Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

The missing night session opened at 23,800, above the whole resistance band. SHFE reclaims its 5-day average and spot beats the board.缺失的夜盘以 23,800 开盘,高于整个阻力带;沪铝收复 5 日均线,现货强于盘面。

Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Tuesday August 25 (Asia), BEFORE the SHFE day session opens. ⚑ THE CENTRAL FACT OF THIS EDITION IS THAT THE THREE-EDITION BLIND SPOT IS CLOSED: the August 21 night session (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to the August 24 trading day and is now inside the exchange's August 24 file, so the open of 23,800 IS that session's first print. Every SHFE and alumina figure below is the August 24 trading day (night + day combined) as published by the exchange, not an estimate. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the full August 24 SHFE and alumina board; the August 24 LME settlement and a sixth identical stock print; the full cnal five-caliber spot table for August 24 plus Chalco's producer quotation and a FIFTH caliber in Guangdong Nanchu; China's July aluminium foil and plate/sheet/strip export series (SMM, published August 24); SHFE cast aluminium alloy warrant data for August 24; the contents and — more importantly — the DEFERRAL structure of the US Treasury sanctions package; a fourth consecutive hawkish repricing on the Fed monitor; a dollar and Brent print for August 24; Rio Tinto's own Yarwun language, which CORRECTS this brief's prior framing; and the Jackson Hole theme and the July 29 dissent count. ⊘ STILL NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM's A00 absolute quote, SMM's regional transaction premia, SMM's sentiment indices, SMM's social inventory print, the alumina spot assessments and the AD2610 board, all for August 24; and the August 24 night session (belonging to today's trading day). MA30, MA40 and MA60 on both exchanges cannot be re-derived exactly because the dropped session's close is not retrievable; they are given as BOUNDED derivations instead of being restated as if unchanged.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE BLIND SPOT IS CLOSED — AND IT OPENED AT 23,800 The Aug 21 night session's first print was 23,800, ABOVE the entire 23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795 band. The band was gapped through, not tested from below
⚑ AND THE DAY EXTENDED TO 23,865 — 70 ABOVE THE BROKEN LOW AL2610 Aug 24: open 23,800, high 23,865, low 23,705, close 23,765, settlement 23,785. Prior settlement 23,620, so +145 (+0.61%) on the settlement caliber
⚑ THEN IT WAS GIVEN BACK: CLOSE 23,765, THIRTY BELOW 23,795 Close-to-close only +55 (+0.23%) against Friday's 23,710. The band is now PROVEN TRADABLE BUT NOT HELD — a different fact from 'untouched since it broke'
⚑ MA5 IS RECLAIMED — 23,740.00, held by 25.00 Recomputed, not restated: MA5 falls from 23,794.00 to 23,740.00 as Aug 17's 24,035 drops out. The close is above it for the first time since Aug 18
⚑ AND THE PRICE NOW SITS BETWEEN MA5 AND MA20 MA5 23,740.00 below by 25.00; MA20 23,821.25 above by 56.25. First time in this sequence the close is bracketed by the two. MA10 23,924.50 is 159.50 above
⚑ FOUR OF SIX AVERAGES RECLAIMED, UP FROM THREE Above MA5, MA30, MA40, MA60; below MA10 and MA20. Retracement of the Aug 3–12 advance improves from 89.1% to 80.6% (derivation)
⊘ MA30 / MA40 / MA60 ARE BOUNDED, NOT RESTATED The dropped session's close is not retrievable, so they are given as ranges: MA60 ≈ 23,585–23,619, held by 146 to 180 for ANY plausible dropped close (derivation)
⚑ Volume −18.3% and open interest −3,736 on a higher close 143,183 lots against 175,287; OI 263,702 against 267,438. Price up on falling participation and falling OI is covering, not new length (interpretation)
⚑ ALL FOUR ABSOLUTE SPOT CALIBERS BEAT THE BOARD AGAIN Changjiang +130 (23,800), Shanghai spot +120 (23,800), Nanhai +120 (24,250), Guangdong Nanchu +110 (23,960) against the board's +55. Fourth straight session
⚑ A FOUR-WAY CLUSTER SITS AT EXACTLY 23,800 The Aug 24 open, Changjiang, Shanghai spot and Chalco's East China quotation are all 23,800 — 35 above the board's close (derivation; different calibers, no basis computed)
Nanhai-minus-Shanghai holds 450 — the run's widest, unchanged Sequence now 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450. It did not widen further and it did not give back
⊘ BUT THE SOUTH CHINA PREMIUM SPANS 150 TO 450 BY CALIBER Chalco South−East 150 (narrowed from 160), Nanchu−Shanghai 160, Nanhai−Shanghai 450. Different specifications and delivery bases. Listed, NOT reconciled
⚑ NEW: BESSENT DELIVERED — AND DEFERRED 'Operation Economic Outcast': secondary-sanction categories extended to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and SHIPPING; nearly 60 entities, individuals and VESSELS designated
⚑ BUT THE OPERATIVE MEASURES WERE NOT IMPOSED Not immediate, no deadline, no named countries — 'giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior'. The risk is EXTENDED, neither realised nor removed (interpretation)
⚑ SHIPPING IS THE CHANNEL THAT TOUCHES ALUMINIUM Bulk alumina and raw-material freight into and out of the Gulf runs on the same category. An undated shipping-sanctions overhang cannot be priced to a calendar (interpretation)
⚑ AND YESTERDAY'S TIMING DERIVATION WAS CORRECT The presser ran at 02:00 Beijing — one hour after the SHFE night close, at the LME close. Neither exchange priced it. TODAY'S DAY SESSION IS CHINA'S FIRST OPPORTUNITY
⚑ FOURTH STRAIGHT HAWKISH REPRICING: SEPT 39.0% → 42.4% Investing.com monitor, Aug 24 20:35 EDT. Sept hold 57.6%. October: hold 41.7%, +25bp 46.6%, +50bp 11.7% — A HIKE IS NOW THE MODAL OCTOBER OUTCOME
⚑ December implied ≥1 hike rises 71.2% → 75.2% (derivation) Dec 9: hold 24.8% / one 44.6% / two 25.8% / three 4.7%. Hold has fallen below one-quarter
⚑ AND THE TWO FUTURES-IMPLIED CALIBERS HAVE CONVERGED CME-caliber 42.10% against this brief's 42.4% — a 0.3pp gap where three editions ago the spread was 8.4pp. ⊘ A prediction-market caliber at 27.6% is now the lone outlier
⚑ THE DOLLAR ROSE WITH IT — 98.9882, +0.19% (TradingEconomics) A FOURTH consecutive close below 99, but by 0.0118. Dollar UP on hawkish repricing is the decoupling thesis FAILING its own falsification test (interpretation)
⊘ A second dollar caliber reads 98.693 for the same cut-off Open 98.753, high 98.801, low 98.676. Listed against 98.9882; NOT reconciled, and no change is computed across the two
LME cash $3,215.50 (−$11.50, −0.36%), 3M $3,235.00 Contango widens to −$19.50 from −$17.00. Cash holds MA5 ($3,207.00) by $8.50; below MA10 ($3,251.45) by $35.95
⚑ LME stocks 246,925 mt — a SIXTH identical print, Aug 17–24 Six consecutive sessions at the same tonne. Neither inflow nor outflow at the run's absolute low
⚑ SHFE-LME ratio EXPANDS 7.347 → 7.391 (derivation) Shanghai up 0.23% against London down 0.36%. The compression of the last week has reversed — the bid moved back onshore for a session
⚑ NEW: July aluminium FOIL exports 118,800 mt, −9.3% m/m From June's 131,000 mt. Jan–Jul 802,000 mt. SMM still calls the 1.3 mt full-year target achievable (SMM, published Aug 24)
⚑ NEW: July PLATE/SHEET & STRIP exports 321,900 mt, −9.1% m/m From June's 354,000 mt, but +24% y/y. Jan–Jul 2,111,300 mt (SMM, published Aug 24)
⚑ THAT MAKES FOUR EXPORT SERIES THAT TURNED IN JULY Anodes −24.40%, unwrought-and-semis −9.6%, foil −9.3%, plate/sheet/strip −9.1%. Four separately compiled series, one month, same direction (derivation)
⚑ BUT BOTH NEW SERIES STILL RUN ABOVE THEIR OWN YTD AVERAGE Foil July 118,800 vs a Jan–Jul average of 114,571; P&S July 321,900 vs 301,614. The m/m falls are off ELEVATED June bases (derivation)
⚑ AND THE FOIL TARGET NEEDS ONLY 84% OF JULY'S RATE 1.3 mt less 802,000 = 498,000 mt over five months = 99,600 mt/month against July's 118,800 (derivation). The target requires deceleration, not acceleration
⊘ CORRECTION: YARWUN IS NOT A METAL SUPPLY CUT Rio Tinto's own release: 'no impact to customer requirements', bauxite mines and SMELTERS continue at FULL CAPACITY. Yesterday's 622,000 mt/yr is a unit conversion only
⚑ NEW: cast alloy warrants 20,208 mt, +241 (Guangdong +180) Jiangsu +91; Chongqing and Sichuan slightly lower. Alongside cast alloy social inventory +2,500 mt for a second week — the alloy calibers BUILD while ingot draws
⚑ Alumina AO2610 high 2,718 EQUALS July full cost EXACTLY Open 2,698, high 2,718, low 2,688, close 2,690, settlement 2,702. The board touched full cost to the yuan and closed 28 BELOW it
⊘ SMM's Aug 24 social inventory print is NOT retrievable Carried at 875,000 mt (Aug 20). ⚑ A '616,000 mt, +20,000 from last Thursday' figure in circulation is from an SMM article dated AUGUST 26, 2025 — a year old. NOT used
⚑ Brent fell more than 2% to below $93 into the announcement One caliber $93.16 (−1.35%). A second consecutive session lower against the 93.87 / 94.39 pair carried. Cost and risk premia softened as the package landed
⚑ Jackson Hole: theme is 'Financial Innovation', Warsh Aug 28 ⚑ NEW CONTEXT: the July 29 hold carried THREE dissents for a hike — the first triple same-direction dissent since September 2016 (secondary, corroborated)

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 8月25日(周二)上午,沪铝日盘开盘之前。
  • ⚑ 连续三期的盲区已被补齐。 8月21日夜盘(周五 21:00 至周六 01:00)归属 8月24日交易日,现已包含在交易所 8月24日日行情文件之中。因此下文所载 8月24日的开盘价 23,800 元,就是该夜盘时段的第一笔成交价,并非估计值。
  • ⚑ 本期沪铝与氧化铝的全部价格、结算价、成交量与持仓量,均为 8月24日交易日(夜盘 + 日盘合并)的交易所公布数据。
  • ⊘ 8月24日夜盘(归属今日 8月25日交易日)未取得,不作估计。
  • ⊘ MA30、MA40、MA60 本期无法精确重算——被移出窗口的那一交易日收盘价不可取得。本简报因此改以「有界推算」列示,而不将其按「不变」重述。MA5、MA10、MA20 的全部输入值均已在此前各期中列示,故可精确重算。

⚑ 沪铝 AL2610:密集带在开盘即被跳空穿越,收盘又被交还

  • AL2610(主力):开 23,800,高 23,865,低 23,705,收 23,765,结算 23,785,前结算 23,620。收盘对前结算 +145(+0.61%);收盘对收盘 +55(+0.23%)。成交 143,183 手(前值 175,287,−32,104,−18.3%);持仓 263,702 手(前值 267,438,−3,736)。
  • ⚑ 开盘价 23,800 元高于整条密集带(23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795)。该带并未自下方被测试,而是在交易日第一笔成交中即被跳空穿越(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 盘中最高 23,865 元,高出已跌破的 8月14日低点 23,795 元 70 元;而收盘 23,765 元低于该低点 30 元。该带的正确表述由此改为:「已被穿越,但未被守住」。
  • AL2609 收 23,760(+140 对前结算;收盘对收盘 +65),结算 23,780,成交 39,370 手,持仓 111,851 手(−4,676)。AL2611 收 23,780;AL2612 收 23,750;AL2701 收 23,715;AL2702 收 23,705;AL2703 收 23,735。
  • ⚑ 品种合计成交 228,302 手(前值 295,207,−66,905,−22.7%);合计持仓 603,198 手(前值 608,693,−5,495)(均为推算)。

⚑ 均线:MA5 已收复,价格首次被 MA5 与 MA20 夹住

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,740.00(精确重算:8月17日的 24,035 移出窗口,8月24日的 23,765 进入)。收盘高于 MA5 25.00 元——MA5 已收复。
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,924.50(精确重算)。收盘低于 MA10 159.50 元。
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,821.25(精确重算:7月27日的 23,195 移出窗口)。收盘低于 MA20 56.25 元。
  • ⚑ 由此,收盘价 23,765 首次落在 MA5(23,740.00)与 MA20(23,821.25)之间——本轮序列中的首次(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ MA30 = 23,590.83 + (23,765 − X₃₀)/30;MA40 = 23,400.00 + (23,765 − X₄₀)/40;MA60 = 23,597.58 + (23,765 − X₆₀)/60,其中 X 为被移出窗口的收盘价,均不可取得。
  • ⚑ 有界推算:若 X₆₀ 落在 22,500–24,500 区间内,则 MA60 落在 23,585–23,619 之间,收盘高于 MA60 146 至 180 元。无论取值如何,MA60 今日均不在争议范围之内(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 同法:MA40 落在 23,382–23,432,收盘高出 333 至 383 元;MA30 落在 23,580–23,623,收盘高出 142 至 185 元(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 因此六条均线收复四条(MA5、MA30、MA40、MA60),较上期的三条增加一条;仍低于 MA10 与 MA20。
  • ⚑ 对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例由 89.1% 改善至 80.6%;收盘高于 8月3日起点 23,640 元 125 元(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 20 日与 60 日分位数本期不列示——重算所需的完整收盘序列不可取得。

解读:一次「被穿越而未被守住」的上行

  • ⚑ 技术层面的诚实表述只有一句:密集带既没有守住,也没有被有效突破。 它在开盘时被跳空越过,盘中被拉高 70 元,收盘时又退回其下 30 元。这比一次干净的突破弱,比一个从未被触及的天花板强。
  • ⚑ 而内部结构不支持按面值接受这次上行。 成交量减少 18.3%、持仓减少 3,736 手,而收盘上涨。价涨、量缩、仓减,是空头回补与减仓,而非新增多头(此为解读)。这恰是面对一场两个交易所都无法交易的公告时,应当出现的形态。
  • ⚑ 今日唯一有意义的区间是 23,795 至 23,821.25。 下方 MA5(23,740.00)刚刚由阻力转为支撑。

⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610:盘中最高 2,718 元,与 7 月完全成本分文不差

  • AO2610:开 2,698,高 2,718,低 2,688,收 2,690,结算 2,702,前结算 2,685。收盘对前结算 +5(+0.19%);收盘对收盘 −8(−0.30%)。成交 209,342 手(−32,370);持仓 271,274 手(−13,636)。
  • ⚑ 盘中最高 2,718 元,与 SMM 所载 7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元/吨完全一致;收盘 2,690 元低于该成本 28 元。
  • ⚑ 就本简报所载的收盘序列而言,上一次结算于 2,718 元及以上者为 8月11日的 2,727 元(此为推算;其间各日的盘中最高价本简报并未持有)。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝各条均线本期无法重算,被移出窗口的收盘价不可取得。8月21日的一组数值(MA5 2,681.40、MA10 2,691.50、MA20 2,678.70、MA30 2,685.93、MA40 2,699.95、MA60 2,753.25)仅供参照,不得与新收盘价作差。
  • AO2609 收 2,682;AO2611 收 2,705;AO2701 收 2,740。

⚑ 伦铝:现货回落,库存第六次印记完全相同

  • Westmetall 官方口径,8月24日:现货结算 3,215.50 美元(−11.50,−0.36%);三个月 3,235.00 美元(−9.00,−0.28%);contango 由 −17.00 美元扩至 −19.50 美元;库存 246,925 吨。
  • ⚑ 库存 8月17、18、19、20、21、24 日六个交易日印记完全相同,零变动,且处于本轮绝对低位。
  • ⚑ 伦铝均线:MA5 = 3,207.00 美元(精确重算),现货高于 8.50 美元;MA10 = 3,251.45 美元(精确重算),现货低于 35.95 美元。⊘ MA20、MA40、MA60 无法精确重算,分别约为 3,244–3,251、约 3,195、约 3,293 美元(有界推算)。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比值由 7.347 扩大至 7.391(23,765 ÷ 3,215.50,此为推算)。上周的比值压缩已反转——买盘至少在一个交易日内回到内盘。
  • ⊘ 口径并列:TradingEconomics 载 8月24日为 3,218.25 美元(−0.94%,月度 +1.49%,年度 +21.99%),该序列跟踪远月;SMM 页面另载一条 3,217.50 美元(+5)的实时报价,时点在 8月24日收市之后。三者仅列示,不调和,不在其间计算变动。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 8月24日现货:四套绝对口径全部跑赢盘面

  • ⚑ 世铝网口径,8月24日:长江 23,800 元(+130,区间 23,780–23,820);上海现货 23,800 元(+120,区间 23,780–23,820);南海有色 24,250 元(+120,区间 24,200–24,300);⚑ 广东南储 23,960 元(+110,区间 23,930–23,990)——本简报首次载入的第五套口径;⊘ 华通 99.7% 本期未显示。
  • ⚑ 中铝报价,8月24日:华东 23,800 元(+120)、华南 23,950 元(+110)、西南 23,830 元(+110)、华中 23,740 元(+120)。
  • ⚑ 推算:四套绝对现货口径的涨幅(+130 / +120 / +120 / +110)全部高于盘面收盘对收盘的 +55,超出幅度为 55 至 75 元。这是连续第四个交易日现货强于盘面。
  • ⚑ 推算:8月24日开盘价、长江、上海现货、中铝华东四者同为 23,800 元,构成一个四重簇,高出盘面收盘 35 元(⊘ 口径性质不同,不据此计算基差)。
  • ⚑ 推算:南海减上海 450 元,与上一交易日持平,仍为本轮最阔;序列 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450。南储减上海 160 元。中铝华南减华东 150 元,较上一交易日的 160 元收窄 10 元。
  • ⊘ 华南升水因此按口径不同,跨度自 150 元至 450 元。这是不同规格与不同交割地的报价,仅列示,不调和。此前各期以「+160」代表华南强度的简写,不应被当作唯一数值。
  • ⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分地区成交升贴水与出货/采购情绪指数,8月21日与 8月24日均未取得。继续载入 8月20日数值:A00 23,600 元(区间 23,580–23,620);华南 +160 / 华东 0 / 华中 −60;华东出货 3.2、采购 3.16;华中出货 3.1、采购 2.9。
  • ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨(SMM,8月20日周度口径,转载);海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元/吨,马来西亚 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元,泰国 FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元;非洲铝锭 2,850 美元/吨(全部转载)。
  • 氧化铝:中国现货约 2,681.62 元/吨(SMM 综合,转载);中国以外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。⊘ 两者 8月24日印记均未取得。

解读

  • ⚑ 本栏最硬的一条事实是连续第四个交易日的方向一致:四套独立编制的绝对价格表,以及中铝的厂家挂牌,在同一天全部跑赢盘面。 这已不能用单一机构的评估方法来解释。
  • ⚑ 但本期必须刺破本简报自己的简写。 华南强度此前被压缩为一个数字「+160」;而今日第五套口径到位后,三条价差分别为 150(中铝,且在收窄)、160(南储)与 450(南海)。方向由全部口径支持,幅度不被任何两套口径共同支持。
  • ⚑ 中铝华南减华东由 160 收窄至 150,是本轮首次出现的收窄。 单日 10 元不构成结论,但它是「极值待验」问题的第一条实证读数(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⊘ 本期最大的空缺:SMM 社会库存印记未取得

  • ⊘ SMM 国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存 8月24日印记未取得。继续载入 8月20日的 87.5 万吨;序列 100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5。「是否达到连续第六次去库」这一问题本期无法回答。
  • ⚑ 并须明确排除一条正在流传的数据:「8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝库存 61.6 万吨,较上周四 +2.0 万吨、较上周一 +0.9 万吨」。经核,该表述出自 SMM 于 2025 年 8月26日 发布的文章,系一年之前的数据。本简报不采用,并在此列示以避免其被误引。
  • 上期所 8月17日–8月21日库存周报:铝 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨(转载;下一次更新为本周五)。
  • 伦铝库存 246,925 吨,8月17–24日六个交易日印记完全相同(⚑ 本期由五次延长为六次)。
  • ⚑ 新增:上期所铸造铝合金注册仓单 8月24日为 20,208 吨,较上一交易日 +241 吨;其中广东 +180 吨、江苏 +91 吨,重庆与四川小幅下降。
  • 铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨);铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨);铸造铝合金锭社会库存 28,100 吨(环比 +2,500 吨,连续第二周累积)(全部转载)。
  • ⊘ 各套库存口径的统计窗口与覆盖范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期能够确认的,不是原铝库存的方向,而是合金端的方向——而它与原铝相反。 铸造铝合金的两套口径(交易所仓单 +241 吨、社会库存 +2,500 吨)同时累积,而原铝的每一套可见口径都在持平或下降。这是一条清晰的分化,且它出现在再生对原生升水由 80 元扩至 300 元之后(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存第六次印记完全相同,其信息量随次数递增。 在本轮绝对低位上连续六个交易日既无入库也无出库,意味着可交割金属既未被吸走、也未被补充。
  • ⊘ 而必须承认:今日最重要的国内数据本期缺失,且这一缺失不能由其他口径替代。 上期所周报为周度、口径不同;伦铝为海外。社会库存印记到位之前,「去库是否延续」这一问题应被视为未决,而不是被默认为延续。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 制裁方案落地:范畴扩大,但实施被推迟

  • ⚑ 美国财政部长贝森特于美东时间 8月24日下午 2:00 公布制裁方案,命名为「经济弃儿行动」(Operation Economic Outcast)。
  • ⚑ 次级制裁范畴扩大至:数字资产、技术、黄金、航空,以及航运。财政部同时指定近 60 个实体、个人及船舶,涉及核与导弹技术非法采购、网络行动及石油走私。
  • ⚑ 但实质措施并未立即实施。 贝森特在记者会上表示,措施「不会立即施加」,并称「我们给予各方纠正不当行为的机会」;未设定任何最后期限,亦未指名任何国家;同时表示若对方不作回应,「预计很快就会看到其行为的后果」,并称政府「并非拥有无限的耐心」。特朗普正联系各国领导人,要求其支持对伊朗政权的「经济窒息」。
  • ⚑ 对铝的传导路径只有一条,而且是明确的:航运与船舶。 海湾精炼厂与电解铝厂所依赖的氧化铝及原料散货运输,正落在这一新增范畴之内;而国际铝业协会所载海湾 7 月产量已为同比 −44%(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 因此本期的结论既非利多亦非利空:事件风险被延长,而非被解除或被兑现。一个没有日期的航运制裁悬置,无法被定价到日历上(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 上期的时点推算完全成立:发布会为北京时间 8月25日 02:00,在沪铝夜盘收市之后一小时、恰在伦铝收市时点,两个交易所均未能在当日定价。今日日盘是中国市场的第一次定价机会。

⚑ 利率:连续第四次鹰派重定价,而美元这次跟上了

  • ⚑ Investing.com 联储利率监测器(8月24日 20:35 美东):9月16日 FOMC 维持 57.6% / 加息 42.4%。较本简报上期所载的 61.0% / 39.0%,加息概率上升 3.4 个百分点,为连续第四个交易日的鹰派重定价。
  • ⚑ 10月28日:维持 41.7% / 加息一次 46.6% / 加息两次 11.7%。⚑ 加息首次成为 10 月的众数结果,而维持概率由 47.0% 降至 41.7%(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 12月9日:维持 24.8% / 一次 44.6% / 两次 25.8% / 三次 4.7%;隐含至少加息一次概率由 71.2% 升至 75.2%(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 口径收敛:CME 口径所载 8月24日 9 月加息概率为 42.10%,与本简报主口径的 42.4% 相差 0.3 个百分点。三期之前两套口径相差 8.4 个百分点。⊘ 另有一套预测市场口径读作维持 71.2% / 加息 27.6%,现为唯一离群值。四套并列,不调和。
  • ⚑ 美元:TradingEconomics 载 8月24日美元指数为 98.9882(+0.19%)。这是连续第四个交易日收在 99 下方,但仅低 0.0118。
  • ⚑ 本简报三期之前设定的证伪检验为:美元在鹰派重定价下不涨,则称为真实脱钩;美元回升,则称为仓位现象。8月24日美元在鹰派重定价下上涨。该假说在自设的检验中被证伪,本简报据此记录,而不再重述该假说(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 美元第二套口径:另一来源载同一截止时点的开 98.753、高 98.801、低 98.676、收 98.693。与 98.9882 并列,不调和,不在两者之间计算变动。
  • 布伦特:8月24日跌逾 2% 至 93 美元下方,一套口径载 93.16 美元(−1.35%)。与本简报此前所载的 93.87 / 94.39 美元并列。这是连续第二个交易日下跌,且下跌发生在制裁公布当日。

⚑ 时钟:杰克逊霍尔本周,并新增一条会议背景

  • ⚑ 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 8月27–29日,主题为「金融创新:对支付体系与政策的影响」。沃什主席(2026年5月22日就任)首次以主席身份发表主旨演讲为 8月28日(周五)上午。
  • ⚑ 新增背景:7月29日 FOMC 维持 3.50%–3.75% 不变,但有三位地区联储主席投下支持加息的反对票——为 2016 年 9 月以来首次出现三位委员同向反对(二手来源,多源印证)。沃什任内美联储不再于会前释放意图指引。
  • ⚑ 在演讲之前,沪铝仍将交易今日、周三、周四三个完整交易日,以及周五的日盘。
  • 中国政策转载:8月 LPR 维持 3.00% 与 3.50%,为连续第十五个月不变。

解读:宏观栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 本期宏观栏在每一条线上都转为对铝不利,唯一的例外是航运制裁这一供给侧尾部风险。 加息概率上升、10 月加息成为众数、12 月隐含概率上升、美元上涨、原油下跌——五条之中四条为压制,第五条(原油下跌)同时移除了成本支撑与风险溢价。
  • ⚑ 而方法上出现一次真实的改善:两套期货隐含口径已收敛至 0.3 个百分点之内。 这意味着「以概率变动作推论」在本期重新具备分辨率——而它给出的第一条读数,就是连续第四次鹰派重定价。
  • ⚑ 制裁方案的正确读法是结构而非内容。 范畴扩大是实质的,指定名单是实质的,但实施被推迟且无日期。这类风险不会消失,也无法被提前消化;它只会在某个未公布的时点一次性到达。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 新增:7 月铝箔与铝板带出口——第三、第四条同月环比转向的序列

  • ⚑ 中国 7 月铝箔出口 118,800 吨,环比 −9.3%(6 月为 131,000 吨);1–7 月累计 802,000 吨。SMM 仍认为全年 130 万吨目标可实现(SMM 口径,8月24日发布)。
  • ⚑ 中国 7 月铝板带出口 321,900 吨,环比 −9.1%(6 月为 354,000 吨),同比 +24%;1–7 月累计 2,111,300 吨(SMM 口径,8月24日发布)。
  • ⚑ 推算:连同已载的预焙阳极 −24.40% 与未锻轧铝及铝材 −9.6%,现已有四条彼此独立编制、覆盖产业链不同环节的出口序列,在 7 月同时环比转向。
  • ⚑ 推算:铝箔与铝板带 7 月合计 440,700 吨,6 月合计 485,000 吨,合计环比 −44,300 吨、−9.13%。

解读:同一组数据自带的反向证据,必须一并列示

  • ⚑ 推算:铝箔 1–7 月月均 114,571 吨,7 月的 118,800 吨高于该月均 4,229 吨;铝板带 1–7 月月均 301,614 吨,7 月的 321,900 吨高于该月均 20,286 吨。两条新序列的 7 月读数,均仍高于其自身的年内月均。
  • ⚑ 因此,环比降幅是相对于偏高的 6 月基数,而非相对于趋势(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 推算:全年 130 万吨目标减去 1–7 月的 802,000 吨,余 498,000 吨,分摊至 8 至 12 月为每月 99,600 吨,仅为 7 月 118,800 吨的 84%。该目标所需要的是减速,而不是加速。
  • ⚑ 结论必须精确:「运行速率已经转向」是有证据支持的;「运行速率正在崩塌」是没有证据支持的。本简报只主张前者。

⊘ 更正:Yarwun 减产不是金属供应减量——这是本简报自身的更正

  • ⚑ 上期将力拓 Yarwun 约 120 万吨/年的氧化铝减产,按 1.93 吨/吨系数换算为约 62.2 万吨/年原铝当量。
  • ⊘ 力拓公告原文载明:该减产「对客户需求无影响」,且力拓的铝土矿矿山与电解铝厂将继续满负荷运行。
  • ⚑ 因此,62.2 万吨/年这一数值仅为单位换算,不构成对金属供应减量的预测;将其作为金属减量解读,与生产商自身的指引相矛盾。本简报撤回该项金属层面的推论。
  • ⚑ 保留成立的部分:氧化铝减量是真实的、有确切启动月份(2026 年 10 月)的,且落在本简报所引的同一条 363–364 美元 FOB 东澳基准之上;减产原因为尾矿库容预计 2031 年填满,减产可将运营延续至 2035 年,涉及约 180 个岗位。

⚑ 转载:供应算式的两端

  • 中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%;中国以外同比 −6.7%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;国际铝业协会全球 7 月产量 616 万吨,同比 −1.7%(全部转载)。
  • 国际铝业协会海湾地区 7 月产量 29.3 万吨,同比 −44%;EGA 上半年产量 60.2 万吨,同比 −47%;EGA 阿联酋 Al Taweelah 已重启 1,262 台电解槽中的 18%;7 月铝水比例 78.3%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%(全部转载)。
  • 7 月预焙阳极出口 211,700 吨,同比 +21.86%、环比 −24.40%;印尼 95,400 吨(45%)、挪威 26,900 吨(13%)、马来西亚 22,700 吨(11%);均价 1,031.80 美元/吨,环比 +12.34%(转载)。
  • 中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;全国开工率 74.33%;总库存 724.5 万吨。南山铝业国际上半年:氧化铝销量 +15%,扣非净利 6,268.2 万美元、同比 −74.8%,均价 −39.5%(全部转载)。
  • ⊘ 运行产能口径冲突未变:二手来源载运行产能约 4,519–4,540 万吨、利用率 97.7%、逼近 4,543 万吨合规天花板;本简报此前载月末产能约 4,629 万吨。定义不同,仅列示。

⚑ 需求端:转载,并新增一条合金端的反向读数

  • ⚑ 新增:上期所铸造铝合金注册仓单 8月24日 20,208 吨(+241),广东 +180、江苏 +91;与铸造铝合金锭社会库存 28,100 吨(+2,500,连续第二周累积)方向一致。⚑ 推算:铸造铝合金的两套库存口径同时累积,而原铝的每一套口径均持平或下降。
  • 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩);7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%,新能源车出口 +147.8%;8月1–16日新能源乘用车零售约 39.9 万辆、同比 −15%、份额 63.6%(⊘ 二手来源);1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%;新房价格同比 −3.2%;铝加工开工率 60.0%;再生铝开工率 49.1%;7 月铝棒开工率 58.3%,SMM 对 8 月的预估约 56.9%;7 月废铝进口约 119,600 吨,环比 −10.1%;7 月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 64.3 万吨,同比 +18.6%、环比 −9.6%,1–7 月累计 404 万吨、同比 +16.7%。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期基本面的净结果是:偏空的一侧变宽,偏多的一侧变窄。 出口环比转向由两条序列扩展到四条,这是变宽;而 Yarwun 的金属含义被撤回,这是变窄。
  • ⚑ 但出口一栏的正确权重必须由同一组数据给出:两条新序列的 7 月读数仍高于其自身年内月均,且铝箔全年目标只需 7 月速率的 84%。 这不是「需求崩塌」的证据结构。
  • ⚑ 合金端与原生端的分化,是本期最容易被忽略、却最具体的一条:仓单在累、社会库存在累、而 ADC12 对 A00 的升水仍为 300 元。 升水扩大而库存同时累积,通常指向供给端的发票与原料约束,而非需求端的拉动(此为解读)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 8月24日:四套口径全部跑赢盘面,连续第四个交易日

  • ⚑ 涨幅排序(8月24日):长江 +130 > 上海现货 +120 = 南海 +120 = 中铝华东 +120 = 中铝华中 +120 > 广东南储 +110 = 中铝华南 +110 = 中铝西南 +110 > AL2610 收盘对收盘 +55。
  • ⚑ 推算:超出盘面的幅度为 55 至 75 元。四套绝对现货口径无一落后于盘面。
  • ⚑ 推算:8月24日开盘价 23,800、长江 23,800、上海现货 23,800、中铝华东 23,800 四者完全一致,高出盘面收盘 23,765 元 35 元。
  • ⚑ 推算:南海减上海 450 元(持平);南储减上海 160 元;中铝华南减华东 150 元(由 160 收窄 10 元)。
  • ⊘ SMM 分地区成交升贴水与情绪指数 8月21日、8月24日均未取得;延续载入 8月20日:华南 +160、华东 0、华中 −60;华东出货 3.2 / 采购 3.16,华中出货 3.1 / 采购 2.9。

解读

  • ⚑ 连续第四个交易日,现货强于盘面,且本期由五套价格表加中铝挂牌共同支持。 这是本简报目前持有的、最稳定的一条方向性证据。
  • ⚑ 但幅度不可被单一数字代表。 华南减华东(或减上海)的三条价差分别为 150、160、450,跨度接近三倍。引用任何一条时,必须同时说明其口径。
  • ⚑ 而华东仍处于观察位置。 中铝华东挂牌 23,800 元高于盘面收盘 35 元,是一条弱的、间接的迹象;SMM 华东成交升贴水由平水转为实质升水,仍是本简报所等待的、最能确认需求侧参与的单一信号,而该数据本期未取得(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

  • ⚑ 新增:8月21日夜盘开盘 23,800 元,高于整条密集带(23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795),该带被跳空穿越而非自下方测试。
  • ⚑ 新增:8月24日盘中最高 23,865 元,高出已跌破的 8月14日低点 70 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:MA5 由 23,794.00 降至 23,740.00 并被收复,收盘高于 25.00 元;六条均线收复四条,较上期增加一条。
  • ⚑ 新增:对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例由 89.1% 改善至 80.6%;收盘高于 8月3日起点 125 元。
  • ⚑ 新增(有界推算):无论被移出窗口的收盘价取 22,500 至 24,500 之间的任何数值,收盘均高于 MA60 146 至 180 元。MA60 今日不在争议范围内。
  • ⚑ 新增:四套绝对现货口径(长江 +130、上海 +120、南海 +120、南储 +110)全部跑赢盘面 +55,连续第四个交易日。
  • ⚑ 新增:8月24日开盘价与三套现货口径同为 23,800 元,构成四重簇,高出盘面收盘 35 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:南海减上海 450 元维持本轮最阔,未回落。
  • ⚑ 新增:伦铝库存 246,925 吨连续第六个交易日零变动,处于本轮绝对低位。
  • ⚑ 新增:沪伦比值由 7.347 扩至 7.391,上周的比值压缩反转,买盘回到内盘。
  • ⚑ 新增:次级制裁范畴扩大至航运,并指定近 60 个实体、个人及船舶——海湾散货运输风险被制度化,且无解除日期。
  • ⚑ 新增:氧化铝 AO2610 盘中最高 2,718 元,与 7 月全国加权平均完全成本分文不差,成本侧仍具吸引力。
  • ⚑ 新增:7 月铝箔出口 118,800 吨高于其 1–7 月月均 114,571 吨;铝板带 321,900 吨高于其月均 301,614 吨——环比降幅源自偏高的 6 月基数。
  • ⚑ 新增:铝箔全年 130 万吨目标只需 8–12 月每月 99,600 吨,为 7 月速率的 84%,目标不需要加速。
  • ⚑ 新增:铝板带 7 月出口同比 +24%,1–7 月累计 2,111,300 吨。
  • ⚑ 转载:上期所周度库存 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨,较上一周的 −13,642 吨加速。
  • ⚑ 转载:国际铝业协会海湾 7 月产量 29.3 万吨、同比 −44%;EGA 上半年 −47%;中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%;全球同比 −1.7%。
  • ⚑ 转载:ADC12 对 A00 升水维持 300 元(由 80 元扩大而来);A00 对破碎生铝 1,150 元,废铝拒不跟随。
  • ⚑ 转载:7 月废铝进口 119,600 吨、环比 −10.1%,反向开票挤压加深。
  • ⚑ 转载:力拓 Yarwun 约 120 万吨/年氧化铝减产自 2026 年 10 月起,落在本简报所引的东澳 FOB 基准之上,距今约五周。
  • ⚑ 转载:国内电解铝运行产能贴近 4,543 万吨合规天花板、利用率 97.7%(⊘ 二手口径),供给刚性明确。
  • 转载:7 月铝水比例 78.3%、铸锭量同比 −15.1%,持续压制铝锭形成量。
  • 转载:日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
  • 转载:铝加工开工率 60.0%,环比 +0.1 个百分点;7 月未锻轧铝合金出口同比 +135.1%。
  • 转载:预焙阳极出口均价 1,031.80 美元/吨、环比 +12.34%,碳阳极成本上升推高各地电解成本。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 新增:8月24日收盘 23,765 元退回 23,795 元下方 30 元——密集带被穿越但未被守住。
  • ⚑ 新增:收盘对收盘仅 +55(+0.23%),而结算口径 +145(+0.61%),涨幅主要发生在夜盘且未能保持。
  • ⚑ 新增:成交 143,183 手环比 −18.3%,持仓 −3,736 手,而收盘上涨——价涨、量缩、仓减指向空头回补而非新增多头。
  • ⚑ 新增:品种合计成交 −22.7%、合计持仓 −5,495 手,参与度整体下降。
  • ⚑ 新增:MA20 升至 23,821.25 元,仍高于收盘 56.25 元;MA10 23,924.50 元高于收盘 159.50 元,六条均线仍有两条未收复。
  • ⚑ 新增:9 月加息概率由 39.0% 升至 42.4%,为连续第四个交易日的鹰派重定价。
  • ⚑ 新增:10 月维持概率由 47.0% 降至 41.7%,加息(46.6%)首次成为 10 月的众数结果。
  • ⚑ 新增:12 月隐含至少加息一次概率由 71.2% 升至 75.2%,维持概率已低于四分之一。
  • ⚑ 新增:美元指数升至 98.9882(+0.19%),在鹰派重定价下上涨——本简报此前的「脱钩」假说在自设检验中被证伪。
  • ⚑ 新增:布伦特跌逾 2% 至 93 美元下方(一套口径 93.16 美元),连续第二个交易日下跌,成本与风险溢价同时回落。
  • ⚑ 新增:制裁实质措施未立即实施、无最后期限、未指名国家——事件风险被推迟而非消化,且无法定价到日历上。
  • ⚑ 新增:7 月铝箔出口环比 −9.3%、铝板带环比 −9.1%,连同阳极 −24.40% 与铝材 −9.6%,四条独立出口序列同月环比转向。
  • ⚑ 新增:铝箔与铝板带 7 月合计环比 −44,300 吨、−9.13%。
  • ⚑ 新增:上期所铸造铝合金仓单 20,208 吨(+241),广东 +180;与铸造铝合金锭社会库存连续第二周 +2,500 吨同向累积。
  • ⊘ 新增更正:力拓公告载明 Yarwun 减产「对客户需求无影响」,其电解铝厂满负荷运行——上期所载 62.2 万吨/年原铝当量仅为单位换算,不构成金属减量,该项推论撤回。
  • ⊘ 新增:SMM 8月24日社会库存印记未取得,「连续第六次去库」无法确认;不得默认延续。
  • ⚑ 转载:中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨、同比 +3.8%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;7 月预焙阳极出口同比 +21.86%,印尼占 45%。
  • ⚑ 转载:南山铝业国际上半年销量 +15% 而扣非净利 −74.8%、均价 −39.5%,氧化铝过剩已进入利润表。
  • ⚑ 转载:中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨、同比 +5.2%;开工率 74.33% 未降;总库存 724.5 万吨。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨、环比 −0.1 万吨——去库仍由到货减少驱动,而非消费驱动。
  • ⚑ 转载:杰克逊霍尔 8月27–29日、沃什 8月28日首次以主席身份演讲;7月29日会议已出现三位同向反对票,为 2016 年 9 月以来首次。
  • ⚑ 转载:东南亚 ADC12 持续走弱(马来西亚 3,090 美元、泰国约 3,070 美元),非洲铝锭 2,850 美元/吨形成压制;再生铝开工率停滞于 49.1%。
  • ⚑ 转载:加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%;CBAM 自 2026年1月1日起覆盖铝,约 +47.5% 的缺省值上调仍然有效。
  • ⊘ 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩)、7 月乘用车零售 −20.9%、1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%、新房价格 −3.2%;8 月铝棒开工率预估回落至约 56.9%。

八 · 一句话观点

连续三期的盲区已被补齐,而其内容改写了技术判断:8月21日夜盘开盘 23,800 元、直接跳空越过整条密集带并延伸至 23,865 元,随后又交还至 23,765 元、退回 23,795 元下方 30 元,因此该带的正确表述是「已被穿越、未被守住」——同时 MA5 降至 23,740.00 元并被收复,价格首次被 MA5 与 MA20(23,821.25)夹住,六条均线收复四条,而成交 −18.3%、持仓 −3,736 手的组合指向空头回补而非新增多头;现货一侧连续第四个交易日全部跑赢盘面(长江 +130、上海 +120、南海 +120、南储 +110 对盘面 +55),但华南升水按口径不同跨度自 150 元至 450 元,幅度不可由单一数字代表;宏观一侧则在每条线上转为不利——9 月加息概率升至 42.4%、10 月加息成为众数、12 月隐含概率升至 75.2%,而美元在鹰派重定价下升至 98.9882,使本简报此前的「脱钩」假说在自设检验中被证伪;制裁方案将航运与船舶纳入次级制裁范畴却推迟实施且不设日期,事件风险被延长而非解除;而 SMM 社会库存印记本期未取得,「连续第六次去库」仍属未决。本简报不作任何投资建议,以上为已确认数据与其解读的分栏陈述。

九 · 今日(8月25日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 23,795 至 23,821.25 这条 26.25 元宽的区间,是今日唯一有意义的判据。 上沿为重算后的 MA20,下沿为已被跌破、昨日被跳空越过又被交还的 8月14日低点;区间之内还嵌着 23,800 元的四重簇(昨日开盘价、长江、上海现货、中铝华东)与 23,785 元的昨日结算价。收在该区间之上,则「穿越而未守住」升级为有效突破;收在 MA5(23,740.00)之下,则昨日的夜盘跳空被完整回补,四条已收复的均线退回三条。 昨日最高 23,865 元与最低 23,705 元是当日的两端。
  • ⚑ 今日 SMM 社会库存印记——本期缺失的最重要一项,且不应被默认为延续。 8月20日为 87.5 万吨,「是否达到连续第六次去库」目前未决。取得印记后须与周度出库量(12.32 万吨,环比 −0.1 万吨)合看:库存降而出库不增,仍为到货驱动型去库,其价格支撑弱于表面。 ⚑ 同时须注意流传中的「61.6 万吨」为 2025 年 8 月数据,不得引用。
  • ⚑ 制裁方案的第一次可定价时段就是今日日盘,而需要观察的是航运条款而非头条。 发布会已于北京时间凌晨 02:00 结束,两个交易所均未参与定价。具体应观察三点:一是是否有涉铝、涉氧化铝实体或散货船舶进入指定名单;二是「不立即实施」的表述是否在盘中被进一步明确或撤回;三是持仓是否出现与基本面无关的变动。 由于措施无最后期限,该风险不会在今日消化完毕。
  • ⚑ 现货一侧:第五个连续交易日能否维持「全部跑赢盘面」,以及三条华南价差是否开始收敛。 昨日中铝华南减华东由 160 元收窄至 150 元,是本轮首次收窄。需要观察南海减上海的 450 元是否跟随收窄——若跟随,则三条价差同向收敛,昨日的现货强势更接近阶段性顶部;若南海维持 450 元而中铝继续收窄,则说明差异来自规格与交割地,而非强度变化。 同时关注 SMM 华东成交升贴水能否恢复发布并由平水转为实质升水。
  • ⚑ 美元是否连续第五个交易日收在 99 下方,以及加息概率是否停止上行。 昨日美元在鹰派重定价下上涨至 98.9882,距 99 仅 0.0118。本简报此前的「脱钩」假说已被证伪,因此今日观察的不再是脱钩,而是方向本身:美元站上 99 且 9 月加息概率继续上行,则宏观压制进入新的一档;美元回落而概率维持,则昨日属单日现象。 另注意 CME 口径(42.10%)与本简报主口径(42.4%)已收敛至 0.3 个百分点,而预测市场口径(27.6%)为离群值。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:AO2610 能否再度触及 2,718 元,以及收盘能否站上该完全成本线。 昨日盘中最高 2,718 元与 7 月全国加权平均完全成本分文不差,收盘 2,690 元低于该线 28 元。盘面在完全成本之下运行,是氧化铝一栏目前唯一稳定的支撑逻辑;若今日收盘首次站上 2,718 元,则该逻辑由「支撑」转为「已兑现」。 ⊘ 并注意本简报的氧化铝均线本期无法重算,不得将 8月21日的均线组与新收盘价作差。
  • ⚑ 伦铝:现货能否守住 MA5(3,207.00 美元),以及六次相同印记之后库存的第一次变动方向。 现货 3,215.50 美元高于 MA5 仅 8.50 美元,contango 已由 −17.00 扩至 −19.50 美元。库存在本轮绝对低位连续六个交易日零变动,其第一次变动的方向,比变动幅度更具信息量。 同时关注沪伦比值(7.391)是否延续扩大——延续扩大意味着买盘留在内盘。
  • ⚑ 杰克逊霍尔倒计时:沪铝在沃什周五上午演讲之前仍将交易今日、周三、周四三个完整交易日与周五日盘。 本届主题为「金融创新:对支付体系与政策的影响」,并非直接的政策路径主题;而 7月29日会议已出现 2016 年 9 月以来首次的三位同向反对票。在两套期货隐含口径已收敛的条件下,本周对铝最具穿透力的宏观变量,仍是美元本身而非概率的小数点。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This edition is written on the morning of Tuesday, August 25, BEFORE the SHFE day session opens.
  • ⚑ THE THREE-EDITION BLIND SPOT IS CLOSED. The August 21 night session (21:00 Friday to 01:00 Saturday) belongs to the August 24 trading day and is now inside the exchange’s August 24 file. The open of 23,800 below IS that session’s first print. It is not an estimate.
  • ⚑ Every SHFE and alumina price, settlement, volume and open-interest figure below is the August 24 trading day (night plus day, combined) as published by the exchange.
  • ⊘ The August 24 night session, which belongs to today’s trading day, is NOT retrievable and is NOT estimated.
  • ⊘ MA30, MA40 and MA60 CANNOT be re-derived exactly this edition — the close dropping out of each window is not retrievable. They are therefore given as BOUNDED derivations rather than restated as if unchanged. MA5, MA10 and MA20 can be computed exactly because every input was published in prior editions.

⚑ SHFE AL2610: the band was gapped through on the open and handed back by the close

  • AL2610 (most-traded): open 23,800, high 23,865, low 23,705, close 23,765, settlement 23,785, prior settlement 23,620. Close versus prior settlement +145 (+0.61%); close-to-close +55 (+0.23%). Volume 143,183 lots (from 175,287, −32,104, −18.3%); open interest 263,702 (from 267,438, −3,736).
  • ⚑ The open of 23,800 sits ABOVE the entire dense band (23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795). The band was never tested from below — it was gapped through on the first trade of the trading day (derivation).
  • ⚑ The high of 23,865 sits 70 above the broken August 14 low of 23,795; the close of 23,765 sits 30 BELOW it. The correct description of that band is now “CLEARED BUT NOT HELD.”
  • AL2609 closed 23,760 (+140 on prior settlement; +65 close-to-close), settlement 23,780, volume 39,370, OI 111,851 (−4,676). AL2611 23,780; AL2612 23,750; AL2701 23,715; AL2702 23,705; AL2703 23,735.
  • ⚑ Complex totals: volume 228,302 lots (from 295,207, −66,905, −22.7%); open interest 603,198 (from 608,693, −5,495) (both derivations).

⚑ Moving averages: MA5 reclaimed, and the price is bracketed for the first time

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,740.00 (computed exactly: August 17’s 24,035 drops out, August 24’s 23,765 enters). The close is 25.00 ABOVE MA5 — reclaimed.
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,924.50 (computed exactly). The close is 159.50 below.
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,821.25 (computed exactly: July 27’s 23,195 drops out). The close is 56.25 below.
  • ⚑ The close of 23,765 therefore sits BETWEEN MA5 (23,740.00) and MA20 (23,821.25) — the first time in this sequence (derivation).
  • ⊘ MA30 = 23,590.83 + (23,765 − X₃₀)/30; MA40 = 23,400.00 + (23,765 − X₄₀)/40; MA60 = 23,597.58 + (23,765 − X₆₀)/60, where X is the dropped close and is not retrievable.
  • ⚑ Bounded derivation: for any X₆₀ between 22,500 and 24,500, MA60 lies between 23,585 and 23,619, and the close holds it by between 146 and 180. On any admissible value, MA60 IS NOT IN PLAY TODAY.
  • ⚑ Same method: MA40 lies between 23,382 and 23,432 (close above by 333 to 383); MA30 lies between 23,580 and 23,623 (close above by 142 to 185) (derivations).
  • ⚑ Four of six averages are therefore reclaimed (MA5, MA30, MA40, MA60) against three in the prior edition; the close remains below MA10 and MA20.
  • ⚑ The retracement of the August 3-to-12 advance improves from 89.1% to 80.6%, and the close sits 125 above the August 3 launch point of 23,640 (derivation).
  • ⊘ Twenty- and sixty-session percentiles are not shown this edition — the full close series needed to recompute them is not retrievable.

Interpretation: an advance that was cleared and not defended

  • ⚑ The honest technical statement is one sentence: the band was neither held nor broken. It was gapped over at the open, extended 70 higher intraday, and given back to 30 below by the close. That is weaker than a clean break and stronger than an untested ceiling.
  • ⚑ And the internals argue against taking the advance at face value. Volume fell 18.3% and open interest fell 3,736 on a higher close. Price up on falling participation and falling open interest is covering and position reduction, not fresh length (interpretation) — precisely the pattern to expect into an announcement neither exchange could trade.
  • ⚑ The only range that matters today is 23,795 to 23,821.25. Beneath it, MA5 at 23,740.00 has just turned from resistance into support.

⚑ Alumina AO2610: the high of 2,718 equals July full cost to the yuan

  • AO2610: open 2,698, high 2,718, low 2,688, close 2,690, settlement 2,702, prior settlement 2,685. Close versus prior settlement +5 (+0.19%); close-to-close −8 (−0.30%). Volume 209,342 (−32,370); open interest 271,274 (−13,636).
  • ⚑ The intraday high of 2,718 equals SMM’s July national weighted-average FULL COST of 2,718/mt exactly. The close of 2,690 sits 28 BELOW it.
  • ⚑ On the closes this brief has carried, the last settlement at or above 2,718 was August 11’s 2,727 (derivation from carried closes; the intraday highs in between are not held by this brief).
  • ⊘ The alumina moving averages cannot be recomputed this edition. The August 21 set (MA5 2,681.40, MA10 2,691.50, MA20 2,678.70, MA30 2,685.93, MA40 2,699.95, MA60 2,753.25) is shown for reference ONLY and must not be differenced against the new close.
  • AO2609 closed 2,682; AO2611 2,705; AO2701 2,740.

⚑ LME: cash eases, and stocks print identically for a sixth session

  • Westmetall official caliber, August 24: cash settlement $3,215.50 (−$11.50, −0.36%); three-month $3,235.00 (−$9.00, −0.28%); contango widens from −$17.00 to −$19.50; stocks 246,925 mt.
  • ⚑ Stocks have printed 246,925 mt on August 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and 24 — SIX consecutive identical sessions, at the absolute low of this run.
  • ⚑ LME moving averages: MA5 = $3,207.00 (computed exactly), cash above by $8.50; MA10 = $3,251.45 (computed exactly), cash below by $35.95. ⊘ MA20, MA40 and MA60 cannot be computed exactly; they lie at roughly $3,244–3,251, ~$3,195 and ~$3,293 respectively (bounded).
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio EXPANDS from 7.347 to 7.391 (23,765 ÷ 3,215.50, derivation). Last week’s compression has reversed — the bid was onshore for at least one session.
  • ⊘ Calibers listed side by side: TradingEconomics reads $3,218.25 for August 24 (−0.94% on its own caliber, monthly +1.49%, yearly +21.99%) and tracks the forward, not cash; an SMM page carried a live quote of $3,217.50 (+$5) timestamped after the August 24 close. All three listed, NOT reconciled, and no change is computed across them.

⚑ August 24 spot: all four absolute calibers beat the board

  • ⚑ cnal caliber, August 24: Changjiang 23,800 (+130, range 23,780–23,820); Shanghai spot 23,800 (+120, range 23,780–23,820); Nanhai 24,250 (+120, range 24,200–24,300); ⚑ Guangdong Nanchu 23,960 (+110, range 23,930–23,990) — a FIFTH caliber, new to this brief; ⊘ Huatong 99.7% not displayed this edition.
  • ⚑ Chalco producer quotation, August 24: East China 23,800 (+120), South China 23,950 (+110), Southwest 23,830 (+110), Central China 23,740 (+120).
  • ⚑ Derivation: all four absolute spot calibers (+130 / +120 / +120 / +110) exceeded the board’s close-to-close +55, by between 55 and 75. This is a FOURTH consecutive session of the physical printing firmer than the board.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the August 24 open, Changjiang, Shanghai spot and Chalco East China all print 23,800 — a four-way cluster sitting 35 above the board’s close of 23,765 (⊘ different calibers; no basis is computed from the pair).
  • ⚑ Derivation: Nanhai minus Shanghai 450, UNCHANGED and still the run’s widest; Nanchu minus Shanghai 160; Chalco South minus East 150, NARROWING by 10 from 160.
  • ⊘ The South China premium therefore spans 150 to 450 depending on caliber. These are different specifications on different delivery bases; they are listed, NOT reconciled. The “+160” shorthand of prior editions must not be treated as the single South China number.
  • ⊘ SMM’s A00 absolute quote, its regional transaction premia and its shipment/purchasing sentiment indices are all NOT retrievable for August 21 and August 24. August 20 is carried: A00 23,600 (range 23,580–23,620); South +160 / East 0 / Central −60; East China shipment 3.2 / purchasing 3.16; Central China shipment 3.1 / purchasing 2.9.
  • ADC12 at 23,900/mt (SMM, August 20 weekly caliber, restated); overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190, Malaysia FOB Klang $3,090, Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070; African ingot $2,850/mt (all restated).
  • Alumina: China spot ~2,681.62/mt (SMM composite, restated); ex-China $363–364 FOB East Australia (restated). ⊘ Neither has a retrievable August 24 print.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The hardest fact in this section is the fourth consecutive session of agreement: four separately compiled absolute price tables, plus Chalco’s own producer quotation, all beat the board on the same day. That can no longer be explained by one publisher’s assessment method.
  • ⚑ But this edition must puncture its own shorthand. South China strength has been compressed into “+160”. With a fifth caliber in place, the three spreads read 150 (Chalco, and narrowing), 160 (Nanchu) and 450 (Nanhai). The direction is supported by all of them; the magnitude is supported by no two of them together.
  • ⚑ Chalco’s South-minus-East narrowing from 160 to 150 is the first narrowing of this run. Ten yuan in one session is not a conclusion, but it is the first empirical reading on the “extremes await verification” question (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⊘ The edition’s largest hole: SMM’s August 24 print is not retrievable

  • ⊘ SMM’s domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory print for August 24 is NOT retrievable. The level stands at 875,000 mt from August 20; sequence 1,006,000 (Jul 23) → 979,000 → 953,000 → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 933,000 → 917,000 → 898,000 → 886,000 → 875,000. Whether the draw reached a sixth consecutive reading CANNOT be answered this edition.
  • ⚑ And one circulating figure is explicitly rejected: “on August 25, primary aluminium inventory in major domestic consumer areas was 616,000 mt, up 20,000 mt from last Thursday and up 9,000 mt from last Monday.” That text comes from an SMM article dated AUGUST 26, 2025 — a year old. It is not used, and it is listed here so it is not mis-cited elsewhere.
  • SHFE weekly warehouse stock report, August 17–21: aluminium 403,797 mt, −18,300 mt w/w (restated; the next update is Friday).
  • LME stocks 246,925 mt, identical on August 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and 24 (⚑ extended from five prints to six this edition).
  • ⚑ NEW: SHFE registered cast aluminium alloy warrants stood at 20,208 mt on August 24, +241 mt on the day, with Guangdong +180 mt and Jiangsu +91 mt, and Chongqing and Sichuan slightly lower.
  • Billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500); weekly ingot warehouse outflows 123,200 mt (−1,000 w/w); cast alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500 w/w, a second consecutive build) (all restated).
  • ⊘ The inventory calibers use different windows and coverage; this brief does not sum them and does not reconcile them.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ What can be confirmed this edition is not the direction of primary inventory but the direction of the ALLOY calibers — and they run the other way. Cast aluminium alloy is building on BOTH measures (exchange warrants +241 mt, social inventory +2,500 mt) while every visible primary caliber is flat or falling. That divergence appears immediately after the ADC12-over-A00 premium widened from 80 to 300 (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The sixth identical LME print carries more information than the fifth did. Six consecutive sessions with neither an inflow nor an outflow, at the absolute low of the run, means deliverable metal is being neither drawn away nor replenished.
  • ⊘ But it must be conceded that the most important domestic number is missing this edition, and no other caliber substitutes for it. The SHFE report is weekly and differently defined; the LME is offshore. Until the social inventory print lands, “the destock continues” is an OPEN question, not a default.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The sanctions package landed: categories widened, imposition deferred

  • ⚑ Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the package at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on August 24, named “Operation Economic Outcast.”
  • ⚑ The categories of SECONDARY sanctions were extended to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and SHIPPING. Treasury designated nearly 60 entities, individuals and VESSELS involved in illicit nuclear and missile procurement, cyber operations and oil smuggling.
  • ⚑ But the operative measures were NOT imposed immediately. Bessent told reporters they would not be applied at once — “we are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior” — set no deadline and named no countries, while warning that if counterparties do not respond, “you will see the ramifications of their actions” “very quickly”, and that the administration does “not have infinite patience.” Trump is contacting world leaders to demand support for the “economic asphyxiation” of the Iranian regime.
  • ⚑ There is exactly one transmission path to aluminium and it is explicit: SHIPPING AND VESSELS. The bulk alumina and raw-material freight that Gulf refineries and smelters depend on falls inside the newly added category, and the IAI already has Gulf July output at −44% year on year (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The conclusion is therefore neither bullish nor bearish: THE EVENT RISK WAS EXTENDED, not resolved and not realised. An undated shipping-sanctions overhang cannot be priced to a calendar (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The prior edition’s timing derivation held exactly: the conference ran at 02:00 Beijing on August 25 — one hour after the SHFE night close and at the LME close — and neither exchange priced it. TODAY’S DAY SESSION IS CHINA’S FIRST OPPORTUNITY.

⚑ Rates: a fourth hawkish repricing, and this time the dollar followed

  • ⚑ Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor (August 24, 20:35 EDT): September 16 FOMC — hold 57.6% / hike 42.4%. Against the 61.0% / 39.0% carried in the prior edition, hike odds rose 3.4 percentage points, a FOURTH consecutive session of hawkish repricing.
  • ⚑ October 28: hold 41.7% / +25bp 46.6% / +50bp 11.7%. ⚑ A HIKE IS NOW THE MODAL OCTOBER OUTCOME for the first time, and hold has fallen from 47.0% to 41.7% (derivation).
  • ⚑ December 9: hold 24.8% / one 44.6% / two 25.8% / three 4.7%; implied at-least-one-hike rises from 71.2% to 75.2% (derivation).
  • ⚑ CALIBER CONVERGENCE: a CME-caliber report puts September hike odds at 42.10% on August 24, within 0.3 percentage points of this brief’s 42.4%. Three editions ago the two spanned 8.4 points. ⊘ A prediction-market caliber reads hold 71.2% / hike 27.6% and is now the lone outlier. Four figures listed, NOT reconciled.
  • ⚑ Dollar: TradingEconomics puts the index at 98.9882 on August 24 (+0.19%). That is a FOURTH consecutive close below 99 — by 0.0118.
  • ⚑ THIS BRIEF SET A FALSIFICATION TEST THREE EDITIONS AGO: a dollar that would not rise on hawkish repricing was to be called a real decoupling; a dollar that recovered was to be called a positioning artefact. ON AUGUST 24 THE DOLLAR ROSE ON HAWKISH REPRICING. The thesis has failed its own test, and this brief records that rather than restating it (interpretation).
  • ⊘ A second dollar caliber gives the same cut-off as open 98.753, high 98.801, low 98.676, close 98.693. Listed against 98.9882, NOT reconciled, and no change is computed across the two.
  • Brent: fell more than 2% to below $93 on August 24, with one caliber at $93.16 (−1.35%), against the 93.87 / 94.39 pair carried. That is a second consecutive session lower, and it happened on the day the package was published.

⚑ The clock: Jackson Hole this week, with one new piece of context

  • ⚑ The Jackson Hole symposium runs August 27–29 on the theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Chair Warsh, in office since May 22, 2026, delivers his first keynote as Chair on Friday morning, August 28.
  • ⚑ NEW CONTEXT: the July 29 FOMC held at 3.50%–3.75% with THREE regional bank presidents dissenting in favour of a hike — the first time three policymakers have broken ranks in the same direction since September 2016 (secondary source, corroborated across reports). Under Warsh the Fed no longer telegraphs its intentions ahead of meetings.
  • ⚑ SHFE still trades three full sessions — today, Wednesday and Thursday — plus Friday’s day session before that speech.
  • China policy restated: August LPRs unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, a fifteenth consecutive month.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ Every line in the macro column turned against aluminium this edition, with one exception on the supply side. Rising hike odds, a modal October hike, a higher December implied probability, a stronger dollar and weaker crude — four of five are suppressive, and the fifth (weaker crude) removes cost support and risk premium at the same time.
  • ⚑ One genuine methodological improvement: the two futures-implied Fed calibers have converged to within 0.3 percentage points. Probability-change inference has regained resolution — and the first reading it delivers is a fourth consecutive hawkish repricing.
  • ⚑ The correct way to read the sanctions package is structure, not content. The category expansion is real and the designations are real, but imposition is deferred with no date. That kind of risk does not decay and cannot be digested in advance; it arrives all at once, at a moment that has not been announced.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ NEW: July foil and plate/sheet/strip exports — a third and fourth series turning in the same month

  • ⚑ China’s July aluminium FOIL exports were 118,800 mt, −9.3% m/m from June’s 131,000 mt; January–July cumulative 802,000 mt. SMM still deems the 1.3 million mt full-year target achievable (SMM caliber, published August 24).
  • ⚑ China’s July aluminium PLATE, SHEET AND STRIP exports were 321,900 mt, −9.1% m/m from June’s 354,000 mt, and +24% y/y; January–July cumulative 2,111,300 mt (SMM caliber, published August 24).
  • ⚑ Derivation: together with prebaked anodes at −24.40% and unwrought-and-semis at −9.6%, FOUR separately compiled export series, covering different points of the product chain, turned down month on month in July.
  • ⚑ Derivation: foil plus plate/sheet/strip totalled 440,700 mt in July against 485,000 mt in June — a combined −44,300 mt, −9.13%.

Interpretation: the counterweight inside the same dataset must be shown

  • ⚑ Derivation: foil’s January–July monthly average is 114,571 mt, so July’s 118,800 mt sits 4,229 mt ABOVE it; plate/sheet/strip’s average is 301,614 mt, so July’s 321,900 mt sits 20,286 mt ABOVE it. BOTH new series still ran above their own year-to-date averages in July.
  • ⚑ The month-on-month falls are therefore measured against an elevated June base, not against trend (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Derivation: the 1.3 million mt foil target less 802,000 mt leaves 498,000 mt across August to December, or 99,600 mt a month — 84% of July’s 118,800 mt. THE TARGET REQUIRES DECELERATION, NOT ACCELERATION.
  • ⚑ The claim must be precise: “the run-rate has turned” is supported by evidence; “the run-rate is collapsing” is not. This brief asserts only the first.

⊘ CORRECTION: Yarwun is not a metal supply cut — and this is this brief’s own correction

  • ⚑ The prior edition converted Rio Tinto’s ~1.2 mtpa Yarwun alumina curtailment into roughly 622,000 mt/yr of aluminium equivalent at 1.93 t/t.
  • ⊘ Rio Tinto’s own release states there will be “no impact to customer requirements” and that its bauxite mines and ALUMINIUM SMELTERS will continue to operate at FULL CAPACITY.
  • ⚑ The 622,000 mt/yr figure is therefore A UNIT CONVERSION AND NOTHING MORE. It is not a forecast of lost metal, and reading it as one contradicts the producer’s own guidance. This brief WITHDRAWS the metal-level inference.
  • ⚑ What survives: the alumina reduction is real, dated to October 2026, and lands on the same $363–364 FOB East Australia basis this brief quotes. The cause is a tailings facility projected to reach capacity by 2031; the curtailment extends operations to 2035 and affects about 180 roles.

⚑ Restated: both ends of the supply arithmetic

  • China’s July primary output 3.9 mt, +3.8% y/y; ex-China −6.7% y/y; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m; IAI global July 6.16 mt, −1.7% y/y (all restated).
  • IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 602,000 mt, −47% y/y; EGA Al Taweelah has restarted 18% of 1,262 cells; July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3%; July ingot casting −15.1% y/y (all restated).
  • July prebaked anode exports 211,700 mt, +21.86% y/y and −24.40% m/m; Indonesia 95,400 mt (45%), Norway 26,900 mt (13%), Malaysia 22,700 mt (11%); average price $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m (restated).
  • China’s July alumina output 7.835 mt, +5.2% y/y; national operating rate 74.33%; total inventory 7.245 mt. Nanshan Aluminium International H1: alumina volumes +15%, net income ex-items $62.682m, −74.8% y/y, on a 39.5% lower average price (all restated).
  • ⊘ The operating-capacity caliber conflict is unchanged: secondary sources give ~45.19–45.40 mt of operating capacity at 97.7% utilisation, near the 45.43 mt compliant ceiling; this brief has carried ~46.29 mt as end-month capacity. Different definitions; listed only.

⚑ Demand: restated, with one new counter-reading on the alloy side

  • ⚑ NEW: SHFE registered cast aluminium alloy warrants 20,208 mt on August 24 (+241), Guangdong +180, Jiangsu +91 — the same direction as cast alloy ingot social inventory at 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second consecutive build). ⚑ Derivation: BOTH cast-alloy inventory calibers are building while every primary ingot caliber is flat or falling.
  • Restated: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9% y/y with NEV exports +147.8%; August 1–16 NEV retail ~399,000 units, −15% y/y, share 63.6% (⊘ secondary source); January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%; new-home prices −3.2% y/y; aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%; secondary aluminium 49.1%; July billet operating rate 58.3% with SMM’s August estimate at ~56.9%; July scrap imports ~119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m; July unwrought aluminium and semis exports 643,000 mt, +18.6% y/y and −9.6% m/m, January–July 4.04 mt, +16.7% y/y.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net result on fundamentals is that the bearish side got WIDER and the bullish side got NARROWER. The month-on-month export turn extends from two series to four — wider. Yarwun’s metal implication is withdrawn — narrower.
  • ⚑ But the correct weight on the export column comes from the same dataset: both new series still ran above their own year-to-date averages in July, and the foil full-year target needs only 84% of July’s rate. This is not the evidence structure of a demand collapse.
  • ⚑ The alloy-versus-primary divergence is the most concrete and most easily overlooked item this edition: warrants building, social inventory building, and the ADC12-over-A00 premium still at 300. A widening premium alongside a building inventory usually points to invoice and feedstock constraints on the supply side rather than a demand pull (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ August 24: all calibers beat the board, a fourth consecutive session

  • ⚑ Ranked by daily gain (August 24): Changjiang +130 > Shanghai spot +120 = Nanhai +120 = Chalco East China +120 = Chalco Central China +120 > Guangdong Nanchu +110 = Chalco South China +110 = Chalco Southwest +110 > AL2610 close-to-close +55.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the margin over the board runs from 55 to 75. Not one absolute spot caliber lagged the board.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the August 24 open (23,800), Changjiang (23,800), Shanghai spot (23,800) and Chalco East China (23,800) are identical, and sit 35 above the board’s close of 23,765.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Nanhai minus Shanghai 450 (unchanged); Nanchu minus Shanghai 160; Chalco South minus East 150, narrowed by 10 from 160.
  • ⊘ SMM’s regional transaction premia and sentiment indices are not retrievable for either August 21 or August 24; August 20 is carried — South +160, East 0, Central −60; East China shipment 3.2 / purchasing 3.16; Central China shipment 3.1 / purchasing 2.9.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ A fourth consecutive session of the physical beating the board, now supported by five price tables plus Chalco’s producer quotation. This is the most stable piece of directional evidence this brief currently holds.
  • ⚑ But the magnitude cannot be represented by one number. The three South China spreads read 150, 160 and 450 — a spread of nearly three times. Any citation of one of them must state its caliber.
  • ⚑ And East China remains in the waiting position. Chalco’s East China quotation at 23,800 sits 35 above the board’s close, which is a weak and indirect sign. SMM’s East China transaction premium moving from parity to an outright premium remains the single signal that would best confirm demand-side participation — and that series was not retrievable this edition (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ New: the August 21 night session opened at 23,800, above the entire dense band (23,792.75 / 23,794.00 / 23,795) — the band was gapped through, not tested from below.
  • ⚑ New: the August 24 high of 23,865 sits 70 above the broken August 14 low.
  • ⚑ New: MA5 falls from 23,794.00 to 23,740.00 and is RECLAIMED, with the close 25.00 above; four of six averages now reclaimed against three.
  • ⚑ New: the retracement of the August 3-to-12 advance improves from 89.1% to 80.6%, and the close sits 125 above the August 3 launch point.
  • ⚑ New (bounded derivation): for ANY dropped close between 22,500 and 24,500, the close holds MA60 by 146 to 180. MA60 is not in play today.
  • ⚑ New: all four absolute spot calibers (Changjiang +130, Shanghai +120, Nanhai +120, Nanchu +110) beat the board’s +55, a fourth consecutive session.
  • ⚑ New: the August 24 open and three spot calibers all print 23,800, a four-way cluster 35 above the board’s close.
  • ⚑ New: Nanhai minus Shanghai holds 450, the run’s widest, without giving back.
  • ⚑ New: LME stocks 246,925 mt unchanged for a SIXTH consecutive session at the absolute low of the run.
  • ⚑ New: the SHFE-LME ratio expands from 7.347 to 7.391, reversing last week’s compression — the bid returned onshore.
  • ⚑ New: secondary sanctions now cover SHIPPING, with nearly 60 entities, individuals and VESSELS designated — Gulf bulk freight risk is institutionalised with no removal date.
  • ⚑ New: alumina AO2610’s intraday high of 2,718 equals July’s national weighted-average full cost exactly; the cost side remains a live reference.
  • ⚑ New: July foil exports of 118,800 mt sit above their January–July average of 114,571 mt, and plate/sheet/strip at 321,900 mt above its 301,614 mt average — the m/m falls come off an elevated June base.
  • ⚑ New: the 1.3 mt full-year foil target requires only 99,600 mt a month from August to December, 84% of July’s rate — no acceleration is needed.
  • ⚑ New: July plate/sheet/strip exports are +24% year on year, with January–July cumulative 2,111,300 mt.
  • ⚑ Restated: SHFE weekly stocks 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w, accelerating from −13,642.
  • ⚑ Restated: IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 −47%; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; global −1.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ Restated: the ADC12-over-A00 premium holds at 300 (widened from 80); A00 over shredded scrap 1,150 with scrap refusing to follow.
  • ⚑ Restated: July scrap imports 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m, under a deepening reverse-invoicing squeeze.
  • ⚑ Restated: Rio Tinto’s ~1.2 mtpa Yarwun alumina curtailment begins October 2026 on the same FOB East Australia basis quoted here, roughly five weeks out.
  • ⚑ Restated: domestic operating capacity sits against the 45.43 mt compliant ceiling at 97.7% utilisation (⊘ secondary caliber) — supply rigidity is explicit.
  • Restated: July liquid-aluminium ratio 78.3% and ingot casting −15.1% y/y keep suppressing ingot formation.
  • Restated: Japanese three-port stocks 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010.
  • Restated: aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%, +0.1pp m/m; July unwrought aluminium alloy exports +135.1% y/y.
  • Restated: the prebaked anode export price of $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m, raises smelter carbon cost everywhere the anodes land.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ New: the August 24 close of 23,765 fell back 30 BELOW 23,795 — the band was cleared but not held.
  • ⚑ New: close-to-close was only +55 (+0.23%) against +145 (+0.61%) on the settlement caliber — the gain happened in the night session and was not kept.
  • ⚑ New: volume −18.3% to 143,183 lots and open interest −3,736 on a higher close — covering, not fresh length.
  • ⚑ New: complex volume −22.7% and complex open interest −5,495 — participation fell across the board.
  • ⚑ New: MA20 rises to 23,821.25 and remains 56.25 above the close; MA10 at 23,924.50 is 159.50 above; two of six averages are still unreclaimed.
  • ⚑ New: September hike odds rise from 39.0% to 42.4%, a fourth consecutive session of hawkish repricing.
  • ⚑ New: October hold falls from 47.0% to 41.7% and a hike (46.6%) becomes the MODAL October outcome for the first time.
  • ⚑ New: December implied at-least-one-hike rises from 71.2% to 75.2%, with hold below one quarter.
  • ⚑ New: the dollar index rose to 98.9882 (+0.19%) ON hawkish repricing — this brief’s decoupling thesis has failed its own falsification test.
  • ⚑ New: Brent fell more than 2% to below $93 (one caliber $93.16), a second consecutive session lower, softening cost support and risk premium together.
  • ⚑ New: the sanctions measures were not imposed, carry no deadline and name no countries — the event risk was deferred rather than digested, and cannot be priced to a calendar.
  • ⚑ New: July foil exports −9.3% m/m and plate/sheet/strip −9.1% m/m; with anodes at −24.40% and semis at −9.6%, four independent export series turned in the same month.
  • ⚑ New: foil plus plate/sheet/strip fell a combined 44,300 mt, −9.13% m/m.
  • ⚑ New: SHFE cast aluminium alloy warrants 20,208 mt (+241) with Guangdong +180, alongside a second consecutive +2,500 mt build in cast alloy ingot social inventory.
  • ⊘ New correction: Rio Tinto states the Yarwun cut has “no impact to customer requirements” and that its smelters run at full capacity — the prior edition’s 622,000 mt/yr aluminium equivalent is a unit conversion only, and that inference is withdrawn.
  • ⊘ New: SMM’s August 24 social inventory print is not retrievable, so a sixth consecutive draw CANNOT be confirmed and must not be assumed.
  • ⚑ Restated: China’s July primary output 3.9 mt, +3.8% y/y; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m; July anode exports +21.86% y/y with Indonesia at 45%.
  • ⚑ Restated: Nanshan International H1 volumes +15% against net income ex-items −74.8% on a 39.5% lower price — the alumina surplus has reached the income statement.
  • ⚑ Restated: China’s July alumina output 7.835 mt, +5.2% y/y; operating rate 74.33% with no decline; total inventory 7.245 mt.
  • ⚑ Restated: weekly ingot warehouse outflows 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w — the destock remains arrival-led, not consumption-led.
  • ⚑ Restated: Jackson Hole August 27–29 with Warsh’s first keynote as Chair on August 28, and a July 29 meeting that already carried three same-direction dissents, the first since September 2016.
  • ⚑ Restated: Southeast Asian ADC12 keeps weakening (Malaysia $3,090, Thailand ~$3,070) with African ingots at $2,850 undercutting; the secondary operating rate is stuck at 49.1%.
  • ⚑ Restated: Canada’s H1 aluminium exports to the US −25.03%; CBAM has covered aluminium since January 1, 2026 with the ~47.5% default-value increase standing.
  • ⊘ Restated: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% (all seven sub-sectors contracting), July passenger-vehicle retail −20.9%, January–July fixed-asset investment −6.7%, new-home prices −3.2%; and the August billet operating rate is estimated to fall back to ~56.9%.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The three-edition blind spot is closed and its contents rewrite the technical read: the August 21 night session opened at 23,800, gapping straight over the entire dense band and extending to 23,865, then handed it back to close 23,765 — thirty BELOW 23,795 — so the correct description of that band is now “cleared but not held”; MA5 has fallen to 23,740.00 and been reclaimed, leaving the price bracketed by MA5 and MA20 (23,821.25) for the first time with four of six averages recovered, while volume down 18.3% and open interest down 3,736 on a higher close point to covering rather than fresh length; the physical beat the board for a fourth consecutive session on every caliber (Changjiang +130, Shanghai +120, Nanhai +120, Nanchu +110 against +55), though the South China premium spans 150 to 450 depending on caliber and cannot be represented by a single number; the macro column turned against aluminium on every line, with September hike odds at 42.4%, a hike now the modal October outcome, December’s implied probability at 75.2%, and a dollar that ROSE to 98.9882 on that repricing — which falsifies this brief’s own decoupling thesis; the sanctions package added shipping and vessels to the secondary-sanctions categories but deferred imposition with no deadline, extending rather than removing the event risk; and SMM’s social inventory print was not retrievable, leaving a sixth consecutive draw an open question rather than a default. This brief makes no investment recommendation; the above separates confirmed data from its interpretation throughout.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 25) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ The 26.25-wide range between 23,795 and 23,821.25 is the only test that matters today. The ceiling is the recomputed MA20; the floor is the broken August 14 low that was gapped over and handed back yesterday. Inside that range sit the four-way 23,800 cluster (yesterday’s open, Changjiang, Shanghai spot, Chalco East China) and yesterday’s settlement at 23,785. A close above the range upgrades “cleared but not held” into an effective break; a close beneath MA5 (23,740.00) fills the night-session gap completely and takes the reclaimed averages back from four to three. Yesterday’s 23,865 high and 23,705 low are the day’s outer marks.
  • ⚑ Today’s SMM social inventory print — the largest gap in this edition, and one that must NOT be assumed to continue. August 20 stood at 875,000 mt and whether the draw reached a sixth consecutive reading is open. When the print lands, read it against weekly outflows (123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w): inventory falling while outflows do not rise still means an arrival-led destock whose price support is weaker than it looks. ⚑ And note that the “616,000 mt” figure in circulation is August 2025 data and must not be cited.
  • ⚑ Today’s day session is the first venue in China that can price the sanctions package — and what to watch is the shipping clause, not the headline. The conference ended at 02:00 Beijing and neither exchange participated. Three specific things: whether any aluminium- or alumina-related entity or bulk vessel appears on the designation list; whether the “not immediate” framing is tightened or withdrawn during the session; and whether open interest moves in a way unconnected to fundamentals. Because the measures carry no deadline, this risk will not be fully digested today.
  • ⚑ The physical: whether a fifth consecutive session of beating the board holds, and whether the three South China spreads begin to converge. Chalco’s South-minus-East narrowed from 160 to 150 yesterday, the first narrowing of this run. Watch whether Nanhai-minus-Shanghai follows down from 450 — if it does, all three spreads converge and yesterday’s physical strength looks closer to a local top; if Nanhai holds 450 while Chalco keeps narrowing, the difference is specification and delivery base rather than a change in tightness. Watch also whether SMM’s East China transaction premium resumes publication and moves from parity to an outright premium.
  • ⚑ Whether the dollar closes below 99 for a fifth session, and whether hike pricing stops rising. The dollar rose ON hawkish repricing yesterday to 98.9882, just 0.0118 below 99. Because the decoupling thesis has been falsified, what matters today is direction itself: the dollar above 99 with September odds still climbing puts macro suppression in a new gear; the dollar retreating while odds hold makes yesterday a one-session event. Note also that the CME caliber (42.10%) and this brief’s caliber (42.4%) have converged to 0.3 points, while the prediction-market caliber (27.6%) is the outlier.
  • ⚑ Alumina: whether AO2610 reaches 2,718 again, and whether it can close above full cost. Yesterday’s intraday high of 2,718 matched July’s national weighted-average full cost to the yuan, and the close of 2,690 sat 28 below it. Trading beneath full cost is the only stable support logic this section currently holds; a first close above 2,718 would convert that logic from “support” into “already realised”. ⊘ Note that this brief’s alumina moving averages cannot be recomputed this edition and the August 21 set must not be differenced against the new close.
  • ⚑ LME: whether cash holds MA5 ($3,207.00), and the direction of the first stock change after six identical prints. Cash at $3,215.50 is only $8.50 above MA5, and the contango has widened from −$17.00 to −$19.50. Six consecutive sessions with no stock movement at the absolute low of the run makes the DIRECTION of the first change more informative than its size. Watch also whether the SHFE-LME ratio (7.391) keeps expanding — continued expansion means the bid is staying onshore.
  • ⚑ The Jackson Hole countdown: SHFE still trades today, Wednesday and Thursday in full, plus Friday’s day session, before Warsh speaks Friday morning. The theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” rather than a direct policy-path subject, and the July 29 meeting already carried the first triple same-direction dissent since September 2016. With the two futures-implied calibers now converged, the macro variable with the most reach into aluminium this week remains the dollar itself, not the decimal point on a probability.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变者;标注「此为推算」者为本简报依据已列示数据自行计算所得,并非原始来源发布之数值。本期的 MA30、MA40、MA60(沪铝与伦铝)因被移出窗口的收盘价不可取得,以「有界推算」形式列示,其结论仅在所列区间内成立。涉及吨耗系数(碳阳极 0.40–0.45 吨/吨铝、氧化铝 1.93 吨/吨铝)的推算,其系数已在正文中明示,结果随系数取值而变。本期已就上一期关于力拓 Yarwun 减产之金属当量推论作出更正并予以撤回。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only figures, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” are unchanged because no new data has arrived since the prior edition; items marked “(derivation)” are calculated by this brief from the data listed and were not published as such by the original source. MA30, MA40 and MA60 on both exchanges are given this edition as BOUNDED derivations because the close dropping out of each window is not retrievable, and their conclusions hold only within the stated ranges. Derivations using consumption ratios (0.40–0.45 t carbon anode per t aluminium; 1.93 t alumina per t aluminium) state those ratios explicitly, and their results vary with the ratio chosen. This edition corrects and withdraws the prior edition’s metal-equivalent inference from Rio Tinto’s Yarwun curtailment.