Trump calls off the Iran strike and Hormuz reopening enters the deal terms. Brent drops 4.8% and the last bullish tail is gone.特朗普取消对伊打击,霍尔木兹重开写入协议条款;Brent 下跌 4.8%,最后的多头尾部风险消失。

1 · Market Performance

Data — no confirmed August 3 print at the time of writing

• As of writing (morning of August 3, Asia), no confirmed August 3 price print for SHFE aluminum, SHFE alumina or LME aluminum could be obtained. TradingEconomics’ aluminum page carries an August 3 update stamp, but its last actual quotation remains July 31’s $3,194.65. All exchange levels below are the July 31 confirmed caliber.
• SHFE most-traded AL2609 (July 31 day session): open 23,650, high 23,760, low 23,620, close 23,630, settlement 23,665; change +45 on the settlement caliber (+0.19%) or +5 on the close caliber (+0.02%); volume 139,957 lots; open interest 247,263.
• LME 3M (July 31): $3,194.65 (+0.02%); month +3.14%, year +24.14%. Alternative vendor caliber $3,195 (+$2).
• July 30 night session (confirmed): open 23,650, high 23,725, low 23,630, close 23,720, +0.40%. That print belongs to the July 30 night session, not July 31’s; the July 31 night session still has no verifiable source and is not quoted.

Data — the only live cross-asset prints available today

• Brent crude: $83.69/bbl, −4.82% on August 3; month +16.25%, year +21.71% (TradingEconomics caliber). The page attributes the fall explicitly to the resumption of peace talks with Iran after the cancelled strike.
• US dollar index: 99.4474, −0.47% on August 3; past month −1.39%, past 12 months +0.67% (TradingEconomics caliber).
• View With no aluminum print available, Brent is the cleanest proxy of the session. −4.82% is a live vote, not commentary; it measures how much the market currently believes the Hormuz-reopening clause. Aluminum’s exposure to that clause runs in the same direction as crude’s but through a more direct mechanism — crude is pricing flow restoration, aluminum is pricing the return of Gulf capacity.

Carried forward — moving averages (July 30 vendor caliber, now three sessions stale)

• SHFE: MA5 23,587.56, MA10 23,462.56, MA20 23,346.68, MA40 23,297.85, MA60 23,371.70 — 23,630 is above all five.
• LME: MA5 $3,178.34, MA10 $3,172.71, MA20 $3,182.56 — $3,194.65 is above all three.
• (Note: SMM’s own July 30 qualitative read placed SHFE above MA5/MA10/MA30 but below MA60, contradicting this vendor set, apparently a contract-caliber difference. Both are carried. Three sessions stale — the moving-average read is effectively unusable today.)

View Level assessment

• On paper both boards remain at the absolute high of the rebound — SHFE above all five averages, LME above all three — but those positions were built on a premise that has now been cancelled. The July 30–31 high-level consolidation rested in part on the assumption that the Gulf restart timetable kept slipping. After Saturday night, that assumption no longer holds.
• The resistance band is unchanged but its meaning is not: SHFE 23,725 (July 30 night high) – 23,760 (July 31 day high), a 35-yuan window; LME $3,200 (hard cap) and $3,211.50. The band has failed four times, and the logic above it has now been removed.
• The support hierarchy needs re-ordering: near-term still SHFE 23,500 and MA5 (~23,588), LME MA10 (~$3,173) and MA20 (~$3,183); but the more relevant reference now is the floor of SMM’s published week range — SHFE 23,000 and LME $3,100. That range was published before the cancellation, and its lower half is the operative one (interpretation).
• The June 15 precedent gives the order of magnitude: on the earlier interim framework LME aluminium fell 4.4% to a $3,379.50 settlement, its lowest since March 27, then a further 3.0% to $3,262.50 on June 23 with a $3,225.50 intraday low. But the starting point matters: that move began at $3,855 on June 2, and today’s starts at $3,194.65 — most of the premium has already come out between June and July, so extrapolating June’s magnitude would overstate today’s remaining downside (interpretation).

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Data — all aluminum-related prices July 31; crude and dollar are live August 3

• SMM A00 / Shanghai spot ingot: 23,630 CNY/mt, unchanged (0) ↔
• Regional spot: Foshan/Nanhai 23,740 (0) ↔; Wuxi 23,600 (−10) ↓; Hangzhou 23,650 (−10) ↓; Chongqing 23,630 (−30) ↓.
• Spot basis (this brief’s own computation): A00 23,630 against AL2609’s 23,630 close is par (0); against the 23,665 settlement it is a 35-yuan discount. (Labeled interpretation; not SMM’s official front-month basis.)
• Foshan-over-Shanghai spread: 110 yuan (this brief’s earlier caliber) / 115 yuan, +50 on the week (SMM inventory-analysis caliber). Both carried. SMM states the widening was driven by a sharp drop in arrivals, not stronger demand.
• LME aluminum: $3,194.65 (+0.02%) ↔ (alternative caliber $3,195, +$2). No confirmed August 3 print.
• LME stocks: 271,275 mt (July 24), lowest since records began in January 1998 ↓; on-warrant 245,350 mt. No update for a ninth consecutive trading day; marginal information content is now zero.
• SHFE aluminum warehouse stocks: 448,742 mt (July 27–31 weekly), −6,350 w/w ↓; Henan +14,010 the sole builder.
• China social ingot inventory: 953 kt (July 30) ↓; billet 119.5 kt (July 30) ↓.
• ADC12 (July 31): national average 24,200 CNY/mt, unchanged ↔; East, South, Southwest and Northeast China all 24,200. A380 26,100, AlSi9Cu3 25,100, A356 24,100, A360 24,250, ZLD102 23,750, ZLD104 23,850 — all unchanged ↔.
• Alumina futures: AO2609 close 2,621 (−27), low 2,618 a new low for the move; open interest 242,811 (−6,081), a third straight session of position reduction ↓. No confirmed August 3 print; the futures-spot divergence is unresolved.
• Alumina spot: SMM alumina index 2,706.65 (−0.71) ↓; Guizhou 2,775, Henan 2,750, Shanxi 2,740, Shandong 2,725, Guangxi 2,635 — every regional quote unchanged.
• SHFE alumina warehouse stocks: 372,008 mt, +4,289 w/w ↑.
• Crude: Brent $83.69, −4.82% on August 3 ↓↓; month +16.25%, year +21.71%. The July 31 settlement appears in three calibers — about $88 (+1.2%), $87.93, and $90.12 — all carried, none adopted.
• Dollar index: 99.4474, −0.47% on August 3 ↓; past month −1.39%. A separate vendor caliber says the index “rebounded to 100.3 on Friday, down nearly 1.5% on the week,” conflicting with TradingEconomics’ 99.78 and the 99.83 settle caliber. Both flagged.

View

• Today’s core content in this section is not the aluminum price but what the other assets said in its absence. Brent −4.82% and the dollar −0.47% moving together says this is not a risk-appetite rotation but a single-event withdrawal of supply-risk premium — the dollar did not strengthen, yet the commodity still fell, which points at supply returning rather than demand weakening. That combination is the worst possible shape for aluminum, because aluminum cannot hedge a Hormuz reopening with a softer dollar.
• Alumina’s futures-spot divergence enters the week intact — three down sessions, a 2,618 low, spot unmoved — and now carries an extra layer: if Gulf logistics normalize, EGA’s Al Taweelah refinery (2.4 Mt in 2025, 46% of EGA’s needs) improves its ability to ship, giving the cost-side collapse fresh marginal support (interpretation).
• ADC12 and the secondary complex are flat everywhere for a second session, while July’s secondary-alloy PMI was 37.6%, the weakest of seven sub-sectors. A stall is not stability; it is waiting for a direction.

3 · Inventory

Data — no new print; two new structural details

• China ingot: 953 kt (July 30 SMM weekly), −53 kt versus July 23, and −512 kt (−35%) from the early-May high of 1,465 kt.
• Weekly warehouse withdrawals: 127,700 mt. Newly confirmed comparison: the prior week was 137,400 mt, and June peaked at 170,000 mt, a four-year seasonal high. Withdrawals have now fallen two weeks running, and the rate of decline is widening.
• Newly confirmed regional structure: Foshan withdrew 30,400 mt and was the only region to buck the decline; its spread over Shanghai widened 50 yuan to 115 yuan on the sharpest drop in arrivals. East and Central China are described as sluggish transactions with falling outflows.
• Newly confirmed annual comparison: cumulative destocking magnitude is 35% in 2026, against 26% in 2024 and 30% in 2025. SMM frames this as “high starting base plus accelerated destocking.”
• Billet: 119.5 kt (July 30).
• SHFE aluminum: 448,742 mt, −6,350 w/w; Jiangsu −11,261, Guangdong −5,297, Shandong −1,485, Shanghai −1,051, Zhejiang 0, Henan +14,010.
• SHFE alumina: 372,008 mt, +4,289 w/w (Xinjiang +5,096, Guangxi +3,308, Shandong −1,800).
• Bonded (July 30): Shanghai 83.4 kt, Guangdong 30.0 kt, total 113.4 kt, +20 kt w/w ↑.
• National alumina inventory: 7.028 Mt (July 30), +24 kt w/w ↑.
• LME: 271,275 mt (July 24), on-warrant 245,350 mt. Ninth session without update.

View SMM has now made the call itself, and this brief adopts it

• In its July 31 inventory analysis SMM writes directly that the current phase is driven by supply contraction rather than demand pull; that June was “downstream buying” and now it is “upstream lacking volume”; and it warns explicitly that “once shipments recover, the destocking slope may quickly flatten.” That matches what this brief has argued since July 30 — it is no longer this brief’s own read but the data provider’s.
• Overlay that characterization on today’s geopolitical change and the key inference of this brief follows: a destock built on “upstream lacking volume” ends the moment upstream volume returns. A Hormuz reopening is precisely the switch that makes foreign metal available again. The 7.4 ratio and roughly 3,300-yuan import loss mean foreign metal cannot flow into China directly in the near term, but a marginal improvement in the global balance transmits back through two channels anyway — the LME price and the ratio itself (interpretation).
• Bonded stocks +20 kt on the week and Henan’s +14,010 single-week build are unchanged as structural reads, and still point at relocation rather than consumption.

4 · Macro

Data — August 1–2 geopolitics, the week’s decisive directional change

• Late Saturday August 1, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was cancelling the planned attack on Iran, contingent on the two sides “rapidly” making a deal. The strike package had been tabled at a July 31 Camp David cabinet meeting with power plants, refineries and Kharg Island among the targets.
• On August 2 Trump said negotiations with Iran resume Monday, August 3.
• The stated deal “perimeters” contain two items: the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
• Mediation structure: Qatari mediators held separate Saturday talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Omani officials; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with Trump urging de-escalation; Trump credited Witkoff, Jared Kushner and JD Vance.

Data — the event is contested, not settled

• Iran’s semi-official Mehr agency, citing unnamed military officials, called Trump’s claim “simply a new lie”; Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful.
• On August 1 an LNG carrier with Qatari-origin cargo was struck in transit; overnight into August 1 two tankers on the southern route were struck and disabled, and four further vessels turned back after warnings (vendor maritime-intelligence caliber, labeled as such).
• No party has published a text, a timetable or a verification mechanism; on the evidence available the Strait is not open.

Data — rates and releases

• The July 29 FOMC held at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote, with three officials preferring a hike.
• September hike odds appear in mutually inconsistent calibers: 76.9% on one tool (which dates the meeting to September 10), 63% on a CME FedWatch caliber, and about 55% on an implied caliber, while centralbank.watch dates the next FOMC to September 16. The meeting date itself is in conflict; all are shown and none is adopted.
• July 31 US data: ECI +0.9%, Chicago PMI 57.6, Michigan final 55.2, one-year inflation expectations 4.2% — all firmer than expected.
• Two releases land today and are not yet available: RatingDog/Caixin China July manufacturing PMI (09:45 Beijing) and the US July ISM manufacturing PMI (10:00 ET). Reference points: the S&P Global US flash manufacturing PMI for July was 53.8 against 53.9 in June and a 54.3 consensus; June ISM manufacturing was 53.3.
• China’s July NBS manufacturing PMI 49.2, new orders 48.5, employment 49.0 (carried).

View Direction call

• Geopolitics: flipped from bullish tail to bearish structural variable. This is a change of sign, not of magnitude. On August 2 this brief booked it as variance; today it must be booked into the center of gravity.
• Crude: −4.82% is unambiguously bearish. Two transmission channels into aluminum, both pointing the same way: lower ex-China smelting and freight costs (weaker cost floor), and premium withdrawal (weaker valuation).
• Dollar: −0.47% is mildly bullish but nowhere near strong enough to offset. And July’s dollar decline lacked rate-side support, with the July 31 data all firmer than expected, so its durability is questionable.
• China policy and data: neutral-to-bearish. The official PMI at 49.2 already confirms contraction; if today’s Caixin caliber also breaks below 50 it becomes a two-caliber confirmation.
• Net: today’s macro mix is clearly bearish for aluminum, and the new variable on the bearish side (the Hormuz clause) is larger in magnitude than the existing variable on the bullish side (a marginally softer dollar).

5 · Fundamentals

Data — overseas supply, the section that changed most today

• Gulf structural facts (carried): the Gulf is about 9% of global primary supply; EGA Al Taweelah (1.50 Mt/yr) and Alba (1.60 Mt/yr) were struck by Iranian missiles and drones on March 28; the region also holds Ma’aden, Qatalum and Sohar.
• The critical distinction: Alba’s Lines 1, 2 and 3 — roughly 311,000 mt/yr, 19% of its total capacity — were placed in a controlled shutdown because of Strait of Hormuz transit disruption, not because of physical damage. View That means the restart condition for this capacity is logistics, not engineering — if the Strait genuinely opens, it comes back materially faster than damaged capacity does.
• Quantified return potential: roughly 700,000 mt of aluminium has been identified as capable of flowing into the market on a Hormuz reopening.
• EGA: as of July 2, 89 of Al Taweelah’s 1,262 pots were operating, anode removal complete and pot cleaning about 90% done; its alumina refinery restarted in July after a three-and-a-half-month outage, produced 2.4 Mt in 2025 covering 46% of EGA’s needs, and is expected to be technically capable of full output by year-end; repair progress has been reported as ahead of schedule.
• July ex-China daily average output +1.6% m/m, the first monthly recovery since the March strikes, with the total still −6.7% y/y; Slovalco 75,000 mt in Q4, Magnitude 7 Metals 75,000 mt/yr by end-2026, Balco 168,000 mt in FY27 Q2 (+17% y/y), Alcoa 636,000 mt in Q2 (+5% q/q), Rio Tinto raising Kitimat and NZAS.
• View Overseas supply recovery had two binding constraints: engineering repair progress, and Hormuz transit. The first was already easing — EGA ahead of schedule, July output positive m/m. The second is the one that changed today. Both loosening at once is a first for this cycle.

Data — domestic supply and cost (newly published August 2–3)

• China’s July average tax-inclusive full cost of primary aluminum rebounded 0.9% m/m and fell 1.7% y/y, driven by modest increases in monthly average alumina, prebaked anode and power prices.
• July’s per-tonne margin narrowed by 1,146 yuan to 6,999 yuan/mt, with average profit +56.8% y/y.
• View A 6,999-yuan margin is extremely wide by any historical standard. A 1,146-yuan narrowing sounds negative, but at that absolute level cost imposes no constraint whatsoever on output — no operating smelter cuts production because its margin fell from 8,145 to 6,999. So “rising costs” cannot be converted into a bullish supply argument here; it is an income-statement event, not a supply event.
• Existing capacity about 46.29 Mt/yr (flat m/m), operating capacity about 45.31 Mt/yr; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m; liquid aluminium ratio 78.3% (+1.1 pt), with 78.5% forecast for August (+0.2 pt).
• Cast-ingot volume −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m.

Data — alumina

• AO2609 fell a third straight session to 2,621 with a new low of 2,618 and a third day of position reduction; SMM alumina index 2,706.65 (−0.71) with all regional spot unchanged; SHFE warrants +4,289 w/w; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24 kt; Guangxi ramping; EGA’s Al Taweelah refinery restarted.

Data — downstream demand

• July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 points m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting: foil 39.0 (production and new orders both 31.8), secondary alloy 37.6, construction extrusion 39.7, industrial extrusion 42.1, primary alloy 43.9, wire and cable 44.4 (production 36.4, −21.1 pt; export orders 23.2, −23.8 pt), plate/sheet/strip 44.8. SMM expects most segments to stay below 50 in August.
• PV is one of the few bright spots: module output rises from 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August, with frame demand supporting steady operations.
• Leading downstream operating rate 60.2% (July 30 caliber), −0.9 point w/w.
• Spot transaction sentiment: weak, wait-and-see. Quotes stopped rising nationally on July 31; downstream buyers balked at the level and bought nothing beyond rigid demand.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Data — July 31 caliber; August 3 spot quotes not yet published

• Overall: the spot complex stopped rising, shifting from following futures up to zero change with small pullbacks. Shanghai and Foshan flat, Wuxi and Hangzhou each −10, Chongqing −30.
• East China: Shanghai 23,630 (0), Wuxi 23,600 (−10), Hangzhou 23,650 (−10). Basis at par to the close, 35-yuan discount to settlement (own computation).
• South China: Nanhai/Foshan 23,740 (0), spread over Shanghai 110 yuan (this brief’s caliber) / 115 yuan, +50 on the week (SMM caliber). Market description: traders propped prices into month-end, then accelerated selling to cash out; downstream balked at the level with very low purchase willingness; “the oversupply pattern continues and overall transactions were somewhat dismal.” But Foshan was the only region where withdrawals rose (30,400 mt on the week), so rigid demand there is relatively the strongest.
• Southwest: Chongqing 23,630 (−30), the largest national decline on July 31.
• Secondary: ADC12 national average 24,200 (0) with all four regions flat; A380 26,100, AlSi9Cu3 25,100, A356 24,100, A360 24,250, ZLD102 23,750, ZLD104 23,850 all unchanged; Japanese import $3,040–3,100 and general import CIF $3,040–3,160, midpoints flat.

Data — sentiment indices (latest available is the July 29 SMM caliber, now stale)

• East China: shipment sentiment index 3.16 (+0.08); purchasing sentiment index 3.00 (unchanged).
• Central China: shipment sentiment index 3.12 (+0.01); purchasing sentiment index 2.82 (−0.04).
• Contemporaneous description: overall buying was mainly rigid-demand restocking; Central China was especially quiet, with traders largely on the sidelines and low willingness to purchase.

View Shipment and purchasing willingness

• Shipment willingness: firm, and should firm further today. The month-end pattern of propping then accelerating sales points to holders lacking confidence in the sustainability of high prices; after the Hormuz clause became public, the incentive to cash out only increases.
• Purchasing willingness: weak. “Balking at the level” and “nothing beyond rigid demand” point to buyers waiting for a pullback; today’s geopolitical change hands them a reason to keep waiting, so the standoff may lengthen rather than shorten.
• The reverse case worth watching: if futures drop quickly below 23,300 on the geopolitical news, long-sidelined downstream buyers may restock in concentration, lifting spot premiums and withdrawals together — that is the only path that would falsify the “low-flow equilibrium” read in the short term (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish

• The deal is not done and Iran has publicly denied it: the Mehr agency, citing military officials, called Trump’s claim “simply a new lie”; there is no text, no timetable and no verification mechanism; an LNG carrier and two tankers were struck around August 1 and four vessels turned back. On the evidence available the Strait is not open, and the logistics constraint on Gulf capacity has not been lifted.
• Most of the premium has already come out: LME has fallen from $3,855 on June 2 to $3,194.65, and the two deal-driven declines of June 15 (−4.4%) and June 23 (−3.0%) have already happened. Extrapolating June’s magnitude would overstate the remaining downside.
• Inventory is still at historic lows in absolute terms: LME 271,275 mt (July 24) is the lowest since January 1998, with on-warrant 245,350 mt under one day of global consumption; China at 953 kt is −35% from the May high; and the dollar is −0.47% at 99.4474 on August 3.

Bearish

• The single most important new bearish item: the strike was cancelled, and the deal terms point directly at a Hormuz reopening. Trump cancelled the attack on August 1 and said on August 2 that talks resume August 3, with the deal “perimeters” including the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT.” This brief named geopolitics as the market’s only incremental bull logic on August 2; within 24 hours it was cancelled and reversed.
• A Hormuz reopening is the mechanism by which Gulf metal returns: roughly 700,000 mt has been quantified as capable of flowing back; Alba’s Lines 1–3 (~311,000 mt/yr, 19% of capacity) are a controlled shutdown caused by transit disruption rather than damage, so their restart condition is logistics not engineering; the Gulf is about 9% of global primary supply; and EGA’s repair is reported ahead of schedule.
• The June 15 precedent sets the order of magnitude: on the previous interim framework LME aluminium fell 4.4% in one session to $3,379.50, its lowest settlement since March 27, then a further 3.0% to $3,262.50 on June 23 with a $3,225.50 intraday low.
• Crude collapsed alongside it: Brent $83.69, −4.82% on August 3. Ex-China smelting and freight cost support weakens with it, and because the fall happened while the dollar was also weakening, it points at supply returning rather than demand weakening.
• The demand case has been falsified by three independent readings: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting, the NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.2 with new orders 48.5, and weekly withdrawals of 127,700 mt against 137,400 mt the prior week — two straight weekly declines with the decline widening.
• The data provider itself downgraded the destock: SMM now describes it as passive, “upstream lacking volume,” and warns that “once shipments recover, the destocking slope may quickly flatten.” The inflow-side contraction is near its limit, with August’s liquid-ratio gain collapsing from +1.1 pt to +0.2 pt.
• Cost cannot become a supply constraint: July full cost +0.9% m/m, but the per-tonne margin is still 6,999 yuan after narrowing only 1,146 yuan, with average profit +56.8% y/y. At that margin there is no incentive to cut output anywhere.
• Overseas supply recovery has moved from expectation to measurement: July ex-China daily average output +1.6% m/m, the first monthly recovery since March, with Slovalco, Magnitude 7, Balco, Alcoa and Rio Tinto all adding and SMM expecting further growth in August.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

1. Whether the talks actually begin today, and whether Iran changes its line (the only first-order item on this list): Trump says negotiations resume August 3; Iran’s Mehr agency says he is lying. Only three things need confirming today: whether talks physically take place; whether either side publishes a timetable or verification mechanism; and whether there is hard evidence of transit actually resuming (tanker traffic counts, insurance rates, owner announcements of resumed routing). If none of the three appears, today’s decline is sentiment pricing and is repairable; if any one appears, it is structural pricing and is not.
2. SHFE’s opening gap and the fight over 23,500: 23,725–23,760 above has failed four times and has now lost its supporting logic; 23,500 and MA5 (~23,588) are the near support. Watch specifically for a clean break of 23,500 and a test of SMM’s week-range floor at 23,000; a low-volume stabilization near 23,500 would say the geopolitical repricing was largely pre-digested on Friday.
3. How closely LME replicates the June 15 precedent: that day it fell 4.4%. A decline today materially smaller than that — say −1% to −2% — is evidence the premium has already been paid out; a move at or beyond −4% says the market rates this deal’s credibility above June’s. Below, MA10 (~$3,173), MA20 (~$3,183) and the $3,100 range floor.
4. Whether Brent holds $83: already −4.82% to $83.69 on August 3. Crude leads this geopolitical repricing and aluminum usually follows with a lag and a smaller magnitude. If Brent breaks $80, aluminum’s cost floor and risk premium both take a second downgrade.
5. Today’s two PMIs: RatingDog/Caixin China July manufacturing (09:45 Beijing) and US July ISM manufacturing (10:00 ET). The first is an independent cross-check on the official 49.2; the second feeds September rate pricing and the dollar (reference: S&P Global US flash manufacturing 53.8 in July, June ISM 53.3).
6. Whether SHFE open interest stops falling: −3,175 on July 30 and −3,338 on July 31, a two-day total of −6,513 to 247,263 lots. On a bearish event, price down with open interest up would mean shorts are actively engaging and the decline has legs; price down with open interest down would be long liquidation and more contained.
7. How alumina’s futures-spot divergence resolves: AO2609 down three sessions to 2,621 with a 2,618 low while spot has not moved. New variable: if Gulf logistics normalize, improved shipping capability at EGA’s Al Taweelah refinery (2.4 Mt/yr) reinforces the surplus expectation. Watch whether spot catches down today or futures rebound through 2,650.
8. Spot basis and the Foshan resilience test: par has held for two sessions. If futures fall quickly today, watch whether A00 firms into a premium and whether Foshan’s 115-yuan spread widens further — that is the fastest read on whether downstream is restocking into weakness, and the only short-term path to falsifying the low-flow-equilibrium call.