Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

SHFE pierces its 60-day average to 23,840 and then closes back below it. Iran and Oman agree a 60-day fee-free Hormuz interim.沪铝一度上破 60 日均线至 23,840 后收回其下方;伊朗与阿曼达成 60 天免收费的霍尔木兹过渡安排。

Thursday, August 6, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Thursday August 6 (Asia). THE DECISIVE OBSERVATION: yesterday's two open questions were both answered within one session, and they were answered in opposite directions. QUESTION ONE — SHFE's MA60 test — ANSWERED NO, AND WORSE THAN A SIMPLE NO. CONFIRMED AUGUST 5 EXCHANGE DATA (SMM caliber via AlCircle): SHFE AL2609 open 23,800, range 23,715–23,840, close 23,745, +20 (+0.08%); moving averages MA5 23,690, MA10 23,489, MA30 23,158.50, MA60 23,759.17; MACD DIF 69.24 above DEA −28.41 with a red histogram of 195.31; stated core trading range 23,500–24,000. Price is above MA5, MA10 and MA30 and 14.17 yuan BELOW MA60. The intraday high of 23,840 was 80.83 yuan ABOVE MA60, so the line was crossed and then surrendered inside the session — a rejection, not a shortfall. Note also that MA60 itself fell from 23,772.92 to 23,759.17, a decline of 13.75 in one day, so the level is descending toward price at roughly the speed price would need to rise. Volume and open interest for August 5 are not available in the sources consulted; the last confirmed SHFE volume/OI caliber is July 30 (267,105 lots, open interest 253,776, +2,341) and is stale by four sessions. QUESTION TWO — whether the spot basis follows the board — ANSWERED YES, AND EMPHATICALLY. CONFIRMED: SMM A00 spot aluminum 23,730 yuan/mt, UP 230 yuan. This also resolves the date ambiguity carried yesterday: 23,500 was the August 4 print and 23,730 is the August 5 print (23,500 + 230 = 23,730). East China spot premium/discount versus the SHFE August (2608) contract moved to a premium of 8–40 through to a discount of 8–20; Central China transactions centered on a discount of 170–200 against the August contract. Sentiment indices, August 5 SMM caliber and now current: East China shipment sentiment 3.1 (+0.01 d/d), procurement sentiment 2.86 (+0.06 d/d); Central China shipment sentiment 2.99 (−0.2 d/d), procurement sentiment 2.94 (+0.03 d/d). Ingot inventory in the major consumption areas fell 9,500 mt day-on-day with destocking in Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi; a separate August 5 futures report records major-consumption-area inventory down 2,000 mt day-on-day for the prior session. LME AUGUST 5 EXISTS IN TWO IRRECONCILABLE CALIBERS AND BOTH ARE CARRIED: the SMM/AlCircle caliber has LME 3M open $3,215, range $3,205–3,218, close $3,211, −0.20%, with MA5 $3,208.70, MA10 $3,189.65, MA30 $3,160.98, MA60 $3,355.46, MACD DIF −14.09 above DEA −30.54, red histogram 32.90, stated core range $3,150–3,300; TradingEconomics has August 5 at $3,249.65, +28.65 (+0.89%) against a previous close of $3,221.00, month +4.45%, year +23.83%, with Q3 forecast $3,231.49 and a 12-month forecast of $3,421.47. The gap between the two calibers is $38.65, about 1.2%, and no adjudication is offered. GEOPOLITICS — THE TERMS HAVE HARDENED AND MOVED AGAINST THE METAL. CONFIRMED: Iran and Oman finalized on Wednesday August 5 the geographical coordinates of a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz; Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei says a joint statement from Tehran and Muscat is under review and in the final drafting stage. The interim terms as reported: a 60-day mechanism, inbound traffic through a northern lane in Iranian territorial waters and outbound traffic through a southern lane in Omani waters in coordination with Iran, NO tolls or fees levied during the temporary period, and the parties working to clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days, after which the median lane would carry both inbound and outbound traffic under a permanent arrangement still to be negotiated between Oman and Iran. The two states are to maintain a joint working group between their foreign ministries on the future administration of navigation, the services to be provided, and associated costs; both reaffirm sovereignty and sovereign rights over their territorial waters. The US had aimed for a Wednesday announcement of the interim agreement. President Trump said talks were 'moving along very nicely,' that 'we'll know in 48 hours,' and separately on fees that 'I'm not going to let them charge.' CNN's analysis characterizes the emerging agreement as one that is 'taking shape — but not one Trump wants.' COUNTER-EVIDENCE, ALSO CONFIRMED: Iran maintains that no new agreement by itself ensures safe passage while the United States maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports; Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed they targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened other vessels in the Red Sea; only 8 vessels transited the Strait on Monday against roughly 130 per day before the escalation; Iran has dropped its demand for full two-way control and is reported to be considering allowing European participation in mine clearing. THE PRECEDENT, CONFIRMED: on the June 17 framework, LME spot aluminum fell to $3,418/mt on June 15, the lowest since mid-March, from a year-to-date peak of $3,854/mt on June 2 — roughly 11% off the high — and that framework broke down on July 8 after Iran struck multiple commercial ships. MACRO: US dollar index 99.650, −0.0495 (−0.05%), past month −1.36%, past 12 months +1.27%, Q3 forecast 99.614; TradingEconomics narrative records the index falling below 99.8 on Wednesday, the lowest in seven weeks, attributed to coordinated US–Japan intervention targeting the yen, the Fed holding, and lower energy prices reducing inflation expectations and dimming near-term rate-increase expectations. Brent $79.29 on August 6, −0.16 (−0.20%), month +6.92%, year +19.36%, Q3 forecast $90.26; WTI reported near $75 after losing 11% over the week's first three sessions. Fed funds 3.63%; the September direction conflict is unresolved and has, if anything, widened — a CME FedWatch caliber dated August 4 shows a 61.9% probability of a 25bp HIKE at the upcoming meeting, against the July 28 caliber of 54.4% for a 25bp CUT previously carried, and additional conflicting meeting-date calibers (September 10 and September 17) appear in the sources; no rate figure and no meeting date beyond the previously carried September 16 is adopted. July nonfarm payrolls land Friday August 7, consensus roughly +80,000 to +88,000 after 57,000, unemployment 4.2–4.3%. SUPPLY: China's aluminum operating capacity reached 45.31 Mt as of June 2026, up 622,300 mt from year-end 2025; SMM records July weekly inventory drawdowns averaging 54,800 mt per week, the highest for that period in three years, and projects social inventory could fall below 800,000 mt in H2 2026; the 2026 ex-China commissioned operating capacity estimate remains SMM's revised 2.32 Mt (raised 67.8% from 1.38 Mt). CARRIED UNCHANGED FROM AUGUST 4–5 AND NOW ONE OR MORE SESSIONS STALE: China aluminum ingot social inventory 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w and −21,000 mt y/y (the first build of the cycle); LME stocks 271,275 mt on July 24 with 245,350 mt on-warrant, now a twelfth consecutive session without an update, with a 267,800 mt alternative caliber alongside; alumina AO2609 at 2,621 (July 31) with SMM industry average full cost near 2,530, expected band 2,600–2,650 and a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August; bauxite $70–75/mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 mt w/w); ADC12 −100 yuan/mt on the SMM caliber; downstream leading processors' operating rate 61.1% (−0.2 pt, week of July 25) with extrusion 52.9%, primary alloy 59.0%, secondary aluminum 50.8%, wire and cable 63.6%, plate/sheet/strip 69.4%, foil 70.9%; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2; July ex-China output −6.7% y/y with daily average +1.6% m/m; SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants 17,553 mt on August 3 (−118 mt). Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
SHFE AL2609 (Aug 5) 23,745, +20 (+0.08%), high 23,840 — MA60 crossed then surrendered
SHFE vs MA60 23,745 vs 23,759.17 — still 14.17 BELOW after touching +80.83 above
SMM A00 (Aug 5) 23,730, +230 — the physical market led for the first time
East China basis flipped to a PREMIUM of 8–40 vs 2608, from 20-discount-to-parity
Consumption-area stocks −9,500 mt d/d — Guangdong, Wuxi, Gongyi all destocking
Iran–Oman, Aug 5 route COORDINATES fixed; joint statement in final drafting
The interim terms 60 days, NO fees, mines cleared in 30 days — fee fight deferred
The June precedent LME $3,854 (Jun 2) → $3,418 (Jun 15), −11% on the last deal
That deal's fate collapsed July 8 when Iran struck commercial ships
DXY 99.650, −0.05% — lowest in seven weeks
Hormuz transits 8 vessels Monday vs ~130/day pre-crisis

一 · 行情表现

确认:8月5日沪铝“击穿 MA60 后反落”——这是今日最重要的技术事实

  • 沪铝 AL2609(8月5日):开 23,800,盘中 23,715–23,840,收 23,745,+20(+0.08%)。
  • 均线:MA5 23,690、MA10 23,489、MA30 23,158.50、MA60 23,759.17。
  • 位置:收盘价高于 MA5 / MA10 / MA30,仍低于 MA60 达 14.17 元。
  • 关键细节:盘中最高 23,840 高出 MA60 达 80.83 元——该线在盘中被跨越,随后于同一交易日内被交还。
  • MACD:DIF 69.24 位于 DEA −28.41 之上,红柱 195.31;报告给出的核心运行区间为 23,500–24,000 元/吨。
  • 成交量与持仓量:8月5日口径在所查来源中未见披露。最近一次确认口径为 7月30日(成交 267,105 手、持仓 253,776 手、日增 2,341 手),已滞后四个交易日,不作为当期数据引用。

确认:伦铝 8月5日存在两个不可调和的口径,全部并列

  • 口径一(SMM / AlCircle):伦铝 3M 开 3,215 美元,盘中 3,205–3,218 美元,收 3,211 美元,−0.20%。均线 MA5 3,208.70、MA10 3,189.65、MA30 3,160.98、MA60 3,355.46;MACD DIF −14.09 位于 DEA −30.54 之上,红柱 32.90;核心区间 3,150–3,300 美元。
  • 口径二(TradingEconomics):8月5日 3,249.65 美元,+28.65(+0.89%),前收 3,221.00 美元;月 +4.45%、年 +23.83%;三季度预测 3,231.49 美元、十二个月预测 3,421.47 美元。
  • 两个口径相差 38.65 美元、约 1.2%。本简报不作取舍,不指定其一为唯一事实。

解读:价位判断——“碰到并交还”比“没能碰到”更差

  • 昨日本简报将“沪铝 MA60 的首次正面测试”列为清单第一项,并指出该位可在单个交易日内被跨越或被确认。答案已经出现:被跨越,然后被确认为阻力。
  • 这一区别不是措辞问题。 一条从未被触及的均线,其阻力属性是未经检验的假设;一条被盘中跨越 80.83 元后又被交还的均线,其阻力属性是已被市场检验并确认的事实。 市场现在知道卖方在哪里。
  • 但同时必须给出反向的一条:MA60 自身在下移。 由 8月4日的 23,772.92 降至 8月5日的 23,759.17,单日下移 13.75 元。 这意味着即使价格原地不动,该线也在以每日约 13–14 元的速度向价格靠拢;当前 14.17 元的缺口在数学上约等于一个交易日的均线自然下移量。
  • 伦铝一侧不存在同类张力:以 SMM 口径 3,211 美元计,距 MA60(3,355.46)约 −4.3%;MA60 由 3,361.74 降至 3,355.46,单日下移 6.28 美元,按此速度需要数月而非数日。 伦铝的现实约束仍在 3,218(8月5日高点)与 3,249.65–3,261.70 的冲突高点带。
  • 支撑层级:沪铝近端为 8月5日低点 23,715 与 MA5(23,690),其下为核心区间下沿 23,500;伦铝近端为 MA5(3,208.70)与 8月5日低点 3,205,其下为 MA10(3,189.65)与核心区间下沿 3,150。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认:现货大涨,且昨日的日期归属问题就此解决

  • SMM A00 / 上海现货铝锭:23,730 元/吨,+230 ↑。
  • 口径澄清:23,500 + 230 = 23,730。 这确认了 23,500 为 8月4日印记、23,730 为 8月5日印记,昨日并列保留的“归属 8月3日或 8月4日”之疑就此消除。
  • 华东现货升贴水(对沪铝 2608 合约):由“贴水 20 元至平水”转为升水 8–40 元至贴水 8–20 元。
  • 华中:对 08 合约贴水 170–200 元(前值贴水 170–190 元)。
  • LME 铝:3,211 美元(−0.20%,SMM 口径) ↓ / 3,249.65 美元(+0.89%,TradingEconomics 口径) ↑。两个口径并列。
  • LME 库存:271,275 吨(7月24日),注册可用 245,350 吨。 第十二个交易日未更新;另一口径 267,800 吨。
  • 国内铝锭社会库存:95.8 万吨,周增 5,000 吨(8月3日周度口径,延续) ↑。
  • 主流消费地铝锭库存:8月5日日内减少 9,500 吨 ↓;另有一则 8月5日期货报告记录前一交易日主流消费地库存日减 2,000 吨。
  • ADC12:延续 SMM 口径下跌 100 元/吨 ↓;8月5日无确认新印记,该数值已滞后。
  • 氧化铝期货:AO2609 收 2,621(7月31日,延续)。8月4–5日无已确认新印记。
  • 氧化铝成本与区间(SMM 8月口径,延续):行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;预期区间 2,600–2,650 元/吨,8 月可能短暂跌破 2,600。
  • 铝土矿:70–75 美元/吨;港口铝土矿库存 94 万吨;全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨)。
  • 原油:Brent 79.29 美元(8月6日),−0.16(−0.20%) ↓;月 +6.92%、年 +19.36%;三季度预测 90.26 美元。WTI 报约 75 美元,本周前三个交易日累计下跌 11%。
  • 美元指数:99.650,−0.0495(−0.05%) ↓;近一月 −1.36%、近十二月 +1.27%;三季度预测 99.614。周三盘中跌破 99.8,为七周最低。

解读

  • 本节的核心变化是主导权的转移。 8月3日至8月4日,盘面上涨而现货不跟,基差被动走弱;8月5日反过来——现货上涨 230 元、基差由贴水转升水、三地同步去库,而盘面仅收 +20 并在 MA60 前折返。
  • 这不是矛盾,而是交接。 两者定价的对象不同:盘面定价的是新闻,而新闻在 8月5日变坏了;现货定价的是当日的提货与到货,而当日的提货是好的。
  • 需要克制的一点是:单日 230 元的现货涨幅与单日 9,500 吨的区域去库,均为“日频”证据。 它们足以推翻“本轮上涨完全由盘面单边驱动、现货不予认可”的判断,但不足以推翻周度社会库存已转为累积这一“周频”事实。 频率不同的证据应当分层使用,不应互相抵消。
  • 氧化铝一侧本期无新印记,所有数值均为延续口径,其“成本下移 + 新增产能 + 矿库累积”的方向未变,但今日不构成新的边际信息。
  • 原油与美元同向下行,但对铝的方向相反:原油下跌是海峡重开定价的直接表达(利空),美元跌至七周低位则从估值端构成支撑(利多)。 这是今日宏观栏内部唯一的明确对冲。

三 · 库存

确认:周频已转向累积,日频出现三地同步去库

  • SMM 国内铝锭社会库存(延续,8月3日周度口径):95.8 万吨,周增 5,000 吨;同比减少 21,000 吨。 仍为本轮首次累库。
  • 8月5日日频:主流消费地铝锭库存日减 9,500 吨,广东、无锡、巩义同步去库。
  • 8月5日期货报告另载:前一交易日主流消费地库存日减 2,000 吨。
  • 7 月周均去库幅度 54,800 吨/周,为近三年同期最高水平(SMM 口径)。
  • SMM 展望:2026 年下半年社会库存有可能回落至 80 万吨以下。
  • LME:271,275 吨(7月24日),注册可用 245,350 吨。第十二个交易日未更新;另一口径 267,800 吨。
  • 上期所铸造铝合金仓单(8月3日,延续):17,553 吨,日减 118 吨。
  • 全国氧化铝库存:702.8 万吨,周增 2.4 万吨;港口铝土矿 94 万吨。

解读:两个频率,两个结论,不应混用

  • 必须先澄清一处容易混淆的口径:7 月“周均去库 54,800 吨”与此前引用的“周度出库量 12.77 万吨”不是同一指标。 前者是社会库存的净减少量,后者是仓库出库量。 54,800 吨/周的净去库与“7月23日 100.6 万吨 → 7月30日 95.3 万吨”的路径(净减约 5.3 万吨)完全自洽。
  • 因此本期的信息结构是:周频指标已经转向(+5,000 吨),而日频指标在转向之后仍能给出连续的去库读数(−9,500 吨、三地同步)。
  • 正确的读法是:趋势已经拐头,但拐头之后的斜率尚未确立。 一次周度累库确认了方向的改变;随后的日频去库说明这一改变的幅度可能远比“恢复累库周期”要温和。
  • SMM 自身给出的“下半年可能跌破 80 万吨”这一展望,与本期 +5,000 吨的累库并列存在,应当被理解为“方向翻转但年内低位未必被打破”的中性偏多设定,而非对累库的否认 (解读)。
  • 境外一侧无任何新信息:LME 库存已连续十二个交易日停留在 7月24日的 271,275 吨口径。 在缺乏更新的情况下,该数值的“史低”属性仍然成立,但其作为“当期证据”的效力正在随时间衰减,不宜再作为新增利多反复计入。

四 · 宏观因素

确认:8月5日地缘——坐标已敲定,过渡条款已具体化

  • 伊朗与阿曼于 8月5日(周三)敲定拟议霍尔木兹航路的地理坐标。
  • 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃(Esmail Baghaei):德黑兰与马斯喀特的联合声明正在审阅中,处于最后起草阶段。
  • 过渡条款(据报道):60 天临时机制;北向(入)经伊朗领海航道,南向(出)经阿曼水域航道并与伊朗协调;过渡期内不征收任何通行费或服务费;各方在 **30 天内清除中线航道水雷,其后中线航道承担双向通航,永久安排由阿曼与伊朗另行谈判。**
  • 两国将通过外交部之间的联合工作组,就未来航行管理、所提供服务及相关费用按国际标准继续磋商;双方重申对各自领海的主权与主权权利。
  • 美方原计划于周三宣布该临时协议。
  • 特朗普表述:谈判“进展非常顺利”;“我们 48 小时内就会知道”;就收费问题称“我不会让他们收费”。
  • CNN 分析将正在成形的协议定性为“正在成形,但不是特朗普想要的那一份”。

确认:同期存在的反向证据

  • 伊朗方面表示:只要美国维持对伊朗港口的海上封锁,任何新协议本身都不能保证船舶安全通行。
  • 伊朗支持的胡塞武装宣称在亚丁湾袭击了一艘沙特油轮,并威胁红海其他船只。
  • 周一过峡船舶仅 8 艘,而升级前约为每日 130 艘。
  • 伊朗已放弃“对双向通航的完全控制”这一要求,并据报考虑允许欧洲国家参与扫雷。

确认:先例——本轮并非市场第一次为霍尔木兹协议定价

  • 在 6月17日框架下,伦铝现货于 6月15日跌至 3,418 美元/吨,为 3 月中旬以来最低,较 6月2日 3,854 美元/吨的年内高点回落约 11%。
  • 该框架于 7月8日破裂——伊朗袭击多艘商船。

确认:美元、利率与数据日程

  • 美元指数 99.650,−0.0495(−0.05%);近一月 −1.36%、近十二月 +1.27%;三季度预测 99.614。 周三跌破 99.8,为七周最低。
  • 归因(TradingEconomics 叙述):美日当局针对日元的协调干预;联储按兵不动;能源价格下跌压低通胀预期,削弱近期加息预期。
  • 原油:Brent 79.29 美元(8月6日),−0.20%;WTI 约 75 美元,本周前三个交易日累计 −11%。
  • 联邦基金利率 3.63%。 9 月方向冲突未收敛且有所扩大:CME FedWatch 8月4日口径显示加息 25 个基点概率 61.9%,与此前并列的 7月28日降息 54.4% 口径方向相反;来源中另出现 9月10日与 9月17日两个会议日期口径。 本简报继续不采用任何利率数值,会议日期仍沿用此前记录的 9月16日并标注存疑。
  • 数据日程:7 月非农就业于 8月7日(周五)公布,预期新增约 8.0–8.8 万人(前值 5.7 万),失业率 4.2%–4.3%。

解读:方向判定

  • 地缘:利空程度较昨日进一步加深,且加深点非常具体——费用条款被取消了。 昨日版本为“收取安全与环保服务费”,而费用正是最难的障碍(海湾国家与美国均已明确拒绝通行费,特朗普称“我不会让他们收费”);新版过渡机制直接规定 60 天内不收费,并将管理权、服务与费用整体交给联合工作组。 这不是解决,而是延后——但延后正是协议得以签署的方式。
  • 同时必须记录反向条款:美国对伊朗港口的封锁仍在,伊方明确表示协议本身不保证安全通行。 这意味着“文本落地”与“航道可用”可以是两件事,且当前证据支持后者仍未发生。
  • 胡塞对沙特油轮的袭击是一条独立于霍尔木兹的走廊风险,任何霍尔木兹文本都不覆盖红海。 该项应单独计入利多栏,而非并入海峡项。
  • 先例是今日最锋利的一条:市场已经为一份霍尔木兹协议定过一次价(伦铝自 3,854 跌至 3,418,约 −11%),也已经因该协议破裂而收回过一次定价。 因此对本次协议的合理预期是对称的:落地则有可比幅度的回吐空间,破裂则有可比幅度的回补空间。 真正的新增信息只有两项——扫雷是否实际开始、封锁是否实际解除。
  • 美元:明确利多(对铝),且是今日宏观栏内最干净的一条。 99.650 为七周最低,估值端压力实质性缓解。
  • 原油:明确利空,已被充分表达(WTI 三日 −11%)。
  • 净判定:宏观组合为“地缘利空加深、美元利多加强、原油利空已定价”。 相较昨日的“方向偏空但落地未至”,今日应修正为“利空条款已具体化,但落地的物理前置条件(扫雷、解除封锁)仍未满足”。

五 · 基本面

确认:国内供应——运行产能已越过 4,500 万吨

  • 截至 2026 年 6 月,中国电解铝运行产能达 4,531 万吨,较 2025 年末增加 62.23 万吨。
  • SMM 口径:7 月社会库存周均去化 54,800 吨,为近三年同期最高;并展望 2026 年下半年社会库存有可能跌破 80 万吨。
  • SMM 表述:供应已在高位平台化,新增产能空间有限;新能源汽车、储能等新兴领域需求稳定,传统建筑与包装受季节性淡季压制。

延续:境外供应(8月4–5日口径,未更新)

  • SMM 将 2026 年中国以外“计划投产运行产能”估计上修 67.8%,由 138 万吨升至 232 万吨。
  • 印尼 2026 年电解铝运行产能预计约 251 万吨(2025 年约 87 万吨);南山印尼一期 40 万吨;PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry 50 万吨预计 2026 年 10 月达产。
  • 印度 Balco 8 月继续爬产;斯洛伐克 Slovalco 四季度重启;密苏里冶炼厂年底前重启;美铝因澳大利亚精炼厂问题下调产量指引。
  • EGA Al Taweelah 截至 7月2日 1,262 槽中已重启 89 槽。
  • 7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%,日均产量环比 +1.6%。

延续:国内需求(7月25日当周口径,已滞后两周)

  • 下游龙头加工企业开工率 61.1%,周环比 −0.2 个百分点。
  • 分板块:铝型材 52.9%、原生合金 59.0%、再生铝 50.8%(近年低位)、线缆 63.6%、板带 69.4%、铝箔 70.9%。
  • 6 月板带出口同比 +44%,铝箔出口同比 +23.8%;光伏组件排产由 7 月 38.5 GW 升至 8 月 39.3 GW。
  • 中国 7 月制造业 PMI:统计局与财新双口径均为 49.2。

延续:氧化铝(无新印记)

  • AO2609 收 2,621(7月31日);行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;SMM 预期区间 2,600–2,650 元/吨,8 月可能短暂跌破 2,600。
  • 华南未来数月规划新增产能近 300 万吨;港口铝土矿 94 万吨;铝土矿 70–75 美元/吨;全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨。

解读

  • 今日基本面栏唯一的新增信息在国内供应端,且方向偏空:运行产能 4,531 万吨已越过 4,500 万吨的产能天花板参照线,较 2025 年末增加 62.23 万吨。 在需求端开工率仍处 61.1% 的背景下,供应端的这一增量意味着国内的平衡表并未因去库而改善,去库更多来自到货节奏而非消费扩张。
  • 但同一来源亦给出偏多的一条:7 月周均去库 54,800 吨为近三年同期最高,且展望下半年库存可能跌破 80 万吨。 这与本周 +5,000 吨的累库并列存在,应理解为“年内库存低位仍有可能被刷新,但路径不再是单向的”。
  • 境外供应与国内需求两栏本期均无新印记,方向维持昨日判定:境外增量确定、国内需求疲弱。 需要提示的是,这两栏的口径已分别滞后一至两周,其作为“当期驱动”的权重应当下调,不宜每日等权重重复计入。
  • 氧化铝本期无新印记,不构成边际信息;其成本下移的中期方向不变。

六 · 原铝现货市场

确认:8月5日 SMM 现货日评——多地去库,采购情绪回暖

  • SMM 表述:“沪铝 2608 合约重心较昨日小幅上移,而下游采购情绪偏弱。”
  • 升贴水:升水 8–40 元至贴水 8–20 元(对 08 合约);华中成交集中于对 08 合约贴水 170–200 元。
  • 主流消费地铝锭库存日减 9,500 吨,广东、无锡、巩义同步去库——多地去库提振了现货采购情绪。

确认:情绪指数(8月5日 SMM 口径,已更新为当期)

  • 华东:出货意愿指数 3.1(日环比 +0.01),采购意愿指数 2.86(日环比 +0.06)。
  • 华中:出货意愿指数 2.99(日环比 −0.2),采购意愿指数 2.94(日环比 +0.03)。

解读

  • 本节是今日全篇中改善最明确的一节,且改善是多项同时发生的:现货价 +230、华东基差由贴水转升水、三地同步去库、两个区域的采购意愿指数同步回升。
  • 需要注意的一处内部张力:SMM 的文字表述仍为“下游采购情绪偏弱”,而采购意愿指数两地均环比回升(华东 +0.06、华中 +0.03)。 两者并不矛盾——指数衡量的是边际变化,文字描述的是绝对水平。 绝对水平仍弱,边际方向已改善,这是本节的准确读法。
  • 华中出货意愿指数单日下降 0.2 是本节唯一的负向读数,且降幅在两个区域四项指标中最大。 结合华中贴水由 170–190 扩大至 170–200,可判断华中的边际弱化仍在继续,与华东、华南的改善不同步。
  • 昨日清单第 6 项(“基差能否跟涨”)的答案是明确的“是”。 这削弱了“本轮上涨为盘面单边驱动”的判断——至少在 8月5日,现货给出了实质性的接货证据 (解读)。
  • 但需同时保留的一条限制是:8月5日恰是盘面停滞的一天(+20)。 现货在盘面停滞时走强,既可以读作“真实需求补位”,也可以读作“盘面回落使下游按需补库变得划算”。 本简报倾向于后者更接近事实,因为 SMM 同时记录了“下游采购情绪偏弱”的绝对水平描述。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(7 项)

  • 美元指数跌至七周最低 99.650,近一月 −1.36%——今日最干净的利多项。
  • 现货与基差同步转强:SMM A00 +230 至 23,730;华东由贴水 20 至平水转为对 08 合约升水 8–40 元。
  • 日频去库重现:8月5日主流消费地库存日减 9,500 吨,广东、无锡、巩义同步去库;两区域采购意愿指数环比回升。
  • 境外可交割库存仍处极端低位:LME 271,275 吨(7月24日)为 1998 年 1 月以来最低,注册可用 245,350 吨。
  • 海峡在物理上仍未打开:周一过峡船舶仅 8 艘,而危机前约 130 艘/日;中线航道扫雷需 30 天;美国对伊朗港口封锁未解,伊方称协议本身不保证安全通行。
  • 红海构成第二条独立走廊风险:胡塞武装宣称袭击亚丁湾一艘沙特油轮并威胁其他船只——霍尔木兹文本不覆盖该风险。
  • 协议破裂有先例:6月17日框架已于 7月8日因伊朗袭击商船而破裂,当时的溢价随即回补。

利空因素(9 项)

  • 伊阿已敲定航路地理坐标,联合声明进入最后起草阶段——距文本落地仅一步。
  • 过渡条款取消费用:60 天内不收取任何通行费或服务费,费用问题被推给联合工作组——最难的障碍被移除而非解决。
  • 扫雷有明确时限:30 天内清除中线航道水雷,其后中线承担双向通航。
  • 先例的另一面:6月17日框架期间伦铝自 3,854 美元跌至 3,418 美元,约 −11%——市场已展示过一次协议对铝价的代价。
  • 沪铝在 MA60 上“击穿后反落”:盘中最高 23,840 高出 MA60 达 80.83 元,收盘 23,745 仍低 14.17 元,中期下降结构未被修复。
  • 原油持续下行:Brent 79.29 美元,WTI 约 75 美元、本周前三日 −11%——海峡重开已被充分定价。
  • 国内运行产能越过 4,500 万吨:截至 6 月为 4,531 万吨,较 2025 年末增加 62.23 万吨。
  • 周频社会库存仍处累积状态:95.8 万吨、周增 5,000 吨,为本轮首次累库。
  • 境内需求与制造业延续疲弱:下游开工率 61.1%,型材 52.9%,再生铝 50.8%;统计局与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。

八 · 一句话观点

昨日提出的两个可证伪问题在同一个交易日内全部得到回答,且方向相反:沪铝 AL2609 高开 23,800、最高 23,840,为本轮反弹首次高出 MA60(23,759.17)达 80.83 元,随后悉数回吐、收 23,745(+20,+0.08%),仍低于该线 14.17 元——一条被跨越后又被交还的均线,其阻力属性已由“未经检验的假设”变为“已被确认的事实”,这比从未触及更差;而与此同时现货完成了盘面没能完成的事:SMM A00 大涨 230 元至 23,730(此涨幅亦顺带确认 23,500 为 8月4日印记),华东基差由贴水 20 至平水翻转为对 08 合约升水 8–40 元,主流消费地库存日减 9,500 吨且广东、无锡、巩义同步去库,两区域采购意愿指数环比回升——近三日“盘面领涨、现货不认”的结构就此对调为“现货领先、盘面停滞”;盘面停滞的原因是条款变坏了:伊朗与阿曼已于 8月5日敲定拟议航路的地理坐标,联合声明进入最后起草阶段,过渡机制为 60 天、北向经伊朗领海入、南向经阿曼水域出、过渡期内不收取任何费用、30 天内清除中线航道水雷,而昨日版本中最难的“收费”争议并未被解决,只是被推给了两国外交部的联合工作组——障碍被移除而非被解决,这恰是协议得以签署的方式;金属一侧仍握有三道非修辞性的防线:美国对伊朗港口的封锁未解且伊方明言协议本身不保证安全通行,胡塞武装宣称袭击亚丁湾一艘沙特油轮而红海是霍尔木兹文本不覆盖的第二条走廊,周一过峡船舶仅 8 艘对危机前约 130 艘/日的 94% 缺口不会因宣布而闭合;但今日最锋利的一条不是论证而是先例——在 6月17日框架下伦铝现货自 6月2日 3,854 美元的年内高点跌至 6月15日的 3,418 美元、约 −11%,而该框架于 7月8日因伊朗袭击商船破裂、溢价随即回补——因此对本次协议的合理预期是对称而非单向的:落地则有可比幅度的回吐空间,破裂则有可比幅度的回补空间,真正的新增信息只有扫雷是否实际开始与封锁是否实际解除;宏观内部则出现了今日唯一明确的对冲——美元指数跌至七周最低 99.650(近一月 −1.36%)对铝构成实质支撑,而原油(WTI 三日 −11%)已把海峡重开定得很满;技术判定与昨日一致但更紧:两个盘面仍在 MA60 之下(沪铝 −14.17 元、伦铝约 −4.3%),且沪铝的 MA60 正以每日约 13.75 元的速度下移——这意味着即使价格原地不动,该线也将在下一个交易日与价格相遇,本轮反弹的性质由此不再是“接近被决定”,而是“即将被决定”。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  1. 沪铝 MA60(23,759.17)的第二次测试——本清单首要项,且性质已与昨日不同: 8月5日已完成一次“击穿(最高 23,840,+80.83)后反落(收 23,745,−14.17)”。 该线已被确认为有效阻力,且自身以每日约 13.75 元下移。 关注两个互斥结果:放量收于该线之上且守住,则中期下降结构进入实质修复,上方看核心区间上沿 24,000 与 24,150;再度于该线下方收盘,则形成“双重受阻”,应以 8月5日低点 23,715 与 MA5(23,690)为第一道验证位,其下为 23,500。
  2. 联合声明是否发布、以及发布时的费用条款——本清单最大的单一风险项: 伊阿已敲定地理坐标,声明处于最后起草阶段。 关注三项可证伪节点:联合声明文本是否公布;过渡期“零费用”是否在最终文本中保留(这是较昨日版本最关键的偏空变化);永久安排中的费用问题是否仍被留给联合工作组。 文本发布是铝价本轮面临的最大单一利空事件。
  3. 物理前置条件而非文本——今夜最有信息量的两项: 一是扫雷是否实际开始(条款为 30 天内清除中线航道水雷,且伊朗据报考虑允许欧洲国家参与);二是美国对伊朗港口的海上封锁是否解除(伊方明确将其列为安全通行的前提)。 任何一项落地都是真实的供应回归信号;仅有文本而无这两项,则铝的稀缺定价在物理上仍然成立。
  4. 过峡船舶数量能否自 8 艘回升: 周一 8 艘对危机前约 130 艘/日的缺口达 94%。 该指标是所有指标中最直接、最难被叙述污染的一项,其回升幅度将直接决定“海湾产能回归”从慢变量转为快变量的时点。
  5. 现货强势能否延续第二日: 8月5日 A00 +230、华东基差转升水、三地去库 9,500 吨、两区域采购意愿回升。 关注 8月6日现货是否延续,尤其是华东基差能否在盘面波动下守住升水。 连续两日的基差升水是真实需求的证据;单日转正则更可能是盘面停滞下的按需补库。
  6. 华中的边际弱化是否扩散: 华中出货意愿指数单日 −0.2 为四项指标中最大降幅,贴水由 170–190 扩大至 170–200。 关注该弱化是否向华东传导——若华东升水在 8月6日迅速收窄,则 8月5日的现货强势应下调权重。
  7. 美元七周低位的持续性与周五非农的前置定价: 美元指数 99.650,近一月 −1.36%,归因包括美日协调干预日元与能源价格回落压低通胀预期。 关注 8月7日非农(预期 +8.0–8.8 万,前值 5.7 万,失业率 4.2%–4.3%)前的美元走势;若美元自七周低位反弹,今日唯一明确的利多项将被抵消。 同时注意 9 月联储方向冲突是否收敛(加息 61.9% 口径对降息 54.4% 口径)。
  8. 红海走廊的独立风险: 胡塞武装宣称袭击亚丁湾一艘沙特油轮并威胁其他船只。 该风险不被任何霍尔木兹文本覆盖,若进一步升级,可在海峡利空落地的同时独立支撑运费与保险成本。

1 · Market Performance

Confirmed: on August 5 SHFE pierced MA60 and closed back below it — the most important technical fact today

  • SHFE AL2609 (August 5): open 23,800, range 23,715–23,840, close 23,745, +20 (+0.08%).
  • Moving averages: MA5 23,690, MA10 23,489, MA30 23,158.50, MA60 23,759.17.
  • Position: the close is above MA5, MA10 and MA30, and 14.17 yuan BELOW MA60.
  • The detail that matters: the intraday high of 23,840 was 80.83 yuan ABOVE MA60 — the line was crossed during the session and handed back within the same session.
  • MACD: DIF 69.24 above DEA −28.41, red histogram 195.31; the stated core trading range is 23,500–24,000 yuan/mt.
  • Volume and open interest: no August 5 caliber appears in the sources consulted. The last confirmed print is July 30 (267,105 lots, open interest 253,776, +2,341), four sessions stale, and is not quoted as current data.

Confirmed: LME’s August 5 exists in two irreconcilable calibers, both carried

  • Caliber one (SMM / AlCircle): LME 3M open $3,215, range $3,205–3,218, close $3,211, −0.20%. MA5 $3,208.70, MA10 $3,189.65, MA30 $3,160.98, MA60 $3,355.46; MACD DIF −14.09 above DEA −30.54, red histogram 32.90; core range $3,150–3,300.
  • Caliber two (TradingEconomics): August 5 at $3,249.65, +28.65 (+0.89%) against a previous close of $3,221.00; month +4.45%, year +23.83%; Q3 forecast $3,231.49, 12-month forecast $3,421.47.
  • The two differ by $38.65, about 1.2%. This brief adjudicates neither and adopts neither as sole truth.

Interpretation: where price sits — touched and surrendered is worse than never reached

  • Yesterday this brief put “SHFE’s first genuine test of MA60” at the top of the watchlist and said the level could be cleared or confirmed inside a single session. The answer arrived: cleared, then confirmed as resistance.
  • That distinction is not semantic. A moving average that has never been touched carries resistance as an untested assumption; a moving average that was exceeded by 80.83 yuan intraday and then handed back carries resistance as a tested and confirmed fact. The market now knows where the seller is.
  • The offsetting fact must be given alongside it: MA60 is itself falling. It declined from 23,772.92 on August 4 to 23,759.17 on August 5, a drop of 13.75 in one session. The line is therefore descending toward price at roughly 13–14 yuan per day, and today’s 14.17-yuan gap is arithmetically about one session of that natural decline.
  • LME carries no equivalent tension: on the SMM caliber $3,211 sits about 4.3% below MA60 ($3,355.46), and that MA60 fell only $6.28 from $3,361.74, a pace measured in months rather than days. LME’s live constraints remain the August 5 high of $3,218 and the conflicting high band of $3,249.65–3,261.70.
  • Support ladder: SHFE’s near levels are the August 5 low of 23,715 and MA5 (23,690), then the core-range floor of 23,500; LME’s near levels are MA5 ($3,208.70) and the August 5 low of $3,205, then MA10 ($3,189.65) and the core-range floor of $3,150.

2 · Prices & Related Markets

Confirmed: spot jumped, and yesterday’s date-attribution problem is resolved by it

  • SMM A00 / Shanghai spot ingot: 23,730 yuan/mt, +230 ↑.
  • Caliber resolution: 23,500 + 230 = 23,730. That confirms 23,500 as the August 4 print and 23,730 as the August 5 print, closing the “August 3 or August 4” ambiguity this brief carried in parallel yesterday.
  • East China spot premium/discount (against the SHFE August 2608 contract): moved from a discount of 20 to parity into a **premium of 8–40 through to a discount of 8–20.**
  • Central China: discount of 170–200 against the August contract (prior 170–190).
  • LME aluminum: $3,211 (−0.20%, SMM caliber) ↓ / $3,249.65 (+0.89%, TradingEconomics caliber) ↑. Both carried.
  • LME stocks: 271,275 mt (July 24), on-warrant 245,350 mt. A twelfth consecutive session without an update; alternative caliber 267,800 mt.
  • China aluminum ingot social inventory: 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w (August 3 weekly caliber, carried) ↑.
  • Ingot inventory in major consumption areas: −9,500 mt day-on-day on August 5 ↓; a separate August 5 futures report records the prior session at −2,000 mt day-on-day.
  • ADC12: carried at −100 yuan/mt on the SMM caliber ↓; no confirmed August 5 print, so the figure is stale.
  • Alumina futures: AO2609 close 2,621 (July 31, carried). No confirmed August 4 or August 5 print.
  • Alumina cost and band (SMM August caliber, carried): industry average full cost about 2,530 yuan/mt; expected band 2,600–2,650, with a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August.
  • Bauxite: $70–75/mt; port bauxite inventory 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 mt w/w).
  • Crude: Brent $79.29 (August 6), −0.16 (−0.20%) ↓; month +6.92%, year +19.36%; Q3 forecast $90.26. WTI reported near $75 after an 11% loss across the week’s first three sessions.
  • US dollar index: 99.650, −0.0495 (−0.05%) ↓; past month −1.36%, past 12 months +1.27%; Q3 forecast 99.614. It fell below 99.8 on Wednesday, the lowest in seven weeks.

Interpretation

  • The core change in this section is a transfer of leadership. From August 3 to 4 the board rose while physical withheld and the basis passively weakened; on August 5 the reverse — spot up 230, the basis flipping from discount to premium, three regions destocking together — while the board managed +20 and turned back at MA60.
  • That is not a contradiction, it is a handoff. The two are pricing different objects: the board prices the news, and the news got worse on August 5; physical prices the day’s liftings and arrivals, and the day’s liftings were good.
  • One restraint is required: a 230-yuan single-day spot move and a 9,500 mt single-day regional draw are daily-frequency evidence. They are sufficient to overturn the claim that this rally is purely board-driven with physical withholding endorsement; they are not sufficient to overturn the weekly-frequency fact that social inventory has turned to accumulation. Evidence of different frequencies should be layered, not netted against each other.
  • Alumina has no new print this session; every figure is carried. Its “falling cost, new capacity, accumulating ore stocks” direction is unchanged but constitutes no new marginal information today.
  • Crude and the dollar both fell, but they point opposite ways for aluminum: falling crude is the direct expression of Strait-reopening pricing (bearish), while a seven-week low in the dollar is valuation support (bullish). That is the only clean internal hedge in today’s macro column.

3 · Inventory

Confirmed: the weekly series has turned to accumulation while the daily series shows three regions destocking together

  • SMM China aluminum ingot social inventory (carried, August 3 weekly caliber): 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w; −21,000 mt y/y. Still the first build of the cycle.
  • August 5 daily: ingot inventory in the major consumption areas fell 9,500 mt, with destocking in Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi.
  • An August 5 futures report separately records the prior session at −2,000 mt day-on-day in the major consumption areas.
  • July weekly drawdowns averaged 54,800 mt per week, the highest for that period in three years (SMM caliber).
  • SMM outlook: social inventory could fall below 800,000 mt in H2 2026.
  • LME: 271,275 mt (July 24), on-warrant 245,350 mt. A twelfth session without an update; alternative caliber 267,800 mt.
  • SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants (August 3, carried): 17,553 mt, −118 mt.
  • National alumina inventory: 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w; port bauxite 940,000 mt.

Interpretation: two frequencies, two conclusions, not to be mixed

  • One caliber confusion must be cleared first: July’s “54,800 mt average weekly drawdown” and the previously quoted “127,700 mt weekly withdrawals” are not the same measure. The former is the net reduction in social inventory; the latter is warehouse outflow. A 54,800 mt/week net draw is fully consistent with the path 1.006 Mt on July 23 → 953 kt on July 30, a net fall of about 53,000 mt.
  • So the information structure this period is: the weekly indicator has turned (+5,000 mt) while the daily indicator still delivers destocking prints after the turn (−9,500 mt, three regions together).
  • The correct reading is that the trend has turned but the post-turn slope is not established. One weekly build confirms a change in direction; the daily draws that followed suggest the magnitude of that change may be far milder than a resumed accumulation cycle.
  • SMM’s own projection that H2 inventory could fall below 800,000 mt sits alongside this week’s +5,000 mt build, and should be read as “the direction flipped but the year’s low may still be taken out,” not as a denial of the build (interpretation).
  • Nothing new offshore: LME stocks have now sat on the July 24 caliber of 271,275 mt for twelve consecutive sessions. Absent an update, the record-low property still holds, but its force as current-period evidence decays with time and it should not keep being counted as a fresh bullish increment each day.

4 · Macro

Confirmed: August 5 geopolitics — the coordinates are fixed and the interim terms are specific

  • Iran and Oman finalized on Wednesday August 5 the geographical coordinates of a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei: a joint statement from Tehran and Muscat is under review and in the final drafting stage.
  • Interim terms as reported: a **60-day mechanism; inbound traffic through a northern lane in Iranian territorial waters and outbound traffic through a southern lane in Omani waters in coordination with Iran; no tolls or fees levied during the temporary period; the parties working to clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days, after which the median lane carries both directions under a permanent arrangement still to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.**
  • The two states are to maintain a joint working group between their foreign ministries on the future administration of navigation, the services provided and associated costs in accordance with international standards; both reaffirm sovereignty and sovereign rights over their territorial waters.
  • The US had aimed to announce the interim agreement on Wednesday.
  • Trump: talks are “moving along very nicely”; “we’ll know in 48 hours”; and on fees, “I’m not going to let them charge.”
  • CNN’s analysis characterizes the emerging agreement as one that is “taking shape — but not one Trump wants.”

Confirmed: the counter-evidence standing alongside it

  • Iran states that no new agreement by itself ensures safe passage while the United States maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
  • Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed they targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened other vessels in the Red Sea.
  • Only 8 vessels transited the Strait on Monday, against roughly 130 per day before the escalation.
  • Iran has dropped its demand for full two-way control and is reported to be considering allowing European countries to participate in mine clearing.

Confirmed: the precedent — this is not the first Hormuz deal this market has priced

  • Under the June 17 framework, LME spot aluminum fell to $3,418/mt on June 15, the lowest since mid-March, from a year-to-date peak of $3,854/mt on June 2 — roughly 11% off the high.
  • That framework broke down on July 8, when Iran struck multiple commercial ships.

Confirmed: dollar, rates and the calendar

  • US dollar index 99.650, −0.0495 (−0.05%); past month −1.36%, past 12 months +1.27%; Q3 forecast 99.614. It fell below 99.8 on Wednesday, the lowest in seven weeks.
  • Attribution (TradingEconomics narrative): coordinated US–Japan intervention targeting the yen; the Fed holding; and lower energy prices reducing inflation expectations and dimming near-term rate-increase expectations.
  • Crude: Brent $79.29 (August 6), −0.20%; WTI near $75, down 11% across the week’s first three sessions.
  • Fed funds 3.63%. The September direction conflict is unresolved and has widened: a CME FedWatch caliber dated August 4 shows a 61.9% probability of a 25bp HIKE at the upcoming meeting, against the July 28 caliber of 54.4% for a 25bp CUT carried previously; conflicting meeting dates of September 10 and September 17 also appear in the sources. No rate figure is adopted, and the meeting date remains the previously recorded September 16 with that conflict flagged.
  • Calendar: July nonfarm payrolls land Friday August 7, consensus roughly +80,000 to +88,000 after 57,000, unemployment 4.2–4.3%.

Interpretation: direction

  • Geopolitics: more bearish than yesterday, and the increment is very specific — the fee clause was removed. Yesterday’s version charged service fees for security and marine-environment protection, and the fee was the hardest obstacle, since Gulf states and Washington had rejected tolls outright and Trump has said flatly that he is not going to let them charge. The new interim mechanism keeps the lanes, drops fees entirely for sixty days, and hands administration, services and costs wholesale to a joint working group. That is deferral, not resolution — but deferral is how deals get signed.
  • The offsetting clause must be recorded too: the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports remains, and Iran states explicitly that an agreement alone does not guarantee safe passage. A landed text and a usable lane can therefore be two different things, and current evidence supports the second not yet having happened.
  • The Houthi strike on a Saudi tanker is a corridor risk independent of Hormuz, and no Hormuz text covers the Red Sea. It belongs in the bullish column on its own line, not folded into the Strait item.
  • The precedent is the sharpest fact today: this market has priced a Hormuz deal once already (LME from $3,854 to $3,418, about −11%) and has already been paid to un-price it when that deal broke. The reasonable expectation is therefore symmetric: a landed text implies comparable give-back, a broken text implies comparable recovery. The only genuinely new information is whether mine clearing actually starts and whether the blockade is actually lifted.
  • Dollar: clearly bullish for aluminum, and the cleanest item in today’s macro column. 99.650 is a seven-week low and takes real pressure off the valuation side.
  • Crude: clearly bearish and already fully expressed (WTI −11% in three sessions).
  • Net: the macro mix reads “the bearish geopolitical clause has hardened, the bullish dollar has strengthened, and the bearish crude move is already priced.” Against yesterday’s “bearish direction, not yet landed,” today should be revised to “the bearish terms are now specific, but the physical preconditions for landing — mine clearing, blockade lifted — remain unmet.”

5 · Fundamentals

Confirmed: domestic supply — operating capacity has crossed 45 Mt

  • China’s aluminum operating capacity reached 45.31 Mt as of June 2026, up 622,300 mt from year-end 2025.
  • SMM caliber: July social-inventory drawdowns averaged 54,800 mt per week, the highest for that period in three years, with a projection that social inventory could fall below 800,000 mt in H2 2026.
  • SMM’s framing: supply has plateaued at a high level with limited room for new capacity; demand from new sectors such as EVs and energy storage is steady, while traditional construction and packaging face seasonal off-season pressure.

Carried: overseas supply (August 4–5 caliber, not updated)

  • SMM’s 2026 estimate of planned commissioned operating capacity outside China stands at 2.32 Mt, raised 67.8% from 1.38 Mt.
  • Indonesia’s 2026 primary aluminum operating capacity is expected at about 2.51 Mt against roughly 870,000 mt in 2025; Nanshan Indonesia Phase I at 400,000 mt; PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry’s 500,000 mt line at full production in October 2026.
  • India’s Balco continues ramping through August; Slovakia’s Slovalco restarts in Q4; a Missouri smelter restarts by year-end; Alcoa has cut production guidance after Australian refinery issues.
  • EGA’s Al Taweelah had restarted 89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2.
  • July ex-China output −6.7% y/y, daily average +1.6% m/m.

Carried: domestic demand (week of July 25 caliber, now two weeks stale)

  • Leading downstream processors’ operating rate 61.1%, −0.2 pt w/w.
  • By sub-sector: extrusion 52.9%, primary alloy 59.0%, secondary aluminum 50.8% (a multi-year low), wire and cable 63.6%, plate/sheet/strip 69.4%, foil 70.9%.
  • June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; PV module scheduled output rising from 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August.
  • China July manufacturing PMI: both NBS and Caixin at 49.2.

Carried: alumina (no new print)

  • AO2609 close 2,621 (July 31); industry average full cost about 2,530 yuan/mt; SMM’s expected band 2,600–2,650, with a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August.
  • Nearly 3 Mt of new capacity planned in South China; port bauxite 940,000 mt; bauxite $70–75/mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt.

Interpretation

  • The only new information in this section is on domestic supply, and it is bearish: operating capacity at 45.31 Mt has crossed the 45 Mt cap reference, up 622,300 mt from end-2025. With the downstream operating rate still at 61.1%, that increment means China’s balance has not improved because of destocking — the destock owes more to arrival timing than to consumption expansion.
  • But the same source supplies a bullish line: July’s 54,800 mt average weekly draw is the strongest for that period in three years, with H2 inventory projected possibly below 800,000 mt. Read alongside this week’s +5,000 mt build, that means the year’s inventory low may still be taken out, but the path is no longer one-directional.
  • Overseas supply and domestic demand carry no new prints this session and their direction stands as yesterday: the overseas increment is certain, domestic demand is weak. Worth flagging: those two columns are now one to two weeks stale, so their weight as current drivers should be reduced rather than re-counted at full weight every day.
  • Alumina has no new print and contributes no marginal information; its medium-term direction of a falling cost floor is unchanged.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Confirmed: SMM spot daily review, August 5 — destocking across multiple regions, purchase sentiment recovering

  • SMM’s framing: “the centre of the SHFE aluminium 2608 contract edged slightly higher than yesterday, while downstream purchasing sentiment was sluggish.”
  • Premium/discount: a premium of 8–40 through to a discount of 8–20 against the August contract; Central China transactions centered on a discount of 170–200 against the August contract.
  • Ingot inventory in the major consumption areas fell 9,500 mt with destocking in Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi — destocking across multiple regions boosted sentiment for spot purchases.

Confirmed: sentiment indices (August 5 SMM caliber, now current)

  • East China: shipment sentiment index 3.1 (+0.01 d/d), procurement sentiment index 2.86 (+0.06 d/d).
  • Central China: shipment sentiment index 2.99 (−0.2 d/d), procurement sentiment index 2.94 (+0.03 d/d).

Interpretation

  • This is the most clearly improved section in today’s brief, and the improvement is multi-item: spot +230, the East China basis flipping from discount to premium, three regions destocking together, and procurement sentiment rising in both regions.
  • One internal tension deserves note: SMM’s prose still reads “downstream purchasing sentiment was sluggish” while the procurement sentiment indices rose in both regions (East China +0.06, Central China +0.03). These do not conflict — the index measures marginal change, the prose describes the absolute level. The absolute level is still weak and the marginal direction has improved; that is the accurate reading.
  • Central China’s shipment sentiment index falling 0.2 in a session is the only negative print here and the largest single move among the four indices. Combined with its discount widening from 170–190 to 170–200, Central China’s marginal deterioration is continuing and is out of step with East and South China.
  • Yesterday’s watchlist item 6 — “whether the spot basis follows the board up” — is answered clearly in the affirmative. That weakens the claim that this leg is purely board-driven; on August 5 at least, physical supplied real evidence of buying (interpretation).
  • One qualification must be kept alongside it: August 5 was also the day the board stalled (+20). Spot strengthening while the board stalls can be read as real demand stepping in, or as the board’s retreat making need-based restocking economic. This brief leans to the second as closer to the facts, because SMM simultaneously records the absolute level of downstream purchase sentiment as weak.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (7)

  • The dollar index fell to a seven-week low of 99.650, down 1.36% over the past month — the cleanest bullish item today.
  • Spot and basis strengthened together: SMM A00 +230 to 23,730; East China moved from a discount of 20-to-parity into a premium of 8–40 against the August contract.
  • Daily destocking reappeared: major consumption areas −9,500 mt on August 5 with Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi all drawing; procurement sentiment rose in both surveyed regions.
  • Overseas deliverable stock remains extremely scarce: LME 271,275 mt (July 24) is the lowest since January 1998, with on-warrant at 245,350 mt.
  • The Strait is not physically open: only 8 vessels transited Monday against roughly 130/day pre-crisis; the median lane needs 30 days of mine clearing; the US blockade of Iran’s ports is unlifted and Iran says an agreement alone does not guarantee safe passage.
  • The Red Sea is a second, independent corridor risk: the Houthis claimed a strike on a Saudi tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened other vessels — no Hormuz text covers it.
  • These deals have broken before: the June 17 framework collapsed on July 8 when Iran struck commercial ships, and the premium came back.

Bearish factors (9)

  • Iran and Oman have fixed the route’s geographical coordinates and the joint statement is in final drafting — one step from a landed text.
  • The interim terms remove fees: no tolls or service fees for 60 days, with the fee question handed to a joint working group — the hardest obstacle removed rather than resolved.
  • Mine clearing has an explicit deadline: naval mines cleared from the median lane within 30 days, after which the median lane carries both directions.
  • The other half of the precedent: under the June 17 framework LME aluminum fell from $3,854 to $3,418, about −11% — the market has already demonstrated what a deal costs aluminum.
  • SHFE pierced MA60 and closed back under it: an intraday high of 23,840 sat 80.83 yuan above the line, and the 23,745 close is 14.17 below it, so the medium-term downtrend is unrepaired.
  • Crude keeps falling: Brent $79.29, WTI near $75 and −11% across the week’s first three sessions — the Strait reopening is well priced.
  • Domestic operating capacity has crossed 45 Mt: 45.31 Mt as of June, up 622,300 mt from year-end 2025.
  • The weekly social-inventory series is still in accumulation: 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w, the first build of the cycle.
  • Domestic demand and manufacturing remain weak: downstream operating rate 61.1%, extrusion 52.9%, secondary aluminum 50.8%; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Both of yesterday’s falsifiable questions were answered inside a single session and answered in opposite directions: SHFE AL2609 opened at 23,800 and reached 23,840, trading 80.83 yuan above MA60 (23,759.17) for the first time in this rebound, then gave all of it back to close at 23,745 (+20, +0.08%), still 14.17 yuan below the line — and a moving average that is crossed and then handed back has converted resistance from an untested assumption into a confirmed fact, which is worse than never having reached it; meanwhile the physical market did what the board could not, with SMM A00 jumping 230 yuan to 23,730 (a move that also confirms 23,500 as the August 4 print), the East China basis flipping from a discount of 20-to-parity into a premium of 8–40 against the August contract, ingot inventory in the major consumption areas drawing 9,500 mt with Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi destocking together, and procurement sentiment rising in both surveyed regions — so the three-session structure of “board leads, physical withholds” has inverted into “physical leads, board stalls”; the board stalled because the terms got worse: Iran and Oman fixed the geographical coordinates of the proposed route on August 5 with the joint statement in final drafting, and the interim mechanism is 60 days, inbound through a northern lane in Iranian territorial waters, outbound through a southern lane in Omani waters, no tolls or fees during the interim, and naval mines cleared from the median lane within 30 days — while yesterday’s hardest obstacle, the fee dispute, was not resolved but handed to a joint working group between the two foreign ministries, which is how obstacles get removed rather than solved and how deals get signed; the metal still holds three non-rhetorical defences — the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports is unlifted and Iran says explicitly that an agreement alone does not guarantee safe passage, the Houthis claimed a strike on a Saudi tanker in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea is a second corridor no Hormuz text covers, and 8 vessels transited on Monday against roughly 130 a day before the crisis, a 94% shortfall that no announcement closes; but the sharpest fact today is not an argument but a precedent — under the June 17 framework LME spot aluminum fell from a year-to-date peak of $3,854 on June 2 to $3,418 on June 15, about 11% off the high, and that framework broke on July 8 when Iran struck commercial ships and the premium returned — so the reasonable expectation here is symmetric rather than directional: a landed text implies comparable give-back, a broken one implies comparable recovery, and the only genuinely new information would be mine clearing actually starting or the blockade actually lifting; inside macro there is one clean hedge, with the dollar index at a seven-week low of 99.650 (−1.36% on the month) providing real support while crude (WTI −11% in three sessions) has priced the reopening close to fully; and the technical verdict stands where it stood, only tighter — both boards remain below MA60 (SHFE by 14.17 yuan, LME by about 4.3%) and SHFE’s MA60 is itself falling roughly 13.75 yuan per session, which means the line will meet price in the next session even if price does nothing, so this rebound’s character is no longer approaching a decision but about to be decided.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  1. SHFE’s second test of MA60 (23,759.17) — the top item, and different in character from yesterday’s: August 5 already delivered a pierce (high 23,840, +80.83) and a rejection (close 23,745, −14.17). The line is now confirmed resistance, and it is descending about 13.75 yuan per session on its own. Watch two mutually exclusive outcomes: a close above it on rising volume that holds puts the medium-term downtrend into genuine repair with 24,000 (core-range top) and 24,150 above; another close below it makes this a double rejection, with the August 5 low of 23,715 and MA5 (23,690) as the first verification band and 23,500 beneath.
  2. Whether the joint statement is published, and what the fee clause says in it — the single largest risk item: the coordinates are fixed and the statement is in final drafting. Watch three falsifiable markers: whether the text is published; whether the interim “zero fees” survives into the final text (this is the most important bearish change from yesterday’s version); and whether the permanent arrangement still defers costs to the joint working group. A published text is the largest single bearish event aluminum faces this cycle.
  3. Physical preconditions rather than text — the two most informative items tonight: first, whether mine clearing actually begins (the clause is 30 days for the median lane, and Iran is reported to be weighing European participation); second, whether the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports is lifted (Tehran has made it the stated precondition for safe passage). Either landing is a real supply-return signal; a text without either leaves aluminum’s scarcity pricing physically intact.
  4. Whether transit counts recover from 8 vessels: Monday’s 8 against roughly 130/day pre-crisis is a 94% shortfall. This is the most direct and least narrative-contaminated indicator available, and the pace of its recovery determines when the Gulf’s return converts from a slow variable to a fast one.
  5. Whether spot strength extends to a second day: August 5 delivered A00 +230, the basis flipping to premium, a 9,500 mt three-region draw and rising procurement sentiment. Watch whether August 6 extends it, particularly whether East China holds a premium through board volatility. Two consecutive days of premium is evidence of real demand; a single day of it is more likely need-based restocking made economic by the board’s stall.
  6. Whether Central China’s marginal deterioration spreads: its shipment sentiment index fell 0.2 in a session, the largest of the four moves, and its discount widened from 170–190 to 170–200. Watch for transmission to East China — if the East China premium narrows quickly on August 6, August 5’s spot strength should be weighted down.
  7. The durability of the dollar’s seven-week low, and pre-positioning for Friday’s payrolls: the index sits at 99.650, −1.36% on the month, attributed to coordinated US–Japan yen intervention and energy-driven disinflation. Watch the dollar into the August 7 payrolls report (consensus +80,000 to +88,000 after 57,000, unemployment 4.2–4.3%); a bounce off the seven-week low cancels today’s one clean bullish item. Also watch whether the September Fed conflict converges (a 61.9% hike caliber against a 54.4% cut caliber).
  8. The Red Sea as an independent risk: the Houthis claimed a strike on a Saudi tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened other vessels. No Hormuz text covers this, and further escalation could support freight and insurance costs independently even as the Strait’s bearish resolution lands.

Sources: AlCircle / SMM, Domestic and overseas aluminium diverge and consolidate to repair, Middle East tensions ease disrupting aluminium price risk premium (August 5: SHFE AL2609 open 23,800, range 23,715–23,840, close 23,745, +20 (+0.08%); MA5 23,690, MA10 23,489, MA30 23,158.50, MA60 23,759.17; MACD DIF 69.24 above DEA −28.41 with red histogram 195.31; core range 23,500–24,000; LME 3M open $3,215, range $3,205–3,218, close $3,211, −0.20%; MA5 $3,208.70, MA10 $3,189.65, MA30 $3,160.98, MA60 $3,355.46; MACD DIF −14.09 above DEA −30.54 with red histogram 32.90; core range $3,150–3,300; SMM A00 spot 23,730, +230; major-consumption-area ingot inventory −2,000 mt d/d; medium and long-term moving averages in bearish alignment; Iran abandoned demands for full control over two-way shipping in the Strait and is considering allowing European countries to participate in mine-clearing, easing the aluminium price risk premium though uncertainties remain); AlCircle / SMM, Destocking emerged across multiple regions, boosting sentiment for spot aluminium purchases (August 5: “the centre of the SHFE aluminium 2608 contract edged slightly higher than yesterday, while downstream purchasing sentiment was sluggish”; premium of 8–40 to discount of 8–20 against the August contract; Central China transactions centered on a discount of 170–200; East China shipment sentiment 3.1 (+0.01) and procurement sentiment 2.86 (+0.06); Central China shipment sentiment 2.99 (−0.2) and procurement sentiment 2.94 (+0.03); ingot inventory in major consumption regions −9,500 mt with destocking in Guangdong, Wuxi and Gongyi); AlCircle / SMM, SHFE aluminium outpaces LME as China runs at 45.31 million tonnes, off-season stocks draw 54,800 tonne/week (August 5: China’s aluminium operating capacity 45.31 Mt as of June 2026, +622,300 mt from year-end 2025; July weekly inventory drawdowns averaging 54,800 mt, the highest for that period in three years; SHFE outperformed LME after the Fed held, with overseas traders pricing supply-disruption recovery and domestic traders pricing a shift from weakening to tightening fundamentals; supply plateaued with limited new capacity; EV and energy-storage demand steady while construction and packaging face off-season pressure; social inventory projected possibly below 800,000 mt in H2 2026); TradingEconomics aluminum page (August 5 $3,249.65, +28.65 (+0.89%), previous close $3,221.00; month +4.45%, year +23.83%; Q3 forecast $3,231.49 and 12-month forecast $3,421.47; narrative of a six-week high on supply constraints, non-China output −6.7% y/y in July on reduced Middle East smelter operations, China’s 45 Mt cap tightening, LME stocks at the lowest level this century, Alcoa cutting its output forecast on Australian refinery issues, and planned restarts at Slovalco in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter by year-end and EGA’s continued Al Taweelah restoration); TradingEconomics Brent crude page (August 6 $79.29, −0.16 (−0.20%); month +6.92%, year +19.36%; Q3 forecast $90.26; decline attributed to optimism on an Iran–Oman agreement with “a joint statement from both countries currently under review and in the final drafting stage, with the proposed route expected to remain operational for two to four months”; and “Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen also claimed they had targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened other vessels in the Red Sea”); TradingEconomics US dollar page (DXY 99.650, −0.0495 (−0.05%); month −1.36%, year +1.27%; Q3 forecast 99.614; “The dollar index fell to below 99.8 on Wednesday, the lowest in seven weeks,” attributed to coordinated US and Japanese intervention targeting the yen, the Fed maintaining its stance, and lower energy prices reducing inflation expectations and dimming expectations for near-term interest rate increases); Bloomberg (August 5: “Iran, Oman Reach Agreement on Proposed Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route”; and “Oil Holds Three-Day Drop as Iran, Oman Reach Hormuz Agreement,” with WTI near $75 after losing 11% in the week’s first three sessions and Brent closing above $79 on Wednesday); Axios (August 5: the US, Iran and Oman closing in on an interim agreement, with the US aiming for a Wednesday announcement; a 60-day interim mechanism with inbound traffic through a northern lane in Iranian territorial waters and outbound traffic through a southern lane in Omani waters in coordination with Iran; no tolls or fees levied during the temporary period; parties working to clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days, after which the median lane would be used for inbound and outbound traffic under a permanent arrangement to be negotiated between Oman and Iran; the deal aimed at resuming the US–Iran ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations, with Trump having decided on Saturday not to proceed with a bombing campaign to allow more time for diplomacy); Al Jazeera, Iran, Oman, US “close” to Hormuz deal: What do they all want? (August 5: Trump says talks are “moving along very nicely” and a deal could come within 48 hours; the dispute centres on who controls the Strait and whether Iran may impose fees; Iran seeks joint management with Oman based on territorial waters and maritime service fees for navigational assistance and environmental protection, and has dropped demands for full bidirectional control; the US demands unrestricted commercial navigation without Iranian approval or tolls, with Trump saying “I’m not going to let them charge”; only 8 vessels transited Monday against roughly 130 daily before the escalation); The National, New preliminary agreement being drafted as US and Iran seek Hormuz breakthrough, Pakistani source says (August 5: a revised preliminary agreement in an advanced stage with Pakistan mediating and Qatar and Oman assisting; the updated memorandum builds on a June 17 framework that collapsed after Iranian attacks on oil tankers; interim 60-day arrangement with northbound traffic through Iranian waters, southbound through Omani waters, no tolls or fees, mine clearing from the median lane within 30 days and a potential future “middle corridor”; unresolved items include Iran’s toll proposal rejected by Gulf states and the US, sea-lane protection specifications, Iranian concerns over US military threats, and unresolved Houthi Red Sea attacks; Trump: “We’ll know in 48 hours”); Euronews and Irish Times reporting of Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei (August 5: Iran and Oman finalized the geographical coordinates of a proposed shipping route on Wednesday; a joint statement from Tehran and Muscat is under review and in the final drafting stage; the two countries reaffirm commitment to safe passage in line with international law while emphasising sovereignty and sovereign rights over their territorial waters, and agreed to maintain dialogue through a joint working group between their foreign ministries on the future administration of navigation, the services to be provided and associated costs in accordance with international standards; any new agreement would not by itself ensure safe passage while the US maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports); CNN analysis, An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape — but not one Trump wants (August 5); S&P Global Commodity Insights, Aluminum price falls on US-Iran deal but supply normalization to take time (June 16: LME spot aluminum fell to $3,418/mt on June 15, the lowest since mid-March, from a year-to-date peak of $3,854/mt on June 2, roughly 11% off the 2026 peak, as the conflict premium began unwinding on the interim US–Iran framework); Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (the June 17 Trump–Pezeshkian memorandum to end hostilities; the interim truce breaking down on July 8 after Iran struck multiple commercial ships; Iranian attacks on tankers in early-to-mid July killing at least 2 seafarers and injuring 8; the crisis described as the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 1970s, with aluminum, fertilizer and helium among the affected commodities); CME FedWatch (August 4 caliber: 61.9% probability of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting; July 28 caliber previously carried: 54.4% probability of a 25bp cut in September); centralbank.watch (Fed funds 3.63%); US economic calendar (July nonfarm payrolls due Friday August 7, consensus roughly +80,000 to +88,000 after 57,000, unemployment 4.2–4.3%); carried unchanged from the August 4–5 briefs: China aluminum ingot social inventory 958,000 mt, +5,000 mt w/w and −21,000 mt y/y; LME stocks 271,275 mt on July 24 with on-warrant 245,350 mt and a 267,800 mt alternative caliber; SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants 17,553 mt on August 3, −118 mt; alumina AO2609 2,621 on July 31 with industry average full cost about 2,530, expected band 2,600–2,650 and a possible break below 2,600 in August; bauxite $70–75/mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w; nearly 3 Mt of new South China alumina capacity planned; ADC12 −100 yuan/mt; leading downstream processors’ operating rate 61.1% (−0.2 pt, week of July 25) with extrusion 52.9%, primary alloy 59.0%, secondary aluminum 50.8%, wire and cable 63.6%, plate/sheet/strip 69.4% and foil 70.9%; June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; SMM’s 2026 ex-China commissioned operating capacity estimate of 2.32 Mt, raised 67.8% from 1.38 Mt; Indonesia’s 2026 operating capacity of about 2.51 Mt against roughly 870,000 mt in 2025; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2; July ex-China output −6.7% y/y with daily average +1.6% m/m; war-risk marine insurance at 3–10% of hull value. Data calibers: the August 5 LME print exists in two irreconcilable calibers — SMM/AlCircle’s $3,211 close at −0.20% and TradingEconomics’ $3,249.65 at +0.89% against a $3,221.00 previous close — a gap of $38.65 or about 1.2%; both are carried and neither is adopted; yesterday’s A00 date ambiguity is now resolved arithmetically rather than by adjudication: 23,500 + 230 = 23,730 confirms 23,500 as the August 4 print and 23,730 as the August 5 print; SHFE volume and open interest for August 5 do not appear in the sources consulted; the July 30 caliber of 267,105 lots and 253,776 lots of open interest is four sessions stale and is not quoted as current; the −9,500 mt and −2,000 mt major-consumption-area inventory figures come from two different August 5 SMM-sourced reports and refer to different sessions; both are recorded with that distinction rather than netted; July’s 54,800 mt average weekly drawdown is a net social-inventory change and is not the same measure as the previously quoted 127,700 mt weekly warehouse withdrawals; LME stocks remain the July 24 report and have not updated for a twelfth consecutive trading day; September Fed pricing carries a widened directional conflict (a 61.9% hike caliber against a 54.4% cut caliber) and conflicting meeting dates of September 10 and September 17 appear in sources; no rate figure is adopted and the meeting date remains the previously recorded September 16 with the conflict flagged; downstream operating rates are the week-of-July-25 caliber and are two weeks stale; alumina, ADC12, LME stocks and the weekly social-inventory series all carry no new print this session and are labeled as carried; the joint Oman–Iran statement published on Oman’s foreign ministry site is dated 23 June 2026 and is a separate, earlier document from the August 5 statement described as still in final drafting; the two are not conflated here; the interim terms, mine-clearing timetable, transit counts, the Houthi tanker claim and war-risk insurance levels are media and industry calibers, not official confirmations; as of writing no joint statement text has been published, no interim agreement has been signed or announced, and no mine clearing or blockade lifting has been reported — the officials’ remarks are recorded as public statements that have occurred, not as settled facts, and their aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout.

Disclaimer: This brief is for internal reference only. It is compiled from publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice or a basis for any trading decision. Data may be delayed or contain errors; exchange and official releases prevail. Users should form their own judgment and bear their own decision risk.