Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: SHFE reclaims all six moving averages at 23,920 for the first time since August 12. Warsh's speech doubles September hike odds.周末版:沪铝收于 23,920,自 8 月 12 日以来首次站上全部六条均线;沃什讲话令 9 月加息概率翻倍。

Saturday, August 29, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Saturday August 29 (Asia), covering the Friday August 28 session in full. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete August 28 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards from the exchange's own daily file; the SHFE weekly warehouse report for August 24–28 and the August 28 daily warrant report, BOTH of which the prior watchlist asked for; the August 28 LME cash and 3M official settlements, the LME electronic close and the LME stock report; the full cnal spot table and Chalco's complete four-region producer quotation for August 28, plus Chalco's five-region ALUMINA quotation; SMM's Thursday August 27 social inventory print, retrieved after TWO editions of absence; SMM's absolute A00 quotation and premium, retrieved after FIVE editions behind a login wall; the Japan MJP premium; SMM's weekly downstream operating rates; the August 28 NIGHT SESSION, which has CLOSED and which traded the Warsh keynote in real time; and the macro repricing that followed it. ⚑ ONE METHOD NOTE: the SHFE close series now runs 159 trading days (January 5 to August 28) on aluminium and alumina and 99 on cast alloy, and the LME cash series 167 sessions (January 2 to August 28). ⚑ Stated as a CHECK rather than a claim: this edition's method reproduces the prior edition's August 27 moving averages on ALL FOUR price series and all six horizons — eighteen SHFE averages and six LME averages, every one exact to the yuan and to the cent, MA60 included. Five daily files missing from the prior retrieval (May 11, May 25, June 3, June 9, June 15) were recovered this edition, which is what closes the MA60 gap. ⊘ STILL NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM's regional transaction premia and its shipment/purchasing sentiment indices (a SIXTH consecutive edition); SMM's August 28 alumina spot assessment and August 28 A00 (Saturday, no broker publication); the CME FedWatch OCTOBER and DECEMBER distributions for August 28; the Shanghai Huatong spot caliber, absent from the August 28 cnal table for the fourth time in five sessions; and SHFE cast-alloy registered warrants for August 28.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE PRIMARY TEST THE PRIOR WATCHLIST SET WAS PASSED — ALL SIX AVERAGES RECLAIMED ON A CLOSE AL2610 closed 23,920, which is 30.75 ABOVE MA20 at 23,889.25. It is the first day-session close above all six averages since August 12 — eleven sessions
⚑ AND THE AVERAGE ROSE INTO IT AND WAS CLEARED ANYWAY MA20 rose 15.00 to 23,889.25 while the price rose 100. The reclaim is not an artefact of the average falling to meet the price (derivation)
⚑ AL2610: close 23,920, +100 (+0.42%) close-to-close Open 23,850, high 24,025, low 23,840, settlement 23,930, prior settlement 23,835. Close vs prior settlement +85 (+0.36%); settlement vs prior settlement +95 (+0.40%)
⚑ THE FOUR-SESSION CLEAR-THEN-FAIL STREAK IS OVER The give-back sequence ran 100 → 185 → 315 → 130 → 105, but this time the close finished ABOVE MA20 rather than beneath it, so it is not a fifth failure (derivation)
⚑ AND THE SETTLEMENT AGREES FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION Settlement 23,930 is 40.75 above MA20; the close 23,920 is 30.75 above. Both calibers say the same thing, as they did on August 27
⚑ OPEN INTEREST ROSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE SESSIONS: +248 To 247,909, after −6,256 and −14,530. Complex OI 597,807 (+3,337), also the first rise. ⊘ But it is a small number and volume fell 18.7% to 152,178, a third consecutive decline
⚑ Retracement of the Aug 3–12 advance improves again: 72.9% → 57.4% Launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; the close of 23,920 is 275 above the launch. The best reading since August 17 (derivation)
20-session close percentile 32.4% → 46.8%; 60-session 68.2% → 74.1% 20-session range 23,595–24,290; 60-session range 22,445–24,435 (June 4's 24,460 left the window). Both improve for a second session (derivation)
⚑ ON THE WEEK: AL2610 +210 (+0.89%), ending two consecutive losing weeks Week open 23,800, high 24,075, low 23,695, close 23,920. Weekly open interest −19,529; weekly volume 885,239 (exchange weekly file)
⚑ THE NIGHT SESSION TRADED WARSH LIVE — AND KEPT EVERY AVERAGE BEHIND IT Aug 28 night: open 23,935, high 23,990, low 23,845, last 23,925, VWAP 23,919.97, volume 79,417. The last print is still 35.75 above MA20
⊘ But the night gave back its high and shed 1,514 lots of open interest OI 246,395 against the day's 247,909. The high of 23,990 came before 22:00 Beijing; the low of 23,845 came after (interpretation)
⊘ AND THE PHYSICAL DID THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE BOARD — NOT ONE OF NINE CALIBERS ROSE Against the board's +100: Changjiang 0 and Zhongyuan 0 were FLAT; Shanghai spot −20, Chalco East −20, Chalco SW −30, Nanhai −40, Chalco South −40, Chalco Central −40, Nanchu −50 all FELL
⊘ THE BASIS COLLAPSED 120 POINTS IN ONE SESSION: +100 → −20 Shanghai spot 23,900 against the board's 23,920. The premium this brief tracked as unchanged through August 26–27 is gone and inverted (derivation)
⊘ AND CHALCO CUT ALL FOUR REGIONS ON A DAY THE BOARD ROSE 100 East 23,900 (−20), South 24,110 (−40), Southwest 23,940 (−30), Central 23,790 (−40). The producer moved against the board, not with it
⊘ ALL THREE SOUTH CHINA SPREADS NARROWED FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION Nanhai−Shanghai 510 → 490; Nanchu−Shanghai 240 → 210; Chalco South−East 230 → 210. This is the exact condition the prior edition set (derivation)
⊘ SO THIS BRIEF DOWNGRADES ITS OWN CLAIM, AS IT SAID IT WOULD 'South China tightness is structural' moves from HOLDING-IN-LEVEL to ACTIVELY FADING. The level is still wide at 490 against a 350 start, but the direction has now reversed twice (interpretation)
⚑ SMM's ABSOLUTE A00 QUOTE IS BACK AFTER FIVE EDITIONS BEHIND A LOGIN WALL August 27: A00 23,920 yuan/mt, +50 day-on-day; premium/discount −10, unchanged. Relayed via a broker morning note, not read from SMM directly (secondary)
⚑ ALUMINA'S SERIES LOW LASTED EXACTLY ONE SESSION: AO2610 CLOSED 2,648 (+34, +1.30%) Open 2,614, high 2,651, low 2,605, settlement 2,629 (+5). The August 27 close of 2,614 was the lowest of 159 retrieved sessions and it was not revisited
⚑ AND OPEN INTEREST FELL 52,356 — THE LARGEST SINGLE-SESSION DECLINE THIS BRIEF HAS RECORDED To 228,594, after +14,282 and +16,681 on the two prior falls. Price up on collapsing open interest is short-covering, which is exactly the case the prior watchlist named
⚑ ALUMINA'S PERCENTILES JUMP OFF THE FLOOR: 0.0% → 30.1% and 0.0% → 10.5% 20-session close range 2,614–2,727; 60-session 2,614–2,939. A day earlier the price WAS the floor of both windows (derivation)
⊘ BUT IT IS STILL BELOW ALL SIX OF ITS OWN AVERAGES, FOR A FOURTH SESSION MA5 2,653.20 (−5.20), MA10 2,667.30 (−19.30), MA20 2,676.45 (−28.45), MA30 2,687.90 (−39.90), MA40 2,695.95 (−47.95), MA60 2,750.60 (−102.60). MA5 is now only 5.20 away
⚑ AND THE ALUMINA NIGHT SESSION CLEARED FOUR OF SIX — BY ONE-TENTH OF A YUAN ON THE FOURTH Night: open 2,656, high 2,700, low 2,649, last 2,688, VWAP 2,685.21, volume 174,123; OI 229,401 (+807). 2,688 is 0.10 above MA30 at 2,687.90 (derivation)
⚑ THE COST GAP NARROWED BUT DID NOT CLOSE: 70 and 178.21 below the two calibers Against 2,718 (July full cost) and 2,826.21 (second caliber), from 104 and 212.21. ⊘ Both listed, NOT reconciled. Alumina/aluminium ratio 11.07%, from 10.97%
⚑ AND CHALCO's OWN ALUMINA QUOTES SIT ABOVE THE BOARD IN EVERY REGION August 28: Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660 — 12 to 137 above AO2610's 2,648. NEW caliber this edition
⊘ AD2610 23,215 (−20, −0.09%) — five of six held, but it did not follow primary MA5 23,131.00, MA10 23,091.50, MA30 23,195.33, MA40 23,132.50, MA60 23,094.75 all held; MA20 23,269.00 is 54.00 above. Primary went to six of six, cast alloy did not
⊘ And the cast-alloy discount REWIDENED after four consecutive narrowings AD−AL: 770 → 675 → 630 → 585 → 705. ⚑ But the night reversed it back — AD's night last of 23,340 against AL's 23,925 returns it to 585 (derivation)
⚑ LONDON WENT FROM ONE OF SIX AVERAGES TO THREE — EXACTLY AS THE WATCHLIST SAID Cash $3,222.00 (+$9.50, +0.30%). MA5 $3,213.10 (+$8.90), MA10 $3,215.70 (+$6.30), MA40 $3,209.09 (+$12.91) all reclaimed. The prior edition named 'one of six back to three'
⚑ AND THE CONTANGO REVERSED ITS ENTIRE COLLAPSE IN A SINGLE SESSION: $3.50 → $19.00 3M $3,241.00 (+$25.00, +0.78%). Sequence $19.50 → $18.50 → $11.50 → $3.50 → $19.00 — back to where the narrowing began, in one step (derivation)
⚑ LME STOCKS MOVED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR PRINTS: 246,725 mt (−100) A new low of the run, and the first change since August 25. Two changes of 100 tonnes across ten prints since August 17. LME aluminium ALLOY stocks 1,500 mt, unchanged
⊘ Three LME calibers, three numbers, again Westmetall cash $3,222.00 and 3M $3,241.00; cnal's electronic 3M close $3,242 (+$18 on its own $3,224 prior); TradingEconomics $3,242.15 (+0.18%). None reconciled
⚑ SHFE-LME ratio expands again: 7.4148 → 7.4239 Shanghai +0.42% against London +0.30%. Sequence 7.4514 → 7.3617 → 7.4148 → 7.4239 (derivation)
⚑ WARSH DELIVERED HIS KEYNOTE AT 22:00 BEIJING — INSIDE THE NIGHT SESSION He said this summer's better-than-expected inflation readings 'do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved' and that the Fed has more work to do, while declining to give forward guidance
⚑ AND SEPTEMBER REPRICED BY ROUGHLY TWENTY-ONE POINTS IN ONE AFTERNOON September 16 hike odds ~55.7% on one caliber and ~59% on another, against 34.4% on August 27. ⊘ The two calibers are listed and NOT reconciled
⊘ THE OCTOBER AND DECEMBER STRIPS FOR AUGUST 28 WERE NOT RETRIEVABLE The prior edition's October crossover (52.5% hike against 47.5% hold) and December (72.7%) are carried at August 27 and should NOT be read as post-speech (interpretation)
⚑ THE DOLLAR BROKE OUT: 99.677, +0.518 (+0.52%) Monthly −1.20% (from −1.75%), yearly +1.95% (from +1.38%). ⊘ A second caliber had 99.21 (+0.30%) shortly after the speech; the close ran higher still. Not reconciled
⚑ AND THE REST OF THE MACRO COMPLEX CONFIRMED THE HAWKISH READ US 2-year yield 4.31%; gold −0.94% to $4,559.79/oz; precious-metals miners among the worst performers within 25 minutes of the speech (secondary)
⚑ YET LONDON CLOSED HIGHER AFTER THE SPEECH, WHICH IS THE EDITION'S CLEANEST NON-CONFIRMATION The LME cash settlement is struck before 15:00 London and is a PRE-speech print, but the electronic 3M close at $3,242 is POST-speech and it was UP $18 (derivation)
⚑ SMM's THURSDAY SOCIAL INVENTORY IS BACK: 852,000 mt, −23,000 w/w — a SEVENTH consecutive draw August 27 print, retrieved after two editions of absence. Series 875,000 (Aug 20) → 860,000 (Aug 24) → 852,000 (Aug 27); −154,000 mt since July 23
⊘ BUT A RIVAL INVENTORY CALIBER PUTS THE SAME DATE AT 821,000 mt, −14,000 w/w Carried from a broker note. It is not SMM's social series. Both are listed and NOT reconciled, and this brief does not average them
⚑ SHFE's WEEKLY WAREHOUSE REPORT PUBLISHED — AND THE DRAW SLOWED Aluminium 391,498 mt for August 24–28, −12,299 w/w against the prior week's −18,300. Registered warrants 245,510 (−28,691 w/w; −5,664 on Friday alone)
⚑ Bonded inventory is a NEW caliber this edition: 116,000 mt, −1,000 w/w Shanghai plus Guangdong bonded aluminium at August 27 (SMM, relayed). Alumina SHFE weekly warehouse 323,736 mt, −38,827 w/w
⚑ EGA RESTARTED A QUARTER OF AL TAWEELAH: 315 of 1,262 cells, up from 18% Announced August 26. Full production targeted Q1 2027; ~$400m restoration; ~1,000 workers. Potlines energised May 26, July 13 and August 3
⚑ AND JAPAN's MJP SPOT PREMIUM FELL $10 TO $270/mt August 27 caliber. Overseas tightness easing at the margin — the first premium print this brief has carried in this sequence (secondary)
⚑ DOWNSTREAM OPERATING RATES, week to August 27: mixed, not improving Extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire & cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). Two up, one flat, one down (SMM, relayed)
Brent $88.29 (−0.26%), and −5% on the week Gulf exports recovered to ~15–16 mb/d against March's 5–6 mb/d low and a 22–24 mb/d pre-conflict level. The Hormuz risk premium keeps draining (secondary)
Canada's 50% aluminium counter-tariff takes effect September 8 — 10 days away Retaliation covering about $20bn of US goods, with steel and aluminium counter-tariffs doubled (restated)
⚑ CHINA's AUGUST MANUFACTURING PMI PUBLISHES MONDAY, THE NEXT TRADING DAY July printed 49.2 against a 50.1 consensus — a contraction reading and a miss. It lands on the same day the market first trades the post-Warsh strip in a day session
⚑ METHOD: eighteen SHFE averages and six LME averages reproduce the prior edition EXACTLY Five previously-missing daily files (May 11, May 25, June 3, June 9, June 15) were recovered, which closes the MA60 gap on all four series

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 8月29日(周六)上午,完整覆盖 8月28日(周五)交易日。
  • ⚑ 下文全部 8月28日的沪铝、氧化铝与铸造铝合金价格、结算价、成交量、持仓量,均为上海期货交易所公布的 8月28日交易日(8月27日夜盘 + 8月28日日盘合并)数据。
  • ⚑ 8月28日夜盘(21:00 至 8月29日 01:00,归属 8月31日交易日)已经收盘,本期按「已完成时段」列示;其数值取自实时行情口径,交易所自身的结算记录将于 8月31日交易日结束后公布。⚑ 该时段实时交易了沃什的演讲。
  • ⚑ 本期方法说明:沪铝与氧化铝收盘序列为 159 个交易日(1月5日至 8月28日),铸造铝合金 99 个,伦铝现货 167 个(1月2日至 8月28日)。⚑ 并作为核对而非主张说明:本期方法所算出的 8月27日各条均线,在四条价格序列、六个窗口上与上期完全一致——沪端十八条、伦端六条,元位与美分位均无差异,MA60 亦在内。上期缺失的五个日文件(5月11日、5月25日、6月3日、6月9日、6月15日)于本期补齐,这正是 MA60 口径得以完全对齐的原因。
  • ⊘ 本期未取得:SMM 分地区成交升贴水与出货/采购情绪指数(连续第六期);SMM 8月28日氧化铝现货评估与 8月28日 A00 报价(周六,机构无发布);CME FedWatch 8月28日的 10 月与 12 月分布;世铝网 8月28日表中缺失的上海华通口径(五个交易日内第四次缺失);以及上期所 8月28日铸造铝合金注册仓单。

⚑ 沪铝 AL2610:六条均线全部收复——8月12日以来首次

  • AL2610(主力):开 23,850,高 24,025,低 23,840,收 23,920,结算 23,930,前结算 23,835。收盘对收盘 +100(+0.42%);收盘对前结算 +85(+0.36%);结算对前结算 +95(+0.40%)。成交 152,178 手(前值 187,249,−35,071,−18.7%);持仓 247,909 手(前值 247,661,+248)。
  • ⚑ 上期观察清单的原话是「若今日日盘收在 23,874.25 之上,则六条均线全部收复,连续四个交易日的『越过又交还』被彻底终结」。8月28日达成——且是在 MA20 自身上行至 23,889.25 元之后仍被越过 30.75 元。
  • ⚑ 这是自 8月12日以来首次有日盘收盘价高于全部六条均线,距今十一个交易日,而 8月12日正是 8月3–12日涨势的顶点。
  • ⚑ 连续四个交易日「盘中越过、收盘交还」的序列就此终结:交还幅度序列为 100 → 185 → 315 → 130 → 105,而本次收盘落在均线之上而非之下,故不构成第五次失败(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 结算价与收盘价连续第二个交易日符号一致:结算 23,930 元高于 MA20 40.75 元,收盘 23,920 元高于 30.75 元。
  • ⚑ 持仓量三个交易日以来首次增加(+248 手),品种合计持仓亦首次增加(+3,337 手至 597,807 手)。⊘ 但幅度极小,且成交量连续第三个交易日下降(−18.7%)。技术面的争论已被赢下两次,而资金只买了一次单,且买得很轻(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 移仓仍在推进:AL2611 持仓 132,527 手(+8,674),AL2609 持仓 63,041 手(−6,072),AL2611 已高出 AL2609 69,486 手。
  • AL2609 收 23,910;AL2611 收 23,915;AL2612 收 23,875;AL2701 收 23,800;AL2702 收 23,770;AL2703 收 23,790;AL2704 收 23,775;AL2705 收 23,775;AL2706 收 23,815;AL2707 收 23,835;AL2708 收 23,830。品种合计成交 246,895 手(−19.7%)。

⚑ 均线:六条全部落于收盘之后

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,804.00(精确,+42.00),收盘高出 116.00 元,连续第五个交易日守住。
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,799.00(精确,+3.50),收盘高出 121.00 元,连续第二个交易日守住。
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,889.25(精确,+15.00),收盘高出 30.75 元。⚑ 该均线本身上行 15.00 元,而价格上行 100 元——收复来自价格一侧,而非均线下移(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ MA30 = 23,692.67(+23.83);MA40 = 23,552.12(+25.62);MA60 = 23,581.33(−9.00),均为精确值。收盘分别高出 227.33、367.88 与 338.67 元。
  • ⚑ 对 8月3–12日涨幅的回撤由 72.9% 改善至 57.4%(起点 23,645,顶点 24,290,幅度 645;收盘高出起点 275 元),为 8月17日以来最佳(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位由 32.4% 升至 46.8%(区间 23,595–24,290);60 日分位由 68.2% 升至 74.1%(区间 22,445–24,435,6月4日的 24,460 已离开窗口)。两项连续第二个交易日改善(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 周度口径(交易所周报):AL2610 周开 23,800,周高 24,075,周低 23,695,周收 23,920,周涨 +210 元(+0.89%),终结连续两周下跌;周度持仓变动 −19,529 手,周成交 885,239 手。

⚑ 8月28日夜盘:实时交易了沃什的演讲

  • ⚑ AL2610 夜盘(8月28日 21:00 至 8月29日 01:00,已收盘):开 23,935,高 23,990,低 23,845,最后一笔 23,925,均价 23,919.97,成交 79,417 手,持仓 246,395 手(较日盘 247,909 手减少 1,514 手)。
  • ⚑ 推算:夜盘最后一笔 23,925 元仍高于 MA20(23,889.25)35.75 元,即六条均线在夜盘结束时依然全部落于印记之后。
  • ⊘ 但结构是有代价的:最高 23,990 元出现在北京时间 22:00 之前,最低 23,845 元出现在其后,而 23,845 元低于 MA20 44.25 元。夜盘既未守住自身高点,亦未增仓(此为解读)。
  • AL2611 夜盘:开 23,950,高 23,975,低 23,845,最后一笔 23,915,持仓 135,062 手(+2,535)。

⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610:序列新低只维持了一个交易日

  • AO2610:开 2,614,高 2,651,低 2,605,收 2,648,结算 2,629,前结算 2,624。收盘对收盘 +34(+1.30%);结算对前结算 +5(+0.19%)。成交 226,603 手(前值 209,710,+8.1%);持仓 228,594 手(前值 280,950,−52,356)。
  • ⚑ 减仓 52,356 手,为本简报在四条序列上所录得的最大单日持仓降幅。此前两个下跌交易日分别为 +14,282 与 +16,681 手。价格上行伴随持仓大幅减少,即空头回补——这正是上期观察清单所设两种情形中的第一种。
  • ⚑ 8月27日的 2,614 元(159 个交易日序列最低收盘)在收盘口径上未被再次触及;8月28日的最低 2,605 元与 8月27日夜盘最低持平,亦未创新低。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位由 0.0% 升至 30.1%(区间 2,614–2,727);60 日分位由 0.0% 升至 10.5%(区间 2,614–2,939)(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 但仍连续第四个交易日低于全部六条均线:MA5 2,653.20(−5.20)、MA10 2,667.30(−19.30)、MA20 2,676.45(−28.45)、MA30 2,687.90(−39.90)、MA40 2,695.95(−47.95)、MA60 2,750.60(−102.60)。MA5 现仅差 5.20 元。
  • ⚑ 夜盘续涨:开 2,656,高 2,700,低 2,649,最后一笔 2,688,均价 2,685.21,成交 174,123 手,持仓 229,401 手(+807)。⚑ 推算:2,688 元高于 MA30(2,687.90)0.10 元,即夜盘印记越过六条均线中的四条。
  • AO2609 收 2,640;AO2611 收 2,664;AO2612 收 2,679;AO2701 收 2,689。品种合计成交 386,795 手;合计持仓 577,141 手(−23,820)。
  • ⚑ 周度口径:AO2610 周开 2,698,周高 2,718,周低 2,605,周收 2,648,周跌 −50 元(−1.85%);周度持仓变动 −56,316 手。

铸造铝合金 AD2610:未跟随原铝

  • AD2610:开 23,255,高 23,305,低 23,100,收 23,215,结算 23,190,前结算 23,190。收盘对收盘 −20(−0.09%);结算持平。成交 5,830 手;持仓 10,308 手(−1,358)。
  • ⚑ 均线:MA5 23,131.00、MA10 23,091.50、MA30 23,195.33、MA40 23,132.50、MA60 23,094.75 均被守住;MA20 23,269.00 高于收盘 54.00 元。仍为收复五条。⊘ 原铝已升至六条,铸造铝合金未跟随,两者的结构对齐在一个交易日后即告结束。
  • ⚑ 推算:对原铝的贴水在连续四次收窄后重新扩大——770 → 675 → 630 → 585 → 705。⚑ 但夜盘再度反转:AD 夜盘最后一笔 23,340 元对 AL 的 23,925 元,贴水回到 585 元。
  • AD2609 收 23,200;AD2611 收 23,270(持仓 9,394,+1,210);AD2612 收 23,265。品种合计成交 10,904 手,合计持仓 20,842 手。

⚑ 伦铝:由收复一条回到三条,而 contango 把三步的收窄一次还清

  • ⚑ 伦铝现货结算 3,222.00 美元(+9.50,+0.30%);三个月 3,241.00 美元(+25.00,+0.78%)。官方报价:现货买 3,221.50 / 卖 3,222.00;三个月买 3,240.00 / 卖 3,241.00。
  • ⚑ 均线:MA5 3,213.10 美元(收复,+8.90)、MA10 3,215.70 美元(收复,+6.30)、MA40 3,209.09 美元(收复,+12.91);MA20 3,249.62 美元(高出 27.62)、MA30 3,229.72 美元(高出 7.72)、MA60 3,245.79 美元(高出 23.79)。⚑ 六条中收复三条,由上期的一条回升——恰为上期观察清单所写的「由一条回到三条」。
  • ⚑ 推算:contango 由 3.50 美元重新扩大至 19.00 美元。序列为 19.50 → 18.50 → 11.50 → 3.50 → 19.00,即三步的收窄在一个交易日内被全部交还。⊘ 上期曾明确指出「若转为 backwardation,则近端紧张将成为伦敦一侧最硬的多头论据」——该情形未出现,且方向相反。本简报据实记录自身所标示的多头论据未能兑现(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,725 吨(−100),为四个印记以来首次变动,且为本轮新低。自 8月17日以来的十个印记中,库存变动过两次、每次 100 吨。伦铝合金库存 1,500 吨,持平。
  • ⊘ 三套伦端口径,三个数字:Westmetall 现货 3,222.00 / 三个月 3,241.00;世铝网电子盘三个月收盘 3,242 美元(其自身前收 3,224,+18);TradingEconomics 3,242.15 美元(+0.18%)。三者不作调和。
  • ⚑ 推算:沪伦比值由 7.4148 扩大至 7.4239(上海 +0.42% 对伦敦 +0.30%)。序列 7.4514 → 7.3617 → 7.4148 → 7.4239。
  • ⚑ 推算:周度口径,伦铝现货 3,222.00 美元对 8月21日的 3,227.00 美元,周跌 5.00 美元(−0.15%);而上海周涨 0.89%。本周内外分化。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⊘ 8月28日现货:九套口径无一上涨,基差由 +100 塌缩至 −20

  • ⚑ 世铝网口径,8月28日:有色宝长江 23,920 元(0,区间 23,900–23,940);上海现货(SME)23,900 元(−20,区间 23,880–23,920);中原有色 23,920 元(0);南海有色(佛山 A00 送厂)24,390 元(−40,区间 24,340–24,440);广东南储(华南 Al99.7)24,110 元(−50,区间 24,080–24,140);广东南储华东 23,900 元(−20)。⊘ 上海华通口径在 8月28日表中仍未显示,为五个交易日内第四次缺失。
  • ⚑ 中铝报价,8月28日——四个地区全部取得,连续第三期完整:华东 23,900 元(−20)、华南 24,110 元(−40)、西南 23,940 元(−30)、华中 23,790 元(−40)。⚑ 在盘面上涨 100 元的交易日,生产商四个地区全部下调。
  • ⚑ 推算:盘面收盘对收盘为 +100。九套现货口径中,长江与中原以 0 持平,其余七套(上海现货 −20、中铝华东 −20、中铝西南 −30、南海 −40、中铝华南 −40、中铝华中 −40、南储 −50)全部下跌。无一上涨。
  • ⚑ 推算:基差单日塌缩 120 点——上海现货 23,900 元低于盘面 23,920 元 20 元,而 8月26日与 8月27日均为 +100 元。现货由升水转为贴水,为本轮首次。中铝华东同为 −20 元。
  • ⚑ 推算:南海减上海 490 元(由 510 收窄);南储减上海 210 元(由 240 收窄);中铝华南减华东 210 元(由 230 收窄)。⚑ 三条华南价差连续第二个交易日同步收窄。
  • ⚑ 推算:长江减上海 +20 元(由 0 扩大);中铝西南减华东 +40 元(由 +50 收窄);中铝华中减华东 −110 元(由 −90 扩大),华中仍为九套口径中最低。
  • ⚑ SMM 口径(经机构晨报转引,8月27日):SMM A00 铝现货均价 23,920 元/吨,环比 +50 元;SMM A00 升贴水 −10 元/吨,环比持平。⚑ 这是本简报连续五期未取得 SMM 绝对报价之后首次取得,来源为二手转引而非直读。
  • ⚑ SMM 口径(8月27日):日本 MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨,日环比 −10 美元;进口盈亏 −2,890.49 元/吨,较上一交易日 +43 元(二手转引)。
  • 氧化铝现货:SMM 综合价回落至 2,676 元/吨(8月27日口径,较此前载入的 2,681.62 元下降)。⚑ 中铝氧化铝挂牌(8月28日,本期新增口径):山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660 元——五个地区均高于 AO2610 盘面的 2,648 元,幅度 12 至 137 元。中国以外 363–364 美元/吨 FOB 东澳(转载)。
  • ADC12 报 23,900 元/吨(SMM,8月20日周度口径,转载);海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元/吨(转载);佛山 A00(SMM 口径)24,150 元、无锡 A00 贴水 −160 元(8月27日,二手转引)。

解读:盘面赢了,金属没跟

  • ⚑ 现货跑赢盘面的序列已呈:一个交易日 → 一个交易日 → 四个交易日 → 一个交易日 → 零。本期是本轮首次出现「盘面上涨而九套口径无一上涨」的组合(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 升水在 8月26日与 8月27日两个交易日内原封不动地守住 100 元,本简报当时称其含义强于现货是否跑赢。该判断在本期被检验:升水不是被侵蚀,而是被一次性交出,并越过零点转为贴水。这说明前两个交易日的「不被侵蚀」是持货方未跟随上涨,而非现货自身有支撑(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 上期为自身设定的下调条件是「连续两个交易日同步收窄」。该条件已满足,故本期作出下调:「华南紧张为结构性」由「水平上成立」下调为「正在消退」。本简报不主张区域溢价已经消失——490 元仍远高于序列起点的 350 元;本简报主张的是方向已经反转,且连续八个交易日扩大之后的连续两个交易日收窄,已由数据点变为趋势变化(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

⚑ 三份此前缺失的报表同日到齐,而去库速率放缓

  • ⚑ SMM 8月27日(周四)国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存 85.2 万吨,较上周减少 2.3 万吨,为连续第七次去库。本期取得,终结连续两期未取得(二手转引)。
  • ⚑ 序列:100.6(7月23日)→ 97.9 → 95.3 → 95.8(8月3日)→ 93.3 → 91.7 → 89.8 → 88.6 → 87.5(8月20日)→ 86.0(8月24日)→ 85.2(8月27日);自 7月23日累计去库 15.4 万吨。
  • ⊘ 口径冲突:另一机构晨报将同一日期的铝锭社库列为 82.1 万吨、周内续降 1.4 万吨。该数值并非 SMM 社会库存序列。两套口径并列,不作调和,亦不取平均。
  • ⚑ 保税库存(本期新增口径):8月27日上海与广东保税区电解铝库存合计 11.6 万吨,较上周 −0.1 万吨(二手转引)。
  • ⚑ 上期所 8月24日–8月28日库存周报(本期取得,上期观察清单所问):铝 391,498 吨,周环比 −12,299 吨;其中注册仓单(期货)245,510 吨,周环比 −28,691 吨。⚑ 推算:去库速率放缓,前值为 −18,300 吨。
  • ⚑ 上期所 8月28日仓单日报:铝 245,510 吨(日环比 −5,664);氧化铝 242,678 吨(日环比 −6,032)。
  • ⚑ 上期所氧化铝库存周报:323,736 吨,周环比 −38,827 吨。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,725 吨(−100),四个印记以来首次变动,且为本轮新低。
  • ⊘ 铝棒库存方向存在口径冲突:一份晨报称铝棒社会库存较周一小幅下滑,另一份称铝棒库存继续累积、主因铝水比例提升导致铸锭量被动收缩。两者并列,不作调和。铝棒库存前值 14.3 万吨(转载)。
  • 铸造铝合金锭社会库存 28,100 吨(环比 +2,500 吨,连续第二周累积)(转载)。⊘ 上期所 8月28日铸造铝合金注册仓单未取得。
  • ⊘ 各套库存口径的统计窗口与覆盖范围均不相同,本简报不作加总、不作相互调和。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期库存栏的净事实有两条,方向相反。第一,连续七次去库成立,且保税库存亦在减少,这是支撑;第二,上期所周度去库由 1.83 万吨放缓至 1.23 万吨,注册仓单周降 2.87 万吨而日降 0.57 万吨——即周内的仓单注销集中在前半周。去库仍在,但边际减速(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 而伦铝一侧,库存四个印记以来首次变动并创本轮新低,与 contango 的重新扩大同时发生。存量继续下降而近端相对宽松,这两条在本期是并存的,本简报不将其合并为单一结论(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 沃什:演讲落在夜盘之内,9 月定价单日重估约二十一个百分点

  • ⚑ 沃什于美东时间 8月28日上午发表其首次杰克逊霍尔主旨演讲,即北京时间当晚 22:00,时点落在沪铝夜盘之内。
  • ⚑ 演讲要点(二手来源):其表示对经济整体强度「印象深刻」,但对通胀「潜在趋势」未见改善感到担忧;明确表示「今夏的读数好于预期,但并未告诉我潜在趋势已实质改善」;承认金融条件看起来并不具限制性;表示联储「仍有工作要做」;同时拒绝提供前瞻指引或反应函数,并称「我们不应纵容一种由市场参与者主要向联储寻找下一笔交易的机制」。
  • ⚑ CME FedWatch,9月16日会议:加息概率跃升至约 55.7%(一套口径)或约 59%(另一套口径),而 8月27日为 34.4%。⊘ 两套口径并列,本简报不作调和,亦不取中值。⊘ 另有报道称演讲前「按兵不动」概率接近 70%,与本简报所载的 65.6% 不一致,一并列示、不作调和。
  • ⊘ 8月28日的 10月28日与 12月9日分布未取得。上期数值(10 月:按兵不动 47.5%、隐含至少加息一次 52.5%;12 月:隐含至少加息一次 72.7%)按 8月27日口径载入,不应被读作演讲后的水平。⚑ 这一缺口的重要性高于往常:本简报在 8月27日确立的判断是「美元跟踪的是 12 月口径而非 9 月」,因此仅凭 9 月的数字无法判定美元本次上行有多少是持久的(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 美元指数 99.677(8月28日收盘口径),+0.518(+0.52%);月度 −1.20%(前值 −1.75%),年度 +1.95%(前值 +1.38%)。⊘ 另一套口径在演讲后不久报 99.21(+0.30%),而收盘更高。两者并列,不作调和。
  • ⚑ 同步确认鹰派解读的其他资产:美国两年期国债收益率升至 4.31%;黄金 −0.94% 至 4,559.79 美元/盎司;演讲后二十五分钟内贵金属矿商已成为美股表现最差的板块之一(二手来源)。
  • ⚑ 但伦铝在演讲后收高——这是本期最干净的一条不确认。伦铝现货结算于伦敦时间 15:00 之前敲定,属演讲前印记;而电子盘三个月收盘 3,242 美元属演讲后印记,且上涨 18 美元。铝并未按黄金的方式交易这次重估(此为推算与解读)。

能源、贸易与中国宏观

  • ⚑ 布伦特 88.29 美元(8月28日),−0.23 美元(−0.26%);周度 −5%;月度 +0.23%;年度 +30.84%。
  • ⚑ 驱动因素仍是霍尔木兹风险溢价的持续流失:海湾原油出口已回升至约 1,500–1,600 万桶/日,而 3 月低点为 500–600 万桶/日、冲突前为 2,200–2,400 万桶/日;伊朗与阿曼已就通道与收益分成达成安排(二手来源)。
  • ⚑ 加拿大对铝的 50% 反制关税将于 9月8日生效,距今 10 天;所涉美国商品规模约 200 亿美元(转载)。⚑ 另有晨报提示美加贸易谈判遇阻、美国财政部拟加大长债回购数量(二手转引)。
  • ⚑ 中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI 将于 8月31日(周一,即下一交易日)发布;7 月值为 49.2,低于 50.1 的市场预期,处收缩区间。

解读:宏观本期明确偏空,但传导并不整齐

  • ⚑ 本期宏观栏的核心事实是 9 月定价的单日重估幅度,而非其绝对水平。约二十一个百分点的跳升发生在一个下午,且发生在沪铝夜盘之内——夜盘的最高价出现在演讲前,最低价出现在演讲后(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 但传导并不整齐:黄金与贵金属矿商按教科书方式反应,伦铝电子盘却在演讲后收高。这说明本次重估对铝的定价影响,更多经由美元与整体风险偏好间接传导,而非经由利率对铝的直接需求路径(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 而 10 月与 12 月口径的缺失,使本简报无法在本期完成自身的年底框架检验。这是一个被点名的缺口,也是周一最先需要补齐的一项(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

海外供应

  • ⚑ 阿联酋 EGA 阿布扎比 Al Taweelah(本期新增):1,262 台电解槽中已重启 315 台,即 25%,由此前的 18% 提升;8月26日公告。全面复产目标为 2027 年一季度;修复投入约 4 亿美元,约 1,000 人参与。三条电解系列分别于 5月26日、7月13日与 8月3日通电;每台重启电解槽约需一周达到满产(二手来源)。
  • ⚑ 日本 MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨,日环比 −10 美元——海外区域升水回落,供应紧张边际缓和(二手转引,本期新增)。
  • 巴西 Alunorte(6.3 百万吨/年):已恢复满产,不应再被计为氧化铝供应减项(转载)。
  • 澳大利亚 Tomago:获 25 亿澳元政府支持方案(转载)。
  • 俄铝:乌克兰对其五家企业(布拉茨克、萨彦诺戈尔斯克、克拉斯诺亚尔斯克等)实施制裁(二手来源,转载)。
  • 印尼新投氧化铝产能持续释放;中东运输问题催生袋装氧化铝溢价需求——氧化铝呈「外强内弱」(二手转引)。

国内供应与氧化铝

  • ⚑ SMM 口径:2026 年 7 月国内电解铝产量 387.4 万吨,同比 +1.60%,环比 +3.47%;截至 7 月底全国电解铝运行产能 4,561.4 万吨,环比增加 6.4 万吨;7 月铝水比例环比回升 1.07 个百分点至 78.28%,预期 8 月小幅走低(二手转引)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:整体产能溢出仍较严重,库存压力持续累积;国内检修产能恢复提产;几内亚政策持续推迟,市场预期的紧迫感消退,矿端供应稳定,成本支撑出现边际松动(二手转引)。
  • ⚑ 推算:AO2610 收 2,648 元,低于两套成本口径 70 元与 178.21 元(前值 104 元与 212.21 元),差距收窄但未闭合。氧化铝对铝价比值 11.07%(前值 10.97%)。
  • ⚑ 而中铝自身的氧化铝挂牌(2,660–2,785 元)在五个地区上全部高于盘面的 2,648 元——生产商挂牌与盘面之间存在 12 至 137 元的分歧(本期新增口径)。
  • 全国氧化铝库存 702.8 万吨(7月30日口径,转载)。

下游需求

  • ⚑ SMM 周度开工率(截至 8月27日当周,二手转引):铝型材 50.6%(周环比 −0.2 个百分点);铝板带 69.2%(持平);铝箔 70.7%(+0.3);铝线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。⚑ 两升、一平、一降——整体不构成旺季启动的证据(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 铝棒加工费:河南、临沂持稳,其他地区下调 20–110 元/吨;铝杆 1A60 系持稳,6/8 系持稳,低碳 6/8 系上调 42 元(二手转引)。
  • ⚑ 出口:出口增速见顶,沪伦比修复后出口利润继续收窄(二手转引)。
  • 光伏:中国组件 7 月排产约 38.5 GW,8 月约 39.3 GW;光伏铝边框开工率保持稳定(转载)。
  • ⚑ 需求端整体仍平淡:下游以刚需补库为主,华东持续到货给予贴水压力,持货商控量缓售;旺季拐点尚未出现(二手转引)。

解读

  • ⚑ 基本面本期的净变化有三条:第一,海外供应减项继续兑现为增项(EGA 由 18% 升至 25%,日本 MJP 升水下调 10 美元);第二,成本端反弹但未收复任何均线,且生产商挂牌仍高于盘面;第三,下游开工率涨跌互现,不支持「旺季已启动」的表述(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 三条合起来,基本面对本次均线收复的支持是有限的:收复主要发生在盘面,而非发生在金属(此为解读)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

分地区成交

  • ⚑ 华东:上海现货(SME)23,900 元(−20,区间 23,880–23,920),SME 自身升贴水 −10 元(环比持平);南储华东 23,900 元(−20),升贴水 −10 元(持平);中铝华东挂牌 23,900 元(−20);长江 23,920 元(0)。⚑ 推算:华东现货对 AL2610 盘面贴水 20 元,而前一交易日为升水 100 元。
  • ⚑ 华南:南海有色(佛山 A00 送厂)24,390 元(−40);广东南储 24,110 元(−50,升贴水 +200,环比 −30);中铝华南挂牌 24,110 元(−40)。⚑ 三套华南口径全部下跌,为连续第二个交易日全体落后于盘面。
  • ⚑ 华中:中原有色 23,920 元(0);中铝华中挂牌 23,790 元(−40),仍为九套口径中最低,对华东贴水由 −90 扩大至 −110 元。
  • ⚑ 西南:中铝西南挂牌 23,940 元(−30),对华东升水由 +50 收窄至 +40 元。
  • 南海电工圆铝杆(9.5mm)24,950 元(0)。
  • ⊘ 上海华通口径连续缺失,不予顺延。

⊘ 情绪指标

  • ⊘ SMM 的出货情绪指数与采购情绪指数已连续第六期无法取得(来源需登录),本简报不予估算、不予替代。
  • ⚑ 可替代的观察是基差本身:在盘面上涨 100 元的交易日,现货由升水 100 元转为贴水 20 元。这一组合在含义上强于任何情绪指数——持货方在盘面上涨中并未提价,而是让基差承担了全部调整(此为解读)。
  • 下游以刚需补库为主,华东持续到货,持货商控量缓售,整体仍属观望(二手转引)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期现货栏可以用一句话概括:绝对价格下跌,相对结构同步转弱。这与 8月27日「绝对涨幅落后、相对结构未坏」的描述完全不同,而两期之间只隔一个交易日(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 「全国总量宽松、区域分布紧张」这一框架在本期首次同时受到两侧的削弱:总量一侧,基差转为贴水;区域一侧,三条华南价差连续第二个交易日收窄。本简报因此把该框架的置信度下调,而非放弃(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

看多因素(29 项)

  • ⚑ AL2610 收 23,920 元(+100,+0.42%),高于全部六条均线,为 8月12日以来首次。
  • ⚑ MA20 自身上行 15.00 元至 23,889.25 元,仍被收盘价越过 30.75 元。
  • ⚑ 连续四个交易日「盘中越过、收盘交还」的序列终结。
  • ⚑ 结算价 23,930 元高于 MA20 40.75 元,与收盘同向,连续第二个交易日。
  • ⚑ 持仓量三个交易日以来首次增加(+248 手),品种合计 +3,337 手。
  • ⚑ 交还幅度进一步收窄至 105 元(序列 100 → 185 → 315 → 130 → 105)。
  • ⚑ 对 8月3–12日涨幅的回撤由 72.9% 改善至 57.4%,为 8月17日以来最佳。
  • ⚑ 20 日分位由 32.4% 升至 46.8%;60 日分位由 68.2% 升至 74.1%。
  • ⚑ 周线 +210 元(+0.89%),终结连续两周下跌。
  • ⚑ 夜盘最后一笔 23,925 元仍高于全部六条均线。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,648 元(+34,+1.30%),序列新低仅维持一个交易日。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝持仓减少 52,356 手,空头回补,为本简报所录最大单日降幅。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 20 日与 60 日分位由 0.0% 分别升至 30.1% 与 10.5%。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝夜盘 2,688 元越过六条均线中的四条。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝与两套成本口径的差距由 104 / 212.21 元收窄至 70 / 178.21 元。
  • ⚑ 中铝五个地区的氧化铝挂牌(2,660–2,785 元)全部高于盘面 2,648 元。
  • ⚑ 伦铝现货 3,222.00 美元(+0.30%),六条均线由收复一条回到三条。
  • ⚑ 伦铝三个月 +0.78%,涨幅大于现货。
  • ⚑ 伦铝电子盘三个月在沃什演讲后收高至 3,242 美元(+18)。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,725 吨(−100),为本轮新低。
  • ⚑ SMM 铝锭社会库存 85.2 万吨,连续第七次去库(−2.3 万吨)。
  • ⚑ 保税区库存 11.6 万吨,周环比 −0.1 万吨。
  • ⚑ 上期所铝库存 391,498 吨,周环比 −12,299 吨;注册仓单周降 28,691 吨。
  • ⚑ 上期所氧化铝库存周降 38,827 吨。
  • ⚑ 铸造铝合金夜盘 23,340 元,对原铝贴水由 705 元收窄回 585 元。
  • ⚑ SMM A00 现货 8月27日 23,920 元,环比 +50 元(本期恢复取得)。
  • ⚑ 铝箔开工率 70.7%(+0.3),铝线缆 63.0%(+0.6),两项环比改善。
  • ⚑ 铝棒低碳 6/8 系加工费上调 42 元。
  • ⚑ 布伦特周度 −5% 而年度仍 +30.84%,能源成本对电解铝的绝对压力未解除。

看空因素(28 项)

  • ⚑ 九套现货口径无一上涨:两套持平、七套下跌,而盘面 +100。
  • ⚑ 基差单日塌缩 120 点,由升水 100 元转为贴水 20 元,为本轮首次转为贴水。
  • ⚑ 中铝四个地区在盘面上涨中全部下调挂牌。
  • ⚑ 三条华南价差连续第二个交易日同步收窄,触发本简报自设的下调条件。
  • ⚑ 中铝华中对华东贴水由 −90 扩大至 −110 元。
  • ⚑ 沪铝成交量连续第三个交易日下降(−18.7%),收复由更轻的换手完成。
  • ⚑ 持仓仅增加 248 手,相对 247,909 手的存量可忽略。
  • ⚑ 夜盘由 23,990 元回落至 23,845 元,并减仓 1,514 手。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝仍连续第四个交易日低于全部六条均线。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝仍低于两套成本口径,下方成本论据仍不可用。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝周线 −50 元(−1.85%),周度持仓 −56,316 手。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝产能溢出与库存压力未变,几内亚政策推迟使成本支撑边际松动。
  • ⚑ 伦铝 contango 由 3.50 美元一次性重新扩大至 19.00 美元,近端趋紧的论据被推翻。
  • ⚑ 伦铝仍有三条均线未收复(MA20、MA30、MA60)。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比值扩大至 7.4239,上海相对伦敦继续偏贵,出口利润收窄。
  • ⚑ 上期所周度去库由 18,300 吨放缓至 12,299 吨。
  • ⚑ 沃什演讲鹰派:9 月加息概率由 34.4% 跃升至约 55.7%–59%。
  • ⚑ 美元指数 +0.52% 至 99.677,月度跌幅由 −1.75% 收窄至 −1.20%。
  • ⚑ 美国两年期收益率 4.31%,黄金 −0.94%,风险资产同步反映鹰派。
  • ⊘ 10 月与 12 月口径未取得,本简报无法确认年底压制是否加深。
  • ⚑ EGA Al Taweelah 电解槽重启比例由 18% 升至 25%(315/1,262 台)。
  • ⚑ 日本 MJP 现货升水下调 10 美元至 270 美元/吨,海外紧张缓和。
  • ⚑ 印尼新投氧化铝产能持续释放。
  • ⚑ 7 月国内电解铝产量同比 +1.60%、环比 +3.47%,运行产能环比 +6.4 万吨。
  • ⚑ 铝型材开工率 50.6%(−0.2),建筑型材需求仍弱。
  • ⚑ 铝棒加工费多数地区下调 20–110 元,替代需求减弱。
  • ⚑ 加拿大 50% 铝反制关税 9月8日生效,距今 10 天。
  • ⚑ 中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI 于周一发布,7 月值 49.2 处收缩区间且低于预期。

八 · 一句话观点

8月28日,盘面完成了它的收复而金属没有跟随:上期点名并附有具体数字的判据被通过——AL2610 收 23,920 元(+100,+0.42%),高于上行至 23,889.25 元的 MA20 30.75 元,六条均线自 8月12日以来首次全部落于日盘收盘价之后,连续四个交易日的「越过又交还」就此终结,结算价同向,持仓三个交易日以来首次增加(+248 手);但成交量连续第三个交易日下降 18.7%,该增仓幅度相对 247,909 手的存量可忽略,技术面赢下两次而资金只轻轻买了一次单。与此同时现货做了完全相反的事:在盘面上涨 100 元之际,九套口径无一上涨(两套持平、七套下跌),中铝四个地区全部下调,基差单日塌缩 120 点由升水 100 元转为贴水 20 元,为本轮首次转贴水;而三条华南价差连续第二个交易日同步收窄,恰好满足上期为自身设定的下调条件,故本简报将「华南紧张为结构性」由「水平上成立」下调为「正在消退」。氧化铝的序列新低只维持了一个交易日,AO2610 收 2,648 元(+34,+1.30%),持仓减少 52,356 手为本简报所录最大单日降幅,20 日与 60 日分位由 0.0% 升至 30.1% 与 10.5%,夜盘 2,688 元越过四条均线,但仍连续第四个交易日低于全部六条,且仍低于两套成本口径 70 元与 178.21 元;伦铝现货 3,222.00 美元(+0.30%)由收复一条均线回到三条,恰如上期所述,但 contango 由 3.50 美元一次性回到 19.00 美元,上期所标示的「近端趋紧」多头论据被推翻,而库存 246,725 吨(−100)四个印记以来首次变动并创本轮新低。宏观方面,沃什的首次杰克逊霍尔演讲落在夜盘之内,称今夏通胀读数「并未告诉我潜在趋势已实质改善」且联储「仍有工作要做」,9 月加息概率由 34.4% 跃升至约 55.7%–59%(两套口径,不作调和),美元 +0.52% 至 99.677,两年期 4.31%,黄金 −0.94%;而伦铝电子盘在演讲后收高 18 美元至 3,242 美元,是本期最干净的一条不确认。库存方面,SMM 社会库存 85.2 万吨连续第七次去库,上期所周度去库由 1.83 万吨放缓至 1.23 万吨。周线上,沪铝 +210 元(+0.89%)终结两周连跌,氧化铝 −50 元,伦铝 −5.00 美元。本简报不作任何投资建议,以上为已确认数据与其解读的分栏陈述。

九 · 周一(8月31日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 六条均线的收复能否在周一以收盘价守住,重点是 MA20(周五为 23,889.25,周一将随窗口滚动而移动)。 8月28日是十一个交易日以来首个高于全部六条均线的日盘收盘,而夜盘最后一笔 23,925 元亦在其上。若周一收盘继续高于 MA20,则「收复」由单日事件变为两日确认,其结构意义大于点数;若收盘重新跌回 MA20 之下,则本次收复与 8月27日的 MA10 收复一样,属于在更高位置重复的同一种失败模式,且是在夜盘已经交易过鹰派冲击之后发生的,含义更重(此为解读)。同时注意 MA10(23,799.00)与 MA5(23,804.00)已由压力转为支撑。
  • ⚑ 基差能否修复,以及现货是否继续与盘面反向。 8月28日九套口径无一上涨,基差由 +100 元塌缩至 −20 元。若周一现货补涨而基差回到零轴之上,则本次塌缩属盘面单日跑得过快的技术性错位;若基差在盘面回落时继续为负、或在盘面上涨时进一步转深,则说明现货端不接受当前价格,而这将是本轮反弹最实质的反证(此为解读)。同时关注三条华南价差(南海减上海 490、南储减上海 210、中铝华南减华东 210)是否连续第三个交易日收窄——若是,则本期作出的「正在消退」下调需要进一步下调为「已经消退」。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝能否收复 MA5(2,653.20,仅差 5.20 元),以及持仓在反弹中的增减方向。 AO2610 已由序列新低反弹 34 元,持仓单日减少 52,356 手。若周一价格续涨而持仓继续减少,则仍属空头回补,反弹的可持续性应打折;若价格续涨且持仓转为增加,则新增多头进场,成本端的单边下行趋势可能已经结束;若价格回落并再度逼近 2,614 元,则本次反弹被界定为一次性回补而非底部(此为解读)。中铝挂牌(2,660–2,785 元)与盘面之间 12 至 137 元的分歧亦值得跟踪。
  • ⚑ 伦铝的 contango 与库存是否继续背离。 contango 已由 3.50 美元一次性回到 19.00 美元,而库存创本轮新低 246,725 吨。若 contango 继续扩大而库存继续下降,则说明伦端的下降是注销与出库的技术性结果而非真实短缺;若 contango 重新收窄且库存续降,则近端紧张的论据被重建,而本简报本期记录该论据已被推翻,重建需要新的证据(此为解读)。同时关注现货能否守住新收复的 MA5(3,213.10)与 MA10(3,215.70),以及能否上攻 MA30(3,229.72)。
  • ⚑ 10 月与 12 月的 FedWatch 口径——这是本期被点名的缺口,也是周一最先需要补齐的一项。 本简报在 8月27日确立的判断是美元跟踪 12 月而非 9 月。若 12 月隐含加息概率自 8月27日的 72.7% 明显上行且美元站稳 99.677 之上,则宏观压制已由「时点前移」升级为「幅度加深」,其对铝的含义远大于 9 月概率本身;若 12 月口径基本未动而美元回落至 99 之下,则本次跳升主要是 9 月的重新定价,压制的总量未变(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI(周一发布,7 月值 49.2)。 这是下一交易日唯一一项既定的国内宏观数据,且与市场首次在日盘中交易演讲后的利率曲线同日。若读数回到 50 之上,则「旺季」叙事获得第一项宏观侧证据,可与库存的第七次去库形成配合;若继续处于收缩区间,则本期已经转弱的现货结构将失去其最后一项前瞻性支撑(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 库存的两条线:SMM 下一期社会库存的去库速率,以及上期所仓单是否继续注销。 上期所周度去库已由 1.83 万吨放缓至 1.23 万吨,注册仓单周降 2.87 万吨而周五单日降 0.57 万吨。若下一期社会库存去库幅度继续收窄,则连续七周的去库进入尾声,而这一支撑正是本轮所有多头论据中最稳定的一条;若去库重新加速且出库量同步回升,则去库性质由到货驱动转为消费驱动,其价格支撑显著增强(此为解读)。⊘ 并注意两套库存口径(85.2 万吨与 82.1 万吨)本期并未调和,后续以哪一套为准需继续观察。

1 · Market Performance

Stated first: the writing point and the calibers

  • This edition is written on the morning of Saturday, August 29, covering the Friday August 28 session in full.
  • ⚑ Every August 28 SHFE, alumina and cast-alloy price, settlement, volume and open-interest figure below is the August 28 trading day (August 27 night plus August 28 day, combined) as published by the exchange.
  • ⚑ The August 28 NIGHT SESSION (21:00 August 28 to 01:00 August 29, belonging to the August 31 trading day) has CLOSED and is carried here as a completed session; its figures come from a real-time feed and the exchange’s own settled record publishes after the August 31 close. ⚑ That session traded the Warsh keynote in real time.
  • ⚑ METHOD: the SHFE close series runs 159 trading days (January 5 to August 28) on aluminium and alumina and 99 on cast alloy; the LME cash series runs 167 sessions (January 2 to August 28). ⚑ Stated as a CHECK rather than a claim: this edition’s method reproduces the prior edition’s August 27 moving averages on all four price series and all six horizons — eighteen SHFE averages and six LME averages, every one exact, MA60 included. Five daily files missing from the prior retrieval (May 11, May 25, June 3, June 9, June 15) were recovered this edition, which is what closes the MA60 gap.
  • ⊘ NOT retrievable this edition: SMM’s regional transaction premia and sentiment indices (a SIXTH consecutive edition); SMM’s August 28 alumina assessment and August 28 A00 (Saturday, no broker publication); the CME FedWatch OCTOBER and DECEMBER distributions for August 28; the Shanghai Huatong caliber, absent for the fourth time in five sessions; and SHFE cast-alloy registered warrants for August 28.

⚑ SHFE AL2610: all six averages reclaimed on a close — the first since August 12

  • AL2610 (most-traded): open 23,850, high 24,025, low 23,840, close 23,920, settlement 23,930, prior settlement 23,835. Close-to-close +100 (+0.42%); close versus prior settlement +85 (+0.36%); settlement versus prior settlement +95 (+0.40%). Volume 152,178 lots (from 187,249, −35,071, −18.7%); open interest 247,909 (from 247,661, +248).
  • ⚑ The prior watchlist wrote: “A day close above 23,874.25 reclaims all six averages and ends four consecutive clear-then-fails outright.” August 28 did it — and did it after MA20 itself ROSE to 23,889.25, which the close cleared by 30.75.
  • ⚑ It is the first day-session close above every one of the six averages since August 12 — eleven sessions ago, and the peak of the August 3–12 advance.
  • ⚑ The four-session clear-then-fail sequence is over. The give-back sequence reads 100 → 185 → 315 → 130 → 105, but this time the close finished ABOVE the average rather than beneath it, so it does not constitute a fifth failure (derivation).
  • ⚑ And the settlement agrees for a second consecutive session: settlement 23,930 is 40.75 above MA20; the close 23,920 is 30.75 above.
  • ⚑ Open interest rose for the first time in three sessions (+248), and complex open interest rose for the first time too (+3,337 to 597,807). ⊘ But the magnitude is small and volume fell for a third consecutive session (−18.7%). The technical argument has been won twice; the money has paid for it once, and lightly (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The roll continues: AL2611 open interest 132,527 (+8,674) against AL2609’s 63,041 (−6,072) — AL2611 now exceeds AL2609 by 69,486.
  • AL2609 closed 23,910; AL2611 23,915; AL2612 23,875; AL2701 23,800; AL2702 23,770; AL2703 23,790; AL2704 23,775; AL2705 23,775; AL2706 23,815; AL2707 23,835; AL2708 23,830. Complex volume 246,895 (−19.7%).

⚑ The averages: all six behind the close

  • ⚑ MA5 = 23,804.00 (exact, +42.00). Held by 116.00 for a FIFTH consecutive session.
  • ⚑ MA10 = 23,799.00 (exact, +3.50). Held by 121.00 for a second consecutive session.
  • ⚑ MA20 = 23,889.25 (exact, +15.00). The close is 30.75 ABOVE it. ⚑ The average itself rose 15.00 while the price rose 100 — the reclaim came from the price side, not from the average falling to meet it (derivation).
  • ⚑ MA30 = 23,692.67 (+23.83); MA40 = 23,552.12 (+25.62); MA60 = 23,581.33 (−9.00), all exact. The close is 227.33, 367.88 and 338.67 above them.
  • ⚑ Retracement of the August 3–12 advance improves from 72.9% to 57.4% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; the close is 275 above the launch) — the best reading since August 17 (derivation).
  • ⚑ The 20-session close percentile rises 32.4% → 46.8% (range 23,595–24,290); the 60-session rises 68.2% → 74.1% (range 22,445–24,435, June 4’s 24,460 having left the window). Both improve for a second session (derivation).
  • ⚑ ON THE WEEK (exchange weekly file): AL2610 week open 23,800, high 24,075, low 23,695, close 23,920, +210 (+0.89%) — ending two consecutive losing weeks. Weekly open-interest change −19,529; weekly volume 885,239.

⚑ The August 28 night session: it traded Warsh live

  • ⚑ AL2610 night session (21:00 August 28 to 01:00 August 29, CLOSED): open 23,935, high 23,990, low 23,845, last 23,925, VWAP 23,919.97; volume 79,417; open interest 246,395, down 1,514 on the August 28 day close of 247,909.
  • ⚑ The last print of 23,925 is still 35.75 above MA20, so every one of the six averages remained behind the print at the close of the night (derivation).
  • ⊘ But it cost something: the high of 23,990 came BEFORE 22:00 Beijing and the low of 23,845 came after, and 23,845 is 44.25 BELOW MA20. The night neither held its own high nor added length (interpretation).
  • AL2611 night: open 23,950, high 23,975, low 23,845, last 23,915; open interest 135,062 (+2,535).

⚑ Alumina AO2610: the series low lasted exactly one session

  • AO2610: open 2,614, high 2,651, low 2,605, close 2,648, settlement 2,629, prior settlement 2,624. Close-to-close +34 (+1.30%); settlement versus prior settlement +5 (+0.19%). Volume 226,603 (from 209,710, +8.1%); open interest 228,594 (from 280,950, −52,356).
  • ⚑ A decline of 52,356 lots is the largest single-session open-interest fall this brief has recorded on any of its four series. The two preceding down-sessions built +14,282 and +16,681. Price up on collapsing open interest is short-covering — the first of the two cases the prior watchlist named.
  • ⚑ August 27’s close of 2,614 — the lowest of 159 retrieved sessions — was not revisited on a closing basis, and August 28’s low of 2,605 merely matched the August 27 night low without extending it.
  • ⚑ The 20-session close percentile rises 0.0% → 30.1% (range 2,614–2,727); the 60-session rises 0.0% → 10.5% (range 2,614–2,939) (derivation).
  • ⊘ But it is still below all six of its own averages for a FOURTH session: MA5 2,653.20 (−5.20), MA10 2,667.30 (−19.30), MA20 2,676.45 (−28.45), MA30 2,687.90 (−39.90), MA40 2,695.95 (−47.95), MA60 2,750.60 (−102.60). MA5 is now only 5.20 away.
  • ⚑ The night session extended the bounce: open 2,656, high 2,700, low 2,649, last 2,688, VWAP 2,685.21, volume 174,123; open interest 229,401 (+807). ⚑ 2,688 is 0.10 above MA30 at 2,687.90, so the night print cleared four of the six averages (derivation).
  • AO2609 closed 2,640; AO2611 2,664; AO2612 2,679; AO2701 2,689. Complex alumina volume 386,795; complex open interest 577,141 (−23,820).
  • ⚑ ON THE WEEK: AO2610 week open 2,698, high 2,718, low 2,605, close 2,648, −50 (−1.85%); weekly open-interest change −56,316.

Cast alloy AD2610: it did not follow primary

  • AD2610: open 23,255, high 23,305, low 23,100, close 23,215, settlement 23,190, prior settlement 23,190. Close-to-close −20 (−0.09%); settlement unchanged. Volume 5,830; open interest 10,308 (−1,358).
  • ⚑ Averages: MA5 23,131.00, MA10 23,091.50, MA30 23,195.33, MA40 23,132.50 and MA60 23,094.75 all held; MA20 23,269.00 is 54.00 above. Still five of six. ⊘ Primary went to six of six and cast alloy did not, so the structural convergence the prior edition noted lasted exactly one session.
  • ⚑ The discount to primary REWIDENED after four consecutive narrowings: 770 → 675 → 630 → 585 → 705. ⚑ But the night reversed it again — AD’s night last of 23,340 against AL’s 23,925 returns it to 585 (derivation).
  • AD2609 closed 23,200; AD2611 23,270 (open interest 9,394, +1,210); AD2612 23,265. Complex volume 10,904; complex open interest 20,842.

⚑ LME: one of six back to three, while the contango repaid its whole collapse in a session

  • ⚑ LME cash settlement $3,222.00 (+$9.50, +0.30%); three-month $3,241.00 (+$25.00, +0.78%). Official quotes: cash bid $3,221.50 / ask $3,222.00; 3M bid $3,240.00 / ask $3,241.00.
  • ⚑ Averages: MA5 $3,213.10 (reclaimed by $8.90), MA10 $3,215.70 (reclaimed by $6.30), MA40 $3,209.09 (reclaimed by $12.91); MA20 $3,249.62 ($27.62 above), MA30 $3,229.72 ($7.72 above), MA60 $3,245.79 ($23.79 above). ⚑ THREE of six, up from ONE — the precise sentence the prior watchlist wrote.
  • ⚑ The contango re-widened from $3.50 to $19.00. The sequence reads $19.50 → $18.50 → $11.50 → $3.50 → $19.00, so three sessions of narrowing were repaid in one (derivation). ⊘ The prior edition explicitly flagged that a flip to backwardation would become “the hardest bullish argument on the London side.” That did not happen and the move went the other way; this brief records that its own flagged bullish case did not materialise (interpretation).
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,725 mt (−100) — the first change in four prints and a new low of the run. Across the ten prints since August 17 stocks have moved twice, by 100 tonnes each time. LME aluminium ALLOY stocks 1,500 mt, unchanged.
  • ⊘ Three London calibers, three numbers: Westmetall cash $3,222.00 and 3M $3,241.00; cnal’s electronic 3M close $3,242 (+$18 against its own prior close of $3,224); TradingEconomics $3,242.15 (+0.18%). None reconciled.
  • ⚑ SHFE-LME ratio expands 7.4148 → 7.4239 (Shanghai +0.42% against London +0.30%). Sequence 7.4514 → 7.3617 → 7.4148 → 7.4239 (derivation).
  • ⚑ ON THE WEEK: LME cash $3,222.00 against August 21’s $3,227.00, −$5.00 (−0.15%), against Shanghai’s +0.89%. The two exchanges diverged on the week (derivation).

⊘ August 28 spot: not one of nine calibers rose, and the basis collapsed from +100 to −20

  • ⚑ cnal calibers, August 28: Changjiang 23,920 (0, range 23,900–23,940); Shanghai spot (SME) 23,900 (−20, range 23,880–23,920); Zhongyuan 23,920 (0); Nanhai (Foshan A00 delivered) 24,390 (−40, range 24,340–24,440); Guangdong Nanchu (South China Al99.7) 24,110 (−50, range 24,080–24,140); Nanchu East China 23,900 (−20). ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is absent for the fourth time in five sessions.
  • ⚑ Chalco, August 28 — all four regions retrieved for a third consecutive edition: East 23,900 (−20), South 24,110 (−40), Southwest 23,940 (−30), Central 23,790 (−40). ⚑ The producer cut every regional quotation on a day the board rose 100.
  • ⚑ Derivation: against the board’s +100, Changjiang and Zhongyuan were FLAT and the other seven calibers all FELL — Shanghai spot −20, Chalco East −20, Chalco Southwest −30, Nanhai −40, Chalco South −40, Chalco Central −40, Nanchu −50. Not one rose.
  • ⚑ Derivation: the basis collapsed 120 points in a single session. Shanghai spot at 23,900 is 20 BELOW the board’s 23,920, against +100 on both August 26 and August 27. Spot has moved to a DISCOUNT for the first time in this sequence. Chalco East is also −20.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Nanhai−Shanghai 490 (from 510); Nanchu−Shanghai 210 (from 240); Chalco South−East 210 (from 230). ⚑ All three South China spreads narrowed together for a SECOND consecutive session.
  • ⚑ Derivation: Changjiang−Shanghai +20 (from 0); Chalco Southwest−East +40 (from +50); Chalco Central−East −110 (from −90), Central China still the lowest of the nine.
  • ⚑ SMM caliber (relayed via a broker morning note, August 27): SMM A00 average 23,920 yuan/mt, +50 day-on-day; SMM A00 premium/discount −10, unchanged. ⚑ This is the first retrieval of SMM’s absolute quotation after FIVE consecutive editions without it; it is relayed, not read from source.
  • ⚑ SMM caliber (August 27): Japan MJP spot premium $270/mt, −$10 day-on-day; import loss −2,890.49 yuan/mt, +43 on the prior session (relayed).
  • Alumina spot: the SMM composite fell to 2,676 yuan/mt (August 27, from the 2,681.62 previously carried). ⚑ Chalco’s alumina listings (August 28, NEW caliber this edition): Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660 — all five above AO2610’s 2,648 by 12 to 137. Ex-China $363–364/mt FOB East Australia (restated).
  • ADC12 23,900 yuan/mt (SMM, August 20 weekly caliber, restated); overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190/mt (restated); Foshan A00 on SMM’s own caliber 24,150 and Wuxi A00 at a −160 discount (August 27, relayed).

Interpretation: the board won and the metal did not follow

  • ⚑ The spot-beats-board streak now reads one session → one → four → one → ZERO. This edition is the first in the run to produce “board up, and not one of nine calibers up” (interpretation).
  • ⚑ On August 26 and 27 the premium held at exactly +100 through a rising board, and this brief argued that mattered more than whether spot beat the board. That argument was tested here: the premium was not eroded gradually, it was surrendered in one step and taken through zero. Which suggests those two sessions of “not eroded” were holders declining to follow the board up, not spot support (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The prior edition set its own downgrade condition: “two consecutive sessions of joint narrowing would downgrade South China tightness is structural from holding-in-level to actively fading.” The condition is met, and the downgrade is made. This brief does not claim the regional premium has gone — 490 is still far above the 350 the sequence began at — it claims the DIRECTION has reversed, and that two consecutive narrowings after eight sessions of widening is a trend change rather than a datum (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⚑ Three previously-missing reports arrived on the same day — and the draw slowed

  • ⚑ SMM’s Thursday August 27 domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory: 852,000 mt, −23,000 week-on-week, a SEVENTH consecutive draw. Retrieved this edition after two consecutive editions of absence (relayed).
  • ⚑ Series: 1,006,000 (Jul 23) → 979,000 → 953,000 → 958,000 (Aug 3) → 933,000 → 917,000 → 898,000 → 886,000 → 875,000 (Aug 20) → 860,000 (Aug 24) → 852,000 (Aug 27); −154,000 mt since July 23.
  • ⊘ CALIBER CONFLICT: a second broker note puts the same date’s ingot social inventory at 821,000 mt, −14,000 week-on-week. It is not SMM’s social series. Both are listed, neither is reconciled, and this brief does not average them.
  • ⚑ Bonded inventory (NEW caliber this edition): Shanghai plus Guangdong bonded aluminium 116,000 mt at August 27, −1,000 week-on-week (relayed).
  • ⚑ SHFE weekly warehouse report for August 24–28 (retrieved this edition — the prior watchlist asked for it): aluminium 391,498 mt, −12,299 week-on-week, of which registered warrants 245,510, −28,691 week-on-week. ⚑ Derivation: the draw SLOWED, against the prior week’s −18,300.
  • ⚑ SHFE daily warrant report, August 28: aluminium 245,510 mt (−5,664 on the day); alumina 242,678 mt (−6,032).
  • ⚑ SHFE weekly alumina warehouse: 323,736 mt, −38,827 week-on-week.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,725 mt (−100), the first change in four prints and a new low of the run.
  • ⊘ Billet direction is in caliber conflict: one morning note has billet social inventory slightly LOWER than Monday, another has it still ACCUMULATING on a rising molten-aluminium ratio compressing ingot casting. Both listed, not reconciled. Prior billet level 143,000 mt (restated).
  • Cast alloy ingot social inventory 28,100 mt (+2,500 w/w, a second week of build) (restated). ⊘ SHFE cast-alloy registered warrants for August 28 not retrieved.
  • ⊘ The several inventory calibers have different windows and coverage; this brief does not sum them and does not reconcile them.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ There are two net facts here and they point in opposite directions. First, a seventh consecutive draw is confirmed and bonded stocks fell too — that is support. Second, the SHFE weekly draw slowed from 18,300 to 12,299 tonnes, and warrants fell 28,691 on the week against 5,664 on Friday alone, so the cancellations were concentrated early in the week. Destocking continues, but at the margin it is decelerating (interpretation).
  • ⚑ On the London side, stocks moved for the first time in four prints and made a new low of the run in the same session the contango re-widened sharply. Falling stock alongside an easing nearby curve are both true here; this brief does not collapse them into a single conclusion (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ Warsh: delivered inside the night session, and September repriced roughly twenty-one points in an afternoon

  • ⚑ Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote on the morning of August 28 US Eastern time — 22:00 Beijing, inside the SHFE night session.
  • ⚑ Content (secondary): he said he was “impressed” with the economy’s overall strength but was concerned that underlying inflation trends had not improved, stating that this summer’s better-than-expected readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved”; he acknowledged financial conditions do not appear restrictive; he said the Fed has more work to do; and he declined to offer either forward guidance or a reaction function, adding that “we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.”
  • ⚑ CME FedWatch, September 16 meeting: hike odds jumped to approximately 55.7% on one caliber and approximately 59% on another, against 34.4% on August 27. ⊘ Both calibers are listed; this brief reconciles neither and does not take a midpoint. ⊘ A separate report put the pre-speech HOLD probability at “nearly 70%,” which is inconsistent with the 65.6% this brief carried; listed, not reconciled.
  • ⊘ The October 28 and December 9 distributions for August 28 were NOT retrievable. The prior values (October: hold 47.5%, implied at-least-one-hike 52.5%; December: implied at-least-one-hike 72.7%) are carried at August 27 and must NOT be read as post-speech levels. ⚑ This gap matters more than usual: this brief established on August 27 that the dollar tracks the YEAR-END caliber rather than September, so the September number alone cannot say how much of the dollar’s move is durable (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Dollar index 99.677 on the August 28 close, +0.518 (+0.52%); monthly −1.20% (from −1.75%), yearly +1.95% (from +1.38%). ⊘ A second caliber had 99.21 (+0.30%) shortly after the speech and the close ran higher still. Both listed, not reconciled.
  • ⚑ The rest of the complex confirmed the hawkish read: the US 2-year yield rose to 4.31%; gold fell 0.94% to $4,559.79/oz; precious-metals miners were among the worst-performing corners of the US market within twenty-five minutes of the speech (secondary).
  • ⚑ But LME aluminium closed HIGHER after the speech, and this is the edition’s cleanest non-confirmation. The LME cash settlement is struck before 15:00 London and is a PRE-speech print, while the electronic three-month close of $3,242 is POST-speech and was up $18. Aluminium did not trade the repricing the way gold did (derivation and interpretation).

Energy, trade and China macro

  • ⚑ Brent $88.29 on August 28, −$0.23 (−0.26%); weekly −5%; monthly +0.23%; yearly +30.84%.
  • ⚑ The driver remains the continued drain of the Hormuz risk premium: Gulf crude exports have recovered to roughly 15–16 million barrels per day against a March low of 5–6 million and a pre-conflict 22–24 million, with Iran and Oman having agreed a corridor and revenue-sharing arrangement (secondary).
  • ⚑ Canada’s 50% aluminium counter-tariff takes effect September 8 — 10 days away; the retaliation covers about $20bn of US goods (restated). ⚑ A morning note also flags US–Canada trade talks hitting obstacles and the US Treasury planning larger long-bond buybacks (relayed).
  • ⚑ China’s official August manufacturing PMI publishes on Monday August 31 — the next trading day. July printed 49.2 against a 50.1 consensus: a contraction reading and a miss.

Interpretation: macro is clearly bearish this edition, but the transmission is uneven

  • ⚑ The central fact in this column is the SIZE of the single-day September repricing rather than its absolute level. Roughly twenty-one percentage points moved in one afternoon, and it moved inside the SHFE night session — whose high came before the speech and whose low came after it (interpretation).
  • ⚑ But the transmission is uneven: gold and the precious-metals miners reacted textbook-fashion while LME aluminium’s electronic close finished higher. Which suggests this repricing reaches aluminium indirectly, through the dollar and general risk appetite, rather than directly through the rate-to-demand channel (interpretation).
  • ⚑ And the missing October and December calibers leave this brief unable to complete its own year-end test this edition. That is a named gap and it is the first thing to close on Monday (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

Overseas supply

  • ⚑ UAE, EGA Al Taweelah, Abu Dhabi (NEW this edition): 315 of 1,262 reduction cells have been restarted — 25%, up from the 18% previously carried; announced August 26. Full production is targeted for Q1 2027; the restoration involves roughly $400 million and about 1,000 workers. Potline 1 was energised May 26, potline 3 on July 13 and potline 2 on August 3; each restarted cell takes roughly a week to stabilise (secondary).
  • ⚑ Japan’s MJP spot premium fell $10 to $270/mt — overseas regional premia easing and supply tightness relieving at the margin (relayed, NEW this edition).
  • Brazil’s Alunorte (6.3 mt/yr): back at full capacity and no longer to be counted as a live deduction from alumina supply (restated).
  • Australia’s Tomago: A$2.5bn government support package (restated).
  • Rusal: Ukraine’s sanctions on five enterprises including Bratsk, Sayanogorsk and Krasnoyarsk (secondary, restated).
  • Indonesian new alumina capacity continues to release; Middle East transport difficulties are generating premium demand for bagged alumina — alumina is strong offshore and weak onshore (relayed).

Domestic supply and alumina

  • ⚑ SMM caliber: July 2026 Chinese primary aluminium output 3.874 million mt, +1.60% year-on-year and +3.47% month-on-month; national operating capacity 45.614 million mt/yr at end-July, +64,000 t month-on-month; the July molten-aluminium ratio rose 1.07 percentage points to 78.28%, with a slight decline expected in August (relayed).
  • ⚑ Alumina: capacity overflow remains serious and inventory pressure keeps accumulating; domestic maintenance capacity is resuming and ramping; Guinea’s policy has been repeatedly postponed so the market’s sense of urgency has faded, and with bauxite supply stable the cost support has loosened at the margin (relayed).
  • ⚑ Derivation: AO2610’s 2,648 close sits 70 and 178.21 below the two cost calibers this brief carries (from 104 and 212.21) — narrowed but not closed. The alumina/aluminium ratio is 11.07%, from 10.97%.
  • ⚑ And Chalco’s own alumina listings (2,660–2,785) sit ABOVE the board’s 2,648 in all five regions, a 12-to-137 gap between the producer’s asking level and the futures (NEW caliber this edition).
  • National alumina inventory 7.028 million mt (July 30 caliber, restated).

Downstream demand

  • ⚑ SMM weekly operating rates, week to August 27 (relayed): aluminium extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp week-on-week); sheet and strip 69.2% (unchanged); foil 70.7% (+0.3pp); wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). ⚑ Two up, one flat, one down — which does not amount to evidence that the peak season has started (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Billet conversion fees: Henan and Linyi flat, other regions cut 20–110 yuan/mt; rod 1A60 flat, 6/8 series flat, low-carbon 6/8 up 42 yuan (relayed).
  • ⚑ Exports: growth has peaked, and the repair in the SHFE-LME ratio keeps narrowing export margins (relayed).
  • PV: Chinese module output roughly 38.5 GW in July and 39.3 GW in August; PV aluminium frame operating rates stable (restated).
  • ⚑ Demand overall remains subdued: downstream buying is need-based restocking, continued arrivals in East China are pressuring the discount, holders are controlling volume and releasing slowly, and no peak-season inflection has appeared (relayed).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Three net changes this edition. First, overseas supply deductions keep converting into additions (EGA from 18% to 25%; Japan’s MJP premium down $10). Second, the cost side bounced but reclaimed none of its own averages, and the producer’s own listings still sit above the board. Third, downstream operating rates are mixed and do not support a peak-season-has-started statement (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Taken together, the fundamentals give this averages reclaim limited support: the reclaim happened on the board, not in the metal (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Regional transactions

  • ⚑ East China: Shanghai spot (SME) 23,900 (−20, range 23,880–23,920) with SME’s own premium/discount at −10 (unchanged); Nanchu East China 23,900 (−20) with premium/discount −10 (unchanged); Chalco East listing 23,900 (−20); Changjiang 23,920 (0). ⚑ Derivation: East China spot is at a 20 DISCOUNT to AL2610, against a 100 PREMIUM the session before.
  • ⚑ South China: Nanhai (Foshan A00 delivered) 24,390 (−40); Guangdong Nanchu 24,110 (−50, with its premium at +200, −30); Chalco South listing 24,110 (−40). ⚑ All three South China calibers fell — a second consecutive session of all of them lagging the board.
  • ⚑ Central China: Zhongyuan 23,920 (0); Chalco Central listing 23,790 (−40), still the lowest of the nine, with its discount to East China widening from −90 to −110.
  • ⚑ Southwest: Chalco Southwest listing 23,940 (−30), its premium to East China narrowing from +50 to +40.
  • Nanhai electrical round rod (9.5mm) 24,950 (0).
  • ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is absent again and is not rolled forward.

⊘ Sentiment indicators

  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices have been unretrievable for a SIXTH consecutive edition (behind a login wall). This brief does not estimate or substitute them.
  • ⚑ The available substitute is the basis itself: on a session in which the board rose 100, spot moved from a 100 premium to a 20 discount. That combination says more than any sentiment index — holders did not raise offers into a rising board, and the entire adjustment was absorbed by the basis (interpretation).
  • Downstream buying is need-based restocking, East China arrivals continue, holders are controlling volume, and the market remains on the sidelines overall (relayed).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ This edition’s spot column reduces to one sentence: the absolute price fell and the relative structure weakened with it. That is the exact opposite of August 27’s “absolute gains lagged, relative structure intact” — and only one session separates the two (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The “nationally loose, regionally tight” framework is weakened from both sides simultaneously for the first time: on the aggregate side the basis flipped to a discount, and on the regional side all three South China spreads narrowed for a second consecutive session. This brief therefore lowers its confidence in that framework rather than abandoning it (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (29)

  • ⚑ AL2610 closed 23,920 (+100, +0.42%), above all six averages for the first time since August 12.
  • ⚑ MA20 itself rose 15.00 to 23,889.25 and the close cleared it anyway, by 30.75.
  • ⚑ The four-session clear-then-fail sequence ended.
  • ⚑ Settlement 23,930 is 40.75 above MA20, agreeing with the close for a second session.
  • ⚑ Open interest rose for the first time in three sessions (+248); complex OI +3,337.
  • ⚑ The give-back narrowed again to 105 (100 → 185 → 315 → 130 → 105).
  • ⚑ Retracement of the August 3–12 advance improved from 72.9% to 57.4%, the best since August 17.
  • ⚑ 20-session percentile 32.4% → 46.8%; 60-session 68.2% → 74.1%.
  • ⚑ On the week AL2610 gained 210 (+0.89%), ending two consecutive losing weeks.
  • ⚑ The night session’s last print of 23,925 remained above all six averages.
  • ⚑ Alumina AO2610 closed 2,648 (+34, +1.30%); the series low lasted one session.
  • ⚑ Alumina open interest fell 52,356 — short-covering, the largest single-session fall on this brief’s record.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s 20- and 60-session percentiles rose off 0.0% to 30.1% and 10.5%.
  • ⚑ The alumina night print of 2,688 cleared four of the six averages.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s gap to the two cost calibers narrowed from 104/212.21 to 70/178.21.
  • ⚑ Chalco’s five regional alumina listings (2,660–2,785) all sit above the board’s 2,648.
  • ⚑ LME cash $3,222.00 (+0.30%), taking the average count from one of six back to three.
  • ⚑ LME three-month +0.78%, a larger gain than cash.
  • ⚑ The LME electronic 3M closed HIGHER after Warsh, at $3,242 (+$18).
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,725 mt (−100), a new low of the run.
  • ⚑ SMM social inventory 852,000 mt, a seventh consecutive draw (−23,000 w/w).
  • ⚑ Bonded inventory 116,000 mt, −1,000 w/w.
  • ⚑ SHFE aluminium stocks 391,498 mt, −12,299 w/w; registered warrants −28,691 w/w.
  • ⚑ SHFE alumina stocks −38,827 w/w.
  • ⚑ Cast alloy’s night print of 23,340 narrowed the discount to primary back to 585 from 705.
  • ⚑ SMM A00 spot at 23,920 on August 27, +50 day-on-day (retrieval restored this edition).
  • ⚑ Foil operating rate 70.7% (+0.3pp) and wire & cable 63.0% (+0.6pp) both improved.
  • ⚑ Low-carbon 6/8 series rod conversion fees rose 42 yuan.
  • ⚑ Brent is −5% on the week but still +30.84% on the year, so the absolute energy-cost floor under smelting has not been removed.

Bearish factors (28)

  • ⚑ Not one of nine spot calibers rose: two flat, seven fell, against a board up 100.
  • ⚑ The basis collapsed 120 points in a session, from a 100 premium to a 20 discount — the first discount of this sequence.
  • ⚑ Chalco cut all four regional listings on a rising board.
  • ⚑ All three South China spreads narrowed for a second consecutive session, triggering this brief’s own downgrade condition.
  • ⚑ Chalco Central’s discount to East China widened from −90 to −110.
  • ⚑ SHFE volume fell for a third consecutive session (−18.7%); the reclaim came on lighter turnover.
  • ⚑ Open interest rose only 248 lots against a 247,909-lot position — negligible.
  • ⚑ The night session fell from 23,990 to 23,845 and shed 1,514 lots.
  • ⚑ Alumina remains below all six of its own averages for a fourth consecutive session.
  • ⚑ Alumina remains below both cost calibers, so “cost support” is still not an available downside argument.
  • ⚑ Alumina fell 50 (−1.85%) on the week with open interest down 56,316.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s capacity overflow and inventory build are unchanged, and Guinea’s delays have loosened cost support at the margin.
  • ⚑ The LME contango re-widened from $3.50 to $19.00 in one session, overturning the nearby-tightening argument.
  • ⚑ LME is still below three averages (MA20, MA30, MA60).
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio widened to 7.4239, keeping Shanghai expensive against London and narrowing export margins.
  • ⚑ The SHFE weekly draw slowed from 18,300 to 12,299 tonnes.
  • ⚑ Warsh was hawkish: September hike odds jumped from 34.4% to roughly 55.7–59%.
  • ⚑ The dollar index rose 0.52% to 99.677 and its monthly loss narrowed from −1.75% to −1.20%.
  • ⚑ The US 2-year yield reached 4.31% and gold fell 0.94% — risk assets confirmed the hawkish read.
  • ⊘ October and December calibers were not retrievable, so this brief cannot confirm whether year-end suppression deepened.
  • ⚑ EGA’s Al Taweelah restart rose from 18% to 25% of cells (315 of 1,262).
  • ⚑ Japan’s MJP spot premium fell $10 to $270/mt — overseas tightness easing.
  • ⚑ Indonesian new alumina capacity keeps releasing.
  • ⚑ July domestic primary output was +1.60% y/y and +3.47% m/m, with operating capacity up 64,000 t.
  • ⚑ Extrusion operating rate 50.6% (−0.2pp) — construction-linked demand still weak.
  • ⚑ Billet conversion fees were cut 20–110 yuan in most regions, weakening substitution demand.
  • ⚑ Canada’s 50% aluminium counter-tariff takes effect September 8, 10 days away.
  • ⚑ China’s August manufacturing PMI publishes Monday; July’s 49.2 was in contraction and below consensus.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

On August 28 the board completed its reclaim and the metal did not follow: the test the prior edition named with an explicit number attached was passed — AL2610 closed 23,920 (+100, +0.42%), 30.75 above an MA20 that had itself RISEN to 23,889.25, putting all six averages behind a day-session close for the first time since August 12 and ending four consecutive clear-then-fails, with the settlement agreeing and open interest rising for the first time in three sessions (+248); but volume fell 18.7% for a third straight session and 248 lots is negligible against a 247,909-lot position, so the technicals have won the argument twice while the money has paid for it once, lightly. Meanwhile the physical did the exact opposite: against a board up 100 not one of NINE calibers rose (two flat, seven down), Chalco cut all four regions, and the basis collapsed 120 points from a 100 premium to a 20 discount — the first discount of this sequence — while all three South China spreads narrowed for a second consecutive session, which is precisely the condition the prior edition set for itself, so this brief downgrades “South China tightness is structural” from holding-in-level to actively fading. Alumina’s series low lasted exactly one session, AO2610 closing 2,648 (+34, +1.30%) with open interest down 52,356 — the largest single-session fall on this brief’s record — taking both percentiles off 0.0% to 30.1% and 10.5% and the night print to 2,688, above four of six averages, though it remains below all six on a day close for a fourth session and 70 and 178.21 below the two cost calibers; London went from one of six averages to three exactly as the prior watchlist said, but the contango repaid its entire three-step collapse in a single session, $3.50 back to $19.00, overturning the nearby-tightening case this brief had flagged as London’s hardest bullish argument, while stocks moved for the first time in four prints to a new run low of 246,725 mt. On macro, Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote landed inside the night session — the summer’s inflation prints “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved” and the Fed has “more work to do” — and September repriced from 34.4% to roughly 55.7–59% (two calibers, unreconciled), the dollar rose 0.52% to 99.677, the 2-year reached 4.31% and gold fell 0.94%; yet the LME electronic 3M closed $18 higher after the speech, which is the edition’s cleanest non-confirmation. On inventory, SMM’s social series destocked a seventh consecutive week to 852,000 mt while the SHFE weekly draw slowed from 18,300 to 12,299 tonnes. On the week, Shanghai gained 210 (+0.89%) to end two losing weeks, alumina lost 50 and LME cash lost $5.00. This brief makes no investment recommendation; the above separates confirmed data from its interpretation throughout.

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s (August 31) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether the six-average reclaim survives Monday’s CLOSE, with MA20 the specific line (23,889.25 on Friday, and it will move as the window rolls). August 28 produced the first close above all six averages in eleven sessions, and the night’s last print of 23,925 stayed above them. A close above MA20 again turns a single-session event into a two-session confirmation, and its structural meaning exceeds any point total; a close back beneath makes this the same failure pattern as the August 27 MA10 reclaim, repeated one level higher and — crucially — repeated AFTER the night session had already traded the hawkish shock, which makes it a heavier signal than the earlier failures (interpretation). Note that MA10 (23,799.00) and MA5 (23,804.00) have flipped from resistance to support.
  • ⚑ Whether the basis repairs, and whether spot keeps moving opposite the board. On August 28 not one of nine calibers rose and the basis collapsed from +100 to −20. If spot catches up on Monday and the basis returns above zero, the collapse was a one-day technical dislocation from a board that ran too fast; if the basis stays negative on a falling board, or goes deeper negative on a rising one, the physical market is refusing the price — and that would be the most substantive counter-evidence this rebound has faced (interpretation). Watch the three South China spreads alongside it (Nanhai−Shanghai 490, Nanchu−Shanghai 210, Chalco South−East 210): a THIRD consecutive joint narrowing would require this edition’s “actively fading” downgrade to be downgraded again, to “faded.”
  • ⚑ Whether alumina can reclaim MA5 (2,653.20, only 5.20 away), and which way open interest goes with the bounce. AO2610 has rebounded 34 off a series low with open interest down 52,356 in one session. If the price extends while open interest keeps falling, it is still short-covering and the durability should be discounted; if the price extends and open interest turns UP, fresh length is arriving and the one-way decline in the cost side may be over; if the price falls back toward 2,614, the bounce is defined as a one-off cover rather than a base (interpretation). The 12-to-137 gap between Chalco’s listings (2,660–2,785) and the board is worth tracking as a second read on the same question.
  • ⚑ Whether the LME contango and stocks keep diverging. The contango repaid its whole collapse in one session, $3.50 to $19.00, while stocks made a new run low at 246,725 mt. If the contango keeps widening while stocks keep falling, the London stock decline is a cancellation-and-load-out artefact rather than genuine nearby scarcity; if the contango narrows again with stocks still falling, the nearby-tightness case is rebuilt — and since this edition records that case as having been overturned, rebuilding it now requires new evidence rather than a return to the prior reading (interpretation). Watch also whether cash holds the newly reclaimed MA5 ($3,213.10) and MA10 ($3,215.70), and whether it can attack MA30 ($3,229.72).
  • ⚑ The October and December FedWatch calibers — the gap this edition named, and the first thing to close on Monday. This brief established on August 27 that the dollar tracks December rather than September. If December’s implied hike probability rises materially from August 27’s 72.7% and the dollar holds above 99.677, macro suppression has escalated from “brought forward in time” to “deepened in magnitude,” which matters far more for aluminium than the September number itself; if December is broadly unchanged while the dollar slips back below 99, Friday’s jump was mostly a September repricing and the total quantum of suppression is unchanged (interpretation).
  • ⚑ China’s official August manufacturing PMI, published Monday (July: 49.2). It is the only scheduled domestic macro release of the next trading day, and it lands on the same day the market first trades the post-speech rate curve in a day session. A reading back above 50 would give the peak-season narrative its first macro-side evidence and would pair with a seventh consecutive inventory draw; a second consecutive contraction reading removes the last forward-looking support from a spot structure that has already weakened this edition (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Inventory on two lines: the pace of the next SMM social print, and whether SHFE warrants keep cancelling. The SHFE weekly draw has already slowed from 18,300 to 12,299 tonnes, with warrants down 28,691 on the week but only 5,664 on Friday. If the next social print draws by less again, seven weeks of destocking are entering their tail — and that destocking is the single most stable bullish argument in the whole set; if the draw re-accelerates with weekly outflows rising alongside, the destocking changes character from arrival-led to consumption-led and its price support strengthens materially (interpretation). ⊘ Note also that the two inventory calibers (852,000 mt and 821,000 mt) were NOT reconciled this edition, and which one the market follows remains to be seen.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变者;标注「二手转引」者为经第三方(机构晨报或新闻报道)转述而非自原始来源直读者;标注「此为推算」者为本简报依据已列示数据自行计算所得,并非原始来源发布之数值。本期沪铝与氧化铝的全部移动平均线,均由上海期货交易所公布的 1月5日至 8月28日共 159 个交易日收盘序列精确计算,铸造铝合金为 99 个交易日;伦铝现货移动平均线由 1月2日至 8月28日共 167 个交易日的现货结算序列精确计算。作为核对说明:本期方法所算出的 8月27日各条均线,在四条价格序列与六个窗口上与上期完全一致,共二十四条,MA60 亦在内;上期缺失的五个交易所日文件已于本期补齐。8月28日夜盘为已完成时段,但其数值取自实时行情口径,交易所自身的结算记录将于 8月31日交易日结束后公布。SMM 8月27日社会库存、SMM A00 报价与升贴水、日本 MJP 升水、进口盈亏、7 月产量与产能、周度开工率,均为经机构晨报二手转引,而非自 SMM 直读。8月27日社会库存存在 85.2 万吨与 82.1 万吨两套口径,并列列示、不作调和、不取平均;铝棒库存方向亦存在两套相反表述,同样并列。CME FedWatch 9 月概率存在约 55.7% 与约 59% 两套口径,并列列示、不作调和;10 月与 12 月口径未取得,上期数值按 8月27日载入,不应被读作演讲后的水平。美元指数存在收盘 99.677 与演讲后不久 99.21 两套口径,并列列示。伦铝存在 Westmetall 现货/三个月、世铝网电子盘收盘与 TradingEconomics 三套口径,不作调和;其中现货结算属沃什演讲前印记,而电子盘收盘属演讲后印记,该时点差异已在正文中明确标注。沃什演讲内容、EGA 复产进度、海湾原油出口量与美股盘中反应均为二手来源。中铝氧化铝挂牌与 SMM 氧化铝现货为不同口径,不构成同期基差。本期对上期结论的下调(「华南紧张为结构性」由「水平上成立」下调为「正在消退」),以上期自身设定的条件与本期已列示的现货数据为据;本期亦记录上期所标示的「伦端 contango 若转为 backwardation 则构成最硬多头论据」这一情形未能兑现,且方向相反。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only figures, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” are unchanged because no new data has arrived since the prior edition; items marked “relayed” reached this brief through a third party (a broker morning note or a news report) rather than by direct reading of the original source; items marked “(derivation)” are calculated by this brief from the data listed and were not published as such by the original source. Every SHFE aluminium and alumina moving average is computed exactly from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s published close series for the 159 trading days from January 5 to August 28, and cast alloy from 99 sessions; LME cash moving averages are computed exactly from the 167-session cash settlement series from January 2 to August 28. Stated as a check: this edition’s method reproduces the prior edition’s August 27 averages on all four price series and all six horizons — twenty-four averages in total, MA60 included — and five exchange daily files missing from the prior retrieval were recovered this edition. The August 28 night session is a completed session, but its figures come from a real-time market feed; the exchange’s own settled record publishes after the August 31 trading day closes. SMM’s August 27 social inventory, SMM’s A00 quotation and premium, the Japan MJP premium, the import loss, July output and capacity, and the weekly operating rates are all relayed from broker morning notes rather than read from SMM directly. Two calibers exist for August 27 social inventory, 852,000 mt and 821,000 mt; both are listed, neither is reconciled, and no average is taken. Billet inventory direction is likewise carried in two contradictory forms. CME FedWatch’s September probability exists in two calibers, approximately 55.7% and approximately 59%; both are listed and neither is reconciled, and the October and December distributions were not retrievable, so the prior values are carried at August 27 and must not be read as post-speech levels. The dollar index is carried in two calibers, a close of 99.677 and an immediately post-speech 99.21; both are listed. LME aluminium is carried in three calibers — Westmetall cash and 3M, cnal’s electronic close, and TradingEconomics — which are not reconciled; note in particular that the cash settlement is a pre-Warsh print while the electronic close is a post-Warsh print, a timing distinction stated explicitly in the text. Warsh’s remarks, EGA’s restart progress, Gulf crude export volumes and the US equity intraday reaction are all secondary sources. Chalco’s alumina listings and SMM’s alumina spot assessment are different calibers and do not constitute a same-day basis. This edition’s downgrade of its own prior conclusion — “South China tightness is structural” moving from holding-in-level to actively fading — rests on the condition the prior edition set for itself and on the spot data listed here; this edition also records that the prior edition’s flagged case, that an LME contango flipping to backwardation would become the hardest bullish argument on the London side, did not materialise and in fact moved in the opposite direction.