Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

China's July anode exports show where ex-China supply is refilling. Yarwun cuts 1.2Mtpa of alumina from October.中国 7 月预焙阳极出口揭示海外补产方向;Yarwun 将自 10 月起削减 120 万吨/年氧化铝产能。

Monday, August 24, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Monday August 24 (Asia), BEFORE the SHFE day session opens. ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED SINCE FRIDAY AUGUST 21 AT 15:00, so every futures price, settlement, open interest and moving average is IDENTICAL to the prior two editions' by construction and is restated, not re-derived. ⊘ THE AUGUST 21 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to today's trading day and will not appear in an exchange file until after today's session closes; it is carried as NOT RETRIEVABLE for a THIRD consecutive edition and is NOT estimated — today's open has therefore already digested four hours this brief has not seen. WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION IS: China's July prebaked anode export series (SMM caliber, published August 23); a dated October start for Rio Tinto's Yarwun curtailment; the confirmed clock time of the US Treasury sanctions press conference and its exchange-hours arithmetic; a hard conflict between Hormuz transit calibers; a third independent regional price caliber in Chalco's producer quotation; China's August 1–16 NEV retail print; and two macro caliber restatements on the dollar and Brent. The LME did not trade August 22–23; Westmetall's August 21 file is the current one.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE LAST EDITION WRITTEN BLIND — SHFE REOPENS TODAY Four hours of Friday night trading are STILL not retrievable, a third consecutive edition. Today's open has already priced information this brief has not seen
⚑ NEW: JULY PREBAKED ANODE EXPORTS 211,700 mt, +21.86% y/y SMM caliber, published Aug 23. Jan–Jul 1,518,300 mt, +23.47% y/y. A physically constrained proxy — no potline runs without anodes
⚑ AND IT NAMES WHERE THE REFILL IS: INDONESIA 45% Indonesia 95,400 mt, Norway 26,900 mt (13%), Malaysia 22,700 mt (11%) — 69% of the month in three countries. Southeast Asia and Europe, NOT the Gulf
⚑ THIS CONFIRMS 'OVERSEAS DAILY AVERAGE +1.6% m/m' INDEPENDENTLY The prior editions asserted the Gulf hole was refilling at the margin from an IAI output series. A carbon-input export series, compiled separately, now says the same thing
⚑ BUT ANODE EXPORTS FELL 24.40% MONTH ON MONTH Implied June ~280,026 mt (derivation). July sits 5,200 mt below the Jan–Jul monthly average of 216,900 mt (derivation)
⚑ TWO INDEPENDENT EXPORT SERIES TURNED IN THE SAME MONTH Anodes −24.40% m/m, unwrought-and-semis −9.6% m/m — while the cumulatives read +23.47% and +16.7%. The run-rate has turned on both
⚑ Anode export price $1,031.80, +12.34% m/m, +24.94% y/y Price UP while volume fell — cost push in petroleum coke and pitch, not demand collapse. Implied export value +52.2% y/y (derivation)
⚑ NEW: YARWUN CUTS ~1.2 mtpa (−40%) FROM OCTOBER 2026 Five to six weeks from today. Tailings capacity is projected full by 2031; the cut buys to 2035 and affects ~180 roles
⚑ AND YARWUN IS EAST AUSTRALIAN — THE SAME FOB BENCHMARK This brief quotes ex-China alumina at $363–364 FOB East Australia. The scheduled subtraction lands directly on the quoted basis, not on an unrelated region
⚑ 1.2 mtpa alumina ≈ 622,000 mt/yr of aluminium equivalent At the conventional 1.93 t alumina per t aluminium; ~100,000 mt/month of alumina, ~51,800 mt/month of metal equivalent (derivation, stated ratio)
⚑ NEW: BESSENT'S PRESSER IS 2 p.m. ET = 02:00 BEIJING AUG 25 = 19:00 London. ONE HOUR AFTER the SHFE night session closes at 01:00, and AT the LME close. Neither exchange trades the detail on publication day (derivation)
⚑ SO TONIGHT IS POSITIONING, NOT REACTION The first tradable venue is US hours; China's first opportunity is Tuesday's day session. That is a calendar fact, not a view
⊘ THE HORMUZ CALIBERS HAVE BROKEN APART Carried: ~20% of pre-war average. Tanker trackers: ZERO transits latest complete UTC day; ONE ship Aug 16 vs ~73/day norm; 7 vs 14 earlier. Listed, NOT reconciled
⚑ BUT EVERY TANKER-SPECIFIC CALIBER IS FAR BELOW THE 20% FIGURE 20% of 73 = ~14.6 ships/day; the tanker-only sources report 0 to 1 (derivation). The narrow conclusion: Gulf bulk access is at least as impaired as carried, not less
Chinese-flagged tankers transited the Iranian side on Aug 22–23 Alongside Iran's stated concession admitting IRAQI OIL TANKERS only. Oil-specific — it still does not restore bulk alumina shipping (interpretation)
⚑ NEW: a THIRD regional price caliber lands on the same number Chalco's Aug 21 quotation: South China 23,840 − East China 23,680 = 160, equal to SMM's +160-versus-parity gap. ⊘ Different kinds of quote — corroboration only, not reconciled
⚑ NEW: NEV retail 399,000 units Aug 1–16, −15% y/y, +1% m/m ⊘ Secondary source (Aug 23), not verified against the CPCA original. NEV share 63.6% against July's 65.1% — a step DOWN in share
⚑ AL2610 23,710 RESTATED — MA60 (23,597.58) held by 112.42 Below MA5 (23,794.00) by 84.00, MA10 (23,964.50) by 254.50, MA20 (23,792.75) by 82.75. Three of six averages reclaimed; unchanged by construction
The dense band 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795 sits directly overhead MA20, MA5 and the broken Aug 14 low form ONE cluster 82.75–85 above the close. It has not been touched since it broke
LME cash $3,227.00, contango −$17.00, stocks frozen a 5th print 246,925 mt, unchanged Aug 17–21. Cash above MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49; below MA10, MA20 and MA60. SHFE-LME ratio 7.347
⊘ cnal's LME 3M caliber reads $3,242.50 (+57) vs Westmetall $3,244.00 A $1.50 difference on the same session from two publishers. Westmetall remains this brief's primary caliber; the pair is listed, not reconciled
Three inventory calibers, none building — restated SMM social 875,000 mt (Aug 20), SHFE weekly 403,797 mt (−18,300 w/w, accelerating from −13,642), LME 246,925 mt. Today's SMM print is the next test
South China +160, Nanhai-minus-Shanghai 450 — restated extremes Both are the highest of the run. An extreme is not a reason for continuation; whether they hold at today's 10:15 assessment is the judgement (interpretation)
⊘ Macro caliber restatements: dollar 98.8168, Brent $94.39 TradingEconomics Aug 21 against the 98.839 and $93.87 carried. Same sessions, different publishers and timestamps. Both listed; neither replaces the other
Fed pricing restated: Sept hike 39.0%, Dec ≥1 hike 71.2% Investing.com monitor, Aug 22 00:35 EDT. Oct: hold 47.0% / +25bp 44.1% / +50bp 9.0%. Nothing has traded since Friday
⊘ THREE DIFFERENT SEPTEMBER HIKE ODDS ARE IN CIRCULATION 39.0% (this brief's caliber), 36.6% and 30.6% from secondary reports. Listed, NOT reconciled; the brief's number does not change and no magnitude inference is drawn
⚑ Jackson Hole is FOUR sessions away — Warsh speaks August 28 August 27–29; Chair Warsh, in office since May 22, 2026, delivers his first keynote as Chair on Friday morning. Today is the first of four sessions before it
⚑ Alumina board 2,698 still trades 20 yuan BELOW July full cost 2,718 Cost support and surplus fighting on one chart — and from October a 1.2 mtpa subtraction arrives on the cost side of that fight
⊘ Operating-capacity calibers conflict: ~45.19–45.40 mt vs 46.29 mt Secondary sources give operating capacity near the 45.43 mt compliant ceiling at 97.7% utilisation; this brief has carried ~46.29 mt as end-month capacity. Different definitions, listed only
⊘ A secondary description of Friday night is NOT usable One source describes the Aug 21 night session as opening lower and oscillating 23,400–23,600 — a range with no OHLC and an unconfirmed date attribution. Listed, NOT used
⊘ A '23,520, −0.47%' night print circulating is the AUGUST 20 session It sits directly beneath the Aug 21 open of 23,500 and is consistent in level with that session, NOT with Friday night (derivation). It is not taken as the Friday print

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 8月24日(周一)上午,沪铝日盘开盘之前。
  • ⚑ 自 8月21日(周五)15:00 收盘以来仍无任何交易时段。因此本期所载全部期货价格、结算价、持仓量,以及三个品种十八条沪铝均线与五条伦铝均线,均按构造与前两期完全相同,系「转载」而非「重算」。
  • ⊘ 8月21日夜盘(周五 21:00 至周六 01:00)归属今日(8月24日)交易日,须待今日日盘结束后方会出现在交易所日行情文件中。连续第三期按「未取得」载入,不作估计。这意味着:今日开盘价中已经包含了本简报未曾观测的四个小时的信息。
  • ⚑ 本期新增内容:中国 7 月预焙阳极出口序列(SMM 口径,8月23日发布);力拓 Yarwun 减产的确切启动月份;美国财政部制裁发布会的确切时点及其交易所时段算式;霍尔木兹通行量口径之间的硬冲突;中铝报价作为第三套区域价格口径;中国 8月1–16日新能源乘用车零售数据;以及美元与布伦特的两条宏观口径重述。
  • ⊘ 伦敦金属交易所 8月22–23日未开市,Westmetall 8月21日文件仍为当前文件。

⚑ 沪铝:数据转载,均线按构造不变

  • AL2610(主力,持仓 267,438 手,−2,599):开 23,500,高 23,760,低 23,465,收 23,710,结算 23,620,前结算 23,630;收盘对收盘 +115(+0.49%),较前结算价 +80(+0.34%);成交 175,287 手。
  • AL2609 收 23,695(+110,+0.47%),结算 23,620,成交 60,450 手,持仓 116,527 手(−11,891)。AL2611 收 23,710;AL2612 收 23,680;AL2701 收 23,660;AL2702 收 23,670。品种合计成交 295,207 手,持仓 608,693 手(−10,065)。
  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(按构造不变):MA5 23,794.00、MA10 23,964.50、MA20 23,792.75、MA30 23,590.83、MA40 23,400.00、MA60 23,597.58。收盘 23,710 低于 MA5 84.00 元、低于 MA10 254.50 元、低于 MA20 82.75 元;高于 MA30 119.17 元、高于 MA40 310.00 元、高于 MA60 112.42 元。六条均线收复三条。
  • ⚑ 20 日分位 47.2%,60 日分位 54.6%;对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例 89.1%,收盘价高于 8月3日起点 70 元。
  • ⚑ 值得在今日开盘前重申的一条结构事实:MA20(23,792.75)、MA5(23,794.00)与已跌破的 8月14日低点 23,795,三者构成一条宽度不足 2.25 元的密集带,位于收盘上方 82.75–85 元。该带自跌破以来从未被触及(此为推算)。

⊘ 关于周五夜盘:两条二手线索,均不采用

  • ⊘ 一家来源描述 8月21日夜盘「开盘走低后在 23,400–23,600 区间震荡」。该描述仅给出区间、无开高低收,且本简报无法确认其日期归属,故仅列示,不采用、不估计。
  • ⊘ 另有「23,520 元、−0.47%」的夜盘印记在流传。该数值恰位于 8月21日日盘开盘价 23,500 元之上,与 8月20日夜盘(归属 8月21日交易日)在水平上相衔接,而非周五夜盘(此为推算)。本简报不将其作为周五夜盘印记。
  • ⚑ 结论:今日开盘前,本简报对周五夜盘的立场仍为「未取得」。这是本期最重要的已知盲区。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:转载

  • AO2610(主力,持仓 284,910 手,−26,473):开 2,669,高 2,707,低 2,661,收 2,698,结算 2,685;收盘对收盘 +35(+1.31%);成交 241,712 手。均线 MA5 2,681.40、MA10 2,691.50、MA20 2,678.70、MA30 2,685.93、MA40 2,699.95、MA60 2,753.25——收盘高于四条,仅低于 MA40 1.95、低于 MA60 55.25。
  • ⚑ 转载并强调:AO2610 收盘 2,698 元,低于 SMM 所载 7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元/吨 20 元。盘面仍在完全成本之下交易(此为推算)。
  • AD2610(主力,持仓 18,052 手,−251):开 22,900,高 23,105,低 22,820,收 23,060,结算 22,955;收盘对收盘 +115(+0.50%);成交 6,611 手。均线 MA5 23,052.00、MA10 23,257.00、MA20 23,265.50、MA30 23,170.67、MA40 23,066.75、MA60 23,097.17——收盘高于 MA5 8.00 元,距 MA40 差 6.75 元。

⚑ 伦铝:转载,并新增一条口径差异

  • Westmetall 官方口径:8月21日现货结算 3,227.00 美元(+45.00,+1.41%),三个月 3,244.00 美元(+61.00,+1.92%);contango −17.00 美元;库存 246,925 吨,8月17–21日五个交易日印记完全相同,零变动。
  • 伦铝均线:MA5 3,218.30、MA10 3,262.65、MA20 3,245.62、MA40 3,194.51、MA60 3,293.41 美元。现货高于 MA5 8.70、高于 MA40 32.49,低于 MA10 35.65、低于 MA20 18.62、低于 MA60 66.41。沪伦比值 7.347。
  • ⊘ 新增口径差异:世铝网所载 8月21日伦铝三个月为 3,242.50 美元(+57),而 Westmetall 为 3,244.00 美元(+61)。同一交易时段、两家发布机构,相差 1.50 美元。本简报继续以 Westmetall 为主口径,两者仅列示、不调和,亦不在两套口径之间计算变动。
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics 同日读数 3,248.75 美元(+1.92%,月度 +1.82%,年度 +23.88%),该序列跟踪伦铝远月而非现货,继续单列。

解读

  • 今日开盘前,技术面的判据只有两条,而且都很窄。 其一,MA60(23,597.58)是否守住——守住则周五的看涨外包线保持有效,失守则该形态被降格为盘中现象。其二,上方 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795 的密集带是否被触及——该带自跌破以来从未被测试。
  • ⚑ 但必须诚实地指出:这两条判据都会在开盘瞬间被四个小时的未观测交易「预先回答」一部分。 本简报所载的收盘价 23,710,已经不是今日交易者面对的起点。
  • 氧化铝一栏本期新增的不是一个价格,而是一个日期。 详见基本面栏。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货价格:转载 8月21日,并新增第三套区域口径

  • ⚑ SMM 分地区成交升贴水(对 AL2609),8月21日:华南升水 160 元、华东平水 0 元、华中贴水 60 元。三地较 8月20日的 +75/+115、−20/0、−70/−90 同日全部改善,为连续第三个交易日(转载)。
  • ⚑ 世铝网五市场口径,8月21日收盘:长江 23,670 元(+80)、上海现货 23,680 元(+90)、南海有色 24,130 元(+150)、华通 99.7% 23,730 元(+80)。南海减上海价差 450 元,为 8月17–21日五个交易日中最阔;序列 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450(转载)。
  • ⚑ 新增第三套口径——中铝报价,8月21日:华东 23,680 元、华南 23,840 元、西南 23,720 元、华中 23,620 元。中铝口径下华南减华东为 160 元,与 SMM 升贴水口径下「华南 +160、华东平水」的差值在数值上一致(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 但必须说明:中铝报价为厂家挂牌价,SMM 为成交升贴水评估,两者性质完全不同。数值一致属于巧合还是结构,本简报无法判定,故仅作方向性佐证,不作调和,亦不据此计算任何基差。
  • ⊘ SMM 8月21日 A00 绝对报价连续第三期未取得,继续载入 8月20日的 23,600 元/吨(区间 23,580–23,620)。此前所作「约 23,690 元」的跨口径推断继续仅作为解读列示,绝不以 SMM 口径发布。
  • ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨(SMM,8月20日周度口径),较上周四 −300 元;A00 同口径 −520 元至 23,600 元,ADC12 对 A00 的升水由 80 元扩大至 300 元(转载)。
  • 海外 ADC12 报价 3,050–3,190 美元/吨;马来西亚 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元(周环比 −0.48%),泰国 FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元(−0.16%);非洲铝锭 2,850 美元/吨(转载)。
  • 氧化铝:中国现货约 2,681.62 元/吨(SMM 综合,转载);中国以外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本栏本期唯一的新增内容,是「第三套彼此独立的区域口径落在了同一个数字上」。 中铝挂牌的华南减华东价差 160 元,与 SMM 升贴水口径下的华南减华东 160 元数值相同。方向上,三套独立编制的口径现已一致指向华南偏紧——这已经超出「单一机构评估」的范畴(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 而必须同时说明极值风险。 华南升水 160 元与南海减上海 450 元,均为本轮最高值。极值本身从不构成延续的理由。 今日 10:15 的评估才是判据。
  • 氧化铝的两条价格本期没有变化,但下文将说明:它们所处的供需框架,在五至六周后会出现一个有确切日期的变化。

三 · 库存

⚑ 三套口径转载,今日 SMM 印记为下一个检验点

  • SMM 国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存 8月20日为 87.5 万吨,较周一 −1.1 万吨、较上周四 −2.3 万吨;序列 100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5(转载)。
  • 上期所 8月17日–8月21日库存周报:铝 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨;上一周为 −13,642 吨,本周去库速度加快 4,658 吨;隐含上周水平 422,097 吨(转载,原推算)。
  • 上期所铝期货仓单 8月19日为 290,536 吨,较上一交易日 −2,393 吨(转载)。
  • 伦铝库存 246,925 吨,8月17–21日五个交易日印记完全相同(转载)。
  • 铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨);铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨);铸造铝合金锭库存 28,100 吨(环比 +2,500 吨)(全部转载)。
  • ⊘ 三套铝锭相关库存口径(SMM 社会库存、上期所库存周报、上期所仓单)窗口与统计范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

  • 本栏的结论与上期完全相同,且本期没有任何新数据可以改变它:所有可见的库存序列都在持平或下降,没有一套在累积。
  • ⚑ 但今日的 SMM 印记是一个真正的检验点,而不是一次例行更新。 8月20日为 87.5 万吨;今日印记决定去库是否达到连续第六次读数。
  • ⚑ 而应当与出库量合看,这一点比库存水平本身更重要。 周度出库 12.32 万吨、环比 −0.1 万吨的组合尚未改善。库存在降而出库不增,意味着去库由到货减少驱动:支撑价格,但不指示需求(此为解读)。若今日库存再降而出库继续下滑,该性质得到再次确认;若出库回升,需求才算开始参与。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 新增:制裁发布会的确切时点,及其交易所时段算式

  • ⚑ 美国财政部长贝森特的制裁发布会定于美东时间 8月24日下午 2:00。
  • ⚑ 时区换算:美东夏令时下午 2:00 = 18:00 UTC = 北京时间 8月25日 02:00 = 伦敦夏令时 19:00(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 沪铝夜盘交易时段为 21:00 至次日 01:00(北京时间)。发布会开始时点在夜盘收盘之后一小时(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 伦敦金属交易所 LME Select 电子盘于伦敦时间 19:00 收市。发布会开始时点即为伦铝收市时点(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 因此:两个交易所都无法在细则公布当日对其定价。第一个可定价的时段为美国盘时段,而中国市场的第一次机会是 8月25日(周二)日盘(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 这条推论改写了对今晚夜盘的读法:21:00 至 01:00 之间的任何走势,都是对一场尚未发生的公告的「事前定位」,而不是对已发生消息的反应(此为解读)。
  • 贝森特此前表述:这将是「世界历史上最大规模的协调性经济孤立」,并称将实施「前所未见」的措施;其亦警告盟友须在「与美国站在一起或与美国对立」之间作出选择(转载并补充)。

⊘ 新增冲突:霍尔木兹通行量的四套口径无法调和

  • ⊘ 本简报此前载:通行量约为战前均值的 20%。
  • ⊘ 油轮专项追踪机构载:最近一个完整 UTC 日油轮通行量为零。
  • ⊘ 另一来源载:8月16日仅 1 艘船舶通行,而常态约为每日 73 艘。
  • ⊘ 更早一期载:通行量由 14 艘降至 7 艘。
  • ⚑ 算式:73 艘的 20% 约为每日 14.6 艘;而油轮专项口径报告的是 0 至 1 艘(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 这四套口径覆盖的船舶范围(全船型 vs 仅油轮)与日期均不相同,本简报全部列示、一律不调和。可以得出的、唯一足够窄的结论是:海湾通行受阻的程度至少不低于本简报此前所载,而非更轻(此为解读)。
  • 8月22–23日,船舶追踪数据显示有中国籍油轮及另一艘中国籍船舶进入并通过海峡伊朗一侧;伊朗此前所述放行范围仅限伊拉克油轮。
  • ⚑ 该项对铝的传导路径不是原油,而是散货:海湾精炼厂与电解铝厂所依赖的氧化铝及原料运输,未因油轮放行而恢复(此为解读)。

⚑ 转载:利率、美元、原油——自周五收盘以来无任何交易

  • 美联储:Investing.com 联储利率监测器(8月22日 00:35 美东)对 9月16日 FOMC 定价为维持 61.0% / 加息 39.0%;10月28日为维持 47.0% / 加息一次 44.1% / 加息两次 9.0%;12月9日为维持 28.9% / 一次 45.2% / 两次 22.5% / 三次 3.5%,隐含至少加息一次概率 71.2%(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 新增冲突:二手报道对 9月加息概率给出 36.6% 与 30.6% 两个不同数值,与本简报所载 39.0% 并存。三个数字仅列示,不调和;本简报主口径不变,且不据此作任何幅度判断。
  • ⊘ 美元指数口径重述:TradingEconomics 载 8月21日为 98.8168(−0.08%),月度 −2.28%,年度 +1.13%;本简报此前载 98.839。同一交易日、不同发布机构与时点,两者并列,互不替代。
  • ⊘ 布伦特口径重述:TradingEconomics 载 8月21日为 94.39 美元(+0.65%),月度 +0.34%,年度 +39.36%;本简报此前载 93.87 美元。同上,并列不调和。
  • ⚑ 时钟:杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 8月27–29日,沃什主席(2026年5月22日就任)首次以主席身份发表主旨演讲为 8月28日(周五)上午。今日为该演讲之前四个交易日中的第一个(此为推算)。
  • 中国政策转载:8月 LPR 维持 3.00% 与 3.50%,为连续第十五个月不变。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 本期宏观栏的价值不在数值,而在日程。 利率概率、美元、原油自周五以来一个数字都没有变;变的是两条时点信息,而且都很硬:制裁细则落在两个交易所之外,沃什演讲落在第四个交易日。
  • ⚑ 连续三个交易日的鹰派重定价未能推动美元上行,这一「脱钩」还剩三个交易日的确认窗口。 今日至周三,是它被证实为真实脱钩、还是被证伪为仓位现象的最后时段。
  • ⊘ 而应当承认一项方法上的限制:当同一指标存在三个流通中的数值(9月加息 39.0% / 36.6% / 30.6%)时,任何以「概率变动」为基础的推论,其分辨率都低于变动本身。 本简报因此不对该项作任何幅度判断,只观察美元本身。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 本期核心新增:7 月预焙阳极出口——一条受物理约束的海外复产口径

  • ⚑ 中国 7 月预焙阳极出口 211,700 吨,同比 +21.86%,环比 −24.40%(SMM 口径,8月23日发布)。
  • ⚑ 1–7 月累计出口 1,518,300 吨,同比 +23.47%。
  • ⚑ 7 月平均出口价格约 1,031.80 美元/吨,同比 +24.94%,环比 +12.34%。
  • ⚑ 主要目的地:印度尼西亚约 95,400 吨(占 45%,当月第一)、挪威约 26,900 吨(13%)、马来西亚 22,700 吨(11%);三国合计约占当月 69%。SMM 另载安哥拉出口量较上年极低基数近乎翻倍。
  • ⚑ 推算:由环比 −24.40% 反推,6 月出口约 280,026 吨;1–7 月月均 216,900 吨,7 月低于该月均 5,200 吨;1–6 月累计约 1,306,600 吨,月均约 217,767 吨(全部为推算)。
  • ⚑ 推算:量价合计,7 月出口货值同比约 +52.2%(1.2186 × 1.2494 = 1.5225)(此为推算)。

解读:为什么这条序列比产量数据更硬

  • ⚑ 预焙阳极不是情绪指标。电解槽每生产 1 吨铝约消耗 0.40–0.45 吨碳阳极,且没有阳极就无法运行。 因此阳极出口序列是对「实际在运行的电解产能」的一次受物理约束的读数,且其编制与本简报此前三期所依赖的国际铝业协会产量序列完全无关。
  • ⚑ 它证实了海外复产是真实的,并且做到了产量序列做不到的一件事:指明地点。东南亚与挪威,而非海湾。
  • ⚑ 容量推算(此为推算,且为上限):按 0.40–0.45 吨/吨的行业常规系数,7 月单月 211,700 吨阳极出口对应每月约 470,400–529,250 吨原铝产能,年化约 565–635 万吨;其中印尼一国的 95,400 吨对应每月约 212,000–238,500 吨,年化约 254–286 万吨。⊘ 之所以为上限:处于爬坡首次装填阶段的电解槽,其阳极消耗高于稳态水平,故实际对应的运行产能应低于上述区间。
  • ⚑ 但同一序列自带一个不小的反向证据:7 月环比 −24.40%,而未锻轧铝及铝材出口在同一个月环比 −9.6%。两条彼此独立、测量产业链不同环节的出口序列,在同一个月同时环比转向,而两者的累计口径仍分别读作 +23.47% 与 +16.7%(此为推算)。仅引用累计者,引用的是上半年。
  • ⚑ 价格方向与数量相反,这一点必须单独说明:出口均价环比 +12.34%。量跌价涨是石油焦与沥青的成本推动,而非需求崩塌;而上升的碳阳极成本,是阳极所到之处每一家电解铝厂的成本上升(此为解读)。

⚑ 第二项新增:氧化铝过剩获得了一个有确切日期的减项

  • ⚑ 力拓 Yarwun 氧化铝精炼厂(澳大利亚昆士兰州格拉德斯通)将自 2026 年 10 月起减产约 40%,减量约 120 万吨/年。
  • ⚑ 减产原因为尾矿库容量预计于 2031 年填满;通过减产,该厂可获得约四年时间推进技术方案,并将运营延续至 2035 年;涉及约 180 个岗位,力拓称正在格拉德斯通各运营单位内推进再安置。力拓认定新建第二座废料设施所需投资在当前条件下不具可行性。
  • ⚑ 公告本身并非新闻;新增的是「生效月份已进入本简报覆盖窗口」——距今日五至六周(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 地点比吨位更重要:Yarwun 位于东澳,其定价基准正是本简报所引的 363–364 美元 FOB 东澳。这不是来自某个不相关地区的减量,而是直接落在所引基准之上(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 推算:按 1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝的常规系数,120 万吨/年约折合 62.2 万吨/年原铝当量,即每月约 10 万吨氧化铝、约 5.18 万吨铝当量(此为推算,系数已注明)。

⚑ 转载:供应算式的两端

  • 中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%;中国以外同比 −6.7%;但海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;国际铝业协会全球 7 月产量 616 万吨,同比 −1.7%(全部转载)。
  • 国际铝业协会海湾地区 7 月产量 29.3 万吨,同比 −44%;EGA 上半年产量 60.2 万吨,同比 −47%;7 月铝水比例 78.3%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%(全部转载)。
  • 中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;全国开工率 74.33% 未下降;总库存 724.5 万吨(转载)。
  • 南山铝业国际 2026 上半年:氧化铝销量同比 +15%,扣非净利 6,268.2 万美元,同比 −74.8%,平均售价同比 −39.5%(转载)。
  • ⊘ 运行产能口径冲突:二手来源载国内电解铝运行产能约 4,519–4,540 万吨、产能利用率 97.7%、逼近 4,543 万吨合规产能天花板;本简报此前载月末国内产能约 4,629 万吨。两者定义不同(运行产能 vs 建成产能),仅列示,不调和。

⚑ 第三项新增:需求端——8月上半月新能源乘用车零售

  • ⚑ 8月1–16日新能源乘用车零售约 39.9 万辆,同比 −15%,较 7 月同期 +1%;新能源市场份额 63.6%。
  • ⊘ 该组数据来自二手行业信息平台(8月23日),本简报未能对照乘联会原始发布核验,故整组标注为二手来源。
  • ⚑ 若按此口径,63.6% 的份额低于 7 月全月的 65.1%——是份额的一次回落,而非继续创高(此为推算)。
  • 转载:7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%,新能源车出口 +147.8%;7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%,七个子行业全部收缩;1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%;新房价格同比 −3.2%;铝加工开工率 60.0%;再生铝开工率 49.1%;7 月废铝进口约 119,600 吨,环比 −10.1%;7 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 64.3 万吨,同比 +18.6%、环比 −9.6%,1–7 月累计 404 万吨、同比 +16.7%。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期供应端的净方向是「两侧证据都变硬了」,而不是某一侧变强。 阳极序列把海外复产从推断升级为物理事实,这是偏空的;Yarwun 把氧化铝过剩从无期限的状态变成一个有减项、有日期的状态,这是偏多的;而两者都落在同一个 10 月前后的时间窗内。
  • ⚑ 需求端本期没有好消息,也没有新的坏消息——只有旧警告的延续。 8月上半月新能源零售同比 −15%、份额自 65.1% 回落至 63.6%,与 7 月乘用车零售 −20.9%、铝加工 PMI 42.2% 方向一致。⊘ 但该组为二手来源,本简报不据此调整任何幅度判断。
  • ⚑ 一条不宜被累计口径掩盖的事实:阳极 −24.40%、铝材 −9.6%,两条出口序列在同一个月环比转向。 这是本月第二次出现「累计强、月度弱」的结构,而且这次是在两条独立序列上同时出现(此为推算)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 8月21日:三套口径同向,极值待验

  • ⚑ SMM 分地区成交升贴水(对 AL2609):华南 +160 元、华东 0 元(平水)、华中 −60 元,连续第三个交易日三地同日改善(转载)。
  • ⚑ 世铝网绝对价格口径同日涨幅:南海 +150 > AL2610 +115 > 上海现货 +90 > 长江 +80 = 华通 +80(转载)。
  • ⚑ 南海减上海价差 450 元,为 8月17–21日最阔;周一至周五南海 −270 元(−1.11%)为四套口径中跌幅最小(转载)。
  • ⚑ 新增第三套口径:中铝报价 8月21日,华南 23,840 元 − 华东 23,680 元 = 160 元。三套彼此独立编制的口径现已同向指向华南偏紧(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 8月21日出货与采购情绪指数仍未取得;延续载入 8月20日数据:华东出货 3.2、采购 3.16;华中出货 3.1、采购 2.9。

解读

  • ⚑ 华南偏紧现已由三套来源支持:SMM 的成交升贴水评估、世铝网的绝对价格表、中铝的厂家挂牌。三者性质不同、编制独立,方向一致。 这已经超出「单一机构评估」的范畴。
  • ⚑ 但方向一致不等于水平可持续。华南升水 160 元与南海减上海 450 元均为本轮极值。 今日 10:15 的评估是唯一的判据:守住则「现货强于盘面」由三日序列升级为结构;回落至 100 元以下、价差回到 400 元以内,则周五更接近节前惜售。
  • ⚑ 而华东本期仍处于观察位置。 华东由平水转为实质升水,是本简报所等待的、最能确认需求侧参与的单一信号(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

  • ⚑ 新增:力拓 Yarwun 自 2026 年 10 月起减产约 120 万吨/年(−40%),距今五至六周;且该厂位于东澳,直接落在本简报所引 363–364 美元 FOB 东澳基准之上。
  • ⚑ 新增:120 万吨/年约折合 62.2 万吨/年原铝当量、每月约 10 万吨氧化铝(此为推算)——氧化铝过剩首次获得有确切日期的减项。
  • ⚑ 新增:预焙阳极出口均价 1,031.80 美元/吨,环比 +12.34%、同比 +24.94%——碳阳极成本上升,是阳极所到之处每一家电解铝厂的成本上升。
  • ⚑ 新增:量跌价涨的组合指向石油焦与沥青的成本推动,而非需求崩塌。
  • ⚑ 新增:霍尔木兹油轮专项口径(0 至 1 艘/日)远低于本简报所载的「战前均值 20%」——海湾散货通行受阻程度至少不低于此前所载。
  • ⚑ 新增:中铝报价成为第三套指向华南偏紧的独立口径(华南 − 华东 = 160 元)。
  • ⚑ 转载:上期所周度库存 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨,较上一周的 −13,642 吨加速 4,658 吨。
  • ⚑ 转载:三套库存口径(SMM 87.5 万吨、上期所 40.38 万吨、伦铝 246,925 吨)全部持平或下降,无一累库。
  • ⚑ 转载:伦铝库存 246,925 吨连续五个交易日零变动,处于本轮绝对低位。
  • ⚑ 转载:AL2610 守住 MA60(23,597.58)112.42 元,周五为看涨外包线;8月21日低点 23,465 已测试并守住。
  • ⚑ 转载:收盘 23,710 元高出 8月21日早间机构参考区间上沿 10 元。
  • ⚑ 转载:华南升水 160 元、南海减上海 450 元,均为本轮最高。
  • ⚑ 转载:ADC12 对 A00 升水由 80 元扩大至 300 元,再生强于原生;废铝拒不跟随(A00 对破碎生铝 1,150 元)。
  • ⚑ 转载:7 月废铝进口 119,600 吨,环比 −10.1%,反向开票挤压加深,合规发票料持续稀缺。
  • ⚑ 转载:国际铝业协会海湾 7 月产量 29.3 万吨,同比 −44%;EGA 上半年 −47%;中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%;全球同比 −1.7%。
  • ⚑ 转载:AO2610 收 2,698 元,低于 7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元 20 元,成本侧仍有可依托的底部。
  • ⚑ 转载:伦铝现货 3,227.00 美元(+45.00,+1.41%)收复 MA5 与 MA40;contango 仅 −17.00 美元,不构成建库的持有激励。
  • ⚑ 转载:美元连续三个交易日收在 99 下方(98.839 / 98.8168 两套口径),且未能在累计鹰派重定价下走强。
  • ⚑ 转载:布伦特 93.87 / 94.39 美元(两套口径),连续第二周涨幅超 5%,成本与风险两侧同时偏多。
  • ⚑ 转载:美国制裁细则今日公布,地缘风险溢价未被移除。
  • ⚑ 转载:国内电解铝运行产能贴近 4,543 万吨合规天花板,利用率 97.7%(⊘ 二手口径),供给刚性明确。
  • 转载:7 月铝水比例 78.3%、铸锭量同比 −15.1%,持续压制铝锭形成量。
  • 转载:日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
  • 转载:铝加工开工率 60.0%,环比 +0.1 个百分点;7 月未锻轧铝合金出口同比 +135.1%。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 新增:7 月预焙阳极出口 211,700 吨,同比 +21.86%——海外复产由推断升级为受物理约束的事实。
  • ⚑ 新增:印度尼西亚一国占 45%(95,400 吨),挪威 13%、马来西亚 11%,三国合计 69%——复产地点已被明确指认为东南亚与欧洲。
  • ⚑ 新增:按 0.40–0.45 吨/吨系数,单月阳极出口对应年化约 565–635 万吨中国以外原铝产能,印尼一国约 254–286 万吨(此为推算,且为上限)。
  • ⚑ 新增:1–7 月阳极累计出口 1,518,300 吨,同比 +23.47%——海外产能释放具有持续性,而非单月现象。
  • ⚑ 新增:8月1–16日新能源乘用车零售同比 −15%,份额自 7 月的 65.1% 回落至 63.6%(⊘ 二手来源)。
  • ⚑ 新增:制裁细则落在两个交易所收市之后,今晚夜盘的任何走势都是事前定位而非消息反应——事件风险未被消化,而是被推迟(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 转载:中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%。
  • ⚑ 转载:7 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口环比 −9.6%,月度运行速率已经转向。
  • ⚑ 转载:两条独立出口序列(阳极 −24.40%、铝材 −9.6%)在同一个月同时环比转向。
  • ⚑ 转载:南山铝业国际上半年销量 +15% 而扣非净利 −74.8%、均价 −39.5%,氧化铝过剩已进入利润表。
  • ⚑ 转载:中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;开工率 74.33% 未降;总库存 724.5 万吨。
  • ⚑ 转载:收盘 23,710 元仍低于 MA5 84.00 元、低于 MA10 254.50 元、低于 MA20 82.75 元,六条均线仅收复三条。
  • ⚑ 转载:MA20、MA5 与已跌破的 8月14日低点 23,795 构成一条密集阻力带,跌破后从未被触及。
  • ⚑ 转载:上周周线 −175 元(−0.73%),为连续第二根阴线且幅度大于前一周;伦铝周度 −21.00 美元(−0.65%)。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨,环比 −0.1 万吨——去库由到货减少驱动,而非消费驱动。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨)与铝锭反向;铸造铝合金锭库存 28,100 吨连续第二周累积且提速。
  • ⚑ 转载:9 月加息概率 39.0%,10 月维持已低于 50%(47.0%),12 月隐含至少加息一次 71.2%。
  • ⚑ 转载:杰克逊霍尔 8月27–29日、沃什 8月28日演讲,事件风险落在鹰派重定价之上。
  • ⚑ 转载:东南亚 ADC12 持续走弱(马来西亚 3,090 美元、泰国约 3,070 美元),非洲铝锭 2,850 美元/吨形成压制;再生铝开工率停滞于 49.1%。
  • ⚑ 转载:加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%;CBAM 自 2026年1月1日起覆盖铝,约 +47.5% 的缺省值上调仍然有效,金砖国家的反对在操作层面无任何改变。
  • ⊘ 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩)、7 月乘用车零售 −20.9%、1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%、新房价格 −3.2%;且周五夜盘四小时仍未被观测,今日开盘价已包含本简报未见的信息。

八 · 一句话观点

铝价进入今日开盘时,现货、三套库存口径与 MA60(23,597.58)全部处于支撑一侧,而 MA20 / MA5 / 23,795 构成的密集带就压在上方 82.75–85 元处,因此有意义的区间极窄;但本期真正的特征不是价格结构,而是三条新证据都指向「时间」而非「方向」——7 月预焙阳极出口 211,700 吨(印尼占 45%)以受物理约束的口径证实海外复产已经发生,同一序列却环比 −24.40%、与铝材出口 −9.6% 在同月同向转弯;力拓 Yarwun 约 120 万吨/年的减产于 10 月落在本简报所引的同一条东澳 FOB 基准上;而贝森特制裁细则于北京时间 8月25日 02:00 公布,在沪铝夜盘收市之后一小时、恰在伦铝收市时点,两个交易所都无法在当日对其定价——今晚夜盘的任何走势都是事前定位而非消息反应。本简报不作任何投资建议,以上为已确认数据与其解读的分栏陈述。

九 · 今日(8月24日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 第一件事是补齐周五夜盘,然后再看 MA60(23,597.58)与上方 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795 的密集带。 本简报连续第三期无法载入 8月21日夜盘,这意味着今日开盘价中已经包含四个小时本简报未见的交易。开盘后的第一项工作是取得该时段的开、高、低、收:若该时段收于 23,597.58 之下,周五的看涨外包线被降格为盘中现象;若日盘能触及并站上 23,795,则 MA5、MA20 与 8月14日低点这条自跌破以来从未被测试的密集带被一次性清除。在此之前,任何基于周五收盘价的推论都带有一个已知的四小时缺口。
  • ⚑ 今日 SMM 社会库存印记,必须与出库量合看。 8月20日为 87.5 万吨;今日印记决定去库是否达到连续第六次读数。但组合才是判据:若库存再降而周度出库继续低于 12.32 万吨,则「到货驱动型去库」的性质得到再次确认,其价格支撑弱于表面;若出库回升,需求才算开始参与。同时关注铝棒库存(14.3 万吨)是否继续与铝锭反向,以及铸造铝合金锭库存(28,100 吨)是否连续第三周累积。
  • ⚑ 华南升水 160 元与南海减上海 450 元是否守住——今日 10:15 是唯一判据。 这是三套独立口径(SMM 升贴水、世铝网绝对价格、中铝挂牌)同时指向的水平,也是本轮的极值。回落至 100 元以下且价差回到 400 元以内,周五就更接近节前惜售;而华东若由平水转为实质升水,则「现货强于盘面」由三日序列升级为结构性事实。华中 −60 元能否继续收窄同样值得记录。
  • ⚑ 制裁细则的时点结构,而非细则本身。 发布会为北京时间 8月25日 02:00,在沪铝夜盘收市(01:00)之后一小时、恰在伦铝收市(伦敦 19:00)时点,两个交易所都无法在当日定价。因此今晚 21:00–01:00 的任何走势都是事前定位。需要观察两点:一是夜盘是否出现与基本面无关的持仓变动,二是方案是否触及铝、氧化铝相关实体或航运——若触及,第一次可定价的时段是美国盘,中国市场的第一次机会在明日日盘。
  • ⚑ 霍尔木兹通行量的口径能否收敛,以及散货是否恢复。 本简报现载有四套互不调和的数值(约 20%、0 艘、1 艘、7 艘 vs 14 艘)。需要关注的不是哪个数字正确,而是是否出现一套连续、可比、覆盖散货船而非仅油轮的序列。伊朗放行伊拉克油轮属油轮专项,不涉及海湾精炼厂与电解铝厂所依赖的氧化铝原料运输;若散货通行仍无恢复迹象,国际铝业协会所载海湾 −44% 的产量缺口就会向 9 月延续。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:AO2610 与完全成本 2,718 元的关系,以及市场是否开始对 10 月的 Yarwun 减产定价。 盘面收于完全成本之下 20 元,MA40(2,699.95)是仅存的上方均线且仅高 1.95 元。需要关注两点:一是能否收复 MA40 并向 2,718 元靠拢,二是东澳 FOB 报价(363–364 美元)是否出现与 120 万吨/年减产日程相关的变化。⚑ 距 10 月尚有五至六周,此项属于「提前记录、按周跟踪」,今日不应期待其在盘面上出现(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝:现货能否守住 MA5(3,218.30 美元)与 MA40(3,194.51 美元),以及五个相同印记之后的第一次库存变动方向。 若现货推进至 MA20(3,245.62 美元)与 SMM 区间上沿(3,250 美元),伦铝将先于沪铝完成区间上移。同时关注 contango 是否自 −17.00 美元继续走阔,以及沪伦比值(7.347)是否继续压缩——继续压缩意味着买盘仍在外盘。⊘ 并注意世铝网与 Westmetall 的 1.50 美元口径差异,勿在两套口径之间计算变动。
  • ⚑ 杰克逊霍尔倒计时:今日为沃什 8月28日演讲之前四个交易日中的第一个。 9 月加息概率的三个流通数值(39.0% / 36.6% / 30.6%)使任何以幅度为基础的推论失去分辨率,因此今日至周三应观察的是美元本身:连续第四个交易日收在 99 下方且加息定价不回落,即为真实脱钩;美元重回 99 上方,则此前三个交易日属仓位现象。这是该问题在本周内可以得到回答的最后窗口。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This edition is written on the morning of Monday, August 24, BEFORE the SHFE day session opens.
  • ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED SINCE FRIDAY AUGUST 21 AT 15:00. Every futures price, settlement and open-interest figure here, and all eighteen SHFE and five LME moving averages, are IDENTICAL to the prior two editions’ by construction. They are restated, not re-derived.
  • ⊘ The August 21 night session (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to TODAY’s trading day and will not appear in an exchange file until after today’s close. It is carried as NOT RETRIEVABLE for a THIRD consecutive edition and is NOT estimated. That means today’s opening price already contains four hours of information this brief has not seen.
  • ⚑ What is new this edition: China’s July prebaked anode export series (SMM caliber, published August 23); the effective month of Rio Tinto’s Yarwun curtailment; the confirmed clock time of the US Treasury sanctions press conference and its exchange-hours arithmetic; a hard conflict between Hormuz transit calibers; Chalco’s producer quotation as a third independent regional price caliber; China’s August 1–16 NEV retail print; and two macro caliber restatements.
  • ⊘ The LME did not trade on August 22–23; Westmetall’s August 21 file remains the current one.

⚑ SHFE: restated, averages unchanged by construction

  • AL2610 (main, open interest 267,438, −2,599): open 23,500, high 23,760, low 23,465, close 23,710, settlement 23,620, previous settlement 23,630; +115 (+0.49%) close-over-close, +80 (+0.34%) on the previous settlement; volume 175,287.
  • AL2609 close 23,695 (+110, +0.47%), settlement 23,620, volume 60,450, open interest 116,527 (−11,891). AL2611 23,710; AL2612 23,680; AL2701 23,660; AL2702 23,670. Whole-product volume 295,207, open interest 608,693 (−10,065).
  • ⚑ Moving averages, unchanged by construction: MA5 23,794.00, MA10 23,964.50, MA20 23,792.75, MA30 23,590.83, MA40 23,400.00, MA60 23,597.58. The close of 23,710 is 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20, and 119.17 above MA30, 310.00 above MA40 and 112.42 ABOVE MA60. Three of six reclaimed.
  • ⚑ Twenty-session percentile 47.2; sixty-session percentile 54.6; retracement of the August 3-to-August 12 advance 89.1%, with the close 70 above the August 3 launch point.
  • ⚑ Worth restating before today’s open: MA20 (23,792.75), MA5 (23,794.00) and the broken August 14 low of 23,795 form ONE band less than 2.25 yuan wide, sitting 82.75 to 85 above the close, and it has NOT been touched since it broke (derivation).

⊘ On Friday night: two secondary leads, neither used

  • ⊘ One source describes the August 21 night session as opening lower and oscillating in a 23,400–23,600 band. That is a range with no open, high, low or close, and this brief cannot confirm the date attribution. Listed only; NOT used and NOT estimated.
  • ⊘ A separate “23,520, −0.47%” night print is in circulation. Its level sits directly above the August 21 day-session open of 23,500 and is consistent with the AUGUST 20 night session (which belongs to the August 21 trading day), not with Friday night (derivation). It is NOT taken as the Friday print.
  • ⚑ Conclusion: as of this morning, the brief’s position on Friday night remains NOT RETRIEVABLE. That is the single most important known blind spot in this edition.

⚑ Alumina and cast alloy: restated

  • AO2610 (main, open interest 284,910, −26,473): open 2,669, high 2,707, low 2,661, close 2,698, settlement 2,685; +35 (+1.31%); volume 241,712. MA5 2,681.40, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,678.70, MA30 2,685.93, MA40 2,699.95, MA60 2,753.25 — above four, below MA40 by 1.95 and MA60 by 55.25.
  • ⚑ Restated and worth emphasis: AO2610’s close of 2,698 sits 20 yuan BELOW SMM’s July national weighted-average FULL COST of 2,718 yuan/mt. The board is still trading beneath full cost (derivation).
  • AD2610 (main, open interest 18,052, −251): open 22,900, high 23,105, low 22,820, close 23,060, settlement 22,955; +115 (+0.50%); volume 6,611. MA5 23,052.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,265.50, MA30 23,170.67, MA40 23,066.75, MA60 23,097.17 — above MA5 by 8.00, missing MA40 by 6.75.

⚑ LME: restated, plus one new caliber difference

  • Westmetall official: August 21 cash settlement $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%), three-month $3,244.00 (+$61.00, +1.92%); contango −$17.00; stocks 246,925 mt, five identical prints across August 17–21 with zero change.
  • LME averages: MA5 $3,218.30, MA10 $3,262.65, MA20 $3,245.62, MA40 $3,194.51, MA60 $3,293.41. Cash is above MA5 by $8.70 and MA40 by $32.49, and below MA10 by $35.65, MA20 by $18.62 and MA60 by $66.41. SHFE-to-LME ratio 7.347.
  • ⊘ NEW CALIBER DIFFERENCE: cnal reports the August 21 LME three-month at $3,242.50 (+$57), against Westmetall’s $3,244.00 (+$61) — a $1.50 gap on the same session from two publishers. Westmetall remains this brief’s primary caliber; the pair is listed, NOT reconciled, and no change should be computed across the two.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics’ August 21 print of $3,248.75 (+1.92%, month +1.82%, year +23.88%) tracks the LME FORWARD, not the cash, and continues to be listed separately.

Interpretation

  • Before today’s open there are only two technical tests, and both are narrow. First, whether MA60 (23,597.58) holds — holding keeps Friday’s bullish outside session valid, losing it downgrades the pattern to an intraday phenomenon. Second, whether the dense band at 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795 is reached; it has not been tested since it broke.
  • ⚑ But it has to be said plainly: both tests will be partly pre-answered at the opening bell by four hours of trading this brief never observed. The 23,710 close carried here is no longer the starting point today’s traders face.
  • The alumina column gains a date this edition rather than a price. See Fundamentals below.

⚑ Spot: August 21 restated, plus a third regional caliber

  • ⚑ SMM regional transaction premia vs AL2609, August 21: SOUTH CHINA +160, EAST CHINA 0 (parity), CENTRAL CHINA −60. All three improved on the same day against August 20’s +75/+115, −20/0 and −70/−90 — a third consecutive session (restated).
  • ⚑ Cnal five-market caliber, August 21 closes: Changjiang 23,670 (+80), Shanghai spot 23,680 (+90), Nanhai 24,130 (+150), Huatong 99.7% 23,730 (+80). Nanhai-minus-Shanghai 450, the widest of August 17–21 on the sequence 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 (restated).
  • ⚑ NEW THIRD CALIBER — Chalco’s producer quotation for August 21: East China 23,680, South China 23,840, Southwest 23,720, Central China 23,620. South China minus East China on Chalco’s caliber is 160, numerically equal to the “+160 versus parity” gap in SMM’s premium caliber (derivation).
  • ⊘ But this must be said: Chalco’s is a PRODUCER LIST PRICE and SMM’s is a TRANSACTION-PREMIUM ASSESSMENT. Whether the numerical identity is coincidence or structure is beyond what this brief can determine, so it is used as directional corroboration only, NOT reconciled, and no basis is computed from the pair.
  • ⊘ SMM’s A00 for August 21 remains NOT retrievable for a third consecutive edition; carried at August 20’s 23,600 (range 23,580–23,620). The earlier cross-caliber inference of roughly 23,690 continues to be listed as INTERPRETATION and is never published as an SMM quote.
  • ADC12 23,900 yuan/mt (SMM weekly caliber, August 20), −300 week-on-week; A00 on the same caliber −520 to 23,600, widening the ADC12 premium over A00 from 80 to 300 yuan (restated).
  • Overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190/mt; Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090 (−0.48% w/w), Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070 (−0.16%); African ingots $2,850/mt (restated).
  • Alumina: China spot approximately 2,681.62 yuan/mt (SMM composite, restated); ex-China $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (restated).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The only new content in this column is that a THIRD independently compiled regional caliber lands on the same number. Chalco’s South-minus-East gap of 160 equals the gap in SMM’s premium assessment. Directionally, three independent calibers now point to South China tightness — which has moved past “one house’s assessment” (interpretation).
  • ⚑ And the extreme-value risk has to be stated alongside it. South China’s +160 and the 450 Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread are both the highest of the run. An extreme is never a reason for continuation. Today’s 10:15 assessment is the test.
  • The two alumina prices did not move this edition — but the supply framework they sit inside acquires a dated change five to six weeks out, set out below.

3 · Inventory

⚑ Three calibers restated; today’s SMM print is the next test

  • SMM domestic mainstream social inventory of aluminium ingot, August 20: 875,000 mt, −11,000 against Monday and −23,000 against the prior Thursday; sequence 1,006,000 (July 23) → 979,000 → 953,000 → 958,000 (August 3) → 933,000 → 917,000 → 898,000 → 886,000 → 875,000 (restated).
  • SHFE weekly warehouse stocks, August 17–21: aluminium 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w against −13,642 mt the prior week — the draw ACCELERATED by 4,658 mt; implied prior level 422,097 mt (restated, originally derived).
  • SHFE aluminium warrants August 19: 290,536 mt, −2,393 on the session (restated).
  • LME stocks 246,925 mt, five identical prints across August 17–21 (restated).
  • Billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500); weekly ingot warehouse withdrawals 123,200 mt (−1,000 w/w); cast alloy ingot inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500 m/m) (all restated).
  • ⊘ The three ingot-related inventory calibers (SMM social, SHFE weekly stocks, SHFE warrants) use different windows and different statistical scopes. They are NOT summed and NOT reconciled.

Interpretation

  • The conclusion is identical to the prior edition and no new data this edition can change it: every visible inventory series is flat or falling, and not one is building.
  • ⚑ But today’s SMM print is a genuine test rather than a routine update. August 20 was 875,000 mt; today’s print decides whether the draw reaches a sixth consecutive reading.
  • ⚑ And it must be read together with withdrawals, which matters more than the level. Weekly outflows of 123,200 mt, down 1,000 week-on-week, have not improved. Inventory falling while outflows do not rise means the destock is arrival-led: it supports price, but it does not indicate demand (interpretation). If inventory falls again while outflows keep sliding, that character is reconfirmed; if outflows recover, demand is finally participating.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ NEW: the sanctions press conference has a clock time, and it has consequences

  • ⚑ Treasury Secretary Bessent’s sanctions press conference is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on August 24.
  • ⚑ Timezone arithmetic: 14:00 EDT = 18:00 UTC = 02:00 Beijing on August 25 = 19:00 London BST (derivation).
  • ⚑ The SHFE night session runs 21:00 to 01:00 Beijing. The press conference begins ONE HOUR AFTER the night session closes (derivation).
  • ⚑ LME Select closes at 19:00 London. The press conference begins AT the LME close (derivation).
  • ⚑ Therefore: NEITHER EXCHANGE CAN TRADE THE DETAIL ON THE DAY IT IS PUBLISHED. The first venue able to price it is US hours; China’s first opportunity is the August 25 day session (derivation).
  • ⚑ This reframes tonight’s night session: anything that happens between 21:00 and 01:00 is POSITIONING AHEAD OF an announcement, not a reaction to one (interpretation).
  • Bessent has described the campaign as “the greatest campaign of coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world,” has promised measures “never been seen” on Iran, and has warned allies they must decide whether to align with the United States or stand against it (restated and extended).

⊘ NEW CONFLICT: four Hormuz transit calibers that do not reconcile

  • ⊘ This brief has carried: transits at approximately 20% of the pre-war average.
  • ⊘ Tanker-specific trackers report: ZERO tanker transits on the latest complete UTC day.
  • ⊘ A separate source reports: ONE ship transited on August 16, against a norm of roughly 73 per day.
  • ⊘ An earlier edition carried: transits falling to seven from fourteen.
  • ⚑ Arithmetic: 20% of 73 would be roughly 14.6 ships per day; the tanker-only sources are reporting nought to one (derivation).
  • ⚑ These four calibers cover different vessel universes (all vessels versus tankers only) over different dates. ALL ARE LISTED AND NONE IS RECONCILED. The one conclusion narrow enough to draw is that Gulf access is at least as impaired as this brief has been carrying, not less (interpretation).
  • On August 22–23, vessel-tracking data showed a Chinese-flagged oil tanker and another Chinese-flagged vessel entering and transiting the Iranian side of the strait; Iran’s stated concession admits IRAQI OIL TANKERS only.
  • ⚑ The transmission path to aluminium is not crude but BULK: the alumina and raw-material shipping that Gulf refineries and smelters depend on has not been restored by an oil-tanker concession (interpretation).

⚑ Restated: rates, dollar, crude — nothing has traded since Friday

  • Federal Reserve: the Investing.com rate monitor (August 22, 00:35 EDT) prices the September 16 FOMC at hold 61.0% / hike 39.0%; October 28 at hold 47.0% / one hike 44.1% / two hikes 9.0%; December 9 at hold 28.9% / one 45.2% / two 22.5% / three 3.5%, implying 71.2% for at least one hike (derivation).
  • ⊘ NEW CONFLICT: secondary reports carry September hike odds at 36.6% and at 30.6%, alongside this brief’s 39.0%. THREE DIFFERENT NUMBERS FOR THE SAME THING are listed and NOT reconciled; the brief’s primary caliber does not change and no magnitude inference is drawn from it.
  • ⊘ Dollar caliber restatement: TradingEconomics carries August 21 at 98.8168 (−0.08%), month −2.28%, year +1.13%, against the 98.839 this brief has carried. Same session, different publishers and timestamps; both listed, neither replaces the other.
  • ⊘ Brent caliber restatement: TradingEconomics carries August 21 at $94.39 (+0.65%), month +0.34%, year +39.36%, against the $93.87 this brief has carried. Same treatment.
  • ⚑ The clock: Jackson Hole runs August 27–29, with Chair Warsh — in office since May 22, 2026 — delivering his first keynote as Chair on the morning of Friday, August 28. Today is the FIRST of four sessions before it (derivation).
  • China policy restated: August LPRs held at 3.00% and 3.50% for a fifteenth consecutive month.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ The value of this column today is in the calendar, not the numbers. Rate probabilities, the dollar and crude have not moved a digit since Friday. What changed are two timing facts, and both are hard: the sanctions detail lands outside both exchanges, and Warsh speaks on the fourth session from here.
  • ⚑ Three consecutive sessions of hawkish repricing failed to lift the dollar, and that decoupling has three sessions of confirmation window left. Today through Wednesday is the last stretch in which it is either established as real or falsified as a positioning artefact.
  • ⊘ One methodological limit should be admitted: when three different values for the same indicator are in circulation (39.0% / 36.6% / 30.6% for September), any inference built on the CHANGE in that probability has less resolution than the change itself. This brief therefore makes no magnitude judgement on it and watches the dollar instead.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ THE CORE NEW ITEM: July prebaked anode exports — a physically constrained read on the overseas restart

  • ⚑ China’s July prebaked anode exports: 211,700 mt, +21.86% y/y, −24.40% m/m (SMM caliber, published August 23).
  • ⚑ January–July cumulative: 1,518,300 mt, +23.47% y/y.
  • ⚑ July average export price approximately $1,031.80/mt, +24.94% y/y, +12.34% m/m.
  • ⚑ Destinations: Indonesia approximately 95,400 mt (45%, first for the month), Norway approximately 26,900 mt (13%), Malaysia 22,700 mt (11%) — the three together roughly 69% of the month. SMM also notes Angola nearly doubling from a minimal prior-year base.
  • ⚑ Derivations: backing out the −24.40% m/m gives an implied June of about 280,026 mt; the January–July monthly average is 216,900 mt, so July sits 5,200 mt BELOW it; January–June implies 1,306,600 mt at a 217,767 mt monthly average (all derivations).
  • ⚑ Derivation: combining volume and price, implied export VALUE is up roughly 52.2% year on year (1.2186 × 1.2494 = 1.5225).

Interpretation: why this series is harder than a production number

  • ⚑ Prebaked anode is not a sentiment indicator. A potline consumes roughly 0.40 to 0.45 tonnes of carbon anode per tonne of aluminium and cannot run without it. An anode export series is therefore a PHYSICALLY CONSTRAINED read on smelters that are actually operating, and it is compiled entirely independently of the IAI production series the last three editions leaned on.
  • ⚑ It confirms that the overseas restart is real, and it does something the production series could not: IT NAMES THE PLACES. Southeast Asia and Norway — not the Gulf.
  • ⚑ Capacity arithmetic (derivation, and an UPPER BOUND): at the conventional 0.40–0.45 t/t ratio, July’s 211,700 mt of anode exports feeds roughly 470,400 to 529,250 mt per month of primary aluminium capacity, or about 5.65 to 6.35 million tonnes a year; Indonesia’s 95,400 mt alone feeds roughly 212,000 to 238,500 mt per month, or 2.54 to 2.86 million tonnes a year. ⊘ It is an upper bound because a potline in first-fill during ramp-up consumes above steady-state rates, so the true operating capacity implied is LOWER than that range.
  • ⚑ But the same series carries a substantial counterweight: July fell 24.40% month on month, in the SAME MONTH that unwrought aluminium and semis exports fell 9.6% month on month. Two independently compiled export series, measuring different points of the chain, turned down together — while their cumulatives still read +23.47% and +16.7% (derivation). Anyone quoting only the cumulatives is quoting the first half of the year.
  • ⚑ The price moved the other way, and that needs stating separately: the average export price rose 12.34% month on month. Volume down with price up is cost push in petroleum coke and pitch, not a demand collapse — and a rising anode cost is a rising smelter cost everywhere the anodes land (interpretation).

⚑ SECOND NEW ITEM: the alumina surplus acquires a dated subtraction

  • ⚑ Rio Tinto’s Yarwun alumina refinery (Gladstone, Queensland, Australia) will cut output by approximately 40%, around 1.2 million tonnes per annum, FROM OCTOBER 2026.
  • ⚑ The stated reason is tailings storage projected to reach capacity by 2031; the cut buys roughly four additional years to advance technical solutions and keeps the site operating to 2035. About 180 roles are affected, with redeployment planning under way across Rio’s Gladstone operations. Rio concluded that a second waste facility at Yarwun would require investment that is not currently viable.
  • ⚑ The announcement itself is not news; what is new is that the EFFECTIVE MONTH has entered the window this brief covers — five to six weeks from today (derivation).
  • ⚑ And the location matters more than the tonnage: Yarwun prices off the same FOB East Australia basis this brief quotes at $363–364. This is not a subtraction from an unrelated region — it lands directly on the quoted benchmark (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Derivation: at the conventional 1.93 tonnes of alumina per tonne of aluminium, 1.2 mtpa is roughly 622,000 mt/yr of metal equivalent, about 100,000 mt of alumina per month and about 51,800 mt of metal equivalent per month (derivation, ratio stated).

⚑ Restated: both ends of the supply arithmetic

  • China’s July primary output 3.9 million mt, +3.8% y/y; ex-China −6.7% y/y; but overseas DAILY AVERAGE output +1.6% m/m; IAI global July output 6.16 million mt, −1.7% y/y (all restated).
  • IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 production 602,000 mt, −47% y/y; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3%; July casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y (all restated).
  • China’s July alumina output 7.835 million mt, +5.2% y/y; national operating rate 74.33%, not down; total stocks 7.245 million mt (restated).
  • Nanshan Aluminium International H1 2026: alumina volumes +15% y/y, net income excluding items $62.682 million (−74.8% y/y) on a 39.5% lower average selling price (restated).
  • ⊘ OPERATING-CAPACITY CALIBER CONFLICT: secondary sources put domestic operating capacity at roughly 45.19–45.40 million mt at 97.7% utilisation, approaching the 45.43 million mt compliant ceiling; this brief has carried end-month capacity at approximately 46.29 million mt. The definitions differ (operating versus built capacity). Listed, NOT reconciled.

⚑ THIRD NEW ITEM: demand — NEV retail for August 1–16

  • ⚑ Passenger NEV retail sales for August 1–16 approximately 399,000 units, −15% y/y and +1% against the same period of July; NEV market share 63.6%.
  • ⊘ This set comes from a secondary industry information platform (August 23) and this brief has NOT verified it against the CPCA original. The whole set is flagged as secondary.
  • ⚑ On that caliber, 63.6% is BELOW July’s full-month 65.1% — a step down in share rather than a further record (derivation).
  • Restated: July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y with NEV exports +147.8%; July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%; new-home prices −3.2% y/y; aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%; secondary aluminium operating rate 49.1%; July scrap imports approximately 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m; July unwrought and semis exports 643,000 mt, +18.6% y/y and −9.6% m/m, January–July 4.04 million mt at +16.7% y/y.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net direction on supply this edition is that BOTH SIDES got harder evidence, not that one side got stronger. The anode series upgrades the overseas restart from inference to physical fact, which is bearish; Yarwun converts the alumina surplus from an open-ended condition into one with a dated subtraction, which is bullish; and both land in roughly the same October window.
  • ⚑ Demand produced no good news and no new bad news this edition — only a continuation of the old warning. NEV retail at −15% y/y for the first half of August with share slipping from 65.1% to 63.6% is directionally consistent with July’s −20.9% passenger retail and the 42.2% processing PMI. ⊘ But the set is secondary-sourced, and this brief adjusts no magnitude judgement on it.
  • ⚑ One fact the cumulatives should not be allowed to hide: anodes −24.40% and semis −9.6%, two export series turning month-on-month together. This is the second time this month the brief has recorded a strong-cumulative, weak-monthly structure, and this time it appears on two independent series at once (derivation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ August 21: three calibers agree; the extremes await verification

  • ⚑ SMM regional transaction premia vs AL2609: South China +160, East China 0 (parity), Central China −60 — a third consecutive session of all three improving on the same day (restated).
  • ⚑ Cnal absolute-price caliber, same-day gains: Nanhai +150 > AL2610 +115 > Shanghai spot +90 > Changjiang +80 = Huatong +80 (restated).
  • ⚑ Nanhai-minus-Shanghai 450, the widest of August 17–21; Monday-to-Friday, Nanhai’s −270 (−1.11%) was the smallest fall of four calibers (restated).
  • ⚑ NEW THIRD CALIBER: Chalco’s August 21 quotation gives South China 23,840 minus East China 23,680 = 160. Three independently compiled calibers now point the same way on South China tightness (derivation).
  • ⊘ Shipment and purchasing sentiment indices for August 21 remain unavailable; August 20 carried — East China shipment 3.2 / purchasing 3.16, Central China shipment 3.1 / purchasing 2.9.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ South China tightness is now supported by three sources: SMM’s transaction-premium assessment, cnal’s absolute price table, and Chalco’s producer quotation. Different kinds of quote, independently compiled, pointing the same way. That has moved past “one house’s assessment.”
  • ⚑ But agreement on direction is not the same as sustainability of level. South China’s +160 and the 450 Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread are both extremes of the run. Today’s 10:15 assessment is the only test: holding upgrades “the physical is firmer than the board” from a three-day sequence to a structural fact; a fall below +100 with the spread back inside 400 makes Friday look more like pre-weekend hold-out.
  • ⚑ East China remains the position to watch. East China moving from parity to an outright premium is the single signal this brief is waiting on that would most clearly confirm demand-side participation (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ NEW: Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cuts approximately 1.2 mtpa (−40%) from October 2026, five to six weeks out — and the refinery prices off the same $363–364 FOB East Australia basis this brief quotes.
  • ⚑ NEW: 1.2 mtpa is roughly 622,000 mt/yr of aluminium equivalent and about 100,000 mt of alumina a month (derivation) — the alumina surplus receives its first dated subtraction.
  • ⚑ NEW: the average prebaked anode export price rose to $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m and +24.94% y/y — a rising carbon cost for every smelter the anodes reach.
  • ⚑ NEW: volume down with price up points to petroleum coke and pitch cost push rather than demand collapse.
  • ⚑ NEW: tanker-specific Hormuz calibers (nought to one per day) are far below the ~20%-of-pre-war figure this brief carries — Gulf bulk access is at least as impaired as carried, not less.
  • ⚑ NEW: Chalco’s producer quotation becomes a third independent caliber pointing to South China tightness (South minus East = 160).
  • ⚑ Restated: SHFE weekly stocks 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w, an acceleration of 4,658 mt on the prior week’s −13,642 mt.
  • ⚑ Restated: all three inventory calibers (SMM 875,000 mt, SHFE 403,797 mt, LME 246,925 mt) flat or lower, not one building.
  • ⚑ Restated: LME stocks unchanged across five consecutive prints at an absolute cycle low of 246,925 mt.
  • ⚑ Restated: AL2610 held MA60 (23,597.58) by 112.42 on a bullish outside session; the August 21 low of 23,465 has been tested and held.
  • ⚑ Restated: the close of 23,710 finished ten points above the top of the brokers’ own August 21 reference band.
  • ⚑ Restated: South China +160 and Nanhai-minus-Shanghai 450 are both the highest of the run.
  • ⚑ Restated: the ADC12 premium over A00 widened from 80 to 300 yuan; scrap refused to follow (A00-to-shredded 1,150).
  • ⚑ Restated: July scrap imports 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m, with the reverse-invoicing squeeze keeping compliant invoiced material scarce.
  • ⚑ Restated: IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 −47%; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; global −1.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ Restated: AO2610 at 2,698 trades 20 yuan below July full cost of 2,718 — the cost side retains a floor to work from.
  • ⚑ Restated: LME cash $3,227.00 (+$45.00, +1.41%) reclaimed MA5 and MA40; the contango at −$17.00 is no carry incentive to build stock.
  • ⚑ Restated: the dollar closed below 99 for a third session (98.839 / 98.8168 on two calibers) and failed to rally through cumulative hawkish repricing.
  • ⚑ Restated: Brent $93.87 / $94.39 on two calibers, a second consecutive weekly gain above 5% — positive on both the cost and risk sides.
  • ⚑ Restated: the US sanctions detail publishes today; the geopolitical risk premium has not been removed.
  • ⚑ Restated: domestic operating capacity sits against the 45.43 million mt compliant ceiling at 97.7% utilisation (⊘ secondary caliber) — supply rigidity is explicit.
  • Restated: July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% and casting-ingot output −15.1% y/y keep suppressing ingot formation.
  • Restated: Japan’s three major ports at 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010.
  • Restated: aluminium processing operating rate 60.0% (+0.1pp w/w); July unwrought aluminium alloy exports +135.1% y/y.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ NEW: July prebaked anode exports 211,700 mt, +21.86% y/y — the overseas restart moves from inference to physically constrained fact.
  • ⚑ NEW: Indonesia alone took 45% (95,400 mt), Norway 13% and Malaysia 11%, 69% in three countries — the restart is now located, in Southeast Asia and Europe.
  • ⚑ NEW: at 0.40–0.45 t/t, one month of anode exports feeds roughly 5.65–6.35 million tonnes a year of ex-China primary capacity, Indonesia alone 2.54–2.86 million (derivation, and an upper bound).
  • ⚑ NEW: January–July anode exports 1,518,300 mt, +23.47% y/y — overseas capacity release is sustained, not a one-month artefact.
  • ⚑ NEW: NEV retail for August 1–16 −15% y/y with share slipping from July’s 65.1% to 63.6% (⊘ secondary source).
  • ⚑ NEW: the sanctions detail lands after both exchanges close, so tonight’s night session is positioning ahead of an announcement rather than a reaction — the event risk is deferred, not digested (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Restated: China’s July primary output 3.9 million mt, +3.8% y/y; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m.
  • ⚑ Restated: July unwrought and semis exports −9.6% m/m; the monthly run-rate has already turned.
  • ⚑ Restated: two independent export series (anodes −24.40%, semis −9.6%) turned month-on-month in the same month.
  • ⚑ Restated: Nanshan International’s H1 volumes +15% against net income ex-items −74.8% on a −39.5% price — the alumina surplus has reached the income statement.
  • ⚑ Restated: China’s July alumina output 7.835 million mt (+5.2% y/y); the national operating rate has not come down from 74.33%; total stocks 7.245 million mt.
  • ⚑ Restated: the close of 23,710 is still 84.00 below MA5, 254.50 below MA10 and 82.75 below MA20 — three of six averages reclaimed.
  • ⚑ Restated: MA20, MA5 and the broken August 14 low at 23,795 form one dense resistance band untouched since it broke.
  • ⚑ Restated: last week closed −175 (−0.73%), a second consecutive weekly loss and larger than the prior week’s; LME −$21.00 (−0.65%).
  • ⚑ Restated: weekly warehouse withdrawals 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w — the destock is arrival-led, not consumption-led.
  • ⚑ Restated: billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500) moves opposite to ingot; cast alloy ingot inventory 28,100 mt is building for a second week at a widening pace.
  • ⚑ Restated: September hike odds 39.0%, October’s hold below 50% at 47.0%, December implying 71.2% for at least one hike.
  • ⚑ Restated: Jackson Hole August 27–29 with Warsh on August 28 places event risk on top of a hawkish repricing.
  • ⚑ Restated: Southeast Asian ADC12 keeps weakening (Malaysia $3,090, Thailand ~$3,070) with African ingots at $2,850/mt undercutting the region; the secondary operating rate is stuck at 49.1%.
  • ⚑ Restated: Canada’s H1 aluminium exports to the US −25.03%; CBAM has covered aluminium since January 1, 2026 and the ~47.5% default-value increase stands, with BRICS objection changing nothing operationally.
  • ⊘ Restated: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% (all seven sub-sectors contracting), July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9%, January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%, new-home prices −3.2% — and four hours of Friday night trading remain unobserved, so today’s opening price already contains information this brief has not seen.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Aluminium enters today’s open with the physical market, three inventory calibers and MA60 at 23,597.58 all on the supportive side and the dense MA20 / MA5 / 23,795 band sitting just 82.75 to 85 above the close, so the range that matters is very narrow — but the defining feature of this edition is not the price structure, it is that all three pieces of new evidence bear on TIMING rather than direction: July prebaked anode exports of 211,700 mt with Indonesia at 45% confirm through a physically constrained caliber that the overseas restart has already happened, while the same series fell 24.40% month on month alongside a 9.6% fall in semis exports in the same month; Rio Tinto’s roughly 1.2 mtpa Yarwun curtailment begins in October on the very FOB East Australia basis this brief quotes; and Bessent’s sanctions detail publishes at 02:00 Beijing on August 25, one hour after the SHFE night session closes and at the LME close, so neither exchange can price it on the day — which makes anything that happens tonight positioning ahead of an announcement rather than a reaction to one. This brief makes no investment recommendation; the above separates confirmed data from its interpretation throughout.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 24) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ First fill in Friday night, then test MA60 (23,597.58) and the dense band at 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795. This brief could not carry the August 21 night session for a third consecutive edition, which means today’s opening price already contains four hours of trading it has not seen. The first task after the bell is to recover that session’s open, high, low and close: a close beneath 23,597.58 downgrades Friday’s bullish outside session to an intraday phenomenon, while a day session that reaches and holds 23,795 clears MA5, MA20 and the August 14 low — a band untouched since it broke — in one move. Until that gap is filled, every inference built on Friday’s close carries a known four-hour hole.
  • ⚑ Today’s SMM social inventory print, read together with withdrawals. August 20 was 875,000 mt; today’s print decides whether the draw reaches a sixth consecutive reading. But the combination is the test: if inventory falls again while weekly outflows stay under 123,200 mt, the arrival-led character of this destock is reconfirmed and its price support is weaker than it looks; if outflows recover, demand is finally participating. Watch also whether billet inventory (143,000 mt) keeps moving opposite to ingot, and whether cast alloy ingot inventory (28,100 mt) builds for a third week.
  • ⚑ Whether South China’s +160 and the 450 Nanhai-minus-Shanghai spread hold — today’s 10:15 assessment is the only test. This is the level three independent calibers now agree on (SMM premia, cnal absolute prices, Chalco quotations) and it is also the extreme of the run. A fall below +100 with the spread back inside 400 makes Friday look like pre-weekend hold-out; East China moving from parity to an outright premium upgrades “the physical is firmer than the board” from a three-day sequence to a structural fact. Whether Central China’s −60 keeps narrowing is worth recording too.
  • ⚑ The timing structure of the sanctions detail, not the detail itself. The press conference is 02:00 Beijing on August 25 — one hour after the SHFE night session closes at 01:00, and at the LME close of 19:00 London — so neither exchange can price it on the day. Everything between 21:00 and 01:00 tonight is therefore positioning ahead of it. Two things to watch: whether the night session shows open-interest movement unconnected to fundamentals, and whether the package touches aluminium- or alumina-related entities and shipping. If it does, the first venue that can price it is US hours and China’s first opportunity is tomorrow’s day session.
  • ⚑ Whether the Hormuz calibers converge, and whether bulk shipping recovers. This brief now carries four irreconcilable figures (~20%, zero, one, and seven-versus-fourteen). What matters is not which is right but whether a continuous, comparable series appears that covers BULK carriers rather than tankers only. Iran’s concession is oil-specific and does not touch the alumina raw-material shipping Gulf refineries and smelters depend on; if bulk access shows no sign of recovery, the IAI’s −44% y/y Gulf output gap extends into September.
  • ⚑ Alumina: AO2610’s relationship to full cost at 2,718, and whether the market begins pricing October’s Yarwun cut. The board closed 20 yuan beneath full cost, and MA40 (2,699.95) is the only average above it, by just 1.95. Watch two things: whether it reclaims MA40 and moves toward 2,718, and whether the FOB East Australia quote ($363–364) shows any change tied to the 1.2 mtpa schedule. ⚑ October is still five to six weeks out, so this is a record-early, track-weekly item and should NOT be expected to show on the board today (interpretation).
  • ⚑ LME: whether cash holds MA5 ($3,218.30) and MA40 ($3,194.51), and the direction of the first stock change after five identical prints. If cash advances to MA20 ($3,245.62) and SMM’s band ceiling ($3,250), the LME completes a range shift ahead of Shanghai. Watch also whether the contango widens beyond −$17.00 and whether the SHFE-LME ratio (7.347) keeps compressing — continued compression means the bid is still offshore. ⊘ And note the $1.50 caliber gap between cnal and Westmetall; do not compute a change across the two.
  • ⚑ The Jackson Hole countdown: today is the first of four sessions before Warsh speaks on August 28. With three different September hike probabilities in circulation (39.0% / 36.6% / 30.6%), any magnitude-based inference on rate pricing has lost resolution, so today through Wednesday the thing to watch is the dollar itself: a fourth consecutive close below 99 with hike pricing not retreating establishes the decoupling as real; a move back above 99 makes the last three sessions a positioning artefact. This is the last window in which that question can be answered inside this week.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新交易时段、按构造不变的数据;标注「此为推算」者为本简报依据已列示数据自行计算所得,并非原始来源发布之数值。涉及吨耗系数(碳阳极 0.40–0.45 吨/吨铝、氧化铝 1.93 吨/吨铝)的推算,其系数已在正文中明示,结果随系数取值而变。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only figures, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” are unchanged by construction because no session has traded since the prior edition; items marked “(derivation)” are calculated by this brief from the data listed and were not published as such by the original source. Derivations using consumption ratios (0.40–0.45 t carbon anode per t aluminium; 1.93 t alumina per t aluminium) state those ratios explicitly in the text, and their results vary with the ratio chosen.