Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Hydro's 6.3Mt Alunorte refinery cuts to half rate on a gas disruption. SHFE rises to 24,250 and LME clears its 60-day average.海德鲁旗下 630 万吨 Alunorte 氧化铝厂因天然气中断减产至五成;沪铝升至 24,250,LME 上破 60 日均线。

Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Wednesday August 12 (Asia), 08:59 Beijing, before the SHFE day session opens. The August 12 trading day began with the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on Tuesday August 11 and closed 01:00; that session is complete as to opens, ranges, volumes and open-interest changes but carries no close or settlement because the trading day has not finished. SHFE AUGUST 11 DAY SESSION, from the exchange's own daily file on the LAST-TRADE caliber: AL2609 open 24,180, high 24,260, low 24,095, CLOSE 24,250, settlement 24,180, change +215 against the previous settlement of 24,035 (+0.89%) and +85 against the previous close of 24,165 (+0.35%); volume 131,151 lots (down from 132,277 on August 10 and 151,302 on August 7 — a third consecutive decline), open interest 239,444, DOWN 1,415, a second consecutive decline. AL2608: open 24,100, high 24,210, low 24,075, close 24,200, +195, settlement 24,140, volume 7,925, open interest 18,755 (−3,325). AL2610: open 24,200, high 24,275, low 24,115, close 24,260, +210, settlement 24,200, volume 82,060, open interest 203,460 (+9,157) — a third consecutive large build. AL2611 close 24,225, +190, open interest 58,188 (+2,550); AL2612 close 24,200, +185, open interest 51,368 (+992); AL2701 close 24,190, +190, open interest 25,634 (+909); AL2707 close 24,150, +130. Whole-product open interest 619,505, +9,434 on volume of 256,186. Every listed contract closed at or above 24,150. NIGHT SESSION (opened 21:00 August 11, belongs to the August 12 trading day): AL2609 open 24,290, high 24,365, low 24,270, volume 57,363, open interest 242,049 (+2,605); AL2608 open 24,270, high 24,315, low 24,240, volume 670, open interest 18,310 (−445); AL2610 open 24,305, high 24,380, low 24,285, volume 31,381, open interest 208,162 (+4,702); AL2611 open 24,300, open interest 58,910 (+722); AL2612 open 24,255, open interest 51,693 (+325). Whole-product night open interest 629,147, +9,642 on 103,248 lots. Measured against their own day-session CLOSES the three actives opened +40, +45 and +70 — all three ABOVE, against +15 / +20 / −10 the previous night and −35 / −30 / −20 on the Friday night session; measured against settlements, +110, +105 and +130. AL2609's night LOW of 24,270 sits 20 ABOVE its day close, so the night session never traded back below the close. A live pre-open SMM quote for the main continuous carried 24,320, +140 (+0.579%). MOVING AVERAGES remain the August 6 caliber and are now FIVE sessions stale: MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741; on those stale values the August 11 close sits +510 above MA5, +708 above MA10, +1,058.67 above MA30 and +509 (+2.14%) above MA60. MACD August 6 caliber: DIF 93.4473 above DEA −3.5285. The 23,500–24,100 core range is now cleared by 150 on the close. ALUMINA, AUGUST 11: AO2609 open 2,692, high 2,727, low 2,670, close 2,724, settlement 2,693, +25 on settlement and +28 on the close, volume 169,241, open interest 137,795 (−13,394); AO2610 open 2,690, high 2,732, low 2,664, close 2,727, settlement 2,689, +37 on settlement and +33 on the close, volume 149,893, open interest 231,910 (+9,145) — AO2610's close sits 38 ABOVE its own settlement, so the move was concentrated in the closing hour; AO2611 close 2,747, +36, open interest 59,791 (+3,484); AO2612 close 2,760, +33; AO2701 close 2,778, +37, volume 34,508, open interest 69,864 (+5,607); AO2707 close 2,866, +21. Alumina product totals volume 380,921, open interest 527,875 (+6,568). AO2610's open interest of 231,910 now far exceeds AO2609's 137,795 — the roll to October is complete. Night session: AO2609 open 2,724, high 2,736, low 2,712, volume 69,168, open interest 133,921 (−3,874); AO2610 open 2,725, high 2,741, low 2,704, volume 70,351, open interest 239,201 (+7,291); alumina night totals volume 161,827, open interest 532,955 (+5,080). ALUMINA SPOT, AUGUST 11, LOWER ACROSS MOST REGIONS: SMM alumina index 2,692.52, −3.66; Shandong 2,700 (range 2,670–2,730), −10; Henan 2,735, −5; Shanxi 2,725, −5; Guangxi 2,620, −5; Guizhou 2,765, flat; Lianyungang 2,865, flat; Bayuquan 2,865, flat; Australian alumina FOB $347/mt, +$1. Industry average full cost near 2,530. LME, AUGUST 11, official/Westmetall caliber: CASH settlement $3,373.00 (+$45.50 from $3,327.50) and THREE-MONTH $3,374.00 (+$53.50 from $3,320.50), so the cash-to-3M spread flipped from a $7.00 BACKWARDATION on August 10 back to a $1.00 CONTANGO, with three-month rising $8.00 more than cash; stocks 253,400 mt, −1,500, a thirty-first consecutive draw. Seventh consecutive higher session. TradingEconomics caliber: $3,360.55, +$24.30 (+0.73%), previous close $3,336.25, month +6.49%, year +27.86%, Q3 forecast RAISED to $3,400.00 from $3,309.69 and 12-month RAISED to $3,604.43 from $3,507.82. A cnal.com caliber gives LME three-month $3,362.50, +$27.50, and a live SMM quote carried $3,364.50, +$2.00 — three calibers, not reconciled ⊘. On SMM's stale technical caliber (MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41; core range $3,200–3,350), cash at $3,373.00 now sits $23.59 ABOVE MA60 and three-month $24.59 above — both MA60 and the $3,350 range top, flagged yesterday as the single overhead reference, are CLEARED. INVENTORY: LME aluminium stocks 253,400 mt on August 11, −1,500 d/d, a thirty-first consecutive draw; reporting describes LME stocks as the lowest this century. The cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since the August 6 caliber (cancelled 13,250 mt, −10.17%; live 244,650 mt) and is now six sessions stale ⊘. CHINA INGOT SOCIAL INVENTORY: no new print — SMM publishes on Monday and Thursday and August 11 was a Tuesday; the last figure stands at 917,000 mt (August 10, Monday caliber), −16,000 mt against Thursday August 6's 933,000 and −41,000 mt against Monday August 3's 958,000; the Monday series reads 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10) and the next print is Thursday August 13. A separate SMM midday caliber dated August 11 describes aluminium ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas as down 4,500 mt week-on-week with Guangdong and Wuxi destocking; that caliber is not reconciled against the Monday/Thursday series ⊘. ALUMINIUM BILLET: 132,500 mt on August 10, +10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber against a separate SMM morning-meeting description of about 4,000 mt, unreconciled ⊘; next print Thursday August 13. OUTBOUND FLOWS, August 3–9: ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w; billet outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 w/w. Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt weekly draw. SHFE aluminium warrants were not retrievable for August 11 ⊘; last confirmed 307,008 mt on August 7 (−1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m). National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w); port bauxite 940,000 mt. SPOT, AUGUST 11, SMM regional table: Shanghai A00 24,100 (range 24,090–24,110), +110; Central China 23,990 (23,970–24,010), +100; Foshan 24,250 (24,230–24,270), +100; Wuxi 24,080, +120; Hangzhou 24,140, +120; Chongqing 24,060, +110; Shenyang 24,000, +110; Tianjin 24,000, +10; Linyi 24,120, +130. A Changjiang caliber gives 24,100, +120; Nanhai 24,560, +140; Guangdong Nanchu 24,270, +110. Against AL2608's close of 24,200 the implied East China basis is −100 (from −120), Central China −210 (from −220) and Foshan +50 (from +40). SMM's own August 11 midday commentary quotes a spot premium range of 40 yuan/mt against the August contract and 20 against the August–October spread, Central China transactions centred on a discount of 120–140 to the SHFE August contract (from 120–160), East China shipment sentiment 3.16 (+0.01) and purchasing sentiment 3.20 (+0.04) against 3.10 and 2.86 on August 6, and Central China shipment 3.06 (+0.02) and purchasing 2.95 (−0.01), with Central China trading volume low and downstream buying sluggish; it also notes that prices above 24,000 curbed downstream purchases while transactions among traders were relatively active. SECONDARY: AD2610 August 11 open 23,560, high 23,620, low 23,495, close 23,575, settlement 23,555, +80 on settlement and +15 on the close, volume 7,956, open interest 19,531 (+574); AD2609 close 23,485, +60, open interest 5,927 (−126); alloy product totals volume 13,450, open interest 26,840 (+455); night session AD2610 open 23,595, high 23,680, low 23,595, open interest 19,810 (+279). ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt (August 6 caliber, carried ⊘), import window closed at a loss near 800–827 yuan/mt; secondary aluminium operating rate 49.4%. COST AND MARGIN, carried from an August 4 caliber: average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt, average profit 6,719 yuan/mt, industry fully profitable. MACRO: US dollar index 99.828 on the August 12 Asia caliber, +0.0052 (+0.01%); it held near 99.8 on Tuesday after rebounding from a two-month low of 99.5, with reporting citing US Treasury intervention alongside Japan to support the yen; month −1.39%, year +2.03%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76. FED PRICING TURNED HAWKISH, two calibers both recorded and NOT reconciled ⊘: a TradingEconomics caliber dated August 12 puts September hike odds near 51%, against 46% on August 11 and 64% a week earlier; a CME FedWatch caliber puts no change at 45.1%, implying a hike near 55%, against the 60% hold (40% hike) carried two days ago. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said several rate increases may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Next FOMC September 15–16. US JULY CPI IS TONIGHT, Wednesday August 12: two consensus calibers conflict on the monthly figures — one gives headline +0.2% m/m and core +0.1% m/m, the other (carried from yesterday) gives headline +0.1% and core +0.2% ⊘ — while both agree on 3.4% y/y headline against June's 3.5% and 2.5% y/y core against June's 2.6%. US July payrolls fell 23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y. China July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected and PPI +3.5% against +3.8% expected; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2. ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS: Brent $89.556 on the August 12 caliber, +$0.65 (+0.73%), a FIFTH consecutive higher session, month +7.51%, year +36.46%, Q3 forecast RAISED to $89.485 from $85.58. US crude inventories rose 9.1 million barrels, the largest weekly build since February. HORMUZ HEADLINES TURNED CONSTRUCTIVE ON AUGUST 11: Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said the US and Iran are 'close to some sort of arrangement,' adding that signals over the past two to three days show the two sides on the verge of an agreement in one form or another; Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi has described Iran and Oman as 'very close' on a new shipping-route model under which vessels would enter through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters, replacing the 60-year-old practice of free transit, though reopening remains conditioned on US compensation; Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi travelled to Tehran on August 11. Working against that, President Trump hardened his stance by demanding Iran pay reparations for deaths from attacks he attributes to Tehran, countering Iran's own war-compensation demand, and Bloomberg's August 11 framing is that Pakistan says a deal is close even as Iran and the US harden stances. The fee-free transit window under the June 17 memorandum still expires around August 16. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve reported at its lowest since 1983. OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September. SUPPLY, THE CENTRAL NEW ITEM: Norsk Hydro announced on August 11, 2026 that Alunorte in Pará, Brazil has temporarily reduced alumina production to 50% of capacity after its gas supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, communicated disruptions to natural gas availability; Alunorte's capacity is 6.3 Mt/yr and it is described as the largest alumina refinery outside China; contingency measures are the purchase of spot gas volumes and a request for direct access to the Barcarena LNG receiving and regasification terminal; the estimated Q3 2026 impact on the Bauxite & Alumina segment from reduced output and above-contract gas prices is $75–100 million; the company states it will begin ramping to full production 'as soon as gas availability normalizes' and gave no date, while pursuing long-term alternative gas supply and maintaining its contractual rights under the existing Gas Supply Agreement. Also carried: Norsk Hydro's Qatalum in Qatar shut on natural gas shortages following Iranian strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, with the Persian Gulf region — roughly 10% of global production — hampered since the March escalation; Alcoa cut 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt, a reduction of 200,000–300,000 mt, after Pinjarra instability compounded by Cyclone Narelle gas disruption. China's weekly electrolytic aluminium output basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion rising; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July, 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt, operating capacity 45.31 Mt; the 45 Mt cap described as increasingly binding. Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026. Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end, EGA Al Taweelah ongoing (89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2). Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y. DEMAND: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened in the traditional off-season. Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
ALUNORTE CUT TO 50% 6.3 Mt/yr Brazil refinery, largest outside China, on CELBA gas disruption. Q3 hit $75–100m, no restart date
Run-rate arithmetic ≈3.15 Mt/yr removed, ≈8,630 mt/day. The largest single supply item this brief has carried
SHFE AL2609 (Aug 11) Close 24,250, +215 (+0.89%) on settlement, +85 on the close. Second higher close, new rebound high
Whole curve AL2610 24,260 (+210); all 12 listed contracts close at or above 24,150
NIGHT GAPS UP AGAIN Second straight night, and all three actives: +40 / +45 / +70 vs their own closes. High 24,365
Never traded back Night low 24,270 sits 20 ABOVE the day close. AL2609 OI +2,605
SPOT FINALLY FOLLOWS A00 Shanghai 24,100, +110. Eight of nine regions +100 to +130, against +10 to +60 on Monday
Basis narrows East China −120 → −100; Central China −220 → −210; Foshan premium 40 → 50
East China purchasing 3.20, +0.04 d/d and up from 2.86 on Aug 6. Shipment 3.16, +0.01
LME seventh straight day Cash $3,373.00 (+$45.50); 3M $3,374.00 (+$53.50)
CLEARS THE ONE LEVEL MA60 $3,349.41 ≈ $3,350 range top — yesterday's single overhead reference. Cash now $23.59 above
LME stocks 253,400 mt, −1,500, a 31st consecutive draw; described as lowest this century
BUT — backwardation gone $7.00 backwardation → $1.00 CONTANGO in one session. 3M rose $8.00 more than cash
ALUMINA SPOT FELL Index 2,692.52, −3.66. Shandong −10, Henan −5, Shanxi −5, Guangxi −5, on the day futures spiked
The alumina move was late AO2610 closed 2,727 — 38 ABOVE its own settlement of 2,689. A closing-hour repricing
AL2609 open interest −1,415, a second straight decline; volume 131,151, a third straight decline
Where the build went AL2610 again: +9,157 day, +4,702 night. AL2608 shed 3,325
FED TURNS HAWKISH Sept hike ~51% (TE) / ~55% implied (FedWatch hold 45.1%), from 46% / 40%. Hammack: several hikes may be needed
HORMUZ TURNS CONSTRUCTIVE Pakistan's Asif: US and Iran 'close to some sort of arrangement'. Iran–Oman near a new routing model
Brent / US crude stocks $89.556, fifth straight higher session — but US inventories +9.1m bbl, largest build since February
US July CPI TONIGHT. Both calibers agree 3.4% y/y headline and 2.5% core; the m/m consensus conflicts ⊘

一 · 行情表现

核心事实:连续第二个交易日收高,并创本轮反弹新高

  • AL2609(8月11日,上期所口径,最后成交价): 开 24,180,高 24,260,低 24,095,收 24,250;结算 24,180。
  • 涨跌:较前结算价 24,035 涨 215 元(+0.89%);较前收盘价 24,165 涨 85 元(+0.35%)。
  • 成交 **131,151 手(8月10日 132,277 手、8月7日 151,302 手)——连续第三个交易日下降;持仓 239,444 手,减少 1,415 手——连续第二个交易日减少。**
  • 位置:高于核心区间上沿 24,100 达 150 元,已完全脱离 23,500–24,100 区间。

其余合约:全部 12 个合约收于 24,150 及以上

  • AL2608:开 24,100,高 24,210,低 24,075,收 24,200,+195;结算 24,140;成交 7,925 手,持仓 18,755(−3,325)。
  • AL2610:开 24,200,高 24,275,低 24,115,收 24,260,+210;结算 24,200;成交 82,060 手,持仓 **203,460 手(+9,157)——连续第三个交易日大幅增仓。**
  • AL2611 收 24,225(+190),持仓 58,188(+2,550);AL2612 收 24,200(+185),持仓 51,368(+992);AL2701 收 24,190(+190),持仓 25,634(+909);AL2707 收 24,150(+130)。
  • 品种合计:持仓 **619,505 手(+9,434),成交 256,186 手。**

夜盘:连续第二晚高开于收盘价之上,且本次三个主力全部如此

  • AL2609:开 **24,290,高 24,365,低 24,270;成交 57,363 手,持仓 242,049 手(+2,605)。**
  • AL2610:开 **24,305,高 24,380,低 24,285;成交 31,381 手,持仓 208,162 手(+4,702)。**
  • AL2608:开 24,270,高 24,315,低 24,240;成交 670 手,持仓 18,310(−445)。
  • AL2611 开 24,300(持仓 +722);AL2612 开 24,255(持仓 +325)。品种合计夜盘持仓 **629,147 手(+9,642),成交 103,248 手。**
  • 对各自日盘收盘价:AL2609 +40、AL2610 +45、AL2608 +70——三者全部为正。 对各自结算价:+110 / +105 / +130。
  • ⚑ **AL2609 夜盘最低 24,270,仍高于日盘收盘价 20 元——全程未跌破收盘价。** 序列:上周五 −35/−30/−20 → 周一 +15/+20/−10 → 周二 +40/+45/+70。
  • 盘前实时报价:主力连续 **24,320,+140(+0.579%)。**

确认:伦铝攻克唯一上方参考位

  • 官方 / Westmetall 口径(8月11日):现货结算 3,373.00 美元,涨 45.50 美元;三个月 3,374.00 美元,涨 53.50 美元;连续第七个交易日上涨。
  • ⚑ **收复 MA60 3,349.41 美元与核心区间上沿 3,350 美元——这是本简报连续多期单列的唯一上方参考位;现货现高于 MA60 23.59 美元,三个月高 24.59 美元。**
  • ⚑ **结构反向翻转:现货较三个月贴水 1.00 美元(contango),而 8月10日为升水 7.00 美元(backwardation);三个月涨幅较现货多 8.00 美元。**
  • 库存 **253,400 吨,日减 1,500 吨,连续第 31 个交易日下降。**
  • ⊘ 三个口径并列不作调和:TE **3,360.55 美元(+24.30,+0.73%),月 +6.49%、年 +27.86%,三季度预测上调至 3,400 美元(原 3,309.69)、十二个月上调至 3,604.43 美元(原 3,507.82);cnal 口径三个月 3,362.50(+27.50);SMM 实时报价 3,364.50(+2.00)。**

解读

  • 昨日的可证伪问题已被回答,且是正面回答(详见第二节与第六节)。
  • 但盘面质量的矛盾在本期加深而非缓解:日盘连续两日减仓、连续三日缩量,而夜盘连续两晚增仓上行。 两者方向相反,不应只取其一(此为解读)。
  • AL2609 与 AL2610 的持仓差由 8月10日的 46,556 手收窄至 **33,887 手——移仓换月仍在进行,可解释增仓集中于 10 月的相当一部分。**
  • 均线口径已滞后五个交易日,仅作参照:收盘高于 MA5 510 元、MA10 708 元、MA30 1,058.67 元、MA60 509 元(+2.14%)。 上方在观测数据内仍无参考位(最高为 AL2610 夜盘 24,380)。
  • 伦铝方面,昨日的阻力位已转为支撑位;下一个可讨论的位置是 3,400 美元整数关口,亦即 TE 新上调的三季度预测值。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

本期最重要的反转:现货这一次跟上了

  • SMM 分区域(8月11日):
  • 上海 A00 **24,100 元/吨(区间 24,090–24,110),+110 元;无锡 24,080,+120;杭州 24,140,+120;临沂 24,120,+130。**
  • 华中 **23,990,+100;重庆 24,060,+110;沈阳 24,000,+110。**
  • 佛山 **24,250,+100;天津 24,000,+10(唯一落后区域)。**
  • ⚑ **九个区域中八个上涨 100–130 元,而 8月10日为 10–60 元且三地零变动。**
  • 长江口径 **24,100,+120;南海 24,560(+140);广东南储 24,270(+110)。**
  • 基差(对 AL2608 收盘价 24,200):华东 −100(由 −120 收窄)、华中 −210(由 −220 收窄)、佛山 +50(由 +40 扩大)。
  • SMM 自身口径:华中成交贴水 120–140(前值 120–160);报价升水 40(对 08 合约)、20(对 08–10 价差)。

氧化铝:期货尾盘暴动,现货反而下跌

  • AO2610(8月11日,已完成主力切换):开 2,690、高 2,732、低 2,664,收 2,727,较结算价涨 37 元、较前收盘价涨 33 元;结算 2,689;成交 149,893 手,持仓 **231,910 手(+9,145)。**
  • ⚑ **收盘价高于自身结算价 38 元——本次上涨集中于尾盘,而非全时段重定价(此为解读)。**
  • AO2609:开 2,692、高 2,727、低 2,670,收 2,724(+25);结算 2,693;成交 169,241 手,持仓 **137,795 手(−13,394)。**
  • AO2611 收 2,747(+36),持仓 59,791(+3,484);AO2612 收 2,760(+33);AO2701 收 2,778(+37),持仓 69,864(+5,607);AO2707 收 2,866(+21)。 品种合计持仓 527,875(+6,568),成交 380,921 手。
  • 夜盘:AO2609 开 2,724、高 2,736、低 2,712,持仓 133,921(−3,874);AO2610 开 2,725、高 2,741、低 2,704,持仓 **239,201(+7,291)。**
  • ⚑ **现货(8月11日)多数下跌:SMM 氧化铝指数 2,692.52,跌 3.66 元;山东 2,700(−10)、河南 2,735(−5)、山西 2,725(−5)、广西 2,620(−5);贵州 2,765、连云港 2,865、鲅鱼圈 2,865 持平;澳洲 FOB 347 美元(+1)。**
  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨。

铝合金与其他

  • AD2610(8月11日):开 23,560、高 23,620、低 23,495,收 23,575;结算 23,555;较结算价 +80,较前收盘价仅 +15;成交 7,956 手,持仓 19,531(+574)。 AD2609 收 23,485(+60);夜盘 AD2610 开 23,595、高 23,680,持仓 19,810(+279)。
  • ⊘ ADC12 **24,200 元/吨(8月6日口径,延续);进口亏损约 800–827 元/吨,进口窗口关闭;再生铝开工率 49.4%。**
  • 原油:Brent **89.556 美元,+0.65(+0.73%),连续第五个交易日上涨;月 +7.51%、年 +36.46%;三季度预测由 85.58 上调至 89.485 美元。**
  • 美元指数 **99.828,+0.0052(+0.01%);自两个月低点 99.5 反弹后企稳于 99.8 附近;月 −1.39%、年 +2.03%。**

解读:确认成立,但需按其真实幅度记录

  • 本期与上期的关键差别在于幅度对称性:8月10日期货涨 125–185、现货涨 10–60;8月11日期货收盘涨 85–90、现货涨 100–130。 现货涨幅已超过近月期货,基差因而收窄。
  • 但收窄幅度只有 20 元,而前一日的扩大幅度为 90 元。 正确表述是:现货参与了,但并未引领(此为解读)。
  • 佛山升水由 40 升至 50,仍远低于本简报作为结构性紧张标尺的 80;天津仅 +10。 区域参与度改善但不均衡。
  • 氧化铝一栏本期出现期货与现货方向相反的少见组合。 机制上可解释——中国氧化铝现货定价时点早于欧洲公告——但这意味着成本栏不能仅凭期货升级为“上行”,仍应维持“企稳于高位”,直至现货确认。

三 · 库存

中国:本期无新印记(周二)

  • SMM 电解铝锭社会库存按周一、周四发布,8月11日为周二,无新数据。
  • 最后印记维持 **91.7 万吨(8月10日周一口径):较周四(8月6日)93.3 万吨减 1.6 万吨,较上周一(8月3日)95.8 万吨减 4.1 万吨。**
  • 周一序列:97.9 万吨(7月27日)→ 95.8 万吨(8月3日)→ 91.7 万吨(8月10日)。 下一印记为 **8月13日(周四)。**
  • ⊘ 另有 SMM 8月11日午间口径称“主流消费地铝锭库存周环比减少 4,500 吨,广东与无锡去库”——该口径与周一/周四序列不作调和,并列记录。**

LME 与其他

  • LME 库存 **253,400 吨(8月11日),日减 1,500 吨,连续第 31 个交易日下降;报道称为本世纪最低。**
  • ⊘ 注销 / 可用仓单结构自 8月6日起未刷新(注销 13,250 吨、可用 244,650 吨),已滞后六个交易日。
  • ⊘ 上期所铝仓单 8月11日数值未取得;最后确认值 **307,008 吨(8月7日),周减 13,216、月减 87,020(−22.08%)。**
  • ⊘ 铝棒社会库存 **13.25 万吨(8月10日),周一口径周增 1.05 万吨(另一口径称约 4,000 吨,冲突);下一印记 8月13日。**
  • 出库量(8月3日–9日,延续):铝锭 12.42 万吨(周增 0.77 万吨);铝棒 2.75 万吨(周减 0.6 万吨)。
  • 铸造铝合金锭社会库存 2.4 万吨,连续第十周去库 200 吨;全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨;港口铝土矿 94 万吨。

解读

  • 本节本期为延续性利多而非新增利多:中国侧无新数据,LME 侧续降。
  • LME 连续 31 日去库与结构由升水翻转回贴水这两条同时成立,并不矛盾:总量在减少,但即期紧张的价格信号消失了(此为解读)。
  • 真正的观察点在明日(8月13日)周四印记:上期周一口径周减 4.1 万吨为序列最陡,周四印记将回答“加速是否延续”。

四 · 宏观因素

联储:两个口径同步转鹰,且分歧收敛

  • ⊘ 并列记录:TE 口径(8月12日)9 月加息概率约 51%(8月11日为 46%,一周前 64%);CME FedWatch 口径按兵不动 45.1%,隐含加息约 55%(两日前为按兵不动 60%、加息约 40%)。
  • ⚑ **昨日两口径相互矛盾(46% 对 40%),今日两者同向上移且已收敛于“接近五五开”。**
  • 克利夫兰联储主席 Hammack:“可能需要多次加息”方能使通胀回到 2% 目标。
  • 下次 FOMC:9月15–16日。
  • 美元指数 **99.828,自两个月低点 99.5 反弹;报道提及美国财政部与日本联合干预以支持日元。**

美国 7 月 CPI:今晚公布

  • ⊘ 月率预期两个口径冲突:一为整体 +0.2%、核心 +0.1%;另一(昨日延续)为整体 +0.1%、核心 +0.2%。
  • 年率两个口径一致:整体 +3.4%(6 月 3.5%)、核心 +2.5%(6 月 2.6%)。
  • 延续:7 月非农 −2.3 万人,5、6 月合计下修 10.3 万人;失业率 4.1%;平均时薪同比 +3.2%。

霍尔木兹:消息面转向建设性

  • 巴基斯坦国防部长 Khawaja Asif(8月11日):美伊“接近达成某种安排”,并称过去两三天的信号显示双方处于以某种形式达成协议的边缘。
  • 伊朗外长 Araqchi:伊朗与阿曼在新航路模式上“非常接近”——船舶经伊朗水域进入、经阿曼水域驶出,取代此前 60 年的自由通行惯例;但重新开放仍以美方赔偿为条件。
  • 巴基斯坦内政部长 Mohsin Naqvi 于 8月11日访问德黑兰。
  • 反向因素:特朗普加码,要求伊朗就其归咎于德黑兰的袭击死亡者支付赔偿,与伊朗的战争赔偿要求相互对冲;彭博 8月11日的框架为“巴方称协议临近,而美伊双方立场同时趋硬”。
  • 免费通行窗口仍于 **8月16日前后到期;美国 SPR 为 1983 年以来最低。**

能源与中国(延续)

  • Brent **89.556 美元,连续第五个交易日上涨;但美国原油库存增加 910 万桶,为 2 月以来最大周度增幅。**
  • OPEC+ 核心七国自 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日。
  • 中国 7 月 CPI +0.5%(预期 +0.8%)、PPI +3.5%(预期 +3.8%);7 月出口同比 +23%,顺差 1,125 亿美元;NBS 与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期宏观栏的判定应为利空,且是近两周首次三条主线同时转向不利:联储转鹰、美元企稳回升、地缘降温。
  • 本简报周一将地缘栏由“背景变量”上调至“次要驱动”,本期须部分下调:六点最后通牒之后出现了第一条明确的缓和信号,且来自第三方调停国而非当事方。
  • 然而,铝价在上述三条不利变化下仍创反弹新高——这是本期最安静但最有用的一条观察:当前铝的定价函数由供应侧主导,宏观权重下降(此为解读)。
  • CPI 是今晚唯一能改变上述定价函数的输入;需注意月率两个预期口径互相冲突,应以年率为主要参照。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 本期核心新增:Alunorte 降至 50% 负荷

  • 公告方与日期:挪威海德鲁(Norsk Hydro),2026年8月11日。
  • 对象:巴西帕拉州 Alunorte 氧化铝精炼厂,产能 630 万吨/年,被描述为中国以外全球最大氧化铝精炼厂。
  • 事由:供气方 CELBA(New Fortress Group 旗下)通报天然气供应中断;CELBA 同时持有 Barcarena 终端设施。
  • 措施:产量临时削减至产能的 50%;采购现货气源;已申请直接接入 Barcarena LNG 接收与再气化终端;同时寻求长期替代气源,并保留现行供气协议下的合同权利。
  • 财务影响:预计对 2026 年三季度铝土矿与氧化铝板块造成 7,500 万–1 亿美元影响(减产 + 高于合同价的购气成本)。
  • 时间表:“待供气恢复正常后即开始爬产”,未给出具体日期。
  • 本简报推算(解读):630 万吨 × 50% ≈ **折年减量 315 万吨,约 8,630 吨/日;叠加 7月16日美铝下调的 20–30 万吨,全球氧化铝平衡的减量证据在一个月内连续第二次出现。**

其余供应(延续)

  • 海德鲁 Qatalum(卡塔尔)因伊朗打击中东能源设施后的天然气短缺停产;波斯湾地区约占全球产量 **10%,自 3 月冲突升级以来持续受阻。**
  • 境外:7 月中国以外产量同比 **−6.7%;某机构预计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨。**
  • 国内:周度产量基本持平,铝水比例上升;7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%,铸锭产量同比 −15.1%;铝水比例 7 月 78.3%、8 月预计 78.5%;建成产能约 4,629 万吨、运行产能 4,531 万吨;4,500 万吨天花板约束性增强。
  • 复产:Slovalco 四季度、密苏里年底、EGA Al Taweelah 持续(89/1,262 槽);几内亚上半年铝土矿出口 1.148 亿吨(+15%)。
  • 成本与利润(8月4日口径,延续):平均完全成本 16,252 元/吨,平均利润 6,719 元/吨。

需求

  • 加工开工率 **60.1% 且下行;7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个板块全部收缩;再生铝开工率 49.4%;铝棒加工费回落;传统淡季。**
  • 光伏组件排产:7 月 38.5 GW → 8 月 39.3 GW。
  • ⚑ SMM 8月11日明确表述:24,000 元之上的价格对下游采购构成抑制,成交主要集中于贸易商之间;华中成交量偏低、下游采购情绪低迷。
  • 但同期华东采购意愿指数 3.20(+0.04),较 8月6日的 2.86 上升 0.34——两条表述方向相反,并列记录。

解读

  • Alunorte 是本简报所载单体最大的供应事件,其性质是远期减量:它解释了伦铝三个月涨幅大于现货、以及氧化铝期货尾盘异动。
  • 但它尚未出现在任何一个现货价格中:氧化铝现货当日下跌,澳洲 FOB 仅 +1 美元。 因此该项应记入成本地板的前瞻栏,而非当期栏(此为解读)。
  • 需求侧的两条读数互相冲突:SMM 描述价格抑制采购,而华东采购意愿指数连续回升。 可能的调和是区域分化(华东改善、华中疲弱),但本简报不作强行调和。

六 · 原铝现货市场

分区域(8月11日)

  • 上海 **24,100,+110(24,090–24,110);无锡 24,080,+120;杭州 24,140,+120;临沂 24,120,+130。**
  • 华中 **23,990,+100;重庆 24,060,+110;沈阳 24,000,+110;天津 24,000,+10。**
  • 佛山 **24,250,+100(24,230–24,270)。**
  • 推算基差(对 AL2608 收盘 24,200):华东 −100、华中 −210、佛山 +50。
  • SMM 口径:华中成交贴水 **120–140(前值 120–160);报价升水 40(08 合约)/ 20(08–10)。**

情绪指数(8月11日,SMM)

  • 华东:出货意愿 3.16(+0.01);采购意愿 3.20(+0.04)。 对比 8月6日:出货 3.10、采购 **2.86——采购端三个交易日累计 +0.34。**
  • 华中:出货意愿 3.06(+0.02);采购意愿 2.95(−0.01);成交量偏低,下游采购情绪低迷。
  • SMM 表述:铝价站上 24,000 抑制下游采购,成交活跃度主要来自贸易商之间;临近换月,华东贴水收窄。

解读

  • 本简报此前记录的方法论判断——“该机制对基差与区域价差的支撑强于对绝对价格的支撑”——在 8月10日首次受到挑战;本期该挑战被部分收回:绝对价格与基差同向改善。
  • 但改善幅度需如实记录:基差收窄 20 元,佛山升水由 40 至 50,仍不及 80。
  • ⚑ 最有信息量的一条是华东采购意愿指数 2.86 → 3.20:它是唯一直接测量买方行为的指标,且其回升领先于基差收窄。
  • 华东与华中的分化(采购 3.20 对 2.95)是本期区域层面的核心事实,优先跟踪华东。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(17 项)

  • ⚑ **Alunorte 降至 50% 负荷:630 万吨/年、中国以外最大氧化铝精炼厂,因 CELBA 断气;三季度影响 7,500 万–1 亿美元,无恢复时间表;推算折年减量约 315 万吨(约 8,630 吨/日)。**
  • AL2609 8月11日收 24,250,涨 215 元(+0.89%),较前收盘价涨 85 元,连续第二个交易日收高并创本轮反弹新高。
  • AL2610 收 24,260(+210);全部 12 个挂牌合约收于 24,150 及以上。
  • 夜盘连续第二晚高开于日盘收盘价之上,且三个主力全部为正:+40 / +45 / +70;夜盘高点 24,365;最低 24,270 仍高于收盘价 20 元,全程未跌破。
  • 夜盘增仓:AL2609 **+2,605 手、AL2610 +4,702 手;品种合计夜盘持仓 629,147 手(+9,642),日盘 619,505 手(+9,434)。**
  • ⚑ **现货本次跟上:A00 上海 24,100,+110 元;九地中八地上涨 100–130 元(前一日 10–60 元);长江口径 24,100(+120)。**
  • 基差收窄:华东 −120 → −100、华中 −220 → −210、佛山升水 40 → 50;SMM 华中成交贴水由 120–160 收窄至 **120–140。**
  • 华东采购意愿指数 **3.20(+0.04),较 8月6日的 2.86 上升 0.34;出货意愿 3.16(+0.01)。**
  • 伦铝连续第七个交易日上涨:现货 3,373.00 美元(+45.50)、三个月 3,374.00 美元(+53.50)。
  • ⚑ **收复 MA60 3,349.41 美元与核心区间上沿 3,350 美元——本简报连续多期单列的唯一上方参考位,现货现高于 MA60 23.59 美元。**
  • LME 库存 **253,400 吨,连续第 31 个交易日下降,报道称为本世纪最低。**
  • TE **上调三季度铝价预测至 3,400 美元(原 3,309.69)、十二个月至 3,604.43 美元(原 3,507.82)。**
  • 氧化铝期货全线上行:AO2610 收 2,727(+37)、AO2609 收 2,724(+25)、AO2701 收 2,778(+37),品种持仓 527,875(+6,568)。
  • 卡塔尔 Qatalum 因断气停产;波斯湾约占全球产量 10% 自 3 月起受阻;7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%;预计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨;美铝氧化铝指引下调 20–30 万吨。
  • 中国 4,500 万吨产能天花板约束性增强;7 月铸锭产量同比 −15.1%;铝水比例 78.3% → 8 月预计 78.5%,可交割形态金属继续收缩。
  • 社会库存 **91.7 万吨,上期周减 4.1 万吨为序列最陡(延续);SMM 午间口径称主流消费地库存周减 4,500 吨,广东与无锡去库。**
  • Brent **89.556 美元,连续第五个交易日上涨;霍尔木兹未解且免费窗口 8月16日前后到期;美国 SPR 为 1983 年以来最低。**

利空因素(13 项)

  • ⚑ **AL2609 持仓连续第二个交易日减少(−1,415 手),成交量连续第三个交易日下降(151,302 → 132,277 → 131,151)——在创反弹新高的同时,近月参与度持续收缩。**
  • 净增仓再度集中于 **AL2610(日盘 +9,157、夜盘 +4,702),而 AL2608 减仓 3,325 手;AL2609 与 AL2610 持仓差由 46,556 手收窄至 33,887 手,移仓可解释相当一部分。**
  • ⚑ **伦铝 7.00 美元的现货升水仅维持一个交易日即翻转回 1.00 美元贴水(contango);三个月涨幅较现货多 8.00 美元——即期紧张的价格信号消失。**
  • ⚑ **氧化铝现货在期货大涨当日反而下跌:SMM 指数 2,692.52(−3.66)、山东 −10、河南 −5、山西 −5、广西 −5;澳洲 FOB 仅 +1 美元。**
  • 氧化铝的上涨是尾盘事件:AO2610 收盘价高于自身结算价 38 元,AO2609 持仓大幅减少 **13,394 手。**
  • 基差仍处深度贴水:华东 −100、华中 −210;佛山升水 50,仍远低于本简报的 80 标尺。
  • 天津仅 +10 元,与其余八地的 +100–130 明显背离——区域参与度改善但不均衡。
  • ⚑ **联储定价转鹰:9 月加息概率由 46%/40% 升至约 51%(TE)/ 55%(FedWatch 隐含);Hammack 称“可能需要多次加息”。**
  • 美元指数 **99.828,自两个月低点 99.5 反弹企稳。**
  • ⚑ **霍尔木兹消息面转向建设性:巴方称美伊“接近达成某种安排”,伊朗与阿曼在新航路模式上“非常接近”——缓和将削减供应风险溢价。**
  • 美国原油库存增加 910 万桶,为 2 月以来最大周度增幅。
  • 需求侧读数未变且仍弱:加工开工率 60.1% 且下行、加工 PMI 42.2(七板块全收缩)、再生铝开工 49.4%、铝棒加工费回落、传统淡季;SMM 明确称 24,000 之上的价格抑制下游采购,成交集中于贸易商之间;华中采购意愿 2.95(−0.01)。
  • ⊘ 数据缺口:周二无社会库存新印记;上期所仓单未取得(最后 30.7008 万吨,8月7日);LME 注销仓单结构已滞后六个交易日;铝棒库存 13.25 万吨(周增 1.05 万吨)延续,铝棒出库周减 6,000 吨。

八 · 一句话观点

昨日的可证伪问题得到了正面回答,而一条更大的问题在同一夜被写了进来。 先说答案:基差开始收敛,且是九个区域中八个同时收敛——SMM A00 上海涨 110 元至 24,100,无锡 +120、杭州 +120、临沂 +130、重庆与沈阳 +110、华中与佛山 +100,而近月期货收盘仅涨 85–90 元,现货涨幅首次超过期货;华东基差由 −120 收窄至 −100,华中由 −220 至 −210,佛山升水由 40 扩至 50,SMM 自身的华中成交贴水由 120–160 收窄至 120–140,华东采购意愿指数 3.20(+0.04),较 8月6日的 2.86 累计上升 0.34——这是唯一直接测量买方行为的指标,且其回升先于基差收窄;伦铝在同一天攻克了本简报连续多期单列的唯一上方参考位:现货 3,373.00 美元(+45.50)、三个月 3,374.00 美元(+53.50),连续第七日上涨,同时收复 MA60 3,349.41 美元与核心区间上沿 3,350 美元,库存 253,400 吨连续第 31 日下降;沪铝 AL2609 收 24,250(+215,+0.89%),连续第二日收高并创反弹新高,夜盘连续第二晚高开且三主力全部为正(+40/+45/+70),最高 24,365,最低 24,270 全程未跌破收盘价,持仓 +2,605。然而必须直接承认三条:其一,本简报昨日称为“唯一无法用持仓结构解释”的 7.00 美元现货升水,仅维持一个交易日即翻转回 1.00 美元贴水,且三个月涨幅较现货多 8.00 美元——即期紧张的价格信号消失,取而代之的是远期定价;其二,氧化铝现货在期货大涨当日反而下跌(SMM 指数 2,692.52,−3.66;山东 −10、河南 −5、山西 −5、广西 −5),且期货上涨是尾盘事件——AO2610 收 2,727,高于自身结算价 2,689 达 38 元,AO2609 同时减仓 13,394 手;其三,AL2609 持仓连续第二日减少 1,415 手、成交量连续第三日下降至 131,151 手,全部净增仓仍集中于 AL2610(日盘 +9,157、夜盘 +4,702)。而将上述三条串起来的,正是本期的核心新增事件:挪威海德鲁 8月11日宣布,巴西帕拉州 Alunorte——产能 630 万吨/年、中国以外全球最大氧化铝精炼厂——因供气方 CELBA(New Fortress Group)断气,产量已临时削减至 50%,三季度对铝土矿与氧化铝板块影响 7,500 万–1 亿美元,恢复时间表为“待供气正常后”,即无日期;按 630 万吨的一半计,折年减量约 315 万吨、约 8,630 吨/日,叠加 7月16日美铝的 20–30 万吨,一个月内连续第二次出现全球氧化铝减量证据;这正是“远期供应损失”的标准形态——它先反映在伦铝三个月、再反映在氧化铝尾盘,而尚未反映在任何一个现货价格中;宏观则在底层三线同时转向不利,而铝价照涨不误:9 月加息概率由 46%/40% 升至约 51%/55%(Hammack 称“可能需要多次加息”),美元自两个月低点 99.5 回升至 99.828,霍尔木兹消息面转向建设性(巴基斯坦国防部长称美伊“接近达成某种安排”,伊朗与阿曼在新航路模式上“非常接近”),另有美国原油库存增加 910 万桶——在三条不利变化之下仍创反弹新高,说明当前铝的定价函数由供应侧主导,宏观权重下降(此为解读);净判定由 14:10 扩大至利多 17 项、利空 13 项,且多头栏的构成再次变化:它现在由一个可识别的实物供应事件、伦铝对自身技术顶的突破、以及首次参与本轮上涨的中国现货共同承载;因此今日的可证伪问题落在唯一能了结争论的那一项上:SMM 氧化铝指数能否自 2,692.52 转涨,以及伦铝现货对三个月能否由 1.00 美元贴水重回升水?若 Alunorte 在实物市场是真实的,这两件事必须在一至两个交易日内发生;若期货守住涨幅而氧化铝现货继续阴跌、contango 持续,则一座 630 万吨精炼厂降至半负荷就是被完全定价在纸面上的——而一轮同时站在远期供应损失、收缩的近月持仓与转鹰的联储之上的上涨,就有了一条具体且可识别的失败路径。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  1. 氧化铝现货能否自 2,692.52 转涨——本期唯一能了结争论的确认项: 8月11日期货尾盘暴动(AO2610 收 2,727,高于结算价 38 元),而现货指数下跌 3.66,山东 −10、河南 −5、山西 −5、广西 −5。 关注今日 SMM 氧化铝指数与山东报价的方向:上行则 Alunorte 已进入实物定价,成本栏可由“企稳”升级为“上行”;继续持平或下跌,则本次重定价应明确标注为仅存在于期货。 同时关注澳洲 FOB 能否自 347 美元继续上行。
  2. 伦铝结构能否由 1.00 美元贴水重回升水: 8月10日为升水 7.00 美元,8月11日翻转为贴水 1.00 美元,且三个月涨幅较现货多 8.00 美元。 关注现货/三个月价差方向:重回升水则 Alunorte 的减量已传导至即期;贴水持续扩大则本轮上涨仍属远期供应预期定价。 同时关注库存能否延续第 32 日下降(现 253,400 吨)。
  3. AL2609 持仓能否止跌——“空头回补 vs 新增多头”仍未解决: 日盘连续两日减仓(−684、−1,415)、连续三日缩量(151,302 → 132,277 → 131,151),而夜盘连续两晚增仓(+949、+2,605)。 关注今日日盘 AL2609 持仓方向与成交量能否回到 15 万手以上:两者同时改善方可上调本轮上行的可持续性;若日盘继续减仓,则日盘与夜盘的背离进入第三个交易日,应对突破强度进一步打折。
  4. 今晚美国 7 月 CPI,以及联储两口径的收敛方向: 年率预期一致:整体 +3.4%(6 月 3.5%)、核心 +2.5%(6 月 2.6%);⊘ 月率两口径冲突(+0.2%/+0.1% 对 +0.1%/+0.2%),应以年率为主。 当前加息定价:TE 约 51%、FedWatch 隐含约 55%。 关注公布后美元指数(现 **99.828)、伦铝与沪铝夜盘的同步反应;若 CPI 高于预期而铝价仍不回落,则“供应主导定价”的判定得到进一步确认。**
  5. 24,200 由阻力转为支撑的第一次测试: AL2608 收 24,200 恰为 SMM 预期区间 23,200–24,200 的上沿;夜盘最低 24,270 尚未测试该位。 关注今日日盘能否以收盘价守住 24,200;守住则上方参考 24,320(盘前报价)、24,365(AL2609 夜盘高)、24,380(AL2610 夜盘高),再上为 24,500 整数关口(观测数据内无参考);失守则下方依次为 24,180(结算)、24,100(原区间上沿)、24,095(8月11日低)。
  6. 基差能否继续收敛,以及佛山升水能否回到 80: 8月11日华东 −100(收窄 20)、华中 −210(收窄 10)、佛山升水 40 → 50。 关注三点:华东能否收窄至 −80 以内、佛山升水能否重返 80、以及天津(+10)是否补涨。 同时跟踪华东采购意愿指数能否自 3.20 继续上行(8月6日为 2.86),该指标本期领先于基差。
  7. 明日(8月13日)周四社会库存印记,以及铝棒印记: 上期周一口径周减 **4.1 万吨 为序列最陡(97.9 → 95.8 → 91.7 万吨);周四序列为 95.3(7月30日)→ 93.3(8月6日)。** 关注周四印记能否延续加速;同时关注铝棒库存能否自 13.25 万吨转降——上期铝棒周增 1.05 万吨、出库周减 6,000 吨,是与铝锭去库方向相反的一栏。
  8. 霍尔木兹的三条可证伪节点,以及 Alunorte 的后续披露: (1)8月16日前后免费通行窗口是否延期或到期失效;(2)伊朗-阿曼“新航路模式”是否落地为书面安排,以及特朗普的赔偿反要求是否撤回;(3)Brent 能否延续五连涨并站稳 90 美元(现 89.556,但美国原油库存增加 910 万桶)。 另关注海德鲁是否披露 **Alunorte 的复产时间表或气源解决方案,以及是否有第三方机构给出该减量对 2026 年全球氧化铝平衡的量化测算。**

1 · Market Performance

The central fact: a second consecutive higher close and a new rebound high

  • AL2609 (August 11, from SHFE’s own daily file, last-trade caliber): open 24,180, high 24,260, low 24,095, **close 24,250; settlement 24,180.**
  • Change: **+215 (+0.89%) against the previous settlement of 24,035; +85 (+0.35%) against the previous close of 24,165.**
  • Volume **131,151 lots (132,277 on August 10, 151,302 on August 7) — a third consecutive decline; open interest 239,444, DOWN 1,415 — a second consecutive decline.**
  • Position: **150 above the 24,100 core-range top; the 23,500–24,100 range is now fully behind the price.**

The rest of the curve: all twelve contracts close at or above 24,150

  • AL2608: open 24,100, high 24,210, low 24,075, **close 24,200, +195; settlement 24,140; volume 7,925, open interest 18,755 (−3,325).**
  • AL2610: open 24,200, high 24,275, low 24,115, **close 24,260, +210; settlement 24,200; volume 82,060, open interest 203,460 (+9,157) — a third consecutive large build.**
  • AL2611 close 24,225 (+190), open interest 58,188 (+2,550); AL2612 close 24,200 (+185), open interest 51,368 (+992); AL2701 close 24,190 (+190), open interest 25,634 (+909); AL2707 close 24,150 (+130).
  • Whole product: open interest **619,505 (+9,434) on volume of 256,186.**

The night session: a second consecutive gap above the close — and this time on all three actives

  • AL2609: open **24,290, high 24,365, low 24,270; volume 57,363, open interest 242,049 (+2,605).**
  • AL2610: open **24,305, high 24,380, low 24,285; volume 31,381, open interest 208,162 (+4,702).**
  • AL2608: open 24,270, high 24,315, low 24,240; volume 670, open interest 18,310 (−445).
  • AL2611 open 24,300 (OI +722); AL2612 open 24,255 (OI +325). Whole-product night open interest **629,147 (+9,642) on 103,248 lots.**
  • Against their own **day-session closes: AL2609 +40, AL2610 +45, AL2608 +70 — all three positive.** Against **settlements: +110 / +105 / +130.**
  • ⚑ **AL2609’s night LOW of 24,270 sits 20 ABOVE its day close — the session never traded back to the close.** Sequence: Friday −35 / −30 / −20 → Monday +15 / +20 / −10 → Tuesday +40 / +45 / +70.
  • A live pre-open quote for the main continuous carried **24,320, +140 (+0.579%).**

Confirmed: LME clears the single overhead reference

  • Official/Westmetall caliber (August 11): **cash settlement $3,373.00, +$45.50; three-month $3,374.00, +$53.50; a seventh consecutive higher session.**
  • ⚑ **MA60 at $3,349.41 and the $3,350 core-range top are CLEARED — the single overhead reference this brief has carried for a week; cash now sits $23.59 above MA60, three-month $24.59 above.**
  • ⚑ **Structure reverses: cash $1.00 BELOW three-month — a contango, against a $7.00 backwardation on August 10; three-month rose $8.00 more than cash.**
  • Stocks **253,400 mt, −1,500, a thirty-first consecutive draw.**
  • ⊘ Three calibers recorded without reconciliation: TradingEconomics **$3,360.55, +$24.30 (+0.73%), month +6.49%, year +27.86%, with the Q3 forecast RAISED to $3,400.00 from $3,309.69 and the 12-month to $3,604.43 from $3,507.82; a cnal caliber gives three-month $3,362.50 (+$27.50); a live SMM quote carried $3,364.50 (+$2.00).**

Interpretation

  • Yesterday’s falsifiable question was answered, and answered **in the affirmative (sections 2 and 6).**
  • But **the contradiction inside the tape deepened rather than eased: two consecutive day sessions of falling open interest on three consecutive declines in volume, against two consecutive nights of buying above the close with open interest building.** The two point opposite ways and neither should be taken alone (interpretation).
  • The AL2609-to-AL2610 open-interest gap narrowed from 46,556 lots on August 10 to **33,887 — the roll to October continues and explains a substantial part of where the build is going.**
  • Moving averages are five sessions stale and shown for reference only: the close sits +510 over MA5, +708 over MA10, +1,058.67 over MA30 and **+509 (+2.14%) over MA60.** There is **still no reference level above in the observed data (the highest print is AL2610’s night high of 24,380).**
  • On LME, **yesterday’s resistance is now support; the next discussable level is the $3,400 round figure, which is also TradingEconomics’ newly raised Q3 forecast.**

The period’s key reversal: spot followed this time

  • SMM regional table (August 11):
  • Shanghai A00 **24,100 yuan/mt (24,090–24,110), +110; Wuxi 24,080, +120; Hangzhou 24,140, +120; Linyi 24,120, +130.**
  • Central China **23,990, +100; Chongqing 24,060, +110; Shenyang 24,000, +110.**
  • Foshan **24,250, +100; Tianjin 24,000, +10 (the only laggard).**
  • ⚑ **Eight of nine regions rose 100 to 130 yuan, against a 10-to-60 band on August 10 with three regions unchanged.**
  • Changjiang caliber **24,100, +120; Nanhai 24,560 (+140); Guangdong Nanchu 24,270 (+110).**
  • Basis against AL2608’s close of 24,200: **East China −100 (narrowed from −120), Central China −210 (from −220), Foshan +50 (widened from +40).**
  • SMM’s own caliber: **Central China transactions at a discount of 120–140 (from 120–160); quoted premium 40 against the August contract and 20 against the August–October spread.**

Alumina: futures explode into the close, spot goes the other way

  • AO2610 (August 11 — the roll is complete): open 2,690, high 2,732, low 2,664, **close 2,727, +37 on settlement and +33 on the close; settlement 2,689; volume 149,893, open interest 231,910 (+9,145).**
  • ⚑ **The close sits 38 ABOVE its own settlement — the move was concentrated in the closing hour, not repriced across the session (interpretation).**
  • AO2609: open 2,692, high 2,727, low 2,670, **close 2,724 (+25); settlement 2,693; volume 169,241, open interest 137,795 (−13,394).**
  • AO2611 close 2,747 (+36), open interest 59,791 (+3,484); AO2612 close 2,760 (+33); AO2701 close 2,778 (+37), open interest 69,864 (+5,607); AO2707 close 2,866 (+21). Product totals: open interest 527,875 (+6,568) on 380,921 lots.
  • Night: AO2609 open 2,724, high 2,736, low 2,712, open interest 133,921 (−3,874); AO2610 open 2,725, high 2,741, low 2,704, open interest **239,201 (+7,291).**
  • ⚑ **Spot (August 11) fell across most regions: SMM alumina index 2,692.52, −3.66; Shandong 2,700 (−10), Henan 2,735 (−5), Shanxi 2,725 (−5), Guangxi 2,620 (−5); Guizhou 2,765, Lianyungang 2,865 and Bayuquan 2,865 flat; Australian FOB $347, +$1.**
  • Industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt.

Alloy and others

  • AD2610 (August 11): open 23,560, high 23,620, low 23,495, **close 23,575; settlement 23,555; +80 on settlement but only +15 on the close; volume 7,956, open interest 19,531 (+574).** AD2609 close 23,485 (+60); night AD2610 open 23,595, high 23,680, open interest 19,810 (+279).
  • ⊘ ADC12 **24,200 yuan/mt (August 6 caliber, carried); import loss about 800–827 yuan/mt with the window closed; secondary operating rate 49.4%.**
  • Crude: Brent **$89.556, +$0.65 (+0.73%), a FIFTH consecutive higher session; month +7.51%, year +36.46%; Q3 forecast RAISED to $89.485 from $85.58.**
  • Dollar index **99.828, +0.0052 (+0.01%); steady near 99.8 after rebounding from a two-month low of 99.5; month −1.39%, year +2.03%.**

Interpretation: confirmation stands, but must be sized honestly

  • The difference from the previous period is the **symmetry of magnitude: on August 10 futures added 125–185 and spot 10–60; on August 11 futures closed +85 to +90 and spot added 100–130.** Spot **outpaced the front month, and the basis narrowed as a result.**
  • But **the narrowing is only 20 yuan against a 90-yuan blowout the day before.** The correct statement is that **the physical market participated; it did not lead (interpretation).**
  • Foshan’s premium rose from 40 to 50 and remains **far short of the 80 this brief has used as its structural-tightness marker; Tianjin added only 10.** Regional participation improved but is **uneven.**
  • Alumina produced the rare combination of **futures and spot moving in opposite directions.** It is mechanically explicable — the Chinese alumina fix is set before the European announcement reaches it — but it means **the cost column cannot be upgraded to “rising” on futures alone and should stay at “stabilised at a higher level” until spot confirms.**

3 · Inventory

China: no new print this period (Tuesday)

  • SMM publishes ingot social inventory on **Monday and Thursday; August 11 was a Tuesday, so there is no new figure.**
  • The last print stands at **917,000 mt (August 10, Monday caliber): −16,000 mt against Thursday August 6’s 933,000 and −41,000 mt against Monday August 3’s 958,000.**
  • Monday series: 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10). Next print **Thursday August 13.**
  • ⊘ A separate SMM midday caliber dated August 11 describes ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas as **down 4,500 mt week-on-week with Guangdong and Wuxi destocking — not reconciled against the Monday/Thursday series.**

LME and others

  • LME stocks **253,400 mt (August 11), −1,500, a thirty-first consecutive draw; reporting describes them as lowest this century.**
  • ⊘ The cancelled/live warrant split has not refreshed since August 6 (cancelled 13,250 mt, live 244,650 mt) and is now **six sessions stale.**
  • ⊘ SHFE aluminium warrants for August 11 were not retrievable; last confirmed **307,008 mt (August 7), −13,216 w/w and −87,020 (−22.08%) m/m.**
  • ⊘ Aluminium billet **132,500 mt (August 10), +10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber against a separate caliber of about 4,000 mt (conflict); next print August 13.**
  • Outbound (August 3–9, carried): ingot 124,200 mt (+7,700 w/w); billet 27,500 mt (−6,000 w/w).
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt draw; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt.

Interpretation

  • This section is a **carried bullish item this period rather than a new one: no new Chinese data, LME still drawing.**
  • A thirty-first consecutive LME draw and **a flip from backwardation back to contango are both true and not contradictory: total metal is still leaving, but the price signal for immediacy has disappeared (interpretation).**
  • The live observation is **tomorrow’s Thursday print (August 13): last week’s Monday caliber showed the steepest weekly draw in the series at −41,000 mt, and Thursday will say whether the acceleration held.**

4 · Macro Factors

The Fed: both calibers turn hawkish, and the gap between them closes

  • ⊘ Recorded side by side: **TradingEconomics (August 12) puts September hike odds near 51% (46% on August 11, 64% a week earlier); CME FedWatch puts no change at 45.1%, implying a hike near 55% (against a 60% hold, 40% hike, two days ago).**
  • ⚑ **Yesterday the two calibers contradicted each other at 46% and 40%; today both moved up and converged on something close to a coin flip.**
  • Cleveland Fed President Hammack: **several rate increases may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.**
  • Next FOMC: **September 15–16.**
  • Dollar index **99.828, rebounding from a two-month low of 99.5; reporting cites US Treasury intervention alongside Japan to support the yen.**

US July CPI: tonight

  • ⊘ The monthly consensus conflicts across two calibers: one gives **headline +0.2%, core +0.1%; the other (carried from yesterday) gives headline +0.1%, core +0.2%.**
  • The annual figures agree: **headline +3.4% (June 3.5%), core +2.5% (June 2.6%).**
  • Carried: July payrolls −23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000; unemployment 4.1%; average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y.

Hormuz: the headlines turn constructive

  • Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif (August 11): the US and Iran are **“close to some sort of arrangement,” with signals over the past two to three days showing the two sides on the verge of an agreement in one form or another.**
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: Iran and Oman are “very close” on a **new shipping-route model — vessels entering through Iranian waters and exiting through Omani waters — replacing the 60-year practice of free transit; reopening remains conditioned on US compensation.**
  • Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi travelled to Tehran on August 11.
  • Against it: **Trump hardened his stance, demanding Iran pay reparations for deaths from attacks he attributes to Tehran, countering Iran’s own war-compensation demand; Bloomberg’s August 11 framing is that Pakistan says a deal is close even as Iran and the US harden stances.**
  • The fee-free transit window still expires **around August 16; the US SPR is reported at its lowest since 1983.**

Energy and China (carried)

  • Brent **$89.556, a fifth consecutive higher session; but US crude inventories rose 9.1 million barrels, the largest weekly build since February.**
  • OPEC+ core seven adding 188,000 bpd from September.
  • China July CPI +0.5% (vs +0.8% expected) and PPI +3.5% (vs +3.8%); July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The macro column reads **bearish this period, and it is the first time in a fortnight that all three main axes turned unfavourable at once: a hawkish Fed, a firming dollar, and a de-escalating Hormuz.**
  • This brief upgraded the geopolitical column to a secondary driver on Monday on the strength of Iran’s six-point ultimatum; **that upgrade must be partly withdrawn: the first clear de-escalation signal since then has arrived, and it came from a third-party mediator rather than either principal.**
  • And yet **aluminum made a new rebound high against all three — the period’s quietest but most useful observation: the current pricing function is supply-led, with macro carrying reduced weight (interpretation).**
  • Tonight’s CPI is the only input capable of changing that function; note that **the two monthly consensus calibers conflict, so the annual figures are the better reference.**

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ The period’s central new item: Alunorte cut to 50% of capacity

  • Announcer and date: **Norsk Hydro, August 11, 2026.**
  • Asset: **the Alunorte refinery in Pará, Brazil — 6.3 Mt/yr capacity, described as the largest alumina refinery outside China.**
  • Cause: **gas supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, communicated disruptions to natural gas availability; CELBA also holds the Barcarena terminal infrastructure.**
  • Measures: **production temporarily reduced to 50% of capacity; spot gas volumes being purchased; direct access requested to the Barcarena LNG receiving and regasification terminal; long-term alternative supply being pursued while contractual rights under the existing Gas Supply Agreement are maintained.**
  • Financial impact: **an estimated $75–100 million to the Bauxite & Alumina segment in Q3 2026 from reduced output and above-contract gas prices.**
  • Timeline: **ramp-up to full production “as soon as gas availability normalizes” — no date given.**
  • This brief’s arithmetic (interpretation): 6.3 Mt × 50% ≈ **3.15 Mt of annualized production removed, about 8,630 mt/day; stacked on Alcoa’s 200,000–300,000 mt guidance cut of July 16, this is the second reduction to the global alumina balance in a month.**

Other supply (carried)

  • Norsk Hydro’s **Qatalum in Qatar is shut on natural gas shortages following Iranian strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure; the Persian Gulf region — roughly 10% of global production — has been hampered since the March escalation.**
  • Ex-China July output **−6.7% y/y; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026.**
  • Domestic: weekly output basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion rising; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with **casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt, operating capacity 45.31 Mt; the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding.**
  • Restarts: Slovalco Q4, Missouri at year-end, EGA Al Taweelah ongoing (89 of 1,262 pots); Guinea H1 bauxite exports 114.8 Mt (+15% y/y).
  • Cost and margin (August 4 caliber, carried): average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt, average profit 6,719 yuan/mt.

Demand

  • Processing operating rate **60.1% and falling; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; secondary operating rate 49.4%; billet processing fees pulled back; traditional off-season.**
  • PV module scheduled output: 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August.
  • ⚑ SMM states explicitly on August 11 that **prices above 24,000 curbed downstream purchases, with transaction activity concentrated among traders; Central China trading volume was low with sluggish downstream buying.**
  • Yet in the same period **East China’s purchasing sentiment index printed 3.20 (+0.04), up 0.34 from 2.86 on August 6 — the two statements point opposite ways and are recorded side by side.**

Interpretation

  • Alunorte is **the largest single supply event this brief has recorded, and its nature is a forward reduction: it explains why LME’s three-month outran its cash and why alumina futures moved in the closing hour.**
  • But **it has not yet appeared in any spot price: Chinese alumina spot fell on the day and Australian FOB added only $1.** The item therefore belongs in the **forward cost-floor column, not the current one (interpretation).**
  • The two demand readings **conflict: SMM describes prices curbing purchases while East China’s purchasing index keeps recovering.** The likely reconciliation is **regional divergence (East China improving, Central China weak), but this brief does not force it.**

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

By region (August 11)

  • Shanghai **24,100, +110 (24,090–24,110); Wuxi 24,080, +120; Hangzhou 24,140, +120; Linyi 24,120, +130.**
  • Central China **23,990, +100; Chongqing 24,060, +110; Shenyang 24,000, +110; Tianjin 24,000, +10.**
  • Foshan **24,250, +100 (24,230–24,270).**
  • Computed basis against AL2608’s close of 24,200: **East China −100, Central China −210, Foshan +50.**
  • SMM caliber: Central China transactions at a discount of **120–140 (from 120–160); quoted premium 40 against the August contract and 20 against August–October.**

Sentiment indices (August 11, SMM)

  • East China: **shipment 3.16 (+0.01); purchasing 3.20 (+0.04).** Against August 6: shipment 3.10, purchasing **2.86 — the buying side has added 0.34 in three sessions.**
  • Central China: **shipment 3.06 (+0.02); purchasing 2.95 (−0.01); trading volume low with sluggish downstream buying.**
  • SMM’s description: prices above 24,000 curbed downstream purchases, with **activity concentrated among traders; the East China discount narrowed as contract rollover approached.**

Interpretation

  • The methodological judgement this brief has carried — that the mechanism supports the basis and regional spreads more than it supports the absolute price — was **challenged for the first time on August 10; that challenge is partly withdrawn this period, because absolute price and basis improved together.**
  • But the size must be recorded faithfully: **the basis narrowed 20 yuan, and Foshan’s premium moved 40 to 50 — still short of 80.**
  • ⚑ The most informative single item is **East China purchasing at 2.86 → 3.20: it is the only index that measures buyer behaviour directly, and its recovery led the basis narrowing rather than following it.**
  • The East–Central divergence (purchasing 3.20 against 2.95) is the period’s core regional fact; **track East China first.**

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (17)

  • ⚑ **ALUNORTE CUT TO 50% OF CAPACITY: a 6.3 Mt/yr refinery, the largest outside China, on a CELBA gas disruption; $75–100 million Q3 impact, no restoration date; implied run-rate loss ≈ 3.15 Mt/yr, about 8,630 mt/day.**
  • AL2609 closed August 11 at **24,250, +215 (+0.89%), +85 on the close — a second consecutive higher close and a new rebound high.**
  • AL2610 closed 24,260 (+210); **all twelve listed contracts closed at or above 24,150.**
  • The night session **gapped above the day close for a second consecutive night, and this time on all three actives: +40 / +45 / +70; night high 24,365; the low of 24,270 sits 20 above the close, so the session never traded back to it.**
  • Night open-interest build: AL2609 **+2,605, AL2610 +4,702; whole-product night open interest 629,147 (+9,642) after 619,505 (+9,434) in the day.**
  • ⚑ **Spot followed this time: A00 Shanghai 24,100, +110; eight of nine regions up 100 to 130 (against 10 to 60 the day before); Changjiang 24,100 (+120).**
  • The basis narrowed: **East China −120 → −100, Central China −220 → −210, Foshan premium 40 → 50; SMM’s own Central China transaction discount narrowed from 120–160 to 120–140.**
  • East China purchasing sentiment **3.20 (+0.04), up 0.34 from 2.86 on August 6; shipment 3.16 (+0.01).**
  • LME rose for a **seventh consecutive session: cash $3,373.00 (+$45.50), three-month $3,374.00 (+$53.50).**
  • ⚑ **MA60 at $3,349.41 and the $3,350 core-range top were CLEARED — the single overhead reference this brief has carried; cash now $23.59 above MA60.**
  • LME stocks **253,400 mt, a thirty-first consecutive draw, described as lowest this century.**
  • TradingEconomics **raised its Q3 aluminum forecast to $3,400.00 from $3,309.69 and its 12-month to $3,604.43 from $3,507.82.**
  • The alumina curve rose across the board: **AO2610 2,727 (+37), AO2609 2,724 (+25), AO2701 2,778 (+37), with product open interest 527,875 (+6,568).**
  • Qatalum shut on a gas shortage; the Persian Gulf, ~10% of global production, hampered since March; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; overseas supply −980,000 mt in 2026; Alcoa’s alumina guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt.
  • China’s 45 Mt cap increasingly binding; **July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium 78.3% → 78.5% forecast, so deliverable-form metal keeps shrinking.**
  • Social inventory **917,000 mt on last week’s steepest-in-series −41,000 mt draw (carried); an SMM midday caliber puts mainstream-area inventory down 4,500 mt w/w with Guangdong and Wuxi destocking.**
  • Brent **$89.556, a fifth consecutive higher session; Hormuz unresolved with the fee-free window expiring around August 16; the US SPR at its lowest since 1983.**

Bearish factors (13)

  • ⚑ **AL2609’s open interest fell for a second consecutive session (−1,415) on a third consecutive decline in volume (151,302 → 132,277 → 131,151) — front-month participation keeps shrinking while the contract makes new rebound highs.**
  • The net build again sits in **AL2610 (+9,157 day, +4,702 night) while AL2608 shed 3,325; the AL2609-to-AL2610 gap narrowed from 46,556 lots to 33,887, and roll activity explains a substantial part.**
  • ⚑ **LME’s $7.00 backwardation lasted exactly one session and flipped back to a $1.00 contango; three-month rose $8.00 more than cash — the price signal for immediate tightness has gone.**
  • ⚑ **Alumina spot FELL on the day futures spiked: SMM index 2,692.52 (−3.66), Shandong −10, Henan −5, Shanxi −5, Guangxi −5; Australian FOB only +$1.**
  • The alumina move was a **closing-hour event: AO2610’s close sits 38 above its own settlement, and AO2609 shed 13,394 lots of open interest.**
  • The basis remains deeply negative: **East China −100, Central China −210; Foshan’s +50 is still far below this brief’s 80 marker.**
  • Tianjin added only 10 yuan against +100 to +130 elsewhere — **regional participation improved but is uneven.**
  • ⚑ **Fed pricing turned hawkish: September hike odds moved from 46%/40% to about 51% (TE) / 55% (FedWatch-implied); Hammack said several rate increases may be needed.**
  • The dollar index firmed to **99.828 after rebounding from a two-month low of 99.5.**
  • ⚑ **Hormuz headlines turned constructive: Pakistan’s defence minister says the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement,” and Iran and Oman are “very close” on a new routing model — de-escalation removes supply-risk premium.**
  • US crude inventories rose **9.1 million barrels, the largest weekly build since February.**
  • Demand readings unchanged and still weak: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling, July processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting, secondary 49.4%, billet processing fees pulled back, traditional off-season; **SMM states explicitly that prices above 24,000 curbed downstream purchases with activity concentrated among traders; Central China purchasing 2.95 (−0.01).**
  • ⊘ Data gaps: no social-inventory print on a Tuesday; SHFE warrants unretrievable (last 307,008 mt, August 7); the LME cancelled-warrant split six sessions stale; billet inventory 132,500 mt (+10,500 w/w) carried with billet outbound −6,000 w/w.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Yesterday’s falsifiable question was answered in the affirmative, and a larger one was written into the record on the same night. The answer first: **the basis began to close, and it closed in eight of nine regions at once — SMM A00 Shanghai +110 to 24,100, Wuxi +120, Hangzhou +120, Linyi +130, Chongqing and Shenyang +110, Central China and Foshan +100, against a front-month close that added only 85 to 90, so spot outpaced futures for the first time in this move; the East China basis narrowed from −120 to −100, Central China from −220 to −210, Foshan’s premium widened from 40 to 50, SMM’s own Central China transaction discount narrowed from 120–160 to 120–140, and East China purchasing sentiment printed 3.20 (+0.04), up 0.34 from 2.86 on August 6 — the only index that measures buyer behaviour directly, and its recovery led the basis rather than following it; LME cleared the single overhead reference this brief has carried for a week on the same day — cash $3,373.00 (+$45.50), three-month $3,374.00 (+$53.50), a seventh consecutive higher session, taking out both MA60 at $3,349.41 and the $3,350 core-range top, on stocks of 253,400 mt and a thirty-first consecutive draw; SHFE AL2609 closed 24,250 (+215, +0.89%), a second consecutive higher close and a new rebound high, and the night session gapped above the close for a second straight night with all three actives positive (+40 / +45 / +70), ran to 24,365, never traded back below the close with a low of 24,270, and added 2,605 lots. Three things must nonetheless be conceded directly: first, the $7.00 backwardation this brief called “the one LME datum positioning cannot explain” lasted exactly one session and flipped back to a $1.00 contango, with three-month rising $8.00 more than cash — the price of immediacy is gone and forward pricing has replaced it; second, alumina spot fell on the very day alumina futures spiked (SMM index 2,692.52, −3.66; Shandong −10, Henan −5, Shanxi −5, Guangxi −5), and the futures move was a closing-hour event — AO2610 closed 2,727, a full 38 above its own settlement of 2,689, while AO2609 shed 13,394 lots; third, AL2609’s open interest fell for a second consecutive session by 1,415 on a third consecutive decline in volume to 131,151, with the entire net build again in AL2610 (+9,157 day, +4,702 night). What ties all three together is the period’s central new event: Norsk Hydro announced on August 11 that Alunorte in Pará, Brazil — 6.3 Mt/yr and the largest alumina refinery outside China — has cut production to 50% of capacity after gas supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, disrupted natural gas availability, with a $75–100 million Q3 hit to Bauxite & Alumina and a restoration timeline of “as soon as gas availability normalizes,” meaning no date; half of 6.3 Mt is roughly 3.15 Mt annualized, about 8,630 mt/day, and stacked on Alcoa’s 200,000–300,000 mt cut of July 16 it is the second reduction to the global alumina balance inside a month; this is precisely the shape of a forward supply loss — it shows up first in the LME forward, then in an alumina closing print, and not yet in any spot price at all; beneath it, macro turned unfavourable on all three axes and aluminum rose anyway: September hike odds moved from 46%/40% to about 51%/55% after Hammack said several rate increases may be needed, the dollar recovered from a two-month low of 99.5 to 99.828, the Hormuz headlines turned constructive with Pakistan’s defence minister saying the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” and Iran and Oman “very close” on a new routing model, and US crude inventories built 9.1 million barrels — a new rebound high made against three adverse changes says the current pricing function is supply-led with macro carrying reduced weight (interpretation); the net widens from 14:10 to 17 bullish factors against 13, and the composition of the bull column has changed again: it is now carried by an identifiable physical supply event, by LME’s clearance of its own technical ceiling, and — for the first time in this move — by the Chinese spot market; today’s falsifiable question therefore lands on the one item that can settle the argument: does the SMM alumina index turn up from 2,692.52, and does the LME cash-to-three-month spread move back toward backwardation from a $1.00 contango? If Alunorte is real in the physical market, both must happen within a session or two; if futures hold their gains while alumina spot keeps drifting lower and the contango persists, then a 6.3 Mt refinery going to half rate has been priced entirely in paper — and a rally standing simultaneously on a forward supply loss, a shrinking front month and a hawkish Fed has a specific and identifiable way to fail.**

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  1. Whether the SMM alumina index turns up from 2,692.52 — the one item that can settle the argument: August 11 saw a closing-hour futures explosion (AO2610 closed 2,727, 38 above settlement) against **a spot index down 3.66 with Shandong −10, Henan −5, Shanxi −5 and Guangxi −5.** Watch today’s index and the Shandong quote: higher means Alunorte has entered physical pricing and the cost column can be upgraded from “stabilised” to “rising”; flat or lower means the repricing should be explicitly labelled **futures-only.** Watch alongside whether **Australian FOB extends beyond $347.**
  2. Whether the LME spread moves back from a $1.00 contango toward backwardation: August 10 was a **$7.00 backwardation; August 11 flipped to a $1.00 contango with three-month rising $8.00 more than cash.** Watch the cash-to-3M direction: a return to backwardation says Alunorte’s loss is reaching the prompt market; a widening contango says this rally is still **forward supply expectation only.** Watch alongside whether stocks post a thirty-second draw from 253,400 mt.
  3. Whether AL2609’s open interest stops falling — short-covering versus new longs is still unresolved: The day sessions have now posted **two consecutive declines (−684, −1,415) on three consecutive volume declines (151,302 → 132,277 → 131,151), while the night sessions posted two consecutive builds (+949, +2,605).** Watch today’s day-session direction and whether volume recovers above 150,000 lots: both improving would justify upgrading the move’s durability; another day-session decline puts the day-versus-night divergence into a third session and **the breakout’s strength should be discounted further.**
  4. Tonight’s US July CPI and the direction in which the two Fed calibers converge: The annual consensus agrees at **+3.4% headline (June 3.5%) and +2.5% core (June 2.6%); ⊘ the monthly calibers conflict (+0.2%/+0.1% versus +0.1%/+0.2%), so use the annual figures.** Current pricing: **TE about 51%, FedWatch-implied about 55%.** Watch the dollar (now **99.828), LME and the SHFE night session react together; if CPI prints hot and aluminum still does not retreat, the “supply-led pricing” call gains further confirmation.**
  5. The first test of 24,200 as support rather than resistance: AL2608’s close of 24,200 is exactly the top of SMM’s 23,200–24,200 forward band; the night low of 24,270 has not tested it. Watch whether the day session holds 24,200 on a **closing basis: above it, references are 24,320 (pre-open quote), 24,365 (AL2609 night high) and 24,380 (AL2610 night high), then the 24,500 round figure with nothing observed in between; below it, 24,180 (settlement), 24,100 (former range top) and 24,095 (August 11 low).**
  6. Whether the basis keeps narrowing, and whether Foshan’s premium returns to 80: August 11 gave **East China −100 (narrowed 20), Central China −210 (narrowed 10), Foshan premium 40 → 50.** Watch three things: whether East China narrows inside −80, **whether Foshan’s premium returns to 80, and whether Tianjin (+10) catches up.** Track alongside whether East China purchasing sentiment extends beyond 3.20 (2.86 on August 6) — this period it led the basis.
  7. Tomorrow’s Thursday social-inventory print (August 13), and the billet print with it: Last week’s Monday caliber gave the steepest draw in the series at **−41,000 mt (979,000 → 958,000 → 917,000); the Thursday series reads 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6).** Watch whether the acceleration holds; watch alongside **whether billet inventory turns down from 132,500 mt — last week it built 10,500 mt on outbound down 6,000, the one column moving against the ingot draw.**
  8. Hormuz’s three falsifiable nodes, plus follow-up disclosure on Alunorte: (1) whether the **fee-free transit window is extended or lapses around August 16; (2) whether the Iran–Oman “new routing model” becomes a written arrangement, and whether Trump’s counter-demand for reparations is withdrawn; (3) whether Brent extends a five-session run and holds $90 (now $89.556, against a 9.1-million-barrel US crude build).** Watch separately for **any Hydro disclosure of an Alunorte restart timeline or gas solution, and for any third-party quantification of what the cut does to the 2026 global alumina balance.**

Sources: Shanghai Futures Exchange official daily data file for August 11, 2026, kx20260811.dat (AL2608 open 24,100, high 24,210, low 24,075, close 24,200, settlement 24,140, change +195, volume 7,925 lots, open interest 18,755, −3,325; AL2609 open 24,180, high 24,260, low 24,095, close 24,250, settlement 24,180, change +215, volume 131,151 lots, open interest 239,444, −1,415; AL2610 open 24,200, high 24,275, low 24,115, close 24,260, settlement 24,200, change +210, volume 82,060 lots, open interest 203,460, +9,157; AL2611 close 24,225, +190, open interest 58,188, +2,550; AL2612 close 24,200, +185, open interest 51,368, +992; AL2701 close 24,190, +190, open interest 25,634, +909; AL2707 close 24,150, +130; aluminium product totals volume 256,186, open interest 619,505, +9,434; AO2609 open 2,692, high 2,727, low 2,670, close 2,724, settlement 2,693, change +25, volume 169,241, open interest 137,795, −13,394; AO2610 open 2,690, high 2,732, low 2,664, close 2,727, settlement 2,689, change +37, volume 149,893, open interest 231,910, +9,145; AO2611 close 2,747, +36, open interest 59,791, +3,484; AO2612 close 2,760, +33; AO2701 close 2,778, +37, open interest 69,864, +5,607; AO2707 close 2,866, +21; alumina product totals volume 380,921, open interest 527,875, +6,568; AD2609 close 23,485, +60, open interest 5,927, −126; AD2610 open 23,560, high 23,620, low 23,495, close 23,575, settlement 23,555, change +80, volume 7,956, open interest 19,531, +574; alloy product totals volume 13,450, open interest 26,840, +455); Shanghai Futures Exchange official data file for the August 12, 2026 trading day, kx20260812.dat, capturing the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 11 (AL2608 open 24,270, high 24,315, low 24,240, volume 670, open interest 18,310, −445; AL2609 open 24,290, high 24,365, low 24,270, volume 57,363, open interest 242,049, +2,605; AL2610 open 24,305, high 24,380, low 24,285, volume 31,381, open interest 208,162, +4,702; AL2611 open 24,300, open interest 58,910, +722; AL2612 open 24,255, open interest 51,693, +325; aluminium product totals volume 103,248, open interest 629,147, +9,642; AO2609 open 2,724, high 2,736, low 2,712, volume 69,168, open interest 133,921, −3,874; AO2610 open 2,725, high 2,741, low 2,704, volume 70,351, open interest 239,201, +7,291; alumina night totals volume 161,827, open interest 532,955, +5,080; AD2610 open 23,595, high 23,680, low 23,595, open interest 19,810, +279; the file carries no close, settlement or change fields because the August 12 trading day has not completed); SMM spot price table via hq.smm.cn (August 11 A00: Shanghai 24,090–24,110, average 24,100, +110; Central China 23,970–24,010, average 23,990, +100; Foshan 24,230–24,270, average 24,250, +100; Wuxi 24,070–24,090, average 24,080, +120; Hangzhou 24,130–24,150, average 24,140, +120; Chongqing 24,040–24,080, average 24,060, +110; Shenyang 23,990–24,010, average 24,000, +110; Tianjin 23,990–24,010, average 24,000, +10; Linyi 24,110–24,130, average 24,120, +130; live main-continuous quote 24,320, +140, +0.579%; live LME quote 3,364.50, +2.00); SMM alumina price page via hq.smm.cn (August 11 SMM alumina index 2,692.52, −3.66; Shandong 2,670–2,730, average 2,700, −10; Henan 2,700–2,770, average 2,735, −5; Shanxi 2,700–2,750, average 2,725, −5; Guangxi 2,590–2,650, average 2,620, −5; Guizhou 2,730–2,800, average 2,765, unchanged; Lianyungang 2,770–2,960, average 2,865, unchanged; Bayuquan 2,770–2,960, average 2,865, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB $347/mt, +$1); SMM aluminum spot midday commentary dated August 11, 2026 15:28, “SHFE Aluminum Stabilizes at Highs; East China Discount Narrows as Contract Rollover Nears” (SHFE 2608 running above 24,000 yuan/mt with transactions concentrated among traders and prices above 24,000 curbing downstream purchases; quoted spot premium 40 yuan/mt against the August contract and 20 against the August–October spread; East China shipment sentiment index 3.16, +0.01, and purchasing sentiment index 3.20, +0.04; Central China transaction prices centred on a discount of 120–140 yuan/mt against the SHFE August contract, shipment sentiment 3.06, +0.02, purchasing sentiment 2.95, −0.01, with low trading volume and sluggish downstream buying; aluminium ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas down 4,500 mt week-on-week with Guangdong and Wuxi destocking); cnal.com / 世铝网 market page (August 11 Changjiang 24,100, +120; Nanhai 24,560, +140; Guangdong Nanchu 24,270, +110; Shanghai SME 24,100, +120; LME three-month $3,362.50, +$27.50); Westmetall LME market data table (August 11 cash settlement $3,373.00 and three-month $3,374.00 on stocks of 253,400 mt; August 10 cash $3,327.50, three-month $3,320.50, stocks 254,900 mt; August 7 cash $3,279.50, three-month $3,280.00, stocks 256,400 mt; August 6 stocks 257,900 mt; August 5 stocks 259,400 mt; August 4 stocks 260,900 mt; August 3 stocks 262,650 mt; July 31 stocks 264,400 mt); TradingEconomics aluminum page ($3,360.55, +$24.30, +0.73%, previous close $3,336.25; month +6.49%, year +27.86%; Q3 forecast $3,400.00 and 12-month $3,604.43; commentary on near two-month highs amid constrained global supply, the Alunorte plant in Brazil — described as the world’s largest alumina plant outside of China — forced to cut operations to half capacity amid lack of natural gas from its supplier, Norsk Hydro’s Qatalum facility in Qatar shut on natural gas shortages following Iranian strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, the Persian Gulf region accounting for approximately 10% of global production and hampered since the March US–Iran escalation, and aluminium remaining below four-year peaks on weakening Chinese demand); Norsk Hydro press release via GlobeNewswire, MINING.COM, StockTitan, RTTNews, Recycling Today and Manila Times, dated August 11, 2026, “Alunorte reduces alumina production on natural gas supply disruptions” (Alunorte received communication from its supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, on disruptions to natural gas availability; contingency measures include purchasing spot gas volumes, requesting direct access to the Barcarena LNG receiving and regasification terminal, and temporarily reducing alumina production to 50 percent; the plant, in the northern state of Pará, has capacity to produce 6.3 million metric tons of alumina per year; the potential Q3 2026 impact for Bauxite & Alumina from reduced production and purchasing gas above the contract price could range from $75–100 million; Alunorte will begin ramping up to full production as soon as gas availability normalizes, with no specific date given; the company is pursuing long-term alternative gas supply while maintaining its contractual rights under the existing Gas Supply Agreement); Bloomberg headline coverage dated August 11, 2026 (“Aluminum Extends Rally After Brazilian Plant Cuts Output to 50%”; “Aluminum hits seven-week high as Hormuz impasse threatens supply”; “Pakistan Says Deal Is Close Even as Iran, US Harden Stances”); TradingEconomics US dollar page (99.828, +0.0052, +0.01%; month −1.39%, year +2.03%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76; commentary that the index held steady near 99.8 on Tuesday following a rebound from a two-month low of 99.5, with US Treasury intervention alongside Japan to support the yen providing temporary support; Cleveland Fed President Hammack indicating several rate increases may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target; markets pricing approximately 51% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September with a CPI report scheduled for Wednesday); CME FedWatch caliber via aggregated coverage (probability of no change from the current 350–375 basis point range at 45.1%, implying roughly 55% odds of an increase; September FOMC dated September 15–16); CNBC coverage of the July CPI release scheduled for Wednesday August 12 (economists expecting a 0.2% increase in headline CPI with the annual rate nudging down to 3.4%, and core CPI up 0.1% with an annual rate of 2.5%); TradingEconomics Brent crude page ($89.556, +$0.65, +0.73%; month +7.51%, year +36.46%; Q3 forecast $89.485; commentary that Brent held above $89 following five consecutive sessions of gains as participants weighed conflicting developments on US–Iran negotiations, Pakistan’s defence minister indicating the two nations were “close to some sort of arrangement” concerning the Strait of Hormuz, Iran–Oman talks advancing toward reopening, President Trump adopting a stricter position demanding Tehran provide reparations for deaths from attacks attributed to the Islamic Republic countering Iranian demands for war compensation, and US crude inventories surging 9.1 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since February); The Express Tribune, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN and Al Jazeera coverage dated August 8–11, 2026 (Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif saying the US and Iran were nearing “some sort of agreement,” with signals over the past two to three days showing the two sides on the verge of reaching an agreement in one form or another; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi describing Iran and Oman as “very close” on a new shipping route through the strait under which ships would enter through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters, defining a new model different from the 60-year-old practice, with reopening conditioned on US compensation; Pakistan Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visiting Tehran on August 11); SMM aluminum inventory series via hq.smm.cn/aluminum (August 10 917,000 mt; August 6 933,000 mt; August 3 958,000 mt; July 30 953,000 mt; July 27 979,000 mt; publication on Monday and Thursday, so no August 11 print exists and the next is August 13); carried unchanged from prior briefs: SMM billet social inventory 132,500 mt on August 10 against 123,500 on August 6 and 122,000 on August 3, with a conflicting SMM morning-meeting caliber of about 4,000 mt week-on-week; August 3–9 ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w, and billet outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 w/w; cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt draw; SHFE aluminium warrants 307,008 mt on August 7, −1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m; LME cancelled warrants 13,250 mt and live warrants 244,650 mt on the August 6 caliber; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w, and port bauxite 940,000 mt; industry average alumina full cost near 2,530; SHFE MA5 23,740, MA10 23,542, MA30 23,191.33, MA60 23,741 and MACD DIF 93.4473 / DEA −3.5285 on the August 6 caliber, with core range 23,500–24,100; SMM’s LME technical caliber MA5 $3,227.70, MA10 $3,199.45, MA30 $3,164.40, MA60 $3,349.41 with core range $3,200–3,350; SMM forward range 23,200–24,200 yuan; ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt with the import window closed at a loss of 800–827 yuan/mt and a secondary operating rate of 49.4%; domestic electrolytic aluminium average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt and average profit 6,719 yuan/mt on the August 4 caliber; China’s July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt and operating capacity 45.31 Mt with the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y and overseas supply expected down 980,000 mt in 2026; Alcoa’s 2026 alumina guidance cut to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt after Pinjarra instability compounded by Cyclone Narelle; Slovalco restarting in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end and EGA Al Taweelah at 89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2; Guinea’s record 114.8 Mt of H1 2026 bauxite exports, +15% y/y; downstream processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened; China July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected and PPI +3.5% against +3.8% expected; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; US July payrolls −23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000, unemployment 4.1%, average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y; OPEC+ core seven adding 188,000 bpd from September; the Hormuz fee-free window expiring around August 16 under the June 17 memorandum’s 60-day term; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983; East China sentiment selling 3.10 and purchasing 2.86 on August 6. Data calibers: all SHFE figures are taken from the exchange’s own daily files on the LAST-TRADE caliber; settlement prices are stated separately and the two are never netted; percentage changes for the August 11 session are computed as SHFE reports them, against the previous SETTLEMENT (24,035 for AL2609), while the comparison against the previous CLOSE of 24,165 is stated separately as +85; the night session recorded here is complete as to opens, ranges, volumes and open-interest changes but carries NO close or settlement, because the August 12 trading day has not finished; the +40 / +45 / +70 comparisons against day-session closes are arithmetic on confirmed figures, while the inference drawn about the day-versus-night divergence is interpretation; four LME calibers are carried without reconciliation — the official/Westmetall cash $3,373.00 and three-month $3,374.00, the TradingEconomics $3,360.55, the cnal three-month $3,362.50 and the live SMM $3,364.50; the $1.00 contango is computed on the official caliber only; the East China, Central China and Foshan basis figures of −100, −210 and +50 are COMPUTED from SMM regional averages against AL2608’s close of 24,200 and should not be treated as SMM’s published basis; SMM’s own quoted premium of 40 against the August contract is recorded separately and is not the same caliber; the Alunorte run-rate arithmetic of approximately 3.15 Mt/yr and 8,630 mt/day is this brief’s derivation from the stated 6.3 Mt/yr capacity and 50% reduction, not a figure published by Norsk Hydro; no restoration date for Alunorte has been announced and none is implied here; the SMM midday caliber describing mainstream-area inventory down 4,500 mt week-on-week is a different series from the Monday/Thursday social-inventory print and the two are not reconciled or netted; there is no August 11 China social-inventory print because SMM publishes Monday and Thursday; the 917,000 mt figure is the August 10 print carried forward, not a new observation; two aluminium billet inventory calibers conflict (+10,500 mt versus about 4,000 mt) and both are recorded; the SHFE warrant series, the LME stock series and the SMM social inventory series are three distinct calibers and are never netted or summed; SHFE aluminium warrants for August 11 were NOT retrievable and the August 7 figure is carried; the LME cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since August 6 and is six sessions stale; SHFE moving averages, MACD and the core range remain the August 6 caliber and are FIVE sessions stale; the SMM LME technical caliber is likewise stale; both are shown for reference only; two Fed pricing calibers conflict — approximately 51% September hike odds on TradingEconomics and approximately 55% implied by FedWatch’s 45.1% hold — and neither is adopted over the other, though both moved in the same hawkish direction; two US July CPI monthly consensus calibers conflict (+0.2% headline with +0.1% core, versus +0.1% headline with +0.2% core) while the annual figures of 3.4% and 2.5% agree across both; the dollar index figure of 99.828 and the Brent figure of $89.556 are live August 12 Asia-session calibers, not completed daily closes; the alumina main contract roll from AO2609 to AO2610 is complete on open interest and AO2610 is the tracking caliber; as of writing no Hormuz agreement has been signed, no fee mechanism has been announced, and no reopening of the Strait has been reported, and the constructive headlines recorded here are statements by a third-party mediator and one principal’s foreign minister rather than a concluded arrangement; this brief writes at 08:59 Beijing on August 12, before the SHFE day session opens, and contains no August 12 day-session price. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout; items marked ⊘ are unretrieved, stale or unreconciled and should be treated as unconfirmed.

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