Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

SHFE closes above its 10-day average for the first time since August 17. The night session closes at its high above every average.沪铝自 8 月 17 日以来首次收于 10 日均线上方;夜盘收于最高点,站上全部均线。

Friday, August 28, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Friday August 28 (Asia), at the open of the SHFE day session. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete August 27 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards from the exchange's own daily file; the August 27 LME cash and 3M settlements and stocks from Westmetall; the cnal spot table and Chalco's FULL four-region producer quotation for August 27; the August 27 NIGHT SESSION, which has CLOSED and is carried as a completed session; the August 27 CME FedWatch strip, in which the OCTOBER meeting crossed over; and the Russia–Ukraine escalation that displaced Hormuz as the marginal oil driver. ⚑ ONE METHOD EXTENSION: the SHFE close series is extended from 109 to 128 trading days (February 24 to August 27) across all three SHFE contracts, and the LME cash series to 166 sessions (January 2 to August 27). Every MA5–MA60 figure below, on all four price series, is exact — and this edition's method reproduces the prior edition's August 26 averages to the yuan and to the cent on all four series, which is stated here as a check rather than a claim. ⊘ STILL NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM's A00 absolute quote, SMM's regional transaction premia and SMM's shipment/purchasing sentiment indices (carried at August 20 for a FIFTH consecutive edition, behind a login wall); SMM's Thursday August 27 social inventory print, not retrievable for a SECOND consecutive edition (carried at August 24); SMM's alumina spot assessments for August 27; the Shanghai Huatong spot caliber, absent from the August 27 cnal table for the third time in four sessions; SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 27; and the SHFE weekly warehouse report for the week to August 28, which publishes after the time of writing.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE PRIMARY TEST THE PRIOR WATCHLIST SET WAS PASSED — MA10 RECLAIMED AL2610 closed 23,820, which is 24.50 ABOVE MA10 at 23,795.50. It is the first close above MA10 since August 17 and it ends SEVEN consecutive sessions below
⚑ AL2610: close 23,820, +60 (+0.25%) close-to-close Open 23,760, high 23,950, low 23,710, settlement 23,835, prior settlement 23,870. Close vs prior settlement −50 (−0.21%); settlement vs prior settlement −35 (−0.15%)
⚑ FIVE OF SIX AVERAGES RECLAIMED, UP FROM FOUR — ONLY MA20 REMAINS ABOVE MA5 23,762.00 (held by 58.00), MA10 23,795.50 (by 24.50), MA30 23,668.83 (by 151.17), MA40 23,526.50 (by 293.50), MA60 23,590.33 (by 229.67). MA20 23,874.25 is 54.25 above
⚑ AND MA20's GAP NARROWED FOR THE FIRST TIME: 103.50 → 54.25 MA20 rose 10.75 to 23,874.25 while the price rose 60. This time the price closed the gap rather than the average coming down to meet it (derivation)
⚑ FOURTH STRAIGHT CLEAR-THEN-FAIL — BUT THE GIVE-BACK NARROWED FOR THE FIRST TIME High 23,950 cleared MA20 by 75.75 intraday and the close sat 130 beneath it. The sequence is now 100 → 185 → 315 → 130 (derivation)
⚑ THE SETTLEMENT AND THE CLOSE AGREE IN SIGN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR SESSIONS Settlement 23,835 is 39.50 above MA10 and 39.25 below MA20; the close is 24.50 above and 54.25 below. Same conclusion from both calibers — the three-session split is closed
⊘ BUT VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST BOTH FELL ON THE RECLAIM Volume 187,249 (−39,932, −17.6%); open interest 247,661 (−14,530). A reclaim made on lighter turnover with length leaving is not a demand-led reclaim (interpretation)
⚑ THE ROLL IS NOW THE DOMINANT OPEN-INTEREST STORY AL2611 OI +11,161 to 123,853 against AL2610's −14,530 and AL2609's −10,212. Complex OI 594,470 (−7,057); complex volume 307,263 (−17.7%)
⚑ Retracement of the Aug 3–12 advance improves sharply: 82.2% → 72.9% Launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; the close of 23,820 is 175 above the launch. The best reading since August 18 (derivation)
20-session close percentile 23.7% → 32.4%; 60-session 59.5% → 68.2% 20-session range 23,595–24,290; 60-session range 22,445–24,460 (Jun 4's 24,655 left the window). Both improve on the same close (derivation)
⚑ AND THEN THE NIGHT SESSION CLOSED AT ITS OWN HIGH — 23,970 Aug 27 night: open 23,850, high 23,970, low 23,840, last 23,970, VWAP 23,915.30, volume 63,018. The last print of the session was also its highest
⚑ WHICH PUTS EVERY ONE OF THE SIX AVERAGES BEHIND THE NIGHT PRINT 23,970 clears MA20 at 23,874.25 by 95.75 — the first time in this sequence any print has closed a session above all six. Highest print since Aug 26's 24,075 (derivation)
⚑ AND NIGHT OPEN INTEREST ROSE 2,876 — THE FIRST FRESH LENGTH IN THREE NIGHTS To 250,537, after −5,018 and −7,634 on the two prior nights. Price up on rising OI is new length, where the two prior nights were covering (interpretation)
⚑ ALUMINA BROKE THE FLOOR THE PRIOR EDITION NAMED: AO2610 CLOSED 2,614 Below July 31's 2,629 by 15 — a NEW SERIES-LOW CLOSE across all 128 retrieved sessions. Open 2,635, high 2,642, low 2,611, settlement 2,624 (−31, −1.17%)
⚑ AND IT SITS AT THE 0.0 PERCENTILE OF BOTH WINDOWS SIMULTANEOUSLY The 20-session and 60-session close ranges both now floor at 2,614 itself. A price cannot rank lower than this against its own history (derivation)
⚑ OPEN INTEREST ROSE 16,681 ON THE FALL — A SECOND CONSECUTIVE BUILD To 280,950, after +14,282 on Aug 26. Complex alumina OI +59,740 to 600,961. The fresh-shorts reading the prior edition offered is now confirmed by repetition (interpretation)
⚑ ALUMINA IS BELOW ALL SIX AVERAGES FOR A THIRD SESSION, AND THE GAPS WIDENED AGAIN MA5 2,663.20 (−49.20), MA10 2,672.10 (−58.10), MA20 2,675.50 (−61.50), MA30 2,689.00 (−75.00), MA40 2,698.03 (−84.03), MA60 2,752.82 (−138.82)
⚑ AND IT IS NOW 104 AND 212.21 BELOW THE TWO COST CALIBERS Against 2,718 (July full cost) and 2,826.21 (second caliber). ⊘ Both listed, NOT reconciled. Alumina/aluminium ratio 10.97%, from 11.10% (derivation)
⊘ BUT THE ALUMINA NIGHT SESSION BOUNCED OFF A LOWER LOW ON FALLING OI Night: open 2,614, high 2,632, low 2,605 (a NEW low), last 2,625 (+11 on the close), VWAP 2,623.91, volume 91,213; OI 268,226 (−12,724) — shorts covering into the new low
⚑ AD2610 23,235 (+105, +0.45%) — FIVE of six reclaimed, MA30 newly taken MA5 23,100.00 (+135.00), MA10 23,083.50 (+151.50), MA30 23,188.17 (+46.83), MA40 23,119.62 (+115.38), MA60 23,095.92 (+139.08). Only MA20 23,272.25 is above
⚑ CAST ALLOY AND PRIMARY NOW HAVE THE SAME COUNT AND THE SAME SINGLE HOLDOUT Five of six reclaimed on both boards, with MA20 the only average above on both. The two SHFE aluminium complexes have converged structurally (derivation)
⚑ And the cast-alloy discount narrowed a FOURTH consecutive session AD−AL: 770 → 675 → 630 → 585. ⊘ But the night reversed it — AD's night last of 23,160 against AL's 23,970 rewidens it to 810 (derivation)
⚑ LONDON WENT THE OTHER WAY: cash $3,212.50 (−$15.00, −0.46%) 3M $3,216.00 (−$23.00, −0.71%). Cash is $30.50 above the run's low of $3,182.00 and $160.50 below the August 11 high of $3,373.00
⚑ AND IT FELL FROM FOUR OF SIX AVERAGES TO ONE IN A SINGLE SESSION MA10 ($3,218.30) and MA30 ($3,227.45) — held by $2.55 and $1.47 on Aug 26 — both failed, and MA5 ($3,214.10) went with them. Only MA40 $3,205.54 is held, by $6.96
⊘ THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PRIOR WATCHLIST SAID WOULD HAPPEN It said a quiet session would hand back margins of $2.55 and $1.47. The session was quiet, and it did. The warning is recorded as having been correct (derivation)
⚑ THE CONTANGO COLLAPSED A THIRD STRAIGHT TIME: $11.50 → $3.50 Sequence $19.50 → $18.50 → $11.50 → $3.50, and the steps are accelerating (−1.00, −7.00, −8.00). Narrowest since August 20's $1.00 (derivation)
⚑ LME STOCKS 246,825 mt — UNCHANGED FOR A THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION One change of 100 tonnes across NINE prints since August 17. A warehouse at the low of the run that is neither attracting nor releasing metal
⚑ SHFE-LME ratio EXPANDS 7.3617 → 7.4148 Shanghai +0.25% against London −0.46%. Sequence 7.3901 → 7.4514 → 7.3617 → 7.4148 (derivation)
⊘ Three LME calibers, two signs, again Westmetall cash −0.46%; cnal carries 3M $3,224 (−$5.50) against Westmetall's $3,216.00 (−$23.00); TradingEconomics has aluminium RISING 0.07% to $3,227 on Aug 27. None reconciled
⊘ THE SPOT STREAK ENDED AFTER ONE SESSION — AGAIN. NOT ONE CALIBER BEAT Against the board's +60: Shanghai +60 and Changjiang +60 MATCHED; Chalco East +50, South +40, SW +40, Central +40, Nanchu +30, Nanhai +20 all LAGGED
⚑ BUT THE BASIS HELD EXACTLY: +100 FOR A SECOND SESSION Shanghai spot 23,920 against the board's 23,820. Spot and board rose by the same 60, so the premium is unchanged rather than eroded (derivation)
⚑ ALL THREE SOUTH CHINA SPREADS NARROWED TOGETHER — A FIRST FOR THE RUN Nanhai−Shanghai 550 → 510 (ending eight sessions of widening); Nanchu−Shanghai 270 → 240; Chalco South−East 240 → 230 (derivation)
⊘ AND THIS EDITION REFINES ITS OWN TEST RATHER THAN ITS CONCLUSION The prior test read narrowing-on-a-rising-board as East China weakness. But East China MATCHED the board and South China LAGGED — the narrowing is South falling back, a case the test did not separate
⚑ Chalco raised all four regions again: East 23,920, South 24,150, SW 23,970, Central 23,830 +50 / +40 / +40 / +40. All four retrieved for a second consecutive edition. ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is absent for the third time in four sessions
⚑ OCTOBER CROSSED OVER: THE HIKE SIDE NOW OUTRANKS THE HOLD Oct 28: hold 47.5% against hike 43.0% plus a second hike 9.5% — implied at-least-one-hike 52.5%. The first time hold is not the modal October outcome
⚑ WHILE SEPTEMBER FELL FOR A THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION: 35.7% → 34.4% Sept 16 hold 65.6%. December 9: hold 27.3%, implied at-least-one-hike 72.7%, essentially unchanged from 72.6%. The near end eases, the far end does not
⚑ AND THE DOLLAR HELD 99 BUT DID NOT EXTEND: 99.120 (−0.02%) From 99.124. Monthly −1.75% (from −2.38%), yearly +1.38%. A flat dollar against a flat December strip is coherent with this brief's year-end reading (derivation)
⚑ WARSH SPEAKS TONIGHT AT 22:00 BEIJING — INSIDE THE NIGHT SESSION His first Jackson Hole keynote, about 10:00 ET Friday August 28, 19 days before the Sept 16–17 FOMC. He has said he is 'not constrained by market prices'
⚑ BRENT REBOUNDED, ENDING FOUR STRAIGHT DECLINES — AND THE DRIVER CHANGED $88.35 on the Aug 28 quote (−0.20% intraday) after rising on Aug 27. Attention shifted from Hormuz to Eastern Europe as Russia–Ukraine escalated
⚑ Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery on August 27 One of the main fuel arteries to Moscow, part of a campaign of more than a dozen drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure between August 2 and 24 (secondary)
⚑ And Ukraine has sanctioned five Rusal enterprises — Bratsk, Sayanogorsk, Krasnoyarsk Enacted mid-August against Russia's largest aluminium sites; those three imported over $2.5bn of raw materials between April 2024 and March 2025 (secondary)
Canada's 50% aluminium counter-tariff takes effect September 8 — 11 days away Retaliation covering about $20bn of US goods, with steel and aluminium counter-tariffs doubled (restated)
⊘ SMM's Thursday social inventory is unretrievable for a SECOND edition Carried at Aug 24: 860,000 mt, −15,000 w/w, a sixth consecutive draw. SHFE weekly warehouse 403,797 mt (−18,300) publishes today, after the time of writing
⚑ METHOD: the SHFE close series is extended from 109 to 128 sessions February 24 to August 27, on all three SHFE contracts; LME cash to 166 sessions. This method reproduces the prior edition's August 26 averages exactly on all four series

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 8月28日(周五)上午,沪铝日盘开盘之际。
  • ⚑ 下文全部 8月27日的沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金价格、结算价、成交量、持仓量,均为上海期货交易所公布的 8月27日交易日(8月26日夜盘 + 8月27日日盘合并)数据。
  • ⚑ 8月27日夜盘(21:00 至 8月28日 01:00,归属 8月28日交易日)已经收盘,本期按「已完成时段」列示;其数值取自实时行情口径,交易所自身的结算记录将于今日交易日结束后公布。
  • ⚑ 本期一项方法延伸:沪铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金三条收盘序列均由 109 个交易日延长至 128 个(2月24日至 8月27日);伦铝现货序列延长至 166 个(1月2日至 8月27日)。⚑ 并作为核对而非主张说明:本期方法所算出的 8月26日各条均线,在四条价格序列上与上期完全一致,元位与美分位均无差异。
  • ⊘ 本期未取得:SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分地区成交升贴水、出货/采购情绪指数(已连续第五期未取得,来源需登录);SMM 8月27日(周四)社会库存(已连续第二期未取得);SMM 8月27日氧化铝现货评估;世铝网 8月27日表中缺失的上海华通口径(四个交易日内第三次缺失);上期所 8月27日日度仓单吨数;以及截至 8月28日当周的上期所库存周报(于写稿时点之后发布)。

⚑ 沪铝 AL2610:上期点名的判据被通过——MA10 被收复

  • AL2610(主力):开 23,760,高 23,950,低 23,710,收 23,820,结算 23,835,前结算 23,870。收盘对收盘 +60(+0.25%);收盘对前结算 −50(−0.21%);结算对前结算 −35(−0.15%)。成交 187,249 手(前值 227,181,−39,932,−17.6%);持仓 247,661 手(前值 262,191,−14,530)。
  • ⚑ 上期观察清单所设的唯一首要判据是「日盘能否收在 MA10 之上」,并附有明确的历史门槛:自 8月17日以来无任何一个交易日达成。8月27日达成——收盘 23,820 元高于当日 MA10(23,795.50)24.50 元,连续七个交易日的失守就此终结。
  • ⚑ 六条均线由收复四条增至收复五条,仅 MA20 仍在收盘之上。
  • ⚑ 而这是连续第四个交易日「盘中越过、收盘交还」——最高 23,950 元曾高出 MA20 75.75 元,收盘低于最高 130 元——但交还幅度首次收窄:100 → 185 → 315 → 130(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 结算价与收盘价四个交易日以来首次符号一致:结算 23,835 元高于 MA10 39.50 元、低于 MA20 39.25 元;收盘 23,820 元高于 MA10 24.50 元、低于 MA20 54.25 元。当日加权均价与最后一笔给出同一结论——前三个交易日所见的尾盘卖压本日未再出现(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 但内部结构给出限定,且限定不小:成交量下降 17.6%,持仓量减少 14,530 手。在换手减少、多头离场之下完成的收复,并非由需求买单所支付的收复(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 移仓已成为持仓变动的主导因素:AL2611 持仓增加 11,161 手至 123,853 手,而 AL2609 减少 10,212 手至 69,113 手。AL2611 持仓已高出 AL2609 54,740 手。
  • AL2609 收 23,830,结算 23,830,成交 34,471 手,持仓 69,113 手;AL2611 收 23,810,结算 23,820;AL2612 收 23,770;AL2701 收 23,705;AL2702 收 23,695;AL2703 收 23,700;AL2704 收 23,725;AL2705 收 23,705;AL2706 收 23,720;AL2707 收 23,720;AL2708 收 23,745。品种合计成交 307,263 手(−17.7%);合计持仓 594,470 手(−7,057)。

⚑ 均线:五条被收复,而 MA20 的差距首次收窄

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,762.00(精确,较上日 23,717.00 上行 45.00)。收盘高于 58.00 元,连续第四个交易日站上。
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,795.50(精确),较 8月26日的 23,822.00 下行 26.50 元。⚑ 收盘高于 24.50 元——这是 8月17日以来的首次。此前连续七个交易日(8月18、19、20、21、24、25、26 日)全部收于其下。
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,874.25(精确),较 8月26日的 23,863.50 上行 10.75 元。收盘低于 54.25 元——而 8月26日低于 103.50 元。⚑ 差距在本轮中首次收窄,且本次收窄来自价格上行 60 元,而非均线下行来就价格(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ MA30 = 23,668.83(+19.66);MA40 = 23,526.50(+34.25);MA60 = 23,590.33(−13.92)(全部精确)。收盘分别高出 151.17、293.50、229.67 元。
  • ⚑ 对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤由 82.2% 大幅改善至 72.9%(起点 23,645,高点 24,290,涨幅 645;收盘高于起点 175 元)——为 8月18日以来最佳读数(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位由 23.7% 升至 32.4%(区间 23,595–24,290);60 日收盘分位由 59.5% 升至 68.2%(区间 22,445–24,460,6月4日的 24,655 已移出窗口)。两项分位在同一个收盘上同步改善(此为推算)。

⚑ 夜盘:收于自身的最高价,并将六条均线全部甩在身后

  • ⚑ AL2610 夜盘(8月27日 21:00 至 8月28日 01:00,已收盘):开 23,850,高 23,970,低 23,840,收 23,970,均价 23,915.30;成交 63,018 手;持仓 250,537 手(较 8月27日日盘收盘的 247,661 增加 2,876)。
  • ⚑ 该时段的最后一笔即为其最高价。这正是 8月26日氧化铝「开盘即为全天最高」的镜像(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 23,970 元高于 MA20(23,874.25)95.75 元,即六条均线全部落于该印记之后——本轮之中任何一个时段的收盘首次做到这一点(此为推算)。为 8月26日 24,075 元以来的最高印记。
  • ⚑ 夜盘持仓增加 2,876 手,而此前连续两个夜盘分别减少 5,018 与 7,634 手。价格上行伴随持仓增加为新增多头,而此前两夜为空头回补——这是本期最具建设性的一条内部结构读数(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 夜盘最低 23,840 元高于 8月27日日盘的全部区间下沿(日盘最低 23,710),即夜盘整体运行于日盘之上(此为推算)。

解读:判据被通过,但支付方式需要限定

  • ⚑ 收复 MA10 是一个明确的、事前点名的、并被达成的判据,本简报如实记录其被通过。
  • ⚑ 但同样如实记录的是:该收复由减少 17.6% 的成交量与减少 14,530 手的持仓完成。技术面已经赢下这场争论,而资金面尚未为其买单(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 夜盘的持仓增加是本期唯一一条「资金跟随价格」的证据,其重要性高于夜盘所触及的点位本身(此为解读)。

⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610:跌破上期点名的那道底,创序列新低收盘

  • AO2610:开 2,635,高 2,642,低 2,611,收 2,614,结算 2,624,前结算 2,655。收盘对收盘 −24(−0.91%);结算对前结算 −31(−1.17%);收盘对前结算 −41(−1.54%)。成交 209,710 手(−65,946,−23.9%);持仓 280,950 手(+16,681)。
  • ⚑ 上期观察清单所问的是「能否守住 7月31日的序列最低收盘 2,629 元」。答案是:未能守住,低于其 15 元。收盘 2,614 元为本简报所取 128 个交易日序列中的最低收盘。
  • ⚑ 由此,其 20 日与 60 日收盘分位同时为 0.0%——因为它本身即是两个窗口的下沿(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 持仓量在下跌中增加 16,681 手,为连续第二个交易日在下跌中增仓(8月26日 +14,282)。上期以「解读」提出的「新增空头」判断,已由重复出现而获得确认(此为解读)。品种合计持仓增加 59,740 手至 600,961 手。
  • ⚑ 连续第三个交易日低于全部六条均线,且距离再度扩大:MA5 2,663.20(−49.20)、MA10 2,672.10(−58.10)、MA20 2,675.50(−61.50)、MA30 2,689.00(−75.00)、MA40 2,698.03(−84.03)、MA60 2,752.82(−138.82)(全部精确)。
  • ⚑ 现价低于本简报所载两套成本口径:低于 2,718 元 104 元;低于 2,826.21 元 212.21 元。⊘ 两套并列,不调和。
  • ⚑ 推算:氧化铝对铝价比值降至 10.97%(2,614 ÷ 23,820),前值 11.10%。
  • ⚑ 全月份曲线仍呈单调 contango,整条曲线继续下移:AO2609 2,613 / 2610 2,614 / 2611 2,632 / 2612 2,645 / 2701 2,666 / 2702 2,690 / 2703 2,712 / 2704 2,738 / 2705 2,750 / 2706 2,783 / 2707 2,808 / 2708 2,816(上期区间为 2,630–2,834)。
  • ⊘ 但夜盘给出一条反向信号:开 2,614,高 2,632,低 2,605(创更低的新低),收 2,625(高于日盘收盘 11 元),均价 2,623.91;成交 91,213 手;持仓 268,226 手(−12,724)。空头在新低处回补——这不等于见底,但这是三个交易日以来氧化铝内部结构首次不再单向指向下方(此为解读)。

⚑ 铸造铝合金 AD2610:六条均线收复五条,与原铝口径完全对齐

  • AD2610:开 23,160,高 23,300,低 23,030,收 23,235,结算 23,190,前结算 23,215。收盘对收盘 +105(+0.45%);收盘对前结算 +20(+0.09%)。成交 7,440 手;持仓 11,666 手(−2,784)。
  • ⚑ 六条均线由收复四条增至收复五条,新增的一条为 MA30:MA5 23,100.00(+135.00)、MA10 23,083.50(+151.50)、MA30 23,188.17(+46.83)、MA40 23,119.62(+115.38)、MA60 23,095.92(+139.08);仅 MA20 23,272.25(−37.25)仍在收盘之上(全部精确)。
  • ⚑ 推算:铸造铝合金与原铝现已具有相同的收复数量(五条)与相同的唯一未收复均线(MA20)。上期所铝系两个盘面在结构上完成对齐。
  • ⚑ 推算:AD2610 对 AL2610 的贴水连续第四个交易日收窄,770 → 675 → 630 → 585 元。
  • ⊘ 但夜盘将其反向拉开:AD 夜盘开 23,255,高 23,305,低 23,100,收 23,160(低于日盘收盘 75 元),均价 23,187.75;成交 2,372 手;持仓 11,277 手(−389)。以夜盘收盘计,贴水重新扩大至 810 元——铸造铝合金在夜盘中与原铝反向而行(此为推算)。

⚑ 伦铝:一个交易日由「收复四条」跌回「仅剩一条」

  • Westmetall 官方口径,8月27日:现货结算 3,212.50 美元(−15.00,−0.46%);三个月 3,216.00 美元(−23.00,−0.71%);contango 由 11.50 美元收窄至 3.50 美元;库存 246,825 吨,连续第三个交易日持平。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货均线(精确,166 个交易日,1月2日至 8月27日):MA5 3,214.10(现货低于 1.60)、MA10 3,218.30(低于 5.80)、MA20 3,248.32(低于 35.82)、MA30 3,227.45(低于 14.95)、MA40 3,205.54(高于 6.96)、MA60 3,254.36(低于 41.86)。
  • ⚑ 六条均线由收复四条跌至仅收复一条(MA40),且失守的三条中有两条正是上期以 2.55 与 1.47 美元的极小幅度守住的 MA10 与 MA30。⊘ 上期观察清单原文为「一个平静的交易日即可将其交还」——该交易日确实平静,而它确实被交还。此处记录该提示成立(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ contango 连续第三次收窄,且步长在加速:19.50 → 18.50 → 11.50 → 3.50 美元(步长 −1.00、−7.00、−8.00),为 8月20日的 1.00 美元以来最窄。在库存冻结于本轮低位的同时曲线趋平向 backwardation 靠拢,是近端在收紧,而平盘价格在下行(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 推算:现货 3,212.50 美元高于本轮低点 3,182.00 美元 30.50 美元,低于 8月11日高点 3,373.00 美元 160.50 美元。
  • ⚑ 推算:沪伦比值由 7.3617 扩大至 7.4148(23,820 ÷ 3,212.50);序列 7.3901 → 7.4514 → 7.3617 → 7.4148。上海上涨 0.25% 而伦敦下跌 0.46%。
  • ⊘ 三套口径、两个符号,本期依旧:Westmetall 现货 −0.46%;世铝网载 8月27日 LME 三个月 3,224 美元(−5.50),而 Westmetall 三个月为 −23.00;TradingEconomics 则载 8月27日铝价上涨 0.07% 至 3,227 美元。三套并列,均不调和。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⊘ 8月27日现货:八套口径无一跑赢盘面,连胜再度仅维持一个交易日

  • ⚑ 世铝网口径,8月27日:有色宝长江 23,920 元(+60,区间 23,900–23,940);上海现货 23,920 元(+60,区间 23,900–23,940);南海有色(佛山 A00)24,430 元(+20,区间 24,380–24,480);广东南储 24,160 元(+30,区间 24,130–24,190);中原有色 23,920 元(+60)。⊘ 上海华通口径在 8月27日表中仍未显示,为四个交易日内第三次缺失。
  • ⚑ 中铝报价,8月27日——四个地区全部取得,连续第二期完整:华东 23,920 元(+50)、华南 24,150 元(+40)、西南 23,970 元(+40)、华中 23,830 元(+40)。
  • ⚑ 推算:盘面收盘对收盘为 +60。八套现货口径中,上海现货与长江以 +60 持平于盘面,其余六套(中铝华东 +50、中铝华南 +40、中铝西南 +40、中铝华中 +40、南储 +30、南海 +20)全部落后 10 至 40 元。无一跑赢。
  • ⚑ 推算:但基差未被侵蚀——上海现货 23,920 元高于盘面 23,820 元 100 元,与 8月26日的 +100 元完全相同,连续第二个交易日。现货与盘面同幅上涨,故升水不变而非收窄。中铝华东同为 +100 元(前值 +110)。
  • ⚑ 推算:南海减上海 510 元,由 550 元收窄,终结连续八个交易日的扩大或持平;序列 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450 → 460 → 550 → 510。南储减上海 240 元(由 270 收窄);中铝华南减华东 230 元(由 240 收窄)。⚑ 三条华南价差为本轮首次同步收窄。
  • ⚑ 推算:长江减上海 0 元(持平);中铝西南减华东 +50 元(由 +60 收窄);中铝华中减华东 −90 元(由 −80 扩大)。
  • ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨(SMM,8月20日周度口径,转载);海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元/吨(转载);SMM ADC12 现货对铸造铝合金主力合约的理论升水 865 元/吨(8月14日口径,转载)。
  • 氧化铝:中国现货约 2,681.62 元/吨(SMM 综合,转载);中国以外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。⊘ 8月27日印记未取得。⚑ 需注意:该转载的现货口径 2,681.62 元现已高于盘面 2,614 元 67.62 元,二者的时点不同,不应作为同期基差解读。
  • ⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分地区成交升贴水已连续第五期未取得(来源需登录),继续载入 8月20日:A00 23,600 元(区间 23,580–23,620);华南 +160 / 华东 0 / 华中 −60。

解读:本简报修正的是自身的检验方法,而非结论

  • ⚑ 现货跑赢盘面的序列已呈:一个交易日 → 一个交易日 → 四个交易日 → 一个交易日。这不是一个格局,而是一种振荡。本简报在此前若干期中赋予该序列的信号权重,应据此下调(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 三条华南价差同步收窄,而上期明确的检验方法是「若在盘面上行中反而收窄,则前期扩大更多来自华东的疲弱」。⊘ 该检验方法的构造是不完整的:在盘面上行中价差收窄有两种情形——华东追平,或华南回落。本期的实际情形是华东恰好持平于盘面(+60),而华南落后 20 至 40 元,故收窄来自华南回落,而非华东疲弱。
  • ⚑ 因此本期修正的是检验方法本身,而非上期的结论。「华南紧张为结构性」这一判断在水平上依然成立——510 元仍为本轮次阔,且远高于序列起点的 350 元;但「持续扩大」这一趋势在其首次受检时被打断。连续八个交易日扩大之后的单日收窄,是一个数据点,不是一次反转(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 而升水在 60 点的上涨中原封不动地守住 100 元,其含义强于现货是否跑赢:一个在盘面上涨中不被侵蚀的升水,与一个在盘面上涨中收窄的升水,是两件不同的事(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 伦铝连续第三个交易日不动,而国内周四印记连续第二期未取得

  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 8月27日 246,825 吨,与 8月26日、8月25日持平,连续第三个交易日不变。⚑ 推算:自 8月17日以来的九个印记中,库存仅变动过一次、幅度 100 吨。
  • ⚑ 而 contango 在库存冻结的同时收窄至 3.50 美元。库存不动、曲线趋平,是可交割金属没有增量、而近端仍有需求的组合(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ SMM 8月27日(周四)国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存于写稿时点仍未取得,为连续第二期未取得。继续载入 8月24日(周一)的 86.0 万吨,较 8月20日减少 1.5 万吨,为连续第六次去库。
  • ⚑ 序列(转载):100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5(8月20日)→ 86.0(8月24日);自 7月23日累计去库 14.6 万吨。
  • 上期所 8月17日–8月21日库存周报:铝 403,797 吨,周环比 −18,300 吨(转载)。⊘ 截至 8月28日当周的周报于写稿时点之后发布,本期无法列示。
  • ⊘ 上期所 8月27日日度仓单吨数未取得。铸造铝合金注册仓单转载 8月24日的 20,208 吨(+241)。
  • 铝棒库存 14.3 万吨(+0.05 万吨);铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨);铸造铝合金锭社会库存 28,100 吨(环比 +2,500 吨,连续第二周累积)(全部转载)。
  • ⊘ 各套库存口径的统计窗口与覆盖范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 库存栏已连续两期没有新增的国内硬数据,因此此前的限定原样保留:去库仍应与周度出库量合看,出库量 12.32 万吨环比 −0.1 万吨,库存降而出库不增,仍属到货驱动型去库。
  • ⚑ 而 8月28日(今日)的上期所周报与新一期出库量将同日发布,且与沃什演讲同日。这是本周唯一一次可以对「到货驱动 vs 消费驱动」作出判定的时点(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝方面,库存的「不动」与 contango 的「快速收窄」在同一栏内并存,这两条本身并不矛盾:库存衡量的是存量,contango 衡量的是近端相对远端的紧张程度。存量不增而近端趋紧,是本期库存栏最值得注意的组合(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 联储曲线:10 月完成跨越,加息一侧首次压过不动一侧

  • ⚑ CME FedWatch,8月27日收盘口径:9月16日会议——按兵不动 65.6%,加息 25 个基点 34.4%(前值 35.7%,为连续第三次下降)。
  • ⚑ 10月28日会议——按兵不动 47.5%,加息一次 43.0%,加息两次 9.5%。⚑ 推算:隐含至少加息一次为 52.5%,首次高于按兵不动的 47.5%。此前本简报连续追踪的「不动一侧领先幅度」由 5.5 个百分点收窄至 5.1 个百分点,本期已越过零点并反向至 5.0 个百分点。
  • ⚑ 12月9日会议——按兵不动 27.3%,推算隐含至少加息一次为 72.7%(前值 72.6%),基本持平。
  • ⚑ 推算:整条分布并非单纯陡峭化,而是整体向前推移了一次会议——9 月所让出的部分,由 10 月承接,而 12 月未再上行。
  • ⚑ 美元指数 99.120(8月28日报价,−0.02%);月度 −1.75%(前值 −2.38%),年度 +1.38%。守住 99,但未能延续 8月26日的涨势。
  • ⚑ 本简报上期确立的判断是「美元跟踪的是 12 月口径,而非 9 月」。本期 12 月口径基本持平,而美元亦基本持平——一个框架的可信度既来自它对剧烈日的解释,也来自它对平静日的解释,而这正是年底口径所要求的那个平静日(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 沃什的首次杰克逊霍尔主旨演讲于今日美东时间约 10:00 举行,即北京时间今晚 22:00,时点落在沪铝夜盘之内。距 9月16–17日 FOMC 尚有 19 天。其此前表述为「不受市场价格约束」,在央行语汇中通常预示鹰派意外的可能(转载)。

⚑ 能源与地缘:驱动因素由霍尔木兹换成了东欧

  • ⚑ 布伦特 88.35 美元(8月28日报价,日内 −0.20%),而 8月27日录得上涨,终结连续四个交易日的下跌。⚑ 驱动因素并非霍尔木兹:随俄乌局势升级,市场注意力由中东转向东欧(转载)。
  • ⚑ 8月27日,乌克兰袭击梁赞炼油厂——通往莫斯科的主要燃料动脉之一;8月2日至24日期间,针对俄罗斯石油基础设施的无人机袭击已超过十二次(二手来源)。
  • ⚑ 而对铝更具直接关联的一条:乌克兰已于 8 月中旬对俄铝旗下五家企业实施制裁,包括布拉茨克、萨彦诺戈尔斯克与克拉斯诺亚尔斯克——俄罗斯最大的铝生产基地;这三家在 2024年4月至 2025年3月期间进口原材料超过 25 亿美元(二手来源)。
  • ⊘ 需明确限定:乌克兰的制裁本身并不限制俄铝向中国或 LME 体系的销售,本简报不作此主张。其意义在于——在霍尔木兹这一供应风险通道正在关闭之际,另一条供应风险通道被打开(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 加拿大对铝的 50% 反制关税将于 9月8日生效,距今 11 天;所涉美国商品规模约 200 亿美元,钢铝反制关税翻倍(转载)。

解读:宏观本期偏空,但空在 10 月而非 9 月

  • ⚑ 10 月的跨越是本期宏观栏的核心事实。它意味着市场已不再把「年内首次加息」默认为一个年底事件,而是把它前移至 10 月(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 对铝而言,该前移的含义是:压制的时点提前,而压制的幅度未变(12 月口径持平)。这与美元的持平是一致的(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 今晚沃什的演讲是本周唯一一个有能力显著改变 12 月口径的既定事件,而沪铝夜盘将实时交易它,其后无日盘可供缓冲(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

海外供应

  • 阿联酋 EGA 阿布扎比 Al Taweelah:1,262 台电解槽中已重启 18%,进度快于此前预期(8月14日口径,转载)。
  • 巴西 Alunorte(6.3 百万吨/年):已于 8 月中旬恢复满产,此前因天然气短缺减产至 50%;巴西 ANP 批准其自营进口资格并与 CELBA 达成临时码头准入协议。⚑ 该产能不应再被计为对氧化铝供应的实时减项(上期更正,本期沿用)。损失产量估计 10–12 万吨,三季度影响 7,500 万至 1 亿美元(转载)。
  • 澳大利亚 Tomago(该国最大铝冶炼厂):获 25 亿澳元政府支持方案,保障其 2028 年之后的持续运行(转载)。
  • ⚑ 俄铝:乌克兰制裁其五家企业(布拉茨克、萨彦诺戈尔斯克、克拉斯诺亚尔斯克等),为本期新增的供应风险通道(二手来源,本期新增)。

国内供应与氧化铝

  • ⚑ 氧化铝盘面已跌至本简报所取序列的最低收盘 2,614 元,并低于两套成本口径 104 元与 212.21 元。对中国电解铝厂而言,这是原料成本继续下行、冶炼利润继续扩大;对铝价而言,这是下方成本支撑的进一步失效(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝持仓连续第二个交易日在下跌中增加(+14,282,+16,681),品种合计持仓已升至 600,961 手。⊘ 但夜盘持仓减少 12,724 手且价格自更低的新低回升,为三个交易日以来首次反向信号。
  • 全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(7月30日口径,转载);中国以外氧化铝 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。

下游需求

  • 光伏:中国组件 7 月排产约 38.5 GW,8 月环比小幅上升至约 39.3 GW;受访光伏铝边框企业开工率保持稳定,部分头部企业订单充足,可支撑至月末高位运行(转载)。
  • 铝挤压:SMM 追踪的挤压企业开工率 57.6%(6 月初口径,转载)。建筑类挤压需求上半年持续疲弱,而与新能源、电力基础设施及散热相关的工业类挤压为行业的主要支撑(转载)。
  • 电力、汽车轻量化与光伏边框需求维持稳健,而房地产继续拖累建筑型材(转载)。
  • ⚑ 需求端整体仍弱:下游订单跟进缓慢,成交普遍偏淡,采购以刚需补库为主;当前仍处高温淡季(转载)。
  • 铸造铝合金锭社会库存连续第二周累积至 28,100 吨(+2,500),而铝锭社会库存连续第六次去库,两者方向相反(转载)。

解读

  • ⚑ 基本面本期的净变化是:成本端继续下行(氧化铝创序列新低),需求端无变化(仍弱),海外供应端的风险通道由一条(霍尔木兹,正在关闭)变为两条(新增俄乌)。
  • ⚑ 成本下行对铝价是双向的:它扩大冶炼利润因而鼓励供应,同时抽走下方的成本论据。在需求无改善的前提下,这一栏整体偏空(此为解读)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

分地区成交

  • ⚑ 华东:上海现货 23,920 元(+60,区间 23,900–23,940),涨幅与盘面完全一致;中铝华东挂牌 23,920 元(+50)。⚑ 推算:华东现货对盘面升水 100 元,与前一交易日相同。
  • ⚑ 华南:南海有色(佛山 A00)24,430 元(+20);广东南储 24,160 元(+30);中铝华南挂牌 24,150 元(+40)。⚑ 三套华南口径的涨幅均低于盘面的 +60,为本轮首次全体落后。
  • ⚑ 华中:中铝华中挂牌 23,830 元(+40),仍为八套口径中的最低,且对华东的贴水由 −80 扩大至 −90 元。
  • ⚑ 西南:中铝西南挂牌 23,970 元(+40),对华东的升水由 +60 收窄至 +50 元。
  • 长江有色 23,920 元(+60),与上海现货完全一致,价差为 0。
  • ⊘ 上海华通口径连续缺失,8月25日的 23,830 元不予顺延。

⊘ 情绪指标

  • ⊘ SMM 的出货情绪指数与采购情绪指数已连续第五期无法取得(来源需登录),本简报不予估算、不予替代。
  • ⚑ 可替代的观察是价差结构本身:升水在盘面上涨 60 点的过程中原封不动地维持 100 元,说明现货持货方并未借盘面上涨扩大出货;而三条华南价差同步收窄,说明华南前期的区域性紧张在本交易日有所缓解(此为解读)。
  • 下游采购以刚需补库为主,成交普遍偏淡,整体仍属观望(转载)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期现货栏可以用一句话概括:绝对涨幅落后,相对结构未坏。八套口径无一跑赢盘面,但升水一分未失,而收窄的只是华南对华东的区域溢价(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 这与「全国总量宽松、区域分布紧张」的既有框架一致,只是紧张的区域在本交易日略有松动,而非框架本身改变(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

看多因素(26 项)

  • ⚑ AL2610 收 23,820 元(+60,+0.25%),收复 MA10,为 8月17日以来首次。
  • ⚑ 六条均线由收复四条增至收复五条,仅 MA20 未收复。
  • ⚑ MA20 的差距由 103.50 元收窄至 54.25 元,且收窄来自价格上行而非均线下行。
  • ⚑ 连续七个交易日收于 MA10 之下的序列被终结。
  • ⚑ 结算价与收盘价四期以来首次符号一致,尾盘卖压未再出现。
  • ⚑ 交还幅度首次收窄:100 → 185 → 315 → 130。
  • ⚑ 夜盘收于自身最高价 23,970 元,为 8月26日以来最高印记。
  • ⚑ 夜盘收盘高于全部六条均线,为本轮首次。
  • ⚑ 夜盘持仓增加 2,876 手,为连续两夜减仓后的首次新增多头。
  • ⚑ 夜盘最低 23,840 元高于日盘全部区间。
  • ⚑ 对 8月3–12日涨幅的回撤由 82.2% 改善至 72.9%。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位由 23.7% 升至 32.4%;60 日分位由 59.5% 升至 68.2%。
  • ⚑ 现货升水连续第二个交易日守住 100 元,在盘面上涨 60 点中未被侵蚀。
  • ⚑ 中铝四个地区全部上调报价。
  • ⚑ 南海减上海 510 元仍为本轮次阔,远高于序列起点 350 元。
  • ⚑ 伦铝 contango 连续第三次收窄至 3.50 美元,近端趋紧。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,825 吨为本轮低位,且九个印记仅变动一次。
  • ⚑ 铝锭社会库存 86.0 万吨,连续第六次去库(转载)。
  • ⚑ AD2610 +105 元,六条均线收复五条,与原铝对齐。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金对原铝贴水连续第四次收窄至 585 元。
  • ⚑ 9 月加息概率连续第三次下降,35.7% → 34.4%。
  • ⚑ 美元守住 99 但未能延续涨势,月度仍为 −1.75%。
  • ⚑ 布伦特终结连续四个交易日的下跌。
  • ⚑ 俄乌升级新增一条海外供应风险通道(乌克兰制裁俄铝五家企业)。
  • ⚑ 光伏组件排产 7 月 38.5 GW → 8 月 39.3 GW,铝边框开工率稳定、订单充足至月末。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝成本下行扩大电解铝冶炼利润。

看空因素(27 项)

  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,614 元,创 128 个交易日序列最低收盘,跌破 7月31日的 2,629 元。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 20 日与 60 日收盘分位同为 0.0%。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝持仓连续第二个交易日在下跌中增加(+16,681),新增空头判断获确认。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝连续第三个交易日低于全部六条均线,且距离扩大。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝低于两套成本口径 104 元与 212.21 元——下方成本论据已不可用。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货 −0.46% 至 3,212.50 美元,由收复四条均线跌至仅剩一条。
  • ⚑ 上期以 2.55 与 1.47 美元守住的 MA10 与 MA30 双双失守,MA5 亦失守。
  • ⚑ 伦铝三个月 −0.71%,跌幅大于现货。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比值扩大至 7.4148,上海相对伦敦偏贵。
  • ⚑ 沪铝成交量下降 17.6%,收复由更轻的换手完成。
  • ⚑ AL2610 持仓减少 14,530 手,品种合计持仓减少 7,057 手。
  • ⚑ 这仍是连续第四个交易日「盘中越过 MA20、收盘交还」。
  • ⚑ 八套现货口径无一跑赢盘面,两套持平、六套落后。
  • ⚑ 现货跑赢序列已呈振荡形态(1 → 1 → 4 → 1),信号权重应下调。
  • ⚑ 三条华南价差为本轮首次同步收窄。
  • ⚑ 中铝华中对华东贴水由 −80 扩大至 −90 元。
  • ⚑ 10 月隐含至少加息一次 52.5% 首次超过按兵不动的 47.5%。
  • ⚑ 12 月隐含至少加息一次 72.7%,未见回落。
  • ⚑ 沃什今晚 22:00(北京时间)演讲,「不受市场价格约束」,鹰派意外风险落在夜盘之内。
  • ⚑ 加拿大 50% 铝反制关税 9月8日生效,距今 11 天。
  • ⚑ EGA Al Taweelah 已重启 18% 电解槽,进度快于预期。
  • ⚑ Alunorte 已恢复满产,不再构成氧化铝供应减项。
  • ⚑ 需求端仍弱:高温淡季,下游订单跟进缓慢,采购以刚需为主。
  • ⚑ 房地产继续拖累建筑型材需求。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金锭社会库存连续第二周累积至 28,100 吨。
  • ⚑ 铝锭周度出库量 12.32 万吨环比下降,去库仍属到货驱动。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存连续第三个交易日不动,去库已停滞。

八 · 一句话观点

8月27日,盘面赢下了它的技术之争而成本端失去了它的地板:上期点名的唯一首要判据被通过——AL2610 收 23,820 元(+60,+0.25%)、高于 MA10 24.50 元,为 8月17日以来首次收于其上并终结连续七个交易日的失守,六条均线由收复四条增至五条,MA20 的差距首次收窄(103.50 → 54.25)且收窄来自价格上行,结算与收盘四期以来首次符号一致,交还幅度亦首次收窄(100 → 185 → 315 → 130);随后夜盘收于自身最高价 23,970 元,高出 MA20 95.75 元,使六条均线全部落于该印记之后,且持仓增加 2,876 手,为连续两夜减仓后的首次新增多头——但限定同样明确:该收复由下降 17.6% 的成交量与减少 14,530 手的持仓完成,技术面已经赢下争论,而资金面尚未买单。与此同时氧化铝跌破上期点名的 2,629 元,收 2,614 元创序列新低,20 日与 60 日分位同为 0.0%,持仓连续第二个交易日在下跌中增加 16,681 手,并低于两套成本口径 104 元与 212.21 元;伦铝反向,现货 3,212.50 美元(−0.46%)由收复四条均线跌至仅剩一条,上期以 2.55 与 1.47 美元守住的 MA10 与 MA30 双双失守——恰如上期观察清单所言,而 contango 连续第三次收窄至 3.50 美元、库存连续第三个交易日持平于 246,825 吨;现货八套口径无一跑赢盘面(两套持平、六套落后),但升水一分未失、连续第二个交易日守住 100 元,而三条华南价差为本轮首次同步收窄——本期因此修正的是自身检验方法而非结论:收窄来自华南回落而非华东疲弱,这是上期检验方法未能区分的情形。宏观方面,10 月隐含至少加息一次以 52.5% 首次压过按兵不动的 47.5%,9 月连续第三次下降至 34.4%,12 月持平于 72.7%,美元守住 99 而未延续;布伦特终结四连跌,驱动因素由霍尔木兹换为俄乌——乌克兰 8月27日袭击梁赞炼油厂,并已制裁俄铝五家企业。沃什今晚 22:00 演讲,时点落在夜盘之内,其后无日盘可供缓冲。本简报不作任何投资建议,以上为已确认数据与其解读的分栏陈述。

九 · 今日(8月28日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 夜盘的 23,970 元能否在日盘中被守住,以及 MA20(23,874.25)能否首次以收盘价被收复。 夜盘已把六条均线全部甩在身后,但那是夜盘的印记而非日盘的收盘。若今日日盘收在 23,874.25 之上,则六条均线全部收复,连续四个交易日的「越过又交还」被彻底终结,其结构意义大于任何单日点数;若日盘再度收于其下,则第五次失败成立,而夜盘的强势将被归入「夜盘偏强、日盘偏弱」这一本周已反复出现的模式(此为解读)。同时注意 MA10(23,795.50)已由压力转为支撑,今日能否守住是收复是否成立的最低标准。
  • ⚑ 成交量与持仓量能否跟上价格。 8月27日的收复由下降 17.6% 的成交量与减少 14,530 手的持仓完成,而夜盘持仓增加 2,876 手。若今日日盘出现「价格上行 + 持仓增加」的组合,则夜盘的新增多头获得确认,本轮反弹的性质由技术修复转为资金参与;若持仓继续减少而价格上行,则仍属空头回补,其可持续性应打折(此为解读)。移仓因素需剥离:AL2611 持仓已高出 AL2609 54,740 手。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝在创出序列新低之后的方向,以及持仓的增减。 AO2610 收 2,614 元创 128 个交易日最低收盘,持仓连续第二个交易日在下跌中增加;而夜盘在更低的 2,605 元处回升至 2,625 元、持仓减少 12,724 手。若今日持仓继续减少而价格回升,则空头回补成立,序列新低可能是短期的情绪极值;若持仓重新增加而价格再创新低,则新增空头继续主导,成本端的下行尚未结束。 需注意:两套成本口径(2,718 元与 2,826.21 元)现均高于盘面 104 元与 212.21 元,「成本支撑」已不是一个可用的下方论据(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝能否重新站上 MA5(3,214.10)与 MA10(3,218.30),以及 contango 会否转为 backwardation。 现货 3,212.50 美元距 MA5 仅 1.60 美元、距 MA10 仅 5.80 美元,收复二者则六条均线由一条回到三条;继续下行并跌破 MA40(3,205.54)则六条均线全数失守,而这将是 8月25日之后的第二次。 ⚑ 而更值得跟踪的是曲线:contango 已由 19.50 美元三步收窄至 3.50 美元,若今日转为 backwardation,则在库存冻结于本轮低位的背景下,近端紧张将成为伦敦一侧最硬的多头论据,其权重高于平盘价格本身(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 现货能否重新跑赢盘面,以及 100 元的升水能否连续第三个交易日守住。 8月27日八套口径无一跑赢,但升水一分未失。若今日升水在盘面上涨中被侵蚀,则现货支撑开始实质性减弱;若升水在盘面下跌中扩大,则现货仍在托底,而两种情形的含义完全不同,不应以「现货是否上涨」一项概括(此为解读)。同时关注三条华南价差(南海减上海 510、南储减上海 240、中铝华南减华东 230)是否继续同步收窄——连续两个交易日同步收窄将把「华南紧张为结构性」这一判断由「水平上成立」下调为「正在消退」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 库存:今日上期所周报与新一期铝锭周度出库量,以及 SMM 周四社会库存能否补发。 上期所周报前值 403,797 吨(−18,300),出库量前值 12.32 万吨(环比 −0.1 万吨)。若出库量回升,则连续六周的去库由到货驱动转为消费驱动,其价格支撑显著增强;若继续持平或下降,则此前的限定仍然成立,而这已是本简报连续第三期作出同一限定。 伦铝库存在九个印记仅变动一次之后,今日是否恢复变动同样值得跟踪。
  • ⚑ 沃什今晚 22:00(北京时间)的演讲,以及 12 月而非 9 月口径的反应。 这是本周唯一有能力显著改变 12 月口径的既定事件,而沪铝夜盘将实时交易它,其后无日盘可供缓冲。若 12 月隐含加息概率自 72.7% 明显上行且美元突破 99,则宏观压制加深,今日日盘的任何技术性收复都将在夜盘承压;若 12 月口径回落而美元跌破 99,则本轮均线收复获得宏观侧的配合。 ⚑ 并需同时留意 10 月口径:其隐含至少加息一次已以 52.5% 首次压过按兵不动的 47.5%,该跨越若在演讲后被强化,含义大于 9 月概率的进一步下降(此为解读)。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This edition is written on the morning of Friday, August 28, at the open of the SHFE day session.
  • ⚑ Every August 27 SHFE, alumina and cast-alloy price, settlement, volume and open-interest figure below is the August 27 trading day (August 26 night plus August 27 day, combined) as published by the exchange.
  • ⚑ The August 27 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 to 01:00 on August 28, belonging to the August 28 trading day) has CLOSED and is carried here as a completed session; its figures come from a real-time feed and the exchange’s own settled record publishes after today’s close.
  • ⚑ ONE METHOD EXTENSION: the SHFE close series is extended from 109 to 128 trading days (February 24 to August 27) on all three SHFE contracts, and the LME cash series to 166 sessions (January 2 to August 27). ⚑ Stated as a CHECK rather than a claim: this edition’s method reproduces the prior edition’s August 26 moving averages exactly on all four price series — to the yuan and to the cent.
  • ⊘ NOT retrievable this edition: SMM’s A00 absolute quote, regional transaction premia and sentiment indices (a FIFTH consecutive edition, behind a login wall); SMM’s Thursday August 27 social inventory, a SECOND consecutive edition; SMM’s August 27 alumina spot assessments; the Shanghai Huatong caliber, absent for the third time in four sessions; SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 27; and the SHFE weekly warehouse report for the week to August 28, which publishes after the time of writing.

⚑ SHFE AL2610: the test the prior edition named was passed — MA10 is reclaimed

  • AL2610 (most-traded): open 23,760, high 23,950, low 23,710, close 23,820, settlement 23,835, prior settlement 23,870. Close-to-close +60 (+0.25%); close versus prior settlement −50 (−0.21%); settlement versus prior settlement −35 (−0.15%). Volume 187,249 lots (from 227,181, −39,932, −17.6%); open interest 247,661 (from 262,191, −14,530).
  • ⚑ The prior watchlist set ONE primary test — whether the day session could CLOSE above MA10 — and attached an explicit historical threshold: no session had done so since August 17. August 27 did it. The close of 23,820 is 24.50 above the day’s MA10 of 23,795.50, and SEVEN consecutive sessions below that average are over.
  • ⚑ Five of six averages are now reclaimed, up from four. Only MA20 remains above the close.
  • ⚑ This is technically a FOURTH consecutive session of clearing intraday and surrendering by the bell — the high of 23,950 stood 75.75 above MA20 and the close sits 130 beneath the high — but the give-back NARROWED for the first time: 100 → 185 → 315 → 130 (derivation).
  • ⚑ And the settlement and the close AGREE IN SIGN for the first time in four sessions: settlement 23,835 is 39.50 above MA10 and 39.25 below MA20; the close is 24.50 above and 54.25 below. The weighted average of the day and the last price of the day reach the same conclusion — the late selling that marked the three preceding sessions did not recur (interpretation).
  • ⊘ But the internals attach a qualification, and it is not small: volume fell 17.6% and open interest fell 14,530. A reclaim made on lighter turnover with length leaving is not a reclaim that demand paid for (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The roll is now the dominant open-interest story: AL2611 gained 11,161 to 123,853 while AL2609 lost 10,212 to 69,113. AL2611’s open interest now exceeds AL2609’s by 54,740.
  • AL2609 closed 23,830, settlement 23,830, volume 34,471, OI 69,113. AL2611 23,810; AL2612 23,770; AL2701 23,705; AL2702 23,695; AL2703 23,700; AL2704 23,725; AL2705 23,705; AL2706 23,720; AL2707 23,720; AL2708 23,745. Complex volume 307,263 (−17.7%); complex OI 594,470 (−7,057).

⚑ The averages: five reclaimed, and MA20’s gap narrows for the first time

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,762.00 (exact, up 45.00 from 23,717.00). Held by 58.00 for a FOURTH consecutive session.
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,795.50 (exact), down 26.50 from 23,822.00. ⚑ The close is 24.50 ABOVE it — the first time since August 17. The seven sessions from August 18 through August 26 all closed beneath it.
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,874.25 (exact), up 10.75 from 23,863.50. The close is 54.25 below, from 103.50 on August 26. ⚑ The gap narrowed for the first time in this sequence, and this time the narrowing came from the PRICE rising 60 rather than from the average falling to meet it (derivation).
  • ⚑ MA30 = 23,668.83 (+19.66); MA40 = 23,526.50 (+34.25); MA60 = 23,590.33 (−13.92), all exact. The close is 151.17, 293.50 and 229.67 above them.
  • ⚑ Retracement of the August 3–12 advance improves sharply from 82.2% to 72.9% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; the close is 175 above the launch) — the best reading since August 18 (derivation).
  • ⚑ The 20-session close percentile rises 23.7% → 32.4% (range 23,595–24,290); the 60-session rises 59.5% → 68.2% (range 22,445–24,460, June 4’s 24,655 having left the window). Both improve on the same close (derivation).

⚑ The night session closed AT ITS OWN HIGH, with every average behind it

  • ⚑ AL2610 night session (21:00 August 27 to 01:00 August 28, CLOSED): open 23,850, high 23,970, low 23,840, last 23,970, VWAP 23,915.30; volume 63,018; open interest 250,537, up 2,876 on the August 27 day close of 247,661.
  • ⚑ The last print of the session was also its highest. That is the exact mirror of alumina’s August 26 session, which opened at its high and never traded above the first tick (derivation).
  • ⚑ 23,970 clears MA20 at 23,874.25 by 95.75, which puts ALL SIX averages behind the print — the first time in this entire sequence that has been true at the close of any session (derivation). It is the highest print since August 26’s 24,075.
  • ⚑ And night open interest ROSE 2,876, after falling 5,018 and 7,634 on the two preceding nights. Price up on rising open interest is fresh length where the two prior nights were covering — the single most constructive internal in the edition (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The night low of 23,840 sits above the ENTIRE August 27 day range (day low 23,710), so the night session traded wholly above the day (derivation).

Interpretation: the test was passed, but how it was paid for needs qualifying

  • ⚑ Reclaiming MA10 was an explicit, pre-named, and achieved test, and this brief records it as passed.
  • ⚑ Recorded with equal candour: it was achieved on 17.6% less volume and 14,530 fewer lots of open interest. The technicals have won the argument; the money has not yet paid for it (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The night session’s open-interest build is the one piece of evidence in this edition of money following price, and that matters more than the level the night session reached (interpretation).

⚑ Alumina AO2610: it broke the floor the prior watchlist named — a new series-low close

  • AO2610: open 2,635, high 2,642, low 2,611, close 2,614, settlement 2,624, prior settlement 2,655. Close-to-close −24 (−0.91%); settlement versus prior settlement −31 (−1.17%); close versus prior settlement −41 (−1.54%). Volume 209,710 (−65,946, −23.9%); open interest 280,950 (+16,681).
  • ⚑ The prior watchlist asked whether alumina could hold July 31’s series-low close of 2,629. It could not, closing 15 below it. 2,614 is the LOWEST close across all 128 retrieved sessions.
  • ⚑ It therefore sits at the 0.0 percentile of BOTH its 20-session and its 60-session close windows simultaneously — because it IS the floor of both (derivation).
  • ⚑ Open interest rose 16,681 on the fall, a SECOND consecutive build on a decline (August 26: +14,282). The fresh-shorts reading the prior edition could only offer as interpretation is now confirmed by repetition (interpretation). Complex alumina open interest +59,740 to 600,961.
  • ⚑ Below all six averages for a THIRD session with the gaps widening again: MA5 2,663.20 (−49.20), MA10 2,672.10 (−58.10), MA20 2,675.50 (−61.50), MA30 2,689.00 (−75.00), MA40 2,698.03 (−84.03), MA60 2,752.82 (−138.82), all exact.
  • ⚑ It is 104 below the 2,718 July full-cost caliber and 212.21 below the second caliber at 2,826.21. ⊘ Both listed, NOT reconciled.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the alumina-to-aluminium ratio falls to 10.97% (2,614 ÷ 23,820), from 11.10%.
  • ⚑ The whole curve remains in monotonic contango and shifted lower again: AO2609 2,613 / 2610 2,614 / 2611 2,632 / 2612 2,645 / 2701 2,666 / 2702 2,690 / 2703 2,712 / 2704 2,738 / 2705 2,750 / 2706 2,783 / 2707 2,808 / 2708 2,816 (the prior edition’s range was 2,630–2,834).
  • ⊘ But the night session gave one counter-signal: open 2,614, high 2,632, low 2,605 (a NEW low), last 2,625 (11 above the day close), VWAP 2,623.91; volume 91,213; open interest 268,226 (−12,724). Shorts covering into a new low is not a bottom, but it is the first time in three sessions the alumina internals have pointed anywhere but down (interpretation).

⚑ Cast alloy AD2610: five of six reclaimed, aligning exactly with primary

  • AD2610: open 23,160, high 23,300, low 23,030, close 23,235, settlement 23,190, prior settlement 23,215. Close-to-close +105 (+0.45%); close versus prior settlement +20 (+0.09%). Volume 7,440; open interest 11,666 (−2,784).
  • ⚑ Five of six averages reclaimed, up from four, with MA30 the newly taken one: MA5 23,100.00 (+135.00), MA10 23,083.50 (+151.50), MA30 23,188.17 (+46.83), MA40 23,119.62 (+115.38), MA60 23,095.92 (+139.08). Only MA20 23,272.25 (−37.25) is above, all exact.
  • ⚑ Derivation: cast alloy and primary now have the SAME reclaimed count (five) and the SAME single holdout (MA20). The two SHFE aluminium boards have converged structurally.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the cast-alloy discount to primary narrowed a FOURTH consecutive session, 770 → 675 → 630 → 585.
  • ⊘ But the night reversed it: AD night open 23,255, high 23,305, low 23,100, last 23,160 (75 BELOW the day close), VWAP 23,187.75; volume 2,372; OI 11,277 (−389). On the night prints the discount rewidens to 810 — cast alloy went the opposite way from primary overnight (derivation).

⚑ LME: from four of six averages to ONE, in a single session

  • Westmetall official caliber, August 27: cash settlement $3,212.50 (−$15.00, −0.46%); 3M $3,216.00 (−$23.00, −0.71%); contango narrows $11.50 → $3.50; stocks 246,825 mt, unchanged for a THIRD consecutive session.
  • ⚑ LME cash moving averages (exact, 166 sessions, January 2 to August 27): MA5 $3,214.10 (cash below by $1.60), MA10 $3,218.30 (below by $5.80), MA20 $3,248.32 (below by $35.82), MA30 $3,227.45 (below by $14.95), MA40 $3,205.54 (ABOVE by $6.96), MA60 $3,254.36 (below by $41.86).
  • ⚑ The count collapsed from four of six to ONE (MA40), and two of the three lost are precisely the MA10 and MA30 the prior edition flagged as held by only $2.55 and $1.47. ⊘ The prior watchlist’s words were “a quiet session hands them back.” The session was quiet, and it did. The warning is recorded here as having been correct (derivation).
  • ⚑ The contango narrowed a THIRD consecutive time and the steps are ACCELERATING: $19.50 → $18.50 → $11.50 → $3.50 (steps of −$1.00, −$7.00, −$8.00), the narrowest since August 20’s $1.00. A curve flattening toward backwardation while stocks sit frozen at the low of the run is the nearby tightening even as the flat price falls (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Derivation: cash at $3,212.50 is $30.50 above the run’s low of $3,182.00 and $160.50 below the August 11 high of $3,373.00.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the SHFE-LME ratio EXPANDS 7.3617 → 7.4148 (23,820 ÷ 3,212.50); the sequence is 7.3901 → 7.4514 → 7.3617 → 7.4148. Shanghai rose 0.25% against London’s −0.46%.
  • ⊘ Three calibers and two signs again: Westmetall cash −0.46%; cnal carries LME 3M for August 27 at $3,224 (−$5.50) against Westmetall’s 3M at $3,216.00 (−$23.00); and TradingEconomics has aluminium RISING 0.07% to $3,227 on August 27. All three listed, none reconciled.

⊘ August 27 spot: not one of eight calibers beat the board — the streak lasted one session again

  • ⚑ cnal caliber, August 27: Changjiang 23,920 (+60, range 23,900–23,940); Shanghai spot 23,920 (+60, range 23,900–23,940); Nanhai (Foshan A00) 24,430 (+20, range 24,380–24,480); Guangdong Nanchu 24,160 (+30, range 24,130–24,190); Zhongyuan 23,920 (+60). ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is again absent from the August 27 table, the third absence in four sessions.
  • ⚑ Chalco’s producer quotation, August 27 — all four regions retrieved for a second consecutive edition: East China 23,920 (+50), South China 24,150 (+40), Southwest 23,970 (+40), Central China 23,830 (+40).
  • ⚑ Derivation: the board rose +60 close-to-close. Of the eight spot calibers, Shanghai spot and Changjiang MATCHED it at +60; the other six — Chalco East +50, Chalco South +40, Chalco Southwest +40, Chalco Central +40, Nanchu +30 and Nanhai +20 — all LAGGED, by 10 to 40. NONE beat it.
  • ⚑ Derivation: but the basis was not eroded — Shanghai spot at 23,920 is 100 above the board’s 23,820, identical to August 26’s +100, for a second consecutive session. Spot and board rose by the same amount, so the premium is unchanged rather than narrowed. Chalco East is also +100 (from +110).
  • ⚑ Derivation: Nanhai−Shanghai narrows 550 → 510, ending eight consecutive sessions of widening or flat; the sequence is 350 → 400 → 400 → 390 → 450 → 450 → 460 → 550 → 510. Nanchu−Shanghai narrows 270 → 240. Chalco South−East narrows 240 → 230. ⚑ All three South China spreads narrowed together for the first time in the run.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Changjiang−Shanghai 0 (unchanged); Chalco Southwest−East +50 (from +60); Chalco Central−East −90 (widened from −80).
  • ADC12 at 23,900 yuan/mt (SMM weekly caliber, August 20, restated); overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190/mt (restated); SMM’s theoretical ADC12 spot premium over the most-traded cast-alloy contract 865 yuan/mt (August 14 caliber, restated).
  • Alumina: China spot around 2,681.62 yuan/mt (SMM composite, restated); ex-China $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (restated). ⊘ No August 27 print retrieved. ⚑ Note that the restated spot caliber of 2,681.62 now sits 67.62 ABOVE the board’s 2,614 — the two carry different dates and should not be read as a same-day basis.
  • ⊘ SMM’s A00 absolute quote and regional transaction premia are unretrievable for a FIFTH consecutive edition (login wall), carried at August 20: A00 23,600 (range 23,580–23,620); South China +160 / East China 0 / Central China −60.

Interpretation: this edition refines its own test, not its conclusion

  • ⚑ The spot-outperformance sequence now runs one session, one session, four sessions, one session. That is not a regime, it is an oscillation, and the signal weight this brief assigned to it in earlier editions should be marked down accordingly (interpretation).
  • ⚑ All three South China spreads narrowed together, and the prior edition’s stated test was that “narrowing on a rising board would mean East China weakness.” ⊘ THAT TEST WAS CONSTRUCTED INCOMPLETELY. There are two ways a spread narrows on a rising board: East China catches up, or South China falls back. Here East China matched the board exactly (+60) while South China lagged by 20 to 40, so the narrowing is South China relief, not East China weakness.
  • ⚑ So what this edition revises is the TEST, not the prior conclusion. “South China tightness is structural” still holds in LEVEL — 510 is the second-widest reading of the run and far above the sequence’s 350 starting point — but the WIDENING trend broke on its first examination, and one session of narrowing after eight of widening is a datum, not a reversal (interpretation).
  • ⚑ And the premium surviving a 60-point rally entirely intact at 100 matters more than whether spot outperformed: a premium that is not eroded by a rising board and a premium that narrows into one are different things (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ LME frozen for a third session; the domestic Thursday print unretrievable for a second edition

  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,825 mt on August 27, unchanged from August 26 and August 25 — a THIRD consecutive session without movement. ⚑ Derivation: across the NINE prints since August 17, stocks have changed once, by 100 tonnes.
  • ⚑ And the contango narrowed to $3.50 while the stocks stood still. Stocks frozen plus a flattening curve is the combination of no incremental deliverable metal and continuing nearby demand (interpretation).
  • ⊘ SMM’s Thursday August 27 social inventory print for China’s mainstream consumption areas is not retrievable at the time of writing, a SECOND consecutive edition. Carried at August 24 (Monday): 860,000 mt, down 15,000 from August 20, a sixth consecutive draw.
  • ⚑ Sequence (restated): 1,006kt (Jul 23) → 979 → 953 → 958 (Aug 3) → 933 → 917 → 898 → 886 → 875 (Aug 20) → 860 (Aug 24); a cumulative 146,000 mt drawn since July 23.
  • SHFE weekly warehouse report for August 17–21: aluminium 403,797 mt, −18,300 week-on-week (restated). ⊘ The report for the week to August 28 publishes after the time of writing and cannot be listed this edition.
  • ⊘ SHFE daily warrant tonnages for August 27 not retrieved. Cast-alloy registered warrants restated at August 24’s 20,208 mt (+241).
  • Aluminium billet inventory 143,000 mt (+500); weekly ingot outflow 123,200 mt (−1,000 week-on-week); cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second consecutive week of buildup), all restated.
  • ⊘ The inventory calibers have different statistical windows and coverage; this brief does not sum them and does not reconcile them.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The inventory column has now gone two editions without new domestic hard data, so the standing qualification is carried unchanged: the destock must be read alongside the weekly outflow, and outflow at 123,200 mt was DOWN 1,000. Inventory falling while outflow does not rise remains an arrival-led destock.
  • ⚑ Today, August 28, brings the SHFE weekly report and a new outflow figure on the same day — and on the same day as Warsh. It is the week’s only opportunity to settle the arrival-led versus consumption-led question (interpretation).
  • ⚑ On the LME side, “stocks unchanged” and “contango collapsing” sit in the same column without contradicting each other: stocks measure the level, the contango measures nearby tightness against the forward. Level flat and nearby tightening is the most notable combination in this column (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The Fed curve: October crossed over, and the hike side now outranks the hold

  • ⚑ CME FedWatch, August 27 close: the September 16 meeting — hold 65.6%, a 25bp hike 34.4% (from 35.7%, a THIRD consecutive decline).
  • ⚑ The October 28 meeting — hold 47.5%, one hike 43.0%, two hikes 9.5%. ⚑ Derivation: implied at-least-one-hike is 52.5%, ABOVE the 47.5% hold for the first time. The hold’s margin, which this brief tracked as it narrowed from 5.5 to 5.1 points, has crossed zero and reversed to 5.0 points the other way.
  • ⚑ The December 9 meeting — hold 27.3%, implied at-least-one-hike 72.7% by derivation (from 72.6%), essentially unchanged.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the distribution has not simply steepened; it has walked forward one meeting — what September gave up, October took on, while December did not move.
  • ⚑ The dollar index is 99.120 on the August 28 quote (−0.02%); monthly −1.75% (from −2.38%), yearly +1.38%. It held 99 but did not extend August 26’s gain.
  • ⚑ The prior edition established that the dollar tracks the DECEMBER caliber rather than September. This session the December strip was flat and the dollar was flat. A framework earns confidence by explaining the quiet days as well as the loud ones, and this is the quiet day the year-end reading required (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote is TODAY, about 10:00 ET, which is 22:00 Beijing — INSIDE the SHFE night session. It falls 19 days before the September 16–17 FOMC. He has previously said he is “not constrained by market prices,” a phrase that in central-bank language flags the possibility of a hawkish surprise (restated).

⚑ Energy and geopolitics: the driver changed from Hormuz to Eastern Europe

  • ⚑ Brent $88.35 on the August 28 quote (−0.20% intraday), having RISEN on August 27 to end four consecutive declines. ⚑ The driver is not Hormuz: attention shifted from the Middle East to Eastern Europe as the Russia–Ukraine war escalated (restated).
  • ⚑ On August 27 Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery, one of the main fuel arteries to Moscow, as part of a campaign of more than a dozen drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure between August 2 and 24 (secondary source).
  • ⚑ And the item with the most direct aluminium relevance: Ukraine enacted sanctions in mid-August against five Rusal enterprises including Bratsk, Sayanogorsk and Krasnoyarsk — Russia’s largest aluminium sites, which between April 2024 and March 2025 imported over $2.5 billion of raw materials (secondary source).
  • ⊘ An explicit qualification: Ukrainian sanctions do not by themselves restrict Rusal’s sales into China or the LME system, and this brief makes no such claim. Their significance is that a second supply-risk channel opens at the moment the first one, Hormuz, is closing (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Canada’s 50% aluminium counter-tariff takes effect on September 8, 11 days away, covering about $20 billion of US goods with steel and aluminium counter-tariffs doubled (restated).

Interpretation: macro is bearish this edition, but bearish in October rather than September

  • ⚑ The October crossover is the central fact of this macro column. It means the market no longer treats “the first hike of the cycle” as a year-end event; it has moved it forward to October (interpretation).
  • ⚑ For aluminium the consequence of that shift is that the TIMING of the suppression advances while its MAGNITUDE does not (December unchanged). That is consistent with the flat dollar (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Warsh tonight is the week’s only scheduled event capable of materially moving the December strip, and the SHFE night session will trade it in real time with no day session behind which to shelter (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

Overseas supply

  • UAE, EGA Al Taweelah: 18% of the plant’s 1,262 electrolysis cells have been restarted, with progress faster than anticipated (August 14 caliber, restated).
  • Brazil, Alunorte (6.3 mtpa): back at FULL capacity since mid-August, having cut to 50% on a natural gas shortage; Brazil’s ANP approved it as a self-importer of gas and a temporary terminal-access agreement was struck with CELBA. ⚑ This capacity must NOT be counted as a live subtraction from alumina supply (corrected in the prior edition, carried here). Lost production is put at 100,000–120,000 mt and the Q3 hit at $75–100 million (restated).
  • Australia, Tomago (the country’s largest smelter): secured an A$2.5 billion government support package to continue operating beyond 2028 (restated).
  • ⚑ Rusal: Ukraine has sanctioned five of its enterprises (Bratsk, Sayanogorsk, Krasnoyarsk and others) — a supply-risk channel new to this edition (secondary source, NEW).

Domestic supply and alumina

  • ⚑ The alumina board has fallen to the lowest close of the retrieved series at 2,614, and sits 104 and 212.21 below the two cost calibers. For Chinese smelters that is falling input cost and widening margin; for the metal it is a further failure of the downside cost argument (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Alumina open interest has now risen on a falling price for two consecutive sessions (+14,282, +16,681), taking complex alumina open interest to 600,961. ⊘ But the night session saw open interest FALL 12,724 with the price recovering off a lower low — the first counter-signal in three sessions.
  • National alumina inventory 7.028 million mt (July 30 caliber, restated); ex-China alumina $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (restated).

Downstream demand

  • Photovoltaic: China’s module scheduled production was about 38.5 GW in July and edges up month-on-month to about 39.3 GW in August; surveyed PV aluminium frame producers report stable operating rates, with some leading firms holding orders sufficient to run at high levels through month-end (restated).
  • Extrusion: SMM puts the operating rate among the extruders it tracks at 57.6% (early June caliber, restated). Architectural extrusion demand was weak through H1, while industrial extrusion tied to new energy, power infrastructure and heat dissipation provided the principal support (restated).
  • Demand in power systems, automotive lightweighting and PV frames remains firm, while property continues to weigh on architectural profiles (restated).
  • ⚑ Overall demand remains weak: downstream order follow-through is slow, transactions are generally thin, and buying is confined to just-in-time restocking in the high-temperature off-season (restated).
  • Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory built for a second consecutive week to 28,100 mt (+2,500) while aluminium ingot social inventory drew for a sixth consecutive reading — the two are moving in opposite directions (restated).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net change in fundamentals this edition: cost continues falling (alumina at a series low), demand is unchanged (weak), and the overseas supply-risk channels went from one (Hormuz, closing) to two (Russia–Ukraine, new).
  • ⚑ Falling cost cuts both ways for aluminium: it widens smelter margin and therefore encourages supply, while removing the downside cost argument. With no improvement in demand, this column is net bearish (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Regional transactions

  • ⚑ East China: Shanghai spot 23,920 (+60, range 23,900–23,940), matching the board’s move exactly; Chalco East China listed at 23,920 (+50). ⚑ Derivation: the East China premium to the board is 100, identical to the prior session.
  • ⚑ South China: Nanhai (Foshan A00) 24,430 (+20); Guangdong Nanchu 24,160 (+30); Chalco South China listed at 24,150 (+40). ⚑ All three South China calibers rose LESS than the board’s +60 — the first time in the run that all of South China lagged.
  • ⚑ Central China: Chalco Central China listed at 23,830 (+40), still the lowest of the eight calibers, with its discount to East China widening from −80 to −90.
  • ⚑ Southwest: Chalco Southwest listed at 23,970 (+40), its premium to East China narrowing from +60 to +50.
  • Changjiang 23,920 (+60), identical to Shanghai spot for a spread of zero.
  • ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is absent again; August 25’s 23,830 is NOT carried forward.

⊘ Sentiment indicators

  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment sentiment index and purchasing sentiment index have been unretrievable for a FIFTH consecutive edition (login wall). This brief does not estimate them and does not substitute for them.
  • ⚑ The available substitute is the spread structure itself: the premium held at exactly 100 through a 60-point rally in the board, which says holders did not use the rally to push volume out; and the three South China spreads narrowed together, which says the regional tightness of recent sessions eased somewhat on the day (interpretation).
  • Downstream buying is confined to just-in-time restocking with generally thin transactions — wait-and-see overall (restated).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The spot column reduces to one sentence: the absolute move lagged, the relative structure did not deteriorate. Not one of eight calibers beat the board, but not a yuan of the premium was surrendered, and what narrowed was only South China’s regional premium over East China (interpretation).
  • ⚑ That is consistent with the standing framework of a nationally comfortable balance with regionally tight distribution — the tight region simply loosened a little on the day, rather than the framework changing (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (26)

  • ⚑ AL2610 closed 23,820 (+60, +0.25%) and RECLAIMED MA10 — the first close above it since August 17.
  • ⚑ Five of six averages reclaimed, up from four; only MA20 remains above.
  • ⚑ MA20’s gap narrowed from 103.50 to 54.25, and the narrowing came from the price rising rather than the average falling.
  • ⚑ Seven consecutive sessions of closing below MA10 have ended.
  • ⚑ Settlement and close agree in sign for the first time in four sessions; the late selling did not recur.
  • ⚑ The give-back narrowed for the first time: 100 → 185 → 315 → 130.
  • ⚑ The night session closed AT ITS OWN HIGH of 23,970, the highest print since August 26.
  • ⚑ That night close is above ALL SIX averages — a first for this sequence.
  • ⚑ Night open interest ROSE 2,876, the first fresh length after two nights of covering.
  • ⚑ The night low of 23,840 sits above the entire August 27 day range.
  • ⚑ Retracement of the August 3–12 advance improved from 82.2% to 72.9%.
  • ⚑ The 20-session close percentile rose 23.7% → 32.4% and the 60-session 59.5% → 68.2%.
  • ⚑ The spot premium held at exactly 100 for a second session, uneroded by a 60-point board rally.
  • ⚑ Chalco raised all four regional quotations.
  • ⚑ Nanhai−Shanghai at 510 is still the second-widest of the run and far above the 350 starting point.
  • ⚑ The LME contango narrowed a third consecutive time to $3.50 — nearby tightening.
  • ⚑ LME stocks at 246,825 mt sit at the low of the run with one change in nine prints.
  • ⚑ Aluminium ingot social inventory at 860,000 mt, a sixth consecutive draw (restated).
  • ⚑ AD2610 +105 with five of six averages reclaimed, aligned with primary.
  • ⚑ The cast-alloy discount to primary narrowed a fourth consecutive session to 585.
  • ⚑ September hike odds fell a third consecutive time, 35.7% → 34.4%.
  • ⚑ The dollar held 99 but failed to extend; monthly change is still −1.75%.
  • ⚑ Brent ended four consecutive declines.
  • ⚑ Russia–Ukraine escalation adds a second overseas supply-risk channel (Ukraine’s sanctions on five Rusal plants).
  • ⚑ PV module scheduled production 38.5 GW in July to 39.3 GW in August, with frame operating rates stable and orders sufficient to month-end.
  • ⚑ Falling alumina cost widens Chinese smelter margins.

Bearish factors (27)

  • ⚑ Alumina AO2610 closed 2,614, a NEW series-low close across 128 sessions, breaking July 31’s 2,629.
  • ⚑ Alumina sits at the 0.0 percentile of both its 20- and 60-session close windows.
  • ⚑ Alumina open interest rose on a falling price for a second consecutive session (+16,681), confirming fresh shorts.
  • ⚑ Alumina is below all six averages for a third session with the gaps widening.
  • ⚑ Alumina is 104 and 212.21 below the two cost calibers — the downside cost argument is no longer available.
  • ⚑ LME cash −0.46% to $3,212.50, falling from four of six averages to just one.
  • ⚑ MA10 and MA30, held by $2.55 and $1.47, both failed, and MA5 went with them.
  • ⚑ LME 3M fell 0.71%, more than cash.
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio expanded to 7.4148 — Shanghai is relatively expensive to London.
  • ⚑ SHFE volume fell 17.6%; the reclaim was achieved on lighter turnover.
  • ⚑ AL2610 open interest fell 14,530 and complex open interest 7,057.
  • ⚑ This is still a FOURTH consecutive session of clearing MA20 intraday and surrendering it by the bell.
  • ⚑ Not one of eight spot calibers beat the board — two matched, six lagged.
  • ⚑ The spot outperformance sequence is oscillating (1 → 1 → 4 → 1) and its signal weight should be marked down.
  • ⚑ All three South China spreads narrowed together for the first time in the run.
  • ⚑ Chalco Central China’s discount to East China widened from −80 to −90.
  • ⚑ October’s implied at-least-one-hike of 52.5% exceeds the 47.5% hold for the first time.
  • ⚑ December’s implied at-least-one-hike at 72.7% shows no retreat.
  • ⚑ Warsh speaks at 22:00 Beijing tonight, “not constrained by market prices” — hawkish-surprise risk falls inside the night session.
  • ⚑ Canada’s 50% aluminium counter-tariff takes effect September 8, 11 days away.
  • ⚑ EGA Al Taweelah has restarted 18% of its cells, faster than anticipated.
  • ⚑ Alunorte is back at full capacity and is no longer a subtraction from alumina supply.
  • ⚑ Demand remains weak: high-temperature off-season, slow order follow-through, just-in-time buying only.
  • ⚑ Property continues to weigh on architectural profile demand.
  • ⚑ Cast aluminium alloy ingot social inventory built for a second consecutive week to 28,100 mt.
  • ⚑ Weekly ingot outflow at 123,200 mt fell week-on-week — the destock remains arrival-led.
  • ⚑ LME stocks unchanged for a third consecutive session; the draw has stalled.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

On August 27 the board won its technical argument while the cost line lost its floor: the single primary test the prior edition named was passed — AL2610 closed 23,820 (+60, +0.25%), 24.50 above MA10, the first close above it since August 17 and the end of seven consecutive sessions beneath it, taking the reclaimed count from four of six to five, narrowing MA20’s gap for the first time (103.50 → 54.25) and narrowing it from the price side rather than the average side, with settlement and close agreeing in sign for the first time in four sessions and the give-back narrowing for the first time (100 → 185 → 315 → 130); the night session then closed AT ITS OWN HIGH of 23,970, clearing MA20 by 95.75 so that every one of the six averages sits behind the print, with open interest UP 2,876 for the first fresh length after two nights of covering — but the qualification is equally clear, in that the reclaim was made on 17.6% less volume and 14,530 fewer lots, so the technicals have won the argument while the money has not yet paid for it. Meanwhile alumina broke the 2,629 level the prior watchlist named, closing 2,614 for a new series-low at the 0.0 percentile of both windows, with open interest up 16,681 for a second consecutive build on a fall and the price now 104 and 212.21 below the two cost calibers; London went the other way, cash at $3,212.50 (−0.46%) falling from four of six averages to one as the MA10 and MA30 held by $2.55 and $1.47 both failed exactly as the prior watchlist warned, while the contango narrowed a third straight time to $3.50 and stocks held at 246,825 mt for a third session; and in the physical not one of eight calibers beat the board (two matched, six lagged) yet not a yuan of the premium was surrendered at +100 for a second session, while all three South China spreads narrowed together for the first time — which leads this edition to refine its own TEST rather than its conclusion, because the narrowing came from South China falling back rather than East China catching down, a case the prior test did not separate. On macro, October’s implied at-least-one-hike of 52.5% outranked the 47.5% hold for the first time, September fell a third straight session to 34.4%, December held at 72.7% and the dollar held 99 without extending; Brent ended four consecutive declines as the driver changed from Hormuz to Russia–Ukraine, with Ukraine striking the Ryazan refinery on August 27 and having already sanctioned five Rusal plants. Warsh speaks at 22:00 Beijing tonight, inside the night session, with no day session behind which to shelter. This brief makes no investment recommendation; the above separates confirmed data from its interpretation throughout.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 28) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether the night session’s 23,970 survives the day session, and whether MA20 (23,874.25) is reclaimed on a CLOSE for the first time. The night put all six averages behind it, but that is a night print, not a day close. A day close above 23,874.25 reclaims all six averages and ends four consecutive clear-then-fails outright, and its structural meaning exceeds any single day’s points; a close back below establishes a fifth failure and consigns the night strength to the strong-night-weak-day pattern that has recurred all week (interpretation). Note also that MA10 at 23,795.50 has flipped from resistance to support — holding it is the minimum standard for the reclaim to stand.
  • ⚑ Whether volume and open interest follow the price. The August 27 reclaim came on 17.6% less volume and 14,530 fewer lots, while the night added 2,876. If today’s day session produces price up on rising open interest, the night’s fresh length is confirmed and the rebound changes character from technical repair to money participating; if open interest keeps falling while the price rises, it remains short-covering and its durability should be discounted (interpretation). Strip out the roll when reading this: AL2611’s open interest now exceeds AL2609’s by 54,740.
  • ⚑ Which way alumina goes after printing a series low, and which way open interest goes with it. AO2610 closed 2,614, the lowest of 128 sessions, with open interest up on a fall for a second consecutive session — but the night recovered from a lower low of 2,605 to 2,625 with open interest DOWN 12,724. If open interest keeps falling while the price recovers, the short-covering reading stands and the series low may be a short-term sentiment extreme; if open interest builds again on a fresh low, shorts remain in control and the cost-side decline is not finished. Note that BOTH cost calibers (2,718 and 2,826.21) now sit 104 and 212.21 above the board, so “cost support” is no longer an available downside argument (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether LME can retake MA5 ($3,214.10) and MA10 ($3,218.30), and whether the contango flips to backwardation. Cash at $3,212.50 is only $1.60 and $5.80 beneath those two; reclaiming them takes the count from one of six back to three, while falling below MA40 ($3,205.54) loses all six for the second time since August 25. ⚑ But the curve deserves closer watching than the flat price: the contango has narrowed in three steps from $19.50 to $3.50, and if it flips to backwardation with stocks still frozen at the low of the run, nearby tightness becomes the hardest bullish argument on the London side and outweighs the flat price itself (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether spot resumes beating the board, and whether the 100 premium holds a third consecutive session. On August 27 not one caliber beat, yet not a yuan of premium was lost. If the premium erodes on a rising board, spot support is weakening materially; if it widens on a falling board, spot is still holding the floor — and those two outcomes mean completely different things, so they should not be collapsed into “did spot rise” (interpretation). Watch also whether the three South China spreads (Nanhai−Shanghai 510, Nanchu−Shanghai 240, Chalco South−East 230) narrow together again — two consecutive sessions of joint narrowing would downgrade “South China tightness is structural” from holding-in-level to actively fading (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Inventory: today’s SHFE weekly report and the new weekly ingot outflow figure, plus whether SMM’s Thursday social inventory publishes late. The prior SHFE figure is 403,797 mt (−18,300) and the prior outflow 123,200 mt (−1,000 week-on-week). If outflow rises, six weeks of destocking change character from arrival-led to consumption-led and the price support strengthens materially; if it stays flat or falls again, the standing qualification holds — and this would be the THIRD consecutive edition making the same qualification. Whether LME stocks resume moving after one change in nine prints deserves the same attention.
  • ⚑ Warsh at 22:00 Beijing tonight, and the DECEMBER reaction rather than the September one. This is the week’s only scheduled event capable of materially moving the December strip, and the SHFE night session trades it in real time with no day session behind which to shelter. If December’s implied hike probability rises materially from 72.7% and the dollar breaks above 99, macro suppression deepens and any technical reclaim in today’s day session will be tested overnight; if December eases and the dollar breaks below 99, the averages reclaim gains macro confirmation. ⚑ Watch the OCTOBER caliber alongside it: its implied at-least-one-hike has crossed above the hold for the first time at 52.5% against 47.5%, and a post-speech reinforcement of that crossover carries more meaning than a further decline in the September number (interpretation).

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变者;标注「此为推算」者为本简报依据已列示数据自行计算所得,并非原始来源发布之数值。本期沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金的全部移动平均线,均由上海期货交易所公布的 2月24日至 8月27日共 128 个交易日收盘序列精确计算;伦铝现货移动平均线由 1月2日至 8月27日共 166 个交易日的现货结算序列精确计算。作为核对说明:本期方法所算出的 8月26日各条均线,在四条价格序列上与上期完全一致。8月27日夜盘为已完成时段,但其数值取自实时行情口径,交易所自身的结算记录将于 8月28日交易日结束后公布。SMM 8月24日社会库存为二手检索转载;SMM 8月27日社会库存已连续第二期未取得。SMM 的 A00 报价、分地区成交升贴水与情绪指数已连续第五期无法取得(来源需登录),相关数值继续载入 8月20日,不应视为当期数据。氧化铝现货 2,681.62 元与盘面 2,614 元的时点不同,不构成同期基差。乌克兰对俄铝的制裁为二手来源,其对实际贸易流的影响本简报未作主张。本期对上期检验方法的修正(华南价差在盘面上行中收窄,存在「华东追平」与「华南回落」两种情形,上期未予区分),以本期已列示的现货数据为据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only figures, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” are unchanged because no new data has arrived since the prior edition; items marked “(derivation)” are calculated by this brief from the data listed and were not published as such by the original source. Every moving average for SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast aluminium alloy is computed exactly from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s published close series for the 128 trading days from February 24 to August 27; LME cash moving averages are computed exactly from the 166-session cash settlement series from January 2 to August 27. Stated as a check: this edition’s method reproduces the prior edition’s August 26 averages exactly on all four price series. The August 27 night session is a completed session, but its figures are taken from a real-time market feed — the exchange’s own settled record for that session publishes after the August 28 trading day closes. SMM’s August 24 social inventory print is relayed from secondary retrieval; SMM’s August 27 print was unretrievable for a second consecutive edition. SMM’s A00 quote, regional transaction premia and sentiment indices have been unretrievable for five consecutive editions behind a login wall, and the figures carried are August 20’s and should not be read as current. The alumina spot figure of 2,681.62 and the board’s 2,614 carry different dates and do not constitute a same-day basis. Ukraine’s sanctions on Rusal are from a secondary source, and this brief makes no claim about their effect on actual trade flows. This edition’s revision of its own prior test — that a South China spread narrowing on a rising board admits two cases, East China catching up and South China falling back, which the prior test did not separate — rests on the spot data listed in this edition.