Aug 9, 2026 · Weekend: The missing August 7 print shows SHFE up 145 before payrolls. LME stocks break their freeze with a 16% drop.

一 · 行情表现

新增确认:8月7日沪铝印记已找到——昨日简报的最大空洞已填补

沪铝 AL2609(8月7日):开 **23,875,最高 24,130,最低 23,835,均价 23,982.48,收 23,980,较 8月6日结算价 23,835 上涨 145 元(+0.61%)。**
成交量 **151,302 手;持仓量 241,543 手,日增 1,787 手。**
夜盘开盘(北京时间 8月6日 21:00,属 8月7日交易日):AL2608 开 23,815(较结算 +10)、AL2609 开 23,875(+40)、AL2610 开 23,880(+40)。
本简报必须指出的时间点,这也是本期分析的核心:沪铝日盘 15:00 收市,而美国非农于北京时间 20:30 公布。 也就是说,沪铝这 145 元的涨幅,全部发生在本月最大宏观事件公布之前 5.5 小时。
仍然缺失的一段:8月7日 21:00 开盘的周五夜盘(属 8月10日交易日)在所查来源中仍无印记** ⊘。这才是国内盘面对非农的首次定价,依旧未被观测。
均线仍为 8月6日口径,滞后一个交易日:MA5 23,740、MA10 23,542、MA30 23,191.33、MA60 23,741。 8月7日收盘高于 MA60 达 **239 元(约 +1.01%),为连续第二个交易日收于其上。**
MACD(8月6日口径):DIF 93.4473 高于 DEA −3.5285,红柱 193.9515。
核心区间 23,500–24,100:8月7日高点 24,130 上穿区间上沿 30 元,收盘 23,980 回落至上沿之下 120 元。
持仓量的横向比较必须给出:241,543 手对 7月30日口径的 253,776 手,减少 12,233 手(−4.82%);而同期收盘价由 7月29日的 23,480 上行至 23,980,约 **+2.13%。**

确认:伦铝 8月7日

口径一(TradingEconomics):收 **3,276.50 美元,+7.05 美元(+0.22%),前收 3,269.45 美元;月 +4.31%、年 +25.26%。**
TE 预测已较昨日上修:三季度 3,309.69 美元(原 3,231.49)、十二个月 3,507.82 美元(原 3,421.47)。
口径二:3,273 美元,+0.11%。 两者并列。
SMM 口径(延续,标注滞后):收 3,253.00 美元,开 3,245,区间 3,233–3,256;MA5 3,227.70、MA10 3,199.45、MA30 3,164.40、MA60 3,349.41;MACD DIF −6.0545 高于 DEA −25.1982,红柱 38.2874;核心区间 3,200–3,350 美元。
相对 MA60(3,349.41):8月7日收盘低 72.91 美元,−2.18%,较 8月6日的 −2.88% 继续修复。
口径剔除:所查来源中出现“8月8日 3,280.00 美元”的报价。 8月8日为非交易日,不予采用** ⊘。**

解读:昨日的结论需要被重新表述,而不是被确认

昨日本简报的核心论断是“铝对最利多的宏观数据几乎无反应”,该论断建立在“无 8月7日沪铝印记”这一空洞之上。 印记找到后,正确的表述发生了变化。
准确的对照是:在完全没有非农输入的情况下,国内盘面上涨 0.61%;而真正交易了非农的外盘,上涨 0.22%。
这不是削弱昨日的“严苛解释”,而是以更好的理由强化了它:铝的定价权重已经明显偏向国内的可交割金属稀缺,而非美元与利率路径。 国内的涨幅不需要宏观就能产生,外盘拿到宏观也涨不动。
但必须同时给出三条克制,且分量不轻于上述利多。
第一,区间上沿首次测试即被拒绝:24,130 上穿 24,100 仅 30 元,收盘回落至其下 120 元。 一次失败的触碰不是突破。
第二,增价减仓:持仓较 7月30日减少 12,233 手(−4.82%),而价格上行约 2.13%。 这一形态最自然的读法是空头回补而非多头新增(此为解读,非事实),其含义是本轮上行的燃料是有限的。
第三,收盘 23,980 距核心区间上沿仅 120 元、距 MA60 已有 239 元。 位置判断:处于本轮反弹的高位区,且已进入阻力区,而非支撑区。
内外盘分叉继续:沪铝在 MA60 之上 1.01%,伦铝在其下 2.18%。 分叉方向不变,幅度较昨日略微收敛。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

确认与新增

SMM A00 / 上海现货铝锭:8月7日印记在所查来源中未见** ⊘。8月6日存在两个冲突口径,均予并列:SMM A00 23,690 元/吨(−40);另一口径(再生铝周度报告内部使用)华东 A00 23,800 元/吨,较上周四 +170。** 两者相差 110 元,本简报不作调和,亦不取其一。
华东现货升贴水(8月6日):SMM 日评“贴水 10 元至平水”;另一口径“升水 8–20 元”(8月5日为 8–40 元)。
华中(8月6日):对 08 合约贴水 170–200 元 / 190–210 元,两个口径并列。
华南:结构性升水中枢较往年同期抬升 60–100 元/吨(延续)。
LME 铝:3,276.50 美元,+7.05(+0.22%)** ↑(TE);3,273 美元,+0.11% ↑(另一口径)。
ADC12(本期新增确认印记):24,200 元/吨(8月6日),周环比持平** →;8月7日现货报价上调 50 元/吨 ↑。**
ADC12 海外报盘 **3,050–3,190 美元/吨;进口亏损约 800 元/吨(8月6日)/ 827 元/吨(8月7日),进口窗口关闭。**
铸造铝合金期货 AD2610(8月7日):开 23,440,区间 23,420–23,545,午盘收 23,520,+55(+0.23%),成交 6,114 手,持仓 18,342 手(+307)。 注:此为午盘口径,非全日收盘。
佛山废铝价差(8月6日口径,已更新):A00 与破碎生铝 **2,240 元/吨(8月5日 2,130,+110);A00 与精废 1,030 元/吨(8月5日 930,+100)。** 下周精废预期 20,200–20,800 元/吨。
氧化铝:8月7日出现 **2,698,−0.11% 的价格印记,但来源未说明其为期货合约还是现货指数口径,故加注保留记录,不替代 AO2609 2,621(7月31日)。** 两者并列。
原油:Brent 8月7日 83.55 美元,日 +1.29%(TE 口径已修订,昨日本简报记录为 82.27 美元、−0.27%);月 +7.09%、年 +25.47%;三季度预测 85.58 美元、十二个月预测 98.20 美元。 周跌超过 7% 不变。 WTI 76.99–78.16 美元(口径并列)。
美元指数:99.539,−0.3910(−0.39%)(TE 口径已修订);月 −1.44%、年 +1.38%;三季度预测下调至 99.28、十二个月预测下调至 97.76(原 99.614)。 另carried:99.43(−0.5%,路透)、99.604(−0.33%,TE 早前快照)。 三口径一致指向两个月低位。

解读

本节最值得记录的是两条自我更正,均不作辩解。
更正一(原油):Brent 8月7日是上涨 1.29%,不是下跌 0.27%。 周跌 7% 以上的结论不受影响,昨日撤回“溢价已回补”的表述在周度层面依然成立;但日内方向记反了,在此更正。
更正二(氧化铝):2,698 这一印记的口径不明,若其为期货口径,则较 7月31日的 2,621 上行 77 元,方向与本简报此前“氧化铝中期成本下移”的判断相反;在口径确认之前,不据此调整任何结论。
ADC12 是本期恢复的一条完整链路:24,200 元持平、进口窗口关闭、进口亏损约 800 元——说明再生铝一侧的成本支撑存在,但需求未能把价格推高。
废铝价差同时走阔(破碎生铝 +110、精废 +100)是一条被低估的印证:原铝相对废铝在变贵,与“可流通铝锭收缩”的机制方向一致。
TE 将伦铝三季度与十二个月预测同步上修(3,309.69 / 3,507.82 美元),同时将美元十二个月预测由 99.614 下调至 97.76——两条外部预测同向,构成估值端的中期利多,但预测不是数据,权重应低于价格与库存。

三 · 库存

重大更新:LME 库存停更十五个交易日后终于刷新

LME 铝库存:8月7日 256,400 吨,三十日内下降 16.0%,已连续 29 个交易日下降;三十日区间 256,400–305,200 吨。
较 7月24日口径的 271,275 吨,再减 14,875 吨(−5.48%)。 注册可用量无新口径,沿用 7月24日的 245,350 吨。
上期所铝期货仓单(8月7日):307,008 吨,日减 1,795 吨、周减 13,216 吨(−4.13%)、月减 87,020 吨(−22.08%)。
国内铝锭社会库存:93.3 万吨(8月6日周四口径),较 95.8 万吨减 2.5 万吨(同源同时记录为环比月减 2.5 万吨、周减 2.0 万吨)。 本期无新印记,下一次周度印记为 8月10日(周一)。
中国铸造铝合金锭社会库存:2.4 万吨,连续第十周去库,但本周仅减 200 吨(近乎停滞)。
上期所铸造铝合金仓单:17,553 吨(8月3日,延续)。
7 月周均去库 54,800 吨/周,为近三年同期最高(延续);SMM 展望 2026 年下半年社会库存有可能回落至 80 万吨以下(延续)。
全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨);港口铝土矿 94 万吨(延续)。

解读:两个交易所的可交割库存同时收缩,这是本期最硬的一组证据

本简报此前多次提示:“本世纪最低”的表述因序列停更而作为当期证据在衰减。 该序列已更新,且朝正确方向衰减:256,400 吨、月降 16.0%、连续 29 个交易日下降。
与上期所仓单月减 22.08% 并置,结论是:中国与伦敦的可交割库存在同时收缩。 两者由不同机构、不同规则核验,互相独立,因而互证力强于任何单一序列。
但必须保留昨日给出的机制克制,且该克制今日得到了数据支持:仓单/库存下降既可来自消费,也可来自注销转入社会流通或交仓意愿下降。 今日新增的产量数据恰好指向后者的结构性版本——铸锭少了,而不是消费多了(见第五节)。
社会库存本期无新印记,且降幅在 7 月已被 SMM 自身描述为放缓;铸造铝合金锭本周仅减 200 吨,接近停滞。 这两条限制了库存叙事的强度。
本节净判定:明确利多,且为本期强度最高的一栏;但其性质仍是“支撑价格”,而非“推动价格”。

四 · 宏观因素

确认:7 月非农(延续,数据本身无变化)

美国 7 月非农就业减少 2.3 万人,预期约 +8.0 万(路透)至 +8.3 万(WSJ),FactSet 预测 +9.75 万。
5、6 月合计下修 **10.3 万人(6 月 +5.7 万→+2.0 万,5 月 +12.9 万→+6.3 万);过去十二个月月均仅 +3.4 万。**
失业率 4.1%(前值 4.2%),但劳动参与率 61.4%,五年多最低。
平均时薪 37.62 美元,同比 **+3.2%,2021 年 5 月以来最慢。**
私营部门 **+3.0 万,政府部门 −5.3 万(主因季节性)。**

新增:更干净的 CME FedWatch 口径,可以调和昨日的三方分歧

9 月按兵不动概率:周五(8月7日)60%,周四 45%,一周前约三分之一。 对应加息概率约 **40% / 55% / 约 67%。**
该口径的价值在于它给出了同一序列的三个时点,因此比昨日并列的三个来源更可用。
昨日并列的口径继续保留:路透 55%→40%;CNBC 57%→43.9%(按兵不动由 43.2% 升至 60.4%);第三口径约 55%→约 20%(对照 7 月下旬 82%)。 其中 **20% 一档应视为四个口径中最弱的一个。**
美债:2 年期 −8bp 至 4.16%;10 年期 −6bp 至 4.61%。
美元指数(TE 口径已修订):99.539,−0.3910(−0.39%);月 −1.44%、年 +1.38%;三季度预测 99.28、十二个月预测 97.76(由 99.614 下调)。
下一个美国事件:8月12日 7 月 CPI。 背景:联储 7月29日以 9–3 维持 3.50%–3.75%,为 2016 年以来分歧最大。

新增且重要:霍尔木兹——真正的日程风险不是联合声明,而是免费通行窗口到期

《The National》8月8日报道:当前船舶通行霍尔木兹是免费的,依据为 **6月17日美伊备忘录所设定的 60 天谈判窗口——该窗口于 8月16日前后到期。**
海峡本身仍被描述为基本处于封闭状态(mostly closed to circulation)。
核心未决问题是费用:伊朗要求约相当于货值 5% 的通行费,美国拒绝支付任何费用。 另一表述为伊朗将收取“服务费”(covering environmental effects and security)而非正式通行费。
拟议机制:伊朗协调进入阿拉伯湾的船舶,阿曼负责驶出的船舶。
伊朗议会人士 Hassan Ghashghavi:总体框架已达成,但最终细节仍需更高层级批准。
美方尚未评估该框架是否履行了德黑兰的承诺,并将在签署最终备忘录之前完成评估。
联合声明(涵盖技术、法律、安全、环境)仍在最终审阅中,伊方以“某些第三方不加阻挠”为条件;双方外交部将设联合工作组处理未来航行管理及其服务与成本。
截至 8月9日,所查来源中联合声明文本仍未公布** ⊘。**

确认:能源与中国宏观

Brent 8月7日 **83.55 美元,+1.29%(TE 修订口径);周跌仍超过 7%;月 +7.09%、年 +25.47%。**
OPEC+ 核心七国自 9 月起增产 **18.8 万桶/日,连续第六个月,完成 2023 年自愿减产全部回撤。** 供应侧利空。
胡塞武装 8月7日袭击沙特南部致 **11 名平民受伤,维持红海封锁与曼德海峡油轮攻击。** 地缘侧利多。
中国 7 月出口(美元计价)同比 **+23%,高于 +22.2% 预期,但较 6 月 +27% 放缓;贸易顺差 1,125 亿美元。**
NBS 与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 **49.2;6 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 71.1 万吨(+45.4% y/y),上半年累计 339.6 万吨(+16.3%)。**
新增:6 月中国铝型材出口创月度历史新高,同比 +29.7%;6 月原铝进口约 **16.7 万吨,环比 −19.7%、同比 −13.1%。**

解读:宏观栏的权重应当下调,而地缘栏的时间轴应当前移

昨日已确认:铝对最利多的宏观数据反应极小。 今日新增的沪铝印记进一步说明,国内涨幅根本不需要宏观输入。 因此本简报正式将宏观由“主驱动”下调为“背景变量”,除非 8月12日 CPI 出现极端读数。
需要给出的克制:定价的移动方向是“由加息转向按兵不动”,不是“由按兵不动转向降息”;9 月加息概率仍有约 40%。 这是移除了一项逆风,而非新增一项顺风。
失业率下降来自参与率跌至 61.4%,而非就业改善——对工业金属而言,这是终端需求走弱的信号。
地缘一侧的表述必须更新。 过去三周市场定价的是“协议是否会到来”;而 8月8日披露的事实把问题前移为:在费用问题未解决的情况下,免费通行窗口于 8月16日前后到期会发生什么。
这一日程点落在未来七个交易日之内,早于任何联合声明的可能发布时点,因此其可交易性高于联合声明本身。
必须同时说明其双向性:窗口到期既可能触发延期(中性)、也可能触发费用开征(对海湾铝出口成本利多)或谈判破裂(对供应利多、对风险偏好利空)。 本简报不预设方向,仅指出该日期是当前地缘栏中最硬的一个时间锚。

五 · 基本面

本期最重要的新增数据:SMM 7 月产量——机制首次被量化

中国电解铝 7 月产量(31 天):同比 +1.6%,环比 +3.5%。
铝水比例:7 月 78.3%,较 6 月上升 1.1 个百分点;8 月预计 78.5%,再升 0.2 个百分点。
铸锭产量:7 月同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%。
建成产能:7 月末约 **4,629 万吨,环比持平;运行产能 4,531 万吨(6 月口径)。**

确认:境外供应

7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%,日均产量环比 +1.6%;SMM 归因于中东与冰岛冶炼厂复产,以及印尼、越南项目爬产。
EGA Al Taweelah:截至 7月2日,1,262 槽中已重启 **89 槽;阳极清除全部完成,槽体清理约 90% 完成,超过 20% 的槽已清除凝固铝块。**
延续:斯洛伐克 Slovalco 四季度重启;印尼 2026 年运行产能约 251 万吨;SMM 2026 年中国以外计划投产运行产能 232 万吨;美铝 2026 年氧化铝指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨(未标注日期)。

氧化铝与成本

8月7日印记 2,698(−0.11%),口径未确认;AO2609 2,621(7月31日)继续并列。
行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;SMM 预期区间 2,600–2,650 元,8 月可能短暂跌破 2,600。
海外:8月5日 3 万吨成交于 356 美元/吨 FOB 东澳,9 月装船;铝土矿 70–75 美元/吨。
新增:2026 年上半年中国氧化铝进口 **227.7 万吨,同比 +749.1%;国内产量扩张与库存上升被描述为形成过剩,预期氧化铝价格维持区间震荡。**

下游需求(延续,方向未变)

铝加工开工率 **60.1%,且处于下行;SMM 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个板块全部收缩。**
分板块(7月25日当周):型材 52.9%、原生合金 59.0%、再生铝 50.8%、线缆 63.6%、板带 69.4%、铝箔 70.9%。
新增:再生铝开工率 **49.4%,环比持平(与上述 50.8% 为不同口径,并列记录)。**
光伏组件排产 7 月 38.5 GW → 8 月 39.3 GW;6 月板带出口 +44% y/y、铝箔出口 +23.8% y/y;6 月铝型材出口创月度新高 +29.7% y/y。

解读:一句话概括本期基本面——中国在生产更多的铝,和更少的铝锭

本简报连续四天使用过一个机制:铝水比例上升 → 铸锭减少 → 可流通商品铝锭结构性收缩。 此前它是推论,今日它是测量值:总产量 +1.6% y/y,铸锭产量 −15.1% y/y。
这条数据的价值在于它同时支持了本简报的多头与空头两侧,且必须两侧都讲:
多头侧:可交割形态的金属确实在减少,这解释了两个交易所库存的同步收缩,也解释了基差、区域价差与废铝价差的走强。
空头侧:中国的电解铝总产量在增加,不是在减少。 一旦下游对铝水的直接消化能力下降(例如淡季结束后加工利润修复不及预期,或铝水就地转化比例见顶),铸锭会迅速回补,库存收缩的机制随即减弱。 8 月铝水比例的边际增幅已由 7 月的 +1.1 个百分点降至预期的 +0.2 个百分点——这条边际减速是本期最值得关注的早期信号。
境外一侧的边际同样转向供应增加:日均产量环比 +1.6%,归因于中东与冰岛复产及印尼越南爬产。 同比 −6.7% 仍成立,但同比是存量、环比是边际,当前边际方向是增产。
氧化铝一侧因口径不明而无法定论;但上半年进口同比 +749.1% 与“国内过剩”的描述同向,中期成本下移的判断暂不修改,权重维持在最低。
需求一侧本期新增一条同向读数(再生铝开工 49.4%),使连续同向读数增至五条。 在这种一致性下,任何把库存收缩解释为需求改善的说法都缺乏依据。

六 · 原铝现货市场

状态:8月7日原铝现货仍无印记;8月6日存在口径冲突

SMM A00(8月6日):23,690 元/吨,−40** ↓(口径一)。** 另一口径:华东 A00 **23,800 元/吨,较上周四 +170 ↑。** 两者相差 110 元,并列记录,不作调和。
8月7日 A00 印记在所查来源中未见 ⊘。
华东升贴水(8月6日):SMM 日评“贴水 10 元至平水”;另一口径“升水 8–20 元”(8月5日 8–40 元)。
华中(8月6日):对 08 合约贴水 170–200 元 / 190–210 元,成交呈走强趋势。
华东情绪指数(8月6日):出货意愿 3.10(+0.01),采购意愿 2.86(+0.06)。
华中情绪指数:出货 2.99(−0.2)/ 采购 2.94(+0.03) 对出货 3.20(持平)/ 采购 2.91(+0.06)。 冲突连续第三期未解决,不据此计算日环比 ⊘。
佛山废铝价差(8月6日,已更新):A00 与破碎生铝 **2,240 元/吨(+110);A00 与精废 1,030 元/吨(+100)。**
SMM 8月6日日评(延续):现货价格小幅回落但市场具韧性,到货偏紧叠加去库趋势未变;多数持货商重拾挺价信心、出货放缓;下游按需采购、追高意愿有限;贸易商在贴水位置采购积极性提升。

解读

本节最有信息量的一条不是价格,而是价差:废铝两条价差同步走阔 100–110 元,说明原铝相对废铝在变贵。 这与“可交割铝锭收缩”的机制方向一致,且属于现货端的独立证据,不依赖期货。
但同一时点上,华东报价仍在贴水至平水、华中贴水仍在 170–210 元。 两者并存的含义是:结构性紧张体现在价差上,尚未体现在绝对升水上。 本简报此前的方法论判断继续成立:该机制对基差与区域价差的支撑强于对绝对价格的支撑。
A00 的口径冲突(23,690 对 23,800)必须保留而非消除。 在冲突解决之前,不对现货的日环比方向下任何结论。
需要指出的时序风险与昨日相同,且尚未被解答:8月7日盘面上涨 145 元,而当日现货完全未被观测。 若周一现货以更深贴水开出,则说明期货的上行未获现货确认;若贴水收窄或转升水,则第三节的库存叙事获得现货端背书。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(12 项)

沪铝 8月7日收 23,980、涨 145(+0.61%),为连续第二个交易日收于 MA60(23,741)之上,高出 239 元。
该涨幅完全发生在非农公布之前,说明国内定价不依赖宏观输入即可上行。
LME 库存 **256,400 吨(8月7日),月降 16.0%,连续 29 个交易日下降——停更十五个交易日的序列刷新,方向明确。**
上期所仓单 **307,008 吨,月减 87,020 吨(−22.08%),周减 4.13%。** 两个交易所可交割库存同时收缩。
7 月铸锭产量 **同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%——本简报追踪四天的稀缺机制首次被量化。**
铝水比例 7 月 **78.3%(+1.1pp)、8 月预计 78.5%。**
社会库存 93.3 万吨(8月6日,−2.5 万吨);7 月周均去库 54,800 吨,近三年同期最高。
非农 −2.3 万人、两月下修 10.3 万人、时薪 +3.2%(2021 年 5 月以来最慢)——9 月加息概率降至约 40%。
美元指数 99.539(−0.39%),两个月低位;TE 将美元十二个月预测由 99.614 下调至 **97.76。**
TE 将伦铝三季度预测上修至 **3,309.69 美元、十二个月预测上修至 3,507.82 美元。**
霍尔木兹:免费通行窗口于 8月16日前后到期而费用问题未决(伊朗要求约货值 5%,美国拒绝);海峡仍“基本封闭”;联合声明仍未公布。
佛山废铝价差同步走阔(破碎生铝 +110 至 2,240,精废 +100 至 1,030);胡塞 8月7日袭击沙特南部致 11 人受伤,红海封锁维持。

利空因素(10 项)

伦铝在最利多的宏观数据当日仅 **+0.22%——真正交易了该数据的市场几乎没有反应。**
增价减仓:持仓 241,543 手较 7月30日的 253,776 手减少 **12,233 手(−4.82%),而价格同期上行约 2.13%——最自然的读法是空头回补而非多头新增。**
核心区间上沿首次测试即被拒绝:高点 24,130 上穿 24,100 仅 30 元,收盘回落至其下 120 元。
中国 7 月电解铝总产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%——产的铝更多了,减少的只是铸锭形态。
8 月铝水比例的边际增幅由 7 月的 +1.1 个百分点降至预期 +0.2 个百分点——稀缺机制的边际动能在减速。
需求端第五条同向读数:加工开工率 60.1% 且下行、加工 PMI 42.2(七板块全收缩)、再生铝开工 49.4%、ADC12 周环比持平、进口窗口关闭(亏损约 800 元)。
境外边际转向增产:7 月中国以外日均产量环比 **+1.6%,归因于中东、冰岛复产与印尼越南爬产;Slovalco 四季度重启;EGA 持续复产。**
氧化铝上半年进口 227.7 万吨(同比 +749.1%),国内产量扩张与库存上升被描述为过剩;若 8月7日的 2,698 为期货口径,则成本端方向存在反向风险(口径未确认)。
OPEC+ 自 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日,连续第六个月,完成 2023 年自愿减产全部回撤——能源成本支撑继续削弱。
现货未确认:8月6日华东仍在贴水至平水、华中贴水 170–210 元;A00 存在 23,690 与 23,800 的口径冲突;8月7日现货完全无印记;铸造铝合金锭本周仅去库 200 吨,接近停滞。

八 · 一句话观点

昨日简报的空洞已被填补,且填补的结果改变了结论的表述方式而非确认它:沪铝 AL2609 8月7日开 23,875、盘中 23,835–24,130、收 23,980,涨 145 元(+0.61%),成交 151,302 手、持仓 241,543 手,而沪铝日盘 15:00 收市、非农 20:30 公布——这 0.61% 全部产生于本月最大宏观事件之前 5.5 小时,因此准确的表述不是“铝无视了利多宏观”,而是“国内盘面在毫无宏观输入的情况下上涨 0.61%,而真正交易了非农的外盘只上涨 0.22%”,这以更好的理由强化了昨日的“严苛解释”:铝的定价权重已明显偏向国内可交割金属的稀缺,而非美元与利率路径;支撑它的证据今日首次被量化——SMM 7 月产量显示中国电解铝总产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%,而铸锭产量同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%,铝水比例 7 月 78.3%(+1.1pp)、8 月预计 78.5%,一句话概括即中国在生产更多的铝,和更少的铝锭;交易所序列在全球两端同步互证,且其中一条终于刷新——LME 库存 8月7日 256,400 吨,三十日降 16.0%,连续 29 个交易日下降,较 7月24日的 271,275 吨再减 14,875 吨(−5.48%),与上期所仓单 307,008 吨、月减 22.08%** 并列,构成本期强度最高的一栏;但必须以同等分量给出三条克制:其一,核心区间上沿 24,100 首次测试即被拒绝(高点 24,130 仅上穿 30 元,收盘回落至其下 120 元);其二,持仓 241,543 手较 7月30日减少 12,233 手(−4.82%)而价格上行约 2.13%,增价减仓最自然的读法是空头回补而非多头新增(此为解读);其三,需求端已有第五条同向读数,且中国总产量在增加、8 月铝水比例的边际增幅由 +1.1 个百分点降至预期 +0.2 个百分点,稀缺机制的边际动能正在减速;本期另有两条自我更正,均不辩解:原油方面,TE 修订后 Brent 8月7日为 83.55 美元、日涨 1.29%,而非昨日记录的 82.27 美元、日跌 0.27%(周跌逾 7% 不变,昨日撤回“溢价回补”的结论在周度层面依然成立);利率方面,更干净的 FedWatch 口径显示 9 月按兵不动概率为周五 60%、周四 45%、一周前约三分之一,对应加息约 40% / 55% / 67%,昨日并列的“约 20%”一档应视为四个口径中最弱者;而本期最具可操作性的新事实根本不是价格——当前船舶通行霍尔木兹是免费的,依据是 6月17日美伊备忘录设定的 60 天谈判窗口,该窗口于 8月16日前后到期,而费用问题仍未解决(伊朗要求约货值 5%,美国拒绝支付任何费用),海峡本身仍被描述为基本封闭,这把地缘栏的问题由“协议是否会到来”前移为“在费用未决的情况下,免费窗口到期会发生什么”,且该日期落在未来七个交易日之内,早于任何联合声明的可能发布时点;因此周一的可证伪问题有三条且互不重叠:沪铝在 24,100 的第二次测试能否收在其上、持仓能否随价格同步回升(而非继续下降)、以及现货能否把 8月7日的 145 元涨幅确认为贴水收窄而非扩大。**

九 · 周一开盘及夜盘关注清单

8月7日周五夜盘的补记——仍是本简报唯一完全未观测的关键变量: 该夜盘于北京时间 8月7日 21:00 开盘、即非农公布后 30 分钟,属 8月10日交易日。 它是国内盘面对非农的首次定价,而 8月7日日盘的 +0.61% 与之无关。 关注两个互斥结果:夜盘跳空上行并守住,说明宏观通道对内盘仍然畅通;夜盘平淡或高开低走,则内盘复制了伦铝的迟钝,铝的驱动应正式归类为“非宏观”。
24,100 的第二次测试——本轮最直接的技术分水岭: 8月7日高点 24,130 上穿核心区间上沿仅 30 元,收盘 23,980 回落至其下 120 元,首次测试失败。 关注周一能否收盘站上 24,100;站上则区间上沿转为支撑,上方看 24,150;再度失败则形成双重顶形态,下方验证位依次为 23,835(8月7日低点)、23,741(MA60)、23,542(MA10)。
持仓量能否随价格同步回升——判断“空头回补”与“多头新增”的唯一方法: 8月7日持仓 241,543 手,较 7月30日的 253,776 手减少 12,233 手(−4.82%),而价格上行约 2.13%。 关注周一价格上行时持仓是否同步增加:同步增加则本轮上行具备新增多头支撑,继续背离则本轮上行的燃料有限,这将直接影响对 24,100 突破有效性的判断。
8月16日前后的霍尔木兹免费通行窗口到期——本期新增的最硬时间锚: 依据 6月17日美伊备忘录,60 天谈判窗口于 8月16日前后到期,而费用问题未决(伊朗要求约货值 5%,美国拒绝)。 关注三项可证伪节点:窗口是否被延期;是否有任何费用机制被公布;以及海峡“基本封闭”的状态是否发生变化。 本简报不预设方向,但指出该日期的可交易性高于联合声明本身。
8月12日美国 7 月 CPI: 非农已把 9 月按兵不动概率推至 60%(加息约 40%),CPI 是决定该概率继续上行还是回补的直接输入。 时薪同比已降至 3.2%(2021 年 5 月以来最慢);若 CPI 同向走弱,“加息”一栏可能被基本移除;若反弹,则周五的定价将被部分回吐。 但请注意本期第四节的结论:宏观栏的权重已被下调为背景变量,除非 CPI 出现极端读数。
8月10日(周一)社会库存周度印记,以及两个交易所库存能否同步续降: 社会库存 93.3 万吨(8月6日),上期所仓单 307,008 吨(月减 22.08%),LME 库存 256,400 吨(月降 16.0%、连续 29 日下降)。 关注三者能否同向。 若仓单继续减而社会库存回升,则说明仓单下降来自注销转入社会流通而非消费,应下调本期的库存利多判断。
现货能否确认 8月7日的 145 元涨幅: 8月6日 A00 存在 23,690 与 23,800 两个口径,华东贴水 10 元至平水,华中贴水 170–210 元,8月7日无印记。 关注周一华东报价能否转为升水、华中贴水能否收窄、以及佛山废铝价差(2,240 / 1,030)能否继续走阔。 价差继续走阔而绝对升水不动,仍将指向“结构性紧张体现在价差而非价格”。
氧化铝口径的确认,以及成本端方向: 8月7日出现 2,698(−0.11%)的印记但口径未明(期货或现货指数),AO2609 的最后确认印记仍为 7月31日的 2,621。 关注周一能否取得明确口径。 若 2,698 属期货口径,则较 2,621 上行 77 元,与本简报“中期成本下移”的判断相反,需相应上调成本支撑一栏;在口径确认之前不作调整。

1 · Market Performance

New and confirmed: the August 7 SHFE print has been recovered — yesterday’s largest gap is closed

SHFE AL2609 (August 7): open **23,875, high 24,130, low 23,835, average 23,982.48, close 23,980, up 145 yuan (+0.61%) against the August 6 settlement of 23,835.**
Volume **151,302 lots; open interest 241,543 lots, +1,787.**
Night-session open (21:00 Beijing on August 6, the start of the August 7 trading day): AL2608 at 23,815 (+10 on settlement), **AL2609 at 23,875 (+40), AL2610 at 23,880 (+40).**
The timing point, which is the analytical core of this brief: **the SHFE day session closes at 15:00 Beijing and the US payrolls release was 20:30 Beijing.** Every yuan of that 145-point gain was earned five and a half hours BEFORE the largest macro event of the month.
What is still missing: **the Friday night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 7 (part of the August 10 trading day) does not appear in the sources consulted ⊘. That is the domestic board’s first pricing of payrolls, and it remains unobserved.
Moving averages remain the August 6 caliber and are one session stale: MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741. The August 7 close sits **239 above MA60, about +1.01%, a second consecutive close above it.**
MACD (August 6 caliber): DIF 93.4473 above DEA −3.5285, histogram 193.9515.
Core range 23,500–24,100: **the August 7 high of 24,130 exceeded the top by 30 and the close finished 120 beneath it.**
The open-interest comparison has to be stated: **241,543 lots against the July 30 caliber of 253,776, a decline of 12,233 lots (−4.82%), while the close rose from 23,480 on July 29 to 23,980, about +2.13%.**

Confirmed: LME on August 7

Caliber one (TradingEconomics): close **$3,276.50, +$7.05 (+0.22%) against a previous close of $3,269.45; month +4.31%, year +25.26%.**
TE’s forecasts have been revised UP since yesterday: **Q3 $3,309.69 (from $3,231.49) and 12-month $3,507.82 (from $3,421.47).**
Caliber two: $3,273, +0.11%. Both are carried.
SMM caliber (carried and labeled stale): close $3,253.00, open $3,245, range $3,233–3,256; MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41; MACD DIF −6.0545 above DEA −25.1982, histogram 38.2874; core range $3,200–3,350.
Against MA60 ($3,349.41), the August 7 close sits $72.91 or **−2.18% below, improved from −2.88% on August 6.**
A caliber excluded: a quote of “$3,280.00 as of August 8” appears in the sources. August 8 is a non-trading day; it is **NOT adopted ⊘.**

Interpretation: yesterday’s conclusion needs restating, not confirming

Yesterday’s central claim — “aluminum barely responded to the most bullish macro print of the quarter” — rested on the absence of an August 7 SHFE print. With the print recovered, **the accurate statement changes.**
The correct comparison is: **with no payrolls input at all, the domestic board rose 0.61%; the international board, which did trade payrolls, rose 0.22%.**
That does not weaken yesterday’s “severe reading.” **It strengthens it, and for a better reason: aluminum’s pricing weight has shifted decisively toward domestic deliverable-metal scarcity and away from the dollar and the rate path.** The onshore gain did not need macro to happen; the offshore market got macro and could not use it.
Three restraints belong here, carrying no less weight than the bullish items above.
First, **the range top was tested and rejected on the first touch: 24,130 exceeded 24,100 by 30, and the close finished 120 below it.** A failed touch is not a breakout.
Second, **price up on falling open interest: OI is 12,233 lots (−4.82%) below the July 30 caliber while price rose about 2.13%.** The most natural reading is **short covering rather than fresh long accumulation — that is interpretation, not fact — and its implication is that this advance has a finite fuel supply.**
Third, position: at 23,980 the close is 120 below the core-range top and 239 above MA60. This is the upper part of the rebound and a **resistance zone, not a support zone.**
The SHFE/LME divergence persists: SHFE 1.01% above its MA60, LME 2.18% below its own — marginally narrower than yesterday.

Confirmed and new

SMM A00 / Shanghai spot: **no August 7 print in the sources consulted ⊘. Two conflicting August 6 calibers, both carried: SMM A00 **23,690 yuan/mt (−40) and an East China A00 of 23,800 yuan/mt (+170 against the previous Thursday) used inside the secondary-aluminum weekly.** They differ by 110 yuan; **this brief does not reconcile them or choose between them.**
East China premium/discount (August 6): a discount of 10 to parity on SMM’s daily review; a premium of 8–20 on a second caliber (8–40 on August 5).
Central China (August 6): a discount of 170–200 or 190–210 against the August contract; both carried.
South China: the structural premium centre remains 60–100 yuan/mt above prior years (carried).
LME aluminum: **$3,276.50, +$7.05 (+0.22%) ↑ (TE); $3,273, +0.11% ↑ (second caliber).**
ADC12 (a confirmed print returns to this brief): **24,200 yuan/mt (August 6), flat week-on-week →; the August 7 spot quote rose 50 yuan/mt ↑.**
Overseas ADC12 offers **$3,050–3,190/mt; import loss about 800 yuan/mt (August 6) to 827 yuan/mt (August 7), with the import window closed.**
Cast aluminum alloy futures AD2610 (August 7): open 23,440, range 23,420–23,545, **morning-session close 23,520, +55 (+0.23%), volume 6,114 lots, open interest 18,342 (+307).** Note: this is a **midday, not a full-day, print.**
Foshan scrap spreads (updated to the August 6 caliber): A00 versus mixed aluminum extrusion scrap **2,240 yuan/mt (2,130 on August 5, +110); A00 versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt (930, +100).** Shredded tense scrap expected at 20,200–20,800 next week.
Alumina: a print of **2,698, −0.11% appears for August 7, but the source does not state whether the caliber is the futures contract or a spot index, so it is recorded with that caveat and does not replace AO2609 2,621 (July 31).** Both are carried.
Crude: **Brent $83.55 on August 7, **+1.29% on the day** (TE caliber, revised; yesterday’s brief carried $82.27, −0.27%); month +7.09%, year +25.47%; Q3 forecast $85.58, 12-month $98.20.** The weekly decline of more than 7% is unchanged. WTI $76.99–78.16 across calibers.
US dollar index: **99.539, −0.3910 (−0.39%) (TE caliber, revised); month −1.44%, year +1.38%; Q3 forecast cut to 99.28 and the 12-month forecast to 97.76 (from 99.614).** Also carried: 99.43 (−0.5%, Reuters) and 99.604 (−0.33%, earlier TE snapshot). All three indicate a two-month low.

Interpretation

The most notable content of this section is **two self-corrections, both given without argument.**
Correction one (crude): **Brent rose 1.29% on August 7; it did not fall 0.27%.** The weekly decline of more than 7% is unaffected, and yesterday’s withdrawal of the “premium restored” claim still stands at weekly frequency — but **the daily direction was recorded backwards and is corrected here.**
Correction two (alumina): **the caliber of the 2,698 print is unknown.** If it is the futures caliber, it is 77 yuan above the July 31 close of 2,621, which runs opposite to this brief’s standing view that alumina’s medium-term direction is lower cost. Until the caliber is confirmed, **no conclusion is adjusted on it.**
ADC12 restores a complete chain that had been missing: **24,200 flat, import window closed, import loss near 800 yuan — cost support exists on the secondary side, but demand has not been able to push the price up.**
The simultaneous widening of both Foshan scrap spreads (+110 and +100) is an under-rated confirmation: **primary metal is getting more expensive relative to scrap, which points the same way as the shrinking-tradable-ingot mechanism.**
TE raised both the Q3 and 12-month aluminum forecasts ($3,309.69 and $3,507.82) while cutting the 12-month dollar forecast from 99.614 to 97.76. Two external forecasts moving the same way is a medium-term valuation-side positive — but **forecasts are not data and should rank below price and inventory.**

3 · Inventory

Major update: LME stocks refresh after a fifteen-session freeze

LME aluminum warehouse stocks: **256,400 mt on August 7, down 16.0% over thirty days, with metal draining for 29 consecutive trading sessions; thirty-day range 256,400–305,200 mt.**
Against the July 24 caliber of 271,275 mt, that is a further **−14,875 mt (−5.48%).** No new on-warrant/cancelled split appears; the July 24 on-warrant figure of 245,350 mt is carried.
SHFE aluminum warrants (August 7): **307,008 mt, −1,795 d/d, −13,216 (−4.13%) w/w, −87,020 (−22.08%) m/m.**
China aluminum ingot social inventory: **933,000 mt (August 6 Thursday print), −25,000 mt from 958,000 (recorded by the same source as both −25,000 m/m and −20,000 w/w).** No new print; **the next is Monday August 10.**
China’s cast aluminum alloy ingot social inventory: **24,000 mt, a tenth consecutive week of destocking but only 200 mt this week — close to stalling.**
SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants: 17,553 mt (August 3, carried).
July’s average weekly drawdown of 54,800 mt remains the highest for the period in three years; SMM projects social inventory possibly below 800,000 mt in H2 2026 (both carried).
National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 mt w/w); port bauxite 940,000 mt (carried).

Interpretation: deliverable inventory is now contracting on both exchanges at once — the strongest evidence in this brief

This brief has repeatedly warned that the “lowest this century” framing was decaying as **current evidence because the series had stopped updating.** It has updated, and **it decayed in the right direction: 256,400 mt, −16.0% on the month, 29 consecutive sessions of draw.**
Set alongside SHFE warrants at −22.08% month-on-month, the conclusion is that **deliverable inventory in China and in London is shrinking simultaneously.** The two series are verified by different institutions under different rules, so their agreement carries more force than either alone.
The mechanical restraint from yesterday must be retained — and today it is **supported by new data: warrant and stock declines can reflect consumption, cancellation into the tradable pool, or reduced willingness to deliver.** Today’s production data points squarely at a structural version of the latter: **fewer ingots cast, not more metal consumed (see Section 5).**
Two limits on the narrative: social inventory has no new print this period and its pace was already described by SMM as slowing, and cast aluminum alloy ingots drew only 200 mt this week.
Net for this section: **clearly bullish, and the strongest single column in this brief — but its character remains support for price rather than propulsion of it.**

4 · Macro Factors

Confirmed: July payrolls (carried; the data itself is unchanged)

US nonfarm payrolls **FELL 23,000 in July against a consensus of +80,000 (Reuters) to +83,000 (WSJ) and FactSet’s +97,500.**
May and June revised down a combined **103,000 (June +57,000→+20,000; May +129,000→+63,000); the trailing twelve-month average is just +34,000.**
Unemployment 4.1% from 4.2%, **but participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest in more than five years.**
Average hourly earnings $37.62, **+3.2% y/y, the slowest since May 2021.**
Private payrolls **+30,000 against total government −53,000 (largely seasonal).**

New: a cleaner CME FedWatch caliber reconciles yesterday’s three-way spread

Probability of a September **HOLD: 60% on Friday August 7, 45% on Thursday, roughly one-in-three a week earlier.** That implies hike odds near **40% / 55% / about 67%.**
The value of this caliber is that it gives **three points on one series, which is more usable than yesterday’s three separate sources.**
Yesterday’s calibers are still carried: Reuters 55%→40%; CNBC 57%→43.9% (hold rising to 60.4% from 43.2%); a third recording roughly 55%→about 20% against 82% in late July. The **20% reading should be treated as the weakest of the four.**
Treasuries: two-year −8bp to 4.16%; ten-year −6bp to 4.61%.
Dollar index (TE caliber, **revised): 99.539, −0.3910 (−0.39%); month −1.44%, year +1.38%; Q3 forecast 99.28, 12-month forecast 97.76 (cut from 99.614).**
Next US event: **July CPI on August 12.** Background: the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% on July 29 by 9–3, its most divided vote since 2016.

New and material: Hormuz — the real calendar risk is not the joint statement, it is the fee-free window expiring

The National, August 8: **vessels currently transit the Strait FEE-FREE, under the 60-day negotiating period established by the June 17 US–Iran memorandum of understanding — which places expiry around August 16.**
The Strait itself is described as remaining **“mostly closed to circulation”.**
The central unresolved issue is money: **Iran seeks fees equivalent to roughly 5% of cargo value; the US has refused to pay any.** An alternative Iranian framing describes **“service fees” covering environmental effects and security rather than formal tolls.**
Proposed mechanism: **Iran coordinates vessels entering the Arabian Gulf; Oman oversees those exiting.**
Hassan Ghashghavi of Iran’s parliament: **a general framework is agreed, but final details need approval at higher levels.**
Washington **has not yet assessed whether the framework fulfils Tehran’s commitments, and will do so before any final memorandum is signed.**
The joint statement (technical, legal, security, environmental) **remains under final review, with Iranian officials conditioning it on certain third parties not obstructing; a joint foreign-ministry working group is to settle the future administration of navigation and its associated services and costs.**
As of August 9, **no joint statement text has been published in the sources consulted ⊘.**

Confirmed: energy and China macro

Brent August 7 **$83.55, +1.29% (TE revised caliber); the week is still −7%+; month +7.09%, year +25.47%.**
OPEC+ core seven raise output by **188,000 bpd from September, a sixth consecutive increase completing the rollback of the 2023 voluntary cuts.** Bearish on the supply side.
Houthi forces struck southern Saudi Arabia on August 7, injuring **11 civilians, while maintaining the Red Sea blockade and Bab al-Mandeb tanker attacks.** Bullish on the geopolitical side.
China July exports **+23% y/y in USD terms, beating +22.2%, but decelerating from June’s +27%; trade surplus $112.5 billion.**
NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both **49.2; June unwrought aluminum and semis exports 711,000 mt (+45.4% y/y), H1 cumulative 3.396 Mt (+16.3%).**
New: June aluminum extrusion exports hit a **monthly record, +29.7% y/y; June primary aluminum imports approximately 167,000 mt, −19.7% m/m and −13.1% y/y.**

Interpretation: downgrade the macro column, and move the geopolitical clock forward

Yesterday established that aluminum barely responded to the most bullish macro print available. Today’s recovered SHFE print goes further: **the domestic gain required no macro input at all.** This brief therefore formally downgrades macro from a primary driver to a background variable, absent an extreme CPI reading on August 12.
The restraint that belongs with the bullish macro items: the repricing moved from “hike” to “hold,” **not from “hold” to “cut”; September hike odds are still near 40%.** A headwind was removed; a tailwind was not added.
The fall in the unemployment rate came from participation dropping to 61.4%, not from employment improving — **for an industrial metal that is a weakening end-demand signal.**
The geopolitical framing has to be updated. For three weeks the market has been pricing whether a deal arrives. The August 8 disclosure moves the question forward to: **what happens when a fee-free window expires with the fee question unsettled.**
That date falls **inside the next seven trading days, earlier than any plausible publication of the joint statement, which makes it more tradable than the statement itself.**
Its two-sidedness must be stated: expiry could produce an extension (neutral), the imposition of fees (bullish for Gulf aluminum export costs), or a breakdown in talks (bullish for supply risk, bearish for risk appetite). This brief **does not presume a direction; it identifies the date as the hardest time anchor currently in the geopolitical column.**

5 · Fundamentals

The most important new data this period: SMM July production — the mechanism is finally measured

China’s July aluminum output (31 days): **+1.6% year-on-year, +3.5% month-on-month.**
Liquid-aluminum proportion: **78.3% in July, up 1.1 percentage points from June; 78.5% forecast for August, up a further 0.2 points.**
Casting ingot output: **−15.1% year-on-year and −1.4% month-on-month.**
Built capacity approximately **46.29 Mt at end-July, flat month-on-month; operating capacity 45.31 Mt (June caliber).**

Confirmed: overseas supply

July ex-China output −6.7% y/y, but **daily average +1.6% m/m; SMM attributes the monthly gain to resumptions at Middle East and Iceland smelters plus ramp-ups in Indonesia and Vietnam.**
EGA Al Taweelah: **89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2; anode removal fully complete, pot cleaning about 90% complete, solidified aluminum cleared from over 20% of pots.**
Carried: Slovalco restarting in Q4 2026; Indonesia’s 2026 operating capacity about 2.51 Mt; SMM’s 2026 ex-China commissioned operating capacity estimate 2.32 Mt; Alcoa’s 2026 alumina guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt to 9.5–9.6 Mt (undated).

Alumina and cost

An August 7 print of 2,698 (−0.11%) exists but **its caliber is unconfirmed; AO2609 2,621 (July 31) remains carried in parallel.**
Industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt; SMM’s expected band 2,600–2,650 with a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August.
Overseas: 30,000 mt at $356/mt FOB East Australia for September loading (August 5); bauxite $70–75/mt.
New: China’s H1 2026 alumina imports **2.277 Mt, +749.1% y/y; expanding domestic production and rising inventories are described as producing a surplus, with alumina prices expected to stay largely range-bound.**

Downstream demand (carried; direction unchanged)

Aluminum processing operating rate **60.1% and falling; SMM’s July processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting.**
Sub-sector rates (week of July 25): extrusion 52.9%, primary alloy 59.0%, secondary aluminum 50.8%, wire and cable 63.6%, plate/sheet/strip 69.4%, foil 70.9%.
New: **secondary aluminum operating rate 49.4%, stable month-on-month (a different caliber from the 50.8% above; both are recorded).**
PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y, foil +23.8% y/y, extrusion a monthly record at +29.7% y/y.

Interpretation: this period’s fundamentals in one sentence — China is producing more aluminum and fewer ingots

For four consecutive days this brief has used a mechanism: rising liquid-aluminum ratio → fewer ingots cast → structural contraction in tradable commodity metal. Until today it was an **inference. Today it is a measurement: total output +1.6% y/y, casting ingot output −15.1% y/y.**
The value of that data is that it supports both the bull and the bear side, and both must be stated.
Bull side: deliverable-form metal genuinely is shrinking, which explains the simultaneous contraction in both exchanges’ inventories and the firming of basis, regional spreads and scrap spreads.
Bear side: **China’s total primary aluminum output is rising, not falling.** If downstream capacity to absorb liquid aluminum directly weakens — say, processing margins fail to recover after the off-season, or the local-conversion ratio peaks — ingot casting returns quickly and the destocking mechanism weakens with it. August’s incremental gain in the liquid ratio is already forecast at **+0.2 points against July’s +1.1 — that marginal deceleration is the earliest warning signal available in this brief.**
Overseas, the margin has also turned toward more supply: daily average output +1.6% m/m on Middle East and Iceland resumptions and Indonesian and Vietnamese ramp-ups. The −6.7% year-on-year figure still holds, but **year-on-year is the stock and month-on-month is the margin, and the margin is currently rising.**
Alumina cannot be adjudicated because of the caliber problem; but H1 imports at +749.1% y/y and the “domestic surplus” description point the same way, so the medium-term lower-cost view is unchanged and its weight stays at the minimum.
Demand added a fifth consecutive adverse reading this period (secondary aluminum operating rate 49.4%). Under that consistency, **any reading of inventory contraction as improving demand lacks support.**

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Status: still no August 7 primary spot print; the August 6 caliber conflicts

SMM A00 (August 6): **23,690 yuan/mt, −40 ↓ (caliber one).** Caliber two: East China A00 **23,800 yuan/mt, +170 against the previous Thursday ↑.** They differ by 110 yuan; **both are carried and neither is adopted.**
No August 7 A00 print appears in the sources consulted ⊘.
East China premium/discount (August 6): a discount of 10 to parity on SMM’s daily review; a premium of 8–20 on a second caliber (8–40 on August 5).
Central China (August 6): a discount of 170–200 or 190–210 against the August contract, with a firming transaction trend.
East China sentiment (August 6): selling 3.10 (+0.01), purchasing 2.86 (+0.06).
Central China sentiment: selling 2.99 (−0.2) / purchasing 2.94 (+0.03) against selling 3.20 (flat) / purchasing 2.91 (+0.06). The conflict is **unresolved for a third period; no day-on-day change is derived from it** ⊘.
Foshan scrap spreads (August 6, **updated): A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap 2,240 yuan/mt (+110); A00 versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt (+100).**
SMM’s August 6 daily review (carried): spot prices eased slightly but the market retained resilience — **tight arrivals alongside an unchanged destocking trend; most holders regained confidence in firm quotes and slowed shipments; downstream bought to immediate need with limited willingness to chase; traders’ purchasing appetite improved at discounted levels.**

Interpretation

The most informative item in this section is not a price but a **spread: both Foshan scrap spreads widened by 100–110 yuan, meaning primary metal is becoming more expensive relative to scrap.** That points the same way as the deliverable-ingot contraction and is independent physical evidence, not derived from futures.
Yet at the same moment, **East China quotes are still at a discount to parity and Central China’s discount is still 170–210.** The coexistence of those two facts means: **the structural tightness is showing up in spreads, not yet in outright premiums.** This brief’s standing methodological judgment holds — the mechanism supports basis and regional spreads more than it supports the outright price.
The A00 caliber conflict (23,690 versus 23,800) must be preserved, not eliminated. Until it is resolved, **no conclusion is drawn about spot’s day-on-day direction.**
The sequencing risk flagged yesterday remains unanswered: the board rose 145 yuan on August 7 while spot that day went entirely unobserved. If Monday’s spot opens at a deeper discount, the futures advance got no physical confirmation; if the discount narrows or turns to a premium, Section 3’s inventory narrative gains physical backing.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (12)

SHFE closed August 7 at 23,980, +145 (+0.61%), a **second consecutive close above MA60 (23,741), 239 yuan clear of it.**
That gain was earned **entirely before the payrolls release, showing the domestic board can advance without any macro input.**
LME stocks **256,400 mt (August 7), −16.0% on the month, 29 consecutive sessions of draw — a series frozen for fifteen sessions has refreshed, and the direction is unambiguous.**
SHFE warrants **307,008 mt, −87,020 (−22.08%) m/m and −4.13% w/w.** Deliverable inventory is contracting on both exchanges at once.
July casting ingot output **−15.1% y/y, −1.4% m/m — the scarcity mechanism this brief has tracked for four days is now quantified.**
Liquid-aluminum proportion **78.3% in July (+1.1pp), 78.5% forecast for August.**
Social inventory 933,000 mt (August 6, −25,000); July’s average weekly drawdown of 54,800 mt is the highest for the period in three years.
Payrolls −23,000, revisions −103,000, wages +3.2% (slowest since May 2021) — September hike odds down to about 40%.
Dollar index 99.539 (−0.39%), a two-month low; TE cut its 12-month dollar forecast from 99.614 to **97.76.**
TE raised its aluminum forecasts to **$3,309.69 for Q3 and $3,507.82 for 12 months.**
Hormuz: **the fee-free transit window expires around August 16 with the fee question unresolved (Iran seeking roughly 5% of cargo value, the US refusing); the Strait remains “mostly closed”; the joint statement is still unpublished.**
Both Foshan scrap spreads widened (+110 to 2,240 and +100 to 1,030); Houthi strikes on southern Saudi Arabia injured 11 on August 7 with the Red Sea blockade intact.

Bearish factors (10)

LME added only **+0.22% on the most bullish macro print of the quarter — the market that actually traded the release barely responded.**
Price up on falling open interest: **241,543 lots against 253,776 on July 30, −12,233 (−4.82%), while price rose about 2.13% — most naturally read as short covering rather than fresh long accumulation.**
The core-range top was tested and rejected on the first touch: the 24,130 high cleared 24,100 by only 30 and the close finished 120 below it.
China’s July **total aluminum output rose 1.6% y/y and 3.5% m/m — more aluminum is being produced; only the ingot form is shrinking.**
August’s incremental gain in the liquid-aluminum ratio is forecast at **+0.2 points against July’s +1.1 — the scarcity mechanism’s marginal momentum is decelerating.**
A fifth consecutive adverse demand reading: processing rate 60.1% and falling, processing PMI 42.2 (all seven contracting), **secondary aluminum operating rate 49.4%, ADC12 flat week-on-week, import window closed at a loss near 800 yuan.**
The overseas margin has turned to more supply: ex-China daily average output **+1.6% m/m on Middle East and Iceland resumptions and Indonesian/Vietnamese ramp-ups; Slovalco restarting in Q4; EGA continuing to restart.**
H1 alumina imports 2.277 Mt (+749.1% y/y) with domestic expansion and rising inventories described as a surplus; if the August 7 print of 2,698 proves to be the futures caliber, the cost side carries a reverse risk (caliber unconfirmed).
OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd from September, a sixth straight increase completing the rollback of the 2023 voluntary cuts — energy-side cost support keeps eroding.
Spot unconfirmed: East China still at a discount to parity and Central China at 170–210 on August 6; the A00 caliber conflict (23,690 versus 23,800) is unresolved; no August 7 spot print at all; cast aluminum alloy ingots drew only 200 mt this week.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Yesterday’s gap has been filled, and filling it changed how the conclusion must be phrased rather than confirming it: **SHFE AL2609 opened August 7 at 23,875, traded 23,835–24,130, and closed at 23,980, +145 (+0.61%) on 151,302 lots with open interest at 241,543, and because the SHFE day session closes at 15:00 Beijing while payrolls printed at 20:30, that entire gain preceded the month’s largest macro event by five and a half hours — so the accurate statement is not “aluminum ignored a bullish macro print” but “the domestic board rose 0.61% with no macro input while the international board, which did trade payrolls, rose 0.22%”, which strengthens yesterday’s severe reading for a better reason: aluminum’s pricing weight has shifted decisively toward domestic deliverable-metal scarcity and away from the dollar and the rate path; the evidence for that was measured for the first time today — SMM’s July data shows China’s total aluminum output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m while casting ingot output fell 15.1% y/y and 1.4% m/m, with the liquid-aluminum ratio at 78.3% in July (+1.1pp) and 78.5% forecast for August — in one sentence, China is producing more aluminum and fewer ingots; the exchange series corroborate it on both sides of the world and one of them finally refreshed, with LME stocks at 256,400 mt on August 7, −16.0% over thirty days and falling for 29 consecutive sessions, a further −14,875 mt (−5.48%) from the July 24 caliber of 271,275 mt, alongside SHFE warrants at 307,008 mt, −22.08% month-on-month — together the strongest single column in this brief; but three restraints carry equal weight: first, the 24,100 core-range top was tested and rejected on the first touch (a 24,130 high clearing it by 30, a close 120 beneath it); second, open interest at 241,543 is 12,233 lots (−4.82%) below the July 30 caliber while price rose about 2.13%, and price up on falling open interest is most naturally read as short covering rather than fresh length (interpretation, not fact); third, demand has now produced a fifth consecutive adverse reading while China’s total output is rising and August’s liquid-ratio gain is forecast to decelerate from +1.1 points to +0.2 — the scarcity mechanism’s marginal momentum is fading; two self-corrections are owed and given without hedging: on crude, TradingEconomics now records Brent at $83.55 on August 7, up 1.29% on the day, not the $82.27 and −0.27% carried yesterday (the weekly decline of more than 7% and yesterday’s withdrawal of the “premium restored” claim both still stand), and on rates, a cleaner FedWatch caliber puts September hold odds at 60% Friday, 45% Thursday and roughly one-in-three a week earlier — implying hikes near 40%/55%/67% and making yesterday’s “about 20%” the weakest of four calibers; and the most actionable new fact in this brief is not a price at all — ships are currently transiting Hormuz fee-free under the 60-day window established by the June 17 US–Iran memorandum, which expires around August 16 with the fee question unresolved (Iran seeking roughly 5% of cargo value, the US refusing to pay any) and the Strait still described as mostly closed to circulation — which moves the geopolitical question forward from “will a deal arrive” to “what happens when a fee-free window expires unsettled”, inside the next seven trading days and ahead of any joint statement; Monday therefore poses three non-overlapping falsifiable tests: whether SHFE can close above 24,100 on a second attempt, whether open interest rises with price instead of continuing to fall, and whether spot confirms the 145-yuan advance with a narrowing rather than a widening discount.**

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s Reopen and Night Session

The August 7 Friday night session — still the only completely unobserved variable in this brief: It opened at 21:00 Beijing on August 7, thirty minutes after payrolls, and belongs to the August 10 trading day. It is the domestic board’s **first pricing of the release; the +0.61% day-session gain has nothing to do with it.** Watch two mutually exclusive outcomes: a gap higher that holds means the macro channel onshore is still open; a flat open or a fade replicates LME’s torpor onshore and **should formally classify aluminum’s driver as non-macro.**
The second test of 24,100 — the clearest technical dividing line of this cycle: The August 7 high of 24,130 cleared the core-range top by only 30 and the close of 23,980 finished 120 beneath it — **the first test failed.** Watch whether Monday can **close above 24,100: a close above turns the range top into support with 24,150 above; a second failure forms a double-top shape, with 23,835 (the August 7 low), 23,741 (MA60) and 23,542 (MA10) as the verification levels beneath.**
Whether open interest rises with price — the only way to separate short covering from fresh length: OI was 241,543 on August 7, down 12,233 lots (−4.82%) from the July 30 caliber of 253,776 while price rose about 2.13%. Watch whether OI increases alongside any further advance: **rising together means new long support; continued divergence means the fuel supply is limited — and that judgment bears directly on whether a break of 24,100 would be valid.**
The Hormuz fee-free window expiring around August 16 — the hardest new time anchor in this brief: Under the June 17 US–Iran memorandum the 60-day negotiating period expires around August 16 with fees unresolved (Iran seeking roughly 5% of cargo value, the US refusing). Three falsifiable checkpoints: whether the window is extended; whether any fee mechanism is announced; and whether the Strait’s “mostly closed” status changes. This brief presumes no direction, but notes the date is more tradable than the joint statement itself.
US July CPI on August 12: Payrolls already took September hold odds to 60% (hikes near 40%); CPI is the direct input deciding whether that keeps rising or gets taken back. Wage growth is already 3.2% y/y, the slowest since May 2021; a soft CPI could remove the hike column almost entirely, while a rebound would claw back part of Friday’s repricing. But note Section 4’s conclusion: **the macro column has been downgraded to a background variable absent an extreme reading.**
Monday August 10’s weekly social inventory print, and whether both exchanges keep drawing: Social inventory 933,000 mt (August 6); SHFE warrants 307,008 mt (−22.08% m/m); LME stocks 256,400 mt (−16.0% m/m, 29 straight sessions). Watch whether all three move the same way. If warrants keep falling while social inventory rises, the warrant draw is cancellation into the tradable pool rather than consumption, and **this period’s bullish inventory read should be downgraded.**
Whether spot confirms the August 7 advance of 145 yuan: August 6 has two A00 calibers (23,690 and 23,800), East China at a discount of 10 to parity, Central China at 170–210, and August 7 has no print at all. Watch whether East China quotes turn to a premium, whether Central China’s discount narrows, and whether the Foshan scrap spreads (2,240 / 1,030) keep widening. Spreads widening while outright premiums stay flat would again point to tightness expressed in spreads rather than in price.
Confirming the alumina caliber, and the direction of the cost side: An August 7 print of 2,698 (−0.11%) exists but its caliber is unstated (futures or spot index); the last confirmed AO2609 print remains 2,621 on July 31. Watch for a definitive caliber on Monday. If 2,698 is the futures caliber, it is 77 yuan above 2,621 and runs against this brief’s medium-term lower-cost view, which would require raising the cost-support column; no adjustment is made until the caliber is confirmed.

Sources: SMM via news.smm.cn, 2026年8月7日上期所主力合约成交情况 (SHFE AL2609 August 7: close 23,980, +145, volume 151,302 lots, open interest 241,543, +1,787); Chinese futures quote data for August 7 (AL2609 open 23,875, high 24,130, low 23,835, average 23,982.48); cnal.com / 世铝网, 8月7日上海期货开盘行情 (night-session opens for the August 7 trading day: AL2608 23,815 (+10 on settlement), AL2609 23,875 (+40), AL2610 23,880 (+40)); TradingEconomics aluminum page (August 7 close $3,276.50, +$7.05 (+0.22%), previous close $3,269.45; month +4.31%, year +25.26%; Q3 forecast revised to $3,309.69 and 12-month to $3,507.82; commentary on ex-China output −6.7% y/y in July from reduced Middle East smelter operating rates, China’s 45 Mt cap becoming more restrictive, LME stocks at the lowest this century, stalled Hormuz shipping affecting the Persian Gulf’s roughly 9% share of global supply, and planned Slovalco Q4 and EGA Al Taweelah restarts); a second LME caliber ($3,273, +0.11%); The Vault Report LME aluminum warehouse inventory page (256.4K mt as of August 7; −16.0% over 30 days; 29 consecutive trading sessions of decline; 30-day range 256.4K–305.2K mt); AlCircle/SMM, July’s increase in aluminium’s proportion of liquid aluminium exceeded expectations, and August is expected to edge up (China’s July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m over 31 days; liquid-aluminum proportion 78.3% in July, +1.1pp from June, and 78.5% forecast for August, +0.2pp; casting ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt at end-July, flat m/m); AlCircle/SMM, Some aluminium plants in the Middle East announce production resumptions, overseas daily average aluminium production up 1.6 per cent M-o-M (July ex-China output −6.7% y/y with daily average +1.6% m/m, attributed to resumptions at Middle East and Iceland smelters and ramp-ups in Indonesia and Vietnam; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2, anode removal fully complete, pot cleaning about 90% complete, solidified aluminium cleared from over 20% of pots); AlCircle/SMM, Cost support combined with demand constraints keeps ADC12 prices moving sideways at high levels (August 8, data as of August 6: ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt flat w/w; A00 23,800 yuan/mt, +170 from the previous Thursday; shredded aluminium tense scrap expected at 20,200–20,800 next week; overseas ADC12 offers $3,050–3,190/mt; import loss about 800 yuan/mt with the import window closed; Foshan A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap 2,240 yuan/mt and versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt; secondary aluminium operating rate 49.4%, stable m/m; cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt, destocking for a tenth consecutive week with only a 200 mt withdrawal); AlCircle/SMM, Aluminium alloy futures price drifts higher, spot aluminium steady with slight gains (August 7: AD2610 open 23,440, range 23,420–23,545, morning-session close 23,520, +55 (+0.23%), volume 6,114 lots, open interest 18,342, +307; ADC12 spot up 50 yuan/mt; import quotes $3,050–3,190/mt; import loss approximately 827 yuan/mt; end-use demand weak with cautious downstream purchasing); AlCircle/SMM, China aluminium inventory pullback, multiple factors in play as aluminium price drifts higher (the carried SHFE and LME technical caliber: SHFE close 23,835, +70 (+0.29%), open 23,785, range 23,740–23,905, MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741, MACD DIF 93.4473 / DEA −3.5285 / histogram 193.9515, core range 23,500–24,100; LME close $3,253, +0.22%, open $3,245, range $3,233–3,256, MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41, MACD DIF −6.0545 / DEA −25.1982 / histogram 38.2874, core range $3,200–3,350; China social inventory 933,000 mt, −25,000 m/m and −20,000 w/w; SMM A00 23,690 yuan/mt, −40; spot premium of 8–40 to 8–20 against the 08 contract; Central China discount 170–200 against SHFE 08); SMM/SHFE warrant data (August 7: SHFE aluminum futures warrants 307,008 mt, −1,795 mt d/d, −13,216 mt or 4.13% w/w, −87,020 mt or 22.08% m/m); Chinese commodity price data for August 7 (alumina 2,698, −0.11% — caliber not stated by the source and therefore not substituted for AO2609); TradingEconomics US dollar page (August 7 DXY 99.539, −0.3910 (−0.39%); month −1.44%, year +1.38%; Q3 forecast 99.28, 12-month forecast 97.76; commentary that the dollar weakened after nonfarm payrolls “unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while substantial downward revisions to the previous two months pointed to a weakening labor market,” with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1% as participation continued declining); TradingEconomics Brent crude page (August 7 $83.55, +1.29% on the day, more than −7% on the week; month +7.09%, year +25.47%; Q3 forecast $85.58, 12-month $98.20; commentary that prices “remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding a potential Iran–Oman agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” complicated by Iran seeking to exclude certain vessels and impose fees on “hostile” countries, reported attacks on vessels transiting the strait, uncertainty over reopening conditions, and Houthi activity in Yemen); The National, What is the Strait of Hormuz deal being negotiated between Iran and Oman? (August 8: ships currently transit fee-free under a June 17 US–Iran memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day negotiating period; the Strait remains “mostly closed to circulation”; Iran seeks fees equivalent to roughly 5% of cargo value and the US has refused to pay any; Iran would coordinate vessels entering the Arabian Gulf and Oman those exiting; Hassan Ghashghavi of Iran’s parliament saying a general framework is agreed with final details needing approval at higher levels; the US not yet having assessed whether the framework fulfils Tehran’s commitments and stating it will do so before the sides sign a final memorandum); Ynetnews and Al Jazeera (Iranian officials describing “service fees” covering environmental effects and security rather than formal tolls; the fee question opposed by the US and Gulf states on UNCLOS grounds); GlobalSecurity/IRNA, Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz in final stage; warns of third party obstruction (joint statement covering technical, legal, security and environmental points under final review and drafting, conditioned on certain third parties not obstructing; a joint foreign-ministry working group to agree the future administration of navigation in the Strait, the services to be provided and their associated costs); Euronews and Bloomberg (August 5: Iran and Oman finalising agreement on the geographical coordinates of a proposed shipping route after more than three weeks of talks); CNBC, Odds the Fed will hike in September tumble following big July jobs miss and associated FedWatch reporting (CME FedWatch probability of a hold at 60% after the report, 45% on Thursday and roughly one-in-three a week earlier; rate futures pricing a 43.9% chance of a September hike against 57% before the report with the hold probability rising to 60.4% from 43.2%; July CPI due August 12); BLS, The Employment Situation — July 2026 (payrolls −23,000; June revised +57,000→+20,000 and May +129,000→+63,000, a combined −103,000; trailing twelve-month average +34,000; unemployment 4.1% from 4.2%; participation 61.4%, the lowest in more than five years; average hourly earnings +2 cents to $37.62, +3.2% y/y, slowest since May 2021; local government education −50,000, retail trade −19,000, total government −53,000 described as largely seasonal, private payrolls +30,000); Reuters via KFGO/Yahoo Finance (economist forecast +80,000; September hike odds from 55% to 40%; two-year Treasury −8bp to 4.16% and ten-year −6bp to 4.61%; dollar index −0.5% to 99.43; yen 157.20); Reuters via Yahoo Finance and IndexBox, OPEC+ raises oil output for sixth straight month in September (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreeing to raise collective output by 188,000 bpd from September, completing the rollback of the 2023 voluntary cuts); The National, Oil price volatile as Houthi attacks renew supply crunch fears (August 7: Houthi forces striking southern Saudi Arabia and injuring 11 civilians while maintaining the Red Sea blockade and Bab al-Mandeb tanker attacks); CNBC, China’s exports jump 23% in July, beating estimates; imports cool (exports +23% y/y against a +22.2% forecast, decelerating from June’s +27%; trade surplus $112.5 billion); SMM customs analyses (June 2026 unwrought aluminum and semis exports 711,000 mt, +45.4% y/y, with H1 cumulative 3.396 Mt, +16.3% y/y; June aluminum extrusion exports a monthly record, +29.7% y/y; June primary aluminum imports approximately 167,000 mt, −19.7% m/m and −13.1% y/y); AlCircle, China aluminium market H1 2026 review and H2 outlook (H1 2026 alumina imports 2.277 Mt, +749.1% y/y, with expanding domestic production and rising inventories creating a surplus expected to keep alumina prices volatile and largely range-bound); Mining Weekly and AlCircle (LME aluminium stocks at 267,800 t described as the lowest this century, with consumers drawing down exchange inventories amid Middle East supply constraints; Alcoa cutting 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 t to 9.5–9.6 Mt after Cyclone Narelle and contamination at Pinjarra, and restarting a potline at Warrick, Indiana while exploring a restart at Wenatchee, Washington — undated in the sources consulted); carried unchanged from prior briefs: SHFE aluminum warrants and social inventory series as above; LME stocks 271,275 mt on July 24 with 245,350 mt on-warrant; SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants 17,553 mt on August 3; July’s average weekly drawdown of 54,800 mt, the highest for the period in three years, with SMM projecting social inventory possibly below 800,000 mt in H2 2026; alumina AO2609 2,621 on July 31 with industry average full cost near 2,530, expected band 2,600–2,650 and a possible break below 2,600 in August; 30,000 mt at $356/mt FOB East Australia for September loading on August 5; bauxite $70–75/mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w; nearly 3 Mt of new South China alumina capacity planned; downstream processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; sub-sector rates for the week of July 25 (extrusion 52.9%, primary alloy 59.0%, secondary aluminum 50.8%, wire and cable 63.6%, plate/sheet/strip 69.4%, foil 70.9%); PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; June plate/sheet exports +44% y/y and foil exports +23.8% y/y; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; China’s operating capacity 45.31 Mt as of June 2026; South China’s premium centre up 60–100 yuan/mt with Chongqing at 100% local digestion and Guangxi at 88%; Indonesia’s 2026 operating capacity of about 2.51 Mt and SMM’s 2026 ex-China commissioned operating capacity estimate of 2.32 Mt; the Fed’s July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, its most divided since 2016; Governor Cook’s statement that she was prepared to raise if the disinflation trend does not resume; East China sentiment selling 3.10 and purchasing 2.86 on August 6; the Central China sentiment conflict; SMM’s August 6 daily review describing tight arrivals, an unchanged destocking trend, holders regaining confidence in firm quotes, downstream buying to immediate need, and improved trader purchasing at discounted levels. Data calibers: August 8 and August 9 are non-trading days on SHFE and LME; the next session is Monday August 10, whose trading day began with the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on Friday August 7; this brief corrects yesterday’s statement that no August 7 SHFE print existed — the day-session print has been recovered and is used here; the Friday night session of August 7 remains unobserved; the SHFE day session closes at 15:00 Beijing and the BLS release was 20:30 Beijing, so the August 7 SHFE gain preceded payrolls; this timing point is a fact, while the inference drawn from it about aluminum’s reaction function is interpretation; SHFE moving averages, MACD and the core range remain the August 6 caliber and are one session stale; the open-interest comparison is between the August 7 figure of 241,543 and the July 30 caliber of 253,776; no intervening daily prints were located, so the −12,233 change spans six sessions and is not a day-on-day move, and the short-covering reading drawn from it is labeled interpretation; the two August 7 LME calibers ($3,276.50 and $3,273) are both carried; a quote of $3,280.00 “as of August 8” is NOT adopted because August 8 is a non-trading day; TradingEconomics revised both its aluminum forecasts (Q3 $3,231.49→$3,309.69, 12-month $3,421.47→$3,507.82) and its dollar forecasts (Q3 99.614→99.28, 12-month→97.76) between yesterday’s brief and this one; the revisions are recorded as forecast changes, not as data; this brief corrects its own August 8 crude entry: TradingEconomics now records Brent at $83.55, +1.29% on August 7, not $82.27, −0.27%; the weekly decline of more than 7% and the August 8 withdrawal of the “premium restored” claim are unaffected; four September-hike calibers are now carried (the FedWatch hold series 60%/45%/~one-third, Reuters 55%→40%, CNBC 57%→43.9%, and a third at roughly 55%→about 20%); the FedWatch hold series is preferred because it gives three points on one series, and the ~20% caliber is identified as the weakest; the LME stock series has refreshed to 256,400 mt on August 7 after fifteen sessions on the July 24 caliber; the on-warrant/cancelled split has NOT refreshed and the July 24 on-warrant figure of 245,350 mt is carried; the SHFE warrant series (307,008 mt), the LME stock series (256,400 mt) and the SMM social inventory series (933,000 mt) are three distinct calibers and are never netted or summed; two August 6 A00 calibers conflict (SMM A00 23,690 and an East China A00 of 23,800 used inside the secondary-aluminum weekly); both are carried and neither is adopted; no August 7 SMM A00 spot print, East China or Central China premium/discount, or sentiment index appears in the sources consulted; the Central China sentiment caliber conflict remains unresolved for a third consecutive period and no day-on-day change is derived from it; the August 7 alumina print of 2,698 (−0.11%) carries no stated caliber (futures contract or spot index) and therefore does not replace AO2609 2,621 of July 31; no conclusion is adjusted on it; the AD2610 figure of 23,520 is a morning-session close, not a full-day close; the secondary aluminium operating rate of 49.4% and the 50.8% carried for the week of July 25 are different calibers and both are recorded; the Hormuz fee-free window’s expiry “around August 16” is derived from the reported June 17 memorandum plus its stated 60-day period; the exact expiry date is not stated in the source and the derivation is labeled as such; as of writing no Iran–Oman joint statement text has been published, no final memorandum has been signed, no fee mechanism has been announced, and no reopening of the Strait has been reported — officials’ remarks are recorded as public statements that have occurred, not as settled facts; Alcoa’s alumina guidance cut and its Warrick and Wenatchee restarts carry no confirmed date in the sources consulted and are recorded as undated, with no net effect booked to the current period. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout.

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