Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: The night session closes flat at 23,945 below the 10-day average. China's July loans contract again.周末版:夜盘收平于 23,945,未能站上 10 日均线;中国 7 月贷款再度收缩。

Sunday, August 16, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Weekend edition, written the morning of Sunday August 16 (Asia), 09:10 Beijing. August 15 (Saturday) and August 16 (Sunday) are non-trading days on SHFE and LME, and SMM publishes no spot quotations on either. NO NEW PRICE PRINT OF ANY KIND EXISTS FOR THIS BRIEF. Every price level carried here is the August 14 confirmed caliber already established in the August 15 edition, with ONE exception, which is the single most important new item of the weekend and is described next. THE FRIDAY NIGHT SESSION IS NOW CLOSED OUT. The night session opened 21:00 Beijing on August 14 and belongs to the Monday August 17 trading day; yesterday's brief could report only its opening prints (AL2608 open 23,905, AL2609 open 23,960, AL2610 open 23,975; highs 23,920 / 24,000 / 24,005; lows 23,820 / 23,835 / 23,850; whole-product open interest 652,352, +12,655, the largest night build of this sequence; night volume 151,099) and recorded the finish as unobserved. SMM's cross-metal weekend wrap, published 08:53 Beijing on August 16, supplies it: SHFE aluminium closed the night session FLAT at 23,945 yuan/mt. On SMM's convention the overnight percentage is struck against the previous settlement, and 23,945 is precisely the August 14 settlement of both AL2609 and AL2610, so the reading is internally consistent: unchanged on settlement, +60 (+0.25%) on the August 14 day-session close of 23,885, and 55–60 below the session's own highs of 24,000–24,005. Against this brief's own moving-average caliber the night close of 23,945 remains 31.00 BELOW MA10 at 23,976.00 and 190.00 below MA5 at 24,135.00, while holding +304.25 over MA20 at 23,640.75 and +295.00 over MA60 at 23,650.00. SHFE AUGUST 14 TRADING DAY, CARRIED UNCHANGED: AL2609 open 24,145, high 24,170, low 23,810, close 23,885, settlement 23,945, −275 on the settlement caliber (−1.14%) and −205 on the close caliber (−0.85%), volume 154,553 lots, open interest 214,610 (−16,098); AL2610 open 24,100, high 24,170, low 23,795, close 23,885, settlement 23,945, open interest 228,180 (+7,109) — the roll is complete, AL2610 now leads AL2609 by 13,570 lots; AL2608 close 23,900, settlement 23,940, open interest 15,050; whole-product open interest 639,697 (+2,577), volume 328,544. WEEKLY, CARRIED: −155 (−0.64%) against August 7's close of 24,040, after +410 the week before; week high 24,470 (August 12, the cycle high), week low 23,810 (August 14) — an outside reversal week. MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, computed from SHFE's own daily files, main-contract closes, ninety trading sessions to August 14: MA5 24,135.00, MA10 23,976.00, MA20 23,640.75, MA30 23,456.33, MA40 23,347.50, MA60 23,650.00. LME, CARRIED AND CONFIRMED (Westmetall/official): August 14 cash settlement $3,248.00 (−$31.00), three-month $3,246.00 (−$29.00); August 13 cash $3,279.00, three-month $3,275.00; cash-to-3M backwardation +$2.00; stocks 248,300 mt, −1,700, a 34th consecutive draw and −8,100 on the week; weekly cash −$31.50 against August 7's $3,279.50, and −$125.00 from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00. NEW THIS EDITION, SMM CALIBER: LME aluminium +0.22% in the Friday overnight session; LME copper closed a SEVENTH consecutive weekly gain (+1.07% on the week), which is the cross-metal context for aluminium's own −0.96% week. TradingEconomics caliber, carried without reconciliation: August 14 $3,247.70, +$6.20 (+0.19%); month +3.18%, year +24.74%; Q3 forecast $3,276.08 and twelve-month $3,475.69, both revised DOWN from the $3,377.15 / $3,580.89 pair carried on August 15. SPOT, CARRIED: SMM A00 23,870 yuan/mt on August 14 (range 23,860–23,880), −250 for a second consecutive session; basis −30 against AL2608's close of 23,900 and −15 against AL2609's 23,885; SMM's own August 14 South China daily review, published 12:06, places transactions at a PREMIUM of 60–100 against the SHFE 2608 contract with mainstream quotations at −10 to 0, and characterises trading as MODERATE, with holders cutting offers into the weekend and downstream buyers restocking in modest volumes at the lower prints. INVENTORY, CARRIED: SMM social inventory 898,000 mt on the August 13 Thursday print, −35,000 week-on-week against August 6's 933,000 and −19,000 against Monday August 10's 917,000 — the steepest Thursday draw of the series and the first print below 900,000 mt; the Thursday series reads 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000. Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory 25,500 mt, +1,500 week-on-week, ending TEN consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt. Aluminium billet inventory +4,000 week-on-week on the August 10 caliber. ALUMINA, CARRIED: SMM index 2,689.77 (−0.58), with Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Guizhou each −5; Australian FOB $349 (+$1); a cargo traded at $374 CFR Malaysia; AO2610 closed +16 on August 14 against AL2609's −205, and the most-traded alumina contract was −0.19% in the Friday night session on SMM's caliber, while the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract was +0.24%. NEW MACRO CONFIRMED THIS EDITION: China July financial data (PBOC, released August 13) — M2 +7.7% y/y against a 7.9% consensus and 8.0% in June; outstanding total social financing +7.4% y/y, unchanged from June; outstanding yuan loans +5.1% y/y against 5.2% in June and a 5.3% consensus, a record low; household loans −460.3 billion yuan after +264.6 billion in June; corporate loans −130 billion after +1.5 trillion; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion against 12.87 trillion a year earlier; the second monthly contraction in new loans of 2026. China M2 +7.7% is also carried in SMM's own weekend macro list. US, CARRIED: July retail sales −0.6% m/m to $763.6 billion against +0.1% expected, the first decline in nine months and the worst since May 2025, with the ex-autos-and-gas control reading −0.2%; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0 from 55.2 against 54.5 expected. DOLLAR: TradingEconomics has August 14 at 99.667, −0.2970 (−0.30%), month −0.81%, year +1.85%; SMM has −0.32% to 99.64 overnight and, CRITICALLY, +0.04% ON THE WEEK. RATES: CME FedWatch September hike probability approximately 30.6% on the August 14 caliber, against roughly 35% on Thursday, 51% on Tuesday, about 50% a month earlier and about 82% on July 23; a separate caliber prints 32%; probability of at least one hike by year-end approximately 63%; FOMC September 15–16; effective fed funds 3.63%. ENERGY: Brent $88.52 on August 14, +$1.45 (+1.67%), +5% on the week on the TradingEconomics caliber and +6.31% on SMM's, month +4.20%, year +34.43%, Q3 forecast $90.41 and twelve-month $104.28; WTI +1.42% overnight and +5.4% on the week. NEW FUNDAMENTALS CONFIRMED THIS EDITION: SMM's August 15 billet supply note — July operating rate 58.3%, +1.1 pp m/m and +5.2 pp y/y, a year-to-date high and a three-year high for the period, with an August forecast of approximately 56.9%; processing fees pulled back sharply from June highs and now sit below the industry average production cost; social and in-factory billet inventories both low versus the same period in recent years; extrusion operating rates declining; some extrusion enterprises switching to remelted aluminium ingot substitutes, which SMM describes as a natural ceiling for billet processing fees; passive production cuts in southwest China continuing. SMM's August 15 assessment of Indonesia's magnitude-7.7 earthquake — struck 05:58 local on August 15, epicentre about 68 km north-northwest of Ende, East Nusa Tenggara, off Flores Island, depth 10 km, at least 47 dead — records the aluminium-chain impact as near zero: bauxite, alumina and the overwhelming majority of aluminium capacity lie in western Indonesia, generally more than 1,400 km from the epicentre; the nearest smelter, Sulawesi Morowali Huachin Aluminum, is approximately 624 km away and outside the 300 km damage radius; the tsunami wave height was under 0.4 m. Alunorte, following the August 11 announcement that it had cut to 50% of its 6.3 mt/yr capacity on a natural-gas supply disruption from CELBA (New Fortress Energy), has now procured a spot LNG cargo from a European energy firm that had previously supplied volumes to New Fortress for the Barcarena terminal, and has requested direct access to the Barcarena receiving and regasification terminal; Norsk Hydro's estimate of the Q3 2026 Bauxite & Alumina impact remains USD 75–100 million; Alunorte's arbitration against New Fortress, initiated in 2025, is unresolved. GEOPOLITICS: Defence Secretary Hegseth states the United States can maintain the naval blockade of Iranian ports INDEFINITELY; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports since the blockade was reimposed on July 13; Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged economic isolation measures 'like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country'; the IEA warns that reopening the strait is becoming more pressing as global oil stockpiles draw down; the fee-free transit window under the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17 by Trump and Pezeshkian expires around August 16. CALENDAR: China's July activity data — industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property investment — is scheduled for MONDAY AUGUST 17, alongside SMM's Monday social-inventory print. SMM's own forecast bands, carried from August 14: SHFE 23,600–24,450 (lowered from 23,900–24,500); LME $3,180–3,330 (lowered from $3,350–3,420).
Steven Yuan
NO NEW PRINT EXISTS Aug 15 and Aug 16 are non-trading on SHFE and LME. All prices carried from the Aug 14 caliber
NIGHT SESSION CLOSES 23,945 SMM wrap, 08:53 Beijing Aug 16: SHFE aluminium FLAT at 23,945 — exactly the Aug 14 settlement
+60 on the day close 23,885 → 23,945, +0.25%. The Friday bounce held, and belongs to the Monday Aug 17 trading day
BUT IT FAILS MA10 BY 31 23,945 vs MA10 23,976.00 (own caliber). The first break since July 27 is NOT yet repaired
And gave back 55–60 from its high Night highs 24,000 (AL2609) / 24,005 (AL2610); finish 23,945. Still 190 below MA5 24,135.00
Long averages untouched +304.25 over MA20 (23,640.75), +295.00 over MA60 (23,650.00) at the night close
THE DOLLAR WEEK WAS +0.04% SMM caliber. Friday's −0.32% to 99.64 was ONE DAY — the index finished the week unchanged
TE dollar caliber 99.667 on Aug 14, −0.2970 (−0.30%); month −0.81%, year +1.85%
CHINA JULY LOANS CONTRACT AGAIN Second monthly contraction of 2026. Jan–Jul new loans 10.38tn vs 12.87tn a year earlier
M2 +7.7%, below consensus vs 7.9% expected and 8.0% in June. TSF stock +7.4%, unchanged from June
Outstanding loans +5.1% — a record low vs 5.2% June, 5.3% expected. Household loans −460.3bn after +264.6bn; corporate −130bn after +1.5tn
BILLET OPERATING RATE PEAKS July 58.3%, +1.1 pp m/m, +5.2 pp y/y — YTD high and a three-year high for the period
August forecast 56.9% SMM, Aug 15. Processing fees already below the industry average production cost
Extruders switch to remelted ingot SMM calls it 'a natural ceiling' for billet processing fees. Extrusion operating rates falling
ALUNORTE BUYS SPOT LNG Cargo from a European firm that previously supplied New Fortress; direct Barcarena access requested
The 50% cut still stands 6.3 mt/yr refinery at half rate; Hydro Q3 impact estimate USD 75–100mn unchanged; arbitration unresolved
INDONESIA M7.7: NEAR-ZERO SMM, Aug 15. Bauxite/alumina/most capacity >1,400 km west of the epicentre; tsunami wave <0.4 m
Nearest smelter 624 km out Sulawesi Morowali Huachin — outside the 300 km damage radius. At least 47 dead off Flores
HORMUZ WINDOW EXPIRES TODAY The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum's fee-free 60-day window expires around August 16
Blockade 'indefinite' Hegseth. CENTCOM has redirected 59 vessels since July 13. Bessent: isolation 'never been seen'
Brent $88.52, +5–6.3% wk +1.67% Friday. WTI +1.42% overnight, +5.4% weekly. IEA warns stockpiles drawing down
SOCIAL INVENTORY 898KT Carried. −35,000 w/w, first print under 900,000 mt. Series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000
LME stocks 248,300 Carried. −1,700, a 34th consecutive draw, −8,100 on the week. Backwardation +$2.00
LME copper: SEVEN straight weeks +1.07% on the week vs aluminium's −0.96%. LME aluminium +0.22% in the Friday overnight session
A00 23,870, basis −30 Carried. But SMM South China still places transactions at a 60–100 PREMIUM vs the 2608 contract
Alumina index 2,689.77 Carried, −0.58. Australian FOB $349 (+$1). AO most-traded −0.19% in the night session
HIKE ODDS 30.6% Aug 14 caliber, vs ~35% Thursday and 51% Tuesday. At least one hike by year-end ~63%. FOMC Sept 15–16
CHINA JULY ACTIVITY DATA MONDAY IP, retail sales, FAI and property investment on Aug 17 — same day as the social-inventory print

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:本期无任何新的价格印记

  • 8月15日(周六)与 8月16日(周日)为上期所与 LME 非交易日,SMM 亦不发布现货报价。除下一栏所述的夜盘收盘之外,本期所有价格均为 8月14日已确认口径的延续。
  • 下一个交易日为 8月17日(周一);其交易日已于 8月14日 21:00(北京)的夜盘开始。

⚑ 本期唯一新增印记:周五夜盘已收平于 23,945

  • SMM 于 8月16日 08:53(北京)发布的跨品种周末综述给出:沪铝夜盘收平(0.00%)于 23,945 元/吨。
  • 口径说明:SMM 的隔夜涨跌幅以前一结算价为基准;23,945 恰为 AL2609 与 AL2610 于 8月14日的结算价,故该读数内部自洽——对结算价持平,对 8月14日日盘收盘价 23,885 上涨 60 元(+0.25%)。
  • ⚑ 昨日简报仅能报出夜盘开盘(AL2608 开 23,905、AL2609 开 23,960、AL2610 开 23,975),并将收盘记为未观测;该缺口现已补齐。
  • ⚑ 夜盘高低点(延续):AL2609 高 24,000、低 23,835;AL2610 高 24,005、低 23,850;AL2608 高 23,920、低 23,820。
  • ⚑ 收盘 23,945 较自身高点 24,000–24,005 回吐 55–60 元。
  • ⚑ 夜盘品种合计持仓 652,352 手,增加 12,655 手——本序列夜盘最大增仓;成交 151,099 手。

⚑ 均线:夜盘收盘价仍在 MA10 之下 31 元

  • 均线为本简报自建口径:上期所日行情文件,主力合约收盘价,90 个交易日(4月7日至8月14日)。MA5 24,135.00、MA10 23,976.00、MA20 23,640.75、MA30 23,456.33、MA40 23,347.50、MA60 23,650.00。
  • ⚑ 夜盘收盘价 23,945 对各均线:低于 MA5 190.00 元、低于 MA10 31.00 元;高于 MA20 304.25 元、高于 MA30 488.67 元、高于 MA40 597.50 元、高于 MA60 295.00 元。
  • ⚑ 8月14日日盘收盘 23,885 曾是 7月27日以来首次收于 MA10 之下;夜盘将差距由 −91 收窄至 −31,但未收复。
  • 20 个交易日收盘价区间 23,010–24,285;60 个交易日区间 22,370–24,825。
  • SMM 于 8月14日下调的预期区间维持:沪铝 23,600–24,450;夜盘收盘价 23,945 落于该区间内,高于下沿 345 元、低于上沿 505 元。

8月14日日盘各合约(延续,未变)

  • AL2609:开 24,145,高 24,170,低 23,810,收 23,885,结算 23,945;较前结算价 −275(−1.14%),较前收盘价 −205(−0.85%);成交 154,553 手,持仓 214,610 手(−16,098)。
  • AL2610:开 24,100,高 24,170,低 23,795,收 23,885,结算 23,945;成交 119,978 手,持仓 228,180 手(+7,109)。
  • AL2608:收 23,900,结算 23,940,持仓 15,050(−520)。
  • ⚑ 主力换月已完成:AL2610 持仓 228,180 手对 AL2609 的 214,610 手,领先 13,570 手;8月12日尚为 AL2609 领先 26,839 手。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓 639,697 手(+2,577),为连续第三个交易日增仓,且发生于合计下跌 400 元的两个交易日之上;成交 328,544 手。
  • 周线(延续):较 8月7日收盘价 24,040 下跌 155 元(−0.64%);周内高点 24,470(周三,周期高点)、低点 23,810(周五),振幅 660 元,构成外包反转周线。

⚑ 伦铝:周末无新印记,周五电子盘 +0.22%

  • 官方 / Westmetall 口径(延续):8月14日现货结算 3,248.00 美元(−31.00),三个月 3,246.00 美元(−29.00);现货对三个月为升水 +2.00 美元。
  • ⚑ 自 8月11日 3,373.00 美元累计下跌 125.00 美元(−3.71%);全周现货跌 31.50 美元(−0.96%)。
  • ⚑ 新增(SMM 口径):伦铝周五隔夜 +0.22%;同栏伦铜录得连续第七周上涨(周 +1.07%)——这是铝自身 −0.96% 周线的跨品种背景。
  • 本简报自建伦铝均线(Westmetall 现货结算价,61 个交易日):MA5 3,307.00、MA10 3,283.55、MA20 3,236.72、MA40 3,195.09、MA60 3,337.01 美元。
  • ⊘ TE 口径并列不作调和:8月14日 3,247.70 美元(+6.20,+0.19%);月 +3.18%、年 +24.74%。
  • ⚑ TE 预测已下修:三季度 3,276.08 美元(前值 3,377.15)、十二个月 3,475.69 美元(前值 3,580.89)——两项均较 8月15日口径下调。

解读

  • ⚑ 价格位置:夜盘收盘 23,945 处于回调区的上沿,而非高位区。周期高点 24,470 与周五低点 23,810 构成 660 元区间,23,945 位于该区间约 20% 分位之上(自低点起算 135 元)。
  • ⚑ 机制读数:夜盘同时做到了两件事——守住了低点(23,835 高于周五 23,810),与失败于 MA10(23,945 低于 23,976)。守底而不能收复均线,是典型的震荡消化形态,而非反转形态(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 夜盘增仓 12,655 手为本序列最大,而价格仅回到结算价:增仓而不涨,更接近多空在此价位重新建立对峙,而非单边资金进入(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝一栏的内部矛盾仍在:绝对价格三连跌 125 美元,而曲线由贴水转为升水。若为真实过剩,近月不应收紧(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铜连续七周上涨而伦铝周线下跌,说明本周铝的疲弱并非有色板块的共同宏观压力所致,而是铝自身一栏的问题(此为解读)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

现货:周末无报价,延续 8月14日口径

  • SMM A00 铝锭(8月14日):23,870 元/吨(区间 23,860–23,880),较 8月13日的 24,120 元下跌 250 元(−1.04%);此为连续第二日下跌 250 元,8月12日为 24,370 元。
  • ⚑ 基差:对 AL2608 收盘价 23,900 为 −30 元贴水;对 AL2609 收盘价 23,885 为 −15 元。8月12日曾为 +115 元升水。
  • ⚑ 新增推算:若以周五夜盘收盘价 23,945 为参照,A00(23,870)隐含贴水扩大至 −75 元——即周一现货若不跟涨,基差将自动走弱(此为推算,非新报价)。
  • ⚑ 但升贴水并未回到 8月10–11日的 −100/−120 深贴水带:SMM 自身 8月14日 12:06 发布的华南日评仍将成交定在对 SHFE 2608 合约升水 60–100 元,主流报价 −10 至 0 元。
  • 8月14日九区域报价(延续):上海 23,870(−250)、无锡 23,860(−260)、杭州 23,900(−260)、中原 23,770(−250)、佛山 23,920(−280)、重庆 23,830(−250)、天津 23,920(−200)、临沂 23,920(−220)、沈阳 23,865(−145)。

氧化铝:延续,夜盘小幅走弱

  • SMM 氧化铝指数(延续):2,689.77 元/吨(−0.58);山东、河南、山西、贵州四地各 −5 元。
  • 澳洲 FOB(延续):349 美元/吨(+1);另有一船以 374 美元/吨 CFR 马来西亚成交。
  • ⚑ AO2610 于 8月14日日盘逆势收涨 16 元(同日 AL2609 跌 205 元);⚑ 新增:周五夜盘氧化铝主力合约 −0.19%(SMM 口径)。
  • 8月全国加权平均完全成本预期区间 2,700–2,820 元/吨,加权平均现金成本 2,530–2,650 元/吨(SMM,延续)。
  • ⚑ 按指数 2,689.77 对完全成本区间中值约 2,760 元计,行业整体仍处于完全成本线之下、现金成本线之上——这是本轮氧化铝下行的机械边界(此为推算)。

再生铝与合金:延续

  • ADC12(延续):24,200 元/吨,自 24,400 元回落;进口亏损已超过 1,000 元/吨。
  • AD2610(延续):两个交易日累计 −510 元(−2.16%),跌幅大于 AL 主力。
  • ⚑ 新增(SMM 口径):周五夜盘铸造铝合金主力合约 +0.24%,为夜盘同板块唯一录得上涨的合约,而氧化铝主力 −0.19%、沪铝持平。

跨市场:周五收盘一览(SMM 口径)

  • 沪市夜盘:铜 +0.49%(周 −0.31%)、铝 持平、氧化铝主力 −0.19%、铸造铝合金主力 +0.24%、铅 −0.22%、锌 +0.41%、锡 +0.36%、镍 +0.07%。
  • 伦敦:铜 +0.26%(周 +1.07%,连续第七周上涨)、铝 +0.22%、铅 +0.26%、锌 +0.45%、锡 +0.36%、镍 +0.30%。
  • 贵金属:COMEX 黄金 +0.26%(周 +0.73%,连续第四周上涨);沪金 +0.60%(周 +1.68%);沪银 +0.57%(周 +3.45%)。
  • 能源:WTI +1.42%(周 +5.4%);布伦特 +2.01%(周 +6.31%,SMM 口径)。⊘ TE 口径布伦特 8月14日 88.52 美元(+1.45,+1.67%),周涨约 5%。

解读

  • ⚑ 板块内部排序在周五夜盘出现分化:铸造铝合金(+0.24%)> 沪铝(持平)> 氧化铝(−0.19%)。若这一排序在周一延续,意味着成本端(氧化铝)继续让利、而下游合金端相对抗跌(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 现货一栏是本期最值得注意的静态矛盾:SMM 自身的华南成交仍为升水 60–100 元,而以收盘价推算的基差为贴水 −30 元。两者并存说明”贴水”主要来自合约选择与移仓,而非真实的现货过剩(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

周末无新印记;下一印记为周一(8月17日)

  • SMM 社会库存(延续,8月13日周四印记):898,000 吨,较 8月6日的 933,000 吨周减 35,000 吨,较 8月10日(周一)的 917,000 吨再减 19,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 为本序列首次跌破 90 万吨,且为本序列最大的周四降幅。周四序列:953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 累计:自 8月6日起两个印记合计去库 35,000 吨;自 5月初约 147 万吨的年内高点起,去库幅度已超过 57 万吨(此为推算)。
  • LME 库存(延续):248,300 吨,减少 1,700 吨,为连续第 34 个交易日下降;全周减少 8,100 吨。
  • 铸造铝合金锭库存(延续):25,500 吨,周增 1,500 吨——结束连续十周去库(累计去库 38,900 吨)。
  • 铝棒库存(8月10日口径,延续):周增 4,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 新增(SMM,8月15日):铝棒社会库存与厂内库存”均处于近年同期偏低水平”,在低库存环境下持货方仍具备一定挺价能力,但需关注后续累库风险。

解读

  • ⚑ 库存一栏仍是多头最强的一列,且本周末未受到任何削弱:铝锭端持续去库并跌破 90 万吨,LME 端连续 34 日下降并伴随近月升水。
  • ⚑ 但库存一栏内部已出现两处裂口:铸造合金锭结束十周去库转为累库,铝棒库存转增 4,000 吨。两者规模都小,但方向都与主序列相反(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 周一(8月17日)的社库印记具有超出常规的判别价值:若在 898,000 吨的低基数上继续去库,则去库已进入供应驱动阶段;若转为累库,则 8月13日的印记将被追认为”高价格抑制到货”的一次性事件(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美元:周五下跌是真的,但全周基本持平

  • ⚑ SMM 口径:美元指数隔夜 −0.32% 至 99.64,而全周 +0.04%——即全周基本持平。
  • TE 口径:8月14日 99.667,−0.2970(−0.30%);月 −0.81%、年 +1.85%。
  • ⊘ TE 文字描述称周五水平”接近 8月7日的两个月低点 95.53”,该数值与 99 关口序列不符,疑为 99.53 之误,故不予采用。
  • ⚑ 8月15日简报以”美元终于破位”开篇;周度数值表明该破位为单一交易日事件,而非趋势——本项据此由利多下调为中性偏利多(此为解读)。

美联储:加息概率续降,但年内仍未出清

  • CME FedWatch(8月14日口径):9月加息概率约 30.6%;另一口径为 32%。
  • 路径:7月23日约 82% → 一个月前约 50% → 本周二 51% → 周四约 35% → 周五约 30.6%。
  • ⚑ 年内至少加息一次的概率仍约 63%——即市场推迟了加息,但并未取消加息。
  • 当前联邦基金有效利率 3.63%;下次 FOMC 为 9月15–16日。

美国数据:两项弱数据构成周五的定价基础(延续)

  • 7月零售销售:环比 −0.6% 至 7,636 亿美元,预期 +0.1%,为九个月来首次下降、且为 2025年5月以来最差;剔除汽车与汽油的口径为 −0.2%。
  • 密歇根大学 8月消费者信心初值:51.0,前值 55.2,预期 54.5。
  • ⚑ 时点:零售销售于北京时间 8月14日 20:30 公布,即夜盘开盘前 30 分钟——因此周五夜盘的高开是对该数据的第一次国内定价。

⚑ 中国:7 月信贷数据为本周末最重要的新增宏观事实

  • ⚑ M2 同比 +7.7%,低于 7.9% 的预期,亦低于 6 月的 8.0%。
  • ⚑ 人民币贷款余额同比 +5.1%,低于 6 月的 5.2%、低于 5.3% 的预期——为历史低位。
  • 社融存量同比 +7.4%,与 6 月持平。
  • ⚑ 结构比总量更弱:住户贷款(含按揭)7 月减少 4,603 亿元,6 月为增加 2,646 亿元;企业贷款减少 1,300 亿元,6 月为增加 1.5 万亿元。
  • ⚑ 1–7 月新增贷款合计 10.38 万亿元,上年同期为 12.87 万亿元;7 月为 2026 年第二次单月贷款收缩。
  • ⚑ 中国 7 月经济活动数据——工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、固定资产投资、房地产开发投资——定于 8月17日(周一)公布。

能源与地缘:方向未变,且窗口今日到期

  • 布伦特:8月14日 88.52 美元/桶(+1.45,+1.67%);周涨约 5%(TE)或 +6.31%(SMM);月 +4.20%、年 +34.43%。TE 预测三季度 90.41 美元、十二个月 104.28 美元。
  • WTI:隔夜 +1.42%,周 +5.4%。
  • ⚑ 赫格塞思称美国可”无限期”维持对伊朗港口的海上封锁;自 7月13日重新实施封锁以来,美中央司令部已劝返 59 艘试图进出伊朗港口的商船。
  • ⚑ 贝森特预告将实施”历史上从未见过的”对一国的经济孤立措施,与封锁并行。
  • ⚑ 6月17日由特朗普与佩泽希齐扬签署的 14 点《伊斯兰堡备忘录》项下的 60 天免费通行窗口,于 8月16日前后到期——即今日。
  • IEA 警告:随着全球原油库存快速消耗,重开海峡的紧迫性正在上升。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 利多铝价:美联储加息概率自 51% 降至约 30.6%;油价周涨 5–6.3%;霍尔木兹窗口到期与制裁升级为能源成本端提供上行风险。
  • ⚑ 利空铝价:美元全周持平(而非下跌);中国信贷收缩且结构恶化;年内至少一次加息的概率仍约 63%,即宽松尚未定价。
  • ⚑ 净读数:宏观一栏由昨日的”偏利多”回落至”中性”,单一变量为美元的周度口径(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 海外供应:一项缓解,一项证伪

  • ⚑ Alunorte(缓解):该 630 万吨/年精炼厂自 8月11日起因 CELBA(New Fortress Energy)天然气供应中断而减产至 50%;现已从一家欧洲能源公司采购一船现货 LNG——该公司此前曾为 New Fortress 向 Barcarena 终端供货——并已申请直接接入 Barcarena 接收与再气化终端。
  • Alunorte 的减产尚未撤销;挪威海德鲁对三季度铝土矿与氧化铝板块的影响估计维持 7,500 万–1 亿美元不变;Alunorte 于 2025 年发起的对 New Fortress 的国际仲裁尚未了结。
  • ⚑ 印尼地震(证伪):8月15日 05:58(当地)弗洛勒斯岛外海发生 7.7 级地震,震中位于东努沙登加拉省恩德市西北偏北约 68 公里,震源深度 10 公里,已致至少 47 人遇难。
  • ⚑ SMM 评估:对铝产业链冲击近乎为零。铝土矿、氧化铝及绝大部分电解铝产能位于印尼西部,距震中普遍在 1,400 公里以上;最近的冶炼厂苏拉威西 Morowali 华鑫铝业约 624 公里,仍在 300 公里破坏半径之外;海啸波高不足 0.4 米。
  • ⚑ 本项列入是为了防止误读:该事件不应计入供应利多一栏。
  • EGA Al Taweelah(延续):当前运行率为产能的 18%,预计 2027 年一季度恢复战前满产;修复资本开支 15 亿迪拉姆;再生铝厂运行率 10%,预计 2026 年底满产。SMM 称复产速度”快于市场此前预期”。
  • Tomago(延续):获澳大利亚方面自 2029 年起十年 25 亿澳元(18 亿美元)支持,Tomago 自身投资 11 亿澳元并在电力尖峰时段压减负荷;力拓持股略过半数。
  • 待复产产能(延续):Slovalco(四季度)、密苏里冶炼厂(年底)。

国内供应:产能与产量口径延续

  • 7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%(31 天口径);月末建成产能约 4,629 万吨,环比持平(SMM)。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,环比 +1.1 个百分点;8 月预计 78.5%(SMM)。
  • 7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%——铸锭减少是社库去化的供应端解释之一(延续)。
  • 西南地区被动减产延续(SMM,8月15日)。

⚑ 铝棒:7 月为年内高点,8 月预期回落

  • ⚑ SMM(8月15日):7 月铝棒开工率 58.3%,环比 +1.1 个百分点、同比 +5.2 个百分点,为年内新高,亦为近三年同期高位。
  • ⚑ 8 月预期回落至约 56.9%。
  • ⚑ 加工费:二季度表现强劲,自 6 月高点大幅回落,当前已低于行业平均生产成本,并在 8 月呈现进一步走弱迹象。
  • ⚑ 抑制因素:下半年传统淡季国内需求疲弱;挤压开工率下行;中外价差收窄使出口动能减弱,加工费竞争加剧;部分挤压企业已转用再生铝锭替代——SMM 称此构成铝棒加工费的”天然天花板”。
  • 支撑因素:铝水供应偏紧;西南被动减产延续;社库与厂库均处近年同期低位。

氧化铝与成本(延续)

  • SMM 氧化铝指数 2,689.77 元(−0.58);澳洲 FOB 349 美元(+1);374 美元 CFR 马来西亚成交。
  • 8 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,700–2,820 元/吨,现金成本 2,530–2,650 元/吨。
  • 7 月成本反弹主因铝土矿走强:进口矿 CIF 上行与国内矿持续偏紧共同抬升原料端;8 月国内矿复产无明确时间表,进口矿受雨季影响发运预计进一步收缩。
  • 几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%;氧化铝厂铝土矿库存约 96 天(延续)。

下游需求(延续)

  • SMM 7 月铝加工行业 PMI 42.2%,环比 −4.4 个百分点,七个细分板块全部收缩:铝箔 39.0、建筑型材 39.7、再生合金 37.6、板带 44.8、工业型材 42.1、线缆 44.4、原生铝合金 43.9。
  • ⊘ 中国 1–7 月房地产投资 −6.4%、新开工 −36.1%(未确认的预期口径;实际值将于 8月17日公布)。

解读

  • ⚑ 基本面一栏本周末的净变化为负:Alunorte 的成本端利多被部分抵消,印尼地震未提供任何替代利多,而铝棒——此前唯一仍在上行的下游序列——被其编制方明确标注为”7 月见顶、8 月回落”。
  • ⚑ 铝棒一栏的机制值得单独强调:加工费低于行业平均生产成本,且挤压企业可用再生铝锭替代。这意味着即便开工率维持,加工费也难以修复——这是结构性天花板,而非季节性回落(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 供应端的唯一无争议利多仍是铸锭量同比 −15.1%:它同时解释了社库去化与现货偏紧,且不依赖任何海外事件(此为解读)。

六 · 原铝现货市场

周末无成交;延续 8月14日华南日评(SMM,12:06)

  • 主流报价:对 SHFE 2608 合约 −10 至 0 元;较 8月12日的 −30 至 −10 元有所改善。
  • ⚑ 成交价位:对 SHFE 2608 合约升水 60–100 元。
  • 持货方行为:早盘尝试挺价出货;临近周末看空情绪发酵,提前套现意愿上升,多数持货方小幅让价出货。
  • 下游行为:初期观望等待更低价格,随后在低位小幅补库;贸易商以承接低价货源为主。
  • 整体成交:一般(moderate)。
  • 供应描述:库存重回去化通道,但可流通货源相对充裕,部分持货方仍维持升水,出货速度放缓。

区域结构(8月14日口径,延续)

  • 华东:上海 23,870(−250)、无锡 23,860(−260)、杭州 23,900(−260)。
  • 中原:23,770(−250)——仍为九区域中最低。
  • 华南:佛山 23,920(−280);南海 24,480(−280,8月13日口径)。
  • 其他:重庆 23,830(−250)、天津 23,920(−200)、临沂 23,920(−220)、沈阳 23,865(−145)。
  • ⚑ 沈阳仅跌 145 元、天津仅跌 200 元,而佛山跌 280 元——本轮回调中华南跌幅最大、北方跌幅最小(此为推算)。

解读:情绪指标(定性)

  • 出货意愿:偏强(持货方主动让价出货,临近周末套现意愿上升)。
  • 采购意愿:中性偏弱(先观望、后小幅补库,未见集中补库)。
  • 贸易商参与度:中性偏强(以承接低价货源为主)。
  • ⚑ 综合读数:现货一栏为”跟跌但不恐慌”——报价改善、成交仍为升水,而成交量级仅为”一般”。这与库存端的强势并不矛盾,但也未提供额外向上推力(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素

  • ⚑ 社会库存 898,000 吨,周减 35,000 吨,首次跌破 90 万吨,为本序列最大周四降幅。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 248,300 吨,连续第 34 日下降,全周减少 8,100 吨。
  • ⚑ LME 现货对三个月维持升水 +2.00 美元,且该收紧发生于绝对价格下跌之时。
  • ⚑ 周五夜盘收平于 23,945,守住 23,835 的夜盘低点(高于周五日盘低点 23,810),日内低点未被跌破。
  • ⚑ SMM 华南成交仍为对 2608 合约升水 60–100 元,主流报价自 −30/−10 改善至 −10/0。
  • 7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%,直接减少可入库资源。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预期 78.5%,持续挤压铸锭。
  • 铝棒社库与厂库均处近年同期低位,持货方仍具挺价能力。
  • ⚑ 美联储 9 月加息概率自 51% 降至约 30.6%。
  • ⚑ 布伦特周涨 5–6.3%;WTI 周涨 5.4%;能源成本端上行。
  • ⚑ 霍尔木兹免费通行窗口今日到期;封锁被称”无限期”;已劝返 59 艘商船;贝森特预告加码制裁。
  • Alunorte 630 万吨/年精炼厂仍处 50% 运行率,减产未撤销。
  • 西南被动减产延续,国内运行产能上行空间受限。
  • 8 月进口铝土矿受雨季影响发运预计收缩,原料成本端偏强。
  • 建成产能 4,629 万吨环比持平,接近产能天花板。
  • ⚑ 伦铜连续第七周上涨,有色板块整体资金环境未恶化。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 美元指数全周 +0.04%——周五的下跌未构成趋势。
  • ⚑ 中国 7 月人民币贷款余额同比 +5.1%,为历史低位;M2 +7.7% 低于预期。
  • ⚑ 住户贷款减少 4,603 亿元、企业贷款减少 1,300 亿元;为 2026 年第二次单月贷款收缩。
  • ⚑ 1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元,上年同期 12.87 万亿元。
  • ⚑ 铝棒开工率 7 月 58.3% 见顶,8 月预期回落至 56.9%。
  • ⚑ 铝棒加工费已低于行业平均生产成本,且挤压企业转用再生铝锭替代,构成结构性天花板。
  • ⚑ Alunorte 已采购现货 LNG 并申请直接接入 Barcarena 终端,长期停产的尾部风险下降。
  • ⚑ 印尼 7.7 级地震经评估对铝链近乎零影响,未提供供应利多。
  • ⚑ 8月14日收盘失守 MA10(7月27日以来首次),夜盘收盘仍低于 MA10 31 元。
  • ⚑ 周线为外包反转:高 24,470、低 23,810、周 −155。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓在两个下跌日上仍增加 1,345 与 2,577 手,夜盘再增 12,655 手——空头建仓而非多头了结的形态(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ SMM 同时下调沪铝与伦铝预期区间(23,600–24,450 / 3,180–3,330 美元)。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金锭库存 25,500 吨转为周增 1,500 吨,结束连续十周去库。
  • 铝棒库存周增 4,000 吨。
  • ⚑ ADC12 自 24,400 回落至 24,200;AD2610 两日 −510 元(−2.16%),跌幅大于沪铝。
  • 7 月铝加工行业 PMI 42.2%,七个细分板块全部收缩。
  • ⚑ 年内至少加息一次的概率仍约 63%,宽松尚未定价。
  • ⚑ TE 将伦铝三季度与十二个月预测分别下修至 3,276.08 与 3,475.69 美元。
  • EGA Al Taweelah 复产快于预期(18%,2027 年一季度满产)。
  • Tomago 获救助,2029 年起十年 25 亿澳元,海外减产预期下降。
  • ⊘ 中国 1–7 月房地产投资与新开工仍为深度负增长(8月17日确认)。

八 · 一句话观点

近端证据(库存、曲线、华南成交升水)在本周末未受到任何削弱,而远端证据(信贷、铝棒、氧化铝成本、美元周度口径)在四个位置同时走弱;这一组合对应的是”守得住底、收不回均线”的形态——正如周五夜盘在四小时内所完成的那样——因此短期铝价更可能在 23,650(MA60)至 23,976(MA10)之间以震荡消化方式运行,而方向由周一同日落地的两项事件决定:中国 7 月经济活动数据与周一社库印记。

九 · 周一日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ AL2610 能否收复并站稳 23,976(MA10)与 24,000–24,005(夜盘高点)。这是判断周五夜盘属于修复还是反抽的唯一机械标准;失败则 23,945(夜盘收盘价兼 8月14日结算价)转为压力位。
  • ⚑ 下方顺序:23,945 → 23,885(8月14日收盘)→ 23,850/23,835(夜盘低点)→ 23,810(周五低点)→ 23,650(MA60)→ 23,600(SMM 新区间下沿)。
  • ⚑ 周一(8月17日)中国 7 月经济活动数据:工业增加值、社零、固定资产投资、房地产开发投资。在 7 月信贷收缩已确认的背景下,固投与地产两项对铝的判别价值高于工业增加值(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 周一(8月17日)SMM 社会库存印记:在 898,000 吨的低基数上是否继续去库。这是多头唯一未被削弱的一列能否延续的直接检验。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓方向:价格反弹而持仓继续增加为空头被动加仓;价格反弹而持仓减少为空头回补(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货对三个月升水(+2.00 美元)能否维持或扩大;以及能否收复 3,261 美元(8月6日)与 3,275–3,279 美元(8月13日)。下方参照 3,236.72 美元(MA20)与 3,180 美元。
  • ⚑ 美元指数能否延续周五跌势并跌破周内低点——若不能,则”美元破位”一项应视为已被证伪(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 霍尔木兹免费通行窗口今日到期后的实际执行安排,以及贝森特预告的对伊经济孤立措施是否于本周落地;油价与海运保费为传导路径。
  • ⚑ 现货一栏:A00 相对夜盘收盘价 23,945 的基差(隐含 −75 元)是否修复,以及 SMM 华南成交升水 60–100 元是否维持。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: no new price print exists for this edition

  • August 15 (Saturday) and August 16 (Sunday) are non-trading days on SHFE and LME, and SMM publishes no spot quotations on either. With the single exception described in the next block, every price carried here is the August 14 confirmed caliber.
  • The next session is Monday August 17, whose trading day already began with the night session that opened 21:00 Beijing on August 14.

⚑ The one new print of the weekend: the Friday night session closed FLAT at 23,945

  • SMM’s cross-metal weekend wrap, published 08:53 Beijing on August 16, records SHFE aluminium finishing the night session FLAT (0.00%) at 23,945 yuan/mt.
  • Caliber note: SMM strikes its overnight percentage against the previous settlement, and 23,945 is precisely the August 14 settlement of both AL2609 and AL2610, so the reading is internally consistent — unchanged on settlement, and +60 (+0.25%) against the August 14 day-session close of 23,885.
  • ⚑ Yesterday’s brief could report only the night OPEN (AL2608 23,905, AL2609 23,960, AL2610 23,975) and recorded the finish as unobserved. That gap is now closed.
  • ⚑ Night highs and lows, carried: AL2609 high 24,000, low 23,835; AL2610 high 24,005, low 23,850; AL2608 high 23,920, low 23,820.
  • ⚑ The 23,945 finish gives back 55–60 from the session’s own highs of 24,000–24,005.
  • ⚑ Whole-product night open interest 652,352, +12,655 — the largest night build of this sequence; night volume 151,099.

⚑ Moving averages: the night close is still 31 BELOW MA10

  • The averages are this brief’s own caliber, computed from SHFE’s own daily files, main-contract closes, ninety trading sessions (April 7 to August 14): MA5 24,135.00, MA10 23,976.00, MA20 23,640.75, MA30 23,456.33, MA40 23,347.50, MA60 23,650.00.
  • ⚑ Against those, the night close of 23,945 sits 190.00 BELOW MA5 and 31.00 BELOW MA10, while holding +304.25 over MA20, +488.67 over MA30, +597.50 over MA40 and +295.00 over MA60.
  • ⚑ The August 14 day close of 23,885 was the first close beneath MA10 since July 27. The night session narrowed the gap from −91 to −31 but did NOT reclaim it.
  • Twenty-session close range 23,010–24,285; sixty-session range 22,370–24,825.
  • SMM’s lowered band of August 14 stands: SHFE 23,600–24,450. The night close of 23,945 sits inside it, 345 above the floor and 505 below the ceiling.

The August 14 day session, carried unchanged

  • AL2609: open 24,145, high 24,170, low 23,810, close 23,885, settlement 23,945; −275 on the previous settlement (−1.14%) and −205 on the previous close (−0.85%); volume 154,553; open interest 214,610 (−16,098).
  • AL2610: open 24,100, high 24,170, low 23,795, close 23,885, settlement 23,945; volume 119,978; open interest 228,180 (+7,109).
  • AL2608: close 23,900, settlement 23,940, open interest 15,050 (−520).
  • ⚑ The roll is complete: AL2610’s 228,180 lots against AL2609’s 214,610, a lead of 13,570, where on August 12 AL2609 led by 26,839.
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest 639,697 (+2,577) — a third consecutive session of building, and it occurred across two sessions that fell 400 in total; volume 328,544.
  • On the week, carried: −155 (−0.64%) against August 7’s 24,040; week high 24,470 (Wednesday, the cycle high) and week low 23,810 (Friday), a 660-point range — an outside reversal week.

⚑ LME: no weekend print; +0.22% in the Friday overnight session

  • Official/Westmetall caliber, carried: August 14 cash settlement $3,248.00 (−$31.00), three-month $3,246.00 (−$29.00); cash-to-3M backwardation +$2.00.
  • ⚑ Down $125.00 (−3.71%) from the August 11 high of $3,373.00; cash −$31.50 (−0.96%) on the week.
  • ⚑ NEW (SMM caliber): LME aluminium +0.22% in the Friday overnight session; in the same table LME copper closed a SEVENTH consecutive weekly gain (+1.07% on the week) — the cross-metal context for aluminium’s own −0.96% week.
  • This brief’s own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements, sixty-one sessions): MA5 $3,307.00, MA10 $3,283.55, MA20 $3,236.72, MA40 $3,195.09, MA60 $3,337.01.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics caliber, carried without reconciliation: August 14 $3,247.70 (+$6.20, +0.19%); month +3.18%, year +24.74%.
  • ⚑ TE’s forecasts have been revised DOWN: Q3 to $3,276.08 (from $3,377.15) and twelve-month to $3,475.69 (from $3,580.89) — both cut against the August 15 caliber.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Where the price sits: the night close of 23,945 is at the upper edge of a REBOUND zone, not at a high. The cycle high of 24,470 and Friday’s low of 23,810 frame a 660-point range, and 23,945 sits 135 above that range’s floor, roughly the 20th percentile of it.
  • ⚑ The mechanical reading: the night session did two things at once — it HELD its floor (23,835 above Friday’s 23,810) and it FAILED its ceiling (23,945 below MA10 at 23,976). Holding the floor without reclaiming the average is a consolidation shape, not a reversal shape (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The largest night open-interest build of the sequence (+12,655) produced only a return to the settlement price. Building without advancing looks more like both sides re-establishing a standoff at this level than like directional money arriving (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The internal contradiction in the LME column persists: the flat price fell $125 across three sessions while the curve moved from contango to backwardation. Genuine surplus does not tighten the nearby (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ LME copper rising for seven straight weeks while LME aluminium fell on the week says this week’s weakness was aluminium’s own column, not a shared base-metals macro pressure (this is interpretation).

Spot: no weekend quotations; the August 14 caliber is carried

  • SMM A00 aluminium ingot (August 14): 23,870 yuan/mt (range 23,860–23,880), −250 (−1.04%) against August 13’s 24,120 — a second consecutive 250-yuan decline, from 24,370 on August 12.
  • ⚑ Basis: −30 against AL2608’s close of 23,900 and −15 against AL2609’s 23,885. On August 12 it was a +115 PREMIUM.
  • ⚑ New computation: measured instead against the Friday NIGHT close of 23,945, A00 at 23,870 implies a discount of −75 — meaning that if spot does not follow the night bounce on Monday, the basis weakens mechanically (this is a computation, not a new quotation).
  • ⚑ But the discount has NOT returned to the −100/−120 band of August 10–11. SMM’s own South China daily review of August 14, published 12:06, still places transactions at a PREMIUM of 60–100 against the SHFE 2608 contract, with mainstream quotations at −10 to 0.
  • The nine-region table for August 14, carried: Shanghai 23,870 (−250), Wuxi 23,860 (−260), Hangzhou 23,900 (−260), Central China 23,770 (−250), Foshan 23,920 (−280), Chongqing 23,830 (−250), Tianjin 23,920 (−200), Linyi 23,920 (−220), Shenyang 23,865 (−145).

Alumina: carried; softer in the night session

  • SMM alumina index, carried: 2,689.77 yuan/mt (−0.58), with Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Guizhou each −5.
  • Australian FOB, carried: $349/mt (+$1); a cargo traded at $374/mt CFR Malaysia.
  • ⚑ AO2610 closed +16 in the August 14 day session, against AL2609’s −205. ⚑ NEW: the most-traded alumina contract was −0.19% in the Friday night session (SMM caliber).
  • August national weighted average full cost is guided at 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt and cash cost at 2,530–2,650 (SMM, carried).
  • ⚑ Measured against a full-cost midpoint of roughly 2,760, the index at 2,689.77 leaves the industry below its full-cost line and above its cash-cost line — the mechanical boundary of this alumina downcycle (this is a computation).

Secondary and alloy: carried

  • ADC12, carried: 24,200 yuan/mt, down from 24,400; import losses now exceed 1,000 yuan/mt.
  • AD2610, carried: −510 (−2.16%) across the two sessions, a steeper fall than the AL main contract.
  • ⚑ NEW (SMM caliber): the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract was +0.24% in the Friday night session — the only contract in the complex to rise, against alumina’s −0.19% and aluminium’s flat.

Cross-market: the Friday finish (SMM caliber)

  • SHFE overnight: copper +0.49% (week −0.31%), aluminium flat, alumina most-traded −0.19%, cast aluminium alloy most-traded +0.24%, lead −0.22%, zinc +0.41%, tin +0.36%, nickel +0.07%.
  • LME: copper +0.26% (week +1.07%, a seventh consecutive weekly gain), aluminium +0.22%, lead +0.26%, zinc +0.45%, tin +0.36%, nickel +0.30%.
  • Precious: COMEX gold +0.26% (week +0.73%, a fourth consecutive weekly gain); SHFE gold +0.60% (week +1.68%); SHFE silver +0.57% (week +3.45%).
  • Energy: WTI +1.42% (week +5.4%); Brent +2.01% (week +6.31%, SMM caliber). ⊘ TE caliber has Brent at $88.52 on August 14 (+$1.45, +1.67%) and about +5% on the week.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The complex ranked itself in the night session: cast alloy (+0.24%) > aluminium (flat) > alumina (−0.19%). If that ordering persists on Monday it says the cost side is still conceding while the downstream alloy leg is relatively firm (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The static contradiction in the spot column is the item most worth watching: SMM’s own South China transactions are at a 60–100 PREMIUM while the close-derived basis is a −30 DISCOUNT. Both being true at once says the discount comes from contract selection and the roll, not from genuine physical surplus (this is interpretation).

3 · Inventory

No weekend print; the next one is Monday August 17

  • SMM social inventory, carried (the August 13 Thursday print): 898,000 mt, −35,000 week-on-week against August 6’s 933,000 and −19,000 against Monday August 10’s 917,000.
  • ⚑ The first print below 900,000 mt and the steepest Thursday draw of the series. The Thursday series reads 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000.
  • ⚑ Cumulatively, more than 570,000 mt has been removed since the early-May high of roughly 1.47 million mt (this is a computation).
  • LME stocks, carried: 248,300 mt, −1,700, a 34th consecutive session of decline; −8,100 on the week.
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory, carried: 25,500 mt, +1,500 week-on-week — ending TEN consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt.
  • Aluminium billet inventory, August 10 caliber, carried: +4,000 week-on-week.
  • ⚑ NEW (SMM, August 15): both social and in-factory billet inventories are described as low versus the same period in recent years, which preserves some ability for holders to keep prices firm — with the risk of subsequent buildup flagged.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Inventory is still the strongest column the bulls have, and nothing this weekend weakened it: ingot destocking through 900,000 mt, and LME stocks falling for a 34th session alongside a backwardated curve.
  • ⚑ But two fissures inside the column are now visible: cast alloy ingots ended ten weeks of destocking and turned to a build, and billet inventory turned up by 4,000. Both are small, and both run counter to the main series (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Monday’s print carries more discriminating value than usual: continued destocking from a base of 898,000 mt would confirm the draw has entered a supply-led phase, while a build would retroactively mark August 13 as a one-off caused by high prices deterring arrivals (this is interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The dollar: Friday’s fall was real, but the WEEK was flat

  • ⚑ SMM caliber: the dollar index fell 0.32% overnight to 99.64 — and finished the week at +0.04%, essentially unchanged.
  • TE caliber: 99.667 on August 14, −0.2970 (−0.30%); month −0.81%, year +1.85%.
  • ⊘ TE’s prose describes Friday’s level as approaching an August 7 two-month low of 95.53; that figure is inconsistent with the 99-handle series and appears to be a typographical error for 99.53, so it is not carried.
  • ⚑ The August 15 edition opened its macro column on the observation that the dollar had ‘finally broken.’ The weekly figure reframes it as a single-session event inside a flat week, and this brief accordingly downgrades the item from bullish to neutral-to-mildly-bullish (this is interpretation).

The Fed: hike odds keep falling, but the year is not cleared

  • CME FedWatch, August 14 caliber: September hike probability approximately 30.6%; a separate caliber prints 32%.
  • The path: about 82% on July 23 → about 50% a month ago → 51% on Tuesday → about 35% on Thursday → about 30.6% on Friday.
  • ⚑ The probability of AT LEAST ONE hike by year-end remains approximately 63% — the market has postponed the hike, not cancelled it.
  • Effective fed funds 3.63%; the next FOMC is September 15–16.

US data: the two prints that set Friday’s pricing (carried)

  • July retail sales: −0.6% m/m to $763.6 billion against +0.1% expected — the first decline in nine months and the worst since May 2025; the ex-autos-and-gas control reading was −0.2%.
  • University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment: 51.0 from 55.2, against 54.5 expected.
  • ⚑ Timing: retail sales landed 20:30 Beijing on August 14, thirty minutes before the night session opened — so the night session’s higher open was the first domestic pricing of that print.

⚑ China: July credit data is the weekend’s most consequential new macro fact

  • ⚑ M2 grew 7.7% year on year, below the 7.9% consensus and below June’s 8.0%.
  • ⚑ Outstanding yuan loans grew 5.1% year on year, below June’s 5.2% and a 5.3% consensus — a record low.
  • Outstanding total social financing grew 7.4% year on year, unchanged from June.
  • ⚑ The composition is worse than the headline: household loans, including mortgages, CONTRACTED by 460.3 billion yuan in July after adding 264.6 billion in June; corporate loans fell 130 billion after adding 1.5 trillion.
  • ⚑ January–July new loans total 10.38 trillion yuan against 12.87 trillion a year earlier; July is the SECOND monthly contraction in new loans of 2026.
  • ⚑ China’s July activity data — industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property development investment — is scheduled for MONDAY August 17.

Energy and geopolitics: direction unchanged, and the window expires today

  • Brent: $88.52/bbl on August 14 (+$1.45, +1.67%); about +5% on the week (TE) or +6.31% (SMM); month +4.20%, year +34.43%. TE forecasts Q3 $90.41 and twelve-month $104.28.
  • WTI: +1.42% overnight, +5.4% on the week.
  • ⚑ Defence Secretary Hegseth states the United States can maintain the naval blockade of Iranian ports INDEFINITELY; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports since the blockade was reimposed on July 13.
  • ⚑ Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged economic isolation measures ‘like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country,’ to run alongside the blockade.
  • ⚑ The fee-free 60-day transit window under the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17 by Trump and Pezeshkian expires around August 16 — today.
  • The IEA warns that reopening the strait is becoming more pressing as global oil stockpiles draw down.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ Bullish for aluminium: September hike odds down from 51% to about 30.6%; oil +5–6.3% on the week; the Hormuz window expiry and the flagged sanctions escalation put upside risk into the energy cost channel.
  • ⚑ Bearish for aluminium: the dollar was FLAT on the week rather than falling; China’s credit is contracting with a deteriorating composition; and roughly 63% odds of at least one hike by year-end means easing is not priced.
  • ⚑ Net reading: the macro column steps back from yesterday’s mildly-bullish to NEUTRAL, and the single variable responsible is the dollar’s weekly caliber (this is interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Overseas supply: one mitigation, one falsification

  • ⚑ Alunorte (mitigation): the 6.3 mt/yr refinery cut to 50% on August 11 on a natural-gas supply disruption from CELBA, part of New Fortress Energy. It has now PROCURED A SPOT LNG CARGO from a European energy firm that had previously supplied volumes to New Fortress for the Barcarena terminal, and has requested direct access to the Barcarena receiving and regasification terminal.
  • The cut has not been reversed; Norsk Hydro’s Q3 2026 Bauxite & Alumina impact estimate remains USD 75–100 million; Alunorte’s international arbitration against New Fortress, initiated in 2025, is unresolved.
  • ⚑ Indonesia’s earthquake (falsification): a magnitude-7.7 event struck 05:58 local on August 15 off Flores Island, epicentre about 68 km north-northwest of Ende, East Nusa Tenggara, depth 10 km, killing at least 47.
  • ⚑ SMM’s assessment: the impact on the aluminium chain is NEAR ZERO. Bauxite, alumina and the overwhelming majority of aluminium capacity sit in western Indonesia, generally more than 1,400 km from the epicentre; the nearest smelter, Sulawesi Morowali Huachin Aluminum, is approximately 624 km away and outside the 300 km damage radius; the tsunami wave height was under 0.4 m.
  • ⚑ It is listed here specifically so that it cannot be misread: this event does not belong in the bullish supply column.
  • EGA Al Taweelah, carried: running at 18% of capacity, with full pre-war capacity expected by Q1 2027; AED 1.5bn restoration capex; the recycling plant at 10%, full by end-2026. SMM calls the restart ‘faster than the market had previously expected.’
  • Tomago, carried: A$2.5bn (US$1.8bn) over ten years from 2029, with Tomago investing A$1.1bn and curtailing power at peak; Rio Tinto owns just over half.
  • Capacity awaiting restart, carried: Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end).

Domestic supply: output and capacity calibers carried

  • July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m (31-day basis); existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt at end-July, flat month-on-month (SMM).
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3%, +1.1 pp m/m; August forecast 78.5% (SMM).
  • July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m — the supply-side explanation for part of the social-inventory draw (carried).
  • Passive production cuts in southwest China continue (SMM, August 15).

⚑ Billet: July is the peak, and August is forecast lower

  • ⚑ SMM (August 15): the July billet operating rate was 58.3%, +1.1 pp m/m and +5.2 pp y/y — a year-to-date high and a three-year high for the period.
  • ⚑ The August forecast is a retreat to approximately 56.9%.
  • ⚑ Processing fees: strong through Q2, sharply lower from the June highs, and now BELOW the industry average production cost, with further signs of weakening into August.
  • ⚑ Suppressing factors: weak domestic demand in the H2 off-season; falling extrusion operating rates; a narrowing China-versus-overseas price spread weakening export momentum and intensifying fee competition; and some extrusion enterprises switching to remelted aluminium ingot substitutes, which SMM describes as ‘a natural ceiling’ for billet processing fees.
  • Supporting factors: tight liquid-aluminium supply; continuing passive cuts in the southwest; low social and in-factory inventories.

Alumina and cost (carried)

  • SMM alumina index 2,689.77 (−0.58); Australian FOB $349 (+$1); a cargo at $374 CFR Malaysia.
  • August national weighted average full cost 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt; cash cost 2,530–2,650.
  • July’s cost rebound was driven by firmer bauxite: rising CIF costs for imported ore and persistently tight domestic supply. For August there is no clear timeline for domestic supply recovery, and imported-ore shipments are expected to shrink further in the rainy season.
  • Guinea’s H1 bauxite exports were a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y; refinery bauxite stocks about 96 days (carried).

Downstream demand (carried)

  • SMM’s July aluminium processing PMI: 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, with all seven sub-sectors contracting — foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, plate/sheet/strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary alloy 43.9.
  • ⊘ China January–July property investment −6.4% and new starts −36.1% (an unconfirmed expectations caliber; the actuals arrive August 17).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net change to the fundamentals column this weekend is negative: Alunorte’s cost-side bullish item was partly offset, the Indonesian earthquake supplied no replacement bullish item, and billet — until now the one downstream series still rising — has been explicitly marked by the analyst who compiles it as peaking in July and retreating in August.
  • ⚑ The billet mechanism deserves separate emphasis: processing fees are already below the industry average production cost, and extruders can substitute remelted ingot. That means the fee cannot repair even if the operating rate holds — a structural ceiling, not a seasonal dip (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The one uncontested bullish supply item remains casting-ingot output at −15.1% y/y: it explains both the social-inventory draw and the tightness in spot, and it depends on no overseas event (this is interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

No weekend trade; SMM’s August 14 South China review (12:06) is carried

  • Mainstream quotations: −10 to 0 against the SHFE 2608 contract, improved from −30 to −10 on August 12.
  • ⚑ Transaction level: a PREMIUM of 60–100 against the SHFE 2608 contract.
  • Holder behaviour: firm pricing attempted in the morning; as bearish sentiment built into the weekend the willingness to cash out early rose, and most holders shaded offers lower.
  • Downstream behaviour: initially standing aside in anticipation of lower prices, then restocking in modest volumes at the reduced prints; traders concentrated on picking up discounted cargo.
  • Overall transactions: MODERATE.
  • Supply description: inventory returned to a destocking path, while circulating supply stayed relatively ample, with some holders holding premium positions despite slower sales velocity.

Regional structure (August 14 caliber, carried)

  • East China: Shanghai 23,870 (−250), Wuxi 23,860 (−260), Hangzhou 23,900 (−260).
  • Central China: 23,770 (−250) — still the lowest of the nine regions.
  • South China: Foshan 23,920 (−280); Nanhai 24,480 (−280, August 13 caliber).
  • Others: Chongqing 23,830 (−250), Tianjin 23,920 (−200), Linyi 23,920 (−220), Shenyang 23,865 (−145).
  • ⚑ Shenyang fell only 145 and Tianjin only 200 while Foshan fell 280 — the pullback was deepest in South China and shallowest in the north (this is a computation).

Interpretation: sentiment indicators (qualitative)

  • Shipment willingness: FIRM-TO-STRONG (holders actively shaded offers to move cargo, with weekend cash-out willingness rising).
  • Purchasing willingness: NEUTRAL-TO-WEAK (stand aside first, restock modestly second; no concentrated buying).
  • Trader participation: NEUTRAL-TO-FIRM (focused on absorbing discounted cargo).
  • ⚑ Composite reading: the spot column followed the futures down without panic — quotations improved, transactions stayed at a premium, and volume was only ‘moderate.’ That is not in conflict with the strength in inventory, but it supplies no additional upward push either (this is interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ Social inventory at 898,000 mt, −35,000 week-on-week, the first print under 900,000 mt and the steepest Thursday draw of the series.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 248,300 mt, a 34th consecutive daily decline, −8,100 on the week.
  • ⚑ LME cash-to-3M holds a +$2.00 backwardation, and the tightening occurred while the flat price was falling.
  • ⚑ The Friday night session closed FLAT at 23,945 and held 23,835, above Friday’s day low of 23,810 — the low was not breached.
  • ⚑ SMM’s South China transactions remain at a 60–100 PREMIUM to the 2608 contract, with mainstream quotes improved from −30/−10 to −10/0.
  • July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, directly reducing warehouse-eligible units.
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%, continuing to squeeze ingot casting.
  • Billet social and in-factory inventories both low versus the same period in recent years, preserving holder pricing power.
  • ⚑ September Fed hike odds down from 51% to about 30.6%.
  • ⚑ Brent +5–6.3% on the week and WTI +5.4%, lifting the energy cost channel.
  • ⚑ The Hormuz fee-free window expires today; the blockade is called ‘indefinite’; 59 vessels have been redirected; Bessent has flagged escalated measures.
  • Alunorte’s 6.3 mt/yr refinery is still at 50%; the cut has not been reversed.
  • Passive cuts in southwest China continue, capping domestic operating-capacity growth.
  • August imported-bauxite shipments expected to shrink further in the rainy season, keeping the raw-material cost side firm.
  • Existing capacity at 46.29 million mt is flat month-on-month, close to the capacity ceiling.
  • ⚑ LME copper’s seventh consecutive weekly gain indicates the base-metals funding environment has not deteriorated.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ The dollar index was +0.04% ON THE WEEK — Friday’s decline did not constitute a trend.
  • ⚑ China’s July outstanding yuan loans +5.1% y/y, a record low; M2 +7.7%, below consensus.
  • ⚑ Household loans −460.3 billion yuan and corporate loans −130 billion; the second monthly loan contraction of 2026.
  • ⚑ January–July new loans 10.38 trillion yuan against 12.87 trillion a year earlier.
  • ⚑ The billet operating rate peaked at 58.3% in July, with August forecast to retreat to 56.9%.
  • ⚑ Billet processing fees are already below the industry average production cost, and extruders substituting remelted ingot impose a structural ceiling.
  • ⚑ Alunorte has procured spot LNG and requested direct terminal access, reducing the tail risk of a prolonged outage.
  • ⚑ Indonesia’s magnitude-7.7 earthquake was assessed as near-zero for the aluminium chain, supplying no bullish supply item.
  • ⚑ The August 14 close lost MA10 (the first break since July 27), and the night close is still 31 below it.
  • ⚑ The week was an outside reversal: high 24,470, low 23,810, week −155.
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest built by 1,345 and 2,577 on two falling sessions and by a further 12,655 overnight — the shape of fresh shorts rather than long liquidation (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ SMM lowered both bands: SHFE to 23,600–24,450 and LME to $3,180–3,330.
  • ⚑ Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory turned to a 1,500 mt weekly build at 25,500 mt, ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking.
  • Billet inventory turned to a 4,000 mt weekly build.
  • ⚑ ADC12 fell from 24,400 to 24,200, and AD2610 lost 510 (−2.16%) in two sessions, a steeper fall than the AL main contract.
  • July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, with all seven sub-sectors contracting.
  • ⚑ Roughly 63% odds of at least one hike by year-end means easing is not priced.
  • ⚑ TE cut its LME forecasts to $3,276.08 (Q3) and $3,475.69 (twelve-month).
  • EGA Al Taweelah is restarting faster than expected (18% now, full capacity Q1 2027).
  • Tomago has been rescued with A$2.5bn over ten years from 2029, reducing expected overseas curtailment.
  • ⊘ China’s January–July property investment and new starts remain deeply negative (to be confirmed August 17).

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The nearby evidence — inventory, curve, and the South China transaction premium — was not weakened at all this weekend, while the forward evidence — credit, billet, alumina cost, and the dollar’s weekly caliber — weakened in four places at once, which is the configuration in which a market holds its floor and cannot reclaim its averages, exactly what the Friday night session did in miniature, so aluminium is more likely to consolidate between 23,650 (MA60) and 23,976 (MA10) in the short term, with direction decided by two events that land on the same day: China’s July activity data and Monday’s social-inventory print.

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether AL2610 reclaims and holds 23,976 (MA10) and 24,000–24,005 (the night highs) — the only mechanical test of whether Friday night was a repair or a retracement. If it fails, 23,945 (the night close and the August 14 settlement) converts into resistance.
  • ⚑ The downside sequence: 23,945 → 23,885 (August 14 close) → 23,850/23,835 (night lows) → 23,810 (Friday’s low) → 23,650 (MA60) → 23,600 (SMM’s new band floor).
  • ⚑ Monday’s (August 17) China July activity data: industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property development investment. With July’s credit contraction already confirmed, the FAI and property lines carry more discriminating value for aluminium than the industrial-output line (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Monday’s (August 17) SMM social-inventory print: whether destocking continues from a base of 898,000 mt. This is the direct test of whether the bulls’ one unweakened column persists.
  • ⚑ The direction of whole-product open interest: a rally on rising open interest is shorts being pressed; a rally on falling open interest is short covering (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether the LME cash-to-3M backwardation (+$2.00) persists or widens, and whether LME reclaims $3,261 (August 6) and $3,275–3,279 (August 13). Below, the references are $3,236.72 (MA20) and $3,180.
  • ⚑ Whether the dollar index extends Friday’s decline and breaks the week’s low — if it does not, the ‘dollar break’ item should be treated as falsified (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The practical arrangements after the Hormuz fee-free window expires today, and whether Bessent’s flagged Iran isolation measures land this week; oil prices and marine insurance premiums are the transmission path.
  • ⚑ The spot column: whether A00’s implied −75 basis against the night close of 23,945 repairs, and whether SMM’s South China 60–100 transaction premium holds.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突或写稿时未取得之数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers or data not retrievable at the time of writing.