Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: China's inventory breaks below 900kt to 898kt, yet SHFE falls 400 in two sessions. LME backwardation returns.周末版:中国库存跌破 90 万吨至 89.8 万吨,沪铝却两日下跌 400 元;LME 恢复 backwardation。

Saturday, August 15, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Weekend edition, written the morning of Saturday August 15 (Asia), 09:20 Beijing. It closes out BOTH sessions since the last brief — the August 13 trading day and the August 14 trading day — and carries the Friday night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 14 and belongs to the Monday August 17 trading day. SHFE AUGUST 13 TRADING DAY, from the exchange's own daily file `kx20260813.dat`, update stamp 20260813 15:57:16, LAST-TRADE caliber: AL2609 open 24,300, high 24,335, low 24,055, CLOSE 24,090, settlement 24,160, −255 against the previous settlement of 24,345 (−1.05%) and −195 against the previous close of 24,285 (−0.80%); volume 154,596, DOWN 13,946 from 168,542; open interest 230,708, DOWN 10,631. AL2608 close 24,105, settlement 24,115, −200 on settlement, volume 3,770, open interest 15,570 (−1,590). AL2610 open 24,250, high 24,340, low 24,045, close 24,085, settlement 24,160, −275 on settlement, volume 100,414, open interest 221,071 (+6,571). AL2611 close 24,070 (−275), open interest 61,992 (+1,430); AL2612 close 24,035 (−260), open interest 53,076 (+1,745); AL2701 close 24,005 (−245), open interest 27,607 (+1,079); AL2703 close 24,005 (−245); AL2707 close 23,995 (−285). Whole-product volume 304,977, open interest 637,120, UP 1,345. SHFE AUGUST 14 TRADING DAY, file `kx20260814.dat`, update stamp 20260814 15:28:18: AL2609 open 24,145, high 24,170, low 23,810, CLOSE 23,885, settlement 23,945, −275 against the previous settlement of 24,160 (−1.14%) and −205 against the previous close of 24,090 (−0.85%); volume 154,553, open interest 214,610, DOWN 16,098 — a second consecutive double-digit-thousand decline. AL2608 open 24,105, high 24,105, low 23,800, close 23,900, settlement 23,940, −215 on settlement, volume 2,500, open interest 15,050 (−520). AL2610 open 24,100, high 24,170, low 23,795, close 23,885, settlement 23,945, −275 on settlement, volume 119,978, open interest 228,180 (+7,109) — a sixth consecutive build, and the level at which AL2610's open interest OVERTAKES AL2609's, inverting a gap that stood at 26,839 in AL2609's favour on August 12 to 13,570 in AL2610's favour on August 14. AL2611 close 23,845 (−275), open interest 68,018 (+6,026); AL2612 close 23,805 (−305), open interest 54,370 (+1,294); AL2701 close 23,775 (−260), open interest 31,006 (+3,399); AL2704 close 23,765 (−250), open interest 6,318 (+829); AL2707 close 23,875 (−180). Whole-product volume 328,544, open interest 639,697, UP 2,577 — a THIRD consecutive product-level build, delivered on two sessions that fell a combined 400 yuan. FRIDAY NIGHT SESSION (opened 21:00 August 14, belongs to the August 17 trading day; file `kx20260817.dat`, update stamp 20260815 08:52:03): AL2609 open 23,960, high 24,000, low 23,835, volume 60,643, open interest 206,075 (−8,535); AL2610 open 23,975, high 24,005, low 23,850, volume 64,456, open interest 243,284 (+15,104); AL2608 open 23,905, high 23,920, low 23,820, volume 215, open interest 15,060 (+10); AL2611 open 23,955, open interest 72,735 (+4,717); AL2612 open 23,915, open interest 54,390 (+20); AL2701 open 23,830, open interest 31,727 (+721). Whole-product night volume 151,099, open interest 652,352, UP 12,655 — the largest night-session build recorded in this sequence. Measured against their own day-session CLOSES the three actives opened +5, +75 and +90; measured against SETTLEMENTS, +15, +30 and −35 for AL2608, so AL2609 and AL2610 opened above BOTH references for the first time since August 11. AL2609's night LOW of 23,835 sits 25 ABOVE Friday's day low of 23,810. MOVING AVERAGES ARE THIS BRIEF'S OWN CALIBER THIS EDITION, computed from ninety trading sessions of SHFE main-contract closes taken from the exchange's own daily files, April 7 through August 14, and they REPLACE the five-session-stale SMM values carried previously: MA5 24,135.00, MA10 23,976.00, MA20 23,640.75, MA30 23,456.33, MA40 23,347.50, MA60 23,650.00. On those values the August 14 close of 23,885 sits 250.00 BELOW MA5 (−1.04%), 91.00 BELOW MA10 (−0.38%), +244.25 over MA20 (+1.03%), +428.67 over MA30, +537.50 over MA40 (+2.30%) and +235.00 over MA60 (+0.99%). The August 13 close of 24,090 was already 76.00 below that session's MA5 of 24,166.00 — so August 13 was the FIRST close below MA5 since July 28, and August 14 the FIRST close below MA10 since July 27, when 23,195 printed against an MA10 of 23,204.00. The twenty-session close range is 23,010–24,285; the sixty-session range is 22,370–24,825. Weekly: the August 14 close of 23,885 sits 155 BELOW the August 7 close of 24,040 (−0.64%), against +410 the week before; the week's high is 24,470 (August 12) and the week's low 23,810 (August 14), a 660-point range and an outside reversal. SMM's own expected ranges were CUT in its August 14 release to SHFE 23,600–24,450 (from a 23,900–24,500 core band) and LME $3,180–3,330 (from $3,350–3,420); the August 14 close of 23,885 therefore sits BELOW the old band floor of 23,900 and 285 above the new floor of 23,600. ALUMINA, AUGUST 13: AO2610 open 2,717, high 2,719, low 2,666, close 2,680, settlement 2,685, −35 on settlement and −31 on the previous close of 2,711, volume 180,221, open interest 274,689 (+35,188); AO2609 open 2,720, high 2,720, low 2,672, close 2,687, settlement 2,692, −32 on settlement, volume 79,494, open interest 113,727 (−13,315); AO2611 close 2,703 (−32); AO2612 close 2,724 (−26); AO2701 close 2,739 (−30), open interest 75,102 (+5,593). Alumina product volume 311,849, open interest 560,505, UP 33,771. ALUMINA, AUGUST 14 — the one board that ROSE while aluminium fell: AO2610 open 2,674, high 2,711, low 2,674, close 2,696, settlement 2,688, +11 on settlement and +16 on the previous close, volume 165,127, open interest 269,518 (−5,171); AO2609 open 2,698, high 2,711, low 2,679, close 2,696, settlement 2,692, +4 on settlement and +9 on the previous close, open interest 103,710 (−10,017); AO2611 close 2,714 (+8); AO2612 close 2,735 (+16); AO2701 close 2,753 (+14), open interest 76,152 (+1,050); AO2707 close 2,859 (+16). Alumina product volume 253,159, open interest 545,049, DOWN 15,456. Alumina night session (August 14): AO2610 open 2,695, high 2,710, low 2,683, volume 77,197, open interest 275,526 (+6,008); AO2609 open 2,688, high 2,709, low 2,686, open interest 102,086 (−1,624); alumina night product volume 103,671, open interest 549,822 (+4,773). ALUMINA SPOT, AUGUST 14: SMM alumina index 2,689.77, DOWN 0.58, against 2,692.88 on August 12 — a 3.11-yuan decline over the two sessions. Regional: Shandong 2,695 (range 2,660–2,730), Henan 2,730 (2,700–2,760), Shanxi 2,720 (2,690–2,750), Guangxi 2,615 (2,580–2,650), Guizhou 2,765 (2,730–2,800), Lianyungang 2,865 (2,770–2,960). Against the August 12 caliber, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Guangxi are each DOWN 5 yuan while Guizhou and Lianyungang are unchanged — the first regional declines after two sessions of every-region-flat. AUSTRALIAN ALUMINA FOB $349/mt, UP $1 from $347, and overseas trades on August 14 include 30,000 mt at $374/mt CFR Malaysia for August shipment, with $360/mt FOB WA and $358/mt FOB EA quoted for October shipment. SMM's own August 13 weekly assessment frames it directly: Brazilian production cuts and stronger overseas prices provide support while domestic alumina remains weak, with persistent internal-external divergence. Industry average full cost near 2,530 carried. LME, AUGUST 13 AND 14, official/Westmetall caliber: August 13 CASH $3,279.00, DOWN $28.50, THREE-MONTH $3,275.00, DOWN $33.50, stocks 250,000 mt (−1,700); August 14 CASH $3,248.00, DOWN $31.00, THREE-MONTH $3,246.00, DOWN $29.00, stocks 248,300 mt (−1,700). THE SPREAD FLIPPED BACK TO BACKWARDATION: cash over three-month was −$1.00 (contango) on August 12, +$4.00 on August 13 and +$2.00 on August 14, achieved while the flat price fell $59.50 across the same two sessions. Cash is $125.00 below the August 11 peak of $3,373.00 (−3.71%), $31.50 below the August 7 close of $3,279.50 on the week (−0.96%), and below the August 6 print of $3,261.00, making it the lowest cash settlement since August 5's $3,229.00; three-month is $34.00 lower on the week. On this brief's own LME caliber, computed from sixty-one sessions of Westmetall cash settlements, MA5 $3,307.00, MA10 $3,283.55, MA20 $3,236.72, MA40 $3,195.09 and MA60 $3,337.01, so cash sits $59.00 BELOW MA5, $35.55 BELOW MA10, $11.28 above MA20, $52.91 above MA40 and $89.01 BELOW MA60; the twenty-session cash range is $3,156.00–3,373.00. ⊘ A TradingEconomics caliber is recorded without reconciliation: $3,247.70 on August 14, +$6.20 (+0.19%) against a stated previous close of $3,241.50, month +3.18%, year +24.74%, with the Q3 forecast held at $3,377.15 and the twelve-month at $3,580.89 — unchanged after the August 12 cut, so no further revision. INVENTORY: CHINA INGOT SOCIAL INVENTORY, THURSDAY AUGUST 13, 898,000 mt (SMM caliber, published as 89.8万吨) — DOWN 35,000 mt against Thursday August 6's 933,000 and DOWN 19,000 mt against Monday August 10's 917,000. This is the steepest Thursday-to-Thursday draw of the series and the FIRST print below 900,000 mt. The Thursday series now reads 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6) → 898,000 (Aug 13); the Monday series reads 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10). CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY INGOT SOCIAL INVENTORY TURNED: 25,500 mt on August 13, UP 1,500 mt week-on-week, ENDING ten consecutive weeks of destocking that had run a cumulative 38,900 mt; SMM attributes the build to the high-temperature off-season, weak downstream demand, sluggish shipments, and a weakened spot-futures spread with futures at a premium that pulled spot-futures traders in to buy dips and raised warehouse inflows, and expects further buildup because demand has yet to recover visibly. LME aluminium stocks 248,300 mt on August 14, −1,700 d/d, a thirty-fourth consecutive draw, −8,100 mt on the week, and the first print below 250,000 mt. ⊘ The LME cancelled/live warrant split has NOT refreshed since the August 6 caliber (cancelled 13,250 mt, −10.17%; live 244,650 mt) and is now nine sessions stale. ⊘ SHFE aluminium warrants were not retrievable for August 13 or August 14; last confirmed 307,008 mt on August 7 (−1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m). ⊘ The aluminium billet inventory print for August 13 was not retrievable; the last figure stands at 132,500 mt on August 10, +10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber, against a separate SMM caliber near 4,000 mt, unreconciled. National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w) carried; port bauxite 940,000 mt carried; alumina refinery bauxite inventory approximately 96 days, with weekly China bauxite arrivals of 5.2267 Mt. SPOT: SMM A00 aluminium ingot 24,120 yuan/mt on August 13 (range 24,110–24,130), DOWN 250 (−1.03%), and 23,870 yuan/mt on August 14 (range 23,860–23,880), DOWN 250 (−1.04%); on the week, SMM's own weekly caliber puts A00 at an average 24,145, +2% w/w, with the August 13 close +320 against the previous week. THE FULL SMM NINE-REGION TABLE FOR AUGUST 14 WAS RETRIEVED: Shanghai 23,870 (−250), Wuxi 23,860 (−260), Hangzhou 23,900 (−260), Zhongyuan 23,770 (−250), Foshan 23,920 (−280), Chongqing 23,830 (−250), Tianjin 23,920 (−200), Linyi 23,920 (−220), Shenyang 23,865 (−145); Nanhai 24,480 (−280) is the August 13 caliber. COMPUTED BASIS: against AL2608's close of 23,900, SMM A00 at 23,870 implies a −30 DISCOUNT on August 14, against +15 on August 13 (A00 24,120 vs AL2608 24,105) and +115 on August 12; against AL2609's close of 23,885 the August 14 basis is −15. SMM's own August 14 South China daily review places spot TRANSACTIONS at a PREMIUM of 60–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2608 contract, with mainstream quotations at a discount of −10 to 0 — an improvement from the −30 to −10 recorded on August 12 — and describes holders trying firm prices in the morning, then lowering slightly as bearish sentiment brewed into the weekend and the willingness to cash out early rose, supply relatively ample, some sellers still holding premiums and selling slowly, downstream buyers first avoiding purchases in anticipation of lower prices and then restocking at reduced levels, moderate overall volumes, and traders mainly seeking discounted cargo. ⊘ The East China and Central China shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable for August 13 or August 14; the August 11 values are carried (East China shipment 3.16, purchasing 3.20; Central China shipment 3.06, purchasing 2.95) and are now three sessions stale. SECONDARY: AD2610 August 13 close 23,395, settlement 23,455, −275 on settlement and −250 on the previous close of 23,645, volume 9,879, open interest 19,459 (−393); August 14 open 23,385, high 23,435, low 23,070, close 23,135, settlement 23,190, −320 on settlement and −260 on the previous close, volume 10,138, open interest 18,280 (−1,179). AD2609 August 14 close 23,110, −275 on settlement, open interest 4,911 (−396). Alloy product open interest 24,821, DOWN 1,435. Night session August 14: AD2610 open 23,170, high 23,270, low 23,135, open interest 18,247 (−33). AD2610 has fallen 510 yuan (−2.16%) across the two sessions. ADC12: SMM's weekly caliber puts it at 24,400 early in the week and 24,200 mid-to-late week, little changed week-on-week; overseas ADC12 offers $3,090–3,120/mt and import losses now EXCEED 1,000 yuan/mt, widened from the 800–827 carried previously. Aluminium scrap spreads: A00 against paint-free mixed extrusion scrap 2,310 yuan/mt, against shredded tense scrap 1,210 yuan/mt; imported shredded zorba 21,770 at Ningbo and 21,820 at Tianjin, tax-inclusive. MACRO: US JULY RETAIL SALES FELL 0.6% m/m on August 14 against +0.1% expected, the steepest monthly decline since May 2025, with ex-autos-and-gasoline −0.2% m/m and still +5.0% y/y; the release landed 08:30 New York, which is 20:30 Beijing — thirty minutes before the SHFE night session opened. UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PRELIMINARY AUGUST SENTIMENT 51.0, against 55.2 prior and 54.5 expected. August 13 carried: PPI flat on the headline with core +0.4%, initial claims 209,000. FED PRICING: September hike odds fell to roughly 29% on August 14 from about 34% Thursday night, having been about 42% after the August 12 CPI and about 55% a week earlier; ⊘ a separate caliber puts the hike probability near 33% against nearly 50% a week ago, and both are recorded without reconciliation. Next FOMC September 15–16. US DOLLAR INDEX 99.608 on August 14, DOWN 0.36% — the first clear decline of this sequence, against 99.940 on August 13 and 99.828 on August 12; ⊘ a separate intraday caliber has DXY bouncing off session lows to 99.64. US 2-year 4.16% into the print and bid after; 10-year 4.65% pre-data and richer post. ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS: Brent closed $88.52 on August 14, +1.7% on one caliber, with Brent and WTI both up more than 5% on the week ⊘ — the daily percentage is not reconciled against the August 13 close of $87.92 carried from this brief's equity sibling, and both are recorded. WTI near $82. Two ADNOC-owned tankers were attacked by drones on Thursday August 13 while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with British military reporting describing the damage as minor; the UAE foreign ministry blamed Iran directly and called the strikes acts of piracy by the Revolutionary Guard Corps. US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the naval blockade of Iran's ports can run indefinitely, and Treasury Secretary Bessent said measures amounting to economic isolation of a kind never seen in history will be announced next week. Iran's central bank governor said the country will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank. The fee-free transit window under the June 17 memorandum still expires AROUND AUGUST 16 — tomorrow. Carried: transits average roughly 7–9 million barrels per day against a pre-war 20 million; the IEA projects a 1.8 million bpd shortfall this quarter; US SPR at its lowest since 1983; OPEC+ core seven raising output 188,000 bpd from September. SUPPLY — THE TWO ITEMS THAT MOVED THE MARKET: FIRST, EMIRATES GLOBAL ALUMINIUM said on August 12, alongside its H1 2026 results, that its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi is running at 18% OF CAPACITY and expects to reach pre-war capacity by Q1 2027; restoration capex is AED 1.5 billion with most of it spent this year; basic utilities have been restored across the site with natural gas and electricity availability projected to ramp in line with the restart programme; and the Al Taweelah recycling plant is at 10% of capacity with full production expected by end-2026. The plant was force-shut on March 28 after Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi. SMM's own August 14 note puts the same figure as 18% of the plant's 1,262 electrolysis cells restarted and calls the pace faster than the market had previously expected, explicitly naming it as the item pressuring the supply-tightness premium traders had been paying — against the 89 of 1,262 pots, roughly 7%, that this brief has carried as the July 2 caliber since. Reuters-sourced coverage headlined the metal's move directly as aluminium falling on EGA reaffirming its output recovery timeline. SECOND, TOMAGO: on August 13, Australia's largest aluminium smelter secured a government-backed package of A$2.5 billion, about US$1.8 billion, structured over a decade from 2029 to extend operations and give the plant time to switch to lower-emission electricity; Tomago Aluminium, the venture that runs the plant, will itself invest A$1.1 billion and will cut power consumption at times of high grid demand. Rio Tinto owns slightly more than half of the New South Wales plant, with Gove Aluminium Finance and Norsk Hydro ASA holding the remaining stakes; Rio has previously said electricity accounts for more than 40% of Tomago's operating costs. CARRIED SUPPLY: Norsk Hydro's Alunorte in Pará, Brazil, capacity 6.3 Mt/yr and the largest alumina refinery outside China, cut to 50% of capacity after gas supplier CELBA disrupted natural gas availability, with an estimated Q3 2026 impact of $75–100 million and no restoration date; Qatalum in Qatar shut on natural gas shortages; Alcoa cut 2026 alumina guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt. China: weekly electrolytic aluminium output basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion rising; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt against operating capacity 45.31 Mt, with the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding. Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026. Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 2026 and a Missouri smelter at year-end. BAUXITE: SMM imported bauxite index $71.72/mt; Guinea CIF $70–74 and August contract $73–74; Guinea FOB $38–42; Guinea-to-China freight approximately $35/dmt and rising; domestic as of August 7 — Shanxi 530–550 yuan/mt, Henan 500–540, Guiyang 490–540, Guangxi 320–335; Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y. DEMAND: SMM's August 14 downstream release reports PV FRAME operating rates STABLE through the week, with leading enterprises holding ample orders sufficient to maintain high production through month-end, PV module buyers keeping procurement strategies unchanged despite the recent aluminium price increase, and frame enterprises having no short-term plans to adjust processing fees; rates are expected to continue running steady. Carried: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened in the traditional off-season; secondary aluminium PRODUCERS' operating rate 34.6% in July on SMM's August 12 release against a 49.4% secondary aluminium figure carried in prior briefs, both recorded ⊘. CHINA MACRO: carried — July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2. ⊘ China's July activity data — industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property — is due on the August 15/17 window and was NOT released at the time of writing; a pre-release consensus caliber of industrial output +4.8% y/y and retail sales +1.8%, alongside Jan-July property investment −6.4% y/y and new construction starts −36.1% y/y, is recorded as unconfirmed and must not be treated as printed data. Everything attributed above is confirmed reporting; the aluminum price impact is labeled interpretation.
Steven Yuan
EGA AL TAWEELAH AT 18% Running at 18% of capacity, full pre-war capacity by Q1 2027. SMM: 'faster than the market had previously expected'
vs 7% carried since July 2 89 of 1,262 pots on July 2 → 18% of 1,262 cells now. AED 1.5bn capex; recycling plant 10%, full by end-2026
TOMAGO RESCUED A$2.5bn (US$1.8bn) over a decade from 2029; Tomago invests A$1.1bn and curtails power at peak. Rio owns just over half
SHFE loses 400 in two AL2609 24,090 (−255 settle) then 23,885 (−275 settle, −205 close). Cycle close 24,285 → 23,885
AN OUTSIDE REVERSAL WEEK Week −155 (−0.64%) vs Aug 7's 24,040, after +410 the week before. High 24,470 Wed, low 23,810 Fri
FIRST CLOSE BELOW MA10 23,885 vs MA10 23,976.00 — first since July 27. Also 250 below MA5 24,135.00
But the long averages hold +244.25 over MA20, +537.50 over MA40, +235.00 over MA60 (23,650.00). Own caliber, 90 sessions
SMM CUTS BOTH BANDS SHFE to 23,600–24,450 from 23,900–24,500; LME to $3,180–3,330 from $3,350–3,420
LME −$125 in three Cash $3,279.00 (−28.50) then $3,248.00 (−31.00). Below Aug 7's $3,279.50 AND Aug 6's $3,261.00
BACKWARDATION RETURNS −$1.00 contango (Aug 12) → +$4.00 (Aug 13) → +$2.00 (Aug 14), while flat price fell $59.50
LME stocks break 250kt 248,300 mt, −1,700, a 34th consecutive draw; −8,100 on the week
THURSDAY PRINT BREAKS 900KT 898,000 mt, −35,000 w/w vs Aug 6's 933,000 — steepest Thursday draw of the series
The bull test passed cleanly Also −19,000 vs Monday's 917,000. Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000
A00 −250 twice 24,370 → 24,120 → 23,870. The basis went +115 → +15 → −30 vs AL2608's 23,900
But no snap-back to −100 SMM South China still places transactions at a 60–100 PREMIUM; quotes improve from −30/−10 to −10/0
CAST ALLOY INVENTORY TURNS 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w — ends TEN consecutive weeks of destocking (−38,900 mt cumulative)
Alumina splits in two SMM index 2,689.77 (−0.58), four regions −5 each. Australian FOB $349, +$1; $374 CFR Malaysia traded
Alumina futures diverge AO2610 +16 on Aug 14 while AL2609 fell 205. Product OI −15,456 after +33,771
RETAIL SALES −0.6% Worst since May 2025 vs +0.1% expected; ex-autos-and-gas −0.2%. Landed 30 min before the night session
UMich collapses to 51.0 From 55.2, against 54.5 expected. Four consecutive dovish prints in eight days
HIKE ODDS 29% From ~34% Thursday night, ~42% after CPI, ~55% a week ago. FOMC Sept 15–16
THE DOLLAR FINALLY BREAKS DXY 99.608, −0.36%, from 99.940 and 99.828. The first clear decline of this sequence
Brent $88.52, +5% wk Blockade 'indefinite'; Bessent promises 'economic isolation' measures next week; two ADNOC tankers hit
FRIDAY NIGHT BOUNCES AL2609 opens 23,960 (+75 close, +15 settle), AL2610 23,975 (+90, +30). Highs 24,000 / 24,005
On the biggest night build Product OI +12,655 to 652,352 — the largest of this sequence. Night low 23,835 held above Friday's 23,810
THE ROLL HAPPENED AL2610 OI 228,180 overtakes AL2609's 214,610. A 26,839 gap in 2609's favour became 13,570 in 2610's
Product OI built anyway 637,120 (+1,345) then 639,697 (+2,577) on two sessions that fell 400 — fresh shorts, not liquidation
ADC12 and alloy fall harder AD2610 −510 (−2.16%) in two sessions; ADC12 24,400 → 24,200; import losses now exceed 1,000 yuan/mt
HORMUZ WINDOW EXPIRES The fee-free transit window under the June 17 memorandum expires around August 16 — tomorrow

一 · 行情表现

核心事实:两个交易日累计下跌 400 元,周线收出外包反转

  • AL2609(8月13日,上期所口径,最后成交价):开 24,300,高 24,335,低 24,055,收 24,090;结算 24,160;较前结算价 24,345 跌 255 元(−1.05%),较前收盘价 24,285 跌 195 元(−0.80%)。成交 154,596 手(−13,946),持仓 230,708 手(−10,631)。
  • AL2609(8月14日):开 24,145,高 24,170,低 23,810,收 23,885;结算 23,945;较前结算价 24,160 跌 275 元(−1.14%),较前收盘价 24,090 跌 205 元(−0.85%)。成交 154,553 手,持仓 214,610 手(−16,098)。
  • ⚑ 两个交易日自 24,285 累计下跌 400 元(−1.65%);自 8月12日 24,470 的周期高点至 8月14日 23,810 的低点,回撤 660 元(−2.70%)。
  • ⚑ 周线:较 8月7日收盘价 24,040 下跌 155 元(−0.64%)——上一周为 +410 元;周内高点 24,470(周三)、低点 23,810(周五),振幅 660 元,构成外包反转周线。

⚑ 均线口径本期自建刷新:失守 MA5 与 MA10

  • 本期均线为本简报自建口径:取自上期所自身日行情文件,主力合约收盘价、90 个交易日(4月7日至8月14日),替代此前延续的、已滞后五个交易日的 SMM 数值。
  • MA5 24,135.00、MA10 23,976.00、MA20 23,640.75、MA30 23,456.33、MA40 23,347.50、MA60 23,650.00。
  • ⚑ 8月14日收盘价 23,885:低于 MA5 250.00 元(−1.04%)、低于 MA10 91.00 元(−0.38%);高于 MA20 244.25 元(+1.03%)、高于 MA30 428.67 元、高于 MA40 537.50 元(+2.30%)、高于 MA60 235.00 元(+0.99%)。
  • ⚑ 8月13日已是 7月28日以来首次收于 MA5 之下(24,090 对当日 MA5 24,166.00);8月14日则是 7月27日以来首次收于 MA10 之下(彼时 23,195 对 MA10 23,204.00)。
  • 20 个交易日收盘价区间 23,010–24,285;60 个交易日区间 22,370–24,825。
  • ⚑ SMM 于 8月14日下调自身预期区间:沪铝 23,600–24,450(原核心区间 23,900–24,500);收盘价 23,885 因而落于原区间下沿之下、新区间下沿之上 285 元。

其余合约:主力换月完成,而品种持仓仍在增加

  • AL2608(8月14日):开 24,105、高 24,105、低 23,800,收 23,900;结算 23,940(较前结算价 −215);持仓 15,050(−520)。
  • AL2610(8月14日):开 24,100、高 24,170、低 23,795,收 23,885;结算 23,945(较前结算价 −275);成交 119,978 手,持仓 228,180 手(+7,109)。
  • ⚑ AL2610 持仓已超越 AL2609:228,180 对 214,610;8月12日尚为 AL2609 领先 26,839 手,8月14日转为 AL2610 领先 13,570 手——主力换月完成。
  • AL2611 收 23,845(−275),持仓 68,018(+6,026);AL2612 收 23,805(−305),持仓 54,370(+1,294);AL2701 收 23,775(−260),持仓 31,006(+3,399)。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓:8月13日 637,120 手(+1,345),8月14日 639,697 手(+2,577)——连续第三个交易日增仓,且发生在合计下跌 400 元的两个交易日上。
  • 成交:8月13日 304,977 手,8月14日 328,544 手。

⚑ 周五夜盘:高开于收盘价与结算价之上,并录得本序列夜盘最大增仓

  • 夜盘于 8月14日 21:00 开盘,归属 8月17日(周一)交易日;文件 kx20260817.dat,更新时间 20260815 08:52:03。
  • AL2609:开 23,960,高 24,000,低 23,835;成交 60,643 手,持仓 206,075(−8,535)。
  • AL2610:开 23,975,高 24,005,低 23,850;成交 64,456 手,持仓 243,284(+15,104)。
  • AL2608:开 23,905,高 23,920,低 23,820;持仓 15,060(+10)。AL2611 开 23,955(持仓 +4,717);AL2701 开 23,830(持仓 +721)。
  • ⚑ 对各自日盘收盘价:+5 / +75 / +90;对各自结算价:AL2608 −35,而 AL2609 +15、AL2610 +30——AL2609 与 AL2610 自 8月11日以来首次同时高于两个参照价。
  • ⚑ 品种合计夜盘持仓 652,352 手,增加 12,655 手——本序列夜盘最大增仓;成交 151,099 手。
  • ⚑ 夜盘最低 23,835,较周五日盘低点 23,810 高 25 元,低点未被跌破。

⚑ 伦铝:三连跌 125 美元,但价差重回升水

  • 官方 / Westmetall 口径:8月13日现货结算 3,279.00 美元(−28.50),三个月 3,275.00 美元(−33.50);8月14日现货 3,248.00 美元(−31.00),三个月 3,246.00 美元(−29.00)。
  • ⚑ 自 8月11日 3,373.00 美元的高点累计下跌 125.00 美元(−3.71%);全周现货跌 31.50 美元(−0.96%)、三个月跌 34.00 美元(−1.04%)。
  • ⚑ 现货已低于 8月7日的 3,279.50 美元,亦低于 8月6日的 3,261.00 美元——为 8月5日(3,229.00 美元)以来最低。
  • ⚑ 现货对三个月价差重新翻转为升水(backwardation):8月12日 −1.00 美元(贴水)→ 8月13日 +4.00 美元 → 8月14日 +2.00 美元;且这一收紧发生在绝对价格同期下跌 59.50 美元之时。
  • 本简报自建伦铝口径(Westmetall 现货结算价,61 个交易日):MA5 3,307.00、MA10 3,283.55、MA20 3,236.72、MA40 3,195.09、MA60 3,337.01 美元;现货低于 MA5 59.00、低于 MA10 35.55、低于 MA60 89.01 美元,高于 MA20 11.28、高于 MA40 52.91 美元。
  • ⚑ SMM 同步下调伦铝预期区间至 3,180–3,330 美元(原 3,350–3,420);现货 3,248 美元落于新区间之内,高于下沿 68 美元。
  • ⊘ TE 口径并列不作调和:8月14日 3,247.70 美元(+6.20,+0.19%),前收盘 3,241.50 美元;月 +3.18%、年 +24.74%;三季度预测维持 3,377.15 美元、十二个月维持 3,580.89 美元,即 8月12日下调后未再变动。

解读

  • ⚑ 价格位置:收盘价处于回调区,而非高位区。周期高点 24,470 与周五低点 23,810 之间,收盘 23,885 位于该 660 元区间的下沿附近;但相对 20/40/60 日均线仍为偏高位置(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 持仓形态是本期最重要的机制读数:AL2609 连续两日大幅减仓(−10,631、−16,098),表面看似多头离场;但 AL2610 连续增仓并完成对 AL2609 的超越,且品种合计持仓在两个下跌日上仍增加 1,345 与 2,577 手——这更接近新空建仓并向远月移仓,而非多头了结(此为解读)。
  • 技术上两日内失去三个参照:MA5、MA10、以及旧核心区间下沿 23,900。下方在观测数据内的下一组参照为 23,810(周五低点)与 23,650(MA60)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝一栏出现与绝对价格直接矛盾的信号:曲线在下跌中由贴水转为升水。若为真实过剩,近月不应收紧(此为解读)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:连续两日各跌 250 元,升水回吐但未回到深贴水

  • SMM A00 铝锭:8月13日 24,120 元/吨(区间 24,110–24,130),跌 250 元(−1.03%);8月14日 23,870 元/吨(区间 23,860–23,880),跌 250 元(−1.04%)。
  • SMM 周度口径:A00 周均 24,145 元/吨,周涨约 2%;8月13日收盘价较上一周高 320 元。
  • ⚑ 推算基差:8月14日 A00 23,870 对 AL2608 收盘价 23,900 为 −30 元贴水;8月13日为 +15 元(24,120 对 24,105);8月12日为 +115 元。对 AL2609 收盘价 23,885 则为 −15 元。
  • ⚑ 但并未回到 8月10–11日的 −100/−120 贴水带;SMM 自身 8月14日华南日评仍将成交定在对 SHFE 2608 合约升水 60–100 元,主流报价 −10 至 0 元,较 8月12日的 −30 至 −10 元有所改善。
  • ⚑ 8月14日 SMM 九区域完整报价表已取得:上海 23,870(−250)、无锡 23,860(−260)、杭州 23,900(−260)、中原 23,770(−250)、佛山 23,920(−280)、重庆 23,830(−250)、天津 23,920(−200)、临沂 23,920(−220)、沈阳 23,865(−145);南海 24,480(−280)为 8月13日口径。

⚑ 氧化铝:内外分化,期货逆势收涨

  • ⚑ SMM 氧化铝指数 2,689.77 元/吨,跌 0.58 元(8月12日为 2,692.88,两日累计 −3.11 元)。
  • 区域(8月14日):山东 2,695(2,660–2,730)、河南 2,730(2,700–2,760)、山西 2,720(2,690–2,750)、广西 2,615(2,580–2,650)、贵州 2,765(2,730–2,800)、连云港 2,865(2,770–2,960)。
  • ⚑ 对照 8月12日:山东、河南、山西、广西各跌 5 元,贵州与连云港持平——在连续两日“全区域零变动”之后,首次出现区域性下调。
  • ⚑ 澳洲氧化铝 FOB 349 美元/吨,涨 1 美元(前值 347);8月14日海外成交:3 万吨以 374 美元/吨 CFR 马来西亚成交(8月船期);10 月船期报 360 美元/吨 FOB 西澳、358 美元/吨 FOB 东澳。
  • ⚑ SMM 8月13日周度评述直接给出框架:巴西减产与海外价格走强构成支撑,而国内氧化铝仍偏弱,内外分化持续。
  • AO2610(8月13日):开 2,717、高 2,719、低 2,666,收 2,680;结算 2,685(较前结算价 −35、较前收盘价 −31);成交 180,221 手,持仓 274,689(+35,188)。品种合计持仓 560,505(+33,771)。
  • ⚑ AO2610(8月14日):开 2,674、高 2,711、低 2,674,收 2,696;结算 2,688;较结算价 +11、较前收盘价 +16——在沪铝下跌 205 元的同一交易日收涨;成交 165,127 手,持仓 269,518(−5,171)。
  • AO2609(8月14日)收 2,696(较结算价 +4、较前收盘价 +9),持仓 103,710(−10,017);AO2701 收 2,753(+14);品种合计持仓 545,049(−15,456)。
  • 夜盘:AO2610 开 2,695、高 2,710、低 2,683,持仓 275,526(+6,008);品种合计夜盘持仓 549,822(+4,773)。
  • 行业平均完全成本约 2,530 元/吨(延续)。

铝合金与其他

  • AD2610:8月13日收 23,395(较结算价 −275、较前收盘价 −250);8月14日开 23,385、高 23,435、低 23,070、收 23,135(较结算价 −320、较前收盘价 −260);持仓 18,280(−1,179)。
  • ⚑ AD2610 两日累计下跌 510 元(−2.16%),跌幅大于原铝。AD2609 8月14日收 23,110;品种合计持仓 24,821(−1,435)。夜盘 AD2610 开 23,170、高 23,270、低 23,135。
  • ADC12(SMM 周度口径):周初 24,400 元/吨,周中后段 24,200 元/吨,周环比变化不大;海外报价 3,090–3,120 美元/吨;⚑ 进口亏损已超过 1,000 元/吨(此前口径为 800–827 元)。
  • 废铝价差:A00 与免漆破碎生铝价差 2,310 元/吨、与破碎料价差 1,210 元/吨;进口破碎料宁波 21,770 元、天津 21,820 元(含税)。
  • 原油:Brent 8月14日收 88.52 美元(一口径 +1.7%);Brent 与 WTI 全周均涨逾 5% ⊘(日涨幅与 8月13日 87.92 美元的口径不作调和,两者并列记录);WTI 约 82 美元。
  • 美元指数 99.608,跌 0.36%(8月13日 99.940、8月12日 99.828);⊘ 另有日内口径称自低点反弹至 99.64。

解读:昨日两项检验的答案,一项通过、一项部分证伪

  • ⚑ 基差检验(问题一):部分证伪。+115 → +15 → −30,升水确已消失;但并未如设定的替代情形那样回到 −100/−120,且 SMM 华南成交口径仍为 60–100 元升水、主流报价由 −30/−10 改善至 −10/0。
  • ⚑ 因此本简报 8月13日的结论应部分保留:8月12日的 +115 升水主要是 10:30 定价时点遇上期货冲高 24,470 的产物——这一点被证实;但其下方的现货市场确比一周前的深贴水状态更紧(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝一栏出现本序列首次“氧化铝领涨、原铝领跌”:AO2610 收涨 16 元而 AL2609 跌 205 元。配合澳洲 FOB 涨 1 美元至 349、海外 374 美元 CFR 成交,而国内指数跌至 2,689.77、四区域各下调 5 元——内外分化在数据上是明确的,而非叙事。
  • 铝合金跌幅大于原铝(−2.16% 对 −1.65%),叠加铸造铝合金锭社库转增,再生铝一栏是本期最弱的板块(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 中国:周四印记跌破 90 万吨,且为本序列最大周四降幅

  • ⚑ 8月13日(周四)铝锭社会库存 89.8 万吨(898,000 吨,SMM 口径)。
  • ⚑ 较 8月6日(周四)93.3 万吨减 3.5 万吨——为本序列最大的周四对周四降幅(前一周为 −2.0 万吨);较 8月10日(周一)91.7 万吨再减 1.9 万吨。
  • ⚑ 首次跌破 90 万吨。周四序列:95.3(7月30日)→ 93.3(8月6日)→ 89.8 万吨(8月13日)。周一序列:97.9(7月27日)→ 95.8(8月3日)→ 91.7 万吨(8月10日)。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金锭社会库存转为累库:8月13日 25,500 吨,周增 1,500 吨——终结连续十周去库(累计 −38,900 吨)。SMM 归因:高温淡季、下游需求偏弱、出货不畅;期现价差走弱且期货升水,使贸易商逢低买入意愿上升、入库量增加;并预计短期继续累库,因需求尚未见明显恢复。
  • ⊘ 8月13日铝棒社会库存印记未取得;最后数值为 8月10日 13.25 万吨(周一口径周增 1.05 万吨,另一口径约 4,000 吨,冲突)。

⚑ LME 与其他

  • ⚑ LME 铝库存 8月13日 250,000 吨(−1,700)、8月14日 248,300 吨(−1,700)——连续第 34 个交易日下降,全周减 8,100 吨,首次跌破 25 万吨。
  • ⊘ 注销仓单/在库仓单拆分自 8月6日口径起未更新(注销 13,250 吨,−10.17%;在库 244,650 吨),现已滞后九个交易日。
  • ⊘ 8月13日与 8月14日上期所铝仓单均未取得;最后确认为 8月7日 307,008 吨(日 −1,795、周 −13,216、月 −87,020 或 −22.08%)。
  • 全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(周增 2.4 万吨,延续);港口铝土矿 94 万吨(延续);氧化铝厂铝土矿库存约 96 天;当周中国铝土矿到港 522.67 万吨。

解读

  • ⚑ 库存一栏是本期唯一“无保留通过”的多头证据:中国去库加速并跌破 90 万吨,LME 连续第 34 日去库并跌破 25 万吨,两者方向一致。
  • 但需并列记录一项反向变化:铸造铝合金锭社库十一周来首次转增——这是需求侧、而非供应侧的读数,且发生在旺季之前(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 库存与价格在本期背离:两个交易日内库存证据转强、价格下跌 400 元——这本身即说明定价权不在库存一栏(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美国:连续第四、第五项偏鸽数据,美元终于走弱

  • ⚑ 7 月零售销售环比 −0.6%(预期 +0.1%),为 2025 年 5 月以来最差;扣除汽车与汽油环比 −0.2%,同比仍 +5.0%。
  • ⚑ 该数据于纽约时间 8月14日 08:30 公布,即北京时间 20:30——距 SHFE 夜盘开盘仅 30 分钟。
  • ⚑ 密歇根大学 8 月消费者信心初值 51.0(前值 55.2,预期 54.5)。
  • 8月13日(延续):PPI 整体环比持平、核心 +0.4%;初请失业金 209,000 人。
  • ⚑ 9 月加息概率降至约 29%(周四夜间约 34%,8月12日 CPI 后约 42%,一周前约 55%);⊘ 另一口径为约 33%(一周前接近 50%),两者并列不作调和。下次 FOMC:9月15–16日。
  • ⚑ 美元指数 99.608,跌 0.36%——本序列首次明确走弱(8月13日 99.940、8月12日 99.828);⊘ 另有日内口径 99.64。
  • 美债:2 年期 4.16%(数据前),数据后走强;10 年期 4.65%(数据前),数据后走强。

⚑ 地缘与能源:封锁“无限期”,免费通行窗口明日到期

  • Brent 收 88.52 美元,全周与 WTI 同步上涨逾 5%;WTI 约 82 美元。
  • ⚑ 8月13日(周四),两艘阿布扎比国家石油公司(ADNOC)油轮在通过霍尔木兹海峡时遭无人机袭击;英方军事通报称损伤轻微;阿联酋外交部直接指认伊朗,称其为革命卫队的海盗行为。
  • ⚑ 美国国防部长赫格塞斯称对伊朗港口的海上封锁可无限期持续;财政部长贝森特称下周将宣布“史无前例的经济孤立”措施。伊朗央行行长称该国将很快加入金砖国家新开发银行。
  • ⚑ 6月17日备忘录下的免费通行窗口仍于 8月16日前后到期——即明日。
  • 延续:海峡日均通行量约 700–900 万桶(战前 2,000 万桶);IEA 预计本季度短缺 180 万桶/日;美国战略石油储备为 1983 年以来最低;OPEC+ 核心七国自 9 月起增产 18.8 万桶/日。

中国(延续 / 待发布)

  • 延续:7 月 CPI 同比 +0.5%(预期 +0.8%);7 月出口同比 +23%,顺差 1,125 亿美元;7 月统计局与财新制造业 PMI 均为 49.2。
  • ⊘ 7 月经济活动数据(工业增加值、社零、固定资产投资、房地产)于 8月15/17日窗口发布,写稿时尚未公布;市场预期口径为工业增加值同比 +4.8%、社零 +1.8%,以及 1–7 月房地产投资同比 −6.4%、新开工 −36.1%——以上为未确认的预期口径,不得视为已公布数据。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期宏观一栏明确利多,且是八个交易日内的第四、第五项偏鸽数据(非农 −2.3 万 → CPI 符合 → PPI 持平 → 零售 −0.6% → 密大 51.0)。
  • ⚑ 更关键的是美元终于跟随:在 8月12日与 8月13日两次“数据偏鸽而美元不跌”之后,8月14日 DXY 下跌 0.36%——利率与汇率的传导终于对齐(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 然而铝价在同一窗口下跌 400 元。本简报 8月12日提出、8月13日以反例确认的判断继续成立:当前铝的定价函数以供应端为主,宏观权重下降(此为解读)。
  • 能源一栏对铝的作用是成本与情绪的双向:油价上涨与封锁延长支持成本叙事,但同时也是压制下游与全球需求的因素(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 供应(一):EGA Al Taweelah 以 18% 产能运行,2027 年一季度恢复战前产能

  • ⚑ 8月12日,阿联酋环球铝业(EGA)随 2026 年半年报披露:Al Taweelah 冶炼厂目前以产能的 18% 运行,预计 2027 年一季度恢复至战前产能。
  • 修复资本开支 15 亿迪拉姆,其中大部分于今年支出;全厂基础公用工程已恢复,天然气与电力供应将随复产进度同步爬坡;Al Taweelah 再生铝厂目前以 10% 产能运行,预计 2026 年底满产。
  • 该厂于 3月28日因伊朗对阿布扎比哈利法经济区的导弹与无人机袭击被迫紧急停产。
  • ⚑ SMM 8月14日自身评述给出同一数字的另一表述:1,262 台电解槽中已复产 18%,并称复产节奏快于市场此前预期,明确点名其压制了交易者此前支付的供应紧张溢价。
  • ⚑ 对照本简报延续口径:7月2日为 1,262 台中复产 89 台(约 7%)——六周内由约 7% 升至 18%。
  • 路透系报道直接以“EGA 重申产量恢复时间表致铝价下跌”为标题。

⚑ 供应(二):Tomago 获 25 亿澳元支持,澳洲最大冶炼厂免于关停

  • ⚑ 8月13日,澳大利亚最大铝冶炼厂 Tomago 获得政府支持的一揽子方案,自 2029 年起十年内合计 25 亿澳元(约 18 亿美元),用于延续运营并为切换低排放电力争取时间。
  • ⚑ Tomago Aluminium 自身将投入 11 亿澳元,并承诺在电网高负荷时段削减用电。
  • 股权:力拓持股略超半数;Gove Aluminium Finance 与挪威海德鲁(Norsk Hydro ASA)持有其余股份。力拓此前表示,电力占 Tomago 运营成本 40% 以上。

供应(延续)

  • 挪威海德鲁巴西 Alunorte(产能 630 万吨/年,中国以外最大氧化铝厂)因供气商 CELBA 天然气供应中断,减产至产能的 50%;三季度影响估计 7,500 万–1 亿美元;尚无恢复时间表。
  • 卡塔尔 Qatalum 因天然气短缺停产;美铝将 2026 年氧化铝指引由 970–990 万吨下调至 950–960 万吨。
  • 中国:周度电解铝产量基本稳定,铝水比例上升;7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%,而铸锭产量同比 −15.1%;铝水比例 7 月 78.3%、8 月预计 78.5%;建成产能约 4,629 万吨,运行产能 4,531 万吨,4,500 万吨产能天花板约束日益刚性。
  • 中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%;一家机构估计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨。待复产:Slovalco(2026 年四季度)、密苏里某冶炼厂(年底)。
  • 铝土矿:SMM 进口铝土矿指数 71.72 美元/吨;几内亚 CIF 70–74 美元、8 月合约 73–74 美元、FOB 38–42 美元;几内亚至中国海运费约 35 美元/湿吨且呈上行;国内(8月7日口径)山西 530–550 元、河南 500–540 元、贵阳 490–540 元、广西 320–335 元;几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%。

需求

  • ⚑ SMM 8月14日下游发布:光伏边框开工率当周保持稳定;头部企业订单充足,足以维持高产至月末;组件采购策略未因近期铝价上涨而调整;边框企业短期无调整加工费计划;预计开工率继续平稳运行。
  • 延续:铝加工开工率 60.1% 且仍在下行;SMM 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个细分行业全部处于收缩区间;光伏组件排产 7 月 38.5GW、8 月 39.3GW;铝棒加工费回落,传统淡季替代性需求走弱。
  • ⊘ 再生铝口径仍冲突:SMM 8月12日发布的再生铝生产企业开工率 7 月为 34.6%,与此前延续的 49.4% 并列记录。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期基本面的核心变化是方向性的:过去两周本简报的供应叙事全部指向“减量”(Alunorte、Qatalum、美铝下调指引、海外产量同比 −6.7%);8月12–13日两项事件同时指向“增量或不减量”(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 两者的时间结构不同,这一点必须分开记录:EGA 的 18% → 100% 落在 2027 年一季度,Tomago 的十年支持自 2029 年起——均为远期供应曲线的修正,而非当下可交割吨位的增加(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 这与库存与曲线证据的方向恰好相反:LME 连续 34 日去库、曲线在下跌中转为升水、中国社库跌破 90 万吨——近端偏紧与远端偏松同时存在(此为解读)。
  • 氧化铝一栏亦呈同一结构:海外(巴西减产、澳洲 FOB 上行、374 美元 CFR 成交)偏紧,国内(指数下跌、四区域各降 5 元)偏松。

六 · 原铝现货市场

8月14日:价格与升贴水

  • SMM A00 23,870 元/吨(23,860–23,880),跌 250 元(−1.04%);8月13日 24,120 元/吨,跌 250 元(−1.03%)。
  • 九区域(8月14日):上海 23,870(−250)、无锡 23,860(−260)、杭州 23,900(−260)、中原 23,770(−250)、佛山 23,920(−280)、重庆 23,830(−250)、天津 23,920(−200)、临沂 23,920(−220)、沈阳 23,865(−145);南海 24,480(−280,8月13日口径)。
  • 推算基差:对 AL2608 收盘价 23,900 为 −30 元;对 AL2609 收盘价 23,885 为 −15 元。
  • ⚑ SMM 华南日评(8月14日):成交集中于对 SHFE 2608 合约升水 60–100 元;主流报价 −10 至 0 元。

⚑ SMM 对成交状况的描述(8月14日,华南)

  • “期货今日延续大幅下跌,华南现货市场清淡,仅小幅调整。”
  • 持货商早间尝试挺价;随着周末临近空头情绪酝酿、提前套现意愿逐步上升,多数卖方小幅下调报价至贴水。
  • 主流报价贴水 −10 至 0 元;货源相对充裕;部分卖方仍坚持升水、出货缓慢。
  • 下游买方初期观望等待更低价格,随后在下调后的价位逐步补库;整体成交量中性;贸易商主要寻找低价货源。
  • ⊘ 华东与华中出货/采购情绪指数 8月13日与 8月14日均未取得;8月11日数值延续(华东出货 3.16、采购 3.20;华中出货 3.06、采购 2.95),现已滞后三个交易日。

解读

  • ⚑ 与 8月12日的描述相比,卖方行为的性质发生了变化:8月12日为“急于出货套现、深贴水货源涌现、有价无市”;8月14日为“早间挺价、随后小幅下调、部分卖方仍坚持升水”。
  • ⚑ 买方行为亦然:8月12日为“仅维持基本的被动刚需采购”;8月14日为“初期观望,随后在下调后价位逐步补库”。
  • ⚑ 因此本期的判断是:成交情绪由“弱”修正为“中性偏观望”,下游在价格下跌后出现了被动补库(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 但需与库存一栏并读:社库加速去化至 89.8 万吨,而铸造铝合金锭社库转增——原铝端的实货偏紧与再生铝端的需求疲弱并存(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素(17 项)

  • ⚑ 周四社库 89.8 万吨,周减 3.5 万吨——本序列最大周四降幅,首次跌破 90 万吨。
  • ⚑ 社库较周一 91.7 万吨再减 1.9 万吨,连续三次印记降幅逐次扩大。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 248,300 吨,连续第 34 日下降,周减 8,100 吨,首次跌破 25 万吨。
  • ⚑ 现货对三个月价差由 −1.00 美元贴水转为 +4.00 / +2.00 美元升水,且发生在价格下跌之时。
  • ⚑ 9 月加息概率降至约 29%(一周前约 55%)。
  • ⚑ 美元指数跌 0.36% 至 99.608——本序列首次明确走弱。
  • ⚑ 美国 7 月零售 −0.6%、密大信心 51.0,加息路径进一步被削弱。
  • ⚑ Brent 88.52 美元,周涨逾 5%;封锁被称可“无限期”持续;免费通行窗口 8月16日前后到期。
  • ⚑ 两艘 ADNOC 油轮在霍尔木兹遭袭,地缘风险溢价重新累积。
  • ⚑ 澳洲氧化铝 FOB 涨至 349 美元;海外 374 美元 CFR 马来西亚成交,氧化铝成本端海外走强。
  • ⚑ AO2610 在沪铝下跌 205 元当日收涨 16 元——本序列首次氧化铝领涨。
  • Alunorte 维持 50% 产能运行,无恢复时间表(延续)。
  • Qatalum 停产;美铝下调 2026 年氧化铝指引至 950–960 万吨(延续)。
  • 中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%;机构估计 2026 年海外供应减少 98 万吨(延续)。
  • 中国 4,500 万吨产能天花板约束刚性,运行产能 4,531 万吨;7 月铸锭产量同比 −15.1%(延续)。
  • ⚑ 光伏边框开工率稳定、头部企业订单充足至月末,组件采购未因涨价而调整。
  • ⚑ 周五夜盘高开于收盘价与结算价之上,品种持仓增 12,655 手——本序列夜盘最大增仓。

利空因素(19 项)

  • ⚑ EGA Al Taweelah 以 18% 产能运行,2027 年一季度恢复战前产能,复产快于市场预期。
  • ⚑ Al Taweelah 再生铝厂 10% 产能运行,2026 年底满产。
  • ⚑ Tomago 获 25 亿澳元十年期支持,澳洲最大冶炼厂关停风险解除。
  • ⚑ 沪铝两个交易日下跌 400 元;周线 −155 元,收出外包反转。
  • ⚑ 8月14日收盘价失守 MA5(24,135.00)与 MA10(23,976.00)——后者为 7月27日以来首次。
  • ⚑ 收盘价失守旧核心区间下沿 23,900;SMM 将区间下调至 23,600–24,450。
  • ⚑ 伦铝三个交易日下跌 125 美元,现货低于 8月7日与 8月6日水平,为 8月5日以来最低。
  • ⚑ SMM 将伦铝区间下调至 3,180–3,330 美元(原 3,350–3,420)。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓在两个下跌日仍增加(+1,345、+2,577),更近似新空建仓而非多头了结。
  • ⚑ SMM A00 连续两日各跌 250 元;基差由 +115 收敛至 −30。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金锭社库转增至 25,500 吨(周增 1,500 吨),终结连续十周去库。
  • ⚑ AD2610 两日下跌 510 元(−2.16%),跌幅大于原铝。
  • ⚑ ADC12 由 24,400 元回落至 24,200 元;进口亏损扩大至超过 1,000 元/吨。
  • ⚑ 国内氧化铝指数跌至 2,689.77 元,山东、河南、山西、广西各下调 5 元。
  • 铝加工开工率 60.1% 且下行;7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2,七个细分行业全部收缩(延续)。
  • 再生铝生产企业 7 月开工率 34.6%(延续,口径冲突)。
  • 待复产产能:Slovalco(四季度)、密苏里冶炼厂(年底)(延续)。
  • 几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%;氧化铝厂铝土矿库存约 96 天(延续)。
  • ⊘ 中国 1–7 月房地产投资 −6.4%、新开工 −36.1%(未确认的预期口径)。

八 · 一句话观点

近端库存与曲线证据持续走强,而远期供应曲线被两项事件同时上修;铝价在失守 MA5、MA10 与旧区间下沿之后,短期更可能在 23,650(MA60)至 23,976(MA10)之间以震荡消化的方式运行,方向取决于周五夜盘的反弹能否在周一日盘被确认。

九 · 周一日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ AL2610 能否守住 23,850(夜盘低点)与 23,810(周五低点);若失守,下一参照为 23,650(MA60)与新区间下沿 23,600。
  • ⚑ AL2610 能否收复 23,976(MA10)与 24,000–24,005(夜盘高点);这是判断周五夜盘反弹属于修复还是反抽的唯一机械标准。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓的方向:若价格反弹而持仓继续增加,则为空头加仓被动;若价格反弹且持仓减少,则为空头回补(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货对三个月价差是否维持升水;升水在下跌中出现,若在反弹中扩大,则近端偏紧的读数成立。
  • ⚑ 伦铝 3,261(8月6日)与 3,275–3,279(8月13日)能否收复;下方参照为 3,236.72(MA20)与新区间下沿 3,180 美元。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝内外分化是否收敛:国内指数(2,689.77)与澳洲 FOB(349 美元)的方向是否同步,以及 AO2610 能否守住 2,674。
  • ⚑ 周一(8月17日)社库印记,以及中国 7 月经济活动数据(8月15/17日窗口);另需关注霍尔木兹免费通行窗口 8月16日前后到期,与贝森特预告的对伊制裁措施。

1 · Market Performance

The central fact: 400 yuan lost in two sessions, and an outside reversal on the week

  • AL2609 (August 13, SHFE’s own caliber, last-trade basis): open 24,300, high 24,335, low 24,055, CLOSE 24,090; settlement 24,160; −255 against the previous settlement of 24,345 (−1.05%) and −195 against the previous close of 24,285 (−0.80%). Volume 154,596 (−13,946); open interest 230,708 (−10,631).
  • AL2609 (August 14): open 24,145, high 24,170, low 23,810, CLOSE 23,885; settlement 23,945; −275 against the previous settlement of 24,160 (−1.14%) and −205 against the previous close of 24,090 (−0.85%). Volume 154,553; open interest 214,610 (−16,098).
  • ⚑ Across the two sessions the close has fallen 400 from 24,285 (−1.65%), and 660 (−2.70%) from the August 12 cycle high of 24,470 to the August 14 low of 23,810.
  • ⚑ On the week: −155 against August 7’s close of 24,040 (−0.64%), against +410 the week before. Week high 24,470 (Wednesday), week low 23,810 (Friday), a 660-point range — an outside reversal week.

⚑ The moving-average caliber is refreshed to this brief’s own this edition, and MA5 and MA10 are lost

  • The averages below are computed here, from SHFE’s own daily files, main-contract closes, ninety trading sessions (April 7 to August 14) — they replace the five-session-stale SMM values carried previously.
  • MA5 24,135.00, MA10 23,976.00, MA20 23,640.75, MA30 23,456.33, MA40 23,347.50, MA60 23,650.00.
  • ⚑ Against those, the August 14 close of 23,885 sits 250.00 BELOW MA5 (−1.04%) and 91.00 BELOW MA10 (−0.38%), while holding +244.25 over MA20 (+1.03%), +428.67 over MA30, +537.50 over MA40 (+2.30%) and +235.00 over MA60 (+0.99%).
  • ⚑ August 13 was already the first close below MA5 since July 28 (24,090 against that session’s MA5 of 24,166.00); August 14 is the first close below MA10 since July 27, when 23,195 printed against an MA10 of 23,204.00.
  • The twenty-session close range is 23,010–24,285; the sixty-session range is 22,370–24,825.
  • ⚑ SMM CUT its own expected range on August 14 to 23,600–24,450 (from a 23,900–24,500 core band); the close of 23,885 therefore sits below the old floor and 285 above the new one.

The rest of the curve: the roll completes, and product open interest builds anyway

  • AL2608 (August 14): open 24,105, high 24,105, low 23,800, close 23,900; settlement 23,940 (−215 on the previous settlement); open interest 15,050 (−520).
  • AL2610 (August 14): open 24,100, high 24,170, low 23,795, close 23,885; settlement 23,945 (−275 on settlement); volume 119,978; open interest 228,180 (+7,109).
  • ⚑ AL2610’s open interest has OVERTAKEN AL2609’s: 228,180 against 214,610. A gap of 26,839 in AL2609’s favour on August 12 is now 13,570 in AL2610’s favour — the roll is done.
  • AL2611 close 23,845 (−275), open interest 68,018 (+6,026); AL2612 close 23,805 (−305), open interest 54,370 (+1,294); AL2701 close 23,775 (−260), open interest 31,006 (+3,399).
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest: 637,120 (+1,345) on August 13 and 639,697 (+2,577) on August 14 — a third consecutive build, delivered across two sessions that fell a combined 400 yuan.
  • Volume 304,977 then 328,544.

⚑ The Friday night session: opens above both the close and the settlement, on the largest night build of the sequence

  • The session opened 21:00 on August 14 and belongs to the Monday August 17 trading day; file kx20260817.dat, update stamp 20260815 08:52:03.
  • AL2609: open 23,960, high 24,000, low 23,835; volume 60,643; open interest 206,075 (−8,535).
  • AL2610: open 23,975, high 24,005, low 23,850; volume 64,456; open interest 243,284 (+15,104).
  • AL2608: open 23,905, high 23,920, low 23,820; open interest 15,060 (+10). AL2611 open 23,955 (OI +4,717); AL2701 open 23,830 (OI +721).
  • ⚑ Against their own day-session CLOSES the three opened +5 / +75 / +90; against SETTLEMENTS, AL2608 −35 but AL2609 +15 and AL2610 +30 — the first time since August 11 that the two actives opened above both references.
  • ⚑ Whole-product night open interest 652,352, UP 12,655 — the largest night build recorded in this sequence; volume 151,099.
  • ⚑ The night low of 23,835 sits 25 ABOVE Friday’s day low of 23,810 — the low was not taken out.

⚑ LME: three sessions and $125, but the curve flips back to backwardation

  • Official / Westmetall caliber: August 13 cash $3,279.00 (−$28.50), three-month $3,275.00 (−$33.50); August 14 cash $3,248.00 (−$31.00), three-month $3,246.00 (−$29.00).
  • ⚑ Cash is $125.00 below the August 11 peak of $3,373.00 (−3.71%); on the week, cash −$31.50 (−0.96%) and three-month −$34.00 (−1.04%).
  • ⚑ Cash now sits below the August 7 close of $3,279.50 AND the August 6 close of $3,261.00 — the lowest cash settlement since August 5’s $3,229.00.
  • ⚑ The cash-to-three-month spread flipped OUT of contango and back into BACKWARDATION: −$1.00 on August 12 → +$4.00 on August 13 → +$2.00 on August 14 — and it tightened while the flat price fell $59.50 across the same two sessions.
  • This brief’s own LME caliber (Westmetall cash settlements, sixty-one sessions): MA5 $3,307.00, MA10 $3,283.55, MA20 $3,236.72, MA40 $3,195.09, MA60 $3,337.01. Cash sits $59.00 below MA5, $35.55 below MA10 and $89.01 below MA60, while holding $11.28 over MA20 and $52.91 over MA40.
  • ⚑ SMM cut its LME band in the same release to $3,180–3,330 (from $3,350–3,420); cash at $3,248 sits inside it, $68 above the floor.
  • ⊘ A TradingEconomics caliber is recorded without reconciliation: $3,247.70 on August 14 (+$6.20, +0.19%) against a stated previous close of $3,241.50; month +3.18%, year +24.74%; the Q3 forecast holds at $3,377.15 and the twelve-month at $3,580.89 — unchanged after the August 12 cut, so no further revision.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Where the price sits: this is a pullback area, not a high area. Between the cycle high of 24,470 and Friday’s low of 23,810, the close of 23,885 sits near the bottom of a 660-point range; measured against the twenty-, forty- and sixty-session averages it is still an elevated level (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The open-interest shape is the most important mechanical reading of this edition. AL2609 shed 10,631 and then 16,098, which looks like longs leaving until you look one contract out: AL2610 built 6,571 and then 7,109 and overtook the front month, and whole-product open interest built on both down days. That is closer to fresh shorts being placed and rolled forward than to long liquidation (this is interpretation).
  • Three references were lost in two sessions: MA5, MA10 and the old band floor at 23,900. The next observed references below are 23,810 (Friday’s low) and 23,650 (MA60).
  • ⚑ The LME column carries a signal that directly contradicts its own flat price: the curve tightened from contango into backwardation while the price fell. A genuine surplus does not tighten the nearby (this is interpretation).

⚑ Spot: 250 yuan lost on each of two sessions, and the premium is given back without a snap-back

  • SMM A00 aluminium ingot: August 13 24,120 yuan/mt (range 24,110–24,130), −250 (−1.03%); August 14 23,870 yuan/mt (range 23,860–23,880), −250 (−1.04%).
  • SMM’s weekly caliber: A00 averaged 24,145 yuan/mt, up about 2% week-on-week, with the August 13 close +320 against the previous week.
  • ⚑ Computed basis: against AL2608’s close of 23,900, A00 at 23,870 implies a −30 DISCOUNT on August 14; +15 on August 13 (24,120 against 24,105); +115 on August 12. Against AL2609’s close of 23,885 the August 14 basis is −15.
  • ⚑ But it did NOT return to the −100/−120 band of August 10–11, and SMM’s own August 14 South China review still places transactions at a PREMIUM of 60–100 against the SHFE 2608 contract, with mainstream quotations at −10 to 0 — an improvement on the −30 to −10 of August 12.
  • ⚑ The full SMM nine-region table for August 14 was retrieved this edition: Shanghai 23,870 (−250), Wuxi 23,860 (−260), Hangzhou 23,900 (−260), Zhongyuan 23,770 (−250), Foshan 23,920 (−280), Chongqing 23,830 (−250), Tianjin 23,920 (−200), Linyi 23,920 (−220), Shenyang 23,865 (−145); Nanhai 24,480 (−280) is the August 13 caliber.

⚑ Alumina: the market splits internal from external, and the futures close higher as aluminium falls

  • ⚑ SMM alumina index 2,689.77 yuan/mt, DOWN 0.58 (2,692.88 on August 12 — a 3.11-yuan decline across the two sessions).
  • Regional (August 14): Shandong 2,695 (2,660–2,730), Henan 2,730 (2,700–2,760), Shanxi 2,720 (2,690–2,750), Guangxi 2,615 (2,580–2,650), Guizhou 2,765 (2,730–2,800), Lianyungang 2,865 (2,770–2,960).
  • ⚑ Against the August 12 caliber: Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Guangxi are each DOWN 5 yuan; Guizhou and Lianyungang unchanged — the first regional cuts after two consecutive sessions of every-region-flat.
  • ⚑ Australian alumina FOB $349/mt, UP $1 (from $347); on August 14, 30,000 mt traded at $374/mt CFR Malaysia for August shipment, with $360/mt FOB WA and $358/mt FOB EA quoted for October shipment.
  • ⚑ SMM’s own August 13 weekly assessment states the frame directly: Brazilian production cuts and stronger overseas prices provide support, while domestic alumina remains weak, with persistent internal-external divergence.
  • AO2610 (August 13): open 2,717, high 2,719, low 2,666, close 2,680; settlement 2,685 (−35 on settlement, −31 on the previous close); volume 180,221; open interest 274,689 (+35,188). Product open interest 560,505 (+33,771).
  • ⚑ AO2610 (August 14): open 2,674, high 2,711, low 2,674, close 2,696; settlement 2,688; +11 on settlement and +16 on the previous close — higher on the same session that AL2609 fell 205; volume 165,127; open interest 269,518 (−5,171).
  • AO2609 (August 14) close 2,696 (+4 on settlement, +9 on the close), open interest 103,710 (−10,017); AO2701 close 2,753 (+14); product open interest 545,049 (−15,456).
  • Night session: AO2610 open 2,695, high 2,710, low 2,683, open interest 275,526 (+6,008); alumina product night open interest 549,822 (+4,773).
  • Industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt (carried).

Alloy and others

  • AD2610: August 13 close 23,395 (−275 on settlement, −250 on the previous close); August 14 open 23,385, high 23,435, low 23,070, close 23,135 (−320 on settlement, −260 on the close); open interest 18,280 (−1,179).
  • ⚑ AD2610 has fallen 510 yuan (−2.16%) across the two sessions — a steeper decline than primary. AD2609 August 14 close 23,110; alloy product open interest 24,821 (−1,435). Night session AD2610 open 23,170, high 23,270, low 23,135.
  • ADC12 (SMM weekly caliber): 24,400 yuan/mt early in the week and 24,200 mid-to-late week, little changed week-on-week; overseas offers $3,090–3,120/mt; ⚑ import losses now EXCEED 1,000 yuan/mt (against the 800–827 carried previously).
  • Scrap spreads: A00 against paint-free mixed extrusion scrap 2,310 yuan/mt and against shredded tense scrap 1,210 yuan/mt; imported shredded zorba 21,770 at Ningbo and 21,820 at Tianjin, tax-inclusive.
  • Crude: Brent closed $88.52 on August 14 (+1.7% on one caliber); Brent and WTI both gained more than 5% on the week ⊘ (the daily percentage is not reconciled against the $87.92 August 13 caliber; both are recorded). WTI near $82.
  • US dollar index 99.608, −0.36% (99.940 on August 13, 99.828 on August 12); ⊘ a separate intraday caliber has it bouncing off session lows to 99.64.

Interpretation: yesterday’s two tests, one passed and one partially falsified

  • ⚑ The basis test (question one): PARTIALLY FALSIFIED. +115 → +15 → −30 — the premium is gone; but it did not return to the −100/−120 band this brief named as the alternative, and SMM’s own South China transaction caliber still reads 60–100 premium with mainstream quotes improving from −30/−10 to −10/0.
  • ⚑ So the August 13 conclusion should be partly retained: the +115 premium was principally the 10:30 fix meeting a spike toward 24,470 — that is confirmed — but the physical market underneath it is genuinely firmer than the deep-discount regime of a week ago (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The alumina column produced the first ‘alumina leads higher while aluminium leads lower’ session of this sequence: AO2610 +16 against AL2609 −205. Combined with Australian FOB +$1 to $349 and a $374 CFR Malaysia trade against a domestic index falling to 2,689.77 with four regions cut 5 yuan each, the internal-external divergence is visible in the data, not just in the narrative.
  • Alloy fell harder than primary (−2.16% against −1.65%) and cast-alloy social inventory turned to buildup, which makes secondary the weakest column of this edition (this is interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ China: the Thursday print breaks 900,000 mt on the steepest Thursday draw of the series

  • ⚑ Aluminium ingot social inventory, Thursday August 13: 898,000 mt (SMM caliber, published as 89.8万吨).
  • ⚑ DOWN 35,000 mt against Thursday August 6’s 933,000 — the steepest Thursday-to-Thursday draw of the series (the previous Thursday drew 20,000) — and DOWN 19,000 mt against Monday August 10’s 917,000.
  • ⚑ The first print below 900,000 mt. Thursday series: 953,000 (Jul 30) → 933,000 (Aug 6) → 898,000 (Aug 13). Monday series: 979,000 (Jul 27) → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 917,000 (Aug 10).
  • ⚑ Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory TURNED: 25,500 mt on August 13, UP 1,500 mt week-on-week — ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that had run a cumulative 38,900 mt. SMM attributes it to the high-temperature off-season, weak downstream demand and sluggish shipments, plus a weakened spot-futures spread with futures at a premium that pulled spot-futures traders in to buy dips and raised warehouse inflows; it expects further buildup because demand has yet to recover visibly.
  • ⊘ The aluminium billet print for August 13 was not retrievable; the last figure stands at 132,500 mt on August 10 (+10,500 w/w on the Monday caliber, against a separate SMM caliber near 4,000 mt, unreconciled).

⚑ LME and others

  • ⚑ LME aluminium stocks 250,000 mt on August 13 (−1,700) and 248,300 mt on August 14 (−1,700) — a thirty-fourth consecutive draw, −8,100 mt on the week, and the first print below 250,000 mt.
  • ⊘ The cancelled/live warrant split has not refreshed since the August 6 caliber (cancelled 13,250 mt, −10.17%; live 244,650 mt) and is now nine sessions stale.
  • ⊘ SHFE aluminium warrants were not retrievable for either August 13 or August 14; last confirmed 307,008 mt on August 7 (−1,795 d/d, −13,216 w/w, −87,020 or −22.08% m/m).
  • National alumina inventory 7.028 Mt (+24,000 w/w, carried); port bauxite 940,000 mt (carried); alumina refinery bauxite inventory approximately 96 days; weekly China bauxite arrivals 5.2267 Mt.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Inventory is the one column that passed without qualification this edition: China destocking accelerated through 900,000 mt and LME drew for a thirty-fourth session through 250,000 mt — both in the same direction.
  • One opposing change must be recorded alongside it: cast-alloy social inventory turned positive for the first time in eleven weeks — that is a demand-side reading rather than a supply-side one, and it arrives before the seasonal recovery (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Inventory and price DIVERGED across the window: the inventory evidence strengthened while the price fell 400 yuan — which by itself establishes that the pricing function was not in this column (this is interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ United States: the fourth and fifth consecutive dovish prints, and the dollar finally breaks

  • ⚑ July retail sales −0.6% m/m (against +0.1% expected), the steepest monthly decline since May 2025; ex-autos-and-gasoline −0.2% m/m, still +5.0% y/y.
  • ⚑ The release landed 08:30 New York on August 14, which is 20:30 Beijing — thirty minutes before the SHFE night session opened.
  • ⚑ University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment 51.0 (55.2 prior, 54.5 expected).
  • August 13 (carried): PPI flat on the headline with core +0.4%; initial claims 209,000.
  • ⚑ September hike odds fell to roughly 29% (about 34% Thursday night, about 42% after the August 12 CPI, about 55% a week ago); ⊘ a separate caliber reads about 33% against nearly 50% a week ago, and both are recorded. Next FOMC September 15–16.
  • ⚑ US dollar index 99.608, −0.36% — the first clear decline of this sequence (99.940 on August 13, 99.828 on August 12); ⊘ a separate intraday caliber reads 99.64.
  • Treasuries: 2-year 4.16% into the print and bid after; 10-year 4.65% pre-data and richer post.

⚑ Geopolitics and energy: the blockade goes ‘indefinite’, and the fee-free window expires tomorrow

  • Brent closed $88.52, with Brent and WTI both up more than 5% on the week; WTI near $82.
  • ⚑ On Thursday August 13, two tankers owned by ADNOC were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz; British military reporting described the damage as minor; the UAE foreign ministry blamed Iran directly and called the strikes acts of piracy by the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
  • ⚑ US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the naval blockade of Iran’s ports can run indefinitely; Treasury Secretary Bessent said measures amounting to economic isolation of a kind never seen in history will be announced next week. Iran’s central bank governor said the country will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank.
  • ⚑ The fee-free transit window under the June 17 memorandum still expires around August 16 — tomorrow.
  • Carried: transits average roughly 7–9 million bpd against a pre-war 20 million; the IEA projects a 1.8 million bpd shortfall this quarter; the US SPR is at its lowest since 1983; OPEC+ core seven raise output 188,000 bpd from September.

China (carried / pending)

  • Carried: July CPI +0.5% y/y against +0.8% expected; July exports +23% y/y with a $112.5 billion surplus; NBS and Caixin July manufacturing PMIs both 49.2.
  • ⊘ China’s July activity data — industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property — falls in the August 15/17 window and was NOT released at the time of writing; a pre-release consensus caliber of industrial output +4.8% y/y and retail sales +1.8%, with Jan-July property investment −6.4% y/y and new starts −36.1% y/y, is recorded as UNCONFIRMED and must not be treated as printed data.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The macro column is clearly bullish this edition, and it is the fourth and fifth dovish print in eight sessions (payrolls −23,000 → CPI in line → PPI flat → retail sales −0.6% → Michigan 51.0).
  • ⚑ More important, the dollar finally followed: after two sessions of refusing to fall on dovish news, DXY dropped 0.36% on August 14 — the rates-to-currency transmission has re-aligned (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ And aluminum fell 400 yuan across the same window. The judgement this brief made on August 12 and confirmed by counter-example on August 13 continues to hold: aluminum’s pricing function is currently supply-led, with macro carrying reduced weight (this is interpretation).
  • The energy column cuts both ways for aluminum: higher crude and a longer blockade support the cost narrative, but they are also a drag on downstream and global demand (this is interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Supply (i): EGA’s Al Taweelah runs at 18% of capacity and targets pre-war capacity by Q1 2027

  • ⚑ On August 12, alongside its H1 2026 results, Emirates Global Aluminium said its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi is running at 18% OF CAPACITY and expects to reach pre-war capacity by Q1 2027.
  • Restoration capex is AED 1.5 billion with most of it spent this year; basic utilities have been restored across the site, with natural gas and electricity availability projected to ramp in line with the restart programme; and the Al Taweelah recycling plant is at 10% of capacity, with full production expected by end-2026.
  • The plant was force-shut on March 28 after Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi.
  • ⚑ SMM’s own August 14 note states the same figure as 18% of the plant’s 1,262 electrolysis cells restarted, calls the pace faster than the market had previously expected, and explicitly names it as the item pressuring the supply-tightness premium traders had been paying.
  • ⚑ Against this brief’s carried caliber — 89 of 1,262 pots, roughly 7%, as of July 2 — the ramp has gone from about 7% to 18% in six weeks.
  • Reuters-sourced coverage headlined the metal’s move directly as aluminium falling on EGA reaffirming its output recovery timeline.

⚑ Supply (ii): Tomago secures A$2.5 billion, and Australia’s largest smelter is taken off the closure list

  • ⚑ On August 13, Tomago, Australia’s largest aluminium smelter, secured a government-backed package of A$2.5 billion (about US$1.8 billion) over a decade from 2029, structured to extend operations and give the plant time to switch to lower-emission electricity.
  • ⚑ Tomago Aluminium, the venture that runs the plant, will itself invest A$1.1 billion and will cut power consumption at times of high grid demand.
  • Ownership: Rio Tinto owns slightly more than half the New South Wales plant; Gove Aluminium Finance and Norsk Hydro ASA hold the remaining stakes. Rio has previously said electricity accounts for more than 40% of Tomago’s operating costs.

Supply (carried)

  • Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte in Pará, Brazil — capacity 6.3 Mt/yr, the largest alumina refinery outside China — remains cut to 50% of capacity after gas supplier CELBA disrupted natural gas availability; estimated Q3 impact $75–100 million; no restoration date.
  • Qatalum in Qatar shut on natural gas shortages; Alcoa cut 2026 alumina guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt from 9.7–9.9 Mt.
  • China: weekly electrolytic aluminium output basically stable with the liquid-aluminium proportion rising; July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m, with casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; liquid proportion 78.3% in July and 78.5% forecast for August; built capacity approximately 46.29 Mt against operating capacity 45.31 Mt, with the 45 Mt cap increasingly binding.
  • Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; one house estimates overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026. Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 2026 and a Missouri smelter at year-end.
  • Bauxite: SMM imported bauxite index $71.72/mt; Guinea CIF $70–74, August contract $73–74, FOB $38–42; Guinea-to-China freight approximately $35/dmt and rising; domestic as of August 7 — Shanxi 530–550 yuan/mt, Henan 500–540, Guiyang 490–540, Guangxi 320–335; Guinea exported a record 114.8 Mt of bauxite in H1 2026, +15% y/y.

Demand

  • ⚑ SMM’s August 14 downstream release: PV FRAME operating rates held STABLE through the week; leading enterprises hold ample orders sufficient to maintain high production through month-end; PV module buyers kept procurement strategies unchanged despite the recent aluminium price increase; frame enterprises have no short-term plans to adjust processing fees; rates are expected to continue running steady.
  • Carried: processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting; PV module scheduled output 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August; billet processing fees pulled back and replacement demand weakened in the traditional off-season.
  • ⊘ The secondary caliber still conflicts: SMM’s August 12 release puts the operating rate of secondary aluminium PRODUCERS at 34.6% in July, against the 49.4% secondary aluminium figure carried previously; both are recorded.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The directional change in fundamentals is the story of this edition: for two weeks every supply item in this brief pointed to LESS metal (Alunorte, Qatalum, Alcoa’s guidance cut, ex-China output −6.7% y/y); on August 12 and 13 two events pointed the other way at once (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Their time structure differs, and that must be recorded separately: EGA’s 18%-to-100% path lands in Q1 2027, and Tomago’s support runs from 2029 — both are revisions to the forward supply curve, not additions to deliverable tonnes today (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ That is the exact opposite of what the inventory and curve evidence says: a thirty-fourth consecutive LME draw, a curve that tightened into backwardation while falling, and a Chinese social inventory through 900,000 mt — the nearby is tight and the forward is looser at the same time (this is interpretation).
  • The alumina column has the same shape: overseas tight (Brazilian cuts, Australian FOB rising, $374 CFR Malaysia trading) and domestic loose (index falling, four regions cut 5 yuan each).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

August 14: price and premium/discount

  • SMM A00 23,870 yuan/mt (23,860–23,880), −250 (−1.04%); August 13 24,120 yuan/mt, −250 (−1.03%).
  • Nine regions (August 14): Shanghai 23,870 (−250), Wuxi 23,860 (−260), Hangzhou 23,900 (−260), Zhongyuan 23,770 (−250), Foshan 23,920 (−280), Chongqing 23,830 (−250), Tianjin 23,920 (−200), Linyi 23,920 (−220), Shenyang 23,865 (−145); Nanhai 24,480 (−280, August 13 caliber).
  • Computed basis: −30 against AL2608’s close of 23,900; −15 against AL2609’s close of 23,885.
  • ⚑ SMM South China daily review (August 14): transactions concentrated at a PREMIUM of 60–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2608 contract; mainstream quotations at −10 to 0.

⚑ SMM’s own description of trading conditions (August 14, South China)

  • ‘Futures extended sharp losses today, while South China spot aluminum was in the doldrums and adjusted only slightly.’
  • Holders initially tried to sell at FIRM prices in the morning; as bearish sentiment brewed near the weekend and the willingness to cash out early gradually increased, most sellers lowered prices slightly to offer discounts.
  • Mainstream quotations at discounts of −10 to 0 yuan/mt; supply relatively ample; some sellers still held premiums and sold slowly.
  • Downstream buyers initially avoided purchases anticipating lower prices, then gradually restocked at reduced levels; trading volumes remained moderate overall; traders mainly sought discounted inventory.
  • ⊘ The East China and Central China shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable for either August 13 or August 14; the August 11 values are carried (East China shipment 3.16, purchasing 3.20; Central China shipment 3.06, purchasing 2.95) and are now three sessions stale.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Compared with August 12, the character of seller behaviour has changed: August 12 read ‘holders rushed to sell and cash out, deeply discounted cargoes flooded the market, offers with few actual deals’; August 14 reads ‘holders tried firm prices in the morning, then lowered slightly, and some sellers still held premiums.’
  • ⚑ Buyer behaviour changed too: August 12 read ‘basic passive just-in-time purchases only’; August 14 reads ‘initially avoided purchases anticipating lower prices, then gradually restocked at reduced levels.’
  • ⚑ The reading this edition is therefore that transaction sentiment has moved from WEAK to NEUTRAL-to-WAIT-AND-SEE, with genuine passive restocking appearing after the price fell (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ But it must be read against the inventory column: social inventory accelerated to 898,000 mt while cast-alloy inventory turned to buildup — a tight physical market in primary coexisting with weak demand in secondary (this is interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (17)

  • ⚑ Thursday social inventory 898,000 mt, −35,000 w/w — the steepest Thursday draw of the series and the first print under 900,000 mt.
  • ⚑ Also −19,000 against Monday’s 917,000; the draw has widened in each of the last three prints.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 248,300 mt, a thirty-fourth consecutive draw, −8,100 on the week, first print below 250,000.
  • ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread flipped from a $1.00 contango to +$4.00 and +$2.00 backwardation, and did so while the price fell.
  • ⚑ September hike odds cut to roughly 29% (about 55% a week ago).
  • ⚑ DXY fell 0.36% to 99.608 — the first clear dollar decline of this sequence.
  • ⚑ US July retail sales −0.6% and Michigan 51.0 further weaken the hiking path.
  • ⚑ Brent $88.52, up more than 5% on the week; the blockade declared able to run indefinitely; the fee-free window expires around August 16.
  • ⚑ Two ADNOC tankers attacked crossing Hormuz — the geopolitical risk premium rebuilds.
  • ⚑ Australian alumina FOB rises to $349; 30,000 mt trades at $374 CFR Malaysia — the overseas cost side is tightening.
  • ⚑ AO2610 closed +16 on a session where SHFE aluminium fell 205 — the first alumina-leads-higher print of this sequence.
  • Alunorte remains at 50% of capacity with no restoration date (carried).
  • Qatalum shut; Alcoa cut 2026 alumina guidance to 9.5–9.6 Mt (carried).
  • Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; one house sees overseas supply down 980,000 mt in 2026 (carried).
  • China’s 45 Mt capacity cap increasingly binding against 45.31 Mt operating; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y (carried).
  • ⚑ PV frame operating rates stable with ample orders through month-end, and module buyers unchanged despite higher prices.
  • ⚑ The Friday night session opened above both close and settlement, on a product open-interest build of 12,655 — the largest night build of this sequence.

Bearish factors (19)

  • ⚑ EGA’s Al Taweelah runs at 18% of capacity and targets pre-war capacity by Q1 2027, with the restart faster than the market expected.
  • ⚑ The Al Taweelah recycling plant is at 10% and ramps to full by end-2026.
  • ⚑ Tomago secures A$2.5 billion over a decade — Australia’s largest smelter is off the closure list.
  • ⚑ SHFE fell 400 yuan in two sessions; the week closed −155 in an outside reversal.
  • ⚑ The August 14 close lost MA5 (24,135.00) and MA10 (23,976.00) — the latter for the first time since July 27.
  • ⚑ The close lost the old core-range floor at 23,900; SMM cut the band to 23,600–24,450.
  • ⚑ LME fell $125 in three sessions; cash sits below both the August 7 and August 6 prints, the lowest since August 5.
  • ⚑ SMM cut its LME band to $3,180–3,330 from $3,350–3,420.
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest BUILT on both down days (+1,345, +2,577) — closer to fresh shorts than to long liquidation.
  • ⚑ SMM A00 fell 250 on each of two sessions; the basis compressed from +115 to −30.
  • ⚑ Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory turned to 25,500 mt (+1,500 w/w), ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking.
  • ⚑ AD2610 fell 510 yuan (−2.16%) across the two sessions — harder than primary.
  • ⚑ ADC12 slipped from 24,400 to 24,200; import losses widened beyond 1,000 yuan/mt.
  • ⚑ The domestic alumina index fell to 2,689.77, with Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Guangxi each cut 5 yuan.
  • Processing operating rate 60.1% and falling; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2 with all seven sub-sectors contracting (carried).
  • Secondary aluminium producers’ operating rate 34.6% in July (carried, caliber conflict).
  • Restarts pending: Slovalco in Q4 and a Missouri smelter at year-end (carried).
  • Guinea’s record H1 bauxite exports of 114.8 Mt, +15% y/y; refinery bauxite inventory approximately 96 days (carried).
  • ⊘ China Jan-July property investment −6.4% and new starts −36.1% (unconfirmed pre-release caliber).

8 · One-Sentence Market View

With the nearby evidence — inventory and the curve — still strengthening while the forward supply curve was revised upward by two separate events, aluminum prices are more likely in the short term to consolidate between 23,650 (MA60) and 23,976 (MA10) after losing MA5, MA10 and the old band floor, with direction hinging on whether Friday night’s bounce is confirmed by Monday’s day session.

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether AL2610 holds 23,850 (the night low) and 23,810 (Friday’s low); if lost, the next references are 23,650 (MA60) and the new band floor at 23,600.
  • ⚑ Whether AL2610 reclaims 23,976 (MA10) and 24,000–24,005 (the night highs) — the only mechanical test of whether Friday night’s bounce is a repair or a retracement.
  • ⚑ The direction of whole-product open interest: a rally on rising open interest is shorts being pressed rather than covering; a rally on falling open interest is short covering (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether the LME cash-to-3M backwardation persists; it appeared during a decline, and if it widens during a rebound the nearby-tightness reading is established.
  • ⚑ Whether LME reclaims $3,261 (August 6) and $3,275–3,279 (August 13); below, the references are $3,236.72 (MA20) and the new band floor at $3,180.
  • ⚑ Whether the alumina divergence converges: whether the domestic index (2,689.77) turns with the Australian FOB ($349), and whether AO2610 holds 2,674.
  • ⚑ Monday’s (August 17) social-inventory print, and China’s July activity data in the August 15/17 window; also the expiry of the fee-free Hormuz transit window around August 16 and the Iran measures Bessent flagged for next week.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突或写稿时未取得之数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers or data not retrievable at the time of writing.