Aug 26, 2026 · A bearish outside day closes SHFE at 23,755, but the night session prints 24,075. Social inventory draws for a sixth week to 860kt.

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

本期写于 8月26日(周三)上午,沪铝日盘开盘之际。
⚑ 本期最重要的方法变更:本简报已取得上海期货交易所公布的 AL2610、AO2610、AD2610 日行情收盘序列,覆盖 4月1日至 8月25日共 100 个交易日。因此本期三个品种的 MA5 至 MA60 全部为精确计算值,此前三期的「有界推算」全部作废;其中出现偏差者已在下文明确更正。
⚑ 下文全部 8月25日的沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金价格、结算价、成交量、持仓量,均为交易所公布的 8月25日交易日(8月24日夜盘 + 8月25日日盘合并)数据。
⚑ 8月25日夜盘(21:00 至 8月26日 01:00,归属 8月26日交易日)以实时行情口径列示,时点为北京时间 8月26日 09:01:33。⊘ 该组数据为未完成时段的实时报价,并非交易所结算数据,明日将被交易所文件重述。
⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分地区成交升贴水、出货/采购情绪指数,以及 8月25日的氧化铝现货评估、中铝华南/西南/华中挂牌、上期所日度仓单吨数,本期均未取得。

⚑ 沪铝 AL2610:一根看跌的「外包线」,盘中越过两条均线又全部交还

AL2610(主力):开 23,790,高 23,940,低 23,695,收 23,755,结算 23,800,前结算 23,785。收盘对前结算 −30(−0.13%);收盘对收盘 −10(−0.04%);结算对前结算 +15(+0.06%)。成交 175,448 手(前值 143,183,+32,265,+22.5%);持仓 268,447 手(前值 263,702,+4,745)。
⚑ 8月25日的最高价 23,940 元高于 8月24日的 23,865 元,最低价 23,695 元低于 8月24日的 23,705 元,而收盘 23,755 元低于前收 23,765 元——即一根完整包住前一日、且收在下方的「看跌外包线」(此为推算)。
⚑ 而最高价所到之处比「更高」本身更重要:23,940 元高出 MA20(23,846.50)93.50 元、高出 MA10(23,875.00)65.00 元,为本轮序列中价格首次同时越过这两条均线;而收盘分别退回其下 91.50 元与 120.00 元。
⚑ 这是连续第二个交易日「盘中越过上方压力、收盘将其交还」;且第二次所越过的位置更高、交还的幅度更大:8月24日交还 100 点,8月25日交还 185 点(此为推算)。
AL2609 收 23,765,结算 23,785,成交 71,040 手,持仓 95,991 手(−15,857);AL2611 收 23,755,结算 23,780,持仓 106,456 手(+10,489);AL2612 收 23,720;AL2701 收 23,660;AL2702 收 23,700;AL2703 收 23,685;AL2704 收 23,700;AL2705 收 23,705。
⚑ 九月合约的移仓已经开始:AL2609 持仓减少 15,857 手,AL2611 增加 10,489 手,AL2611 的持仓量现已超过 AL2609(此为推算)。品种合计成交 315,374 手(前值 228,302,+38.1%);合计持仓 609,517 手,交易所载持仓变动 +6,322 手。

⚑ 均线:本期全部精确重算,并更正上期的有界推算

⚑ MA5 = 23,700.00(精确)。收盘高于 55.00 元,连续第二个交易日站上。
⚑ MA10 = 23,875.00(精确)。收盘低于 120.00 元。
⚑ MA20 = 23,846.50(精确),较 8月24日的 23,819.50 上行 27.00 元(7月28日的 23,215 移出窗口)。收盘低于 91.50 元——而 8月24日的差距为 54.50 元。
⚑ MA30 = 23,631.50;MA40 = 23,459.38;MA60 = 23,623.75(全部精确)。收盘分别高出 123.50、295.62、131.25 元。
⊘ 更正:上期以有界推算给出 8月24日的 MA60 落在 23,585–23,619 之间。经精确重算,8月24日的 MA60 实为 23,636.33,高于该区间上沿 17.33 元。所得结论(MA60 被守住)成立,但幅度错误——而一个不包含真值的区间,是构造有误,而非仅仅粗糙。
⊘ 同处的两条较小更正:8月24日的 MA10 实为 23,925.50(上期载 23,924.50);MA20 实为 23,819.50(上期载 23,821.25)。
⚑ 六条均线仍收复四条(MA5、MA30、MA40、MA60),与上期数量相同;但与 MA20 的距离由 54.50 元扩大至 91.50 元。数量不变而距离扩大,正是「以数量作结论」最容易掩盖的情形,故在此明示。
⚑ 对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例由 81.4% 恶化至 82.9%(起点 8月3日收盘 23,645,高点 8月12日收盘 24,290,涨幅 645;此为精确重算,与上期基于转载收盘价的 89.1%/80.6% 口径不同)。收盘高于 8月3日起点 110 元。
⚑ 分位数本期恢复列示:20 日收盘分位 36.8%(收盘区间 23,420–24,290,盘中区间 23,110–24,490);60 日收盘分位 55.9%(收盘区间 22,445–24,930)(均为推算)。

解读:两个交易日,两种内部结构,同一个方向

⚑ 8月24日:价涨、量缩 18.3%、仓减 3,736 手——空头回补。8月25日:价跌、量增 22.5%、仓增 4,745 手——冲高失败后的新增空头(此为解读)。两种签名相反,而其共同含义相同:掌握收盘的是卖方而非买方。
⚑ 密集带的正确表述再次改写。 8月14日低点 23,795 元,在最近两个交易日均被盘中越过,亦均未被守住。它现在既不是「未被触及的天花板」,也不是「已被突破的平台」,而是一条被反复越过、反复交还的分界线。
⚑ 今日唯一有意义的两条线是 MA20(23,846.50)与 MA10(23,875.00)。 二者在日盘中已两次拒绝价格,而在夜盘中被一次性越过。

⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610:六条均线全部失守,且整条曲线呈单调 contango

AO2610:开 2,690,高 2,710,低 2,671,收 2,676,结算 2,691,前结算 2,702。收盘对前结算 −26(−0.96%);收盘对收盘 −14(−0.52%)。成交 215,937 手(+6,595);持仓 249,987 手(−21,287)。
⚑ 六条均线全部精确重算,而收盘低于其中每一条:MA5 2,679.00(−3.00)、MA10 2,686.00(−10.00)、MA20 2,680.80(−4.80)、MA30 2,695.17(−19.17)、MA40 2,705.53(−29.53)、MA60 2,760.48(−84.48)。上期所载 8月21日的一组数值就此作废,不再作为参照。
⚑ 全月份曲线呈单调上行:AO2609 2,667 < 2610 2,676 < 2611 2,696 < 2612 2,713 < 2701 2,726 < 2702 2,745 < 2703 2,762 < 2704 2,777 < 2705 2,797 < 2706 2,817 < 2707 2,843 < 2708 2,861。十二个月份无一逆序(此为推算)。
⚑ 8月24日曾与 7 月完全成本 2,718 元分文不差的盘中高点,8月25日未被重新触及——当日最高 2,710 元,距其 8 元。
⚑ 持仓减少 21,287 手而收盘下跌:是多头离场,而非空头进场(此为解读)。
⚑ 夜盘(实时,8月26日 09:01):开 2,677,高 2,677,低 2,655,最新 2,656(较 8月25日收盘 −20,较结算 −35);持仓 238,119 手(−11,868)。氧化铝在铝价上行的同一时段内下跌。
⚑ SMM 8月25日标题口径:「氧化铝国内弱势下行海外持续走强」,内外价差显著扩大。中国以外口径转载 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳。

⚑ 铸造铝合金 AD2610:盘面恢复公布,并补全 8月24日

⚑ 8月24日(补全):收 22,995,结算 23,020。8月21日收 23,060——此前各期所载数值经交易所文件确认为精确值。
AD2610(8月25日):开 22,960,高 23,295,低 22,960,收 23,080,结算 23,145,前结算 23,020。收盘对前结算 +125(+0.54%);收盘对收盘 +85(+0.37%)。成交 8,016 手;持仓 16,992 手(−1,020)。
⚑ 六条均线精确重算:MA5 23,004.00(+76.00)、MA10 23,151.00(−71.00)、MA20 23,275.25(−195.25)、MA30 23,173.50(−93.50)、MA40 23,074.50(+5.50)、MA60 23,109.17(−29.17)。六条收复两条。
⚑ 推算:AD2610 对 AL2610 的贴水由 770 元(22,995 对 23,765)收窄至 675 元(23,080 对 23,755)。铸造铝合金单日跑赢原铝 95 元。
⚑ 夜盘(实时):开 23,150,高 23,385,低 23,065,最新 23,200(较 8月25日收盘 +120);持仓 15,476 手(−1,516)。

⚑ 伦铝:现货跌破全部可算均线,而六次冻结的库存以「减少」告破

Westmetall 官方口径,8月25日:现货结算 3,188.00 美元(−27.50,−0.86%);三个月 3,206.50 美元(−28.50,−0.88%);contango 由 −19.50 美元收窄至 −18.50 美元;库存 246,825 吨。
⚑ 库存较 8月17–24日连续六次相同的 246,925 吨减少 100 吨——为 8月14日以来的首次变动,且方向为减少,并创本轮新低。
⚑ 伦铝现货均线(精确重算,43 个交易日):MA5 3,200.80(现货低于 12.80)、MA10 3,232.95(低于 44.95)、MA20 3,248.22(低于 60.22)、MA30 3,223.57(低于 35.57)、MA40 3,197.95(低于 9.95)。⚑ MA5 与 MA40 均于 8月25日失守——8月24日尚分别高出 8.50 与 19.61 美元。现货现已低于本简报可计算的每一条均线。⊘ MA60 无法计算,仅取得 43 个交易日。
⚑ 现货 3,188.00 美元仅高于本轮低点 3,182.00 美元(8月20日)6.00 美元,低于 8月11日高点 3,373.00 美元 185.00 美元(此为推算)。
⚑ 沪伦比值由 7.3901 扩大至 7.4514(23,755 ÷ 3,188.00),为连续第二次扩大,亦为本简报所载最阔(序列 7.3474 → 7.3901 → 7.4514,此为推算)。
⊘ 口径符号冲突:TradingEconomics 载 8月25日为 3,243.50 美元(+25.25,+0.78%,月度 +2.29%,年度 +22.94%),该序列跟踪远月,与 Westmetall 现货结算的 −0.86% 符号相反。两者并列,不调和;但二者可在时序上并存——现货结算于伦敦午间敲定,远月收盘在数小时之后,「结算跌、远月涨」正是午后回升的形态(此为解读)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 8月25日现货:五套绝对口径全部跑输盘面,四连胜终结

⚑ 世铝网口径,8月25日:有色宝长江 23,750 元(−50,区间 23,730–23,770);上海现货 23,730 元(−70,区间 23,710–23,750);南海有色 24,190 元(−60,区间 24,140–24,240);广东南储 23,900 元(−60,区间 23,870–23,930);⚑ 上海华通 23,830 元(−20,区间 23,820–23,840)——该口径在 8月24日表中未显示,本期恢复,且为五者中跌幅最小者。
⚑ 中铝报价,8月25日:华东 23,740 元(−60)。⊘ 华南、西南、华中 8月25日挂牌未取得,转载 8月24日:华南 23,950、西南 23,830、华中 23,740。
⚑ 推算:五套绝对现货口径的跌幅(−70 / −60 / −60 / −50 / −20)全部大于盘面收盘对收盘的 −10,跑输幅度为 10 至 60 元。连续四个交易日「现货强于盘面」的纪录就此终结,且以全体反向的方式终结。
⚑ 推算:上海现货减盘面收盘,由 8月24日的 +35 元转为 8月25日的 −25 元,单日摆动 60 元;中铝华东由高于盘面 35 元转为低于 15 元(⊘ 与盘面口径不同;上期已按同一基准计算过 +35,故本期按同一基准计算 −25)。
⚑ 推算:南海减上海 460 元,由 450 元扩大,创本轮最阔;序列 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450 → 460。南储减上海 170 元(由 160 扩大);华通减上海 100 元;长江减上海 20 元(由 0 扩大)。
ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨(SMM,8月20日周度口径,转载);海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元/吨,马来西亚 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元,泰国 FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元;非洲铝锭 2,850 美元/吨(全部转载)。
氧化铝:中国现货约 2,681.62 元/吨(SMM 综合,转载);中国以外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。⊘ 8月25日印记未取得。
⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分地区成交升贴水仍未取得,继续载入 8月20日:A00 23,600 元(区间 23,580–23,620);华南 +160 / 华东 0 / 华中 −60。

解读:连胜以「全体反向」的方式终结,但价差没有收敛

⚑ 本简报此前持有的最稳定一条方向性证据,已经失效。 连续四个交易日,五套独立编制的绝对价格表全部跑赢盘面;第五个交易日,同样五套口径全部跑输,且无一例外。以「全体反向」终结,比逐步走弱更干净,也更可信。
⚑ 但昨日提出的收敛问题,答案是「否」。 中铝华南减华东在 8月24日曾由 160 元收窄至 150 元;而 8月25日南海减上海不但没有跟随,反而扩大至 460 元、创本轮最阔,南储减上海亦由 160 扩至 170。华南在绝对价格更便宜的同时,相对更强了。这不是矛盾,而是关于边际吨在哪里稀缺的陈述(此为解读)。
⚑ 基差的六十点摆动值得单独记录。 上海现货由高于盘面 35 元转为低于 25 元。在盘面几乎未动(−10)的一天里,现货独自完成了这一摆动,说明动因在现货侧而非盘面侧(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 上期最大的空缺已被补齐,且答案偏多

⚑ SMM 国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存,8月24日(周一)86.0 万吨,较 8月20日(周四)的 87.5 万吨减少 1.5 万吨——连续第六次去库(SMM 口径,经二次独立检索互证转载)。
⚑ 序列:100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5(8月20日)→ 86.0(8月24日)。
⚑ 推算:近五次周度降幅为 −1.6 → −1.9 → −1.2 → −1.1 → −1.5 万吨,本次为四周以来最大;自 7月23日的 100.6 万吨累计去库 14.6 万吨,且 86.0 万吨为本轮最低位。
⚑ 上期明确拒绝将「连续去库」默认为延续,并将该问题列为未决。本期该问题以数据而非默认得到确认。
⚑ 伦铝库存 246,825 吨,较 8月17–24日连续六次相同的 246,925 吨减少 100 吨——为 8月14日以来首次变动,方向为减少。上期提出「首次变动的方向比幅度更具信息量」;100 吨几乎已是幅度的下限,因此方向即是全部信息。
上期所 8月17日–8月21日库存周报:铝 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨(转载;下一次更新为本周五 8月28日)。
⊘ 上期所 8月25日日度仓单吨数未取得。铸造铝合金注册仓单转载 8月24日的 20,208 吨(+241,广东 +180、江苏 +91)。
铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨);铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨);铸造铝合金锭社会库存 28,100 吨(环比 +2,500 吨,连续第二周累积)(全部转载)。
⊘ 各套库存口径的统计窗口与覆盖范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

⚑ 本期库存栏是三栏之中唯一在两条口径上同向、且同向偏多的一栏。 国内社会库存第六次下降且降幅加速;伦铝在连续六次零变动之后,首次变动亦为减少。两地库存同时以减少方向给出信号,是 8月中旬以来的首次。
⊘ 但必须保留上期已给出的限定:去库仍应与周度出库量合看。 出库量 12.32 万吨环比 −0.1 万吨(转载),库存降而出库不增,仍属到货驱动型去库,其价格支撑弱于表面。 8月28日(周五)的上期所周报与新一期出库量,是检验这一限定的下一个时点。
⚑ 而合金端的方向仍与原生端相反:铸造铝合金锭社会库存连续第二周 +2,500 吨,仓单 8月24日 +241 吨。 分化未变。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 利率:连续四次鹰派之后的首次鸽派重定价,且成因有据可查

⚑ 美国谘商会 8 月消费者信心指数录得 89.4,低于市场预期约 90.3,7 月值由 90.2 下修;为 1 月以来最低。分项:预期未来就业机会减少者占 26.1%(前值 25.3%);预期收入增加者占 17.6%(前值 19.5%);预期收入减少者占 13.8%(前值 12.6%)。
⚑ Investing.com 联储利率监测器(8月25日 20:35 美东):9月16日 FOMC 维持 63.0% / 加息 37.0%。较上期的 57.6% / 42.4%,加息概率下降 5.4 个百分点——为连续四个交易日鹰派重定价之后的首次鸽派重定价。
⚑ 10月28日:维持 48.5% / 加息一次 43.0% / 加息两次 8.5%。⚑ 「维持」重新成为 10 月的众数结果——上期所载「加息首次成为 10 月众数」在一个交易日内被逆转(此为推算)。
⚑ 12月9日:维持 29.4% / 一次 45.2% / 两次 22.1% / 三次 3.3%;隐含至少加息一次概率由 75.2% 降至 70.6%,维持概率回到四分之一以上(此为推算)。
⚑ 美元:TradingEconomics 载 8月25日美元指数为 98.9586(−0.04%),为连续第五个交易日收在 99 下方。⊘ 同一来源的实时报价另载 98.9158(+0.02%),时点已属下一交易日,并列不调和。
⚑ 推算并解读:8月24日,3.4 个百分点的鹰派重定价对应美元 +0.19%;8月25日,5.4 个百分点的鸽派重定价对应美元 −0.04%。美元对两个方向的反应均被压缩,且不对称。本简报以此描述取代昨日已被证伪的「脱钩」假说——「不对称且钝化」比「脱钩」或「耦合」都更接近观测。
黄金结算 4,648.40 美元(+1.00%),白银 68.75 美元(−0.16%),美债收益率回落;有色与贵金属对同一组数据作出同向反应(二手来源)。

⚑ 地缘:同一天之内既有缓和亦有升级,而原油连续第三个交易日下跌

⚑ 巴基斯坦陆军参谋长结束对德黑兰的一日访问,据报携有基于既有谅解备忘录的制裁豁免提案。
⚑ 与此同时,伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊表示将「化解这场经济战争」,并威胁若周边国家协助美国削弱伊朗经济,将阻断霍尔木兹海峡的石油外运。
⊘ 布伦特 8月25日口径分歧达 3.17 美元:一套载 89.50 美元(−3%),一套载 88.58 美元,一套载 87.12 美元,一套载 86.33 美元(−6.33%)。四套并列,不调和。四者在方向上一致,且一致认为这是连续三个交易日下跌中幅度最大的一次。
⚑ 上期所载贝森特「经济弃儿行动」的结构性判断不变:范畴已扩大至航运与船舶,但实质措施未立即实施、无最后期限、未指名国家。事件风险仍为「被延长」而非「被解除」(转载并保留)。

时钟

⚑ 核心 PCE 物价指数于杰克逊霍尔之前公布;杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 8月27–29日,主题为「金融创新:对支付体系与政策的影响」;沃什主席首次以主席身份发表主旨演讲为 8月28日(周五)上午。
⚑ 在演讲之前,沪铝仍将交易今日与周四两个完整交易日,以及周五的日盘。
⚑ 转载:7月29日 FOMC 维持 3.50%–3.75% 不变,三位地区联储主席投票支持加息,为 2016 年 9 月以来首次三位委员同向反对(二手来源,多源印证)。
中国政策转载:8月 LPR 维持 3.00% 与 3.50%,为连续第十五个月不变。

解读:宏观栏五个交易日以来首次转为有利,而美元拒绝配合

⚑ 本期宏观栏在利率一线上明确转为对铝有利,且成因是可指名、可核对的单一数据点,而非仓位现象。 谘商会信心指数为 1 月以来最低,而三个会议节点的加息概率同步回落。
⚑ 但传导止步于美元。 5.4 个百分点的鸽派重定价只换来 0.04% 的美元跌幅,且仍在 99 附近。在美元不动的条件下,利率预期的改善对以美元计价的金属只是「移除了一层压制」,而不是「增加了一层推力」(此为解读)。
⚑ 原油的第三个下跌交易日同时移除成本支撑与风险溢价,方向对铝为中性偏空;而缓和与升级在同一天出现,意味着地缘尾部并未变薄,只是被重新定价了时点(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 氧化铝:内外分化成为本期基本面唯一的新增结构

⚑ SMM 8月25日口径:「氧化铝国内弱势下行海外持续走强」,内外价差显著扩大。国内 AO2610 收盘低于全部六条均线,而中国以外转载 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳。
⚑ 推算:以 8月25日收盘 2,676 元与 AL2610 收盘 23,755 元计,氧化铝对铝价比值为 11.27%。
⚑ 全月份曲线单调 contango(2,667 至 2,861),即近月定价当前过剩、远月定价成本(此为解读)。
中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;全国开工率 74.33%;总库存 724.5 万吨(全部转载)。
⚑ 转载:力拓 Yarwun 约 120 万吨/年氧化铝减产自 2026 年 10 月起(氧化铝端减量,其电解铝厂满负荷运行,「对客户需求无影响」);阿卢诺特因天然气供应受限运行于 50%;卡塔尔 Qatalum 停产。
南山铝业国际上半年:氧化铝销量 +15%,扣非净利 6,268.2 万美元、同比 −74.8%,均价 −39.5%(转载)。

⚑ 转载:供应算式的两端

中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%;中国以外同比 −6.7%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;国际铝业协会全球 7 月产量 616 万吨,同比 −1.7%(全部转载)。
国际铝业协会海湾地区 7 月产量 29.3 万吨,同比 −44%;EGA 上半年产量 60.2 万吨,同比 −47%;EGA 阿联酋 Al Taweelah 已重启 1,262 台电解槽中的 18%;7 月铝水比例 78.3%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%(全部转载)。
7 月预焙阳极出口 211,700 吨,同比 +21.86%、环比 −24.40%;印尼 95,400 吨(45%)、挪威 26,900 吨(13%)、马来西亚 22,700 吨(11%);均价 1,031.80 美元/吨,环比 +12.34%(转载)。
⊘ 运行产能口径冲突未变:二手来源载运行产能约 4,519–4,540 万吨、利用率 97.7%、逼近 4,543 万吨合规天花板;本简报此前载月末产能约 4,629 万吨。定义不同,仅列示。

需求端:全部转载

7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩);7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%,新能源车出口 +147.8%;8月1–16日新能源乘用车零售约 39.9 万辆、同比 −15%、份额 63.6%(⊘ 二手来源);1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%;新房价格同比 −3.2%;铝加工开工率 60.0%;再生铝开工率 49.1%;7 月铝棒开工率 58.3%,SMM 对 8 月的预估约 56.9%;7 月废铝进口约 119,600 吨,环比 −10.1%。
出口四条序列(转载):7 月未锻轧铝及铝材 64.3 万吨,同比 +18.6%、环比 −9.6%,1–7 月累计 404 万吨、同比 +16.7%;铝箔 118,800 吨,环比 −9.3%,1–7 月 802,000 吨;铝板带 321,900 吨,环比 −9.1%、同比 +24%,1–7 月 2,111,300 吨;预焙阳极环比 −24.40%。⚑ 保留上期的限定:铝箔与铝板带 7 月读数仍高于其自身 1–7 月月均(114,571 与 301,614 吨),且铝箔全年 130 万吨目标只需 8–12 月每月 99,600 吨,为 7 月速率的 84%。
日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低;加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%;CBAM 自 2026年1月1日起覆盖铝,约 +47.5% 的缺省值上调仍然有效(全部转载)。

解读

⚑ 本期基本面无新增的硬数据,唯一的新增是结构性的:氧化铝的内外分化。 国内跌破全部均线、全曲线 contango;海外持续走强。这一组合意味着成本支撑正在从「全球性」退化为「区域性」——对中国电解铝而言是成本下移(利多利润、利空价格),对中国以外则相反(此为解读)。
⚑ 而供应侧的三处减量(Yarwun、阿卢诺特、Qatalum)全部落在氧化铝或海外电解铝一端,与国内运行产能的刚性并不冲突。 上期已撤回的 62.2 万吨/年金属当量推论,本期不予恢复。
⚑ 需求端本期无新数据,故不作新的判断;此前的限定(出口速率已转向、但尚未崩塌)继续成立。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 8月25日:五套口径全部跑输盘面,连胜终结于第四个交易日

⚑ 跌幅排序(8月25日):上海现货 −70 > 南海 −60 = 广东南储 −60 = 中铝华东 −60 > 长江 −50 > 上海华通 −20 > AL2610 收盘对收盘 −10。
⚑ 推算:跑输盘面的幅度为 10 至 60 元;五套绝对现货口径无一跑赢盘面,与此前四个交易日完全相反。
⚑ 推算:上海现货 23,730 元低于盘面收盘 23,755 元 25 元;中铝华东 23,740 元低于 15 元。基差由 8月24日的 +35 元摆动至 −25 元。
⚑ 推算:南海减上海 460 元(创本轮最阔);南储减上海 170 元;华通减上海 100 元;长江减上海 20 元。价差在绝对价格下跌的同时扩大。
⊘ SMM 分地区成交升贴水与情绪指数 8月21日、24日、25日均未取得;延续载入 8月20日:华南 +160、华东 0、华中 −60;华东出货 3.2 / 采购 3.16,华中出货 3.1 / 采购 2.9。

解读

⚑ 现货侧本期给出的是一条负面读数,而且是干净的负面读数:不是幅度收窄,而是方向反转,且五套口径无一例外。
⚑ 但同一天的价差扩大,不能与之混为一谈。 绝对价格下跌来自全国性的定价,价差扩大来自区域性的稀缺。两者可以同时为真,且本期确实同时为真(此为解读)。
⚑ 华东仍处观察位置,且位置转差。 中铝华东挂牌已由高于盘面 35 元转为低于 15 元。SMM 华东成交升贴水由平水转为实质升水,仍是本简报所等待的、最能确认需求侧参与的单一信号,而该数据已连续三期未取得(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

⚑ 新增:SMM 8月24日社会库存 86.0 万吨,较 8月20日减少 1.5 万吨——连续第六次去库,以数据确认而非默认。
⚑ 新增:1.5 万吨为近四周最大周度降幅;自 7月23日累计去库 14.6 万吨;86.0 万吨为本轮最低位。
⚑ 新增:伦铝库存 246,825 吨,打破连续六次相同印记,首次变动方向为减少(−100 吨),并创本轮新低。
⚑ 新增:9 月加息概率由 42.4% 降至 37.0%,为连续四次鹰派重定价之后的首次鸽派重定价。
⚑ 新增:10 月「维持」概率由 41.7% 回升至 48.5%,重新成为众数结果,逆转上期结论。
⚑ 新增:12 月隐含至少加息一次概率由 75.2% 降至 70.6%,维持概率回到四分之一以上。
⚑ 新增:谘商会 8 月消费者信心 89.4,为 1 月以来最低,低于预期约 90.3——利率转向的成因可指名、可核对。
⚑ 新增:黄金结算 4,648.40 美元(+1.00%),美债收益率回落,金属复合体对同一组数据同向反应。
⚑ 新增:美元 98.9586(−0.04%),连续第五个交易日收在 99 下方。
⚑ 新增:8月25日夜盘最高 24,075 元,为 8月17日以来最高印记,高出 MA10 200.00 元、高出 MA20 228.50 元。
⚑ 新增:该夜盘高点将 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤由 82.9% 一举压缩至 33.3%(此为推算)。
⚑ 新增:夜盘最新价 23,870 元重新回到 MA10 与 MA20 之间,而非停留在其下方。
⚑ 新增:南海减上海扩大至 460 元,创本轮最阔;南储减上海由 160 扩至 170——华南相对强度在绝对价格下跌中仍在增强。
⚑ 新增:AD2610 对 AL2610 贴水由 770 元收窄至 675 元,铸造铝合金单日跑赢原铝 95 元;夜盘另涨 120 元。
⚑ 新增:沪伦比值由 7.3901 扩至 7.4514,连续第二次扩大并创本轮最阔,买盘留在内盘。
⚑ 新增(精确重算):MA30 23,631.50、MA40 23,459.38、MA60 23,623.75 全部被守住,幅度分别为 123.50、295.62、131.25 元——不再是区间,而是确值。
⚑ 新增:MA5 23,700.00 连续第二个交易日被守住,幅度 55.00 元。
⚑ 新增:上海华通口径恢复公布,五套现货口径重新齐备。
⚑ 转载:上期所周度库存 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨,较上一周的 −13,642 吨加速。
⚑ 转载:国际铝业协会海湾 7 月产量 29.3 万吨、同比 −44%;EGA 上半年 −47%;中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%;全球同比 −1.7%。
⚑ 转载:阿卢诺特运行于 50%、Qatalum 停产、Yarwun 自 10 月起减产约 120 万吨/年氧化铝,海外原料端减量集中。
⚑ 转载:次级制裁范畴已扩大至航运与船舶,海湾散货运输风险被制度化且无解除日期。
⚑ 转载:国内电解铝运行产能贴近 4,543 万吨合规天花板、利用率 97.7%(⊘ 二手口径),供给刚性明确。
转载:7 月铝水比例 78.3%、铸锭量同比 −15.1%,持续压制铝锭形成量。
转载:日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
转载:铝箔 7 月 118,800 吨仍高于其 1–7 月月均 114,571 吨;铝板带 321,900 吨高于其月均 301,614 吨;铝箔全年目标只需 7 月速率的 84%。
转载:预焙阳极出口均价 1,031.80 美元/吨、环比 +12.34%,碳阳极成本上升推高各地电解成本。

利空因素

⚑ 新增:8月25日为看跌外包线——最高 23,940 高于前一日,最低 23,695 低于前一日,而收盘 23,755 低于前收。
⚑ 新增:最高价越过 MA20 93.50 元、越过 MA10 65.00 元,收盘全部交还;为连续第二个交易日「越过又交还」,且交还幅度由 100 点扩大至 185 点。
⚑ 新增:成交 175,448 手环比 +22.5%、持仓 +4,745 手,而收盘下跌——冲高失败后的新增空头,与前一日的空头回补方向相反而含义相同。
⚑ 新增:MA20 升至 23,846.50 元,与收盘的差距由 54.50 元扩大至 91.50 元;MA10 23,875.00 元高于收盘 120.00 元。
⚑ 新增:对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤由 81.4% 恶化至 82.9%。
⚑ 新增:20 日收盘分位仅 36.8%,处于本月区间的偏低位置。
⚑ 新增:五套绝对现货口径全部跑输盘面,连续四个交易日的现货强势就此终结。
⚑ 新增:上海现货减盘面基差由 +35 元摆动至 −25 元,单日 60 元;中铝华东由高于盘面 35 元转为低于 15 元。
⚑ 新增:伦铝现货 3,188.00 美元(−27.50,−0.86%),跌破 MA5(3,200.80)与 MA40(3,197.95),现已低于本简报可计算的全部五条均线。
⚑ 新增:伦铝现货仅高于本轮低点 3,182.00 美元 6.00 美元,低于 8月11日高点 185.00 美元。
⚑ 新增:伦铝 contango 仍在 −18.50 美元,近月贴水结构未变。
⚑ 新增:氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,676 元,低于全部六条均线;全月份曲线单调 contango,近月定价过剩。
⚑ 新增:氧化铝持仓减少 21,287 手而价格下跌,为多头离场;夜盘再跌至 2,656 元,与铝价方向相反。
⚑ 新增:氧化铝 8月24日曾触及的 7 月完全成本 2,718 元,8月25日未被重新触及(最高 2,710)。
⚑ 新增:SMM 载「氧化铝国内弱势下行、海外持续走强」,成本支撑由全球性退化为区域性。
⚑ 新增:美元在 5.4 个百分点的鸽派重定价下仅下跌 0.04%,传导在美元一环被压缩。
⚑ 新增:布伦特连续第三个交易日下跌且为三者中最大,成本与风险溢价同时回落(⊘ 四套口径分歧 3.17 美元)。
⚑ 新增:巴基斯坦携制裁豁免提案访德黑兰,地缘缓和路径重新出现。
⚑ 新增:夜盘持仓减少 5,018 手而价格上涨——为空头回补而非新增多头,与 8月24日随后被交还的形态签名相同。
⊘ 新增:夜盘数据为未完成时段的实时报价,并非结算价,尚需经受今日日盘的检验。
⚑ 新增:AD2610 收盘低于六条均线中的四条(MA10、MA20、MA30、MA60)。
⚑ 转载:铸造铝合金锭社会库存连续第二周 +2,500 吨,仓单 +241 吨——合金端与原生端持续分化。
⚑ 转载:铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨、环比 −0.1 万吨——去库仍由到货减少驱动,而非消费驱动。
⚑ 转载:中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨、同比 +3.8%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;7 月预焙阳极出口同比 +21.86%,印尼占 45%。
⊘ 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩)、7 月乘用车零售 −20.9%、1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%、新房价格 −3.2%;8 月铝棒开工率预估回落至约 56.9%;再生铝开工率停滞于 49.1%。

八 · 一句话观点

8月25日日盘与夜盘给出了相反的两句话:日盘是一根看跌外包线——最高 23,940 元盘中越过 MA20 与 MA10、最低 23,695 元低于前一日,收盘 23,755 元将全部涨幅交还,为连续第二个交易日「越过又交还」,且伴随成交 +22.5%、持仓 +4,745 手的新增卖压;现货一侧五套绝对口径全部跑输盘面,连续四个交易日的现货强势以「全体反向」终结,基差单日摆动 60 元至 −25 元;而夜盘低开 23,730 元后一路运行至 24,075 元,为 8月17日以来最高印记,越过 MA10 200 元、越过 MA20 228.50 元,但持仓减少 5,018 手,且为未完成时段的实时报价。与此同时,两条库存口径首次同向偏多——国内社会库存 86.0 万吨、连续第六次去库且降幅为四周最大,伦铝六次冻结的印记以减少 100 吨告破;宏观在连续四次鹰派之后首次转鸽,9 月加息概率降至 37.0%、10 月「维持」重回众数,成因为谘商会信心 89.4 的七个月低点,但美元仅下跌 0.04%,传导止于美元一环;而伦铝现货 3,188.00 美元已低于全部可算均线,氧化铝低于全部六条均线且全曲线 contango。本期并更正本简报自身:全部均线已改由交易所 100 个交易日的收盘序列精确计算,上期的 MA60 有界推算区间 23,585–23,619 偏低,真实值为 23,636.33。本简报不作任何投资建议,以上为已确认数据与其解读的分栏陈述。

九 · 今日(8月26日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

⚑ 夜盘所取得的 24,075 元,能否在日盘中被守住——这是今日唯一的首要判据。 夜盘最高 24,075 元高出 MA10(23,875.00)200.00 元、高出 MA20(23,846.50)228.50 元,而 09:01 的最新价 23,870 元已回落至 MA10 之下 5.00 元、MA20 之上 23.50 元。日盘收在 MA10 之上,则连续两个交易日的「越过又交还」被终结,且六条均线收复五条;收在 MA20 之下,则夜盘涨幅被完整交还,日盘的看跌外包线成为主导形态。夜盘持仓减少 5,018 手,意味着这段涨幅由回补而非新增多头驱动(此为解读),因此其守住与否比其高度更重要。
⚑ 现货能否在第二个交易日继续跑输盘面,以及基差是否停留在贴水。 8月25日五套绝对口径全部跑输盘面(−70 至 −20 对 −10),上海现货减盘面由 +35 摆动至 −25。若今日现货跟涨幅度仍小于盘面,则连续四日的现货支撑正式转为拖累;若现货重新跑赢,则 8月25日属单日现象。 同时关注中铝华东挂牌能否重回盘面之上,以及 SMM 华东成交升贴水能否恢复发布——该数据已连续三期未取得。
⚑ 南海减上海的 460 元与南储减上海的 170 元,是否继续扩大。 昨日的关键发现是价差在绝对价格下跌中扩大,而非收敛。若今日两条价差同步再扩,则华南的相对稀缺属结构性;若在盘面上行中反而收窄,则前期扩大更多来自华东的疲弱而非华南的紧张(此为解读)。
⚑ 库存:本周五(8月28日)上期所周报与新一期铝锭周度出库量,是检验「到货驱动型去库」限定的下一个时点。 国内社会库存已连续第六次下降至 86.0 万吨,伦铝亦以 −100 吨打破六次冻结。若出库量随之回升,则去库的性质由到货驱动转为消费驱动,其价格支撑显著增强;若出库量继续持平或下降,则上期的限定仍然成立。 伦铝库存在首次变动之后的第二次变动方向,同样值得跟踪。
⚑ 伦铝现货能否重新站上 MA5(3,200.80)与 MA40(3,197.95)这两条昨日刚刚失守的均线。 现货 3,188.00 美元已低于本简报可计算的全部五条均线,且仅高于本轮低点 3,182.00 美元 6.00 美元。跌破 3,182.00 即为本轮新低,其信号意义大于点数;而重新站上 3,200.80 则昨日的失守属单日现象。 同时注意 Westmetall 现货结算与 TradingEconomics 远月口径在 8月25日符号相反,今日应优先以现货结算为准并观察二者是否重新同向。
⚑ 美元能否连续第六个交易日收在 99 下方,以及鸽派重定价是否延续。 昨日 5.4 个百分点的鸽派重定价只换来 0.04% 的美元跌幅。观察点因此不是概率本身,而是传导:若概率继续回落而美元同步走弱,则宏观由「移除压制」升级为「提供推力」;若概率回落而美元反弹站上 99,则昨日的利率改善对铝无实质意义。核心 PCE 与沃什周五演讲之前,这一组合是本周最具穿透力的宏观变量。
⚑ 氧化铝能否止住六线全破的下行,以及内外分化是否继续扩大。 AO2610 收 2,676 元低于全部六条均线,夜盘再跌至 2,656 元,全月份曲线呈单调 contango(2,667 至 2,861)。若国内继续走弱而海外维持 363–364 美元 FOB 东澳,则中国电解铝的成本线继续下移——利多冶炼利润、利空铝价下方的成本支撑(此为解读)。同时关注 8月24日曾触及的 7 月完全成本 2,718 元是否被重新测试。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

This edition is written on the morning of Wednesday, August 26, at the open of the SHFE day session.
⚑ THE METHODOLOGICAL CHANGE THAT MATTERS THIS EDITION: this brief has retrieved the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s published daily close series for AL2610, AO2610 and AD2610 covering 100 trading days, April 1 to August 25. MA5 THROUGH MA60 ARE THEREFORE COMPUTED EXACTLY ON ALL THREE BOARDS. The bounded derivations of the last three editions are superseded, and where they were wrong they are corrected below.
⚑ Every August 25 SHFE, alumina and cast-alloy price, settlement, volume and open-interest figure below is the August 25 trading day (August 24 night plus August 25 day, combined) as published by the exchange.
⚑ The August 25 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 to 01:00 on August 26, belonging to the August 26 trading day) is given as a LIVE quote timestamped 09:01:33 Beijing on August 26. ⊘ It is a live price on an unfinished session, not an exchange settlement, and will be restated from the exchange file tomorrow.
⊘ NOT retrievable this edition: SMM’s A00 absolute quote, SMM’s regional transaction premia and SMM’s sentiment indices; SMM’s August 25 alumina spot assessments; Chalco’s South China, Southwest and Central China quotations for August 25; and SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 25.

⚑ SHFE AL2610: a bearish outside day that cleared two averages intraday and handed both back

AL2610 (most-traded): open 23,790, high 23,940, low 23,695, close 23,755, settlement 23,800, prior settlement 23,785. Close versus prior settlement −30 (−0.13%); close-to-close −10 (−0.04%); settlement versus prior settlement +15 (+0.06%). Volume 175,448 lots (from 143,183, +32,265, +22.5%); open interest 268,447 (from 263,702, +4,745).
⚑ August 25’s high of 23,940 is ABOVE August 24’s 23,865 and its low of 23,695 is BELOW August 24’s 23,705, while the close of 23,755 is BELOW the prior close of 23,765 — a session that engulfed the previous one in both directions and finished on the wrong side (derivation).
⚑ And WHERE the high went matters more than that it was higher: 23,940 sits 93.50 above MA20 (23,846.50) and 65.00 above MA10 (23,875.00), the first time in this sequence the price traded above BOTH. The close came back 91.50 and 120.00 below them.
⚑ That is the SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION of clearing a ceiling intraday and losing it by the bell — and on the second attempt the ceiling cleared was higher and the give-back was larger: 100 points on August 24, 185 on August 25 (derivation).
AL2609 closed 23,765, settlement 23,785, volume 71,040, OI 95,991 (−15,857). AL2611 closed 23,755, settlement 23,780, OI 106,456 (+10,489). AL2612 23,720; AL2701 23,660; AL2702 23,700; AL2703 23,685; AL2704 23,700; AL2705 23,705.
⚑ The roll out of September is under way: AL2609’s open interest fell 15,857 while AL2611’s rose 10,489, and AL2611’s open interest now EXCEEDS AL2609’s (derivation). Complex volume 315,374 lots (from 228,302, +38.1%); complex open interest 609,517, exchange-reported change +6,322.

⚑ Moving averages: computed exactly this edition — and the prior bound is corrected

⚑ MA5 = 23,700.00 (exact). The close is 55.00 ABOVE it, held for a second consecutive session.
⚑ MA10 = 23,875.00 (exact). The close is 120.00 below.
⚑ MA20 = 23,846.50 (exact), UP 27.00 from August 24’s 23,819.50 as July 28’s 23,215 drops out. The close is 91.50 below — against 54.50 on August 24.
⚑ MA30 = 23,631.50; MA40 = 23,459.38; MA60 = 23,623.75 (all exact). The close is above them by 123.50, 295.62 and 131.25 respectively.
⊘ CORRECTION: the prior edition gave MA60 for August 24 as a bounded range of 23,585–23,619, held by 146 to 180. THE EXACT VALUE IS 23,636.33, above the top of that range by 17.33, and it was held by 128.67. The conclusion survives; the magnitude was wrong — and a bound that excludes the true value was constructed wrong, not merely coarsely.
⊘ Two smaller restatements in the same place: MA10 for August 24 was 23,925.50, not 23,924.50; MA20 was 23,819.50, not 23,821.25.
⚑ Four of six averages remain reclaimed (MA5, MA30, MA40, MA60), unchanged in count — but the distance to MA20 widened from 54.50 to 91.50. A count that conceals a widening distance is exactly what a count conceals, so the distance is stated explicitly.
⚑ The retracement of the August 3-to-12 advance WORSENS from 81.4% to 82.9% (launch 23,645 on August 3, peak 24,290 on August 12, advance 645 — exact, and on a different basis from the 89.1%/80.6% pair the prior edition computed from restated closes). The close sits 110 above the launch point.
⚑ Percentiles are computable again and they are middling: 20-session close percentile 36.8% (close range 23,420–24,290; intraday range 23,110–24,490); 60-session 55.9% (close range 22,445–24,930) (derivations).

Interpretation: two sessions, opposite internal signatures, one direction

⚑ August 24: price up, volume −18.3%, open interest −3,736 — covering. August 25: price down, volume +22.5%, open interest +4,745 — fresh selling into a failed rally (interpretation). Two opposite signatures with the same meaning: the close is being controlled by sellers, not buyers.
⚑ The description of the dense band has to change again. The broken August 14 low of 23,795 was cleared intraday on BOTH of the last two sessions and held on neither. It is now neither an untested ceiling nor a broken shelf but a line that keeps being crossed and keeps being given back.
⚑ The only two levels that matter today are MA20 (23,846.50) and MA10 (23,875.00). They have rejected the price twice in daylight and been cleared once in the dark.

⚑ Alumina AO2610: below all six averages, and the whole curve is in contango

AO2610: open 2,690, high 2,710, low 2,671, close 2,676, settlement 2,691, prior settlement 2,702. Close versus prior settlement −26 (−0.96%); close-to-close −14 (−0.52%). Volume 215,937 (+6,595); open interest 249,987 (−21,287).
⚑ All six averages are exact this edition and the close is BELOW EVERY ONE: MA5 2,679.00 (−3.00), MA10 2,686.00 (−10.00), MA20 2,680.80 (−4.80), MA30 2,695.17 (−19.17), MA40 2,705.53 (−29.53), MA60 2,760.48 (−84.48). The August 21 set carried in the prior edition is superseded, not differenced.
⚑ The entire curve rises monotonically: AO2609 2,667 < 2610 2,676 < 2611 2,696 < 2612 2,713 < 2701 2,726 < 2702 2,745 < 2703 2,762 < 2704 2,777 < 2705 2,797 < 2706 2,817 < 2707 2,843 < 2708 2,861. Twelve months, no inversion (derivation).
⚑ The August 24 high of 2,718 that matched July full cost to the yuan was NOT revisited: August 25’s high stopped 8 short at 2,710.
⚑ Open interest fell 21,287 on a lower close — length leaving, not shorts arriving (interpretation).
⚑ Night session (live, 09:01 August 26): open 2,677, high 2,677, low 2,655, last 2,656 (−20 on the August 25 close, −35 on the settlement); OI 238,119 (−11,868). Alumina FELL in the same hours aluminium rose.
⚑ SMM’s August 25 headline caliber: “domestic alumina weakening, overseas continuing to strengthen,” with the internal-external spread widening significantly. Ex-China restated at $363–364 FOB East Australia.

⚑ Cast aluminium alloy AD2610: the board is published again, and it back-fills August 24

⚑ August 24 (back-filled): close 22,995, settlement 23,020. August 21’s close of 23,060, carried by prior editions, is confirmed EXACT against the exchange file.
AD2610 (August 25): open 22,960, high 23,295, low 22,960, close 23,080, settlement 23,145, prior settlement 23,020. Close versus prior settlement +125 (+0.54%); close-to-close +85 (+0.37%). Volume 8,016; open interest 16,992 (−1,020).
⚑ All six averages exact: MA5 23,004.00 (+76.00), MA10 23,151.00 (−71.00), MA20 23,275.25 (−195.25), MA30 23,173.50 (−93.50), MA40 23,074.50 (+5.50), MA60 23,109.17 (−29.17) — two of six held.
⚑ Derivation: the AD2610-minus-AL2610 discount NARROWS from 770 (22,995 against 23,765) to 675 (23,080 against 23,755). Cast alloy beat primary on the board by 95 in one session.
⚑ Night session (live): open 23,150, high 23,385, low 23,065, last 23,200 (+120 on the August 25 close); OI 15,476 (−1,516).

⚑ LME: cash below every computable average, and the frozen stock print breaks — as a draw

Westmetall official caliber, August 25: cash settlement $3,188.00 (−$27.50, −0.86%); three-month $3,206.50 (−$28.50, −0.88%); contango narrows from −$19.50 to −$18.50; stocks 246,825 mt.
⚑ Stocks fell 100 mt from the 246,925 mt printed identically on August 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and 24 — the FIRST change since August 14, the direction is DOWN, and it is a new low for this run.
⚑ LME cash moving averages (exact, 43 sessions): MA5 $3,200.80 (cash below by $12.80), MA10 $3,232.95 (−$44.95), MA20 $3,248.22 (−$60.22), MA30 $3,223.57 (−$35.57), MA40 $3,197.95 (−$9.95). ⚑ MA5 AND MA40 WERE BOTH LOST ON AUGUST 25 — they were held by $8.50 and $19.61 on August 24. Cash is now below every average this brief can compute. ⊘ MA60 is not computable; only 43 sessions were retrieved.
⚑ Cash at $3,188.00 sits only $6.00 above the run’s low of $3,182.00 (August 20) and $185.00 below the August 11 high of $3,373.00 (derivations).
⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio expands from 7.3901 to 7.4514 (23,755 ÷ 3,188.00) — a second consecutive expansion and the widest this brief has carried (sequence 7.3474 → 7.3901 → 7.4514, derivation).
⊘ A caliber conflict IN SIGN: TradingEconomics reads $3,243.50 for August 25 (+$25.25, +0.78%; monthly +2.29%, yearly +22.94%) on its forward-tracking series, against Westmetall’s cash settlement at −0.86%. Listed, NOT reconciled as levels — but they coexist as a sequence: the cash settlement is struck around midday London and the forward closes hours later, so settlement down and forward up on the same date is what an afternoon recovery looks like (interpretation).

⚑ August 25 spot: all five absolute calibers LAGGED the board, and the four-session streak ends

⚑ CNAL caliber, August 25: Changjiang 23,750 (−50, range 23,730–23,770); Shanghai spot 23,730 (−70, range 23,710–23,750); Nanhai 24,190 (−60, range 24,140–24,240); Guangdong Nanchu 23,900 (−60, range 23,870–23,930); ⚑ Shanghai Huatong 23,830 (−20, range 23,820–23,840) — the caliber RETURNS after being absent from the August 24 table, and it is the mildest fall of the five.
⚑ Chalco producer quotation, August 25: East China 23,740 (−60). ⊘ South China, Southwest and Central China quotations for August 25 were not retrieved; August 24 restated (South 23,950, Southwest 23,830, Central 23,740).
⚑ Derivation: the five absolute spot calibers fell by −70 / −60 / −60 / −50 / −20, ALL MORE than the board’s close-to-close of −10, by 10 to 60 points. FOUR CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS OF THE PHYSICAL BEATING THE BOARD END, and they end with every caliber reversed.
⚑ Derivation: Shanghai spot minus the board’s close swings from +35 (August 24) to −25 (August 25), a 60-point move into a discount; Chalco East China goes from 35 above the close to 15 below (⊘ different calibers from the board; the prior edition computed the +35, so the −25 is stated on the same basis).
⚑ Derived spreads: Nanhai−Shanghai 460, WIDENING from 450 and the widest of this run (sequence 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450 → 460); Nanchu−Shanghai 170 (from 160); Huatong−Shanghai 100; Changjiang−Shanghai 20 (from 0).
ADC12 at 23,900/mt (SMM, August 20 weekly caliber, restated); overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190/mt, Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090, Thailand FOB Laem Chabang about $3,070; African ingot $2,850/mt (all restated).
Alumina: China spot about 2,681.62/mt (SMM composite, restated); ex-China $363–364 FOB East Australia (restated). ⊘ Neither August 25 print was retrievable.
⊘ SMM’s A00 absolute quote and regional transaction premia remain not retrievable; restated at August 20 — A00 23,600 (range 23,580–23,620); South +160 / East 0 / Central −60.

Interpretation: the streak ends by full reversal, but the spreads did not converge

⚑ The most stable directional evidence this brief has held is now void. For four sessions every one of five independently compiled absolute price tables beat the board. On the fifth, every one of them lagged it, without exception. Ending by full reversal is cleaner and more credible than ending by fade.
⚑ But yesterday’s convergence question is answered NO. Chalco’s South-minus-East narrowed from 160 to 150 on August 24; on August 25 Nanhai−Shanghai did not follow it down but WIDENED to 460, the widest of the run, and Nanchu−Shanghai widened from 160 to 170. South China got relatively firmer while getting absolutely cheaper. That is not a contradiction — it is a statement about where the marginal tonne is scarce (interpretation).
⚑ The sixty-point basis swing deserves its own line. Shanghai spot went from 35 above the board to 25 below it. On a day the board barely moved (−10), the physical produced the entire swing on its own, which locates the cause on the spot side rather than the futures side (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ The largest hole in the prior edition is filled, and the answer is bullish

⚑ SMM domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory, August 24 (Monday): 860,000 mt, DOWN 15,000 mt from August 20 (Thursday)’s 875,000 mt — THE SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DRAW (SMM caliber, relayed via secondary retrieval and corroborated by two independent searches).
⚑ Sequence: 1,006,000 (July 23) → 979,000 → 953,000 → 958,000 (August 3) → 933,000 → 917,000 → 898,000 → 886,000 → 875,000 (August 20) → 860,000 (August 24).
⚑ Derivation: the last five weekly steps are −16,000 → −19,000 → −12,000 → −11,000 → −15,000. This is the LARGEST STEP IN FOUR WEEKS; the cumulative draw from July 23’s 1,006,000 mt is 146,000 mt; and 860,000 mt is the LOWEST LEVEL OF THIS RUN.
⚑ The prior edition explicitly refused to default the destock to continuation and listed the question as open. It is now confirmed by data rather than assumed.
⚑ LME stocks 246,825 mt, down 100 mt from the 246,925 mt printed identically on August 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and 24 — the first change since August 14, and the direction is DOWN. The prior edition said the DIRECTION of the first change would carry more information than its size; 100 tonnes is close to the floor of size, so the direction is essentially all of it.
SHFE weekly warehouse stocks, August 17–21: aluminium 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w (restated; next update Friday August 28).
⊘ SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 25 were not retrievable. Cast aluminium alloy registered warrants restated at 20,208 mt (August 24, +241; Guangdong +180, Jiangsu +91).
Billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500); weekly ingot warehouse outflows 123,200 mt (−1,000 w/w); cast alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500 w/w, a second consecutive build) (all restated).
⊘ The inventory calibers have different statistical windows and coverage; this brief does not sum them and does not reconcile them.

Interpretation

⚑ Inventory is the only one of this edition’s three columns in which two independent calibers point the same way, and the way they point is bullish. Domestic social inventory drew for a sixth session and the step accelerated; LME broke a six-session freeze and broke it downward. This is the first time since mid-August that both venues have signalled in the same direction on the same day.
⊘ But the qualification the prior edition set must be kept: the destock still has to be read against outflows. Weekly outflows at 123,200 mt were down 1,000 w/w (restated). Inventory falling while outflows do not rise is still an arrival-led destock, whose price support is weaker than it looks. Friday August 28 brings both the SHFE weekly report and a new outflow print — the next test of that qualification.
⚑ And the alloy side still points the other way: cast alloy ingot social inventory built 2,500 mt for a second week, and warrants rose 241 mt on August 24. The divergence is unchanged.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ Rates: the first dovish repricing after four hawkish ones — and this time the cause is dated and named

⚑ The Conference Board’s August US consumer confidence index printed 89.4 against roughly 90.3 expected, from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July — the LOWEST SINCE JANUARY. Components: 26.1% anticipate fewer jobs (from 25.3%); 17.6% expect income to rise (from 19.5%); 13.8% expect income to fall (from 12.6%).
⚑ Investing.com Fed rate monitor (August 25, 20:35 EDT): September 16 FOMC hold 63.0% / +25bp 37.0%. Against the prior edition’s 57.6% / 42.4%, hike odds fell 5.4 percentage points — THE FIRST DOVISH REPRICING AFTER FOUR CONSECUTIVE HAWKISH SESSIONS.
⚑ October 28: hold 48.5% / one hike 43.0% / two 8.5%. ⚑ A HOLD IS THE MODAL OCTOBER OUTCOME AGAIN — the prior edition’s headline that a hike had become modal is reversed in a single session (derivation).
⚑ December 9: hold 29.4% / one 45.2% / two 22.1% / three 3.3%; implied at-least-one-hike falls from 75.2% to 70.6%, and hold recovers above one-quarter (derivation).
⚑ The dollar: TradingEconomics reads 98.9586 for August 25 (−0.04%) — a FIFTH consecutive close below 99. ⊘ The same source’s live quote reads 98.9158 (+0.02%) but already belongs to the following session; listed, not reconciled.
⚑ Derivation and interpretation: on August 24 a 3.4-point hawkish repricing produced +0.19% on the dollar; on August 25 a 5.4-point dovish repricing produced −0.04%. THE RESPONSE IS COMPRESSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND IT IS ASYMMETRIC. This brief offers that description in place of the decoupling thesis it retired yesterday — “asymmetric and muted” is closer to the observation than either “decoupled” or “coupled.”
Gold settled $4,648.40 (+1.00%), silver $68.75 (−0.16%), and Treasury yields eased on the same data; the metals complex read it the same way (secondary).

⚑ Geopolitics: de-escalation and escalation on the same day, and crude falls a third session

⚑ Pakistan’s army chief concluded a one-day visit to Tehran, reportedly carrying a sanctions-relief proposal under an existing memorandum of understanding.
⚑ In the same news cycle Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei vowed to “neutralize the economic war” with the United States and threatened to halt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz if neighbouring states help Washington weaken Tehran’s economy.
⊘ Brent calibers for August 25 span $3.17: one reads $89.50 (−3%), one $88.58, one $87.12, one $86.33 (−6.33%). All four listed, NOT reconciled. All four agree on direction and that this was the largest of three consecutive falls.
⚑ The structural reading of Bessent’s “Operation Economic Outcast” is unchanged and restated: the categories now extend to shipping and vessels, but the operative measures were not imposed immediately, carry no deadline and name no country. The event risk remains EXTENDED rather than removed.

The clock

⚑ The core PCE price index lands before Jackson Hole. The symposium runs August 27–29 on the theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” and Chair Warsh delivers his first keynote as Chair on the morning of Friday August 28.
⚑ Before that speech, SHFE trades today and Thursday in full, plus Friday’s day session.
⚑ Restated: the July 29 FOMC held at 3.50%–3.75% with three regional presidents dissenting in favour of a hike — the first triple same-direction dissent since September 2016 (secondary, corroborated).
China policy restated: August LPR held at 3.00% and 3.50%, a fifteenth consecutive month unchanged.

Interpretation: the macro column turns helpful for the first time in five sessions, and the dollar declines to cooperate

⚑ On the rate line this column is now clearly favourable to aluminium, and the cause is a single nameable, checkable data point rather than a positioning artefact. Confidence at a seven-month low, and hike odds falling at all three meeting nodes together.
⚑ But the transmission stops at the dollar. A 5.4-point dovish repricing bought a 0.04% decline, still within a whisker of 99. With the dollar immobile, an improvement in rate expectations REMOVES a layer of suppression from a dollar-priced metal; it does not ADD a layer of thrust (interpretation).
⚑ Crude’s third consecutive decline removes cost support and risk premium at the same time — directionally neutral-to-negative for aluminium; and de-escalation and escalation arriving on the same day means the geopolitical tail has not thinned, only had its timing repriced (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Alumina: the internal-external split is this edition’s only new structural fact

⚑ SMM’s August 25 caliber: “domestic alumina weakening, overseas continuing to strengthen,” with the internal-external spread widening significantly. Domestically AO2610 closed below all six of its own averages; ex-China is restated at $363–364 FOB East Australia.
⚑ Derivation: at the August 25 closes, alumina at 2,676 is 11.27% of aluminium at 23,755.
⚑ The full-curve monotonic contango (2,667 to 2,861) prices near-term surplus and forward cost (interpretation).
China July alumina output 7.835 mt, +5.2% y/y; national operating rate 74.33%; total inventory 7.245 mt (all restated).
⚑ Restated: Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cuts about 1.2 mtpa of alumina from October 2026 (alumina only — its smelters continue at full capacity with “no impact to customer requirements”); Alunorte runs at 50% on constrained gas; Qatar’s Qatalum is shut.
Nanshan Aluminium International H1: alumina volumes +15%, net income ex-items $62.682m (−74.8% y/y) on a 39.5% lower average price (restated).

⚑ Restated: both ends of the supply arithmetic

China July primary aluminium output 3.90 mt, +3.8% y/y; ex-China −6.7% y/y; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m; IAI global July output 6.16 mt, −1.7% y/y (all restated).
IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 602,000 mt, −47% y/y; EGA’s Al Taweelah has restarted 18% of 1,262 pots; July hot-metal ratio 78.3%; July ingot casting −15.1% y/y (all restated).
July prebaked anode exports 211,700 mt, +21.86% y/y and −24.40% m/m; Indonesia 95,400 mt (45%), Norway 26,900 mt (13%), Malaysia 22,700 mt (11%); average price $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m (restated).
⊘ The operating-capacity caliber conflict is unchanged: secondary sources carry 45.19–45.40 mt of running capacity at 97.7% utilisation, against a compliance ceiling of 45.43 mt; this brief previously carried month-end capacity of about 46.29 mt. Different definitions, listed only.

Demand: all restated

July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% (all seven sub-sectors contracting); July passenger vehicle retail −20.9% y/y with NEV exports +147.8%; August 1–16 NEV passenger retail about 399,000 units, −15% y/y, 63.6% share (⊘ secondary); Jan–Jul fixed asset investment −6.7%; new home prices −3.2% y/y; aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%; secondary aluminium operating rate 49.1%; July billet operating rate 58.3% with SMM’s August estimate about 56.9%; July scrap imports about 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m.
Four export series (restated): July unwrought aluminium and semis 643,000 mt, +18.6% y/y and −9.6% m/m, Jan–Jul 4.04 mt (+16.7%); foil 118,800 mt, −9.3% m/m, Jan–Jul 802,000 mt; plate/sheet and strip 321,900 mt, −9.1% m/m and +24% y/y, Jan–Jul 2,111,300 mt; prebaked anodes −24.40% m/m. ⚑ The prior edition’s qualification stands: July foil and plate/strip both still ran ABOVE their own Jan–Jul monthly averages (114,571 and 301,614 mt), and the 1.3 mt full-year foil target needs only 99,600 mt a month across August to December — 84% of July’s rate.
Japan’s three main ports 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010; Canada’s H1 aluminium exports to the US −25.03%; CBAM has covered aluminium since January 1, 2026, with the roughly +47.5% default-value uplift still in force (all restated).

Interpretation

⚑ There is no new hard demand or supply number this edition. The single new thing is structural: the alumina split. Domestically the board is below every average with the whole curve in contango; overseas it keeps strengthening. That combination means cost support is degrading from GLOBAL to REGIONAL — for Chinese smelters it is a lower cost line, which is bullish for margin and bearish for the floor under the metal price (interpretation).
⚑ And all three named supply subtractions — Yarwun, Alunorte, Qatalum — sit on the alumina or the ex-China metal side, which does not conflict with the rigidity of Chinese running capacity. The 622,000 mt/yr metal-equivalent inference withdrawn in the prior edition is NOT reinstated.
⚑ With no new demand data, no new demand judgement is offered; the standing qualification — the export run-rate has turned but is not collapsing — continues to hold.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ August 25: all five calibers lagged the board, and the streak ends at four sessions

⚑ Ranked by fall (August 25): Shanghai spot −70 > Nanhai −60 = Guangdong Nanchu −60 = Chalco East China −60 > Changjiang −50 > Shanghai Huatong −20 > AL2610 close-to-close −10.
⚑ Derivation: the underperformance against the board runs from 10 to 60 points, and not one of the five absolute spot calibers beat it — the exact inverse of the four preceding sessions.
⚑ Derivation: Shanghai spot at 23,730 is 25 BELOW the board’s close of 23,755; Chalco East China at 23,740 is 15 below. The basis swings from +35 on August 24 to −25 on August 25.
⚑ Derivation: Nanhai−Shanghai 460 (the run’s widest); Nanchu−Shanghai 170; Huatong−Shanghai 100; Changjiang−Shanghai 20. The spreads widened while the absolute prices fell.
⊘ SMM’s regional transaction premia and sentiment indices were not retrievable for August 21, 24 or 25; restated at August 20 — South +160, East 0, Central −60; East China shipment 3.2 / purchasing 3.16; Central China shipment 3.1 / purchasing 2.9.

Interpretation

⚑ The spot side produced a negative reading this edition, and a clean one: not a narrowing margin of outperformance but a full reversal of direction, with no caliber excepted.
⚑ But the widening spreads on the same day must not be folded into it. The absolute fall is a national repricing; the widening spreads are a regional scarcity. Both can be true at once, and on August 25 both were (interpretation).
⚑ East China remains the place to watch, and its position got worse. Chalco’s East China quotation went from 35 above the board to 15 below. SMM’s East China transaction premium moving from parity to an outright premium remains the single signal this brief is waiting on to confirm demand-side participation — and that series has now been unretrievable for three consecutive editions (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

⚑ NEW: SMM social inventory at 860,000 mt on August 24, −15,000 w/w — a SIXTH consecutive draw, confirmed by data rather than defaulted to.
⚑ NEW: the 15,000 mt step is the largest in four weeks; the cumulative draw from July 23 is 146,000 mt; and 860,000 mt is the lowest level of this run.
⚑ NEW: LME stocks 246,825 mt break a six-session identical print, and the first change is a DRAW (−100 mt) to a new low for the run.
⚑ NEW: September hike odds fall 42.4% → 37.0%, the first dovish repricing after four hawkish sessions.
⚑ NEW: October’s hold recovers 41.7% → 48.5% and is the MODAL outcome again, reversing the prior edition’s conclusion.
⚑ NEW: December’s implied at-least-one-hike falls 75.2% → 70.6% and hold recovers above one-quarter.
⚑ NEW: Conference Board August confidence at 89.4, the lowest since January and below a roughly 90.3 consensus — the rate turn has a nameable, checkable cause.
⚑ NEW: gold settled $4,648.40 (+1.00%) and Treasury yields eased; the metals complex read the same data the same way.
⚑ NEW: the dollar at 98.9586 (−0.04%), a fifth consecutive close below 99.
⚑ NEW: the August 25 night session printed a high of 24,075 — the highest since August 17 — clearing MA10 by 200.00 and MA20 by 228.50.
⚑ NEW: that night high compresses the retracement of the August 3–12 advance from 82.9% to 33.3% (derivation).
⚑ NEW: the night session’s last price of 23,870 sits back BETWEEN MA10 and MA20 rather than beneath both.
⚑ NEW: Nanhai−Shanghai widens to 460, the run’s widest, and Nanchu−Shanghai to 170 — South China’s relative tightness increased even as absolute prices fell.
⚑ NEW: the AD2610-minus-AL2610 discount narrows from 770 to 675; cast alloy beat primary by 95 on the board and added another 120 overnight.
⚑ NEW: the SHFE-LME ratio expands to 7.4514, a second consecutive expansion and the widest carried — the bid is staying onshore.
⚑ NEW (exact): MA30 23,631.50, MA40 23,459.38 and MA60 23,623.75 are all held, by 123.50, 295.62 and 131.25 — as exact values, no longer as ranges.
⚑ NEW: MA5 at 23,700.00 held for a second consecutive session, by 55.00.
⚑ NEW: the Shanghai Huatong caliber resumes publication, restoring the fifth cnal price table.
⚑ Restated: SHFE weekly warehouse stocks 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w, accelerating from the prior week’s −13,642 mt.
⚑ Restated: IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 −47%; ex-China July output −6.7% y/y; global −1.7% y/y.
⚑ Restated: Alunorte at 50%, Qatalum shut, and Yarwun cutting about 1.2 mtpa of alumina from October — the overseas raw-material subtractions are concentrated.
⚑ Restated: the secondary-sanction categories now extend to shipping and vessels, institutionalising Gulf bulk-freight risk with no expiry date.
⚑ Restated: Chinese running capacity sits against the 45.43 mt compliance ceiling at 97.7% utilisation (⊘ secondary caliber) — supply rigidity is explicit.
Restated: July hot-metal ratio 78.3% and ingot casting −15.1% y/y continue to suppress ingot formation.
Restated: Japan’s three main ports at 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010.
Restated: July foil at 118,800 mt still exceeds its Jan–Jul average of 114,571 mt, and plate/strip at 321,900 mt exceeds its 301,614 mt; the foil target needs only 84% of July’s rate.
Restated: prebaked anode export prices at $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m, raising carbon-anode cost everywhere.

Bearish factors

⚑ NEW: August 25 was a bearish outside day — a higher high at 23,940, a lower low at 23,695, and a close of 23,755 below the prior close.
⚑ NEW: the high cleared MA20 by 93.50 and MA10 by 65.00 and both were handed back — a second consecutive clear-then-fail, with the give-back widening from 100 points to 185.
⚑ NEW: volume rose 22.5% to 175,448 lots and open interest rose 4,745 on a LOWER close — fresh selling into a failed rally, the mirror image of the prior session’s covering and the same conclusion.
⚑ NEW: MA20 rose to 23,846.50 and the gap from the close widened from 54.50 to 91.50; MA10 at 23,875.00 is 120.00 above.
⚑ NEW: the retracement of the August 3–12 advance worsened from 81.4% to 82.9%.
⚑ NEW: the 20-session close percentile is only 36.8% — the low-middle of the month’s range.
⚑ NEW: all five absolute spot calibers lagged the board, ending four consecutive sessions of physical strength.
⚑ NEW: Shanghai spot minus the board swung 60 points from +35 to −25; Chalco East China went from 35 above the close to 15 below.
⚑ NEW: LME cash at $3,188.00 (−$27.50, −0.86%) LOST both MA5 ($3,200.80) and MA40 ($3,197.95) and is now below every average this brief can compute.
⚑ NEW: LME cash sits only $6.00 above the run’s low of $3,182.00 and $185.00 below the August 11 high.
⚑ NEW: the LME contango remains at −$18.50; the front-end discount structure is unchanged.
⚑ NEW: alumina AO2610 closed 2,676, below ALL SIX of its averages, with the whole twelve-month curve in monotonic contango — the front is pricing surplus.
⚑ NEW: alumina open interest fell 21,287 on a lower close — length leaving; and it fell again overnight to 2,656, moving opposite to aluminium.
⚑ NEW: the July full cost of 2,718 that alumina touched on August 24 was not revisited on August 25 (high 2,710).
⚑ NEW: SMM carries “domestic alumina weak, overseas strengthening” — cost support is degrading from global to regional.
⚑ NEW: the dollar fell only 0.04% on a 5.4-point dovish repricing; the transmission is compressed at the dollar link.
⚑ NEW: Brent fell for a third consecutive session and by the largest of the three, removing cost support and risk premium together (⊘ four calibers spanning $3.17).
⚑ NEW: Pakistan’s army chief carried a reported sanctions-relief proposal to Tehran — a de-escalation path has reopened.
⚑ NEW: the night session’s open interest fell 5,018 on a rising price — covering rather than fresh length, the same signature that preceded August 24’s give-back.
⊘ NEW: the night-session figures are a live quote on an unfinished session, not a settlement, and must still survive today’s day session.
⚑ NEW: AD2610 closed below four of its six averages (MA10, MA20, MA30, MA60).
⚑ Restated: cast alloy ingot social inventory built 2,500 mt for a second week and warrants rose 241 mt — the alloy and primary calibers keep diverging.
⚑ Restated: weekly ingot outflows at 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w — the destock is still arrival-led rather than consumption-led.
⚑ Restated: China’s July primary output 3.90 mt, +3.8% y/y; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m; July anode exports +21.86% y/y with Indonesia at 45%.
⊘ Restated: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven sub-sectors contracting; July passenger vehicle retail −20.9%; Jan–Jul FAI −6.7%; new home prices −3.2%; the August billet operating rate estimated back to about 56.9%; secondary aluminium stalled at 49.1%.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

August 25’s day session and night session say opposite things: the day was a bearish outside session — a higher high at 23,940 that cleared both MA20 and MA10 intraday, a lower low at 23,695, and a close of 23,755 that handed the whole advance back for a second consecutive clear-then-fail, on volume up 22.5% and open interest up 4,745 that reads as fresh selling — while on the physical side all five absolute spot calibers lagged the board and four sessions of spot strength ended by full reversal, swinging the basis 60 points to a 25 discount; and then the night session opened 23,730 and ran to 24,075, the highest print since August 17, clearing MA10 by 200 and MA20 by 228.50, though open interest fell 5,018 into it and the figure is a live quote on an unfinished session; meanwhile both inventory calibers turned bullish together for the first time since mid-August, with domestic social inventory at 860,000 mt for a sixth consecutive draw and the largest weekly step in four weeks, and LME’s six-session frozen print breaking as a 100 mt draw; the macro column turned dovish for the first time in five sessions on Conference Board confidence at a seven-month low of 89.4, taking September hike odds to 37.0% and restoring a hold as October’s modal outcome, but the dollar fell only 0.04% and the transmission stops there; while LME cash at $3,188.00 now sits below every average this brief can compute and alumina sits below all six of its own with the entire curve in contango; and this edition corrects its own method, having recomputed every moving average exactly from the exchange’s 100-session close file and found the prior edition’s bounded MA60 range of 23,585–23,619 too low against a true value of 23,636.33. This brief makes no investment recommendation; the above separates confirmed data from its interpretation throughout.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 26) Day and Night Sessions

⚑ Whether the day session can hold what the night session took at 24,075 — this is the single primary test today. The night high of 24,075 sits 200.00 above MA10 (23,875.00) and 228.50 above MA20 (23,846.50), while the 09:01 last price of 23,870 had already fallen back 5.00 below MA10 and 23.50 above MA20. A close above MA10 ends two consecutive sessions of clear-then-fail and takes the reclaimed averages from four of six to five; a close beneath MA20 hands the entire night advance back and leaves the day session’s bearish outside bar as the governing pattern. Because open interest fell 5,018 into that rally, the move is covering rather than fresh length (interpretation) — which makes whether it HOLDS more informative than how high it went.
⚑ Whether the physical lags the board for a second session, and whether the basis stays at a discount. On August 25 all five absolute calibers lagged (−70 to −20 against −10) and Shanghai spot swung from 35 above the board to 25 below. If the physical again rises less than the board today, four sessions of spot support have formally become spot drag; if it beats the board, August 25 was a one-session event. Watch also whether Chalco’s East China quotation returns above the board’s close, and whether SMM’s East China transaction premium resumes publication — it has now been unretrievable for three consecutive editions.
⚑ Whether Nanhai−Shanghai at 460 and Nanchu−Shanghai at 170 keep widening. Yesterday’s finding was that the spreads widened while absolute prices fell, rather than converging as this brief had asked. If both widen again today, South China’s relative scarcity is structural; if they narrow on a rising board, the earlier widening owed more to East China’s weakness than to South China’s tightness (interpretation).
⚑ Inventory: Friday August 28 brings both the SHFE weekly report and a new ingot-outflow print, and that is the next test of the “arrival-led destock” qualification. Domestic social inventory has now drawn for a sixth consecutive reading to 860,000 mt, and LME broke its six-session freeze with a 100 mt draw. If outflows rise alongside the draw, the destock changes character from arrival-led to consumption-led and its price support strengthens materially; if outflows stay flat or fall again, the qualification stands. The direction of LME’s SECOND change after the first is worth the same attention the first one got.
⚑ Whether LME cash can retake MA5 ($3,200.80) and MA40 ($3,197.95), the two averages it lost yesterday. Cash at $3,188.00 is below every average this brief can compute and sits only $6.00 above the run’s low of $3,182.00. A break of $3,182.00 is a new low for the run and its signal value exceeds its point value; retaking $3,200.80 makes yesterday’s loss a one-session event. Note also that Westmetall’s cash settlement and TradingEconomics’ forward caliber disagreed IN SIGN on August 25 — take the cash settlement as primary today and watch whether the two realign.
⚑ Whether the dollar closes below 99 for a sixth session, and whether the dovish repricing extends. Yesterday a 5.4-point dovish move bought a 0.04% dollar decline. The thing to watch is therefore not the probability but the transmission: if odds keep falling AND the dollar weakens with them, macro upgrades from “removing suppression” to “providing thrust”; if odds fall while the dollar rebounds above 99, yesterday’s rate improvement means nothing for aluminium. Before core PCE and Warsh on Friday, that pairing is the week’s most penetrating macro variable.
⚑ Whether alumina can arrest a decline that has taken it below all six of its averages, and whether the internal-external split widens further. AO2610 closed 2,676 below every average and fell again overnight to 2,656, with the whole curve in monotonic contango from 2,667 to 2,861. If the domestic price keeps weakening while ex-China holds $363–364 FOB East Australia, the Chinese smelter cost line keeps falling — bullish for smelting margin and bearish for the cost floor beneath the metal (interpretation). Watch also whether the July full cost of 2,718, touched on August 24, is retested.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变者;标注「此为推算」者为本简报依据已列示数据自行计算所得,并非原始来源发布之数值。本期沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金的全部移动平均线,均由上海期货交易所公布的 4月1日至 8月25日共 100 个交易日收盘序列精确计算,并据此更正上一期以有界推算给出的 MA30/MA40/MA60,其中 8月24日 MA60 的真实值 23,636.33 落在上期所给区间 23,585–23,619 之外。伦铝现货均线仅取得 43 个交易日,故 MA60 不予计算。8月25日夜盘数据为未完成时段的实时报价,非交易所结算数据,明日将被重述。SMM 8月24日社会库存为二手检索转载并经两次独立检索互证,非本简报直接取自 SMM 原始发布。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only figures, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” are unchanged because no new data has arrived since the prior edition; items marked “(derivation)” are calculated by this brief from the data listed and were not published as such by the original source. Every moving average for SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast aluminium alloy in this edition is computed exactly from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s published close series for the 100 trading days from April 1 to August 25, and that computation is the basis on which the prior edition’s bounded MA30/MA40/MA60 are corrected — the true August 24 MA60 of 23,636.33 falls OUTSIDE the 23,585–23,619 range that edition stated. LME cash moving averages rest on 43 retrieved sessions, so MA60 is not computed. The night-session figures are a live quote on an unfinished session rather than exchange settlement data and will be restated tomorrow. SMM’s August 24 social inventory print is relayed from secondary retrieval, corroborated by two independent searches, and was not taken directly from SMM’s original publication.

一 · 行情表现

二 · 铝价及相关市场

三 · 库存

四 · 宏观因素

五 · 基本面

六 · 电解铝现货市场

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

八 · 一句话观点

九 · 今日(8月26日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

1 · Market Performance

2 · Aluminum Prices and Related Markets

3 · Inventory

4 · Macro Factors

5 · Fundamentals

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

7 · Key Price Drivers

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 26) Day and Night Sessions