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Weekend: The break was false as SHFE reclaims its 60-day average at 23,710. Social inventory falls to 875kt.周末版:破位为假突破,沪铝收复 60 日均线至 23,710;社会库存降至 87.5 万吨。

Saturday, August 22, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Saturday August 22 (Asia), covering the Friday August 21 session in full. ⊘ THE AUGUST 21 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to the August 24 trading day; neither the exchange file nor an SMM overnight report had published at writing, and it is carried as NOT RETRIEVABLE rather than estimated. NEW PRINTS CONFIRMED THIS EDITION. FIRST, SHFE, taken from the exchange's own August 21 daily file (which contains the August 20 night session and the August 21 day session): AL2610, main with open interest 267,438 (−2,599) — open 23,500, high 23,760, low 23,465, close 23,710, settlement 23,620, previous settlement 23,630; +80 on the previous settlement (+0.34%), −10 settlement-over-settlement (−0.04%), and +115 (+0.49%) close-over-close against August 20's 23,595; volume 175,287 (from 170,293, +2.9%). ⚑ THE STRUCTURE OF THE SESSION IS THE POINT: the low of 23,465 is BELOW August 20's low of 23,525 and sits just 5 points above August 3's 23,460 — the lowest intraday low in thirteen sessions — while the high of 23,760 EXCEEDS August 20's 23,720 and the close of 23,710 sits 245 above the low and 50 below the high. A lower low, a higher high and a close near the top is a bullish outside session (derivation). AL2609: open 23,500, high 23,750, low 23,470, close 23,695, settlement 23,620, previous settlement 23,615; +80 on the previous settlement, +110 (+0.47%) close-over-close; volume 60,450, open interest 116,527 (−11,891). AL2611 close 23,710, open interest 93,788 (+1,356); AL2612 close 23,680, open interest 60,741 (+1,270); AL2701 close 23,660, open interest 36,346 (−394); AL2702 close 23,670, open interest 12,337 (+1,901). Whole-product aluminium volume 295,207 (from 307,317, −3.9%), open interest 608,693 (−10,065). ALUMINA, same file: AO2610 main with open interest 284,910 (−26,473) — open 2,669, high 2,707, low 2,661, close 2,698, settlement 2,685, previous settlement 2,667; +31 on the previous settlement (+1.16%), +18 settlement-over-settlement, and +35 (+1.31%) close-over-close; volume 241,712. AO2609 close 2,691, settlement 2,681, open interest 70,715 (−12,013); AO2611 close 2,715, open interest 64,064 (−3,310); AO2701 close 2,749, open interest 82,366 (−783). Whole-product alumina volume 324,852 (from 303,904, +6.9%), open interest 532,941 (−42,449). ⚑ THE STRUCTURAL FACT FROM THE PRIOR EDITION SURVIVES BUT NARROWS: AO2610's open interest of 284,910 still EXCEEDS AL2610's 267,438, but by 17,472 lots against 41,346 the session before, while alumina's whole-product volume now runs 1.10× aluminium's against 1.01× (derivation). CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY, same file: AD2610 main with open interest 18,052 (−251) — open 22,900, high 23,105, low 22,820, close 23,060, settlement 22,955, previous settlement 22,970; +90 on the previous settlement (+0.39%), −15 settlement-over-settlement, and +115 (+0.50%) close-over-close; volume 6,611. AD2609 close 23,000, settlement 22,905, open interest 4,029 (−183). Whole-product volume 10,628, open interest 23,763 (−339). ⚑ The day file's open of 22,900 and low of 22,820 reconcile EXACTLY with the August 20 night-session figures carried in the prior edition, confirming that the exchange caliber embeds the night session (derivation). MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, recomputed from SHFE's own daily files using the highest-open-interest contract's close, 86 trading sessions from April 20 to August 21. ⚑ THE CALIBER IS VERIFIED FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE EDITION: recomputing the August 20 window reproduces the published aluminium MA5 23,829.00, MA10 23,997.50, MA20 23,768.50, MA30 23,569.00, MA40 23,382.25 and MA60 23,607.17; the published alumina MA5 2,681.00, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,679.30, MA30 2,686.50, MA40 2,702.53 and MA60 2,756.08; and the published cast-alloy MA5 23,067.00, MA10 23,306.00, MA20 23,262.75, MA30 23,167.50, MA40 23,056.00 and MA60 23,096.58 — EIGHTEEN averages across three products, all exact. The underlying aluminium closes are: July 20 23,010, July 21 23,160, July 22 23,190, July 23 23,345, July 24 23,225, July 27 23,195, July 28 23,220, July 29 23,455, July 30 23,625, July 31 23,630, August 3 23,640, August 4 23,810, August 5 23,785, August 6 23,810, August 7 24,040, August 10 24,165, August 11 24,250, August 12 24,285, August 13 24,090, August 14 23,885, August 17 24,035, August 18 23,955, August 19 23,675, August 20 23,595, August 21 23,710. SHFE aluminium MA5 23,794.00, MA10 23,964.50, MA20 23,792.75, MA30 23,590.83, MA40 23,400.00, MA60 23,597.58 — the close of 23,710 is 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20, but 119.17 ABOVE MA30, 310.00 ABOVE MA40 and 112.42 ABOVE MA60. ⚑ MA60 IS RECLAIMED. It was surrendered by 12.17 on August 20 and retaken by 112.42 on August 21; the price now sits above three of six averages against two of six (derivation). ⚑ The twenty-session window runs July 27 to August 21 with a close range of 23,195 (July 27) to 24,285 (August 12), placing 23,710 at the 47.2nd percentile, UP from 36.7. The sixty-session window runs May 29 to August 21 with a range of 22,370 (July 1) to 24,825 (June 2), placing the close at the 54.6th percentile, up from 49.9. ⚑ THE RETRACEMENT MATH REVERSES: 23,710 gives back 575 of the 645-point August 3-to-August 12 advance, or 89.1%, against 107.0% a session earlier, and the close now sits 70 ABOVE the August 3 starting close of 23,640 rather than 45 below it (derivation). ⚑ ON THE WEEK: AL2610 closed 23,710 against August 14's 23,885, −175 (−0.73%) — a SECOND consecutive weekly loss and a LARGER one than the prior week's −155 (derivation). Alumina MA5 2,681.40, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,678.70, MA30 2,685.93, MA40 2,699.95, MA60 2,753.25 — the close of 2,698 is ABOVE MA5 by 16.60, MA10 by 6.50, MA20 by 19.30 and MA30 by 12.07, and BELOW only MA40 by 1.95 and MA60 by 55.25. ⚑ FOUR OF SIX RECLAIMED IN ONE SESSION after three consecutive sessions below all six, with the twenty-session percentile jumping from 39.6 to 72.6 (derivation). Cast alloy MA5 23,052.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,265.50, MA30 23,170.67, MA40 23,066.75, MA60 23,097.17 — the close of 23,060 RECLAIMS MA5 by 8.00 and misses MA40 by 6.75, with the twenty-session percentile rising from 0.7 to 17.0 (derivation). SECOND, LME (Westmetall official, new row): August 21 cash settlement $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%), three-month $3,244.00 (+$61.00, +1.92%). ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread is −$17.00 — the contango RE-WIDENED from −$1.00 on August 20, because the forward rose $61.00 against the cash's $45.00. The series now reads +$2.00 (August 14) → $0.00 (August 17) → −$15.00 (August 18) → −$20.50 (August 19) → −$1.00 (August 20) → −$17.00 (August 21). ⚑ Stocks 246,925 mt, UNCHANGED FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION; the series ran 254,900 (August 10) → 248,300 (August 14) → 246,925 (August 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21) — five identical prints. Cash is −$146.00 (−4.33%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00, from −$191.00. This brief's own LME averages (Westmetall cash settlements): MA5 $3,218.30, MA10 $3,262.65, MA20 $3,245.62, MA40 $3,194.51, MA60 $3,293.41 — cash at $3,227.00 RECLAIMS MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49, and remains below MA10 by $35.65, MA20 by $18.62 and MA60 by $66.41. ⚑ The LME caliber is verified EXACTLY: recomputing the August 20 window reproduces the published MA5 $3,222.50, MA10 $3,267.90, MA20 $3,243.03, MA40 $3,192.94 and MA60 $3,302.45 to the cent. ⚑ ON THE WEEK: cash closed $3,227.00 against August 14's $3,248.00, −$21.00 (−0.65%) — a second weekly loss but a SMALLER one than Shanghai's in percentage terms. ⚑ THE RATIO MOVED HARD: SHFE-to-LME fell from 7.415 to 7.347, the largest single-session compression this brief has recorded in August, because LME cash rose 1.41% against SHFE's 0.49% (derivation). ⊘ TradingEconomics carries aluminium at $3,248.75, +$61.25 (+1.92%), month +1.82%, year +23.88% on an August 21 stamp — which matches the Westmetall THREE-MONTH move to within $0.25 and confirms that the TradingEconomics series tracks the forward, not the cash; the two calibers are listed and, for the first time, RECONCILED in mechanism. THIRD, SPOT: ⚑ SMM's own regional transaction premia and discounts against AL2609 on August 21: SOUTH CHINA a PREMIUM of 160 yuan/mt, EAST CHINA PARITY at 0, CENTRAL CHINA a DISCOUNT of 60. Against August 20's South China +75 to +115, East China −20 to 0 and Central China −70 to −90, ALL THREE REGIONS IMPROVED ON THE SAME SESSION, for a third consecutive session of physical firmness (derivation). ⊘ THE ABSOLUTE A00 QUOTATION FOR AUGUST 21 WAS NOT RETRIEVABLE AT WRITING; the carried level is August 20's 23,600 yuan/mt (range 23,580–23,620). ⊘ Because SMM strikes the A00 quotation at 10:15 and the transaction premia are struck against the September contract across the session, the basis this brief has published on prior days cannot be computed for August 21 and is NOT estimated; readers should note that AL2609 closed 23,695 and East China transactions printed at parity to it, which is consistent with a spot level near 23,695 but is NOT the SMM quotation caliber (this is interpretation). ⊘ Daily sentiment indices for August 21 were not retrievable; the carried August 20 figures are East China shipment 3.2 and procurement 3.16, Central China shipment 3.1 and procurement 2.9. FOURTH, INVENTORY — ⚑ THE LEVEL THE PRIOR EDITION COULD NOT PUBLISH IS NOW CONFIRMED, AND IT IS UNAMBIGUOUS. SMM's Thursday August 20 domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory is 875,000 mt, −11,000 mt on Monday August 17 and −23,000 mt on the prior Thursday August 13. ⚑ THE FULL SERIES: 1,006,000 mt (July 23) → 979,000 (July 27) → 953,000 (July 30) → 958,000 (August 3) → 933,000 (August 6) → 917,000 (August 10) → 898,000 (August 13) → 886,000 (August 17) → 875,000 (August 20). Apart from the single 5,000 mt build on August 3 the series destocks throughout, and it is −83,000 mt from the August 3 level across five prints and −131,000 mt from July 23 (derivation). ⊘ A SECOND CALIBER CIRCULATED THIS WEEK at 849,000 mt with a 27,000 mt weekly draw; it is not SMM's social series, it is listed and it is NOT reconciled. BILLET: SMM's August 20 mainstream-consumption-area aluminium billet inventory is 143,000 mt, +500 mt on Monday. ⊘ This is NOT comparable with the 93,500 mt two-region billet caliber carried on August 19; the two are listed and not reconciled. WEEKLY WITHDRAWALS: 123,200 mt for August 10–16, −1,000 mt on the prior week. LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged a fourth day. Carried: cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt, +2,500 mt w/w, a second week of buildup with the pace widening; secondary aluminium alloy ingot inventory 10,275 mt; registered cast alloy warrants 19,998 mt; Japan's three major ports at 201,000 mt at end-July, the lowest since April 2010. FIFTH, MACRO — ⚑ THE HIKE-ODDS CLIMB EXTENDED TO A THIRD SESSION AND THE DOLLAR STILL DID NOT FOLLOW. Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 21 at 20:35 EDT, prices the September 16 FOMC at 61.0% hold and 39.0% HIKE to 3.75–4.00%, off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.325 — ABOVE the 35.3% of August 20 and the 30.6% of August 19, a cumulative +8.4 percentage points in three sessions. October 28: hold 47.0%, one hike 44.1%, two hikes 9.0%, off futures at 96.265 (from 51.3/41.4/7.3) — ⚑ THE OCTOBER HOLD HAS FALLEN BELOW 50% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS SEQUENCE. December 9: 3.50–3.75% 28.9%, 3.75–4.00% 45.2%, 4.00–4.25% 22.5%, 4.25–4.50% 3.5%, off futures at 96.140 — implying approximately 71.1% odds of at least one hike by December, from 65.6% (derivation). Jackson Hole runs AUGUST 27–29, with Chair Warsh's first address as Chair on Friday August 28. DOLLAR: the index reads 98.839, −0.06% on the session, month −2.26%, year +1.15% — a THIRD consecutive session below 99, and the third consecutive session in which rising hike odds failed to lift it (derivation). ENERGY: Brent $93.87, +0.10% on the session, month −0.21%, year +38.59%, and confirmed as a SECOND consecutive weekly gain of more than 5%. Carried: US initial jobless claims 206,000 for the week ending August 15, below the 210,000 consensus. CHINA POLICY, CARRIED: the August LPR held at 3.00% and 3.50% for a fifteenth consecutive month. GEOPOLITICS, CARRIED: the UAE's suspension of all trade, commercial exchange and financial transactions with Iran remains in force; ⊘ Lloyd's List Intelligence reports 60 Hormuz transits for August 3–9 against 34 and 35 in the two weeks after the transit memorandum lapsed. SIXTH, ⚑ GLOBAL SUPPLY — THE FIRST HARD QUANTIFICATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST DISRUPTION. The International Aluminium Institute reports GLOBAL July primary aluminium production of 6.16 million mt, −1.7% y/y, and GULF REGION July production of 293,000 mt against 523,000 mt a year earlier, −44% y/y — a loss of 230,000 mt in a single month from one region. The two smelters attacked in late March represent approximately 9% of global capacity. EGA states that Al Taweelah is recovering faster than anticipated, ⊘ while the 'could take up to a year to resume' line remains on the record alongside the Q1 2027 full-capacity guidance; the two are listed and NOT reconciled. Carried: EGA H1 production 602,000 t (−47% y/y) and sales 939,000 t (−32% y/y) with approximately $400 million of Al Taweelah restoration capex; Alunorte ramping back to full; Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support from 2029; Slovalco and the Missouri smelter pending restart; Nanshan's Indonesian 250,000 mt/year project under construction. SEVENTH, ALUMINA — ⚑ CHINA'S JULY OUTPUT IS NEW: the National Bureau of Statistics puts July alumina production at 7.835 million mt, +5.2% y/y. SMM's July national weighted-average FULL COST is 2,718 yuan/mt. ⊘ A domestic operating-capacity figure of 'approaching 97 million mt/year' circulated on August 21 against the 88.01 million mt/year operating capacity carried from SMM's weekly review; the two are different calibers, are listed, and are NOT reconciled. ⊘ The SMM alumina index for August 21 was not retrievable at writing; the carried level is 2,681.62 yuan/mt (August 20), with regional spot at Shandong 2,650–2,720, Henan 2,690–2,750, Shanxi 2,680–2,740, Guangxi 2,580–2,640 and Guizhou 2,720–2,790. Carried ex-China: $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (August 20 trade), with SMM's FOB Western Australia $360 equating to approximately 3,066.17 yuan/mt at Chinese ports, 384.55 yuan above the domestic index. Market commentary on August 21 names 2,600 yuan as the level to watch beneath the futures. Carried: national weekly operating rate flat at 74.33%, weekly production 1.688 million mt, total China alumina stocks 7.245 million mt (−30,000 w/w). EIGHTH, DOWNSTREAM — ⚑ NEW: the aluminium processing operating rate is 60.0%, +0.1 percentage point w/w. ⚑ SOUTH-EAST ASIAN SECONDARY, NEW AND BEARISH: SMM's August 21 survey has Malaysian ADC12 domestic at MYR 12.45/kg (≈$3,082/mt), −0.40% w/w, and FOB Port Klang at $3,090/mt, −0.48%; Thai ADC12 domestic at THB 102.5/kg (≈$3,137/mt), −0.97%, and FOB Laem Chabang at approximately $3,070/mt, −0.16%, with export offers at $3,050–3,090/mt. Regional scrap fell harder: Malaysian Talon MYR 13,250/mt (−3.64% w/w), Tense $2,650/mt (−4.50%), UBC MYR 10,125/mt (+0.75%); Thai Talon THB 109,000/mt (−1.36%), UBC THB 82,000/mt (−2.38%). SMM attributes the weakness to the regional seasonal lull with automotive and die-casting orders recovering slowly, notes Thai natural gas costs up approximately 40–50% raising production expenses, and flags African alloy ingots at $2,850/mt undercutting regional prices. POLICY, NEW: domestic compliance checks on the illegal operation of capacity slated for elimination are under way, which market commentary expects to reduce domestic supply. Carried: July output +1.6% y/y; month-end capacity approximately 46.29 million mt; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2%; SMM's warning that export demand will weaken gradually; PV frame rates ticking up on front-loaded US orders ahead of December tariffs; CPCA July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y with NEV exports +147.8%; July industrial output +4.5%, retail sales +0.6%, January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%, new-home prices −3.2% y/y. ⚑ SMM'S FORECAST BANDS, CUT ON AUGUST 20 AND CARRIED: SHFE most-traded 23,200–24,000 and LME $3,150–3,250. The August 21 close of 23,710 sits 510 above the band floor and 290 below its ceiling; LME cash at $3,227.00 sits $23 BELOW its own band ceiling, having been $32 above the floor a session earlier (derivation).
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE BREAK WAS FALSE — MA60 RECLAIMED BY 112.42 Close 23,710 against MA60 23,597.58. Lost by 12.17 on Thursday, retaken by 112.42 on Friday. Yesterday's watchlist named exactly this test
⚑ A BULLISH OUTSIDE SESSION Low 23,465 BELOW Thursday's 23,525 and just 5 above the Aug 3 low; high 23,760 ABOVE Thursday's 23,720; close 245 off the low
⚑ THE 107% ROUND TRIP IS UNDONE Retracement falls from 107.0% to 89.1%. The close is now 70 ABOVE the Aug 3 launch point of 23,640, not 45 below (derivation)
AL2610 23,710, +115 (+0.49%) close-over-close +80 on the previous settlement. Volume 175,287 (+2.9%), open interest 267,438 (−2,599). Twenty-session percentile 47.2, from 36.7
But still below MA5, MA10 and MA20 84.00 under MA5 (23,794.00), 254.50 under MA10 (23,964.50), 82.75 under MA20 (23,792.75). Three of six reclaimed, three still above
⚑ ALL THREE REGIONS IMPROVED, THIRD STRAIGHT SESSION South China +160 (from +75/+115), East China PARITY at 0 (from −20/0), Central China −60 (from −70/−90). Same direction, same day
⚑ SOCIAL INVENTORY 875,000 mt — THE LEVEL IS CONFIRMED −11,000 on Monday, −23,000 on the prior Thursday. The prior edition could publish the direction but not the level
⚑ THE SERIES SETTLES THE ARGUMENT: 1,006 → 875 Jul 23 1,006 → 979 → 953 → 958 (Aug 3) → 933 → 917 → 898 → 886 → 875. One 5kt build, destocking either side. −83kt from Aug 3
⚑ LME CASH $3,227.00, +$45.00 (+1.41%) Reclaims MA5 ($3,218.30) by $8.70 and MA40 ($3,194.51) by $32.49 after sitting below all five. −4.33% from the Aug 11 high, from −5.66%
⚑ THE CONTANGO RE-WIDENS TO −$17.00 From −$1.00. The 3M rose $61.00 against the cash's $45.00 — the forward led this time, the exact mirror of Thursday
⚑ LME STOCKS UNCHANGED A FOURTH DAY 246,925 mt on Aug 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 — five identical prints. The 35-day draw remains stalled
⚑ THE SHFE-LME RATIO FALLS 7.415 → 7.347 LME cash +1.41% against SHFE +0.49%. The largest single-session compression this brief has recorded in August (derivation)
⚑ HIKE ODDS RISE A THIRD SESSION TO 39.0% 30.6% → 35.3% → 39.0%, +8.4pp in three sessions. October's hold drops below 50% to 47.0%. December: 71.1% for at least one
⚑ AND THE DOLLAR STILL WILL NOT RALLY — 98.839 Third session below 99. Month −2.26%. Three consecutive sessions of rising hike odds with no currency response
⚑ IAI: GULF JULY OUTPUT −44% TO 293,000 mt From 523,000 mt. Global July primary output 6.16 mt, −1.7% y/y. The first hard quantification of the Middle East loss in a primary series
⚑ ALUMINA RECLAIMS FOUR OF SIX AVERAGES IN A DAY AO2610 2,698, +35 (+1.31%). Above MA5, MA10, MA20 and MA30; misses MA40 by just 1.95. Percentile 39.6 → 72.6
China's July alumina output 7.835 mt, +5.2% y/y NBS caliber, new this edition. July national weighted-average full cost 2,718 yuan/mt. The surplus is still being produced
Alumina's main contract still out-opens the metal's AO2610 OI 284,910 vs AL2610's 267,438 — but the gap narrows from 41,346 to 17,472. Volumes now 1.10×, from 1.01×
⚑ Cast alloy reclaims MA5 by 8.00 AD2610 23,060, +115 (+0.50%). Misses MA40 by 6.75. Percentile 0.7 → 17.0. The day's low of 22,820 matches the prior night's low exactly
⚑ South-East Asian ADC12 falls again Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090 (−0.48% w/w), Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070 (−0.16%). African ingots at $2,850 undercut the region
Thai gas costs +40–50% squeeze regional secondary Cost up, price down. Regional scrap fell harder than ADC12: Malaysian Tense −4.50% w/w, Talon −3.64%
Aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%, +0.1pp A marginal improvement, not a turn. Billet inventory 143,000 mt on SMM's mainstream-area caliber, +500 mt on Monday
Weekly warehouse withdrawals 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w August 10–16. Outflows are flat while inventory falls — the draw is being led by restrained arrivals, not by surging consumption
⚑ Compliance checks on capacity slated for elimination Domestic policy checks on capacity operating in violation are under way; market commentary expects a reduction in domestic supply
On the week: SHFE −175 (−0.73%), LME −$21 (−0.65%) A second consecutive weekly loss for both, and a larger one than the prior week's −155 for SHFE. Alumina +2 on the week; cast alloy −75
Brent $93.87 — second straight +5% week confirmed +0.10% on the session, month −0.21%, year +38.59%. Cost-side and risk-side positive for aluminium
⚑ TradingEconomics is now RECONCILED, not merely listed $3,248.75, +$61.25 (+1.92%) matches Westmetall's 3M move to $0.25. The series tracks the forward, not the cash — mechanism identified
⚑ MA CALIBER VERIFIED A SECOND EDITION RUNNING Recomputing Aug 20 reproduces EIGHTEEN SHFE averages across three products and ALL FIVE LME averages, exactly
⊘ The Friday night session is NOT carried It belongs to the August 24 trading day; neither the exchange file nor an SMM overnight report had published. Not retrievable, not estimated
⊘ A00's absolute August 21 quotation was not retrievable Carried at Aug 20's 23,600. The basis is therefore NOT computed this edition rather than estimated

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期为周末版,写于 8月22日(周六)上午,完整覆盖 8月21日(周五)交易日。
  • ⊘ 8月21日夜盘(周五 21:00 至周六 01:00)归属 8月24日交易日;写稿时上期所日行情文件与 SMM《隔夜行情》均未发布,本期按「未取得」载入,不作估计。
  • ⚑ 口径验证(连续第二期):以上期所原始日行情文件重算 8月20日窗口,可精确复现三个品种全部十八条已公布均线,以及全部五条伦铝均线。

⚑ 沪铝:破位被证伪,MA60 以 112.42 元收复

  • ⚑ AL2610(主力,持仓 267,438 手,−2,599):开 23,500,高 23,760,低 23,465,收 23,710,结算 23,620,前结算 23,630;较前结算价 +80(+0.34%),结算对结算 −10(−0.04%),收盘对收盘较 8月20日的 23,595 上涨 115 元(+0.49%);成交 175,287 手(前值 170,293,+2.9%)。
  • ⚑ 本场的结构才是要点:当日低点 23,465 低于 8月20日的 23,525,且仅高出 8月3日低点 23,460 五元,为十三个交易日以来最低盘中低点;而当日高点 23,760 又高于 8月20日的 23,720;收盘价高于低点 245 元、低于高点 50 元。低点更低、高点更高、收盘靠近上沿——这是标准的看涨外包线(此为推算)。
  • AL2609:开 23,500,高 23,750,低 23,470,收 23,695,结算 23,620;较前结算价 +80,收盘对收盘 +110(+0.47%);成交 60,450 手,持仓 116,527 手(−11,891)。
  • AL2611 收 23,710,持仓 93,788 手(+1,356);AL2612 收 23,680,持仓 60,741 手(+1,270);AL2701 收 23,660,持仓 36,346 手(−394);AL2702 收 23,670,持仓 12,337 手(+1,901)。
  • 品种合计:成交 295,207 手(前值 307,317,−3.9%),持仓 608,693 手(−10,065)。

⚑ 均线:六条中收复三条,但上方三条并未收复

  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(至 8月21日,86 个交易日):MA5 23,794.00、MA10 23,964.50、MA20 23,792.75、MA30 23,590.83、MA40 23,400.00、MA60 23,597.58。
  • ⚑ 收盘 23,710:低于 MA5 84.00 元、低于 MA10 254.50 元、低于 MA20 82.75 元;但高于 MA30 119.17 元、高于 MA40 310.00 元、高于 MA60 112.42 元。
  • ⚑ MA60 已收复。8月20日以 12.17 元交出,8月21日以 112.42 元收回;价格现位于六条均线中三条之上(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 上期关注清单第一条原文为「若日盘或夜盘收回并站稳,则『破位』可降格为『假突破』」。条件已达成,本期据此将破位降格。
  • ⚑ 20 个交易日窗口:7月27日–8月21日,收盘区间 23,195(7月27日)–24,285(8月12日),23,710 处于 47.2% 分位(前值 36.7)。60 个交易日窗口:5月29日–8月21日,区间 22,370–24,825,分位 54.6%(前值 49.9)。
  • ⚑ 回撤算式反转:23,710 回吐 8月3日至 8月12日 645 点涨幅中的 575 点,即 89.1%(前值 107.0%),收盘价由「低于 8月3日起点 45 元」变为高出 70 元(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 周度:AL2610 收 23,710,对照 8月14日的 23,885,周内 −175 元(−0.73%)——连续第二周下跌,且跌幅大于上一周的 −155 元(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 底层收盘价(主力=持仓最大合约):7月20日 23,010、7月21日 23,160、7月22日 23,190、7月23日 23,345、7月24日 23,225、7月27日 23,195、7月28日 23,220、7月29日 23,455、7月30日 23,625、7月31日 23,630、8月3日 23,640、8月4日 23,810、8月5日 23,785、8月6日 23,810、8月7日 24,040、8月10日 24,165、8月11日 24,250、8月12日 24,285、8月13日 24,090、8月14日 23,885、8月17日 24,035、8月18日 23,955、8月19日 23,675、8月20日 23,595、8月21日 23,710。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:氧化铝一日收复四条均线

  • AO2610(主力,持仓 284,910 手,−26,473):开 2,669,高 2,707,低 2,661,收 2,698,结算 2,685,前结算 2,667;较前结算价 +31(+1.16%),结算对结算 +18,收盘对收盘 +35(+1.31%);成交 241,712 手。AO2609 收 2,691,结算 2,681,持仓 70,715 手(−12,013);AO2611 收 2,715,持仓 64,064 手(−3,310);AO2701 收 2,749,持仓 82,366 手(−783)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝品种合计:成交 324,852 手(前值 303,904,+6.9%),持仓 532,941 手(−42,449)。
  • ⚑ 上期的结构性事实延续但收窄:AO2610 持仓 284,910 手仍高于 AL2610 的 267,438 手,但差额由 41,346 手降至 17,472 手;氧化铝成交量对沪铝的比值由 1.01 倍升至 1.10 倍(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝均线:MA5 2,681.40、MA10 2,691.50、MA20 2,678.70、MA30 2,685.93、MA40 2,699.95、MA60 2,753.25。收盘 2,698 高于 MA5 16.60、高于 MA10 6.50、高于 MA20 19.30、高于 MA30 12.07,仅低于 MA40 1.95、低于 MA60 55.25——在连续三日低于全部六条后一次收复四条,20 日分位由 39.6% 跃升至 72.6%(此为推算)。
  • AD2610(主力,持仓 18,052 手,−251):开 22,900,高 23,105,低 22,820,收 23,060,结算 22,955,前结算 22,970;较前结算价 +90(+0.39%),结算对结算 −15,收盘对收盘 +115(+0.50%);成交 6,611 手。AD2609 收 23,000,结算 22,905,持仓 4,029 手(−183)。品种合计成交 10,628 手,持仓 23,763 手(−339)。
  • ⚑ 日行情文件的开盘 22,900 与低点 22,820,与上期载入的 8月20日夜盘数据完全一致,证实交易所口径已包含夜盘(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金均线:MA5 23,052.00、MA10 23,257.00、MA20 23,265.50、MA30 23,170.67、MA40 23,066.75、MA60 23,097.17。收盘 23,060 收复 MA5(高出 8.00),距 MA40 仅差 6.75;20 日分位由 0.7% 升至 17.0%(此为推算)。

⚑ 伦铝:现货收复 MA5 与 MA40,contango 重新走阔至 −17.00 美元

  • ⚑ Westmetall 官方口径:8月21日现货结算 3,227.00 美元(+45.00,+1.41%),三个月 3,244.00 美元(+61.00,+1.92%)。
  • ⚑ 现货对三个月价差 −17.00 美元——contango 由 8月20日的 −1.00 美元重新走阔,因远月涨 61.00 美元而近月涨 45.00 美元。序列:+2.00(8月14日)→ 0.00(8月17日)→ −15.00(8月18日)→ −20.50(8月19日)→ −1.00(8月20日)→ −17.00(8月21日)。
  • ⚑ 库存 246,925 吨,连续第四个交易日零变动;8月17、18、19、20、21 日为五个相同印记。
  • 现货价较 8月11日周期高点 3,373.00 美元累计下跌 146.00 美元(−4.33%),前值 −191.00 美元。
  • ⚑ 本简报自建伦铝均线:MA5 3,218.30、MA10 3,262.65、MA20 3,245.62、MA40 3,194.51、MA60 3,293.41 美元。现货 3,227.00 收复 MA5(高出 8.70)与 MA40(高出 32.49),仍低于 MA10 35.65、低于 MA20 18.62、低于 MA60 66.41。
  • ⚑ 周度:现货收 3,227.00 美元,对照 8月14日的 3,248.00 美元,周内 −21.00 美元(−0.65%)——连续第二周下跌,但按百分比小于沪铝。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比值大幅压缩:由 7.415 降至 7.347,为本简报 8 月所录得的最大单日压缩,因伦铝涨 1.41% 而沪铝仅涨 0.49%(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics 载 8月21日铝价 3,248.75 美元(+61.25,+1.92%),月度 +1.82%,年度 +23.88%——与 Westmetall 三个月合约的变动仅差 0.25 美元,证实该序列跟踪的是远月而非现货;两套口径本期首次在机制层面调和。

解读

  • 破位的证伪方式比证伪本身更值得记录。 市场先向下打穿周四低点六十点,触及 23,465(距 8月3日低点仅五元),然后收在距高点五十元处。这是「跌破失守均线后清扫止损却无卖盘接续」的形态。
  • 但收复是部分的,不宜过度解读。 MA5(23,794.00)与 MA20(23,792.75)几乎重合,连同已破的 8月14日低点 23,795,构成一条密集阻力带;而周线仍收跌 175 元。这是区间有底,不是趋势反转。
  • 沪伦比值的压缩说明周五的买盘来自海外而非国内。 这与国际铝业协会的产量印记方向一致,与国内库存印记无关。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:三地同日改善,为连续第三个交易日

  • ⚑ SMM 8月21日分地区成交(对 AL2609):华南升水 160 元/吨、华东平水 0 元、华中贴水 60 元。
  • ⚑ 对照 8月20日的华南 +75 至 +115、华东 −20 至 0、华中 −70 至 −90:三地在同一交易日全部改善,且华南升水为本轮所录得最高(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 8月21日 A00 绝对报价写稿时未取得,延续载入 8月20日的 23,600 元/吨(区间 23,580–23,620)。
  • ⊘ 因 SMM 于 10:15 定 A00 报价,而分地区成交升贴水为全日对 09 合约的成交口径,本期无法计算此前各期所载的基差,故不作估计。读者可参照:AL2609 收 23,695,而华东成交为平水,与现货水平接近 23,695 相一致,但这并非 SMM 报价口径(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 8月21日情绪指数未取得;延续载入 8月20日数据:华东出货 3.2、采购 3.16;华中出货 3.1、采购 2.9。

氧化铝:盘面与金属同步反转,国内产量继续增长

  • ⚑ 新增:国家统计局口径,中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%。
  • ⚑ SMM 口径:7 月全国氧化铝加权平均完全成本 2,718 元/吨。
  • ⊘ 8月21日流传的国内氧化铝运行产能「接近 9,700 万吨/年」与本简报延续载入的 SMM 周评运行产能 8,801 万吨/年为不同口径,列出但不予调和。
  • ⊘ 8月21日 SMM 氧化铝指数未取得;延续载入 8月20日的 2,681.62 元/吨,分地区现货:山东 2,650–2,720、河南 2,690–2,750、山西 2,680–2,740、广西 2,580–2,640、贵州 2,720–2,790。
  • 延续:海外 8月20日成交 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳;SMM 口径 FOB 西澳 360 美元折合中国主流港口约 3,066.17 元/吨,高于国内指数 384.55 元/吨。
  • 8月21日市场评论将 2,600 元列为盘面下方关注位。
  • 延续:全国周度开工率环比持平于 74.33%,周产量 168.8 万吨;全国氧化铝总库存 724.5 万吨(周环比 −3.0 万吨)。

⚑ 再生铝与合金:东南亚 ADC12 继续走弱

  • ⚑ SMM 8月21日东南亚调研:马来西亚 ADC12 国内 12.45 马币/公斤(约 3,082 美元/吨),周环比 −0.40%;FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元/吨,−0.48%。泰国 ADC12 国内 102.5 泰铢/公斤(约 3,137 美元/吨),−0.97%;FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元/吨,−0.16%;出口报盘 3,050–3,090 美元/吨。
  • ⚑ 区域废铝跌幅更大:马来西亚 Talon 13,250 马币/吨(−3.64%)、Tense 2,650 美元/吨(−4.50%)、UBC 10,125 马币/吨(+0.75%);泰国 Talon 109,000 泰铢/吨(−1.36%)、UBC 82,000 泰铢/吨(−2.38%)。
  • ⚑ SMM 归因:东南亚仍处传统淡季,汽车与压铸订单恢复缓慢;泰国天然气成本上涨约 40–50% 抬高生产费用;非洲合金锭以 2,850 美元/吨的低价冲击区域价格,但品质差异限制其在高要求场景的适用性。
  • 延续:铸造铝合金注册仓单 19,998 吨;7 月未锻轧铝合金出口同比 +135.1%。

解读

  • 三地同日同向改善,是本周现货最有力的证据。 8月19日现货跌幅小于盘面,8月20日华南惜售,8月21日三地齐升——三个交易日、同一方向,且第三日扩展至全部区域。
  • 华南 +160 元与华中 −60 元的区域价差约 220 元,已高于上期的 145–205 元。 沿海与内陆的分化仍在扩大,说明改善的驱动是沿海出口与流通货源偏紧,而非全国性需求回暖。
  • 东南亚 ADC12 与国内铸造铝合金指向相反。 国内 AD2610 收涨 115 元并收复 MA5,而东南亚现货继续下跌且成本上升——这是区域性挤压,不是全球性需求改善。

三 · 库存

⚑ 社会库存绝对水平已确认:87.5 万吨

  • ⚑ SMM 8月20日(周四)国内主流消费地电解铝锭社会库存 87.5 万吨,较周一(8月17日)减少 1.1 万吨,较上周四(8月13日)减少 2.3 万吨。
  • ⚑ 完整序列:100.6 万吨(7月23日)→ 97.9(7月27日)→ 95.3(7月30日)→ 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3(8月6日)→ 91.7(8月10日)→ 89.8(8月13日)→ 88.6(8月17日)→ 87.5(8月20日)。
  • ⚑ 除 8月3日单次累库 0.5 万吨外,序列两侧全为去库;较 8月3日水平五个印记累计去库 8.3 万吨,较 7月23日累计去库 13.1 万吨(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 本周另有一套 84.9 万吨、周环比去库 2.7 万吨的口径流传;该口径并非 SMM 社库序列,列出但不予调和。
  • ⚑ 铝棒:SMM 8月20日主流消费地铝棒库存 14.3 万吨,较周一增加 0.05 万吨。⊘ 该口径与 8月19日载入的两地合计 9.35 万吨不可直接比较,列出但不予调和。
  • ⚑ 出库量:8月10日至16日国内铝锭出库量共计 12.32 万吨,较前一周减少 0.1 万吨。
  • LME 库存 246,925 吨,连续第四个交易日零变动(五个相同印记)。
  • 延续:铸造铝合金锭社会库存 2.81 万吨(周环比 +0.25 万吨,连续第二周累库);再生铝合金锭库存 10,275 吨;日本三大港口 7 月末 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。

解读

  • 上期撤回「库存转向」判断时只有变动方向,现在有了水平,撤回被证明是正确的,甚至偏晚。 从 7月23日的 100.6 万吨到 8月20日的 87.5 万吨,九个印记中只有一次 0.5 万吨的累库。
  • 但对这轮去库必须给出诚实的限定:出库量在下降。 8月10–16 周出库 12.32 万吨、环比 −0.1 万吨。库存在降而出库不增,意味着去库由到货减少驱动,而非消费放量——供给端去库支撑价格,但不构成需求信号。
  • 铝棒库存微增 0.05 万吨,与铝锭去库方向相反。 铸锭量受铝水比例压制,而铝棒累库说明加工端消化并不顺畅。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美联储:加息概率连续第三日上行,10 月维持概率跌破 50%

  • ⚑ Investing.com 联储利率监测(8月21日 20:35 EDT 更新):9月16日 FOMC 维持概率 61.0%,加息至 3.75–4.00% 概率 39.0%,对应联邦基金期货 96.325。该 39.0% 高于 8月20日的 35.3% 与 8月19日的 30.6%,三个交易日累计上行 8.4 个百分点。
  • ⚑ 10月28日:维持 47.0%,加息一次 44.1%,加息两次 9.0%,对应期货 96.265(前值 51.3/41.4/7.3)——本轮首次跌破 50%。
  • 12月9日:3.50–3.75% 为 28.9%,3.75–4.00% 为 45.2%,4.00–4.25% 为 22.5%,4.25–4.50% 为 3.5%,对应期货 96.140——隐含年底前至少加息一次的概率约 71.1%,前值 65.6%(此为推算)。
  • 杰克逊霍尔年会 8月27–29日,沃什主席首次以主席身份发表演讲定于 8月28日(周五)。

⚑ 美元与能源:三个交易日鹰派重定价,美元三度收在 99 下方

  • ⚑ 美元指数报 98.839,日内 −0.06%,月度 −2.26%,年度 +1.15%——连续第三个交易日守在 99 下方,亦为连续第三个交易日在加息概率上行的同时未能反弹(此为推算)。
  • 布伦特原油 93.87 美元,日内 +0.10%,月度 −0.21%,年度 +38.59%;连续第二周涨幅超过 5% 已获确认。
  • 延续:截至 8月15日当周初请失业金 20.6 万人,低于市场预期的 21.0 万人。

中国政策与地缘

  • 延续:8 月 LPR 一年期 3.00%、五年期以上 3.50%,连续第十五个月不变。
  • ⚑ 新增:国内已对「淘汰产能违规运行」开展合规检查,市场评论预计对国内电解铝供应形成减量影响。
  • 延续:阿联酋自 8月19日起中止与伊朗的一切贸易、商业往来与金融交易,措施仍在实施。⊘ 劳氏情报:8月3日至9日霍尔木兹通行 60 艘次,高于备忘录失效后头两周的 34 与 35 艘次。
  • 延续:加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%;欧盟 CBAM 铝制品缺省值上调约 47.5% 并追溯至 2026 年 1月1日。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • 加息概率三个交易日累计上行 8.4 个百分点,而美元反而下跌,这是当前宏观栏最反常也最值得记录的一点。 要么汇率在贴现利率市场尚未反映的东西,要么美元空头仓位过重以致利率消息无法推动。两种解释对铝均不构成利空,但第二种脆弱。
  • 10 月维持概率跌破 50%,是本轮鹰派重定价的实质性台阶。 此前的上行集中在 9 月,现已外溢至 10 月与 12 月分布。
  • 杰克逊霍尔(8月27–29 日)与沃什 8月28日演讲是这条线索的结算窗口。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 全球供应:国际铝业协会首次硬性量化中东缺口

  • ⚑ 国际铝业协会:全球 7 月原铝产量 616 万吨,同比 −1.7%。
  • ⚑ 海湾地区 7 月原铝产量 29.3 万吨,上年同期 52.3 万吨,同比 −44%——单一区域单月减量 23.0 万吨。
  • 3 月下旬遇袭的两座电解铝厂合计约占全球产能 9%,出口通道亦受扰。
  • EGA 表示 Al Taweelah 恢复快于预期;⊘ 「或需一年方能恢复」的表述与「2027 年一季度恢复至事故前水平」并存,两者列出且不予调和。
  • 延续:EGA 上半年产量 60.2 万吨(同比 −47%)、销量 93.9 万吨(同比 −32%),Al Taweelah 复产资本开支约 4 亿美元;Alunorte 恢复满产;Tomago 获 25 亿澳元支持;Slovalco 与密苏里电解铝厂待复产;南山铝业印尼 25 万吨项目在建。

国内供应、成本与下游

  • ⚑ 新增:铝加工开工率 60.0%,环比上升 0.1 个百分点。
  • ⚑ 新增:中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;7 月氧化铝全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元/吨。
  • ⚑ 新增:国内对淘汰产能违规运行开展检查,预计对供应有减量影响。
  • 延续:7 月电解铝产量同比 +1.6%、环比 +3.5%;月末产能约 4,629 万吨;7 月铝水比例 78.3%,8 月预计 78.5%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%;7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个子行业全部收缩;西南地区被动减产延续。
  • 延续:7 月原铝净进口 15.4 万吨,环比 +19.4%、同比 −25.9%;7 月废铝进口约 12 万吨,同比 −25%,连续第四个月下滑;7 月铝土矿进口 1,904.4 万吨,环比 −6.3%。
  • 延续:SMM 明确警示国内外比价修复叠加在手订单消化,出口需求将逐步走弱;光伏边框开工率小幅回升属抢出口,美国关税 12 月生效。
  • 延续:乘联会 7 月乘用车零售 146.1 万辆,同比 −20.9%,新能源出口同比 +147.8%;7 月工业增加值 +4.5%,社零 +0.6%,1-7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%,新房价格同比 −3.2%。

解读

  • 海湾地区 29.3 万吨这一数字,是本期最重要的新增事实。 本简报此前数期载入的「EGA 与 Alba 合计扰动 300–350 万吨」均为二手估算并标注未获印证;现在原铝产量序列本身显示出了这个洞——方向已被印证,幅度仍需逐月累积。
  • 中国 7 月氧化铝产量 +5.2% 说明过剩仍在被制造。 开工率环比持平于 74.33%,减产尚未发生;完全成本 2,718 元与指数 2,681.62 元之间的负毛利尚不足以触发出清。
  • 淘汰产能合规检查是一条新的国内供应线索,但目前只有政策动作而无量化影响,应观察而非计入。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 8月21日:三地成交升贴水全部改善

  • ⚑ 华南(佛山):对 AL2609 升水 160 元/吨,较 8月20日的升水 75–115 元继续走强,为本轮所录得最高。
  • ⚑ 华东:对 AL2609 平水 0 元,较 8月20日的贴水 20 元至平水进一步收敛至区间上沿。
  • ⚑ 华中:对 AL2609 贴水 60 元,较 8月20日的贴水 70–90 元收敛。
  • ⚑ 三地在同一交易日同向改善,为连续第三个交易日出现现货强于盘面的证据(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 8月21日出货情绪指数与采购情绪指数未取得,延续载入 8月20日:华东出货 3.2、采购 3.16;华中出货 3.1、采购 2.9。
  • 延续(8月20日 SMM 华南日评原文):持货商普遍惜售,「降价让利几近消失」;贸易商「难以寻得低价货源」,最终「接受小幅升水而不迟疑」。

解读

  • 区域价差扩大至约 220 元(华南 +160 对华中 −60),高于上期的 145–205 元。 改善并非全国均质,沿海强于内陆。
  • 华东由贴水转为平水,是三地中最具指标意义的一步。 华东是流动性最深的市场,其贴水归零通常先于全国性升水结构。
  • 需要提醒的是,升贴水改善与出库量下降并存。 现货价差反映的是可流通货源的紧张,而非提货量的增长;两者并不矛盾,但前者更易反复。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

  • ⚑ MA60(23,597.58)以 112.42 元收复,上期的破位被降格为假突破。
  • ⚑ 看涨外包线形态:低点 23,465(低于前日且仅高于 8月3日低点五元)之后收在 23,710,高于前日高点。
  • ⚑ 回撤比例由 107.0% 回落至 89.1%,收盘价重新高于 8月3日起点 70 元。
  • ⚑ 20 日分位由 36.7% 升至 47.2%,60 日分位由 49.9% 升至 54.6%。
  • ⚑ 社会库存 87.5 万吨,较周一 −1.1 万吨、较上周四 −2.3 万吨;7月23日以来九个印记仅一次累库。
  • ⚑ 较 8月3日水平累计去库 8.3 万吨,较 7月23日累计去库 13.1 万吨。
  • ⚑ 三地成交升贴水同日全部改善:华南 +160、华东平水、华中 −60。
  • ⚑ 华南升水 160 元为本轮最高;华东贴水归零。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货 3,227.00 美元,+45.00(+1.41%),收复 MA5 与 MA40。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,925 吨为绝对低位,且连续五个印记零变动。
  • ⚑ 国际铝业协会:海湾地区 7 月产量同比 −44% 至 29.3 万吨,单月减量 23.0 万吨;全球 7 月产量同比 −1.7%。
  • ⚑ 全球供应缺口首次在原铝产量序列中获得硬性印证。
  • ⚑ 美元连续第三日守在 99 下方(98.839),且在加息概率累计上行 8.4 个百分点期间未能反弹。
  • ⚑ 布伦特连续第二周涨幅超 5%(93.87 美元),成本端与风险端双向偏多。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 一日收复四条均线(+35,+1.31%),成本端企稳。
  • ⚑ 国内对淘汰产能违规运行开展合规检查,预计对供应形成减量影响。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金 AD2610 收复 MA5(+115,+0.50%),20 日分位由 0.7% 升至 17.0%。
  • ⚑ 铝加工开工率 60.0%,环比 +0.1 个百分点。
  • ⚑ 阿联酋对伊朗全面中止贸易措施仍在实施,EGA 所在国地缘风险未解除。
  • 延续:7 月废铝进口同比 −25%(连续第四个月下滑),构成再生铝成本硬约束。
  • 延续:7 月铝水比例 78.3%、铸锭量同比 −15.1%,持续压制铝锭形成量。
  • 延续:日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
  • 延续:西南地区被动减产延续;EGA 上半年产量同比 −47%。
  • 延续:1-7 月铝材出口同比 +16.7%;7 月未锻轧铝合金出口同比 +135.1%。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 收盘 23,710 仍低于 MA5(23,794.00)84.00 元、低于 MA10(23,964.50)254.50 元、低于 MA20(23,792.75)82.75 元。
  • ⚑ MA5 与 MA20 几乎重合,叠加已破的 8月14日低点 23,795,构成密集阻力带。
  • ⚑ 周线仍收跌 175 元(−0.73%),为连续第二周下跌且跌幅大于上一周的 −155 元。
  • ⚑ 伦铝周线亦下跌 21.00 美元(−0.65%)。
  • ⚑ 铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨,环比减少 0.1 万吨——去库由到货减少驱动,而非消费放量。
  • ⚑ 铝棒库存 14.3 万吨,较周一增加 0.05 万吨,与铝锭方向相反。
  • ⚑ 9 月加息概率升至 39.0%,10 月维持概率跌破 50% 至 47.0%,12 月至少加息一次概率 71.1%。
  • ⚑ 中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%——过剩仍在被制造,开工率未下调。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 contango 结构之外,东南亚 ADC12 继续走弱:马来 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元(−0.48%),泰国 FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元(−0.16%)。
  • ⚑ 非洲合金锭以 2,850 美元/吨冲击东南亚区域价格。
  • ⚑ 泰国天然气成本上涨约 40–50%,区域再生铝呈「成本上升、价格下跌」的双向挤压。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存连续第四个交易日零变动,35 日去库序列仍处中止状态。
  • ⚑ 伦铝 contango 由 −1.00 美元重新走阔至 −17.00 美元。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金社会库存 2.81 万吨,连续第二周累库且幅度扩大(延续)。
  • ⚑ 加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%,流失量仅约 42% 被其他市场吸收(延续)。
  • ⚑ 欧盟 CBAM 铝制品缺省值上调约 47.5% 并追溯至 1月1日(延续)。
  • ⚑ SMM 明确警示出口需求将逐步走弱;光伏边框回升属抢出口,美国关税 12 月生效后必现空档(延续)。
  • 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个子行业全部收缩;7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%;1-7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%(延续)。

八 · 一句话观点

上期的破位在一个交易日内被证伪——AL2610 先创出低于周四的新低 23,465(距 8月3日低点仅五元),再以 23,710 收盘(+115,+0.49%),形成低点更低、高点更高、收盘靠近上沿的看涨外包线,MA60(23,597.58)以 112.42 元收复,回撤比例由 107.0% 回落至 89.1%,收盘价重新高于 8月3日起点 70 元;同一交易日三地成交升贴水全部改善(华南 +160、华东平水、华中 −60,为连续第三个交易日现货强于盘面),社会库存绝对水平确认为 87.5 万吨(较周一 −1.1 万吨、较上周四 −2.3 万吨,7月23日以来九个印记仅一次累库),伦铝现货 +45.00 美元至 3,227.00 并收复 MA5 与 MA40,国际铝业协会首次以原铝产量序列量化中东缺口(海湾 7 月 29.3 万吨,同比 −44%);但收复是部分的——价格仍低于 MA5、MA10 与 MA20,而 MA5(23,794.00)与 MA20(23,792.75)几乎重合并叠加已破的 23,795,构成密集阻力带,周线仍收跌 175 元为连续第二周下跌,且周度出库量环比下降说明去库由到货减少而非消费放量驱动;故本期更宜读作「区间已具备被验证的下沿而尚不具备上沿突破的条件」,下方序列为 23,597.58(MA60,首要防线)→ 23,590.83(MA30)→ 23,525(8月20日低点)→ 23,465(8月21日低点,已被测试并守住)→ 23,400.00(MA40),上方序列为 23,760(8月21日高点)→ 23,792.75/23,794.00(MA20 与 MA5)→ 23,795(已破的 8月14日低点)。

九 · 周一日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ MA60(23,597.58)能否守住,以及 23,792.75/23,794.00 的密集阻力带能否被突破。周五的收复必须在周一得到确认才算成立:若周一开盘即跌回 23,597.58 下方,则周五的外包线应被读作空头回补而非底部;若能站上 23,795,则 MA5、MA20 与已破的 8月14日低点三重阻力同时被清除,区间上沿将上移至 MA10 的 23,964.50。下方序列:23,590.83(MA30)→ 23,525(8月20日低点)→ 23,465(8月21日低点)→ 23,400.00(MA40)→ 23,200(SMM 区间下沿)。
  • ⚑ 8月21日夜盘的缺口。本期未能载入周五夜盘(归属 8月24日交易日),这意味着周一开盘时市场已消化了本简报未观察到的四小时交易。周一首要工作是补齐该时段的开、高、低、收,并检验其是否与周五日盘的看涨结构一致。
  • ⚑ 三地升贴水能否维持第四个交易日的改善。核心问题是华南 +160 元能否守住:该水平已是本轮最高,若周一回落至 +100 以下,则周五应被读作周末前的挺价;若华东由平水转为升水,则「现货强于盘面」将由三日序列升级为结构性事实。同时关注华中 −60 元是否继续收敛,以及区域价差(现约 220 元)是否见顶。
  • ⚑ 周一社会库存印记。8月20日为 87.5 万吨;周一(8月24日)的印记将决定这轮去库是否延续至第六个印记。同时必须关注出库量:若库存继续下降而出库量继续下滑,则去库的供给端属性确认,对价格的支撑将弱于表面;若出库量回升,则需求端才真正开始参与。铝棒库存能否由增转降是同一问题的另一面。
  • ⚑ 伦铝能否守住 MA5(3,218.30 美元)与 MA40(3,194.51 美元),以及库存在第五个相同印记后的下一次变动方向。若现货继续上行并触及 MA20(3,245.62)与 SMM 区间上沿(3,250 美元),则伦铝将先于沪铝完成区间上移;同时关注 contango 是否由 −17.00 美元继续走阔,以及沪伦比值(7.347)是否延续压缩——比值继续下行意味着买盘仍在海外。
  • ⚑ 杰克逊霍尔(8月27–29 日)前的鹰派定价路径,以及美元是否终于跟随。9 月加息概率已连续三日上行至 39.0%、10 月维持概率跌破 50%、12 月至少加息一次 71.1%,而美元连续三日守在 99 下方。若概率继续升向 45% 而美元仍不反弹,则汇率端与利率路径的脱钩将成为可用的宏观事实;若美元回到 99 上方,则宏观利空须重新计入。沃什 8月28日演讲为结算窗口。
  • ⚑ 供应侧的两条新线索:一是国际铝业协会 8 月产量数据能否延续海湾地区的巨幅同比降幅,二是国内淘汰产能违规运行检查是否出现可量化的减产。前者决定全球缺口叙事的持续性,后者是国内供应的潜在增量利多;两者目前均只有方向而无幅度,应观察而非计入。同时关注氧化铝开工率(74.33%)在 7 月产量同比 +5.2% 之后是否终于下调。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This is the weekend edition, written on the morning of Saturday, August 22, covering the Friday August 21 session in full.
  • ⊘ The August 21 night session (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to the August 24 trading day; neither the exchange file nor an SMM overnight report had published at writing. It is carried as NOT RETRIEVABLE and is NOT estimated.
  • ⚑ Caliber verification, second consecutive edition: recomputing the August 20 window from the raw exchange files reproduces ALL EIGHTEEN published averages across the three SHFE products and ALL FIVE published LME averages, exactly.

⚑ SHFE: the break is falsified, MA60 reclaimed by 112.42

  • ⚑ AL2610 (main, open interest 267,438, −2,599): open 23,500, high 23,760, low 23,465, close 23,710, settlement 23,620, previous settlement 23,630; +80 on the previous settlement (+0.34%), −10 settlement-over-settlement (−0.04%), and +115 (+0.49%) close-over-close against August 20’s 23,595; volume 175,287 (from 170,293, +2.9%).
  • ⚑ The structure of the session is the point: the low of 23,465 is BELOW August 20’s 23,525 and sits just FIVE points above August 3’s 23,460 — the lowest intraday low in thirteen sessions — while the high of 23,760 EXCEEDS August 20’s 23,720, and the close sits 245 above the low and 50 below the high. A lower low, a higher high and a close near the top is a bullish outside session (this is a derivation).
  • AL2609: open 23,500, high 23,750, low 23,470, close 23,695, settlement 23,620; +80 on the previous settlement, +110 (+0.47%) close-over-close; volume 60,450, open interest 116,527 (−11,891).
  • AL2611 close 23,710, open interest 93,788 (+1,356); AL2612 close 23,680, open interest 60,741 (+1,270); AL2701 close 23,660, open interest 36,346 (−394); AL2702 close 23,670, open interest 12,337 (+1,901).
  • Whole-product aluminium volume 295,207 (from 307,317, −3.9%), open interest 608,693 (−10,065).

⚑ Moving averages: three of six reclaimed, three still overhead

  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium averages (to August 21, 86 sessions): MA5 23,794.00, MA10 23,964.50, MA20 23,792.75, MA30 23,590.83, MA40 23,400.00, MA60 23,597.58.
  • ⚑ The close of 23,710 is 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20, but 119.17 ABOVE MA30, 310.00 ABOVE MA40 and 112.42 ABOVE MA60.
  • ⚑ MA60 IS RECLAIMED. Surrendered by 12.17 on August 20, retaken by 112.42 on August 21; the price now sits above three of six averages (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The prior edition’s watchlist read: ‘a close back above it in either session downgrades this break from confirmed to false.’ The condition was met, and this edition downgrades the break accordingly.
  • ⚑ The twenty-session window runs July 27 to August 21, close range 23,195 (July 27) to 24,285 (August 12), placing 23,710 at the 47.2nd percentile, UP from 36.7. The sixty-session window runs May 29 to August 21, range 22,370 to 24,825, percentile 54.6, from 49.9.
  • ⚑ The retracement arithmetic reverses: 23,710 gives back 575 of the 645-point August 3-to-August 12 advance, or 89.1%, against 107.0% a session earlier, and the close now sits 70 ABOVE the August 3 launch point of 23,640 rather than 45 below it (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ On the week: AL2610 closed 23,710 against August 14’s 23,885, −175 (−0.73%) — a SECOND consecutive weekly loss and a LARGER one than the prior week’s −155 (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ The underlying closes (main = highest-open-interest contract): July 20 23,010, July 21 23,160, July 22 23,190, July 23 23,345, July 24 23,225, July 27 23,195, July 28 23,220, July 29 23,455, July 30 23,625, July 31 23,630, August 3 23,640, August 4 23,810, August 5 23,785, August 6 23,810, August 7 24,040, August 10 24,165, August 11 24,250, August 12 24,285, August 13 24,090, August 14 23,885, August 17 24,035, August 18 23,955, August 19 23,675, August 20 23,595, August 21 23,710.

⚑ Alumina and cast alloy: alumina reclaims four averages in one session

  • AO2610 (main, open interest 284,910, −26,473): open 2,669, high 2,707, low 2,661, close 2,698, settlement 2,685, previous settlement 2,667; +31 on the previous settlement (+1.16%), +18 settlement-over-settlement, and +35 (+1.31%) close-over-close; volume 241,712. AO2609 close 2,691, settlement 2,681, open interest 70,715 (−12,013); AO2611 close 2,715, open interest 64,064 (−3,310); AO2701 close 2,749, open interest 82,366 (−783).
  • ⚑ Whole-product alumina volume 324,852 (from 303,904, +6.9%), open interest 532,941 (−42,449).
  • ⚑ The prior edition’s structural fact survives but narrows: AO2610’s open interest of 284,910 still EXCEEDS AL2610’s 267,438, but by 17,472 lots against 41,346 the session before, while alumina’s whole-product volume now runs 1.10× aluminium’s against 1.01× (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Alumina averages: MA5 2,681.40, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,678.70, MA30 2,685.93, MA40 2,699.95, MA60 2,753.25. The close of 2,698 is ABOVE MA5 by 16.60, MA10 by 6.50, MA20 by 19.30 and MA30 by 12.07, and BELOW only MA40 by 1.95 and MA60 by 55.25 — FOUR OF SIX RECLAIMED in one session after three consecutive sessions below all six, with the twenty-session percentile jumping from 39.6 to 72.6 (this is a derivation).
  • AD2610 (main, open interest 18,052, −251): open 22,900, high 23,105, low 22,820, close 23,060, settlement 22,955, previous settlement 22,970; +90 on the previous settlement (+0.39%), −15 settlement-over-settlement, and +115 (+0.50%) close-over-close; volume 6,611. AD2609 close 23,000, settlement 22,905, open interest 4,029 (−183). Whole-product volume 10,628, open interest 23,763 (−339).
  • ⚑ The day file’s open of 22,900 and low of 22,820 reconcile EXACTLY with the August 20 night-session figures carried in the prior edition, confirming that the exchange caliber embeds the night session (this is a derivation).
  • ⚑ Cast alloy averages: MA5 23,052.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,265.50, MA30 23,170.67, MA40 23,066.75, MA60 23,097.17. The close of 23,060 RECLAIMS MA5 by 8.00 and misses MA40 by 6.75, with the twenty-session percentile rising from 0.7 to 17.0 (this is a derivation).

⚑ LME: cash reclaims MA5 and MA40, the contango re-widens to −$17.00

  • ⚑ Westmetall official caliber: August 21 cash settlement $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%), three-month $3,244.00 (+$61.00, +1.92%).
  • ⚑ The cash-to-3M spread is −$17.00 — the contango RE-WIDENED from −$1.00 on August 20, because the forward rose $61.00 against the cash’s $45.00. The series: +$2.00 (August 14) → $0.00 (August 17) → −$15.00 (August 18) → −$20.50 (August 19) → −$1.00 (August 20) → −$17.00 (August 21).
  • ⚑ Stocks 246,925 mt, UNCHANGED FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION; August 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 are five identical prints.
  • Cash is −$146.00 (−4.33%) from the August 11 cycle high of $3,373.00, from −$191.00.
  • ⚑ This brief’s own LME averages: MA5 $3,218.30, MA10 $3,262.65, MA20 $3,245.62, MA40 $3,194.51, MA60 $3,293.41. Cash at $3,227.00 RECLAIMS MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49, and remains below MA10 by $35.65, MA20 by $18.62 and MA60 by $66.41.
  • ⚑ On the week: cash closed $3,227.00 against August 14’s $3,248.00, −$21.00 (−0.65%) — a second weekly loss, but a smaller one than Shanghai’s in percentage terms.
  • ⚑ The ratio moved hard: SHFE-to-LME fell from 7.415 to 7.347, the largest single-session compression this brief has recorded in August, because LME cash rose 1.41% against SHFE’s 0.49% (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics carries aluminium at $3,248.75, +$61.25 (+1.92%), month +1.82%, year +23.88% on an August 21 stamp — which matches Westmetall’s THREE-MONTH move to within $0.25 and confirms that the series tracks the forward, not the cash. The two calibers are, for the first time, RECONCILED in mechanism rather than merely listed.

Interpretation

  • How the break was falsified matters more than the fact of it. The market first took out Thursday’s low by sixty points, reached 23,465 — five points off the August 3 low — and then closed fifty points off the high. That is the shape of a market that ran the stops beneath a lost average and found nothing to sell into.
  • But the reclamation is partial and should not be oversold. MA5 (23,794.00) and MA20 (23,792.75) are effectively the same level, and together with the broken August 14 low at 23,795 they form one dense band of resistance. The week still closed 175 lower.
  • The ratio compression says Friday’s bid was international, not Chinese. That is consistent with the IAI production print and not with the domestic inventory print.

⚑ Spot: all three regions improved on the same session, for a third straight day

  • ⚑ SMM regional transaction premia and discounts against AL2609 on August 21: SOUTH CHINA a PREMIUM of 160 yuan/mt, EAST CHINA PARITY at 0, CENTRAL CHINA a DISCOUNT of 60.
  • ⚑ Against August 20’s South China +75 to +115, East China −20 to 0 and Central China −70 to −90, all three regions improved on the same session, and South China’s premium is the widest of the current run (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ The absolute A00 quotation for August 21 was NOT retrievable at writing; the carried level is August 20’s 23,600 yuan/mt (range 23,580–23,620).
  • ⊘ Because SMM strikes the A00 quotation at 10:15 while the regional premia are struck against the September contract across the session, the basis this brief publishes on ordinary days CANNOT be computed for August 21 and is NOT estimated. For reference only: AL2609 closed 23,695 and East China transactions printed at parity to it, which is consistent with a spot level near 23,695 but is not the SMM quotation caliber (this is interpretation).
  • ⊘ August 21 sentiment indices were not retrievable; carried from August 20: East China shipment 3.2 and procurement 3.16, Central China shipment 3.1 and procurement 2.9.

Alumina: the board reversed with the metal, but domestic output keeps growing

  • ⚑ NEW: China’s July alumina production was 7.835 million mt, +5.2% y/y (National Bureau of Statistics caliber).
  • ⚑ NEW: SMM’s July national weighted-average FULL COST is 2,718 yuan/mt.
  • ⊘ A domestic operating-capacity figure of ‘approaching 97 million mt/year’ circulated on August 21 against the 88.01 million mt/year carried from SMM’s weekly review; different calibers, listed and NOT reconciled.
  • ⊘ The SMM alumina index for August 21 was not retrievable; carried at August 20’s 2,681.62 yuan/mt, with regional spot at Shandong 2,650–2,720, Henan 2,690–2,750, Shanxi 2,680–2,740, Guangxi 2,580–2,640 and Guizhou 2,720–2,790.
  • Carried ex-China: $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (August 20 trade); SMM’s FOB Western Australia $360 equates to approximately 3,066.17 yuan/mt at Chinese ports, 384.55 yuan above the domestic index.
  • August 21 commentary names 2,600 yuan as the level to watch beneath the futures.
  • Carried: national weekly operating rate flat at 74.33%, weekly production 1.688 million mt, total China alumina stocks 7.245 million mt (−30,000 w/w).

⚑ Secondary and alloy: South-East Asian ADC12 falls again

  • ⚑ SMM’s August 21 South-East Asia survey: Malaysian ADC12 domestic MYR 12.45/kg (≈$3,082/mt), −0.40% w/w, FOB Port Klang $3,090/mt, −0.48%. Thai ADC12 domestic THB 102.5/kg (≈$3,137/mt), −0.97%, FOB Laem Chabang approximately $3,070/mt, −0.16%; export offers $3,050–3,090/mt.
  • ⚑ Regional scrap fell harder: Malaysian Talon MYR 13,250/mt (−3.64% w/w), Tense $2,650/mt (−4.50%), UBC MYR 10,125/mt (+0.75%); Thai Talon THB 109,000/mt (−1.36%), UBC THB 82,000/mt (−2.38%).
  • ⚑ SMM attributes the weakness to the regional seasonal lull with automotive and die-casting orders recovering slowly; notes Thai natural gas costs up approximately 40–50%, raising production expenses; and flags African alloy ingots at $2,850/mt pressuring regional prices, though quality variation limits their use in demanding applications.
  • Carried: registered cast alloy warrants 19,998 mt; July unwrought alloy exports +135.1% y/y.

Interpretation

  • Three regions improving on the same session is the strongest spot evidence of the week. August 19 the spot fell less than the paper; August 20 South China withheld; August 21 all three moved together.
  • But the regional spread widened to roughly 220 yuan (South China +160 against Central China −60), above the prior edition’s 145–205. The improvement is coastal, not national — consistent with export flow and tight circulating tonnage rather than broad demand.
  • South-East Asian ADC12 points the opposite way to domestic cast alloy. AD2610 rose 115 and reclaimed MA5 while regional spot fell with costs rising. That is a regional squeeze, not a global demand improvement.

3 · Inventory

⚑ The absolute social-inventory level is confirmed: 875,000 mt

  • ⚑ SMM’s Thursday August 20 domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory is 875,000 mt, −11,000 mt on Monday August 17 and −23,000 mt on the prior Thursday August 13.
  • ⚑ The full series: 1,006,000 mt (July 23) → 979,000 (July 27) → 953,000 (July 30) → 958,000 (August 3) → 933,000 (August 6) → 917,000 (August 10) → 898,000 (August 13) → 886,000 (August 17) → 875,000 (August 20).
  • ⚑ Apart from the single 5,000 mt build on August 3, the series destocks throughout: −83,000 mt from the August 3 level across five prints, and −131,000 mt from July 23 (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ A second caliber circulated this week at 849,000 mt with a 27,000 mt weekly draw; it is not SMM’s social series, it is listed and it is NOT reconciled.
  • ⚑ BILLET: SMM’s August 20 mainstream-consumption-area billet inventory is 143,000 mt, +500 mt on Monday. ⊘ This is not comparable with the 93,500 mt two-region billet caliber carried on August 19; both are listed and not reconciled.
  • ⚑ WITHDRAWALS: 123,200 mt for August 10–16, −1,000 mt on the prior week.
  • LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged a fourth day (five identical prints).
  • Carried: cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt, +2,500 mt w/w, a second week of buildup; secondary aluminium alloy ingot inventory 10,275 mt; Japan’s three major ports at 201,000 mt at end-July, the lowest since April 2010.

Interpretation

  • The prior edition withdrew its ‘the destock has turned’ call on directional evidence alone. The level now confirms the withdrawal was correct, and arguably overdue. Nine prints from July 23 to August 20 contain exactly one build, of 5,000 mt.
  • The honest qualification is the withdrawal data. Outflows for August 10–16 were 123,200 mt, DOWN 1,000 mt. Inventory falls while outflows are flat, which makes this a supply-led destock: it supports price but is not a demand signal.
  • Billet inventory rose 500 mt against the ingot draw. Casting-ingot output is being suppressed by the liquid-aluminium ratio while the processing end is not clearing what it receives.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The Fed: hike odds rise a third straight session, October’s hold breaks below 50%

  • ⚑ Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor, updated August 21 at 20:35 EDT, prices the September 16 FOMC at 61.0% hold and 39.0% HIKE to 3.75–4.00%, off 30-day fed funds futures at 96.325 — above August 20’s 35.3% and August 19’s 30.6%, a cumulative +8.4 percentage points in three sessions.
  • ⚑ October 28: hold 47.0%, one hike 44.1%, two hikes 9.0%, off futures at 96.265 (from 51.3/41.4/7.3) — the first time in this sequence that the October hold has fallen below 50%.
  • December 9: 3.50–3.75% 28.9%, 3.75–4.00% 45.2%, 4.00–4.25% 22.5%, 4.25–4.50% 3.5%, off futures at 96.140 — implying approximately 71.1% odds of at least one hike by December, from 65.6% (this is a derivation).
  • Jackson Hole runs AUGUST 27–29, with Chair Warsh’s first address as Chair on Friday August 28.

⚑ Dollar and energy: three sessions of hawkish repricing, three sessions below 99

  • ⚑ The dollar index reads 98.839, −0.06% on the session, month −2.26%, year +1.15% — a THIRD consecutive session below 99, and the third consecutive session in which rising hike odds failed to lift it (this is a derivation).
  • Brent $93.87, +0.10% on the session, month −0.21%, year +38.59%; a SECOND consecutive weekly gain of more than 5% is confirmed.
  • Carried: initial jobless claims 206,000 for the week ending August 15, below the 210,000 consensus.

China policy and geopolitics

  • Carried: the August LPR held at 3.00% and 3.50%, unchanged for a fifteenth consecutive month.
  • ⚑ NEW: domestic compliance checks on the illegal operation of capacity slated for elimination are under way; market commentary expects a reduction in domestic primary aluminium supply.
  • Carried: the UAE’s suspension of all trade, commercial exchange and financial transactions with Iran remains in force. ⊘ Lloyd’s List Intelligence reports 60 Hormuz transits for August 3–9, up from 34 and 35 in the two weeks after the transit memorandum lapsed.
  • Carried: Canada’s H1 aluminium exports to the US −25.03%; the EU raised CBAM aluminium-derivative defaults by roughly 47.5%, retroactive to January 1, 2026.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • Hike odds up 8.4 percentage points in three sessions with the dollar DOWN is the most anomalous fact in the column. Either the currency is discounting something the rates market is not, or short-dollar positioning is heavy enough that rate news cannot move it. Neither is bearish for aluminium; the second is fragile.
  • October’s hold breaking below 50% is the substantive step in this repricing. The earlier moves were concentrated in September; they have now spread to October and to the December distribution.
  • Jackson Hole on August 27–29, with Warsh speaking August 28, is where this thread settles or breaks.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Global supply: the IAI quantifies the Middle East hole for the first time

  • ⚑ The International Aluminium Institute reports GLOBAL July primary aluminium production of 6.16 million mt, −1.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ GULF REGION July production was 293,000 mt against 523,000 mt a year earlier, −44% y/y — a loss of 230,000 mt in a single month from one region.
  • The two smelters attacked in late March represent approximately 9% of global capacity, and their export channels remain disrupted.
  • EGA states that Al Taweelah is recovering faster than anticipated; ⊘ the ‘could take up to a year to resume’ line remains on the record alongside the Q1 2027 full-capacity guidance. Both are listed and NOT reconciled.
  • Carried: EGA H1 production 602,000 t (−47% y/y) and sales 939,000 t (−32% y/y), with approximately $400 million of Al Taweelah restoration capex; Alunorte ramping back to full; Tomago with A$2.5 billion of support from 2029; Slovalco and the Missouri smelter pending restart; Nanshan’s Indonesian 250,000 mt/year project under construction.

Domestic supply, cost and downstream

  • ⚑ NEW: the aluminium processing operating rate is 60.0%, +0.1 percentage point w/w.
  • ⚑ NEW: China’s July alumina output 7.835 million mt, +5.2% y/y; July national weighted-average alumina full cost 2,718 yuan/mt.
  • ⚑ NEW: domestic compliance checks on capacity slated for elimination are expected to reduce supply.
  • Carried: July primary output +1.6% y/y and +3.5% m/m; month-end capacity approximately 46.29 million mt; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% with an August forecast of 78.5%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; passive cuts in southwest China continuing.
  • Carried: July net primary imports 154,000 mt, +19.4% m/m and −25.9% y/y; July scrap imports ~120,000 mt, −25% y/y, a fourth consecutive monthly decline; July bauxite imports 19.044 million mt, −6.3% m/m.
  • Carried: SMM warns that the recovered domestic-overseas price ratio and the digestion of orders on hand mean export demand will weaken gradually; the PV-frame uptick is front-loading ahead of US tariffs effective in December.
  • Carried: CPCA July passenger-vehicle retail 1.461 million units, −20.9% y/y, with NEV exports +147.8%; July industrial output +4.5%, retail sales +0.6%, January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%, new-home prices −3.2% y/y.

Interpretation

  • The Gulf’s 293,000 mt is the most important new fact in this edition. For several editions this brief has carried secondary estimates of 3–3.5 million mt of combined EGA and Alba disruption and marked them uncorroborated. A primary production series now shows the hole. The direction is corroborated; the magnitude still has to accumulate month by month.
  • China’s July alumina output at +5.2% y/y means the surplus is still being manufactured. The operating rate is flat at 74.33%, and the gap between the 2,718 yuan full cost and the 2,681.62 index is not yet wide enough to force clearing.
  • The capacity-elimination compliance checks are a genuinely new domestic supply thread, but there is a policy action and no quantified impact. Watch it; do not yet count it.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ August 21: every regional premium/discount improved

  • ⚑ South China (Foshan): a PREMIUM of 160 yuan/mt against AL2609, up from August 20’s +75 to +115 and the widest of the current run.
  • ⚑ East China: PARITY at 0 against AL2609, up from August 20’s −20 to 0 — the top of the prior range becomes the whole of the new one.
  • ⚑ Central China: a DISCOUNT of 60 against AL2609, narrowed from August 20’s −70 to −90.
  • ⚑ All three moved in the same direction on the same session, a third consecutive day of the physical reading firmer than the board (this is a derivation).
  • ⊘ Shipment and procurement sentiment indices for August 21 were not retrievable; carried from August 20: East China shipment 3.2 and procurement 3.16, Central China shipment 3.1 and procurement 2.9.
  • Carried, from SMM’s August 20 South China review: holders withheld widely, with ‘price cuts and concessions almost disappearing’; traders ‘found it hard to source cheap lots’ and ‘accepted small premiums without hesitation’.

Interpretation

  • The regional spread widened to roughly 220 yuan (South China +160 against Central China −60), above the prior edition’s 145–205. The improvement is not uniform: the coast is leading and the interior is following at a distance.
  • East China moving from a discount to parity is the most diagnostic of the three. It is the deepest market, and its discount reaching zero typically precedes a national premium structure.
  • The caution is that improving premia coexist with falling outflows. The premium reflects tightness in circulating tonnage rather than growth in offtake. The two are not contradictory, but the former is the more easily reversed.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ MA60 (23,597.58) reclaimed by 112.42; the prior edition’s break is downgraded to a false break.
  • ⚑ A bullish outside session: a low of 23,465 (below the prior day and five points off the August 3 low) followed by a close of 23,710, above the prior day’s high.
  • ⚑ The retracement falls from 107.0% to 89.1%, with the close back 70 above the August 3 launch point.
  • ⚑ The twenty-session percentile rises from 36.7 to 47.2; the sixty-session from 49.9 to 54.6.
  • ⚑ Social inventory 875,000 mt, −11,000 on Monday and −23,000 on the prior Thursday; nine prints since July 23 contain exactly one build.
  • ⚑ Cumulative destocking of 83,000 mt from the August 3 level and 131,000 mt from July 23.
  • ⚑ All three regional transaction premia improved on the same session: South China +160, East China parity, Central China −60.
  • ⚑ South China’s +160 is the widest of the run; East China’s discount reaches zero.
  • ⚑ LME cash $3,227.00, +$45.00 (+1.41%), reclaiming MA5 and MA40.
  • ⚑ LME stocks at 246,925 mt remain an absolute low, unchanged across five identical prints.
  • ⚑ IAI: Gulf July primary output −44% y/y to 293,000 mt, a 230,000 mt single-month loss; global July output −1.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ The global supply gap is corroborated in a primary production series for the first time.
  • ⚑ The dollar holds below 99 for a third session (98.839) and failed to rally through an 8.4-point rise in hike odds.
  • ⚑ Brent confirms a second consecutive weekly gain above 5% ($93.87) — cost-side and risk-side positive.
  • ⚑ Alumina AO2610 reclaims four averages in one session (+35, +1.31%), stabilising the cost floor.
  • ⚑ Domestic compliance checks on capacity slated for elimination are expected to reduce supply.
  • ⚑ Cast alloy AD2610 reclaims MA5 (+115, +0.50%); its twenty-session percentile rises from 0.7 to 17.0.
  • ⚑ The aluminium processing operating rate rises to 60.0%, +0.1 percentage point.
  • ⚑ The UAE’s suspension of Iran trade remains in force; geopolitical risk in EGA’s home market is not resolved.
  • Carried: July scrap imports −25% y/y, a fourth consecutive decline, a hard cost constraint under secondary alloy.
  • Carried: July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% and casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y, suppressing ingot formation.
  • Carried: Japan’s three major ports at 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010.
  • Carried: passive cuts in southwest China; EGA H1 production −47% y/y.
  • Carried: January–July semis exports +16.7%; July unwrought alloy exports +135.1% y/y.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ The close of 23,710 is still 84.00 below MA5 (23,794.00), 254.50 below MA10 (23,964.50) and 82.75 below MA20 (23,792.75).
  • ⚑ MA5 and MA20 are effectively the same level and coincide with the broken August 14 low at 23,795 — one dense resistance band.
  • ⚑ The week still closed −175 (−0.73%), a second consecutive weekly loss and larger than the prior week’s −155.
  • ⚑ LME cash also closed the week −$21.00 (−0.65%).
  • ⚑ Weekly ingot withdrawals 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w — the destock is arrival-led, not consumption-led.
  • ⚑ Billet inventory 143,000 mt, +500 mt on Monday, moving opposite to ingot.
  • ⚑ September hike odds 39.0%, October’s hold below 50% at 47.0%, December at least one hike 71.1%.
  • ⚑ China’s July alumina output 7.835 million mt, +5.2% y/y — the surplus is still being produced and the operating rate has not come down.
  • ⚑ South-East Asian ADC12 fell again: Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090 (−0.48% w/w), Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070 (−0.16%).
  • ⚑ African alloy ingots at $2,850/mt are undercutting South-East Asian regional prices.
  • ⚑ Thai natural gas costs up approximately 40–50%: the regional secondary complex faces rising cost with falling price.
  • ⚑ LME stocks unchanged a fourth session; the 35-day draw remains stalled.
  • ⚑ The LME contango re-widened from −$1.00 to −$17.00.
  • ⚑ Cast alloy social inventory 28,100 mt, a second week of buildup with the pace widening (carried).
  • ⚑ Canada’s H1 exports to the US −25.03%, with only ~42% of the lost volume rehoused (carried).
  • ⚑ The EU’s CBAM aluminium-derivative defaults up ~47.5%, retroactive to January 1 (carried).
  • ⚑ SMM warns export demand will weaken gradually; the PV-frame uptick is front-loading ahead of December US tariffs (carried).
  • July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7% (carried).

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The prior edition’s break was falsified within one session — AL2610 first printed a LOWER low at 23,465, five points off the August 3 low, then closed 23,710 (+115, +0.49%) above the prior day’s high in a textbook bullish outside session, reclaiming MA60 at 23,597.58 by 112.42, cutting the retracement of the August advance from 107.0% to 89.1% and putting the close 70 back ABOVE the August 3 launch point; on the same session all three regional transaction premia improved (South China +160, East China parity, Central China −60, a third consecutive day of the physical reading firmer than the board), the social inventory LEVEL was confirmed at 875,000 mt (−11,000 on Monday, −23,000 on the prior Thursday, with exactly one build in nine prints since July 23), LME cash rose $45.00 to $3,227.00 to reclaim MA5 and MA40, and the IAI quantified the Middle East hole in a primary series for the first time (Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y) — but the reclamation is PARTIAL, with the price still below MA5, MA10 and MA20 and with MA5 (23,794.00), MA20 (23,792.75) and the broken August 14 low at 23,795 forming one dense resistance band, the week still closing −175 for a second consecutive weekly loss, and weekly withdrawals FALLING, which makes this destock arrival-led rather than consumption-led; so this is better read as a range that has now proven its floor but not earned its ceiling, with the downside sequence 23,597.58 (MA60, the first line) → 23,590.83 (MA30) → 23,525 (the August 20 low) → 23,465 (the August 21 low, tested and held) → 23,400.00 (MA40), and the upside sequence 23,760 (the August 21 high) → 23,792.75/23,794.00 (MA20 and MA5) → 23,795 (the broken August 14 low).

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether MA60 (23,597.58) holds, and whether the dense band at 23,792.75/23,794.00 can be cleared. Friday’s reclamation must be confirmed on Monday to count: an open back beneath 23,597.58 makes Friday’s outside session short-covering rather than a base, while a close above 23,795 clears MA5, MA20 and the broken August 14 low at once and moves the range ceiling up to MA10 at 23,964.50. Downside sequence: 23,590.83 (MA30) → 23,525 (the August 20 low) → 23,465 (the August 21 low) → 23,400.00 (MA40) → 23,200 (SMM’s band floor).
  • ⚑ The gap left by the unobserved Friday night session. This edition could not carry it, which means Monday’s reopen has already digested four hours of trading this brief did not see. The first task on Monday is to fill in that session’s open, high, low and close and test whether it agreed with Friday’s day-session structure.
  • ⚑ Whether the regional improvement extends to a fourth session. The core question is whether South China’s +160 holds: it is already the widest of the run, and a fall back below +100 would make Friday a pre-weekend hold-out. If East China moves from parity to an outright premium, ‘the physical is firmer than the board’ upgrades from a three-day sequence to a structural fact. Watch also whether Central China’s −60 keeps narrowing and whether the ~220 yuan regional spread has peaked.
  • ⚑ Monday’s social inventory print. August 20 was 875,000 mt; the August 24 print decides whether the draw reaches a sixth consecutive reading. Read it together with withdrawals: if inventory falls again while outflows keep declining, the supply-led character of this destock is confirmed and its price support is weaker than it looks; if outflows recover, demand is finally participating. Whether billet inventory turns from build to draw is the same question from the other side.
  • ⚑ Whether LME cash holds MA5 ($3,218.30) and MA40 ($3,194.51), and the direction of the next stock change after five identical prints. If cash advances to MA20 ($3,245.62) and SMM’s band ceiling ($3,250), the LME will complete a range shift ahead of Shanghai. Watch also whether the contango widens further from −$17.00, and whether the SHFE-LME ratio (7.347) keeps compressing — continued compression means the bid is still offshore.
  • ⚑ The hawkish repricing path into Jackson Hole (August 27–29) and whether the dollar finally follows. September hike odds have risen three sessions to 39.0%, October’s hold has broken below 50%, and December implies 71.1% for at least one hike, while the dollar has closed below 99 three times. If odds push toward 45% and the dollar still refuses to rally, the decoupling of the currency channel from the rate path becomes a usable macro fact. If the dollar retakes 99, the macro bear case must be re-entered. Warsh speaks on August 28.
  • ⚑ Two new supply threads: whether the IAI’s August data extends the Gulf’s collapse in year-on-year terms, and whether the domestic capacity-elimination compliance checks produce any quantified cuts. The first determines the durability of the global-deficit narrative; the second is a potential domestic supply positive. Both currently have direction without magnitude and should be watched, not counted. Watch also whether the alumina operating rate (74.33%) finally comes down after a July output print of +5.2% y/y.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, or data not retrievable at the time of writing.