Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Both bull pillars crack as China's destock turns to a build. LME prints a six-week high at $3,261.70 anyway.两大多头支柱同时出现裂痕,中国去库转为累库;LME 仍创六周新高至 3,261.70 美元。

Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Wednesday August 5 (Asia). THE DECISIVE OBSERVATION: both pillars of the bull case cracked within twenty-four hours and the board printed a six-week high anyway. PILLAR ONE BROKE — CONFIRMED: SMM China aluminum ingot social inventory turned to 958,000 mt, UP 5,000 mt week-on-week (down 21,000 mt year-on-year), the first weekly BUILD after destocking from the 1.465 Mt early-May peak to 953 kt on July 30. This is the precise outcome SMM warned of when it characterized the destock as passive 'upstream lacking volume' and said the slope could flatten quickly once shipments recovered. PILLAR TWO IS UNDER NEGOTIATION — CONFIRMED STATEMENTS: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC 'there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait' and separately that a deal could arrive 'within two days'; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said 'progress made' in Iran–Oman discussions 'but not finality yet,' with a deal expected 'very shortly.' AP, citing two regional officials, reports the emerging terms: ships ENTER the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and EXIT through an Oman-controlled route, with service fees charged for providing security and preserving the maritime environment; the arrangement appears contingent on the United States lifting its blockade of Iran's ports, and the Trump administration has previously ruled out any deal granting Iran control of the strait. Iranian state television says the middle corridor would 'provide safe traffic through the strait and, once operational, would shut down both the southern and northern routes.' Iran proposed shipping tolls, rejected by Gulf states and the US; an Omani counter-proposal suggests voluntary navigation-service fees on the Strait of Malacca model. Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are coordinating drafts between Washington and Tehran, and Qatar's emir has engaged directly with Trump. COUNTER-EVIDENCE, ALSO CONFIRMED: the Liberia-flagged Minoan Pioneer was struck by a projectile near Oman's coast on Tuesday August 4, causing a fire, with no immediate claim of responsibility; fewer than ten vessels have crossed on some days since hostilities resumed in mid-July; the proposed middle corridor is reportedly mined and would require clearing. CONFIRMED AUGUST 4 EXCHANGE DATA (SMM caliber): SHFE AL2609 open 23,620, range 23,535–23,755, close 23,730, +145 (+0.61%); moving averages MA5 23,616.00, MA10 23,425.50, MA30 23,147.67, MA60 23,772.92 — price is above the first three and 43 yuan BELOW MA60. LME 3M settled $3,231.00, +0.12%, range $3,221.00–3,231.00; MA5 $3,204.50, MA10 $3,189.15, MA30 $3,158.23, MA60 $3,361.74 — above the first three, roughly 4% below MA60. CONFLICTING LME CALIBERS CARRIED IN PARALLEL: TradingEconomics shows August 4 at $3,221.00, −4.80 (−0.15%), month +3.53%, year +25.44%; a further TradingEconomics print of $3,261.70 (+1.11% against August 3's $3,225.80) is described as 'the highest level in six weeks,' with the page narrative reading 'aluminum futures rose above $3,260 per tonne, the highest level in six weeks, amid ongoing supply constraints and weaker production' — this brief reads $3,261.70 as the most recent tick (August 5 electronic) and adopts none of the three as sole truth. YESTERDAY'S RECONSTRUCTION IS NOW CONFIRMED CORRECT: 23,730 minus 145 equals 23,585, exactly the August 3 day-session close this brief derived and labeled as reconstruction; AlCircle's conflicting 23,625 caliber is now the outlier. SPOT: SMM A00 23,500, −130 — sources attribute this print to both August 3 and August 4 and the ambiguity is not resolved here. Regional basis on the SMM caliber, all against the SHFE 2608 front month: East China discount of 20 to parity; Central China discount of 170–190; South China/Foshan premium of 80–120 with mainstream quotes at −10 to 0. IMPORTANT CORRECTION TO YESTERDAY'S FRAMING: the 230-yuan gap between A00 at 23,500 and AL2609 at 23,730 is predominantly the 2608/2609 contract spread, not a demand signal — measured against the correct front month the East China basis is 20 to parity, which is near-neutral, and yesterday's brief overstated the basis collapse. MACRO: US dollar index 99.8424 on August 5, −0.02% on the session (page value 99.865, daily change −0.0017), past month −0.98%, past 12 months +1.72%. Brent $79.14 on August 5, −0.22 (−0.28%), below $79 intraday on Wednesday, a third consecutive down session, weekly loss more than 10%, month +9.93%, year +18.31%, Q3 forecast $90.26. Fed funds 3.63%; next FOMC September 16; the September direction conflict persists unresolved — a July 28 CME FedWatch caliber shows 54.4% for a 25bp CUT against previously carried hike calibers of 76.9%, 63% and about 55% — and no rate figure is adopted. July nonfarm payrolls land Friday August 7, consensus roughly +80,000 to +88,000 after a soft 57,000, unemployment 4.2% to 4.3%; June trade balance consensus about −$73bn after −$77.6bn; June factory orders consensus +0.2% to +0.3%. SUPPLY: SMM has raised its 2026 estimate of planned commissioned operating capacity outside China by 67.8%, to 2.32 Mt from 1.38 Mt; Indonesia's primary aluminum operating capacity is expected at about 2.51 Mt in 2026 against roughly 870 kt in 2025, with Nanshan Indonesia Phase I at 400 kt in 2026 and PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry's 500 kt line expected at full production in October 2026; Balco in India continues ramping through August; Slovalco restarts in Q4 2026 and a Missouri smelter by year-end; Alcoa has cut production guidance after Australian refinery issues; July ex-China output was −6.7% y/y with daily average +1.6% m/m. DEMAND: leading downstream processors' operating rate 61.1%, −0.2 pt (week of July 25) — extrusion 52.9% (−0.4), primary alloy 59.0% (−0.6), secondary aluminum 50.8% (−0.4, a multi-year low), wire and cable 63.6% flat, plate/sheet/strip 69.4% flat, foil 70.9% flat; June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; PV module scheduled output rising from 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August. ALUMINA: AO2609 last confirmed at 2,621 (July 31); SMM puts industry average full cost near 2,530 and the expected band at 2,600–2,650, noting prices may temporarily break below 2,600 in August; bauxite $70–75/mt against just over $60/mt in December 2025; port bauxite inventory 940 kt; nearly 3 Mt of new capacity planned in South China; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24 kt w/w). ADC12 fell 100 yuan/mt on the SMM caliber. LME stocks remain the July 24 report (271,275 mt total, lowest since January 1998; 245,350 mt on-warrant, lowest since April 2025), now an eleventh consecutive stale session, with a 267,800 mt alternative caliber carried alongside. SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants August 3: 17,553 mt, −118 mt — Shanghai 1,506 (0), Guangdong 1,490 (−88), Jiangsu 3,806 (0), Zhejiang 6,932 (−30), Chongqing 3,034 (0), Sichuan 785 (0). Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
China inventory (Aug 3) 958 kt, +5 kt w/w — FIRST BUILD since the May peak
Bessent, on CNBC deal to open the Strait possible 'today or tomorrow'
The reported terms enter via Iran route, exit via Oman route, service fees
Brent (Aug 5) $79.14, third down session, −10%+ on the week
LME 3M $3,231.00 settle +0.12%, then $3,261.70 — six-week high
SHFE AL2609 (Aug 4) 23,730, +145 (+0.61%), range 23,535–23,755
Both boards vs MA60 SHFE −43 yuan, LME −4% — downtrend NOT repaired
Ship struck Aug 4 Minoan Pioneer hit off Oman, on fire, no claim
EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted — the physical gate
SMM ex-China 2026 capacity raised 67.8% to 2.32 Mt from 1.38 Mt

一 · 行情表现

确认:8月4日两个盘面同向上行,且伦铝打出六周新高

  • 沪铝 AL2609(8月4日):开 23,620,盘中 23,535–23,755,收 23,730,+145(+0.61%)。
  • 伦铝 3M(8月4日,SMM 口径):结算 3,231.00 美元,+0.12%;盘中区间 3,221.00–3,231.00 美元。
  • 冲突口径(并列,不取其一):TradingEconomics 载 8月4日伦铝 3,221.00 美元、−4.80(−0.15%),月 +3.53%、年 +25.44%;另有 3,261.70 美元一档(较 8月3日 3,225.80 美元 +1.11%),页面表述为“伦铝升破 3,260 美元,为六周最高”。本简报将 3,261.70 读作最新一档报价(8月5日电子盘),三组口径全部并列。

确认:昨日重构已被证实,且证实得干净

  • 昨日本简报由 23,730 与 +145 反推 8月3日日盘收盘价约 23,585,并明确标注为“本简报重构、非交易所印记”。 8月4日的官方口径印证了该反推:23,730 − 145 = 23,585,完全一致。
  • 相应地,AlCircle 8月3日新闻稿所载的 23,625 现已成为孤证口径。
  • 解读 这一条的方法论意义大于数值意义:在缺失结算表时,由“最新报价 + 涨跌额”反推基准是可用的,但必须标注。本简报将继续采用该规则。

确认:均线(8月4日 SMM 口径,已为最新)

  • 沪铝 AL2609:MA5 23,616.00、MA10 23,425.50、MA30 23,147.67、MA60 23,772.92。
  • 伦铝 3M:MA5 3,204.50、MA10 3,189.15、MA30 3,158.23、MA60 3,361.74。
  • 位置:两个盘面均已站上 MA5 / MA10 / MA30,但两个盘面均仍在 MA60 之下。
  • 沪铝 23,730 距 MA60(23,772.92)仅 43 元;伦铝 3,231 距 MA60(3,361.74)约 −3.9%。

解读:价位判断——这是今日最重要的技术事实

  • “六周新高”与“仍在 60 日均线之下”同时成立,而后者的信息量更大。 在中期均线未收复之前,当前行情的技术定性只能是“下降结构中的反弹”,而非“趋势反转”。
  • 沪铝的 MA60 是可在单个夜盘内被检验的位置。 23,772.92 距 8月4日收盘仅 43 元,距当日高点 23,755 仅 18 元。这意味着 8月4日的日内高点实际上已经触及该阻力带的下沿并回落——是一次未完成的测试,而非一次失败的突破。
  • 伦铝的 MA60 在 3,361.74,距现价约 4%,短期内不构成现实约束;伦铝的现实约束是 SMM 上周公布的本周区间上沿 3,250 美元——该位已被 3,261.70 越过。 越过区间上沿本身是强势信号,但同时意味着行情已运行至数据方自身预期之外,后续缺乏参照。
  • 支撑层级:沪铝近端 MA5(23,616)与 8月3日收盘 23,585 构成 31 元的窄带,其下为 8月4日低点 23,535 与整数关口 23,500;伦铝近端为 8月4日低点 3,221 与 MA5(3,204.50),再下为 3,200(前阻力位)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认:期货为 8月4日新印记;现货存在日期归属模糊

  • SMM A00 / 上海现货铝锭:23,500 元/吨,−130 ↓。口径说明:该印记被不同来源分别归为 8月3日与 8月4日,本简报不做取舍,仅确认“当前 A00 水平为 23,500”。
  • 区域基差(SMM 口径,全部对沪铝 2608 主力前月):华东贴水 20 元至平水;华中贴水 170–190 元;华南/佛山对 2608 升水 80–120 元,主流报价为 −10 至 0 元。
  • 对昨日框架的更正 昨日本简报将“A00 23,500 对 23,730 的 230 元贴水”作为需求疲弱的价格信号列出。这一表述夸大了。 该 230 元中的绝大部分是 2608 与 2609 的跨月价差,而非现货折价。 以正确的前月合约 2608 计量,华东基差为贴水 20 元至平水,属近乎中性,并未出现基差塌陷。 本简报此后统一以 2608 为基差计量基准。
  • LME 铝:3,231.00 美元(8月4日结算,+0.12%) ↑;冲突口径 3,221.00 美元(−0.15%);最新一档 3,261.70 美元,为六周最高。
  • LME 库存:271,275 吨(7月24日),1998 年 1 月有记录以来最低 ↓;注册可用 245,350 吨(2025 年 4 月以来最低)。该口径已连续第十一个交易日未更新;另有 267,800 吨口径并列。
  • 上期所铸造铝合金仓单(8月3日):17,553 吨,日减 118 吨 ↓;上海 1,506(0)、广东 1,490(−88)、江苏 3,806(0)、浙江 6,932(−30)、重庆 3,034(0)、四川 785(0)。
  • 国内铝锭社会库存:95.8 万吨,周增 5,000 吨 ↑(同比减 21,000 吨)。本轮首次累库,详见第三节。
  • ADC12:SMM 口径下跌 100 元/吨 ↓;成交描述为“低迷整理”,成本端仍有支撑但期货与原铝回落压制情绪,终端订单不足。
  • 氧化铝期货(7月31日延续):AO2609 收 2,621。8月4日无已确认新印记。
  • 氧化铝成本与区间(SMM 8月口径):行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;预期波动区间 2,600–2,650 元/吨,8 月可能因基本面宽松短暂跌破 2,600,但矿端成本制约使下方空间有限。
  • 铝土矿:70–75 美元/吨(2025 年 12 月为 60 美元出头);港口铝土矿库存累积至 94 万吨;华南未来数月规划新增产能近 300 万吨;广西检修产线陆续复产。
  • 全国氧化铝库存:702.8 万吨,周增 2.4 万吨 ↑。
  • 原油:Brent 79.14 美元(8月5日),−0.22(−0.28%) ↓;周三盘中跌破 79 美元,连跌第三个交易日,周内跌幅超过 10%;月 +9.93%、年 +18.31%;三季度预测 90.26 美元。
  • 美元指数:99.8424(8月5日),−0.02% ↓(页面值 99.865、日变动 −0.0017);近一月 −0.98%、近十二月 +1.72%。

解读

  • 本节最值得注意的不是任何单一价格,而是原油与铝在三个交易日内的累计分歧幅度。 Brent 周内跌超 10%,伦铝同期由 3,194.65 的低点区域升至 3,261.70 的六周高点。 这不是波动率差异,而是两个市场对同一事件给出了相反的定价结论。
  • 可辩护的机制在于:原油定价的是“流量恢复的期权”,铝定价的是“海湾产能的物理回归”。 前者只需要航道开放,后者需要电解槽重启、保险回落与运输重建——三者的时间尺度完全不同。
  • 但需要同时承认的是仓位含义:铝所定价的稀缺已经获得了一个日期。 两位美国内阁部长现在给出的时间指引是“天”,不是“周”。 当协议落地时,铝可回吐的幅度大于原油——因为原油已经吐过,而铝没有 (解读)。
  • 氧化铝一侧的信息是单向的:成本 2,530、区间 2,600–2,650、8 月可能破 2,600、华南新增近 300 万吨、港口矿库累至 94 万吨。 氧化铝的成本地板正在下移,这对铝价的成本支撑构成侵蚀而非托举。

三 · 库存

确认:本轮去库结束——这是今日最重要的基本面变化

  • SMM 国内铝锭社会库存:95.8 万吨,周增 5,000 吨 ↑;同比减少 21,000 吨。
  • 对照路径:5 月初高点 146.5 万吨 → 7月23日 100.6 万吨 → 7月30日 95.3 万吨 → 本期 95.8 万吨。 本期为该路径上的首次转向。
  • 前值参照:上周出库量 12.77 万吨,前一周 13.74 万吨,6 月峰值 17 万吨——已连续两周下滑且降幅扩大。
  • LME:271,275 吨(7月24日),注册可用 245,350 吨。第十一个交易日未更新。另一口径 267,800 吨。
  • 上期所铸造铝合金仓单(8月3日):17,553 吨,日减 118 吨,仅广东(−88)与浙江(−30)减少。
  • 全国氧化铝库存:702.8 万吨,周增 2.4 万吨;港口铝土矿 94 万吨。

解读:这不是一次意外,而是一次到期

  • SMM 在 7月31日的周报中已将本轮去库定性为“上游没货”的被动形态,并明确警告“一旦到货恢复,去库斜率可能迅速走平”。 本期 +5,000 吨的累库,是该警告的兑现,不是新信息。
  • 本简报此前连续四周将“去库地板”列为多头支柱之一。该支柱今日应当被移出多头栏,并计入利空栏。 这一调整不是措辞调整,而是结构调整。
  • 需要严格区分的是幅度与性质:+5,000 吨在 95.8 万吨的基数上不足 0.53%,幅度微小;但方向的改变比幅度重要,因为它终止了一个已运行三个月的单向趋势。 在趋势终止的当期,幅度从来不重要。
  • 境内与境外的分工因此更加清晰:境外库存(LME 27.1 万吨、不足全球一日消费)仍是价格的支撑来源;境内库存已由支撑转为压力。 这与第一、第二节“伦铝强于沪铝、盘面强于现货”的结构完全自洽。
  • 同比仍减 21,000 吨这一条应当保留,但不宜过度解读:它说明当前绝对水平仍低于去年同期,却不改变边际方向已经翻转的事实 (解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

确认:8月4–5日地缘——语气由“否认”转为“天数”

  • 美国财长贝森特(Scott Bessent)对 CNBC 表示:“我们有可能在今天或明天达成开放海峡的协议。” 另有表述为“两天之内”。
  • 国务卿鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)表示伊朗与阿曼的磋商“已取得进展”,但“尚未最终敲定”,预计协议“很快”达成。
  • 美联社援引两名地区官员披露的条款:船舶经伊朗控制的航路驶入波斯湾,经阿曼控制的航路驶出;就提供安全保障与保护海洋环境收取服务费。
  • 前提条件:该安排似以美国解除对伊朗港口的封锁为前提;特朗普政府此前已排除任何将海峡控制权交予伊朗的协议。
  • 伊朗国家电视台:中间走廊将“为过峡提供安全通行,一旦投入运行,将关闭南线与北线两条航路”。
  • 费用争议:伊朗提出的过峡通行费遭海湾国家与美国拒绝;阿曼的替代方案为自愿性导航服务费,参照马六甲海峡模式。
  • 斡旋结构:卡塔尔、巴基斯坦与阿曼协调在华盛顿与德黑兰之间传递文本;卡塔尔埃米尔已直接与特朗普接触。

确认:与上述同时发生的反向证据

  • 利比里亚籍散货船“Minoan Pioneer”于 8月4日(周二)在阿曼近海遭弹体击中并起火,无人立即认领责任。
  • 自 7 月中旬敌对行动重启以来,部分日子过峡船舶不足 10 艘。
  • 拟议的中间走廊据报已被布雷,须先行扫雷。
  • 战前该海峡承担全球约五分之一的石油与天然气运输;冲突始于 2026 年 2 月。

确认:美元、利率与本周数据日程

  • 美元指数 99.8424(8月5日),日内 −0.02%;近一月 −0.98%、近十二月 +1.72%。 较 8月4日的 99.9580 小幅回落,未能站上 100。
  • 联邦基金利率 3.63%;下次 FOMC 为 9月16日。
  • 9 月定价的方向冲突仍未收敛:CME FedWatch(7月28日口径)显示降息 25 个基点概率 54.4%,与此前并列的加息口径(76.9%、63%、约 55%)方向相反。 本文继续不采用任何利率数值。
  • 本周日程:7 月非农就业报告于 8月7日(周五)公布,市场预期新增约 8.0–8.8 万人(前值 5.7 万),失业率 4.2%–4.3%;6 月贸易帐预期约 −730 亿美元(前值 −776 亿);6 月工厂订单预期 +0.2%–0.3%。

解读:方向判定

  • 地缘:由昨日的“未证实声明”升级为“进行中的具体谈判”,方向明确利空,且这是本轮以来该变量第一次具备可验证的条款结构。 “驶入走伊朗线、驶出走阿曼线 + 服务费 + 美国解除港口封锁”是一份可执行文本的骨架,而非一句表态。 但同一天有船被击中、走廊仍被布雷、日过峡船舶不足 10 艘——因此判定为“利空信号明确、利空落地未至”。
  • 原油:强利空,且已被市场充分表达。 Brent 三日连跌、周内跌超 10%、跌破 79 美元,是对上述条款最直接的定价。
  • 美元:中性偏多(对铝)。 99.8424 未能站稳 100,较前日小幅回落,估值端压力略有缓解;但方向尚未确立。
  • 美国数据:待定,且风险集中在周五。 非农预期由 5.7 万回升至 8.0–8.8 万,若显著超预期将强化“不降息”定价并利好美元;若再度低于 6 万,则 9 月降息一侧的口径将获得支持。
  • 中国数据:延续利空。 7 月官方与财新制造业 PMI 均为 49.2,双口径收缩确认,该判定自昨日起未变。
  • 净判定:宏观组合已由昨日的“分化”转为“方向偏空但落地未至”。 地缘与原油两项同向指空,美元一项略偏多,美国数据待定。 今日宏观栏的最大变化是:利空第一次有了具体的时间指引。

五 · 基本面

确认:境外供应——增量估计被大幅上修

  • SMM 将 2026 年中国以外“计划投产运行产能”估计上修 67.8%,由 138 万吨升至 232 万吨。
  • 印尼:2026 年电解铝运行产能预计约 251 万吨,2025 年约 87 万吨;南山印尼一期 40 万吨预计 2026 年投产(最终规划 100 万吨);PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry 50 万吨产线预计 2026 年 10 月达产。
  • 印度:Balco 扩建产能 8 月继续爬产。
  • 其他:斯洛伐克 Slovalco 2026 年四季度重启;密苏里冶炼厂年底前重启;美铝因澳大利亚精炼厂问题下调产量指引。
  • 中东:EGA Al Taweelah 截至 7月2日已完成全部电解槽的阳极拆除、约 90% 的槽体清理、逾 20% 槽内凝固铝清除,1,262 槽中已重启 89 槽。
  • 7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%,日均产量环比 +1.6%(中东与冰岛复产、印尼与越南爬产驱动)。
  • SMM 提示:中东与印尼部分项目的建设进度不及预期。

确认:国内需求——开工率延续下行

  • 国内铝下游龙头加工企业开工率 61.1%,周环比 −0.2 个百分点(7月25日当周口径)。
  • 分板块:铝型材 52.9%(−0.4)、原生合金 59.0%(−0.6)、再生铝 50.8%(−0.4,近年低位)、线缆 63.6%(持平)、板带 69.4%(持平)、铝箔 70.9%(持平)。
  • 支撑项:6 月板带出口同比 +44%,铝箔出口同比 +23.8%;电池箔与储能订单对部分细分品种形成边际支撑。
  • 拖累项:原生合金订单释放不足;建筑型材受地产疲弱拖累;再生铝受废料紧张与发票不足双重制约,SMM 提示若需求持续偏弱仍有下行空间。
  • 光伏:组件排产由 7 月约 38.5 GW 升至 8 月 39.3 GW;光伏边框企业开工率预计维持稳定,龙头企业凭长单维持高开工。

确认:氧化铝——过剩逻辑与成本支撑的拉锯

  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;SMM 预期波动区间 2,600–2,650 元/吨。
  • 8 月可能因基本面宽松短暂跌破 2,600,但矿端成本制约使下方空间有限;出口机会可提供短期反弹,不足以扭转趋势。
  • 华南未来数月规划新增产能近 300 万吨;广西检修产线陆续复产;港口铝土矿库存累至 94 万吨;铝土矿 70–75 美元/吨。

解读

  • 供应侧的两条线现在指向同一个方向。 境外:SMM 将 2026 年增量估计上修 67.8% 至 232 万吨,这是一个幅度极大的上修,且其构成(印尼 + 印度 + 斯洛伐克 + 密苏里)与霍尔木兹无关——即使海峡永不重开,这部分产能仍会到来。 中东:EGA 89/1,262 槽的进度说明海湾回归是慢变量,但它是“慢”,不是“不会”。
  • 需求侧没有任何一项在改善。 开工率 61.1% 且环比下降,型材 52.9%,再生铝 50.8% 为近年低位;唯一的增量来自出口(板带 +44%、铝箔 +23.8%)与光伏(38.5 → 39.3 GW),而这两项都属于结构性亮点而非总量改善。
  • 氧化铝的方向是单边的:成本下移 + 新增产能 + 矿库累积。 这意味着电解铝的成本支撑线正在下移,当铝价的地缘溢价消退时,下方缺乏成本托举 (解读)。
  • 本节结论:基本面三项——境外供应、境内需求、氧化铝成本——今日全部指向利空。 支撑铝价的唯一变量仍是境外可交割库存的极端稀缺,以及海峡尚未实际重开这一时间差。

六 · 原铝现货市场

确认:8月3日 SMM 华南日评(最新可得区域现货叙述)

  • 成交价:对沪铝 2608 合约升水 80–120 元/吨;主流报价为贴水 10 元至平水。
  • 在三大消费地中,仅佛山仍处于去库周期。
  • 持货商在低位惜售,部分因资金需求与看空情绪小幅让价出货;下游在低位按需买入、未见放量;贸易商按订单节奏采购低价货源。
  • SMM 定性:“供需两端动能均偏弱,盘中交投清淡。”

确认:区域基差结构(SMM 口径,对沪铝 2608)

  • 华东:贴水 20 元至平水。
  • 华中:贴水 170–190 元。
  • 华南/佛山:升水 80–120 元。

延续:情绪指数(7月30日 SMM 口径,已滞后)

  • 华东:出货意愿指数 3.13(日环比 −0.03),采购意愿指数 2.9(日环比 −0.1)。
  • 华中:出货意愿指数 3.18(日环比 +0.06),采购意愿指数 2.8(日环比 −0.02)。
  • 同期 SMM 记录:铝价上行显著抑制市场采购意愿;持货商报价坚挺而下游接货意愿有限;华中因供应充足、持货商挺价而交投清淡。

解读

  • 区域基差结构自身就是一份需求地图:华南升水 80–120、华东贴水 20 至平水、华中贴水 170–190,梯度清晰且与各地开工强度一致。 华中的 170–190 元贴水是全国最弱读数,与其“供应充足 + 交投清淡”的描述互相印证。
  • 佛山是三大消费地中唯一仍在去库的地区,这一条已连续两周成立。 在全国库存转为累积的当期,佛山的逆势去库是本节唯一的正面信号,但其规模不足以改变总量方向。
  • “持货商低位惜售、下游低位按需、供需两端动能均偏弱”是典型的僵持格局,而非底部特征。 僵持格局下,价格方向通常由盘面决定而非现货决定——这与 8月4日盘面涨 145 而现货未同步跟涨的表现一致 (解读)。
  • 情绪指数已滞后,其绝对值不宜直接引用;但“采购意愿双区域同步下降”的方向与当前基差结构一致,可作为方向性佐证。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(6 项)

  • 境外可交割库存极端稀缺:LME 271,275 吨为 1998 年 1 月有记录以来最低,不足全球一日消费;注册可用 245,350 吨为 2025 年 4 月以来最低,且报道称余量绝大部分为俄铝。
  • 海峡尚未实际重开:8月4日“Minoan Pioneer”轮在阿曼近海遭击中起火;部分日子过峡船舶不足 10 艘;中间走廊据报仍被布雷。
  • 海湾产能回归是慢变量:EGA Al Taweelah 1,262 槽中仅重启 89 槽(7月2日口径);战争险保费仍处 3%–10% 的船体价值区间。
  • 7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%,总量仍处收缩状态。
  • 技术面强势:伦铝已越过 SMM 本周区间上沿 3,250 美元并打出 3,261.70 的六周新高;两个盘面均站上 MA5 / MA10 / MA30。
  • 光伏与出口的结构性支撑:组件排产 8 月升至 39.3 GW;6 月板带出口 +44%、铝箔出口 +23.8%。

利空因素(9 项)

  • 国内去库结束:社会库存转为 95.8 万吨、周增 5,000 吨,为 5 月高点以来首次累库。
  • 协议时间指引由“周”缩短至“天”:贝森特称“今天或明天”有可能达成,鲁比奥称“已有进展”,条款结构已具体披露。
  • 原油三日连跌、周内跌超 10% 至 79.14 美元——市场已在为海峡重开定价。
  • 境外新增产能估计被大幅上修:SMM 将 2026 年中国以外计划投产运行产能上修 67.8% 至 232 万吨;印尼由约 87 万吨升至约 251 万吨。
  • 7 月中国以外日均产量环比 +1.6%,复产已进入可测量阶段。
  • 国内需求全面偏弱:下游开工率 61.1% 且环比下降;型材 52.9%;再生铝 50.8% 为近年低位。
  • 中国制造业双口径收缩:统计局与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。
  • 氧化铝成本地板下移:完全成本约 2,530,预期区间 2,600–2,650,8 月可能跌破 2,600;华南新增近 300 万吨;港口矿库累至 94 万吨。
  • 两个盘面均仍在 MA60 之下(沪铝 23,772.92、伦铝 3,361.74),中期下降结构尚未修复。

八 · 一句话观点

支撑本轮上行的两大支柱——国内去库与海峡封锁——在同一个二十四小时内同时出现裂口:SMM 社会库存转为 95.8 万吨、周增 5,000 吨,为 5 月 146.5 万吨高点以来的首次累库,恰是 SMM 自己在将其定性为“上游没货”的被动去库时所预警的结果;而美国财长贝森特对 CNBC 表示“今天或明天就有可能达成开放海峡的协议”,国务卿鲁比奥称已有进展但“尚未最终敲定”,美联社披露的条款为“经伊朗控制航路驶入、经阿曼控制航路驶出、收取安全与环保服务费、以美国解除对伊港口封锁为前提”;原油信了——Brent 连跌第三个交易日至 79.14 美元、周内跌幅超过 10%;而铝走了反方向,沪铝 AL2609 收 23,730、+145,伦铝结算 3,231.00 美元后进一步打出 3,261.70 美元的六周新高,脱钩至此已延续三个交易日并经受住了它所能遇到的最强利空;金属一侧的物理依据依然成立且具体——8月4日“Minoan Pioneer”轮在阿曼近海遭击中起火、部分日子过峡船舶不足 10 艘、中间走廊仍被布雷、EGA 1,262 槽中仅重启 89 槽,一纸航路协议无法重启电解槽,也无法让 3%–10% 的战争险保费在一场新闻发布会后回落;但对仓位的诚实判断是,铝所定价的稀缺已经获得了一个日期,而当协议落地时它可回吐的幅度大于原油——因为原油已经吐过而铝没有;与此同时国内缓冲已经消失:库存转为累积、下游开工率 61.1% 且环比下降、型材 52.9%、再生铝 50.8% 为近年低位、统计局与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 双双 49.2、SMM 又将 2026 年中国以外计划投产产能上修 67.8% 至 232 万吨;因此当前结构应读作:一个建立在“时间差”而非“基本面”之上的高位,其技术定性由一条尚未被跨越的线给出——两个盘面在打出六周新高的同时,均仍处于 60 日均线之下(沪铝 23,730 对 23,772.92,仅差 43 元;伦铝 3,231 对 3,361.74),未收复中期均线之前,这仍是下降结构中的反弹,而沪铝的那 43 元今夜即可被检验。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  1. 沪铝 MA60(23,772.92)的首次正面测试——本清单首要项: 8月4日最高 23,755,距该位仅 18 元,收盘 23,730,距该位 43 元。 该位是本轮反弹中第一个可在单夜内被跨越或被确认的中期阻力。 放量收于 23,772.92 之上,则中期下降结构进入修复,上方看 24,150(SMM 区间上沿);再度受阻回落,则 8月4日的强势应读作对地缘时间差的短期定价。
  2. 协议是否在“今天或明天”落地——本清单最大的单一风险项: 贝森特已给出“今天或明天”“两天之内”的时间指引,鲁比奥称“尚未最终敲定”。 关注三项可证伪的节点:是否出现协议文本或联合声明、美国是否宣布解除对伊朗港口的封锁(这是伊方前提条件)、费用条款采用伊朗的“通行费”还是阿曼的“自愿服务费”。 文本落地是本轮以来铝价面临的最大单一利空事件;文本再度推迟则时间差继续为价格提供支撑。
  3. 伦铝 3,250–3,261.70 区间的持有能力: 3,250 是 SMM 本周区间上沿,已被越过;3,261.70 为六周高点。 关注是否守住 3,250 上方——守住则行情已运行至数据方预期之外、缺乏上方参照,需以 MA60(3,361.74)为下一目标;失守则回落至 3,221(8月4日低点)与 MA5(3,204.50),再下为 3,200 前阻力位。
  4. 物理证据而非声明: 今夜仍只需盯三项——扫雷作业是否启动或宣布、战争险保费报价是否自 3%–10% 区间回落、开启应答器的过峡船舶数量是否自“不足 10 艘”回升。 任何一项改善都是真实的供应回归信号;仅有文本而无这三项,则铝的稀缺定价在物理上仍然成立。
  5. 国内库存的第二个印记: 本期 +5,000 吨是方向转折,但单期数据不构成趋势。 关注下一个印记是继续累积还是回落,以及周度出库量能否止住连续两周的下滑(12.77 万吨、前一周 13.74 万吨)。 出库量止跌比库存回落更重要——前者是需求信号,后者当前是供应信号。
  6. 现货基差能否跟涨(以 2608 为基准): 华东贴水 20 元至平水、华中贴水 170–190 元、华南升水 80–120 元。 关注 8月5日盘面若续涨,华东基差是走强还是被动扩大贴水。 基差跟随走强意味着有真实接货;基差被动走弱则确认本轮上行为盘面单边驱动,现货未予认可。
  7. 美元与周五非农的前置定价: 美元指数 99.8424 未能站上 100。 关注 8月7日非农(预期 +8.0–8.8 万,前值 5.7 万,失业率 4.2%–4.3%)前的美元与利率定价;若数据前美元重回 100 上方,将从估值端压制伦铝的六周高点;同时注意 9 月联储定价的方向冲突(降息 54.4% 对加息 76.9%/63%/55%)是否开始收敛。

1 · Market Performance

Confirmed: both boards rose on August 4, and LME printed a six-week high

  • SHFE AL2609 (August 4): open 23,620, range 23,535–23,755, close 23,730, +145 (+0.61%).
  • LME 3M (August 4, SMM caliber): settled $3,231.00, +0.12%; intraday range $3,221.00–3,231.00.
  • Conflicting calibers, carried in parallel with none adopted: TradingEconomics shows August 4 at $3,221.00, −4.80 (−0.15%), month +3.53%, year +25.44%; a further print of $3,261.70 (+1.11% against August 3’s $3,225.80) is described as “the highest level in six weeks,” with the page narrative reading “aluminum futures rose above $3,260 per tonne, the highest level in six weeks.” This brief reads $3,261.70 as the most recent tick (August 5 electronic).

Confirmed: yesterday’s reconstruction is now verified, and cleanly

  • Yesterday this brief derived an August 3 day-session close of about 23,585 from 23,730 and +145, and explicitly labeled it as this brief’s reconstruction rather than an exchange print. The August 4 official caliber confirms it exactly: 23,730 − 145 = 23,585.
  • Accordingly, AlCircle’s August 3 figure of 23,625 is now the isolated caliber.
  • Interpretation The methodological point outweighs the numerical one: in the absence of a settlement sheet, back-solving a base from “latest quote plus change” is usable, but must be labeled. This brief will continue to apply that rule.

Confirmed: moving averages (August 4 SMM caliber, now current)

  • SHFE AL2609: MA5 23,616.00, MA10 23,425.50, MA30 23,147.67, MA60 23,772.92.
  • LME 3M: MA5 $3,204.50, MA10 $3,189.15, MA30 $3,158.23, MA60 $3,361.74.
  • Position: both boards are above MA5, MA10 and MA30, and both boards remain BELOW MA60.
  • SHFE at 23,730 sits 43 yuan under MA60 (23,772.92); LME at $3,231 sits about 3.9% under MA60 ($3,361.74).

Interpretation: where price sits — the most important technical fact today

  • “Six-week high” and “still below the 60-day” are both true, and the second carries more information. Until the medium-term average is reclaimed, the technical character of this move is a rebound inside a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
  • SHFE’s MA60 is a level testable within a single night session. 23,772.92 sits 43 yuan above the August 4 close and just 18 yuan above the August 4 high of 23,755. That means the intraday high already reached the lower edge of that resistance band and backed off — an unfinished test, not a failed breakout.
  • LME’s MA60 at $3,361.74 is roughly 4% away and is not a live constraint; LME’s live constraint was SMM’s published week ceiling of $3,250, and $3,261.70 has cleared it. Clearing the range top is a strength signal, but it also means price has moved beyond the data provider’s own expectation, leaving no reference above.
  • Support ladder: SHFE’s near band is MA5 (23,616) and the August 3 close (23,585), a 31-yuan window, then the August 4 low of 23,535 and the round 23,500; LME’s near levels are the August 4 low of $3,221 and MA5 ($3,204.50), then $3,200, the former cap.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Confirmed: futures are fresh August 4 prints; the spot print has a date-attribution ambiguity

  • SMM A00 / Shanghai spot ingot: 23,500 yuan/mt, −130 ↓. Caliber note: sources attribute this print to both August 3 and August 4; this brief does not adjudicate and confirms only that the current A00 level is 23,500.
  • Regional basis (SMM caliber, all against the SHFE 2608 front month): East China discount of 20 to parity; Central China discount of 170–190; South China/Foshan premium of 80–120 with mainstream quotes at −10 to 0.
  • Correction to yesterday’s framing Yesterday this brief listed the 230-yuan gap between A00 at 23,500 and AL2609 at 23,730 as a price signal of weak demand. That overstated it. Most of that 230 is the 2608/2609 calendar spread, not a physical discount. Measured against the correct front month, the East China basis is a discount of 20 to parity — near-neutral, with no basis collapse. This brief will measure basis against 2608 from here.
  • LME aluminum: $3,231.00 (August 4 settlement, +0.12%) ↑; conflicting caliber $3,221.00 (−0.15%); latest tick $3,261.70, a six-week high.
  • LME stocks: 271,275 mt (July 24), lowest since records began in January 1998 ↓; on-warrant 245,350 mt (lowest since April 2025). An eleventh consecutive session without an update; a 267,800 mt alternative caliber is carried alongside.
  • SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants (August 3): 17,553 mt, −118 mt ↓ — Shanghai 1,506 (0), Guangdong 1,490 (−88), Jiangsu 3,806 (0), Zhejiang 6,932 (−30), Chongqing 3,034 (0), Sichuan 785 (0).
  • China aluminum ingot social inventory: 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w ↑ (−21,000 mt y/y). The first build of the cycle — see Section 3.
  • ADC12: down 100 yuan/mt on the SMM caliber ↓; quotes described as consolidating on a subdued note, with cost still providing some support but the pullback in futures and primary aluminum weighing on sentiment and end-use orders insufficient.
  • Alumina futures (July 31, carried): AO2609 close 2,621. No confirmed August 4 print.
  • Alumina cost and band (SMM August caliber): industry average full cost about 2,530 yuan/mt; expected band 2,600–2,650, with a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August on loose fundamentals, though ore-side cost limits the downside.
  • Bauxite: $70–75/mt against just over $60/mt in December 2025; port bauxite inventory accumulated to 940,000 mt; nearly 3 Mt of new capacity planned in South China in coming months; Guangxi lines restarting steadily after maintenance.
  • National alumina inventory: 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w ↑.
  • Crude: Brent $79.14 (August 5), −0.22 (−0.28%) ↓; traded below $79 intraday Wednesday, a third consecutive down session, with the weekly loss more than 10%; month +9.93%, year +18.31%; Q3 forecast $90.26.
  • US dollar index: 99.8424 (August 5), −0.02% ↓ (page value 99.865, daily change −0.0017); past month −0.98%, past 12 months +1.72%.

Interpretation

  • The notable thing in this section is not any single price but the cumulative divergence between crude and aluminum over three sessions. Brent is down more than 10% on the week; LME over the same stretch has moved from the $3,194.65 low area to a six-week high of $3,261.70. That is not a volatility difference — it is two markets reaching opposite pricing conclusions on the same event.
  • The defensible mechanism: crude prices the option on flow restarting, aluminum prices the physical return of Gulf capacity. The first needs only an open lane; the second needs potlines restarted, insurance repriced and logistics rebuilt — three entirely different time scales.
  • What must be conceded alongside it is the position implication: the scarcity aluminum is pricing has acquired a date. Two US cabinet secretaries are now guiding in days, not weeks. When the deal lands, aluminum has more to give back than crude — because crude has already given it back and aluminum has not (interpretation).
  • The alumina side is one-directional: cost 2,530, band 2,600–2,650, a possible break below 2,600 in August, nearly 3 Mt of new South China capacity, port ore stocks at 940 kt. Alumina’s cost floor is moving down, which erodes rather than underpins aluminum’s cost support.

3 · Inventory

Confirmed: the destocking cycle has ended — the most important fundamental change today

  • SMM China aluminum ingot social inventory: 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt week-on-week ↑; −21,000 mt year-on-year.
  • Path for comparison: 1.465 Mt early-May peak → 1.006 Mt on July 23 → 953 kt on July 30 → 958 kt this print. This is the first turn on that path.
  • Prior reference: weekly withdrawals 127,700 mt last week against 137,400 mt the week before and a 170,000 mt June peak — two consecutive declines, with the drop widening.
  • LME: 271,275 mt (July 24), on-warrant 245,350 mt. Eleventh session without an update. Alternative caliber 267,800 mt.
  • SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants (August 3): 17,553 mt, −118 mt, with only Guangdong (−88) and Zhejiang (−30) falling.
  • National alumina inventory: 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w; port bauxite 940,000 mt.

Interpretation: this is not a surprise, it is a maturity

  • SMM’s July 31 weekly report had already characterized this destock as passive, “upstream lacking volume,” and warned explicitly that “once shipments recover, the destocking slope may quickly flatten.” This +5,000 mt build is that warning cashing, not new information.
  • This brief has listed the destocking floor as a bull pillar for four consecutive weeks. That pillar moves out of the bullish column today and into the bearish one. That is a structural revision, not a wording change.
  • Magnitude and character must be kept separate: +5,000 mt on a 958,000 mt base is under 0.53%, a trivial amount; but the change in direction matters more than the size, because it terminates a three-month one-way trend. In the period a trend terminates, magnitude is never the point.
  • The division of labor between domestic and overseas inventory is therefore sharper: overseas stocks (LME at 271 kt, under one day of global consumption) remain the source of price support; domestic stocks have moved from support to pressure. That is fully consistent with the Section 1 and 2 structure of LME stronger than SHFE and the board stronger than physical.
  • The −21,000 mt year-on-year figure should be retained but not over-read: it says the absolute level is still below the year-ago level, without changing the fact that the marginal direction has flipped (interpretation).

4 · Macro

Confirmed: August 4–5 geopolitics — the register changed from denial to days

  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC: “there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait,” and separately that a deal could come “within two days.”
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been “progress made” in the Iran–Oman discussions “but not finality yet,” with resolution expected “very shortly.”
  • Terms reported by AP, citing two regional officials: ships ENTER the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and EXIT through an Oman-controlled route, with service fees charged for providing security and preserving the maritime environment.
  • Precondition: the arrangement appears contingent on the United States lifting its blockade of Iran’s ports; the Trump administration has previously ruled out any deal granting Iran control of the strait.
  • Iranian state television: the middle corridor would “provide safe traffic through the strait and, once operational, would shut down both the southern and northern routes.”
  • Fee dispute: Iran proposed shipping tolls, rejected by Gulf states and the US; an Omani counter-proposal suggests voluntary navigation-service fees on the Strait of Malacca model.
  • Mediation structure: Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are coordinating drafts between Washington and Tehran, and Qatar’s emir has engaged directly with Trump.

Confirmed: the counter-evidence that landed on the same days

  • The Liberia-flagged Minoan Pioneer was struck by a projectile near Oman’s coast on Tuesday August 4, causing a fire, with no immediate claim of responsibility.
  • Fewer than ten vessels have crossed on some days since hostilities resumed in mid-July.
  • The proposed middle corridor is reportedly mined and would require clearing.
  • Before the war the strait handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas transport; the conflict began in February 2026.

Confirmed: dollar, rates and this week’s calendar

  • US dollar index 99.8424 (August 5), −0.02% on the session; past month −0.98%, past 12 months +1.72%. A small retreat from 99.9580 on August 4, with 100 not reclaimed.
  • Fed funds rate 3.63%; next FOMC September 16.
  • The September direction conflict remains unresolved: a July 28 CME FedWatch caliber shows a 54.4% probability of a 25bp CUT, against previously carried hike calibers of 76.9%, 63% and about 55%. No rate figure is adopted here.
  • This week: July nonfarm payrolls land Friday August 7, consensus roughly +80,000 to +88,000 after a soft 57,000, unemployment 4.2% to 4.3%; June trade balance consensus about −$73bn after −$77.6bn; June factory orders consensus +0.2% to +0.3%.

Interpretation: direction

  • Geopolitics: upgraded from yesterday’s “unverified statement” to “concrete negotiation in progress,” clearly bearish, and for the first time in this cycle the variable has a verifiable term structure. “Enter via Iran, exit via Oman, service fees, contingent on the US lifting the port blockade” is the skeleton of an executable text, not a talking point. But a ship was struck the same day, the corridor is still mined and daily transits are under ten — so the read is “the bearish signal is clear, the bearish event has not landed.”
  • Crude: strongly bearish, and already fully expressed. Three consecutive down sessions, more than 10% on the week, below $79 — that is the most direct pricing of those terms available.
  • Dollar: mildly bullish for aluminum. 99.8424 failed to hold 100 and eased from the prior session, taking a little valuation pressure off; direction is not yet established.
  • US data: pending, with the risk concentrated on Friday. Payrolls are expected to recover from 57,000 to 80,000–88,000; a large upside surprise reinforces the no-cut pricing and the dollar, while another sub-60,000 print supports the September cut caliber.
  • China data: unchanged and bearish. Both the NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs printed 49.2, a two-caliber confirmation of contraction, unchanged from yesterday.
  • Net: the macro mix has moved from yesterday’s “divergence” to “bearish direction, not yet landed.” Geopolitics and crude both point down, the dollar is marginally supportive, US data is pending. The biggest change in this section is that the bearish case now has a time guide attached to it.

5 · Fundamentals

Confirmed: overseas supply — the increment estimate has been raised sharply

  • SMM has raised its 2026 estimate of planned commissioned operating capacity outside China by 67.8%, to 2.32 Mt from 1.38 Mt.
  • Indonesia: primary aluminum operating capacity expected at about 2.51 Mt in 2026 against roughly 870,000 mt in 2025; Nanshan Indonesia Phase I at 400,000 mt expected online in 2026 (eventually 1 Mt); PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry’s 500,000 mt line expected at full production in October 2026.
  • India: Balco’s expanded capacity continues ramping through August.
  • Others: Slovalco restarts in Q4 2026; a Missouri smelter by year-end; Alcoa has cut production guidance after Australian refinery issues.
  • Middle East: EGA’s Al Taweelah had, as of July 2, completed anode removal on all pots, roughly 90% of pot cleaning and cleared solidified aluminum from over 20% of pots, with 89 of 1,262 pots restarted.
  • July ex-China output −6.7% y/y, with daily average output +1.6% m/m, driven by Middle East and Iceland resumptions plus Indonesian and Vietnamese ramp-ups.
  • SMM caveat: construction progress on some Middle East and Indonesia projects has fallen short of expectations.

Confirmed: domestic demand — operating rates still sliding

  • Leading Chinese downstream aluminum processors’ operating rate 61.1%, −0.2 pt w/w (week of July 25).
  • By sub-sector: aluminum extrusion 52.9% (−0.4), primary aluminum alloy 59.0% (−0.6), secondary aluminum 50.8% (−0.4, a multi-year low), wire and cable 63.6% (flat), plate/sheet/strip 69.4% (flat), foil 70.9% (flat).
  • Support: June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; battery foil and energy-storage orders offer marginal support to select segments.
  • Drag: primary alloy order releases insufficient; construction extrusion dragged by sluggish real estate; secondary aluminum constrained by both tight scrap supply and insufficient tax invoices, with SMM flagging room for further decline if demand stays weak.
  • PV: module scheduled output rising from about 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; PV frame operating rates expected to hold steady, with leading firms sustaining high rates on long-term contracts.

Confirmed: alumina — surplus logic against cost support

  • Industry average full cost about 2,530 yuan/mt; SMM’s expected band 2,600–2,650 yuan/mt.
  • Prices may temporarily break below 2,600 in August on loose fundamentals, but ore-side cost limits the downside; export windows can produce short rebounds but are insufficient to reverse the trend.
  • Nearly 3 Mt of new capacity planned in South China in coming months; Guangxi lines restarting after maintenance; port bauxite inventory at 940,000 mt; bauxite $70–75/mt.

Interpretation

  • The two supply lines now point the same way. Overseas: SMM’s 67.8% upward revision to 2.32 Mt is a very large revision, and its composition — Indonesia plus India plus Slovakia plus Missouri — has nothing to do with Hormuz. That capacity arrives even if the Strait never reopens. Middle East: EGA at 89 of 1,262 pots shows the Gulf’s return is a slow variable, but slow is not never.
  • Nothing on the demand side is improving. The operating rate is 61.1% and falling, extrusion is 52.9%, secondary aluminum at 50.8% is a multi-year low; the only increments are exports (plate/sheet +44%, foil +23.8%) and PV (38.5 → 39.3 GW), and both are structural bright spots rather than aggregate improvement.
  • Alumina’s direction is one-sided: falling cost, new capacity, accumulating ore stocks. That means primary aluminum’s cost support line is moving down, so when the geopolitical premium fades there is no cost floor waiting underneath (interpretation).
  • Section conclusion: all three fundamental legs — overseas supply, domestic demand, alumina cost — point bearish today. The only variables still supporting price are the extreme scarcity of overseas deliverable stock and the time lag before the Strait actually reopens.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Confirmed: SMM South China daily review, August 3 (the latest available regional spot narrative)

  • Transactions at premiums of 80 to 120 yuan/mt over the SHFE 2608 contract; mainstream quotations at discounts of −10 to 0.
  • Among the three major consumption areas, only Foshan remained in a destocking cycle.
  • Sellers were reluctant to ship at low levels, though some offered slight discounts on cash needs and bearish sentiment; downstream buyers bought steadily at lows without volume increases; traders purchased low-priced cargo at a steady pace to fill orders.
  • SMM’s characterization: “Both supply and demand sides were weak in momentum, and intraday trading was tepid.”

Confirmed: regional basis structure (SMM caliber, against SHFE 2608)

  • East China: discount of 20 to parity.
  • Central China: discount of 170–190.
  • South China/Foshan: premium of 80–120.

Carried: sentiment indices (July 30 SMM caliber, now stale)

  • East China: shipment sentiment index 3.13 (−0.03 d/d), purchase sentiment index 2.9 (−0.1 d/d).
  • Central China: shipment sentiment index 3.18 (+0.06 d/d), purchase sentiment index 2.8 (−0.02 d/d).
  • SMM’s note from the same session: rising aluminum prices significantly dampened purchase willingness; suppliers quoted firmly while downstream processors showed minimal buying interest; Central China stayed sluggish as suppliers pushed prices with ample availability.

Interpretation

  • The regional basis structure is itself a demand map: South China at a premium of 80–120, East China at a discount of 20 to parity, Central China at a discount of 170–190 — a clean gradient consistent with regional operating strength. Central China’s 170–190 discount is the weakest print nationally and corroborates its “ample supply, tepid trading” description.
  • Foshan is the only one of the three major consumption areas still destocking, and that has held for two consecutive weeks. In the period national inventory turns to accumulation, Foshan’s counter-trend draw is the one positive signal in this section, but it is not large enough to change the aggregate direction.
  • “Sellers reluctant at lows, downstream buying only to need at lows, both sides weak in momentum” is a standoff, not a bottom. In a standoff, direction is usually set by the board rather than by physical — consistent with August 4’s 145-point board gain not being matched by spot (interpretation).
  • The sentiment indices are stale and their absolute values should not be quoted directly; but the direction — purchase willingness falling in both regions — is consistent with the current basis structure and can serve as directional corroboration.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (6)

  • Extreme scarcity of overseas deliverable stock: LME at 271,275 mt is the lowest since records began in January 1998 and less than one day of global consumption; on-warrant 245,350 mt is the lowest since April 2025, with most of the remainder reported to be Russian metal.
  • The Strait is not actually open: the Minoan Pioneer was struck and set alight off Oman on August 4; fewer than ten vessels have crossed on some days; the middle corridor is reportedly still mined.
  • The Gulf’s return is a slow variable: EGA’s Al Taweelah has restarted only 89 of 1,262 pots (July 2 caliber); war-risk insurance remains in the 3–10% of hull value band.
  • July ex-China output was −6.7% y/y, so the aggregate is still contracting.
  • Technical strength: LME has cleared SMM’s week ceiling of $3,250 and printed a six-week high at $3,261.70; both boards are above MA5, MA10 and MA30.
  • Structural support from PV and exports: module output rising to 39.3 GW in August; June plate/sheet exports +44% and foil exports +23.8%.

Bearish factors (9)

  • The domestic destock has ended: social inventory turned to 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w, the first build since the May peak.
  • The deal’s time guide has compressed from weeks to days: Bessent says “today or tomorrow” is possible, Rubio says progress has been made, and the term structure has been reported concretely.
  • Crude has fallen three straight sessions and more than 10% on the week to $79.14 — the market is already pricing the Strait reopening.
  • The ex-China increment estimate has been raised sharply: SMM lifted 2026 planned commissioned operating capacity outside China by 67.8% to 2.32 Mt; Indonesia goes from about 870 kt to about 2.51 Mt.
  • July ex-China daily average output was +1.6% m/m, so restarts have entered the measurable phase.
  • Domestic demand is weak across the board: the downstream operating rate is 61.1% and falling; extrusion 52.9%; secondary aluminum 50.8%, a multi-year low.
  • China manufacturing is contracting on two calibers: both the NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs printed 49.2.
  • Alumina’s cost floor is moving down: full cost about 2,530, expected band 2,600–2,650 with a possible break below 2,600 in August; nearly 3 Mt of new South China capacity; port ore stocks at 940 kt.
  • Both boards remain below MA60 (SHFE 23,772.92, LME $3,361.74), so the medium-term downtrend is not repaired.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The two pillars supporting this move — the domestic destock and the closed Strait — cracked within the same twenty-four hours: SMM social inventory turned to 958,000 mt on a +5,000 mt week-on-week build, the first accumulation since the 1.465 Mt May peak and precisely what SMM warned of when it called the destock passive and upstream-lacking-volume; and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC there is a chance of a deal “today or tomorrow” to open the Strait while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said progress had been made “but not finality yet,” with AP reporting the terms as ships entering the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exiting through an Oman-controlled route, service fees charged for security and marine-environment protection, and the whole arrangement contingent on the United States lifting its blockade of Iran’s ports; crude believed it — Brent fell a third consecutive session to $79.14, more than 10% on the week — while aluminum did the opposite, SHFE AL2609 closing at 23,730, +145, and LME settling at $3,231.00 before printing a six-week high of $3,261.70, so the decoupling is now three sessions old and has survived the strongest bearish headline available to it; the metal’s physical case remains intact and specific — the Minoan Pioneer was struck and set alight off Oman on August 4, fewer than ten vessels cross on some days, the middle corridor is still reportedly mined, and EGA has restarted 89 of 1,262 pots — because a route agreement does not restart a potline and does not bring war-risk insurance down from 3–10% of hull value on the strength of a press conference; but the honest read on position is that the scarcity aluminum is pricing now has a date attached, and when the deal lands aluminum has more to give back than crude did, precisely because crude has already given it back and aluminum has not; meanwhile the domestic cushion is gone — inventory building, the downstream operating rate at 61.1% and falling, extrusion at 52.9%, secondary aluminum at 50.8% and a multi-year low, NBS and Caixin July PMIs both at 49.2, and SMM raising 2026 ex-China commissioned capacity by 67.8% to 2.32 Mt; the structure therefore reads as a high built on a time lag rather than on fundamentals, and its technical character is set by one line neither board has crossed — both printed strength and both remain below their 60-day moving averages (SHFE 23,730 against 23,772.92, a gap of 43 yuan; LME $3,231 against $3,361.74) — so until the medium-term average is reclaimed this is a rebound inside a downtrend, and SHFE’s 43 yuan can be tested tonight.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  1. SHFE’s first genuine test of MA60 at 23,772.92 — the top item on this list: the August 4 high of 23,755 came within 18 yuan of it and the close sits 43 yuan below. This is the first medium-term resistance in this rebound that can be cleared or confirmed inside a single night session. A close above 23,772.92 on rising volume puts the medium-term downtrend into repair with 24,150 (SMM’s ceiling) above; another rejection means August 4’s strength should be read as short-term pricing of the geopolitical time lag.
  2. Whether the deal lands “today or tomorrow” — the single largest risk item: Bessent has guided to “today or tomorrow” and “within two days”; Rubio says “not finality yet.” Watch three falsifiable markers: whether a deal text or joint statement appears, whether the US announces the lifting of its blockade of Iran’s ports (Tehran’s stated precondition), and whether the fee clause follows Iran’s tolls or Oman’s voluntary service fees. A landed text is the largest single bearish event aluminum has faced this cycle; another delay means the time lag keeps supporting price.
  3. Whether LME holds the $3,250–3,261.70 zone: $3,250 was SMM’s week ceiling and has been cleared; $3,261.70 is the six-week high. Holding above $3,250 means price has run beyond the data provider’s own expectation with no reference above, making MA60 at $3,361.74 the next objective; losing it points back to $3,221 (the August 4 low) and MA5 ($3,204.50), then $3,200, the former cap.
  4. Physical evidence, not statements: the same three things still matter tonight — whether mine-clearing is started or announced, whether war-risk insurance quotes retreat from the 3–10% band, and whether transponder-running transits recover from “fewer than ten.” Any one improving is a real supply-return signal; a text without any of the three leaves aluminum’s scarcity pricing physically intact.
  5. The second domestic inventory print: this week’s +5,000 mt is a change in direction, but one print is not a trend. Watch whether the next print builds further or falls back, and whether weekly withdrawals stop their two-week slide (127,700 mt, prior week 137,400 mt). Withdrawals stabilizing matters more than the headline falling — the former is a demand signal, the latter is currently a supply signal.
  6. Whether the spot basis follows the board up (measured against 2608): East China at a discount of 20 to parity, Central China at 170–190 discount, South China at an 80–120 premium. If the board extends on August 5, watch whether the East China basis firms or passively widens its discount. A firming basis means real physical buying; a passively weakening basis confirms this leg as board-driven with physical withholding endorsement.
  7. The dollar and pre-positioning for Friday’s payrolls: the dollar index at 99.8424 failed to reclaim 100. Watch dollar and rate pricing into the August 7 payrolls report (consensus +80,000 to +88,000 after 57,000, unemployment 4.2–4.3%); a return above 100 before the data would pressure the quality of LME’s six-week high from the valuation side, and watch whether the September Fed direction conflict (a 54.4% cut caliber against hike calibers of 76.9%, 63% and about 55%) begins to converge.

Sources: SMM / metal.com, Aluminum inventory buildup combined with forward capacity commissioning, geopolitical premium supports aluminum price (August 4: SHFE 2609 close 23,730, +145 (+0.61%), range 23,535–23,755; MA5 23,616.00, MA10 23,425.50, MA30 23,147.67, MA60 23,772.92; LME 3M settled $3,231.00, +0.12%, range $3,221.00–3,231.00, MA5 $3,204.50, MA10 $3,189.15, MA30 $3,158.23, MA60 $3,361.74; SMM A00 23,500, −130; East China discount of 20 to parity vs SHFE 2608, Central China discount of 170–190, South China/Foshan premium of 80–120; China aluminum social inventory 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w and −21,000 mt y/y; ADC12 −100 yuan/mt; A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap spread about 2,050 yuan/mt and versus shredded aluminum about 840 yuan/mt; commentary that long-term capacity continues to come online outside China while traditional end-use demand in China remains weak in the off-season); TradingEconomics aluminum page (August 4 $3,221.00, −4.80 (−0.15%), month +3.53%, year +25.44%; narrative “aluminum futures in the UK rose above $3,260 per tonne, the highest level in six weeks, amid ongoing supply constraints and weaker production,” a further print of $3,261.70 (+1.11%), non-China output −6.7% y/y in July on reduced Middle Eastern smelter operations, China’s 45 Mt cap expected to become increasingly restrictive, LME stocks at their lowest level this century, Alcoa cutting production forecasts after Australian refinery issues, and planned restarts at Slovakia’s Slovalco in Q4 2026 and a Missouri smelter by year-end; earlier reference to a four-month low of $3,085 in July); TradingEconomics Brent crude page (August 5 $79.14, −0.22 (−0.28%); “Brent fell below $79 per barrel on Wednesday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and bringing its weekly decline to more than 10%”; month +9.93%, year +18.31%; Q3 forecast $90.26; decline attributed to diplomatic progress on the Strait including proposals circulated by Qatar); TradingEconomics US dollar page (DXY 99.865 with a daily change of −0.0017; narrative “the DXY exchange rate fell to 99.8424 on August 5, 2026, down 0.02% from the previous session”; past month −0.98%, past 12 months +1.72%); Manila Times, Iran and Oman work to reopen Strait of Hormuz (August 5: emerging agreement has ships enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Oman-controlled route; contingent on the United States lifting its blockade of Iran’s ports; Rubio says “progress made in talks between Iran and Oman, but not finality yet”; Bessent tells CNBC “there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait”; Qatar’s emir engaged with Trump; before the war, which began in February 2026, the strait handled about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas transport); The National, Strait of Hormuz’s “middle corridor”: Iran claims new route is focus of talks (August 4: Iranian state television says the corridor would “provide safe traffic through the strait and, once operational, would shut down both the southern and northern routes”; fewer than 10 vessels crossed on some days since hostilities resumed in mid-July; the Liberia-flagged Minoan Pioneer was struck by a projectile near Oman’s coast on Tuesday causing a fire with no immediate claim of responsibility; Rubio “progress made,” resolution “very shortly”; Bessent predicts a deal “within two days”; Iran maintains it is negotiating only with Oman, not the US, with Qatar, Pakistan and Oman coordinating between Washington and Tehran; Iran proposed shipping tolls, rejected by Gulf states and the US, against an Omani counter-proposal of voluntary navigation-service fees on the Strait of Malacca model; Brent fell below $80 on Tuesday, its lowest since mid-July, down more than 5%); US News / AP (August 4: Iran and Oman make progress on a deal to reopen the Strait; two regional officials describe entry via an Iranian-controlled route and exit via an Oman-controlled route with service fees for providing security and preserving the maritime environment; the Trump administration has previously ruled out any deal giving Iran control over the strait); SMM / metal.com, Some aluminum plants in the Middle East announce production resumptions, overseas daily average aluminum production up 1.6% MoM (EGA Al Taweelah as of July 2 had completed anode removal for all pots, roughly 90% of pot cleaning and cleared solidified aluminum from over 20% of pots, with 89 of 1,262 pots restarted; July ex-China output −6.7% y/y with daily average +1.6% m/m on Middle East and Iceland resumptions plus Indonesia and Vietnam ramp-ups; resumptions expected to continue in August alongside Indonesia, Vietnam and Balco ramps; SMM cautions construction progress on some Middle East and Indonesia projects has fallen short of expectations); SMM / Petromindo / mining.com (SMM lifted its 2026 estimate of planned commissioned operating capacity outside China by 67.8% to 2.32 Mt from 1.38 Mt; Indonesia primary aluminum operating capacity expected at about 2.51 Mt in 2026 against about 870,000 mt in 2025; Nanshan Indonesia Phase I 400,000 mt online in 2026, eventually 1 Mt; PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry 500,000 mt expected at full production in October 2026); AlCircle, The aluminium processing operating rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 61.1 per cent this week (week of July 25: overall 61.1%, −0.2 pt; extrusion 52.9%, −0.4; primary aluminum alloy 59.0%, −0.6; secondary aluminum 50.8%, −0.4 and a low for recent years; wire and cable 63.6% flat; plate/sheet/strip 69.4% flat; foil 70.9% flat; June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; primary alloy order releases insufficient, construction extrusion dragged by sluggish real estate, secondary aluminum constrained by tight scrap and insufficient tax invoices); SMM, PV frame demand underpins steady operations (PV module scheduled production about 38.5 GW in July rising to 39.3 GW in August; PV frame operating rates expected to hold steady; SMM A00 weekly average July 27–30 at 23,357.5, +0.8% w/w; published week ranges of SHFE 23,000–24,150 and LME $3,100–3,250); SMM, Alumina Weakness Hard to Change: Cost Support Battles Surplus, 2,600 Level Under Test (most-traded alumina contract 2,621 yuan/mt; industry average full cost about 2,530; bauxite $70–75/mt against just over $60/mt in December 2025; expected band 2,600–2,650 with a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August, though ore-side cost limits downside; nearly 3 Mt of new South China capacity planned; port inventories accumulated to 940,000 mt; Guangxi lines restarting after maintenance); AlCircle press releases of July 28 and July 30 (national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w); SHFE warrant data, August 3 (registered cast aluminum alloy warrants 17,553 mt, −118 mt: Shanghai 1,506 (0), Guangdong 1,490 (−88), Jiangsu 3,806 (0), Zhejiang 6,932 (−30), Chongqing 3,034 (0), Sichuan 785 (0)); SMM, Inventory fluctuated repeatedly, south China barely held steady (August 3: transactions at premiums of 80 to 120 yuan/mt over SHFE 2608 with mainstream quotations at −10 to 0; only Foshan among the three major consumption areas remained in a destocking cycle; sellers reluctant to ship at lows with some discounting on cash needs, downstream buying steadily at lows without volume increases, traders buying low-priced cargo to fill orders; “both supply and demand sides were weak in momentum, and intraday trading was tepid”); SMM spot midday comment of July 30 (East China shipment sentiment 3.13, −0.03; East China purchase sentiment 2.9, −0.1; Central China shipment 3.18, +0.06; Central China purchase 2.8, −0.02; East China transactions at a discount of 10 to parity vs SHFE August, Central China at a discount of 120–160; ingot inventory in major consumption areas −15,000 mt with destocking in Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi); AlCircle / Mining Weekly / discoveryalert / tradingpedia (LME stocks 271,275 mt on July 24, lowest since January 1998 and less than one day of global consumption; on-warrant 245,350 mt, lowest since April 2025; an alternative caliber of 267,800 mt described as lowest this century); centralbank.watch (Fed funds 3.63%; next FOMC September 16, 2026; page last updated August 3); CME FedWatch (July 28 caliber: 54.4% probability of a 25bp cut at the September 16 meeting); Quantum Trading / US economic calendar (July nonfarm payrolls due Friday August 7, consensus roughly +80,000 to +88,000 after 57,000, unemployment 4.2% to 4.3%; June trade balance consensus about −$73bn after −$77.6bn; June factory orders consensus +0.2% to +0.3%); carried from prior briefs and unchanged: NBS and RatingDog/Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; US July ISM manufacturing 55.6 with new orders 56.7; war-risk marine insurance at 3–10% of hull value against about 0.25% pre-February; US Midwest premium above $2,400/t; Japan CIF premium +127% q/q; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors below 50; July full cost +0.9% m/m with per-tonne margin −1,146 to 6,999 yuan; weekly withdrawals 127,700 mt against 137,400 mt the prior week. Data calibers: the August 4 LME print exists in three calibers — SMM’s $3,231.00 settlement (+0.12%), TradingEconomics’ $3,221.00 (−0.15%), and a $3,261.70 six-week-high tick that this brief reads as the most recent (August 5 electronic) — all three are carried and none is adopted as sole truth; the SMM A00 print of 23,500 (−130) is attributed by different sources to both August 3 and August 4, and the ambiguity is not resolved here — only the level is confirmed; yesterday’s reconstruction of an August 3 SHFE close of 23,585 is now confirmed correct by the August 4 caliber (23,730 − 145 = 23,585), and AlCircle’s conflicting 23,625 is now the isolated caliber; the correction in Section 2 is material: yesterday’s 230-yuan “basis discount” was predominantly the 2608/2609 calendar spread, and measured against the correct 2608 front month the East China basis is a discount of 20 to parity, so no basis collapse occurred and this brief will use 2608 as the basis reference going forward; the 958,000 mt inventory figure and its +5,000 mt weekly change are the SMM caliber as reported in the August 4 SMM brief; the exact survey date is not separately stated and is taken as the Monday August 3 weekly print; LME stocks remain the July 24 report and have not updated for an eleventh consecutive trading day; the 267,800 mt caliber is carried alongside; September Fed pricing still carries a directional conflict (cut versus hike) and no rate figure is used; downstream operating rates are the week-of-July-25 caliber and are one week stale; sentiment indices are the July 30 SMM caliber and are stale; alumina futures at 2,621 remain the July 31 caliber with no confirmed August 4 print, while the cost, band and bauxite figures are the current SMM August caliber; the mining of the middle corridor, transit counts, the Minoan Pioneer strike and war-risk insurance levels are media and industry calibers, not official confirmations; as of writing there is no signed deal text, no timetable and no verification mechanism — Bessent’s and Rubio’s remarks are recorded as public statements that have occurred, not as settled facts, and their aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation; the ex-China 2026 capacity revision, Indonesian capacity path and individual project dates are SMM and third-party estimates rather than measured output. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout.

Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice or a basis for any trading decision. Data may be delayed or contain errors; exchange and official releases prevail. Users should form their own judgment and bear their own decision risk.