Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

LME gives back its whole two-day advance to $3,307.50. SHFE spikes to 24,470 and fails, while spot flips to a premium.LME 两日涨幅尽数回吐至 3,307.50 美元;沪铝冲高至 24,470 后回落,现货转为升水。

Thursday, August 13, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Thursday August 13 (Asia), 09:20 Beijing, before the SHFE day session opens. The August 13 trading day began with the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on Wednesday August 12 and closed 01:00; that session is complete as to opens, ranges, volumes and open-interest changes but carries no close or settlement because the trading day has not finished. SHFE AUGUST 12 TRADING DAY, from the exchange's own daily file `kx20260812.dat` on the LAST-TRADE caliber, update stamp 20260812 15:32:19: AL2609 open 24,290, high 24,470, low 24,210, CLOSE 24,285, settlement 24,345, change +105 against the previous settlement of 24,180 (+0.43%) and +35 against the previous close of 24,250 (+0.14%); volume 168,542 lots, UP 37,391 from 131,151 on August 11 — the first increase in four sessions and the heaviest since 151,302 on August 7 — and open interest 241,339, UP 1,895, the first build in three sessions. AL2608: open 24,270, high 24,420, low 24,150, close 24,255, settlement 24,305, +115 on settlement and +55 on the close, volume 6,285, open interest 17,160 (−1,595). AL2610: open 24,305, high 24,490, low 24,220, close 24,290, settlement 24,360, +90 on settlement and +30 on the close, volume 104,622, open interest 214,500 (+11,040) — a fourth consecutive large build. AL2611 close 24,265, +85, open interest 60,562 (+2,374); AL2612 close 24,240, +75, open interest 51,331 (−37); AL2701 close 24,200, +70, open interest 26,528 (+894); AL2702 close 24,180, +50; AL2703 close 24,190, +65; AL2707 close 24,210, +60. Whole-product open interest 635,775, +16,270 — the largest single-session build of this rebound — on volume of 325,085. The AL2609-to-AL2610 open-interest gap narrowed further from 33,887 to 26,839. AL2609's close of 24,285 sits 185 BELOW its own high of 24,470 and 60 BELOW its own settlement of 24,345; AL2610's close of 24,290 sits 200 below its high of 24,490. NIGHT SESSION (opened 21:00 August 12, belongs to the August 13 trading day; file `kx20260813.dat`, update stamp 20260813 08:53:01): AL2609 open 24,300, high 24,335, low 24,190, volume 48,907, open interest 237,355 (−3,984); AL2608 open 24,245, high 24,245, low 24,150, volume 670, open interest 16,795 (−365); AL2610 open 24,250, high 24,340, low 24,190, volume 30,563, open interest 215,472 (+972); AL2611 open 24,260, open interest 60,518 (−44); AL2612 open 24,230, open interest 52,126 (+795). Whole-product night open interest 633,575, DOWN 2,200, on 91,185 lots against 103,248 the night before. Measured against their own day-session CLOSES the three actives opened +15, −40 and −10 — against +40 / +45 / +70 the previous night; measured against SETTLEMENTS, all three opened BELOW: −45, −110 and −60. AL2609's night LOW of 24,190 sits 95 BELOW its day close, the first break of the close in three nights. MOVING AVERAGES refreshed to an August 12 SMM caliber via the morning-meeting mirror, replacing the five-session-stale August 6 values: SHFE MA5 24,117, MA10 23,907.5, MA30 23,377.83, MA60 23,716.17, with the core range RAISED to 23,900–24,500; on those values the August 12 close of 24,285 sits +168 over MA5, +377.5 over MA10, +907.17 over MA30 and +568.83 (+2.40%) over MA60, and the session HIGH of 24,470 came within 30 of the band top at 24,500 before failing. LME technical caliber likewise refreshed: MA5 $3,319.80, MA10 $3,267.75, MA30 $3,192.80, with the core range RAISED to $3,350–3,420; the SMM MA60 of $3,349.41 is carried from the earlier caliber. ALUMINA, AUGUST 12: AO2609 open 2,724, high 2,736, low 2,707, close 2,714, settlement 2,719, +21 on settlement but −10 on the previous close of 2,724, volume 105,610, open interest 127,042 (−10,753); AO2610 open 2,725, high 2,741, low 2,704, close 2,711, settlement 2,715, +22 on settlement but −16 on the previous close of 2,727, volume 120,140, open interest 239,501 (+7,591); AO2611 close 2,733, +18, open interest 61,588 (+1,797); AO2612 close 2,746, +22; AO2701 close 2,766, +16, open interest 69,509 (−355); AO2705 close 2,823, +5; AO2707 close 2,859, +6. Alumina product totals volume 263,135, open interest 526,734, DOWN 1,141 — the first product-level decline in the sequence. Both front actives closed BELOW their August 11 closes, so the closing-hour spike of August 11 (AO2610 closing 2,727 against a settlement of 2,689) was given back the next session. Night session: AO2609 open 2,720, high 2,720, low 2,693, volume 35,466, open interest 120,121 (−6,921); AO2610 open 2,717, high 2,719, low 2,686, volume 69,288, open interest 255,280 (+15,779); AO2701 open 2,760, open interest 71,349 (+1,840); alumina night totals volume 124,412, open interest 537,936 (+11,202). AO2610's night LOW of 2,686 sits 25 below its day close. ALUMINA SPOT, AUGUST 12, UNCHANGED ACROSS EVERY REGION: SMM alumina index 2,692.88, +0.36 against 2,692.52; Shandong 2,700 (range 2,670–2,730), unchanged; Henan 2,735 (2,700–2,770), unchanged; Shanxi 2,725 (2,700–2,750), unchanged; Guangxi 2,620 (2,590–2,650), unchanged; Guizhou 2,765 (2,730–2,800), unchanged; Lianyungang 2,865 (2,770–2,960), unchanged; Bayuquan 2,865, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB $347/mt, unchanged. Industry average full cost near 2,530. LME, AUGUST 12, official/Westmetall caliber: CASH settlement $3,307.50, DOWN $65.50 from $3,373.00, and THREE-MONTH $3,308.50, DOWN $65.50 from $3,374.00, so the cash-to-3M spread held at a $1.00 CONTANGO, unchanged, with the whole curve falling in parallel; stocks 251,700 mt, −1,700, a thirty-second consecutive draw. The seven-session winning streak ends and the combined August 10 and August 11 advance is erased; cash now sits BELOW the August 10 settlement of $3,327.50 and above only the August 7 print of $3,279.50. Against the refreshed technical caliber, cash sits $12.30 BELOW MA5 at $3,319.80, $39.75 above MA10 at $3,267.75, $41.91 BELOW SMM's MA60 of $3,349.41 and $42.50 below the $3,350 floor of the newly raised $3,350–3,420 band. ⊘ Two further LME calibers are recorded without reconciliation: a TradingEconomics August 12 close of $3,341.85, −0.56%, and a live August 13 Asia quote of $3,306.75, −$53.80 (−1.60%) against a stated previous close of $3,360.55, with month +4.79% and year +26.66%; TradingEconomics CUT its Q3 forecast to $3,377.15 from $3,400.00 and its 12-month forecast to $3,580.89 from $3,604.43 in the same update — the first downward revision of these forecasts recorded in this brief. INVENTORY: LME aluminium stocks 251,700 mt on August 12, −1,700 d/d, a thirty-second consecutive draw, described in reporting as the lowest this century. The cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since the August 6 caliber (cancelled 13,250 mt, −10.17%; live 244,650 mt) and is now seven sessions stale ⊘. CHINA INGOT SOCIAL INVENTORY: no new print at the time of writing — SMM publishes Monday and Thursday, and TODAY, Thursday August 13, is a print day; the last figure stands at 917,000 mt (August 10, Monday caliber), −16,000 mt against Thursday August 6's 933,000 and −41,000 mt against Monday August 3's 958,000. The Monday series reads 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10); the Thursday series reads 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6) → today's print. ALUMINIUM BILLET: 132,500 mt on August 10, +10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber against a separate SMM caliber of about 4,000 mt, unreconciled ⊘; next print also today. OUTBOUND FLOWS, August 3–9, carried: ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w; billet outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 w/w. Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt weekly draw. CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY REGISTERED WARRANTS, AUGUST 12: 17,285 mt, +693 d/d, with Jiangsu +570 mt and Zhejiang +153 mt. SHFE aluminium warrants were not retrievable for August 12 ⊘; last confirmed 307,008 mt on August 7 (−1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m). National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w); port bauxite 940,000 mt. SPOT, AUGUST 12: SMM A00 aluminium ingot 24,370 yuan/mt (range 24,360–24,380), UP 270 (+1.12%) — the largest single-day gain in this sequence, against +110 on August 11 and a 10-to-60 band on August 10; Changjiang caliber 24,360, +260; an SME caliber 24,380, +280. ⊘ The full SMM nine-region table for August 12 was NOT retrievable at the time of writing, and neither were the East China and Central China shipment and purchasing sentiment indices; the August 11 values are carried (East China shipment 3.16, purchasing 3.20; Central China shipment 3.06, purchasing 2.95) and must be treated as one session stale. ⊘ A separate aggregator caliber carrying a Central China figure of 24,360 (+260) is not reconciled with SMM's own regional series and is recorded but not used. Nanhai 24,560 is the August 11 caliber, carried. COMPUTED BASIS: against AL2608's close of 24,255, SMM A00 at 24,370 implies a +115 PREMIUM, against a −100 discount on August 11 — a 215-yuan swing in one session and the first premium recorded in this brief's recent series; against AL2609's close of 24,285 the implied premium is +85. SMM's own August 12 South China daily review independently places spot transaction prices at a PREMIUM of 100–140 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2608 contract, with mainstream quotations at a DISCOUNT of −30 to −10 yuan/mt, and describes high absolute prices combined with high premiums prompting holders to rush to sell and cash out, deeply discounted cargoes flooding the market, offers with few actual deals, downstream users making only basic passive just-in-time purchases, and traders slowly entering to push for lower prices. SECONDARY: AD2610 August 12 open 23,595, high 23,750, low 23,595, close 23,645, settlement 23,670, +90 on settlement and +70 on the previous close of 23,575, volume 8,755, open interest 19,852 (+321); AD2609 close 23,575, +90 on settlement, open interest 5,758 (−169); alloy product totals volume 13,369, open interest 27,007 (+167); night session AD2610 open 23,615, high 23,685, LOW 23,365 — 280 below the day close — open interest 19,724 (−128), AD2609 low 23,300, alloy night open interest 26,688 (−319). ⊘ ADC12 described by SMM as edging up 50 yuan/mt on August 12 against a carried 24,200 yuan/mt August 6 level, so approximately 24,250, unreconciled; import window closed at a loss near 800–827 yuan/mt. ⊘ Two secondary operating-rate calibers now conflict: SMM's August 12 release puts the operating rate of China's secondary aluminium PRODUCERS at 34.6% in July, rebounding month-on-month but down year-on-year on a shortage of compliant aluminium scrap, against the 49.4% secondary aluminium figure carried in prior briefs; both are recorded. COST AND MARGIN, carried from an August 4 caliber: average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt, average profit 6,719 yuan/mt. MACRO: US JULY CPI LANDED IN LINE on August 12 — headline +0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y against June's 3.5%; core +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y against June's 2.6%, with core matching the slowest annual pace since March 2021; both annual figures fell 0.1 percentage point from June. FED PRICING TURNED DOVISH, calibers recorded without reconciliation ⊘: a CME FedWatch caliber taken 11:32 a.m. ET on August 12 puts the probability of a hold in the current 3.50–3.75% range near 62%, implying September hike odds near 38%, while a widely cited caliber puts the hike probability at 42% and another at roughly 40% — against approximately 51% on the TradingEconomics caliber and approximately 55% implied by FedWatch the day before. Bloomberg's August 12 framing is that bond traders kept a coin-toss wager on a September hike after the tame CPI. Next FOMC September 15–16. US dollar index 99.940 on the August 13 Asia caliber, −0.0268 (−0.03%) against a previous close of 99.97, month −0.97%, year +1.72%, Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76 — the dollar did NOT decline on the dovish print, and sits ABOVE the 99.828 recorded a day earlier. Carried: US July payrolls fell 23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000, unemployment 4.1%, average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y; China July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected and PPI +3.5% against +3.8% expected; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2. ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS: Brent $88.10 on the August 13 caliber, −$0.88 (−0.99%) against a previous close of $88.98, ENDING a six-session rally; month +3.97%, year +31.80%. October futures stood at $89.53 as of 08:00 GMT on August 12. THE HORMUZ DE-ESCALATION REVERSED ON AUGUST 12: Yemen's Houthis launched missile attacks on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, killing six people including two members of the vessel's security force, and US Central Command struck a Panama-flagged cargo vessel attempting to breach the Iranian port blockade. Iran maintains the Strait stays closed until the US meets its conditions including war reparations and sanctions removal. Transits through the Strait average roughly 7–9 million barrels per day against a pre-war 20 million. The IEA projects a 1.8 million bpd shortfall this quarter on Middle East tensions. US crude inventories rose 9.1 million barrels, the largest weekly build since February on one caliber and since early 2023 on another ⊘. The fee-free transit window under the June 17 memorandum still expires around August 16 — three days from today. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983. OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September. SUPPLY: the Alunorte item carried from August 11 is confirmed and corroborated by the equity market — Norsk Hydro's Alunorte in Pará, Brazil, capacity 6.3 Mt/yr and the largest alumina refinery outside China, has cut production to 50% of capacity after gas supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, disrupted natural gas availability, with an estimated Q3 2026 impact of $75–100 million on Bauxite & Alumina, contingency measures of spot gas purchases and a request for direct access to the Barcarena LNG terminal, and no restoration date beyond 'as soon as gas availability normalizes'; on August 12 NALCO shares rose about 8.8% to INR 422.20, Hindalco about 3.7% to INR 1,087.95, and Vedanta Aluminium also advanced, with reporting attributing the move to Alunorte and describing aluminium at a seven-week high. Analyst commentary carried alongside notes that alumina now prices at roughly 10% of the aluminium price against a 14–16% historical average, which is used to argue the Alunorte cut can support alumina. Also carried: Qatalum in Qatar shut on natural gas shortages following Iranian strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, with the Persian Gulf region — roughly 10% of global production — hampered since the March escalation; Alcoa cut 2026 alumina guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt. China's weekly electrolytic aluminium output basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion rising; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July, 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt, operating capacity 45.31 Mt; the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding. Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026. Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end, EGA Al Taweelah ongoing (89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2). Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y. DEMAND: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened in the traditional off-season. Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
LME GIVES IT ALL BACK Cash $3,307.50, −$65.50; 3M $3,308.50, −$65.50. Seven-session streak ends; Aug 10 + Aug 11 advance erased
The clearance lasted one day MA60 $3,349.41 ≈ $3,350 band top — cleared Aug 11, lost Aug 12. Cash now $41.91 BELOW it
No backwardation Spread held at a $1.00 CONTANGO, unchanged. Yesterday's second test also failed
ALUMINA SPOT TEST FAILS Index 2,692.88, +0.36. EVERY region unchanged; Australian FOB flat $347
Alumina futures give it back AO2610 close 2,711 vs prev close 2,727; AO2609 2,714 vs 2,724. Product OI −1,141
SHFE spikes and fails AL2609 high 24,470, AL2610 24,490 — at the 24,500 band top. Close 24,285, 185 below its own high
Closed below settlement Close 24,285 vs settlement 24,345 — 60 below. Still a third higher close: +105 settle, +35 close
BUT PARTICIPATION RETURNS AL2609 OI +1,895, first build in three. Volume 168,542, +37,391 — heaviest since Aug 7
Largest build of the rebound Whole-product OI 635,775, +16,270. AL2610 +11,040, a fourth straight build
A00 JUMPS 270 24,370 (24,360–24,380), +1.12% — the largest daily gain in the sequence
BASIS FLIPS TO PREMIUM −100 discount → +115 PREMIUM vs AL2608's 24,255. A 215-yuan swing in one session
SMM corroborates South China review: transactions at a premium of 100–140 vs SHFE 2608
But how it was made Holders 'rushed to sell and cash out', deeply discounted cargoes flooded, 'offers with few actual deals'
NIGHT SESSION TURNS AL2609 low 24,190 — 95 BELOW the day close, first break in three nights. Opens +15 / −40 / −10
All three below settlement −45 / −110 / −60. Whole-product night OI −2,200 after +9,642
LME stocks 251,700 mt, −1,700, a 32nd consecutive draw; still described as lowest this century
CPI LANDS IN LINE Headline +0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — slowest core since March 2021
HIKE ODDS CUT Sept hike ~42% (hold ~62%) from ~51% / ~55%. Macro turns friendly for the first time in two weeks
But the dollar didn't fall DXY 99.940 vs 99.828 the day before, −0.03% on the day
HORMUZ RE-ESCALATES Houthi missiles hit a vessel in Bab al-Mandeb, six killed; CENTCOM strikes a Panama-flagged ship
Yet Brent fell $88.10, −0.99%, ending a six-day rally. Transits 7–9 mb/d vs 20 pre-war; IEA sees a 1.8 mb/d Q3 shortfall
Alunorte corroborated NALCO +8.8% to INR 422.20, Hindalco +3.7% to INR 1,087.95. Alumina ~10% of Al price vs 14–16% average
TE cuts its forecasts Q3 $3,377.15 from $3,400.00; 12-month $3,580.89 from $3,604.43 — first downward revision recorded here
THURSDAY PRINT DUE TODAY Social inventory 917,000 mt (Aug 10). Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → today

一 · 行情表现

核心事实:创本轮新高后于区间上沿失守,收盘价低于自身结算价

  • AL2609(8月12日,上期所口径,最后成交价): 开 24,290,高 **24,470,低 24,210,收 24,285;结算 24,345。**
  • 涨跌:较前结算价 24,180 涨 105 元(+0.43%);较前收盘价 24,250 涨 35 元(+0.14%)——连续第三个交易日收高。
  • ⚑ **收盘价较自身高点低 185 元,且较自身结算价低 60 元。** 高点 24,470 距 SMM 新上调核心区间上沿 24,500 仅 30 元,测试后失守。
  • ⚑ **成交量 168,542 手,较前一日 131,151 手放量 37,391 手——四个交易日以来首次增加,且为 8月7日(151,302 手)以来最高。**
  • ⚑ **持仓 241,339 手,增加 1,895 手——三个交易日以来首次增仓。**

其余合约:品种合计创本轮单日最大增仓

  • AL2608:开 24,270,高 24,420,低 24,150,收 24,255(较结算价 +115、较前收盘价 +55);结算 24,305;成交 6,285 手,持仓 17,160(−1,595)。
  • AL2610:开 24,305,高 **24,490,低 24,220,收 24,290(较结算价 +90、较前收盘价 +30);结算 24,360;成交 104,622 手,持仓 214,500 手(+11,040)——连续第四个交易日大幅增仓。**
  • AL2611 收 24,265(+85),持仓 60,562(+2,374);AL2612 收 24,240(+75),持仓 51,331(−37);AL2701 收 24,200(+70),持仓 26,528(+894);AL2707 收 24,210(+60)。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓 **635,775 手,增加 16,270 手——本轮反弹单日最大增仓;成交 325,085 手。**
  • AL2609 与 AL2610 持仓差由 33,887 手进一步收窄至 **26,839 手。**

⚑ 夜盘转向:三夜以来首次跌破日盘收盘价

  • AL2609:开 **24,300,高 24,335,低 24,190;成交 48,907 手,持仓 237,355 手(−3,984)。**
  • AL2610:开 **24,250,高 24,340,低 24,190;成交 30,563 手,持仓 215,472(+972)。**
  • AL2608:开 24,245,高 24,245(开盘即为最高),低 24,150;持仓 16,795(−365)。
  • AL2611 开 24,260(持仓 −44);AL2612 开 24,230(持仓 +795)。
  • ⚑ 品种合计夜盘持仓 **633,575 手,减少 2,200 手(前一夜为 +9,642),成交 91,185 手(前一夜 103,248 手)。**
  • 对各自日盘收盘价:+15 / −40 / −10(前一夜为 +40 / +45 / +70)。 对各自结算价:−45 / −110 / −60,三者全部为负。
  • ⚑ **AL2609 夜盘最低 24,190,较日盘收盘价低 95 元——连续三夜未破收盘价的形态结束。** 序列:上周五 −35/−30/−20 → 周一 +15/+20/−10 → 周二 +40/+45/+70 → 周三 +15/−40/−10。

⚑ 伦铝:七连涨终结,一日回吐两日涨幅

  • 官方 / Westmetall 口径(8月12日):现货结算 3,307.50 美元,跌 65.50 美元;三个月 3,308.50 美元,同样跌 65.50 美元。
  • ⚑ **8月11日刚攻克的 MA60 3,349.41 美元与 3,350 美元区间上沿,于 8月12日全部失守——突破仅维持一个交易日;现货现低于 MA60 达 41.91 美元。**
  • ⚑ **现货对三个月价差维持 1.00 美元贴水(contango)不变——整条曲线平行下移,并未回归升水。** 昨日第二项检验同样证伪。
  • 库存 **251,700 吨,日减 1,700 吨,连续第 32 个交易日下降。**
  • 技术口径已刷新至 8月12日:MA5 3,319.80、MA10 3,267.75、MA30 3,192.80,核心区间上调至 3,350–3,420 美元;现货低于 MA5 12.30 美元、低于区间下沿 42.50 美元,仅高于 MA10 39.75 美元。
  • ⊘ 另两个口径并列不作调和:TE 8月12日收 3,341.85 美元(−0.56%);8月13日亚洲盘实时 3,306.75 美元(−53.80,−1.60%)。 ⚑ **TE 同时下调预测:三季度由 3,400.00 降至 3,377.15 美元,十二个月由 3,604.43 降至 3,580.89 美元——本简报记录到的首次下调。**

解读

  • ⚑ 本期盘面的唯一改善项是参与度:日盘持仓由减转增(+1,895)、成交由缩转放(+37,391 手),本简报连续三期提出的“减仓缩量创新高”质疑,就 8月12日日盘而言应予撤回。
  • 但取而代之的质疑落在 K 线形态上:在周内最大成交量上创出周期新高、于区间上沿被拒、并收于自身结算价之下——这是派发形态(此为解读)。
  • 夜盘的读数与之一致且更直接:开盘全部低于结算价、最低价跌破日盘收盘价 95 元、品种持仓由 +9,642 转为 −2,200。
  • 均线口径本期刷新(8月12日):收盘高于 MA5 168 元、MA10 377.5 元、MA30 907.17 元、MA60 568.83 元(+2.40%);核心区间上调至 23,900–24,500,上方参考位首次出现且已被测试:24,500。
  • 伦铝方面,昨日的“支撑”一日之内重新变回阻力;下方在观测数据内的下一参考位为 8月7日的 3,279.50 美元。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:单日最大涨幅,基差由贴水翻转为升水

  • SMM A00 铝锭(8月12日):24,370 元/吨(区间 24,360–24,380),涨 270 元(+1.12%)——本轮序列单日最大涨幅(8月11日 +110,8月10日仅 +10 至 +60)。
  • 长江口径 **24,360,+260;另一 SME 口径 24,380(+280)。**
  • ⚑ **推算基差(对 AL2608 收盘价 24,255):+115 元升水——由 8月11日的 −100 元贴水翻转,单日摆幅 215 元,为本简报近期序列中首次出现升水。** 对 AL2609 收盘价 24,285 则为 +85 元。
  • ⚑ **SMM 自身华南日评独立印证:现货成交较 SHFE 2608 合约升水 100–140 元;但主流报价为 −30 至 −10 元的贴水。**
  • ⊘ **8月12日 SMM 九区域完整报价表未取得;⊘ 另有聚合口径给出华中 24,360(+260),与 SMM 区域序列不符,记录但不采用;南海 24,560 为 8月11日口径延续。**

⚑ 氧化铝:现货全区域零变动,期货吐回尾盘涨幅

  • ⚑ **SMM 氧化铝指数 2,692.88,涨 0.36 元;山东 2,700、河南 2,735、山西 2,725、广西 2,620、贵州 2,765、连云港 2,865、鲅鱼圈 2,865——全部零变动;澳洲 FOB 347 美元,持平。**
  • AO2610(8月12日):开 2,725、高 2,741、低 2,704,收 2,711;结算 2,715;较结算价 +22,但较前收盘价 2,727 跌 16 元;成交 120,140 手,持仓 239,501(+7,591)。
  • AO2609:开 2,724、高 2,736、低 2,707,收 2,714;结算 2,719;较结算价 +21,但较前收盘价 2,724 跌 10 元;成交 105,610 手,持仓 **127,042 手(−10,753)。**
  • AO2611 收 2,733(+18),持仓 61,588(+1,797);AO2612 收 2,746(+22);AO2701 收 2,766(+16),持仓 69,509(−355);AO2707 收 2,859(+6)。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓 **526,734 手,减少 1,141 手——本序列首次品种级减仓;成交 263,135 手。**
  • 夜盘:AO2609 开 2,720、高 2,720、低 2,693,持仓 120,121(−6,921);AO2610 开 2,717、高 2,719、低 2,686,持仓 **255,280(+15,779);品种合计夜盘持仓 537,936(+11,202)。**
  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨。

铝合金与其他

  • AD2610(8月12日):开 23,595、高 23,750、低 23,595,收 23,645;结算 23,670;较结算价 +90、较前收盘价 +70;成交 8,755 手,持仓 19,852(+321)。 AD2609 收 23,575;品种合计持仓 27,007(+167)。
  • ⚑ 夜盘 AD2610 开 23,615、高 23,685、低 23,365(较日盘收盘价低 280 元);AD2609 最低 23,300;品种合计夜盘持仓 26,688(−319)。
  • 8月12日铸造铝合金注册仓单 **17,285 吨,日增 693 吨(江苏 +570、浙江 +153)。**
  • ⊘ ADC12:SMM 称 8月12日上涨 50 元/吨,对应约 24,250 元(8月6日口径 24,200 延续),不作调和;进口亏损约 800–827 元/吨。
  • 原油:Brent **88.10 美元,跌 0.88 美元(−0.99%),前收盘 88.98 美元,六连涨终结;月 +3.97%、年 +31.80%。**
  • 美元指数 **99.940,−0.0268(−0.03%),前收盘 99.97;较前一日的 99.828 反而上行。**

解读:基差翻转是真实的价格,但不是买方造成的

  • 本期幅度对称性再度改变:期货收盘仅涨 30–55 元,而现货涨 270 元——现货涨幅远超期货,基差因而由 −100 直接翻转至 +115。
  • 但形成机制必须如实记录:SMM 华南日评明确描述高价叠加高升水促使持货商急于出货套现、深贴水货源涌现、有价无市、下游仅被动刚需采购、贸易商缓慢入场压价。
  • ⚑ 因此正确表述是:基差确已翻转,且该翻转作为价格是真实的;但推动它的是卖方与定价时点,而非买方(此为解读)。 SMM A00 的报价时点在 10:30 前后,恰值期货冲向 24,470 之际。
  • 氧化铝一栏的两项事实互相印证且方向一致:现货全区域零变动,期货两个主力均收于前收盘价之下,品种持仓首次转减。 本简报昨日将 8月11日的上涨标注为“尾盘事件而非全时段重定价”——次日证据支持该标注。

三 · 库存

中国:今日为周四印记日,写稿时尚未发布

  • ⚑ **今日(8月13日,周四)为 SMM 社会库存发布日;写稿时(09:20 北京)尚无新数据。**
  • 最后印记维持 **91.7 万吨(8月10日周一口径):较 8月6日(周四)93.3 万吨减 1.6 万吨,较 8月3日(周一)95.8 万吨减 4.1 万吨。**
  • 周一序列:97.9(7月27日)→ 95.8(8月3日)→ 91.7 万吨(8月10日)。 周四序列:95.3(7月30日)→ 93.3 万吨(8月6日)→ **今日。**
  • ⊘ 铝棒社会库存 **13.25 万吨(8月10日),周一口径周增 1.05 万吨(另一口径约 4,000 吨,冲突);下一印记同为今日。**

LME 与其他

  • LME 库存 **251,700 吨(8月12日),日减 1,700 吨,连续第 32 个交易日下降;报道称为本世纪最低。**
  • ⊘ 注销 / 可用仓单结构自 8月6日起未刷新(注销 13,250 吨、可用 244,650 吨),已滞后七个交易日。
  • ⊘ 上期所铝仓单 8月12日数值未取得;最后确认值 **307,008 吨(8月7日)。**
  • 出库量(8月3日–9日,延续):铝锭 12.42 万吨(周增 0.77 万吨);铝棒 2.75 万吨(周减 0.6 万吨)。
  • 铸造铝合金锭社会库存 2.4 万吨,连续第十周去库 200 吨;全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨;港口铝土矿 94 万吨。

解读

  • 本节本期仍为延续性利多,但其重要性在本期上升:在伦铝技术位失守、氧化铝现货拒绝确认之后,去库是多头栏中唯一未被质疑的支柱(此为解读)。
  • LME 连续 32 日去库与曲线平行下移 65.50 美元同时成立:总量继续减少,但价格未予定价——这与 8月11日“升水消失”属同一类观察。
  • ⚑ 今日周四印记因此成为本期权重最高的单项数据:上期周一口径周减 4.1 万吨为序列最陡,周四印记将回答“加速是否延续”。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美国 7 月 CPI:符合预期,加息定价转鸽

  • 公布日期:2026年8月12日。
  • 整体:环比 +0.1%、同比 +3.4%(6 月 3.5%)。 核心:环比 +0.2%、同比 +2.5%(6 月 2.6%)。 两项同比均较 6 月回落 0.1 个百分点。
  • ⚑ **核心同比 2.5% 追平 2021 年 3 月以来最慢。**
  • ⊘ 加息概率并列记录:CME FedWatch(8月12日 11:32 美东)按兵不动约 62%,隐含加息约 38%;另一广泛引用口径为加息 42%;另一口径约 40%。 前一日为 TE 约 51%、FedWatch 隐含约 55%。
  • 彭博 8月12日框架:债券交易员在温和 CPI 后仍维持“五五开”的 9 月加息押注。
  • 下次 FOMC:9月15–16日;当前区间 3.50–3.75%。

⚑ 但美元未跌

  • 美元指数 **99.940,−0.0268(−0.03%),前收盘 99.97;较 8月12日的 99.828 反而上行;月 −0.97%、年 +1.72%;三季度预测 99.275、十二个月 97.76。**

⚑ 霍尔木兹:缓和交易在二十四小时内反转

  • 8月11–12日:也门胡塞武装对曼德海峡一艘商船发动导弹袭击,造成 6 人死亡,其中 2 人为船上安保人员。
  • 同期:美国中央司令部打击一艘试图突破对伊朗港口封锁的巴拿马籍货轮。
  • 伊朗立场:在美方满足包括战争赔偿与解除制裁在内的条件之前,海峡维持关闭。
  • 通行量:当前约 700–900 万桶/日,战前为约 2,000 万桶/日。 IEA 预计本季度供应缺口 **180 万桶/日。**
  • ⚑ **免费通行窗口仍于 8月16日前后到期——距今三天。**
  • 但 Brent 仍下跌:88.10 美元(−0.99%),六连涨终结;美国原油库存增加 910 万桶(⊘ 一口径称为 2 月以来最大,另一口径称为 2023 年初以来最大)。

中国(延续)

  • 7 月 CPI +0.5%(预期 +0.8%)、PPI +3.5%(预期 +3.8%);7 月出口同比 +23%,顺差 1,125 亿美元;NBS 与财新 7 月制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期宏观栏的判定应由上期的利空改为边际利多:通胀符合预期、加息概率由约 51%/55% 降至约 42%,这是两周以来宏观首次转向有利。
  • ⚑ 而这正构成对本简报昨日判断的反向确认:昨日的观察是“三条宏观不利变化之下铝价仍创新高,说明定价由供应侧主导”;今日的镜像是“宏观转鸽而伦铝下跌 65.50 美元”。 两次观察指向同一结论(此为解读)。
  • 两条复杂化因素须并列:其一,美元并未因鸽派 CPI 下跌,反而由 99.828 升至 99.940;其二,地缘栏在二十四小时内由缓和反转为升级,而本简报昨日刚因缓和信号将其部分下调——该下调本期须再次撤回。

五 · 基本面

Alunorte:事件确认,并获得股票市场的独立印证

  • 延续事实:挪威海德鲁 8月11日公告,巴西帕拉州 Alunorte(产能 630 万吨/年,中国以外最大氧化铝精炼厂)因供气方 CELBA(New Fortress Group 旗下)断气,产量削减至 50%;三季度影响 7,500 万–1 亿美元;措施为采购现货气源并申请直接接入 Barcarena LNG 终端;无恢复时间表。
  • ⚑ **8月12日股票市场印证:印度国家铝业 NALCO 涨约 8.8% 至 422.20 卢比、印度铝业 Hindalco 涨约 3.7% 至 1,087.95 卢比、韦丹塔铝业同步上涨;报道称铝价处于七周高位。**
  • ⚑ **分析口径:氧化铝价格当前约为铝价的 10%,而历史均值为 14%–16%——该比值被用于论证 Alunorte 减产可支撑氧化铝(此为第三方观点,非本简报判断)。**
  • 本简报推算(延续):630 万吨 × 50% ≈ 折年 **315 万吨,约 8,630 吨/日。**

⚑ 但连续第二个交易日,中国氧化铝现货拒绝为其定价

  • 8月11日:指数 2,692.52,跌 3.66 元。 8月12日:指数 2,692.88,涨 0.36 元,且全部区域零变动。
  • 澳洲 FOB 连续两日为 347 美元(8月11日 +1,8月12日持平)。
  • ⚑ 期货侧亦未延续:AO2610 与 AO2609 均收于前收盘价之下,品种持仓首次转减(−1,141)。

其余供应与需求(延续)

  • 海德鲁 Qatalum(卡塔尔)因断气停产;波斯湾约占全球产量 10%;7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%;预计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨;美铝氧化铝指引下调 20–30 万吨。
  • 国内:7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%,铸锭产量同比 −15.1%;铝水比例 7 月 78.3%、8 月预计 78.5%;建成产能约 4,629 万吨、运行产能 4,531 万吨;4,500 万吨天花板约束性增强。
  • 复产:Slovalco 四季度、密苏里年底、EGA Al Taweelah 持续(89/1,262 槽);几内亚上半年铝土矿出口 1.148 亿吨(+15%)。
  • 需求:加工开工率 **60.1% 且下行;7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个板块全部收缩;铝棒加工费回落;传统淡季;光伏组件排产 7 月 38.5 GW → 8 月 39.3 GW。**
  • ⊘ **再生铝开工率两个口径冲突:SMM 8月12日发布称 7 月中国再生铝生产企业开工率 34.6%(环比回升、同比下降,受合规废铝短缺制约),与此前延续的 49.4% 并列记录,不作调和。**
  • 成本与利润(8月4日口径,延续):平均完全成本 16,252 元/吨,平均利润 6,719 元/吨。

解读

  • ⚑ **供应事件本身未被削弱,被削弱的是它的传导证据:Alunorte 在股票市场被定价、在伦铝三个月被定价过一天、但连续两个交易日未在中国氧化铝现货被定价(此为解读)。**
  • 因此本简报维持昨日的分栏方式:该项应记入成本地板的前瞻栏,而非当期栏;并须补充一条——该栏的确认窗口已用去两个交易日。
  • 需求侧本期无新增改善读数,且再生铝的两个口径冲突使该栏的可读性下降。

六 · 原铝现货市场

8月12日:价格与升贴水

  • SMM A00 **24,370 元/吨(24,360–24,380),+270 元(+1.12%);长江 24,360,+260;SME 口径 24,380(+280)。**
  • ⚑ **推算基差:对 AL2608 收盘 24,255 为 +115 元升水(8月11日为 −100 元贴水);对 AL2609 收盘 24,285 为 +85 元。**
  • ⚑ **SMM 华南日评(8月12日):成交价较 SHFE 2608 升水 100–140 元;主流报价贴水 −30 至 −10 元。**
  • ⊘ 九区域完整表、佛山与华中单独报价、以及出货/采购意愿指数,8月12日均未取得;8月11日值延续并须视为滞后一个交易日(华东出货 3.16、采购 3.20;华中出货 3.06、采购 2.95)。

⚑ SMM 对成交状况的描述(8月12日,华南)

  • “高绝对价格叠加高升水促使持货商急于出货套现”。
  • “深贴水货源涌现,贴水扩大的趋势难以遏制”。
  • “有价无市”;“下游仅维持基本的被动刚需采购”;“贸易商缓慢入场压价”。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期须做一处明确区分:基差翻转为升水,这是一条真实的价格事实;但它并非由买方推动。
  • 支持该区分的三条证据:其一,SMM 自身描述为持货商抛售;其二,主流报价仍为 −30 至 −10 元贴水;其三,SMM A00 定价时点约在 10:30,恰值期货冲高至 24,470 之际(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 因此本期无法沿用昨日的方法论结论——昨日“采购意愿指数领先于基差”的判断,在本期缺少该指数的情况下无法验证;⊘ 该缺口是本期最重要的数据缺口。
  • 可操作的推论只有一条:若今日 A00 在期货回落至 24,200–24,300 区间时仍能维持升水,则该翻转属需求;若迅速回落至 −100 附近,则属定价时点与卖方行为的合成(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(15 项)

  • ⚑ **SMM A00 涨 270 元至 24,370,为本轮序列单日最大涨幅;基差由 −100 元贴水翻转为 +115 元升水,单日摆幅 215 元。**
  • ⚑ **SMM 华南日评独立印证:成交较 SHFE 2608 升水 100–140 元。**
  • ⚑ **AL2609 持仓增加 1,895 手,三日以来首次增仓;成交 168,542 手,放量 37,391 手,为 8月7日以来最高——参与度收缩的质疑就日盘而言应予撤回。**
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓 **635,775 手(+16,270),为本轮反弹单日最大增仓;AL2610 +11,040 手,连续第四日大幅增仓。**
  • AL2609 创周期新高 **24,470、AL2610 创 24,490;连续第三个交易日收高(较结算价 +105)。**
  • LME 库存 **251,700 吨,连续第 32 个交易日下降,报道称为本世纪最低。**
  • ⚑ **美国 7 月 CPI 符合预期:整体同比 3.4%、核心同比 2.5%,核心追平 2021 年 3 月以来最慢。**
  • ⚑ **9 月加息概率由约 51%/55% 降至约 42%(按兵不动约 62%)——宏观两周以来首次转向有利。**
  • ⚑ **Alunorte 获股票市场印证:NALCO +8.8%(422.20 卢比)、Hindalco +3.7%(1,087.95 卢比)、韦丹塔上涨;报道称铝价处七周高位。**
  • 第三方口径:氧化铝仅为铝价的约 10%,低于 14%–16% 的历史均值。
  • ⚑ **霍尔木兹缓和交易反转:胡塞导弹袭击曼德海峡商船致 6 人死亡;美军打击巴拿马籍货轮;通行量 700–900 万桶/日 vs 战前 2,000 万;IEA 预计本季缺口 180 万桶/日;免费窗口 8月16日到期(三天后)。**
  • 氧化铝夜盘大幅增仓:AO2610 +15,779 手,品种合计 +11,202 手。
  • 铸造铝合金:AD2610 收 23,645(较前收盘价 +70);注册仓单 17,285 吨(+693)。
  • 供应侧延续:Qatalum 停产;波斯湾约占全球 10%;7 月中国以外产量同比 −6.7%;2026 年海外供应预计减少 98 万吨;美铝指引下调 20–30 万吨。
  • 国内可交割形态收缩延续:铸锭产量同比 −15.1%;铝水比例 78.3% → 8 月预计 78.5%;4,500 万吨天花板约束性增强。

利空因素(16 项)

  • ⚑ **伦铝现货与三个月同跌 65.50 美元至 3,307.50 / 3,308.50 美元,七连涨终结,一日回吐 8月10日与 8月11日全部涨幅。**
  • ⚑ **MA60 3,349.41 美元与 3,350 美元区间上沿的突破仅维持一个交易日;现货现低于 MA60 41.91 美元、低于新区间下沿 42.50 美元、低于 MA5 12.30 美元。**
  • ⚑ **现货对三个月维持 1.00 美元贴水不变,未回归升水——昨日第二项检验证伪。**
  • ⚑ **TE 下调预测:三季度 3,400.00 → 3,377.15 美元;十二个月 3,604.43 → 3,580.89 美元——本简报记录到的首次下调。**
  • ⚑ **氧化铝现货指数 2,692.88,仅涨 0.36 元,且全部区域零变动、澳洲 FOB 持平 347 美元——昨日第一项检验实质证伪。**
  • ⚑ **氧化铝期货吐回尾盘涨幅:AO2610 收 2,711(前收盘 2,727)、AO2609 收 2,714(前收盘 2,724);品种持仓首次转减(−1,141);AO2609 减仓 10,753 手。**
  • ⚑ **沪铝于区间上沿失守:高点 24,470 / 24,490 距 24,500 仅 30 / 10 元;收盘较自身高点低 185 / 200 元,且AL2609 收盘低于自身结算价 60 元。**
  • ⚑ **夜盘转向:AL2609 最低 24,190,较日盘收盘价低 95 元,三夜以来首次跌破收盘价。**
  • ⚑ **夜盘三主力全部低开于各自结算价(−45 / −110 / −60);对收盘价为 +15 / −40 / −10。**
  • ⚑ **夜盘品种持仓减少 2,200 手(前一夜 +9,642);夜盘成交由 103,248 手降至 91,185 手。**
  • ⚑ **升水的形成机制不利:SMM 描述持货商急于出货套现、深贴水货源涌现、有价无市、下游仅被动刚需采购、贸易商压价;主流报价仍为 −30 至 −10 元贴水。**
  • ⚑ **美元未因鸽派 CPI 下跌:由 99.828 升至 99.940。**
  • Brent **六连涨终结,收 88.10 美元(−0.99%);美国原油库存增加 910 万桶。**
  • 需求侧读数未变且仍弱:加工开工率 60.1% 且下行、加工 PMI 42.2(七板块全收缩)、铝棒加工费回落、传统淡季;⊘ 再生铝开工率两口径冲突(34.6%** 对 49.4%),且 SMM 归因于合规废铝短缺。**
  • 铸造铝合金夜盘急挫:AD2610 最低 23,365,较日盘收盘价低 280 元;AD2609 最低 23,300;品种夜盘减仓 319 手。
  • ⊘ 本期数据缺口为近期最大:8月12日 SMM 九区域表未取得、出货/采购意愿指数未取得(该指标为本简报上期的核心论据)、周四社会库存与铝棒印记写稿时未发布、上期所仓单未取得(最后 30.7008 万吨,8月7日)、LME 注销仓单结构滞后七个交易日、ADC12 与铝棒库存口径冲突。

八 · 一句话观点

昨日本简报设定的两项可证伪检验全部证伪,而这恰恰发生在宏观栏两周以来首次转向有利的同一天。 第一项检验的答案是:SMM 氧化铝指数 2,692.88,较 2,692.52 涨 0.36 元,而山东、河南、山西、广西、贵州、连云港、鲅鱼圈七地报价全部零变动,澳洲 FOB 持平 347 美元——在所有底层报价均无变动的情况下,指数 0.36 元的变动不构成“转涨”;更不利的是,做出重定价的氧化铝期货把涨幅吐了回去:AO2610 收 2,711(前收盘 2,727)、AO2609 收 2,714(前收盘 2,724),两个主力均收于前收盘价之下,品种持仓首次转减 1,141 手——本简报昨日将 8月11日的上涨标注为“尾盘事件而非全时段重定价”,次日证据支持了该标注;第二项检验的证伪更为剧烈:伦铝现货结算 3,307.50 美元、三个月 3,308.50 美元,双双下跌 65.50 美元,终结七连涨,并在一个交易日内抹去 8月10日与 8月11日的全部涨幅;现货对三个月并未回归升水,而是维持 1.00 美元贴水不变——因为整条曲线平行下移;本简报连续一周单列为唯一上方参考位的 MA60 3,349.41 美元与 3,350 美元区间上沿,8月11日攻克、8月12日即失守,突破仅维持一个交易日,现货现低于 MA60 41.91 美元、低于 SMM 新上调区间 3,350–3,420 美元下沿 42.50 美元;TE 亦同步下调三季度预测至 3,377.15 美元、十二个月至 3,580.89 美元,为本简报记录到的首次下调。与之相对,有一项检验通过了,且正是本简报连续三期未得答案的那一项:AL2609 持仓在连续两日减少后增加 1,895 手,成交量 168,542 手、单日放量 37,391 手、为 8月7日以来最高;品种合计持仓增加 16,270 手,为本轮反弹单日最大增仓;AL2610 增仓 11,040 手为连续第四日——“减仓缩量创新高”的质疑,就 8月12日日盘而言应予撤回;但取而代之的质疑落在 K 线形态上:AL2609 创周期新高 24,470、AL2610 创 24,490,距 SMM 新上调核心区间上沿 24,500 仅 30 元与 10 元,随后于该位被拒,收 24,285 与 24,290,较自身高点低 185 元与 200 元,且 AL2609 收盘低于自身结算价 24,345 达 60 元;夜盘以同一方式读出了它:AL2609 开 24,300 但下探 24,190,较日盘收盘价低 95 元,为三夜以来首次跌破收盘价;三个主力全部低开于各自结算价(−45 / −110 / −60);品种持仓由 +9,642 转为 −2,200,成交由 103,248 手降至 91,185 手;现货一栏则走得比本简报要求的更远,但其形成机制必须如实记录:SMM A00 涨 270 元至 24,370,为本轮序列单日最大涨幅;对 AL2608 收盘价 24,255,华东基差由 −100 元贴水翻转为 +115 元升水,单日摆幅 215 元,并获 SMM 华南日评“成交较 2608 升水 100–140 元”的独立印证;然而同一篇日评明确描述:高绝对价格叠加高升水促使持货商急于出货套现,深贴水货源涌现,主流报价仍为 −30 至 −10 元贴水,有价无市,下游仅维持基本的被动刚需采购,贸易商缓慢入场压价——一个由 10:30 定价时点(彼时期货正冲向 24,470)叠加持货商抛售所构成的升水,是时点效应与供给反应,而不是买盘(此为解读);而唯一能直接测量买方的出货/采购意愿指数,本期恰恰未取得,这是本期最重要的数据缺口;宏观则两周以来首次转向有利,而伦铝照跌不误:美国 7 月 CPI 符合预期(整体环比 +0.1%、同比 3.4%;核心环比 +0.2%、同比 2.5%,核心追平 2021 年 3 月以来最慢),9 月加息概率由约 51%/55% 降至约 42%(按兵不动约 62%),彭博称债券交易员仍维持“五五开”押注——这正是 8月11日的镜像:昨日三条宏观不利变化之下铝价创新高,今日宏观转鸽而伦铝下跌 65.50 美元,两次观察指向同一结论,即当前铝的定价函数由供应侧主导(此为解读);两条复杂化因素须并列:美元并未因鸽派 CPI 下跌,反由 99.828 升至 99.940;而地缘栏在二十四小时内由缓和反转为升级——胡塞导弹袭击曼德海峡商船致 6 人死亡,美军打击一艘试图突破对伊港口封锁的巴拿马籍货轮,通行量仍为 700–900 万桶/日(战前约 2,000 万),IEA 预计本季缺口 180 万桶/日,免费通行窗口于 8月16日、即三天后到期——本简报昨日因缓和信号对该栏的下调,本期须再次撤回,尽管 Brent 六连涨仍告终结于 88.10 美元;净判定由利多 17 项 / 利空 13 项转为利多 15 项 / 利空 16 项,为本轮反弹以来首次转负,且该转变并非由任何新增利空事件推动,而是由昨日两项多头主张的证伪所推动;多头栏仍持有:实物供应事件(8月12日经股票市场印证,NALCO +8.8%、Hindalco +3.7%)、LME 连续第 32 日去库至 251,700 吨、翻转为升水的基差、终于到来的日盘增仓放量、以及一个已停止与铝价作对的宏观背景;空头栏则持有:一项连续两个交易日被中国氧化铝现货拒绝定价的远期供应损失、一次仅维持一日的伦铝技术突破、一根在区间上沿被拒且收于结算价之下的周期新高 K 线、一个跌破日盘收盘价的夜盘、以及一个被 SMM 自身归因于卖方夺路而逃的现货升水;因此今日的可证伪问题比昨日更窄,且两侧都有具体数字:其一,A00 的升水能否在更低的期货价格下存活?若今日 SHFE 开于 24,200–24,300 区间而 A00 仍维持对近月的升水,则该翻转属需求;若迅速回落至 8月10–11日的 −100 元贴水带,则它只是 10:30 的定价时点撞上了 24,470 的期货冲高;其二,今日为周四,社会库存印记落地——周一口径上期周减 4.1 万吨至 91.7 万吨为序列最陡,周四序列为 95.3 → 93.3 万吨;若今日印记延续加速,则去库这一根支柱可独力承接伦铝的技术性挫折;若印记走平或转增,则本轮反弹将在一周之内同时失去技术位、成本侧确认与库存驱动,而支撑它的就只剩下一座巴西精炼厂——一座迄今没有任何一个中国现货价格愿意为其减产付费的精炼厂。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  1. ⚑ A00 的升水能否在更低的期货价格下存活——本期唯一能了结争论的确认项: 8月12日 A00 涨 270 元至 **24,370,对 AL2608 收盘 24,255 为 +115 元升水(前一日为 −100 元贴水)。** 但 SMM 自身描述为持货商急于出货套现、深贴水货源涌现、有价无市,且主流报价仍为 −30 至 −10 元贴水。 关注今日 A00 定价(约 10:30)与彼时期货价格的关系:若 SHFE 运行于 24,200–24,300 而 A00 仍维持升水,则翻转属需求;若回落至 −100 附近,则属定价时点与卖方行为的合成。
  2. ⚑ 今日周四社会库存印记,以及铝棒印记: 周一序列 97.9 → 95.8 → **91.7 万吨(上期周减 4.1 万吨为序列最陡);周四序列 95.3(7月30日)→ 93.3 万吨(8月6日)→ 今日。** 关注加速是否延续——在伦铝技术位失守、氧化铝现货拒绝确认之后,去库是多头栏中唯一未被质疑的支柱。 同时关注铝棒能否自 13.25 万吨转降(上期周增 1.05 万吨)。
  3. ⚑ 伦铝能否收复 3,319.80(MA5)与 3,350(新区间下沿): 8月12日现货 3,307.50 美元(−65.50),低于 MA5 12.30 美元、低于新区间下沿 42.50 美元、低于 MA60 41.91 美元。 关注今日方向:收复 3,350 则 8月12日属单日回吐;失守 3,279.50(8月7日现货)则本轮上行的国际腿应视为已完成。 同时关注库存能否延续第 33 日下降(现 251,700 吨),以及现货对三个月能否自 1.00 美元贴水收窄。
  4. ⚑ 氧化铝现货能否在第三个交易日给出反应: 8月11日 −3.66、8月12日 +0.36 且全区域零变动、澳洲 FOB 两日停于 347 美元。 关注今日 SMM 指数与山东报价是否出现首次实质变动;若第三日仍无变动,则 Alunorte 应明确标注为尚未进入中国实物定价,成本栏维持“企稳于高位”。 同时关注AO2610 能否守住 2,686(夜盘低点)与 2,664(8月11日低点)。
  5. 24,500 的第二次测试,以及 24,190 的支撑属性: 8月12日高点 AL2609 **24,470、AL2610 24,490,距新区间上沿 24,500 仅 30 / 10 元后失守;夜盘最低 24,190。** 关注今日能否以收盘价站上 24,345(8月12日结算价);上方参考 24,470 / 24,490 / 24,500;下方依次为 24,210(8月12日低)、24,190(夜盘低)、24,117(MA5)、24,100(原区间上沿)。
  6. 日盘持仓与成交能否延续改善: 8月12日 AL2609 **持仓 +1,895、成交 168,542 手(放量 37,391),品种合计 +16,270 手;但夜盘品种持仓转为 −2,200。** 关注今日日盘 AL2609 持仓方向与成交能否维持 15 万手以上:延续改善则 8月12日的日盘读数成立;若持仓再度转减且成交回落,则 8月12日的增仓应重新解读为在高点接货(此为解读)。
  7. ⚑ 出货意愿与采购意愿指数的补发——本期最重要的数据缺口: 8月12日两地四项指数均未取得,8月11日值为华东出货 3.16、采购 3.20;华中出货 3.06、采购 2.95。 关注今日 SMM 午评是否补齐:华东采购意愿若自 3.20 继续上行,则基差翻转获买方侧支持;若明显回落,则本期“升水由卖方造成”的解读得到确认。
  8. 霍尔木兹的三条节点与联储定价: (1)免费通行窗口 8月16日到期,距今三天,是否延期或失效;(2)曼德海峡袭击后是否出现进一步航运中断,以及美伊立场是否再度硬化;(3)Brent 能否守住 88 美元(现 88.10,六连涨终结)。 联储侧关注加息概率能否自约 42% 进一步下行,以及美元指数能否自 99.940 回落——本期美元未随鸽派 CPI 下跌,是宏观栏中与铝价方向一致的唯一一条。

1 · Market Performance

The central fact: a cycle high made and rejected at the band top, on a close below its own settlement

  • AL2609 (August 12, from SHFE’s own daily file, last-trade caliber): open 24,290, high **24,470, low 24,210, close 24,285; settlement 24,345.**
  • Change: **+105 (+0.43%) against the previous settlement of 24,180; +35 (+0.14%) against the previous close of 24,250 — a third consecutive higher close.**
  • ⚑ The close sits **185 BELOW its own high and 60 BELOW its own settlement.** The high of 24,470 came within 30 of the top of SMM’s newly raised 23,900–24,500 core band and **failed there.**
  • ⚑ Volume **168,542 lots, UP 37,391 from 131,151 — the first increase in four sessions and the heaviest since 151,302 on August 7.**
  • ⚑ Open interest **241,339, UP 1,895 — the first build in three sessions.**

The rest of the curve: the largest single-session product build of this rebound

  • AL2608: open 24,270, high 24,420, low 24,150, **close 24,255 (+115 on settlement, +55 on the close); settlement 24,305; volume 6,285, open interest 17,160 (−1,595).**
  • AL2610: open 24,305, high **24,490, low 24,220, close 24,290 (+90 on settlement, +30 on the close); settlement 24,360; volume 104,622, open interest 214,500 (+11,040) — a fourth consecutive large build.**
  • AL2611 close 24,265 (+85), OI 60,562 (+2,374); AL2612 close 24,240 (+75), OI 51,331 (−37); AL2701 close 24,200 (+70), OI 26,528 (+894); AL2707 close 24,210 (+60).
  • ⚑ Whole product: open interest **635,775, +16,270 — the largest single-session build of this rebound — on volume of 325,085.**
  • The AL2609-to-AL2610 open-interest gap narrowed further from 33,887 to **26,839.**

⚑ The night session turns: the first break of the close in three nights

  • AL2609: open **24,300, high 24,335, low 24,190; volume 48,907, open interest 237,355 (−3,984).**
  • AL2610: open **24,250, high 24,340, low 24,190; volume 30,563, open interest 215,472 (+972).**
  • AL2608: open 24,245, high 24,245 (the open was the high), low 24,150; open interest 16,795 (−365).
  • AL2611 open 24,260 (OI −44); AL2612 open 24,230 (OI +795).
  • ⚑ Whole-product night open interest **633,575, DOWN 2,200 (against +9,642 the night before), on 91,185 lots against 103,248.**
  • Against their own **day-session closes: +15 / −40 / −10 (against +40 / +45 / +70 the previous night).** Against **settlements: −45 / −110 / −60 — all three below.**
  • ⚑ **AL2609’s night LOW of 24,190 sits 95 BELOW its day close — the three-night run of never trading back through the close is over.** Sequence: Friday −35 / −30 / −20 → Monday +15 / +20 / −10 → Tuesday +40 / +45 / +70 → Wednesday +15 / −40 / −10.

⚑ LME: the seven-session streak ends and two days of gains go in one print

  • Official/Westmetall caliber (August 12): **cash settlement $3,307.50, DOWN $65.50; three-month $3,308.50, DOWN $65.50.**
  • ⚑ **MA60 at $3,349.41 and the $3,350 core-range top — cleared on August 11 — were both LOST on August 12; the clearance survived exactly one session, and cash now sits $41.91 BELOW MA60.**
  • ⚑ **The cash-to-3M spread held at a $1.00 CONTANGO, unchanged — the curve fell in parallel and did not move back toward backwardation.** Yesterday’s second test also failed.
  • Stocks **251,700 mt, −1,700, a thirty-second consecutive draw.**
  • Technical caliber refreshed to August 12: **MA5 $3,319.80, MA10 $3,267.75, MA30 $3,192.80, with the core range RAISED to $3,350–3,420; cash sits $12.30 below MA5 and $42.50 below the band floor, above only MA10 by $39.75.**
  • ⊘ Two further calibers recorded without reconciliation: TradingEconomics August 12 close $3,341.85 (−0.56%); live August 13 Asia quote $3,306.75, −$53.80 (−1.60%). ⚑ **TradingEconomics CUT its forecasts in the same update: Q3 to $3,377.15 from $3,400.00 and 12-month to $3,580.89 from $3,604.43 — the first downward revision recorded in this brief.**

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The single improvement in the tape is **participation: day-session open interest turned from falling to building (+1,895) and volume from shrinking to expanding (+37,391).** The “falling open interest on shrinking volume into new highs” objection this brief has carried for three sessions **should be withdrawn for August 12’s day session.**
  • What replaced it is an objection about **the shape of the bar: a cycle high on the week’s heaviest volume, rejected at the band top, closing below its own settlement, is a distribution shape (interpretation).**
  • The night session read it the same way and more directly: **all three actives opened below their settlements, the low broke 95 through the day close, and product open interest went from +9,642 to −2,200.**
  • Moving averages refreshed this period (August 12 caliber): the close sits +168 over MA5, +377.5 over MA10, +907.17 over MA30 and **+568.83 (+2.40%) over MA60; the core range was raised to 23,900–24,500, so for the first time there IS an overhead reference — 24,500 — and it has already been tested.**
  • On LME, **yesterday’s support became resistance again inside a single session; the next observed reference below is $3,279.50, the August 7 cash print.**

⚑ Spot: the largest daily gain of the sequence, and the basis flips to a premium

  • SMM A00 aluminium ingot (August 12): **24,370 yuan/mt (range 24,360–24,380), +270 (+1.12%) — the largest single-day gain in this sequence (+110 on August 11; a 10-to-60 band on August 10).**
  • Changjiang caliber **24,360, +260; an SME caliber 24,380 (+280).**
  • ⚑ **Computed basis against AL2608’s close of 24,255: a +115 PREMIUM — flipped from a −100 discount on August 11, a 215-yuan swing in one session and the first premium in this brief’s recent series.** Against AL2609’s close of 24,285 it is +85.
  • ⚑ **SMM’s own South China daily review corroborates independently: spot transactions at a premium of 100–140 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2608 contract; but mainstream quotations at a DISCOUNT of −30 to −10.**
  • ⊘ **The full SMM nine-region table for August 12 was not retrievable; ⊘ a separate aggregator caliber giving Central China 24,360 (+260) does not reconcile with SMM’s regional series and is recorded but not used; Nanhai 24,560 is the August 11 caliber, carried.**

⚑ Alumina: spot unchanged in every region, futures give back the closing-hour spike

  • ⚑ **SMM alumina index 2,692.88, +0.36; Shandong 2,700, Henan 2,735, Shanxi 2,725, Guangxi 2,620, Guizhou 2,765, Lianyungang 2,865, Bayuquan 2,865 — every one UNCHANGED; Australian FOB $347, unchanged.**
  • AO2610 (August 12): open 2,725, high 2,741, low 2,704, **close 2,711; settlement 2,715; +22 on settlement but −16 on the previous close of 2,727; volume 120,140, open interest 239,501 (+7,591).**
  • AO2609: open 2,724, high 2,736, low 2,707, **close 2,714; settlement 2,719; +21 on settlement but −10 on the previous close of 2,724; volume 105,610, open interest 127,042 (−10,753).**
  • AO2611 close 2,733 (+18), OI 61,588 (+1,797); AO2612 close 2,746 (+22); AO2701 close 2,766 (+16), OI 69,509 (−355); AO2707 close 2,859 (+6).
  • ⚑ Alumina product open interest **526,734, DOWN 1,141 — the first product-level decline of the sequence; volume 263,135.**
  • Night session: AO2609 open 2,720, high 2,720, low 2,693, OI 120,121 (−6,921); **AO2610 open 2,717, high 2,719, low 2,686, OI 255,280 (+15,779); alumina night product OI 537,936 (+11,202).**
  • Industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt.

Alloy and others

  • AD2610 (August 12): open 23,595, high 23,750, low 23,595, **close 23,645; settlement 23,670; +90 on settlement and +70 on the previous close; volume 8,755, OI 19,852 (+321).** AD2609 close 23,575; alloy product OI 27,007 (+167).
  • ⚑ Night: AD2610 open 23,615, high 23,685, **low 23,365 — 280 below the day close; AD2609 low 23,300; alloy night OI 26,688 (−319).**
  • Cast aluminium alloy registered warrants, August 12: **17,285 mt, +693 d/d (Jiangsu +570, Zhejiang +153).**
  • ⊘ ADC12: SMM describes it edging **up 50 yuan/mt on August 12, implying roughly 24,250 against the carried 24,200 August 6 level, unreconciled; import window closed at a loss near 800–827 yuan/mt.**
  • Crude: Brent **$88.10, −$0.88 (−0.99%) against a previous close of $88.98 — a six-session rally ends; month +3.97%, year +31.80%.**
  • Dollar index **99.940, −0.0268 (−0.03%), previous close 99.97 — HIGHER than the 99.828 of the day before.**

Interpretation: the basis flip is a real price, but the buying side did not make it

  • The symmetry inverted again this period: **futures closes added only 30 to 55, spot added 270 — spot outran futures by a wide margin, which is why the basis went straight from −100 to +115.**
  • But the mechanism has to be recorded faithfully: SMM’s South China review states that **high absolute prices combined with high premiums prompted holders to rush to sell and cash out, that deeply discounted cargoes flooded the market, that there were offers with few actual deals, that downstream users made only basic passive just-in-time purchases, and that traders entered slowly to push prices lower.**
  • ⚑ The correct statement is therefore: **the basis flipped, and the flip is real as a price; but what produced it was the seller side and the timing of the fix, not the buyer side (interpretation).** SMM A00 is struck around 10:30, precisely while futures were running at 24,470.
  • The alumina column’s two facts corroborate each other and point the same way: **spot unchanged in every region, both front futures closing below their previous closes, and product open interest declining for the first time.** This brief labelled August 11’s move “a closing-hour event, not a session-long repricing” — **the next session’s evidence supports that label.**

3 · Inventory

China: today IS the Thursday print day, unpublished at the time of writing

  • ⚑ **Today, Thursday August 13, is an SMM social-inventory publication day; at 09:20 Beijing no new figure exists.**
  • The last print stands at **917,000 mt (August 10, Monday caliber): −16,000 mt against Thursday August 6’s 933,000 and −41,000 mt against Monday August 3’s 958,000.**
  • Monday series: 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10). Thursday series: 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6) → **today.**
  • ⊘ Billet social inventory **132,500 mt (August 10), +10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber against a separate caliber of about 4,000 mt (conflicting); next print also today.**

LME and others

  • LME stocks **251,700 mt (August 12), −1,700 d/d, a thirty-second consecutive draw; described in reporting as the lowest this century.**
  • ⊘ The cancelled/live warrant split has not refreshed since August 6 (cancelled 13,250 mt; live 244,650 mt) and is **seven sessions stale.**
  • ⊘ SHFE aluminium warrants for August 12 not retrievable; last confirmed **307,008 mt (August 7).**
  • Outbound flows (August 3–9, carried): ingot 124,200 mt (+7,700 w/w); billet 27,500 mt (−6,000 w/w).
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt draw; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt; port bauxite 940,000 mt.

Interpretation

  • This section is again a **carried rather than a new bullish item, but its weight rose this period: with LME’s technical level lost and alumina spot declining to confirm, destocking is the only pillar in the bull column that has not been challenged (interpretation).**
  • A thirty-second consecutive LME draw and a **$65.50 parallel decline in the curve are both true at once: the tonnage keeps falling and the price declined to pay for it — the same class of observation as August 11’s vanishing backwardation.**
  • ⚑ Today’s Thursday print is therefore **the single highest-weight data item of this period: last week’s Monday caliber gave the steepest draw of the series at −41,000 mt, and the Thursday print answers whether the acceleration holds.**

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ US July CPI: in line, and hike pricing turns dovish

  • Released **August 12, 2026.**
  • Headline: **+0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y (June 3.5%).** Core: **+0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y (June 2.6%).** Both annual rates fell 0.1 percentage point.
  • ⚑ **Core at 2.5% y/y matches the slowest annual pace since March 2021.**
  • ⊘ Hike probabilities recorded in parallel: **CME FedWatch at 11:32 a.m. ET on August 12 put a hold near 62%, implying roughly 38% for a hike; a widely cited caliber gives 42%; another gives roughly 40%.** The day before: TradingEconomics about 51% and FedWatch-implied about 55%.
  • Bloomberg’s August 12 framing: **bond traders kept a coin-toss wager on a September hike after the tame CPI.**
  • Next FOMC **September 15–16; current range 3.50–3.75%.**

⚑ But the dollar did not fall

  • Dollar index **99.940, −0.0268 (−0.03%), previous close 99.97; HIGHER than the 99.828 recorded on August 12; month −0.97%, year +1.72%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76.**

⚑ Hormuz: the de-escalation reversed inside twenty-four hours

  • August 11–12: **Yemen’s Houthis launched missile attacks on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, killing six people including two members of the vessel’s security force.**
  • In the same window: **US Central Command struck a Panama-flagged cargo vessel attempting to breach the Iranian port blockade.**
  • Iran’s position: **the Strait remains closed until the US meets its conditions, including war reparations and sanctions removal.**
  • Transits: **roughly 7–9 million barrels per day against a pre-war 20 million.** The IEA projects a **1.8 million bpd shortfall this quarter.**
  • ⚑ **The fee-free transit window still expires around August 16 — three days from today.**
  • Brent fell nonetheless: **$88.10 (−0.99%), ending a six-session rally; US crude inventories +9.1 million barrels (⊘ one caliber calls it the largest since February, another the largest since early 2023).**

China (carried)

  • July CPI +0.5% y/y (+0.8% expected) and PPI +3.5% (+3.8% expected); July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The macro verdict moves from **bearish last period to marginally bullish: inflation in line and September hike odds cut from roughly 51%/55% to about 42% is the first favourable macro turn in two weeks.**
  • ⚑ And it constitutes a **reverse confirmation of yesterday’s judgement: yesterday’s observation was that a new rebound high made against three adverse macro changes meant supply-led pricing; today’s mirror is that a dovish CPI met a $65.50 decline in LME.** Both observations point to the same conclusion (interpretation).
  • Two complications must be carried alongside: **first, the dollar did not fall on the dovish print, rising from 99.828 to 99.940; second, the geopolitical column reversed from de-escalation to escalation inside twenty-four hours, and this brief’s partial downgrade of that column yesterday must be withdrawn again this period.**

5 · Fundamentals

Alunorte: the event is confirmed, and corroborated independently by the equity market

  • Carried: **Norsk Hydro announced August 11 that Alunorte in Pará, Brazil (6.3 Mt/yr, the largest alumina refinery outside China) cut production to 50% after gas supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, disrupted supply; Q3 impact $75–100 million; measures are spot gas purchases and a request for direct access to the Barcarena LNG terminal; no restoration date.**
  • ⚑ **Equity-market corroboration on August 12: NALCO +8.8% to INR 422.20, Hindalco +3.7% to INR 1,087.95, Vedanta Aluminium also higher, with reporting describing aluminium at a seven-week high.**
  • ⚑ **Analyst caliber: alumina now prices at roughly 10% of the aluminium price against a 14–16% historical average — used to argue the cut can support alumina (third-party view, not this brief’s judgement).**
  • This brief’s arithmetic (carried): 6.3 Mt × 50% ≈ **3.15 Mt annualized, about 8,630 mt/day.**

⚑ But for a second consecutive session, Chinese alumina spot declined to price it

  • August 11: index 2,692.52, **−3.66.** August 12: index 2,692.88, **+0.36, with every region unchanged.**
  • Australian FOB has been $347 for two sessions (+$1 on August 11, flat on August 12).
  • ⚑ The futures side did not follow through either: **both AO2610 and AO2609 closed below their previous closes, and product open interest declined for the first time (−1,141).**

Other supply and demand (carried)

  • Hydro’s Qatalum in Qatar shut on gas shortages; the Persian Gulf is roughly 10% of global production; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; overseas supply expected down 980,000 mt in 2026; Alcoa’s alumina guidance cut 200,000–300,000 mt.
  • Domestic: July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with **casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt and operating capacity 45.31 Mt; the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding.**
  • Restarts: Slovalco in Q4, a Missouri smelter at year-end, EGA Al Taweelah (89 of 1,262 pots); Guinea H1 bauxite exports 114.8 Mt (+15% y/y).
  • Demand: processing operating rate **60.1% and falling; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; billet processing fees pulled back; traditional off-season; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August.**
  • ⊘ **Two secondary operating-rate calibers now conflict: SMM’s August 12 release puts China’s secondary aluminium PRODUCER operating rate at 34.6% in July (up m/m, down y/y, constrained by a shortage of compliant scrap), against the 49.4% figure carried in prior briefs; both are recorded and neither is adopted.**
  • Cost and margin (August 4 caliber, carried): average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt, average profit 6,719 yuan/mt.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ **The supply event itself is not weakened; what is weakened is the evidence of its transmission: Alunorte has been priced by the equity market, was priced by the LME forward for one session, and has not been priced by Chinese alumina spot for two consecutive sessions (interpretation).**
  • This brief therefore keeps yesterday’s classification — **the item belongs in the forward column of the cost floor, not the current column — and adds one line: two of the confirmation window’s sessions have now been spent.**
  • No new improvement appeared on the demand side, and the conflicting secondary operating-rate calibers reduce the readability of that column.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

August 12: price and premium/discount

  • SMM A00 **24,370 yuan/mt (24,360–24,380), +270 (+1.12%); Changjiang 24,360, +260; an SME caliber 24,380 (+280).**
  • ⚑ **Computed basis: +115 PREMIUM against AL2608’s close of 24,255 (−100 discount on August 11); +85 against AL2609’s close of 24,285.**
  • ⚑ **SMM South China daily review (August 12): transactions at a premium of 100–140 against SHFE 2608; mainstream quotations at a discount of −30 to −10.**
  • ⊘ The full nine-region table, standalone Foshan and Central China quotes, and the shipment/purchasing sentiment indices were **all unretrievable for August 12; the August 11 values are carried and must be treated as one session stale (East China shipment 3.16, purchasing 3.20; Central China shipment 3.06, purchasing 2.95).**

⚑ SMM’s own description of trading conditions (August 12, South China)

  • “High absolute prices combined with high premiums prompted holders to rush to sell and cash out.”
  • “Deeply discounted cargoes flooded the market”; “the trend of discount widening proved hard to contain.”
  • “Offers with few actual deals”; “downstream users were only making basic passive just-in-time purchases”; “traders were slowly entering the market to push for lower prices.”

Interpretation

  • ⚑ One distinction must be made explicitly this period: **the basis flipped to a premium, and that is a real price fact; but it was not produced by the buying side.**
  • Three pieces of evidence support the distinction: **first, SMM itself describes holders liquidating; second, mainstream quotations remain at a −30 to −10 discount; third, the SMM A00 fix is struck around 10:30, precisely while futures were running to 24,470 (interpretation).**
  • ⚑ This period therefore **cannot carry forward yesterday’s methodological conclusion — the judgement that “purchasing sentiment led the basis” cannot be verified in the absence of that index; ⊘ that gap is the most important data hole of this period.**
  • Only one operational inference follows: **if A00 holds a premium today while futures trade back at 24,200–24,300, the flip is demand; if it snaps back toward −100, it was the timing of the fix combined with seller behaviour (interpretation).**

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (15)

  • ⚑ **SMM A00 +270 to 24,370, the largest daily gain of the sequence; the basis flipped from a −100 discount to a +115 premium, a 215-yuan swing in one session.**
  • ⚑ **SMM’s South China review corroborates independently: transactions at a premium of 100–140 against SHFE 2608.**
  • ⚑ **AL2609 open interest +1,895, the first build in three sessions; volume 168,542, up 37,391 and the heaviest since August 7 — the shrinking-participation objection is withdrawn for the day session.**
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest **635,775 (+16,270), the largest single-session build of this rebound; AL2610 +11,040, a fourth consecutive large build.**
  • AL2609 printed a cycle high of **24,470 and AL2610 24,490; a third consecutive higher close (+105 on settlement).**
  • LME stocks **251,700 mt, a thirty-second consecutive draw, described as the lowest this century.**
  • ⚑ **US July CPI landed in line: headline 3.4% y/y and core 2.5% y/y, with core matching the slowest pace since March 2021.**
  • ⚑ **September hike odds cut from roughly 51%/55% to about 42% (hold near 62%) — the first favourable macro turn in two weeks.**
  • ⚑ **Alunorte corroborated by the equity market: NALCO +8.8% (INR 422.20), Hindalco +3.7% (INR 1,087.95), Vedanta higher; aluminium described at a seven-week high.**
  • Third-party caliber: **alumina at roughly 10% of the aluminium price against a 14–16% historical average.**
  • ⚑ **The Hormuz de-escalation reversed: Houthi missiles struck a vessel in Bab al-Mandeb killing six; CENTCOM struck a Panama-flagged cargo ship; transits 7–9 mb/d against a pre-war 20 mb/d; IEA sees a 1.8 mb/d Q3 shortfall; the fee-free window expires around August 16, three days out.**
  • Alumina night session built heavily: **AO2610 +15,779 lots, product +11,202.**
  • Cast alloy: AD2610 closed 23,645 (+70 on the close); registered warrants 17,285 mt (+693).
  • Carried supply: Qatalum shut; the Persian Gulf ≈10% of global output; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; overseas supply −980,000 mt in 2026; Alcoa’s guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt.
  • Deliverable-form contraction continues: **casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% → 78.5%; the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding.**

Bearish factors (16)

  • ⚑ **LME cash and three-month both fell $65.50 to $3,307.50 / $3,308.50, ending a seven-session streak and erasing the entire August 10 and August 11 advance in one print.**
  • ⚑ **The clearance of MA60 $3,349.41 and the $3,350 range top lasted exactly one session; cash now sits $41.91 below MA60, $42.50 below the new band floor and $12.30 below MA5.**
  • ⚑ **The cash-to-3M spread held at a $1.00 contango and did not return to backwardation — yesterday’s second test failed.**
  • ⚑ **TradingEconomics CUT its forecasts: Q3 $3,400.00 → $3,377.15; 12-month $3,604.43 → $3,580.89 — the first downward revision recorded here.**
  • ⚑ **Alumina spot index 2,692.88, up only 0.36, with every region unchanged and Australian FOB flat at $347 — yesterday’s first test failed in substance.**
  • ⚑ **Alumina futures gave back the closing-hour spike: AO2610 closed 2,711 against a previous close of 2,727; AO2609 2,714 against 2,724; product open interest declined for the first time (−1,141); AO2609 shed 10,753 lots.**
  • ⚑ **SHFE failed at the band top: highs of 24,470 / 24,490 came within 30 and 10 of 24,500; closes sat 185 and 200 below their own highs, and AL2609 closed 60 below its own settlement.**
  • ⚑ **The night session turned: AL2609’s low of 24,190 sits 95 below the day close, the first break of the close in three nights.**
  • ⚑ **All three night actives opened BELOW their settlements (−45 / −110 / −60); against closes, +15 / −40 / −10.**
  • ⚑ **Night product open interest −2,200 (against +9,642); night volume fell from 103,248 to 91,185.**
  • ⚑ **The mechanism behind the premium is unfavourable: SMM describes holders rushing to sell and cash out, deeply discounted cargoes flooding, offers with few actual deals, downstream making only passive just-in-time purchases, and traders pushing prices lower; mainstream quotations remain at a −30 to −10 discount.**
  • ⚑ **The dollar did not fall on a dovish CPI: 99.828 → 99.940.**
  • Brent **ended a six-session rally at $88.10 (−0.99%); US crude inventories +9.1 million barrels.**
  • Demand readings unchanged and still weak: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling, processing PMI 42.2 (all seven sub-sectors contracting), billet processing fees down, traditional off-season; ⊘ two secondary operating-rate calibers conflict (34.6%** versus 49.4%), with SMM attributing the constraint to a shortage of compliant scrap.**
  • Cast alloy fell hard overnight: **AD2610’s night low of 23,365 sits 280 below the day close; AD2609’s low 23,300; alloy night open interest −319.**
  • ⊘ **The data gap is the widest of the recent period: the August 12 SMM nine-region table was not retrievable, the shipment/purchasing sentiment indices — the core evidence of last period’s conclusion — were not retrievable, the Thursday social-inventory and billet prints were unpublished at the time of writing, SHFE warrants were not retrievable (last 307,008 mt on August 7), the LME cancelled-warrant split is seven sessions stale, and the ADC12 and billet calibers conflict.**

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The two falsifiable tests this brief set yesterday both failed — on the one day the macro column finally turned favourable for the first time in two weeks. The first test’s answer: **the SMM alumina index printed 2,692.88 against 2,692.52, up 0.36 yuan, while Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, Guizhou, Lianyungang and Bayuquan were all unchanged to the yuan and Australian FOB held flat at $347 — a 0.36 move on an index of 2,692 with every underlying quote unchanged is not a turn; worse, the alumina futures that did the repricing gave it back: AO2610 closed 2,711 against a previous close of 2,727 and AO2609 2,714 against 2,724, both front actives finishing below their prior closes, with product open interest declining 1,141 for the first time in the sequence — this brief labelled August 11’s move “a closing-hour event, not a session-long repricing,” and the next session’s evidence supports that label; the second test failed more violently: LME cash settled $3,307.50 and three-month $3,308.50, both down $65.50, ending a seven-session streak and erasing the entire August 10 and August 11 advance in a single print; the cash-to-three-month spread did not return to backwardation but held at a $1.00 contango, because the whole curve fell in parallel; MA60 at $3,349.41 and the $3,350 core-range top — the single overhead reference this brief carried for a week, cleared on August 11 — were lost on August 12, so the clearance survived exactly one session, and cash now sits $41.91 below MA60 and $42.50 below the floor of SMM’s newly raised $3,350–3,420 band; TradingEconomics cut its Q3 forecast to $3,377.15 and its twelve-month to $3,580.89 in the same update, the first downward revision recorded in this brief. Against that, one test passed, and it is the one this brief has run for three sessions without an answer: AL2609’s open interest rose 1,895 after two consecutive declines, on volume of 168,542 lots — up 37,391 and the heaviest since August 7 — while whole-product open interest built 16,270, the largest single-session build of this rebound, and AL2610 added 11,040 for a fourth straight session — the “falling open interest on shrinking volume into new highs” objection should be withdrawn for August 12’s day session; what replaced it is an objection about the shape of the bar: AL2609 printed a cycle high of 24,470 and AL2610 24,490, within 30 and 10 of the top of the newly raised 23,900–24,500 band, were rejected there, and closed 24,285 and 24,290 — 185 and 200 below their own highs, with AL2609 closing 60 below its own settlement of 24,345; the night session read it the same way: AL2609 opened 24,300 but traded to 24,190, ninety-five below the day close and the first break of the close in three nights; all three actives opened below their settlements (−45 / −110 / −60); product open interest went from +9,642 to −2,200 on volume down from 103,248 to 91,185; the physical market went further than this brief asked, but the mechanism must be recorded faithfully: SMM A00 rose 270 yuan to 24,370, the largest daily gain of the sequence, and against AL2608’s close of 24,255 the East China basis flipped from a −100 discount to a +115 premium — a 215-yuan swing — corroborated independently by SMM’s South China review placing transactions at a premium of 100–140 against the 2608 contract; yet that same review states that high absolute prices combined with high premiums prompted holders to rush to sell and cash out, that deeply discounted cargoes flooded the market, that mainstream quotations remain at a −30 to −10 discount, that there were offers with few actual deals, that downstream users made only basic passive just-in-time purchases, and that traders entered slowly to push prices lower — a premium built by a 10:30 fix struck while futures ran to 24,470, and then met by holders liquidating into it, is a timing effect plus a supply response, not a bid (interpretation); and the one series that measures the buying side directly — the shipment and purchasing sentiment indices — was precisely what could not be retrieved this period, which is the most important data gap in this brief; macro turned favourable for the first time in two weeks and LME fell anyway: US July CPI landed in line (headline +0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, matching the slowest annual core pace since March 2021), and September hike odds were cut from roughly 51%/55% to about 42% with a hold near 62%, Bloomberg noting bond traders kept a coin-toss wager — this is the exact mirror of August 11, when three adverse macro changes met a new rebound high; both observations point to the same conclusion, that aluminum’s pricing function is currently supply-led with macro carrying reduced weight (interpretation); two complications sit alongside it: the dollar did not fall on the dovish print, rising from 99.828 to 99.940, and the geopolitical column reversed from de-escalation to escalation inside twenty-four hours — Houthi missiles struck a commercial vessel in Bab al-Mandeb killing six, US Central Command struck a Panama-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the Iranian port blockade, transits remain 7–9 million barrels a day against a pre-war 20 million, the IEA projects a 1.8 million bpd shortfall this quarter, and the fee-free window expires around August 16, three days from now — so this brief’s partial downgrade of the geopolitical column yesterday must be withdrawn again, even though Brent still ended a six-session rally at $88.10; net moves from 17 bullish against 13 to 15 against 16 — the first negative net recorded during this rebound, and it is driven not by any new bearish event but by the failure of two bullish claims made yesterday; the bull column still holds a physical supply event corroborated on August 12 by an equity market that marked NALCO up 8.8% and Hindalco 3.7%, a thirty-second consecutive LME draw to 251,700 mt, a basis that flipped to premium, a day-session participation build that finally arrived, and a macro backdrop that has stopped working against the metal; the bear column holds a forward supply loss that two consecutive sessions of Chinese alumina spot have declined to price, an LME breakout that lasted one session, a cycle-high bar rejected at the band top and closed below its settlement, a night session that broke back through the close, and a spot premium that SMM itself attributes to sellers rushing the exit; today’s falsifiable question is narrower than yesterday’s and carries a specific number on each side: first, does the A00 premium survive contact with a lower futures price — if SHFE opens near 24,200–24,300 and A00 still holds a premium to the front month, the flip is demand; if it snaps back toward the −100 discount band of August 10–11, it was the 10:30 fix meeting a 24,470 spike; second, today is Thursday, so the social-inventory print lands — last week’s Monday caliber gave the steepest draw of the series at −41,000 mt to 917,000, and the Thursday series reads 953,000 then 933,000; if today’s print extends the acceleration, destocking can carry the bull case through the LME setback on its own; if it flattens or turns, this rebound will have lost its technical level, its cost-side confirmation and its inventory driver inside a single week, and the only thing left holding it up is a Brazilian refinery whose output loss no Chinese spot price has yet agreed to pay for.**

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  1. ⚑ Whether the A00 premium survives contact with a lower futures price — the one item that can settle the argument: August 12 gave A00 +270 to **24,370 and a +115 premium against AL2608’s close of 24,255 (from a −100 discount).** But SMM’s own description is of **holders rushing to sell and cash out, deeply discounted cargoes flooding, offers with few actual deals, with mainstream quotations still at a −30 to −10 discount.** Watch today’s fix (struck around 10:30) against the futures price at that moment: if SHFE runs 24,200–24,300 and A00 still holds a premium, the flip is demand; **if it returns toward −100, it was the timing of the fix combined with seller behaviour.**
  2. ⚑ Today’s Thursday social-inventory print, and the billet print with it: Monday series 979,000 → 958,000 → **917,000 mt (last week’s −41,000 mt is the steepest of the series); Thursday series 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6) → today.** Watch whether the acceleration holds — with LME’s technical level lost and alumina spot declining to confirm, **destocking is the only unchallenged pillar in the bull column.** Watch alongside **whether billet turns down from 132,500 mt (+10,500 last week).**
  3. ⚑ Whether LME can reclaim $3,319.80 (MA5) and $3,350 (the new band floor): August 12 cash $3,307.50 (−$65.50) sits **$12.30 below MA5, $42.50 below the band floor and $41.91 below MA60.** Watch today’s direction: reclaiming $3,350 makes August 12 a one-day giveback; **losing $3,279.50 (the August 7 cash print) means the international leg of this advance should be treated as complete.** Watch alongside whether stocks post a thirty-third draw from 251,700 mt and **whether the $1.00 contango narrows.**
  4. ⚑ Whether alumina spot reacts on a third session: August 11 −3.66; August 12 +0.36 with every region unchanged; Australian FOB stuck at $347 for two sessions. Watch today’s SMM index and **the Shandong quote for a first substantive move; a third flat session means Alunorte should be explicitly labelled not yet in Chinese physical pricing, and the cost column stays “stabilised at highs.”** Watch alongside **whether AO2610 holds 2,686 (night low) and 2,664 (the August 11 low).**
  5. The second test of 24,500, and whether 24,190 behaves as support: August 12 highs were AL2609 **24,470 and AL2610 24,490, within 30 and 10 of the band top before failing; the night low was 24,190.** Watch whether the day session can close above **24,345 (August 12’s settlement); above that the references are 24,470, 24,490 and 24,500; below, 24,210 (August 12 low), 24,190 (night low), 24,117 (MA5) and 24,100 (former range top).**
  6. Whether day-session participation keeps improving: August 12 gave AL2609 **OI +1,895 on volume of 168,542 (+37,391) and whole-product +16,270; but the night session flipped to −2,200.** Watch today’s day-session open-interest direction and whether volume holds above 150,000 lots: continued improvement validates August 12’s reading; **another decline on lighter volume means August 12’s build should be re-read as length taken at the high (interpretation).**
  7. ⚑ Republication of the shipment and purchasing sentiment indices — the most important data gap of this period: All four indices across both regions were unretrievable for August 12; the August 11 values are **East China shipment 3.16 and purchasing 3.20; Central China shipment 3.06 and purchasing 2.95.** Watch whether today’s SMM midday commentary fills the gap: **East China purchasing rising further from 3.20 would give the basis flip buyer-side support; a clear pullback would confirm this period’s reading that the premium was seller-made.**
  8. The three Hormuz nodes and Fed pricing: (1) **the fee-free transit window expires around August 16, three days from today — extension or lapse; (2) whether further shipping disruption follows the Bab al-Mandeb attack and whether US and Iranian positions harden again; (3) whether Brent holds $88 (now $88.10 after a six-session rally ended).** On the Fed, watch **whether hike odds fall further from about 42% and whether the dollar retreats from 99.940 — the dollar’s refusal to fall on a dovish CPI is the one macro item still pointing the same way as the metal’s decline.**

Sources: Shanghai Futures Exchange official daily data file for the August 12, 2026 trading day, kx20260812.dat, update stamp 20260812 15:32:19 (AL2608 open 24,270, high 24,420, low 24,150, close 24,255, settlement 24,305, change +115 against the previous settlement, volume 6,285 lots, open interest 17,160, −1,595; AL2609 open 24,290, high 24,470, low 24,210, close 24,285, settlement 24,345, change +105 against the previous settlement of 24,180, volume 168,542 lots, open interest 241,339, +1,895; AL2610 open 24,305, high 24,490, low 24,220, close 24,290, settlement 24,360, change +90, volume 104,622 lots, open interest 214,500, +11,040; AL2611 close 24,265, +85, open interest 60,562, +2,374; AL2612 close 24,240, +75, open interest 51,331, −37; AL2701 close 24,200, +70, open interest 26,528, +894; AL2702 close 24,180, +50; AL2703 close 24,190, +65; AL2704 close 24,180, +15; AL2705 close 24,175, +40; AL2706 close 24,185, +35; AL2707 close 24,210, +60; aluminium product totals volume 325,085, open interest 635,775, +16,270; AO2609 open 2,724, high 2,736, low 2,707, close 2,714, settlement 2,719, change +21, volume 105,610 lots, open interest 127,042, −10,753; AO2610 open 2,725, high 2,741, low 2,704, close 2,711, settlement 2,715, change +22, volume 120,140 lots, open interest 239,501, +7,591; AO2611 close 2,733, +18, open interest 61,588, +1,797; AO2612 close 2,746, +22; AO2701 close 2,766, +16, open interest 69,509, −355; AO2705 close 2,823, +5; AO2707 close 2,859, +6; alumina product totals volume 263,135, open interest 526,734, −1,141; AD2609 close 23,575, +90, open interest 5,758, −169; AD2610 open 23,595, high 23,750, low 23,595, close 23,645, settlement 23,670, change +90, volume 8,755 lots, open interest 19,852, +321; AD2611 close 23,705, +100; alloy product totals volume 13,369, open interest 27,007, +167); Shanghai Futures Exchange official data file for the August 13, 2026 trading day, kx20260813.dat, update stamp 20260813 08:53:01, capturing the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 12 (AL2608 open 24,245, high 24,245, low 24,150, volume 670, open interest 16,795, −365; AL2609 open 24,300, high 24,335, low 24,190, volume 48,907, open interest 237,355, −3,984; AL2610 open 24,250, high 24,340, low 24,190, volume 30,563, open interest 215,472, +972; AL2611 open 24,260, open interest 60,518, −44; AL2612 open 24,230, open interest 52,126, +795; AL2701 open 24,200, open interest 26,503, −25; aluminium product totals volume 91,185, open interest 633,575, −2,200; AO2609 open 2,720, high 2,720, low 2,693, volume 35,466, open interest 120,121, −6,921; AO2610 open 2,717, high 2,719, low 2,686, volume 69,288, open interest 255,280, +15,779; AO2611 open 2,735, open interest 61,760, +172; AO2701 open 2,760, open interest 71,349, +1,840; alumina night totals volume 124,412, open interest 537,936, +11,202; AD2609 open 23,560, high 23,600, low 23,300, open interest 5,552, −206; AD2610 open 23,615, high 23,685, low 23,365, open interest 19,724, −128; alloy night totals volume 6,656, open interest 26,688, −319; the file carries no close, settlement or change fields because the August 13 trading day has not completed); Westmetall LME market data table (August 12 cash settlement $3,307.50, three-month $3,308.50, stocks 251,700 mt; August 11 cash $3,373.00, three-month $3,374.00, stocks 253,400 mt; August 10 cash $3,327.50, three-month $3,320.50, stocks 254,900 mt; August 7 cash $3,279.50, three-month $3,280.00, stocks 256,400 mt; August 6 cash $3,261.00, three-month $3,260.00, stocks 257,900 mt; August 5 cash $3,229.00, three-month $3,229.50, stocks 259,400 mt); SMM alumina price page via hq.smm.cn (August 12 SMM alumina index 2,692.88, +0.36; Shandong 2,670–2,730, average 2,700, unchanged; Henan 2,700–2,770, average 2,735, unchanged; Shanxi 2,700–2,750, average 2,725, unchanged; Guangxi 2,590–2,650, average 2,620, unchanged; Guizhou 2,730–2,800, average 2,765, unchanged; Lianyungang 2,770–2,960, average 2,865, unchanged; Bayuquan 2,865, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB $347/mt, unchanged); SMM A00 aluminium ingot daily series via aggregator mirror (August 12 24,370 yuan/mt, +270, +1.12%, range 24,360–24,380; August 11 24,100 yuan/mt, +110, +0.46%, range 24,090–24,110; Changjiang August 12 24,360, +260; an SME caliber August 12 24,380, +280; Nanhai 24,560 on the August 11 caliber); SMM South China spot aluminium daily review dated August 12, 2026, “Futures surged consecutively, premiums squeezed” (spot transaction prices at a premium of 100–140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminium 2608 contract; mainstream quotations at a discount of −30 to −10 yuan/mt; high absolute prices combined with high premiums prompted holders to rush to sell and cash out; the trend of discount widening proved hard to contain; deeply discounted cargoes flooded the market; offers with few actual deals; downstream users making only basic passive just-in-time purchases; traders slowly entering the market to push for lower prices); SMM aluminium morning-meeting caliber dated August 12, 2026 via press mirror (SHFE aluminium closing 24,320 yuan/mt, +0.58%, core range 23,900–24,500, MA5 24,117, MA10 23,907.5, MA30 23,377.83, MA60 23,716.17; LME aluminium 3,364.5, +0.06%, core range 3,350–3,420, MA5 3,319.8, MA10 3,267.75, MA30 3,192.8; SMM A00 spot 24,100, +110 on the prior session; SHFE spot premiums transacting at −8 to 40 yuan/mt; Central China discounts of 120–140 against the SHFE 08 contract; China’s aluminium ingot social inventory 917,000 mt, destocked 16,000 mt on the Thursday comparison and 41,000 mt on the Monday comparison; aluminium billet inventory accumulating about 4,000 mt week-on-week; ADC12 edging up 50 yuan/mt; Foshan A00 versus mixed extrusion scrap about 2,360 yuan and versus shredded scrap about 1,260 yuan); SMM aluminium spot midday commentary dated August 11, 2026 15:28, carried one session stale for the sentiment indices (East China shipment sentiment 3.16, +0.01, purchasing sentiment 3.20, +0.04; Central China shipment 3.06, +0.02, purchasing 2.95, −0.01; quoted spot premium 40 yuan/mt against the August contract and 20 against the August–October spread; Central China transactions at a discount of 120–140; aluminium ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas down 4,500 mt week-on-week); SMM cast aluminium alloy warrant data dated August 12, 2026 (total registered warrants 17,285 mt, +693 mt d/d, Jiangsu +570 mt, Zhejiang +153 mt); SMM secondary aluminium release dated August 12, 2026 (China’s secondary aluminium producer operating rate 34.6% in July 2026, rebounding month-on-month but down year-on-year, with a shortage of compliant aluminium scrap remaining a production constraint); TradingEconomics aluminum page ($3,306.75, −$53.80, −1.60%, previous close $3,360.55, month +4.79%, year +26.66%, Q3 forecast $3,377.15 and 12-month forecast $3,580.89; an August 12 close caliber of $3,341.85, −0.56%; commentary that aluminium rose to $3,380 per tonne in August, the highest in nearly two months, on supply constraints including reduced operations at Brazil’s Alunorte and production shutdowns in the Persian Gulf region historically accounting for approximately 10% of global output, while prices remain below 2022 peaks on weakening Chinese demand); TradingEconomics US dollar page (99.940, −0.0268, −0.03%, previous close 99.97; month −0.97%, year +1.72%; Q3 forecast 99.275, 12-month 97.76; commentary that the index eased as US consumer prices rose broadly in line with expectations in July, easing concerns over imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes, with core inflation matching the slowest annual pace since March 2021 at 2.5% year-over-year); TradingEconomics Brent crude page ($88.10, −$0.88, −0.99%, previous close $88.98; month +3.97%, year +31.80%; commentary that Brent declined after a six-day rally as markets assessed potential US–Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, that the administration is pursuing economic sanctions and a naval blockade targeting Iranian oil exports, that the IEA reported a projected 1.8 million barrel-per-day shortfall this quarter due to Middle East tensions, and that US crude inventories surged by their largest weekly amount since early 2023); Al Jazeera coverage dated August 12, 2026, “Oil prices rise as attacks dent hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening” (Yemen’s Houthis launched missile attacks on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, killing six people including two members of the security force; US Central Command attacked a Panama-flagged cargo vessel attempting to breach the Iranian port blockade; Brent crude rose over 2% overnight into Wednesday, with October futures at $89.53 as of 08:00 GMT, approximately 24% higher than before late February’s US–Israel war against Iran; diplomatic talks via Oman continue but Iran insists the strait remains closed until the US meets conditions including war reparations and sanctions removal; current shipping through the strait averages roughly 7–9 million barrels daily against a pre-war 20 million); US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 and CNBC, NBC News, Kiplinger, Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool and Bloomberg coverage dated August 12, 2026 (CPI rose 0.1% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.4% from a year earlier, down from 3.5% in June; core CPI rose 0.2% in July with an annual rate of 2.5%, down from 2.6% in June; both readings matched market expectations; CME FedWatch showed nearly a 62% chance the Fed holds within its 3.50–3.75% range in September as of 11:32 a.m. ET on August 12, with hike odds cut to 42% on one caliber and declining from over 48% to roughly 38% on another, while other traders priced roughly 40%; Bloomberg reported bond traders kept a coin-toss wager on a September hike after the tame CPI); Norsk Hydro press release dated August 11, 2026 via GlobeNewswire, MINING.COM, StockTitan, Recycling Today and Manila Times (Alunorte received communication from supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Group, on disruptions to natural gas availability; contingency measures include purchasing spot gas volumes, requesting direct access to the Barcarena LNG receiving and regasification terminal, and temporarily reducing alumina production to 50 percent; the plant in Pará has capacity of 6.3 million metric tons of alumina per year; potential Q3 2026 impact for Bauxite & Alumina of $75–100 million; ramp-up to begin as soon as gas availability normalizes, with no date given); AL Circle, Business Standard and Upstox coverage dated August 12, 2026 (NALCO shares surged around 8.8% to INR 422.20 in early trade, Hindalco jumped around 3.7% to INR 1,087.95 on the NSE, and Vedanta Aluminium advanced, following the Alunorte cut; the production cut pushed aluminium prices to a seven-week high; alumina prices are now at 10% of aluminium prices compared with an average of 14% to 16%, though the reduction in Alunorte’s capacity could support alumina prices); SMM aluminium inventory series via hq.smm.cn (August 10 917,000 mt; August 6 933,000 mt; August 3 958,000 mt; July 30 953,000 mt; July 27 979,000 mt; publication on Monday and Thursday, with today, Thursday August 13, a print day and no figure published at the time of writing); carried unchanged from prior briefs: SMM billet social inventory 132,500 mt on August 10 with a conflicting caliber of about 4,000 mt week-on-week; August 3–9 ingot outbound 124,200 mt, +7,700 w/w, and billet outbound 27,500 mt, −6,000 w/w; cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 24,000 mt on a tenth consecutive 200 mt draw; SHFE aluminium warrants 307,008 mt on August 7, −1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m; LME cancelled warrants 13,250 mt and live warrants 244,650 mt on the August 6 caliber; national alumina inventory 7.028 Mt, +24,000 mt w/w, and port bauxite 940,000 mt; industry average alumina full cost near 2,530; SMM’s LME MA60 caliber of $3,349.41; ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt on the August 6 caliber with the import window closed at a loss of 800–827 yuan/mt and a secondary aluminium operating rate of 49.4%; domestic electrolytic aluminium average full cost 16,252 yuan/mt and average profit 6,719 yuan/mt on the August 4 caliber; China’s July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, liquid-aluminium proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt and operating capacity 45.31 Mt with the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y and overseas supply expected down 980,000 mt in 2026; Alcoa’s 2026 alumina guidance cut to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt; Slovalco restarting in Q4 2026, a Missouri smelter at year-end and EGA Al Taweelah at 89 of 1,262 pots as of July 2; Guinea’s record 114.8 Mt of H1 2026 bauxite exports, +15% y/y; downstream processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened; Hydro’s Qatalum shut on gas shortages with the Persian Gulf region roughly 10% of global production; China July CPI +0.5% y/y and PPI +3.5% y/y; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2; US July payrolls −23,000 with May and June revised down a combined 103,000, unemployment 4.1%, average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y; OPEC+ core seven adding 188,000 bpd from September; the Hormuz fee-free window expiring around August 16 under the June 17 memorandum’s 60-day term; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983. Data calibers: all SHFE figures are taken from the exchange’s own daily files on the LAST-TRADE caliber; settlement prices are stated separately and the two are never netted; percentage changes for the August 12 session are computed as SHFE reports them, against the previous SETTLEMENT (24,180 for AL2609), while the comparison against the previous CLOSE of 24,250 is stated separately as +35; the observation that AL2609 closed 60 BELOW its own settlement is arithmetic on confirmed figures, and the “distribution shape” characterisation drawn from it is interpretation; the night session recorded here is complete as to opens, ranges, volumes and open-interest changes but carries NO close or settlement, because the August 13 trading day has not finished; the +15 / −40 / −10 comparisons against day-session closes and the −45 / −110 / −60 comparisons against settlements are arithmetic on confirmed figures, while the inference drawn about the turn is interpretation; three LME calibers are carried without reconciliation — the official/Westmetall cash $3,307.50 and three-month $3,308.50, a TradingEconomics August 12 close of $3,341.85, and a live August 13 Asia quote of $3,306.75; the $1.00 contango and the $65.50 decline are computed on the official caliber only; the SHFE and LME moving averages and core ranges were REFRESHED this period to an August 12 SMM caliber, replacing the five-session-stale August 6 values; SMM’s LME MA60 of $3,349.41 is carried from the older caliber and is the one stale component of the technical block ⊘; the East China basis of +115 is COMPUTED from SMM A00 against AL2608’s close of 24,255 and is not SMM’s published basis; SMM’s own South China caliber of a 100–140 premium against the 2608 contract is recorded separately and independently corroborates the direction; the full SMM nine-region spot table and all four shipment/purchasing sentiment indices for August 12 were NOT retrievable and the August 11 values are carried as one session stale — this is the most consequential gap in this brief, because last period’s central conclusion rested on the purchasing index ⊘; a separate aggregator caliber carrying Central China at 24,360, +260 for August 12 does not reconcile with SMM’s regional series and is recorded but not used ⊘; the SMM alumina index move of +0.36 is recorded as published; the characterisation that it does not constitute a turn, given that every underlying regional quote was unchanged, is interpretation; the Alunorte run-rate arithmetic of approximately 3.15 Mt/yr and 8,630 mt/day is this brief’s derivation from the stated 6.3 Mt/yr capacity and 50% reduction, not a figure published by Norsk Hydro; no restoration date has been announced and none is implied; the alumina-at-10%-of-aluminium observation and the inference that the Alunorte cut can support alumina are third-party analyst views, recorded as such and not adopted; there is no China social-inventory print in this brief because today’s Thursday figure had not published at 09:20 Beijing; the 917,000 mt figure is the August 10 print carried forward, not a new observation; two aluminium billet inventory calibers conflict (+10,500 mt versus about 4,000 mt) and both are recorded; two secondary operating-rate calibers conflict (34.6% for secondary aluminium producers on SMM’s August 12 release versus 49.4% carried) and both are recorded; the SHFE warrant series, the LME stock series and the SMM social inventory series are three distinct calibers and are never netted or summed; SHFE aluminium warrants for August 12 were NOT retrievable and the August 7 figure is carried; the LME cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since August 6 and is seven sessions stale; at least three Fed pricing calibers conflict after the CPI release — a 42% hike probability, a roughly 38% probability implied by a 62% hold, and a roughly 40% caliber — and none is adopted over the others, though all three moved in the same dovish direction from the prior day’s 51%/55%; two US crude inventory calibers conflict on how the 9.1-million-barrel build ranks (largest since February versus largest since early 2023) and both are recorded; the dollar index figure of 99.940 and the Brent figure of $88.10 are live August 13 Asia-session calibers, not completed daily closes; the alumina main contract is AO2610 and remains the tracking caliber; as of writing no Hormuz agreement has been signed, no fee mechanism has been announced, and no reopening of the Strait has been reported; this brief writes at 09:20 Beijing on August 13, before the SHFE day session opens, and contains no August 13 day-session price. Confirmed data and market interpretation are labeled separately throughout; items marked ⊘ are unretrieved, stale or unreconciled and should be treated as unconfirmed.

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