Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

The 24,075 night high is confirmed and then handed back in full as SHFE closes at 23,760. Alumina falls to 2,638, below cost.夜盘 24,075 高点获确认后全数回吐,沪铝收于 23,760;氧化铝跌至 2,638,低于成本线。

Thursday, August 27, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Thursday August 27 (Asia), at the open of the SHFE day session. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete August 26 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards from the exchange's own daily file — which CONFIRMS the prior edition's live night quote of 24,075 as the trading day's high, to the yuan; the August 26 LME cash and 3M settlements and stocks; the cnal spot table and Chalco's FULL four-region producer quotation for August 26 (all four regions retrieved for the first time in four editions); the July PCE release and the Fed repricing it caused; and the August 26 NIGHT SESSION, which has CLOSED and is carried as a completed session rather than a live quote. ⚑ TWO METHOD UPGRADES: the SHFE close series is extended to 109 trading days (March 20 to August 26), and the LME cash series is extended from 43 sessions to 165 (January 2 to August 26) — so LME MA60 is COMPUTED FOR THE FIRST TIME in this brief. Every MA5–MA60 figure below, on all four price series, is exact. ⊘ STILL NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM's A00 absolute quote, SMM's regional transaction premia and SMM's shipment/purchasing sentiment indices (carried at August 20 for a fourth consecutive edition, behind a login wall); SMM's August 27 Thursday social inventory print, which is not published at the time of writing (carried at August 24); SMM's alumina spot assessments for August 26; the Shanghai Huatong spot caliber, absent from the August 26 cnal table; and SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 26.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE PRIOR EDITION'S LIVE NIGHT QUOTE IS CONFIRMED EXACT — 24,075 The exchange file gives the Aug 26 trading day's high as 24,075, the same figure this brief carried live at 09:01 Beijing. The live caliber was right to the yuan
⚑ AND IT WAS HANDED BACK IN FULL: CLOSE 23,760, +5 (+0.02%) AL2610: open 23,730, high 24,075, low 23,720, close 23,760, settlement 23,870, prior settlement 23,800. The whole night advance is gone by the bell
⚑ THIRD CONSECUTIVE CLEAR-THEN-FAIL, AND THE GIVE-BACK HAS TRIPLED High-to-close give-back: 100 (Aug 24) → 185 (Aug 25) → 315 (Aug 26). Each attempt reaches higher and surrenders more (derivation)
⚑ BUT THE SETTLEMENT CALIBER SAYS THE OPPOSITE, FOR A THIRD SESSION Settlement 23,870 is 48.00 ABOVE MA10 and 6.50 ABOVE MA20 — both cleared. The close is 62.00 and 103.50 BELOW them — both lost. Same session
⚑ VOLUME 227,181 (+29.5%) IS THE HIGHEST IN AT LEAST FORTY SESSIONS From 175,448. Open interest FELL 6,256 to 262,191 on a marginally higher close — heavy turnover that closed positions rather than opening them
MA5 = 23,717.00 — held by 43.00 for a third consecutive session Rises from 23,700.00. The only average beneath the price at the near end, and the streak is now three
⚑ MA10 FELL TO 23,822.00 AND THE GAP NARROWED 120.00 → 62.00 Aug 17's 24,035 dropped out (−53.00 on the average). The price did not close the gap; the average came down to meet it (derivation)
⚑ BUT MA20 ROSE AGAIN TO 23,863.50 AND ITS GAP WIDENED 91.50 → 103.50 From 23,846.50 (+17.00) as Jul 28's 23,215 drops out. The two near averages are moving in opposite directions and the price is between them
MA30 23,649.17 (+110.83), MA40 23,492.25 (+267.75), MA60 23,604.25 (+155.75) All exact from 109 sessions. Four of six reclaimed for a third consecutive session — the count has not moved since August 24
⚑ Retracement of the Aug 3–12 advance IMPROVES: 82.9% → 82.2% Launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; close 23,760 is 115 above the launch. A 0.7pp improvement on a +5 close (derivation)
⊘ AND THE 20-SESSION PERCENTILE FELL ON A HIGHER CLOSE: 36.8% → 23.7% Because the window's floor ROSE — Jul 29's 23,420 dropped out and the range became 23,595–24,290. The rank fell while the price rose (derivation)
60-session percentile 59.5% (close range 22,445–24,655) Up from 55.9% as Jun 3's 24,930 leaves the window. Low-quarter of the month, upper-middle of the quarter (derivation)
⚑ THE SPOT STREAK RESUMED AFTER EXACTLY ONE SESSION — AND ALL EIGHT BEAT Nanchu +230, Nanhai +220, Chalco South +160, Shanghai +130, Chalco East +130, Changjiang +110, Chalco SW +100, Chalco Central +50, against the board's +5
⚑ THE OUTPERFORMANCE RUNS 45 TO 225 POINTS — THE WIDEST OF THE RUN Yesterday's full reversal reversed again in one session. A one-session interruption, not the end of a regime (interpretation)
⚑ AND THE BASIS SWUNG 125 POINTS BACK INTO A PREMIUM Shanghai spot 23,860 is 100 ABOVE the board's 23,760; on Aug 25 it was 25 below. Chalco East 23,870 is 110 above, from 15 below (derivation)
⚑ CHALCO'S FULL FOUR-REGION QUOTATION IS RETRIEVED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR EDITIONS East 23,870 (+130), South 24,110 (+160), Southwest 23,930 (+100), Central 23,790 (+50). All four dated Aug 26 — no restatement needed
⚑ AND THE SOUTH CHINA SPREADS WIDENED ON A RISING BOARD Nanhai−Shanghai 460 → 550, the run's widest (350→400→400→390→450→450→460→550). Nanchu−Shanghai 170 → 270. Chalco South−East 150 → 240
⚑ THAT ANSWERS THE QUESTION THIS BRIEF ASKED FOR TWO EDITIONS The prior edition said narrowing on a rising board would mean East China weakness. They WIDENED on a rising board. South China tightness is structural (interpretation)
⚑ AND 23,870 IS THREE DIFFERENT THINGS AT ONCE The Aug 26 SETTLEMENT, the night session's HIGH, and Chalco's East China quotation — three independent calibers landing on one number, 6.50 above MA20 (derivation)
⚑ LONDON REVERSED IN ONE SESSION: cash $3,227.50 (+$39.50, +1.24%) 3M $3,239.00 (+$32.50, +1.01%). Contango narrows −$18.50 → −$11.50. Cash is $45.50 above the run's low and $145.50 below the Aug 11 high
⚑ FROM BELOW EVERY AVERAGE TO FOUR OF SIX RECLAIMED IN A DAY MA5 $3,208.00 (+$19.50) and MA40 $3,201.76 (+$25.74) retaken outright; MA10 $3,224.95 (+$2.55) and MA30 $3,226.03 (+$1.47) held only marginally
⚑ METHOD: LME MA60 IS COMPUTED FOR THE FIRST TIME — $3,263.13 The cash series is extended from 43 sessions to 165 (Jan 2–Aug 26). Cash is $35.63 below it, and below MA20 $3,249.25 by $21.75
⊘ AND IT RETROSPECTIVELY CONFIRMS YESTERDAY'S CLAIM Aug 25's MA60 was $3,272.62, so cash at $3,188.00 was indeed below every average — including the one the prior edition could not compute (derivation)
⚑ LME STOCKS 246,825 mt — UNCHANGED. THE FREEZE RESUMED Yesterday's watchlist asked for the direction of the SECOND change after the 100 mt draw. The answer is that there was no second change
⚑ SHFE-LME ratio CONTRACTS 7.4514 → 7.3617 — first contraction in three London rose 1.24% against Shanghai's 0.02%. The sequence is 7.3474 → 7.3901 → 7.4514 → 7.3617 (derivation)
⊘ THE TWO LME CALIBERS CONVERGED IN LEVEL WHILE DISAGREEING IN SIGN TradingEconomics $3,224.75 (−0.58%) against Westmetall cash $3,227.50 (+1.24%). $2.75 apart, having been $55.50 apart on Aug 25 (derivation)
⊘ A third LME caliber: cnal carries 3M at $3,229.50 (−$14.50) Against Westmetall's 3M at $3,239.00 (+$32.50). Three calibers, two signs, all listed, NONE reconciled
⚑ ALUMINA BROKE: AO2610 2,638 (−38, −1.42% close-to-close) Open 2,677, high 2,677, low 2,635, settlement 2,655, prior settlement 2,691 — so −53 (−1.97%) on the settlement caliber
⚑ AND IT OPENED AT ITS HIGH — THERE WAS NO UPSIDE ATTEMPT AT ALL Open = high = 2,677. Every subsequent print of the session was lower than the first (derivation)
⚑ 2,638 TIES THE AUG 3 CLOSE AND SITS 9 ABOVE THE SERIES-LOW CLOSE Only Jul 31's 2,629 is lower across 109 sessions. Below all six averages for a second session: MA5 2,673.00 … MA60 2,756.52
⚑ AND THE INTERNALS FLIPPED: OI +14,282 ON THE FALL Volume 275,656 (+27.7%); OI 264,269. Yesterday's −21,287 on a lower close was length leaving; this is fresh shorts arriving (interpretation)
⚑ ALUMINA IS NOW BELOW EVERY COST CALIBER THIS BRIEF CARRIES 2,638 is 80 below the 2,718 July full-cost caliber and 188.21 below a second caliber at 2,826.21 (⊘ secondary; both listed, NOT reconciled)
⚑ AD2610 23,130 (+50) — FOUR of six averages reclaimed, up from two MA10 23,099.50 RECLAIMED by 30.50; MA5 23,042.00 (+88.00), MA40 23,097.75 (+32.25), MA60 23,099.75 (+30.25) all held. Only MA20 and MA30 above
⚑ And the cast-alloy discount narrowed a THIRD consecutive session AD−AL: 770 → 675 → 630. Cast alloy has beaten primary on the board for three sessions running (derivation)
⚑ THE NIGHT SESSION HAS CLOSED — 23,830, and it stopped AT MA20 Aug 26 night: open 23,760, high 23,870, low 23,710, last 23,830, VWAP 23,783.02. The high stopped 6.50 above MA20; the last sits 8.00 above MA10
⚑ BUT NIGHT OPEN INTEREST FELL A SECOND TIME: −7,634 to 254,557 After −5,018 the night before. Two consecutive night sessions of price up on falling OI is covering, not fresh length (interpretation)
⚑ JULY PCE LANDED 30 MINUTES BEFORE THE NIGHT SESSION OPENED 08:30 ET = 20:30 Beijing. Headline 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected (unchanged from June, a three-year high); core 3.3% and +0.2% m/m, both in line
⚑ AND THE FED CURVE SPLIT: NEAR END DOVISH, FAR END HAWKISH Sept 16 hike 37.0% → 35.7% (second dovish print); Dec 9 implied ≥1 hike 70.6% → 72.6%. October's hold stays modal but its margin narrows 5.5pp → 5.1pp
⚑ THE DOLLAR RECLAIMED 99 AND GAINED THE MOST IN FOUR WEEKS Ending five consecutive closes below 99; TradingEconomics carries 99.124 on the Aug 27 quote (monthly −2.38%, yearly +1.34%)
⊘ WHICH SOLVES THE FIVE-SESSION PUZZLE THIS BRIEF KEPT RESTATING The dollar tracks the YEAR-END caliber, not September. Sept fell 1.3pp and Dec rose 2.0pp; the dollar followed December (interpretation)
Gold $4,593.74 (−1.38%) reversed yesterday's +1.00%; silver $68.40 (−0.29%) Bullion read hot headline PCE as hawkish and gave back the Conference Board rally. Aluminium rose while gold fell (secondary)
⚑ BRENT FELL A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION — and the reason is Hormuz $87.39 on the Aug 27 quote (−0.51%); WTI $80.78 on Aug 26 (−1.92%). ⊘ Calibers differ; the Aug 26 morning note carried Brent $86.80
⚑ IRAN AND OMAN AGREED SHARES OF HORMUZ'S WATERS AND ITS REVENUES IRGC, Aug 26. Plus a temporary route entering through Iranian territorial waters. ⊘ BUT no full reopening until the LAPSED June interim deal is honoured
⚑ Canada doubles its aluminium counter-tariff to 50% on September 8 Retaliation covering about $20B of US goods, steel and aluminium counter-tariffs doubled, reaching consumer categories as well (secondary)
⊘ CORRECTION: ALUNORTE IS NOT RUNNING AT 50% It ramped to FULL capacity in mid-August after ANP approved self-importer status and a temporary CELBA terminal deal. Lost output 100–120kt; Q3 hit $75–100m
⊘ Two smaller corrections to this brief's own level tables AO2610's Jul 31 CLOSE is 2,629 (2,621 was that day's LOW); AL2610's Aug 3 LOW is 23,450, not 23,460 — so Aug 21's 23,465 was 15 above it, not 5
⊘ SMM's Thursday social inventory is not published at writing Carried at Aug 24: 860,000 mt, −15,000 w/w, a sixth consecutive draw. SHFE weekly warehouse 403,797 mt (−18,300) updates tomorrow
Clock: Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote is TOMORROW Friday Aug 28, about 10:00 ET, 19 days before the Sept 16–17 FOMC. SHFE trades today in full plus Friday's day session before he speaks

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 8月27日(周四)上午,沪铝日盘开盘之际。
  • ⚑ 下文全部 8月26日的沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金价格、结算价、成交量、持仓量,均为上海期货交易所公布的 8月26日交易日(8月25日夜盘 + 8月26日日盘合并)数据。
  • ⚑ 8月26日夜盘(21:00 至 8月27日 01:00,归属 8月27日交易日)已经收盘,本期按「已完成时段」列示,而非上期的实时报价。
  • ⚑ 本期两项方法延伸:沪铝收盘序列延长至 109 个交易日(3月20日至 8月26日);伦铝现货序列由 43 个交易日延长至 165 个(1月2日至 8月26日)——因此本简报首次得以计算伦铝 MA60。下文四条价格序列的 MA5 至 MA60 全部为精确值。
  • ⊘ 本期未取得:SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分地区成交升贴水、出货/采购情绪指数(已连续第四期未取得,来源需登录),SMM 8月27日(周四)社会库存(写稿时点尚未发布),SMM 8月26日氧化铝现货评估,世铝网 8月26日表中缺失的上海华通口径,以及上期所 8月26日日度仓单吨数。

⚑ 沪铝 AL2610:24,075 元经交易所确认,而它被完整交还

  • AL2610(主力):开 23,730,高 24,075,低 23,720,收 23,760,结算 23,870,前结算 23,800。收盘对前结算 −40(−0.17%);收盘对收盘 +5(+0.02%);结算对前结算 +70(+0.29%)。成交 227,181 手(前值 175,448,+51,733,+29.5%);持仓 262,191 手(前值 268,447,−6,256)。
  • ⚑ 上期以实时报价载入的夜盘最高价 24,075 元,经交易所文件确认即为 8月26日交易日的最高价,分文不差。上期已明确标注该数据为「未完成时段的实时报价,明日将被重述」——本期确认其无需重述。
  • ⚑ 但日盘未能守住:收盘 23,760 元,仅高于前收 5 元,而当日最高价高于收盘 315 元。
  • ⚑ 这是连续第三个交易日「盘中越过上方压力、收盘将其交还」,且交还幅度在三个交易日内翻至三倍:8月24日 100 点、8月25日 185 点、8月26日 315 点。三次所触及的高点逐次抬高(23,865 → 23,940 → 24,075),而交还幅度亦逐次扩大(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 而结算价口径连续第三个交易日给出相反结论:结算 23,870 元高于 MA10 48.00 元、高于 MA20 6.50 元——两条均线均被越过;收盘 23,760 元低于二者 62.00 与 103.50 元——两条均线均告失守。同一交易日、同一块盘面、两个由交易所公布的数值,结论相反。本简报不作平均。
  • ⚑ 成交 227,181 手为本简报可查的近四十个交易日最高,而持仓量在收盘微涨的同时减少 6,256 手——巨量换手所了结的是既有头寸,而非新建头寸(此为解读)。
  • AL2609 收 23,730,结算 23,860,成交 55,084 手,持仓 79,325 手(−16,666);AL2611 收 23,750,结算 23,850,持仓 112,692 手(+6,236);AL2612 收 23,720;AL2701 收 23,670;AL2702 收 23,680;AL2703 收 23,705;AL2704 收 23,725;AL2705 收 23,710;AL2706 收 23,715;AL2707 收 23,735;AL2708 收 23,805。
  • ⚑ 移仓继续推进:AL2611 持仓 112,692 手已高出 AL2609 的 79,325 手 33,367 手。品种合计成交 373,185 手(前值 315,374,+18.3%);合计持仓 601,527 手(−7,990)。

⚑ 均线:两条近端均线正在反向移动

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,717.00(精确,较上日 23,700.00 上行)。收盘高于 43.00 元,连续第三个交易日站上。
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,822.00(精确),较 8月25日的 23,875.00 下行 53.00 元(8月17日的 24,035 移出窗口)。收盘低于 62.00 元——而 8月25日低于 120.00 元。⚑ 但差距的收窄并非价格上行所致,而是均线下行来就价格(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,863.50(精确),较 8月25日的 23,846.50 上行 17.00 元(7月28日的 23,215 移出窗口)。收盘低于 103.50 元——而 8月25日低于 91.50 元,差距继续扩大。
  • ⚑ MA30 = 23,649.17;MA40 = 23,492.25;MA60 = 23,604.25(全部精确)。收盘分别高出 110.83、267.75、155.75 元。
  • ⚑ 六条均线仍收复四条(MA5、MA30、MA40、MA60),已连续第三个交易日数量不变——期间经历了一根看跌外包线、一次失败的突破与一个 +5 元的收盘。这正说明为何本简报在列示数量的同时必须列示距离。
  • ⚑ 价格被夹在下行的 MA10(23,822.00)与上行的 MA20(23,863.50)之间,而两条均线仅相距 41.50 元,数日内必将交叉或收敛(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤由 82.9% 改善至 82.2%(起点 23,645,高点 24,290,涨幅 645;收盘高于起点 115 元)(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 而 20 日收盘分位在收盘上涨的同时下降:由 36.8% 降至 23.7%。原因在于窗口下沿抬升——7月29日的 23,420 移出,区间由 23,420–24,290 收窄为 23,595–24,290。分位下降是关于比较集合的陈述,而非关于价格的陈述,此处如实列出而不予隐去(此为推算)。
  • 60 日收盘分位 59.5%(区间 22,445–24,655,6月3日的 24,930 已移出窗口),由 55.9% 上升(此为推算)。

解读:三次冲高、三次交还,而幅度逐次扩大

  • ⚑ 一个不断把触及点抬高、又不断把交还幅度扩大的市场,所描述的是「上方有供给到场」,而非「下方有需求失守」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 结算价高于两条均线而收盘低于两条均线,说明当日的加权均价在均线之上、而最后一笔在均线之下——卖压集中于尾盘,这与本期其余各栏彼此一致(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今日唯一的首要判据是 MA10(23,822.00):自 8月18日以来,尚无任何一个交易日收在其上方。

⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610:开盘即为全天最高,并向下破位

  • AO2610:开 2,677,高 2,677,低 2,635,收 2,638,结算 2,655,前结算 2,691。收盘对前结算 −53(−1.97%);收盘对收盘 −38(−1.42%)。成交 275,656 手(+59,719,+27.7%);持仓 264,269 手(+14,282)。
  • ⚑ 开盘价即为全天最高价(2,677 元),即全天此后每一笔成交均低于首笔(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 收盘 2,638 元与 8月3日收盘持平,且为本简报所取 109 个交易日序列中的次低收盘——仅 7月31日的 2,629 元低于它,低 9 元。
  • ⚑ 连续第二个交易日低于全部六条均线,且距离约扩大至三倍:MA5 2,673.00(−35.00)、MA10 2,678.70(−40.70)、MA20 2,678.40(−40.40)、MA30 2,692.23(−54.23)、MA40 2,701.35(−63.35)、MA60 2,756.52(−118.52)。
  • ⚑ 内部结构反向:持仓量在下跌中增加 14,282 手,而 8月25日的下跌伴随持仓减少 21,287 手。由「多头离场」转为「新增空头」(此为解读)。品种合计持仓增加 46,261 手至 541,221 手。
  • ⚑ 而价格现已低于本简报所载的每一套成本口径:低于 7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元 80 元;低于另一套口径的 2,826.21 元 188.21 元(该口径同时载 7 月行业平均利润 −64.21 元/吨、亏损收窄)。⊘ 两套成本口径并列,不调和。
  • ⚑ 推算:氧化铝对铝价比值降至 11.10%(2,638 ÷ 23,760),前值 11.27%。
  • ⚑ 全月份曲线仍呈单调 contango,但整条曲线较上期下移:AO2609 2,630 / 2610 2,638 / 2611 2,660 / 2612 2,682 / 2701 2,694 / 2702 2,714 / 2703 2,736 / 2704 2,753 / 2705 2,773 / 2706 2,801 / 2707 2,820 / 2708 2,834(上期区间为 2,667–2,861)。
  • ⚑ 夜盘(已收盘,8月27日 01:00):开 2,635,高 2,642,低 2,630,收 2,632,均价 2,634.19;成交 66,321 手;持仓 272,658 手(+8,389)——持仓在更低的价格上继续增加。
  • ⊘ 更正:前几期所载「2,621 元(7月31日收盘)」有误。7月31日的收盘价为 2,629 元,2,621 元为该日最低价。

⚑ 铸造铝合金 AD2610:六条均线收复四条,贴水连续第三次收窄

  • AD2610:开 23,150,高 23,385,低 23,065,收 23,130,结算 23,215,前结算 23,145。收盘对前结算 −15(−0.06%);收盘对收盘 +50(+0.22%)。成交 7,479 手;持仓 14,450 手(−2,542)。
  • ⚑ 六条均线由收复两条增至收复四条,且新增的一条是 MA10:MA5 23,042.00(+88.00)、MA10 23,099.50(+30.50,均线由 23,151.00 下行后被收复)、MA40 23,097.75(+32.25)、MA60 23,099.75(+30.25);仅 MA20 23,274.50(−144.50)与 MA30 23,179.33(−49.33)仍在收盘之上(全部精确)。
  • ⚑ 推算:AD2610 对 AL2610 的贴水连续第三个交易日收窄,770 → 675 → 630 元。铸造铝合金已连续三个交易日在盘面上跑赢原铝。
  • ⚑ 夜盘(已收盘):开 23,160,高 23,250,低 23,030,收 23,220(较 8月26日收盘 +90),均价 23,153.75;成交 3,480 手;持仓 13,225 手(−1,225)。

⚑ 伦铝:一个交易日由「全部均线之下」转为「收复四条」

  • Westmetall 官方口径,8月26日:现货结算 3,227.50 美元(+39.50,+1.24%);三个月 3,239.00 美元(+32.50,+1.01%);contango 由 −18.50 美元收窄至 −11.50 美元;库存 246,825 吨,与 8月25日持平。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货均线(精确,165 个交易日,1月2日至 8月26日):MA5 3,208.00(现货高于 19.50)、MA10 3,224.95(高于 2.55)、MA20 3,249.25(低于 21.75)、MA30 3,226.03(高于 1.47)、MA40 3,201.76(高于 25.74)、MA60 3,263.13(低于 35.63)。
  • ⚑ 本期方法延伸:伦铝现货序列由上期的 43 个交易日延长至 165 个,故 MA60 为本简报首次计算得出。⚑ 该延伸同时回溯确认了上期的判断:8月25日的 MA60 为 3,272.62 美元,故当日现货 3,188.00 美元确实低于每一条均线——包括上期无法计算的那一条。
  • ⚑ MA5 与 MA40 在 8月25日刚刚失守,8月26日即被收复;但 MA10 与 MA30 分别仅以 2.55 与 1.47 美元的幅度守住,而 MA20 仍未收复。
  • ⚑ 推算:现货 3,227.50 美元高于本轮低点 3,182.00 美元 45.50 美元,低于 8月11日高点 3,373.00 美元 145.50 美元。
  • ⚑ 推算:沪伦比值由 7.4514 收缩至 7.3617(23,760 ÷ 3,227.50),为连续两次扩大之后的首次收缩;序列 7.3474 → 7.3901 → 7.4514 → 7.3617。伦敦上涨 1.24% 而上海仅上涨 0.02%。
  • ⊘ 口径分歧本期在「水平」上收敛而在「符号」上仍存:TradingEconomics 载 8月26日为 3,224.75 美元(−18.75,−0.58%;月度 +1.70%,年度 +23.77%),与 Westmetall 现货结算 3,227.50 美元仅差 2.75 美元——而 8月25日二者相差 55.50 美元。⊘ 另有第三套口径:世铝网载 8月26日 LME 三个月为 3,229.50 美元(−14.50),与 Westmetall 三个月 +32.50 美元符号相反。三套并列,均不调和。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 8月26日现货:八套口径全部跑赢盘面,连胜仅中断一个交易日

  • ⚑ 世铝网口径,8月26日:有色宝长江 23,860 元(+110,区间 23,840–23,880);上海现货 23,860 元(+130,区间 23,840–23,880);南海有色 24,410 元(+220,区间 24,360–24,460);广东南储 24,130 元(+230,区间 24,100–24,160)。⊘ 上海华通口径在 8月26日表中未显示,为三个交易日内第二次缺失;8月25日的 23,830 元不予顺延。
  • ⚑ 中铝报价,8月26日——四个地区全部取得,为四期以来首次完整:华东 23,870 元(+130)、华南 24,110 元(+160)、西南 23,930 元(+100)、华中 23,790 元(+50)。
  • ⚑ 推算:八套现货口径的涨幅(+230 / +220 / +160 / +130 / +130 / +110 / +100 / +50)全部大于盘面收盘对收盘的 +5,跑赢幅度为 45 至 225 元,为本轮最大。
  • ⚑ 推算:上海现货减盘面收盘,由 8月25日的 −25 元转为 8月26日的 +100 元,单日摆动 125 元;中铝华东由低于盘面 15 元转为高于 110 元。这是连续第二个交易日出现六十点以上的基差摆动,而本次方向偏多。
  • ⚑ 推算:南海减上海 550 元,由 460 元扩大,创本轮最阔;序列 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450 → 460 → 550。南储减上海 270 元(由 170 扩大);长江减上海 0 元(由 20 收窄);中铝华南减华东 240 元(由 150–160 扩大);中铝西南减华东 60 元;中铝华中减华东 −80 元。
  • ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨(SMM,8月20日周度口径,转载);海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元/吨,马来西亚 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元,泰国 FOB 林查班约 3,070 美元;非洲铝锭 2,850 美元/吨(全部转载)。
  • 氧化铝:中国现货约 2,681.62 元/吨(SMM 综合,转载);中国以外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。⊘ 8月26日印记未取得。
  • ⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分地区成交升贴水已连续第四期未取得(来源需登录),继续载入 8月20日:A00 23,600 元(区间 23,580–23,620);华南 +160 / 华东 0 / 华中 −60。

解读:昨日的「反转」被反转,而华南的问题得到了回答

  • ⚑ 本简报昨日称「连续四个交易日的现货强势以全体反向的方式终结」。该表述过强。 8月26日八套口径全体反向回来,且跑赢幅度为本轮最大。更诚实的读法是:8月25日为单个交易日的中断,而非一个格局的结束。
  • ⚑ 而华南的问题已由市场自身回答。 本简报连问两期:南海减上海的扩大,究竟来自华南的紧张,还是来自华东的疲弱?上期并明确给出检验方法——「若在盘面上行中反而收窄,则前期扩大更多来自华东的疲弱」。今日盘面上行,而三条华南价差全部扩大(南海减上海 550、南储减上海 270、中铝华南减华东 240)。结论:华南的紧张是结构性的。这是本期最干净的一条基本面读数。
  • ⚑ 23,870 元同时是三个不同的东西:8月26日的结算价、夜盘的最高价、中铝华东的挂牌价。 三套彼此独立的口径落在同一个数字上,且该数字高于 MA20 6.50 元(此为推算)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 伦铝的答案是「没有答案」,而这本身是信息

  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 8月26日 246,825 吨,与 8月25日持平。上期观察清单问的是「首次变动之后的第二次变动方向」——答案是:没有第二次变动。
  • ⚑ 推算:自 8月17日以来的八个印记中,库存仅变动过一次、幅度 100 吨。在本轮绝对低位上,这是一个既不吸纳金属、也不释放金属的仓库。
  • ⊘ SMM 8月27日(周四)国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存于写稿时点尚未发布。继续载入 8月24日(周一)的 86.0 万吨,较 8月20日减少 1.5 万吨,为连续第六次去库。
  • ⚑ 序列(转载):100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5(8月20日)→ 86.0(8月24日);自 7月23日累计去库 14.6 万吨。
  • 上期所 8月17日–8月21日库存周报:铝 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨(转载;下一次更新为明日 8月28日)。
  • ⊘ 上期所 8月26日日度仓单吨数未取得。铸造铝合金注册仓单转载 8月24日的 20,208 吨(+241)。
  • 铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨);铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨);铸造铝合金锭社会库存 28,100 吨(环比 +2,500 吨,连续第二周累积)(全部转载)。
  • ⊘ 各套库存口径的统计窗口与覆盖范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期库存栏没有新增的国内硬数据,因此上期的两项限定原样保留:去库仍应与周度出库量合看,出库量 12.32 万吨环比 −0.1 万吨,库存降而出库不增,仍属到货驱动型去库。
  • ⚑ 明日(8月28日)将同时发布上期所周报与新一期出库量,是检验这一限定的时点,且该时点与沃什演讲同日。
  • ⚑ 而现货侧的强势与库存栏的沉默形成对照:在没有新库存数据的一天里,八套现货口径以本轮最大幅度跑赢盘面,并把基差推至 +100 元。这说明边际紧张来自可交割金属的区域分布,而非全国总量(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ PCE 于夜盘开盘前 30 分钟落地,而联储曲线就此分裂

  • ⚑ 美国 7 月 PCE 物价指数(8月26日美东 08:30 公布,即北京时间 8月26日 20:30——早于沪铝夜盘开盘 30 分钟,故由夜盘交易、日盘未交易):整体同比 3.7%,高于市场预期的 3.6%,与 6 月持平,为三年高位;环比 +0.2%。核心 PCE 同比 3.3%、环比 +0.2%,均符合预期。经通胀调整后的实际消费支出 7 月环比持平。二季度 GDP 维持 1.5% 未修正。
  • ⚑ Investing.com 联储利率监测器(8月26日 20:25 美东):9月16日 FOMC 维持 64.3% / 加息 35.7%。较上期的 63.0% / 37.0%,加息概率再降 1.3 个百分点,为连续第二次鸽派重定价。
  • ⚑ 10月28日:维持 48.0% / 加息一次 42.9% / 加息两次 9.0%。「维持」仍为众数,但其领先优势由 5.5 个百分点收窄至 5.1 个百分点(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 12月9日:维持 27.4% / 一次 45.1% / 两次 23.6% / 三次 3.9%;隐含至少加息一次概率由 70.6% 升至 72.6%(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 即:近端转鸽、远端转鹰——本简报此前未曾记录过这种分裂形态。
  • ⚑ 美元:收复 99 关口,结束连续五个交易日收在 99 下方,并录得近四周最大单日涨幅;通讯社口径将其归因于「押注联储将于年底前开始加息」。TradingEconomics 载 8月27日报价 99.124(−0.02%;月度 −2.38%,年度 +1.34%)。⊘ 8月26日的精确收盘值未单独取得,方向以来源措辞为准。
  • 黄金 4,593.74 美元(−1.38%),完整交还 8月25日的 +1.00%;白银 68.40 美元(−0.29%);黄金 12 月合约开于 4,715.70 美元后回落至 4,700 美元下方(全部为二手来源)。

解读:悬置五个交易日的「美元不配合」之谜,今日解开

  • ⚑ 本简报已连续五期指出「利率预期变化未能传导至美元」,并先后以「脱钩」「不对称且钝化」两种假说描述之。今日的数据表明:两种假说都错了,而错在同一个地方——看错了合约。
  • ⚑ 复盘三个交易日:8月24日,9 月加息概率上升 3.4 个百分点,美元 +0.19%;8月25日,9 月概率下降 5.4 个百分点,美元 −0.04%;8月26日,9 月概率再降 1.3 个百分点,而 12 月隐含至少加息一次上升 2.0 个百分点,美元录得近四周最大涨幅并收复 99。
  • ⚑ 以 12 月口径而非 9 月口径回看,美元的行为自始至终是连贯的。通讯社「年底前开始加息」的措辞,指的正是 12 月这一档。本简报因此撤回「不对称且钝化」的描述,代之以更简单的一条:此前用错了合约(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 其实务含义是:对铝而言,真正相关的联储数字是 12 月这一档,而非 9 月的标题概率;而 12 月这一档已连续两个交易日向不利于铝的方向移动(此为解读)。

⚑ 地缘:霍尔木兹出现六个月以来最实质的重开框架

  • ⚑ 8月26日,伊朗革命卫队表示,伊朗与阿曼已就霍尔木兹海峡水域的各自份额、以及该海峡收益的分配达成一致;双方并就一条临时航道达成协议,该航道自伊朗领海进入,部分出口段亦经由伊朗领海。
  • ⊘ 关键限定:海峡不会完全重开,直至美方履行其在 6 月签署的临时和平协议下的承诺——而该协议已经失效。
  • ⚑ 布伦特连续第四个交易日下跌。TradingEconomics 载 8月27日报价 87.39 美元(−0.51%);WTI 8月26日 80.78 美元(−1.92%)。⊘ 各套口径存在分歧,8月26日晨报另载布伦特 86.80 美元、WTI 80.76 美元。
  • ⚑ 加拿大对约 200 亿美元美国商品的反制措施自 9月8日生效,其中钢与铝的反制关税翻倍至 50%,并覆盖乳制品、家具、服装、游戏主机与智能手机等消费品类(二手来源)。
  • ⚑ 转载并保留:贝森特「经济弃儿行动」的次级制裁范畴已扩大至航运与船舶,但未指名国家、无最后期限。

时钟

  • ⚑ 沃什主席以主席身份发表的首次杰克逊霍尔主旨演讲为明日(8月28日,周五)美东上午约 10:00,距 9月16–17日 FOMC 十九天。全球央行年会 8月27–29日,主题为「金融创新:对支付体系与政策的影响」。
  • ⚑ 在演讲之前,沪铝仍将交易今日一个完整交易日,以及周五的日盘。
  • 中国政策转载:8月 LPR 维持 3.00% 与 3.50%,为连续第十五个月不变。7月29日 FOMC 维持 3.50%–3.75% 不变,三位地区联储主席投票支持加息。

解读

  • ⚑ 霍尔木兹的重开框架对铝是明确的利空,且是供给侧的利空穿着「风险溢价回落」的外衣。 海峡重开意味着海湾 LNG 恢复外运,进而意味着海湾电解铝复产——而国际铝业协会所载海湾 7 月产量同比 −44%,该缺口的回填速度可能快于 EGA 自身给出的 2027 年一季度指引(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 原油第四个下跌交易日同时移除成本支撑与风险溢价;而加拿大铝反制关税翻倍至 50%,则在需求一侧增加了北美贸易流的摩擦。两者方向一致,均为偏空(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⊘ 更正:阿卢诺特并非运行于 50%

  • ⊘ 本简报 8月26日期在基本面栏转载「阿卢诺特因天然气供应受限运行于 50%」。该表述已过时逾一周,现予撤回。
  • ⚑ 实际情况:巴西国家石油管理局(ANP)批准阿卢诺特作为天然气自主进口方,并与供气方 CELBA 达成临时接收站准入协议,该 630 万吨/年的氧化铝厂已于 8 月中旬开始恢复满产。减产期间损失产量估计为 100,000–120,000 吨;对 2026 年三季度铝土矿与氧化铝分部的财务影响估计为 7,500 万至 1 亿美元。
  • ⚑ 其含义必须说清:阿卢诺特不再是氧化铝供给的现存减项,不得再作为减项计入。在氧化铝录得本序列次低收盘的同一天,这正是一条若不更正便会误导读者的「陈旧利多转载」。

⚑ 氧化铝:价格已低于全部成本口径

  • ⚑ AO2610 收 2,638 元,低于 7 月全国加权平均完全成本 2,718 元 80 元;低于另一套口径的 2,826.21 元 188.21 元(该口径同时载 7 月行业平均利润 −64.21 元/吨、亏损收窄)。⊘ 两套成本口径并列,不调和;但在任一口径之下,当前盘面价格均处于成本之下。
  • ⚑ 对中国电解铝厂而言,这是成本下移与利润扩张;对铝价而言,这是下方成本支撑的失效(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 二手转载:几内亚三水铝土矿成交价已由历史高位回落至约 70 美元/干吨,结构性宽松(未标注具体日期,仅列示)。
  • 中国 7 月氧化铝产量 783.5 万吨,同比 +5.2%;全国开工率 74.33%;总库存 724.5 万吨(全部转载)。
  • ⚑ 转载:力拓 Yarwun 约 120 万吨/年氧化铝减产自 2026 年 10 月起(氧化铝端减量,其电解铝厂满负荷运行);卡塔尔 Qatalum 停产。
  • 南山铝业国际上半年:氧化铝销量 +15%,扣非净利 6,268.2 万美元、同比 −74.8%,均价 −39.5%(转载)。

⚑ 转载:供应算式的两端

  • 中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨,同比 +3.8%;中国以外同比 −6.7%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;国际铝业协会全球 7 月产量 616 万吨,同比 −1.7%(全部转载)。
  • 国际铝业协会海湾地区 7 月产量 29.3 万吨,同比 −44%;EGA 上半年产量 60.2 万吨,同比 −47%;EGA 阿联酋 Al Taweelah 已重启 1,262 台电解槽中的 18%,并预计于 2027 年一季度恢复战前产量水平;7 月铝水比例 78.3%;7 月铸锭量同比 −15.1%(全部转载)。
  • 7 月预焙阳极出口 211,700 吨,同比 +21.86%、环比 −24.40%;印尼 95,400 吨(45%)、挪威 26,900 吨(13%)、马来西亚 22,700 吨(11%);均价 1,031.80 美元/吨,环比 +12.34%(转载)。
  • ⊘ 运行产能口径冲突扩大:二手来源载 2026 年 2 月中旬总产能 4,540.2 万吨、运行产能 4,489.6 万吨、利用率 98.9%;6 月中旬利用率 98.43%、周产量 87.23 万吨;另有来源载运行产能约 4,519–4,540 万吨、利用率 97.7%、逼近 4,543 万吨合规天花板;本简报此前载月末产能约 4,629 万吨。四套口径定义不同,仅列示,不调和。共同含义仅有一条:国内供给刚性。

需求端:全部转载

  • 7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩);7 月乘用车零售同比 −20.9%,新能源车出口 +147.8%;8月1–16日新能源乘用车零售约 39.9 万辆、同比 −15%、份额 63.6%(⊘ 二手来源);1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%;新房价格同比 −3.2%;铝加工开工率 60.0%;再生铝开工率 49.1%;7 月铝棒开工率 58.3%,SMM 对 8 月的预估约 56.9%;7 月废铝进口约 119,600 吨,环比 −10.1%。
  • 出口四条序列(转载):7 月未锻轧铝及铝材 64.3 万吨,同比 +18.6%、环比 −9.6%,1–7 月累计 404 万吨、同比 +16.7%;铝箔 118,800 吨,环比 −9.3%,1–7 月 802,000 吨;铝板带 321,900 吨,环比 −9.1%、同比 +24%,1–7 月 2,111,300 吨;预焙阳极环比 −24.40%。⚑ 保留限定:铝箔与铝板带 7 月读数仍高于其自身 1–7 月月均(114,571 与 301,614 吨)。
  • 日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低;加拿大上半年对美铝出口 −25.03%;CBAM 自 2026年1月1日起覆盖铝,约 +47.5% 的缺省值上调仍然有效(全部转载)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期基本面有两处实质变化,且方向相反。 其一为更正:阿卢诺特满产,海外氧化铝减量少了一个 630 万吨/年的名字。其二为价格:氧化铝已跌破全部成本口径。两者叠加的含义是,氧化铝的下行并非缺乏供给的意外,而是供给充足条件下的正常出清——因而更可能延续,而非更可能反弹(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 而海湾重开的路径(霍尔木兹框架 → LNG → 电解铝复产)一旦启动,其时间表将快于 EGA 自身的 2027 年一季度指引。本简报不对该时间表给出估计,仅指出其方向为增加中国以外的原铝供给(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 需求端本期无新数据,故不作新的判断。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 8月26日:八套口径全部跑赢盘面,跑赢幅度为本轮最大

  • ⚑ 涨幅排序(8月26日):广东南储 +230 > 南海 +220 > 中铝华南 +160 > 上海现货 +130 = 中铝华东 +130 > 长江 +110 > 中铝西南 +100 > 中铝华中 +50 > AL2610 收盘对收盘 +5。
  • ⚑ 推算:跑赢盘面的幅度为 45 至 225 元;八套现货口径无一跑输,与 8月25日完全相反。
  • ⚑ 推算:上海现货 23,860 元高于盘面收盘 23,760 元 100 元;中铝华东 23,870 元高于 110 元。基差由 8月25日的 −25 元摆动至 +100 元。
  • ⚑ 推算:南海减上海 550 元(创本轮最阔);南储减上海 270 元;中铝华南减华东 240 元。三条华南价差在盘面上行之中同步扩大。
  • ⚑ 推算:上海现货 23,860 元高于 MA10(23,822.00)38.00 元,而低于 MA20(23,863.50)仅 3.50 元——现货价格本身正处于盘面均线带的上沿。
  • ⊘ SMM 分地区成交升贴水与情绪指数已连续第四期未取得;延续载入 8月20日:华南 +160、华东 0、华中 −60;华东出货 3.2 / 采购 3.16,华中出货 3.1 / 采购 2.9。

解读

  • ⚑ 现货侧本期给出的是一条强势读数,且强度为本轮之最。 八套独立编制的口径无一跑输盘面,跑赢中位数约 125 元。
  • ⚑ 而其最有价值之处不在幅度,而在它同时回答了华南的结构问题。 若华南的价差扩大源于华东疲弱,则在全国普涨的一天里价差应当收敛;实际结果是三条华南价差同步扩大,故其成因是华南自身的可交割金属稀缺(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 华东本期由观察位置转为确认位置。 中铝华东挂牌由低于盘面 15 元转为高于 110 元,上海现货由贴水 25 元转为升水 100 元。SMM 华东成交升贴水由平水转为实质升水,仍是本简报所等待的、最能直接确认需求侧参与的单一信号,而该数据已连续四期未取得(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

利多因素

  • ⚑ 新增:八套现货口径全部跑赢盘面(+230 至 +50 对 +5),跑赢幅度 45 至 225 元,为本轮最大;8月25日的全体反向仅持续一个交易日。
  • ⚑ 新增:上海现货减盘面基差由 −25 元摆动至 +100 元,单日 125 元;中铝华东由低于盘面 15 元转为高于 110 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:南海减上海扩大至 550 元、创本轮最阔;南储减上海扩至 270 元;中铝华南减华东扩至 240 元——三条华南价差在盘面上行中同步扩大。
  • ⚑ 新增:上期观察清单的检验条件被满足,华南紧张确认为结构性,而非华东疲弱所致(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 新增:中铝四地区挂牌全部取得且全部上调(华东 +130、华南 +160、西南 +100、华中 +50),为四期以来首次完整。
  • ⚑ 新增:上海现货 23,860 元已高于 MA10 38.00 元,现货价格自身站上盘面均线。
  • ⚑ 新增:伦铝现货 3,227.50 美元(+39.50,+1.24%),由低于全部均线转为收复 MA5、MA10、MA30、MA40 四条。
  • ⚑ 新增:伦铝 contango 由 −18.50 美元收窄至 −11.50 美元,近月贴水结构改善。
  • ⚑ 新增:伦铝现货高于本轮低点 3,182.00 美元 45.50 美元,8月20日以来的下行未创新低。
  • ⚑ 新增:上期以实时报价载入的夜盘高点 24,075 元经交易所文件确认分文不差,该口径的可靠性得到验证。
  • ⚑ 新增:24,075 元为 8月17日以来最高印记,盘中高出 MA10 253.00 元、高出 MA20 211.50 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:8月26日结算价 23,870 元高于 MA10 48.00 元、高于 MA20 6.50 元——结算口径下两条均线均被越过。
  • ⚑ 新增:MA10 下行 53.00 元至 23,822.00,与收盘的差距由 120.00 元收窄至 62.00 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:MA5 23,717.00 连续第三个交易日被守住,幅度 43.00 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤由 82.9% 改善至 82.2%。
  • ⚑ 新增:60 日收盘分位由 55.9% 升至 59.5%。
  • ⚑ 新增:AD2610 六条均线由收复两条增至四条,MA10 被收复;对 AL2610 的贴水连续第三次收窄(770 → 675 → 630)。
  • ⚑ 新增:夜盘 AD2610 再涨 90 元至 23,220,合金端连续走强。
  • ⚑ 新增:9 月加息概率由 37.0% 降至 35.7%,为连续第二次鸽派重定价;10 月「维持」仍为众数。
  • ⚑ 新增:核心 PCE 同比 3.3%、环比 +0.2%,均符合预期,未出现上行意外。
  • ⚑ 转载:SMM 8月24日社会库存 86.0 万吨,连续第六次去库,自 7月23日累计去库 14.6 万吨,且为本轮最低位。
  • ⚑ 转载:上期所周度库存 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨,较上一周的 −13,642 吨加速。
  • ⚑ 转载:国际铝业协会海湾 7 月产量 29.3 万吨、同比 −44%;EGA 上半年 −47%;中国以外 7 月产量同比 −6.7%;全球同比 −1.7%。
  • ⚑ 转载:力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月起减产约 120 万吨/年氧化铝;卡塔尔 Qatalum 停产。
  • ⚑ 转载:国内电解铝运行产能贴近合规天花板、利用率 97.7%–98.9%(⊘ 四套口径),供给刚性明确。
  • 转载:7 月铝水比例 78.3%、铸锭量同比 −15.1%,持续压制铝锭形成量。
  • 转载:日本三大港口库存 20.1 万吨,为 2010 年 4 月以来最低。
  • 转载:预焙阳极出口均价 1,031.80 美元/吨、环比 +12.34%,碳阳极成本上升推高各地电解成本。

利空因素

  • ⚑ 新增:8月26日为连续第三个交易日「越过又交还」,且交还幅度由 100 点、185 点扩大至 315 点。
  • ⚑ 新增:收盘 23,760 元较前收仅 +5 元,而当日最高价高于收盘 315 元;夜盘取得的全部涨幅在日盘中被完整交还。
  • ⚑ 新增:收盘仍低于 MA10 62.00 元、低于 MA20 103.50 元;自 8月18日以来无任何一个交易日收在 MA10 之上。
  • ⚑ 新增:MA20 升至 23,863.50 元,与收盘的差距由 91.50 元继续扩大至 103.50 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:成交 227,181 手创近四十个交易日新高,而持仓减少 6,256 手——巨量换手所了结的是既有头寸。
  • ⚑ 新增:20 日收盘分位由 36.8% 降至 23.7%,处于本月区间的低位四分之一。
  • ⚑ 新增:夜盘持仓连续第二夜减少(−7,634,前夜 −5,018),涨幅由回补驱动而非新增多头。
  • ⚑ 新增:夜盘最高 23,870 元仅高出 MA20 6.50 元即止步,收盘 23,830 元回落至 MA20 之下 33.50 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,638 元,开盘即为全天最高,全天无一笔高于首笔。
  • ⚑ 新增:2,638 元平 8月3日收盘,为 109 个交易日序列的次低收盘,仅高于 7月31日的 2,629 元 9 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:氧化铝持仓在下跌中增加 14,282 手,由多头离场转为新增空头;品种合计持仓增加 46,261 手。
  • ⚑ 新增:氧化铝价格已低于本简报所载的全部成本口径(低于 2,718 元 80 元;低于 2,826.21 元 188.21 元),下方成本支撑失效。
  • ⚑ 新增:氧化铝对铝价比值降至 11.10%(前值 11.27%);全月份曲线整体下移(2,630–2,834,前值 2,667–2,861)。
  • ⚑ 新增:氧化铝夜盘持仓再增 8,389 手,而价格续跌至 2,632 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:12 月隐含至少加息一次概率由 70.6% 升至 72.6%;10 月「维持」的领先优势由 5.5 个百分点收窄至 5.1 个百分点。
  • ⚑ 新增:美元收复 99 关口,结束连续五个交易日收于 99 下方,并录得近四周最大单日涨幅。
  • ⚑ 新增:本简报确认美元跟踪的是 12 月而非 9 月口径,而 12 月口径已连续两个交易日向不利于铝的方向移动(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 新增:7 月 PCE 整体同比 3.7%,高于预期的 3.6%,为三年高位,通胀黏性支持年内加息叙事。
  • ⚑ 新增:黄金 4,593.74 美元(−1.38%)完整交还前一日涨幅,贵金属对同一组数据作出偏空反应。
  • ⚑ 新增:伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹水域份额与收益分配达成一致,并商定临时航道——为二月以来最实质的重开框架,指向海湾电解铝复产提速。
  • ⚑ 新增:布伦特连续第四个交易日下跌,成本支撑与风险溢价同步回落。
  • ⚑ 新增:加拿大对钢与铝的反制关税自 9月8日翻倍至 50%,北美贸易流摩擦上升。
  • ⊘ 新增(更正):阿卢诺特已于 8 月中旬恢复满产,海外氧化铝减量少了一个 630 万吨/年的名字——本简报上期的转载为陈旧利多,现予撤回。
  • ⚑ 新增:伦铝库存 246,825 吨与前一日持平,八个印记仅变动一次、幅度 100 吨。
  • ⚑ 新增:伦铝 MA10 与 MA30 分别仅以 2.55 与 1.47 美元守住,MA20(3,249.25)与 MA60(3,263.13)仍未收复。
  • ⚑ 新增:沪伦比值由 7.4514 收缩至 7.3617,内盘相对强度回落。
  • ⚑ 转载:铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨、环比 −0.1 万吨——去库仍由到货减少驱动,而非消费驱动。
  • ⚑ 转载:铸造铝合金锭社会库存连续第二周 +2,500 吨,合金端与原生端持续分化。
  • ⚑ 转载:中国 7 月原铝产量 390 万吨、同比 +3.8%;海外日均产量环比 +1.6%;7 月预焙阳极出口同比 +21.86%。
  • ⊘ 转载:7 月铝加工 PMI 42.2%(七个子行业全部收缩)、7 月乘用车零售 −20.9%、1–7 月固定资产投资 −6.7%、新房价格 −3.2%;8 月铝棒开工率预估回落至约 56.9%;再生铝开工率停滞于 49.1%。

八 · 一句话观点

8月26日的三栏证据不再彼此一致:盘面上,上期以实时报价载入的夜盘高点 24,075 元经交易所文件确认分文不差,但日盘将其完整交还,收 23,760 元、较前收仅 +5 元,交还幅度 315 点——为连续第三个交易日「越过又交还」,且幅度由 100 点、185 点逐次扩大,成交 227,181 手创近四十个交易日新高而持仓减少 6,256 手;现货上,八套口径全部跑赢盘面(+230 至 +50 对 +5),基差由 −25 元摆动至 +100 元的升水,而南海减上海扩至 550 元、南储减上海扩至 270 元、中铝华南减华东扩至 240 元——三条华南价差在盘面上行之中同步扩大,由此确认华南的紧张为结构性而非华东疲弱;成本上,氧化铝开盘即为全天最高、收 2,638 元平 8月3日收盘并为序列次低,持仓在下跌中增加 14,282 手为新增空头,且价格已低于本简报所载的全部成本口径。宏观方面,7 月 PCE 于夜盘开盘前 30 分钟落地,整体 3.7% 高于预期、核心 3.3% 符合预期,联储曲线随之分裂——9 月加息概率降至 35.7% 而 12 月隐含至少加息一次升至 72.6%,美元收复 99 并录得近四周最大涨幅,由此确认本简报此前追踪的是错误合约;伦铝现货 3,227.50 美元单日收复四条均线,而库存 246,825 吨与前一日持平;伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹水域份额与收益达成一致,布伦特连续第四个交易日下跌。本期并更正本简报自身:阿卢诺特已于 8 月中旬恢复满产,上期「运行于 50%」的转载予以撤回。本简报不作任何投资建议,以上为已确认数据与其解读的分栏陈述。

九 · 今日(8月27日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 日盘能否收在 MA10(23,822.00)之上——这是今日唯一的首要判据,且它有一条明确的历史门槛:自 8月18日以来,没有任何一个交易日收在 MA10 之上。 夜盘收于 23,830 元,恰在其上 8.00 元,故今日实际上是从门槛线开盘。收在 23,822.00 之上,则连续三个交易日的「越过又交还」被终结,且六条均线收复五条;收在其下,则第四次失败成立,而交还幅度的递增序列(100 → 185 → 315)将获得第四个观测点。 同时注意 MA10 下行、MA20 上行,二者仅相距 41.50 元,数日内必将交叉或收敛——届时价格所处的一侧,比今日单日的收盘更具结构含义(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 现货能否连续第二个交易日跑赢盘面,以及 +100 元的升水能否守住。 8月26日八套口径全部跑赢(+230 至 +50 对 +5),基差单日摆动 125 元。若今日现货继续跑赢且升水扩大,则 8月25日确为单日中断,现货支撑重新成为本简报最稳定的方向性证据;若升水在一日之内再度转为贴水,则连续两个交易日的剧烈基差摆动本身说明现货定价已不稳定,其信号价值应下调(此为解读)。同时关注上海华通口径能否恢复发布,以及 SMM 华东成交升贴水能否结束连续四期的缺失。
  • ⚑ 南海减上海的 550 元、南储减上海的 270 元、中铝华南减华东的 240 元,能否同步守住。 昨日的关键结论是三条华南价差在盘面上行之中同步扩大,故华南紧张为结构性。若今日三条价差继续同步扩大,该结论进一步加固;若在现货普涨中反而收敛,则昨日的扩大可能仅是南海一地的报价滞后,应回到观察状态(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝能否守住 7月31日的序列最低收盘 2,629 元,以及持仓的增减方向。 AO2610 收 2,638 元仅高于该位 9 元,开盘即为全天最高,且持仓在下跌中增加 14,282 手、夜盘再增 8,389 手。跌破 2,629 元即为本序列新低,其信号意义大于点数;而持仓若在下跌中继续增加,则新增空头的判断成立,下方成本支撑的失效将被进一步确认。 同时注意:两套成本口径(2,718 元与 2,826.21 元)现均高于盘面价格,因此「成本支撑」在今日之前已不再是一个可用的下方论据(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 库存:今日 SMM 周四社会库存与明日(8月28日)上期所周报及新一期出库量。 社会库存已连续第六次下降至 86.0 万吨。若周四印记录得第七次下降,则去库序列延续;而更关键的是出库量——若出库量随之回升,则去库性质由到货驱动转为消费驱动,其价格支撑显著增强;若继续持平或下降,则上期的限定仍然成立。 伦铝库存在八个印记仅变动一次之后,今日是否恢复变动,同样值得跟踪。
  • ⚑ 伦铝能否守住刚刚以极小幅度收复的 MA10(3,224.95)与 MA30(3,226.03),并进一步挑战 MA20(3,249.25)。 现货 3,227.50 美元高于前两条仅 2.55 与 1.47 美元,一个平静的交易日即可将其交还。 收复 MA20 则六条均线收复五条、结构性转多;跌回 3,208.00(MA5)之下,则 8月26日的反弹属单日现象。同时注意 Westmetall 与 TradingEconomics 两套口径在水平上已收敛至 2.75 美元而在符号上仍相反,今日应观察二者是否重新同向。
  • ⚑ 沃什明日演讲之前,12 月口径而非 9 月口径的变化,以及美元能否站稳 99。 本期已确认美元跟踪的是 12 月这一档:12 月隐含至少加息一次已由 70.6% 升至 72.6%,而美元同步收复 99 并录得近四周最大涨幅。因此今日的观察点是:若 12 月口径继续上行而美元站稳 99 之上,则宏观对铝的压制正在重建;若 12 月口径回落而美元跌回 99 之下,则 8月26日的美元反弹属 PCE 单日反应。 沃什演讲为明日美东上午约 10:00(北京时间周五晚间),沪铝在其之前仅剩今日一个完整交易日与周五日盘。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This edition is written on the morning of Thursday, August 27, at the open of the SHFE day session.
  • ⚑ Every August 26 SHFE, alumina and cast-alloy price, settlement, volume and open-interest figure below is the August 26 trading day (August 25 night plus August 26 day, combined) as published by the exchange.
  • ⚑ The August 26 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 to 01:00 on August 27, belonging to the August 27 trading day) has CLOSED and is carried here as a completed session, not as the live quote the prior edition had to use.
  • ⚑ TWO METHOD EXTENSIONS THIS EDITION: the SHFE close series is extended to 109 trading days (March 20 to August 26), and the LME cash series is extended from 43 sessions to 165 (January 2 to August 26) — so LME MA60 IS COMPUTED FOR THE FIRST TIME in this brief. Every MA5 through MA60 figure below, on all four price series, is exact.
  • ⊘ NOT retrievable this edition: SMM’s A00 absolute quote, SMM’s regional transaction premia and SMM’s sentiment indices (a FOURTH consecutive edition, behind a login wall); SMM’s August 27 Thursday social inventory, not published at the time of writing; SMM’s August 26 alumina spot assessments; the Shanghai Huatong spot caliber, absent from the August 26 cnal table; and SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 26.

⚑ SHFE AL2610: 24,075 is confirmed by the exchange — and it was handed back in full

  • AL2610 (most-traded): open 23,730, high 24,075, low 23,720, close 23,760, settlement 23,870, prior settlement 23,800. Close versus prior settlement −40 (−0.17%); close-to-close +5 (+0.02%); settlement versus prior settlement +70 (+0.29%). Volume 227,181 lots (from 175,448, +51,733, +29.5%); open interest 262,191 (from 268,447, −6,256).
  • ⚑ The night-session high of 24,075 that the prior edition carried as a LIVE quote is confirmed by the exchange file as the August 26 trading day’s high — to the yuan. That edition flagged it as provisional and said it would be restated today. It needed no restatement.
  • ⚑ But the day session did not hold it: the close of 23,760 is five points above the prior close, and the session’s high sits 315 points above the close.
  • ⚑ THAT IS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION of clearing a ceiling intraday and surrendering it by the bell, and the surrender has TRIPLED in three sessions: 100 points on August 24, 185 on August 25, 315 on August 26. Each attempt reached higher — 23,865, then 23,940, then 24,075 — and each gave back more (derivation).
  • ⚑ And the settlement caliber says the opposite for a THIRD straight session: settlement 23,870 is 48.00 ABOVE MA10 and 6.50 ABOVE MA20 — both cleared. The close of 23,760 is 62.00 and 103.50 BELOW them — both lost. Same session, same board, two exchange-published numbers, opposite conclusions. This brief will not average them.
  • ⚑ Volume of 227,181 is the highest in at least forty sessions, and open interest FELL 6,256 on a marginally higher close — heavy turnover that closed existing positions rather than opening new ones (interpretation).
  • AL2609 closed 23,730, settlement 23,860, volume 55,084, OI 79,325 (−16,666). AL2611 closed 23,750, settlement 23,850, OI 112,692 (+6,236). AL2612 23,720; AL2701 23,670; AL2702 23,680; AL2703 23,705; AL2704 23,725; AL2705 23,710; AL2706 23,715; AL2707 23,735; AL2708 23,805.
  • ⚑ The roll advances: AL2611’s open interest of 112,692 now exceeds AL2609’s 79,325 by 33,367. Complex volume 373,185 lots (from 315,374, +18.3%); complex open interest 601,527 (−7,990).

⚑ Moving averages: the two near averages are now moving in OPPOSITE directions

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,717.00 (exact, up from 23,700.00). The close is 43.00 ABOVE it, held for a THIRD consecutive session.
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,822.00 (exact), DOWN 53.00 from August 25’s 23,875.00 as August 17’s 24,035 drops out. The close is 62.00 below — against 120.00 on August 25. ⚑ But the narrowing was not produced by the price rising; the average came down to meet it (derivation).
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,863.50 (exact), UP 17.00 from 23,846.50 as July 28’s 23,215 drops out. The close is 103.50 below — against 91.50 on August 25. That gap keeps widening.
  • ⚑ MA30 = 23,649.17; MA40 = 23,492.25; MA60 = 23,604.25 (all exact). The close is above them by 110.83, 267.75 and 155.75.
  • ⚑ Four of six averages remain reclaimed (MA5, MA30, MA40, MA60) for a THIRD consecutive session — a count that has now survived a bearish outside day, a failed breakout and a +5 close unchanged. That is a good demonstration of why this brief reports distances alongside counts.
  • ⚑ The price is bracketed between a FALLING MA10 (23,822.00) and a RISING MA20 (23,863.50) that are only 41.50 apart. They will cross or converge within days (derivation).
  • ⚑ The retracement of the August 3-to-12 advance IMPROVES from 82.9% to 82.2% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; the close sits 115 above the launch) (derivation).
  • ⊘ But the 20-session close percentile FELL on a HIGHER close, 36.8% → 23.7%. The reason is the window’s floor: July 29’s 23,420 dropped out and the range tightened from 23,420–24,290 to 23,595–24,290. A percentile that falls while the price rises is a statement about the comparison set, not about the price, and it is reported here rather than quietly suppressed (derivation).
  • 60-session close percentile 59.5% (range 22,445–24,655), up from 55.9% as June 3’s 24,930 leaves the window (derivation).

Interpretation: three attempts, three give-backs, each larger than the last

  • ⚑ A market that keeps extending its reach and keeps widening its retreat is describing SUPPLY ARRIVING ABOVE THE MARKET, not demand failing beneath it (interpretation).
  • ⚑ A settlement above both averages and a close below both means the day’s volume-weighted price was above them and the day’s last price was below them, which locates the selling in the final hour — and that is consistent with every other column in this edition (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The single primary test today is MA10 at 23,822.00: no session has closed above it since August 18.

⚑ Alumina AO2610: it opened at its high, and then it broke

  • AO2610: open 2,677, high 2,677, low 2,635, close 2,638, settlement 2,655, prior settlement 2,691. Close versus prior settlement −53 (−1.97%); close-to-close −38 (−1.42%). Volume 275,656 (+59,719, +27.7%); open interest 264,269 (+14,282).
  • ⚑ The open WAS the high (2,677) — every subsequent print of the session was below the first (derivation).
  • ⚑ The close of 2,638 TIES the August 3 close exactly and is the SECOND-LOWEST close of the entire 109-session series retrieved; only July 31’s 2,629 is lower, by 9.
  • ⚑ Below all six averages for a second session, and the distances have roughly tripled: MA5 2,673.00 (−35.00), MA10 2,678.70 (−40.70), MA20 2,678.40 (−40.40), MA30 2,692.23 (−54.23), MA40 2,701.35 (−63.35), MA60 2,756.52 (−118.52).
  • ⚑ And the internals flipped sides: open interest ROSE 14,282 on the fall, where August 25’s decline came with open interest DOWN 21,287. Length leaving has become shorts arriving (interpretation). Complex open interest +46,261 to 541,221.
  • ⚑ The price is now BELOW EVERY COST CALIBER THIS BRIEF CARRIES: 80 below the July national weighted-average full cost of 2,718, and 188.21 below a second caliber at 2,826.21 which comes with a July industry average profit of −64.21/mt (losses narrowing). ⊘ The two cost calibers are listed, NOT reconciled — but under either one, the board is beneath cost.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the alumina-to-aluminium ratio falls to 11.10% (2,638 ÷ 23,760), from 11.27%.
  • ⚑ The curve remains monotonic contango but the WHOLE curve shifted down: AO2609 2,630 / 2610 2,638 / 2611 2,660 / 2612 2,682 / 2701 2,694 / 2702 2,714 / 2703 2,736 / 2704 2,753 / 2705 2,773 / 2706 2,801 / 2707 2,820 / 2708 2,834 (against 2,667–2,861 yesterday).
  • ⚑ Night session (CLOSED, 01:00 August 27): open 2,635, high 2,642, low 2,630, last 2,632, VWAP 2,634.19; volume 66,321; open interest 272,658 (+8,389) — building AGAIN at a lower price.
  • ⊘ Correction: prior editions carried “2,621 (July 31 close)”. July 31’s CLOSE was 2,629; 2,621 was that day’s LOW.

⚑ Cast aluminium alloy AD2610: four of six averages reclaimed, discount narrows a third time

  • AD2610: open 23,150, high 23,385, low 23,065, close 23,130, settlement 23,215, prior settlement 23,145. Close versus prior settlement −15 (−0.06%); close-to-close +50 (+0.22%). Volume 7,479; open interest 14,450 (−2,542).
  • ⚑ Four of six averages reclaimed, UP FROM TWO — and the one gained is MA10: MA5 23,042.00 (+88.00), MA10 23,099.50 (+30.50, reclaimed as the average fell from 23,151.00), MA40 23,097.75 (+32.25), MA60 23,099.75 (+30.25) all held; only MA20 23,274.50 (−144.50) and MA30 23,179.33 (−49.33) remain above (all exact).
  • ⚑ Derivation: the AD2610-minus-AL2610 discount narrows a THIRD consecutive session, 770 → 675 → 630. Cast alloy has beaten primary on the board for three sessions running.
  • ⚑ Night session (CLOSED): open 23,160, high 23,250, low 23,030, last 23,220 (+90 on the August 26 close), VWAP 23,153.75; volume 3,480; open interest 13,225 (−1,225).

⚑ LME: from below every average to four of six reclaimed, in one session

  • Westmetall official caliber, August 26: cash settlement $3,227.50 (+$39.50, +1.24%); three-month $3,239.00 (+$32.50, +1.01%); contango narrows from −$18.50 to −$11.50; stocks 246,825 mt, UNCHANGED from August 25.
  • ⚑ LME cash moving averages (exact, 165 sessions, January 2 to August 26): MA5 $3,208.00 (cash above by $19.50), MA10 $3,224.95 (+$2.55), MA20 $3,249.25 (−$21.75), MA30 $3,226.03 (+$1.47), MA40 $3,201.76 (+$25.74), MA60 $3,263.13 (−$35.63).
  • ⚑ METHOD: the cash series is extended from the 43 sessions of the prior edition to 165, so MA60 is COMPUTED FOR THE FIRST TIME. ⚑ That extension also confirms the prior edition retrospectively: August 25’s MA60 was $3,272.62, so cash at $3,188.00 genuinely was below EVERY average — including the one that edition could not compute.
  • ⚑ MA5 and MA40, both lost on August 25, were retaken outright on August 26. But MA10 and MA30 are held by only $2.55 and $1.47, and MA20 remains unrecovered.
  • ⚑ Derivation: cash at $3,227.50 sits $45.50 above the run’s low of $3,182.00 and $145.50 below the August 11 high of $3,373.00.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the SHFE-LME ratio CONTRACTS from 7.4514 to 7.3617 (23,760 ÷ 3,227.50) — the first contraction after two expansions; sequence 7.3474 → 7.3901 → 7.4514 → 7.3617. London rose 1.24% against Shanghai’s 0.02%.
  • ⊘ The caliber gap CONVERGED IN LEVEL while still disagreeing IN SIGN: TradingEconomics reads $3,224.75 for August 26 (−$18.75, −0.58%; monthly +1.70%, yearly +23.77%) against Westmetall’s cash at $3,227.50 (+1.24%) — $2.75 apart, having been $55.50 apart on August 25. ⊘ And a third caliber: cnal carries LME 3M at $3,229.50 (−$14.50) for August 26, opposite in sign to Westmetall’s 3M at +$32.50. Three calibers, two signs, all listed, NONE reconciled.

⚑ August 26 spot: ALL EIGHT calibers beat the board, and the streak was interrupted for exactly one session

  • ⚑ CNAL caliber, August 26: Changjiang 23,860 (+110, range 23,840–23,880); Shanghai spot 23,860 (+130, range 23,840–23,880); Nanhai 24,410 (+220, range 24,360–24,460); Guangdong Nanchu 24,130 (+230, range 24,100–24,160). ⊘ Shanghai Huatong is NOT displayed in the August 26 table — absent for the second time in three sessions; August 25’s 23,830 is not carried forward.
  • ⚑ Chalco producer quotation, August 26 — ALL FOUR REGIONS RETRIEVED, the first complete set in four editions: East China 23,870 (+130), South China 24,110 (+160), Southwest 23,930 (+100), Central China 23,790 (+50).
  • ⚑ Derivation: the eight absolute spot calibers rose by +230 / +220 / +160 / +130 / +130 / +110 / +100 / +50, ALL MORE than the board’s close-to-close of +5, by 45 to 225 points — the widest outperformance of this run. Not one caliber lagged, the exact inverse of August 25.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Shanghai spot minus the board’s close swings from −25 (August 25) to +100 (August 26), a 125-point move back into premium; Chalco East China goes from 15 below the close to 110 above. That is the second sixty-plus-point basis swing in as many sessions, and this one is bullish.
  • ⚑ Derived spreads: Nanhai−Shanghai 550, the run’s WIDEST, from 460 (sequence 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450 → 460 → 550); Nanchu−Shanghai 270 (from 170); Changjiang−Shanghai 0 (from 20); Chalco South−East 240 (from 150–160); Chalco Southwest−East 60; Chalco Central−East −80.
  • ADC12 at 23,900/mt (SMM, August 20 weekly caliber, restated); overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190/mt, Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090, Thailand FOB Laem Chabang about $3,070; African ingot $2,850/mt (all restated).
  • Alumina: China spot about 2,681.62/mt (SMM composite, restated); ex-China $363–364 FOB East Australia (restated). ⊘ Neither August 26 print was retrievable.
  • ⊘ SMM’s A00 absolute quote and regional transaction premia are unretrievable for a FOURTH consecutive edition (login-walled); restated at August 20 — A00 23,600 (range 23,580–23,620); South +160 / East 0 / Central −60.

Interpretation: yesterday’s reversal was itself reversed, and the South China question is settled

  • ⚑ This brief said yesterday that four sessions of spot strength had “ended by full reversal.” That was too strong. On August 26 all eight calibers reversed back, and by the widest margin of the run. The honest reading is that August 25 was a ONE-SESSION INTERRUPTION, not the end of a regime.
  • ⚑ And the South China question has been answered by the market itself. For two editions this brief asked whether the widening Nanhai−Shanghai spread reflected South China tightness or East China weakness, and it named the test: narrowing on a rising board would mean the latter. The board rose and all three South China spreads WIDENED — Nanhai−Shanghai to 550, Nanchu−Shanghai to 270, and Chalco’s own South-minus-East to 240, a third independent caliber agreeing. South China is not cheap-and-firm; it is tight, and the tightness survived a session in which every region rose. This is the cleanest fundamental read in the edition.
  • ⚑ And 23,870 is three different things at once: the August 26 settlement, the night session’s high, and Chalco’s East China quotation. Three independent calibers landing on one number, 6.50 above MA20 (derivation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ The LME answer is a non-answer, and that is itself information

  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,825 mt on August 26 — UNCHANGED from August 25. Yesterday’s watchlist asked for the direction of the SECOND change after the 100 mt draw broke a six-session freeze. There was no second change.
  • ⚑ Derivation: across the eight prints since August 17, stocks have moved exactly once, by 100 tonnes. At the absolute low of this run, that is a warehouse neither attracting nor releasing metal.
  • ⊘ SMM’s August 27 (Thursday) domestic social inventory is not published at the time of writing. Carried at August 24: 860,000 mt, −15,000 w/w from August 20, a SIXTH consecutive draw.
  • ⚑ Sequence (restated), in thousands of tonnes: 1,006 (July 23) → 979 → 953 → 958 (August 3) → 933 → 917 → 898 → 886 → 875 (August 20) → 860 (August 24); cumulative draw 146,000 mt from July 23.
  • SHFE weekly warehouse stock, August 17–21: aluminium 403,797 mt, −18,300 mt w/w (restated; next update TOMORROW, August 28).
  • ⊘ SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 26 are not retrievable. Cast alloy registered warrants restated at August 24’s 20,208 mt (+241).
  • Aluminium billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500); weekly ingot outflow 123,200 mt (−1,000 w/w); cast alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second consecutive build) (all restated).
  • ⊘ The inventory calibers have different windows and coverage; this brief neither sums them nor reconciles them.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ There is no new domestic hard inventory data this edition, so the prior edition’s two qualifications stand unchanged: the destock must still be read alongside weekly outflow, and outflow at 123,200 mt is DOWN 1,000 w/w. Inventory falling while outflow does not rise remains an ARRIVAL-LED destock.
  • ⚑ Tomorrow, August 28, brings both the SHFE weekly report and a new outflow print — the test of that qualification, and it lands on the same day as Warsh.
  • ⚑ The contrast worth noting is between a silent inventory column and a very loud spot column. On a day with no new inventory data, eight spot calibers beat the board by the widest margin of the run and pushed the basis to +100. That locates the marginal tightness in the REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION of deliverable metal rather than in the national total (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ PCE landed 30 minutes before the night session opened — and the Fed curve SPLIT

  • ⚑ US July PCE (released 08:30 ET on August 26, which is 20:30 Beijing — THIRTY MINUTES BEFORE the SHFE night session opened, so the night session traded it and the day session did not): headline 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, unchanged from June and a three-year high; +0.2% m/m. Core PCE 3.3% y/y and +0.2% m/m, both in line. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was unchanged in July. Q2 GDP unrevised at 1.5%.
  • ⚑ Investing.com Fed rate monitor (August 26, 20:25 EDT): September 16 FOMC hold 64.3% / hike 35.7%. Against 63.0% / 37.0% yesterday — hike odds fall a further 1.3pp, a SECOND consecutive dovish repricing.
  • ⚑ October 28: hold 48.0% / one hike 42.9% / two 9.0%. A hold remains MODAL, but its margin narrows from 5.5pp to 5.1pp (derivation).
  • ⚑ December 9: hold 27.4% / one 45.1% / two 23.6% / three 3.9%; implied at-least-one-hike RISES from 70.6% to 72.6% (derivation).
  • ⚑ That is: the near end turned dovish and the far end turned hawkish. This brief has not previously recorded that split.
  • ⚑ The dollar RECLAIMED 99, ending five consecutive closes below it, and posted its largest daily gain in nearly four weeks — attributed by the wires to bets that the Fed will start raising rates BY YEAR END. TradingEconomics carries 99.124 on the August 27 quote (−0.02%; monthly −2.38%, yearly +1.34%). ⊘ The exact August 26 close was not separately retrieved; the direction is stated on the source’s own wording.
  • Gold $4,593.74 (−1.38%), giving back the whole of August 25’s +1.00%; silver $68.40 (−0.29%); December gold opened $4,715.70 and fell back below $4,700 (all secondary).

Interpretation: the five-session dollar puzzle is solved, and this brief was reading the wrong contract

  • ⚑ For five editions this brief has said rate expectations were not transmitting to the dollar, and it offered two hypotheses in turn — “decoupled,” then “asymmetric and muted.” Today’s data says both were wrong, and wrong in the same place: THE WRONG CONTRACT.
  • ⚑ Replay three sessions. August 24: September hike odds rose 3.4pp, dollar +0.19%. August 25: September fell 5.4pp, dollar −0.04%. August 26: September fell a further 1.3pp while DECEMBER’s implied at-least-one-hike ROSE 2.0pp — and the dollar posted its biggest gain in four weeks and reclaimed 99.
  • ⚑ Read against the December strip rather than the September headline, the dollar has been coherent throughout. The wire phrase “by year end” IS the December caliber. This brief therefore retires “asymmetric and muted” in favour of something simpler: it was watching the wrong number (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The practical consequence is that for aluminium the relevant Fed figure is the DECEMBER STRIP, not the September headline — and the December strip has now moved against the metal for two consecutive sessions (interpretation).

⚑ Geopolitics: the most substantive Hormuz reopening framework in six months

  • ⚑ On August 26 the IRGC said Iran and Oman have agreed each country’s share of the Strait of Hormuz’s WATERS and each country’s share of its REVENUES, together with a temporary maritime route whose entry runs through Iranian territorial waters and part of whose exit does likewise.
  • ⊘ The qualification is carried in full: the waterway does NOT fully reopen until Washington honours its commitments under the June interim peace deal — which has LAPSED.
  • ⚑ Brent fell a FOURTH consecutive session. TradingEconomics carries $87.39 on the August 27 quote (−0.51%); WTI $80.78 on August 26 (−1.92%). ⊘ Calibers differ; the August 26 morning note carried Brent $86.80 and WTI $80.76.
  • ⚑ Canada’s retaliation on about $20B of US goods takes effect September 8, DOUBLING steel and aluminium counter-tariffs to 50% and reaching dairy, furniture, apparel, consoles and smartphones (secondary).
  • ⚑ Restated and retained: Bessent’s “Operation Economic Outcast” has extended secondary-sanctions categories to shipping and vessels, but named no country and set no deadline.

Clock

  • ⚑ Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair is TOMORROW, Friday August 28, about 10:00 ET — 19 days before the September 16–17 FOMC. The symposium runs August 27–29, theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
  • ⚑ Before he speaks, SHFE trades one full session today plus Friday’s day session.
  • Restated: the July 29 FOMC held at 3.50%–3.75% with three regional presidents dissenting for a hike. China’s August LPR held at 3.00% and 3.50% for a fifteenth consecutive month.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The Hormuz framework is unambiguously bearish for aluminium, and it is a SUPPLY-SIDE bearish development wearing a risk-premium-removal costume. A reopening strait means Gulf LNG resumes, which means Gulf smelters restart — and the IAI put Gulf July output 44% below a year earlier. That hole may refill faster than EGA’s own Q1 2027 guidance assumes (interpretation).
  • ⚑ A fourth consecutive crude decline removes cost support and risk premium together; and Canada doubling its aluminium counter-tariff to 50% adds friction to North American trade flow on the demand side. Both point the same way (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⊘ CORRECTION: Alunorte is NOT running at 50%

  • ⊘ This brief’s August 26 edition restated “Alunorte running at 50% on constrained gas supply” in its fundamentals column. That has been out of date for over a week and is WITHDRAWN.
  • ⚑ What actually happened: Brazil’s ANP approved Alunorte as a SELF-IMPORTER of natural gas and a temporary terminal-access agreement was reached with supplier CELBA, and the 6.3 mtpa refinery began ramping back to FULL capacity in mid-August. Lost production is put at 100,000–120,000 tonnes and the Q3 2026 impact on the Bauxite & Alumina segment at $75–100 million.
  • ⚑ The consequence has to be said plainly: Alunorte is no longer a live subtraction from alumina supply and must not be counted as one. On a day alumina printed the second-lowest close of its series, that is precisely the kind of stale bullish carry that would have misled the reader.

⚑ Alumina: the price is now below every cost caliber

  • ⚑ AO2610 closed 2,638 — 80 below the July national weighted-average full cost of 2,718, and 188.21 below a second caliber putting July full cost at 2,826.21 with a July industry average profit of −64.21/mt and losses narrowing. ⊘ The two cost calibers are listed and NOT reconciled; under either, the board sits beneath cost.
  • ⚑ For Chinese smelters that is a falling input cost and a widening margin; for the metal it is a cost floor that has stopped being a floor (interpretation).
  • ⊘ Secondary, restated: Guinea tri-hydrate bauxite transaction prices have fallen from historical highs to about $70/dry tonne, a structural loosening (no specific date attached; listed only).
  • China July alumina output 7.835 mt, +5.2% y/y; national operating rate 74.33%; total inventory 7.245 mt (all restated).
  • ⚑ Restated: Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cuts about 1.2 mtpa of alumina (−40%) from October 2026 — alumina only, its smelters run at full capacity. Qatar’s Qatalum remains halted.
  • Nanshan Aluminium International H1: alumina volumes +15%, net income ex-items $62.682m and −74.8% y/y on a 39.5% lower average price (restated).

⚑ Restated: the two ends of the supply arithmetic

  • China July primary output 3.90 mt, +3.8% y/y; ex-China −6.7% y/y; overseas daily average +1.6% m/m; IAI global July output 6.16 mt, −1.7% y/y (all restated).
  • IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 output 602,000 mt, −47% y/y; EGA’s Al Taweelah has restarted 18% of 1,262 pots and expects prewar output in Q1 2027; July aluminium-water ratio 78.3%; July ingot casting −15.1% y/y (all restated).
  • July prebaked anode exports 211,700 mt, +21.86% y/y and −24.40% m/m; Indonesia 95,400 mt (45%), Norway 26,900 mt (13%), Malaysia 22,700 mt (11%); average price $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m (restated).
  • ⊘ The operating-capacity caliber conflict WIDENS: secondary sources give mid-February 2026 total capacity 45.402 mt, operating 44.896 mt, utilisation 98.9%; mid-June utilisation 98.43% on weekly output of 872,300 mt; other sources give operating capacity about 45.19–45.40 mt at 97.7% utilisation against a 45.43 mt compliance ceiling; and this brief previously carried about 46.29 mt of month-end capacity. Four calibers with different definitions, listed and NOT reconciled. Their only shared implication is that domestic supply is rigid.

Demand: all restated

  • July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% (all seven subsectors contracting); July passenger car retail −20.9% y/y with NEV exports +147.8%; August 1–16 NEV passenger retail about 399,000 units, −15% y/y, 63.6% share (⊘ secondary); January–July fixed asset investment −6.7%; new home prices −3.2% y/y; aluminium processing operating rate 60.0%; secondary aluminium 49.1%; July billet operating rate 58.3% with SMM’s August estimate about 56.9%; July scrap imports about 119,600 mt, −10.1% m/m.
  • Four export series (restated): July unwrought aluminium and semis 643,000 mt, +18.6% y/y and −9.6% m/m, January–July 4.04 mt and +16.7% y/y; foil 118,800 mt, −9.3% m/m, January–July 802,000 mt; plate/sheet/strip 321,900 mt, −9.1% m/m and +24% y/y, January–July 2,111,300 mt; prebaked anode −24.40% m/m. ⚑ The qualification stands: July foil and plate/sheet/strip both ran ABOVE their own January–July monthly averages of 114,571 and 301,614 mt.
  • Japan’s three major ports 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010; Canada’s H1 aluminium exports to the US −25.03%; CBAM has covered aluminium since January 1, 2026 with the roughly +47.5% default-value uplift still in force (all restated).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ There are two substantive changes in the fundamentals this edition and they point in opposite directions. One is the correction: Alunorte is at full capacity, so overseas alumina subtractions lose a 6.3 mtpa name. The other is the price: alumina is now below every cost caliber. Together they mean the alumina decline is NOT a supply accident but ordinary clearing under ample supply — which makes it more likely to continue than to rebound (interpretation).
  • ⚑ And the Gulf reopening pathway (Hormuz framework → LNG → smelter restarts), once it starts, will run faster than EGA’s own Q1 2027 guidance. This brief offers no estimate of that timetable and states only its direction: MORE ex-China primary supply (interpretation).
  • ⚑ There is no new demand data this edition, so no new demand judgement is made.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ August 26: all eight calibers beat the board, by the widest margin of the run

  • ⚑ Ranked by gain (August 26): Guangdong Nanchu +230 > Nanhai +220 > Chalco South China +160 > Shanghai spot +130 = Chalco East China +130 > Changjiang +110 > Chalco Southwest +100 > Chalco Central China +50 > AL2610 close-to-close +5.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the outperformance runs 45 to 225 points, and not one of the eight lagged — the exact inverse of August 25.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Shanghai spot 23,860 is 100 above the board’s close of 23,760; Chalco East China 23,870 is 110 above. The basis swings from −25 to +100.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Nanhai−Shanghai 550 (run-widest); Nanchu−Shanghai 270; Chalco South−East 240. All three South China spreads widened on a RISING board.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Shanghai spot at 23,860 sits 38.00 ABOVE MA10 (23,822.00) and only 3.50 below MA20 (23,863.50) — the physical price is itself at the top of the board’s average band.
  • ⊘ SMM’s regional transaction premia and sentiment indices are unretrievable for a FOURTH consecutive edition; restated at August 20 — South +160, East 0, Central −60; East China shipment 3.2 / purchasing 3.16, Central China shipment 3.1 / purchasing 2.9.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The spot column gives a strong reading this edition, and the strongest of the run. Eight independently compiled calibers, none lagging, with a median outperformance around 125 points.
  • ⚑ Its most valuable feature is not the size but that it simultaneously answers the South China structural question. If the widening spreads had come from East China weakness, they should have converged on a day the whole country rose. They widened instead — so the cause is South China’s own scarcity of deliverable metal (interpretation).
  • ⚑ East China moves from a watch position to a confirming one. Chalco’s East China quotation went from 15 below the board to 110 above, and Shanghai spot from a 25 discount to a 100 premium. SMM’s East China transaction premium turning from parity to a genuine premium remains the single most direct confirmation of demand-side participation this brief is waiting for — and it has now been unretrievable for four consecutive editions (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors

  • ⚑ NEW: all eight spot calibers beat the board (+230 to +50 against +5), by 45 to 225 points — the widest outperformance of this run; August 25’s full reversal lasted exactly one session.
  • ⚑ NEW: the Shanghai spot basis swings from −25 to +100, a 125-point move into premium; Chalco East China goes from 15 below the board to 110 above.
  • ⚑ NEW: Nanhai−Shanghai widens to 550, the run’s widest; Nanchu−Shanghai to 270; Chalco South−East to 240 — three South China spreads widening TOGETHER on a rising board.
  • ⚑ NEW: the prior edition’s own test condition is met, confirming South China tightness as STRUCTURAL rather than East China weakness (derivation).
  • ⚑ NEW: Chalco’s four regional quotations were all retrieved and all raised (East +130, South +160, Southwest +100, Central +50) — the first complete set in four editions.
  • ⚑ NEW: Shanghai spot at 23,860 sits 38.00 above MA10 — the physical price has itself cleared a board average the futures close has not.
  • ⚑ NEW: LME cash $3,227.50 (+$39.50, +1.24%) goes from below every average to reclaiming MA5, MA10, MA30 and MA40 in one session.
  • ⚑ NEW: the LME contango narrows from −$18.50 to −$11.50.
  • ⚑ NEW: LME cash sits $45.50 above the run’s low of $3,182.00 — the decline since August 20 has not made a new low.
  • ⚑ NEW: the prior edition’s live night quote of 24,075 is confirmed EXACT by the exchange file, validating that caliber’s reliability.
  • ⚑ NEW: 24,075 is the highest print since August 17, clearing MA10 by 253.00 and MA20 by 211.50 intraday.
  • ⚑ NEW: the August 26 settlement of 23,870 is 48.00 above MA10 and 6.50 above MA20 — on the settlement caliber both averages were cleared.
  • ⚑ NEW: MA10 fell 53.00 to 23,822.00, narrowing the gap to the close from 120.00 to 62.00.
  • ⚑ NEW: MA5 at 23,717.00 was held for a THIRD consecutive session, by 43.00.
  • ⚑ NEW: the retracement of the August 3–12 advance improves from 82.9% to 82.2%.
  • ⚑ NEW: the 60-session close percentile rises from 55.9% to 59.5%.
  • ⚑ NEW: AD2610 goes from two of six averages reclaimed to FOUR, taking back MA10; and its discount to AL2610 narrows a third consecutive session (770 → 675 → 630).
  • ⚑ NEW: AD2610 added a further 90 overnight to 23,220 — the alloy end keeps strengthening.
  • ⚑ NEW: September hike odds fall 37.0% → 35.7%, a SECOND consecutive dovish repricing; October’s hold remains modal.
  • ⚑ NEW: core PCE at 3.3% y/y and +0.2% m/m came in line — no upside surprise on the Fed’s preferred core measure.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: SMM’s August 24 social inventory at 860,000 mt, a sixth consecutive draw, 146,000 mt below July 23 and the lowest level of the run.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: SHFE weekly stock 403,797 mt, −18,300 w/w, accelerating from −13,642 the prior week.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: IAI Gulf July output 293,000 mt, −44% y/y; EGA H1 −47%; ex-China July −6.7% y/y; global −1.7% y/y.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cuts about 1.2 mtpa of alumina from October; Qatalum remains halted.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: domestic operating capacity sits near the compliance ceiling at 97.7%–98.9% utilisation (⊘ four calibers) — supply rigidity is unambiguous.
  • RESTATED: July aluminium-water ratio 78.3% and ingot casting −15.1% y/y keep suppressing ingot formation.
  • RESTATED: Japan’s three major ports at 201,000 mt, the lowest since April 2010.
  • RESTATED: prebaked anode export prices averaged $1,031.80/mt, +12.34% m/m, raising carbon-anode cost everywhere.

Bearish factors

  • ⚑ NEW: August 26 was a THIRD consecutive clear-then-fail, and the give-back widened from 100 and 185 to 315 points.
  • ⚑ NEW: the close of 23,760 is just +5 on the prior close while the session high sat 315 above it — the entire night advance was surrendered in the day session.
  • ⚑ NEW: the close remains 62.00 below MA10 and 103.50 below MA20; no session has closed above MA10 since August 18.
  • ⚑ NEW: MA20 rose to 23,863.50 and its gap to the close widened further, 91.50 → 103.50.
  • ⚑ NEW: volume of 227,181 is a forty-session high while open interest FELL 6,256 — heavy turnover closing positions, not opening them.
  • ⚑ NEW: the 20-session close percentile falls from 36.8% to 23.7%, the low quarter of the month’s range.
  • ⚑ NEW: night-session open interest fell for a SECOND consecutive night (−7,634 after −5,018) — the advance is covering, not fresh length.
  • ⚑ NEW: the night high of 23,870 stopped just 6.50 above MA20 and the close of 23,830 fell back 33.50 below it.
  • ⚑ NEW: alumina AO2610 closed 2,638 having OPENED AT ITS HIGH — not one print of the session was above the first.
  • ⚑ NEW: 2,638 ties the August 3 close and is the second-lowest close of the 109-session series, only 9 above July 31’s 2,629.
  • ⚑ NEW: alumina open interest ROSE 14,282 on the fall — fresh shorts where yesterday was length leaving; complex OI +46,261.
  • ⚑ NEW: alumina now trades below EVERY cost caliber this brief carries (80 below 2,718; 188.21 below 2,826.21) — the cost floor has stopped being a floor.
  • ⚑ NEW: the alumina-to-aluminium ratio falls to 11.10% from 11.27%; the whole forward curve shifted down (2,630–2,834 against 2,667–2,861).
  • ⚑ NEW: alumina open interest built a further 8,389 overnight as the price fell again to 2,632.
  • ⚑ NEW: December’s implied at-least-one-hike rises 70.6% → 72.6%; October’s hold margin narrows from 5.5pp to 5.1pp.
  • ⚑ NEW: the dollar reclaimed 99, ending five consecutive closes below it, and posted its biggest daily gain in nearly four weeks.
  • ⚑ NEW: this brief now identifies the dollar as tracking the DECEMBER strip rather than September — and the December strip has moved against aluminium for two consecutive sessions (interpretation).
  • ⚑ NEW: July headline PCE at 3.7% y/y beat the 3.6% expected and holds a three-year high, supporting the year-end hike narrative.
  • ⚑ NEW: gold at $4,593.74 (−1.38%) gave back the whole of the prior session’s gain — precious metals read the same data bearishly.
  • ⚑ NEW: Iran and Oman agreed shares of Hormuz’s waters and revenues plus a temporary route — the most substantive reopening framework since February, pointing at faster Gulf smelter restarts.
  • ⚑ NEW: Brent fell a fourth consecutive session, removing cost support and risk premium together.
  • ⚑ NEW: Canada doubles steel and aluminium counter-tariffs to 50% from September 8, raising North American trade friction.
  • ⊘ NEW (CORRECTION): Alunorte returned to FULL capacity in mid-August — overseas alumina subtractions lose a 6.3 mtpa name, and this brief’s prior restatement was a stale bullish carry, now withdrawn.
  • ⚑ NEW: LME stocks at 246,825 mt are unchanged; across eight prints they have moved exactly once, by 100 tonnes.
  • ⚑ NEW: LME MA10 and MA30 are held by only $2.55 and $1.47, while MA20 ($3,249.25) and MA60 ($3,263.13) remain unrecovered.
  • ⚑ NEW: the SHFE-LME ratio contracts from 7.4514 to 7.3617 — relative strength has moved back to London.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: weekly ingot outflow 123,200 mt, −1,000 w/w — the destock is still arrival-led rather than consumption-led.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: cast alloy ingot social inventory +2,500 mt for a second week — the alloy and primary ends keep diverging.
  • ⚑ RESTATED: China July primary output 3.90 mt (+3.8% y/y); overseas daily average +1.6% m/m; July prebaked anode exports +21.86% y/y.
  • ⊘ RESTATED: July aluminium processing PMI 42.2% with all seven subsectors contracting; July passenger car retail −20.9%; January–July FAI −6.7%; new home prices −3.2%; the August billet operating rate estimated back down to about 56.9%; secondary aluminium stalled at 49.1%.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

August 26’s three columns of evidence no longer agree: on the board, the 24,075 night high the prior edition carried as a live quote is confirmed exact by the exchange file but the day session handed it back in full, closing 23,760 for just +5 on the prior close and a 315-point give-back — a third consecutive clear-then-fail with the give-back widening from 100 to 185 to 315, on a forty-session-high volume of 227,181 and open interest DOWN 6,256; in the physical, all eight spot calibers beat the board (+230 to +50 against +5), the basis swung 125 points from −25 to a +100 premium, and Nanhai−Shanghai widened to 550, Nanchu−Shanghai to 270 and Chalco South−East to 240 — three South China spreads widening TOGETHER on a rising board, which confirms South China tightness as structural rather than East China weakness; on cost, alumina opened at its high and closed 2,638, tying the August 3 close for the second-lowest print of the series with open interest UP 14,282 on the fall as fresh shorts arrived, and it now trades below every cost caliber this brief carries. On macro, July PCE landed thirty minutes before the night session opened with headline 3.7% above the 3.6% expected and core 3.3% in line, and the Fed curve split — September hike odds to 35.7% while December’s implied at-least-one-hike rose to 72.6%, the dollar reclaiming 99 on its biggest gain in four weeks, which establishes that this brief had been tracking the wrong contract; LME cash at $3,227.50 reclaimed four averages in one session while stocks stayed unchanged; and Iran and Oman agreed shares of Hormuz’s waters and revenues as Brent fell a fourth straight session. This edition also corrects itself: Alunorte returned to full capacity in mid-August and the prior edition’s “running at 50%” is withdrawn. This brief makes no investment recommendation; the above separates confirmed data from its interpretation throughout.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 27) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether the day session can CLOSE above MA10 at 23,822.00 — the single primary test, and it carries an explicit historical threshold: no session has closed above MA10 since August 18. The night session closed at 23,830, exactly 8.00 above it, so today effectively opens ON the threshold. A close above 23,822.00 ends three consecutive clear-then-fails and takes the reclaimed averages from four of six to five; a close below establishes a fourth failure and gives the widening give-back sequence (100 → 185 → 315) a fourth observation. Note also that MA10 is falling while MA20 is rising and they are only 41.50 apart — they will cross or converge within days, and which side the price is on at that moment carries more structural meaning than any single close today (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether the physical beats the board for a second consecutive session, and whether the +100 premium holds. On August 26 all eight calibers beat it (+230 to +50 against +5) and the basis swung 125 points in a day. If the physical outperforms again and the premium widens, August 25 was indeed a one-session interruption and spot support is restored as this brief’s most stable directional evidence; if the premium flips back to a discount within a single session, then two consecutive violent basis swings say the physical pricing is itself unstable and its signal value should be marked down (interpretation). Watch also whether the Shanghai Huatong caliber resumes publication, and whether SMM’s East China transaction premium ends four consecutive editions of absence.
  • ⚑ Whether Nanhai−Shanghai at 550, Nanchu−Shanghai at 270 and Chalco South−East at 240 all hold together. Yesterday’s key result was that three South China spreads widened simultaneously on a RISING board, which is what makes the tightness structural. If all three widen again today the conclusion hardens; if they converge while spot rises broadly, yesterday’s widening may have been nothing more than a lag in Nanhai’s own quotation and the question returns to open (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether alumina holds July 31’s series-low close of 2,629, and which way open interest moves. AO2610 closed 2,638, just 9 above that level, having opened at its high, with open interest UP 14,282 on the session and a further 8,389 overnight. A break of 2,629 is a new low for the whole retrieved series and its signal value exceeds its point value; and if open interest keeps building as the price falls, the fresh-shorts reading is confirmed and the failure of the cost floor is confirmed with it. Note that BOTH cost calibers (2,718 and 2,826.21) now sit above the board, so “cost support” ceased to be an available downside argument before today even began (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Inventory: SMM’s Thursday social inventory print today, and tomorrow’s SHFE weekly report plus the new outflow figure. Social inventory has drawn for six consecutive readings to 860,000 mt. A seventh draw extends the sequence — but the outflow number matters more: if outflow rises alongside the draw, the destock changes character from arrival-led to consumption-led and its price support strengthens materially; if it stays flat or falls again, the prior edition’s qualification stands. Whether LME stocks resume moving after one change in eight prints deserves the same attention.
  • ⚑ Whether LME can hold MA10 ($3,224.95) and MA30 ($3,226.03), just reclaimed by the thinnest of margins, and press on to MA20 ($3,249.25). Cash at $3,227.50 is above the first two by only $2.55 and $1.47 — a quiet session hands them back. Reclaiming MA20 takes the count to five of six and turns the structure constructive; falling back below MA5 ($3,208.00) makes August 26’s rebound a one-session event. Note also that Westmetall and TradingEconomics have converged to $2.75 in LEVEL while still disagreeing in SIGN — watch whether they realign today.
  • ⚑ Before Warsh tomorrow: the DECEMBER strip rather than September, and whether the dollar holds 99. This edition established that the dollar tracks the year-end caliber — December’s implied at-least-one-hike rose 70.6% to 72.6% and the dollar posted its biggest gain in four weeks and reclaimed 99 on the same day. So the thing to watch is: if December keeps rising AND the dollar holds above 99, macro suppression of aluminium is being rebuilt; if December eases and the dollar falls back below 99, August 26’s dollar move was a one-day PCE reaction. Warsh speaks about 10:00 ET tomorrow (Friday evening Beijing), leaving SHFE one full session today and Friday’s day session before it.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变者;标注「此为推算」者为本简报依据已列示数据自行计算所得,并非原始来源发布之数值。本期沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金的全部移动平均线,均由上海期货交易所公布的 3月20日至 8月26日共 109 个交易日收盘序列精确计算;伦铝现货移动平均线由 1月2日至 8月26日共 165 个交易日的现货结算序列精确计算,故 MA60 于本期首次得以列示。8月26日夜盘为已完成时段,但其数值取自实时行情口径,交易所自身的结算记录将于 8月27日交易日结束后公布。SMM 8月24日社会库存为二手检索转载;SMM 8月27日社会库存于写稿时点尚未发布。SMM 的 A00 报价、分地区成交升贴水与情绪指数已连续第四期无法取得(来源需登录),相关数值继续载入 8月20日,不应视为当期数据。本期两处更正(阿卢诺特已恢复满产;7月31日氧化铝收盘为 2,629 元而非 2,621 元)及一处点位更正(8月3日沪铝最低价为 23,450 元而非 23,460 元),均以交易所公布数据或原始公司公告为据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only figures, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” are unchanged because no new data has arrived since the prior edition; items marked “(derivation)” are calculated by this brief from the data listed and were not published as such by the original source. Every moving average for SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast aluminium alloy is computed exactly from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s published close series for the 109 trading days from March 20 to August 26; LME cash moving averages are computed exactly from the 165-session cash settlement series from January 2 to August 26, which is why MA60 appears in this brief for the first time. The August 26 night session is a completed session, but its figures are taken from a real-time market feed — the exchange’s own settled record for that session publishes after the August 27 trading day closes. SMM’s August 24 social inventory print is relayed from secondary retrieval; SMM’s August 27 print was not published at the time of writing. SMM’s A00 quote, regional transaction premia and sentiment indices have been unretrievable for four consecutive editions behind a login wall, and the figures carried are August 20’s and should not be read as current. The two corrections in this edition (Alunorte back at full capacity; July 31 alumina close 2,629 rather than 2,621) and the one level correction (August 3 SHFE low 23,450 rather than 23,460) rest on exchange-published data or original company announcements.