Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

SHFE reclaims its 10-day average at 24,035 and the basis flips positive. China's July data miss on all three lines.沪铝收复 10 日均线至 24,035,基差转正;中国 7 月数据三项全部不及预期。

Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Tuesday August 18 (Asia), 09:25 Beijing, with the SHFE day session twenty-five minutes old and its print UNOBSERVED at writing. The AUGUST 17 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 17 to 01:00 August 18) IS ALSO UNOBSERVED: SMM had NOT published its Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary as of 09:25 (the August 17 edition published at 09:11), and no new SMM A00 quotation for August 18 exists (SMM quotes around 11:00 Beijing). NEW PRINTS CONFIRMED THIS EDITION. FIRST, SHFE, taken from the exchange's own August 17 daily file: AL2610, now the main contract with open interest of 245,033 (+16,853) leading AL2609 by 48,854 lots — open 23,975, high 24,135, low 23,850, close 24,035, settlement 23,990; +90 on the previous settlement (+0.38%), +45 on settlement-over-settlement (+0.19%), and +150 (+0.63%) close-over-close against August 14's 23,885; volume 134,217. AL2609: open 23,960, high 24,115, low 23,835, close 24,015, settlement 23,980; +70 on the previous settlement, +130 (+0.54%) close-over-close; volume 135,153, open interest 196,179 (−18,431) — the roll accelerating. AL2608 traded its LAST TRADING DAY: open 23,905, high 24,065, low 23,820, close 23,930, settlement 23,980, open interest 14,875 (−175), volume 1,160. Whole-product volume 323,919, open interest 645,941 (+6,244). ALUMINA, same file: AO2610 main with open interest 271,115 (+1,597) — open 2,695, high 2,710, low 2,683, close 2,697, settlement 2,696, +9 on the previous settlement, +1 close-over-close; volume 159,353. AO2609 close 2,700, settlement 2,698, open interest 95,874 (−7,836). Whole-product alumina volume 220,312, open interest 539,534 (−5,515). CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY, same file: AD2610 main with open interest 18,402 (+122) — open 23,170, high 23,385, low 23,135, close 23,230, settlement 23,250, +40 on the previous settlement, +95 (+0.41%) close-over-close; volume 6,222. MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber recomputed from SHFE's own daily files, main-contract closes, 101 trading sessions to August 17: SHFE aluminium MA5 24,109.00, MA10 24,015.50, MA20 23,692.00, MA30 23,497.33, MA40 23,347.62, MA60 23,645.42 — the close of 24,035 is 19.50 ABOVE MA10 and 74.00 below MA5, and holds +343.00 over MA20, +537.67 over MA30, +687.38 over MA40 and +389.58 over MA60. Twenty-session close range 23,160–24,285; sixty-session 22,370–24,825. Alumina MA5 2,702.20, MA10 2,690.90, MA20 2,686.70, MA30 2,690.67, MA40 2,715.70, MA60 2,763.43. Cast alloy MA5 23,396.00, MA10 23,435.00, MA20 23,267.75, MA30 23,166.33, MA40 23,052.38, MA60 23,101.58. SECOND, LME (Westmetall official, new row): August 17 cash settlement $3,272.00 (+$24.00), three-month $3,272.00 (+$26.00) — the cash-to-3M spread is $0.00, down from +$2.00 on August 14; stocks 246,925 mt, −1,375, a 35th consecutive daily decline and −7,975 from August 10's 254,900. Cash is −$101.00 (−3.00%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00. This brief's own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,295.90, MA10 $3,284.75, MA20 $3,242.53, MA40 $3,191.76, MA60 $3,329.78 — cash at $3,272.00 sits below MA5, MA10 and MA60 and above MA20 and MA40. ⊘ TradingEconomics carries aluminium at $3,259.45, +$11.75 (+0.36%), month +3.89%, year +26.05%, with a Q3 forecast of $3,276.08 and twelve-month $3,475.69; a separate caliber prints $3,256.93 (+0.28%). Neither reconciles with Westmetall's $3,272.00 and none is reconciled here. THIRD, SPOT: SMM A00 24,070 yuan/mt on August 17, range 24,060–24,080, +200 (+0.84%) — reversing two consecutive 250 declines from 24,120 (August 13) and 23,870 (August 14). Basis +55 against AL2609's close of 24,015 and +35 against AL2610's 24,035, against −30/−15 on August 14. SMM's August 17 spot midday commentary (14:32): East China transactions in a range of 10 discount to 10 premium against the SHFE 09 contract; Central China at a discount of 90–110 against the 09 contract; near-month spread in contango of 20 to 50 yuan/mt; East China shipment sentiment index 3.15 (+0.01 w/w) and procurement 3.40 (+0.06 w/w); Central China shipment 3.09 (unchanged) and procurement 2.90 (−0.07 w/w); aluminium ingot inventory in major consumption areas −500 mt w/w with only Gongyi building; trading described as sluggish with low stockpiling sentiment and overall procurement sentiment down week on week from last Friday. ⊘ Internal tension, flagged and not reconciled: the East China procurement index rose 0.06 while the same article's narrative says procurement sentiment fell week on week. FOURTH, INVENTORY: SMM social inventory 886,000 mt on the Monday August 17 print, −12,000 against Thursday August 13's 898,000 and −31,000 against Monday August 10's 917,000. Monday series 917,000 → 886,000; Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000. FIFTH, CHINA JULY ACTIVITY DATA, released August 17 at 15:00 Beijing rather than the usual 10:00: industrial output +4.5% y/y against a 4.8% consensus and 5.3% in June; retail sales +0.6% y/y against a 1.5% Reuters poll and 1.0% in June; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% y/y against a −6.0% poll and −5.7% in the first half; surveyed urban unemployment 5.2% from 5.0% in June; new-home prices −0.1% m/m (matching June) and −3.2% y/y (June −3.3%). ⊘ A private survey by Li Daokui's team at Tsinghua puts the broad unemployment rate at 10.2% in July against the official ~5%; carried as a separate caliber only. SIXTH, OVERSEAS SUPPLY — A CORRECTION TO THIS BRIEF'S OWN CARRIED POSITION: Hydro's release of August 13 has Alunorte ramping alumina production back to full capacity after Brazil's ANP approved the refinery as a self-importer of natural gas and it secured temporary terminal access from CELBA while a long-term solution is pursued; total lost production is estimated at 100,000–120,000 mt and the Q3 2026 Bauxite & Alumina impact is unchanged at USD 75–100 million, reflecting reduced production plus gas purchased above the contract price. Market reaction on August 14: NALCO −5.5%, Hindalco approximately −2%, Vedanta approximately −1%; MCX aluminium −1.73% to INR 346.80. SEVENTH, LME WARRANT STRUCTURE — ⊘ SECONDARY SOURCES ONLY, NOT PRIMARY: reports of August 14 and August 15 have one participant holding 80–90% of all warranted aluminium stocks, and above 90% once cash-date positions are included, which classifies as a dominant position under LME rules; above 90% the holder must make metal available to the cash market free of charge, and below it may charge up to 0.25% of the cash price per day. The same reporting puts Russian brands at approximately 95% of available LME aluminium, off-warrant stocks at 85,645 mt, Indian registered stocks at 12,450 mt from 236,000 mt twelve months ago, one short position at 155,000–225,000 mt with the upper end near 90% of registered stocks, annualised Gulf output loss at approximately 2 million mt, and an Asian Q2 physical premium of $350–353/mt described as an eleven-year high, with a delivery test named for August 19. ⊘ That same reporting puts the cash-to-3M backwardation at $8 against Westmetall's $2.00 (August 14) and $0.00 (August 17); the calibers are not reconciled and the primary Westmetall figures are the ones used in this brief. EIGHTH, CROSS-METAL: LME copper opened $13,992.00, low $13,975.50, high $14,150.00, close $14,148.50, +0.75%; volume 20,200 lots and open interest 253,000 (+1,896). The cash-to-3M backwardation widened to $518.50, described as the strongest since October 2021; stocks fell for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 mt, the lowest since February, with nearly half of the remainder earmarked for withdrawal. NINTH, MACRO: TradingEconomics has the dollar index at 99.534 in the Tuesday August 18 session, −0.005 (−0.01%), with a page header of 99.561, −0.0273 (−0.03%); month −1.38% to −1.40%, year +1.29% to +1.32%. ⊘ A separate TE caliber has the index at 99.40 on Monday, the lowest since June 2026, and describes it falling to around 99.5 in a third consecutive declining session; the Monday and Tuesday calibers are printed side by side and not reconciled. FED: Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 17 at 20:35 EDT, prices the September 16 FOMC at 64.7% hold and 35.3% hike, with a 0% chance of a cut, off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.330; the target range is 3.50–3.75%, unchanged at the July 29 meeting. ⊘ That 35.3% is ABOVE the approximately 30.6% CME FedWatch caliber of August 14 and the approximately 33–35% TE narrative caliber; the direction of travel over the last two sessions is HIGHER, not lower. ENERGY: Brent $91.027 on the August 18 caliber, +$0.16 (+0.17%), month +2.03%, year +38.36%, Q3 forecast $90.411; TE's August 17 narrative has Brent climbing above $91 on Tuesday for a third consecutive session after President Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal, with Hormuz access unresolved and Middle Eastern producers finding alternative routes. Brent is +$2.49 (+2.81%) against the $88.54 carried yesterday. CARRIED UNCHANGED. SPOT AND COST: ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt with the import loss above 1,000 yuan/mt; theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium 865 yuan/mt on the August 14 caliber; registered cast alloy warrants 18,311 mt (+333); A00-to-Foshan-mixed-extrusion-scrap spread approximately 2,250 yuan/mt. ALUMINA: SMM index 2,689.77 (−0.58) on the August 14 caliber with NO new print observed at writing; Australian FOB $349 (+$1); a cargo at $374 CFR Malaysia; August national weighted-average full cost 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt and cash cost 2,530–2,650 yuan/mt. INVENTORY: cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w, ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt; billet inventory +4,000 w/w on the August 10 caliber with both social and in-factory stocks low versus recent years. FUNDAMENTALS: July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m on a 31-day caliber; month-end existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt, flat m/m; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; July billet operating rate 58.3%, a year-to-date and three-year high, with an August forecast of approximately 56.9% and processing fees already below the industry average production cost; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting (foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, sheet and strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary aluminium alloy 43.9); passive cuts in southwest China continuing; Guinea first-half bauxite exports a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y, with refinery bauxite stocks near 96 days. DOWNSTREAM: CPCA July passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y; internal-combustion retail 510,000 units, −41%; NEV retail 951,000 units, −3.9% with penetration 65.1%; NEV exports 540,000 units, +147.8%. OVERSEAS SUPPLY: EGA Al Taweelah at 18% of capacity with full capacity expected Q1 2027 and repair capex of 1.5 billion dirhams; Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support over ten years from 2029; Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end) pending restart. CHINA CREDIT: July M2 +7.7% y/y against 7.9% expected and 8.0% in June; outstanding yuan loans +5.1% against a 5.3% consensus, a record low; TSF stock +7.4% unchanged; household loans −460.3 billion yuan; corporate loans −130 billion; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion against 12.87 trillion a year earlier — the second monthly contraction of 2026. US DATA: July retail sales −0.6% m/m to $763.6 billion against +0.1% expected, the first decline in nine months, control group −0.2%; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0 from 55.2 against 54.5 expected; July producer prices unchanged rather than higher. GEOPOLITICS: the fee-free Hormuz transit window under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum expired around August 16 and post-expiry arrangements remain unobserved; Hegseth has called the naval blockade of Iranian ports indefinite; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels since July 13; Bessent has flagged unprecedented economic isolation measures. SMM's forecast bands, carried: SHFE 23,600–24,450; LME $3,180–3,330.
Steven Yuan
NIGHT SESSION PRINT UNOBSERVED Written 09:25 Beijing, Tuesday Aug 18. SMM's Morning Meeting Summary not yet published; the Aug 17 night print is not in this brief
⚑ SHFE RECLAIMS MA10 — 24,035 AL2610 close +150 (+0.63%) on Aug 14. First close above MA10 (24,015.50, own caliber) since Aug 13
The four-edition break is repaired 19.50 ABOVE MA10, 74.00 below MA5 (24,109.00). Day high 24,135, low 23,850
⚑ BASIS FLIPS TO A +55 PREMIUM A00 24,070 vs AL2609's 24,015. Was −30 on Aug 14. Spot outran the contract
⚑ A00 24,070, +200 (+0.84%) Range 24,060–24,080. Reverses two consecutive −250 sessions (24,120 → 23,870 → 24,070)
⚑ MONDAY DESTOCK HOLDS — 886,000 mt −12,000 vs Thursday's 898,000; −31,000 vs Monday Aug 10's 917,000. The bulls' one test passed
Only Gongyi built SMM daily caliber: ingot inventory in major consumption areas −500 mt w/w, Gongyi the sole build
⚑ CHINA JULY MISSES ALL THREE LINES Released 15:00, not the usual 10:00. IP +4.5% vs 4.8%; retail +0.6% vs 1.5%; Jan–Jul FAI −6.7% vs −6.0%
FAI steepens to −6.7% from −5.7% The half-year rate was −5.7%. Investment contraction is accelerating, not stabilising
Unemployment 5.2%, homes −3.2% y/y From 5.0% in June. New-home prices −0.1% m/m, matching June; y/y narrows from −3.3%
⚑ ALUNORTE RAMPS BACK TO FULL Hydro, Aug 13: ANP approves gas self-import, CELBA terminal deal. This brief's carried bull item is WITHDRAWN
Lost output 100–120kt, impact unchanged Q3 Bauxite & Alumina hit still USD 75–100mn. NALCO −5.5%, Hindalco ~−2% on the news
⚑ LME BACKWARDATION GOES TO ZERO Aug 17 cash $3,272.00 = 3M $3,272.00. Was +$2.00. The curve flattened as the price rose
⚑ COPPER WIDENS TO $518.50 Strongest since October 2021, from ~$434. Close $14,148.50, +0.75%. The gap widened, not closed
LME stocks 246,925, 35th straight draw −1,375 on the day, −7,975 from Aug 10's 254,900. Cash −$101.00 from the Aug 11 high of $3,373.00
⊘ WARRANTS: 80–90% IN ONE HAND Secondary sources only. >90% including the cash date — a dominant position. Russian brands ~95%
⊘ Short 155–225kt, Aug 19 delivery test Upper end ≈90% of registered stocks. Off-warrant 85,645 mt. Asian Q2 premium $350–353, an 11-year high
⚑ TRUMP WON'T EXTEND THE INTERIM DEAL Brent $91.03, third consecutive higher session, +$2.49 (+2.81%) on the $88.54 carried yesterday
⚑ HIKE ODDS RISE TO 35.3% Investing.com, Aug 17 20:35 EDT: hold 64.7%, hike 35.3%, cut 0%. Above the ~30.6% Aug 14 FedWatch caliber
⊘ Dollar: two calibers, flat vs lower TE Tuesday 99.534 (−0.01%) / header 99.561 (−0.03%); a separate TE caliber has Monday at 99.40, lowest since June
Aluminium led the complex on Monday Close-over-close: aluminium +0.63% > cast alloy +0.41% (23,230) > alumina +0.04% (2,697). Friday's ranking inverted
AL2608 traded its last day Close 23,930, settlement 23,980, OI 14,875. AL2610 now main at 245,033 (+16,853), leading AL2609 by 48,854
⚑ Whole-product OI 645,941 (+6,244) But against the night's 652,352 print the day session shed 6,411 — short covering, not fresh length (derivation)
East China spot −10 to +10 vs 09 Central China −90 to −110. Near-month spread in CONTANGO of 20–50. Trading described as sluggish
⊘ Sentiment indices contradict the text East China procurement 3.40 (+0.06 w/w) while the same article says procurement sentiment fell w/w
No new alumina index at writing Carried 2,689.77 (Aug 14). AO2610 closed 2,697 (+1), above MA10/MA20, below MA5/MA40/MA60

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与未观测项

  • 本期写于 8月18日(周二)北京时间 09:25。上期所日盘已开出 25 分钟,其印记不在本期之内。
  • ⚑ 8月17日夜盘(8月17日 21:00 至 8月18日 01:00)亦未观测:截至 09:25,SMM 尚未发布《铝晨会纪要》(8月17日一期发布于 09:11)。
  • ⚑ 亦无 8月18日的新 SMM A00 报价(SMM 通常于 11:00 前后报价)。

⚑ 沪铝:8月17日日盘收复 MA10(数据取自上期所自身日行情文件)

  • ⚑ AL2610(现为主力,持仓 245,033 手,+16,853,领先 AL2609 达 48,854 手):开 23,975,高 24,135,低 23,850,收 24,035,结算 23,990;较前结算价 +90(+0.38%),结算对结算 +45(+0.19%),收盘对收盘较 8月14日的 23,885 上涨 150 元(+0.63%);成交 134,217 手。
  • AL2609:开 23,960,高 24,115,低 23,835,收 24,015,结算 23,980;较前结算价 +70,收盘对收盘 +130(+0.54%);成交 135,153 手,持仓 196,179 手(−18,431),移仓加速。
  • AL2608:8月17日为最后交易日。开 23,905,高 24,065,低 23,820,收 23,930,结算 23,980;持仓 14,875 手(−175),成交 1,160 手。
  • 品种合计:成交 323,919 手,持仓 645,941 手(+6,244)。

⚑ 均线:连续四期标注的破位已修复

  • 均线为本简报自建口径,取自上期所自身日行情文件,主力合约收盘价,101 个交易日至 8月17日:MA5 24,109.00、MA10 24,015.50、MA20 23,692.00、MA30 23,497.33、MA40 23,347.62、MA60 23,645.42。
  • ⚑ 收盘 24,035:高于 MA10 19.50 元——为 8月13日以来首次收于 MA10 之上;低于 MA5 74.00 元;高于 MA20 343.00 元、MA30 537.67 元、MA40 687.38 元、MA60 389.58 元。
  • 20 个交易日收盘价区间 23,160–24,285;60 个交易日区间 22,370–24,825。SMM 预期区间维持 23,600–24,450。

氧化铝与铸造铝合金(同一日行情文件)

  • AO2610(主力,持仓 271,115 手,+1,597):开 2,695,高 2,710,低 2,683,收 2,697,结算 2,696;较前结算价 +9,收盘对收盘 +1;成交 159,353 手。AO2609 收 2,700,结算 2,698,持仓 95,874 手(−7,836)。氧化铝品种合计成交 220,312 手,持仓 539,534 手(−5,515)。
  • AD2610(主力,持仓 18,402 手,+122):开 23,170,高 23,385,低 23,135,收 23,230,结算 23,250;较前结算价 +40,收盘对收盘 +95(+0.41%);成交 6,222 手。
  • 氧化铝均线(自建口径):MA5 2,702.20、MA10 2,690.90、MA20 2,686.70、MA30 2,690.67、MA40 2,715.70、MA60 2,763.43。
  • 铸造铝合金均线(自建口径):MA5 23,396.00、MA10 23,435.00、MA20 23,267.75、MA30 23,166.33、MA40 23,052.38、MA60 23,101.58。

⚑ 伦铝:新增行,而升水结构归零

  • ⚑ Westmetall 官方口径:8月17日现货结算 3,272.00 美元(+24.00),三个月 3,272.00 美元(+26.00)。现货对三个月价差为 0.00 美元,较 8月14日的 +2.00 美元进一步收窄。
  • 库存 246,925 吨,减少 1,375 吨,为连续第 35 个交易日下降;较 8月10日的 254,900 吨累计减少 7,975 吨。
  • 现货价较 8月11日周期高点 3,373.00 美元累计下跌 101.00 美元(−3.00%)。
  • 本简报自建伦铝均线(Westmetall 现货结算价):MA5 3,295.90、MA10 3,284.75、MA20 3,242.53、MA40 3,191.76、MA60 3,329.78 美元。现货 3,272.00 低于 MA5、MA10 与 MA60,高于 MA20 与 MA40。
  • ⊘ TE 口径报 3,259.45 美元(+11.75,+0.36%),月 +3.89%、年 +26.05%,三季度预测 3,276.08 美元、十二个月 3,475.69 美元;另有一口径报 3,256.93 美元(+0.28%)。两者均与 Westmetall 的 3,272.00 不一致,本期不作调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 价格位置:24,035 位于 8月12日周期高点 24,470 与 8月14日低点 23,795 所构成的 675 元区间内,自低点起算 240 元,约处该区间 36% 分位——为回调后的中位偏下,而非高位区(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 8月13–14 日两个交易日累计下跌 400 元(24,285 → 23,885),周一收复 150 元,回撤修复比例约 37.5%(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 机制读数由「守底而不能收复均线」转为「守底并收复均线」,但收复幅度仅 19.50 元。收复后的首次回踩能否守住 24,015.50,比创出新高更具判别价值——收复失败的回踩,其技术含义劣于从未修复的破位(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 板块内部排序周一发生反转:按收盘对收盘计,沪铝 +0.63% > 铸造铝合金 +0.41% > 氧化铝 +0.04%。周五夜盘的排序(合金 > 铝 > 氧化铝)已被推翻,铝端自身领涨(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 持仓的跨口径推算:日盘收盘品种合计持仓 645,941 手,官方口径较前一交易日 +6,244 手;但对照周五夜盘所报的 652,352 手,日盘净减 6,411 手。价格上涨而持仓自夜盘水平回落,形态更接近空头回补而非多头新增(此为跨口径推算,两口径并非完全可比)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:A00 单日上涨 200 元,基差由贴水翻转为升水

  • ⚑ SMM A00 铝锭(8月17日):24,070 元/吨(区间 24,060–24,080),上涨 200 元(+0.84%)。
  • ⚑ 逆转此前连续两日各跌 250 元的走势:8月13日 24,120 → 8月14日 23,870 → 8月17日 24,070。
  • ⚑ 基差:对 AL2609 收盘价 24,015 升水 55 元;对 AL2610 收盘价 24,035 升水 35 元。8月14日为 −30 / −15,即基差单日摆动 +85 / +50 元。
  • SMM 8月17日现货午评(14:32):华东成交价区间为对 SHFE 09 合约贴水 10 元至升水 10 元;华中成交价对 09 合约贴水 90–110 元;近月合约价差为正向 20–50 元(contango)。
  • ⊘ 内部张力,列出但不调和:同一篇报道给出华东采购情绪指数 3.40(周环比 +0.06),但正文表述为「采购情绪较上周五周环比回落」。

氧化铝:写稿时无新指数印记

  • SMM 氧化铝指数(8月14日口径,延续):2,689.77 元/吨(−0.58);山东、河南、山西、贵州四地各 −5 元。写稿时未观测到新印记。
  • 澳洲 FOB:349 美元/吨(+1);另有一船以 374 美元/吨 CFR 马来西亚成交(延续)。
  • ⚑ 期货端:AO2610 于 8月17日收 2,697 元,较前结算价 +9 元,收盘对收盘仅 +1 元——在沪铝上涨 150 元的同一交易日,氧化铝几乎持平。
  • 8 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,700–2,820 元/吨,加权平均现金成本 2,530–2,650 元/吨(SMM,延续)。

再生铝与合金(延续)

  • ADC12:24,200 元/吨,自 24,400 元回落;进口亏损已超过 1,000 元/吨。
  • ADC12 现货对 AD2610 的理论升水:865 元/吨(8月14日口径)。
  • 注册铸造铝合金仓单:8月14日 18,311 吨,较前一交易日增加 333 吨。
  • A00 与佛山地区混合铝挤压废料价差:约 2,250 元/吨。
  • SMM 展望:ADC12 短期区间震荡——原料成本偏高构成下方支撑,高温淡季终端需求疲弱限制上方空间。

⚑ 跨品种:昨日提出的曲线对比已经解算,而结果不利于铝

  • ⚑ 铝:8月17日现货 3,272.00 美元、三个月 3,272.00 美元——升水归零。库存连续第 35 日下降至 246,925 吨。
  • ⚑ 铜:开 13,992.00 美元,低 13,975.50 美元,高 14,150.00 美元,收 14,148.50 美元,+0.75%;成交 20,200 手,持仓增至 253,000 手(+1,896)。
  • ⚑ 铜现货对三个月升水扩大至 518.50 美元,被描述为 2021年10月以来最强;库存连续第 42 个交易日下降至 204,975 吨,为 2 月以来最低,其中近半数已被标记待提取。

⊘ 伦铝仓单集中度(仅二手来源,非一手,谨慎引用)

  • ⊘ 8月14日与 8月15日的报道称:单一参与者持有全部注册铝仓单的 80–90%;若计入现货日头寸则超过 90%,按 LME 规则构成「支配性头寸」。
  • ⊘ 规则机制:份额超过 90% 时,持有方须无偿向现货市场提供金属;低于该阈值后,可按每日不超过现货价 0.25% 收费。
  • ⊘ 同源数据:俄罗斯品牌约占可用伦铝的 95%;非注册(off-warrant)库存 85,645 吨;印度注册库存 12,450 吨(十二个月前为 236,000 吨);单一空头头寸 155,000–225,000 吨,上限约相当于注册库存的 90%;海湾地区年化减产约 200 万吨;亚洲二季度现货升水 350–353 美元/吨,被称为十一年高位;并点名 8月19日为交割检验日。
  • ⊘ 同源将现货对三个月升水列为 8 美元,与 Westmetall 的 2.00 美元(8月14日)与 0.00 美元(8月17日)不一致;本简报采用 Westmetall 一手口径,该冲突列出但不调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 昨日本简报设定的判别标准是:「在铝自身升水扩大到超出四舍五入范围之前,LME 库存序列更适合作为地板论据而非上涨论据。」该项已解算——升水未扩大,而是归零;同期铜的升水扩大至 518.50 美元。昨日的降级由「论断」转为「已获证据」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 但须并列一项反向可能:若上述仓单集中度报道属实,则在如此之薄的库存序列上出现平坦曲线,其含义更接近「金属归谁所有」而非「金属还有多少」。若该项成立,8月19日的交割检验比本简报中任何一条均线都更重要(此为解读,且基于未经一手证实的数据)。
  • ⚑ 现货一栏的旧矛盾已经消解,且方向对多头有利:昨日本简报主张贴水来自合约选择与移仓而非真实过剩。随着 AL2608 到期、移仓完成,基差直接回到升水 55 元——该主张已被证实(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 周一印记落地:去库自 90 万吨以下的低基数继续

  • ⚑ SMM 社会库存(8月17日,周一印记):886,000 吨,较 8月13日(周四)的 898,000 吨减少 12,000 吨,较 8月10日(周一)的 917,000 吨减少 31,000 吨。
  • 周一序列:917,000 → 886,000 吨。周四序列:953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000 吨。
  • 自 5 月初约 147 万吨的年内高点起,累计去库已超过 58.4 万吨(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ SMM 日度口径(8月17日午评):主流消费地铝锭库存周环比减少 500 吨,其中仅巩义一地累库。
  • LME 库存 246,925 吨,减少 1,375 吨,为连续第 35 个交易日下降;较 8月10日的 254,900 吨累计减少 7,975 吨。
  • 铸造铝合金锭库存(延续):25,500 吨,周增 1,500 吨——结束连续十周去库(累计去库 38,900 吨)。
  • 铝棒库存(8月10日口径,延续):周增 4,000 吨;但社库与厂库均处近年同期偏低水平。

解读

  • ⚑ 昨日设定的判别标准明确:「若周一在 898,000 吨的低基数上继续去库,则去库进入供应驱动阶段;若转为累库,则 8月13日印记应被追认为一次性事件。」结果为继续去库,该项通过检验——8月13日的印记并非高价抑制到货的一次性现象。
  • ⚑ 但降幅收敛:周四单周降 35,000 吨,而周一至周四仅降 12,000 吨。去库仍在进行,速度已放慢(此为推算与解读)。
  • ⚑ 库存一栏内部的两处裂口仍未修复:铸造合金锭结束十周去库转为累库 1,500 吨,铝棒库存周增 4,000 吨。库存的强势集中于铝锭本身,而非铝加工品(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 中国 7 月经济活动数据:三条要害线全部不及预期,且发布时间推迟

  • ⚑ 发布时间为 8月17日 15:00,而非惯例的 10:00。
  • ⚑ 工业增加值:同比 +4.5%;预期 +4.8%,6 月为 +5.3%。
  • ⚑ 社会消费品零售总额:同比 +0.6%;路透调查预期 +1.5%,6 月为 +1.0%。
  • ⚑ 1–7 月固定资产投资:同比 −6.7%;调查预期 −6.0%,上半年为 −5.7%——降幅在走阔,而非见底。
  • ⚑ 城镇调查失业率:5.2%,6 月为 5.0%。
  • ⚑ 新建商品住宅价格:环比 −0.1%(与 6 月持平);同比 −3.2%(6 月为 −3.3%)。
  • ⊘ 另一口径:清华大学李稻葵团队的民间调查显示 7 月广义失业率为 10.2%,显著高于官方约 5% 的口径;仅作并列列出。
  • 7 月金融数据(延续,已确认):M2 同比 +7.7%;人民币贷款余额同比 +5.1%,为历史低位;社融存量同比 +7.4%;住户贷款减少 4,603 亿元;企业贷款减少 1,300 亿元;1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元(上年同期 12.87 万亿元)。

⚑ 美联储:加息概率不降反升

  • ⚑ Investing.com《美联储利率监测》(更新于 8月17日 20:35 美东):9月16日 FOMC 维持利率概率 64.7%,加息概率 35.3%,降息概率 0%;对应 30 天联邦基金期货 96.330。
  • ⚑ 当前目标区间 3.50%–3.75%,于 7月29日会议维持不变。
  • ⊘ 该 35.3% 高于此前所载的约 30.6%(8月14日 CME FedWatch 口径)与约 33%–35% 的 TE 叙述口径。近两个交易日的方向为上行,而非下行。
  • 年内至少加息一次的概率(延续口径)约 63%;联邦基金有效利率 3.63%。

⊘ 美元:两套口径并存,延续已停滞但未反转

  • ⊘ TE 周二(8月18日)口径:美元指数 99.534,−0.005(−0.01%);页面表头为 99.561,−0.0273(−0.03%)。月 −1.38% 至 −1.40%,年 +1.29% 至 +1.32%。
  • ⊘ 另一 TE 口径:周一指数跌至 99.40,为 2026 年 6 月以来最低,并录得连续第三个下跌交易日。
  • ⚑ 合并读数:三日连跌在周一口径下成立,但周二亚洲时段为持平——延续已停滞,尚未反转(此为解读)。
  • 美国数据(延续):7 月零售销售环比 −0.6%,为九个月来首次下降;密歇根大学 8 月信心初值 51.0;7 月生产者价格持平。

⚑ 能源与地缘:特朗普表示无意延长临时协议

  • ⚑ 布伦特(8月18日口径):91.027 美元/桶,+0.16(+0.17%);月 +2.03%、年 +38.36%;三季度预测 90.411 美元。
  • ⚑ TE 8月17日叙述:布伦特周二升破 91 美元,录得连续第三个上涨交易日,原因是特朗普表示无意延长临时和平协议,美伊达成新协议的前景转弱;霍尔木兹通行问题未解,而中东产油国正在寻找替代航线。
  • ⚑ 较昨日所载的 88.54 美元上涨 2.49 美元(+2.81%)。
  • 6月17日《伊斯兰堡备忘录》项下的免费通行窗口已于 8月16日前后到期,到期后的实际安排仍未观测;赫格塞思称海上封锁「无限期」;自 7月13日起美中央司令部已劝返 59 艘商船(延续)。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 利多铝价:布伦特连续三日上涨并升破 91 美元,能源成本与地缘风险溢价同时抬升;美元月度仍为 −1.38% 至 −1.40%。
  • ⚑ 利空铝价:中国 7 月三条要害线全部不及预期,且固投降幅走阔;9 月加息概率由约 30.6% 升至 35.3%;美元的三日连跌在周二停滞。
  • ⚑ 一项须单独标出的不稳定组合:加息概率上行与美元走弱同时发生。二者不能长期并存,其中之一存在错误定价;本简报不判断是哪一项(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 净读数:宏观一栏由昨日的「中性偏利多」回落至「中性偏利空」,主因为中国需求数据而非美国利率路径(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 海外供应:本简报撤回自身一项多头论据——Alunorte 正在恢复满产

  • ⚑ 海德鲁 8月13日公告:Alunorte(630 万吨/年)正在将氧化铝产量恢复至满产。
  • ⚑ 机制:巴西 ANP 已批准该厂成为天然气自进口商;同时与 CELBA 达成临时接收终端准入安排,长期方案仍在推进。
  • ⚑ 累计减产量估计为 10.0 万–12.0 万吨;2026 年三季度铝土矿与氧化铝板块财务影响维持 7,500 万–1 亿美元不变,内含减产与以高于合约价采购天然气两项。
  • ⚑ 市场反应(8月14日):NALCO 股价 −5.5%,印度铝业(Hindalco)约 −2%,韦丹塔约 −1%;MCX 铝价 −1.73% 至 346.80 卢比。
  • ⚑ 本简报自 8月11日起将「Alunorte 维持 50% 运行率、减产未撤销」列于多头栏。该表述现已失效,在此撤回。
  • 其余海外项(延续):EGA Al Taweelah 运行率 18%,预计 2027 年一季度满产;Tomago 获自 2029 年起十年 25 亿澳元支持;Slovalco(四季度)与密苏里冶炼厂(年底)待复产。

下游需求(延续,无新增印记)

  • 乘联会 7 月数据:乘用车零售 146.1 万辆,同比 −20.9%;燃油车零售 51.0 万辆,同比 −41%;新能源零售 95.1 万辆,同比 −3.9%,渗透率 65.1%;新能源出口 54.0 万辆,同比 +147.8%。
  • SMM 7 月铝加工行业 PMI 42.2%,环比 −4.4 个百分点,七个细分板块全部收缩:铝箔 39.0、建筑型材 39.7、再生合金 37.6、板带 44.8、工业型材 42.1、线缆 44.4、原生铝合金 43.9。
  • 铝棒:7 月开工率 58.3%(年内新高与近三年同期高位),8 月预期回落至约 56.9%;加工费已低于行业平均生产成本。
  • ⚑ 汇总(更新):内需一栏现已在信贷、加工、地产、汽车、社零五处同时偏弱,而固定资产投资为其中恶化最快的一项。已无可指向的内需支柱(此为解读)。

国内供应与成本(延续)

  • 7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%(31 天口径);月末建成产能约 4,629 万吨,环比持平。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预计 78.5%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%。
  • 西南地区被动减产延续。
  • 8 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,700–2,820 元/吨,现金成本 2,530–2,650 元/吨;按 8月14日指数 2,689.77 元对完全成本区间中值约 2,760 元计,行业整体仍处于完全成本线之下、现金成本线之上(此为推算)。
  • 几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%;氧化铝厂铝土矿库存约 96 天。

解读

  • ⚑ 基本面一栏本期的净变化为负,且负向变化集中于两处:需求端的中国 7 月数据,以及供应端的 Alunorte 复产。
  • ⚑ 海外扰动一栏已在八个交易日内被逐项拆解:EGA 复产、Tomago 获救、Slovalco 与密苏里待复产,而今 Alunorte 逆转。该栏所余者为一条库存序列,而非一项实际断供(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 供应端唯一无争议的利多仍是 7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%:它同时解释社库去化与现货偏紧,且不依赖任何海外事件(此为解读)。

六 · 原铝现货市场

8月17日成交(SMM 现货午评,14:32)

  • 华东成交:对 SHFE 09 合约贴水 10 元至升水 10 元。
  • 华中成交:对 SHFE 09 合约贴水 90–110 元。
  • 近月合约价差:正向 20–50 元(contango)。
  • 整体描述:成交清淡;囤货意愿低;采购情绪较上周五周环比回落。
  • 8月17日为 AL2608 最后交易日,移仓已基本完成(AL2610 持仓领先 AL2609 达 48,854 手)。

情绪指数(SMM,8月17日)

  • 华东:出货情绪指数 3.15(周环比 +0.01);采购情绪指数 3.40(周环比 +0.06)。
  • 华中:出货情绪指数 3.09(周环比持平);采购情绪指数 2.90(周环比 −0.07)。
  • ⊘ 内部张力:华东采购指数上行 0.06,而同文正文表述为采购情绪回落。两者并列,本期不调和。

区域结构

  • ⚑ 华东与华中价差:华东为 −10 至 +10,华中为 −90 至 −110,两地价差约 80–120 元,华东显著偏强(此为推算)。
  • 主流消费地铝锭库存周环比减少 500 吨,仅巩义一地累库——与华中现货持续贴水的方向一致(此为解读)。

解读:情绪读数

  • 出货意愿:中性(华东 3.15,华中 3.09,均在中性区间且变动极小)。
  • 采购意愿:华东偏强(3.40,周环比 +0.06)、华中偏弱(2.90,周环比 −0.07)——南北分化,而非整体转弱(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 综合读数:现货一栏由昨日的「跟跌但不恐慌」转为「跟涨且华东领先」。基差由贴水 30 元翻转至升水 55 元,是本期最干净的现货证据;而「成交清淡、囤货意愿低」的定性描述与之并存,说明升水来自可流通货源收紧而非下游集中补库(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日 11:00 前后的 SMM A00 报价,将检验 +55 元的升水能否维持(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素

  • ⚑ AL2610 于 8月17日收 24,035 元,收复 MA10(24,015.50),为 8月13日以来首次——连续四期标注的破位已修复。
  • ⚑ 收盘对收盘上涨 150 元(+0.63%),日内低点 23,850 未跌破 8月14日低点 23,810。
  • ⚑ SMM A00 上涨 200 元至 24,070 元(+0.84%),逆转连续两日各跌 250 元。
  • ⚑ 基差由贴水 30 元翻转为对 AL2609 升水 55 元、对 AL2610 升水 35 元。
  • ⚑ 周一社会库存 886,000 吨,较周四减少 12,000 吨、较上周一减少 31,000 吨——去库自 90 万吨以下低基数继续。
  • ⚑ 主流消费地铝锭库存周环比 −500 吨,仅巩义累库。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,925 吨,连续第 35 个交易日下降,较 8月10日累计减少 7,975 吨。
  • ⚑ 布伦特 91.03 美元,连续第三个上涨交易日,+2.49 美元(+2.81%);特朗普表示无意延长临时和平协议。
  • ⚑ 霍尔木兹免费通行窗口已到期,封锁被称「无限期」,能源成本端上行风险未解除。
  • ⚑ 华东采购情绪指数升至 3.40(周环比 +0.06)。
  • ⚑ 板块内部沪铝领涨(+0.63% > 合金 +0.41% > 氧化铝 +0.04%),铝端自身获得资金。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓自夜盘 652,352 手回落至 645,941 手,价格上涨伴随持仓自高位回落,形态偏向空头回补(此为跨口径推算)。
  • ⊘ 若仓单集中度报道属实(单一参与者持 80–90%、俄罗斯品牌约 95%、空头头寸 155,000–225,000 吨),则 8月19日交割存在实物挤压风险。
  • ⊘ 亚洲二季度现货升水 350–353 美元/吨,被称十一年高位。
  • 7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%,直接减少可入库资源。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预期 78.5%,持续挤压铸锭。
  • 铝棒社库与厂库均处近年同期低位。
  • 西南被动减产延续;建成产能 4,629 万吨环比持平,接近产能天花板。
  • 8 月进口铝土矿受雨季影响发运预计收缩,原料成本端偏强。
  • 氧化铝指数 2,689.77 元仍低于完全成本区间中值约 2,760 元,成本端下行空间受限(此为推算)。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 中国 7 月工业增加值 +4.5%,低于预期 4.8%,并自 6 月的 5.3% 减速。
  • ⚑ 7 月社零 +0.6%,低于路透调查 1.5%,并自 6 月的 1.0% 减速——消费线已接近走平。
  • ⚑ 1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%,低于调查 −6.0%,且较上半年的 −5.7% 进一步走阔。
  • ⚑ 城镇调查失业率升至 5.2%(6 月 5.0%);新建商品住宅价格同比 −3.2%。
  • ⚑ 数据发布时间由 10:00 推迟至 15:00,本身即为一项须记录的事实。
  • ⚑ Alunorte 恢复满产:ANP 批准自进口天然气,CELBA 临时终端准入;累计减产仅 10.0 万–12.0 万吨,三季度影响维持 7,500 万–1 亿美元不变。
  • ⚑ NALCO −5.5%、Hindalco 约 −2%、MCX 铝价 −1.73%——权益市场已就该复产定价。
  • ⚑ 海外扰动一栏被逐项拆解:EGA 复产、Tomago 获救、Slovalco 与密苏里待复产、Alunorte 逆转。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货对三个月升水由 +2.00 美元归零至 0.00 美元,昨日设定的判别标准解算结果不利于铝。
  • ⚑ 伦铜升水同期扩大至 518.50 美元(2021年10月以来最强):两者库存同时下降,而定价背离进一步扩大。
  • ⚑ 9 月加息概率由约 30.6% 升至 35.3%,方向为上行。
  • ⚑ 美元三日连跌在周二亚洲时段停滞(99.534,−0.01%)。
  • ⚑ 收复 MA10 的幅度仅 19.50 元,且仍低于 MA5 74.00 元;收复后未经回踩检验(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 去库速度放慢:周四单周 −35,000 吨,而周一至周四仅 −12,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 华中现货维持贴水 90–110 元,与华东的 −10/+10 形成 80–120 元的区域分化。
  • ⚑ 现货成交被描述为「清淡」,囤货意愿低,升水更可能来自货源收紧而非补库(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金锭库存 25,500 吨转为周增 1,500 吨,结束十周去库;铝棒库存周增 4,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 收盘对收盘仅 +1 元,在沪铝上涨 150 元的同一日几乎持平——成本端未跟随(此为解读)。
  • 7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%;铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个细分板块全部收缩。
  • 铝棒开工率 7 月见顶 58.3%,8 月预期 56.9%;加工费已低于行业平均生产成本。
  • 中国 7 月人民币贷款余额同比 +5.1%,为历史低位;1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元,远低于上年同期的 12.87 万亿元。
  • ⊘ TE 将伦铝三季度与十二个月预测列为 3,276.08 与 3,475.69 美元;SMM 预期区间维持 23,600–24,450 与 3,180–3,330 美元,均未上调。

八 · 一句话观点

铝在昨日回答对了自己设下的全部三道题——收复 MA10(24,035 对 24,015.50)、基差由贴水 30 元翻转为升水 55 元、周一社库自 90 万吨以下继续去化至 886,000 吨——但随后发现真正要害的题目不在其中:中国 7 月三条线全部不及预期且固投降幅走阔至 −6.7%,Alunorte 恢复满产使本简报须撤回自身一项多头论据,而伦铝升水归零、伦铜升水同期扩大至 518.50 美元;因此在收复位 24,015.50 完成首次回踩检验之前,铝价更可能维持高位震荡而非延续上行,且回踩失败的技术含义将劣于从未修复的破位。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 24,015.50(MA10)的首次回踩。这是本期最重要的一项:收复幅度仅 19.50 元,尚未经检验。守住则确认修复;失守则形成「假突破」,技术含义劣于原破位(此为解读)。上方顺序:24,109.00(MA5)→ 24,135(8月17日高点)→ 24,285(20 日区间顶)→ 24,470(周期高点)。下方顺序:23,990(结算)→ 23,945 → 23,885 → 23,850/23,835 → 23,810 → 23,692.00(MA20)→ 23,645.42(MA60)。
  • ⚑ 8月17日夜盘印记(本期未观测)。重点为夜盘能否收于 24,015.50 之上,以及品种合计持仓在价格上行时的方向——增仓为空头被动加仓,减仓为空头回补(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 8月19日的 LME 交割检验。若单一参与者持有 80–90% 注册仓单、而空头头寸达 155,000–225,000 吨的报道属实,则该日为本周最具事件风险的时点。同时关注现货对三个月价差能否自 0.00 美元重回升水——这是「市场是否开始为铝的紧张付费」的唯一直接指标(⊘ 该项基于二手来源,须以 LME 自身日度头寸报告核实)。
  • ⚑ 今日 11:00 前后的 SMM A00 报价:+55 元的升水能否维持,以及华中 −90/−110 的贴水是否收敛。基差是本期最干净的现货证据,其可持续性直接决定现货一栏的方向。
  • ⚑ 美元指数能否恢复下行。周一 99.40 为 6 月以来最低,周二亚洲时段持平于 99.53;若今日回补,则「美元破位」一项应重新降回中性(此为解读)。同时关注加息概率能否自 35.3% 回落——概率上行与美元走弱不能长期并存(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 油价与地缘:布伦特能否守住 91 美元并录得第四个上涨交易日;特朗普「无意延长临时协议」的表态是否转化为具体措施;霍尔木兹到期后的实际通行安排。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝能否跟随:AO2610 在沪铝上涨 150 元的同一日仅收涨 1 元。若成本端持续不跟随,则铝的上行缺少成本支撑;若 SMM 氧化铝指数今日转涨,则该项转为利多(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 海外供应的后续:Alunorte 恢复满产的时间表与实际达产进度,以及氧化铝现货价格对此的反应(几内亚发运、澳洲 FOB 349 美元)。
  • ⚑ 库存节奏:周四印记能否延续去库,以及去库速度是否继续放慢(周四 −35,000 吨 → 周一 −12,000 吨)。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and what is unobserved

  • This brief was written at 09:25 Beijing on Tuesday August 18. The SHFE day session is twenty-five minutes old and its print is NOT in this brief.
  • ⚑ The AUGUST 17 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 17 to 01:00 August 18) is ALSO unobserved: as of 09:25 SMM had not published its Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary (the August 17 edition published at 09:11).
  • ⚑ No new SMM A00 quotation for August 18 exists (SMM quotes around 11:00 Beijing).

⚑ SHFE: the August 17 day session RECLAIMED MA10 (taken from the exchange’s own daily file)

  • ⚑ AL2610, now the main contract with open interest of 245,033 (+16,853) leading AL2609 by 48,854 lots: open 23,975, high 24,135, low 23,850, close 24,035, settlement 23,990; +90 on the previous settlement (+0.38%), +45 settlement-over-settlement (+0.19%), and +150 (+0.63%) close-over-close against August 14’s 23,885; volume 134,217.
  • AL2609: open 23,960, high 24,115, low 23,835, close 24,015, settlement 23,980; +70 on the previous settlement and +130 (+0.54%) close-over-close; volume 135,153, open interest 196,179 (−18,431) — the roll accelerating.
  • AL2608 traded its LAST TRADING DAY: open 23,905, high 24,065, low 23,820, close 23,930, settlement 23,980; open interest 14,875 (−175), volume 1,160.
  • Whole product: volume 323,919, open interest 645,941 (+6,244).

⚑ Moving averages: the break carried for four editions is repaired

  • The averages are this brief’s own caliber, recomputed from SHFE’s own daily files, main-contract closes, 101 trading sessions to August 17: MA5 24,109.00, MA10 24,015.50, MA20 23,692.00, MA30 23,497.33, MA40 23,347.62, MA60 23,645.42.
  • ⚑ Against those, the close of 24,035 sits 19.50 ABOVE MA10 — the first close above the average since August 13 — and 74.00 below MA5, while holding +343.00 over MA20, +537.67 over MA30, +687.38 over MA40 and +389.58 over MA60.
  • Twenty-session close range 23,160–24,285; sixty-session range 22,370–24,825. SMM’s band is unchanged at 23,600–24,450.

Alumina and cast aluminium alloy (same daily file)

  • AO2610, main with open interest 271,115 (+1,597): open 2,695, high 2,710, low 2,683, close 2,697, settlement 2,696; +9 on the previous settlement and +1 close-over-close; volume 159,353. AO2609 close 2,700, settlement 2,698, open interest 95,874 (−7,836). Whole-product alumina volume 220,312, open interest 539,534 (−5,515).
  • AD2610, main with open interest 18,402 (+122): open 23,170, high 23,385, low 23,135, close 23,230, settlement 23,250; +40 on the previous settlement and +95 (+0.41%) close-over-close; volume 6,222.
  • Alumina averages, own caliber: MA5 2,702.20, MA10 2,690.90, MA20 2,686.70, MA30 2,690.67, MA40 2,715.70, MA60 2,763.43.
  • Cast alloy averages, own caliber: MA5 23,396.00, MA10 23,435.00, MA20 23,267.75, MA30 23,166.33, MA40 23,052.38, MA60 23,101.58.

⚑ LME: a new row, and the backwardation has gone to zero

  • ⚑ Westmetall official caliber: August 17 cash settlement $3,272.00 (+$24.00), three-month $3,272.00 (+$26.00). The cash-to-3M spread is $0.00, narrowed from +$2.00 on August 14.
  • Stocks 246,925 mt, −1,375, a 35th consecutive daily decline; −7,975 from August 10’s 254,900.
  • Cash is −$101.00 (−3.00%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00.
  • This brief’s own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,295.90, MA10 $3,284.75, MA20 $3,242.53, MA40 $3,191.76, MA60 $3,329.78. Cash at $3,272.00 sits below MA5, MA10 and MA60 and above MA20 and MA40.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics carries $3,259.45 (+$11.75, +0.36%), month +3.89%, year +26.05%, Q3 forecast $3,276.08 and twelve-month $3,475.69; a separate caliber prints $3,256.93 (+0.28%). Neither reconciles with Westmetall’s $3,272.00 and none is reconciled here.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Price position: 24,035 sits inside the 675 range framed by the August 12 cycle high of 24,470 and the August 14 low of 23,795, some 240 off the low — roughly the 36th percentile, which is mid-to-low in the pullback rather than a high zone (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The August 13–14 decline was 400 (24,285 → 23,885). Monday recovered 150 of it, a retracement of about 37.5% (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The mechanical reading changes from ‘held the floor, failed the average’ to ‘held the floor and reclaimed the average’ — but by only 19.50. Whether 24,015.50 holds on the first retest is more discriminating than whether a new high is made: a reclaim that fails on the retest is a worse technical outcome than a break that was never repaired (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The intra-complex ranking inverted on Monday. Close-over-close: SHFE aluminium +0.63% > cast aluminium alloy +0.41% > alumina +0.04%. Friday night’s ordering (alloy > aluminium > alumina) has been overturned and the metal itself led (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ A cross-caliber derivation on open interest: whole-product open interest closed at 645,941, officially +6,244 on the previous day — but against the 652,352 reported for the Friday night session, the day session shed 6,411. A price rally alongside open interest falling from the overnight level looks more like short covering than fresh length (this is a cross-caliber derivation; the two figures are not perfectly comparable).

⚑ Spot: A00 up 200 in a session, and the basis flips from discount to premium

  • ⚑ SMM A00 (August 17): 24,070 yuan/mt, range 24,060–24,080, +200 (+0.84%).
  • ⚑ That reverses two consecutive 250 declines: 24,120 on August 13 → 23,870 on August 14 → 24,070 on August 17.
  • ⚑ Basis: a premium of 55 against AL2609’s close of 24,015 and 35 against AL2610’s 24,035. On August 14 it was −30/−15, so the basis swung +85 and +50 respectively.
  • SMM’s August 17 spot midday commentary (14:32): East China transactions ranged from a 10 discount to a 10 premium against the SHFE 09 contract; Central China at a discount of 90–110 against 09; the near-month spread in contango of 20 to 50 yuan/mt.
  • ⊘ Internal tension, flagged and not reconciled: the same article gives an East China procurement sentiment index of 3.40, up 0.06 week on week, while its narrative says procurement sentiment fell week on week.

Alumina: no new index print at writing

  • SMM alumina index, August 14 caliber, carried: 2,689.77 yuan/mt (−0.58), with Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Guizhou each −5. No new print was observed at writing.
  • Australian FOB $349/mt (+$1); a cargo traded at $374 CFR Malaysia (carried).
  • ⚑ On the futures side, AO2610 closed 2,697 on August 17, +9 on the previous settlement but only +1 close-over-close — essentially flat on the same day SHFE aluminium rose 150.
  • August national weighted-average full cost 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt and cash cost 2,530–2,650 yuan/mt (SMM, carried).

Secondary aluminium and alloy (carried)

  • ADC12: 24,200 yuan/mt, down from 24,400; the import loss exceeds 1,000 yuan/mt.
  • Theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium: 865 yuan/mt on the August 14 caliber.
  • Total registered cast aluminium alloy warrants: 18,311 mt on August 14, +333 on the previous trading day.
  • A00-to-Foshan-mixed-aluminium-extrusion-scrap spread: approximately 2,250 yuan/mt.
  • SMM’s outlook: ADC12 range-bound — elevated raw-material cost supports the floor while off-season end-use demand caps the ceiling.

⚑ Cross-metal: yesterday’s curve comparison has resolved, and it resolved against aluminium

  • ⚑ Aluminium: August 17 cash $3,272.00 and three-month $3,272.00 — the backwardation is zero. Stocks fell for a 35th consecutive day to 246,925 mt.
  • ⚑ Copper: open $13,992.00, low $13,975.50, high $14,150.00, close $14,148.50, +0.75%; volume 20,200 lots, open interest 253,000 (+1,896).
  • ⚑ Copper’s cash-to-3M backwardation widened to $518.50, described as the strongest since October 2021; stocks fell for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 mt, the lowest since February, with nearly half the remainder earmarked for withdrawal.

⊘ LME warrant concentration (SECONDARY SOURCES ONLY, not primary — treat with care)

  • ⊘ Reports of August 14 and August 15 have one participant holding 80–90% of all warranted aluminium stocks, and above 90% once cash-date positions are included, which classifies as a dominant position under LME rules.
  • ⊘ The mechanism: above 90% the holder must make metal available to the cash market free of charge; below that threshold it may charge up to 0.25% of the cash price per day.
  • ⊘ Same source set: Russian brands approximately 95% of available LME aluminium; off-warrant stocks 85,645 mt; Indian registered stocks 12,450 mt against 236,000 mt twelve months ago; one short position of 155,000–225,000 mt with the upper end near 90% of registered stocks; annualised Gulf output loss approximately 2 million mt; an Asian Q2 physical premium of $350–353/mt called an eleven-year high; and a delivery test named for August 19.
  • ⊘ The same reporting puts the cash-to-3M backwardation at $8, against Westmetall’s $2.00 (August 14) and $0.00 (August 17). This brief uses the primary Westmetall figures; the conflict is listed and not reconciled.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Yesterday this brief set the test in these words: ‘until aluminium’s own backwardation widens beyond a rounding error, the LME stock series is better treated as a floor argument than as a rally argument.’ The test has resolved. The backwardation did not widen — it went to zero, while copper’s widened to $518.50. Yesterday’s demotion moves from argument to evidence (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ One counter-possibility must sit alongside it: if the warrant-concentration reporting is accurate, then a flat curve on a stock series this thin is a statement about who owns the metal rather than about how much of it there is. If that holds, the August 19 delivery test matters more than any moving average in this brief (this is interpretation, and it rests on data not confirmed at primary source).
  • ⚑ The old contradiction in the spot column has resolved, and in the bulls’ favour. Yesterday this brief argued the discount came from contract selection and the roll rather than genuine physical surplus. With AL2608 expired and the roll complete, the basis went straight back to a 55 premium — the argument is confirmed (this is interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ The Monday print landed: destocking continued FROM the sub-900kt base

  • ⚑ SMM social inventory, Monday August 17 print: 886,000 mt — −12,000 against Thursday August 13’s 898,000 and −31,000 against Monday August 10’s 917,000.
  • Monday series: 917,000 → 886,000. Thursday series: 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000.
  • From the year’s high near 1.47 million mt in early May, cumulative destocking now exceeds 584,000 mt (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ SMM’s own daily caliber (August 17 midday): ingot inventory in major consumption areas −500 mt week on week, with only Gongyi building.
  • LME stocks 246,925 mt, −1,375, a 35th consecutive daily decline; −7,975 from August 10’s 254,900.
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory, carried: 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w — ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt.
  • Billet inventory, August 10 caliber, carried: +4,000 w/w, though both social and in-factory stocks remain low versus recent years.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Yesterday’s test was stated plainly: ‘if destocking continues from a base of 898,000 mt, the draw has moved into a supply-driven phase; if it turns to a build, the August 13 print gets re-read as a one-off caused by high prices deferring arrivals.’ The result is continued destocking, so the test passed — the August 13 print was not a one-off.
  • ⚑ But the pace has slowed. The Thursday draw was 35,000 in a week; Monday’s is 12,000 across four sessions. Destocking is intact and decelerating (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • ⚑ The two cracks inside the inventory column remain unrepaired: cast alloy ingots turned to a 1,500 mt build after ten weeks of draws, and billet turned to a 4,000 mt build. The strength is concentrated in the ingot itself, not in fabricated products (this is interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ China’s July activity data: all three critical lines missed, and the release was delayed

  • ⚑ Released at 15:00 on August 17 rather than the customary 10:00.
  • ⚑ Industrial output: +4.5% y/y; consensus +4.8%, June +5.3%.
  • ⚑ Retail sales: +0.6% y/y; Reuters poll +1.5%, June +1.0%.
  • ⚑ January–July fixed-asset investment: −6.7% y/y; poll −6.0%, first half −5.7% — the contraction is steepening, not bottoming.
  • ⚑ Surveyed urban unemployment: 5.2%, from 5.0% in June.
  • ⚑ New-home prices: −0.1% m/m (matching June); −3.2% y/y (June −3.3%).
  • ⊘ A separate caliber: a private survey by Li Daokui’s team at Tsinghua puts the broad July unemployment rate at 10.2% against the official figure near 5%; listed alongside only.
  • July financial data, carried and confirmed: M2 +7.7% y/y; outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; TSF stock +7.4%; household loans −460.3 billion yuan; corporate loans −130 billion; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion against 12.87 trillion a year earlier.

⚑ The Fed: hike odds rose rather than fell

  • ⚑ Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 17 at 20:35 EDT: for the September 16 FOMC, hold 64.7%, hike 35.3%, cut 0%; implied off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.330.
  • ⚑ The target range is 3.50–3.75%, left unchanged at the July 29 meeting.
  • ⊘ That 35.3% is ABOVE the approximately 30.6% carried on the August 14 CME FedWatch caliber and above the roughly 33–35% TE narrative caliber. The direction of travel over the last two sessions is higher, not lower.
  • The probability of at least one hike by year-end remains approximately 63% on the carried caliber; effective fed funds 3.63%.

⊘ The dollar: two calibers — the extension has stalled but not reversed

  • ⊘ TE Tuesday (August 18) caliber: the dollar index at 99.534, −0.005 (−0.01%); the page header shows 99.561, −0.0273 (−0.03%). Month −1.38% to −1.40%, year +1.29% to +1.32%.
  • ⊘ A separate TE caliber has the index at 99.40 on Monday, the lowest since June 2026, in a third consecutive declining session.
  • ⚑ Combined reading: the three-session decline holds on the Monday caliber, but the Tuesday Asia print is flat — the extension has stalled without reversing (this is interpretation).
  • US data, carried: July retail sales −0.6% m/m, the first decline in nine months; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0; July producer prices unchanged.

⚑ Energy and geopolitics: Trump will not extend the interim deal

  • ⚑ Brent, August 18 caliber: $91.027/bbl, +$0.16 (+0.17%); month +2.03%, year +38.36%; Q3 forecast $90.411.
  • ⚑ TE’s August 17 narrative: Brent climbed above $91 on Tuesday, a third consecutive rising session, after President Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal, weakening prospects for a new US–Iran agreement; Hormuz access remains unresolved while Middle Eastern producers find alternative routes.
  • ⚑ That is +$2.49 (+2.81%) against the $88.54 carried yesterday.
  • The fee-free Hormuz transit window under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum lapsed around August 16 and post-expiry arrangements remain unobserved; Hegseth has called the naval blockade indefinite; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels since July 13 (carried).

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ Bullish for aluminium: Brent up for a third session and through $91, lifting both the energy cost channel and the risk premium; the dollar is still −1.38% to −1.40% on the month.
  • ⚑ Bearish for aluminium: China’s July data missed on all three critical lines with fixed-asset investment steepening; September hike odds rose from about 30.6% to 35.3%; the dollar’s three-session decline stalled on Tuesday.
  • ⚑ One unstable pair worth isolating: rising hike probability alongside a falling dollar. Those two cannot coexist indefinitely and one of them is mispriced; this brief does not judge which (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Net reading: the macro column slips from yesterday’s neutral-with-a-bullish-tilt to neutral-with-a-bearish-tilt, driven by the China demand data rather than by the US rate path (this is interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Overseas supply: this brief withdraws one of its own bull items — Alunorte is ramping back to full

  • ⚑ Hydro’s release of August 13: Alunorte, 6.3 million mt/yr, is ramping alumina production back to full capacity.
  • ⚑ The mechanism: Brazil’s ANP approved the refinery as a self-importer of natural gas, and it secured temporary terminal access from CELBA while a long-term solution is pursued.
  • ⚑ Total lost production is estimated at 100,000–120,000 mt; the Q3 2026 Bauxite & Alumina impact is unchanged at USD 75–100 million, reflecting reduced production plus gas purchased above the contract price.
  • ⚑ Market reaction, August 14: NALCO −5.5%, Hindalco approximately −2%, Vedanta approximately −1%; MCX aluminium −1.73% to INR 346.80.
  • ⚑ This brief has carried ‘Alunorte still at 50%, the cut not reversed’ in the bull column since August 11. That statement is now wrong and is withdrawn here.
  • Other overseas items, carried: EGA Al Taweelah at 18% of capacity with full capacity expected Q1 2027; Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support over ten years from 2029; Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end) pending restart.

Downstream demand (carried, no new print)

  • CPCA July: passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y; internal-combustion retail 510,000 units, −41%; NEV retail 951,000 units, −3.9% with penetration 65.1%; NEV exports 540,000 units, +147.8%.
  • SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting: foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, sheet and strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary aluminium alloy 43.9.
  • Billet: July operating rate 58.3%, a year-to-date and three-year high, with an August forecast of approximately 56.9%; processing fees already below the industry average production cost.
  • ⚑ Summary, updated: the domestic demand column is now simultaneously weak in credit, in processing, in property, in autos and in retail sales — with fixed-asset investment the fastest-deteriorating of the set. There is no domestic pillar left to point at (this is interpretation).

Domestic supply and cost (carried)

  • July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m on a 31-day caliber; month-end existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt, flat m/m.
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m.
  • Passive cuts in southwest China continue.
  • August national weighted-average full cost 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt and cash cost 2,530–2,650 yuan/mt; against a full-cost midpoint near 2,760, the August 14 index at 2,689.77 leaves the industry below full cost and above cash cost (this is a derivation).
  • Guinea first-half bauxite exports a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y; refinery bauxite stocks near 96 days.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net change in the fundamentals column this edition is negative, and it lands in two places: China’s July demand data, and Alunorte’s restart on the supply side.
  • ⚑ The overseas-disruption leg has been dismantled piece by piece over eight sessions — EGA restarting, Tomago rescued, Slovalco and Missouri pending, and now Alunorte reversing. What remains of that leg is a stock series rather than an actual outage (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The one uncontested supply-side bullish item is still July casting-ingot output at −15.1% y/y: it explains both the social destocking and the spot tightness, and it depends on no overseas event (this is interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

August 17 transactions (SMM spot midday commentary, 14:32)

  • East China transactions: from a 10 discount to a 10 premium against the SHFE 09 contract.
  • Central China transactions: a discount of 90–110 against the SHFE 09 contract.
  • Near-month spread: contango of 20 to 50 yuan/mt.
  • Overall description: trading sluggish; stockpiling sentiment low; overall procurement sentiment down week on week from last Friday.
  • August 17 was AL2608’s last trading day and the roll is essentially complete (AL2610 open interest leads AL2609 by 48,854 lots).

Sentiment indices (SMM, August 17)

  • East China: shipment sentiment index 3.15 (+0.01 w/w); procurement sentiment index 3.40 (+0.06 w/w).
  • Central China: shipment sentiment index 3.09 (unchanged w/w); procurement sentiment index 2.90 (−0.07 w/w).
  • ⊘ Internal tension: the East China procurement index rose 0.06 while the same article’s narrative says procurement sentiment fell. Both are listed and not reconciled here.

Regional structure

  • ⚑ The East–Central spread: East China at −10 to +10 against Central China’s −90 to −110 implies a regional gap of roughly 80–120 yuan/mt, with East China materially the stronger (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 500 mt week on week with only Gongyi building — consistent in direction with Central China’s persistent discount (this is interpretation).

Interpretation: sentiment reading

  • Shipment willingness: neutral (East China 3.15, Central China 3.09 — both mid-range with very small changes).
  • Purchasing willingness: firmer in East China (3.40, +0.06 w/w) and softer in Central China (2.90, −0.07 w/w) — a north–south divergence rather than a broad weakening (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Composite reading: the spot column moves from yesterday’s ‘following down without panic’ to ‘following up with East China leading’. The basis flipping from a 30 discount to a 55 premium is the cleanest physical evidence in this edition; that it coexists with ‘sluggish trading and low stockpiling sentiment’ suggests the premium comes from tightening circulating supply rather than from concentrated downstream restocking (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ SMM’s A00 quotation around 11:00 today will test whether the +55 premium holds (this is interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ AL2610 closed 24,035 on August 17 and reclaimed MA10 (24,015.50) for the first time since August 13 — the break carried for four editions is repaired.
  • ⚑ Close-over-close +150 (+0.63%), with an intraday low of 23,850 that never broke August 14’s 23,810.
  • ⚑ SMM A00 rose 200 to 24,070 (+0.84%), reversing two consecutive 250 declines.
  • ⚑ The basis flipped from a 30 discount to a 55 premium against AL2609 and a 35 premium against AL2610.
  • ⚑ Monday social inventory 886,000 mt, −12,000 against Thursday and −31,000 against the prior Monday — destocking continued from the sub-900kt base.
  • ⚑ Ingot inventory in major consumption areas −500 mt w/w, with only Gongyi building.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,925 mt, a 35th consecutive daily decline, −7,975 from August 10.
  • ⚑ Brent at $91.03 for a third consecutive rising session, +$2.49 (+2.81%), after Trump said he would not extend the interim peace deal.
  • ⚑ The Hormuz fee-free window has expired and the blockade is called indefinite; energy cost-side upside risk is not removed.
  • ⚑ East China procurement sentiment index rose to 3.40 (+0.06 w/w).
  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium led its own complex (+0.63% > alloy +0.41% > alumina +0.04%), so the metal itself attracted the flow.
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest fell from the night’s 652,352 to 645,941 while price rose — a shape closer to short covering than fresh selling (this is a cross-caliber derivation).
  • ⊘ If the warrant-concentration reporting is accurate (one participant at 80–90%, Russian brands ~95%, a short of 155,000–225,000 mt), the August 19 delivery carries physical-squeeze risk.
  • ⊘ Asian Q2 physical premium at $350–353/mt, described as an eleven-year high.
  • July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, directly reducing warehouse-eligible units.
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%, continuing to squeeze ingot casting.
  • Billet social and in-factory inventories both low versus recent years.
  • Passive cuts in southwest China continue; existing capacity at 46.29 million mt is flat m/m, close to the ceiling.
  • August imported-bauxite shipments are expected to shrink in the rainy season, keeping raw-material cost firm.
  • The alumina index at 2,689.77 remains below the full-cost midpoint near 2,760, limiting downside in the cost channel (this is a derivation).

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ China’s July industrial output +4.5% missed a 4.8% consensus and decelerated from 5.3%.
  • ⚑ July retail sales +0.6% missed a 1.5% Reuters poll and decelerated from 1.0% — the consumption line has effectively flatlined.
  • ⚑ January–July fixed-asset investment at −6.7% missed a −6.0% poll and steepened from −5.7% in the first half.
  • ⚑ Surveyed urban unemployment rose to 5.2% from 5.0%; new-home prices are still −3.2% y/y.
  • ⚑ The release was moved from 10:00 to 15:00, which is itself a fact worth recording.
  • ⚑ Alunorte is ramping back to full capacity: ANP approval for gas self-import, temporary CELBA terminal access, total lost output only 100,000–120,000 mt and the Q3 impact unchanged at USD 75–100 million.
  • ⚑ NALCO −5.5%, Hindalco approximately −2%, MCX aluminium −1.73% — the equity market has already priced the restart.
  • ⚑ The overseas-disruption leg has been dismantled item by item: EGA restarting, Tomago rescued, Slovalco and Missouri pending, Alunorte reversing.
  • ⚑ The LME cash-to-3M backwardation went from +$2.00 to $0.00, and yesterday’s explicit test resolved against aluminium.
  • ⚑ Copper’s backwardation widened to $518.50 over the same period, the strongest since October 2021: both metals drew stocks while the pricing divergence widened further.
  • ⚑ September hike odds rose from about 30.6% to 35.3% — the direction is up.
  • ⚑ The dollar’s three-session decline stalled in Tuesday’s Asia session (99.534, −0.01%).
  • ⚑ The MA10 reclaim is only 19.50 wide, the close is still 74.00 below MA5, and the reclaim has not been retested (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Destocking is decelerating: −35,000 over the Thursday week against −12,000 from Thursday to Monday.
  • ⚑ Central China spot holds a 90–110 discount against East China’s −10/+10, a regional gap of 80–120.
  • ⚑ Spot trading is described as sluggish with low stockpiling sentiment, so the premium more likely reflects tight circulating supply than restocking (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory turned to a 1,500 mt weekly build at 25,500 mt, ending ten weeks of destocking; billet inventory turned to a 4,000 mt build.
  • ⚑ AO2610 closed just +1 close-over-close on a day SHFE aluminium rose 150 — the cost end did not follow (this is interpretation).
  • July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y; aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting.
  • The billet operating rate peaked at 58.3% in July with an August forecast of 56.9%; processing fees are already below the industry average production cost.
  • China’s July outstanding yuan loans +5.1% y/y, a record low; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion against 12.87 trillion a year earlier.
  • ⊘ TE’s LME forecasts stand at $3,276.08 (Q3) and $3,475.69 (twelve-month); SMM’s bands are unchanged at 23,600–24,450 and $3,180–3,330 — neither has been raised.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Aluminium answered all three of the questions it set for itself — reclaiming MA10 at 24,035 against 24,015.50, flipping the basis from a 30 discount to a 55 premium, and extending the destock from below 900kt to 886,000 mt — and then found that the questions that mattered were elsewhere: China’s July data missed on all three critical lines with fixed-asset investment steepening to −6.7%, Alunorte’s return to full capacity forces this brief to withdraw one of its own bull items, and aluminium’s backwardation went to zero while copper’s widened to $518.50; so until 24,015.50 survives its first retest, prices are more likely to consolidate at these levels than to extend, and a failed retest would be a worse technical outcome than the break that was never repaired.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ The first retest of 24,015.50 (MA10). This is the single most important item in this edition: the reclaim is only 19.50 wide and has not been tested. Holding confirms the repair; failing creates a false break whose technical meaning is worse than the original break (this is interpretation). Upside sequence: 24,109.00 (MA5) → 24,135 (August 17 high) → 24,285 (the 20-session top) → 24,470 (cycle high). Downside sequence: 23,990 (settlement) → 23,945 → 23,885 → 23,850/23,835 → 23,810 → 23,692.00 (MA20) → 23,645.42 (MA60).
  • ⚑ The August 17 night session print, unobserved in this edition. What matters is whether it closed above 24,015.50, and the direction of whole-product open interest on any advance — a build is shorts being pressed, a decline is short covering (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The LME delivery test on August 19. If the reporting of one participant at 80–90% of warrants against a short of 155,000–225,000 mt is accurate, that is the largest event risk of the week. Watch also whether the cash-to-3M spread recovers from $0.00 back into backwardation — the single most direct gauge of whether the market has begun to pay for aluminium’s tightness (⊘ this rests on secondary sources and should be checked against the LME’s own daily position reports).
  • ⚑ SMM’s A00 quotation around 11:00 today: whether the +55 premium holds and whether Central China’s −90/−110 discount narrows. The basis is the cleanest physical evidence in this edition, and its persistence decides the direction of the spot column.
  • ⚑ Whether the dollar index resumes its decline. Monday’s 99.40 was the lowest since June; Tuesday’s Asia print is flat at 99.53. If today retraces, the ‘dollar break’ item should be demoted back to neutral (this is interpretation). Watch also whether hike odds retreat from 35.3% — rising hike odds and a falling dollar cannot coexist indefinitely (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Energy and geopolitics: whether Brent holds $91 and posts a fourth consecutive higher session; whether Trump’s refusal to extend the interim deal converts into concrete measures; and what the practical Hormuz arrangements are after the window’s expiry.
  • ⚑ Whether alumina follows: AO2610 closed just +1 on a day SHFE aluminium rose 150. If the cost end keeps failing to follow, the advance lacks cost support; if today’s SMM alumina index turns higher, the item flips to bullish (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Overseas supply follow-through: Alunorte’s ramp-up timetable and actual achieved rate, and how alumina spot prices respond (Guinea shipments, Australian FOB $349).
  • ⚑ The inventory cadence: whether the Thursday print continues to draw, and whether the pace keeps slowing (−35,000 on the Thursday week → −12,000 into Monday).

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Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, or data not retrievable at the time of writing.