est.): the $3,165.05 close sits above MA5 (~$3,155) and MA10 (~$3,160), just below MA20 (~$3,185); still capped by MA30 (~$3,250) and MA60 (~$3,400) — $3,200 is the key pivot: a confirmed close above opens $3,250, repeated rejection keeps it in a $3,120–$3,200 range, and a fading oil premium risks a test of $3,120.

View SHFE aluminum, most-traded AL2608, Friday (market closed for weekend; estimated; reopens Monday)

  • View With today being Sunday and the SHFE closed for the weekend, the latest confirmed close remains Friday’s daytime session. Given LME’s Friday rejection at $3,200, Friday’s oil pullback and a dollar that firmed to ~101.3, the SHFE most-traded contract likely eased from its highs in Friday’s session/overnight, estimated in the 23,100–23,300 band (SMM had AL2608 at 23,075 on July 14 and AL2606 ~23,030 on July 21; lifted with LME’s weekly rebound, giving some back Friday) — restrained by the repeated $3,200 rejection, persistent Fed-hike expectations and off-season demand, lagging LME (“LME outperforms SHFE”). Monday’s open will be the first to digest the weekend oil pullback and the US–Iran talks-revival hopes.
  • Structure (est.): likely still holding MA5/MA10 (~23,100), resistance 23,400/23,500; holding 23,100 keeps it firm, a break refills toward 23,000. Range ~23,000–23,400.

View Level assessment

  • Both boards lifted from low-level consolidation toward the top of the range, then Friday was rejected at the top — and the oil supply-risk premium that drove the rebound softened over the weekend, loosening the core bull.
  • SHFE: support MA10 (~23,100) / 23,000; resistance 23,400 then 23,500. The pivot is whether it holds 23,100 and re-tests 23,400.
  • LME: support MA10 (~$3,160) then $3,120; resistance the $3,200 hard cap then MA30 (~$3,250). The pivot is whether it confirms a close above $3,200 — otherwise it stays in a $3,120–$3,200 range, tilting toward the low end if the oil premium keeps fading.
  • Direction hinges on whether the US–Iran talks push holds oil below $100 (premium out), the dollar (~101.3), hike pricing into the July 28–29 FOMC (decision July 29), and whether the destock breaks below 1 Mt. The weekend close makes Monday’s reopen the first price-confirmation window.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data/latest (LME Friday confirmed; weekend closed; some China spot prints lag to July 22–24)

  • SMM A00 ingot: ~23,050–23,250 CNY/mt, easing slightly with Friday’s pullback ↓ — the destock keeps spot tight, but the board’s rejection at $3,200 softened quotes; the off-season keeps downstream cautious on chasing, with turnover steady-to-subdued.
  • East China premium/discount: mainstream ~−20 CNY/mt discount to parity (vs SHFE 08) ↔ — restocking sentiment warmed slightly after the pullback, with tight spot supporting premiums; turnover steady; East-China destock beat expectations and suppliers held firm (some trades at SMM+10 to +20).
  • LME aluminum: Friday $3,165.05 (−0.83%) confirmed, ~+0.9% WoW; the daytime session rejected at $3,200 ↓ — supply-risk premium supportive but the hard cap turned it back, with the oil premium softening over the weekend.
  • ADC12 (secondary alloy): ≈24,100 CNY/mt, flat ↔ (the Sep contract ~22,980); tight scrap plus a record-wide seasonal spread to primary lend cost support; imported ADC12 offers ~$3,050–3,190/mt.
  • Alumina: softness persists ↓; SMM alumina index ~2,720 CNY/mt; four-market weighted ~2,548 CNY/mt; regions broadly easing — the lone laggard, still lowering the cost floor and keeping smelter profit elevated.
  • Crude: Brent ~$97–98 (Friday fell ~2–4%, the biggest one-day drop since late June, back below $100 from Thursday’s $100+) ↓ (WTI ~$92–93) — the pullback came on reports that Pakistan, in a China-initiated push, is seeking to revive stalled US–Iran talks (a halt in Gulf/Saudi attacks now a stated pre-requisite), tempering the premium; but the Red Sea Houthi threat stays live and Trump is reported to be weighing a “massive” strike — oil is two-sided, geopolitics unresolved.
  • Dollar index: ~101.3, firmed near a one-month high (off the 101.5 July-23 top) ↑ — the energy pullback only partly softened hike bets, with the dollar still near 15-month highs; bearish for metals.

View

  • The destock still underpins spot, with A00 tight but easing slightly Friday alongside the board; the off-season and the $3,200 hard cap kept chasing cautious and turnover subdued.
  • The week’s core variable — oil — shifted over the weekend: Friday’s ~2–4% pullback below $100 on the US–Iran talks-revival hopes (China-initiated, Pakistan-brokered) cooled the supply-risk premium, while the dollar firmed to ~101.3 — the two together lean bearish for metals. If the oil premium keeps fading and the dollar stays firm into Monday’s reopen, LME may struggle to re-test $3,200 and tilt toward the low end of $3,120–$3,200. Alumina remains the persistent laggard.

3 · Inventory

Data/latest

  • China aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock: SMM’s major-consumption-area caliber ~1.022 Mt, with draws concentrated in Guangdong and Wuxi and East-China destocking beating expectations; the 1.0 Mt level is in sight. Inventory peaked near 1.465–1.47 Mt in early May (major-area caliber) — a cumulative destock of ~440–450 kt, trending firmly lower (recent weekly withdrawals briefly hit a near-four-year single-week high of ~170 kt). (Calibers differ across SMM series; both trend lower.)
  • Billet: major-consumption-area social inventory ~121 kt on July 23, +1 kt vs the prior Monday and +6.5 kt vs the prior Thursday — a second straight week of a small build (the first this year); the absolute level is still below the prior two years, but it signals the billet-segment destock logic has slowed/turned since June, an off-season tell worth watching for transmission to ingots.
  • Secondary aluminum alloy (foundry alloy) ingot social inventory ~25.9 kt — an 8th straight week of destocking (cumulative ~−37 kt), though the pace has slowed; amid tax-invoice constraints and favorable spot–futures spreads prompting sales.
  • LME stocks ~284,000 mt — below the 300 kt line first breached in early July (lowest since 2022), −43% YTD; cancelled warrants elevated. Forecasters peg the 2026 global deficit near ~930 kt.

View

  • Accelerating destocking (domestic ingot, secondary and LME all drawing) remains the single most important bullish support and the floor under the board — but with the oil premium softening over the weekend, the destock now stands more alone as the dominant support rather than resonating with the supply-risk premium. East-China destock beat expectations and suppliers held firm, with tight spot supporting premiums.
  • Absolute domestic ingot inventory is closing on 1 Mt, but a second straight week of billet buildup plus the high-temperature off-season and more casting ingots keep renewed buildup a live risk; the key tell is whether the next ingot print confirms withdrawals holding pace below the 1 Mt mark, and whether the billet build widens.

4 · Macro Factors

Data/latest

  • The disinflation theme and the oil pullback crosscut, and hike expectations persist: June CPI (3.5% YoY, below the 3.8% consensus) and a soft June PPI had cooled hike bets, and the Red Sea/Hormuz conflict briefly drove Brent above $100 as an inflation tail; but Friday’s ~2–4% oil pullback (US–Iran talks-revival hopes) modestly softened those bets — yet the dollar still firmed to ~101.3, showing the hike path is not gone. SMM explicitly cites “persistent US Fed rate-hike expectations” capping aluminum’s upside.
  • Fed: CME FedWatch (as of July 23) — July 28–29 hold the base case (~63.5%), +25bp ~35–36.5%, with officials divided and the oil-inflation episode keeping a hike in play; the current range is 3.50–3.75% and there is no Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting. The July 28–29 FOMC (decision July 29, 2:00pm ET; Warsh press conference 2:30pm) is next week’s key event — two days after Monday’s reopen.
Meeting Hold +25 bps
July 28–29 ~63.5% ~35–36.5%
September elevated/uncertain rising
  • Dollar index ~101.3, firmed near a one-month high ↑ — the energy pullback only partly softened hike bets, with the dollar still near 15-month highs; bearish for metals.
  • Geopolitics/energy (bull loosening): the Houthis struck Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea this week (the carriers Encelia and Layla) and claimed a blockade of Saudi ports, with Hormuz crossings briefly collapsing; but Brent fell ~2–4% below $100 on Friday on reports that Pakistan, in a China-initiated push, is seeking to revive stalled US–Iran talks (a halt in Gulf/Saudi attacks a stated pre-requisite) — cooling the supply-risk premium. Per SMM, the Strait region carries ~9% of global aluminum supply; geopolitics stays two-sided (Trump reported to be weighing a “massive” strike), but the weekend tilted marginally toward de-escalation.
  • Equities/risk sentiment: Big-Tech capex weighed (Alphabet, Tesla softened post-earnings) even as Asia chips firmed; the oil pullback eased stagflation worries somewhat. Markets were shut over the weekend, so watch for spillover at Monday’s Asia-Pacific open. Gold ~$4,050, bitcoin ~$65–66K.
  • China: LPR left unchanged (1Y 3.00% / 5Y 3.50%, a 14th straight month); Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY (slowest since 2022; H1 +4.7%); June exports +27% (a beat), manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expansion); property investment ~−18%, still a drag.

View: impact on aluminum

  • Bullish: accelerating destock (major-area ~1.022 Mt, 1 Mt in sight, East China beating expectations); LME stocks ~284 kt, −43% YTD; a prospective H2 deficit (~930 kt global); elevated ex-China premiums; China June exports hot, PMI in expansion, LPR held.
  • Bearish: Friday’s ~2–4% oil pullback cooling the supply-risk premium (US–Iran talks-revival hopes); a firmer dollar (~101.3); persistent hike expectations (July hike ~35–36.5%, September elevated) with the July 28–29 FOMC dead ahead; $3,200 rejected again Friday; softer alumina; off-season demand plus a two-week billet build; a weak Q2 GDP with property a drag.
  • Net: constructive-but-capped with a fading premium — the destock still underpins the base, but the oil supply-risk premium that drove the week’s rebound softened Friday and the dollar firmed, with LME rejected once more at $3,200 (the week still +0.9%), and the July 28–29 FOMC next week’s near-term arbiter. Direction hinges on whether the US–Iran push holds oil below $100 (premium out), whether $3,200 is cleared on a confirmed close, and whether a firmer dollar and the FOMC turn the macro against metals. The weekend close makes Monday’s reopen the first pricing window.

5 · Fundamentals

Data: ex-China regional premiums remain elevated (tighter-supply expectations)

Region Premium Note
Japan MJP (spot) ~380–395 USD/mt decade-high range
Europe P1020A (duty-paid) ~547.5 USD/mt ~+62% YTD
US Midwest DDP ~110.5¢/lb (~2,435 USD/mt) ~+18% YTD
  • Overseas supply: ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term drag (Indonesia/Middle East led), but the near term has been dominated by the Red Sea/Hormuz situation and elevated European/Asian gas costs — Gulf energy and logistics risk is an energy-supply risk to ex-China smelters; if the US–Iran push advances and geopolitics de-escalates, that risk premium would fade. Guinea (~40% of global bauxite, ~70% of seaborne exports) is pushing local processing and export curbs — a medium-term bauxite-supply risk. LME stocks <300 kt reinforce the tightness.
  • Domestic supply: operating capacity ~45.31 Mt/yr (pressing the 45 Mt policy ceiling; installed ~46.1–46.3 Mt); output near capacity, liquid-aluminum share rising. The market is seen shifting from surplus toward deficit through H2-26 (~930 kt global) — structurally supportive.
  • Alumina: operating capacity ~96.2 Mt/yr, utilization ~78%; production growing ~8% (outpacing metal) → surplus pressure, prices easing (SMM index ~2,720, four-market ~2,548) → smelter costs lower, profit elevated, cost support eroding.
  • Downstream: high-temperature off-season; leading processor operating rate ~61.3% (−0.6 ppt M-o-M); PV/grid/auto/export supported by an export recovery (June exports +27%), construction/property weak, packaging steady; the two-week billet build reflects marginally softer off-season processing demand.
  • Spot sentiment: East China firmest (~−20 discount to parity, destock beating expectations, suppliers firm, steady turnover, some SMM+10 to +20); Central China softest (persistent −120 to −150 discount); South China subdued/wait-and-see, constrained by tax-invoice circulation.

View

  • Elevated ex-China premiums + accelerating destock (East China beating expectations) + a capacity ceiling and prospective H2 deficit = a genuine floor; but the Red Sea/Hormuz energy-supply risk would fade if the US–Iran push de-escalates, and softer alumina, off-season demand (billet building), a firmer dollar, ex-China new capacity and persistent hike expectations are the medium-term drags.
  • Price stays a tug-of-war: “destock floor / H2 deficit / ex-China premiums / hot exports vs off-season + billet build + alumina weakness + a firmer dollar + persistent hike expectations + a fading oil premium + a Friday-rejected $3,200.”

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data/latest (some prints lag to July 22–24)

  • East China: restocking sentiment warmed slightly after Friday’s pullback, with the better-than-expected destock keeping spot tight and suppliers firm; downstream buying steady-to-subdued; trades ~−20 CNY/mt discount to parity (vs SHFE 08), some at SMM+10 to +20.
  • Central China (Henan): high inventory + weak orders keep buyers cautious; persistent discount (~−120 to −150 CNY/mt); suppliers firm on price.
  • South China: end-use demand still weak; overall subdued/wait-and-see, tax-invoice circulation a constraint; destock continuing.

View

  • East China held firmest on the better-than-expected destock, and Friday’s pullback warmed restocking sentiment slightly; Central China stayed soft and South China subdued; premiums/discounts swing with the board and arrival pace.
  • If destock holds pace below 1 Mt, spot should firm further; but a fading oil premium, a firmer dollar, off-season demand (billet building) and the Friday-rejected $3,200 cap the near-term upside.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

  • Accelerating destock (SMM major-area ~1.022 Mt, 1 Mt in sight, East China beating expectations; secondary an 8th week of draws; LME stocks ~284 kt, −43% YTD, below 300 kt since early July) — a floor under the board.
  • Structural shift toward an H2-26 deficit (~930 kt global); operating capacity at the 45 Mt policy ceiling.
  • Elevated ex-China regional premiums (Japan MJP, Europe, US Midwest); Guinea bauxite-supply risk.
  • Red Sea Houthi threat still live (this week’s strikes on Saudi tankers Encelia/Layla); the Strait region carries ~9% of global aluminum supply — the premium could reignite if talks collapse.
  • China June exports +27%, PMI in expansion, LPR held; the “LME outperforms SHFE” pattern persists, LME +0.9% on the week.

Bearish

  • Friday’s ~2–4% oil pullback, cooling the supply-risk premium — US–Iran talks-revival hopes (China-initiated, Pakistan-brokered) knocked Brent below $100 to ~$97–98, weakening the week’s core driver; further de-escalation would give back more of the premium.
  • A firmer dollar (~101.3) — near a one-month high and 15-month highs; bearish for metals.
  • Persistent hike expectations (July hike ~35–36.5%, September elevated); the July 28–29 FOMC (decision July 29) a near-term risk next week.
  • $3,200 hard cap rejected again Friday (LME −0.83%) — upside limited until a confirmed break on volume; a loss of $3,120 returns it to range trade.
  • Alumina easing on fresh supply (SMM index ~2,720, four-market ~2,548) → cost support eroding; off-season demand plus a two-week billet build, processor rate ~61.3%; a weak Q2 GDP (+4.3%) with property investment ~−18%; ex-China restarts/new capacity a medium-term supply pressure.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Aluminum softened over the weekend after the week’s supply-risk rebound — the oil spike that drove it reversed as Brent fell ~2–4% below $100 to ~$97–98 on Friday (US–Iran talks-revival hopes, China-initiated and Pakistan-brokered), cooling the ex-China energy/supply-risk premium as the dollar firmed to ~101.3, and LME was rejected again at the $3,200 hard cap to a confirmed Friday close of ~$3,165.05 (−0.83%, still +0.9% WoW), leaving the accelerating destock (major-area ~1.022 Mt, LME ~284 kt) as the base’s main support; the read shifts to constructive-but-capped with a fading premium — the tape likely trades a $3,120–$3,200 range, upside needs a confirmed break of $3,200 and a re-firming oil premium, and with markets shut until Monday’s reopen whether oil holds below $100 (premium out), the July 28–29 FOMC (decision July 29), the dollar’s direction, and whether the destock breaks below 1 Mt (against a billet build) are the two-sided arbiters.

9 · Watchlist for the Week (Monday Reopen & Night Sessions)

  1. Monday’s SHFE AL2608 reopen (est. Friday ~23,100–23,300): whether it holds 23,100 / MA10 and re-tests 23,400/23,500, or refills toward 23,000 — the first to digest the weekend oil pullback and the US–Iran talks-revival hopes.
  2. LME 3M (Friday confirmed $3,165.05; rejected at $3,200 Friday): can it re-press and confirm a close above the $3,200 hard cap to open MA30 (~$3,250), or does it tilt toward the low end of a $3,120–$3,200 range as the oil premium fades?
  3. Oil & geopolitics (core story): whether the US–Iran talks push (China-initiated, Pakistan-brokered) advances and the halt-attacks pre-requisite is met; whether Brent holds below $100 (premium out vs a reignition if talks collapse); whether Trump follows through on the reported “massive” strike.
  4. Dollar index (~101.3): does it extend its firm trade (bearish for metals), or does the oil pullback cool hike pricing and pull it back?
  5. Fed path & the July 28–29 FOMC: FedWatch July-hold odds (~63.5%) and hike odds (~35–36.5%); whether the oil pullback softens hike pricing; no SEP, decision July 29 2:00pm ET, Warsh presser 2:30pm.
  6. Inventory & spot: whether the next SMM ingot destock print extends and the major-area caliber breaks below 1 Mt; whether the billet build widens; LME stock trend below 284 kt; East (beating expectations)/Central/South China premiums; alumina index (further declines lower the cost floor).
  7. Equity risk sentiment & China: how Monday’s Asia-Pacific open reacts to Big-Tech capex and the oil pullback after the weekend; follow-through on property/infrastructure/exports after the weak Q2 GDP.

Sources: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) aluminum morning meeting minutes, spot reviews, weekly ingot/billet/secondary inventory & alumina index; LME; SHFE; TradingEconomics (LME aluminum Friday ~$3,165.05, −0.83%; DXY ~101.3; Brent ~$98.38 / −2.29%); metal.com/Worthwill (intraday LME); CME FedWatch/Polymarket (Fed odds: July hold ~63.5%, hike ~35–36.5%); Reuters/US News/CNBC/Bloomberg/Al Jazeera (Friday’s ~2–4% oil pullback; Pakistan’s China-initiated push to revive US–Iran talks; Red Sea Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers Encelia/Layla; Trump weighing a “massive” strike); AlCircle/SMM (China destock, billet build, secondary inventory, downstream operating rate, smelter profit, East-China destock beating expectations); Macquarie/AlCircle (2026 deficit, ex-China premiums); China NBS (Q2 GDP, June PMI, exports); PBoC (LPR); Mysteel (operating capacity). Data window: Friday July 24 LME confirmed close ~$3,165.05 is the last confirmed settlement; written Sunday July 26 — SHFE/LME closed for the weekend with no fresh exchange print since Friday, reopening Monday July 27; the SHFE Friday close/overnight is estimated; some East/Central China spot and premium prints lag to July 22–24; inventory calibers differ across SMM series (ingot major-consumption-areas ~1.022 Mt, trending lower; billet ~121 kt, a two-week small build); alumina SMM index (~2,720) differs from the four-market weighted (~2,548); FedWatch odds have been volatile across snapshots on the oil-inflation episode; the Friday oil pullback, the US–Iran talks push and the Red Sea/Hormuz geopolitics are confirmed news with the aluminum price impact carried as interpretation. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately in the text.

Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice or any basis for trading decisions. Data may be delayed or contain errors; please defer to official exchange releases. Users should exercise independent judgment and bear their own decision risk.