Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

SHFE clears the top of its range at 24,165 as China's destock re-accelerates to 917kt. Spot lags and the basis blows out.沪铝突破区间上沿至 24,165,中国去库再度加速至 91.7 万吨;现货跟涨不足,基差大幅走阔。

Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Tuesday August 11 (Asia), 08:54 Beijing, before the SHFE day session opens. The August 11 trading day began with the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on Monday August 10 and closed 01:00; that session is complete and its opens, ranges, volumes and open-interest changes are confirmed, but it carries no close or settlement because the trading day has not finished. SHFE AUGUST 10 DAY SESSION, from the exchange's own daily file and therefore on the LAST-TRADE caliber this brief corrected to yesterday: AL2609 open 24,005, high 24,165, low 23,920, CLOSE 24,165, settlement 24,035, change +185 against the previous settlement of 23,980 (+0.77%) and +125 against the corrected previous close of 24,040 (+0.52%); volume 132,277 lots (down from 151,302 on August 7), open interest 240,859, DOWN 684. AL2608: open 23,980, high 24,115, low 23,890, close 24,110, +150, settlement 24,005, volume 8,755, open interest 22,080 (−3,415). AL2610: open 24,010, high 24,185, low 23,925, close 24,180, +200, settlement 24,050, volume 70,882, open interest 194,303 (+11,432) — a second consecutive large build. AL2611 close 24,165, +195, open interest 55,638 (+1,063); AL2612 close 24,140, +190; AL2701 close 24,125, +195. Whole-product open interest 610,071, +9,059 on volume of 239,579. Every listed contract from AL2608 to AL2707 closed above 24,000. NIGHT SESSION (opened 21:00 August 10, belongs to the August 11 trading day): AL2609 open 24,180, high 24,195, low 24,095, volume 43,805, open interest 241,808 (+949); AL2608 open 24,100, high 24,135, low 24,075, volume 1,125, open interest 21,745 (−335); AL2610 open 24,200, high 24,220, low 24,115, volume 24,245, open interest 198,225 (+3,922); AL2611 open 24,200; AL2612 open 24,220. Whole-product night open interest 614,705, +4,634 on 75,372 lots. Measured against their own day-session CLOSES the three actives opened +15, −10 and +20 — AL2609 and AL2610 ABOVE, AL2608 marginally below; measured against settlements, +145, +95 and +150. This is the mirror image of the Friday night session recorded yesterday, where all three opened below their closes. A pre-open SMM quote for the main continuous carried 24,190, +155 (+0.64%). MOVING AVERAGES remain the August 6 caliber and are now FOUR sessions stale: MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741; on those stale values the August 10 close sits +425 above MA5, +623 above MA10, +974 above MA30 and +424 (+1.79%) above MA60. MACD August 6 caliber: DIF 93.4473 above DEA −3.5285. Core range 23,500–24,100 — now breached at the top. ALUMINA, AUGUST 10: AO2609 open 2,697, high 2,712, low 2,684, close 2,696, settlement 2,699, −2 (−0.07%), volume 151,478, open interest 151,189 (−11,253); AO2610 close 2,694, −5, volume 111,624, open interest 222,765 (+16,136) — AO2610's open interest now EXCEEDS AO2609's, so the alumina main contract is rolling to October. Night session: AO2609 open 2,692, high 2,696, low 2,675, open interest +1,248; AO2610 open 2,690, open interest 236,188 (+13,423). ALUMINA SPOT, ALL FLAT ON AUGUST 10: SMM alumina index 2,696.18, −1.34; Shandong 2,710, Henan 2,740, Shanxi 2,730, Guangxi 2,625, Guizhou 2,765, Lianyungang 2,865 — every region unchanged day-on-day. Australian alumina FOB $346/mt, unchanged (against Platts $347 on August 6). Industry average full cost near 2,530. LME, AUGUST 10, two calibers both recorded: the official/Westmetall caliber gives CASH settlement $3,327.50 (+$48.00 from $3,279.50) and THREE-MONTH $3,320.50 (+$40.50 from $3,280.00), so the cash-to-3M spread flipped from a $0.50 contango on August 7 to a $7.00 BACKWARDATION; the TradingEconomics caliber gives $3,336.25, +$59.75 (+1.82%), previous close $3,276.50, month +5.72%, year +29.09%, Q3 forecast $3,309.69, 12-month $3,507.82. SMM's own reporting describes a sixth consecutive higher session and a seven-week high, attributed to continued inventory declines. The SMM technical caliber (MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41; core range $3,200–3,350) is carried and stale — on it, cash at $3,327.50 sits $21.91 BELOW MA60 and three-month $28.91 below, so MA60 and the range top are the immediate overhead. SMM's forward band of $3,100–3,250 for the week, recorded yesterday, was breached upward on the first session. INVENTORY: LME aluminium stocks 254,900 mt on August 10, −1,500 d/d, a thirtieth consecutive session of draw; reporting describes LME stocks as the lowest this century. The cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since the August 6 caliber (cancelled 13,250 mt, −10.17%; live 244,650 mt unchanged) and is carried stale ⊘. CHINA INGOT SOCIAL INVENTORY, THE CENTRAL NEW PRINT: 917,000 mt on August 10 (Monday caliber), −16,000 mt against Thursday August 6's 933,000 and −41,000 mt against Monday August 3's 958,000. The Monday-to-Monday series now reads 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10), so the weekly magnitude went −21,000 then −41,000; the Thursday series reads 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6). ALUMINIUM BILLET INVENTORY, CONFLICTING CALIBERS, BOTH RECORDED: the SMM billet social-inventory series gives 122,000 mt (Aug 3) → 123,500 (Aug 6) → 132,500 (Aug 10), a build of 10,500 mt on the Monday caliber and 9,000 mt against Thursday; a separate SMM morning-meeting caliber describes the billet build as 'about 4,000 mt week-on-week'. The two are not reconciled ⊘. OUTBOUND FLOWS, August 3–9: ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w; billet outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 w/w. Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt, a tenth consecutive weekly draw of 200 mt. SHFE aluminium warrants were not retrievable for August 10 at the time of writing ⊘; the last confirmed figure is 307,008 mt on August 7 (−1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m). National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w); port bauxite 940,000 mt. SPOT, AUGUST 10, SMM regional table: Shanghai A00 23,990 (range 23,980–24,000), +10; Central China 23,890, +20; Foshan 24,150, +60; Wuxi 23,960, +10; Hangzhou 24,020, flat; Chongqing 23,950, flat; Shenyang 23,890, flat; Tianjin 23,990, +60; Linyi 23,990, +10. A Changjiang caliber gives 23,960–24,000, average 23,980, +10. Against AL2608's close of 24,110 the implied East China basis is −120, Central China −220, Foshan +40; SMM's own quoted premium/discount figure for August 10 was not retrieved ⊘. For comparison the August 7 basis was about −30 with a quoted discount of 35, and Foshan's quoted premium on August 6 was +80. A carried SMM morning-meeting caliber describes Central China at a discount of 120–160 to the 2608 contract and South China at a premium of 0–10 with transactions at 65–105 over 2608. SECONDARY: AD2610 August 10 close 23,560, +80, settlement 23,495, volume 6,284, open interest 18,957 (+468); AD2609 close 23,485, +95, open interest 6,053 (−80); night session AD2610 open 23,560, high 23,590, open interest +230. SMM describes the alloy futures session as +0.43% with spot trading light and wait-and-see. ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt (August 6 caliber, carried), import window closed with a loss near 800–827 yuan/mt; secondary aluminium operating rate 49.4%. COST AND MARGIN, carried from an August 4 caliber: average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt, average profit 6,719 yuan/mt, with the entire domestic industry described as profitable. MACRO: US dollar index 99.753 on the August 11 Asia caliber, −0.0628 (−0.06%); it edged up to 99.7 on Monday after a 0.4% weekly decline that took it to a two-month low; month −1.46%, year +1.69%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76. Fed pricing, two calibers both recorded and NOT reconciled ⊘: a TradingEconomics caliber dated August 11 puts September hike odds near 46%, down from 64% a week earlier; the FedWatch caliber carried yesterday puts a hold at 60% and therefore a hike near 40%. Next FOMC September 16. US JULY CPI IS TOMORROW, Wednesday August 12: consensus +0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y against June's 3.5%, with core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y against June's 2.6%; prediction markets are described as clustering on a tamer print. US July payrolls fell 23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y. China July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected and PPI +3.5% against +3.8% expected, both carried. ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS, MATERIAL ESCALATION ON AUGUST 10: Brent $87.95 on the August 11 caliber, +0.27%, a FOURTH consecutive higher session, month +5.59%, year +33.02%, Q3 forecast $85.58 — up from $83.55 on August 7. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr issued a SIX-POINT ultimatum stating the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the United States 'corrects its behaviour': end the naval blockade of Iranian ports, lift sanctions, release frozen Iranian assets, withdraw US forces from around Iran, compensate Tehran for war damage, and end hostilities and threats against Iran and its regional allies. President Trump rejected it on Monday and counter-demanded that Iran compensate victims of attacks he attributes to Tehran, adding a new condition; reporting describes the talks as stalled and hopes for a quick agreement as fading. Iran is separately reported to have reshuffled its military leadership. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is reported at its lowest since 1983. The fee-free transit window under the June 17 memorandum still expires around August 16. OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September. SUPPLY: China's weekly electrolytic aluminium output described as basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion rising; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July, 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt, operating capacity 45.31 Mt; China's 45 Mt capacity cap is described in reporting as increasingly binding. Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y, attributed in reporting to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026. NEW TO THIS BRIEF, dated July 16 and carried: Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt, a reduction of 200,000–300,000 mt, after instability at the Pinjarra refinery from late March was compounded by gas-supply disruption from Cyclone Narelle; aluminium production and shipment guidance was left unchanged. Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end, EGA Al Taweelah ongoing (89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2). Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y. DEMAND: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees have pulled back and replacement demand has weakened in the traditional off-season. Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
SHFE AL2609 (Aug 10) Close 24,165, +185 (+0.77%) on settlement, +125 on the close. CLEARS the 24,100 range top
Why it matters Also 35 above the Aug 3–7 weekly high of 24,130. Whole curve to AL2707 closes above 24,000
THE NIGHT SESSION — reversed AL2609 opened 24,180, ABOVE its own close of 24,165. High 24,195, OI +949
Versus Friday night Friday: −35 on the close. Monday: +15. The 'non-macro' call must be softened
DESTOCK RE-ACCELERATES 917,000 mt (Aug 10 Monday), −41,000 w/w against −25,000 prior. Not narrowing — nearly doubled
LME cash (Aug 10) $3,327.50, +$48.00. Sixth straight higher session, seven-week high
LME structure FLIPS Cash over 3M by $7.00 — a backwardation, against a $0.50 contango on Aug 7
SMM's own forward band $3,100–3,250 for the week — breached upward on day one
LME stocks 254,900 mt, −1,500, a 30th consecutive draw; described as lowest this century
BUT — A00 rose 10 yuan Shanghai 23,990 (+10) against a front-month close of 24,110
East China basis Blows out from about −30 to −120 in one session
Central China / Foshan 23,890 (−220 basis) / 24,150 (+40, premium compressed from 80)
AL2609 open interest FELL 684 on the breakout day; volume 132,277 vs 151,302. Less participation, not more
Where the build went AL2610 +11,432 (day) and +3,922 (night) — the far month, not the front
Alumina spot — FLAT SMM index 2,696.18, −1.34; every region unchanged. Cost floor stable, not rising
Billet inventory 132,500 mt, +10,500 w/w (Monday caliber); billet outbound −6,000 w/w
Ingot outbound (Aug 3–9) 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w — the demand read that matches the ingot draw
HORMUZ ESCALATES Iran's six-point ultimatum; Trump rejects and counter-demands compensation. Talks stalled
Brent $87.95, fourth straight higher session, from $83.55 on Aug 7
US July CPI TOMORROW, Aug 12. Consensus 3.4% y/y headline, 2.5% core

一 · 行情表现

核心事实:核心区间上沿被突破,且发生在第一次尝试而非第二次

  • AL2609(8月10日,上期所口径,采用本简报昨日更正后的“最后成交价”字段): 开 24,005,高 24,165,低 23,920,收 24,165;结算 24,035。
  • 涨跌:较前结算价 23,980 涨 185 元(+0.77%);较更正后的前收盘价 24,040 涨 125 元(+0.52%)。
  • 位置:高于核心区间上沿 24,100 达 65 元;高于 8月3日–7日周高 24,130 达 35 元。
  • 成交 132,277 手(8月7日为 151,302 手,下降);持仓 240,859 手,减少 684 手。

其余合约:整条曲线全部收于 24,000 之上

  • AL2608:开 23,980,高 24,115,低 23,890,收 24,110,+150;结算 24,005;成交 8,755 手,持仓 22,080 手(−3,415)。
  • AL2610:开 24,010,高 24,185,低 23,925,收 24,180,+200;结算 24,050;成交 70,882 手,持仓 **194,303 手(+11,432)——连续第二个交易日大幅增仓。**
  • AL2611 收 24,165(+195),持仓 55,638(+1,063);AL2612 收 24,140(+190);AL2701 收 24,125(+195)。
  • 品种合计:持仓 **610,071 手(+9,059),成交 239,579 手。**
  • AL2608 至 AL2707 **全部 12 个挂牌合约收盘价均在 24,000 元之上。**

夜盘:与上周五完全相反(8月10日 21:00 开盘,属今日交易日)

  • AL2609:开 **24,180,高 24,195,低 24,095;成交 43,805 手,持仓 241,808 手(+949)。**
  • AL2610:开 **24,200,高 24,220,低 24,115;成交 24,245 手,持仓 198,225 手(+3,922)。**
  • AL2608:开 24,100,高 24,135,低 24,075;成交 1,125 手,持仓 21,745(−335)。
  • AL2611 开 24,200;AL2612 开 24,220。品种合计夜盘持仓 **614,705 手(+4,634),成交 75,372 手。**
  • 对各自日盘收盘价:AL2609 +15、AL2610 +20、AL2608 −10。 对各自结算价:+145 / +150 / +95。
  • 这是上周五夜盘的镜像:上周五三个合约相对收盘价分别 −35 / −30 / −20。
  • 盘前 SMM 主连报价 **24,190,+155(+0.64%)。**

确认:伦铝(两个口径并列)

  • 官方 / Westmetall 口径(8月10日):现货结算 3,327.50 美元,涨 48.00 美元;三个月 3,320.50 美元,涨 40.50 美元。
  • 结构翻转:现货较三个月升水 7.00 美元(backwardation),而 8月7日为贴水 0.50 美元(contango)。
  • TE 口径:3,336.25 美元,+59.75(+1.82%),前收 3,276.50;月 +5.72%、年 +29.09%;三季度预测 3,309.69、十二个月 3,507.82。
  • SMM 报道:连续第六个交易日上涨,触及七周高点,归因于库存持续下降。
  • SMM 技术口径(延续,已滞后):MA5 3,227.70、MA10 3,199.45、MA30 3,164.40、MA60 3,349.41;核心区间 3,200–3,350 美元。 现货 3,327.50 仍低于 MA60 21.91 美元,三个月低 28.91 美元。
  • 本简报昨日单列的 **SMM 下周区间 3,100–3,250 美元,在第一个交易日即被向上击穿。**

解读

  • 昨日本简报提出的唯一可证伪问题是“第二次测试能否站上 24,100”。 答案是:在第一次尝试中就站上了,且是以收盘价站上,并同时越过上周周高。
  • 但突破的质量必须与突破的事实分开陈述:成交量由 151,302 手降至 132,277 手,近月持仓减少 684 手。 在参与度下降的情况下突破区间,其最常见的解释是空头回补,而非新增多头(此为解读)。
  • 全部净增仓集中于 **AL2610(日盘 +11,432、夜盘 +3,922),而 AL2608 减仓 3,415 手——移仓换月可以解释其中相当一部分。**
  • 均线口径已滞后四个交易日,仅作参照:收盘高于 MA5 425 元、MA10 623 元、MA30 974 元、MA60 424 元(+1.79%)。 技术位置属本轮反弹的绝对高位区,且上方在观测数据内已无参考位(最高为夜盘 AL2610 的 24,220)。
  • 伦铝的关键位是 MA60 3,349.41 美元 ≈ 核心区间上沿 3,350 美元,两者重合,现货距其仅 21.91 美元。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

本期最重要的对立证据:现货几乎没动

  • SMM 分区域(8月10日):
  • 上海 A00 **23,990 元/吨(区间 23,980–24,000),+10 元。**
  • 华中 **23,890,+20 元;佛山 24,150,+60 元;无锡 23,960(+10);天津 23,990(+60);临沂 23,990(+10)。**
  • 杭州 24,020、重庆 23,950、沈阳 23,890——三地日环比零变动。
  • 长江口径:23,960–24,000,均价 **23,980,+10 元。**
  • 基差(对 AL2608 收盘价 24,110):华东 −120、华中 −220、佛山 +40。
  • 对比:8月7日基差约 **−30(报价贴水 35);8月6日佛山升水 80。**
  • ⊘ SMM 官方口径的 8月10日升贴水数值未取得,以上基差为按收盘价计算的推算值。

氧化铝:期货微跌,现货全线持平

  • AO2609(8月10日):开 2,697、高 2,712、低 2,684,收 2,696,跌 2 元(−0.07%);结算 2,699;成交 151,478 手,持仓 **151,189 手(−11,253)。**
  • AO2610:收 2,694,跌 5 元;成交 111,624 手,持仓 **222,765 手(+16,136)。** 注:AO2610 持仓已超过 AO2609,氧化铝主力正在向 10 月合约切换。
  • 夜盘:AO2609 开 2,692、高 2,696、低 2,675(低于日盘收盘),持仓 +1,248;AO2610 开 2,690,持仓 236,188(+13,423)。
  • 现货(8月10日,全线持平):SMM 氧化铝指数 **2,696.18,跌 1.34 元;山东 2,710、河南 2,740、山西 2,730、广西 2,625、贵州 2,765、连云港 2,865——六地日环比全部零变动。**
  • 澳洲氧化铝 FOB **346 美元/吨,持平(8月6日 Platts 口径为 347 美元)。**
  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨。

铝合金与其他

  • AD2610(8月10日):收 23,560,+80 元;结算 23,495;成交 6,284 手,持仓 18,957(+468)。 AD2609 收 23,485,+95;夜盘 AD2610 开 23,560、高 23,590,持仓 +230。
  • SMM 描述:铝合金期货收涨 0.43%,现货交投偏淡、观望为主。
  • ADC12 **24,200 元/吨(8月6日口径,延续);进口亏损约 800–827 元/吨,进口窗口关闭;再生铝开工率 49.4%。**
  • 原油:Brent **87.95 美元(8月11日口径),+0.27%,连续第四个交易日上涨;月 +5.59%、年 +33.02%。** 8月7日为 83.55 美元。
  • 美元指数:99.753,−0.0628(−0.06%);周一小幅回补至 99.7 附近,此前一周下跌 0.4% 至两个月低点;月 −1.46%、年 +1.69%。

解读:一个现货不肯买单的突破

  • 本节的核心不是任何单一价格,而是幅度的不对称:期货涨 125–185 元,现货涨 10–60 元。
  • 其直接结果是基差在突破当日反向扩大:华东由约 −30 扩至 −120。 这与“区间突破”所应有的现货表现方向相反。
  • 佛山一栏尤其值得注意:绝对价格上涨 240 元(23,910 → 24,150),但升水由 80 元压缩至约 40 元。 本简报此前多期将“佛山升水”作为结构性紧张的最清晰证据,该证据在本期被削弱,而非增强。
  • 成本端:本简报昨日基于氧化铝期货周涨 78 元将成本栏上调为利多。 本期现货给出的答案是持平而非上行——成本地板稳定在较 7月31日的 2,621 更高的位置,但当前并未继续抬升。 该项应由“上行”修正为“企稳于高位”。
  • 氧化铝主力换月(AO2610 持仓 222,765 > AO2609 151,189)意味着后续应以 **AO2610 为跟踪口径。**

三 · 库存

本期最重要的单一数据:周度去库幅度不是收窄,而是接近翻倍

  • 中国电解铝锭社会库存(8月10日周一口径):91.7 万吨。
  • 较周四(8月6日)93.3 万吨减少 1.6 万吨;较上周一(8月3日)95.8 万吨减少 4.1 万吨。
  • 周一序列:97.9 万吨(7月27日)→ 95.8 万吨(8月3日,周减 2.1 万吨)→ 91.7 万吨(8月10日,周减 4.1 万吨)。
  • 周四序列:95.3 万吨(7月30日)→ 93.3 万吨(8月6日)。
  • ⚑ 本简报昨日引用 SMM“去库幅度进一步收窄”的表述并据此下调库存栏。 本期数据否定该表述:幅度由 −2.1 / −2.5 万吨扩大至 **−4.1 万吨,为本简报所载序列中最陡的一周。**

LME

  • 库存 **254,900 吨(8月10日),日减 1,500 吨,连续第 30 个交易日下降;报道描述为本世纪最低水平。**
  • ⊘ 注销 / 可用仓单结构自 8月6日口径以来未刷新(注销 13,250 吨、可用 244,650 吨),沿用且已滞后,昨日提出的“前瞻燃料收缩”问题本期无法验证。
  • ⊘ 上期所铝仓单 8月10日数值撰写时未取得。 最后确认值:307,008 吨(8月7日),日减 1,795、周减 13,216(−4.13%)、月减 87,020(−22.08%)。

铝棒与出库量:方向不利,且口径存在冲突

  • 铝棒社会库存:12.2 万吨(8月3日)→ 12.35 万吨(8月6日)→ 13.25 万吨(8月10日),周一口径周增 1.05 万吨,较周四增 0.9 万吨。
  • ⊘ 口径冲突:另有 SMM 早会口径描述铝棒“周增约 4,000 吨”。 两者不作调和,并列记录。
  • 出库量(8月3日–8月9日):铝锭出库 12.42 万吨,周增 0.77 万吨;铝棒出库 2.75 万吨,周减 0.6 万吨。
  • 中国铸造铝合金锭社会库存 **2.4 万吨,连续第十周去库,本周仅减 200 吨。**
  • 全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨);港口铝土矿 94 万吨。

解读

  • 本节是本期多头最强的一栏,且强度较上期上调(上期为“方向利多、边际转弱”)。
  • 但必须同时给出结构性限定:铝锭去库加速,而铝棒累库加速。 铝棒出库周减 6,000 吨与铝棒库存周增 10,500 吨互相印证,方向一致。
  • 正确表述:金属正在更快地离开铝锭仓库,更慢地离开铝棒仓库。 净金属仍在减少,但去库的下游承接质量在下降(此为解读)。
  • 铝锭出库量周增 7,700 吨,是本简报近两周最好的一条需求读数,它与去库加速方向一致,不应被忽略。
  • LME 侧:总量续降至 254,900 吨且现货转为升水 7 美元——升水是“即期紧张”的价格,它是本期唯一一条无法用持仓结构解释的伦铝证据。

四 · 宏观因素

霍尔木兹:8月10日出现实质性升级

  • 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书 Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr 提出六点最后通牒,称海峡将保持关闭,直至美国“纠正其行为”:
  • (1)结束对伊朗港口的海上封锁;(2)解除制裁;(3)解冻并归还伊朗资产;(4)从伊朗周边撤出美军;(5)就战争损失向德黑兰赔偿;(6)停止对伊朗及其地区盟友的敌对行动与威胁。
  • 特朗普于周一拒绝该方案,并反向要求伊朗对其所归咎于德黑兰的袭击受害者作出赔偿,构成一项新增条件。
  • 报道描述谈判已陷入停滞,达成快速协议的希望正在消退;伊朗另有军方高层人事调整的报道。
  • 免费通行窗口仍于 **8月16日前后到期(依 6月17日备忘录 60 天期限)。** 美国战略石油储备被报道为 **1983 年以来最低。**

美国:CPI 在明日

  • 7 月 CPI 将于 **8月12日(周三) 公布。** 市场预期:同比 +3.4%(6 月 +3.5%)、环比 +0.1%;核心同比 +2.5%(6 月 +2.6%)、环比 +0.2%;预测市场倾向于更温和的读数。
  • ⊘ 联储定价口径冲突,并列且不作调和:TE 口径(8月11日)9 月加息概率约 46%,一周前为 64%;本简报昨日采用的 FedWatch 口径为按兵不动 60%(加息约 40%)。
  • 下次 FOMC:9月16日。
  • 延续:7 月非农 −2.3 万人,5、6 月合计下修 10.3 万人;失业率 4.1%;平均时薪同比 +3.2%。
  • 美元指数 **99.753(−0.06%);周一由两个月低点小幅回补。**

中国与能源(延续)

  • 中国 7 月 **CPI +0.5%(预期 +0.8%)、PPI +3.5%(预期 +3.8%),双双低于预期。**
  • 7 月出口同比 +23%,顺差 1,125 亿美元;NBS 与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。
  • Brent **87.95 美元,连续第四个交易日上涨;OPEC+ 核心七国自 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日。**

解读

  • 霍尔木兹一栏在本期由“要价抬高”升级为谈判停滞 + 双向新增条件。 其含义是:免费窗口于 8月16日到期时,达成协议的概率显著低于一周前(此为解读)。
  • 该变化对铝的传导路径是间接但真实的:能源成本(Brent 四连涨)、中东电解铝厂运行率(7 月境外产量同比 −6.7% 的归因之一)、以及海运与升水结构。
  • 宏观栏的整体定位本期由“背景变量”上调半档至“次要驱动”,理由是地缘一栏出现了可量化的方向性变化,而非仅仅是日期临近。
  • 但美元与联储定价本期仍为中性:美元几乎未动,两个联储口径互相矛盾,明日 CPI 是唯一能解决该矛盾的输入。
  • 中国物价数据的双重含义维持上期判断不变:PPI 回落是需求侧的直接确认(利空),政策响应概率上升是二阶变量(权重更低)。

五 · 基本面

供应

  • 国内:周度电解铝产量基本持平,铝水比例继续上升;7 月总产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%,铸锭产量同比 −15.1%;铝水比例 7 月 78.3%、8 月预计 78.5%。
  • 建成产能约 4,629 万吨,运行产能 4,531 万吨;报道描述 4,500 万吨产能天花板的约束性正在增强。
  • 境外:7 月中国以外产量同比 **−6.7%,报道归因于多家中东电解铝厂运行率下降;某机构预计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨。**
  • 复产项目:斯洛伐克 Slovalco 四季度、美国密苏里州电解铝厂年底、EGA Al Taweelah 持续(截至 7月2日 89/1,262 槽)。
  • 成本与利润(8月4日口径,延续):行业平均完全成本 **16,252 元/吨,平均利润 6,719 元/吨,全行业盈利。**

氧化铝供应:新增一条本简报此前未载的记录

  • ⚑ 新增(消息日期 7月16日,本简报首次记录):美铝(Alcoa)将 2026 年氧化铝产量指引由 970–990 万吨下调至 950–960 万吨,减少 20–30 万吨。
  • 原因:Pinjarra 精炼厂 3 月下旬起的运行不稳定,叠加飓风 Narelle 造成的天然气供应中断;该厂其后已恢复正常,但产量缺口无法完全弥补。 电解铝产量与出货指引维持不变。
  • 几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨(同比 +15%),但自 6 月起收紧出口;港口铝土矿 94 万吨;全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨)。

需求

  • 加工开工率 **60.1% 且下行;SMM 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个板块全部收缩;再生铝开工率 49.4%。**
  • 铝棒加工费回落、替代性需求走弱,处于传统消费淡季。
  • 光伏:组件排产 7 月 38.5 GW → 8 月 39.3 GW。
  • 新增两条流量读数:铝锭出库 12.42 万吨(周增 0.77 万吨)** 对 铝棒出库 2.75 万吨(周减 0.6 万吨)。**
  • 现货交投:SMM 描述铝合金现货交投偏淡、观望为主。

解读

  • 美铝下调 20–30 万吨氧化铝指引,是本期唯一一条全球氧化铝平衡的减量证据;它属于成本地板栏,尽管现货价格尚未对其作出反应。
  • “中国在生产更多的铝,和更少的铝锭”这一机制本期未被推翻;但本期数据把它的下游承接侧讲得更清楚:铝锭端在加速消化,铝棒端在加速累积。
  • 两条流量读数的分化(铝锭出库 +7,700 吨 / 铝棒出库 −6,000 吨)是本期基本面最有信息量的一条,它同时支持多头的库存论与空头的加工需求论,不应只取其一。
  • 境外供应减量(7 月 −6.7% y/y、2026 年预计 −98 万吨)与复产计划(Slovalco、密苏里、EGA)方向相反且时间错位:减量是当期的,复产是四季度及以后的。

六 · 原铝现货市场

分区域(8月10日)

  • 上海 **23,990,+10(区间 23,980–24,000);无锡 23,960(+10);杭州 24,020,持平;临沂 23,990(+10);天津 23,990(+60)。**
  • 华中 **23,890,+20;重庆 23,950,持平;沈阳 23,890,持平。**
  • 佛山 **24,150,+60。**
  • 推算基差(对 AL2608 收盘 24,110):华东 −120、华中 −220、佛山 +40。
  • 延续口径(SMM 早会):华中对 2608 贴水 120–160;华南升水 0–10,成交在 2608 之上 65–105。
  • ⊘ SMM 官方 8月10日升贴水数值未取得;⊘ 华东出货 / 采购意愿指数 8月10日印记未取得(最后为 8月6日:出货 3.10、采购 2.86)。

解读

  • 本节结论只有一句:在期货以收盘价站上核心区间上沿的当日,现货三地基差全部反向扩大。
  • 杭州、重庆、沈阳三地零变动,是比“涨幅小”更强的信号——部分区域根本没有跟随报价。
  • 佛山升水由 80 元压缩至约 40 元,削弱了本简报此前多期依赖的“华南结构性紧张”论据。 需要强调:佛山绝对价格上涨 240 元,但升水压缩——两者同时成立,不矛盾,但升水才是结构指标。
  • 本简报此前的方法论判断在本期首次受到挑战:此前记录为“该机制对基差与区域价差的支撑强于对绝对价格的支撑”;本期是绝对价格上行而基差走弱,即恰好相反。 若该状态持续两个交易日以上,该方法论判断应予以修订。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(14 项)

  • 沪铝 AL2609 8月10日收 24,165,涨 185 元(+0.77%),以收盘价站上核心区间上沿 24,100(高出 65 元),并高于上周周高 24,130(高出 35 元)。
  • AL2608 至 AL2707 **全部 12 个合约收于 24,000 之上;AL2610 收 24,180(+200)。**
  • 夜盘高开于日盘收盘价之上:AL2609 开 24,180(+15)、AL2610 开 24,200(+20),夜盘高点 24,195 / 24,220,持仓分别 +949 / +3,922。
  • 中国铝锭社会库存 **91.7 万吨,周一口径周减 4.1 万吨——幅度由上周的 −2.1 万吨接近翻倍,为序列中最陡的一周。**
  • LME 库存 **254,900 吨,连续第 30 个交易日下降,报道称为本世纪最低。**
  • LME **现货结算 3,327.50 美元(+48.00),三个月 3,320.50 美元(+40.50),连续第六个交易日上涨,七周高点。**
  • LME 结构翻转:现货较三个月升水 7.00 美元(backwardation),而 8月7日为贴水 0.50 美元。
  • SMM 自身下周伦铝区间 3,100–3,250 美元在第一个交易日即被向上击穿。
  • 铝锭出库量(8月3日–9日)12.42 万吨,周增 0.77 万吨。
  • 霍尔木兹实质性升级:伊朗六点最后通牒、特朗普拒绝并反提赔偿要求、谈判停滞;免费窗口 8月16日前后到期;伊朗军方人事调整。
  • Brent **87.95 美元,连续第四个交易日上涨(8月7日为 83.55);美国 SPR 为 1983 年以来最低。**
  • 新增:美铝将 2026 年氧化铝产量指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨(Pinjarra + 飓风 Narelle)。
  • 境外供应:7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%(归因于中东电解铝厂运行率下降);某机构预计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨;4,500 万吨产能天花板约束性增强。
  • 7 月铸锭产量同比 −15.1%,铝水比例 78.3% → 8 月预计 78.5%,可交割形态金属继续收缩;AD2610 收 23,560(+80)。

利空因素(10 项)

  • ⚑ 本期最重要的一条:现货几乎没有跟随——A00 上海仅涨 10 元至 23,990,华中 +20、佛山 +60,而杭州、重庆、沈阳零变动。
  • 基差在突破当日反向扩大:华东由约 −30 扩至 −120、华中 −220;佛山升水由 80 元压缩至约 40 元。
  • AL2609 在突破当日持仓减少 684 手,成交量由 151,302 手降至 132,277 手——在参与度下降的情况下突破,更符合空头回补而非新增多头。
  • 增仓集中于 AL2610(+11,432),而 AL2608 减仓 3,415 手——移仓换月可解释其中相当一部分。
  • 氧化铝现货全线持平(SMM 指数 2,696.18,−1.34;六地零变动;澳洲 FOB 346 美元持平)——成本地板企稳而非上行,本简报昨日的“成本上行”应下调半档。
  • 铝棒库存 **13.25 万吨,周一口径周增 1.05 万吨;铝棒出库周减 6,000 吨;⊘ 另一口径称周增约 4,000 吨,存在冲突。**
  • 伦铝仍低于 MA60(3,349.41 美元)21.91 美元,即七周高点仍未收复中期均线,核心区间上沿 3,350 美元与 MA60 重合。
  • 需求侧读数未变且仍弱:加工开工率 60.1% 且下行、加工 PMI 42.2(七板块全收缩)、再生铝开工 49.4%、铝棒加工费回落、传统淡季;铝合金现货交投偏淡观望。
  • 中国 7 月 CPI +0.5%、PPI +3.5%,双双低于预期;⊘ LME 注销仓单结构自 8月6日未刷新,“前瞻燃料收缩”问题本期无法证伪。
  • 复产与增产:Slovalco 四季度、密苏里年底、EGA 持续;几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创 1.148 亿吨纪录;OPEC+ 自 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日。

八 · 一句话观点

昨日本简报提出的唯一可证伪问题在一个交易日内得到回答,而且是以最干脆的方式:AL2609 8月10日收 24,165,涨 185 元(+0.77%),不是在第二次尝试、而是在第一次尝试中就以收盘价站上核心区间上沿 24,100(高出 65 元),并同时越过上周周高 24,130,AL2608 至 AL2707 全部 12 个合约收于 24,000 之上;与此同时,本简报昨日记录的五条空方证据中有四条被同一个交易日逆转,这一点必须直接承认——其一,夜盘做出了上周五的镜像:AL2609 开 24,180、AL2610 开 24,200,分别高于各自日盘收盘价 15 元与 20 元,夜盘高点 24,195 / 24,220,持仓 +949 / +3,922,因此“未跳空、故归类为非宏观”的判定在连续两晚给出相反答案后应被认定为被过度赋权;其二,去库幅度不是收窄而是接近翻倍:社会库存 91.7 万吨,周一口径周减 4.1 万吨(上周为 −2.1 万吨),周一序列 97.9 → 95.8 → 91.7,为本简报所载序列中最陡的一周,SMM“进一步收窄”的表述与本简报据此作出的库存栏下调均被数据否定;其三,SMM 自身给出的下周伦铝区间 3,100–3,250 美元在第一个交易日即被向上击穿——现货结算 3,327.50 美元(+48.00)、三个月 3,320.50 美元,连续第六个交易日上涨,七周高点,库存 254,900 吨为连续第 30 日下降;其四,也是结构上最值得注意的一条,伦铝现货对三个月由 0.50 美元的贴水翻转为 7.00 美元的升水,而升水是即期紧张的价格,是本期唯一一条无法用持仓结构解释的伦铝证据;然而,未被逆转的那一条恰恰是本简报两周以来一直主张的真正检验项——现货没有跟随:A00 上海仅涨 10 元至 23,990,华中 +20 至 23,890,佛山 +60 至 24,150,而杭州、重庆、沈阳日环比零变动,对 AL2608 收盘价 24,110 计算,华东基差由约 −30 一日之内扩大至 −120,华中扩大至 −220,佛山升水由 80 元压缩至约 40 元——期货涨 125–185 元,现货涨 10–60 元,这是一次现货不肯买单的突破;两条机械细节强化而非削弱这一判断:AL2609 在突破当日持仓减少 684 手、成交量由 151,302 手降至 132,277 手,而全部净增仓集中在 AL2610(日盘 +11,432、夜盘 +3,922),AL2608 反而减仓 3,415 手,移仓换月可解释其中相当一部分;成本端亦未给出确认——氧化铝现货六地全线持平(SMM 指数 2,696.18,−1.34;澳洲 FOB 346 美元持平),故昨日“成本上行”的上调应修正为企稳于高位,唯一的新增减量证据是美铝将 2026 年氧化铝指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨(Pinjarra 运行不稳定叠加飓风 Narelle 断气),该项尚未反映在现货价格中;流量数据给出本期最有信息量的分化——铝锭出库 12.42 万吨(周增 7,700 吨)对铝棒出库 2.75 万吨(周减 6,000 吨),铝棒库存增至 13.25 万吨(周一口径周增 10,500 吨,另一口径称 4,000 吨,并列不作调和),即金属正在更快地离开铝锭仓库、更慢地离开铝棒仓库;宏观侧地缘一栏出现可量化的方向性变化——伊朗最高国家安全委员会提出六点最后通牒(结束封锁、解除制裁、归还资产、撤军、赔偿、停止敌对),特朗普于周一拒绝并反向要求伊朗赔偿,谈判被描述为已陷停滞,Brent 连续第四日上涨至 87.95 美元,而美元 99.753 几乎未动、两个联储口径(46% 对 40%)互相矛盾,明日 8月12日的美国 7 月 CPI(预期同比 +3.4%、核心 +2.5%)是唯一能解决该矛盾的输入;净判定由上期的偏空转回偏多(利多 14 项 / 利空 10 项),但多头栏的构成已发生变化且这比数量更重要——它现在几乎完全由库存、伦铝结构与地缘承载,而几乎完全不由中国现货承载;因此今日的可证伪问题比昨日更尖锐,且是一个关于确认而非方向的问题:在 24,100 已位于价格之下的前提下,基差能否开始收敛(华东自 −120、华中自 −220、佛山升水回升至 80),还是现货继续拒绝跟随——若是后者,则一次由近月减仓与扩大贴水共同承载的突破,就有了一条具体且可识别的失败路径。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  1. 基差能否收敛——本期唯一的核心确认项: 8月10日华东基差由约 −30 扩至 **−120、华中 −220、佛山升水由 80 压缩至约 40,而杭州、重庆、沈阳零变动。** 关注三个互斥结果:基差收敛(突破获得现货确认)、维持在 −100 以下(高位区背离持续)、或进一步扩大(应将本次突破明确标注为“未获现货确认”)。 优先看佛山升水能否回到 80 以上,其信息量高于全国均价。
  2. 24,100 由阻力转为支撑的第一次测试: 8月10日收 24,165(高于上沿 65 元),夜盘低点 **24,095 已短暂跌破该位。** 关注今日日盘是否以收盘价守住 24,100:守住则区间上沿完成角色转换,上方参考 24,195(夜盘高)、24,200(SMM 预期区间上沿)、24,220(AL2610 夜盘高);失守则本次突破回归假突破,下方依次为 24,035(结算)、23,980、23,920(8月10日低)。
  3. AL2609 持仓能否恢复增长——判断“空头回补 vs 新增多头”的唯一直接指标: 突破当日 AL2609 **持仓减少 684 手、成交量下降,夜盘转为 +949 手。** 关注今日日盘 AL2609 持仓方向:若持续增加且成交量回到 15 万手以上,则应上调本轮上行的可持续性;若再度减仓,则减仓上涨的解释成立,应对突破的强度打折。
  4. 8月12日(明日)美国 7 月 CPI,以及联储口径冲突的解决: 预期同比 **+3.4%(6 月 3.5%)、环比 +0.1%;核心同比 +2.5%(6 月 2.6%)、环比 +0.2%。** ⊘ 当前两个口径并列:TE 称 9 月加息概率约 **46%(一周前 64%),FedWatch 口径称按兵不动 60%(加息约 40%)。** CPI 是唯一能解决该冲突的输入;关注公布后美元指数(现 99.753)与伦铝的同步反应。
  5. 伦铝能否收复 MA60 3,349.41 美元 ≈ 核心区间上沿 3,350 美元: 8月10日现货 3,327.50、三个月 3,320.50,距 MA60 仅 21.91 / 28.91 美元,已连续六个交易日上涨。 同时关注现货升水 7.00 美元能否维持或扩大——升水扩大是即期紧张的确认,收窄回 contango 则说明本轮上行以远期定价为主。
  6. LME 注销仓单结构能否刷新(自 8月6日起已停更): 总库存 254,900 吨(连续 30 日下降),但注销 13,250 吨 / 可用 244,650 吨的结构已四个交易日未更新** ⊘。** 昨日提出的“去库前瞻燃料收缩”问题本期无法证伪;关注结构数据恢复更新后注销仓单是回升还是继续下降。
  7. 氧化铝:AO2610 接棒后能否重新走强,以及现货能否跟随: AO2610 持仓 **222,765 手已超过 AO2609 的 151,189 手,主力正在换月;现货六地全线持平,SMM 指数 2,696.18(−1.34),澳洲 FOB 346 美元持平。** 关注现货是否开始跟随期货——若现货持续持平而期货震荡,则“成本地板抬升”应维持在“企稳”而非“上行”;同时关注美铝 20–30 万吨减量是否开始反映在报价中。
  8. 霍尔木兹:六点最后通牒被拒之后的三个可证伪节点: (1)8月16日前后免费通行窗口是否延期或到期失效;(2)双方是否有任何一方撤回新增条件(伊朗的六点、特朗普的赔偿反要求);(3)Kpler 通行量能否自 8月5日的 8 艘/日回升(冲突前每日 100 艘以上)。 同时关注 Brent 能否延续四连涨并站稳 88 美元。

1 · Market Performance

The central fact: the core-range top broke, and it broke on the first attempt rather than the second

  • AL2609 (August 10, from SHFE’s own daily file, on the LAST-TRADE caliber this brief corrected to yesterday): open 24,005, high 24,165, low 23,920, **close 24,165; settlement 24,035.**
  • Change: **+185 (+0.77%) against the previous settlement of 23,980; +125 (+0.52%) against the corrected previous close of 24,040.**
  • Position: **65 ABOVE the 24,100 core-range top; 35 ABOVE the August 3–7 weekly high of 24,130.**
  • Volume 132,277 lots (151,302 on August 7 — **lower); open interest 240,859, DOWN 684.**

The rest of the curve: every contract closes above 24,000

  • AL2608: open 23,980, high 24,115, low 23,890, **close 24,110, +150; settlement 24,005; volume 8,755, open interest 22,080 (−3,415).**
  • AL2610: open 24,010, high 24,185, low 23,925, **close 24,180, +200; settlement 24,050; volume 70,882, open interest 194,303 (+11,432) — a second consecutive large build.**
  • AL2611 close 24,165 (+195), open interest 55,638 (+1,063); AL2612 close 24,140 (+190); AL2701 close 24,125 (+195).
  • Whole product: open interest **610,071 (+9,059) on volume of 239,579.**
  • All twelve listed contracts from AL2608 to AL2707 closed **above 24,000 yuan.**

The night session: the mirror image of Friday’s (opened 21:00 August 10, belongs to today’s trading day)

  • AL2609: open **24,180, high 24,195, low 24,095; volume 43,805, open interest 241,808 (+949).**
  • AL2610: open **24,200, high 24,220, low 24,115; volume 24,245, open interest 198,225 (+3,922).**
  • AL2608: open 24,100, high 24,135, low 24,075; volume 1,125, open interest 21,745 (−335).
  • AL2611 open 24,200; AL2612 open 24,220. Whole-product night open interest **614,705 (+4,634) on 75,372 lots.**
  • Against their own **day-session closes: AL2609 +15, AL2610 +20, AL2608 −10.** Against **settlements: +145 / +150 / +95.**
  • This is the **mirror image of Friday night, when all three opened below their closes at −35 / −30 / −20.**
  • A pre-open SMM quote for the main continuous carried **24,190, +155 (+0.64%).**

Confirmed: LME, two calibers recorded side by side

  • Official/Westmetall caliber (August 10): **CASH settlement $3,327.50, +$48.00; three-month $3,320.50, +$40.50.**
  • Structure flip: **cash over three-month by $7.00 — a BACKWARDATION, against a $0.50 contango on August 7.**
  • TradingEconomics caliber: **$3,336.25, +$59.75 (+1.82%), previous close $3,276.50; month +5.72%, year +29.09%; Q3 forecast $3,309.69, 12-month $3,507.82.**
  • SMM’s own reporting: a **sixth consecutive higher session and a seven-week high, attributed to continued inventory declines.**
  • SMM technical caliber (carried, stale): MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, **MA60 $3,349.41; core range $3,200–3,350.** Cash at $3,327.50 remains **$21.91 BELOW MA60; three-month $28.91 below.**
  • The **$3,100–3,250 SMM forward band singled out in this brief yesterday was breached upward on the first session.**

Interpretation

  • Yesterday’s single falsifiable question was whether the second test would take 24,100. The answer is that **the first attempt took it, on a closing basis, and cleared the weekly high in the same move.**
  • But the **quality of the breakout must be stated separately from the fact of it: volume fell from 151,302 to 132,277 lots and front-month open interest fell 684.** A range-top breakout on falling participation is most commonly **short-covering, not new long positioning (interpretation).**
  • The entire net build sits in **AL2610 (+11,432 day, +3,922 night) while AL2608 shed 3,415 — roll activity explains a substantial part of it.**
  • Moving averages are four sessions stale and are shown for reference only: the close sits +425 over MA5, +623 over MA10, +974 over MA30 and **+424 (+1.79%) over MA60.** The technical position is the **absolute high of the rebound, and there is no reference level above it in the observed data (the highest print is AL2610’s night high of 24,220).**
  • For LME the level that matters is **MA60 $3,349.41 ≈ the $3,350 core-range top — the two coincide, and cash sits $21.91 beneath them.**

The period’s most important counter-evidence: spot barely moved

  • SMM regional table (August 10):
  • Shanghai A00 **23,990 yuan/mt (range 23,980–24,000), +10.**
  • Central China **23,890, +20; Foshan 24,150, +60; Wuxi 23,960 (+10); Tianjin 23,990 (+60); Linyi 23,990 (+10).**
  • Hangzhou 24,020, Chongqing 23,950, Shenyang 23,890 — **three regions unchanged day-on-day.**
  • Changjiang caliber: 23,960–24,000, average **23,980, +10.**
  • Basis against AL2608’s close of 24,110: **East China −120, Central China −220, Foshan +40.**
  • For comparison: the August 7 basis was about **−30 (quoted discount 35); Foshan’s quoted premium on August 6 was +80.**
  • ⊘ SMM’s own quoted premium/discount figure for August 10 was not retrieved; the basis figures above are computed from closes.

Alumina: futures slightly lower, spot flat in every region

  • AO2609 (August 10): open 2,697, high 2,712, low 2,684, **close 2,696, −2 (−0.07%); settlement 2,699; volume 151,478, open interest 151,189 (−11,253).**
  • AO2610: **close 2,694, −5; volume 111,624, open interest 222,765 (+16,136).** Note: **AO2610’s open interest now exceeds AO2609’s — the alumina main contract is rolling to October.**
  • Night: AO2609 open 2,692, high 2,696, low 2,675 (below the day close), open interest +1,248; AO2610 open 2,690, open interest 236,188 (+13,423).
  • Spot (August 10, **flat across the board): SMM alumina index 2,696.18, −1.34; Shandong 2,710, Henan 2,740, Shanxi 2,730, Guangxi 2,625, Guizhou 2,765, Lianyungang 2,865 — all six regions unchanged.**
  • Australian alumina FOB **$346/mt, unchanged (against Platts $347 on August 6).**
  • Industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt.

Alloy and others

  • AD2610 (August 10): **close 23,560, +80; settlement 23,495; volume 6,284, open interest 18,957 (+468).** AD2609 close 23,485, +95; night AD2610 open 23,560, high 23,590, open interest +230.
  • SMM describes the alloy session as **+0.43% with spot trading light and wait-and-see.**
  • ADC12 **24,200 yuan/mt (August 6 caliber, carried); import loss about 800–827 yuan/mt, import window closed; secondary operating rate 49.4%.**
  • Crude: Brent **$87.95 (August 11 caliber), +0.27%, a FOURTH consecutive higher session; month +5.59%, year +33.02%.** August 7 was $83.55.
  • Dollar index **99.753, −0.0628 (−0.06%); it edged up to about 99.7 on Monday after a 0.4% weekly decline to a two-month low; month −1.46%, year +1.69%.**

Interpretation: a breakout the physical market did not pay for

  • The core of this section is not any single price but the **asymmetry of magnitude: futures +125 to +185 yuan, spot +10 to +60 yuan.**
  • The direct consequence is that **the basis widened on the breakout day: East China from about −30 to −120.** That is the **opposite of what a genuine range breakout should produce in the physical market.**
  • Foshan deserves particular attention: **its absolute price rose 240 yuan (23,910 → 24,150) while its premium compressed from 80 to about 40.** This brief has repeatedly cited the Foshan premium as the clearest visible evidence of structural tightness; **that evidence weakened this period rather than strengthening.**
  • Cost: yesterday this brief upgraded the cost column to bullish on alumina futures’ +78 weekly move. Spot’s answer this period is **flat, not higher — the cost floor is stable at a level above the 2,621 carried into last week, but it is not currently rising.** The item should be revised from “rising” to “stabilised at a higher level.”
  • With the alumina main contract rolling (AO2610 open interest 222,765 > AO2609’s 151,189), **AO2610 becomes the tracking caliber from here.**

3 · Inventory

The period’s single most important data point: the weekly destocking magnitude did not narrow — it nearly doubled

  • China aluminum ingot social inventory (August 10, Monday caliber): **917,000 mt.**
  • −16,000 mt against **Thursday August 6’s 933,000; −41,000 mt against Monday August 3’s 958,000.**
  • Monday series: **979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3, −21,000) → 917,000 (Aug 10, −41,000).**
  • Thursday series: 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6).
  • ⚑ Yesterday this brief quoted SMM’s description of the pace as “narrowing further” and downgraded the inventory column on it. This period’s data **refutes that description: the magnitude went from −21,000/−25,000 to −41,000, the steepest single week in the series this brief carries.**

LME

  • Stocks **254,900 mt (August 10), −1,500 d/d, a thirtieth consecutive session of draw; reporting describes the level as the lowest this century.**
  • ⊘ The cancelled/live warrant split **has not refreshed since the August 6 caliber (cancelled 13,250 mt, live 244,650 mt) and is carried stale — yesterday’s “shrinking forward fuel” question cannot be falsified this period.**
  • ⊘ SHFE aluminum warrants for August 10 were not retrievable at the time of writing. Last confirmed: **307,008 mt (August 7), −1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w (−4.13%), −87,020 m/m (−22.08%).**

Billet and outbound flows: adverse in direction, and calibers conflict

  • Aluminium billet social inventory: **122,000 mt (Aug 3) → 123,500 (Aug 6) → 132,500 (Aug 10), a build of 10,500 mt on the Monday caliber and 9,000 against Thursday.**
  • ⊘ Caliber conflict: a separate SMM morning-meeting caliber describes the billet build as “about 4,000 mt week-on-week.” The two are recorded side by side and not reconciled.
  • Outbound (August 3–9): **ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w; billet outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 w/w.**
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory **24,000 mt, a tenth consecutive weekly draw of only 200 mt.**
  • National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w); port bauxite 940,000 mt.

Interpretation

  • This is the strongest bullish column of the period, and its strength is **upgraded from last period’s “bullish in direction but weakening at the margin.”**
  • But a **structural qualification must accompany it: ingot destocking accelerated while billet accumulation accelerated.** Billet outbound −6,000 mt and billet inventory +10,500 mt point the same way and corroborate each other.
  • The correct statement is: **metal is leaving ingot warehouses faster and billet warehouses slower.** Net metal is still falling, but **the downstream quality of the draw is deteriorating (interpretation).**
  • Ingot outbound +7,700 mt week-on-week is the **best demand read in this brief in a fortnight, it points the same way as the accelerated draw, and it should not be discounted.**
  • On the LME side: the total keeps falling to 254,900 mt and **cash flipped to a $7.00 premium over three-month — a backwardation is the price of immediacy, and it is the one LME datum this period that positioning cannot explain.**

4 · Macro Factors

Hormuz: material escalation on August 10

  • Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr issued a **six-point ultimatum, stating the strait stays closed until the United States “corrects its behaviour”:**
  • (1) end the naval blockade of Iranian ports; (2) lift sanctions; (3) release frozen Iranian assets; (4) withdraw US forces from around Iran; (5) compensate Tehran for war damage; (6) end hostilities and threats against Iran and its regional allies.
  • President Trump **rejected it on Monday and counter-demanded that Iran compensate the victims of attacks he attributes to Tehran, adding a new condition.**
  • Reporting describes the talks as **stalled and hopes for a quick agreement as fading; Iran is separately reported to have reshuffled its military leadership.**
  • The fee-free transit window still expires **around August 16 (60-day term of the June 17 memorandum).** The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is reported at its **lowest since 1983.**

United States: CPI is tomorrow

  • July CPI lands **Wednesday, August 12.** Consensus: **+3.4% y/y (June +3.5%), +0.1% m/m; core +2.5% y/y (June +2.6%), +0.2% m/m; prediction markets are described as leaning to a tamer print.**
  • ⊘ Fed pricing calibers conflict and are recorded side by side without reconciliation: **a TradingEconomics caliber dated August 11 puts September hike odds near 46%, against 64% a week earlier; the FedWatch caliber carried yesterday puts a hold at 60% (hike near 40%).**
  • Next FOMC: **September 16.**
  • Carried: July payrolls −23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y.
  • Dollar index **99.753 (−0.06%), a small give-back up from Monday’s two-month low.**

China and energy (carried)

  • China July **CPI +0.5% (vs +0.8% expected) and PPI +3.5% (vs +3.8% expected), both misses.**
  • July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2.
  • Brent **$87.95, a fourth consecutive higher session; OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September.**

Interpretation

  • The Hormuz column escalated this period from “the asking price went up” to **stalled talks plus new conditions from both sides.** The implication is that **the probability of an agreement by the August 16 window expiry is materially lower than a week ago (interpretation).**
  • The transmission to aluminum is **indirect but real: energy cost (Brent up four straight), Middle Eastern smelter operating rates (one of the stated attributions for the −6.7% y/y ex-China July output), and freight and premium structure.**
  • The macro column’s overall standing is **upgraded half a notch from “background variable” to “secondary driver” this period, on the grounds that the geopolitical item produced a quantifiable directional change rather than merely approaching a date.**
  • But the dollar and Fed pricing remain **neutral: the dollar barely moved, the two Fed calibers contradict each other, and tomorrow’s CPI is the only input capable of resolving that contradiction.**
  • The two-sided reading of China’s price data is unchanged from last period: **a PPI deceleration is the most direct available confirmation of the demand-side bear case (bearish), and a higher probability of policy response is a second-order variable (lower weight).**

5 · Fundamentals

Supply

  • Domestic: weekly electrolytic aluminium output described as **basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion still rising; July total output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July, 78.5% forecast for August.**
  • Built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt, operating capacity 45.31 Mt; **reporting describes China’s 45 Mt capacity cap as increasingly binding.**
  • Ex-China: July output **−6.7% y/y, attributed in reporting to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026.**
  • Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end, EGA Al Taweelah ongoing (89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2).
  • Cost and margin (August 4 caliber, carried): average full cost **16,252 yuan/mt, average profit 6,719 yuan/mt, with the whole domestic industry described as profitable.**

Alumina supply: one item new to this brief

  • ⚑ NEW (news dated July 16, first recorded here): **Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt, a reduction of 200,000–300,000 mt.**
  • Cause: **instability at the Pinjarra refinery from late March, compounded by gas-supply disruption from Cyclone Narelle; the plant has since stabilised but the shortfall cannot be fully recovered.** Aluminium production and shipment guidance was **left unchanged.**
  • Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026 (+15% y/y) while tightening exports from June; port bauxite 940,000 mt; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w).

Demand

  • Processing operating rate **60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; secondary operating rate 49.4%.**
  • Billet processing fees have pulled back and replacement demand has weakened; the market is in the **traditional off-season.**
  • PV: module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August.
  • Two new flow reads: **ingot outbound 124,200 mt (+7,700 w/w) against billet outbound 27,500 mt (−6,000 w/w).**
  • Spot sentiment: SMM describes alloy spot trading as **light and wait-and-see.**

Interpretation

  • Alcoa’s 200,000–300,000 mt guidance cut is the period’s only piece of evidence for a **reduction in the global alumina balance; it belongs in the cost-floor column even though the spot price has not yet responded to it.**
  • The “China is making more aluminium and fewer ingots” mechanism is not overturned this period, but the data sharpens its **downstream absorption side: the ingot end is clearing faster while the billet end is accumulating faster.**
  • The divergence in the two flow series (ingot outbound +7,700 mt, billet outbound −6,000 mt) is the most informative fundamentals datum this period, and it **simultaneously supports the bulls’ inventory case and the bears’ processing-demand case — one should not be taken without the other.**
  • The overseas supply reduction (−6.7% y/y in July, an estimated −980,000 mt for 2026) and the restart pipeline (Slovalco, Missouri, EGA) point in **opposite directions and are offset in time: the reduction is current, the restarts are Q4 and beyond.**

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

By region (August 10)

  • Shanghai **23,990, +10 (range 23,980–24,000); Wuxi 23,960 (+10); Hangzhou 24,020, unchanged; Linyi 23,990 (+10); Tianjin 23,990 (+60).**
  • Central China **23,890, +20; Chongqing 23,950, unchanged; Shenyang 23,890, unchanged.**
  • Foshan **24,150, +60.**
  • Computed basis against AL2608’s close of 24,110: **East China −120, Central China −220, Foshan +40.**
  • Carried caliber (SMM morning meeting): Central China at a discount of 120–160 to the 2608 contract; South China at a premium of 0–10, with transactions 65–105 over 2608.
  • ⊘ SMM’s official August 10 premium/discount figure was not retrieved; ⊘ the East China shipment/purchasing sentiment prints for August 10 were not retrieved (last: August 6, shipment 3.10, purchasing 2.86).

Interpretation

  • This section reduces to one sentence: **on the day futures closed above the core-range top, the basis widened in all three regions.**
  • Hangzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang were **unchanged outright, which is a stronger signal than “rose less” — several regions did not follow the quote at all.**
  • Foshan’s premium compressing from 80 to about 40 weakens the South China structural-tightness argument this brief has leaned on for several periods. To be precise: **Foshan’s absolute price rose 240 yuan while its premium compressed — both are true and not contradictory, but the premium is the structural indicator.**
  • This brief’s standing methodological claim is **challenged for the first time this period.** It has been recorded as “the mechanism supports the basis and regional spreads more than it supports the absolute price.” This period delivered **a rising absolute price with a weakening basis — precisely the reverse.** If that state persists for more than two sessions, the claim should be revised.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (14)

  • SHFE AL2609 closed August 10 at **24,165, +185 (+0.77%), taking the 24,100 core-range top on a closing basis (65 above) and clearing the weekly high of 24,130 (35 above).**
  • All twelve contracts from AL2608 to AL2707 **closed above 24,000; AL2610 closed 24,180 (+200).**
  • The night session **opened ABOVE the day-session closes: AL2609 24,180 (+15), AL2610 24,200 (+20), night highs 24,195 / 24,220, open interest +949 / +3,922.**
  • China ingot social inventory **917,000 mt, −41,000 w/w on the Monday caliber — the magnitude nearly doubled from the prior week’s −21,000, the steepest week in the series.**
  • LME stocks **254,900 mt, a 30th consecutive session of draw, described in reporting as the lowest this century.**
  • LME **cash settlement $3,327.50 (+$48.00), three-month $3,320.50 (+$40.50), a sixth consecutive higher session and a seven-week high.**
  • LME structure flip: **cash over three-month by $7.00 (backwardation), against a $0.50 contango on August 7.**
  • SMM’s own $3,100–3,250 forward band for LME **breached upward on the first session.**
  • Ingot outbound (August 3–9) **124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w.**
  • Hormuz **materially escalated: Iran’s six-point ultimatum, Trump’s rejection and counter-demand for compensation, talks stalled; fee-free window expires around August 16; Iranian military leadership reshuffle.**
  • Brent **$87.95, a fourth consecutive higher session (from $83.55 on August 7); US SPR at its lowest since 1983.**
  • NEW: **Alcoa cut 2026 alumina guidance by 200,000–300,000 mt to 9.5–9.6 Mt (Pinjarra plus Cyclone Narelle).**
  • Overseas supply: ex-China July output −6.7% y/y (attributed to Middle Eastern smelter operating rates); an estimated −980,000 mt for 2026; the 45 Mt capacity cap described as increasingly binding.
  • July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y with the liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% going to a forecast 78.5%, so deliverable-form metal keeps shrinking; AD2610 closed 23,560 (+80).

Bearish factors (10)

  • ⚑ The period’s most important item: **spot barely followed — A00 Shanghai rose only 10 yuan to 23,990, Central China +20, Foshan +60, while Hangzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang were unchanged.**
  • The basis **widened on the breakout day: East China from about −30 to −120, Central China −220; Foshan’s premium compressed from 80 to about 40.**
  • AL2609’s open interest **fell 684 on the breakout day and volume fell from 151,302 to 132,277 lots — a breakout on falling participation fits short-covering better than new long positioning.**
  • The build is concentrated in AL2610 (+11,432) while AL2608 shed 3,415 — **roll activity explains a substantial part of it.**
  • Alumina spot **flat across the board (SMM index 2,696.18, −1.34; all six regions unchanged; Australian FOB $346 unchanged) — the cost floor stabilised rather than rose, and yesterday’s “cost rising” upgrade should be revised down half a notch.**
  • Billet inventory **132,500 mt, +10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber; billet outbound −6,000 w/w; ⊘ a second caliber gives the build as about 4,000 mt — unreconciled.**
  • LME remains **$21.91 BELOW MA60 ($3,349.41) — the seven-week high has still not recovered the medium-term average, and the $3,350 core-range top coincides with it.**
  • Demand reads unchanged and still weak: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling, processing PMI 42.2 (all seven sub-sectors contracting), secondary 49.4%, billet processing fees pulled back, traditional off-season; alloy spot trading light and wait-and-see.
  • China July CPI +0.5% and PPI +3.5%, both misses; ⊘ the LME cancelled-warrant split has not refreshed since August 6, so yesterday’s “shrinking forward fuel” concern **cannot be falsified this period.**
  • Restarts and additions: Slovalco Q4, Missouri year-end, EGA ongoing; Guinea’s record 114.8 Mt H1 bauxite exports; OPEC+ adding 188,000 bpd from September.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Yesterday’s single falsifiable question was answered within one session and answered in the cleanest possible way: **AL2609 closed August 10 at 24,165, +185 (+0.77%), taking the 24,100 core-range top on a closing basis on the FIRST attempt rather than the second — 65 above the range top, 35 above the August 3–7 weekly high of 24,130, with all twelve contracts from AL2608 to AL2707 closing above 24,000; at the same time, four of the five bearish items this brief recorded yesterday were reversed by that same session, and each has to be conceded directly — first, the night session delivered the mirror image of Friday’s: AL2609 opened 24,180 and AL2610 opened 24,200, respectively 15 and 20 ABOVE their own day-session closes, with night highs of 24,195 and 24,220 and open interest up 949 and 3,922, so the “no gap, therefore non-macro” classification, having returned opposite answers on consecutive nights, must be judged over-weighted; second, the destocking magnitude did not narrow — it nearly doubled: social inventory 917,000 mt, −41,000 mt on the Monday caliber against −21,000 the prior week, a series now reading 979,000 → 958,000 → 917,000, the steepest single week this brief has carried, which refutes both SMM’s “narrowing further” language and the inventory-column downgrade this brief built on it; third, SMM’s own $3,100–3,250 forward band for LME was breached upward on day one — cash settled $3,327.50 (+$48.00), three-month $3,320.50, a sixth consecutive higher session and a seven-week high, on stocks of 254,900 mt and a thirtieth consecutive daily draw; fourth, and structurally the most notable, the LME cash-to-three-month spread flipped from a $0.50 contango to a $7.00 BACKWARDATION, and a backwardation is the price of immediacy — the one LME datum this period that positioning cannot explain; yet the item that did NOT reverse is precisely the test this brief has argued for two weeks is the real one — the physical market did not follow: A00 Shanghai rose just 10 yuan to 23,990, Central China +20 to 23,890, Foshan +60 to 24,150, while Hangzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang were unchanged outright, and measured against AL2608’s close of 24,110 the East China basis widened from about −30 to −120 in a single session, Central China to −220, and Foshan’s premium compressed from 80 to about 40 — futures added 125–185 yuan, spot added 10–60, which is the definition of a breakout the physical market is not paying for; two mechanical details reinforce rather than soften that reading: AL2609’s open interest FELL 684 on the breakout day and its volume fell from 151,302 to 132,277 lots, while the entire net build sat in AL2610 (+11,432 day, +3,922 night) as AL2608 shed 3,415, so roll activity explains a substantial part of it; the cost side withheld confirmation as well — alumina spot was unchanged in all six regions (SMM index 2,696.18, −1.34; Australian FOB $346 flat), so yesterday’s “cost rising” upgrade is revised to stabilised at a higher level, with the only new reduction evidence being Alcoa’s cut of 200,000–300,000 mt to 9.5–9.6 Mt of 2026 alumina (Pinjarra instability compounded by Cyclone Narelle gas disruption), which the spot price has not yet reflected; the flow data produced the period’s most informative divergence — ingot outbound 124,200 mt (+7,700 w/w) against billet outbound 27,500 mt (−6,000 w/w), with billet inventory building to 132,500 mt (+10,500 on the Monday caliber, or about 4,000 on a second caliber, unreconciled) — meaning metal is leaving ingot warehouses faster and billet warehouses slower; on the macro side the geopolitical column produced a quantifiable directional change — Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a six-point ultimatum (end the blockade, lift sanctions, release assets, withdraw forces, pay compensation, end hostilities), Trump rejected it on Monday and counter-demanded compensation from Iran, the talks are described as stalled, and Brent rose for a fourth consecutive session to $87.95 — while the dollar sat still at 99.753 and the two Fed calibers (46% versus 40%) contradict each other, with tomorrow’s US July CPI (consensus +3.4% headline, +2.5% core) the only input capable of resolving them; the net judgement turns back to bullish from last period’s bearish tilt, 14 factors to 10 — but the composition of the bull column has changed in a way that matters more than the count: it is now carried almost entirely by inventory, LME structure and geopolitics, and almost not at all by the Chinese physical market, which widened its discount on the very day futures cleared their range; today therefore poses a sharper question than yesterday’s, and it is a question about confirmation rather than direction: with 24,100 now beneath the price rather than above it, does the basis begin to close — East China from −120, Central China from −220, Foshan’s premium back toward 80 — or does spot keep refusing to follow, in which case a breakout carried by falling front-month open interest and a widening discount has a specific and identifiable way to fail.**

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  1. Whether the basis begins to close — the period’s single core confirmation item: On August 10 the East China basis widened from about −30 to **−120, Central China to −220, and Foshan’s premium compressed from 80 to about 40, while Hangzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang were unchanged.** Watch three mutually exclusive outcomes: the basis narrows (the breakout gets physical confirmation), holds beyond −100 (a high-level divergence persists), or widens further (the breakout should then be explicitly labelled physically unconfirmed). Prioritise **whether Foshan’s premium can return above 80 — it carries more information than the national average.**
  2. The first test of 24,100 as support rather than resistance: The August 10 close was 24,165, 65 above the top, and **the night session low of 24,095 already dipped briefly below it.** Watch whether the day session holds 24,100 on a **closing basis: if it does, the range top completes its role reversal, with 24,195 (night high), 24,200 (top of SMM’s forward band) and 24,220 (AL2610 night high) above; if it fails, the breakout reverts to a false one, with 24,035 (settlement), 23,980 and 23,920 (August 10 low) beneath.**
  3. Whether AL2609’s open interest resumes growing — the only direct read on short-covering versus new longs: On the breakout day AL2609 **shed 684 lots on falling volume; the night session turned it to +949.** Watch the day-session direction: sustained growth with volume back above 150,000 lots would argue for upgrading the move’s durability; another decline confirms that **the rally is running on shrinking front-month participation and the breakout’s strength should be discounted.**
  4. Tomorrow’s US July CPI (August 12) and the resolution of the Fed caliber conflict: Consensus **+3.4% y/y (June 3.5%) and +0.1% m/m; core +2.5% y/y (June 2.6%) and +0.2% m/m.** ⊘ Two calibers stand side by side: TradingEconomics puts September hike odds near **46% (64% a week earlier); the FedWatch caliber puts a hold at 60% (hike near 40%).** CPI is the only input that can resolve this; watch the dollar (currently 99.753) and LME react together on release.
  5. Whether LME can recover MA60 at $3,349.41 ≈ the $3,350 core-range top: August 10 cash $3,327.50 and three-month $3,320.50 sit **$21.91 and $28.91 below MA60 after six consecutive higher sessions.** Watch alongside it **whether the $7.00 cash backwardation holds or widens — a widening backwardation confirms immediate tightness; a slide back into contango would say the move is being priced in the forward curve rather than the spot market.**
  6. Whether the LME cancelled-warrant split refreshes (stalled since August 6): Total stocks are 254,900 mt on a 30-session draw, but **the 13,250 cancelled / 244,650 live split has not updated in four sessions ⊘.** Yesterday’s “shrinking forward fuel for the draw” concern **cannot be falsified this period; watch whether cancelled warrants recover or keep falling once the series resumes.**
  7. Alumina: whether AO2610 strengthens after taking over, and whether spot follows: AO2610’s open interest at **222,765 lots now exceeds AO2609’s 151,189, so the main contract is rolling; spot was flat in all six regions with the SMM index at 2,696.18 (−1.34) and Australian FOB unchanged at $346.** Watch **whether spot begins to follow futures — if spot stays flat while futures chop, the cost-floor item should remain at “stabilised” rather than “rising”; watch also whether Alcoa’s 200,000–300,000 mt cut starts to appear in quotes.**
  8. Hormuz: three falsifiable nodes after the six-point ultimatum was rejected: (1) whether the **fee-free transit window is extended or lapses around August 16; (2) whether either side withdraws a newly added condition (Iran’s six points, Trump’s counter-demand for compensation); (3) whether Kpler transit counts recover from the 8 vessels/day recorded on August 5 (against 100+/day pre-conflict).** Watch alongside whether Brent extends its four-session run and holds $88.

Sources: Shanghai Futures Exchange official daily data file for August 10, 2026, kx20260810.dat (AL2608 open 23,980, high 24,115, low 23,890, close 24,110, settlement 24,005, change +150, volume 8,755 lots, open interest 22,080, −3,415; AL2609 open 24,005, high 24,165, low 23,920, close 24,165, settlement 24,035, change +185, volume 132,277 lots, open interest 240,859, −684; AL2610 open 24,010, high 24,185, low 23,925, close 24,180, settlement 24,050, change +200, volume 70,882 lots, open interest 194,303, +11,432; AL2611 close 24,165, +195, open interest 55,638, +1,063; AL2612 close 24,140, +190; AL2701 close 24,125, +195; product totals volume 239,579, open interest 610,071, +9,059; AO2608 close 2,660, −21; AO2609 open 2,697, high 2,712, low 2,684, close 2,696, settlement 2,699, change −2, volume 151,478, open interest 151,189, −11,253; AO2610 close 2,694, −5, volume 111,624, open interest 222,765, +16,136; AO2611 close 2,711, −9; AO2612 close 2,727, −6; AO2701 close 2,746, −5; alumina product totals volume 294,594, open interest 521,307; AD2609 close 23,485, +95, open interest 6,053, −80; AD2610 open 23,510, high 23,595, low 23,430, close 23,560, settlement 23,495, change +80, volume 6,284, open interest 18,957, +468); Shanghai Futures Exchange official data file for the August 11, 2026 trading day, kx20260811.dat, capturing the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 10 (AL2608 open 24,100, high 24,135, low 24,075, volume 1,125, open interest 21,745, −335; AL2609 open 24,180, high 24,195, low 24,095, volume 43,805, open interest 241,808, +949; AL2610 open 24,200, high 24,220, low 24,115, volume 24,245, open interest 198,225, +3,922; AL2611 open 24,200; AL2612 open 24,220; AL2701 open 24,150; aluminium product totals volume 75,372, open interest 614,705, +4,634; AO2609 open 2,692, high 2,696, low 2,675, volume 52,178, open interest 152,437, +1,248; AO2610 open 2,690, high 2,692, low 2,668, volume 43,431, open interest 236,188, +13,423; AD2610 open 23,560, high 23,590, low 23,495, open interest 19,187, +230; the file carries no close, settlement or change fields because the August 11 trading day has not completed); SMM spot price table via hq.smm.cn (August 10 A00: Shanghai 23,980–24,000, average 23,990, +10; Central China 23,870–23,910, average 23,890, +20; Foshan 24,130–24,170, average 24,150, +60; Wuxi 23,950–23,970, average 23,960, +10; Hangzhou 24,010–24,030, average 24,020, unchanged; Chongqing 23,930–23,970, average 23,950, unchanged; Shenyang 23,880–23,900, average 23,890, unchanged; Tianjin 23,980–24,000, average 23,990, +60; Linyi 23,980–24,000, average 23,990, +10; pre-open main-continuous quote 24,190, +155, +0.6449%); cnal.com / 世铝网 market page (August 10 Changjiang A00 23,960–24,000, average 23,980, +10; LME closing 3,335, +65); SMM alumina price page via hq.smm.cn (August 10 SMM alumina index 2,696.18, −1.34; Shandong 2,680–2,740, average 2,710, flat; Henan 2,700–2,780, average 2,740, flat; Shanxi 2,700–2,760, average 2,730, flat; Guangxi 2,600–2,650, average 2,625, flat; Guizhou 2,730–2,800, average 2,765, flat; Lianyungang 2,770–2,960, average 2,865, flat; Australian alumina FOB $346/mt, unchanged); Westmetall LME market data table (August 10 cash settlement $3,327.50 and three-month $3,320.50 on stocks of 254,900 mt; August 7 cash $3,279.50, three-month $3,280.00, stocks 256,400 mt; August 6 cash $3,261.00, three-month $3,260.00, stocks 257,900 mt; August 5 stocks 259,400 mt; August 4 stocks 260,900 mt); TradingEconomics aluminum page ($3,336.25, +$59.75, +1.82%, previous close $3,276.50; month +5.72%, year +29.09%; Q3 forecast $3,309.69, 12-month $3,507.82; commentary on the highest level in seven weeks amid supply constraints, ex-China output −6.7% y/y in July from reduced Middle Eastern smelter operating rates, China’s 45 Mt production cap described as increasingly restrictive, LME inventories at their lowest level this century, Alcoa’s production forecast cut on Australian refinery issues, and pending restarts at Slovalco in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end and EGA Al Taweelah); SMM aluminum inventory series via hq.smm.cn/aluminum (2026年8月10日电解铝锭:周一库存91.7万吨【SMM数据】 — 917,000 mt, −16,000 mt against Thursday August 6’s 933,000 mt and −41,000 mt against Monday August 3’s 958,000 mt; series: July 27 979,000; July 30 953,000; August 3 958,000; August 6 933,000; August 10 917,000); SMM aluminium billet social inventory series via hq.smm.cn/aluminum/list/360 (August 10 132,500 mt; August 6 123,500 mt; August 3 122,000 mt; July 30 119,500 mt; July 27 122,000 mt); SMM weekly outbound data (August 3–9 domestic aluminium ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 mt week-on-week; aluminium bar outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 mt week-on-week); SMM aluminum morning meeting minutes (China’s aluminium social inventory 917,000 mt with destocking of 16,000 mt from Thursday and 41,000 mt against the prior Monday; aluminium billet inventory build of about 4,000 mt week-on-week; Central China at a discount of 120–160 yuan/mt against the SHFE 08 contract; South China at a premium of 0–10 with spot transactions at 65–105 over SHFE 2608; China’s weekly aluminium production stable with increased liquid aluminium; global aluminium ingot destocking described as unchanged in the short term; downstream under traditional off-season pressure; prices “expected to consolidate on a strong note”); SMM aluminum daily items dated August 10 (LME aluminium rising for a sixth consecutive session to a seven-week high on continued inventory declines; aluminium alloy futures closing +0.43% with spot trading light and wait-and-see); TradingEconomics US dollar page (99.753, −0.0628, −0.06%; month −1.46%, year +1.69%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76; commentary that the index “edged up to 99.7 on Monday, following a 0.4% decline last week that pushed the greenback to a two-month low,” with September hike odds near 46% against 64% a week prior); TradingEconomics Brent crude page ($87.95, +$0.23, +0.27%; month +5.59%, year +33.02%; Q3 forecast $85.58; commentary that Brent “held above $87 per barrel on Tuesday after rising for four consecutive sessions, supported by heightened uncertainty over a potential deal,” citing stalled Hormuz reopening discussions, escalating Trump demands on Iranian compensation, Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels at their lowest since 1983); Euronews, CBS News live coverage, CNN live coverage, SCMP and Breitbart reporting dated August 10 (Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr setting six conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — end the naval blockade of Iranian ports, lift sanctions, release frozen Iranian assets, withdraw US forces from around Iran, compensate Tehran for war damage, and end hostilities and threats against Iran and its regional allies — with the strait to remain closed until the United States “corrects its behaviour”; Trump rejecting the ultimatum on Monday and counter-demanding that Iran compensate victims of attacks he attributes to Tehran; talks described as stalled with hopes for a quick agreement fading; Iran reported to have reshuffled its military leadership); Morningstar, CNBC, US News and Polymarket coverage of the July CPI release scheduled for Wednesday August 12 (consensus +0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y headline against June’s 3.5%; core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y against June’s 2.6%; Cleveland Fed core nowcasts clustering 0.09–0.21%; prediction markets leaning to a tamer print); Yahoo Finance, Manufacturing Dive, Seeking Alpha and GuruFocus coverage dated July 16–17 (Alcoa lowering 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt, a reduction of 200,000–300,000 mt, after instability at the Pinjarra refinery from late March was exacerbated by gas supply disruptions from Cyclone Narelle; alumina shipment guidance also lowered; aluminium production and shipment guidance unchanged); SMM institutional commentary carried from an August 4 caliber (domestic electrolytic aluminium average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt and average profit 6,719 yuan/mt with the industry fully profitable; overseas supply expected to decrease by 980,000 mt in 2026; SMM alumina index 2,706.12 on that date); carried unchanged from prior briefs: SHFE MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741 and MACD DIF 93.4473 / DEA −3.5285, core range 23,500–24,100; SMM’s LME technical caliber MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41 with core range $3,200–3,350; SMM forward ranges of 23,200–24,200 yuan and $3,100–3,250 for the week; LME cancelled warrants 13,250 mt and live warrants 244,650 mt on the August 6 caliber; SHFE aluminium warrants 307,008 mt on August 7, −1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m; industry average alumina full cost near 2,530 with SMM’s expected band 2,600–2,650; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w; port bauxite 940,000 mt; cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt weekly draw; ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt with the import window closed at a loss of 800–827 yuan/mt and a secondary operating rate of 49.4%; China’s July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt and operating capacity 45.31 Mt; EGA Al Taweelah 89 of 1,262 pots restarted as of July 2; Guinea’s record 114.8 Mt of H1 2026 bauxite exports, +15% y/y; downstream processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened; China July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected and PPI +3.5% against +3.8% expected; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; US July payrolls −23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000, unemployment 4.1%, average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y; the FedWatch caliber of a 60% September hold; next FOMC September 16; OPEC+ core seven adding 188,000 bpd from September; the Hormuz fee-free window expiring around August 16 under the June 17 memorandum’s 60-day term; Kpler’s count of 8 vessels crossing on August 5 against 100+/day pre-conflict; East China sentiment selling 3.10 and purchasing 2.86 on August 6. Data calibers: all SHFE figures in this brief are taken from the exchange’s own daily files and are on the LAST-TRADE caliber established by yesterday’s correction; settlement prices are stated separately and the two are never netted; percentage changes for the August 10 session are computed as SHFE reports them, against the previous SETTLEMENT (23,980 for AL2609), while the comparison against the previous CLOSE of 24,040 is stated separately as +125; the night session recorded here is complete as to opens, ranges, volumes and open-interest changes but carries NO close or settlement, because the August 11 trading day has not finished; the +15 / +20 / −10 comparisons against day-session closes are arithmetic on confirmed figures, while the inference drawn about aluminum’s reaction function is interpretation; two LME calibers are carried without reconciliation — the official/Westmetall cash $3,327.50 and three-month $3,320.50, and the TradingEconomics $3,336.25; the $7.00 backwardation is computed on the official caliber only; the East China, Central China and Foshan basis figures of −120, −220 and +40 are COMPUTED from SMM regional averages against AL2608’s close of 24,110; SMM’s own quoted premium/discount for August 10 was not retrieved and the computed figures should not be treated as SMM’s published basis; two aluminium billet inventory calibers conflict — the SMM billet social-inventory series implying +10,500 mt week-on-week and the SMM morning-meeting description of “about 4,000 mt” — and both are recorded without reconciliation; the SHFE warrant series, the LME stock series and the SMM social inventory series are three distinct calibers and are never netted or summed; SHFE aluminium warrants for August 10 were NOT retrievable at the time of writing and the August 7 figure is carried as the last confirmed value; the LME cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since the August 6 caliber and is four sessions stale, so yesterday’s “shrinking forward fuel” question cannot be falsified this period; SHFE moving averages, MACD and the core range remain the August 6 caliber and are FOUR sessions stale; the SMM LME technical caliber is likewise stale; both are shown for reference only; two Fed pricing calibers conflict — approximately 46% September hike odds on the TradingEconomics caliber dated August 11 and approximately 40% implied by the 60% hold on the FedWatch caliber carried yesterday — and neither is adopted over the other; the dollar index figure of 99.753 and the Brent figure of $87.95 are live August 11 Asia-session calibers, not completed daily closes; the alumina main contract is rolling from AO2609 to AO2610 on open interest and future briefs should track AO2610; the Alcoa guidance cut is dated July 16 and is new to this brief rather than new to the market; the Hormuz fee-free window’s expiry “around August 16” is derived from the reported June 17 memorandum plus its stated 60-day period; the exact date is not stated in the source and the derivation is labeled as such; as of writing no Hormuz agreement has been signed, no fee mechanism has been announced, and no reopening of the Strait has been reported; this brief writes at 08:54 Beijing on August 11, before the SHFE day session opens, and contains no August 11 day-session price. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout; items marked ⊘ are unretrieved, stale or unreconciled and should be treated as unconfirmed.

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