Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

The 10-day average reclaim fails on its first retest as SHFE falls to 23,955. LME slips into contango and alumina loses every average.收复 10 日均线后首次回踩即失守,沪铝跌至 23,955;LME 转入 contango,氧化铝跌破全部均线。

Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Wednesday August 19 (Asia). The AUGUST 18 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 18 to 01:00 August 19) IS UNOBSERVED: SMM had not published its Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary at writing, and no new SMM A00 quotation for August 19 exists (SMM quotes around 11:00 Beijing). NEW PRINTS CONFIRMED THIS EDITION. FIRST, SHFE, taken from the exchange's own August 18 daily file: AL2610, main with open interest 255,742 (+10,709) — open 24,040, high 24,040, low 23,825, close 23,955, settlement 23,930, previous settlement 23,990; −35 on the previous settlement (−0.15%), −60 settlement-over-settlement (−0.25%), and −80 (−0.33%) close-over-close against August 17's 24,035; volume 123,793. THE OPEN AND THE HIGH ARE THE SAME PRINT: 24,040. AL2609: open 24,015, high 24,015, low 23,815, close 23,935, settlement 23,915; −45 on the previous settlement, −80 (−0.33%) close-over-close; volume 104,270, open interest 175,204 (−20,975). AL2611 close 23,950, open interest 75,960 (+2,178); AL2612 close 23,925, open interest 56,381 (+1,888). Whole-product aluminium volume 274,920 (from 323,919, −15.1%), open interest 626,762 (−4,304). ⚑ That −4,304 reconciles exactly once AL2608's expired 14,875 lots are removed from August 17's 645,941: 645,941 − 14,875 = 631,066, and 631,066 − 4,304 = 626,762 (derivation, and the exchange's own change figure is confirmed internally consistent). ALUMINA, same file: AO2610 main with open interest 292,323 (+21,208) — open 2,697, high 2,700, low 2,657, close 2,681, settlement 2,678, previous settlement 2,696; −15 on the previous settlement, −16 (−0.59%) close-over-close; volume 226,980. AO2609 close 2,683, settlement 2,682, open interest 91,013 (−4,861). Whole-product alumina volume 307,533, open interest 560,122 (+23,198). ⚑ Alumina's whole-product volume EXCEEDED aluminium's 274,920 and its open interest BUILT while aluminium's fell. CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY, same file: AD2610 main with open interest 18,861 (+459) — open 23,230, high 23,245, low 22,960, close 23,085, settlement 23,070, previous settlement 23,250; −165 on the previous settlement, −145 (−0.62%) close-over-close; volume 9,829. AD2609 close 23,065, settlement 23,015, open interest 4,647 (−303). Whole-product volume 13,293, open interest 24,913 (+172). MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, recomputed from SHFE's own daily files using the highest-open-interest contract's close, 102 trading sessions to August 18. ⚑ THE CALIBER IS VERIFIED THIS EDITION: recomputing the August 17 window from the raw exchange files reproduces the previously published MA5 of 24,109.00 and MA10 of 24,015.50 EXACTLY, and reproduces the alumina MA5 of 2,702.20 and the cast-alloy MA5 of 23,396.00 and MA10 of 23,435.00 exactly. The underlying closes are: aluminium August 4 23,810, August 5 23,785, August 6 23,810, August 7 24,040, August 10 24,165, August 11 24,250, August 12 24,285, August 13 24,090, August 14 23,885, August 17 24,035, August 18 23,955. SHFE aluminium MA5 24,050.00, MA10 24,030.00, MA20 23,731.75, MA30 23,526.67, MA40 23,360.13, MA60 23,636.58 — the close of 23,955 is 95.00 BELOW MA5 and 75.00 BELOW MA10, and holds +223.25 over MA20, +428.33 over MA30, +594.87 over MA40 and +318.42 over MA60. ⚑ MA10 ROSE from 24,015.50 to 24,030.00 while the price fell. Sixty-session close range carried at 22,370–24,825; ⊘ the twenty-session window has rolled to July 22–August 18 and its low is NOT recomputed this edition — the July 21 close of 23,160 that anchored the prior edition's low has dropped out; the window top remains 24,285 (August 12). Alumina MA5 2,693.00, MA10 2,694.50, MA20 2,684.40, MA30 2,689.50, MA40 2,710.88, MA60 2,760.55 — the close of 2,681 is BELOW ALL SIX. ⊘ The reconstructed August 5–August 10 alumina closes reproduce the published August 17 MA10 to within 0.4 yuan (a four-yuan difference in the summed window), so one main-contract selection in that span differs from the prior edition's caliber; the discrepancy is listed and not reconciled. Cast alloy MA5 23,298.00, MA10 23,400.00, MA20 23,274.00, MA30 23,167.33, MA40 23,053.00, MA60 23,102.42 — the close of 23,085 holds ONLY MA40 (+32.00) and is 17.42 below MA60. SECOND, LME (Westmetall official, new row): August 18 cash settlement $3,219.00 (−$53.00, −1.62%), three-month $3,234.00 (−$38.00, −1.16%). ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread is −$15.00 — a CONTANGO — from $0.00 on August 17 and +$2.00 on August 14. ⚑ Stocks 246,925 mt, UNCHANGED on the day, ENDING thirty-five consecutive daily declines; the series ran 254,900 (August 10) → 246,925 (August 17) → 246,925 (August 18). Cash is −$154.00 (−4.57%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00. This brief's own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,265.10, MA10 $3,279.55, MA20 $3,244.31, MA40 $3,190.65, MA60 $3,320.78 — cash at $3,219.00 now sits BELOW MA5, MA10, MA20 and MA60 and above MA40 only. ⚑ MA20 was reclaimed territory on August 17 (cash +$29.47 over it) and is LOST on August 18 (−$25.31). The LME MA caliber is likewise verified: recomputing the August 17 window reproduces the published MA5 of $3,295.90 and MA10 of $3,284.75 exactly. ⊘ TradingEconomics carries aluminium at $3,217.00, −$42.45 (−1.30%), month +2.53%, year +25.41%; a separate caliber prints $3,237, −0.69%. TE's $3,217.00 is the closest agreement with Westmetall in several weeks but is still not reconciled here. ⊘ Secondary reporting on warrants — cancelled warrants −11.32% to 11,750 mt against live warrants steady at 244,650 mt — sums to 256,400 mt, which is the AUGUST 7 stock figure, not August 18's; it is an early-August caliber and is labelled as such rather than carried as current. THIRD, SPOT: ⊘ SMM's own A00 quotation for August 18 was not retrievable at writing (the price pages sit behind a login). On the Changjiang non-ferrous / metal.com caliber, A00 printed 23,900 yuan/mt on August 18, −170 (−0.71%) against August 17's 24,070. Basis −35 against AL2609's close of 23,935 and −55 against AL2610's 23,955, from +55/+35 on August 17 — a −90/−90 swing in one session. East China spot premium/discount quoted at a discount of 40 to par against the 09 contract. The A00 sequence now reads 24,120 (August 13) → 23,870 (August 14) → 24,070 (August 17) → 23,900 (August 18). ⊘ SMM's August 18 spot midday commentary and its sentiment indices were not retrievable at writing; the August 17 indices are carried: East China shipment 3.15 (+0.01 w/w) and procurement 3.40 (+0.06 w/w); Central China shipment 3.09 (unchanged) and procurement 2.90 (−0.07 w/w); Central China transactions at a discount of 90–110 against the 09 contract; near-month spread in contango of 20–50 yuan/mt. FOURTH, INVENTORY: ⚑ SMM three-region daily ingot inventory, August 18: Guangdong 173,000 mt, Wuxi 323,000 mt, Gongyi 211,000 mt, total 707,000 mt, +1,000 mt on the previous period (706,000). SMM social inventory unchanged at the Monday August 17 print of 886,000 mt with the next print due Thursday August 20; Monday series 917,000 → 886,000, Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000. LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged. Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w, carried — ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt; the August 6 print in that series was 24,000 mt, −200 w/w. Billet inventory +4,000 w/w on the August 10 caliber, carried. FIFTH, MACRO — THE FED: Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 18 at 20:35 EDT, prices the September 16 FOMC at 66.7% hold (3.50–3.75%) and 33.3% HIKE (3.75–4.00%), with a 0% chance of a cut, off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.330. ⚑ That 33.3% is BELOW the 35.3% carried yesterday. October 28: hold 52.9%, one hike 40.2%, two hikes 6.9%, off futures at 96.280. December 9: 3.50–3.75% 34.6%, 3.75–4.00% 44.6%, 4.00–4.25% 18.4%, 4.25–4.50% 2.4%, off futures at 96.170 — implying approximately 65.4% odds of at least one hike by December (derivation). The target range is 3.50–3.75%, unchanged at the July 29 meeting. ⚑ THE JULY 28–29 FOMC MINUTES ARE RELEASED TODAY, WEDNESDAY AUGUST 19, AT 14:00 ET. ⚑ CORRECTION TO CARRIED TIMING: the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs AUGUST 27–29, not this week, with Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole address on Friday August 28 on 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy'. DOLLAR: the index at 99.40, the lowest since June 2026, −1.52% over four weeks and +1.27% over twelve months; ⊘ a separate caliber describes it around 99.5 in a third consecutive declining session and the calibers are not reconciled. ENERGY: Brent $91.675, +$0.66 (+0.72%), month +2.75%, year +37.16%, Q3 forecast $90.41 — a fourth consecutive higher session; the US and Iran show little sign of an agreement to end the conflict and reopen Hormuz, the naval blockade continues, eight vessel attacks in the Strait are reported this month, and US crude inventories fell 328,000 barrels. CHINA POLICY: the August LPR is announced tomorrow, August 20; the one-year rate stands at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%, both at record lows. SIXTH, OVERSEAS SUPPLY — ⚑ A NEW ITEM NOT PREVIOUSLY CARRIED: ⊘ on an August 4 report, EGA has SETTLED its Guinea bauxite dispute — a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to Nimba Mining, plus renewal of supply contracts with Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée — restoring feedstock security for the Al Taweelah ALUMINA REFINERY in the UAE. ⊘ The same report says Hormuz disruption still prevents delivery and that the Al Taweelah SMELTER, damaged by the March 28 missile strike, 'could take a year to resume', which sits against this brief's carried line of 18% of capacity with full capacity expected in Q1 2027; the conflict is listed and not reconciled. ⊘ A separate secondary estimate puts combined EGA and Alba disruption at 3–3.5 million mt of 2026 supply, approximately 5% of global output. CARRIED UNCHANGED: Alunorte ramping back to full capacity after ANP approved gas self-import and CELBA granted temporary terminal access, total lost output 100,000–120,000 mt and the Q3 Bauxite & Alumina impact unchanged at USD 75–100 million; Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support over ten years from 2029; Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end) pending restart. ⊘ LME WARRANT STRUCTURE, SECONDARY SOURCES ONLY, CARRIED: one participant holding 80–90% of warranted aluminium stocks and above 90% including the cash date; Russian brands approximately 95% of available metal; off-warrant stocks 85,645 mt; Indian registered stocks 12,450 mt from 236,000 mt twelve months ago; one short position of 155,000–225,000 mt; an Asian Q2 physical premium of $350–353/mt called an eleven-year high; and a DELIVERY TEST NAMED FOR TODAY, AUGUST 19. SPOT AND COST, CARRIED: ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt with the import loss above 1,000 yuan/mt — the theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium widens to 1,115 yuan/mt against AD2610's close of 23,085, from 865 on the August 14 caliber (derivation); registered cast alloy warrants 18,311 mt; A00-to-Foshan-mixed-extrusion-scrap spread approximately 2,250 yuan/mt. ALUMINA SPOT AND COST: ⊘ index 2,666.0 yuan/mt on August 18, −0.86%, on an aggregator caliber — SMM's own index page was not retrievable at writing and the last confirmed SMM print is 2,689.77 on August 14; Australian FOB $349 (+$1), a cargo at $374 CFR Malaysia; August national weighted-average full cost 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt and cash cost 2,530–2,650 yuan/mt. ⚑ At 2,666.0 the index sits BELOW the bottom of the full-cost band by 34 yuan and only 16 yuan above the top of the cash-cost band (derivation). ⊘ A late-July SMM analysis put the industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt with port alumina inventories at 940,000 mt and nearly 3 million mt of new south-China capacity pending; that cost figure conflicts with the August 2,700–2,820 band and is not reconciled. FUNDAMENTALS, CARRIED: July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m on a 31-day caliber; month-end existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt, flat m/m; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; July billet operating rate 58.3%, a year-to-date and three-year high, with an August forecast of approximately 56.9% and processing fees already below the industry average production cost; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting (foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, sheet and strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary aluminium alloy 43.9); passive cuts in southwest China continuing; Guinea first-half bauxite exports a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y, with refinery bauxite stocks near 96 days. DOWNSTREAM, CARRIED: CPCA July passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y; internal-combustion retail 510,000 units, −41%; NEV retail 951,000 units, −3.9% with penetration 65.1%; NEV exports 540,000 units, +147.8%. CHINA DATA, CARRIED AND CONFIRMED: July industrial output +4.5% y/y against 4.8% expected; retail sales +0.6% against 1.5%; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% against −6.0% and −5.7% in the first half; surveyed urban unemployment 5.2%; new-home prices −0.1% m/m and −3.2% y/y; July M2 +7.7%; outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; TSF stock +7.4%; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion yuan against 12.87 trillion a year earlier. US DATA, CARRIED: July retail sales −0.6% m/m, the first decline in nine months; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0; July producer prices unchanged. GEOPOLITICS, CARRIED: the fee-free Hormuz transit window under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum lapsed around August 16; Hegseth has called the naval blockade indefinite; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels since July 13. SMM's forecast bands, carried: SHFE 23,600–24,450; LME $3,180–3,330.
Steven Yuan
NIGHT SESSION PRINT UNOBSERVED SMM's Morning Meeting Summary not published at writing; the Aug 18 night print is not in this brief
⚑ THE MA10 RECLAIM FAILS ITS FIRST RETEST AL2610 closes 23,955, −80 (−0.33%). That is 75.00 BELOW the recomputed MA10 of 24,030.00. The reclaim lasted one session
It opened at its high and never beat it Open 24,040 = high 24,040. Low 23,825, close 23,955. A whole session spent fading the opening print
MA10 rose INTO the price 24,015.50 → 24,030.00 while the close fell 80. The gap widened from both directions at once
⚑ BASIS FLIPS BACK TO A −35 DISCOUNT ⊘ A00 23,900 vs AL2609's 23,935. Was +55 on Aug 17. A −90 swing in one day; the flip also lasted one session
⊘ A00 23,900, −170 (−0.71%) Changjiang/metal.com caliber; SMM's own quote not retrievable at writing. East China quoted −40 to par vs the 09 contract
⚑ LME GOES INTO A $15.00 CONTANGO Aug 18 cash $3,219.00 vs 3M $3,234.00. Was $0.00 on Aug 17 and +$2.00 on Aug 14. The curve inverted the wrong way
⚑ THE 35-DAY DRAW ENDS — 246,925 UNCHANGED Zero change on the day, after thirty-five consecutive daily declines. Both LME pillars flattened in one session
LME cash −$53.00 (−1.62%), loses MA20 Was +$29.47 over MA20 on Aug 17, now −$25.31 under it. Below MA5/MA10/MA20/MA60; above MA40 only
Cash −$154.00 (−4.57%) from the Aug 11 high $3,373.00 → $3,219.00 in five sessions. SMM's band floor is $3,180
⚑ THREE-REGION INVENTORY TURNS TO A BUILD Aug 18: 707,000 mt, +1,000. Guangdong 173,000, Wuxi 323,000, Gongyi 211,000. Social series still at Monday's 886,000
⚑ ALUMINA LOSES EVERY MOVING AVERAGE AO2610 2,681 (−16, −0.59%), low 2,657. Below MA5 2,693.00, MA10 2,694.50, MA20 2,684.40, MA30 2,689.50, MA40 2,710.88, MA60 2,760.55
⊘ Alumina index 2,666.0 (−0.86%) Aggregator caliber. Now BELOW the full-cost band 2,700–2,820 and only 16 above the cash-cost top of 2,650
⚑ But the money went INTO alumina Alumina volume 307,533 BEAT aluminium's 274,920; alumina OI +23,198 while aluminium OI −4,304
Aluminium OI −4,304 on a falling price Reconciles exactly ex-AL2608's expired 14,875: 645,941 − 14,875 − 4,304 = 626,762. Longs leaving, not fresh shorts (derivation)
Aluminium fell least in its own complex Close-over-close: aluminium −0.33% vs alumina −0.59% vs cast alloy −0.62% — and vs LME cash −1.62%
⚑ HIKE ODDS EASE TO 33.3% Investing.com, Aug 18 20:35 EDT: hold 66.7%, hike 33.3%, cut 0%. Down from 35.3%. The unstable pair starts resolving
Oct hold 52.9%; ≥1 hike by Dec ≈65.4% Oct 28: 52.9/40.2/6.9. Dec 9: 34.6/44.6/18.4/2.4 (derivation). Target range 3.50–3.75%
⚑ FOMC MINUTES TODAY, 14:00 ET The July 28–29 minutes — the meeting that held with three hawkish dissents. The one scheduled macro event of the session
⚑ CORRECTION: JACKSON HOLE IS AUG 27–29 Not this week. Warsh's first address as Chair is Friday Aug 28: 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy'
Dollar 99.40, lowest since June −1.52% over four weeks, +1.27% over twelve months. ⊘ A separate caliber has it near 99.5; not reconciled
⚑ Brent $91.675, fourth straight higher session +$0.66 (+0.72%), month +2.75%, year +37.16%. No US–Iran agreement; eight Hormuz vessel attacks this month
⚑ NEW: EGA SETTLES THE GUINEA DISPUTE ⊘ Aug 4 report: lump-sum payment for the Nimba transfer, CBG contracts renewed. Feedstock security for the Al Taweelah REFINERY restored
⊘ But the smelter 'could take a year' Same report, against this brief's carried 18%-of-capacity / Q1 2027 line. Hormuz still blocks delivery. Conflict not reconciled
⚑ THE AUG 19 DELIVERY TEST IS TODAY ⊘ Secondary: one holder at 80–90% of warrants, short 155–225kt. A $15 contango on the eve of it is the awkward fact
Cast alloy holds only MA40 AD2610 23,085 (−145, −0.62%), low 22,960. Above MA40 23,053.00 by 32.00; below MA60 23,102.42 by 17.42
ADC12 premium over AD2610 widens to 1,115 24,200 carried against AD2610's 23,085, from 865 on the Aug 14 caliber (derivation). The futures fell, the spot did not
⚑ MA caliber verified against raw exchange files Recomputing Aug 17 reproduces the published MA5 24,109.00, MA10 24,015.50, LME MA5 $3,295.90 and MA10 $3,284.75 exactly

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与未观测项

  • 本期写于 8月19日(周三)上午。
  • ⚑ 8月18日夜盘(8月18日 21:00 至 8月19日 01:00)未观测:写稿时 SMM 尚未发布《铝晨会纪要》。
  • ⚑ 亦无 8月19日的新 SMM A00 报价(SMM 通常于 11:00 前后报价)。
  • ⊘ 8月18日 SMM 自身的 A00 报价与现货午评亦未取得(价格页面需登录);本期采用长江有色/metal.com 口径并明确标注。

⚑ 沪铝:收复失败——MA10 一日而失(数据取自上期所自身日行情文件)

  • ⚑ AL2610(主力,持仓 255,742 手,+10,709):开 24,040,高 24,040,低 23,825,收 23,955,结算 23,930,前结算 23,990;较前结算价 −35(−0.15%),结算对结算 −60(−0.25%),收盘对收盘较 8月17日的 24,035 下跌 80 元(−0.33%);成交 123,793 手。
  • ⚑ 开盘价与最高价为同一价位 24,040——全天未曾高于开盘一档。
  • AL2609:开 24,015,高 24,015,低 23,815,收 23,935,结算 23,915;较前结算价 −45,收盘对收盘 −80(−0.33%);成交 104,270 手,持仓 175,204 手(−20,975)。
  • AL2611:收 23,950,持仓 75,960 手(+2,178)。AL2612:收 23,925,持仓 56,381 手(+1,888)。
  • 品种合计:成交 274,920 手(前值 323,919,−15.1%),持仓 626,762 手(−4,304)。

⚑ 均线:自建口径本期已获校验,而 MA10 反向上行

  • ⚑ 校验声明:以上期所原始日行情文件重算 8月17日窗口,可精确复现前期已公布的沪铝 MA5 24,109.00 与 MA10 24,015.50,以及氧化铝 MA5 2,702.20、铸造铝合金 MA5 23,396.00 与 MA10 23,435.00。本简报自建口径由此得到独立验证。
  • 底层收盘价(主力=持仓最大合约):8月4日 23,810、8月5日 23,785、8月6日 23,810、8月7日 24,040、8月10日 24,165、8月11日 24,250、8月12日 24,285、8月13日 24,090、8月14日 23,885、8月17日 24,035、8月18日 23,955。
  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(至 8月18日,102 个交易日):MA5 24,050.00、MA10 24,030.00、MA20 23,731.75、MA30 23,526.67、MA40 23,360.13、MA60 23,636.58。
  • ⚑ 收盘 23,955:低于 MA5 95.00 元,低于 MA10 75.00 元;高于 MA20 223.25 元、MA30 428.33 元、MA40 594.87 元、MA60 318.42 元。
  • ⚑ MA10 由 24,015.50 上行至 24,030.00,而价格下跌 80 元——缺口由两个方向同时扩大。收复所需幅度由 19.50 元升至 75.00 元。
  • 60 个交易日收盘价区间 22,370–24,825(延续)。⊘ 20 个交易日窗口已滚动至 7月22日–8月18日,其下沿本期未重算——锚定前期下沿的 7月21日收盘价 23,160 已移出窗口;窗口上沿维持 24,285(8月12日)。SMM 预期区间维持 23,600–24,450。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:氧化铝失守全部六条均线

  • ⚑ AO2610(主力,持仓 292,323 手,+21,208):开 2,697,高 2,700,低 2,657,收 2,681,结算 2,678,前结算 2,696;较前结算价 −15,收盘对收盘 −16(−0.59%);成交 226,980 手。AO2609 收 2,683,结算 2,682,持仓 91,013 手(−4,861)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝品种合计:成交 307,533 手,持仓 560,122 手(+23,198)。氧化铝成交量超过沪铝的 274,920 手,持仓逆势增加,而沪铝持仓减少 4,304 手。
  • AD2610(主力,持仓 18,861 手,+459):开 23,230,高 23,245,低 22,960,收 23,085,结算 23,070,前结算 23,250;较前结算价 −165,收盘对收盘 −145(−0.62%);成交 9,829 手。AD2609 收 23,065,结算 23,015,持仓 4,647 手(−303)。品种合计成交 13,293 手,持仓 24,913 手(+172)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝均线(自建口径):MA5 2,693.00、MA10 2,694.50、MA20 2,684.40、MA30 2,689.50、MA40 2,710.88、MA60 2,760.55。收盘 2,681 低于全部六条。
  • ⊘ 口径提示:重构的 8月5日–8月10日氧化铝收盘价可将前期已公布的 8月17日 MA10 复现至 0.4 元以内(窗口求和相差 4 元),说明该区间内有一个主力合约选择与前期口径不同;列出但不调和。
  • 铸造铝合金均线(自建口径):MA5 23,298.00、MA10 23,400.00、MA20 23,274.00、MA30 23,167.33、MA40 23,053.00、MA60 23,102.42。收盘 23,085 仅守住 MA40(+32.00),低于 MA60 17.42 元。

⚑ 伦铝:曲线转为 contango,而三十五日去库同日终止

  • ⚑ Westmetall 官方口径:8月18日现货结算 3,219.00 美元(−53.00,−1.62%),三个月 3,234.00 美元(−38.00,−1.16%)。
  • ⚑ 现货对三个月价差为 −15.00 美元——即十五美元的 contango(贴水结构);8月17日为 0.00,8月14日为 +2.00。曲线并未回到升水,而是反向翻转。
  • ⚑ 库存 246,925 吨,与前一交易日持平(零变动)——终结连续三十五个交易日的下降。序列:254,900(8月10日)→ 246,925(8月17日)→ 246,925(8月18日)。
  • 现货价较 8月11日周期高点 3,373.00 美元累计下跌 154.00 美元(−4.57%)。
  • ⚑ 本简报自建伦铝均线(Westmetall 现货结算价):MA5 3,265.10、MA10 3,279.55、MA20 3,244.31、MA40 3,190.65、MA60 3,320.78 美元。现货 3,219.00 低于 MA5、MA10、MA20 与 MA60,仅高于 MA40(+28.35)。
  • ⚑ MA20 于 8月17日尚为已收复区域(高出 29.47 美元),8月18日失守(低 25.31 美元)。伦铝均线口径同样已获校验:重算 8月17日窗口可精确复现已公布的 MA5 3,295.90 与 MA10 3,284.75。
  • ⊘ TE 口径报 3,217.00 美元(−42.45,−1.30%),月 +2.53%、年 +25.41%;另一口径报 3,237 美元(−0.69%)。TE 的 3,217.00 为数周以来与 Westmetall 最接近的一次,但本期仍不作调和。
  • ⊘ 仓单二手数据(注销仓单 −11.32% 至 11,750 吨、在库仓单 244,650 吨)加总为 256,400 吨,恰为 8月7日的库存数,而非 8月18日;该项系 8 月初口径,本期按此标注,不作为当期数据延续。

解读

  • ⚑ 判别标准的解算:昨日本简报写明「须关注的不是高点,而是 24,015.50 能否在首次回踩中守住」。回踩失败,且失败形态为最差的一种——开盘即最高价,全天单边下行,并无冲高受阻的过程,而是自第一档起的持续派发(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 价格位置:23,955 位于 8月12日周期高点 24,470 与 8月14日低点 23,795 所构成的 675 元区间内,自低点起算 160 元,约处该区间 23.7% 分位——较 8月17日的 36% 明显下移(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 回撤修复比例:8月13–14 日累计下跌 400 元,8月17日收复 150 元(37.5%),8月18日回吐 80 元,净修复 70 元(17.5%)(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 板块内部排序:按收盘对收盘计,沪铝 −0.33% 优于氧化铝 −0.59% 与铸造铝合金 −0.62%,亦大幅优于伦铝现货的 −1.62%。铝端在下跌中相对抗跌(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 跨市场比价推算:23,955 / 3,219.00 = 7.442,而 8月17日为 24,035 / 3,272 = 7.346、8月14日为 7.354。单日跳升约 0.096,为本轮该关系中最大的单日变动。国内仅承接了离岸跌幅的约五分之一——其含义或为国内韧性,或为进口亏损扩大后终将被套利修复;本简报不判断(此为推算与解读)。
  • ⚑ 持仓推算:品种合计 −4,304 手。剔除已到期的 AL2608(8月17日持仓 14,875 手)后可精确对账:645,941 − 14,875 = 631,066,631,066 − 4,304 = 626,762。价格下跌伴随总持仓下降,形态更接近多头减仓离场,而非空头新增(此为推算与解读)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:基差翻转同样只维持了一个交易日

  • ⊘ 口径说明:8月18日 SMM 自身 A00 报价写稿时未取得(需登录)。以下为长江有色/metal.com 口径。
  • ⚑ A00 铝锭(8月18日):23,900 元/吨,下跌 170 元(−0.71%)。
  • ⚑ 基差:对 AL2609 收盘价 23,935 贴水 35 元;对 AL2610 收盘价 23,955 贴水 55 元。8月17日为升水 55 / 升水 35——即单日摆动 −90 / −90 元。
  • ⚑ A00 序列:24,120(8月13日)→ 23,870(8月14日)→ 24,070(8月17日)→ 23,900(8月18日)。
  • 华东成交:对 09 合约贴水 40 元至平水。
  • ⊘ 华中成交(延续 8月17日口径):对 09 合约贴水 90–110 元。近月合约价差正向 20–50 元(contango,延续)。

⚑ 氧化铝:跌破完全成本区间下沿

  • ⊘ 氧化铝现货指数(8月18日,聚合口径):2,666.0 元/吨,−0.86%。SMM 自身指数页面写稿时未取得,最后一次确认的 SMM 印记为 8月14日的 2,689.77 元。
  • ⚑ 对照 8 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,700–2,820 元/吨:2,666.0 已低于该区间下沿 34 元。对照现金成本 2,530–2,650 元/吨:仅高出区间上沿 16 元(此为推算)。
  • 澳洲 FOB:349 美元/吨(+1);另有一船以 374 美元/吨 CFR 马来西亚成交(延续)。
  • ⊘ 7 月底 SMM 一篇分析将行业平均完全成本列为约 2,530 元/吨,并载港口氧化铝库存 94 万吨、华南待投新产能近 300 万吨。该成本数与 8 月的 2,700–2,820 区间冲突,列出但不调和。

再生铝与合金

  • ADC12:24,200 元/吨(延续);进口亏损已超过 1,000 元/吨。
  • ⚑ ADC12 现货对 AD2610 的理论升水扩大至 1,115 元/吨(24,200 对 23,085),8月14日口径为 865 元——期货下跌而现货未跟随(此为推算)。
  • 注册铸造铝合金仓单:18,311 吨(延续)。
  • A00 与佛山地区混合铝挤压废料价差:约 2,250 元/吨(延续)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本简报昨日称升水 55 元为「本期最干净的现货证据」,并指出其可持续性直接决定现货一栏的方向。该证据存续一个交易日后消失,现货一栏由「跟涨且华东领先」退回「跟跌且基差转贴水」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 一项须并列的机制读数:A00 下跌 170 元而 AL2610 仅下跌 80 元——现货跌幅大于期货,说明本轮回落中现货端的松动快于盘面,与 8月17日「现货跑赢合约」的方向完全相反(此为推算与解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝跌破完全成本下沿,对氧化铝自身构成下方约束,但对电解铝而言是明确利空:成本通道不仅未跟随金属上行,而是在反向扣减(此为解读)。

⚑ 伦铝曲线与仓单:三个交易日连续未获曲线印证

  • ⚑ 8月14日 +2.00 美元 → 8月17日 0.00 美元 → 8月18日 −15.00 美元。升水结构不仅未扩大,而已翻转为贴水结构。
  • ⚑ 同日库存零变动(246,925 吨),终结三十五日连降。两根支柱在同一交易日同时走平。
  • ⊘ 仓单集中度报道(延续,仅二手来源):单一参与者持有注册铝仓单 80–90%,计入现货日头寸后超过 90%;俄罗斯品牌约占可用伦铝 95%;非注册库存 85,645 吨;印度注册库存 12,450 吨;单一空头头寸 155,000–225,000 吨;亚洲二季度现货升水 350–353 美元/吨;并点名 8月19日(即今日)为交割检验日。

三 · 库存

⚑ 高频序列转为累库,而社库印记尚未更新

  • ⚑ SMM 三地铝锭日度库存(8月18日):广东 17.3 万吨、无锡 32.3 万吨、巩义 21.1 万吨,合计 70.7 万吨,较上期(70.6 万吨)增加 0.1 万吨。
  • SMM 社会库存:维持 8月17日(周一)印记 886,000 吨;下一印记为周四(8月20日)。周一序列 917,000 → 886,000;周四序列 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000。
  • 自 5 月初约 147 万吨的年内高点起,累计去库已超过 58.4 万吨(此为推算,基于 8月17日印记)。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,925 吨,零变动,终结连续三十五个交易日下降。
  • 铸造铝合金锭库存(延续):25,500 吨,周增 1,500 吨——结束连续十周去库(累计去库 38,900 吨);该序列 8月6日印记为 24,000 吨,周减 200 吨。
  • 铝棒库存(8月10日口径,延续):周增 4,000 吨;但社库与厂库均处近年同期偏低水平。

解读

  • ⚑ 库存一栏的结构已经改变:四条序列中三条已转为累库或走平——LME 持平、三地日度 +0.1 万吨、铸造合金锭 +1,500 吨、铝棒 +4,000 吨。仍在去化的仅剩铝锭社库一条,而其最新印记已是两日前(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 昨日本简报指出「去库仍在进行,速度已放慢」(周四 −35,000 吨 → 周一 −12,000 吨)。三地日度转正为该减速提供了第一条同向的高频证据,但两者口径不同,不可直接外推至周四社库印记(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 周四(8月20日)的社库印记是本周唯一能够反驳上述结构变化的国内数据;若其继续去化,则「三条走平」应被读作口径差异;若转为累库,则 8月13日至 8月17日的去库应被追认为本轮的尾声(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美联储:加息概率回落,不稳定组合开始解算

  • ⚑ Investing.com《美联储利率监测》(更新于 8月18日 20:35 美东):9月16日 FOMC 维持 3.50%–3.75% 概率 66.7%,加息至 3.75%–4.00% 概率 33.3%,降息概率 0%;对应 30 天联邦基金期货 96.330。
  • ⚑ 33.3% 低于昨日所载的 35.3%——方向由上行转为回落。
  • 10月28日:维持 52.9%,加息一次 40.2%,加息两次 6.9%(期货 96.280)。12月9日:3.50–3.75% 34.6%、3.75–4.00% 44.6%、4.00–4.25% 18.4%、4.25–4.50% 2.4%(期货 96.170),隐含年内至少加息一次概率约 65.4%(此为推算)。
  • 当前目标区间 3.50%–3.75%,于 7月29日会议维持不变。
  • ⚑ 今日(8月19日)美东 14:00 公布 7月28–29日 FOMC 会议纪要——即那次以三票鹰派反对维持利率的会议。
  • ⚑ 时点更正:杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会为 8月27–29日,并非本周;沃什就任主席后的首次杰克逊霍尔演讲在 8月28日(周五),主题为「金融创新:对支付与政策的影响」。

美元与能源

  • 美元指数 99.40,为 2026 年 6 月以来最低;四周 −1.52%,十二个月 +1.27%。⊘ 另一口径将其描述为约 99.5、连续第三个下跌交易日;两口径并列,不作调和。
  • ⚑ 布伦特:91.675 美元/桶,+0.66(+0.72%);月 +2.75%、年 +37.16%;三季度预测 90.41 美元——连续第四个上涨交易日。
  • ⚑ 驱动:美伊双方均未显示达成协议以结束冲突并重开霍尔木兹海峡的迹象;美方海上封锁延续;本月海峡内已报告八起船只遇袭;美国原油库存减少 32.8 万桶。
  • 6月17日《伊斯兰堡备忘录》项下的免费通行窗口已于 8月16日前后到期;赫格塞思称封锁「无限期」;自 7月13日起美中央司令部已劝返 59 艘商船(延续)。

中国政策与数据

  • ⚑ 8 月 LPR 于明日(8月20日)公布。一年期 3.0%、五年期 3.5%,均处历史低位。
  • 7 月经济活动数据(延续,已确认):工业增加值 +4.5%(预期 4.8%);社零 +0.6%(预期 1.5%);1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%(预期 −6.0%,上半年 −5.7%);城镇调查失业率 5.2%;新建商品住宅价格环比 −0.1%、同比 −3.2%。
  • 7 月金融数据(延续):M2 +7.7%;人民币贷款余额 +5.1%(历史低位);社融存量 +7.4%;1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元(上年同期 12.87 万亿元)。
  • 美国数据(延续):7 月零售销售环比 −0.6%;密歇根大学 8 月信心初值 51.0;7 月生产者价格持平。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 利多铝价:9 月加息概率由 35.3% 回落至 33.3%;布伦特连续第四日上涨并站上 91.675 美元;美元维持 6 月以来低位,四周 −1.52%。
  • ⚑ 利空铝价:美元的下行未能延续;今日 FOMC 纪要来自一次三票鹰派反对的会议,其抬升加息概率的能力大于压低的能力(此为解读);中国 7 月三条要害线的疲弱未被任何新数据修正。
  • ⚑ 昨日隔离的不稳定组合已开始解算,且方向对铝有利:加息概率向美元靠拢,而非美元向概率靠拢。但该解算仅完成一个交易日、幅度仅 2.0 个百分点,不足以改变一栏的定性(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 净读数:宏观一栏维持「中性偏利空」,较昨日边际改善但未转向(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 海外供应:新增一项此前未载事项——EGA 与几内亚的铝土矿争端已和解

  • ⚑ ⊘ 据 8月4日报道:EGA 已就几内亚铝土矿争端达成和解——几内亚向 GAC 支付一笔一次性款项,用于资产向国有 Nimba Mining 的转让;同时与几内亚铝土矿公司(CBG)续签供应合同。
  • ⚑ 影响:该和解恢复了 EGA 位于阿联酋的 Al Taweelah **氧化铝精炼厂的原料保障。争端始于 2024 年 10 月几内亚海关暂停发运,2025 年升级为吊销采矿许可并将权益重新划归 Nimba Mining。**
  • ⚑ ⊘ 但同一报道指出两项障碍未解:其一,霍尔木兹航运中断仍使铝土矿无法交付;其二,3月28日导弹袭击损毁的 Al Taweelah **电解铝厂「可能需要一年才能恢复」。**
  • ⚑ ⊘ 该「可能需要一年」与本简报所载的「运行率 18%、预计 2027 年一季度满产」存在冲突,列出但不调和。
  • ⚑ ⊘ 另有二手估计:EGA 与 Alba 的合计扰动可能移除 2026 年 300 万–350 万吨供应,约占全球产量 5%。
  • 其余海外项(延续):Alunorte 正恢复满产(ANP 批准自进口天然气、CELBA 临时终端准入;累计减产 10.0 万–12.0 万吨;三季度影响维持 7,500 万–1 亿美元);Tomago 获自 2029 年起十年 25 亿澳元支持;Slovalco(四季度)与密苏里冶炼厂(年底)待复产。

国内供应与成本(延续)

  • 7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%(31 天口径);月末建成产能约 4,629 万吨,环比持平。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预计 78.5%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%。
  • 西南地区被动减产延续。
  • ⚑ 成本读数更新:按 ⊘ 8月18日氧化铝指数 2,666.0 元计,已低于 8 月完全成本区间 2,700–2,820 元的下沿 34 元,高于现金成本区间 2,530–2,650 元的上沿 16 元。行业整体已由「完全成本线下、现金成本线上」推进至更贴近现金成本线的位置(此为推算)。
  • 几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%;氧化铝厂铝土矿库存约 96 天。

下游需求(延续,无新增印记)

  • 乘联会 7 月数据:乘用车零售 146.1 万辆,同比 −20.9%;燃油车零售 51.0 万辆,同比 −41%;新能源零售 95.1 万辆,同比 −3.9%,渗透率 65.1%;新能源出口 54.0 万辆,同比 +147.8%。
  • SMM 7 月铝加工行业 PMI 42.2%,环比 −4.4 个百分点,七个细分板块全部收缩:铝箔 39.0、建筑型材 39.7、再生合金 37.6、板带 44.8、工业型材 42.1、线缆 44.4、原生铝合金 43.9。
  • 铝棒:7 月开工率 58.3%(年内新高),8 月预期回落至约 56.9%;加工费已低于行业平均生产成本。
  • 内需一栏仍在信贷、加工、地产、汽车、社零五处同时偏弱,固定资产投资为恶化最快的一项(延续)。

解读

  • ⚑ 供应端唯一无争议的利多仍是 7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%:它同时解释社库去化与现货偏紧,且不依赖任何海外事件。本期该项的地位反而上升——因为其余支柱均已减弱(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 海外扰动一栏本期再遭一次削弱,但方向复杂:EGA 的几内亚和解利空(恢复原料),而其电解铝厂「或需一年」则利多(推迟复产)。两者作用于产业链的不同环节,不可相互抵销;本简报将其分列而非合并(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝跌破完全成本下沿,同时氧化铝持仓大幅增加、成交超过沪铝——资金正在为「成本继续下行」定价,而非为「成本支撑铝价」定价(此为解读)。

六 · 原铝现货市场

⊘ 8月18日 SMM 现货午评与情绪指数写稿时未取得

  • ⚑ 华东成交(8月18日,长江有色口径):对 09 合约贴水 40 元至平水。
  • ⊘ 华中成交、近月价差与情绪指数均延续 8月17日口径,本期无新印记。

情绪指数(SMM,8月17日,延续)

  • 华东:出货情绪指数 3.15(周环比 +0.01);采购情绪指数 3.40(周环比 +0.06)。
  • 华中:出货情绪指数 3.09(周环比持平);采购情绪指数 2.90(周环比 −0.07)。
  • ⊘ 内部张力(延续):华东采购指数上行 0.06,而同文正文表述为采购情绪回落;并列,不调和。

区域结构

  • ⚑ 华东报价由 8月17日的「贴水 10 至升水 10」转为「贴水 40 至平水」,区间整体下移约 20–30 元(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 华中延续贴水 90–110 元;若该值未变,则华东与华中价差收窄至约 50–110 元(此为推算,基于延续值)。

解读:情绪读数

  • 出货意愿:中性(延续 8月17日:华东 3.15、华中 3.09)。
  • 采购意愿:延续口径下华东偏强、华中偏弱;但 8月18日基差由升水转贴水,说明周一的采购改善未能延续至第二个交易日(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 综合读数:现货一栏由「跟涨且华东领先」退回「跟跌且跌幅大于期货」。A00 下跌 170 元对 AL2610 下跌 80 元,是本期最直接的现货转弱证据(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日 11:00 前后的 SMM A00 报价,将检验贴水 35 元是否继续扩大;同时可用以校验本期采用的长江有色口径与 SMM 口径之间的差异(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动

利多因素

  • ⚑ 9 月加息概率由 35.3% 回落至 33.3%,方向由上行转为回落;降息概率仍为 0%,但加息定价在减弱。
  • ⚑ 昨日隔离的「加息概率上行 + 美元走弱」不稳定组合,首个交易日的解算方向对铝有利。
  • ⚑ 布伦特 91.675 美元,连续第四个上涨交易日,+0.66(+0.72%);美伊无进展,霍尔木兹本月已报八起船只遇袭。
  • ⚑ 美元指数 99.40,维持 6 月以来最低,四周 −1.52%。
  • ⚑ 沪铝在下跌中相对抗跌:−0.33% 优于氧化铝 −0.59%、铸造铝合金 −0.62%,并大幅优于伦铝现货 −1.62%。
  • ⚑ 跨市比价由 7.346 升至 7.442,国内仅承接离岸跌幅约五分之一(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 8月14日低点 23,795 未被跌破——8月18日低点 23,825 仅差 30 元,地板仍然完整。
  • ⚑ 品种合计持仓 −4,304 手,价格下跌伴随总持仓下降,形态偏多头减仓而非空头新增(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ ⊘ EGA Al Taweelah 电解铝厂「或需一年才能恢复」,较本简报所载的 2027 年一季度满产更为推迟。
  • ⚑ ⊘ 氧化铝指数 2,666.0 元已跌破完全成本下沿、逼近现金成本上沿,进一步下行空间受成本约束(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 若仓单集中度报道属实(单一参与者 80–90%、空头头寸 155,000–225,000 吨),今日 8月19日交割仍存在实物挤压风险。
  • ⊘ 亚洲二季度现货升水 350–353 美元/吨,被称十一年高位。
  • 7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%,直接减少可入库资源——本期仍为供应端唯一无争议的利多。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预期 78.5%,持续挤压铸锭。
  • 铝棒社库与厂库均处近年同期低位;西南被动减产延续;建成产能 4,629 万吨环比持平,接近天花板。
  • 8 月进口铝土矿受雨季影响发运预计收缩。

利空因素

  • ⚑ MA10 收复在首次回踩即告失败:AL2610 收 23,955,低于重算后的 MA10(24,030.00)75.00 元,低于 MA5(24,050.00)95.00 元。
  • ⚑ 失败形态为最差的一种:开盘价 24,040 即为全天最高价,全程单边下行,无冲高受阻过程(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ MA10 反向上行(24,015.50 → 24,030.00),收复所需幅度由 19.50 元升至 75.00 元。
  • ⚑ 基差由升水 55 元翻回贴水 35 元,单日摆动 −90 元;升水仅存续一个交易日。
  • ⚑ ⊘ A00 下跌 170 元至 23,900 元,跌幅(−0.71%)大于 AL2610 的 −0.33%——现货松动快于盘面。
  • ⚑ 伦铝曲线由 0.00 美元转为 −15.00 美元的 contango:市场已开始为「延后持有」付费。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,925 吨零变动,终结三十五日连降——两根支柱在同一交易日同时走平。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货 −53.00 美元(−1.62%),失守 MA20(3,244.31),距 8月11日高点已回落 154.00 美元(−4.57%)。
  • ⚑ 上述曲线走平发生在被点名为「本周最大事件风险」的 8月19日交割检验前夜——曲线连续三个交易日未印证仓单集中度论断(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ SMM 三地铝锭日度库存转为累库 0.1 万吨至 70.7 万吨。
  • ⚑ 库存四条序列中三条已走平或累库(LME 持平、三地 +0.1 万吨、铸造合金锭 +1,500 吨、铝棒 +4,000 吨),仍在去化的仅剩社库一条且印记已两日未更新。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,681,失守全部六条均线(MA5/MA10/MA20/MA30/MA40/MA60)。
  • ⚑ ⊘ 氧化铝指数 2,666.0 元(−0.86%),成本通道由「未跟随」转为「反向扣减」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝持仓 +23,198 手、成交 307,533 手超过沪铝的 274,920 手,而沪铝持仓 −4,304 手——资金由金属流向原料的空头侧(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金 AD2610 收 23,085(−145,−0.62%),仅守住 MA40,失守 MA60。
  • ⚑ 沪铝成交由 323,919 手降至 274,920 手(−15.1%),下跌过程中量能萎缩(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ ⊘ EGA 与几内亚和解,恢复 Al Taweelah 氧化铝厂原料保障;另有二手口径将 EGA 与 Alba 合计扰动列为 300 万–350 万吨。
  • ⚑ 今日 FOMC 纪要来自一次三票鹰派反对维持利率的会议,抬升加息概率的能力大于压低的能力(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 美元的三日下行未能延续;99.40 与约 99.5 两口径并存,方向已转为持平(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 价格分位由 8月17日的约 36% 降至约 23.7%,回撤修复比例由 37.5% 降至 17.5%(此为推算)。
  • 中国 7 月工业增加值 +4.5%、社零 +0.6%、1–7 月固投 −6.7%,三条要害线全部不及预期且固投降幅走阔(延续)。
  • 7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%;铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个细分板块全部收缩;铝棒开工率 8 月预期回落至 56.9%(延续)。
  • 中国 7 月人民币贷款余额 +5.1% 为历史低位;1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元,远低于上年同期(延续)。
  • Alunorte 恢复满产;Tomago 获救;Slovalco 与密苏里待复产——海外扰动一栏持续被拆解(延续)。
  • ⊘ SMM 预期区间维持 23,600–24,450 与 3,180–3,330 美元,均未上调。

八 · 一句话观点

周一的三项通过在周二被逐项交还:MA10 收复在首次回踩即告失败(23,955 对 24,030.00,且开盘价即为全天最高价),升水 55 元翻回贴水 35 元,而三地日度库存转为累库;与此同时伦铝完成了本期最具结构意义的变化——现货对三个月由 0.00 美元转为 −15.00 美元的 contango,库存零变动终结三十五日连降,且这一切恰好发生在被点名的 8月19日交割检验前夜;因此在 8月14日低点 23,795 这一唯一仍然完整的技术事实被检验之前,铝价更可能维持偏弱震荡,而多头论据现已收敛至一条两日前的社库印记、一项铸锭量统计,以及一个连续三个交易日未获远期曲线印证的仓单故事。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 23,795 这一地板。这是本期唯一仍然完整的技术事实:8月18日低点 23,825 距其仅 30 元。守住则回落仍属区间内的高位震荡;跌破则 8月13日以来的结构由「回调」转为「转势」,下方顺序为 23,731.75(MA20)→ 23,645–23,636.58(MA60 区)→ 23,600(SMM 区间下沿)→ 23,526.67(MA30)。上方顺序:24,015 → 24,030.00(MA10,已失守)→ 24,040 → 24,050.00(MA5)→ 24,135 → 24,285。
  • ⚑ 8月18日夜盘印记(本期未观测)。重点为夜盘能否重回 24,030.00 之上,以及在伦铝 −1.62% 之后夜盘是否补跌——周二日盘仅承接了离岸跌幅的约五分之一,该缺口通常在夜盘完成校准(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日的 LME 交割检验(8月19日)与曲线形态。核心不在于是否发生挤压,而在于 −15.00 美元的 contango 是否收窄:若交割日过后曲线仍为贴水结构,则仓单集中度论断在定价上已被否定;若曲线急速回到升水,则该论断获得首个直接证据(⊘ 基于二手来源,须以 LME 自身日度头寸报告核实)。同时关注库存能否恢复下降——零变动一日尚不构成趋势,连续两日则构成。
  • ⚑ 今日 11:00 前后的 SMM A00 报价。两项用途:其一,检验贴水 35 元是否继续扩大;其二,校验本期所用长江有色口径与 SMM 口径的差值,以便下一期恢复单一口径(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 明日(8月20日)双数据日:SMM 周四社会库存印记与中国 8 月 LPR。社库印记是唯一能够反驳「库存结构已转向」的国内数据;LPR 一年期 3.0%、五年期 3.5% 若继续维持,则货币端对固投 −6.7% 无新增对冲(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日美东 14:00 的 7月28–29日 FOMC 会议纪要。该次会议以三票鹰派反对维持利率,纪要中关于反对理由的表述,对 33.3% 的加息概率具有双向重定价能力;同时留意美元能否恢复自 99.40 的下行(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝能否在成本线附近止跌。AO2610 已失守全部六条均线,⊘ 现货指数 2,666.0 元已低于完全成本下沿 34 元、仅高于现金成本上沿 16 元。若在此位置企稳,则成本端由「反向扣减」转为「中性」;若继续下破,则需重新评估电解铝的成本支撑高度(此为解读)。同时关注氧化铝 +23,198 手的新增持仓是否延续。
  • ⚑ 布伦特能否守住 91 美元并录得第五个上涨交易日;霍尔木兹船只遇袭是否继续增加;以及 EGA 几内亚和解后铝土矿实际发运的恢复进度。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and what is unobserved

  • This brief was written on the morning of Wednesday August 19.
  • ⚑ The AUGUST 18 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 18 to 01:00 August 19) is UNOBSERVED: SMM had not published its Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary at writing.
  • ⚑ No new SMM A00 quotation for August 19 exists (SMM quotes around 11:00 Beijing).
  • ⊘ SMM’s own A00 quotation and spot midday commentary for August 18 were also not retrievable (the price pages sit behind a login). This edition uses the Changjiang non-ferrous / metal.com caliber and labels it explicitly.

⚑ SHFE: the reclaim failed — MA10 held for exactly one session (taken from the exchange’s own daily file)

  • ⚑ AL2610, main with open interest 255,742 (+10,709): open 24,040, high 24,040, low 23,825, close 23,955, settlement 23,930, previous settlement 23,990; −35 on the previous settlement (−0.15%), −60 settlement-over-settlement (−0.25%), and −80 (−0.33%) close-over-close against August 17’s 24,035; volume 123,793.
  • ⚑ THE OPEN AND THE HIGH ARE THE SAME PRINT: 24,040. The contract never traded a tick above where it opened.
  • AL2609: open 24,015, high 24,015, low 23,815, close 23,935, settlement 23,915; −45 on the previous settlement and −80 (−0.33%) close-over-close; volume 104,270, open interest 175,204 (−20,975).
  • AL2611: close 23,950, open interest 75,960 (+2,178). AL2612: close 23,925, open interest 56,381 (+1,888).
  • Whole product: volume 274,920 (from 323,919, −15.1%), open interest 626,762 (−4,304).

⚑ Moving averages: the caliber is verified this edition, and MA10 rose INTO the price

  • ⚑ Verification: recomputing the August 17 window from SHFE’s raw daily files reproduces the previously published aluminium MA5 of 24,109.00 and MA10 of 24,015.50 EXACTLY, along with alumina’s MA5 of 2,702.20 and cast alloy’s MA5 of 23,396.00 and MA10 of 23,435.00. This brief’s own caliber is independently confirmed.
  • The underlying closes (main = highest-open-interest contract): August 4 23,810, August 5 23,785, August 6 23,810, August 7 24,040, August 10 24,165, August 11 24,250, August 12 24,285, August 13 24,090, August 14 23,885, August 17 24,035, August 18 23,955.
  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium averages to August 18 (102 sessions): MA5 24,050.00, MA10 24,030.00, MA20 23,731.75, MA30 23,526.67, MA40 23,360.13, MA60 23,636.58.
  • ⚑ Against those, the close of 23,955 is 95.00 BELOW MA5 and 75.00 BELOW MA10, while holding +223.25 over MA20, +428.33 over MA30, +594.87 over MA40 and +318.42 over MA60.
  • ⚑ MA10 ROSE from 24,015.50 to 24,030.00 while the price fell 80. The gap widened from both directions at once, and a reclaim now costs 75.00 rather than the 19.50 that was surrendered.
  • Sixty-session close range carried at 22,370–24,825. ⊘ The twenty-session window has rolled to July 22–August 18 and its low is NOT recomputed this edition — the July 21 close of 23,160 that anchored the prior edition’s low has dropped out; the window top remains 24,285 (August 12). SMM’s band is unchanged at 23,600–24,450.

⚑ Alumina and cast aluminium alloy: alumina lost all six averages

  • ⚑ AO2610, main with open interest 292,323 (+21,208): open 2,697, high 2,700, low 2,657, close 2,681, settlement 2,678, previous settlement 2,696; −15 on the previous settlement and −16 (−0.59%) close-over-close; volume 226,980. AO2609 close 2,683, settlement 2,682, open interest 91,013 (−4,861).
  • ⚑ Whole-product alumina: volume 307,533, open interest 560,122 (+23,198). Alumina’s volume EXCEEDED aluminium’s 274,920 and its open interest BUILT while aluminium’s fell 4,304.
  • AD2610, main with open interest 18,861 (+459): open 23,230, high 23,245, low 22,960, close 23,085, settlement 23,070, previous settlement 23,250; −165 on the previous settlement and −145 (−0.62%) close-over-close; volume 9,829. AD2609 close 23,065, settlement 23,015, open interest 4,647 (−303). Whole product: volume 13,293, open interest 24,913 (+172).
  • ⚑ Alumina averages, own caliber: MA5 2,693.00, MA10 2,694.50, MA20 2,684.40, MA30 2,689.50, MA40 2,710.88, MA60 2,760.55. The close of 2,681 is below ALL SIX.
  • ⊘ Caliber note: the reconstructed August 5–August 10 alumina closes reproduce the published August 17 MA10 to within 0.4 yuan (a four-yuan difference across the summed window), so one main-contract selection in that span differs from the prior edition’s caliber. Listed and not reconciled.
  • Cast alloy averages, own caliber: MA5 23,298.00, MA10 23,400.00, MA20 23,274.00, MA30 23,167.33, MA40 23,053.00, MA60 23,102.42. The close of 23,085 holds ONLY MA40 (+32.00) and sits 17.42 below MA60.

⚑ LME: the curve went into contango, and the thirty-five-day draw ended on the same day

  • ⚑ Westmetall official caliber: August 18 cash settlement $3,219.00 (−$53.00, −1.62%), three-month $3,234.00 (−$38.00, −1.16%).
  • ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread is −$15.00 — a CONTANGO of fifteen dollars — from $0.00 on August 17 and +$2.00 on August 14. The curve did not return to backwardation; it inverted the other way.
  • ⚑ Stocks 246,925 mt, UNCHANGED on the day, ENDING thirty-five consecutive daily declines. The series: 254,900 (August 10) → 246,925 (August 17) → 246,925 (August 18).
  • Cash is −$154.00 (−4.57%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00.
  • ⚑ This brief’s own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,265.10, MA10 $3,279.55, MA20 $3,244.31, MA40 $3,190.65, MA60 $3,320.78. Cash at $3,219.00 sits BELOW MA5, MA10, MA20 and MA60, and above MA40 only (+$28.35).
  • ⚑ MA20 was reclaimed territory on August 17 (cash +$29.47 over it) and is LOST on August 18 (−$25.31). The LME caliber is likewise verified: recomputing the August 17 window reproduces the published MA5 of $3,295.90 and MA10 of $3,284.75 exactly.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics carries $3,217.00 (−$42.45, −1.30%), month +2.53%, year +25.41%; a separate caliber prints $3,237 (−0.69%). TE’s $3,217.00 is the closest agreement with Westmetall in several weeks but is still not reconciled here.
  • ⊘ The secondary warrant figures in circulation — cancelled warrants −11.32% to 11,750 mt against live warrants steady at 244,650 mt — sum to 256,400 mt, which is the AUGUST 7 stock figure, not August 18’s. They are an early-August caliber and are labelled as such rather than carried as current.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The test resolves. Yesterday this brief wrote: ‘the level to watch is not the high — it is whether 24,015.50 holds as support on the first pullback.’ It did not hold, and it failed in the worst available manner: the contract opened at its high of the day and declined from the first tick, so there was no attempt on the upside that failed, only distribution (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Price position: 23,955 sits inside the 675 range framed by the August 12 cycle high of 24,470 and the August 14 low of 23,795, some 160 off the low — roughly the 23.7th percentile, down from about 36% on August 17 (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Retracement: the August 13–14 decline was 400. Monday recovered 150 (37.5%); Tuesday gave back 80, leaving a net recovery of 70, or 17.5% (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Intra-complex ranking: close-over-close, SHFE aluminium −0.33% outperformed alumina −0.59% and cast alloy −0.62%, and materially outperformed LME cash at −1.62%. The metal was the most resilient leg of its own complex on the way down (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Cross-market derivation: 23,955 / $3,219.00 = 7.442, against 24,035 / $3,272 = 7.346 on August 17 and 7.354 on August 14. That is a one-day jump of roughly 0.096, the largest single-day move in that relationship this cycle. The domestic market absorbed only about a fifth of the offshore decline — which is either genuine domestic resilience or a widening import loss that will eventually be arbitraged. This brief does not resolve which (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • ⚑ Open-interest derivation: whole-product open interest fell 4,304, and the figure reconciles exactly once AL2608’s expired 14,875 lots are removed from August 17’s 645,941 (645,941 − 14,875 = 631,066; 631,066 − 4,304 = 626,762). A falling price alongside falling total open interest looks like longs liquidating rather than fresh shorts being laid on (this is a derivation and interpretation).

⚑ Spot: the basis flip also lasted exactly one session

  • ⊘ Caliber statement: SMM’s own A00 quotation for August 18 was not retrievable at writing (login required). What follows is the Changjiang non-ferrous / metal.com caliber.
  • ⚑ A00 aluminium ingot (August 18): 23,900 yuan/mt, −170 (−0.71%).
  • ⚑ Basis: a discount of 35 against AL2609’s close of 23,935 and 55 against AL2610’s 23,955. On August 17 it was +55/+35 — a swing of −90 and −90 in one session.
  • ⚑ The A00 sequence: 24,120 (August 13) → 23,870 (August 14) → 24,070 (August 17) → 23,900 (August 18).
  • East China transactions: a discount of 40 to par against the 09 contract.
  • ⊘ Central China (carried, August 17 caliber): a discount of 90–110 against the 09 contract. Near-month spread in contango of 20–50 yuan/mt (carried).

⚑ Alumina: through the bottom of the full-cost band

  • ⊘ Alumina spot index (August 18, aggregator caliber): 2,666.0 yuan/mt, −0.86%. SMM’s own index page was not retrievable at writing; the last confirmed SMM print is 2,689.77 on August 14.
  • ⚑ Against August’s national weighted-average full cost of 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt, 2,666.0 sits 34 yuan BELOW the bottom of the band. Against the cash-cost band of 2,530–2,650, it sits only 16 yuan above the top (this is a derivation).
  • Australian FOB $349/mt (+$1); a cargo traded at $374 CFR Malaysia (carried).
  • ⊘ A late-July SMM analysis put the industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt with port alumina inventories at 940,000 mt and nearly 3 million mt of new south-China capacity pending. That cost figure conflicts with the August 2,700–2,820 band and is not reconciled.

Secondary aluminium and alloy

  • ADC12: 24,200 yuan/mt (carried); the import loss exceeds 1,000 yuan/mt.
  • ⚑ The theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium widens to 1,115 yuan/mt (24,200 against 23,085), from 865 on the August 14 caliber — the futures fell and the spot did not follow (this is a derivation).
  • Total registered cast aluminium alloy warrants: 18,311 mt (carried).
  • A00-to-Foshan-mixed-aluminium-extrusion-scrap spread: approximately 2,250 yuan/mt (carried).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Yesterday this brief called the 55 premium ‘the cleanest physical evidence in this edition’ and said its persistence would decide the direction of the spot column. It persisted for one session. The column moves back from ‘following up with East China leading’ to ‘following down with the basis at a discount’ (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ One mechanical reading deserves isolating: A00 fell 170 while AL2610 fell only 80. The spot fell HARDER than the futures, which is the exact inverse of August 17’s ‘spot outran the contract’ and says the physical leg loosened faster than the paper leg in this pullback (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • ⚑ Alumina through the bottom of the full-cost band constrains alumina’s own downside, but for primary aluminium it is unambiguously bearish: the cost channel is no longer merely failing to follow the metal higher — it is actively subtracting (this is interpretation).

⚑ The LME curve and the warrants: three sessions without corroboration

  • ⚑ +$2.00 on August 14 → $0.00 on August 17 → −$15.00 on August 18. The backwardation did not widen; it inverted into contango.
  • ⚑ Stocks unchanged at 246,925 mt on the same day, ending thirty-five consecutive declines. Both pillars flattened in one session.
  • ⊘ Warrant-concentration reporting (carried, secondary sources only): one participant holding 80–90% of warranted aluminium stocks and above 90% including the cash date; Russian brands approximately 95% of available metal; off-warrant stocks 85,645 mt; Indian registered stocks 12,450 mt; one short position of 155,000–225,000 mt; an Asian Q2 physical premium of $350–353/mt; and a delivery test named for August 19 — today.

3 · Inventory

⚑ The high-frequency series turned to a build; the social print has not been updated

  • ⚑ SMM three-region daily ingot inventory (August 18): Guangdong 173,000 mt, Wuxi 323,000 mt, Gongyi 211,000 mt — total 707,000 mt, +1,000 mt on the previous period (706,000).
  • SMM social inventory: unchanged at the Monday August 17 print of 886,000 mt, with the next print due Thursday August 20. Monday series 917,000 → 886,000; Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000.
  • From the year’s high near 1.47 million mt in early May, cumulative destocking exceeds 584,000 mt (this is a derivation, based on the August 17 print).
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged, ending thirty-five consecutive daily declines.
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory, carried: 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w — ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt; the August 6 print in that series was 24,000 mt, −200 w/w.
  • Billet inventory, August 10 caliber, carried: +4,000 w/w, though both social and in-factory stocks remain low versus recent years.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The structure of the inventory column has changed. Three of its four series are now flat or building — LME unchanged, the three-region daily +1,000 mt, cast alloy ingots +1,500 mt, billet +4,000 mt. The only series still drawing is the social ingot print, and its most recent reading is two days old (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Yesterday this brief noted that destocking was ‘intact and decelerating’ (−35,000 over the Thursday week against −12,000 into Monday). The three-region turn provides the first same-direction high-frequency evidence for that deceleration — but the calibers differ and it cannot be extrapolated directly to Thursday’s social print (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Thursday’s social print (August 20) is the only domestic datum this week capable of refuting the structural change above. If it continues to draw, the three flat series should be read as caliber differences. If it turns to a build, the August 13–17 destocking should be re-read as the tail of this cycle rather than its continuation (this is interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The Fed: hike odds eased, and the unstable pair began to resolve

  • ⚑ Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 18 at 20:35 EDT: for the September 16 FOMC, hold at 3.50–3.75% 66.7%, HIKE to 3.75–4.00% 33.3%, cut 0%; implied off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.330.
  • ⚑ That 33.3% is BELOW the 35.3% carried yesterday — the direction has turned from higher to lower.
  • October 28: hold 52.9%, one hike 40.2%, two hikes 6.9% (futures 96.280). December 9: 3.50–3.75% 34.6%, 3.75–4.00% 44.6%, 4.00–4.25% 18.4%, 4.25–4.50% 2.4% (futures 96.170) — implying roughly 65.4% odds of at least one hike by December (this is a derivation).
  • The target range is 3.50–3.75%, left unchanged at the July 29 meeting.
  • ⚑ THE JULY 28–29 FOMC MINUTES ARE RELEASED TODAY, WEDNESDAY AUGUST 19, AT 14:00 ET — the meeting that held with three hawkish dissents.
  • ⚑ Timing correction: the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs AUGUST 27–29, not this week. Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address is Friday August 28, on ‘Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy’.

The dollar and energy

  • The dollar index at 99.40, the lowest since June 2026; −1.52% over four weeks and +1.27% over twelve months. ⊘ A separate caliber describes it around 99.5 in a third consecutive declining session; both are listed and not reconciled.
  • ⚑ Brent: $91.675/bbl, +$0.66 (+0.72%); month +2.75%, year +37.16%; Q3 forecast $90.41 — a fourth consecutive higher session.
  • ⚑ The drivers: the US and Iran show little sign of an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; the US naval blockade continues; eight vessel attacks in the Strait are reported this month; US crude inventories fell 328,000 barrels.
  • The fee-free Hormuz transit window under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum lapsed around August 16; Hegseth has called the blockade indefinite; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels since July 13 (carried).

China policy and data

  • ⚑ The August LPR is announced tomorrow, August 20. The one-year rate stands at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%, both at record lows.
  • July activity data, carried and confirmed: industrial output +4.5% (consensus 4.8%); retail sales +0.6% (poll 1.5%); January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% (poll −6.0%, first half −5.7%); surveyed urban unemployment 5.2%; new-home prices −0.1% m/m and −3.2% y/y.
  • July financial data, carried: M2 +7.7%; outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; TSF stock +7.4%; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion yuan against 12.87 trillion a year earlier.
  • US data, carried: July retail sales −0.6% m/m; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0; July producer prices unchanged.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ Bullish for aluminium: September hike odds eased from 35.3% to 33.3%; Brent posted a fourth consecutive higher session at $91.675; the dollar holds its lowest level since June, −1.52% over four weeks.
  • ⚑ Bearish for aluminium: the dollar’s decline did not extend; today’s FOMC minutes come from a meeting that held with three hawkish dissents, a document with more capacity to raise hike odds than to lower them (this is interpretation); and nothing new has revised China’s weak July lines.
  • ⚑ The unstable pair isolated yesterday has begun to resolve, and in aluminium’s favour: hike odds moved toward the currency rather than the currency toward the odds. But that resolution is one session old and worth 2.0 percentage points — not enough to change the column’s character (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Net reading: the macro column stays neutral-with-a-bearish-tilt, marginally improved on yesterday but not turned (this is interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Overseas supply: a new item not previously carried — EGA has settled its Guinea bauxite dispute

  • ⚑ ⊘ On an August 4 report: EGA has settled the Guinea bauxite dispute — a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to state-owned Nimba Mining, plus renewal of supply contracts with Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG).
  • ⚑ The effect: the settlement restores feedstock security for EGA’s Al Taweelah ALUMINA REFINERY in the UAE. The dispute began in October 2024 when Guinean customs halted shipments and escalated in 2025 to a full licence revocation reassigning the rights to Nimba Mining.
  • ⚑ ⊘ But the same report names two unresolved obstacles: Hormuz disruption still prevents bauxite delivery, and the Al Taweelah SMELTER, damaged by the March 28 missile strike, ‘could take a year to resume’.
  • ⚑ ⊘ That ‘could take a year’ conflicts with this brief’s carried line of 18% of capacity with full capacity expected in Q1 2027. Listed and not reconciled.
  • ⚑ ⊘ A separate secondary estimate puts combined EGA and Alba disruption at 3–3.5 million mt of 2026 supply, approximately 5% of global output.
  • Other overseas items, carried: Alunorte ramping back to full capacity (ANP approval for gas self-import, temporary CELBA terminal access; total lost output 100,000–120,000 mt; Q3 impact unchanged at USD 75–100 million); Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support over ten years from 2029; Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end) pending restart.

Domestic supply and cost (carried)

  • July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m on a 31-day caliber; month-end existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt, flat m/m.
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m.
  • Passive cuts in southwest China continue.
  • ⚑ Cost reading updated: at ⊘ the August 18 alumina index of 2,666.0, the industry sits 34 yuan BELOW the bottom of August’s 2,700–2,820 full-cost band and 16 yuan above the top of the 2,530–2,650 cash-cost band. The position has moved from ‘below full cost, above cash cost’ to materially closer to the cash-cost line (this is a derivation).
  • Guinea first-half bauxite exports a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y; refinery bauxite stocks near 96 days.

Downstream demand (carried, no new print)

  • CPCA July: passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y; internal-combustion retail 510,000 units, −41%; NEV retail 951,000 units, −3.9% with penetration 65.1%; NEV exports 540,000 units, +147.8%.
  • SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting: foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, sheet and strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary aluminium alloy 43.9.
  • Billet: July operating rate 58.3%, a year-to-date high, with an August forecast of approximately 56.9%; processing fees already below the industry average production cost.
  • The domestic demand column remains simultaneously weak in credit, processing, property, autos and retail sales, with fixed-asset investment the fastest-deteriorating (carried).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The one uncontested supply-side bullish item is still July casting-ingot output at −15.1% y/y: it explains both the social destocking and the spot tightness and depends on no overseas event. Its standing RISES this edition, because every other pillar has weakened around it (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The overseas-disruption column takes another hit, but in a complicated direction: EGA’s Guinea settlement is bearish (feedstock restored) while ‘the smelter could take a year’ is bullish (restart deferred). The two act on different links in the chain and cannot be netted against each other, so this brief lists them separately rather than combining them (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Alumina has fallen through the bottom of the full-cost band while alumina open interest built sharply and its volume exceeded aluminium’s. The flow is pricing continued cost DECLINE, not cost support for the metal (this is interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⊘ SMM’s August 18 spot midday commentary and sentiment indices were not retrievable at writing

  • ⚑ East China transactions (August 18, Changjiang caliber): a discount of 40 to par against the 09 contract.
  • ⊘ Central China transactions, the near-month spread and the sentiment indices are all carried at the August 17 caliber; there is no new print this edition.

Sentiment indices (SMM, August 17, carried)

  • East China: shipment sentiment index 3.15 (+0.01 w/w); procurement sentiment index 3.40 (+0.06 w/w).
  • Central China: shipment sentiment index 3.09 (unchanged w/w); procurement sentiment index 2.90 (−0.07 w/w).
  • ⊘ Internal tension (carried): the East China procurement index rose 0.06 while the same article’s narrative says procurement sentiment fell. Both listed, not reconciled.

Regional structure

  • ⚑ East China quotations moved from August 17’s ‘10 discount to 10 premium’ to ‘40 discount to par’ — the whole range shifted down by roughly 20–30 yuan/mt (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ Central China is carried at a 90–110 discount. If that value is unchanged, the East–Central gap narrows to roughly 50–110 yuan/mt (this is a derivation resting on a carried value).

Interpretation: sentiment reading

  • Shipment willingness: neutral (carried from August 17: East China 3.15, Central China 3.09).
  • Purchasing willingness: firmer in East China and softer in Central China on the carried caliber — but the basis flipping from premium to discount on August 18 says Monday’s improvement in procurement did not survive into a second session (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Composite reading: the spot column moves back from ‘following up with East China leading’ to ‘following down harder than the futures’. A00 falling 170 against AL2610’s 80 is the most direct evidence of physical softening in this edition (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ SMM’s A00 quotation around 11:00 today serves two purposes: it tests whether the 35 discount widens, and it calibrates the gap between the Changjiang caliber used here and SMM’s own, so the next edition can return to a single caliber (this is interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ September hike odds eased from 35.3% to 33.3%; cut odds remain 0%, but the hike pricing is weakening rather than building.
  • ⚑ The unstable pair isolated yesterday — rising hike odds against a falling dollar — resolved in aluminium’s favour in its first session.
  • ⚑ Brent at $91.675 for a fourth consecutive rising session, +$0.66 (+0.72%), with no US–Iran progress and eight Hormuz vessel attacks reported this month.
  • ⚑ The dollar index at 99.40 holds its lowest level since June, −1.52% over four weeks.
  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium was the most resilient leg of its own complex: −0.33% against alumina −0.59% and cast alloy −0.62%, and far better than LME cash at −1.62%.
  • ⚑ The cross-market ratio rose from 7.346 to 7.442 — the domestic market absorbed only about a fifth of the offshore decline (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The August 14 low of 23,795 was NOT broken — Tuesday’s low of 23,825 came within 30 points and held. The floor is intact.
  • ⚑ Whole-product open interest fell 4,304 alongside a falling price, a shape closer to longs liquidating than to fresh shorts (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ ⊘ EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter ‘could take a year to resume’, which is a later restart than the Q1 2027 full capacity this brief has carried.
  • ⚑ ⊘ The alumina index at 2,666.0 has fallen through the bottom of the full-cost band and is approaching the top of the cash-cost band, which constrains further downside in the cost channel (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ If the warrant-concentration reporting is accurate (one participant at 80–90%, a short of 155,000–225,000 mt), today’s August 19 delivery still carries physical-squeeze risk.
  • ⊘ Asian Q2 physical premium at $350–353/mt, described as an eleven-year high.
  • July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, directly reducing warehouse-eligible units — still the only uncontested supply-side bullish item.
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%, continuing to squeeze ingot casting.
  • Billet social and in-factory inventories both low versus recent years; passive cuts in southwest China continue; existing capacity at 46.29 million mt is flat m/m, close to the ceiling.
  • August imported-bauxite shipments are expected to shrink in the rainy season.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ The MA10 reclaim failed on its first retest: AL2610 closed 23,955, 75.00 below the recomputed MA10 of 24,030.00 and 95.00 below MA5 at 24,050.00.
  • ⚑ It failed in the worst available manner: the open of 24,040 was also the high, and the session declined from the first tick with no failed upside attempt (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ MA10 rose against the price (24,015.50 → 24,030.00), so a reclaim now costs 75.00 rather than the 19.50 surrendered.
  • ⚑ The basis flipped from a 55 premium back to a 35 discount, a −90 swing; the premium lasted exactly one session.
  • ⚑ ⊘ A00 fell 170 to 23,900, a decline (−0.71%) LARGER than AL2610’s −0.33% — the physical leg loosened faster than the paper leg.
  • ⚑ The LME curve went from $0.00 to a −$15.00 CONTANGO: the market now pays to defer holding metal.
  • ⚑ LME stocks printed 246,925 mt unchanged, ending thirty-five consecutive daily declines — both LME pillars flattened in one session.
  • ⚑ LME cash −$53.00 (−1.62%), losing MA20 at $3,244.31, and −$154.00 (−4.57%) from the August 11 high.
  • ⚑ That flattening occurred on the EVE of the August 19 delivery test this brief named as the week’s largest event risk — the curve has now declined to corroborate the warrant story for three consecutive sessions (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ SMM’s three-region daily ingot inventory turned to a build, +1,000 mt to 707,000 mt.
  • ⚑ Three of the inventory column’s four series are now flat or building (LME unchanged, three-region +1,000, cast alloy +1,500, billet +4,000); the only one still drawing is a social print that is two days old.
  • ⚑ Alumina AO2610 closed 2,681, below ALL SIX of its moving averages (MA5/MA10/MA20/MA30/MA40/MA60).
  • ⚑ ⊘ The alumina index at 2,666.0 (−0.86%) turns the cost channel from ‘not following’ to ‘actively subtracting’ (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Alumina open interest +23,198 and volume 307,533 — exceeding aluminium’s 274,920 — while aluminium’s own open interest fell 4,304. Money moved from the metal to the raw material, on the short side (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Cast alloy AD2610 closed 23,085 (−145, −0.62%), holding only MA40 and losing MA60.
  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium volume fell from 323,919 to 274,920 (−15.1%) — participation shrank into the decline (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ ⊘ EGA settled its Guinea dispute, restoring feedstock security for the Al Taweelah alumina refinery; a separate secondary caliber puts combined EGA/Alba disruption at 3–3.5 million mt.
  • ⚑ Today’s FOMC minutes come from a meeting that held with three hawkish dissents, with more capacity to raise the 33.3% hike probability than to lower it (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The dollar’s three-session decline did not extend; the 99.40 and ~99.5 calibers coexist and the direction has turned flat (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The price percentile fell from about 36% on August 17 to about 23.7%, and the retracement of the August 13–14 decline fell from 37.5% to 17.5% (these are derivations).
  • China’s July industrial output +4.5%, retail sales +0.6% and January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% all missed, with FAI steepening (carried).
  • July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y; aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; the billet operating rate is forecast down to 56.9% in August (carried).
  • China’s July outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion against 12.87 trillion a year earlier (carried).
  • Alunorte ramping back to full, Tomago rescued, Slovalco and Missouri pending — the overseas-disruption leg continues to be dismantled (carried).
  • ⊘ SMM’s bands are unchanged at 23,600–24,450 and $3,180–3,330 — neither has been raised.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Monday’s three passes were handed back one by one on Tuesday — the MA10 reclaim failed on its first retest (23,955 against 24,030.00, with the open also the high of the day), the 55 premium flipped back to a 35 discount, and the three-region daily inventory turned to a build — while the LME delivered the edition’s most structurally significant change, with cash-to-three-month going from $0.00 to a −$15.00 contango and stocks printing unchanged to end thirty-five consecutive draws, all of it on the eve of the very August 19 delivery test this brief had flagged; so until the August 14 low of 23,795 — the one technical fact still intact — is tested, prices are more likely to consolidate weakly than to recover, and what remains of the bull case has narrowed to a two-day-old social inventory print, a casting-ingot statistic, and a warrant story the forward curve has now declined to confirm three sessions running.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ The floor at 23,795. This is the only technical fact still intact: Tuesday’s low of 23,825 came within 30 points of it. Holding keeps the pullback inside a high-level range; breaking it converts the structure since August 13 from ‘correction’ to ‘trend change’, with the downside sequence 23,731.75 (MA20) → 23,645–23,636.58 (the MA60 zone) → 23,600 (SMM’s band floor) → 23,526.67 (MA30). Upside sequence: 24,015 → 24,030.00 (MA10, lost) → 24,040 → 24,050.00 (MA5) → 24,135 → 24,285.
  • ⚑ The August 18 night session print, unobserved in this edition. What matters is whether it recovered above 24,030.00, and whether it caught down to the LME after cash fell 1.62% — Tuesday’s day session absorbed only about a fifth of the offshore decline, and that gap is usually calibrated overnight (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Today’s LME delivery test (August 19) and the shape of the curve. The point is not whether a squeeze occurs but whether the −$15.00 contango narrows: if the curve is still in contango once the delivery date has passed, the warrant-concentration thesis has been rejected in pricing terms; if the curve snaps back into backwardation, the thesis gets its first direct evidence (⊘ this rests on secondary sources and should be checked against the LME’s own daily position reports). Watch also whether stocks resume drawing — one unchanged day is not a trend, two is.
  • ⚑ SMM’s A00 quotation around 11:00 today, for two reasons: whether the 35 discount widens further, and to calibrate the gap between the Changjiang caliber used in this edition and SMM’s own, so the next edition can return to a single caliber (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Tomorrow (August 20) is a double-data day: SMM’s Thursday social inventory print and China’s August LPR. The social print is the only domestic datum capable of refuting ‘the inventory structure has turned’. If the LPR holds at 3.0% and 3.5%, the monetary side offers no new offset to fixed-asset investment at −6.7% (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The July 28–29 FOMC minutes at 14:00 ET today. That meeting held with three hawkish dissents, and how the minutes characterise the dissenters’ reasoning can reprice the 33.3% hike probability in either direction. Watch alongside it whether the dollar resumes its decline from 99.40 (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether alumina stabilises near its cost line. AO2610 has lost all six averages and ⊘ the spot index at 2,666.0 is 34 below the full-cost floor and 16 above the cash-cost ceiling. Stabilising here moves the cost channel from ‘actively subtracting’ to neutral; breaking lower requires a fresh assessment of how much cost support primary aluminium actually has (this is interpretation). Watch also whether alumina’s +23,198 open-interest build continues.
  • ⚑ Whether Brent holds $91 and posts a fifth consecutive higher session; whether Hormuz vessel attacks keep accumulating; and how quickly actual bauxite shipments recover following EGA’s Guinea settlement.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, or data not retrievable at the time of writing.