Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: Three inventory calibers now agree as SHFE weekly stocks fall 18,300t. Spot in South China beats the board.周末版:三种库存口径方向一致,上期所周度库存下降 1.83 万吨;华南现货强于盘面。

Sunday, August 23, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Sunday August 23 (Asia). ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED SINCE FRIDAY AUGUST 21, so every futures price, settlement, open interest and moving average in this edition is IDENTICAL to the prior edition's by construction and is restated, not re-derived. ⊘ THE AUGUST 21 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to the AUGUST 24 trading day and will not appear in an exchange file until after Monday's session; it is carried as NOT RETRIEVABLE for a SECOND consecutive edition and is NOT estimated. WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION IS CORROBORATION, WEEKEND NEWS FLOW AND WEEKLY-CALIBER DATA THAT PUBLISHED AFTER THE PRIOR EDITION WENT OUT. FIRST, ⚑ SHFE WEEKLY WAREHOUSE STOCKS, NEW: the exchange's August 17–21 weekly stock report puts aluminium at 403,797 mt, −18,300 mt week-on-week, against a −13,642 mt draw the prior week. ⚑ The draw ACCELERATED by 4,658 mt and the implied prior-week level was 422,097 mt (derivation). ⊘ SEPARATELY, SHFE registered aluminium WARRANTS stood at 290,536 mt on August 19, −2,393 mt on the session; warrants and weekly warehouse stocks are DIFFERENT CALIBERS (the warrant series counts only metal against live warrants) and the two are listed and NOT reconciled. ⊘ NEITHER is the same caliber as SMM's 875,000 mt domestic mainstream-consumption-area SOCIAL series; all three are listed and NOT reconciled, and the only claim this brief makes across them is directional: every one of the three is flat or lower and none is building. SECOND, ⚑ A FIVE-MARKET SPOT PRICE TABLE FOR AUGUST 17–21, NEW AND INDEPENDENT OF SMM. Cnal's caliber reads — CHANGJIANG: 24,080 (Aug 17), 23,890, 23,670, 23,590, 23,670 (Aug 21); SHANGHAI SPOT: 24,050, 23,890, 23,660, 23,590, 23,680; NANHAI: 24,400, 24,290, 24,060, 23,980, 24,130; HUATONG 99.7%: 24,120, 23,950, 23,720, 23,650, 23,730. ⚑ ON AUGUST 21 THE MOVES WERE NANHAI +150, SHANGHAI SPOT +90, CHANGJIANG +80, HUATONG +80, AGAINST AL2610's +115 — South China led every caliber and was the ONLY spot caliber to beat the board, while both East China calibers lagged it (derivation). ⚑ THE NANHAI-MINUS-SHANGHAI SPREAD RAN 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 ACROSS THE WEEK, printing its widest value of the week on Friday (derivation). ⚑ MONDAY-TO-FRIDAY: Changjiang −410 (−1.70%), Shanghai spot −370 (−1.54%), Huatong −390 (−1.62%), NANHAI −270 (−1.11%) — South China fell the LEAST of the four (derivation). ⊘ The source's own 'week −1.26%' figure for Changjiang uses a different weekly window from the Monday-to-Friday one computed here; it is listed and NOT reconciled. ⊘ THE SMM A00 QUOTATION FOR AUGUST 21 REMAINS NOT RETRIEVABLE and is still carried at August 20's 23,600. ⚑ HOWEVER: on August 20 the cnal Shanghai-spot caliber read 23,590 against SMM's 23,600 — a 10-yuan offset — and that caliber rose 90 to 23,680 on August 21, which implies an SMM A00 near 23,690. THIS IS INTERPRETATION ACROSS TWO CALIBERS AND IS NOT THE SMM QUOTATION; the brief does not publish it as one. ⚑ AND THE TIMING CAVEAT MATTERS THIS WEEK: SMM strikes A00 at 10:15 while AL2610 closed 245 ABOVE its low at 15:00, so any Friday spot-minus-futures discount computed from a 10:15 print is a timing artifact of the intraday reversal rather than physical weakness (this is interpretation). THIRD, ⚑ SMM'S SCRAP AND SECONDARY WEEKLY REVIEW, NEW, dated August 20 and Thursday-to-Thursday: SMM ADC12 23,900 yuan/mt, −300 on the prior Thursday (implied prior level 24,200); SMM A00 23,600, −520 on the prior Thursday's 24,120. ⚑ THE ADC12 PREMIUM OVER A00 THEREFORE WIDENED FROM 80 YUAN TO 300 YUAN IN ONE WEEK, +220 (derivation). Price spreads: A00 minus mixed extrusion scrap 2,360 yuan/mt; A00 minus shredded scrap 1,150 yuan/mt; shredded aluminium 19,900–20,700 yuan/mt. Overseas ADC12 quotes $3,050–3,190/mt. SECONDARY ALUMINIUM OPERATING RATE stable at 49.1%. CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY INGOT INVENTORY 28,100 mt, +2,500 mt m/m (this confirms the figure the prior edition carried). ⚑ JULY ALUMINIUM SCRAP IMPORTS approximately 119,600 mt against June's 133,000 mt, −10.1% m/m (derivation), attributed to the inverted China-overseas price spread and shipment delays. ⚑ POLICY: the reverse-invoicing policy's impact is DEEPENING, with compliant invoiced scrap scarcity rising continuously and constraining both operating rates and procurement at scrap-utilising enterprises. ⊘ THE SAME SMM REVIEW DESCRIBES 'continued social inventory accumulation' AGAINST SMM'S OWN INGOT SOCIAL SERIES SHOWING 875,000 mt AND FALLING; the phrase most plausibly refers to the alloy and billet complex rather than to ingot, but the two texts are listed and NOT reconciled. FOURTH, ⚑ WEEKEND GEOPOLITICS, ALL NEW AND ALL DATED AUGUST 21–22. Strait of Hormuz transits stand at approximately 20% OF THE PRE-WAR AVERAGE. Iranian state media states Iran will permit IRAQI OIL TANKERS to transit. On August 22 Trump posted an image of the strait captioned 'New US Territory'; a close ally of Iran's supreme leader responded that Trump's rhetoric 'stems from desperation' and that Iran 'will not submit.' ⚑ THE US TREASURY'S ESCALATED SANCTIONS PACKAGE IS TO BE DETAILED ON MONDAY, AUGUST 24 — inside the session this edition's watchlist covers. The 60-day deadline lapsed on August 17 with no talks under way or scheduled; Trump has separately threatened to strike Oman, the mediator. US retail gasoline prices are up nearly one dollar year-on-year on the depressed transit count. ⚑ FOR ALUMINIUM SPECIFICALLY: the Iraqi-tanker concession is OIL-SPECIFIC and does not restore bulk alumina and raw-material shipping to Gulf refineries and smelters, which is the channel that produced the IAI's −44% y/y Gulf July print carried in the prior edition (this is interpretation). FIFTH, ⚑ CORPORATE, NEW: Nanshan Aluminium International's H1 2026 results — revenue $415.032 million against $596.814 million a year earlier (−30.5%); net income excluding extraordinary items $62.682 million against $248.246 million (−74.8%); alumina SALES VOLUME +15%; average selling price −39.5%. The company had guided to $58–68 million and landed near the middle of its own band. ⚑ VOLUMES ROSE 15% WHILE PROFIT FELL 74.8% — the entire move is price, which is the alumina surplus expressed in a profit-and-loss statement rather than in an index (derivation). SIXTH, SUPPLY ARITHMETIC, NEW CALIBERS: China's July primary aluminium output 3.9 million mt, +3.8% y/y. Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y on lower Middle East operating rates — BUT overseas DAILY AVERAGE output +1.6% m/m, on production resumptions in the Middle East and Iceland and capacity ramp-ups in Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Brazil, Norway, Spain and Australia. ⚑ THE TWO ARE NOT IN CONFLICT: the year-on-year hole is wide and the month-on-month margin is refilling, which is the correct reading of the IAI's global −1.7% y/y (derivation). ⊘ The +3.8% y/y China figure is a different caliber from the '+1.6%' figure carried in prior editions, which referred to the OVERSEAS daily-average month-on-month change; the two are listed and NOT reconciled. ⚑ EXPORTS, NEW DETAIL: China's July unwrought aluminium and semis exports 643,000 mt, +18.6% y/y but −9.6% m/m; January–July cumulative 4.04 million mt, +16.7% y/y. ⚑ The monthly run-rate has ALREADY TURNED DOWN month-on-month while the cumulative still reads strongly positive, which is the shape SMM's 'export demand will weaken gradually' warning predicted (derivation). SEVENTH, TRADE POLICY, NEW: the 12th BRICS Environment Ministers' Meeting, held in New Delhi under India's 2026 chairship, adopted a joint ministerial statement condemning the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as unilateral, punitive, discriminatory and protectionist, arguing it violates common-but-differentiated-responsibilities under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. CBAM has applied since January 1, 2026 to iron and steel, ALUMINIUM, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity, with importers buying certificates priced off the EU ETS net of any origin-country carbon price. ⚑ Operationally nothing changes and the ~47.5% default-value increase carried in prior editions is unaffected; what is new is coordinated sovereign opposition (interpretation). EIGHTH, MARKET EXPECTATIONS AS PUBLISHED ON AUGUST 21: brokerage morning notes named a 23,400–23,700 reference band for the SHFE main contract and support at 23,200–23,500. ⚑ AL2610 CLOSED 23,710 — TEN POINTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE BAND PUBLISHED THAT MORNING (derivation). NINTH, RESTATED WITHOUT CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR EDITION BECAUSE NO SESSION HAS TRADED. SHFE, from the exchange's August 21 daily file: AL2610 open 23,500, high 23,760, low 23,465, close 23,710, settlement 23,620, previous settlement 23,630; +115 (+0.49%) close-over-close, +80 (+0.34%) on the previous settlement; volume 175,287, open interest 267,438 (−2,599). AL2609 close 23,695 (+110, +0.47%), settlement 23,620, volume 60,450, open interest 116,527 (−11,891). AL2611 23,710; AL2612 23,680; AL2701 23,660; AL2702 23,670. Whole-product volume 295,207, open interest 608,693 (−10,065). AO2610 open 2,669, high 2,707, low 2,661, close 2,698, settlement 2,685; +35 (+1.31%) close-over-close; volume 241,712, open interest 284,910 (−26,473). AD2610 open 22,900, high 23,105, low 22,820, close 23,060, settlement 22,955; +115 (+0.50%); volume 6,611, open interest 18,052 (−251). MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, ⚑ UNCHANGED BY CONSTRUCTION: SHFE aluminium MA5 23,794.00, MA10 23,964.50, MA20 23,792.75, MA30 23,590.83, MA40 23,400.00, MA60 23,597.58 — the close of 23,710 is 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20, and 119.17 above MA30, 310.00 above MA40 and 112.42 ABOVE MA60. Twenty-session percentile 47.2; sixty-session percentile 54.6; retracement of the August 3-to-August 12 advance 89.1%. Alumina MA5 2,681.40, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,678.70, MA30 2,685.93, MA40 2,699.95, MA60 2,753.25 — the close of 2,698 is above four and below MA40 by 1.95 and MA60 by 55.25. Cast alloy MA5 23,052.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,265.50, MA30 23,170.67, MA40 23,066.75, MA60 23,097.17 — the close of 23,060 is above MA5 by 8.00 and misses MA40 by 6.75. LME, Westmetall official: August 21 cash $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%), three-month $3,244.00 (+$61.00, +1.92%), contango −$17.00, stocks 246,925 mt unchanged a fourth session; MA5 $3,218.30, MA10 $3,262.65, MA20 $3,245.62, MA40 $3,194.51, MA60 $3,293.41 — cash is above MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49. SHFE-to-LME ratio 7.347. ⊘ A SECONDARY SOURCE reports LME cancelled warrants falling from 16,250 mt to 14,750 mt (−9.23%) with live warrants at 244,650 mt; 244,650 + 14,750 = 259,400, which does NOT equal the 246,925 mt total this brief carries, so the source's own components do not reconcile and the figures are listed only. ⊘ TradingEconomics restates its August 21 aluminium print as $3,248.65 (+1.92%), month +1.82%, year +23.87%, against the $3,248.75 and +23.88% carried in the prior edition — a rounding restatement of the same series, which tracks the LME FORWARD and not the cash. TENTH, MACRO, RESTATED — no market has traded since Friday's close. Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor prices September 16 at 61.0% hold and 39.0% hike, October 28 at 47.0% hold / 44.1% one hike / 9.0% two hikes, and December 9 at approximately 71.1% odds of at least one hike. Dollar index 98.839, a third consecutive close below 99, month −2.26%. Brent $93.87, a second consecutive weekly gain above 5%. JACKSON HOLE RUNS AUGUST 27–29 WITH CHAIR WARSH SPEAKING AUGUST 28 — four trading sessions after Monday's reopen (derivation). China's August LPR held at 3.00% and 3.50% for a fifteenth month. ELEVENTH, CARRIED WITHOUT CHANGE: social inventory 875,000 mt (August 20); billet 143,000 mt (+500); weekly warehouse withdrawals 123,200 mt (−1,000 w/w); aluminium processing operating rate 60.0% (+0.1pp); alumina index 2,681.62 (August 20) with Shandong 2,650–2,720, Henan 2,690–2,750, Shanxi 2,680–2,740, Guangxi 2,580–2,640, Guizhou 2,720–2,790 and ex-China $363–364/mt FOB East Australia; national alumina weekly operating rate 74.33%; China alumina stocks 7.245 million mt; July alumina output 7.835 million mt (+5.2% y/y); July national weighted-average alumina full cost 2,718 yuan/mt; IAI global July primary output 6.16 million mt (−1.7% y/y) with Gulf output 293,000 mt (−44% y/y); EGA H1 production 602,000 t (−47% y/y); Japan's three major ports 201,000 mt at end-July; SMM forecast bands SHFE 23,200–24,000 and LME $3,150–3,250. ⊘ Alcoa's 2026 alumina production guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 t to 9.5–9.6 million t, attributed to Cyclone Narelle and contamination at Pinjarra, is carried as secondary-source context; its announcement date is not established here and it is NOT treated as new.
Steven Yuan
⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED — THIS EDITION ADDS CORROBORATION, NOT PRICE Every futures price, settlement and moving average is restated from August 21 unchanged by construction. What is new is weekly data, weekend news and cross-caliber checks
⚑ A THIRD INVENTORY CALIBER ARRIVES: SHFE 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w August 17–21 exchange weekly stock report. Against −13,642 mt the prior week — the draw ACCELERATED by 4,658 mt. Implied prior level 422,097
⚑ ALL THREE INVENTORY CALIBERS NOW POINT THE SAME WAY SMM social 875,000 mt (−23kt Thu/Thu), SHFE weekly 403,797 mt (−18,300 w/w), LME 246,925 mt frozen. ⊘ Different calibers, listed not reconciled — but none is building
⚑ NANHAI +150 LED EVERY SPOT CALIBER ON AUGUST 21 Against Shanghai spot +90, Changjiang +80, Huatong +80 — and AL2610's +115. South China was the ONLY spot caliber to beat the board
⚑ THE SOUTH-EAST SPREAD WIDENED TO 450, THE WEEK'S WIDEST Nanhai minus Shanghai ran 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 across Aug 17–21. An independent source corroborating SMM's South China +160
⚑ TWO UNRELATED SOURCES, ONE CONCLUSION SMM's regional premia (+160 / 0 / −60) and cnal's absolute price table were compiled independently and agree that South China led. That is corroboration, not repetition
Monday-to-Friday: South China fell the least of four calibers Changjiang −410 (−1.70%), Huatong −390 (−1.62%), Shanghai −370 (−1.54%), NANHAI −270 (−1.11%). The regional skew held all week, not just Friday
⚑ ADC12 23,900, −300 w/w — but A00 fell 520 to 23,600 The ADC12 premium over A00 therefore widened from 80 yuan to 300 yuan in a single week, +220. Secondary held better than primary
⚑ AND THAT IS A COST STORY, NOT A DEMAND STORY Scrap would not follow: A00-to-shredded 1,150, A00-to-mixed-extrusion 2,360. Shredded 19,900–20,700. Reverse-invoicing squeeze deepening
⚑ July aluminium scrap imports 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m From June's 133,000 mt, on the inverted China-overseas spread and shipment delays. The raw-material constraint on secondary is tightening, not easing
Secondary aluminium operating rate flat at 49.1% Against the aluminium processing rate of 60.0%. Cast alloy ingot inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500 m/m) is confirmed at the SMM caliber
⚑ HORMUZ TRAFFIC AT ~20% OF THE PRE-WAR AVERAGE Iran will admit IRAQI OIL TANKERS only. Oil-specific — it does not restore bulk alumina shipping to Gulf refineries and smelters (interpretation)
⚑ TRUMP POSTS 'NEW US TERRITORY' OVER THE STRAIT (AUG 22) An ally of the supreme leader answers that Iran 'will not submit.' The 60-day deadline lapsed Aug 17 with no talks under way or scheduled
⚑ THE US SANCTIONS PACKAGE IS DETAILED MONDAY, AUGUST 24 Inside the session this watchlist covers. The escalation lands on the same day SHFE reopens and the Monday inventory print publishes
⚑ NANSHAN INTL: VOLUMES +15%, PROFIT −74.8% H1 revenue $415.032m (−30.5%), net income ex-items $62.682m from $248.246m, ASP −39.5%. The alumina surplus in a P&L rather than an index
China July output 3.9 mt, +3.8% y/y; ex-China −6.7% y/y But overseas DAILY AVERAGE output rose 1.6% m/m on Middle East and Iceland restarts and ramps in Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Brazil, Norway, Spain, Australia
⚑ THE GULF HOLE IS REFILLING AT THE MARGIN A wide year-on-year gap and a positive month-on-month margin are not in conflict — that is exactly what the IAI's global −1.7% y/y describes (derivation)
⚑ July exports 643,000 mt: +18.6% y/y but −9.6% m/m January–July 4.04 mt, +16.7% y/y. The monthly run-rate has already turned down while the cumulative still reads strong — SMM's warning, arriving
⚑ AO2610 at 2,698 trades 20 yuan BELOW July full cost of 2,718 The alumina board is beneath the national weighted-average full cost. Cost support and surplus are fighting on the same chart (derivation)
BRICS calls CBAM 'discriminatory' — nothing changes operationally 12th Environment Ministers' Meeting, New Delhi. CBAM has covered aluminium since Jan 1, 2026; the ~47.5% default-value increase is unaffected
⚑ The close of 23,710 finished ABOVE the morning's broker band Houses published a 23,400–23,700 reference range on August 21 morning; the close printed ten points through the top of it
MA60 (23,597.58) held by 112.42 — restated, unchanged The close remains below MA5 (23,794.00) by 84.00, MA10 (23,964.50) by 254.50 and MA20 (23,792.75) by 82.75. Three of six reclaimed
LME cash $3,227.00, contango −$17.00, stocks frozen a 4th day 246,925 mt across five identical prints. Cash above MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49. SHFE-LME ratio 7.347
Macro restated: hike odds 39.0%, dollar 98.839, Brent $93.87 Nothing has traded since Friday. October's hold is below 50% at 47.0%; December implies 71.1% for at least one hike; the dollar held below 99 a third day
⚑ Jackson Hole is four sessions from Monday's reopen August 27–29, with Chair Warsh's first address as Chair on August 28. The hawkish repricing has three sessions to run before it is tested
⊘ The Friday night session is STILL not retrievable It belongs to the August 24 trading day and will not appear in an exchange file until after Monday's session. Second consecutive edition carried as unavailable
⊘ SMM's own texts conflict on the word 'accumulation' The scrap weekly describes 'continued social inventory accumulation' while SMM's ingot social series reads 875,000 mt and falling. Listed, NOT reconciled
⊘ A secondary LME warrant breakdown does not self-reconcile Cancelled 14,750 (from 16,250) plus live 244,650 sums to 259,400, not the 246,925 total. Listed only; no warrant ratio is published from it
⊘ SHFE warrants (290,536, Aug 19) ≠ SHFE weekly stocks (403,797) Two different exchange calibers. Both are listed; neither is used to adjust the other, and no combined figure is published

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期为周末版(周日刊),写于 8月23日(周日)上午。
  • ⚑ 自 8月21日(周五)15:00 收盘以来没有任何交易时段。因此本期所载全部期货价格、结算价、持仓量,以及三个品种十八条沪铝系均线与五条伦铝均线,均按构造与上期完全相同,系「转载」而非「重算」。
  • ⊘ 8月21日夜盘(周五 21:00 至周六 01:00)归属 8月24日交易日,须待周一日盘结束后方会出现在交易所日行情文件中。连续第二期按「未取得」载入,不作估计。
  • ⚑ 本期的增量不是价格,而是「相互印证」:上期发布之后才刊出的周度数据、周末新闻流,以及跨口径交叉验证。

⚑ 沪铝:数据转载,均线按构造不变

  • AL2610(主力,持仓 267,438 手,−2,599):开 23,500,高 23,760,低 23,465,收 23,710,结算 23,620,前结算 23,630;收盘对收盘 +115(+0.49%),较前结算价 +80(+0.34%);成交 175,287 手。
  • AL2609 收 23,695(+110,+0.47%),结算 23,620,成交 60,450 手,持仓 116,527 手(−11,891)。AL2611 收 23,710;AL2612 收 23,680;AL2701 收 23,660;AL2702 收 23,670。品种合计成交 295,207 手,持仓 608,693 手(−10,065)。
  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(按构造不变):MA5 23,794.00、MA10 23,964.50、MA20 23,792.75、MA30 23,590.83、MA40 23,400.00、MA60 23,597.58。收盘 23,710 低于 MA5 84.00 元、低于 MA10 254.50 元、低于 MA20 82.75 元;高于 MA30 119.17 元、高于 MA40 310.00 元、高于 MA60 112.42 元。
  • ⚑ 20 日分位 47.2%,60 日分位 54.6%;对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例 89.1%,收盘价高于 8月3日起点 70 元。
  • ⚑ 新增交叉验证:8月21日早间多家机构发布的沪铝主力运行区间参考为 23,400–23,700 元,支撑参考 23,200–23,500 元。当日收盘 23,710 元,高出该区间上沿 10 元(此为推算)。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:转载

  • AO2610(主力,持仓 284,910 手,−26,473):开 2,669,高 2,707,低 2,661,收 2,698,结算 2,685;收盘对收盘 +35(+1.31%);成交 241,712 手。均线 MA5 2,681.40、MA10 2,691.50、MA20 2,678.70、MA30 2,685.93、MA40 2,699.95、MA60 2,753.25——收盘高于四条,仅低于 MA40 1.95、低于 MA60 55.25。
  • ⚑ 一条值得记录的水平关系:AO2610 收盘 2,698 元,低于 SMM 所载 7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元/吨 20 元。盘面正在完全成本之下交易(此为推算)。
  • AD2610(主力,持仓 18,052 手,−251):开 22,900,高 23,105,低 22,820,收 23,060,结算 22,955;收盘对收盘 +115(+0.50%);成交 6,611 手。均线 MA5 23,052.00、MA10 23,257.00、MA20 23,265.50、MA30 23,170.67、MA40 23,066.75、MA60 23,097.17——收盘高于 MA5 8.00 元,距 MA40 差 6.75 元。

⚑ 伦铝:转载

  • Westmetall 官方口径:8月21日现货结算 3,227.00 美元(+45.00,+1.41%),三个月 3,244.00 美元(+61.00,+1.92%);contango −17.00 美元;库存 246,925 吨,连续第四个交易日零变动(五个相同印记)。
  • 伦铝均线:MA5 3,218.30、MA10 3,262.65、MA20 3,245.62、MA40 3,194.51、MA60 3,293.41 美元。现货高于 MA5 8.70、高于 MA40 32.49,低于 MA10 35.65、低于 MA20 18.62、低于 MA60 66.41。沪伦比值 7.347。
  • ⊘ 一家二手来源载伦铝注销仓单由 16,250 吨降至 14,750 吨(−9.23%),同时可用仓单 244,650 吨。244,650 + 14,750 = 259,400 吨,与本简报所载 246,925 吨总量不符——该来源自身分项即不自洽,故仅列示,不据此计算任何注销比例。
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics 将 8月21日铝价重述为 3,248.65 美元(+1.92%),月度 +1.82%,年度 +23.87%,对照上期所载 3,248.75 美元与 +23.88%——系同一序列的四舍五入重述,该序列跟踪伦铝远月而非现货。

解读

  • 周日版不可能新增价格,先说清楚这一点比什么都重要。 想看行情的读者应参阅上期;本期能做的,是检验周五那次转向能否经受住「由未曾看过周五走势图的人所编制的数据」的检验。
  • 在三个地方,它经受住了:库存、地区价差、再生铝相对强弱。 三者详见后文各栏。
  • 一条不宜忽略的技术细节: 收盘 23,710 元高出当日早间机构区间上沿 10 元。这不构成任何信号,但说明周五的收盘位置超出了当日开盘时市场自身给出的预期区间。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 新增:一套独立于 SMM 的五市场现货价格表(8月17–21日)

  • ⚑ 世铝网口径,8月17日→8月21日:
    • 有色宝长江:24,080 → 23,890 → 23,670 → 23,590 → 23,670(周五 +80,周一至周五 −410,−1.70%)
    • 上海现货:24,050 → 23,890 → 23,660 → 23,590 → 23,680(周五 +90,周一至周五 −370,−1.54%)
    • 南海有色:24,400 → 24,290 → 24,060 → 23,980 → 24,130(周五 +150,周一至周五 −270,−1.11%)
    • 华通 99.7%:24,120 → 23,950 → 23,720 → 23,650 → 23,730(周五 +80,周一至周五 −390,−1.62%)
  • ⚑ 8月21日当日:南海 +150 > AL2610 +115 > 上海现货 +90 > 长江 +80 = 华通 +80。华南在所有口径中领涨,且是唯一跑赢盘面的现货口径;两套华东口径均落后于盘面(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 南海减上海价差:350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450。周五为本周最阔(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 周一至周五跌幅:南海 −270 为四套口径中最小,长江 −410 为最大(此为推算)。区域偏斜贯穿整周,而非仅周五一日。
  • ⊘ 该来源自身所载「长江周内 −1.26%」采用的周度窗口与此处计算的周一至周五窗口不同,仅列示,不调和。

⚑ SMM 现货与基差:A00 仍未取得,但可作跨口径推断(标注为解读)

  • ⚑ SMM 8月21日分地区成交升贴水(对 AL2609):华南升水 160 元、华东平水 0 元、华中贴水 60 元(转载)。
  • ⊘ SMM 8月21日 A00 绝对报价仍未取得,继续载入 8月20日的 23,600 元/吨(区间 23,580–23,620)。
  • ⚑ 跨口径推断(此为解读,非 SMM 报价):8月20日世铝网「上海现货」为 23,590 元,而 SMM A00 为 23,600 元,两者偏移 10 元;该口径 8月21日上涨 90 元至 23,680 元,据此推断 SMM A00 约在 23,690 元附近。本简报不以 SMM 口径发布此数字。
  • ⚑ 时点口径提示,本周尤其重要:SMM 于 10:15 定 A00 报价,而 AL2610 于 15:00 收在距当日低点 245 元之上。因此任何以 10:15 报价计算出的「现货贴水盘面」,本周都是日内反转造成的时点差,而非现货疲弱(此为解读)。

⚑ 新增:SMM 废铝与再生铝周度评述(8月20日,周四对周四)

  • ⚑ SMM ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨,较上周四 −300 元(隐含上周四为 24,200 元)。
  • ⚑ SMM A00 报 23,600 元/吨,较上周四的 24,120 元 −520 元。
  • ⚑ 由此:ADC12 对 A00 的升水在一周内由 80 元扩大至 300 元,一周扩大 220 元(此为推算)。再生强于原生。
  • 价差:A00 与混合型材废铝价差 2,360 元/吨;A00 与破碎生铝价差 1,150 元/吨;破碎生铝区间 19,900–20,700 元/吨。海外 ADC12 报价 3,050–3,190 美元/吨。
  • 再生铝开工率持平于 49.1%。铸造铝合金锭库存 28,100 吨,环比 +2,500 吨(与上期所载一致,本期获得确认)。
  • ⚑ 7 月废铝进口约 119,600 吨,较 6 月的 133,000 吨环比 −10.1%(此为推算),原因为国内外价格倒挂与到货延迟。
  • ⚑ 政策:反向开票政策影响持续深化,合规发票废铝稀缺性不断上升,已对废铝利用企业的开工率与采购形成约束。
  • ⊘ 同一份 SMM 评述中出现「社会库存持续累库」的表述,而 SMM 自身的铝锭社会库存序列为 87.5 万吨且在下降。该表述最可能指向合金与铝棒板块而非铝锭,但两处文本本期仅列示,不调和。

氧化铝:转载,叠加一条新增的利润表证据

  • ⊘ SMM 8月21日氧化铝指数未取得,继续载入 8月20日的 2,681.62 元/吨;分地区现货:山东 2,650–2,720、河南 2,690–2,750、山西 2,680–2,740、广西 2,580–2,640、贵州 2,720–2,790;海外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 澳洲东部(转载)。
  • 转载:全国氧化铝周度开工率 74.33%,周产量 168.8 万吨,中国氧化铝总库存 724.5 万吨;7 月产量 783.5 万吨(同比 +5.2%);7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元/吨。
  • ⊘ SMM 自身分析的标题为「氧化铝弱势难改:成本支撑对阵过剩,2,600 关口受考验」——该 2,600 元水平与上期所载市场评论一致。
  • ⊘ 美铝将 2026 年氧化铝产量指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨(Pinjarra 精炼厂受 Narelle 气旋与污染影响),本期按二手来源背景资料载入,其公布日期未经本简报确认,不作为新增事项处理。

解读

  • 一家给出华南偏紧的结论,是一份评估;两家互不相关、以不同单位给出同一结论,则是一个事实。 SMM 的升贴水与世铝网的绝对价格表由不同机构独立编制,而两者在同一天指向同一方向。
  • ADC12 的相对强势不是需求故事,而是成本故事。 废铝不跟跌:破碎生铝守住 19,900–20,700 元,反向开票使合规货源持续稀缺,7 月进口环比再降 10.1%。再生铝开工率仍卡在 49.1%,合金库存仍在累积——成本支撑不等于需求改善。
  • 但「不会塌的成本」正是底部的构成材料。 这是本期对再生铝板块的全部结论,不宜再多。

三 · 库存

⚑ 新增:第三套库存口径到货,且在加速

  • ⚑ 上期所 8月17日–8月21日库存周报:铝 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨。
  • ⚑ 上一周为 −13,642 吨。本周去库速度加快 4,658 吨;隐含上周水平为 422,097 吨(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 另:上期所铝期货仓单 8月19日为 290,536 吨,较上一交易日 −2,393 吨。仓单与库存周报为不同口径(仓单仅统计已注册为有效仓单的金属),两者本期仅列示,不调和。
  • ⚑ 转载:SMM 国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存 8月20日为 87.5 万吨,较周一 −1.1 万吨、较上周四 −2.3 万吨;序列 100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨);铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨);伦铝库存 246,925 吨,连续第四日零变动。
  • ⊘ 三套铝锭相关库存口径(SMM 社会库存、上期所库存周报、上期所仓单)窗口与统计范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

  • 本简报在三套口径之间只提出一个狭窄但足够的结论:所有能看到的库存序列都在持平或下降,没有一套在累积。
  • ⚑ 交易所口径的去库在加速(−13,642 → −18,300),这是本期新增的、方向上偏多的证据。 但它同时是「去库属性」问题的另一面:上期所库存的减少既可能来自消费,也可能来自仓单注销后的转移,本简报无法区分,故不据此上调对需求的判断(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 与之相对,周度出库量环比下降 0.1 万吨的状况仍未改善。 库存在降、出库不增,这一组合的结论与上期相同:去库由到货减少驱动,支撑价格但不指示需求。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 转载:自周五收盘以来无任何市场交易

  • 美联储:Investing.com 联储利率监测器对 9月16日 FOMC 定价为维持 61.0% / 加息 39.0%;10月28日为维持 47.0% / 加息一次 44.1% / 加息两次 9.0%;12月9日隐含至少加息一次概率约 71.1%(全部转载)。
  • 美元指数 98.839,为连续第三个交易日收在 99 下方,月度 −2.26%,年度 +1.15%(转载)。
  • 布伦特 93.87 美元,连续第二周涨幅超 5%(转载)。
  • ⚑ 时钟前移:杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 8月27–29 日,沃什主席首次以主席身份发表演讲为 8月28日——距周一(8月24日)重新开盘仅四个交易日(此为推算)。
  • 中国政策转载:8月 LPR 维持 3.00% 与 3.50%,为连续第十五个月不变。

⚑ 新增:周末地缘,全部为 8月21–22日事项

  • ⚑ 霍尔木兹海峡通行量约为战前均值的 20%。
  • ⚑ 伊朗官媒称,伊朗将放行伊拉克油轮通过该海峡。
  • ⚑ 8月22日,特朗普发布一张标注「新美国领土」(New US Territory)的海峡图片;伊朗最高领袖的一位亲密盟友回应称,特朗普的言辞「源于绝望」,伊朗「不会屈服」。
  • ⚑ 美国财政部升级版制裁方案将于 8月24日(周一)公布细节——即本期关注清单所覆盖的同一个交易日。
  • 60 天期限已于 8月17日到期,目前无任何谈判正在进行或已安排;特朗普另曾威胁打击斡旋方阿曼。
  • 美国零售汽油价格因通行量低迷而同比上涨近 1 美元。

⚑ 新增:贸易政策——金砖国家就 CBAM 发表联合声明

  • ⚑ 第 12 届金砖国家环境部长会议(印度 2026 年主席国任期,新德里)通过联合部长声明,谴责欧盟碳边境调节机制为「单边的、惩罚性的、歧视性的和保护主义的」,并主张其违反《联合国气候变化框架公约》与《巴黎协定》确立的「共同但有区别的责任」原则。
  • CBAM 自 2026年1月1日起适用于钢铁、铝、水泥、化肥、氢和电力;进口商须按欧盟碳市场价格购买证书,并扣减原产国已付碳价。
  • ⚑ 操作层面无任何改变,本简报此前所载铝制品缺省值上调约 47.5% 并追溯至 1月1日的事实不受影响;新增的是首次出现协调一致的主权层面反对(此为解读)。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • 宏观栏本期处于冻结状态,应当照此对待。 加息概率、美元、原油自周五以来一个数字都没有变,周一之前也不会变。
  • ⚑ 变化的是时钟,不是数据。 杰克逊霍尔已进入四个交易日的射程,沃什 8月28日演讲是结算窗口。连续三个交易日鹰派重定价而美元不涨,要么是真实脱钩,要么是仓位造成的假象,这个问题会在下一周内、而非下一个月内得到回答。
  • ⚑ 周一的风险高度集中。 美国制裁细则、SHFE 重新开盘、周一库存印记落在同一天,且周五夜盘四小时未被本简报观察。这是本周风险最集中的单一时段。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 新增:供应算式分层——同比缺口很大,环比正在回填

  • ⚑ 中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%。
  • ⚑ 中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%,主因中东电解铝厂开工率下降。
  • ⚑ 但海外日均产量环比 +1.6%,源于中东与冰岛复产,以及印尼、越南、印度、巴西、挪威、西班牙、澳大利亚的产能爬坡。
  • ⚑ 两者并不矛盾:同比缺口宽,环比边际在回填。这正是国际铝业协会全球 7 月产量 616 万吨、同比 −1.7% 的正确读法(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 上述 +3.8% 的中国口径,与此前各期所载「+1.6%」为不同口径(后者指海外日均产量的环比变化),两者仅列示,不调和。
  • 转载:国际铝业协会海湾地区 7 月产量 29.3 万吨(同比 −44%);EGA 上半年产量 60.2 万吨(同比 −47%);月末国内产能约 4,629 万吨;7 月铝水比例 78.3%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%。

⚑ 新增:氧化铝过剩体现在利润表上

  • ⚑ 南山铝业国际 2026 上半年:收入 4.15032 亿美元,上年同期 5.96814 亿美元,同比 −30.5%;扣除非经常项目后净利 6,268.2 万美元,上年同期 2.48246 亿美元,同比 −74.8%。
  • ⚑ 同期氧化铝销量同比 +15%,平均售价同比 −39.5%。公司此前指引区间为 5,800 万–6,800 万美元,实际落于该区间中部。
  • ⚑ 销量上升 15%、利润下滑 74.8%——全部由价格完成。这是氧化铝过剩以利润表、而非以价格指数表述的形式(此为推算)。

⚑ 新增:出口月度动能已经转向

  • ⚑ 中国 7 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 64.3 万吨,同比 +18.6%,但环比 −9.6%;1–7 月累计 404 万吨,同比 +16.7%。
  • ⚑ 月度运行速率已经环比下行,而累计口径仍呈强势正增长——这正是 SMM「出口需求将逐步走弱」所预测的形态(此为推算)。仅引用 +16.7% 者,引用的是过去。
  • 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个子行业全部收缩;7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%,新能源车出口 +147.8%;1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%;新房价格同比 −3.2%;铝加工开工率 60.0%(环比 +0.1 个百分点)。

解读

  • 供应端本期最应避免的错误,是只引用同比。 中国以外同比 −6.7% 是海湾缺口;海外日均环比 +1.6% 是缺口在被回填。两者必须同时呈现。
  • 氧化铝一栏的净方向没有变,而且证据变硬了。 一家精炼商多卖了 15% 的货,却只赚到去年四分之一的钱;与此同时国内 7 月产量同比 +5.2%、开工率未降、盘面在完全成本之下 20 元交易。成本支撑与过剩仍在对峙,而本周的新证据落在过剩一侧。
  • 出口是本期唯一一条「由强转弱」的确定性证据。 环比 −9.6% 比任何预测都更有力。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 8月21日:两套独立口径同时指向华南

  • ⚑ SMM 分地区成交升贴水(对 AL2609):华南 +160 元、华东 0 元(平水)、华中 −60 元。三地较 8月20日的 +75/+115、−20/0、−70/−90 同日全部改善,为连续第三个交易日(转载)。
  • ⚑ 世铝网绝对价格口径,同日涨幅:南海 +150 > AL2610 +115 > 上海现货 +90 > 长江 +80 = 华通 +80(新增,此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 南海减上海价差 450 元,为 8月17–21 日五个交易日中最阔;序列 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450(新增,此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 周一至周五:南海 −270 元(−1.11%)为四套口径中跌幅最小,长江 −410 元(−1.70%)为最大(新增,此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 8月21日情绪指数未取得;延续载入 8月20日数据:华东出货 3.2、采购 3.16;华中出货 3.1、采购 2.9。

解读

  • ⚑ 这是本期最有价值的一条:上期关于「现货强于盘面」的判断,此前完全依赖单一机构的升贴水评估;本期由一套以绝对价格编制、与 SMM 无关的口径独立印证。 两者在同一天、以不同单位,得出同一方向。
  • 同时必须指出反向的限制:华南升水 160 元已是本轮最高,南海减上海 450 元亦是本周最阔。 极值本身不构成延续的理由;周一是否守住,才是判据。
  • 华东的落后需要正确解释。 上海现货 +90 元低于 AL2610 的 +115 元,表面看是现货落后;但 SMM 于 10:15 定价而盘面在 15:00 收在距低点 245 元之上,该差值是时点差(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

  • ⚑ 新增:上期所周度库存 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨,去库较上一周的 −13,642 吨加速 4,658 吨。
  • ⚑ 新增:三套库存口径(SMM 社会库存 87.5 万吨、上期所周报 40.38 万吨、伦铝 246,925 吨)全部持平或下降,无一累库。
  • ⚑ 新增:南海有色 8月21日 +150 元,为所有现货口径中唯一跑赢盘面(AL2610 +115)者。
  • ⚑ 新增:南海减上海价差 450 元为本周最阔;周一至周五南海跌幅 −270 元为四套口径中最小。
  • ⚑ 新增:两套互不相关的口径(SMM 升贴水、世铝网绝对价格)在同一天指向同一结论,华南偏紧由「评估」升级为「事实」。
  • ⚑ 新增:ADC12 对 A00 升水由 80 元扩大至 300 元;废铝不跟跌,A00 与破碎生铝价差 1,150 元,破碎生铝守住 19,900–20,700 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:7 月废铝进口 119,600 吨,环比 −10.1%;反向开票政策深化,合规发票废铝稀缺性持续上升。
  • ⚑ 新增:霍尔木兹通行量仍仅为战前均值的 20%;伊朗仅放行伊拉克油轮,散装氧化铝航运未获恢复。
  • ⚑ 新增:美国升级版制裁方案 8月24日公布细节,地缘风险溢价未解除。
  • ⚑ 新增:AL2610 收盘 23,710 元高出当日早间机构区间上沿(23,700)10 元。
  • ⚑ 转载:MA60(23,597.58)以 112.42 元守住,上期破位仍为「假突破」;20 日分位 47.2%,60 日分位 54.6%。
  • ⚑ 转载:回撤比例 89.1%,收盘价高于 8月3日起点 70 元;8月21日低点 23,465 元已被测试并守住。
  • ⚑ 转载:三地成交升贴水连续第三个交易日全部改善(华南 +160、华东平水、华中 −60)。
  • ⚑ 转载:伦铝现货 3,227.00 美元(+45.00,+1.41%),收复 MA5 与 MA40;库存 246,925 吨为绝对低位并连续五个相同印记。
  • ⚑ 转载:国际铝业协会海湾 7 月产量同比 −44% 至 29.3 万吨,全球同比 −1.7%。
  • ⚑ 转载:美元连续第三日守在 99 下方(98.839),在加息概率累计上行 8.4 个百分点期间未能反弹。
  • ⚑ 转载:布伦特 93.87 美元,连续第二周涨幅超 5%,成本端与风险端双向偏多。
  • ⚑ 转载:AO2610 一日收复四条均线(+35,+1.31%),且盘面 2,698 元低于 7 月完全成本 2,718 元 20 元,成本端具备反向支撑。
  • ⚑ 转载:国内对淘汰产能违规运行开展合规检查,预计对供应形成减量影响。
  • ⚑ 转载:AD2610 收复 MA5(+115,+0.50%),20 日分位由 0.7% 升至 17.0%。
  • 转载:7 月铝水比例 78.3%、铸锭量同比 −15.1%,持续压制铝锭形成量。
  • 转载:日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
  • 转载:西南地区被动减产延续;EGA 上半年产量同比 −47%。
  • 转载:铝加工开工率 60.0%,环比 +0.1 个百分点。
  • 转载:1–7 月铝材出口累计同比 +16.7%;7 月未锻轧铝合金出口同比 +135.1%。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 新增:南山铝业国际上半年氧化铝销量 +15% 而扣非净利 −74.8% 至 6,268.2 万美元,平均售价 −39.5%——过剩已进入利润表。
  • ⚑ 新增:中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%,国内供应仍在增长。
  • ⚑ 新增:海外日均产量环比 +1.6%,中东与冰岛复产、印尼越南印度巴西挪威西班牙澳洲爬坡——海湾缺口正在边际回填。
  • ⚑ 新增:7 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口环比 −9.6%,月度运行速率已经转向,累计 +16.7% 属滞后指标。
  • ⚑ 新增:再生铝开工率仍卡在 49.1%;ADC12 绝对水平仍下跌 300 元至 23,900 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:金砖国家虽反对 CBAM,但 CBAM 自 2026年1月1日起对铝的适用与约 47.5% 的缺省值上调均未改变。
  • ⚑ 新增:A00 周度下跌 520 元(24,120 → 23,600),为现货端的绝对弱势。
  • ⚑ 转载:收盘 23,710 元仍低于 MA5(23,794.00)84.00 元、低于 MA10(23,964.50)254.50 元、低于 MA20(23,792.75)82.75 元。
  • ⚑ 转载:MA5、MA20 与已破的 8月14日低点 23,795 构成一条密集阻力带,自破位以来未被触及。
  • ⚑ 转载:周线仍收跌 175 元(−0.73%),为连续第二周下跌且跌幅大于上一周;伦铝周线 −21.00 美元(−0.65%)。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨,环比减少 0.1 万吨——去库由到货减少驱动,而非消费放量。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝棒库存 14.3 万吨,较周一增加 0.05 万吨,与铝锭方向相反;铸造铝合金社会库存 2.81 万吨,连续第二周累库且幅度扩大。
  • ⚑ 转载:9 月加息概率 39.0%,10 月维持概率跌破 50% 至 47.0%,12 月至少加息一次概率 71.1%。
  • ⚑ 转载:中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;全国开工率 74.33% 未下调;总库存 724.5 万吨。
  • ⚑ 转载:东南亚 ADC12 继续走弱,马来 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元(−0.48%),泰国 FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元(−0.16%);非洲合金锭 2,850 美元/吨冲击区域价格。
  • ⚑ 转载:伦铝库存连续第四个交易日零变动,35 日去库序列仍处中止状态;contango 由 −1.00 美元走阔至 −17.00 美元。
  • ⚑ 转载:加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%;SMM 明确警示出口需求将逐步走弱。
  • 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个子行业全部收缩;7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%;1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%;新房价格同比 −3.2%。
  • ⊘ 周五夜盘四小时未被观察,周一开盘将包含本简报未见的信息。

八 · 一句话观点

自周五收盘以来没有任何交易时段,因此本期不新增价格、全部均线按构造不变,其价值在于周五那次转向能否被独立数据印证——答案是在三处得到印证:其一,第三套库存口径到货且在加速,上期所 8月17–21 日库存周报载铝 403,797 吨、周环比 −18,300 吨(上一周为 −13,642 吨),与 SMM 社会库存 87.5 万吨、伦铝 246,925 吨并列后,三套口径全部持平或下降、无一累库(三者口径与窗口不同,仅列示不调和);其二,世铝网独立编制的五市场绝对价格表显示 8月21日南海 +150 元、上海现货 +90 元、长江与华通各 +80 元,而 AL2610 为 +115 元——华南是唯一跑赢盘面的现货口径,南海减上海价差扩至本周最阔的 450 元,周内跌幅亦为四者最小,使上期「现货强于盘面」的判断由单一机构评估升级为两个不相关来源的交叉印证;其三,SMM 周度评述显示 ADC12 跌 300 元至 23,900 元而 A00 跌 520 元至 23,600 元,ADC12 对 A00 升水由 80 元扩大至 300 元,原因是废铝不跟跌与反向开票政策深化、7 月废铝进口环比 −10.1%,属成本支撑而非需求改善;而反向证据同样明确:南山铝业国际上半年氧化铝销量 +15% 却扣非净利 −74.8%、售价 −39.5%,过剩已进入利润表,中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨同比 +3.8%、海外日均产量环比 +1.6% 说明海湾缺口正在边际回填,7 月出口环比 −9.6% 显示月度动能已经转向,且价格仍低于 MA5、MA10 与 MA20,周五夜盘四小时未被观察;故本期结论与上期方向一致但证据更硬——区间下沿 23,465 元已被测试且获三套库存口径与两套现货口径支持,上沿 23,792.75/23,794.00/23,795 自破位以来未被触及,周末信息未移动任何一端,只是让下沿更有据可依,而周一(8月24日)美国制裁细则、SHFE 重新开盘与周度库存印记落在同一天,为本周风险最集中的单一时段。

九 · 周一(8月24日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 补齐周五夜盘,并检验 MA60(23,597.58)与密集阻力带(23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795)。本期连续第二次无法载入 8月21日夜盘,意味着周一开盘时市场已消化了本简报未观察的四小时交易。首要工作是补齐该时段的开、高、低、收:若其收在 23,597.58 下方,则周五日盘的看涨外包线应被降格为盘中现象;若其站上 23,795,则 MA5、MA20 与已破的 8月14日低点三重阻力同时清除,区间上沿上移至 MA10 的 23,964.50。下方序列:23,590.83(MA30)→ 23,525(8月20日低点)→ 23,465(8月21日低点)→ 23,400.00(MA40)→ 23,200(SMM 区间下沿)。
  • ⚑ 美国财政部制裁细则(周一公布)与霍尔木兹通行量。当前通行量约为战前均值的 20%,伊朗仅放行伊拉克油轮——该让步为石油专属,并不恢复通往海湾精炼厂与电解铝厂的散装氧化铝航运。关注两点:制裁是否触及铝或氧化铝相关的实体与航运;以及通行量是否在制裁公布后进一步下滑。若海湾原料通道进一步收紧,国际铝业协会 8 月产量数据将继续录得巨幅同比降幅;若出现散装货放行的迹象,则全球缺口叙事将首次出现方向性松动。
  • ⚑ 华南升水能否守住 +160 元,以及南海减上海价差能否守住 450 元。这是本期两套独立口径共同指向的位置,也是本轮极值。若周一华南回落至 +100 元以下、且南海减上海回落至 400 元下方,则周五应被读作周末前的挺价;若华东由平水转为升水,则「现货强于盘面」将由三日序列升级为结构性事实。同时关注华中 −60 元是否继续收敛。
  • ⚑ 周一社会库存印记,以及出库量能否跟上。8月20日为 87.5 万吨,周一(8月24日)的印记将决定这轮去库是否延续至第六个印记。关键在于组合:若库存继续下降而出库量继续下滑(上周 12.32 万吨,环比 −0.1 万吨),则去库的供给端属性再度确认,对价格的支撑弱于表面;若出库量回升,需求端才真正开始参与。铝棒库存(14.3 万吨,+0.05 万吨)能否由增转降是同一问题的另一面。
  • ⚑ 上期所库存周报的加速能否延续,以及仓单口径的方向。本周 −18,300 吨较上周 −13,642 吨加速,是本期新增的偏多证据;但交易所库存的减少既可能来自消费,也可能来自仓单注销后的转移,本简报无法区分。关注下一份周报是否延续加速,以及仓单序列(8月19日 290,536 吨,−2,393)是否同向下行——两者同向下行才能排除单纯的仓单腾挪。
  • ⚑ 伦铝能否守住 MA5(3,218.30 美元)与 MA40(3,194.51 美元),以及库存在第五个相同印记后的首次变动方向。若现货上行触及 MA20(3,245.62)与 SMM 区间上沿(3,250 美元),伦铝将先于沪铝完成区间上移;同时关注 contango 是否由 −17.00 美元继续走阔,以及沪伦比值(7.347)是否延续压缩——比值继续下行意味着买盘仍在海外。
  • ⚑ 杰克逊霍尔倒计时(8月27–29 日,沃什 8月28日)与美元的最后确认窗口。9 月加息概率 39.0%、10 月维持概率 47.0%、12 月至少加息一次 71.1%,而美元连续三日守在 99 下方。周一至周三是这一脱钩能否维持的最后三个交易日:若概率继续升向 45% 而美元仍不反弹,则汇率端与利率路径的脱钩成为可用的宏观事实;若美元回到 99 上方,宏观利空须重新计入。氧化铝方面同步关注全国开工率(74.33%)在 7 月产量同比 +5.2% 与南山国际利润表证据之后是否终于下调。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This is the weekend edition, Sunday instalment, written on the morning of Sunday, August 23.
  • ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED SINCE FRIDAY AUGUST 21 AT 15:00. Every futures price, settlement and open-interest figure in this edition, and all eighteen SHFE and five LME moving averages, are IDENTICAL to the prior edition’s by construction. They are restated, not re-derived.
  • ⊘ The August 21 night session (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to the AUGUST 24 trading day and will not appear in an exchange file until after Monday’s session. It is carried as NOT RETRIEVABLE for a second consecutive edition and is NOT estimated.
  • ⚑ What this edition adds is not price but CORROBORATION: weekly-caliber data that published after the prior edition went out, weekend news flow, and cross-caliber checks against sources that were not looking at Friday’s chart.

⚑ SHFE: restated, averages unchanged by construction

  • AL2610 (main, open interest 267,438, −2,599): open 23,500, high 23,760, low 23,465, close 23,710, settlement 23,620, previous settlement 23,630; +115 (+0.49%) close-over-close, +80 (+0.34%) on the previous settlement; volume 175,287.
  • AL2609 close 23,695 (+110, +0.47%), settlement 23,620, volume 60,450, open interest 116,527 (−11,891). AL2611 23,710; AL2612 23,680; AL2701 23,660; AL2702 23,670. Whole-product volume 295,207, open interest 608,693 (−10,065).
  • ⚑ Moving averages, unchanged by construction: MA5 23,794.00, MA10 23,964.50, MA20 23,792.75, MA30 23,590.83, MA40 23,400.00, MA60 23,597.58. The close of 23,710 is 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20, and 119.17 above MA30, 310.00 above MA40 and 112.42 ABOVE MA60.
  • ⚑ Twenty-session percentile 47.2; sixty-session percentile 54.6; retracement of the August 3-to-August 12 advance 89.1%, with the close 70 above the August 3 launch point.
  • ⚑ NEW CROSS-CHECK: brokerage morning notes published on August 21 named a 23,400–23,700 reference band for the main contract and 23,200–23,500 as support. The close of 23,710 finished TEN POINTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THAT BAND (derivation).

⚑ Alumina and cast alloy: restated

  • AO2610 (main, open interest 284,910, −26,473): open 2,669, high 2,707, low 2,661, close 2,698, settlement 2,685; +35 (+1.31%) close-over-close; volume 241,712. MA5 2,681.40, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,678.70, MA30 2,685.93, MA40 2,699.95, MA60 2,753.25 — above four, below MA40 by 1.95 and MA60 by 55.25.
  • ⚑ One level relationship worth recording: AO2610’s close of 2,698 sits 20 yuan BELOW SMM’s July national weighted-average FULL COST of 2,718 yuan/mt. The board is trading beneath full cost (derivation).
  • AD2610 (main, open interest 18,052, −251): open 22,900, high 23,105, low 22,820, close 23,060, settlement 22,955; +115 (+0.50%); volume 6,611. MA5 23,052.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,265.50, MA30 23,170.67, MA40 23,066.75, MA60 23,097.17 — above MA5 by 8.00, missing MA40 by 6.75.

⚑ LME: restated

  • Westmetall official: August 21 cash settlement $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%), three-month $3,244.00 (+$61.00, +1.92%); contango −$17.00; stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged for a fourth consecutive session (five identical prints).
  • LME averages: MA5 $3,218.30, MA10 $3,262.65, MA20 $3,245.62, MA40 $3,194.51, MA60 $3,293.41. Cash is above MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49, and below MA10 by $35.65, MA20 by $18.62 and MA60 by $66.41. SHFE-to-LME ratio 7.347.
  • ⊘ A secondary source reports LME cancelled warrants falling from 16,250 mt to 14,750 mt (−9.23%) with live warrants at 244,650 mt. 244,650 + 14,750 = 259,400 mt, which does NOT equal the 246,925 mt total this brief carries — the source’s own components do not reconcile, so the figures are listed only and no cancelled-warrant ratio is published from them.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics restates its August 21 aluminium print as $3,248.65 (+1.92%), month +1.82%, year +23.87%, against the $3,248.75 and +23.88% carried in the prior edition — a rounding restatement of the same series, which tracks the LME FORWARD, not the cash.

Interpretation

  • A Sunday edition cannot add a price, and saying so first matters more than anything else in it. Readers who want the price action should read the prior edition. What this one can do is test whether Friday’s turn survives contact with data compiled by people who were not looking at Friday’s chart.
  • It does, in three places — inventory, the regional skew, and the relative strength of the secondary complex. Each is set out in its own section below.
  • One technical detail worth keeping: the close of 23,710 finished ten points through the top of the band the market’s own morning notes had published. That is not a signal, but it does say Friday’s close landed outside the range the market expected of itself at the open.

⚑ NEW: a five-market spot price table for August 17–21, independent of SMM

  • ⚑ Cnal’s caliber, August 17 → August 21:
    • CHANGJIANG: 24,080 → 23,890 → 23,670 → 23,590 → 23,670 (Friday +80; Monday-to-Friday −410, −1.70%)
    • SHANGHAI SPOT: 24,050 → 23,890 → 23,660 → 23,590 → 23,680 (Friday +90; −370, −1.54%)
    • NANHAI: 24,400 → 24,290 → 24,060 → 23,980 → 24,130 (Friday +150; −270, −1.11%)
    • HUATONG 99.7%: 24,120 → 23,950 → 23,720 → 23,650 → 23,730 (Friday +80; −390, −1.62%)
  • ⚑ ON AUGUST 21: Nanhai +150 > AL2610 +115 > Shanghai spot +90 > Changjiang +80 = Huatong +80. South China led every caliber and was the ONLY spot caliber to beat the board; both East China calibers lagged it (derivation).
  • ⚑ THE NANHAI-MINUS-SHANGHAI SPREAD: 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450. Friday printed the widest value of the week (derivation).
  • ⚑ Monday-to-Friday, Nanhai’s −270 was the SMALLEST decline of the four calibers and Changjiang’s −410 the largest (derivation). The regional skew ran through the whole week, not just Friday.
  • ⊘ The source’s own ‘week −1.26%’ figure for Changjiang uses a different weekly window from the Monday-to-Friday one computed here; it is listed and NOT reconciled.

⚑ SMM spot and basis: A00 still not retrievable, but a cross-caliber inference is available (labeled as interpretation)

  • ⚑ SMM regional transaction premia against AL2609 on August 21: South China +160, East China 0 (parity), Central China −60 (carried).
  • ⊘ SMM’s absolute A00 quotation for August 21 remains NOT retrievable and is still carried at August 20’s 23,600 yuan/mt (range 23,580–23,620).
  • ⚑ CROSS-CALIBER INFERENCE (this is interpretation, NOT an SMM quotation): on August 20 the cnal ‘Shanghai spot’ caliber read 23,590 against SMM’s 23,600 — a 10-yuan offset — and that caliber rose 90 to 23,680 on August 21, implying an SMM A00 near 23,690. This brief does not publish that number as an SMM figure.
  • ⚑ AND THE TIMING CAVEAT MATTERS THIS WEEK: SMM strikes A00 at 10:15, while AL2610 closed at 15:00 sitting 245 above its low. Any ‘spot at a discount to the board’ computed from a 10:15 print is therefore an artifact of the intraday reversal, not physical weakness (this is interpretation).

⚑ NEW: SMM’s scrap and secondary weekly review (August 20, Thursday-to-Thursday)

  • ⚑ SMM ADC12 23,900 yuan/mt, −300 on the prior Thursday (implied prior level 24,200).
  • ⚑ SMM A00 23,600 yuan/mt, −520 on the prior Thursday’s 24,120.
  • ⚑ THEREFORE: the ADC12 premium over A00 widened from 80 yuan to 300 yuan in a single week, +220 (derivation). Secondary outperformed primary.
  • Spreads: A00 minus mixed extrusion scrap 2,360 yuan/mt; A00 minus shredded scrap 1,150 yuan/mt; shredded aluminium 19,900–20,700 yuan/mt. Overseas ADC12 quotes $3,050–3,190/mt.
  • Secondary aluminium operating rate stable at 49.1%. Cast aluminium alloy ingot inventory 28,100 mt, +2,500 mt m/m (this confirms the figure the prior edition carried).
  • ⚑ July aluminium scrap imports approximately 119,600 mt against June’s 133,000 mt, −10.1% m/m (derivation), attributed to the inverted China-overseas price spread and shipment delays.
  • ⚑ POLICY: the reverse-invoicing policy’s impact is DEEPENING, with compliant invoiced scrap scarcity rising continuously and constraining both operating rates and procurement at scrap-utilising enterprises.
  • ⊘ The same SMM review describes ‘continued social inventory accumulation’ while SMM’s own ingot social series reads 875,000 mt and falling. The phrase most plausibly refers to the alloy and billet complex rather than to ingot, but the two texts are listed and NOT reconciled.

Alumina: carried, plus one new piece of income-statement evidence

  • ⊘ The SMM alumina index for August 21 was not retrievable; the carried level is 2,681.62 yuan/mt (August 20), with regional spot at Shandong 2,650–2,720, Henan 2,690–2,750, Shanxi 2,680–2,740, Guangxi 2,580–2,640 and Guizhou 2,720–2,790; ex-China $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (carried).
  • Carried: national weekly operating rate 74.33%, weekly production 1.688 million mt, total China alumina stocks 7.245 million mt; July output 7.835 million mt (+5.2% y/y); July national weighted-average full cost 2,718 yuan/mt.
  • ⊘ SMM’s own analysis is titled ‘Alumina Weakness Hard to Change: Cost Support Battles Surplus, 2,600 Level Under Test’ — the same 2,600 level named in the commentary carried in the prior edition.
  • ⊘ Alcoa’s cut of 200,000–300,000 t to its 2026 alumina production guidance, to 9.5–9.6 million t, attributed to Cyclone Narelle and contamination at the Pinjarra refinery, is carried as secondary-source context; its announcement date is not established here and it is NOT treated as new.

Interpretation

  • One house saying South China is tight is an assessment; two unrelated sources saying it in different units is a fact. SMM’s premia and cnal’s absolute price table are compiled independently and point the same way on the same day.
  • ADC12’s relative strength is a cost story, not a demand story. Scrap refused to follow: shredded held 19,900–20,700, reverse invoicing keeps compliant material scarce, and July imports fell another 10.1% month-on-month. The secondary operating rate is still stuck at 49.1% and alloy inventory is still building.
  • But cost support that will not break is exactly what a floor is made of. That is the whole of this edition’s conclusion on the secondary complex, and it should not be extended further.

3 · Inventory

⚑ NEW: a third inventory caliber arrives, and it is accelerating

  • ⚑ The SHFE weekly warehouse stock report for August 17–21 puts aluminium at 403,797 mt, −18,300 mt week-on-week.
  • ⚑ The prior week’s draw was −13,642 mt. This week’s is 4,658 mt FASTER, and the implied prior-week level was 422,097 mt (derivation).
  • ⊘ SEPARATELY: SHFE registered aluminium warrants stood at 290,536 mt on August 19, −2,393 mt on the session. Warrants and weekly warehouse stocks are DIFFERENT CALIBERS (the warrant series counts only metal against live warrants); both are listed and NOT reconciled.
  • ⚑ Carried: SMM’s domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory is 875,000 mt on August 20, −11,000 on Monday and −23,000 on the prior Thursday. Series: 1,006 (July 23) → 979 → 953 → 958 (August 3) → 933 → 917 → 898 → 886 → 875.
  • ⚑ Carried: billet 143,000 mt (+500); weekly warehouse withdrawals 123,200 mt (−1,000 w/w); LME stocks 246,925 mt, unchanged a fourth day.
  • ⊘ The three ingot-related inventory calibers (SMM social, SHFE weekly report, SHFE warrants) differ in both window and scope. This brief does NOT add them and does NOT reconcile them.

Interpretation

  • Across the three calibers this brief makes one narrow claim, and it is enough: every inventory series it can see is flat or falling, and NOT ONE IS BUILDING.
  • ⚑ The exchange draw ACCELERATED (−13,642 → −18,300), and that is the new bullish evidence in this edition. But it is also the other face of the character question: a fall in exchange stocks can come from consumption or from metal moving out after warrant cancellation, and this brief cannot separate the two. It therefore does not upgrade its read on demand on the strength of it (this is interpretation).
  • ⚑ Against that, weekly withdrawals are still down 1,000 mt week-on-week. Inventory falling while outflows do not rise gives the same conclusion as the prior edition: the destock is arrival-led, which supports price without signalling demand.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ Restated: no market has traded since Friday’s close

  • The Fed: Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor prices September 16 at 61.0% hold / 39.0% hike; October 28 at 47.0% hold / 44.1% one hike / 9.0% two hikes; December 9 at approximately 71.1% odds of at least one hike (all carried).
  • Dollar index 98.839 — a third consecutive close below 99; month −2.26%, year +1.15% (carried).
  • Brent $93.87, a second consecutive weekly gain above 5% (carried).
  • ⚑ THE CLOCK HAS MOVED EVEN THOUGH THE DATA HAS NOT: Jackson Hole runs August 27–29, with Chair Warsh’s first address as Chair on August 28 — four trading sessions after Monday’s reopen (derivation).
  • China policy, carried: the August LPR held at 3.00% and 3.50% for a fifteenth consecutive month.

⚑ NEW: weekend geopolitics, all dated August 21–22

  • ⚑ Strait of Hormuz transits stand at approximately 20% OF THE PRE-WAR AVERAGE.
  • ⚑ Iranian state media states that Iran will permit IRAQI OIL TANKERS to transit the strait.
  • ⚑ On August 22 Trump posted an image of the strait captioned ‘New US Territory’; a close ally of Iran’s supreme leader responded that Trump’s rhetoric ‘stems from desperation’ and that Iran ‘will not submit.’
  • ⚑ THE US TREASURY’S ESCALATED SANCTIONS PACKAGE IS TO BE DETAILED ON MONDAY, AUGUST 24 — the same trading day this edition’s watchlist covers.
  • The 60-day deadline lapsed on August 17 with no talks under way or scheduled; Trump has separately threatened to strike Oman, the mediator.
  • US retail gasoline prices are up nearly one dollar year-on-year on the depressed transit count.

⚑ NEW: trade policy — BRICS issues a joint statement on CBAM

  • ⚑ The 12th BRICS Environment Ministers’ Meeting, held in New Delhi under India’s 2026 chairship, adopted a joint ministerial statement condemning the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as unilateral, punitive, discriminatory and protectionist, arguing that it violates the common-but-differentiated-responsibilities principle established under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.
  • CBAM has applied since January 1, 2026 to iron and steel, ALUMINIUM, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity, with importers buying certificates priced off the EU ETS net of any carbon price already paid in the country of origin.
  • ⚑ Operationally nothing changes, and the ~47.5% increase in aluminium default values carried in prior editions is unaffected. What is new is the first coordinated sovereign opposition (this is interpretation).

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • The macro column is frozen and should be treated as such. Hike odds, the dollar and crude have not moved a single digit since Friday and will not until Monday.
  • ⚑ What changed is the clock, not the data. Jackson Hole is inside a four-session horizon and Warsh speaks on August 28. Three sessions of hawkish repricing without a dollar response is either a genuine decoupling or a positioning artifact, and that question is answered inside the next week rather than the next month.
  • ⚑ Monday’s risk is unusually concentrated. The US sanctions detail, the SHFE reopen and the Monday inventory print all land on the same day, and four hours of Friday night trading remain unobserved by this brief. That is the single most concentrated risk window of the week.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ NEW: the supply arithmetic splits — a wide year-on-year hole, a refilling month-on-month margin

  • ⚑ China’s July primary aluminium output 3.9 million mt, +3.8% y/y.
  • ⚑ Ex-China July output −6.7% y/y, driven mainly by lower operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters.
  • ⚑ But overseas DAILY AVERAGE output rose 1.6% m/m, on production resumptions in the Middle East and Iceland and capacity ramp-ups in Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Brazil, Norway, Spain and Australia.
  • ⚑ The two are NOT in conflict: the year-on-year hole is wide and the month-on-month margin is refilling. That is the correct reading of the IAI’s global July print of 6.16 million mt, −1.7% y/y (derivation).
  • ⊘ The +3.8% y/y China figure is a DIFFERENT CALIBER from the ‘+1.6%’ carried in prior editions, which referred to the OVERSEAS daily-average month-on-month change. The two are listed and NOT reconciled.
  • Carried: IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt (−44% y/y); EGA H1 production 602,000 t (−47% y/y); month-end domestic capacity approximately 46.29 million mt; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y.

⚑ NEW: the alumina surplus shows up in an income statement

  • ⚑ Nanshan Aluminium International, H1 2026: revenue $415.032 million against $596.814 million a year earlier, −30.5%; net income excluding extraordinary items $62.682 million against $248.246 million, −74.8%.
  • ⚑ Over the same period alumina SALES VOLUME rose 15% while the average selling price fell 39.5%. The company had guided to $58–68 million and landed near the middle of its own band.
  • ⚑ VOLUMES UP 15%, PROFIT DOWN 74.8% — the entire move is price. This is the alumina surplus expressed in a profit-and-loss statement rather than in a price index (derivation).

⚑ NEW: the export channel has already turned month-on-month

  • ⚑ China’s July unwrought aluminium and semis exports 643,000 mt, +18.6% y/y but −9.6% m/m; January–July cumulative 4.04 million mt, +16.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ The monthly run-rate has already rolled over while the cumulative still reads strongly positive — precisely the shape SMM described when it warned that export demand would weaken gradually (derivation). Anyone quoting only the +16.7% is quoting the past.
  • Carried: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y with NEV exports +147.8%; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%; new-home prices −3.2% y/y; aluminium processing operating rate 60.0% (+0.1pp).

Interpretation

  • The error to avoid on the supply side this week is quoting only the year-on-year figure. Ex-China −6.7% y/y is the Gulf hole; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m is that hole being refilled. Both have to be presented together.
  • The net direction of the alumina column has not changed and the evidence for it got harder. A refiner sold 15% more material and earned a quarter of last year’s profit, while China’s July output ran +5.2% y/y, the national operating rate has not come down from 74.33%, and the board trades 20 yuan below full cost. Cost support and surplus are still fighting, and this week’s new evidence lands on the surplus side.
  • Exports are the one unambiguous strong-to-weak data point in this edition. A −9.6% month-on-month print is more forceful than any forecast.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ August 21: two independent calibers point at South China at the same time

  • ⚑ SMM regional transaction premia against AL2609: South China +160, East China 0 (parity), Central China −60. All three improved on the same session from August 20’s +75/+115, −20/0 and −70/−90, a third consecutive day (carried).
  • ⚑ Cnal’s absolute-price caliber, same session: Nanhai +150 > AL2610 +115 > Shanghai spot +90 > Changjiang +80 = Huatong +80 (new, derivation).
  • ⚑ The Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread reached 450, the widest of the five sessions from August 17 to 21; the sequence ran 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 (new, derivation).
  • ⚑ Monday-to-Friday: Nanhai −270 (−1.11%) was the smallest decline of the four calibers, Changjiang −410 (−1.70%) the largest (new, derivation).
  • ⊘ Sentiment indices for August 21 were not retrievable; carried from August 20: East China shipment 3.2, procurement 3.16; Central China shipment 3.1, procurement 2.9.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ This is the most valuable item in the edition. The prior brief’s ‘the physical is firmer than the board’ rested entirely on one house’s premium assessments. It is now independently corroborated by a caliber built from absolute prices and unrelated to SMM. Two sources, different units, same day, same direction.
  • The limiting fact has to be stated in the same breath. South China’s +160 is already the widest of the run and the 450 spread is the widest of the week. An extreme is not by itself a reason to expect continuation; whether it holds on Monday is the test.
  • East China’s lag needs the right explanation. Shanghai spot’s +90 trailed AL2610’s +115, which looks like physical weakness — but SMM prices at 10:15 while the board closed at 15:00 sitting 245 above its low. That gap is a timing artifact (this is interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ NEW: SHFE weekly warehouse stocks 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w, an acceleration of 4,658 mt on the prior week’s −13,642 mt.
  • ⚑ NEW: all three inventory calibers (SMM social 875,000 mt, SHFE weekly 403,797 mt, LME 246,925 mt) are flat or lower and not one is building.
  • ⚑ NEW: Nanhai rose 150 on August 21, the only spot caliber to beat the board’s +115.
  • ⚑ NEW: the Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread reached 450, the widest of the week, and Nanhai’s −270 was the smallest Monday-to-Friday decline of four calibers.
  • ⚑ NEW: two unrelated sources (SMM premia, cnal absolute prices) point the same way on the same day, upgrading South China tightness from assessment to fact.
  • ⚑ NEW: the ADC12 premium over A00 widened from 80 to 300 yuan; scrap refused to follow, with A00-to-shredded at 1,150 and shredded holding 19,900–20,700.
  • ⚑ NEW: July scrap imports 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m; the reverse-invoicing squeeze keeps compliant invoiced material scarce.
  • ⚑ NEW: Hormuz transits still at approximately 20% of the pre-war average; Iran’s concession admits oil tankers only and does not restore bulk alumina shipping.
  • ⚑ NEW: the US sanctions package is detailed on August 24 — the geopolitical risk premium has not been removed.
  • ⚑ NEW: AL2610’s close of 23,710 finished ten points above the top of the 23,400–23,700 band published that morning.
  • ⚑ Carried: MA60 (23,597.58) held by 112.42, keeping the prior break downgraded to false; twenty-session percentile 47.2, sixty-session 54.6.
  • ⚑ Carried: retracement 89.1% with the close 70 above the August 3 launch point; the August 21 low of 23,465 has been tested and held.
  • ⚑ Carried: all three regional premia improved for a third consecutive session (South +160, East parity, Central −60).
  • ⚑ Carried: LME cash $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%) reclaimed MA5 and MA40; stocks at 246,925 mt are an absolute low across five identical prints.
  • ⚑ Carried: IAI Gulf July output −44% y/y to 293,000 mt; global July output −1.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ Carried: the dollar held below 99 for a third session (98.839) and failed to rally through 8.4 percentage points of cumulative hawkish repricing.
  • ⚑ Carried: Brent $93.87, a second consecutive weekly gain above 5% — positive on both the cost side and the risk side.
  • ⚑ Carried: AO2610 reclaimed four averages in one session (+35, +1.31%) and at 2,698 trades 20 yuan below the July full cost of 2,718, giving the cost side a floor to work from.
  • ⚑ Carried: domestic compliance checks on the illegal operation of capacity slated for elimination are under way.
  • ⚑ Carried: AD2610 reclaimed MA5 (+115, +0.50%), with its twenty-session percentile up from 0.7 to 17.0.
  • Carried: July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% and casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y continue to suppress ingot formation.
  • Carried: Japan’s three major ports at 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010.
  • Carried: passive curtailments in the south-west persist; EGA H1 production −47% y/y.
  • Carried: aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%, +0.1pp w/w.
  • Carried: January–July semis exports +16.7% y/y; July unwrought aluminium alloy exports +135.1% y/y.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ NEW: Nanshan Aluminium International’s H1 alumina volumes rose 15% while net income excluding items fell 74.8% to $62.682 million on a 39.5% lower selling price — the surplus has reached the income statement.
  • ⚑ NEW: China’s July primary output 3.9 million mt, +3.8% y/y — domestic supply is still growing.
  • ⚑ NEW: overseas daily average output +1.6% m/m on Middle East and Iceland restarts and ramps across Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Brazil, Norway, Spain and Australia — the Gulf hole is refilling at the margin.
  • ⚑ NEW: July unwrought and semis exports −9.6% m/m; the monthly run-rate has already turned and the cumulative +16.7% is a lagging figure.
  • ⚑ NEW: the secondary aluminium operating rate is still stuck at 49.1%, and ADC12’s absolute level still fell 300 to 23,900.
  • ⚑ NEW: BRICS opposition changes nothing operationally — CBAM has covered aluminium since January 1, 2026 and the ~47.5% default-value increase stands.
  • ⚑ NEW: A00 fell 520 yuan on the week (24,120 → 23,600), which is absolute weakness on the physical side.
  • ⚑ Carried: the close of 23,710 is still 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20.
  • ⚑ Carried: MA5, MA20 and the broken August 14 low at 23,795 form one dense resistance band that has not been touched since it broke.
  • ⚑ Carried: the week still closed −175 (−0.73%), a second consecutive weekly loss and a larger one than the prior week’s; LME −$21.00 (−0.65%).
  • ⚑ Carried: weekly warehouse withdrawals 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w — the destock is arrival-led, not consumption-led.
  • ⚑ Carried: billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500) moves opposite to ingot; cast alloy social inventory 28,100 mt is building for a second week at a widening pace.
  • ⚑ Carried: September hike odds 39.0%, October’s hold below 50% at 47.0%, December implying 71.1% for at least one hike.
  • ⚑ Carried: China’s July alumina output 7.835 million mt (+5.2% y/y); the national operating rate has not come down from 74.33%; total stocks 7.245 million mt.
  • ⚑ Carried: South-East Asian ADC12 keeps weakening — Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090 (−0.48% w/w), Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070 (−0.16%) — with African ingots at $2,850/mt undercutting the region.
  • ⚑ Carried: LME stocks unchanged a fourth session, leaving the 35-day draw stalled; the contango widened from −$1.00 to −$17.00.
  • ⚑ Carried: Canada’s H1 aluminium exports to the US −25.03%; SMM explicitly warns export demand will weaken gradually.
  • Carried: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%; new-home prices −3.2% y/y.
  • ⊘ Four hours of Friday night trading remain unobserved; Monday’s open will contain information this brief has not seen.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

No session has traded since Friday’s close, so this edition adds no price and every moving average is unchanged by construction — its value is whether Friday’s turn can be corroborated by independent data, and it is, in three places: first, a THIRD inventory caliber arrived and it is accelerating, with the SHFE weekly stock report for August 17–21 at 403,797 mt, −18,300 mt week-on-week against −13,642 mt the prior week, which alongside SMM’s social series at 875,000 mt and LME stocks at 246,925 mt means every inventory caliber this brief can see is flat or lower and NOT ONE IS BUILDING (three different calibers, listed and not reconciled); second, cnal’s independently compiled five-market absolute price table has Nanhai +150 on August 21 against Shanghai spot +90, Changjiang +80 and Huatong +80 while AL2610 rose 115 — South China was the ONLY spot caliber to beat the board, the Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread widened to the week’s widest 450, and Nanhai’s −270 was the smallest Monday-to-Friday decline of the four, which upgrades the prior edition’s ‘physical firmer than the board’ from a single house’s assessment to a cross-source corroboration; third, SMM’s weekly review shows ADC12 down 300 to 23,900 while A00 fell 520 to 23,600, widening the ADC12 premium over A00 from 80 to 300 yuan because scrap refused to follow, with the reverse-invoicing squeeze deepening and July scrap imports down 10.1% month-on-month — cost support, not demand recovery; but the opposing evidence is equally specific, with Nanshan International’s H1 showing alumina volumes UP 15% and net income DOWN 74.8% on a 39.5% lower price, China’s July output at 3.9 million mt (+3.8% y/y), overseas daily average output UP 1.6% m/m as the Gulf hole refills at the margin, July exports DOWN 9.6% m/m as the monthly run-rate turns, and the price still below MA5, MA10 and MA20 with four hours of Friday night unobserved; so the conclusion runs the same direction as the prior edition on harder evidence — the range floor at 23,465 has been tested and is now supported by three inventory calibers and two spot calibers, the ceiling at 23,792.75/23,794.00/23,795 has not been touched since it broke, and nothing in the weekend’s information moves either edge — while Monday, August 24 carries the US sanctions detail, the SHFE reopen and the weekly inventory print in a single session, making it the most concentrated risk window of the week.

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s (August 24) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Fill in Friday night, then test MA60 (23,597.58) and the dense band at 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795. This edition could not carry the August 21 night session for a second time, which means Monday’s open has already digested four hours of trading this brief did not see. The first task is to recover that session’s open, high, low and close: a close beneath 23,597.58 downgrades Friday’s bullish outside session to an intraday phenomenon, while a close above 23,795 clears MA5, MA20 and the broken August 14 low at once and moves the range ceiling to MA10 at 23,964.50. Downside sequence: 23,590.83 (MA30) → 23,525 (the August 20 low) → 23,465 (the August 21 low) → 23,400.00 (MA40) → 23,200 (SMM’s band floor).
  • ⚑ The US Treasury’s sanctions detail (Monday) and the Hormuz transit count. Transits stand at roughly 20% of the pre-war average and Iran’s concession admits IRAQI OIL TANKERS only — oil-specific, and no help to the bulk alumina shipping that feeds Gulf refineries and smelters. Watch two things: whether the package touches aluminium- or alumina-related entities and shipping, and whether the transit count falls further after publication. Tighter Gulf raw-material access extends the IAI’s year-on-year collapse into the August data; any sign of bulk cargoes being released would be the first directional loosening of the global-deficit narrative.
  • ⚑ Whether South China’s +160 premium holds, and whether the Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread holds 450. This is the level two independent calibers agreed on, and it is also the extreme of the run. A fall back below +100 with the spread returning under 400 would make Friday a pre-weekend hold-out. If East China moves from parity to an outright premium, ‘the physical is firmer than the board’ upgrades from a three-day sequence to a structural fact. Watch also whether Central China’s −60 keeps narrowing.
  • ⚑ Monday’s social inventory print, read together with withdrawals. August 20 was 875,000 mt; the August 24 print decides whether the draw reaches a sixth consecutive reading. The combination is what matters: if inventory falls again while outflows keep declining (123,200 mt last week, −1,000 w/w), the supply-led character of this destock is reconfirmed and its price support is weaker than it looks; if outflows recover, demand is finally participating. Whether billet inventory (143,000 mt, +500) turns from build to draw is the same question from the other side.
  • ⚑ Whether the SHFE weekly draw keeps accelerating, and which way the warrant series moves. This week’s −18,300 mt against the prior week’s −13,642 mt is the new bullish evidence, but a fall in exchange stocks can come from consumption or from metal leaving after warrant cancellation and this brief cannot separate the two. Watch whether the next weekly report extends the acceleration and whether the warrant series (290,536 mt on August 19, −2,393) falls alongside it — only both moving down together rules out pure warrant reshuffling.
  • ⚑ Whether LME cash holds MA5 ($3,218.30) and MA40 ($3,194.51), and the direction of the first stock change after five identical prints. If cash advances to MA20 ($3,245.62) and SMM’s band ceiling ($3,250), the LME completes a range shift ahead of Shanghai. Watch also whether the contango widens further from −$17.00 and whether the SHFE-LME ratio (7.347) keeps compressing — continued compression means the bid is still offshore.
  • ⚑ The Jackson Hole countdown (August 27–29, Warsh August 28) and the dollar’s last confirmation window. September hike odds are 39.0%, October’s hold is 47.0% and December implies 71.1% for at least one hike, while the dollar has closed below 99 three times. Monday to Wednesday are the last three sessions in which this decoupling can be maintained: odds pushing toward 45% with no dollar rally makes the currency-versus-rates split a usable macro fact, while a dollar back above 99 means the macro bear case must be re-entered. On alumina, watch in parallel whether the national operating rate (74.33%) finally comes down after a July output print of +5.2% y/y and Nanshan’s income-statement evidence.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新交易时段、按构造不变的数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” or “carried” are unchanged by construction because no session has traded since the prior edition.