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The 23,795 floor breaks and SHFE closes at 23,675, its lowest since August 3. The dollar breaks 99 as Iran fires missiles at the UAE.23,795 支撑失守,沪铝收于 23,675,为 8 月 3 日以来最低;美元跌破 99,伊朗向阿联酋发射导弹。

Thursday, August 20, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Thursday August 20 (Asia). ⊘ THE AUGUST 19 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 19 to 01:00 August 20) IS CARRIED ON THE QUOTATION-PAGE CALIBER ONLY: SMM had not published its Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary at writing, and hq.smm.cn shows the SHFE aluminium main continuous at 23,685, −55 (−0.23%) referenced to the August 19 settlement of 23,740 — ten points above the August 19 day close of 23,675. ⚑ SMM's OWN A00 QUOTATION IS RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION, which resolves the caliber problem the prior two editions carried. NEW PRINTS CONFIRMED THIS EDITION. FIRST, SHFE, taken from the exchange's own August 19 daily file: AL2610, main with open interest 269,032 (+13,290) — open 23,895, high 23,900, low 23,620, close 23,675, settlement 23,740, previous settlement 23,930; −255 on the previous settlement (−1.07%), −190 settlement-over-settlement (−0.79%), and −280 (−1.17%) close-over-close against August 18's 23,955; volume 180,862. ⚑ THE LOW OF 23,620 IS 175 BELOW THE AUGUST 14 LOW OF 23,795 — the floor this brief named as the discriminating level is broken, not tested. AL2609: open 23,820, high 23,870, low 23,610, close 23,650, settlement 23,720, previous settlement 23,915; −265 on the previous settlement, −285 (−1.19%) close-over-close; volume 120,997, open interest 144,364 (−30,840). AL2611 close 23,670, open interest 83,310 (+7,350); AL2612 close 23,640, open interest 58,983 (+2,602). Whole-product aluminium volume 367,560 (from 274,920, +33.7%), open interest 622,659 (−4,103). ⚑ THE MAIN CONTRACT HAS DEFINITIVELY ROLLED: AL2610's 269,032 now exceeds AL2609's 144,364 by 124,668, and the 09's 30,840-lot decline against 13,290 added to the 10 and 7,350 to the 11 makes the whole-product fall a ROLL rather than liquidation, on volume that rose a third (derivation). ALUMINA, same file: AO2610 main with open interest 299,639 (+7,316) — open 2,671, high 2,685, low 2,664, close 2,668, settlement 2,672, previous settlement 2,678; −10 on the previous settlement, −13 (−0.49%) close-over-close; volume 131,169. AO2609 close 2,667, settlement 2,674, open interest 87,919 (−3,094). Whole-product alumina volume 173,376 (from 307,533, −43.6%), open interest 567,033 (+6,911). ⚑ THE FLOW REVERSED COMPLETELY: aluminium's volume EXCEEDED alumina's by 2.12 times, having been beaten by it on August 18 (derivation). CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY, same file: AD2610 main with open interest 18,352 (−509) — open 23,025, high 23,040, low 22,875, close 22,940, settlement 22,950, previous settlement 23,070; −130 on the previous settlement, −145 (−0.63%) close-over-close; volume 9,785. AD2609 close 22,895, settlement 22,915, open interest 4,397 (−250). Whole-product volume 14,435, open interest 24,303 (−610). MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, recomputed from SHFE's own daily files using the highest-open-interest contract's close, 84 trading sessions to August 19. ⚑ THE CALIBER IS RE-VERIFIED THIS EDITION: recomputing the August 18 window from the raw exchange files reproduces the previously published aluminium MA5 of 24,050.00, MA10 of 24,030.00 and MA20 of 23,731.75 EXACTLY. ⊘ The same recomputation gives MA30 23,531.17 against the published 23,526.67, MA40 23,358.50 against 23,360.13 and MA60 23,636.92 against 23,636.58 — differences of 4.50, 1.63 and 0.34 arising from one or more main-contract selections deeper in the history; they are listed and NOT reconciled, and the short averages that carry the argument are exact. The underlying closes are: August 3 23,640, August 4 23,810, August 5 23,785, August 6 23,810, August 7 24,040, August 10 24,165, August 11 24,250, August 12 24,285, August 13 24,090, August 14 23,885, August 17 24,035, August 18 23,955, August 19 23,675. SHFE aluminium MA5 23,928.00, MA10 24,019.00, MA20 23,756.00, MA30 23,551.17, MA40 23,364.00, MA60 23,622.00 — the close of 23,675 is 253.00 below MA5, 344.00 below MA10 and 81.00 BELOW MA20, while holding +123.83 over MA30, +311.00 over MA40 and only +53.00 over MA60. ⚑ THE DAY'S LOW OF 23,620 IS 2.00 BELOW MA60 AT 23,622.00 — the sixty-day average was pierced intraday and recovered on the close (derivation). ⚑ The twenty-session window IS RECOMPUTED THIS EDITION, which the prior edition declined to do: it now runs July 23 to August 19 with a close range of 23,195 (July 27) to 24,285 (August 12), placing 23,675 at the 44.0th percentile. The sixty-session window runs May 27 to August 19 with a close range of 22,370 (July 1) to 24,825 (June 2), placing the close at the 53.2nd percentile. ⚑ 23,675 IS THE LOWEST MAIN-CONTRACT CLOSE SINCE AUGUST 3'S 23,640 — eleven sessions — and retraces 610 of the 645-point August 3-to-August 12 advance, or 94.6% (derivation). Alumina MA5 2,684.40, MA10 2,695.10, MA20 2,681.75, MA30 2,688.40, MA40 2,706.50, MA60 2,759.27 — the close of 2,668 is BELOW ALL SIX for a second consecutive session. Cast alloy MA5 23,157.00, MA10 23,351.00, MA20 23,271.25, MA30 23,168.33, MA40 23,047.00, MA60 23,098.08 — the close of 22,940 is now BELOW ALL SIX, having lost MA40 (its last remaining average) by 107.00. SECOND, LME (Westmetall official, new row): August 19 cash settlement $3,191.50 (−$27.50, −0.85%), three-month $3,212.00 (−$22.00, −0.68%). ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread is −$20.50 — the contango WIDENED from −$15.00 on August 18, against $0.00 on August 17 and +$2.00 on August 14. ⚑ Stocks 246,925 mt, UNCHANGED FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION; the series ran 254,900 (August 10) → 248,300 (August 14) → 246,925 (August 17, 18 and 19). Cash is −$181.50 (−5.38%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00. This brief's own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,241.90, MA10 $3,275.80, MA20 $3,243.62, MA40 $3,191.69, MA60 $3,311.67 — cash at $3,191.50 now sits BELOW EVERY ONE, having lost MA40 by $0.19. ⚑ The LME caliber is verified EXACTLY this edition: recomputing the August 18 window reproduces the published MA5 $3,265.10, MA10 $3,279.55, MA20 $3,244.30 (published 3,244.31), MA40 $3,190.65 and MA60 $3,320.78 to the cent. ⊘ TradingEconomics carries aluminium at $3,231.95, +$14.95 (+0.46%), month +3.01%, year +25.14% on an August 19 stamp — a POSITIVE session against Westmetall's −0.85%, the widest directional disagreement between the two calibers in this cycle; both are listed and NOT reconciled. THIRD, SPOT: ⚑ SMM's own quotation page is retrievable this edition. A00 aluminium ingot, August 19: 23,670 yuan/mt (range 23,650–23,690), −230 (−0.96%). Basis +20 PREMIUM against AL2609's close of 23,650 and −5 against AL2610's 23,675 — from a −35/−55 discount on the August 18 Changjiang caliber. ⚑ CALIBER WARNING: the August 18 figure was Changjiang/metal.com and the August 19 figure is SMM/Shanghai, so the +55 basis swing is caliber-crossed and should be read as direction, not magnitude (derivation). Regional quotations, August 19: Foshan 23,780 (range 23,760–23,800), Hangzhou 23,700, Wuxi 23,640, Zhongyuan 23,590. ⚑ The Foshan-to-Zhongyuan spread is 190 yuan/mt, with Foshan 110 above Shanghai and Central China 80 below it (derivation). ⊘ SMM's August 19 spot midday commentary and its sentiment indices were not retrievable at writing; the August 17 indices are carried: East China shipment 3.15 (+0.01 w/w) and procurement 3.40 (+0.06 w/w); Central China shipment 3.09 (unchanged) and procurement 2.90 (−0.07 w/w); near-month spread in contango of 20–50 yuan/mt. FOURTH, INVENTORY: ⚑ SMM'S THURSDAY SOCIAL INVENTORY PRINT IS DUE TODAY, AUGUST 20, and had not published at writing; the series stands at the Monday August 17 print of 886,000 mt. Monday series 917,000 → 886,000; Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000. ⊘ SMM's three-region daily ingot inventory for August 19 was not retrievable at writing; the August 18 print is carried at 707,000 mt (Guangdong 173,000, Wuxi 323,000, Gongyi 211,000), +1,000 mt. LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged for a second day. ⚑ NEW ITEMS THIS EDITION: Japan's three major ports held 201,000 mt at end-July, described as the LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2010; and aluminium billet inventory on August 19 reads Guangdong 67,500 mt and Wuxi 26,000 mt for a two-region total of 93,500 mt. Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w, carried — ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt. FIFTH, MACRO — ⚑ THE JULY 28–29 FOMC MINUTES WERE RELEASED AUGUST 19 AT 14:00 ET AND WERE HAWKISH. The July vote was 9–3 to hold at 3.50–3.75%, with Cleveland's Beth M. Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie K. Logan each preferring a quarter-point increase. The minutes record participants saying that 'policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline', and that some officials believed current financial conditions might not be tight enough to return inflation to 2%. ⊘ Bloomberg reports that Kansas City's Jeffrey R. Schmid and St. Louis's Alberto G. Musalem, neither voting in July, subsequently indicated they would have backed an increase. ⚑ THE MARKET MOVED THE OTHER WAY. Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 19 at 20:35 EDT — after the minutes — prices the September 16 FOMC at 69.4% hold and 30.6% HIKE to 3.75–4.00%, with a 0% chance of a cut, off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.335. That 30.6% is BELOW the 33.3% carried yesterday and the 35.3% of August 17. October 28: hold 56.6%, one hike 37.7%, two hikes 5.6%, off futures at 96.285 (from 52.9/40.2/6.9). December 9: 3.50–3.75% 35.7%, 3.75–4.00% 44.7%, 4.00–4.25% 17.5%, 4.25–4.50% 2.1%, off futures at 96.175 — implying approximately 64.3% odds of at least one hike by December, from 65.4% (derivation). Jackson Hole runs AUGUST 27–29, with Chair Warsh's first address as Chair on Friday August 28. DOLLAR: ⚑ the index BROKE BELOW 99 to 98.853 on August 20, +0.07% on the session, −2.29% over four weeks and +0.24% over twelve months — from the 99.40 carried on August 18. ENERGY: Brent $91.93, +$0.31 (+0.34%), month +1.01%, year +35.85% — a FIFTH consecutive higher session and more than +3% on the week. ⚑ GEOPOLITICS, NEW AND MATERIAL: the UAE Defence Ministry said on August 18 that Iran fired TWO BALLISTIC MISSILES toward the Gulf state, with assessments indicating the missiles targeted maritime traffic; on August 19 the UAE announced it had SUSPENDED ALL TRADE, COMMERCIAL EXCHANGE AND FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS WITH IRAN until further notice. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei categorically rejected the claim that Iran launched a missile toward the UAE. Carried: the fee-free Hormuz transit window under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum lapsed around August 16; Hegseth has called the naval blockade indefinite; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels since July 13. CHINA POLICY: ⚑ the August LPR is announced TODAY, August 20, and had NOT been published at writing; the one-year rate stands at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%, both at record lows and unchanged for fourteen consecutive months as of July, with consensus expecting no change. SIXTH, ALUMINA SPOT AND COST — ⚑ A CALIBER CORRECTION: SMM's OWN alumina index reads 2,683.43 yuan/mt on August 19, −5.97 on the day, which places the SMM series at 2,689.77 (August 14) → 2,689.40 (August 18) → 2,683.43 (August 19). ⚑ THAT IS A MATERIALLY SMALLER DECLINE THAN THE 2,666.0 AGGREGATOR FIGURE CARRIED IN THE PRIOR EDITION, and this brief corrects to the SMM caliber. Against August's national weighted-average full cost of 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt, 2,683.43 sits 16.57 yuan below the floor rather than 34; against the cash-cost band of 2,530–2,650 it sits 33.43 above the top rather than 16 (derivation). Australian FOB $349 (+$1), a cargo at $374 CFR Malaysia, carried. ⊘ A late-July SMM analysis put the industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt with port alumina inventories at 940,000 mt and nearly 3 million mt of new south-China capacity pending; that cost figure conflicts with the August 2,700–2,820 band and is not reconciled. SEVENTH, OVERSEAS SUPPLY, CARRIED: EGA has settled its Guinea bauxite dispute — a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to state-owned Nimba Mining plus renewal of CBG supply contracts, allowing CBG to resume shipments to EGA's UAE operations; ⊘ the same reporting says Hormuz disruption still prevents delivery and that the Al Taweelah SMELTER, damaged on March 28, 'could take a year to resume', which sits against this brief's carried line of 18% of capacity with full capacity expected in Q1 2027 and is not reconciled. ⊘ A separate secondary estimate puts combined EGA and Alba disruption at 3–3.5 million mt of 2026 supply, approximately 5% of global output, and a further secondary caliber puts the Middle East at roughly 9% of global smelting capacity. Alunorte ramping back to full capacity, total lost output 100,000–120,000 mt and Q3 impact USD 75–100 million; Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support over ten years from 2029; Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end) pending restart. ⊘ LME WARRANT STRUCTURE, SECONDARY SOURCES ONLY, CARRIED AND NOW STALE: one participant holding 80–90% of warranted stocks, Russian brands approximately 95% of available metal, off-warrant stocks 85,645 mt, one short position of 155,000–225,000 mt, an Asian Q2 physical premium of $350–353/mt; the circulating cancelled-warrant figures (11,750 mt against 244,650 mt live) sum to 256,400 mt, which is the AUGUST 7 stock figure, and remain an early-August caliber. ⚑ THE AUGUST 19 DELIVERY TEST HAS NOW PASSED WITHOUT A VISIBLE SQUEEZE and with the contango WIDER after it than before. SPOT AND COST, CARRIED: ADC12 24,200 yuan/mt with the import loss above 1,000 yuan/mt — the theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium widens to 1,260 yuan/mt against AD2610's close of 22,940, from 1,115 yesterday (derivation); registered cast alloy warrants 18,311 mt; A00-to-Foshan-mixed-extrusion-scrap spread approximately 2,250 yuan/mt. FUNDAMENTALS, CARRIED: July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m on a 31-day caliber; month-end existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt, flat m/m; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m; July billet operating rate 58.3% with an August forecast of approximately 56.9%; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting (foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, sheet and strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary aluminium alloy 43.9); passive cuts in southwest China continuing; Guinea first-half bauxite exports a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y, with refinery bauxite stocks near 96 days. DOWNSTREAM, CARRIED: CPCA July passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y; internal-combustion retail 510,000 units, −41%; NEV retail 951,000 units, −3.9% with penetration 65.1%; NEV exports 540,000 units, +147.8%. CHINA DATA, CARRIED: July industrial output +4.5% against 4.8% expected; retail sales +0.6% against 1.5%; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% against −6.0%; surveyed urban unemployment 5.2%; new-home prices −0.1% m/m and −3.2% y/y; July M2 +7.7%; outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion yuan against 12.87 trillion a year earlier. US DATA, CARRIED: July retail sales −0.6% m/m; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0; July producer prices unchanged. SMM's forecast bands, carried: SHFE 23,600–24,450; LME $3,180–3,330 — ⚑ the August 19 close of 23,675 sits 75 above the band floor and LME cash at $3,191.50 sits $11.50 above its own.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE 23,795 FLOOR BREAKS AL2610 low 23,620 is 175 THROUGH the Aug 14 low. Close 23,675, −280 (−1.17%). Yesterday's 'only technical fact still working' is gone
⚑ LOWEST CLOSE SINCE AUGUST 3 Eleven sessions. 23,675 against Aug 3's 23,640 — and it retraces 610 of the 645-point August advance, 94.6% (derivation)
⚑ MA20 LOST BY 81.00 23,675 against 23,756.00. Also 253.00 below MA5 (23,928.00) and 344.00 below MA10 (24,019.00)
⚑ THE LOW PIERCED MA60 BY TWO POINTS Low 23,620 against MA60 23,622.00. Recovered to close +53.00 above it. The last average standing, by fifty-three points
⚑ LME LOSES EVERY AVERAGE — BY $0.19 Cash $3,191.50 against MA40 $3,191.69. Now below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA40 AND MA60. Caliber verified to the cent
⚑ CONTANGO WIDENS TO −$20.50 Cash $3,191.50 vs 3M $3,212.00. Was −$15.00 on Aug 18, $0.00 on Aug 17, +$2.00 on Aug 14. The market pays more to defer
⚑ LME STOCKS UNCHANGED A SECOND DAY 246,925 mt on Aug 17, 18 and 19. One unchanged day was not a trend; two is
⚑ THE AUG 19 DELIVERY TEST PASSED QUIETLY No visible squeeze, and the curve is WIDER in contango after it than before. The warrant thesis is not corroborated
⚑ BUT THE SPOT DID NOT CONFIRM THE BREAK A00 23,670, −230 (−0.96%) — a SMALLER fall than AL2609's −285. The basis flips back to a +20 PREMIUM vs the 09
⚑ SMM's OWN CALIBER IS RESTORED The price page is retrievable this edition, ending two editions on the Changjiang caliber. ⚑ The basis swing is caliber-crossed — read direction, not magnitude
⚑ HAWKISH MINUTES, DOVISH PRICING July FOMC 9–3 hold; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan dissent; 'tightening likely necessary if inflation did not decline'. Hike odds FELL anyway
⚑ SEPTEMBER HIKE ODDS 30.6% Investing.com, Aug 19 20:35 EDT — after the minutes. From 33.3% (Aug 18) and 35.3% (Aug 17). Cut odds still 0%
⚑ THE DOLLAR BREAKS 99 — 98.853 From the 99.40 carried on Aug 18. Month −2.29%, year +0.24%. The decline this brief said had stalled has resumed
⚑ IRAN FIRES TWO MISSILES AT THE UAE Aug 18, assessed as targeting maritime traffic. Aug 19: the UAE suspends ALL trade and financial transactions with Iran. Iran denies it
⚑ That lands on the aluminium map itself The UAE is EGA's home; Al Taweelah is already missile-damaged. ⊘ Secondary: the Middle East is ~9% of global smelting capacity
⚑ Brent $91.93, fifth straight higher session +$0.31 (+0.34%), +3% on the week, year +35.85%. Cost-side and risk-side positive
⚑ ALUMINA CALIBER CORRECTION: 2,683.43 SMM's OWN index, −5.97 — not the 2,666.0 aggregator figure carried yesterday. The 'cost collapse' was partly a caliber artefact
Alumina is 16.57 below full cost, not 34 Full-cost band 2,700–2,820; cash-cost 2,530–2,650. It sits 33.43 above the cash-cost ceiling, not 16 (derivation)
⚑ THE FLOWS REVERSED COMPLETELY Aluminium volume +33.7% to 367,560; alumina −43.6% to 173,376. Aluminium beat alumina 2.12×, having lost to it on Aug 18
Alumina still below all six averages AO2610 2,668 (−13, −0.49%) vs MA5 2,684.40, MA10 2,695.10, MA20 2,681.75, MA30 2,688.40, MA40 2,706.50, MA60 2,759.27
⚑ Cast alloy loses its last average AD2610 22,940 (−145, −0.63%) now below ALL SIX, having surrendered MA40 (23,047.00) by 107.00
⚑ THE MAIN CONTRACT HAS ROLLED AL2610 OI 269,032 (+13,290) vs AL2609's 144,364 (−30,840). The whole-product −4,103 is a ROLL, on volume up a third (derivation)
SHFE underperformed the LME this time −1.17% vs LME cash −0.85%. The ratio pulls back 7.442 → 7.418. Tuesday's un-absorbed offshore fall was calibrated, as flagged
⚑ NEW: Japan port stocks 201,000 mt Three major ports at end-July — described as the lowest since April 2010
Billet inventory Aug 19: 93,500 mt Guangdong 67,500 and Wuxi 26,000, two-region caliber
⚑ THE THURSDAY INVENTORY PRINT IS DUE TODAY SMM social ingot inventory, last at Monday's 886,000 mt. The only domestic datum capable of refuting the inventory turn
⚑ CHINA'S AUGUST LPR IS DUE TODAY Not announced at writing. One-year 3.0%, five-year 3.5%, unchanged for fourteen months as of July; consensus expects no change
⊘ TradingEconomics printed a POSITIVE session $3,231.95, +$14.95 (+0.46%) on an Aug 19 stamp, against Westmetall's −0.85%. The widest directional disagreement this cycle; not reconciled
⊘ Night session carried on quote-page caliber hq.smm.cn main continuous 23,685, −55 (−0.23%) on the settlement — ten points ABOVE the day close. Stabilisation, not recovery
⚑ MA caliber re-verified on raw exchange files Recomputing Aug 18 reproduces MA5 24,050.00, MA10 24,030.00, MA20 23,731.75 and all five LME averages exactly. ⊘ MA30/40/60 differ by 4.50/1.63/0.34; not reconciled

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径变更

  • 本期写于 8月20日(周四)上午。
  • ⊘ 8月19日夜盘(8月19日 21:00 至 8月20日 01:00)仅按报价页口径载入:写稿时 SMM 尚未发布《铝晨会纪要》;hq.smm.cn 显示沪铝主连 23,685,较 8月19日结算价 23,740 下跌 55 元(−0.23%),高于 8月19日日盘收盘价 23,675 十点。
  • ⚑ 口径恢复:本期 SMM 自身 A00 报价已可取得,前两期沿用长江有色口径的问题就此解决。
  • ⚑ 口径更正:氧化铝改用 SMM 自身指数 2,683.43 元,替代前期所载的聚合口径 2,666.0 元(详见第二节)。

⚑ 沪铝:23,795 地板破位(数据取自上期所自身日行情文件)

  • ⚑ AL2610(主力,持仓 269,032 手,+13,290):开 23,895,高 23,900,低 23,620,收 23,675,结算 23,740,前结算 23,930;较前结算价 −255(−1.07%),结算对结算 −190(−0.79%),收盘对收盘较 8月18日的 23,955 下跌 280 元(−1.17%);成交 180,862 手。
  • ⚑ 当日低点 23,620 较 8月14日低点 23,795 下穿 175 元——本简报点名为判别标准的地板已被跌破,而非受检验。收盘价亦低于该低点 120 元。
  • AL2609:开 23,820,高 23,870,低 23,610,收 23,650,结算 23,720;较前结算价 −265,收盘对收盘 −285(−1.19%);成交 120,997 手,持仓 144,364 手(−30,840)。
  • AL2611:收 23,670,持仓 83,310 手(+7,350)。AL2612:收 23,640,持仓 58,983 手(+2,602)。
  • 品种合计:成交 367,560 手(前值 274,920,+33.7%),持仓 622,659 手(−4,103)。
  • ⚑ 主力已确定移仓:AL2610 持仓 269,032 手已超过 AL2609 的 144,364 手达 124,668 手;09 合约减仓 30,840 手,而 10、11 合约分别增仓 13,290 与 7,350 手——品种持仓的下降形态为「移仓」而非「离场」,且成交量增加三分之一(此为推算)。

⚑ 均线:MA20 失守,而当日低点下穿 MA60 两点

  • ⚑ 校验声明:以上期所原始日行情文件重算 8月18日窗口,可精确复现前期已公布的沪铝 MA5 24,050.00、MA10 24,030.00 与 MA20 23,731.75。
  • ⊘ 同一重算得出 MA30 23,531.17(前期公布 23,526.67)、MA40 23,358.50(前期 23,360.13)、MA60 23,636.92(前期 23,636.58),差额分别为 4.50、1.63 与 0.34 元,源于历史更早处一个或多个主力合约选择的差异;列出但不调和。承载本期论证的短周期均线为精确一致。
  • 底层收盘价(主力=持仓最大合约):8月3日 23,640、8月4日 23,810、8月5日 23,785、8月6日 23,810、8月7日 24,040、8月10日 24,165、8月11日 24,250、8月12日 24,285、8月13日 24,090、8月14日 23,885、8月17日 24,035、8月18日 23,955、8月19日 23,675。
  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(至 8月19日,84 个交易日):MA5 23,928.00、MA10 24,019.00、MA20 23,756.00、MA30 23,551.17、MA40 23,364.00、MA60 23,622.00。
  • ⚑ 收盘 23,675:低于 MA5 253.00 元,低于 MA10 344.00 元,低于 MA20 81.00 元(失守);高于 MA30 123.83 元、MA40 311.00 元,而仅高于 MA60 53.00 元。
  • ⚑ 当日低点 23,620 低于 MA60(23,622.00)2.00 元——六十日均线盘中已被下穿,收盘方才收回(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 20 个交易日窗口本期已重算(前期曾声明不予重算):窗口为 7月23日–8月19日,收盘价区间 23,195(7月27日)–24,285(8月12日),23,675 处于该区间 44.0% 分位。60 个交易日窗口为 5月27日–8月19日,区间 22,370(7月1日)–24,825(6月2日),分位 53.2%。
  • ⚑ 23,675 为 8月3日(23,640)以来、即十一个交易日以来的最低主力收盘价;并回吐 8月3日至 8月12日这一轮 645 点涨幅中的 610 点,即 94.6%(此为推算)。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:铸造铝合金亦失守全部均线

  • AO2610(主力,持仓 299,639 手,+7,316):开 2,671,高 2,685,低 2,664,收 2,668,结算 2,672,前结算 2,678;较前结算价 −10,收盘对收盘 −13(−0.49%);成交 131,169 手。AO2609 收 2,667,结算 2,674,持仓 87,919 手(−3,094)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝品种合计:成交 173,376 手(前值 307,533,−43.6%),持仓 567,033 手(+6,911)。资金流向完全反转——沪铝成交量为氧化铝的 2.12 倍,而 8月18日尚为氧化铝反超(此为推算)。
  • AD2610(主力,持仓 18,352 手,−509):开 23,025,高 23,040,低 22,875,收 22,940,结算 22,950,前结算 23,070;较前结算价 −130,收盘对收盘 −145(−0.63%);成交 9,785 手。AD2609 收 22,895,结算 22,915,持仓 4,397 手(−250)。品种合计成交 14,435 手,持仓 24,303 手(−610)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝均线(自建口径):MA5 2,684.40、MA10 2,695.10、MA20 2,681.75、MA30 2,688.40、MA40 2,706.50、MA60 2,759.27。收盘 2,668 连续第二个交易日低于全部六条。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金均线(自建口径):MA5 23,157.00、MA10 23,351.00、MA20 23,271.25、MA30 23,168.33、MA40 23,047.00、MA60 23,098.08。收盘 22,940 已低于全部六条——最后一条 MA40 以 107.00 元之差失守。

⚑ 伦铝:以十九美分之差失守全部均线,而库存连续第二日零变动

  • ⚑ Westmetall 官方口径:8月19日现货结算 3,191.50 美元(−27.50,−0.85%),三个月 3,212.00 美元(−22.00,−0.68%)。
  • ⚑ 现货对三个月价差为 −20.50 美元——contango 由 8月18日的 −15.00 美元继续扩大;8月17日为 0.00,8月14日为 +2.00。
  • ⚑ 库存 246,925 吨,连续第二个交易日零变动。序列:254,900(8月10日)→ 248,300(8月14日)→ 246,925(8月17、18、19日)。
  • 现货价较 8月11日周期高点 3,373.00 美元累计下跌 181.50 美元(−5.38%)。
  • ⚑ 本简报自建伦铝均线(Westmetall 现货结算价):MA5 3,241.90、MA10 3,275.80、MA20 3,243.62、MA40 3,191.69、MA60 3,311.67 美元。现货 3,191.50 已低于全部五条——最后一条 MA40 以 0.19 美元之差交出。
  • ⚑ 伦铝均线口径本期精确获验:重算 8月18日窗口可复现已公布的 MA5 3,265.10、MA10 3,279.55、MA20 3,244.30(公布值 3,244.31)、MA40 3,190.65 与 MA60 3,320.78,精确至美分。
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics 于 8月19日时点报 3,231.95 美元,上涨 14.95 美元(+0.46%),月 +3.01%、年 +25.14%——与 Westmetall 的 −0.85% 方向相反,为本轮两口径分歧最大的一次;两者并列,不作调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 判别标准的解算:昨日本简报写明「23,795 是唯一仍然完整的技术事实……跌破则结构由回调转为转势」。该位未获检验即被跌破 175 点,收盘低于其 120 点。此为本简报连续三期收敛后仅存的技术论据的移除(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 回撤幅度:8月3日 23,640 至 8月12日 24,285 的涨幅为 645 点;8月19日收盘回吐 610 点,占 94.6%。十一个交易日内 8 月涨幅几近全额交还(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 最后一条均线的厚度:收盘仅高于 MA60 53.00 元,且当日低点已在其下方运行。均线支撑的「持有」与「未被跌破」在本期并非同一件事(此为推算与解读)。
  • ⚑ 跨市场比价:23,675 / 3,191.50 = 7.418,而 8月18日为 7.442、8月17日为 7.346。比值回落约 0.024——沪铝本日跌幅(−1.17%)大于伦铝现货(−0.85%),恰为昨日所指「周二仅承接离岸跌幅五分之一、该缺口通常在其后校准」的兑现(此为推算与解读)。
  • ⚑ 持仓形态:品种持仓 −4,103 手,但 09 合约单独减仓 30,840 手,10、11、12 合约合计增仓 23,242 手,且成交量上升 33.7%。此为移仓换月的典型形态,与 8月18日「量缩持仓减」的多头离场形态性质不同(此为推算与解读)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:在地板破位当日,现货跌幅小于盘面

  • ⚑ 口径恢复:本期采用 SMM 自身报价页(hq.smm.cn),8月19日时点。
  • ⚑ A00 铝锭(8月19日):23,670 元/吨(区间 23,650–23,690),下跌 230 元(−0.96%)。
  • ⚑ 基差:对 AL2609 收盘价 23,650 升水 20 元;对 AL2610 收盘价 23,675 贴水 5 元(近似平水)。8月18日按长江有色口径为贴水 35 / 贴水 55。
  • ⚑ 口径警示:8月18日为长江有色口径、8月19日为 SMM/上海口径,故 +55 元的基差摆动属跨口径计算,应作方向读取,不应作幅度读取(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 分地区报价(8月19日):佛山 23,780(区间 23,760–23,800)、杭州 23,700、无锡 23,640、中原 23,590。
  • ⚑ 佛山对中原价差 190 元/吨;佛山高于上海 110 元,华中低于上海 80 元(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 8月19日 SMM 现货午评与情绪指数写稿时未取得;近月合约价差正向 20–50 元(contango,延续)。

⚑ 氧化铝:口径更正——SMM 自身指数 2,683.43 元,而非 2,666.0 元

  • ⚑ SMM 自身氧化铝指数(8月19日):2,683.43 元/吨,当日 −5.97 元。SMM 序列为:2,689.77(8月14日)→ 2,689.40(8月18日)→ 2,683.43(8月19日)。
  • ⚑ 本简报据此更正前期所载的聚合口径 2,666.0 元。按 SMM 口径,氧化铝现货三个交易日累计下跌约 6 元,而非约 24 元。
  • ⚑ 对照 8 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,700–2,820 元/吨:2,683.43 低于下沿 16.57 元(而非 34 元)。对照现金成本 2,530–2,650 元/吨:高出上沿 33.43 元(而非 16 元)(此为推算)。
  • 澳洲 FOB:349 美元/吨(+1);另有一船以 374 美元/吨 CFR 马来西亚成交(延续)。
  • ⊘ 7 月底 SMM 一篇分析将行业平均完全成本列为约 2,530 元/吨,并载港口氧化铝库存 94 万吨、华南待投新产能近 300 万吨;该成本数与 8 月的 2,700–2,820 区间冲突,列出但不调和。

再生铝与合金

  • ADC12:24,200 元/吨(延续);进口亏损已超过 1,000 元/吨。
  • ⚑ ADC12 现货对 AD2610 的理论升水扩大至 1,260 元/吨(24,200 对 22,940),昨日为 1,115 元——期货连续第二日下跌而现货未跟随(此为推算)。
  • 注册铸造铝合金仓单:18,311 吨(延续)。A00 与佛山地区混合铝挤压废料价差:约 2,250 元/吨(延续)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期最值得单独隔离的一项:A00 下跌 230 元,而 AL2609 下跌 285 元——现货跌幅小于盘面,基差由贴水翻回升水。此与 8月18日「A00 −170 对 AL2610 −80」的方向完全相反。在地板被跌破的当日,实体端并未跟随下行(此为推算与解读)。
  • ⚑ 但须并列的限制条件:两日口径不同(长江有色对 SMM),单一交易日亦不构成形态。本简报将其列为「方向性反证」,而非「趋势」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝的口径更正削弱了昨日所建立的论断。「成本通道由未跟随转为反向扣减」这一表述,在 SMM 口径下不成立——现货三日仅跌约 6 元。期货失守六条均线为事实且取自交易所文件,但现货成本塌陷有相当部分为口径造成(此为解读)。

⚑ 伦铝曲线与交割检验:8月19日已过,曲线未予印证

  • ⚑ 8月14日 +2.00 → 8月17日 0.00 → 8月18日 −15.00 → 8月19日 −20.50 美元。Contango 在被点名的交割日当日继续扩大。
  • ⚑ 库存连续第二个交易日零变动。昨日本简报写明「零变动一日尚不构成趋势,连续两日则构成」。已构成。
  • ⊘ 仓单集中度报道(延续,仅二手来源,且已趋陈旧):单一参与者持有注册铝仓单 80–90%;俄罗斯品牌约占可用伦铝 95%;非注册库存 85,645 吨;单一空头头寸 155,000–225,000 吨;亚洲二季度现货升水 350–353 美元/吨。流通中的注销仓单数据(11,750 吨对在库 244,650 吨)加总为 256,400 吨,恰为 8月7日库存数,仍属 8 月初口径。
  • ⚑ 结论性观察:交割日已过,未见可见的挤仓,且曲线在其后较其前更深地处于 contango。该论断应被下调评级,而非仅存疑(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 周四社库印记今日到期,写稿时尚未发布

  • ⚑ SMM 铝锭社会库存:周四(8月20日)印记今日到期,写稿时尚未发布;序列停留于 8月17日(周一)的 886,000 吨。周一序列 917,000 → 886,000;周四序列 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000。
  • ⊘ SMM 三地铝锭日度库存 8月19日数据写稿时未取得;延续 8月18日的 70.7 万吨(广东 17.3 万、无锡 32.3 万、巩义 21.1 万),较上期 +0.1 万吨。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,925 吨,连续第二个交易日零变动。
  • ⚑ 本期新增:日本三大港口 7 月末铝库存 201,000 吨,被描述为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
  • ⚑ 本期新增:铝棒库存(8月19日)广东 67,500 吨、无锡 26,000 吨,两地合计 93,500 吨。
  • 铸造铝合金锭库存(延续):25,500 吨,周增 1,500 吨——结束连续十周去库(累计去库 38,900 吨)。

解读

  • ⚑ 昨日本简报指出库存四条序列中三条已走平或累库,仅社库一条仍在去化且印记已两日未更新。今日印记到期,该条件将在数小时内被证实或证伪(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ LME 连续两日零变动已构成「走平」而非「单日噪声」——按本简报昨日自设的判据。同时须并列的是日本港口库存降至 2010 年 4 月以来最低,即海外可见库存的紧张并未消失,只是不再体现于 LME 注册仓单的日度变化中(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 若今日周四印记继续去化,则「三条走平」应被读作口径差异,库存一栏的结构性转向判断需被撤回;若转为累库,则 8月13日至 8月17日的去库应被追认为本轮尾声(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美联储:鹰派纪要,鸽派定价

  • ⚑ 7月28–29日 FOMC 会议纪要于 8月19日美东 14:00 公布,内容偏鹰:该次会议以 9 票对 3 票维持 3.50%–3.75%,克利夫兰联储 Hammack、明尼阿波利斯联储 Kashkari、达拉斯联储 Logan 三人均倾向加息 25 个基点。
  • ⚑ 纪要记载与会者表示「若通胀未能回落,政策收紧或将成为必要」,并载部分官员认为当前金融条件可能尚不足以使通胀回到 2%。
  • ⊘ 彭博报道称,7 月无投票权的堪萨斯城联储 Schmid 与圣路易斯联储 Musalem 其后表示,若有投票权将支持加息。
  • ⚑ 而市场向相反方向定价。Investing.com《美联储利率监测》(更新于 8月19日 20:35 美东,即纪要公布之后):9月16日 FOMC 维持概率 69.4%,加息至 3.75%–4.00% 概率 30.6%,降息 0%;对应期货 96.335。
  • ⚑ 30.6% 低于昨日所载的 33.3% 与 8月17日的 35.3%——连续第二个交易日回落,且回落发生在鹰派文件公布之后。
  • 10月28日:维持 56.6%,加息一次 37.7%,加息两次 5.6%(期货 96.285;前值 52.9/40.2/6.9)。12月9日:3.50–3.75% 35.7%、3.75–4.00% 44.7%、4.00–4.25% 17.5%、4.25–4.50% 2.1%(期货 96.175),隐含年内至少加息一次概率约 64.3%,前值 65.4%(此为推算)。
  • 杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会为 8月27–29日;沃什就任主席后的首次演讲在 8月28日(周五)。

⚑ 美元与能源:美元跌破 99

  • ⚑ 美元指数 98.853(8月20日时点),当日 +0.07%;四周 −2.29%,十二个月 +0.24%。较 8月18日所载的 99.40 已跌破 99 整数关口。
  • ⚑ 本简报昨日指出「美元的三日下行未能延续……方向已转为持平」。该判断已被证伪:下行不仅恢复,且跌破了整数位(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 布伦特:91.93 美元/桶,+0.31(+0.34%);月 +1.01%、年 +35.85%;周涨逾 3%——连续第五个上涨交易日。

⚑ 地缘政治:伊朗向阿联酋发射弹道导弹,阿联酋中止全部对伊贸易

  • ⚑ 阿联酋国防部称,伊朗于 8月18日向该国发射两枚弹道导弹,评估显示目标为海上交通。
  • ⚑ 8月19日,阿联酋宣布中止与伊朗的一切贸易、商业往来与金融交易,直至另行通知。
  • ⊘ 伊朗外交部发言人 Esmail Baghaei 断然否认伊朗曾向阿联酋发射导弹。
  • ⚑ 铝业相关性:阿联酋为 EGA 所在国;Al Taweelah 电解铝厂已于 3月28日遭导弹损毁。⊘ 二手分析将中东列为全球电解铝产能的约 9%,并将 EGA 与 Alba 合计扰动列为 300 万–350 万吨、约占全球产量 5%。
  • 6月17日《伊斯兰堡备忘录》项下的免费通行窗口已于 8月16日前后到期;赫格塞思称海上封锁「无限期」;自 7月13日起美中央司令部已劝返 59 艘商船(延续)。

中国政策与数据

  • ⚑ 8 月 LPR 于今日(8月20日)公布,写稿时尚未发布。一年期 3.0%、五年期 3.5%,截至 7 月已连续十四个月维持不变且均处历史低位;市场普遍预期维持不变。
  • 7 月经济活动数据(延续,已确认):工业增加值 +4.5%(预期 4.8%);社零 +0.6%(预期 1.5%);1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%(预期 −6.0%);城镇调查失业率 5.2%;新建商品住宅价格环比 −0.1%、同比 −3.2%。
  • 7 月金融数据(延续):M2 +7.7%;人民币贷款余额 +5.1%(历史低位);1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元(上年同期 12.87 万亿元)。
  • 美国数据(延续):7 月零售销售环比 −0.6%;密歇根大学 8 月信心初值 51.0;7 月生产者价格持平。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 利多铝价:鹰派纪要公布后 9 月加息概率仍由 33.3% 回落至 30.6%;美元跌破 99 至 98.853,四周 −2.29%;布伦特连续第五日上涨;伊朗向阿联酋发射导弹并引发全面贸易中止,为数周以来首个方向指向「扰动加剧」而非「扰动化解」的供应风险事项。
  • ⚑ 利空铝价:纪要本身内容偏鹰,且有两名非票委表态支持加息,若后续数据不配合,30.6% 具备回升空间;中国 7 月三条要害线的疲弱未被任何新数据修正;LPR 若如期维持,货币端对固投 −6.7% 无新增对冲。
  • ⚑ 本期的核心宏观观察:鹰派文件未能抬升加息定价,反而伴随美元跌破整数关口。市场判定该文件已被 7 月零售销售 −0.6% 与信心初值 51.0 所超越。这是本期最强的单项宏观信号(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 净读数:宏观一栏由昨日的「中性偏利空」上调至「中性偏利多」——为本简报数期以来首次上调(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 海外供应:方向首次转回「扰动加剧」

  • ⚑ 新增(见第四节):伊朗 8月18日向阿联酋发射两枚弹道导弹,阿联酋 8月19日中止全部对伊贸易与金融往来。阿联酋为 EGA 所在国,Al Taweelah 已于 3月28日受损。
  • ⊘ 二手口径:中东约占全球电解铝产能 9%;EGA 与 Alba 合计扰动或达 300 万–350 万吨,约占全球产量 5%。
  • EGA 几内亚铝土矿争议已和解(延续):几内亚向 GAC 一次性付款以完成资产向国有 Nimba Mining 的转让,并续签与 CBG 的供应合同,CBG 可恢复向 EGA 阿联酋业务发运。⊘ 同一报道称霍尔木兹扰动仍阻碍实际交付,且 Al Taweelah 电解铝厂「或需一年方能恢复」,与本简报延续的「18% 产能、2027 年一季度满产」冲突,不作调和。
  • 其他海外事项(延续):Alunorte 恢复满产(累计损失产量 10 万–12 万吨,三季度影响 7,500 万–1 亿美元);Tomago 获十年 25 亿澳元支持(自 2029 年起);Slovalco(四季度)与密苏里冶炼厂(年末)待复产。

国内供应与成本

  • 7 月产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%(31 天口径);月末建成产能约 4,629 万吨,环比持平(延续)。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预期 78.5%;7 月铸锭产量同比 −15.1%、环比 −1.4%(延续)。
  • 西南地区被动减产延续(延续)。
  • ⚑ 成本读数按更正后的 SMM 口径重述:氧化铝指数 2,683.43 元低于 8 月完全成本下沿 16.57 元,高于现金成本上沿 33.43 元。前期基于聚合口径所述的「已逼近现金成本线」在 SMM 口径下并不成立(此为推算与解读)。
  • 几内亚上半年铝土矿出口创纪录 1.148 亿吨,同比 +15%;冶炼厂铝土矿库存接近 96 天(延续)。

下游需求(延续,无新印记)

  • 乘联会 7 月:乘用车零售 146.1 万辆,同比 −20.9%;燃油车零售 51.0 万辆,同比 −41%;新能源零售 95.1 万辆,同比 −3.9%,渗透率 65.1%;新能源出口 54.0 万辆,同比 +147.8%。
  • SMM 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%,环比 −4.4 个百分点,七个细分板块全部收缩(铝箔 39.0、建筑型材 39.7、再生合金 37.6、板带 44.8、工业型材 42.1、线缆 44.4、原生合金 43.9)。
  • 铝棒:7 月开工率 58.3%(年内高位),8 月预期回落至约 56.9%;加工费已低于行业平均生产成本。

解读

  • ⚑ 供应端唯一未受争议的利多项仍为 7 月铸锭产量同比 −15.1%,其不依赖任何海外事件。本期其地位由「唯一」变为「之一」——阿联酋遭导弹袭击为数周以来首个方向朝向扰动的新增事项(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 须以对称口径陈述的是:该事项目前仍属地缘风险,而非已确认的产量损失。阿联酋中止对伊贸易本身不减少铝产量;其意义在于将 EGA 所在地重新纳入直接受击范围(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 昨日「资金由金属流向原料的空头侧」的判断在一个交易日内被反转:氧化铝成交 −43.6%、沪铝成交 +33.7%。本简报据此撤回该判断的持续性含义(此为解读)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 分地区结构(8月19日,SMM 口径)

  • ⚑ 佛山 23,780(区间 23,760–23,800)、杭州 23,700、上海 23,670(区间 23,650–23,690)、无锡 23,640、中原 23,590。
  • ⚑ 佛山对中原价差 190 元/吨,为本简报近期所载最宽之一;华南地区报价高于华东与华中(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 基差:对 AL2609 升水 20 元,对 AL2610 贴水 5 元。
  • ⊘ 8月19日 SMM 现货午评与成交描述写稿时未取得。

情绪指数(SMM,8月17日,延续)

  • 华东:出货意愿指数 3.15(周环比 +0.01);采购意愿指数 3.40(周环比 +0.06)。
  • 华中:出货意愿指数 3.09(周环比持平);采购意愿指数 2.90(周环比 −0.07)。
  • ⊘ 内部张力(延续):华东采购指数上升 0.06,而同一文章叙述称采购情绪回落。两者并列,不调和。

解读:情绪读数

  • 出货意愿:中性(延续 8月17日口径)。
  • 采购意愿:⚑ 本期出现一项可观测的间接证据——在盘面跌破关键位、跌幅达 1.17% 的当日,现货跌幅仅 0.96%,且基差翻回升水。此形态通常对应下游逢低采购承接,而非观望(此为解读,非 SMM 直接口径)。
  • ⚑ 综合读数:现货一栏由昨日的「跟跌且跌幅大于盘面」转为「跟跌但跌幅小于盘面、基差翻回升水」。这是本期与技术破位方向相反的最清晰一项(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日 11:00 前后的 SMM A00 报价将检验两点:升水 20 元能否维持,以及现货是否在期货企稳后补跌(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

  • ⚑ 现货跌幅小于盘面:A00 −230(−0.96%)对 AL2609 −285(−1.19%),基差由贴水翻回对 09 合约升水 20 元。
  • ⚑ 鹰派纪要公布后,9 月加息概率仍由 33.3% 回落至 30.6%,降息概率维持 0%——市场判定该文件已被后续数据超越。
  • ⚑ 美元指数跌破 99 至 98.853,四周 −2.29%;本简报昨日「下行已转为持平」的判断被证伪。
  • ⚑ 伊朗于 8月18日向阿联酋发射两枚弹道导弹;阿联酋 8月19日中止全部对伊贸易与金融交易。⊘ 阿联酋为 EGA 所在国,Al Taweelah 已受导弹损毁。
  • ⚑ ⊘ 二手口径:中东约占全球电解铝产能 9%;EGA 与 Alba 合计扰动或达 300 万–350 万吨。
  • ⚑ 布伦特 91.93 美元,连续第五个上涨交易日,周涨逾 3%,年 +35.85%。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝口径更正:SMM 自身指数 2,683.43 元,三日仅跌约 6 元;成本通道的下行远小于前期聚合口径所示。
  • ⚑ 资金由原料流回金属:沪铝成交 +33.7% 至 367,560 手,氧化铝成交 −43.6% 至 173,376 手。
  • ⚑ 新增:日本三大港口 7 月末库存 201,000 吨,2010 年 4 月以来最低——海外可见库存的紧张并未消失。
  • ⚑ 沪铝持仓下降为移仓形态而非离场:09 合约 −30,840 手,10/11/12 合约合计 +23,242 手,成交量同时上升三分之一(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 收盘仍高于 MA60(23,622.00)53.00 元与 MA30(23,551.17)123.83 元;低点虽下穿 MA60 两点但收回。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,925 吨仍处历史低位区间,SMM 区间下沿 3,180 美元距现货仅 11.50 美元。
  • ⚑ ADC12 对 AD2610 的理论升水扩大至 1,260 元——期货连续下跌而再生合金现货未跟随。
  • 7 月铸锭产量同比 −15.1%,直接减少可入库单元——仍为不依赖海外事件的供应端利多项。
  • 7 月铝水比例 78.3%、8 月预期 78.5%,持续挤压铸锭。
  • 月末建成产能约 4,629 万吨环比持平,接近天花板;西南被动减产延续。
  • 铝棒社库与厂库均处近年同期偏低水平;8 月进口铝土矿发运预期因雨季收缩。
  • ⊘ 亚洲二季度现货升水 350–353 美元/吨,被称为十一年高位(延续,二手来源)。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 23,795 地板被跌破:AL2610 低点 23,620 下穿 175 点,收盘 23,675 低于该低点 120 点。本简报此前指明,跌破意味着结构由回调转为转势。
  • ⚑ 23,675 为 8月3日以来最低主力收盘价,回吐 8 月涨幅的 94.6%(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ MA20(23,756.00)失守 81.00 元;收盘低于 MA5 253.00 元、低于 MA10 344.00 元。
  • ⚑ 当日低点 23,620 下穿 MA60(23,622.00)2.00 元——最后一条均线盘中已被跌破。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货 3,191.50 美元低于 MA40(3,191.69)0.19 美元,已低于本简报所计的全部五条均线。
  • ⚑ 伦铝 contango 由 −15.00 扩大至 −20.50 美元——市场为「延后持有」支付的价格上升。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,925 吨连续第二个交易日零变动,按本简报昨日自设判据已构成走平。
  • ⚑ 被点名的 8月19日交割检验已过,未见可见挤仓,且曲线在其后更深地处于 contango——仓单集中度论断应被下调评级(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货较 8月11日高点 3,373.00 美元回落 181.50 美元(−5.38%)。
  • ⚑ 沪铝本日跌幅大于伦铝(−1.17% 对 −0.85%),比值由 7.442 回落至 7.418——周二未承接的离岸跌幅已被补齐(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金 AD2610 收 22,940,失守最后一条均线 MA40(23,047.00)达 107.00 元,现已低于全部六条。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,668,连续第二个交易日低于全部六条均线;SMM 现货指数 2,683.43 仍低于完全成本下沿 16.57 元。
  • ⚑ 库存四条序列中三条仍走平或累库(LME 连续两日持平、三地 +0.1 万吨、铸造合金锭 +1,500 吨);社库印记今日到期,写稿时未发布。
  • ⚑ FOMC 纪要内容偏鹰:9 票对 3 票维持,三名票委倾向加息,并载「若通胀未能回落,政策收紧或将成为必要」;⊘ 另有两名非票委表态支持加息。30.6% 的加息概率具备回升空间。
  • ⚑ 阿联酋事项目前为地缘风险而非已确认产量损失;中止对伊贸易本身不减少铝产量(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 收盘距 SMM 区间下沿 23,600 仅 75 点;若失守,下方仅余 MA30 23,551.17 与 MA40 23,364.00。
  • ⚑ 价格处于 20 日窗口(本期重算)的 44.0% 分位,与前期口径不可直接比较;8 月涨幅几近全额交还(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics 与 Westmetall 在 8月19日方向相反(+0.46% 对 −0.85%),为本轮分歧最大的一次,增加口径不确定性。
  • 中国 7 月工业增加值 +4.5%、社零 +0.6%、1–7 月固投 −6.7%,三条要害线全部不及预期(延续)。
  • 7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%;铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个细分板块全部收缩;铝棒开工率 8 月预期回落至 56.9%(延续)。
  • 中国 7 月人民币贷款余额 +5.1% 为历史低位;1–7 月新增贷款 10.38 万亿元,远低于上年同期(延续)。
  • LPR 若如期维持 3.0%/3.5%,货币端对固投 −6.7% 无新增对冲(延续)。
  • Alunorte 恢复满产;Tomago 获救;EGA 几内亚和解恢复原料保障——海外扰动一栏的旧项目持续被拆解(延续)。
  • ⊘ SMM 预期区间维持 23,600–24,450 与 3,180–3,330 美元,均未调整。

八 · 一句话观点

技术面已完成破位——8月14日低点 23,795 被下穿 175 点,收盘 23,675 为 8月3日以来最低并回吐 8 月涨幅的 94.6%,MA20 失守 81.00 元,当日低点下穿 MA60 两点,而伦铝现货以 0.19 美元之差失守其全部五条均线、contango 扩大至 −20.50 美元、库存连续第二日零变动且被点名的 8月19日交割检验无声通过;然而在同一交易日,现货跌幅小于盘面并使基差翻回升水 20 元、鹰派纪要公布后加息概率仍降至 30.6%、美元跌破 99 至 98.853、伊朗向阿联酋发射弹道导弹并触发阿联酋全面中止对伊贸易——因此当前更宜将其读作「盘面完成筑顶而现货与宏观开始反驳」的分歧结构,该结构通常在极值而非中值处解算,而今日的社库印记与 LPR 将决定由哪一侧解算;下方顺序为 23,622.00(MA60)→ 23,600(SMM 区间下沿)→ 23,551.17(MA30)。

九 · 今日日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 23,622.00(MA60)。这是最后一条尚未在收盘意义上失守的均线,收盘仅高出 53.00 元,且 8月19日低点已在其下方运行过。若日盘或夜盘收于其下,则六条均线全数失守,下方顺序为 23,600(SMM 区间下沿,仅 75 点)→ 23,551.17(MA30)→ 23,364.00(MA40)→ 23,195(20 日窗口收盘低点)。上方顺序:23,740(8月19日结算)→ 23,756.00(MA20,首个需收复位)→ 23,795(已破地板,现为阻力)→ 23,928.00(MA5)→ 24,019.00(MA10)。
  • ⚑ 今日 SMM 周四社会库存印记。这是唯一能够裁决「库存结构是否已转向」的国内数据。继续去化则「三条走平」应读作口径差异,库存一栏的转向判断需撤回;转为累库则 8月13日至 8月17日的去库为本轮尾声。同时留意三地日度库存 8月19日数据能否补齐。
  • ⚑ 今日中国 8 月 LPR(写稿时未公布)。一年期 3.0%、五年期 3.5% 若如期维持,则货币端对固投 −6.7% 无新增对冲;若出现调整,则为一年多来首次,须重新评估国内需求端的政策斜率。
  • ⚑ 伦铝能否收复 MA40(3,191.69 美元)以及 contango 是否收窄。现货以 0.19 美元之差失守该位,属最易反复的一类破位;而 −20.50 美元的 contango 在交割日之后仍在扩大,若继续扩大则仓单集中度论断在定价上已被否定。同时关注库存能否恢复下降——连续两日零变动之后,第三日的方向具有判定意义。
  • ⚑ 阿联酋—伊朗事态的后续。重点为:是否出现新的导弹发射或针对能源与工业设施的袭击;阿联酋中止对伊贸易是否扩大至第三方转口;以及 EGA 是否就 Al Taweelah 的运营状态作出任何新表述。这是数周以来首个方向朝向供应扰动的事项,其兑现程度决定其应被计入风险溢价还是实际产量(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日 11:00 前后的 SMM A00 报价与基差。核心为对 09 合约的 20 元升水能否维持:若维持甚至扩大,则「现货不跟随破位」由单日形态升级为可用证据;若迅速回到贴水,则 8月19日的抗跌应被读作报价滞后(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 美元能否守住 99 下方,以及加息概率是否在鹰派纪要的滞后消化中回升。30.6% 的定价发生在纪要公布之后,已包含该信息;但两名非票委的表态与「若通胀未能回落则需收紧」的表述,使该概率在后续通胀数据前具备双向弹性(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝能否在成本线附近企稳,以及资金是否继续回流金属端。AO2610 已连续两日低于全部六条均线,而 SMM 现货指数仅低于完全成本下沿 16.57 元;同时留意氧化铝成交 −43.6% 与沪铝成交 +33.7% 的反转是否延续。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the caliber changes

  • This brief was written on the morning of Thursday August 20.
  • ⊘ The AUGUST 19 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 19 to 01:00 August 20) is carried on the quotation-page caliber only: SMM had not published its Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary at writing. hq.smm.cn shows the SHFE aluminium main continuous at 23,685, −55 (−0.23%) against the August 19 settlement of 23,740 — ten points ABOVE the August 19 day close of 23,675.
  • ⚑ CALIBER RESTORED: SMM’s own A00 quotation is retrievable this edition, resolving the problem the prior two editions carried.
  • ⚑ CALIBER CORRECTED: alumina moves to SMM’s own index of 2,683.43, replacing the 2,666.0 aggregator figure carried yesterday (see section 2).

⚑ SHFE: the 23,795 floor broke (taken from the exchange’s own daily file)

  • ⚑ AL2610, main with open interest 269,032 (+13,290): open 23,895, high 23,900, low 23,620, close 23,675, settlement 23,740, previous settlement 23,930; −255 on the previous settlement (−1.07%), −190 settlement-over-settlement (−0.79%), and −280 (−1.17%) close-over-close against August 18’s 23,955; volume 180,862.
  • ⚑ THE LOW OF 23,620 IS 175 BELOW THE AUGUST 14 LOW OF 23,795. The level this brief named as the discriminating fact was broken, not tested; the close sits 120 beneath it.
  • AL2609: open 23,820, high 23,870, low 23,610, close 23,650, settlement 23,720; −265 on the previous settlement and −285 (−1.19%) close-over-close; volume 120,997, open interest 144,364 (−30,840).
  • AL2611: close 23,670, open interest 83,310 (+7,350). AL2612: close 23,640, open interest 58,983 (+2,602).
  • Whole product: volume 367,560 (from 274,920, +33.7%), open interest 622,659 (−4,103).
  • ⚑ THE MAIN CONTRACT HAS DEFINITIVELY ROLLED: AL2610’s 269,032 now exceeds AL2609’s 144,364 by 124,668. The 09’s 30,840-lot decline against 13,290 added to the 10 and 7,350 to the 11 makes the whole-product fall a ROLL rather than liquidation — and it happened on volume that rose a third (this is a derivation).

⚑ Moving averages: MA20 lost, and the day’s low pierced MA60 by two points

  • ⚑ Verification: recomputing the August 18 window from SHFE’s raw daily files reproduces the previously published aluminium MA5 of 24,050.00, MA10 of 24,030.00 and MA20 of 23,731.75 EXACTLY.
  • ⊘ The same recomputation gives MA30 23,531.17 against the published 23,526.67, MA40 23,358.50 against 23,360.13 and MA60 23,636.92 against 23,636.58 — differences of 4.50, 1.63 and 0.34 arising from main-contract selections deeper in the history. Listed and NOT reconciled; the short averages that carry this edition’s argument are exact.
  • The underlying closes (main = highest-open-interest contract): August 3 23,640, August 4 23,810, August 5 23,785, August 6 23,810, August 7 24,040, August 10 24,165, August 11 24,250, August 12 24,285, August 13 24,090, August 14 23,885, August 17 24,035, August 18 23,955, August 19 23,675.
  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium averages to August 19 (84 sessions): MA5 23,928.00, MA10 24,019.00, MA20 23,756.00, MA30 23,551.17, MA40 23,364.00, MA60 23,622.00.
  • ⚑ Against those, the close of 23,675 is 253.00 below MA5, 344.00 below MA10 and 81.00 BELOW MA20, while holding +123.83 over MA30, +311.00 over MA40 — and only +53.00 over MA60.
  • ⚑ THE DAY’S LOW OF 23,620 IS 2.00 BELOW MA60 AT 23,622.00. The sixty-day average was pierced intraday and recovered only on the close (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The twenty-session window IS RECOMPUTED THIS EDITION, which the prior edition declined to do: July 23 to August 19, close range 23,195 (July 27) to 24,285 (August 12), placing 23,675 at the 44.0th percentile. The sixty-session window runs May 27 to August 19, range 22,370 (July 1) to 24,825 (June 2), placing the close at the 53.2nd percentile.
  • ⚑ 23,675 IS THE LOWEST MAIN-CONTRACT CLOSE SINCE AUGUST 3’S 23,640 — eleven sessions — and it retraces 610 of the 645-point August 3-to-August 12 advance, or 94.6% (this is a derivation).

⚑ Alumina and cast aluminium alloy: the cast alloy lost its last average too

  • AO2610, main with open interest 299,639 (+7,316): open 2,671, high 2,685, low 2,664, close 2,668, settlement 2,672, previous settlement 2,678; −10 on the previous settlement and −13 (−0.49%) close-over-close; volume 131,169. AO2609 close 2,667, settlement 2,674, open interest 87,919 (−3,094).
  • ⚑ Whole-product alumina: volume 173,376 (from 307,533, −43.6%), open interest 567,033 (+6,911). THE FLOW REVERSED COMPLETELY — aluminium’s volume is 2.12 times alumina’s, having been beaten by it on August 18 (this is a derivation).
  • AD2610, main with open interest 18,352 (−509): open 23,025, high 23,040, low 22,875, close 22,940, settlement 22,950, previous settlement 23,070; −130 on the previous settlement and −145 (−0.63%) close-over-close; volume 9,785. AD2609 close 22,895, settlement 22,915, open interest 4,397 (−250). Whole product: volume 14,435, open interest 24,303 (−610).
  • ⚑ Alumina averages, own caliber: MA5 2,684.40, MA10 2,695.10, MA20 2,681.75, MA30 2,688.40, MA40 2,706.50, MA60 2,759.27. The close of 2,668 is below ALL SIX for a second consecutive session.
  • ⚑ Cast alloy averages, own caliber: MA5 23,157.00, MA10 23,351.00, MA20 23,271.25, MA30 23,168.33, MA40 23,047.00, MA60 23,098.08. The close of 22,940 is now below ALL SIX, having surrendered MA40 — its last remaining average — by 107.00.

⚑ LME: every average lost, by nineteen cents, with stocks unchanged a second day

  • ⚑ Westmetall official caliber: August 19 cash settlement $3,191.50 (−$27.50, −0.85%), three-month $3,212.00 (−$22.00, −0.68%).
  • ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread is −$20.50 — the contango WIDENED from −$15.00 on August 18, against $0.00 on August 17 and +$2.00 on August 14.
  • ⚑ Stocks 246,925 mt, UNCHANGED FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION. The series: 254,900 (August 10) → 248,300 (August 14) → 246,925 (August 17, 18 and 19).
  • Cash is −$181.50 (−5.38%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00.
  • ⚑ This brief’s own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,241.90, MA10 $3,275.80, MA20 $3,243.62, MA40 $3,191.69, MA60 $3,311.67. Cash at $3,191.50 is now BELOW EVERY ONE, having lost MA40 by $0.19.
  • ⚑ The LME caliber is verified EXACTLY this edition: recomputing the August 18 window reproduces the published MA5 $3,265.10, MA10 $3,279.55, MA20 $3,244.30 (published 3,244.31), MA40 $3,190.65 and MA60 $3,320.78 to the cent.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics carries $3,231.95, +$14.95 (+0.46%), month +3.01%, year +25.14% on an August 19 stamp — a POSITIVE session against Westmetall’s −0.85%, the widest directional disagreement between the two calibers in this cycle. Both listed, NOT reconciled.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The test resolves against the metal. Yesterday this brief wrote that 23,795 was ‘the only technical fact still working’ and that breaking it ‘converts the structure since August 13 from correction to trend change’. It was broken by 175 points on the low and closed 120 beneath, without a defensive attempt. That removes the last technical argument this brief had narrowed to over three editions (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Retracement: the August 3 close of 23,640 to the August 12 close of 24,285 was a 645-point advance. August 19 gives back 610 of it — 94.6% — in eleven sessions (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ How thin the last average is: the close holds MA60 by 53.00, and the day’s low already traded beneath it. ‘Holding’ and ‘not having been broken’ are not the same statement in this edition (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • ⚑ Cross-market: 23,675 / $3,191.50 = 7.418, against 7.442 on August 18 and 7.346 on August 17. The ratio pulled back roughly 0.024 — SHFE fell HARDER than LME cash on the day (−1.17% against −0.85%), which is exactly the calibration this brief said usually follows an un-absorbed offshore decline (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • ⚑ Open-interest shape: whole-product open interest fell 4,103, but the 09 alone shed 30,840 while the 10, 11 and 12 added 23,242 combined, on volume up 33.7%. That is the signature of a roll, not the long-liquidation shape of August 18 (this is a derivation and interpretation).

⚑ Spot: on the day the floor broke, the physical fell LESS than the paper

  • ⚑ Caliber restored: this edition uses SMM’s own quotation page (hq.smm.cn), August 19 stamp.
  • ⚑ A00 aluminium ingot (August 19): 23,670 yuan/mt (range 23,650–23,690), −230 (−0.96%).
  • ⚑ Basis: a PREMIUM of 20 against AL2609’s close of 23,650, and a discount of 5 against AL2610’s 23,675 — effectively par. On August 18, on the Changjiang caliber, it was −35/−55.
  • ⚑ CALIBER WARNING: August 18 was Changjiang and August 19 is SMM/Shanghai, so the +55 basis swing is caliber-crossed. Read it as direction, not magnitude (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Regional quotations (August 19): Foshan 23,780 (range 23,760–23,800), Hangzhou 23,700, Shanghai 23,670, Wuxi 23,640, Zhongyuan 23,590.
  • ⚑ The Foshan-to-Zhongyuan spread is 190 yuan/mt, with Foshan 110 above Shanghai and Central China 80 below it (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ SMM’s August 19 spot midday commentary and sentiment indices were not retrievable at writing. Near-month spread in contango of 20–50 yuan/mt (carried).

⚑ Alumina: a caliber correction — SMM’s own index is 2,683.43, not 2,666.0

  • ⚑ SMM’s OWN alumina index (August 19): 2,683.43 yuan/mt, −5.97 on the day. The SMM series reads 2,689.77 (August 14) → 2,689.40 (August 18) → 2,683.43 (August 19).
  • ⚑ This brief CORRECTS the 2,666.0 aggregator figure carried in the prior edition. On SMM’s caliber, alumina spot has fallen roughly 6 yuan across three sessions, not roughly 24.
  • ⚑ Against August’s national weighted-average full cost of 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt, 2,683.43 sits 16.57 below the floor — not 34. Against the cash-cost band of 2,530–2,650, it sits 33.43 above the top — not 16 (this is a derivation).
  • Australian FOB $349/mt (+$1); a cargo traded at $374 CFR Malaysia (carried).
  • ⊘ A late-July SMM analysis put the industry average full cost near 2,530 yuan/mt with port alumina inventories at 940,000 mt and nearly 3 million mt of new south-China capacity pending. That conflicts with the August 2,700–2,820 band and is not reconciled.

Secondary aluminium and alloy

  • ADC12: 24,200 yuan/mt (carried); the import loss exceeds 1,000 yuan/mt.
  • ⚑ The theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium widens to 1,260 yuan/mt (24,200 against 22,940), from 1,115 yesterday — the futures fell a second day and the secondary spot did not follow (this is a derivation).
  • Total registered cast aluminium alloy warrants 18,311 mt; A00-to-Foshan-mixed-extrusion-scrap spread approximately 2,250 yuan/mt (both carried).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The fact worth isolating above all others in this section: A00 fell 230 while AL2609 fell 285. The physical fell LESS than the paper and the basis flipped from discount back to a 20 premium. That is the exact inverse of August 18, when A00’s −170 against the futures’ −80 was called the most direct evidence of physical softening in that edition. On the day the floor broke, the physical market declined to follow it down (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • ⚑ The constraint that must be stated alongside it: the two days use different calibers (Changjiang against SMM), and a single session is not a pattern. This brief records it as a directional counter-fact, not a trend (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The alumina correction weakens an argument this brief made yesterday. ‘The cost channel has moved from not following to actively subtracting’ does not hold on SMM’s caliber, where spot fell about 6 yuan in three sessions. The futures losing all six averages is a fact taken from the exchange’s own files and stands; the spot cost collapse was substantially a caliber artefact (this is interpretation).

⚑ The LME curve and the delivery test: August 19 came and went uncorroborated

  • ⚑ +$2.00 on August 14 → $0.00 on August 17 → −$15.00 on August 18 → −$20.50 on August 19. The contango WIDENED on the named delivery date itself.
  • ⚑ Stocks unchanged for a second consecutive session. Yesterday this brief wrote that one unchanged day is not a trend and two is. It is two.
  • ⊘ Warrant-concentration reporting (carried, secondary sources only, and now stale): one participant at 80–90% of warranted stocks; Russian brands approximately 95% of available metal; off-warrant stocks 85,645 mt; one short position of 155,000–225,000 mt; an Asian Q2 physical premium of $350–353/mt. The circulating cancelled-warrant figures (11,750 mt against 244,650 mt live) sum to 256,400 mt, which is the AUGUST 7 stock figure and remains an early-August caliber.
  • ⚑ The conclusion this brief draws: the delivery date has passed with no visible squeeze and with the curve deeper in contango after it than before. That thesis should be marked down, not merely doubted (this is interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ The Thursday social print is due today and had not published at writing

  • ⚑ SMM social ingot inventory: the Thursday print is due TODAY, August 20, and had not published at writing. The series stands at the Monday August 17 print of 886,000 mt. Monday series 917,000 → 886,000; Thursday series 953,000 → 933,000 → 898,000.
  • ⊘ SMM’s three-region daily ingot inventory for August 19 was not retrievable at writing; the August 18 print is carried at 707,000 mt (Guangdong 173,000, Wuxi 323,000, Gongyi 211,000), +1,000 mt.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged for a second consecutive session.
  • ⚑ NEW THIS EDITION: Japan’s three major ports held 201,000 mt at end-July, described as the LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2010.
  • ⚑ NEW THIS EDITION: aluminium billet inventory on August 19 reads Guangdong 67,500 mt and Wuxi 26,000 mt, a two-region total of 93,500 mt.
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory, carried: 25,500 mt, +1,500 w/w — ending ten consecutive weeks of destocking that removed 38,900 mt.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Yesterday this brief observed that three of the inventory column’s four series were flat or building, with only the social print still drawing on a reading two days old. That reading is now three days old and the print that settles it lands within hours (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Two unchanged LME days constitute a flattening rather than single-day noise, by the test this brief set for itself yesterday. But it must be stated alongside the Japanese port figure at its lowest since April 2010: visible offshore tightness has not disappeared — it has stopped expressing itself through daily changes in LME warrants (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ If today’s Thursday print draws again, the ‘three series flat’ reading should be treated as caliber difference and the structural-turn call withdrawn. If it builds, the August 13–17 destocking should be re-read as the tail of this cycle (this is interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The Fed: hawkish minutes, dovish pricing

  • ⚑ The July 28–29 FOMC minutes were released August 19 at 14:00 ET and were HAWKISH. The July vote was 9–3 to hold at 3.50–3.75%, with Cleveland’s Beth M. Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Dallas’s Lorie K. Logan each preferring a quarter-point increase.
  • ⚑ The minutes record participants saying that ‘policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline’, and note that some officials believed current financial conditions might not be tight enough to bring inflation back to 2%.
  • ⊘ Bloomberg reports that Kansas City’s Jeffrey R. Schmid and St. Louis’s Alberto G. Musalem, neither voting in July, subsequently indicated they would have backed an increase.
  • ⚑ AND THE MARKET PRICED THE OTHER WAY. Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 19 at 20:35 EDT — AFTER the release: September 16 hold 69.4%, HIKE to 3.75–4.00% 30.6%, cut 0%; futures 96.335.
  • ⚑ That 30.6% is below the 33.3% carried yesterday and the 35.3% of August 17 — a second consecutive decline, and this one occurred after a hawkish document.
  • October 28: hold 56.6%, one hike 37.7%, two hikes 5.6% (futures 96.285; from 52.9/40.2/6.9). December 9: 3.50–3.75% 35.7%, 3.75–4.00% 44.7%, 4.00–4.25% 17.5%, 4.25–4.50% 2.1% (futures 96.175) — implying roughly 64.3% odds of at least one hike by December, from 65.4% (this is a derivation).
  • Jackson Hole runs August 27–29, with Chair Warsh’s first address as Chair on Friday August 28.

⚑ The dollar and energy: the dollar broke 99

  • ⚑ The dollar index at 98.853 (August 20 stamp), +0.07% on the session; −2.29% over four weeks and +0.24% over twelve months. From the 99.40 carried on August 18, it has broken the round number.
  • ⚑ Yesterday this brief wrote that ‘the dollar’s three-session decline did not extend’ and ‘the direction has turned flat’. That is falsified: the decline resumed and took out a round number (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Brent: $91.93/bbl, +$0.31 (+0.34%); month +1.01%, year +35.85%; more than +3% on the week — a FIFTH consecutive higher session.

⚑ Geopolitics: Iran fires ballistic missiles at the UAE; the UAE cuts all trade with Iran

  • ⚑ The UAE Defence Ministry said on August 18 that Iran fired TWO BALLISTIC MISSILES toward the Gulf state, with assessments indicating the missiles targeted maritime traffic.
  • ⚑ On August 19 the UAE announced it had SUSPENDED ALL TRADE, COMMERCIAL EXCHANGE AND FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS WITH IRAN until further notice.
  • ⊘ Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei categorically rejected the claim that Iran launched a missile toward the UAE.
  • ⚑ The aluminium relevance: the UAE is EGA’s home country, and the Al Taweelah smelter was already damaged by a missile on March 28. ⊘ Secondary analysis puts the Middle East at roughly 9% of global smelting capacity and combined EGA/Alba disruption at 3–3.5 million mt, about 5% of global output.
  • The fee-free Hormuz transit window under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum lapsed around August 16; Hegseth has called the naval blockade indefinite; CENTCOM has redirected 59 commercial vessels since July 13 (carried).

China policy and data

  • ⚑ China’s August LPR is announced TODAY, August 20, and had NOT published at writing. The one-year rate stands at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%, both at record lows and unchanged for fourteen consecutive months as of July; consensus expects no change.
  • July activity data, carried and confirmed: industrial output +4.5% (consensus 4.8%); retail sales +0.6% (poll 1.5%); January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% (poll −6.0%); surveyed urban unemployment 5.2%; new-home prices −0.1% m/m and −3.2% y/y.
  • July financial data, carried: M2 +7.7%; outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion yuan against 12.87 trillion a year earlier.
  • US data, carried: July retail sales −0.6% m/m; University of Michigan August preliminary sentiment 51.0; July producer prices unchanged.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ Bullish for aluminium: September hike odds fell from 33.3% to 30.6% AFTER a hawkish document; the dollar broke below 99 to 98.853, −2.29% over four weeks; Brent posted a fifth consecutive higher session; and Iran’s missiles at the UAE, with the resulting trade suspension, are the first supply-risk item in weeks that moves TOWARD disruption rather than away from it.
  • ⚑ Bearish for aluminium: the minutes themselves were hawkish, with two additional non-voters saying they would have hiked, which leaves 30.6% room to rise if the data cooperate; nothing has revised China’s weak July lines; and if the LPR holds as expected, the monetary side offers no new offset to fixed-asset investment at −6.7%.
  • ⚑ The central macro observation of this edition: a hawkish document failed to lift hike pricing and was accompanied by the dollar breaking a round number. The market judged that document superseded by July retail sales at −0.6% and an August sentiment print of 51.0. That is the strongest single macro signal here (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Net reading: the macro column is upgraded from ‘neutral with a bearish tilt’ to ‘neutral with a bullish tilt’ — the first upgrade in several editions (this is interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Overseas supply: the direction turns back toward disruption for the first time in weeks

  • ⚑ New (see section 4): Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward the UAE on August 18; the UAE suspended all trade and financial dealings with Iran on August 19. The UAE is EGA’s home and Al Taweelah was already damaged on March 28.
  • ⊘ Secondary calibers: the Middle East is roughly 9% of global smelting capacity; combined EGA and Alba disruption is put at 3–3.5 million mt, approximately 5% of global output.
  • EGA’s Guinea bauxite settlement, carried: a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to state-owned Nimba Mining plus renewal of CBG supply contracts, allowing CBG to resume shipments to EGA’s UAE operations. ⊘ The same reporting says Hormuz disruption still prevents delivery and that the Al Taweelah SMELTER ‘could take a year to resume’, which conflicts with this brief’s carried line of 18% of capacity with full capacity expected in Q1 2027. Not reconciled.
  • Other overseas items, carried: Alunorte ramping back to full capacity (total lost output 100,000–120,000 mt; Q3 impact USD 75–100 million); Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support over ten years from 2029; Slovalco (Q4) and the Missouri smelter (year-end) pending restart.

Domestic supply and cost

  • July output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m on a 31-day caliber; month-end existing capacity approximately 46.29 million mt, flat m/m (carried).
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y and −1.4% m/m (carried).
  • Passive cuts in southwest China continue (carried).
  • ⚑ The cost reading is restated on the corrected SMM caliber: the alumina index at 2,683.43 sits 16.57 below August’s full-cost floor and 33.43 above the cash-cost ceiling. The prior edition’s statement that the industry had moved ‘materially closer to the cash-cost line’ does not hold on SMM’s own numbers (this is a derivation and interpretation).
  • Guinea first-half bauxite exports a record 114.8 million mt, +15% y/y; refinery bauxite stocks near 96 days (carried).

Downstream demand (carried, no new print)

  • CPCA July: passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y; internal-combustion retail 510,000 units, −41%; NEV retail 951,000 units, −3.9% with penetration 65.1%; NEV exports 540,000 units, +147.8%.
  • SMM July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%, −4.4 pp m/m, all seven sub-sectors contracting: foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, secondary alloy 37.6, sheet and strip 44.8, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire and cable 44.4, primary aluminium alloy 43.9.
  • Billet: July operating rate 58.3%, a year-to-date high, with an August forecast of approximately 56.9%; processing fees already below the industry average production cost.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ July casting-ingot output at −15.1% y/y remains the supply-side item that depends on no overseas event. Its standing changes character this edition: it is no longer the ONLY item, because the UAE missile strike is the first new development in weeks pointing toward disruption rather than its dismantling (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The symmetric statement this brief owes the reader: that item is currently geopolitical RISK, not confirmed lost output. Suspending UAE–Iran trade does not by itself reduce aluminium production. Its significance is that it returns EGA’s host country to the set of directly targeted places (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Yesterday’s judgement that ‘money moved from the metal to the raw material, on the short side’ was reversed within one session: alumina volume −43.6%, aluminium volume +33.7%. This brief withdraws the persistence implied by that reading (this is interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ Regional structure (August 19, SMM caliber)

  • ⚑ Foshan 23,780 (range 23,760–23,800), Hangzhou 23,700, Shanghai 23,670 (range 23,650–23,690), Wuxi 23,640, Zhongyuan 23,590.
  • ⚑ The Foshan-to-Zhongyuan spread is 190 yuan/mt, among the widest this brief has carried recently; South China quotes above both East and Central China (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Basis: a 20 premium against AL2609 and a 5 discount against AL2610.
  • ⊘ SMM’s August 19 spot midday commentary and transaction description were not retrievable at writing.

Sentiment indices (SMM, August 17, carried)

  • East China: shipment sentiment index 3.15 (+0.01 w/w); procurement sentiment index 3.40 (+0.06 w/w).
  • Central China: shipment sentiment index 3.09 (unchanged w/w); procurement sentiment index 2.90 (−0.07 w/w).
  • ⊘ Internal tension (carried): the East China procurement index rose 0.06 while the same article’s narrative says procurement sentiment fell. Both listed, not reconciled.

Interpretation: sentiment reading

  • Shipment willingness: neutral (carried from the August 17 caliber).
  • Purchasing willingness: ⚑ one observable indirect piece of evidence appears this edition — on a day when the futures broke a key level and fell 1.17%, the spot fell only 0.96% and the basis flipped back to a premium. That shape usually corresponds to downstream buying the dip rather than standing aside (this is interpretation, not a direct SMM caliber).
  • ⚑ Composite reading: the spot column moves from yesterday’s ‘following down harder than the futures’ to ‘following down LESS than the futures, with the basis back at a premium’. It is the clearest item in this edition pointing against the technical break (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ SMM’s A00 quotation around 11:00 today tests two things: whether the 20 premium survives, and whether the spot catches down after the futures stabilise (this is interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ The spot fell LESS than the paper: A00 −230 (−0.96%) against AL2609’s −285 (−1.19%), flipping the basis from a discount back to a 20 PREMIUM against the 09 contract.
  • ⚑ September hike odds fell from 33.3% to 30.6% AFTER hawkish minutes, with cut odds still 0% — the market judged the document superseded.
  • ⚑ The dollar index broke below 99 to 98.853, −2.29% over four weeks; this brief’s judgement yesterday that the decline had turned flat is falsified.
  • ⚑ Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward the UAE on August 18; the UAE suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran on August 19. ⊘ The UAE is EGA’s home and Al Taweelah is already missile-damaged.
  • ⚑ ⊘ Secondary calibers put the Middle East at roughly 9% of global smelting capacity and combined EGA/Alba disruption at 3–3.5 million mt.
  • ⚑ Brent at $91.93 for a fifth consecutive higher session, more than +3% on the week and +35.85% on the year.
  • ⚑ The alumina caliber correction: SMM’s own index at 2,683.43 has fallen about 6 yuan in three sessions, so the cost channel’s decline is far smaller than the prior aggregator figure implied.
  • ⚑ Money returned from the raw material to the metal: aluminium volume +33.7% to 367,560; alumina volume −43.6% to 173,376.
  • ⚑ NEW: Japan’s three major ports at 201,000 mt end-July, the lowest since April 2010 — visible offshore tightness has not disappeared.
  • ⚑ The SHFE open-interest fall is a roll, not liquidation: AL2609 −30,840 against +23,242 across the 10, 11 and 12, on volume up a third (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The close still holds MA60 (23,622.00) by 53.00 and MA30 (23,551.17) by 123.83; the low pierced MA60 by two points but recovered.
  • ⚑ LME stocks at 246,925 mt remain in a historically lean range, and SMM’s $3,180 band floor is only $11.50 below cash.
  • ⚑ The theoretical ADC12-over-AD2610 premium widens to 1,260 — the futures fell a second day and the secondary spot did not follow.
  • July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, directly reducing warehouse-eligible units, and dependent on no overseas event.
  • July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%, continuing to squeeze ingot casting.
  • Existing capacity at 46.29 million mt is flat m/m and close to the ceiling; passive cuts in southwest China continue.
  • Billet social and in-factory inventories both low versus recent years; August imported-bauxite shipments are expected to shrink in the rainy season.
  • ⊘ Asian Q2 physical premium at $350–353/mt, described as an eleven-year high (carried, secondary source).

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ The 23,795 floor broke: AL2610’s low of 23,620 is 175 through it and the close of 23,675 sits 120 beneath. This brief stated in advance that breaking it converts the structure from correction to trend change.
  • ⚑ 23,675 is the lowest main-contract close since August 3 and retraces 94.6% of the August advance (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ MA20 (23,756.00) is lost by 81.00; the close is 253.00 below MA5 and 344.00 below MA10.
  • ⚑ The day’s low of 23,620 pierced MA60 (23,622.00) by 2.00 — the last average was broken intraday.
  • ⚑ LME cash at $3,191.50 sits $0.19 below MA40 ($3,191.69) and is now below every one of this brief’s five LME averages.
  • ⚑ The LME contango widened from −$15.00 to −$20.50: the market pays MORE to defer holding metal.
  • ⚑ LME stocks printed 246,925 mt unchanged for a second consecutive session — a flattening by the test this brief set yesterday.
  • ⚑ The named August 19 delivery test passed with no visible squeeze and with the curve deeper in contango after it than before; the warrant-concentration thesis should be marked down (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ LME cash is −$181.50 (−5.38%) from the August 11 high of $3,373.00.
  • ⚑ SHFE fell HARDER than the LME this session (−1.17% against −0.85%), pulling the ratio back from 7.442 to 7.418 — Tuesday’s un-absorbed offshore decline has been paid (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Cast alloy AD2610 closed 22,940, surrendering MA40 (23,047.00) by 107.00 and now below ALL SIX averages.
  • ⚑ Alumina AO2610 closed 2,668, below all six averages for a second session; SMM’s spot index at 2,683.43 is still 16.57 below the full-cost floor.
  • ⚑ Three of the inventory column’s four series remain flat or building (LME unchanged two days, three-region +1,000, cast alloy +1,500); the social print that settles it had not published at writing.
  • ⚑ The FOMC minutes were hawkish on their face: 9–3, three dissenters wanting a hike, ‘tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline’, and ⊘ two non-voters who say they would have hiked. The 30.6% has room to rise.
  • ⚑ The UAE item is currently geopolitical risk, not confirmed lost output; suspending UAE–Iran trade does not by itself reduce aluminium production (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ The close is only 75 points above SMM’s band floor of 23,600; below that, only MA30 at 23,551.17 and MA40 at 23,364.00 remain in the sequence.
  • ⚑ The price sits at the 44.0th percentile of a twenty-session window recomputed this edition (not directly comparable to the prior edition’s caliber), with the August advance almost fully surrendered (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics and Westmetall disagree in DIRECTION on August 19 (+0.46% against −0.85%), the widest such split this cycle, adding caliber uncertainty.
  • China’s July industrial output +4.5%, retail sales +0.6% and January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% all missed (carried).
  • July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y; aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; the billet operating rate is forecast down to 56.9% in August (carried).
  • China’s July outstanding yuan loans +5.1%, a record low; January–July new loans 10.38 trillion against 12.87 trillion a year earlier (carried).
  • If the LPR holds at 3.0%/3.5% as expected, the monetary side offers no new offset to fixed-asset investment at −6.7% (carried).
  • Alunorte ramping back to full, Tomago rescued, and EGA’s Guinea settlement restoring feedstock — the older overseas-disruption items continue to be dismantled (carried).
  • ⊘ SMM’s bands are unchanged at 23,600–24,450 and $3,180–3,330 — neither has been adjusted.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The technical break is complete — the August 14 low of 23,795 was taken out by 175 points, the close of 23,675 is the lowest since August 3 and gives back 94.6% of the August advance, MA20 is lost by 81.00, the day’s low pierced MA60 by two points, and the LME lost every one of its five averages by nineteen cents while the contango widened to −$20.50, stocks printed unchanged a second day and the named August 19 delivery test passed in silence — yet on the same session the spot fell LESS than the paper and flipped the basis back to a 20 premium, hike odds fell to 30.6% AFTER hawkish minutes, the dollar broke below 99 to 98.853, and Iran fired ballistic missiles at the UAE prompting a full suspension of UAE–Iran trade; so this is better read as a divergence in which the paper market completed a top while the physical and macro columns began arguing against it — a configuration that resolves at the extremes rather than the middle — with today’s social inventory print and LPR deciding which side does the resolving, and the downside sequence reading 23,622.00 (MA60) → 23,600 (SMM’s band floor) → 23,551.17 (MA30).

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ MA60 at 23,622.00. It is the last average not yet lost on a closing basis, held by only 53.00, and the August 19 low already traded beneath it. A close below it in either session puts all six averages behind the price, with the downside sequence 23,600 (SMM’s band floor, just 75 away) → 23,551.17 (MA30) → 23,364.00 (MA40) → 23,195 (the twenty-session close low). Upside sequence: 23,740 (Aug 19 settlement) → 23,756.00 (MA20, the first level to reclaim) → 23,795 (the broken floor, now resistance) → 23,928.00 (MA5) → 24,019.00 (MA10).
  • ⚑ SMM’s Thursday social inventory print today. It is the only domestic datum capable of adjudicating whether the inventory structure has turned. A further draw means the ‘three series flat’ reading should be treated as caliber difference and the structural call withdrawn; a build confirms August 13–17 as the tail of this cycle. Watch also whether the August 19 three-region daily figure fills in.
  • ⚑ China’s August LPR today, unpublished at writing. If the one-year holds at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%, the monetary side offers no new offset to fixed-asset investment at −6.7%. Any adjustment would be the first in over a year and would require a fresh read of the domestic policy slope.
  • ⚑ Whether LME cash reclaims MA40 ($3,191.69) and whether the contango narrows. Losing an average by nineteen cents is the most reversible kind of break; but a −$20.50 contango that WIDENED after the delivery date is the harder fact, and further widening would amount to a pricing rejection of the warrant-concentration thesis. Watch also whether stocks resume drawing — after two unchanged days, the third day’s direction is decisive.
  • ⚑ The UAE–Iran sequence. Specifically: whether further launches occur or energy and industrial facilities are targeted; whether the UAE’s trade suspension extends to third-party transshipment; and whether EGA issues any new statement on Al Taweelah’s operating status. This is the first item in weeks pointing toward supply disruption, and how far it materialises decides whether it belongs in a risk premium or in actual output (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ SMM’s A00 quotation and the basis around 11:00 today. The core question is whether the 20 premium against the 09 contract survives: if it holds or widens, ‘the spot declined to follow the break’ upgrades from a single-session shape to usable evidence; if it snaps back to a discount, August 19’s resilience should be read as quotation lag (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether the dollar holds below 99, and whether hike odds rise as the hawkish minutes are digested with a lag. The 30.6% was priced after the release and therefore contains the information; but two non-voters’ comments and the ‘tightening likely necessary’ language leave the probability two-way ahead of the next inflation print (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether alumina stabilises near its cost line and whether money keeps flowing back to the metal. AO2610 has been below all six averages for two sessions while SMM’s spot index sits only 16.57 below the full-cost floor. Watch whether the alumina −43.6% / aluminium +33.7% volume reversal persists.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, or data not retrievable at the time of writing.