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A caliber correction: SHFE's August 7 close was 24,040, not 23,980, for a weekly gain of 410. Alumina's weekly gain is also confirmed.口径更正:沪铝 8 月 7 日收盘价为 24,040 而非 23,980,周涨 410 元;氧化铝周线涨幅亦获确认。

Monday, August 10, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Monday August 10 (Asia), before the SHFE day session settles. The August 10 trading day began with the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on Friday August 7. CALIBER CORRECTION, THE CENTRAL ITEM: this brief has recorded SHFE AL2609's August 7 close as 23,980, +145. That figure is the SETTLEMENT price, not the last trade. Three independent sources establish it. (1) SHFE's August 7 closing report gives AL2609 close 24,040, change +205, settlement reference 23,980, high 24,130, low 23,835, volume 151,302 lots, open interest 241,543 (+1,787) — with volume and open interest matching the SMM caliber exactly. (2) The August 3–7 weekly report gives AL2609 weekly open 23,600, high 24,130, low 23,460, close 24,040, weekly change +410 on 723,481 lots; 24,040 − 23,630 (the July 31 close carried in this brief) = 410, which only reconciles on the last-trade caliber. (3) The August 10 opening report carries 23,980 explicitly labelled as the previous SETTLEMENT. The SMM caliber's own fields corroborate the reading: it reports an average price of 23,982.48 alongside a 'close' of 23,980, and SHFE settlement is the volume-weighted average. Both figures are therefore real and are different fields; this brief used the wrong one and corrects it here. On the corrected caliber, the August 7 close of 24,040 is +205 (+0.86%) against the August 6 settlement of 23,835, sits 60 beneath the 24,100 core-range top rather than 120, and sits 299 above MA60 (+1.26%) rather than 239. A second correction follows from the same source set: the August 6 AL2609 CLOSE was 23,810, +45, on open 23,785, high 23,905, low 23,740, volume 143,802, open interest 239,756, with settlement 23,835 — so the 23,835 this brief carried as the August 6 'close' was likewise the settlement. OTHER AUGUST 7 CONTRACTS: AL2608 close 24,000, +195, high 24,075, low 23,810, volume 8,990, open interest 25,495 (−3,110), settlement 23,960; AL2610 close 24,040, +200, high 24,130, low 23,840, volume 86,103, open interest 182,871 (+12,796), settlement 23,980. NIGHT SESSION, NOW OBSERVED — the variable this brief flagged as unobserved for two consecutive days: the session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 7, thirty minutes after the BLS release and belonging to the August 10 trading day, opened AL2608 at 23,980 (+20 on settlement 23,960), AL2609 at 24,005 (+25 on settlement 23,980) and AL2610 at 24,010 (+30 on settlement 23,980). Measured against the day-session CLOSES, all three opened LOWER: AL2609 −35, AL2608 −20, AL2610 −30. No night-session close, range, volume or open interest appears in the sources consulted; only the opens are confirmed. MOVING AVERAGES remain the August 6 caliber and are two sessions stale: MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741. MACD August 6 caliber: DIF 93.4473 above DEA −3.5285, histogram 193.9515. Core range 23,500–24,100. ALUMINA, CALIBER CONFIRMED: AO2609 closed August 7 at 2,699, −7 on the day, volume 146,167 lots, open interest 162,442 (−9,529). Weekly: open 2,627, high 2,728, low 2,621, close 2,699, +78 (about +2.97%) on 896,706 lots. This confirms the 2,698/−0.11% print carried yesterday with an unstated caliber as the FUTURES caliber and supersedes the 2,621 of July 31. Industry average full cost near 2,530; SMM expected band 2,600–2,650 with a possible temporary break below 2,600 in August — the August 7 close is ABOVE that band. Overseas: Platts alumina $347/mt, +0.70% (August 6); 30,000 mt at $356/mt FOB East Australia for September loading (August 5); bauxite $70–75/mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 mt w/w); H1 2026 alumina imports 2.277 Mt, +749.1% y/y. LME, CONFIRMED: TradingEconomics has August 7 at $3,276.50, +$7.05 (+0.22%), previous close $3,269.45; month +4.31%, year +25.26%; Q3 forecast $3,309.69, 12-month $3,507.82. Second caliber $3,273, +0.11%; third caliber (cnal) $3,270, +3. August 6 cash $3,260/mt, +0.97% from $3,228.50; three-month bid $3,258, offer $3,260; Asian reference $3,259, +0.55%. The SMM technical caliber (MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41; MACD DIF −6.0545 above DEA −25.1982, histogram 38.2874; core range $3,200–3,350) is carried and stale. SMM FORWARD RANGES, NEW: SHFE expected at 23,200–24,200 next week and LME at $3,100–3,250 — the LME band sits BELOW Friday's close. INVENTORY: LME aluminum stocks 256,400 mt on August 7, −16.0% over thirty days, falling for 29 consecutive sessions, thirty-day range 256,400–305,200 mt. NEW SPLIT, first refresh since July 24: on the August 6 caliber, total stocks fell from 260,900 to 259,400 mt (−0.57%), CANCELLED WARRANTS fell from 14,750 to 13,250 mt (−10.17%), and LIVE (on-warrant) tonnage was UNCHANGED at 244,650 mt. A third August 6 caliber records LME stocks at 257,900 mt, −1,500; all three are carried and not reconciled. SHFE aluminum warrants 307,008 mt (August 7), −1,795 d/d, −13,216 (−4.13%) w/w, −87,020 (−22.08%) m/m; a second caliber gives 308,803 mt, −2,598, on August 6. China aluminum ingot social inventory 933,000 mt (August 6 Thursday print), −20,000 w/w and −25,000 against the Monday caliber, with SMM describing the destocking pace as NARROWING FURTHER; the next print is today, August 10, and had not appeared at the time of writing. ALUMINIUM BILLET inventory BUILT about 4,000 mt week-on-week — a new and adverse series. Cast aluminum alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt, a tenth consecutive weekly draw of only 200 mt. SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants 17,553 mt (August 3, carried). SPOT, AUGUST 7 PRINT RECOVERED: A00 aluminum ingot 23,970 yuan/mt, +170 (Changjiang caliber) or +180 (a second caliber), at a discount of 35. This also RESOLVES the two-caliber A00 conflict this brief has carried since August 6: the chain 23,690 (August 5) → 23,800 (August 6, +110 d/d and +170 against the previous Thursday) → 23,970 (August 7, +170) is internally consistent, so 23,690 was the August 5 print and was mis-dated to August 6 here; both figures were real. August 6 regional detail, new: East China A00 23,800, +110, discount 30; Central China A00 23,670, discount 160; Foshan A00 23,910, +110, PREMIUM 80 — the first absolute South China print in this brief. SMM A00 weekly average for August 3–7: 23,680 yuan/mt, +1.4% w/w. East China sentiment selling 3.10 (+0.01) and purchasing 2.86 (+0.06) on August 6; the Central China sentiment conflict remains unresolved for a fourth period. SECONDARY: ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt (August 6), flat w/w, with the August 7 spot quote +50; overseas offers $3,050–3,190/mt; import loss about 800 yuan/mt (August 6) to 827 (August 7), import window closed; secondary aluminum operating rate 49.4%, stable m/m; AD2610 August 7 morning-session close 23,520, +55 (+0.23%), volume 6,114 lots, open interest 18,342 (+307). Foshan scrap spreads: A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap 2,240 yuan/mt, versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt (August 6). MACRO, NEW: China's July CPI rose 0.5% y/y against a 0.8% consensus, the slowest since January, with core CPI +0.9% and the monthly rate −0.1%; PPI rose 3.5% y/y, 0.6 points slower than June and below a 3.8% consensus, a three-month low; reporting attributes the miss to lower energy prices and weak demand and notes accelerated fiscal spending in response. US July payrolls fell 23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1%; participation 61.4%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y. CME FedWatch: hold at 60% after the report, 45% Thursday and roughly one-in-three a week earlier, implying hike odds near 40%, 55% and about 67%; a separate caliber dated August 9 gives a 45.1% hold (about 54.9% hike) and a caliber dated August 4 gives 61.9% for a 25bp hike — the 45.1% figure is not adopted as a post-payrolls reading because it matches the Thursday print exactly. Next FOMC September 16; US July CPI August 12. Dollar index 99.625, +0.0862 (+0.09%) on the Monday Asia caliber, against 99.539 (−0.39%) on August 7; month −1.59%, year +1.12%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76. ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS: Brent $83.55 on August 7, +1.29% d/d, more than −7% on the week; month +7.09%, year +25.47%. OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September, a sixth consecutive increase. Houthi forces struck southern Saudi Arabia on August 7, injuring 11 civilians. HORMUZ: ships still transit fee-free under the June 17 US–Iran memorandum whose 60-day window expires around August 16, with Iran seeking roughly 5% of cargo value and the US refusing; as of August 9 Iran is reported to insist on broader US concessions — an end to military action, sanctions relief and compensation — before commercial shipping fully resumes, and Tehran has stated a deal would not reopen the waterway immediately; Kpler recorded only eight vessels crossing on August 5 (five tankers, three bulk carriers) against more than 100 per day before the conflict; a tracker records the closure at day 162. Unverified social-media reports of Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles striking a tanker off Oman are recorded as unverified and carry no weight here. CHINA MACRO CARRIED: July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2. SUPPLY: China's July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m; casting ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; liquid-aluminum proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; NEW — weekly output described as basically stable with the liquid-aluminum proportion up 0.19 points week-on-week; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt, operating capacity 45.31 Mt. Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y with the daily average +1.6% m/m; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2. Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y, while beginning to tighten exports from June. DEMAND: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August with the August schedule described as edging up m/m; NEW — billet processing fees have pulled back and replacement demand has weakened in the traditional off-season. Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
CORRECTION — SHFE AL2609 Aug 7 close 24,040, +205 (+0.86%). 23,980 is the SETTLEMENT, not the close
Why it matters The close sat 60 below the 24,100 range top, not 120; and 299 above MA60, not 239
SHFE week (Aug 3–7) Open 23,600, high 24,130, low 23,460, close 24,040, +410 (~+1.74%), 723,481 lots
THE NIGHT SESSION — now observed AL2609 opened 24,005: +25 on settlement but −35 on the CLOSE. No gap on payrolls
All three contracts AL2608 −20, AL2609 −35, AL2610 −30 versus their own day-session closes
ALUMINA CALIBER CONFIRMED AO2609 Aug 7 close 2,699, −7; it IS the futures caliber
Alumina on the week Open 2,627, high 2,728, close 2,699, +78 (~+2.97%) — cost is rising, not falling
SMM's own LME range $3,100–3,250 next week — BELOW Friday's $3,276.50 close
LME cancelled warrants 14,750 → 13,250 mt (−10.17%); live warrants UNCHANGED at 244,650
LME stocks (Aug 7) 256,400 mt, −16.0% in 30 days, 29 straight sessions of draw
Destock magnitude −20,000 mt w/w against −25,000 Monday-caliber — SMM: 'narrowing further'
Aluminium billet inventory BUILT ~4,000 mt w/w — a new adverse series
China July CPI / PPI +0.5% vs +0.8% expected (slowest since Jan) / +3.5% vs +3.8% expected
A00 (Aug 7) — print recovered 23,970 yuan/mt, +170, discount 35. Resolves the 23,690/23,800 conflict
Foshan A00 (Aug 6) 23,910, +110, PREMIUM 80 — South China is the only region at a premium
DXY (Monday Asia) 99.625, +0.09% — a partial give-back of the payrolls decline
Hormuz Day 162. Kpler: 8 vessels crossed Aug 5 vs 100+/day pre-conflict. Fee window ~Aug 16

一 · 行情表现

重要更正:8月7日沪铝的收盘价不是 23,980,该数字是结算价

  • 本简报此前记录“沪铝 AL2609 8月7日收 23,980,涨 145”。 该数字是结算价,不是最后成交价。 三个独立来源确立这一点:
  • 其一,上期所 8月7日收盘行情:AL2609 收盘 24,040,涨跌 +205,结算参考 23,980,最高 24,130、最低 23,835,成交 **151,302 手、持仓 241,543 手(+1,787)——成交量与持仓量与另一口径完全一致。**
  • 其二,8月3日–8月7日周度行情:AL2609 周开 23,600、周高 24,130、周低 23,460、周收 24,040,周涨 410 元,周成交 723,481 手。 24,040 − 23,630(本简报自身沿用的 7月31日收盘价)= 410,只有在“最后成交价”口径下才能对上。
  • 其三,8月10日开盘行情明确标注 **“昨结算 23,980”。**
  • 另一口径自身的字段亦为佐证:其同时给出均价 23,982.48** 与“收盘 23,980”,而上期所结算价即为当日成交量加权均价。** 两个数字都真实,分属不同字段,本简报取错了字段,在此更正。
  • 同一更正向前追溯:8月6日 AL2609 的收盘价是 23,810,涨 45(开 23,785、高 23,905、低 23,740、成交 143,802 手、持仓 239,756 手),而本简报此前记录的 23,835 是当日结算价。

更正后的 8月7日口径

  • AL2609:开 23,875,高 24,130,低 23,835,收 24,040,较 8月6日结算价 23,835 上涨 205 元(+0.86%);结算 23,980,均价 23,982.48;成交 151,302 手,持仓 241,543 手(+1,787)。
  • AL2608:收 24,000,+195;高 24,075、低 23,810;成交 8,990 手,持仓 25,495 手(−3,110);结算 23,960。
  • AL2610:收 24,040,+200;高 24,130、低 23,840;成交 86,103 手,持仓 **182,871 手(+12,796);结算 23,980。**
  • 周度(8月3日–8月7日):周涨 410 元,约 +1.74%。
  • 均线仍为 8月6日口径,已滞后两个交易日:MA5 23,740、MA10 23,542、MA30 23,191.33、MA60 23,741。 更正后,8月7日收盘高于 MA60 **299 元(+1.26%),而非此前记录的 239 元。**
  • 核心区间 23,500–24,100:更正后收盘距上沿仅 **60 元,而非 120 元。**

关键新增:8月7日周五夜盘已观测——本简报连续两日标注的唯一空白

  • 该夜盘于北京时间 8月7日 21:00** 开盘,即非农公布后 30 分钟,属 8月10日交易日,是国内盘面对非农的首次定价。**
  • 开盘价:AL2608 23,980、AL2609 24,005、AL2610 24,010。
  • 对各自结算价:+20 / +25 / +30,均为上涨。
  • 对各自日盘收盘价:−20 / −35 / −30,三个合约全部低开。
  • 必须给出的克制:所查来源中仅有开盘价,无夜盘收盘价、区间、成交量或持仓量 ⊘。 这是一个开盘瞬时值,不是一个完整的夜盘。

确认:伦铝

  • 8月7日:3,276.50 美元,+7.05(+0.22%)(TE);月 +4.31%、年 +25.26%;三季度预测 3,309.69 美元、十二个月 3,507.82 美元。
  • 并列口径:3,273 美元(+0.11%);3,270 美元(+3)。
  • 8月6日现货(cash):3,260 美元,较 3,228.50 上涨 0.97%;三个月买价 3,258 / 卖价 3,260;亚洲参考价 3,259(+0.55%)。
  • SMM 技术口径(延续,已滞后):MA5 3,227.70、MA10 3,199.45、MA30 3,164.40、MA60 3,349.41;核心区间 3,200–3,350 美元。 相对 MA60 低 2.18%。
  • 新增且必须单列:SMM 给出的下周区间预期为 沪铝 23,200–24,200 元、伦铝 3,100–3,250 美元。 伦铝这一区间整体低于周五收盘的 3,276.50 美元。

解读

  • 更正的后果不是修辞性的。 在正确口径下,区间上沿的“拒绝”比此前记录的更浅(收盘距上沿 60 元而非 120 元),而价格在本轮反弹中的位置比此前记录的更高(高于 MA60 299 元)。 两条都指向:上方阻力更近,回撤空间更大。
  • 夜盘给出的答案是空方的。 本简报周日曾把这一测试写为“跳空高开并守住 → 宏观通道畅通;平淡或高开低走 → 应正式归类为非宏观”。 实际结果是三个合约相对日盘收盘价全部低开——在本季度最利多的美国就业数据之后。
  • 但必须同时说明其局限:仅有开盘价,没有夜盘收盘。 因此这条证据的强度是“方向性”的,而非“结论性”的。
  • 位置判断:收盘 24,040 处于本轮反弹的高位区,且距核心区间上沿仅 60 元,属于阻力区而非支撑区;下方第一验证位为 23,980(结算价,亦为夜盘参考位)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

重大澄清:氧化铝口径已确认,且结论与本简报既有判断相反

  • AO2609(8月7日):收 2,699,跌 7 元,成交 **146,167 手,持仓 162,442 手(−9,529)。**
  • 周度(8月3日–8月7日):开 2,627、高 2,728、低 2,621、收 2,699,周涨 78 元(约 +2.97%),周成交 896,706 手。
  • 因此,昨日记录的“2,698,−0.11%,口径未明”确认为期货口径,并取代本简报自 7月31日起沿用的 2,621。
  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;SMM 预期区间 2,600–2,650 元,并曾提示 8 月可能短暂跌破 2,600。 8月7日收盘 2,699 **高于该区间上沿。**
  • 海外:Platts 氧化铝 347 美元/吨(+0.70%,8月6日);8月5日 3 万吨成交于 356 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(9月装船);铝土矿 70–75 美元/吨。

现货与关联品种

  • A00 铝锭(8月7日印记已找到):23,970 元/吨,+170 元(长江口径),贴水 35 元;另一口径记为 **+180 元。**
  • 口径冲突已解决:23,690(8月5日)→ 23,800(8月6日,日涨 110、较上周四 +170)→ 23,970(8月7日,+170),链条各环节自洽。 说明 23,690 是 **8月5日 印记,本简报此前误记为 8月6日;两个数字始终都是真实的。**
  • 8月6日分区域(新增):华东 A00 **23,800,+110,贴水 30;华中 A00 23,670,贴水 160;佛山 A00 23,910,+110,升水 80。**
  • SMM A00 周均价(8月3日–8月7日):23,680 元/吨,周涨 1.4%。
  • ADC12:24,200 元/吨(8月6日),周环比持平** →;8月7日现货 +50 元;海外报盘 3,050–3,190 美元/吨;进口亏损约 800(8月6日)至 827 元/吨(8月7日),进口窗口关闭。**
  • AD2610(8月7日):午盘收 23,520,+55(+0.23%),成交 6,114 手,持仓 18,342 手(+307)。 注:午盘口径。
  • 佛山废铝价差(8月6日):A00 与破碎生铝 **2,240 元/吨;A00 与精废 1,030 元/吨。**
  • 原油:Brent 8月7日 **83.55 美元,+1.29%;周跌超 7%;月 +7.09%、年 +25.47%。**
  • 美元指数:99.625,+0.0862(+0.09%)(周一亚洲口径),对比 8月7日的 99.539(−0.39%);月 −1.59%、年 +1.12%;三季度预测 99.275、十二个月 97.76。

解读:成本端的方向反转,必须双向陈述

  • 本简报此前的“氧化铝中期成本下移”判断在本期被数据否定,予以下调,不作辩护。 周涨 78 元、周内高点 2,728、收盘高于 SMM 自身预期区间上沿——三条同向。
  • 但其对铝价的含义不是单向利多,必须两侧都讲:
  • 利多侧:氧化铝上行抬高电解铝完全成本,抬高铝价的下方地板。
  • 利空侧:成本上行压缩冶炼利润,而冶炼利润恰恰是本简报核心多头机制(铝水比例上升 / 铸锭减少)的前提条件之一。 利润被压缩时,企业提高铝水就地转化比例的动力会减弱,铸锭有可能回补——这与“可交割金属持续收缩”的方向相反。
  • 现货一侧:8月7日 A00 上涨 170 元,而期货收盘上涨 205 元——贴水略有扩大而非收窄。 结论:现货确认了方向,但未确认全部幅度。
  • 区域结构是本节信息量最高的一条:佛山升水 80 元,是全国唯一在期货之上成交的区域;华东贴水 30、华中贴水 160。 “结构性紧张”真正可见的地方在华南,而不是在全国均价。
  • 美元指数周一小幅回补(+0.09%),把非农当日的 −0.39% 部分抹去。 这是背景变量,权重按第四节的既定判断维持在低位。

三 · 库存

确认:总量仍在降

  • LME 铝库存:8月7日 256,400 吨,三十日降 16.0%,连续 29 个交易日下降;三十日区间 256,400–305,200 吨。
  • 上期所铝仓单(8月7日):307,008 吨,日减 1,795 吨、周减 13,216 吨(−4.13%)、月减 87,020 吨(−22.08%)。 另一口径:8月6日 308,803 吨,日减 2,598 吨。
  • 国内铝锭社会库存:93.3 万吨(8月6日周四口径),周环比减 2.0 万吨,对应周一口径减 2.5 万吨。 今日(8月10日)周度印记在撰写时尚未出现 ⊘。

新增且不利:结构在恶化,尽管总量在降

  • LME 仓单结构自 7月24日以来首次刷新(8月6日口径):总库存由 260,900 吨降至 **259,400 吨(−0.57%);注销仓单由 14,750 吨降至 13,250 吨(−10.17%);可用(注册)仓单持平于 244,650 吨。**
  • 另一口径记 8月6日 LME 库存 257,900 吨,日减 1,500 吨。 三个口径并列,不作调和 ⊘。
  • SMM 明确描述本周去库幅度 **“进一步收窄”。**
  • 新增序列:铝棒库存周增约 4,000 吨——本简报中第一条方向不利于多头的库存序列。
  • 中国铸造铝合金锭社会库存 **2.4 万吨,连续第十周去库,但本周仅减 200 吨。**
  • 全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨);港口铝土矿 94 万吨。

解读:一个仍在下降、但后续燃料在减少的库存

  • 注销仓单是已被指定提货、即将离场的金属,它是后续继续去库的前瞻燃料。 该项下降 10.17%,而可用仓单分文未动。
  • 因此正确的表述是:LME 库存总量仍在下降,但排在其后的提货队列在缩短。 这不是对“去库”的否定,而是对去库剩余跑道的下修(此为解读)。
  • 国内一侧出现同向信号且更直接:周度去库幅度收窄(2.0 万吨),同时铝棒库存转为累积(+4,000 吨)。 铝棒是铝水就地转化的主要去向之一,铝棒累库与“铝水比例上升消化了金属”的叙事存在张力。
  • 本节净判定:仍为利多,但强度较上期下调——由“本期强度最高的一栏”降为“方向利多、边际转弱”。

四 · 宏观因素

新增:中国 7 月物价数据(8月9日公布),双双低于预期

  • CPI 同比 **+0.5%,预期 +0.8%,为1 月以来最慢;核心 CPI +0.9%;环比 −0.1%。**
  • PPI 同比 **+3.5%,预期 +3.8%,较 6 月回落 0.6 个百分点,为三个月最低。**
  • 报道归因于能源价格下行与需求疲弱,并提及决策层加快财政支出以支撑放缓的经济。

确认:美国就业与利率定价

  • 7 月非农减少 2.3 万人;5、6 月合计下修 **10.3 万人;失业率 4.1%;劳动参与率 61.4%;平均时薪同比 +3.2%。**
  • CME FedWatch:9 月按兵不动概率 **周五 60% / 周四 45% / 一周前约三分之一,对应加息约 40% / 55% / 约 67%。**
  • 口径冲突记录:另有来源标注“8月9日:按兵不动 45.1%(加息约 54.9%)”。 该数值与周四印记完全一致,故不采纳为非农之后的读数** ⊘。** 另有“8月4日:加息 25bp 概率 61.9%”的更早印记。
  • 下次 FOMC:9月16日;下一个美国事件:8月12日 7 月 CPI。
  • 美元指数 **99.625(+0.09%,周一亚洲口径),较 8月7日的 99.539 小幅回补。**

霍尔木兹:免费窗口未变,但伊朗抬高了要价

  • 免费通行窗口依据 6月17日美伊备忘录的 60 天期限,于 8月16日前后到期(费用问题未决:伊朗要求约货值 5%,美国拒绝支付)。
  • 新增(8月9日):伊朗坚持在商业航运全面恢复之前,需要美方作出更广泛让步——停止军事行动、解除制裁、给予赔偿;德黑兰同时表态协议达成并不意味着海峡立即重开。
  • 通行量数据(Kpler):8月5日仅 8 艘船只通过(5 艘油轮、3 艘散货船),冲突前为每日 100 艘以上。 某追踪器记录海峡关闭已至第 162 天。
  • 不予采纳:社交媒体流传的“伊朗反舰巡航导弹击中阿曼外海油轮”的说法,未经证实,本简报不赋予权重 ⊘。
  • 能源与其他:Brent 8月7日 83.55 美元(+1.29%),周跌超 7%;OPEC+ 核心七国自 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日(连续第六个月);胡塞 8月7日袭击沙特南部致 11 名平民受伤。
  • 中国宏观(延续):7 月出口同比 +23%,顺差 1,125 亿美元;NBS 与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。

解读

  • 中国 PPI 的双重意义必须分开讲。 对工业金属而言,PPI 同比回落 0.6 个百分点、且低于预期,是需求侧最直接的确认性证据——这与本简报连续多期记录的加工开工率、加工 PMI、再生铝开工率同向。
  • 另一侧的标准对冲:通胀读数越弱,财政与货币响应的概率越高,而报道已提及“加快财政支出”。 但政策预期属于二阶变量,权重应低于当期需求数据。
  • 本简报维持第四节的既定判断:宏观栏为背景变量,而非主驱动。 夜盘的表现(相对收盘价全部低开)进一步支持这一判断,而非削弱它。
  • 霍尔木兹一栏的变化不在日期,而在要价。 由“费用”扩大到“停止军事行动 + 解除制裁 + 赔偿”,意味着达成完整协议的门槛显著抬高,免费窗口于 8月16日到期时被延期或被打破的不确定性同步上升。 本简报不预设方向。
  • 每日 8 艘 对 冲突前每日 100 艘以上,是本期最具体的一条供应链量化证据。

五 · 基本面

供应(新增周度口径)

  • 新增:中国电解铝周度产量基本持平;铝水比例周环比上升 0.19 个百分点。
  • 7 月月度(延续确认):总产量同比 **+1.6%、环比 +3.5%;铸锭产量同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%;铝水比例 7 月 78.3%(+1.1pp),8 月预计 78.5%(+0.2pp)。**
  • 建成产能约 4,629 万吨(7月末);运行产能 4,531 万吨(6 月口径)。
  • 境外:7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%,日均产量环比 +1.6%;EGA Al Taweelah 截至 7月2日已重启 89/1,262 槽;斯洛伐克 Slovalco 四季度重启(延续)。
  • 铝土矿:几内亚 2026 年上半年出口创纪录 **1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%,但自 6 月起开始收紧出口。**

氧化铝与成本(方向已更正,见第二节)

  • AO2609 8月7日收 **2,699,周涨 78 元(+2.97%),周内高点 2,728;高于 SMM 预期区间 2,600–2,650 的上沿。**
  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨;全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨);上半年氧化铝进口 227.7 万吨(同比 +749.1%)。

需求(新增两条,方向未变)

  • 加工开工率 **60.1% 且下行;SMM 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个板块全部收缩;再生铝开工率 49.4%。**
  • 新增:铝棒加工费回落;替代性需求走弱;处于传统消费淡季,开工率承压。
  • 光伏:组件排产 7 月 38.5 GW → 8 月 39.3 GW,8 月排产环比小幅上行,支撑边框开工。
  • 出口(延续):6 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 71.1 万吨(+45.4% y/y),上半年 339.6 万吨(+16.3%);6 月铝型材出口创月度新高(+29.7% y/y);6 月原铝进口约 16.7 万吨(环比 −19.7%、同比 −13.1%)。

解读

  • “中国在生产更多的铝,和更少的铝锭”这一机制本期未被推翻,但边际动能继续减速:铝水比例的周环比增幅为 **+0.19 个百分点,8 月月度预期增幅为 +0.2 个百分点,均显著低于 7 月的 +1.1 个百分点。**
  • 本期新增的两条需求读数(铝棒加工费回落、替代需求走弱)与铝棒库存转为累积(+4,000 吨)互相印证,构成一条完整链条:铝水转化的下游承接能力正在减弱。
  • 这一链条若延续,其后果是明确的:铝水比例的上行会遇到下游瓶颈,铸锭量随之回补,而“可交割金属收缩”的多头机制将被削弱(此为解读,非事实)。
  • 成本端的方向已反转(氧化铝周涨 78 元),其对多头机制的二阶影响是负面的——利润压缩会降低企业维持高铝水比例的动力。 这一点与“成本抬高地板”的一阶利多同时成立,不应只讲其中一侧。

六 · 原铝现货市场

8月7日印记已恢复,且口径冲突已解决

  • A00(8月7日):23,970 元/吨,+170 元,贴水 35 元(长江口径);另一口径记 **+180 元。**
  • 口径链条自洽:23,690(8月5日)→ 23,800(8月6日,+110)→ 23,970(8月7日,+170)。 本简报此前将 23,690 误记为 8月6日印记,在此更正;两个数字均真实。
  • 8月6日分区域:华东 **23,800,+110,贴水 30;华中 23,670,贴水 160;佛山 23,910,+110,升水 80。**
  • SMM A00 周均价(8月3日–8月7日):23,680 元/吨,周涨 1.4%。
  • 华东情绪指数(8月6日,延续):出货意愿 3.10(+0.01),采购意愿 2.86(+0.06)。
  • 华中情绪指数冲突连续第四期未解决,不据此计算日环比 ⊘。
  • 佛山废铝价差(8月6日):A00 与破碎生铝 2,240 元/吨;A00 与精废 1,030 元/吨。

解读

  • 现货确认了周五的方向,但未确认全部幅度:A00 涨 170 元,期货收盘涨 205 元,贴水略有扩大。
  • 本节最有价值的一条是区域结构:佛山升水 80 元,为全国唯一在期货之上成交的区域;华东贴水 30、华中贴水 160。 区域价差(佛山 − 华中 = 240 元)比全国均价更能说明“结构性紧张的位置”。
  • 本简报此前的方法论判断继续成立且再获一条证据:该机制对基差与区域价差的支撑,强于对绝对价格的支撑。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(11 项)

  • 更正后的沪铝 8月7日收盘为 **24,040 元,涨 205 元(+0.86%),距核心区间上沿 24,100 仅 60 元。**
  • 周度(8月3日–8月7日)周涨 410 元(约 +1.74%),周成交 723,481 手,周高 24,130。
  • 收盘高于 MA60(23,741)299 元(+1.26%),为连续第二个交易日收于其上。
  • AL2610 持仓大增 12,796 手至 182,871 手——远月合约出现新增头寸。
  • LME 库存 **256,400 吨(8月7日),月降 16.0%,连续 29 个交易日下降;上期所仓单月减 22.08%,两个交易所可交割库存同时收缩。**
  • 氧化铝周涨 **78 元(+2.97%)至 2,699,高于 SMM 预期区间上沿——成本端地板上移。**
  • 8月7日 A00 上涨 **170 元至 23,970;SMM A00 周均价周涨 1.4%。**
  • 佛山 A00 升水 **80 元,为全国唯一升水区域;佛山废铝价差维持在 2,240 / 1,030 的高位。**
  • 7 月铸锭产量同比 **−15.1%;铝水比例 7 月 78.3%、8 月预计 78.5%——可交割形态金属仍在收缩。**
  • 美国 7 月非农 −2.3 万人、两月下修 10.3 万人,9 月加息概率降至约 40%;TE 上修伦铝三季度(3,309.69 美元)与十二个月(3,507.82 美元)预测,同时下调美元十二个月预测至 97.76。
  • 霍尔木兹:免费通行窗口 **8月16日前后到期而费用未决;伊朗要价扩大至停止军事行动、解除制裁与赔偿;8月5日仅 8 艘船只通过(冲突前每日 100 艘以上);海峡关闭已至第 162 天;胡塞 8月7日袭击沙特南部。**

利空因素(13 项)

  • 夜盘对非农没有跳空高开:AL2608 / AL2609 / AL2610 相对各自日盘收盘价分别 **−20 / −35 / −30 低开。**
  • LME 注销仓单由 14,750 吨降至 **13,250 吨(−10.17%),而可用仓单持平于 244,650 吨——继续去库的前瞻燃料在减少。**
  • SMM 自身给出的下周伦铝区间 **3,100–3,250 美元,整体低于周五收盘的 3,276.50 美元。**
  • 周度去库幅度进一步收窄(周环比 −2.0 万吨,对应周一口径 −2.5 万吨)。
  • 新增不利序列:铝棒库存周增约 4,000 吨;铸造铝合金锭本周仅去库 200 吨。
  • 中国 7 月 **CPI +0.5%(预期 +0.8%,1 月以来最慢)、PPI +3.5%(预期 +3.8%,三个月最低),双双低于预期。**
  • 成本端二阶效应:氧化铝上行压缩冶炼利润,而利润是维持高铝水比例的前提之一——可能导致铸锭回补。
  • 铝水比例边际减速:周环比 **+0.19 个百分点、8 月月度预期 +0.2 个百分点,远低于 7 月的 +1.1 个百分点。**
  • 中国 7 月电解铝总产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%;周度产量基本持平——产的铝更多了。
  • 需求端新增两条同向读数:铝棒加工费回落、替代性需求走弱;叠加加工开工率 60.1% 且下行、加工 PMI 42.2(七板块全收缩)、再生铝开工 49.4%、ADC12 周环比持平且进口窗口关闭。
  • 境外边际转向增产:7 月中国以外日均产量环比 **+1.6%;EGA 持续复产;Slovalco 四季度重启;几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创 1.148 亿吨纪录(+15% y/y)。**
  • 现货未完全确认:8月7日 A00 涨 170 元 对 期货涨 205 元,贴水扩大;华东仍贴水 30、华中贴水 160。
  • 美元指数周一回补至 **99.625(+0.09%);OPEC+ 自 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日(连续第六个月),能源成本支撑继续削弱。**

八 · 一句话观点

本期的三个未决问题全部关闭,其中两个的结论与本简报此前判断相反,必须直接陈述:其一是本简报自身的口径错误——沪铝 AL2609 8月7日的收盘价是 24,040 元、涨 205 元(+0.86%),而 23,980 是结算价,该更正由上期所收盘行情(收 24,040 / 结算参考 23,980,成交与持仓与另一口径完全一致)、周度行情(周收 24,040、周涨 410 元,且 24,040 − 23,630 = 410 只有在最后成交价口径下成立)与 8月10日开盘行情中“昨结算 23,980”的标注三方独立印证,而另一口径自身“均价 23,982.48 / 收盘 23,980”的并列恰恰说明其填入的是结算价——其实际后果是收盘距核心区间上沿 24,100 仅 60 元而非 120 元、高于 MA60 299 元而非 239 元,即阻力更近、位置更高;其二是本简报连续两日标注为唯一未观测变量的8月7日周五夜盘现已观测,且答案指向空方:AL2608 / AL2609 / AL2610 分别开于 23,980 / 24,005 / 24,010,相对各自结算价 +20 / +25 / +30,但相对各自日盘收盘价 −20 / −35 / −30,在本季度最利多的美国就业数据之后没有出现跳空高开——这正是本简报周日设定的“应正式归类为非宏观”的那个结果(局限:仅有开盘价,无夜盘收盘 ⊘);其三是氧化铝口径确认为期货,且结论否定本简报既有判断:AO2609 8月7日收 2,699(日跌 7),周开 2,627、周高 2,728、周涨 78 元(约 +2.97%),高于 SMM 自身 2,600–2,650 的预期区间上沿,“中期成本下移”予以下调,且其含义必须双向陈述——一阶抬高铝价地板(利多),二阶压缩冶炼利润、削弱维持高铝水比例的动力从而可能带来铸锭回补(利空);与此同时,空方栏在多头最强的那一栏——库存——里加重了:LME 库存总量仍降至 256,400 吨(月降 16.0%、连续 29 日),但自 7月24日以来首次刷新的结构显示注销仓单由 14,750 吨降至 13,250 吨(−10.17%)而可用仓单持平于 244,650 吨,即总量在降而其后的提货队列在缩短;国内同向且更直接——周度去库幅度进一步收窄(−2.0 万吨),铝棒库存转为累积(+4,000 吨),铝棒加工费回落、替代需求走弱;宏观侧中国 7 月 CPI +0.5%(预期 +0.8%,1 月以来最慢)、PPI +3.5%(预期 +3.8%,三个月最低)双双低于预期,对工业金属是需求侧最直接的确认,其标准对冲是政策响应概率上升(二阶变量,权重更低);而SMM 自身给出的下周伦铝区间 3,100–3,250 美元整体低于周五收盘的 3,276.50 美元,应作为一条独立记录而非评论;多头本期最干净的一胜在现货——8月7日 A00 印记恢复为 23,970 元、涨 170 元、贴水 35 元,且 23,690(8月5日)→ 23,800(8月6日)→ 23,970(8月7日)的链条自洽,本简报此前坚持并列的两个 A00 口径冲突就此解决(23,690 属 8月5日,被误记为 8月6日),但现货涨 170 元对期货涨 205 元意味着贴水扩大而非收窄,即现货确认方向、未确认幅度,而佛山升水 80 元是全国唯一在期货之上成交的区域(华东贴水 30、华中贴水 160),再次说明该机制对区域价差的支撑强于对绝对价格的支撑;净判定为本期驱动由多转平偏空(利多 11 项 / 利空 13 项)——并非多头逻辑破裂,而是其三条支柱在重新测量后各自弱了一档:去库幅度在收窄、LME 去库的前瞻队列在缩短、成本端方向反转;因此今日的可证伪问题只有一条,且被更正后的收盘价推得更近:在 24,100 仅剩 60 元、而夜盘已相对收盘价低开的前提下,日盘能否以收盘价站上核心区间上沿,还是“国内盘面在非农之后未能跳空”才是这两个信号中更具信息量的那一个。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  1. 24,100 的第二次测试——更正后仅剩 60 元,本轮最直接的技术分水岭: 更正后的 8月7日收盘为 24,040,距核心区间上沿仅 **60 元(此前记录为 120 元),周内高点 24,130 已两次触及该区域。** 关注今日能否以收盘价站上 24,100:站上则区间上沿转为支撑,上方看 24,200(SMM 预期区间上沿);失败则形成第二次拒绝,下方验证位依次为 23,980(8月7日结算价、亦为夜盘参考位)、23,875(8月7日开盘)、23,835(8月7日低点)、23,741(MA60)。
  2. 8月10日(今日)社会库存周度印记——本期最重要的单一数据: 上期印记 93.3 万吨(8月6日),周度去库幅度已由 −2.5 万吨收窄至 −2.0 万吨,同时铝棒库存转为累积 +4,000 吨。 关注三个互斥结果:去库幅度回升(多头机制未受损)、进一步收窄(边际减速确认)、或转为累库(库存栏应由利多改判为中性)。
  3. LME 注销仓单能否回升——判断去库“剩余跑道”的唯一直接指标: 8月6日注销仓单由 14,750 吨降至 **13,250 吨(−10.17%),可用仓单持平于 244,650 吨。** 关注注销仓单是否重新增加:若继续下降而总库存仍在减,则说明减少来自到期提货而非新增提货意愿,应下调 LME 去库的前瞻强度;若回升,则本期的结构性担忧可以撤回。
  4. 氧化铝 AO2609 能否守住 2,650 上方——成本端方向已反转,需确认其持续性: 8月7日收 2,699,周涨 78 元,高于 SMM 预期区间 2,600–2,650 的上沿,持仓周内减少 9,529 手。 关注两点:价格能否维持在 2,650 之上;以及持仓是否随价格同步回升。 增价减仓的氧化铝上行,其成本支撑的可持续性应打折扣(此为解读)。
  5. 8月12日美国 7 月 CPI: 非农已把 9 月按兵不动概率推至 60%(加息约 40%),CPI 是决定该概率继续上行还是回补的直接输入;时薪同比已降至 3.2%。 同时关注 FedWatch 口径冲突能否解决——“8月9日 45.1% 按兵不动”与周四印记完全相同,本简报未予采纳。 但请注意第四节的既定判断:宏观栏为背景变量,除非 CPI 出现极端读数。
  6. 8月16日前后的霍尔木兹免费通行窗口到期,以及伊朗要价的变化: 窗口依据 6月17日备忘录的 60 天期限到期,费用问题未决;8月9日伊朗已将条件扩大至停止军事行动、解除制裁与赔偿,并表态协议达成不等于海峡立即重开。 关注三项可证伪节点:窗口是否延期、是否公布任何费用机制、以及Kpler 通行量能否自 8月5日的 8 艘/日回升。
  7. 现货能否把周五的 205 元涨幅确认为贴水收窄: 8月7日 A00 23,970(+170),贴水由 30 扩大至 35;华东贴水 30、华中贴水 160、佛山升水 80。 关注华东能否转为升水、华中贴水能否收窄、以及佛山升水能否扩大。 若仅佛山升水扩大而华东华中不动,仍应判定为“紧张体现在区域价差而非绝对价格”。
  8. AL2610 的持仓增长能否延续——本期唯一的“增价增仓”证据: 8月7日 AL2610 持仓大增 12,796 手至 182,871 手,而 AL2609 仅增 1,787 手、AL2608 减 3,110 手。 关注远月持仓是否继续增加:若持续,则本轮上行存在新增头寸支撑,可部分修正此前“空头回补”的解读;若停滞,则移仓换月的解释更为自然。

1 · Market Performance

Important correction: SHFE AL2609’s August 7 close was not 23,980 — that figure is the settlement price

  • This brief has recorded SHFE AL2609’s August 7 close as 23,980, +145. That is the **settlement price, not the last trade.** Three independent sources establish it.
  • First, SHFE’s August 7 closing report: **AL2609 close 24,040, change +205, settlement reference 23,980, high 24,130, low 23,835, volume 151,302 lots, open interest 241,543 (+1,787) — volume and open interest match the other caliber exactly.**
  • Second, the August 3–7 weekly report: **AL2609 weekly open 23,600, high 24,130, low 23,460, close 24,040, weekly change +410 on 723,481 lots.** 24,040 − 23,630 (the July 31 close this brief itself carried) = 410, which **reconciles only on the last-trade caliber.**
  • Third, the August 10 opening report labels **23,980 explicitly as the previous SETTLEMENT.**
  • The other caliber’s own fields corroborate the reading: it reports an **average price of 23,982.48 alongside a “close” of 23,980, and SHFE settlement is the volume-weighted average.** Both numbers are real, they are different fields, and **this brief used the wrong one and corrects it here.**
  • The same correction applies backwards: **August 6’s AL2609 CLOSE was 23,810, +45 (open 23,785, high 23,905, low 23,740, volume 143,802, open interest 239,756), and the 23,835 carried here was that day’s settlement.**

The corrected August 7 caliber

  • AL2609: open 23,875, high 24,130, low 23,835, **close 24,040, +205 (+0.86%) against the August 6 settlement of 23,835; settlement 23,980, average 23,982.48; volume 151,302 lots, open interest 241,543 (+1,787).**
  • AL2608: close 24,000, +195; high 24,075, low 23,810; volume 8,990, open interest 25,495 (−3,110); settlement 23,960.
  • AL2610: close 24,040, +200; high 24,130, low 23,840; volume 86,103, open interest **182,871 (+12,796); settlement 23,980.**
  • Week (August 3–7): **+410 yuan, about +1.74%.**
  • Moving averages remain the August 6 caliber and are now **two sessions stale: MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741.** On the corrected caliber the August 7 close sits **299 above MA60 (+1.26%), not the 239 recorded here.**
  • Core range 23,500–24,100: the corrected close finished **60 beneath the top, not 120.**

Key new item: the August 7 Friday night session is now observed — the one gap this brief flagged for two consecutive days

  • It opened **21:00 Beijing on August 7, thirty minutes after the BLS release, and belongs to the August 10 trading day. It is the domestic board’s first pricing of payrolls.**
  • Opening prices: **AL2608 23,980, AL2609 24,005, AL2610 24,010.**
  • Against their own **settlements: +20 / +25 / +30 — all higher.**
  • Against their own **day-session closes: −20 / −35 / −30 — all three opened lower.**
  • The restraint that must accompany this: the sources consulted give **only the opening prices — no night-session close, range, volume or open interest ⊘.** This is an opening tick, not a completed session.

Confirmed: LME

  • August 7: **$3,276.50, +$7.05 (+0.22%) (TE); month +4.31%, year +25.26%; Q3 forecast $3,309.69, 12-month $3,507.82.**
  • Parallel calibers: $3,273 (+0.11%); $3,270 (+3).
  • August 6 cash: **$3,260/mt, +0.97% from $3,228.50; three-month bid $3,258, offer $3,260; Asian reference $3,259 (+0.55%).**
  • SMM technical caliber (carried, stale): MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41; core range $3,200–3,350. Against MA60 the close is 2.18% below.
  • New and worth its own line: **SMM’s forward ranges for next week are SHFE 23,200–24,200 and LME $3,100–3,250.** The LME band sits **entirely below Friday’s close of $3,276.50.**

Interpretation

  • The correction is not cosmetic. On the right caliber, **the rejection at the range top was shallower than reported (60 below, not 120) and the position within the rebound is higher (299 above MA60).** Both point the same way: resistance is nearer and there is more room beneath.
  • The night session answered in the bears’ favor. On Sunday this brief set the test explicitly: “a gap higher that holds means the macro channel onshore is still open; a flat open or a fade replicates LME’s torpor onshore.” The result was **all three contracts opening below their own closes — after the most bullish US labour print of the quarter.**
  • Its limit must be stated with it: **only opens are confirmed, with no night-session close ⊘.** The evidence is directional, not conclusive.
  • Position: at 24,040 the close is in the **upper part of the rebound, 60 below the core-range top — a resistance zone, not a support zone.** The first level beneath is 23,980, which is both the settlement and the night session’s reference.

Major clarification: the alumina caliber is confirmed, and it settles against this brief’s standing view

  • AO2609 (August 7): **close 2,699, −7 on the day, volume 146,167 lots, open interest 162,442 (−9,529).**
  • Week (August 3–7): **open 2,627, high 2,728, low 2,621, close 2,699, +78 (about +2.97%) on 896,706 lots.**
  • The “2,698, −0.11%” print carried yesterday with an unstated caliber is therefore **confirmed as the futures caliber and supersedes the 2,621 this brief has carried since July 31.**
  • Industry average full cost near 2,530; SMM’s expected band 2,600–2,650, with a possible temporary break below 2,600 flagged for August. The August 7 close of 2,699 is **above the top of that band.**
  • Overseas: **Platts alumina $347/mt, +0.70% (August 6); 30,000 mt at $356/mt FOB East Australia for September loading (August 5); bauxite $70–75/mt.**

Spot and related

  • A00 aluminum ingot (the August 7 print is recovered): **23,970 yuan/mt, +170, at a discount of 35 (Changjiang caliber); a second caliber records +180.**
  • The caliber conflict is resolved: **23,690 (August 5) → 23,800 (August 6, +110 d/d and +170 against the previous Thursday) → 23,970 (August 7, +170) is internally consistent at every step.** So 23,690 was the **August 5 print and was mis-dated to August 6 here; both figures were always real.**
  • August 6 regional detail (new): East China A00 **23,800, +110, discount 30; Central China A00 23,670, discount 160; Foshan A00 23,910, +110, PREMIUM 80.**
  • SMM A00 weekly average (August 3–7): **23,680 yuan/mt, +1.4% w/w.**
  • ADC12: **24,200 yuan/mt (August 6), flat w/w →; August 7 spot +50; overseas offers $3,050–3,190/mt; import loss about 800 (August 6) to 827 yuan/mt (August 7); import window closed.**
  • AD2610 (August 7): morning-session close 23,520, +55 (+0.23%), volume 6,114 lots, open interest 18,342 (+307). A midday caliber.
  • Foshan scrap spreads (August 6): A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap **2,240 yuan/mt; versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt.**
  • Crude: Brent **$83.55 on August 7, +1.29%; more than −7% on the week; month +7.09%, year +25.47%.**
  • US dollar index: **99.625, +0.0862 (+0.09%) on the Monday Asia caliber, against 99.539 (−0.39%) on August 7; month −1.59%, year +1.12%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76.**

Interpretation: the cost side reversed sign, and it must be stated in both directions

  • This brief’s “alumina’s medium-term direction is lower cost” view is **contradicted by the data this period and is downgraded, not defended.** Three readings point the same way: +78 on the week, a 2,728 weekly high, and a close above SMM’s own expected band.
  • But its implication for aluminum is **not one-directional, and both sides belong here.**
  • Bullish side: rising alumina raises smelter full cost and therefore **raises the floor under aluminum.**
  • Bearish side: **rising cost compresses smelter margin, and margin is one of the preconditions for this brief’s core bullish mechanism (a rising liquid-aluminum ratio and falling ingot casting).** When margin compresses, the incentive to maximise on-site liquid conversion weakens and **ingot casting can be restored — the opposite of shrinking deliverable metal.**
  • On spot: A00 rose 170 yuan on a day the futures close rose 205, so **the discount widened slightly rather than narrowing.** Spot **confirms the direction but not the full magnitude.**
  • The regional structure is the highest-information line in this section: **Foshan at a premium of 80 is the only region in China transacting above futures, against East China at a discount of 30 and Central China at 160.** That is where structural tightness is actually visible — not in the national average.
  • The dollar’s Monday tick to 99.625 (+0.09%) takes back part of Friday’s −0.39%. A **background variable, weighted as Section 4 sets out.**

3 · Inventory

Confirmed: the totals are still falling

  • LME aluminum stocks: **256,400 mt on August 7, −16.0% over thirty days, falling for 29 consecutive sessions; thirty-day range 256,400–305,200 mt.**
  • SHFE aluminum warrants (August 7): **307,008 mt, −1,795 d/d, −13,216 (−4.13%) w/w, −87,020 (−22.08%) m/m.** A second caliber records 308,803 mt, −2,598, on August 6.
  • China aluminum ingot social inventory: **933,000 mt (August 6 Thursday print), −20,000 mt week-on-week, or −25,000 against the Monday caliber.** Today’s (August 10) weekly print had **not appeared at the time of writing ⊘.**

New and adverse: the structure is deteriorating even as the totals fall

  • The LME warrant split **refreshed for the first time since July 24 (August 6 caliber): total stocks fell from 260,900 to 259,400 mt (−0.57%); cancelled warrants fell from 14,750 to 13,250 mt (−10.17%); live (on-warrant) tonnage was UNCHANGED at 244,650 mt.**
  • A third caliber records August 6 LME stocks at 257,900 mt, −1,500. All three are carried and **not reconciled ⊘.**
  • SMM describes this week’s destocking magnitude as **“narrowing further.”*
  • A new series, pointing the wrong way: **aluminium billet inventory BUILT about 4,000 mt week-on-week — the first inventory series in this brief adverse to the bull case.**
  • China’s cast aluminum alloy ingot social inventory **24,000 mt, a tenth consecutive weekly draw of only 200 mt.**
  • National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 mt w/w); port bauxite 940,000 mt.

Interpretation: a draw that continues, with less fuel behind it

  • Cancelled warrants are metal **already earmarked for physical withdrawal — the forward fuel for further draws.** That figure fell 10.17% while live tonnage did **not move at all.**
  • So the accurate statement is: **LME stocks are still falling, but the withdrawal queue behind them is getting shorter.** This does not negate the destocking; it **downgrades the remaining runway (interpretation).**
  • China gives the same signal, more directly: **the weekly destocking magnitude is narrowing (−20,000 mt) while billet inventory has turned to accumulation (+4,000 mt).** Billet is a principal destination for on-site liquid conversion, so **a billet build sits in tension with the narrative that a rising liquid ratio is consuming the metal.**
  • Net for this section: **still bullish, but downgraded from last period — from “the strongest single column in this brief” to “directionally bullish, weakening at the margin.”**

4 · Macro Factors

New: China’s July price data (released August 9) missed on both counts

  • CPI **+0.5% y/y against a +0.8% consensus — the slowest since January; core CPI +0.9%; month-on-month −0.1%.**
  • PPI **+3.5% y/y against a +3.8% consensus, 0.6 points slower than June and a three-month low.**
  • Reporting attributes the miss to **lower energy prices and weak demand, and notes accelerated fiscal spending in response to a slowing economy.**

Confirmed: US labour and rate pricing

  • July payrolls **fell 23,000; May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1%; participation 61.4%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y.**
  • CME FedWatch: September **hold at 60% Friday / 45% Thursday / roughly one-in-three a week earlier, implying hikes near 40% / 55% / about 67%.**
  • A caliber conflict, recorded: a separate source dated **August 9 gives a 45.1% hold (about 54.9% hike).** That value **matches the Thursday print exactly and is therefore not adopted as a post-payrolls reading ⊘.** An earlier caliber dated August 4 gives 61.9% for a 25bp hike.
  • Next FOMC: **September 16. Next US event: July CPI on August 12.**
  • Dollar index **99.625 (+0.09%, Monday Asia caliber), a partial give-back from 99.539 on August 7.**

Hormuz: the window is unchanged, but Iran raised its price

  • The fee-free window rests on the 60-day term of the June 17 US–Iran memorandum and **expires around August 16 with fees unresolved (Iran seeking roughly 5% of cargo value, the US refusing to pay any).**
  • New (August 9): **Iran insists on broader US concessions before commercial shipping fully resumes — an end to military action, sanctions relief and compensation; Tehran has also stated that a deal would not reopen the waterway immediately.**
  • Traffic data (Kpler): **only eight vessels crossed on August 5 (five tankers, three bulk carriers) against more than 100 per day before the conflict.** A tracker records the closure at **day 162.**
  • Not adopted: social-media claims that Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles struck a tanker off Oman are **unverified and carry no weight here ⊘.**
  • Energy and other: Brent $83.55 on August 7 (+1.29%), more than −7% on the week; OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September, a sixth consecutive increase; Houthi forces struck southern Saudi Arabia on August 7, injuring 11 civilians.
  • China macro (carried): July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2.

Interpretation

  • China’s PPI carries two meanings and they must be separated. For an industrial metal, **a PPI decelerating 0.6 points and missing consensus is the most direct available confirmation of the demand-side bear case — and it points the same way as the processing operating rate, the processing PMI and the secondary operating rate this brief has recorded for several periods.**
  • The standard offset: **the weaker the inflation print, the higher the probability of a fiscal and monetary response, and reporting already describes accelerated fiscal spending.** But policy expectation is a **second-order variable and should rank below current demand data.**
  • This brief maintains Section 4’s standing judgment: **the macro column is a background variable, not the primary driver.** The night session — all three contracts opening below their closes — **supports that classification rather than weakening it.**
  • What changed on Hormuz is not the date but **the asking price.** Moving from “fees” to “end military action + sanctions relief + compensation” **raises the bar for a complete agreement materially, and with it the uncertainty around whether the August 16 window is extended or breaks.** This brief **presumes no direction.**
  • Eight vessels a day against more than 100 before the conflict is the most concrete supply-chain quantification in this period.

5 · Fundamentals

Supply (new weekly caliber)

  • New: **China’s weekly aluminum output was basically stable; the liquid-aluminum proportion rose 0.19 percentage point week-on-week.**
  • July monthly (confirmed, carried): total output **+1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m; casting ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; liquid-aluminum proportion 78.3% in July (+1.1pp) and 78.5% forecast for August (+0.2pp).**
  • Built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt (end-July); operating capacity 45.31 Mt (June caliber).
  • Ex-China: July output −6.7% y/y with the **daily average +1.6% m/m; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2; Slovalco Q4 restart (carried).**
  • Bauxite: Guinea exported a record **114.8 Mt in H1 2026, +15% y/y, while beginning to tighten exports from June.**

Alumina and cost (direction corrected — see Section 2)

  • AO2609 closed August 7 at **2,699, +78 (+2.97%) on the week, with a 2,728 weekly high — above the top of SMM’s 2,600–2,650 expected band.**
  • Industry average full cost near 2,530; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 mt w/w); H1 2026 alumina imports 2.277 Mt (+749.1% y/y).

Demand (two new readings; direction unchanged)

  • Processing operating rate **60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; secondary aluminum operating rate 49.4%.**
  • New: **billet processing fees have pulled back; replacement demand has weakened; the market is in the traditional consumption off-season with operating rates under pressure.**
  • PV: module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August, with the **August schedule edging up month-on-month, underpinning frame production starts.**
  • Exports (carried): June unwrought aluminum and semis exports 711,000 mt (+45.4% y/y), H1 cumulative 3.396 Mt (+16.3%); June extrusion exports a monthly record (+29.7% y/y); June primary aluminum imports about 167,000 mt (−19.7% m/m, −13.1% y/y).

Interpretation

  • The “China is producing more aluminum and fewer ingots” mechanism is **not overturned this period, but its marginal momentum keeps decelerating: the liquid ratio rose +0.19 point week-on-week and is forecast +0.2 point for August, both far below July’s +1.1 points.**
  • This period’s two new demand readings — **billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened — corroborate the billet inventory build of 4,000 mt, and together they form one chain: downstream capacity to absorb liquid aluminum is weakening.**
  • If that chain persists, its consequence is clear: **the rising liquid ratio meets a downstream bottleneck, ingot casting is restored, and the shrinking-deliverable-metal mechanism weakens (interpretation, not fact).**
  • The cost side has reversed sign (alumina +78 on the week), and its **second-order effect on the bull mechanism is negative — margin compression reduces the incentive to sustain a high liquid ratio.** That coexists with the **first-order bullish effect of a higher cost floor; only reporting one side would be incomplete.**

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

The August 7 print is recovered, and the caliber conflict is resolved

  • A00 (August 7): **23,970 yuan/mt, +170, at a discount of 35 (Changjiang caliber); a second caliber records +180.**
  • The chain is internally consistent: **23,690 (August 5) → 23,800 (August 6, +110) → 23,970 (August 7, +170).** This brief mis-dated 23,690 to August 6 and corrects it here; **both numbers were real.**
  • August 6 by region: East China **23,800, +110, discount 30; Central China 23,670, discount 160; Foshan 23,910, +110, premium 80.**
  • SMM A00 weekly average (August 3–7): **23,680 yuan/mt, +1.4% w/w.**
  • East China sentiment (August 6, carried): selling 3.10 (+0.01), purchasing 2.86 (+0.06).
  • The Central China sentiment conflict remains **unresolved for a fourth consecutive period; no day-on-day change is derived from it ⊘.**
  • Foshan scrap spreads (August 6): A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap 2,240 yuan/mt; versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt.
  • Trading sentiment: the market is described as **wait-and-see to selective — downstream buying to immediate need in the off-season, with traders more willing to buy at discounted levels (carried from the August 6 review).**

Interpretation

  • Spot **confirmed Friday’s direction but not its magnitude: A00 +170 against a futures close of +205, so the discount widened.**
  • The most valuable line here is the regional structure: **Foshan’s premium of 80 makes it the only region in China transacting above futures, against East China at −30 and Central China at −160.** The regional spread (Foshan minus Central China = 240 yuan) says more about **where tightness sits than the national average does.**
  • This brief’s standing methodological judgment gains another piece of evidence: **the mechanism supports basis and regional spreads more strongly than it supports outright price.**

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (11)

  • The corrected August 7 SHFE close is **24,040, +205 (+0.86%), leaving it only 60 yuan below the 24,100 core-range top.**
  • The week (August 3–7) gained **410 yuan, about +1.74%, on 723,481 lots with a 24,130 weekly high.**
  • The close sits **299 above MA60 (23,741), +1.26% — a second consecutive close above it.**
  • AL2610 open interest rose **12,796 lots to 182,871 — fresh positioning in a deferred contract.**
  • LME stocks **256,400 mt (August 7), −16.0% over 30 days, 29 consecutive sessions of draw; SHFE warrants −22.08% month-on-month — deliverable inventory shrinking on both exchanges.**
  • Alumina rose **78 yuan (+2.97%) on the week to 2,699, above the top of SMM’s expected band — the cost floor has moved up.**
  • A00 rose **170 yuan on August 7 to 23,970; the SMM A00 weekly average rose 1.4%.**
  • Foshan A00 at a **premium of 80, the only region above futures; Foshan scrap spreads hold at 2,240 / 1,030.**
  • July casting ingot output **−15.1% y/y; liquid ratio 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August — deliverable-form metal is still contracting.**
  • US July payrolls −23,000 with revisions of −103,000 take September hike odds to about 40%; TE raised its Q3 ($3,309.69) and 12-month ($3,507.82) aluminum forecasts while cutting its 12-month dollar forecast to 97.76.
  • Hormuz: the fee-free window **expires around August 16 with fees unresolved; Iran has widened its demands to an end to military action, sanctions relief and compensation; only 8 vessels crossed on August 5 against 100+/day before the conflict; the closure is at day 162; Houthi forces struck southern Saudi Arabia on August 7.**

Bearish factors (13)

  • The night session **did not gap higher on payrolls: AL2608 / AL2609 / AL2610 opened −20 / −35 / −30 against their own day-session closes.**
  • LME cancelled warrants fell from 14,750 to **13,250 mt (−10.17%) while live warrants were unchanged at 244,650 — the forward fuel for further draws is shrinking.**
  • SMM’s own forward LME range of **$3,100–3,250 sits entirely below Friday’s close of $3,276.50.**
  • The weekly destocking magnitude is **narrowing further (−20,000 mt w/w against the −25,000 mt Monday caliber).**
  • A new adverse series: **aluminium billet inventory built about 4,000 mt; cast alloy ingots drew only 200 mt.**
  • China’s July **CPI +0.5% (vs +0.8% expected, slowest since January) and PPI +3.5% (vs +3.8% expected, a three-month low) — a double miss.**
  • Cost-side second-order effect: rising alumina **compresses smelter margin, and margin is a precondition for sustaining a high liquid ratio — which could restore ingot casting.**
  • The liquid-ratio gain is decelerating: **+0.19 point week-on-week and +0.2 point forecast for August, against +1.1 points in July.**
  • China’s July total output was **+1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m, and weekly output is basically stable — more aluminum is being produced.**
  • Two new same-direction demand readings — **billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened — on top of a 60.1% and falling processing rate, a 42.2 processing PMI with all seven sub-sectors contracting, a 49.4% secondary rate, and ADC12 flat with the import window closed.**
  • The ex-China margin has turned to supply growth: July daily-average output **+1.6% m/m; EGA restarting; Slovalco in Q4; Guinea’s record 114.8 Mt of H1 bauxite exports (+15% y/y).**
  • Spot did not fully confirm: A00 +170 against a futures close of +205, so **the discount widened; East China remains at −30 and Central China at −160.**
  • The dollar index ticked back up to **99.625 (+0.09%) on Monday; OPEC+ raises output 188,000 bpd from September, a sixth consecutive increase, further weakening energy-cost support.**

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Three open questions closed this period and two of them closed against this brief, which must be stated directly: the first is this brief’s own caliber error — **SHFE AL2609’s August 7 close was 24,040, +205 (+0.86%), and 23,980 is the settlement price — established independently by SHFE’s closing report (close 24,040 / settlement reference 23,980, with volume and open interest identical to the other caliber), by the weekly report (weekly close 24,040, +410, where 24,040 − 23,630 = 410 reconciles only on the last-trade caliber) and by the August 10 opening report’s explicit “previous settlement 23,980,” while the other caliber’s own pairing of an average of 23,982.48 with a “close” of 23,980 shows it is populating the settlement field — the practical consequence being that the close sat 60 beneath the 24,100 core-range top rather than 120 and 299 above MA60 rather than 239, so resistance is nearer and the position higher; the second is the variable this brief flagged for two consecutive days as its only unobserved one — the August 7 Friday night session is now observed and it answers in the bears’ favor: AL2608 / AL2609 / AL2610 opened at 23,980 / 24,005 / 24,010, higher than their settlements by +20 / +25 / +30 but lower than their own day-session closes by −20 / −35 / −30, with no gap higher after the most bullish US labour print of the quarter — precisely the outcome Sunday’s brief set as the test that “should formally classify aluminum’s driver as non-macro” (limit: only opens are confirmed, with no night-session close ⊘); the third is the alumina caliber, now confirmed as futures and contradicting this brief’s standing view: AO2609 closed August 7 at 2,699 (−7), with a weekly open of 2,627, a 2,728 high and a gain of 78 yuan (about +2.97%), above the top of SMM’s own 2,600–2,650 band, so the “medium-term cost moving lower” view is downgraded and its meaning stated in both directions — first-order it raises the floor under aluminum (bullish), second-order it compresses smelter margin and weakens the incentive to sustain a high liquid-aluminum ratio, which could restore ingot casting (bearish); meanwhile the bear column gained weight inside the bulls’ strongest section, inventory: LME totals are still falling to 256,400 mt (−16.0% over thirty days, 29 straight sessions), but the split refreshed for the first time since July 24 and shows cancelled warrants down from 14,750 to 13,250 mt (−10.17%) with live warrants unchanged at 244,650 — totals falling while the withdrawal queue behind them shortens; China gives the same signal more directly — the weekly destocking magnitude is narrowing further (−20,000 mt), aluminium billet inventory has turned to accumulation (+4,000 mt), billet processing fees have pulled back and replacement demand has weakened; on macro, China’s July CPI at +0.5% (vs +0.8% expected, the slowest since January) and PPI at +3.5% (vs +3.8% expected, a three-month low) both missed, which for an industrial metal is the most direct confirmation of the demand-side bear case, with the standard offset that a weaker print raises the probability of a policy response (a second-order variable, weighted lower); and SMM’s own forward LME range of $3,100–3,250 sits entirely below Friday’s close of $3,276.50, recorded as data rather than commentary; the bulls’ cleanest win this period was spot — the August 7 A00 print is recovered at 23,970, +170, at a discount of 35, and the chain 23,690 (August 5) → 23,800 (August 6) → 23,970 (August 7) is internally consistent, resolving the two-caliber A00 conflict this brief refused to reconcile (23,690 belonged to August 5 and was mis-dated here) — but spot’s +170 against the futures’ +205 means the discount widened rather than narrowed, so spot confirms direction and not magnitude, while Foshan’s premium of 80 makes it the only region in China trading above futures (East China −30, Central China −160), again showing the mechanism supports regional spreads more than outright price; net, the driver balance tips from bullish to flat-to-bearish for the first time in several periods (11 bullish against 13 bearish) — not because the bull case broke, but because three of its supports were re-measured a notch weaker: the destocking magnitude is narrowing, the LME draw’s forward queue is shortening, and the cost-side direction reversed; today therefore poses one clean falsifiable question, made sharper by the corrected close: with 24,100 now only 60 yuan away and the night session having opened below the close, does the day session take the range top on a closing basis, or is “the domestic board failed to gap on payrolls” the more informative of the two signals?*

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  1. The second test of 24,100 — only 60 yuan away after the correction, and the clearest technical dividing line of this cycle: The corrected August 7 close of 24,040 sits **60 below the core-range top (this brief previously recorded 120), and the 24,130 weekly high has now touched that zone twice.** Watch whether today can close **above 24,100: a close above turns the top into support with 24,200 (the top of SMM’s forward band) above; a failure marks a second rejection, with 23,980 (the settlement and the night session’s reference), 23,875 (the August 7 open), 23,835 (the August 7 low), and 23,741 (MA60) as the verification levels beneath.**
  2. Today’s (August 10) weekly social inventory print — the single most important data point of this period: The last print was 933,000 mt (August 6), the **weekly draw has already narrowed from −25,000 to −20,000 mt, and billet inventory has turned to a 4,000 mt build.** Watch three mutually exclusive outcomes: a re-accelerating draw (the bull mechanism is intact), a further narrowing (marginal deceleration confirmed), or an outright build (the inventory column should be re-rated from bullish to neutral).
  3. Whether LME cancelled warrants recover — the only direct read on the draw’s remaining runway: On August 6 cancelled warrants fell from 14,750 to **13,250 mt (−10.17%) while live warrants were unchanged at 244,650.** Watch whether cancellations resume: if they keep falling while total stocks decline, the decline reflects expiring withdrawals rather than fresh withdrawal intent, and **the forward strength of the LME draw should be downgraded; if they recover, this period’s structural concern can be withdrawn.**
  4. Whether alumina AO2609 holds above 2,650 — the cost direction has reversed and its persistence needs confirming: The August 7 close was 2,699, +78 on the week, **above the top of SMM’s 2,600–2,650 band, with open interest down 9,529 lots over the week.** Watch two things: whether price holds above 2,650, and whether open interest recovers with it. An alumina advance on falling open interest should have its cost-support durability discounted (interpretation).
  5. US July CPI on August 12: Payrolls already took September hold odds to 60% (hikes near 40%); CPI is the direct input deciding whether that keeps rising or is taken back, with wage growth already at 3.2% y/y. Watch also whether the FedWatch caliber conflict resolves — the “45.1% hold as of August 9” matches the Thursday print exactly and has not been adopted here. But note Section 4’s standing judgment: **the macro column is a background variable absent an extreme reading.**
  6. The Hormuz fee-free window expiring around August 16, and the change in Iran’s asking price: The window rests on the June 17 memorandum’s 60-day term and fees remain unresolved; **as of August 9 Iran has widened its conditions to an end to military action, sanctions relief and compensation, and has said a deal would not reopen the waterway immediately.** Three falsifiable checkpoints: whether the window is extended; whether any fee mechanism is announced; and **whether Kpler’s traffic count recovers from 8 vessels on August 5.**
  7. Whether spot converts Friday’s 205-yuan advance into a narrowing discount: August 7’s A00 was 23,970 (+170) with **the discount widening from 30 to 35; East China −30, Central China −160, Foshan +80.** Watch whether East China turns to a premium, whether Central China’s discount narrows, and **whether Foshan’s premium widens.** If only Foshan widens while East and Central China stand still, the reading remains “tightness expressed in regional spreads, not in outright price.”
  8. Whether AL2610’s open-interest growth continues — this period’s only price-up-on-rising-OI evidence: On August 7 AL2610 open interest rose **12,796 lots to 182,871, while AL2609 added only 1,787 and AL2608 shed 3,110.** Watch whether deferred-month positioning keeps building: if it does, the advance has fresh-length support and this brief’s earlier “short covering” reading can be partly revised; if it stalls, a roll from the September into the October contract is the more natural explanation.

Sources: cnal.com / 世铝网, 8月7日上海期货收盘行情（周五） (AL2609 close 24,040, change +205, settlement reference 23,980, high 24,130, low 23,835, volume 151,302 lots, open interest 241,543, +1,787; AL2608 close 24,000, +195, high 24,075, low 23,810, volume 8,990, open interest 25,495, −3,110, settlement 23,960; AL2610 close 24,040, +200, high 24,130, low 23,840, volume 86,103, open interest 182,871, +12,796, settlement 23,980; alumina AO2609 close 2,699, −7, volume 146,167 lots, open interest 162,442, −9,529); cnal.com / 世铝网, 8月3日～8月7日上海期货每周行情 (AL2609 weekly open 23,600, high 24,130, low 23,460, close 24,040, weekly change +410, volume 723,481 lots, open interest 241,543; alumina AO2609 weekly open 2,627, high 2,728, low 2,621, close 2,699, weekly change +78, volume 896,706 lots, open interest 162,442); cnal.com / 世铝网, 8月10日上海期货开盘行情 (the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 7, being the start of the August 10 trading day: AL2608 open 23,980 against previous settlement 23,960, +20; AL2609 open 24,005 against previous settlement 23,980, +25; AL2610 open 24,010 against previous settlement 23,980, +30; the report defines the change as today’s opening price minus yesterday’s settlement price and notes the 2608 contract is the spot contract); SMM via news.smm.cn, 2026年8月7日上期所主力合约成交情况 (沪铝2609 开盘23875.00,最高24130.00,最低23835.00,均价23982.48,收盘23980.00,涨145.00,成交量151302,持仓量241543.00,日增仓1787.00 — recorded here as the settlement/average caliber, with the average of 23,982.48 and the “close” of 23,980 reconciling to SHFE’s volume-weighted settlement); 金投网 / cngold.org, 微观数据难有实际利多表现 铝价上涨高度将受限 (August 6 caliber: SHFE main contract close 23,810, +45, range 23,740–23,905, volume 143,802 lots, open interest 239,756; East China A00 23,800, +110, premium/discount −30; Central China A00 23,670, premium/discount −160; Foshan A00 23,910, +110, premium +80; domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory 933,000 mt, −25,000; exchange warrants 308,803 mt, −2,598; LME aluminum inventory 257,900 mt, −1,500); 长江铝业网 via Mysteel aggregation (August 7 A00 aluminum ingot 23,970 yuan/mt, +170, discount 35); cnal.com market page (August 7 A00 average 23,970, +180; LME three-month $3,270, +3); TradingEconomics aluminum page (August 7 close $3,276.50, +$7.05 (+0.22%), previous close $3,269.45; month +4.31%, year +25.26%; Q3 forecast $3,309.69, 12-month $3,507.82; commentary on six-week highs, ex-China output −6.7% y/y in July from reduced Middle East smelter operating rates, China’s 45 Mt cap, LME stocks at the lowest this century, Hormuz disruption affecting roughly 9% of global supply, and planned Slovalco Q4 and EGA restarts); AlCircle, LME aluminium cash prices recover to $3,260/t while stocks continue downward (August 6 caliber: cash $3,260/mt, +0.97% from $3,228.50; three-month bid $3,258, offer $3,260; Asian reference $3,259, +0.55%; total stocks 260,900 → 259,400 mt, −0.57%; cancelled warrants 14,750 → 13,250 mt, −10.17%; live warrants unchanged at 244,650 mt; Platts alumina $347/mt, +0.70%); The Vault Report LME aluminum warehouse inventory page (256.4K mt as of August 7; −16.0% over 30 days; 29 consecutive trading sessions of decline; 30-day range 256.4K–305.2K mt); AlCircle/SMM press release, Weekly aluminium ingot destocking magnitude contracts, under the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in macro fundamentals, the aluminium price is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term (August 9: SHFE expected range 23,200–24,200 yuan/mt and LME expected range $3,100–3,250/mt next week; China’s aluminium social inventory down 20,000 mt week-on-week and 25,000 mt against the Monday caliber, with the destocking pace “narrowing further”; aluminium billet inventory up about 4,000 mt week-on-week; China’s weekly aluminium production basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion up 0.19 percentage point week-on-week; overseas supply expected to continue rising on new project ramp-ups and resumptions; downstream in the traditional off-season with operating rates under pressure, billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened); AlCircle/SMM press release, PV module scheduled production slightly up M-o-M underpins frame production starts (August 9: SMM A00 weekly average price 23,680 yuan/mt for August 3–7, +1.4% week-on-week; August PV module production schedule expected to edge up month-on-month from July; SHFE 23,200–24,200 and LME $3,100–3,250 forward ranges); SMM/SHFE warrant data (August 7: SHFE aluminum futures warrants 307,008 mt, −1,795 d/d, −13,216 mt or 4.13% w/w, −87,020 mt or 22.08% m/m); SMM aluminum ingot inventory series (August 6 Thursday 933,000 mt; August 3 Monday 958,000 mt; July 30 953,000 mt; July 27 979,000 mt; July 23 1,006,000 mt; July 20 1,022,000 mt); CGTN, Chinadaily, Business Recorder and BigGo Finance reporting on China’s National Bureau of Statistics July data released August 9 (CPI +0.5% y/y against a +0.8% consensus, the slowest since January; core CPI +0.9%; CPI −0.1% month-on-month; PPI +3.5% y/y, 0.6 points slower than June and below a +3.8% consensus, a three-month low; attributed to lower energy prices and weak demand, with leaders accelerating fiscal spending); TradingEconomics US dollar page (99.625, +0.0862 (+0.09%); month −1.59%, year +1.12%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76; commentary that nonfarm payrolls “unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while substantial downward revisions to the previous two months pointed to a weakening labor market,” with unemployment edging down to 4.1% as participation continued declining); CNBC and associated CME FedWatch reporting (September hold probability 60% after the report, 45% on Thursday and roughly one-in-three a week earlier); centralbank.watch and secondary FedWatch aggregation (next FOMC September 16, 2026; a 45.1% hold caliber dated August 9 and a 61.9% 25bp-hike caliber dated August 4 — the former not adopted as a post-payrolls reading); BLS, The Employment Situation — July 2026 (payrolls −23,000; May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1% from 4.2%; participation 61.4%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y); TradingEconomics Brent crude page (August 7 $83.55, +1.29%, more than −7% on the week; month +7.09%, year +25.47%); Reuters via Yahoo Finance and IndexBox (OPEC+ core seven raising collective output by 188,000 bpd from September, a sixth consecutive increase); The National (August 7 Houthi strike on southern Saudi Arabia injuring 11 civilians; the June 17 US–Iran memorandum establishing a 60-day fee-free negotiating window, Iran seeking roughly 5% of cargo value and the US refusing); Gulf News, CNN live coverage of August 8, FreightWaves and straits.live (Iran setting new conditions for a Hormuz reopening as of August 9 — an end to military action, sanctions relief and compensation — and stating a deal would not reopen the waterway immediately; Kpler recording only eight vessels crossing on August 5, five tankers and three bulk carriers, against more than 100 per day before the conflict; a tracker recording the closure at day 162); Euronews and Bloomberg (August 5: Iran and Oman agreeing the geographical coordinates of a proposed shipping route, with a joint statement covering technical, legal, security and environmental points under final review and a proposed joint coordination centre; the proposed routes to be used for two to four months or longer); AlCircle/SMM (China’s July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July, +1.1pp, and 78.5% forecast for August; casting ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt at end-July; July ex-China output −6.7% y/y with the daily average +1.6% m/m; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2; ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt flat w/w with the August 7 spot quote +50, overseas offers $3,050–3,190/mt, import loss about 800–827 yuan/mt with the window closed, secondary aluminium operating rate 49.4%, cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt with a 200 mt weekly draw, Foshan A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap 2,240 yuan/mt and versus shredded tense scrap 1,030 yuan/mt; AD2610 August 7 morning-session close 23,520, +55, volume 6,114 lots, open interest 18,342, +307); AlCircle analysis of H1 2026 (Guinea exporting a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y, while beginning to tighten exports from June; H1 2026 alumina imports 2.277 Mt, +749.1% y/y); carried unchanged from prior briefs: SMM’s LME technical caliber (MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41, MACD DIF −6.0545 / DEA −25.1982 / histogram 38.2874, core range $3,200–3,350); SHFE MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741, MACD DIF 93.4473 / DEA −3.5285 / histogram 193.9515, core range 23,500–24,100; SHFE cast aluminum alloy warrants 17,553 mt on August 3; industry average alumina full cost near 2,530 with SMM’s expected band 2,600–2,650; 30,000 mt at $356/mt FOB East Australia for September loading on August 5; bauxite $70–75/mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w; downstream processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; China’s operating capacity 45.31 Mt as of June; June unwrought aluminum and semis exports 711,000 mt, +45.4% y/y, with H1 cumulative 3.396 Mt, +16.3%; June extrusion exports a monthly record, +29.7% y/y; June primary aluminum imports approximately 167,000 mt, −19.7% m/m and −13.1% y/y; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; the Fed’s July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote; East China sentiment selling 3.10 and purchasing 2.86 on August 6; the unresolved Central China sentiment conflict; Slovalco’s Q4 restart. Data calibers: THE CENTRAL CORRECTION: SHFE AL2609’s August 7 last trade was 24,040 (+205 against the August 6 settlement of 23,835) and 23,980 was that day’s SETTLEMENT price; this brief previously recorded 23,980/+145 as the close and corrects it here, with the same correction applied backwards to August 6, whose close was 23,810 (+45) against a settlement of 23,835; the settlement caliber and the last-trade caliber are both real and are never netted; where a percentage is quoted for the August 7 session it is computed as 24,040 against the August 6 settlement of 23,835; the August 7 night session is confirmed for OPENING PRICES ONLY — no night-session close, range, volume or open interest appears in the sources consulted, and the comparison of those opens against the day-session closes (−20 / −35 / −30) is arithmetic on confirmed figures while the inference drawn from it about aluminum’s reaction function is interpretation; the alumina caliber question raised in the August 9 brief is resolved: the 2,698/2,699 print is the AO2609 FUTURES contract, and 2,699 supersedes the 2,621 of July 31 that this brief has carried; the A00 caliber conflict carried since August 6 is resolved by the recovered August 7 print: the chain 23,690 (August 5) → 23,800 (August 6) → 23,970 (August 7) is internally consistent, so 23,690 was mis-dated to August 6 in prior briefs; both figures were always real; three August 6 LME stock calibers exist (259,400 mt, 257,900 mt, and the 256,400 mt August 7 figure) and are carried without reconciliation; the LME cancelled/live warrant split refreshed on the August 6 caliber for the first time since July 24 and supersedes the 245,350 mt on-warrant figure carried previously; two SHFE warrant calibers exist (307,008 mt on August 7 and 308,803 mt on August 6) and both are recorded; the SHFE warrant series, the LME stock series and the SMM social inventory series are three distinct calibers and are never netted or summed; the August 10 social inventory print had not appeared in the sources consulted at the time of writing; the “45.1% hold as of August 9” FedWatch caliber matches the Thursday print exactly and is NOT adopted as a post-payrolls reading; the dollar index figure of 99.625 is a live Monday Asia-session caliber, not a completed daily close; SHFE moving averages, MACD and the core range remain the August 6 caliber and are two sessions stale; the AD2610 figure of 23,520 is a morning-session close, not a full-day close; the Hormuz fee-free window’s expiry “around August 16” is derived from the reported June 17 memorandum plus its stated 60-day period; the exact expiry date is not stated in the source and the derivation is labeled as such; as of writing no Iran–Oman joint statement text has been published, no final memorandum has been signed, no fee mechanism has been announced, and no reopening of the Strait has been reported; social-media claims of Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles striking a tanker off Oman are unverified and are given no weight; this brief writes before the August 10 SHFE day session settles and contains no intraday August 10 price. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout.

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