Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: China's August processing PMI jumps 6.5 points to 48.7 but stays in contraction. Billet stocks hit a five-year high.周末版:中国 8 月铝加工 PMI 大幅回升 6.5 个点至 48.7%,但仍处收缩区间;铝棒库存创五年新高。

Sunday, August 30, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Sunday August 30 (Asia). ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED SINCE THE AUGUST 28 NIGHT SESSION CLOSED AT 01:00 SATURDAY, so every futures price, settlement, open interest and moving average in this edition is IDENTICAL to the prior edition's by construction and is RESTATED, not re-derived. Unlike the August 23 Sunday edition, there is no unobserved night session: the August 28 night was carried in full in the prior edition (open 23,935, high 23,990, low 23,845, last 23,925, VWAP 23,919.97, volume 79,417, OI 246,395, −1,514). WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION IS DEMAND-SIDE DATA, WEEKLY-CALIBER DETAIL AND WEEKEND NEWS FLOW THAT PUBLISHED AFTER THE PRIOR EDITION WENT OUT. FIRST, ⚑ CHINA'S AUGUST ALUMINIUM PROCESSING PMI, NEW: composite 48.7%, up from July's 42.2% — a 6.5-point month-on-month improvement (derivation) and the largest single-month gain this brief has recorded on the series. SMM describes an 'overall weak recovery' with 'notable divergence across segments' and expects a return to expansion in September. ⊘ THE AUGUST SUB-SECTOR BREAKDOWN WAS NOT RETRIEVABLE. July's seven sub-sectors — aluminium plate/sheet/strip 44.8%, aluminium foil 39.0%, construction extrusion 39.7%, industrial extrusion 42.1%, wire and cable 44.4%, primary alloy 43.9%, secondary alloy 37.6% — are carried ONLY as the comparison base and must NOT be read as August figures. SECOND, ⚑ ALUMINIUM BILLET, NEW DETAIL ON A CARRIED NUMBER: the 143,000 mt August 20 print this brief has carried since August 21 is the HIGHEST LEVEL FOR THE PERIOD IN FIVE YEARS, with Foshan at 66,000 mt and Wuxi at 26,500 mt and continued slight buildup at Huzhou and Nanchang; the week-on-week change was +500 mt from the prior Monday and +6,000 mt from the prior Thursday, and warehouse withdrawals for August 10–17 were 30,300 mt (+2,800 w/w). ⚑ PROCESSING FEES ROSE ACROSS EVERY REGION AND EVERY GAUGE while SMM A00 fell approximately 520 yuan/mt on the same week: Foshan φ90 310 yuan/mt (+150) and φ120 260 (+150); Wuxi φ90 560 (+140) and φ120 500 (+200); Nanchang φ90 450 (+250) and φ120 400 (+250). ⊘ A SECOND BILLET CALIBER, retrieved via search summary rather than from a primary SMM page, puts mainstream-consumption-area billet at 134,000 mt on August 28, +1,000 mt on Monday and +9,500 mt week-on-week, attributed to higher arrivals from north China into south China warehouses; that figure is NOT arithmetically consistent with the 143,000 mt August 20 print carried here, the two are DIFFERENT CALIBERS OR DIFFERENT WINDOWS, and they are listed and NOT reconciled and NOT averaged. THIRD, ⚑ CAST ALUMINIUM ALLOY INVENTORY, NEW CONTEXT: 28,100 mt, +2,500 mt week-on-week, and SMM states this is the SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK of buildup with the expansion ACCELERATING against the prior week, on 'low downstream purchase willingness and slow market shipment pace' plus periodic spot-futures arbitrage replenishment, with further buildup expected. This upgrades a figure the prior two editions carried as a single-week datum into a two-week trend. FOURTH, ⚑ LONDON INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED: Westmetall's official table for August 28 reads cash $3,222.00, three-month $3,241.00, stocks 246,725 mt — identical to the prior edition on all three, so the $3.50-to-$19.00 contango reversal and the new run low in stocks are VERIFIED rather than relayed. The five sessions before it also confirm unchanged: Aug 27 $3,212.50 / $3,216.00 / 246,825; Aug 26 $3,227.50 / $3,239.00 / 246,825; Aug 25 $3,188.00 / $3,206.50 / 246,825; Aug 24 $3,215.50 / $3,235.00 / 246,925; Aug 21 $3,227.00 / $3,244.00 / 246,925. ⊘ TRADINGECONOMICS RESTATES AUGUST 28 A THIRD TIME at $3,245.45 (+$9.00, +0.28%), month +2.10%, year +23.87%, against the $3,242.15 (+0.18%) carried in the prior edition and a later same-source refresh of month +2.00% and year +23.74%; the series tracks the LME FORWARD rather than the cash and the restatements are listed, NOT reconciled. Its own quarter-end and twelve-month projections are $3,265.41 and $3,475.88. FIFTH, ⊘ THREE MACRO CALIBERS DISAGREE WITH THE PRIOR EDITION. The dollar index is restated at 99.64, +0.540 (+0.55%), against the 99.677, +0.518 (+0.52%) carried; Brent is given as $89.31, −$0.39 (−0.43%) on one caliber and $89.45 settled on another, against the $88.29 (−0.26%) carried — a gap of more than a dollar between calibers — with weekly losses of 5.3% for Brent and 4.3% for WTI at $83.31. ⚑ AND THE GOLD FIGURE IN THE PRIOR EDITION WAS AN INTRADAY PRINT THAT UNDERSTATED THE MOVE: gold CLOSED down 3.13% at $4,456 for its worst session of the year, with December futures settling 3.35% lower at $4,529.90 and silver down 4.24% at $66.21; the prior edition's −0.94% to $4,559.79 was measured within twenty-five minutes of the speech. August still stands as bullion's best month since 1999 at approximately +9.5%. SIXTH, ⚑ A THIRD SEPTEMBER FED CALIBER: 57.5%, up from 35.4% a day earlier, joining the 55.7% and 'nearly 60%' calibers carried; pre-speech odds of a September hold were approximately 70%. The speech fell on Warsh's 100th day as Chair. ⚑ THE TREASURY CURVE IS THE MORE USEFUL SIGNAL AND IT ONLY APPEARS ON THE WEEK: the two-year rose 11.8bp Friday and 23bp on the week to 4.348% while the ten-year finished 1bp LOWER at 4.72% and the thirty-year 6bp lower at 5.21%, flattening 2s30s from 115bp to 86bp. ⚑ THE ARITHMETIC WARSH USED: six-month annualised PCE at 4.1% running ABOVE the twelve-month at 3.7%, 54% of the consumption basket rising faster than 3% against 32% pre-pandemic, and a 4.1% jobless rate. ⊘ THE OCTOBER AND DECEMBER STRIPS FOR AUGUST 28 REMAIN NOT RETRIEVABLE for a second edition; October's 52.5%-hike-against-47.5%-hold crossover and December's 72.7% are carried at AUGUST 27 and must NOT be read as post-speech. SEVENTH, ⚑ GEOPOLITICS, NEW AND ESCALATING ON BOTH SIDES: Treasury Secretary Bessent said 'an economic D-Day is coming for Iran' and threatened third countries doing business with Tehran; a new US sanctions wave was announced; Iranian forces ATTACKED an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within hours of the announcement; at least fifteen ship-to-ship transfer operations involving millions of barrels were observed in the Gulf of Oman with tankers reportedly disabling tracking signals; Iran's top security official Mohsen Rezaei threatened to halt oil flows out of the strait entirely should neighbouring countries join the US crackdown; and Iranian leaders state a 'two-year plan' to absorb the sanctions. ⊘ TRANSIT COUNT: a figure of 114 transits between August 17 and 24, up more than 30%, is carried against a stated pre-war baseline of roughly 73 per day; the two numbers are NOT on the same time unit as published and are listed WITHOUT reconciliation. EIGHTH, ⚑ CANADA'S COUNTER-TARIFF DETAIL, NEW: effective September 8, steel and aluminium counter-tariffs rise from 25% to 50% to match US rates, covering MORE THAN 300 METALS PRODUCTS AND DERIVATIVES with flat-rolled steel and ALUMINIUM BARS specifically named, inside a package of roughly 700 US products at 15%, 25% or 50% matched good-for-good, responding to the US 50% tariff on $27.6bn of Canadian goods effective August 22. NINTH, RAW MATERIALS, NEW: Guinean bauxite FOB $38–42/mt and CIF $70–74/mt, both with the average UNCHANGED week-on-week at the mid-August caliber; Guinea's H1 2026 exports 114.8 million mt (+15% y/y) with Q2 at 53.9 million mt (+5.3% y/y), against 183 million mt for full-year 2025 and a trajectory toward roughly 200 million mt in 2026; more than 70% of shipments go to China; export-control steps were announced in June. TENTH, SUPPLY, RESTATED WITH ONE NEW CALIBER: Qatalum remains at approximately 60% of nameplate capacity — roughly 390,000 t/yr or 32,500 mt/month against 648,000 t/yr — a level set in March after QatarEnergy confirmed reduced rather than suspended gas, and this brief had not previously carried the percentage; Alba's controlled shutdown of Lines 1–3 covers 19% of capacity (~311 kt/yr); Alunorte remains at 50%. ⚑ CHINA'S SMELTER OPERATING RATE IS CITED AT 98.4% — essentially maxed out against the 45-million-tonne cap. ⚑ US ALUMINIUM SCRAP EXPORTS ROSE 21% IN H1 2026 TO 1.25 MILLION MT, with Thailand and India the largest buyers, which is an export leg on the same compliant-scrap scarcity the reverse-invoicing policy created inside China. Europe's H1 aluminium output rose 4.9% while its alumina output fell 1.8%; Europe has lost more than 1 million tonnes of smelting capacity since 2022. ELEVENTH, CORPORATE, NEW: Mingtai Aluminium's 720,000 mt aluminium-based new-materials project is reported by one source as on track for 2026 completion with an expected revenue uplift of approximately 13.9 billion yuan, and by another as a redirection of RMB 5.9 billion with total investment of RMB 1.52 billion and completion by November 2027 covering new-energy battery, low-altitude-economy, robotics, metal-packaging, automotive and trailer materials. ⊘ THE TWO ACCOUNTS CONFLICT ON COMPLETION DATE AND INVESTMENT SIZE and are listed, NOT reconciled. TWELFTH, RESTATED WITHOUT CHANGE BECAUSE NO SESSION HAS TRADED. SHFE, August 28 daily file: AL2610 open 23,850, high 24,025, low 23,840, close 23,920, settlement 23,930, previous settlement 23,835; +100 (+0.42%) close-over-close, +85 (+0.36%) on the previous settlement; volume 152,178 (−18.7%), open interest 247,909 (+248); complex open interest 597,807 (+3,337). Week: open 23,800, high 24,075, low 23,695, close 23,920, +210 (+0.89%); weekly volume 885,239; weekly open interest −19,529. AO2610 open 2,614, high 2,651, low 2,605, close 2,648, settlement 2,629; +34 (+1.30%); open interest 228,594 (−52,356). AD2610 close 23,215 (−20, −0.09%). MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, ⚑ UNCHANGED BY CONSTRUCTION: SHFE aluminium MA5 23,804.00, MA10 23,799.00, MA20 23,889.25, MA30 23,692.67, MA40 23,552.12, MA60 23,581.33 — the close of 23,920 is ABOVE ALL SIX, by 116.00, 121.00, 30.75, 227.33, 367.88 and 338.67 respectively. Twenty-session close percentile 46.8%; sixty-session 74.1%; retracement of the August 3-to-August 12 advance 57.4%. Alumina MA5 2,653.20, MA10 2,667.30, MA20 2,676.45, MA30 2,687.90, MA40 2,695.95, MA60 2,750.60 — the close of 2,648 is BELOW ALL SIX by 5.20, 19.30, 28.45, 39.90, 47.95 and 102.60; twenty-session percentile 30.1%, sixty-session 10.5%. Cast alloy MA5 23,131.00, MA10 23,091.50, MA20 23,269.00, MA30 23,195.33, MA40 23,132.50, MA60 23,094.75 — five of six held. LME MA5 $3,213.10, MA10 $3,215.70, MA20 $3,249.62, MA30 $3,229.72, MA40 $3,209.09, MA60 $3,245.79 — cash is above three and below three. SHFE-to-LME ratio 7.4239. Spot, August 28: Shanghai spot 23,900 (−20) for a basis of −20; Changjiang 23,920 (flat); Zhongyuan 23,920 (flat); Chalco East 23,900 (−20), Chalco South 24,110 (−40), Chalco Southwest 23,940 (−30), Chalco Central 23,790 (−40); Nanhai 24,390 (−40); Nanchu 24,110 (−50). Nanhai−Shanghai 490, Nanchu−Shanghai 210, Chalco South−East 210. SMM A00 23,920 (+50) at August 27 with a premium of −10. Inventory: SMM social 852,000 mt (August 27, −23,000 w/w, seventh consecutive draw); ⊘ a rival caliber at 821,000 mt (−14,000); SHFE weekly warehouse 391,498 mt (August 24–28, −12,299 w/w against −18,300 prior); SHFE warrants 245,510 mt (−28,691 w/w); bonded 116,000 mt (−1,000); billet 143,000 mt; cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500); LME 246,725 mt (−100); LME aluminium ALLOY 1,500 mt unchanged; alumina SHFE weekly warehouse 323,736 mt (−38,827). Alumina references: SMM index 2,676 (August 27); Chalco regional listings Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660; cost calibers 2,718 and 2,826.21; alumina-to-aluminium ratio 11.07%. Downstream operating rates, week to August 27: extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). Japan MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10). EGA has restarted 315 of 1,262 Al Taweelah cells, taking recovery from 18% to 25%, with full production targeted Q1 2027. THIRTEENTH, THE CALENDAR: ⚑ CHINA'S AUGUST MANUFACTURING PMI PUBLISHES MONDAY, AUGUST 31, against a consensus of approximately 49.6 and July's 49.2; US August non-farm payrolls land Friday, September 4, at a consensus of roughly 90,000, where the asymmetry is unusual because a soft print buys little dovish relief at a 4.1% jobless rate; the September FOMC is September 16; Canada's counter-tariffs take effect September 8.
Steven Yuan
⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED — AND UNLIKE LAST SUNDAY, NOTHING IS MISSING EITHER Every price, settlement, open interest and moving average is restated from August 28 unchanged by construction. The Aug 28 night session was already carried in full in the prior edition — there is no unobserved window this time
⚑ THE DEMAND COLUMN MOVED: AUGUST ALUMINIUM PROCESSING PMI 48.7% Against July's 42.2% — a 6.5-point month-on-month improvement, the largest single-month gain this brief has recorded on the series (derivation)
⊘ BUT IT IS STILL BELOW 50 AND SMM CALLS IT A 'WEAK RECOVERY' With 'notable divergence across segments'. A rise from deep contraction to shallow contraction is a change in the second derivative, not in the level (interpretation)
⚑ AND SMM EXPECTS SEPTEMBER TO RETURN TO EXPANSION The first forward-looking demand statement this brief has been able to carry since the July print. It is a forecast, not a datum
⊘ THE AUGUST SUB-SECTOR TABLE WAS NOT RETRIEVABLE July's seven readings — plate/strip 44.8, foil 39.0, construction extrusion 39.7, industrial extrusion 42.1, wire & cable 44.4, primary alloy 43.9, secondary alloy 37.6 — are the comparison BASE and are NOT August figures
⚑ THE BILLET NUMBER HAS A PROPERTY THIS BRIEF HAD NOT DISCLOSED: 143,000 mt IS A FIVE-YEAR HIGH FOR THE PERIOD Foshan 66,000 mt, Wuxi 26,500 mt, with continued slight buildup at Huzhou and Nanchang. +500 mt on the prior Monday and +6,000 mt on the prior Thursday
⚑ AND BILLET PROCESSING FEES ROSE IN EVERY REGION WHILE THE METAL FELL 520 YUAN Foshan φ90 310 (+150), φ120 260 (+150); Wuxi φ90 560 (+140), φ120 500 (+200); Nanchang φ90 450 (+250), φ120 400 (+250)
⚑ A FEE THAT RISES INTO A FALLING METAL IS A SUPPLIER DEFENDING MARGIN Not a buyer bidding for material. Read with a five-year-high inventory, it says the billet sector is absorbing the price fall rather than being pulled by demand (interpretation)
⊘ A SECOND BILLET CALIBER PUTS AUGUST 28 AT 134,000 mt, +9,500 w/w Retrieved via search summary, not a primary SMM page, and NOT arithmetically consistent with the 143,000 mt August 20 print. Listed, NOT reconciled, NOT averaged
⊘ THE CAST-ALLOY BUILD IS TWO WEEKS, NOT ONE — AND IT ACCELERATED 28,100 mt, +2,500 w/w, on 'low downstream purchase willingness and slow shipment pace' plus spot-futures arbitrage replenishment. SMM guides to further buildup
⚑ WESTMETALL INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMS EVERY LONDON NUMBER IN THE PRIOR EDITION Aug 28 cash $3,222.00, 3M $3,241.00, stocks 246,725 mt — identical on all three. The $19.00 contango reversal and the new run low are VERIFIED, not relayed
⚑ The five prior sessions confirm too, without a single revision Aug 27 $3,212.50/246,825; Aug 26 $3,227.50/246,825; Aug 25 $3,188.00/246,825; Aug 24 $3,215.50/246,925; Aug 21 $3,227.00/246,925
⊘ TradingEconomics restates August 28 a THIRD time: $3,245.45 (+0.28%) Against the $3,242.15 (+0.18%) carried, with month +2.10% and year +23.87%, and a later same-source refresh at +2.00% and +23.74%. The series tracks the FORWARD, not the cash
⚑ GOLD DID NOT FALL 0.94% — IT CLOSED DOWN 3.13% AT $4,456 Its worst session of the year. December futures settled 3.35% lower at $4,529.90; silver −4.24% at $66.21. The prior edition's figure was an intraday print inside 25 minutes
⊘ The dollar is restated at 99.64 (+0.540, +0.55%) Against the 99.677 (+0.518, +0.52%) carried. Two calibers, same direction, listed and not reconciled — but both confirm the break above 99
⊘ And Brent is restated more than a dollar higher: $89.31 / $89.45 Against the $88.29 carried. Weekly losses 5.3% for Brent and 4.3% for WTI at $83.31. Three calibers on one session, listed and NOT reconciled
⚑ A THIRD SEPTEMBER FED CALIBER: 57.5%, from 35.4% a day earlier Joining 55.7% and 'nearly 60%'. Pre-speech odds of a September HOLD were approximately 70%. The speech fell on Warsh's 100th day as Chair
⚑ BUT THE CURVE SAYS THE MARKET BELIEVES THE FED RATHER THAN FEARS IT 2-year +23bp on the week to 4.348% while the 30-year fell 6bp to 5.21% and the 10-year 1bp to 4.72%. 2s30s flattened from 115bp to 86bp
⚑ The arithmetic behind the repricing: six-month PCE 4.1% ABOVE twelve-month 3.7% With 54% of the consumption basket rising faster than 3% against 32% pre-pandemic, and a 4.1% jobless rate that removes the labour-market excuse for patience
⊘ THE OCTOBER AND DECEMBER STRIPS ARE STILL NOT RETRIEVABLE — SECOND EDITION October's 52.5%-hike-over-47.5%-hold crossover and December's 72.7% are carried at AUGUST 27 and must NOT be read as post-speech. This brief established the dollar tracks the YEAR-END caliber
⚑ BESSENT: 'AN ECONOMIC D-DAY IS COMING FOR IRAN' — AND A TANKER WAS ATTACKED HOURS LATER A new US sanctions wave was announced with third-country threats attached; Iranian forces attacked an oil tanker in the strait within hours
⚑ AT LEAST FIFTEEN SHIP-TO-SHIP TRANSFERS IN THE GULF OF OMAN Millions of barrels, with tankers reportedly disabling tracking signals. Rezaei threatened to halt flows entirely if neighbours join the crackdown; Iran claims a 'two-year plan'
⊘ The transit count is published on two incompatible units 114 transits between August 17 and 24, up more than 30%, against a stated pre-war baseline of roughly 73 PER DAY. Listed WITHOUT reconciliation — no ratio is computed from the pair
⚑ CANADA'S SEPTEMBER 8 PACKAGE IS BIGGER THAN THE HEADLINE Steel and aluminium counter-tariffs go from 25% to 50%, covering MORE THAN 300 metals products with ALUMINIUM BARS named, inside ~700 US products matched good-for-good
Guinean bauxite unchanged week-on-week: FOB $38–42, CIF $70–74 H1 exports 114.8 million mt (+15% y/y), Q2 53.9 million mt (+5.3%), against 183 mt in 2025 and a ~200 mt trajectory. Over 70% goes to China
⚑ QATALUM IS STILL AT 60% OF NAMEPLATE — A PERCENTAGE THIS BRIEF HAD NOT CARRIED ~390,000 t/yr against 648,000 t/yr, or ~32,500 mt/month, set in March when QatarEnergy confirmed reduced rather than suspended gas. Alba Lines 1–3 down, 19% (~311 kt/yr). Alunorte 50%
⚑ China's smelters are cited at a 98.4% operating rate — essentially maxed out Against the 45-million-tonne cap. There is no domestic supply response available to a higher price; the marginal tonne has to come from restarts abroad (interpretation)
⚑ US aluminium scrap EXPORTS rose 21% in H1 to 1.25 million mt Thailand and India the largest buyers. The compliant-scrap scarcity that reverse-invoicing created inside China now has an export leg pulling the other way
Europe H1: aluminium output +4.9% while alumina output −1.8% Europe has lost more than 1 million tonnes of smelting capacity since 2022 after power crossed $0.50/kWh. The regional supply gap widens on both sides at once
⊘ Mingtai's 720,000 mt project is reported two incompatible ways One source: on track for 2026 completion, ~13.9bn yuan revenue uplift. Another: RMB 5.9bn redirected, RMB 1.52bn total investment, completion November 2027. Listed, NOT reconciled
AL2610 restated at 23,920 — all six averages still behind it Above MA5 (23,804.00) by 116.00, MA10 (23,799.00) by 121.00, MA20 (23,889.25) by 30.75, MA30 by 227.33, MA40 by 367.88, MA60 by 338.67. Percentiles 46.8% and 74.1%
AO2610 restated at 2,648 — below all six, for a fourth session MA5 is 5.20 above at 2,653.20. Still 70 and 178.21 below the two cost calibers. Chalco's own five regional listings (2,660–2,785) all sit above the board
LME cash restated at $3,222.00 — three of six averages, ratio 7.4239 Above MA5, MA10 and MA40; below MA20 ($3,249.62), MA30 ($3,229.72) and MA60 ($3,245.79). Contango $19.00. Stocks 246,725 mt, the run low
Inventory restated: social 852,000 mt (7th draw), SHFE weekly 391,498 mt The SHFE draw SLOWED to −12,299 from −18,300. Warrants −28,691 on the week to 245,510. Bonded 116,000 mt (−1,000). Billet 143,000 and cast alloy 28,100 both BUILDING
⚑ CHINA'S AUGUST MANUFACTURING PMI PUBLISHES MONDAY AGAINST ~49.6 July printed 49.2 — a contraction reading and a miss against 50.0–50.1. It lands on the same session the market first trades the post-Warsh strip in daylight
⚑ AND US AUGUST PAYROLLS LAND FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, AT ROUGHLY 90K The asymmetry is unusual: at a 4.1% jobless rate a soft print no longer buys much dovish relief, while a firm one confirms the hawkish repricing outright
⚑ METHOD: eighteen SHFE averages and six LME averages reproduce the prior edition EXACTLY No session has traded. Every average is restated by construction, and Westmetall's independent table confirms the London inputs to all six of its own

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期为周末版(周日刊),写于 8月30日(周日)上午。
  • ⚑ 自 8月28日夜盘于周六 01:00 收市以来没有任何交易时段。因此本期所载全部期货价格、结算价、持仓量,以及四个品种的全部均线,均按构造与上期完全相同,系「转载」而非「重算」。
  • ⚑ 与 8月23日周日刊不同的是:本期没有观测盲区。 8月28日夜盘已在上期完整载入(开 23,935,高 23,990,低 23,845,末价 23,925,均价 23,919.97,成交 79,417 手,持仓 246,395 手、−1,514)。周一开盘不会包含本简报未曾看到的时段。
  • ⚑ 本期的增量在需求栏——这是本简报自 8 月以来最弱的一栏,而它动了。

⚑ 沪铝:数据转载,均线按构造不变

  • AL2610(主力):开 23,850,高 24,025,低 23,840,收 23,920,结算 23,930,前结算 23,835;收盘对收盘 +100(+0.42%),较前结算 +85(+0.36%);成交 152,178 手(−18.7%),持仓 247,909 手(+248);品种合计持仓 597,807 手(+3,337)。
  • 周度:开 23,800,高 24,075,低 23,695,收 23,920,周涨 +210(+0.89%);周成交 885,239 手,周持仓 −19,529 手。
  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(按构造不变):MA5 23,804.00、MA10 23,799.00、MA20 23,889.25、MA30 23,692.67、MA40 23,552.12、MA60 23,581.33。收盘 23,920 高于全部六条,分别高出 116.00、121.00、30.75、227.33、367.88、338.67 元。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位 46.8%,60 日分位 74.1%;对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例 57.4%。
  • ⚑ 位置判断(此为解读):收盘价处于 20 日区间(23,595–24,290)的中位偏上、60 日区间的高位区。MA20 为六条均线中最贴近的一条,仅 30.75 元,是全部技术结构中最脆弱的一环。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:转载

  • AO2610:开 2,614,高 2,651,低 2,605,收 2,648,结算 2,629;+34(+1.30%);持仓 228,594 手(−52,356,为本简报记录到的最大单日降幅)。均线 MA5 2,653.20、MA10 2,667.30、MA20 2,676.45、MA30 2,687.90、MA40 2,695.95、MA60 2,750.60——收盘低于全部六条,分别低 5.20、19.30、28.45、39.90、47.95、102.60 元。20 日分位 30.1%,60 日分位 10.5%。
  • 夜盘:开 2,656,高 2,700,低 2,649,末价 2,688,均价 2,685.21,成交 174,123 手,持仓 229,401 手(+807)。2,688 高于 MA30 仅 0.10 元。
  • AD2610 收 23,215(−20,−0.09%)。均线六条中守住五条,仅 MA20 23,269.00 在上方 54.00 元。AD 减 AL 价差 705,夜盘回到 585。

⚑ 伦铝:本期由 Westmetall 官方表格独立核实,非转述

  • ⚑ 8月28日:现货结算 3,222.00 美元(+9.50,+0.30%),三个月 3,241.00 美元(+25.00,+0.78%),contango 19.00 美元,库存 246,725 吨(−100)。三项与上期完全一致。
  • ⚑ 此前五个交易日亦全部确认、无任何修订:8月27日 3,212.50 / 3,216.00 / 246,825;8月26日 3,227.50 / 3,239.00 / 246,825;8月25日 3,188.00 / 3,206.50 / 246,825;8月24日 3,215.50 / 3,235.00 / 246,925;8月21日 3,227.00 / 3,244.00 / 246,925。
  • 伦铝均线:MA5 3,213.10、MA10 3,215.70、MA20 3,249.62、MA30 3,229.72、MA40 3,209.09、MA60 3,245.79 美元。现货高于 MA5 8.90、MA10 6.30、MA40 12.91;低于 MA20 27.62、MA30 7.72、MA60 23.79。六条中站上三条。沪伦比值 7.4239。
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics 第三次重述 8月28日:3,245.45 美元(+9.00,+0.28%),月度 +2.10%,年度 +23.87%;同源稍后刷新为月度 +2.00%、年度 +23.74%;上期所载为 3,242.15 美元(+0.18%)。该序列跟踪远月而非现货,仅列示、不调和。

解读

  • 本期核实的意义大于表面。 上期所载伦铝数字全部来自转述;本期由官方表格逐日复核,连续六个交易日零修订。这意味着两项本简报此前标注为「最具后果」的事实现已确认:contango 由 19.50 → 3.50 的三步坍塌在一个交易日内全额反转回 19.00(证伪了本简报自己提出的近月趋紧多头论据),以及库存创本轮新低 246,725 吨。核实是双向的,此处同时确认了一条偏空的曲线与一条偏多的库存。
  • 沪铝的技术位置未变:全部六条均线在价格之下,但 MA20 仅 30.75 元。 这是「刚刚站上」而不是「站稳」。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货转载(8月28日)

  • 上海现货 23,900(−20),基差 −20;长江 23,920(持平);中原 23,920(持平);中铝华东 23,900(−20)、华南 24,110(−40)、西南 23,940(−30)、华中 23,790(−40);南海 24,390(−40);广东南储 24,110(−50)。
  • 价差:南海减上海 490、南储减上海 210、中铝华南减华东 210——三条同时收窄,为连续第二个交易日。
  • SMM A00(8月27日)23,920 元(+50),升贴水 −10。

⚑ 新增:铝棒库存的一项此前未披露的属性,以及一组反向的加工费

  • ⚑ 本简报自 8月21日起载入的 143,000 吨(8月20日口径)为近五年同期最高水平:佛山 6.6 万吨、无锡 2.65 万吨,湖州与南昌继续小幅累库;较上周一 +500 吨,较上周四 +6,000 吨;8月10–17 日出库量 30,300 吨(周环比 +2,800 吨)。
  • ⚑ 同一周内,铝棒加工费在所有地区、所有规格全线上涨,而 SMM A00 周内下跌约 520 元:
    • 佛山:φ90 310 元/吨(+150),φ120 260 元/吨(+150)
    • 无锡:φ90 560 元/吨(+140),φ120 500 元/吨(+200)
    • 南昌:φ90 450 元/吨(+250),φ120 400 元/吨(+250)
  • ⚑ 解读:在金属下跌 520 元的同时全线抬升加工费,是供应端在产量走弱时守住利润率,而不是买方在为货源竞价(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 另一套口径(经检索摘要取得、非 SMM 原页)载 8月28日主流消费地铝棒库存 134,000 吨,较周一 +1,000 吨、周环比 +9,500 吨,归因于北方铝棒到货流入华南仓库。该数字与本简报所载 8月20日 143,000 吨在算术上不自洽,二者为不同口径或不同窗口,仅列示,不调和、不取均值。

⊘ 新增:铸造铝合金累库是两周,不是一周,且在加速

  • ⊘ 铸造铝合金社会库存 28,100 吨,周环比 +2,500 吨。SMM 明确表述为连续第二周累库,且累库幅度较上一周扩大,原因为「下游采购意愿偏低、市场出货节奏偏慢」,叠加阶段性期现套利补货;并指引后续继续累库。
  • 本简报此前两期将该数字作为单周数据载入,本期升级为两周趋势。

再生铝与氧化铝:转载

  • ADC12 23,900 元(周四对周四 −300),A00 23,600(−520),ADC12 对 A00 升水 300 元;A00 减破碎生铝 1,150,A00 减混合型材 2,360;破碎生铝 19,900–20,700;海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元;马来西亚 FOB 巴生港 3,090 美元,泰国 FOB 林查班 ~3,070 美元。再生铝开工率 49.1%。
  • SMM 氧化铝指数 2,676(8月27日);中铝五地报价:山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660——全部高于盘面 2,648,高出 12 至 137 元。两套成本口径 2,718 与 2,826.21,盘面分别低 70 与 178.21 元。氧化铝/铝比价 11.07%。
  • ⚑ 新增:几内亚铝土矿 FOB 38–42 美元/吨、CIF 70–74 美元/吨,均价周环比均持平(8月中旬口径)。几内亚上半年出口 1.148 亿吨(同比 +15%),二季度 5,390 万吨(同比 +5.3%);2025 全年 1.83 亿吨,2026 年出口轨迹指向约 2 亿吨;逾 70% 流向中国;出口管控措施于 6 月宣布。

解读

  • 本期铝价一栏的净方向偏空,原因不在价格,而在两条实物序列。 铝棒库存处于近五年同期最高,加工费在金属下跌时逆向上行;铸造铝合金已连续两周累库且加速。两者共同描述的是「货在积累、下游不接」。
  • 氧化铝的相对位置未变:盘面在全部六条均线之下、在两套成本之下,而生产商报价全部在盘面之上。 这是一个「盘面低于产业报价」的结构,短期回补由空头回补驱动,而非由供需驱动(此为解读)。

三 · 库存

转载:铝锭去库继续,但速度放慢;铝棒与合金在累

  • SMM 国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存 85.2 万吨(8月27日),周环比 −2.3 万吨,连续第七周去库;自 7月23日的 100.6 万吨累计下降 15.4 万吨。
  • ⊘ 另一套口径将同一日期载为 82.1 万吨(周环比 −1.4 万吨),来自券商晨报,非 SMM 社会库存序列;两者仅列示、不调和、不取均值。
  • 上期所铝库存周报(8月24–28日)391,498 吨,周环比 −12,299 吨,较上一周的 −18,300 吨放慢;注册仓单 245,510 吨,周环比 −28,691 吨(其中周五单日 −5,664)。
  • 保税区库存 11.6 万吨(8月27日,−1,000 吨);氧化铝上期所周度库存 323,736 吨(−38,827)。
  • 伦铝库存 246,725 吨(−100),为本轮新低;伦铝铝合金库存 1,500 吨,持平。
  • ⚑ 铝棒 143,000 吨(近五年同期最高);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨(+2,500,连续第二周累库且加速)。

解读

  • 库存栏本期呈现清晰的分层,而这一分层比总量更有信息量:铝锭在去,铝棒与铝合金在累。
  • 去库的支撑力度正在减弱,而非增强。 上期所口径由 −18,300 放慢至 −12,299 吨;社会库存的周降幅虽仍为 −2.3 万吨,但铝水直供比例高企意味着到货减少仍是主因之一,本简报无法据此上调需求判断(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 一个不宜忽略的组合:铝锭去库 + 铝棒五年新高 + 合金连续累库,最自洽的解释是「铝水没有变成铝锭,而是变成了下游不接的中间品」。 这与 8 月加工 PMI 改善并不矛盾——前者是流向,后者是景气度(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 一项必须更正:黄金的反应远大于上期所载

  • ⚑ 黄金收盘下跌 3.13% 至 4,456 美元/盎司,为年内最差单日;12 月期金结算下跌 3.35% 至 4,529.90 美元;白银下跌 4.24% 至 66.21 美元。
  • ⚑ 上期所载「−0.94% 至 4,559.79 美元」为演讲后二十五分钟内的盘中读数,低估实际反应逾三分之二。本期予以更正。
  • 8 月仍为黄金自 1999 年以来最好的单月,约 +9.5%。

⚑ 联储与曲线:第三套 9 月口径,以及一条更有用的信号

  • ⚑ 9月16日加息概率第三套口径为 57.5%(前值 35.4%),与已载入的 55.7% 与「接近 60%」并列;演讲前维持利率概率约 70%。演讲当日为沃什就任主席第 100 天。
  • ⚑ 曲线才是更有用的信号,且只在周度维度显现:两年期周五 +11.8 个基点、本周 +23 个基点至 4.348%;十年期本周 −1 个基点至 4.72%;三十年期 −6 个基点至 5.21%;2s30s 由 115 个基点平坦化至 86 个基点。
  • ⚑ 沃什所用算式:六个月年化 PCE 4.1%,高于十二个月的 3.7%;消费篮子中 54% 的分项涨幅超过 3%(疫情前为 32%);失业率 4.1%。
  • ⊘ 8月28日的 10 月与 12 月合约条带连续第二期未取得。上期所载 10 月「加息 52.5% 对维持 47.5%」的交叉与 12 月的 72.7% 均为 8月27日数据,不得作为演讲后读数。本简报已确认美元跟踪的是年末口径而非 9 月口径,故该缺口是本期最需要在周一补上的一项。

⊘ 美元与原油:两项口径与上期不一致

  • ⊘ 美元指数被重述为 99.64(+0.540,+0.55%),上期所载为 99.677(+0.518,+0.52%)。两套口径方向一致、幅度不同,仅列示不调和;两者均确认站上 99。
  • ⊘ 布伦特被载为 89.31 美元(−0.39,−0.43%)与结算 89.45 美元,而上期所载为 88.29 美元(−0.26%),差距超过 1 美元。周度布伦特 −5.3%,WTI −4.3% 至 83.31 美元。三套口径,仅列示不调和。

⚑ 新增:地缘——制裁通道双向升级

  • ⚑ 美国财长贝森特称「伊朗的经济版诺曼底登陆日即将到来」,并对与德黑兰有业务往来的第三国发出威胁;美方推出新一轮制裁。
  • ⚑ 宣布后数小时内,伊朗方面在霍尔木兹海峡袭击一艘油轮。
  • ⚑ 阿曼湾观察到至少 15 笔船对船过驳作业,涉及数百万桶原油,部分油轮据称关闭了船舶追踪信号。
  • ⚑ 伊朗最高安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊威胁称,若邻国加入美方经济打压,伊朗将彻底切断经该海峡的石油流量;伊朗方面另称已有「两年计划」以承受制裁。
  • ⊘ 通行量口径不自洽:一处载 8月17日至24日通行 114 艘次、增幅超 30%,另一处载战前基准「约每日 73 艘次」。两者时间单位不同,仅列示,不据此计算任何比例。

⚑ 新增:加拿大 9月8日反制关税的细节大于标题

  • ⚑ 钢铝反制税率由 25% 升至 50%,以对等匹配美方税率;覆盖 300 余项金属产品及衍生品,平轧钢材与铝棒被明确点名。
  • 整体清单约 700 项美国产品,按 15%、25%、50% 三档逐项对等匹配,回应美方自 8月22日起对 276 亿美元加拿大商品加征的 50% 关税。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • 对铝而言,本期宏观栏是「前端偏空、远端中性偏多」。 9 月加息概率的第三套口径确认了重定价的规模,美元站上 99 是明确的逆风;但曲线的熊平——两年期 +23 个基点而三十年期 −6 个基点——说明长端愿意为一个可信的通胀目标付费,这不是「滞胀定价」,而是「政策可信度定价」(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 而铝在同一个下午的表现仍是本简报最干净的非确认: 黄金创下年内最差单日,伦铝电子盘三个月合约却收高 18 美元。铝不仅没有跟随鹰派重定价,方向还相反。
  • 加拿大关税与伊朗制裁是两条不同性质的通道:前者是需求侧的贸易摩擦(偏空),后者是供给侧的实物风险(偏多)。 本期两条同时升级。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 本期最重要的新增:8 月铝加工 PMI 48.7%

  • ⚑ 中国 8 月铝加工行业综合 PMI 48.7%,7 月为 42.2%,环比改善 6.5 个百分点(此为推算),为本简报在该序列上记录到的最大单月改善。
  • ⚑ SMM 表述为「整体弱复苏」,并称板块间「分化明显」;预计 9 月重回扩张区间。
  • ⊘ 8 月分项表未取得。以下 7 月七个分项仅作为比较基准,不得读作 8 月数值:板带 44.8%、铝箔 39.0%、建筑型材 39.7%、工业型材 42.1%、线缆 44.4%、原生合金 43.9%、再生合金 37.6%(7 月七项全部低于 50)。
  • ⊘ 同期周度开工率并不完全印证广泛改善:铝型材 50.6%(−0.2pp)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3pp)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6pp)——两升、一平、一降。月度调查与周度开工率为不同工具、不同窗口,仅列示、不调和。

⚑ 供给:一条本简报此前未量化的海外口径

  • ⚑ 卡塔尔 Qatalum 仍维持在名义产能约 60% 运行——约 39 万吨/年(名义 64.8 万吨/年),约 3.25 万吨/月;该水平自 3 月 QatarEnergy 确认「减供而非断供」后确立。本简报此前载有该厂受限事实,但未载有百分比。
  • 巴林 Alba 1–3 号电解线受控停产,占其产能 19%(约 31.1 万吨/年);巴西 Alunorte 维持 50%。
  • EGA 阿联酋 Al Taweelah 已复产 1,262 槽中的 315 槽,恢复度由 18% 升至 25%,全面复产目标 2027 年一季度。
  • 力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月起减产 40%(年减约 120 万吨氧化铝);美铝 2026 年氧化铝产量指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝行业开工率被引用为 98.4%,基本处于满产状态(对照 4,500 万吨产能天花板)。
  • ⚑ 欧洲上半年:电解铝产量 +4.9%,而氧化铝产量 −1.8%;自 2022 年以来欧洲已永久或半永久损失逾 100 万吨电解产能。

⚑ 废铝:压力有了一条出口腿

  • ⚑ 美国上半年废铝出口同比 +21% 至 125 万吨,最大买家为泰国与印度。
  • 本简报此前载有中国国内反向开票政策造成的合规废铝稀缺;本期新增的是同一稀缺在国际端的另一条腿——美国废料流向东南亚与印度,而非中国(此为解读)。
  • 转载:中国 7 月废铝进口约 119,600 吨,较 6 月 133,000 吨环比 −10.1%。

⊘ 企业:一条互相冲突的产能消息

  • ⊘ 明泰铝业 72 万吨铝基新材料项目:一处来源载「2026 年内建成,预计新增收入约 139 亿元」;另一处载「变更募资用途,投入 59 亿元,项目总投资 15.2 亿元,预计 2027 年 11 月建成」,产品覆盖新能源电池、低空经济、机器人、金属包装、汽车与铝挂车材料。两者在建成时间与投资规模上冲突,仅列示、不调和。

解读

  • 基本面栏本期出现本简报四周以来第一条方向向上的需求证据,但它只有一条腿。 月度 PMI 改善 6.5 个百分点是实数;周度开工率两升一平一降不构成印证;铝棒与合金库存则明确反向。
  • ⚑ 因此本简报的措辞是「8 月停止恶化」,而不是「8 月开始复苏」。 二者的差别在于 48.7% 仍在 50 之下——8 月该行业仍在收缩,只是收缩得更慢。
  • 供给侧本期净偏多: Qatalum 的 60% 口径首次量化,中国开工率 98.4% 意味着国内没有可用的增产弹性,涨价只能由海外复产回应,而海外复产正处于爬坡而非投产阶段。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

转载:8月28日成交与情绪

  • 8月28日在盘面上涨 100 元的同时,九套现货口径无一上涨:两套持平、七套下跌;中铝四地报价全部下调。基差由 +100 崩至 −20,为本轮首次贴水。
  • 华南三条价差连续第二个交易日同时收窄(南海减上海 510 → 490;南储减上海 240 → 210;中铝华南减华东 230 → 210)。上期据此已将「华南偏紧属结构性」由「水平维持」下调为「正在消退」。
  • ⊘ 情绪指数本期未取得,不作估计。上期所载周度下游开工率:型材 50.6%、板带 69.2%、铝箔 70.7%、线缆 63.0%。
  • 日本 MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨(−10)。

解读

  • 现货栏的判断与上期一致且未被本周末的信息推翻: 盘面走强而实物不跟,升水是第一个被交出的东西。
  • ⚑ 本期新增的两条实物库存(铝棒五年新高、合金两周累库)与之方向一致。 三条独立序列指向同一件事:8 月末的下游是「按需采购、不接货」,而非「补库」(此为解读)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑ 8 月铝加工 PMI 48.7%,较 7 月 42.2% 改善 6.5 个百分点,为该序列最大单月改善;SMM 预计 9 月重回扩张。
  • ⚑ 铝锭社会库存 85.2 万吨,连续第七周去库,自 7月23日累计 −15.4 万吨。
  • ⚑ 伦铝库存 246,725 吨,创本轮新低,且已由 Westmetall 官方表格核实。
  • ⚑ 沪铝收盘站上全部六条均线,20 日/60 日分位 46.8%/74.1%,回撤比例改善至 57.4%。
  • ⚑ 卡塔尔 Qatalum 仍仅运行在名义产能约 60%(约 39 万吨/年),叠加 Alba 19%、Alunorte 50%——海外供给缺口比本简报此前量化的更深。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,国内无增产弹性可用。
  • ⚑ 制裁与海峡风险同日升级:贝森特「经济诺曼底日」、新一轮制裁、海峡内油轮遇袭、雷扎伊威胁彻底切断流量。
  • ⚑ 美国废铝出口 +21% 至 125 万吨流向泰国与印度,合规废料稀缺的国际端加剧,再生铝成本支撑不易塌。
  • ⚑ 铝在沃什演讲后的当日仍收高:黄金创年内最差单日,伦铝电子三个月合约却 +18 美元。
  • ⚑ 曲线熊平(2y +23bp / 30y −6bp,2s30s 115 → 86)是「政策可信度定价」,对远端工业金属并非纯逆风。
  • ⚑ 中铝五地氧化铝报价 2,660–2,785 元全部高于盘面 2,648,盘面仍低于两套成本 70 与 178.21 元。
  • ⚑ 力拓 Yarwun 10 月起减产 120 万吨/年、美铝下调 20–30 万吨——氧化铝远端供给在收缩。
  • ⚑ 欧洲上半年电解铝 +4.9% 而氧化铝 −1.8%,区域缺口两端同时扩大。
  • ⚑ 几内亚铝土矿 FOB 38–42、CIF 70–74 美元周环比持平,矿端成本刚性未松。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘ 8 月铝加工 PMI 仍在 50 下方,行业仍在收缩;SMM 自称「弱复苏」且「分化明显」;8 月分项表未取得,改善的广度无法验证。
  • ⊘ 周度开工率两升一平一降(型材 −0.2pp),不印证广泛改善。
  • ⊘ 铝棒库存 143,000 吨为近五年同期最高,佛山 6.6 万、无锡 2.65 万。
  • ⊘ 铝棒加工费在 A00 周内下跌 520 元的同时全线上涨(佛山 +150、无锡 +140/+200、南昌 +250),为供应端守利润而非买方竞价。
  • ⊘ 铸造铝合金库存 28,100 吨,连续第二周累库且加速,SMM 指引继续累库。
  • ⊘ 基差 −20,现货贴水盘面;九套现货口径在盘面 +100 当日无一上涨;中铝四地全部下调。
  • ⊘ 华南三条价差连续第二日同时收窄,「华南结构性偏紧」已被下调为「正在消退」。
  • ⊘ 伦铝 contango 由 3.50 一步反转回 19.00 美元,近月趋紧的多头论据被证伪(本期由官方表格确认)。
  • ⊘ 上期所周度去库由 −18,300 放慢至 −12,299 吨。
  • ⊘ 美元站上 99(99.64 / 99.677),9 月加息概率第三套口径 57.5%。
  • ⊘ 黄金实际下跌 3.13% 而非 0.94%——鹰派冲击的量级大于上期所载。
  • ⊘ 加拿大 9月8日起钢铝反制税率 25% → 50%,覆盖 300 余项金属产品,铝棒被点名。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝仍低于全部六条均线,且过剩叙事(产能溢出、库存累积)未变。
  • ⊘ EGA 复产由 18% 升至 25%,海外缺口在边际回填。
  • ⊘ 铝锭去库的属性仍为「到货减少驱动」,而铝棒与合金同时累库,指向铝水转化为下游不接的中间品。

八 · 一句话观点

周日刊不新增价格,全部均线按构造不变,本期的价值在于需求栏首次出现方向向上的证据而实物库存同时反向——中国 8 月铝加工 PMI 录得 48.7%,较 7 月 42.2% 改善 6.5 个百分点,为该序列最大单月改善,SMM 并预计 9 月重回扩张,但它仍在 50 之下、仍属收缩,SMM 自称「弱复苏、分化明显」,8 月分项表未取得因而改善的广度无法验证,且同期周度开工率两升一平一降并不印证;与之相对,本期新增的两条实物序列明确偏空——铝棒库存 143,000 吨为近五年同期最高(佛山 6.6 万、无锡 2.65 万),而加工费在 A00 周内下跌约 520 元的同时全线上涨(佛山 +150、无锡 +140/+200、南昌 +250),是供应端守利润而非买方竞价,铸造铝合金 28,100 吨已确认为连续第二周且加速的累库;伦铝方面 Westmetall 官方表格逐日复核了上期全部数字并零修订,因而 contango 由 3.50 一步反转回 19.00 美元(证伪本简报自己提出的近月趋紧论据)与库存创本轮新低 246,725 吨两项同时确认;宏观栏本期须作一项更正——黄金实际收盘下跌 3.13% 至 4,456 美元(年内最差单日)而非上期所载的 −0.94%,白银 −4.24%,鹰派冲击的量级远大于上期所报,但铝在同一下午的电子盘仍收高 18 美元,这一非确认因此更强而非更弱,同时曲线熊平(2y +23bp、30y −6bp、2s30s 115 → 86)显示长端在为可信的通胀目标付费;供给侧本期净偏多,Qatalum 首次量化为名义产能约 60%(约 39 万吨/年)、中国开工率 98.4% 意味着国内无增产弹性;政策与地缘两条通道同时升级——加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制由 25% 升至 50% 覆盖 300 余项并点名铝棒(偏空),制裁新一轮叠加海峡油轮遇袭与雷扎伊的断流威胁(偏多);因此本期结论与上期同向而证据结构更清晰:盘面站上全部六条均线但 MA20 仅 30.75 元、现货贴水 20 元、铝锭在去库而铝棒与合金在累库,周一将同时面对中国 8 月制造业 PMI(市场预期约 49.6,7 月 49.2)与沃什演讲后的首个日盘定价,两项需求数据将在 72 小时内先后落地。

九 · 周一(8月31日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 中国 8 月制造业 PMI(周一发布,预期约 49.6,7 月 49.2),并与 8 月铝加工 PMI 的 48.7% 交叉阅读。 这是本周最重要的单一变量。若全国 PMI 同样改善并接近或站上 50,则本简报自 7 月以来无法成立的需求论据首次获得两条腿;若全国 PMI 继续低于预期,则 48.7% 只是一个仍在收缩的经济体内部的行业性反弹。注意两者口径不同、不可相互替代:一个是全国制造业,一个是铝加工分行业。
  • ⚑ MA20(23,889.25)是否守住,这是全部技术结构中最脆弱的一环。 收盘 23,920 仅高出 30.75 元,而 MA5(23,804.00)与 MA10(23,799.00)在下方形成 5 元宽的密集带。下行序列:23,889.25(MA20)→ 23,845(夜盘低点,沃什后的印记)→ 23,840(日盘低点)→ 23,804.00 / 23,799.00(MA5 与 MA10)→ 23,692.67(MA30)。上行序列:23,990(夜盘高点,演讲前印记)→ 24,000(SMM 区间上沿)→ 24,025(日盘高点)→ 24,075(周内高点)。跌破 MA20 意味着上周五「六条均线全部收复」只维持了一个交易日。
  • ⚑ 基差是否修复,以及华南三条价差是否第三次同时收窄。 8月28日基差由 +100 崩至 −20 是本轮首次贴水。若周一现货继续落后盘面、基差进一步走负,则「盘面独走、实物不认」由单日事件变为趋势;若基差回到平水以上,则 8月28日可能只是周末前的时点差。华南三条价差若连续第三日收窄,本简报将进一步下调对区域升水的判断。
  • ⚑ 10 月与 12 月联邦基金合约条带——这是本简报连续第二期的缺口,必须在周一补上。 本简报已确认美元跟踪的是年末口径而非 9 月口径,因此仅凭 9 月的 55.7%/57.5%/~60% 三套口径无法判断美元 99.64/99.677 的这次突破有多少是持久的。同步关注美元能否守住 99,以及两年期 4.348% 与三十年期 5.21% 的利差(2s30s 86bp)是否继续平坦化。
  • ⚑ 铝棒与铸造铝合金库存的下一个印记,读法比铝锭更重要。 铝棒 143,000 吨已是近五年同期最高,合金 28,100 吨已是连续第二周加速累库。若两者继续同向累积而铝锭继续去库,则「铝水未变成铝锭而变成下游不接的中间品」这一解释被强化,铝锭去库对价格的支撑意义应相应下调;若铝棒转为去库且加工费回落,则 8 月加工 PMI 的改善获得实物印证。
  • ⚑ 伦铝:contango 是否守住 19.00 美元,库存 246,725 吨之后的首个变动方向,以及现货能否上攻 MA30(3,229.72)与 MA60(3,245.79)。 六条均线中现已站上三条,MA30 仅 7.72 美元之遥,是最近的一条。若 contango 再度收窄而库存继续下降,近月趋紧的论据将第二次被提出——但本期已确认它上一次被证伪,故需要连续两个交易日的确认而非一日。同步关注沪伦比值 7.4239 的方向。
  • ⚑ 制裁与海峡:新一轮美方制裁是否触及铝、氧化铝相关实体或散货航运,以及阿曼湾船对船过驳与油轮遇袭是否重复发生。 通行量口径本期自身不自洽(114 艘次对「约每日 73 艘次」),不作比例计算;可操作的观察点是海湾散货氧化铝与原材料航运是否出现新的中断——这正是造成海湾 7 月产量同比 −44% 的通道,也是 Qatalum 停在 60%、Alba 停在 81% 的原因。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

  • This is a Weekend Edition (Sunday), written the morning of Sunday, August 30.
  • ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED since the August 28 night session closed at 01:00 Saturday. Every futures price, settlement, open interest and moving average in this brief is therefore IDENTICAL to the prior edition’s by construction and is RESTATED, not re-derived.
  • ⚑ UNLIKE THE AUGUST 23 SUNDAY EDITION, THERE IS NO BLIND SPOT. The August 28 night session was carried in full in the prior edition (open 23,935, high 23,990, low 23,845, last 23,925, VWAP 23,919.97, volume 79,417, open interest 246,395, −1,514). Monday’s open will not contain a session this brief has not seen.
  • ⚑ What this edition adds lands in the demand column — the weakest column in this brief since the start of August, and it has moved.

⚑ SHFE: restated, averages unchanged by construction

  • AL2610: open 23,850, high 24,025, low 23,840, close 23,920, settlement 23,930, previous settlement 23,835; +100 (+0.42%) close-over-close and +85 (+0.36%) on the previous settlement; volume 152,178 (−18.7%), open interest 247,909 (+248); complex open interest 597,807 (+3,337).
  • On the week: open 23,800, high 24,075, low 23,695, close 23,920, +210 (+0.89%); weekly volume 885,239; weekly open interest −19,529.
  • ⚑ Moving averages, unchanged by construction: MA5 23,804.00, MA10 23,799.00, MA20 23,889.25, MA30 23,692.67, MA40 23,552.12, MA60 23,581.33. The close of 23,920 is ABOVE ALL SIX, by 116.00, 121.00, 30.75, 227.33, 367.88 and 338.67 respectively.
  • ⚑ Twenty-session close percentile 46.8%; sixty-session 74.1%; retracement of the August 3–12 advance 57.4%.
  • ⚑ WHERE THIS SITS IN THE RANGE (interpretation): the close is mid-to-upper in the twenty-session band of 23,595–24,290 and in the upper portion of the sixty-session band. MA20 at 30.75 away is by far the tightest of the six and is the most fragile element in the whole technical structure — this is a reclaim, not yet a hold.

⚑ Alumina and cast alloy: restated

  • AO2610: open 2,614, high 2,651, low 2,605, close 2,648, settlement 2,629; +34 (+1.30%); open interest 228,594 (−52,356, the largest single-session decline this brief has recorded). MA5 2,653.20, MA10 2,667.30, MA20 2,676.45, MA30 2,687.90, MA40 2,695.95, MA60 2,750.60 — the close is BELOW ALL SIX by 5.20, 19.30, 28.45, 39.90, 47.95 and 102.60. Percentiles 30.1% and 10.5%.
  • Night session: open 2,656, high 2,700, low 2,649, last 2,688, VWAP 2,685.21, volume 174,123, open interest 229,401 (+807). The last print of 2,688 is 0.10 above MA30.
  • AD2610 closed 23,215 (−20, −0.09%), holding five of six averages with only MA20 (23,269.00) above by 54.00. The AD−AL discount is 705 on the day close and 585 on the night prints.

⚑ LME: independently VERIFIED this edition from Westmetall’s official table, not relayed

  • ⚑ August 28: cash $3,222.00 (+$9.50, +0.30%), three-month $3,241.00 (+$25.00, +0.78%), contango $19.00, stocks 246,725 mt (−100). All three are IDENTICAL to the prior edition.
  • ⚑ The five preceding sessions also confirm with no revision whatsoever: Aug 27 $3,212.50 / $3,216.00 / 246,825; Aug 26 $3,227.50 / $3,239.00 / 246,825; Aug 25 $3,188.00 / $3,206.50 / 246,825; Aug 24 $3,215.50 / $3,235.00 / 246,925; Aug 21 $3,227.00 / $3,244.00 / 246,925.
  • Moving averages: MA5 $3,213.10, MA10 $3,215.70, MA20 $3,249.62, MA30 $3,229.72, MA40 $3,209.09, MA60 $3,245.79. Cash is above MA5 by $8.90, MA10 by $6.30 and MA40 by $12.91; below MA20 by $27.62, MA30 by $7.72 and MA60 by $23.79. Three of six. SHFE-LME ratio 7.4239.
  • ⊘ TradingEconomics restates August 28 for a THIRD time at $3,245.45 (+$9.00, +0.28%), month +2.10%, year +23.87%, with a later same-source refresh at month +2.00% and year +23.74%, against the $3,242.15 (+0.18%) carried. The series tracks the LME FORWARD rather than the cash; the restatements are listed and NOT reconciled.

Interpretation

  • Verification matters more here than it sounds. Every London number in the prior edition was relayed; this edition checked six consecutive sessions against the official table and found zero revisions. The consequence is that the two London facts this brief flagged as most consequential are now confirmed rather than provisional: the contango’s entire three-step collapse from $19.50 to $3.50 was reversed in ONE session back to $19.00 — which falsifies the nearby-tightening case this brief had itself put forward as London’s hardest bullish argument — and stocks made a new low of the run at 246,725 mt. Verification cuts both ways, and here it confirms a bearish curve alongside a bullish stock.
  • The SHFE technical position is unchanged: all six averages are behind the price, but MA20 is only 30.75 away. That is a reclaim, not a hold, and it is the number Monday tests first.

Spot, restated (August 28)

  • Shanghai spot 23,900 (−20) for a basis of −20; Changjiang 23,920 (flat); Zhongyuan 23,920 (flat); Chalco East 23,900 (−20), South 24,110 (−40), Southwest 23,940 (−30), Central 23,790 (−40); Nanhai 24,390 (−40); Guangdong Nanchu 24,110 (−50).
  • Spreads: Nanhai−Shanghai 490, Nanchu−Shanghai 210, Chalco South−East 210 — all three narrowing for a second consecutive session.
  • SMM A00 (August 27) 23,920 (+50), premium/discount −10.

⚑ NEW: an undisclosed property of the billet number this brief has been carrying — and a set of fees that moved the wrong way

  • ⚑ The 143,000 mt August 20 print carried since August 21 is THE HIGHEST LEVEL FOR THE PERIOD IN FIVE YEARS: Foshan 66,000 mt, Wuxi 26,500 mt, with continued slight buildup at Huzhou and Nanchang; +500 mt on the prior Monday and +6,000 mt on the prior Thursday; warehouse withdrawals for August 10–17 at 30,300 mt (+2,800 w/w).
  • ⚑ In the same week, billet processing fees ROSE in every region and every gauge while SMM A00 fell approximately 520 yuan/mt:
    • Foshan: φ90 310 yuan/mt (+150), φ120 260 yuan/mt (+150)
    • Wuxi: φ90 560 yuan/mt (+140), φ120 500 yuan/mt (+200)
    • Nanchang: φ90 450 yuan/mt (+250), φ120 400 yuan/mt (+250)
  • ⚑ INTERPRETATION: a processing fee that rises across the board into a 520-yuan weekly fall in the metal is a supplier protecting margin as throughput weakens. It is not a buyer bidding for material.
  • ⊘ A SECOND BILLET CALIBER, retrieved via search summary rather than a primary SMM page, puts mainstream-consumption-area billet at 134,000 mt on August 28, +1,000 mt on Monday and +9,500 mt week-on-week, attributed to higher arrivals from north China into south China warehouses. That is NOT arithmetically consistent with the 143,000 mt August 20 print carried here; the two are different calibers or different windows, and they are listed, NOT reconciled and NOT averaged.

⊘ NEW: the cast-alloy build is two weeks, not one, and it accelerated

  • ⊘ Cast aluminium alloy social inventory 28,100 mt, +2,500 mt week-on-week. SMM states explicitly that this is the SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK of buildup and that the expansion ACCELERATED against the prior week, on “low downstream purchase willingness and slow market shipment pace” plus periodic spot-futures arbitrage replenishment, with further buildup expected.
  • The prior two editions carried this figure as a single-week datum; it is upgraded here to a two-week trend.

Secondary and alumina: restated

  • ADC12 23,900 (−300 Thu/Thu) against A00 23,600 (−520) for a premium of 300; A00 minus shredded 1,150, A00 minus mixed extrusion 2,360; shredded 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090, Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070. Secondary operating rate 49.1%.
  • SMM alumina index 2,676 (August 27); Chalco’s five regional listings — Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660 — all sit ABOVE the AO2610 close of 2,648, by 12 to 137. The two cost calibers of 2,718 and 2,826.21 remain 70 and 178.21 above the board. Alumina-to-aluminium ratio 11.07%.
  • ⚑ NEW: Guinean bauxite FOB $38–42/mt and CIF $70–74/mt, both with the average UNCHANGED week-on-week (mid-August caliber). Guinea’s H1 2026 exports 114.8 million mt (+15% y/y), Q2 53.9 million mt (+5.3% y/y), against 183 million mt for full-year 2025 and a trajectory toward roughly 200 million mt in 2026; more than 70% goes to China; export-control steps were announced in June.

Interpretation

  • The net direction of this column is bearish, and the reason is not price but two physical series. Billet inventory is at a five-year high for the period while its processing fees rose into a falling metal; cast alloy has now built for two consecutive weeks and the build accelerated. Together they describe material accumulating and downstream not taking it.
  • Alumina’s relative position is unchanged: the board is below all six of its own averages and below both cost calibers, while every producer quotation sits above the board. That structure — a board trading beneath the industry’s own offers — is consistent with the short-covering reading of the bounce rather than a supply-demand turn (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

Restated: ingot destocking continues but slows; billet and alloy are building

  • SMM domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory 852,000 mt (August 27), −23,000 mt week-on-week, a SEVENTH consecutive draw; −154,000 mt since July 23’s 1,006,000 mt.
  • ⊘ A rival caliber puts the same date at 821,000 mt (−14,000 w/w), carried from a broker note and NOT SMM’s social series. Listed, NOT reconciled, NOT averaged.
  • SHFE weekly warehouse stocks (August 24–28) 391,498 mt, −12,299 mt week-on-week against −18,300 mt the prior week — the exchange draw SLOWED. Registered warrants 245,510 mt, −28,691 mt on the week, of which −5,664 on Friday alone.
  • Bonded inventory 116,000 mt (August 27, −1,000 w/w). Alumina SHFE weekly warehouse stocks 323,736 mt (−38,827 w/w).
  • LME stocks 246,725 mt (−100), the low of the run; LME aluminium ALLOY stocks 1,500 mt, unchanged.
  • ⚑ Billet 143,000 mt (a five-year high for the period); cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second consecutive and accelerating build).

Interpretation

  • The inventory column now shows a clean split, and the split carries more information than the totals: ingot is drawing while billet and alloy are building.
  • The support from destocking is weakening, not strengthening. The exchange caliber slowed from −18,300 to −12,299 mt. The social series still drew 23,000 mt, but with the liquid-aluminium ratio high, reduced arrivals remain a plausible driver and this brief cannot upgrade its demand read from the draw alone (interpretation).
  • ⚑ A combination worth stating plainly: ingot drawing + billet at a five-year high + alloy building two weeks running. The most self-consistent explanation is that molten metal is not becoming ingot — it is becoming intermediate product that downstream will not take. That does not contradict August’s improved processing PMI: one measures flow, the other measures sentiment (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ A correction this edition must make: the gold reaction was far larger than reported

  • ⚑ Gold CLOSED down 3.13% at $4,456/oz — its worst session of the year. December futures settled 3.35% lower at $4,529.90. Silver closed down 4.24% at $66.21.
  • ⚑ The prior edition’s “−0.94% to $4,559.79” was an intraday print measured within twenty-five minutes of the speech and understated the reaction by more than two-thirds. It is corrected here.
  • August still stands as bullion’s best month since 1999 at approximately +9.5%.

⚑ The Fed and the curve: a third September caliber, and a more useful signal

  • ⚑ A THIRD September 16 caliber prints 57.5%, up from 35.4% a day earlier, joining the 55.7% and “nearly 60%” calibers already carried. Pre-speech odds of a September HOLD were approximately 70%. The speech fell on Warsh’s 100th day as Chair.
  • ⚑ THE CURVE IS THE MORE USEFUL SIGNAL AND IT ONLY APPEARS ON THE WEEK: the two-year rose 11.8bp Friday and 23bp on the week to 4.348%, while the ten-year finished 1bp LOWER at 4.72% and the thirty-year 6bp lower at 5.21%. 2s30s flattened from 115bp to 86bp.
  • ⚑ The arithmetic Warsh used: six-month annualised PCE at 4.1% running ABOVE the twelve-month at 3.7%; 54% of the consumption basket rising faster than 3% against 32% pre-pandemic; a 4.1% jobless rate.
  • ⊘ THE OCTOBER AND DECEMBER STRIPS FOR AUGUST 28 REMAIN NOT RETRIEVABLE for a second consecutive edition. October’s 52.5%-hike-against-47.5%-hold crossover and December’s 72.7% are carried at AUGUST 27 and must NOT be read as post-speech. Since this brief established that the dollar tracks the YEAR-END caliber rather than September, this is the gap that most needs closing on Monday.

⊘ Dollar and crude: two calibers disagree with the prior edition

  • ⊘ The dollar index is restated at 99.64, +0.540 (+0.55%), against the 99.677, +0.518 (+0.52%) carried. Same direction, different magnitude; listed and NOT reconciled. Both confirm the break above 99.
  • ⊘ Brent is given at $89.31, −$0.39 (−0.43%) on one caliber and $89.45 settled on another, against the $88.29 (−0.26%) carried — a gap of more than a dollar. Weekly losses: Brent −5.3%, WTI −4.3% at $83.31. Three calibers on one session, listed and NOT reconciled.

⚑ NEW: geopolitics — the sanctions channel escalated on both sides

  • ⚑ US Treasury Secretary Bessent said “an economic D-Day is coming for Iran” and threatened third countries doing business with Tehran; a new US sanctions wave was announced.
  • ⚑ Iranian forces ATTACKED an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within hours of the announcement.
  • ⚑ At least fifteen ship-to-ship transfer operations involving millions of barrels of crude were observed in the Gulf of Oman, with tankers reportedly disabling tracking signals.
  • ⚑ Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei threatened to halt oil flows out of the strait entirely should neighbouring countries join the US crackdown; Iranian leaders state a “two-year plan” to absorb the sanctions.
  • ⊘ The transit count is published on two incompatible units: 114 transits between August 17 and 24, up more than 30%, against a stated pre-war baseline of roughly 73 PER DAY. Listed only; no ratio is computed from the pair.

⚑ NEW: Canada’s September 8 counter-tariff is bigger than the headline

  • ⚑ Steel and aluminium counter-tariffs rise from 25% to 50% to match US rates, covering MORE THAN 300 METALS PRODUCTS AND DERIVATIVES, with flat-rolled steel and ALUMINIUM BARS specifically named.
  • The full list runs to roughly 700 US products at 15%, 25% or 50%, matched good-for-good, responding to the US 50% tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods effective August 22.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • For aluminium this column is bearish at the front and neutral-to-supportive further out. A third September caliber confirms the scale of the repricing and a dollar above 99 is a clear headwind; but the bear flattening — the two-year up 23bp on the week while the thirty-year fell 6bp — is a market paying for a credible inflation target rather than pricing stagflation (interpretation).
  • ⚑ And aluminium’s behaviour on the same afternoon is now a STRONGER non-confirmation, not a weaker one. Gold had its worst session of the year while London’s post-speech electronic three-month close was UP $18 at $3,242. Aluminium did not lag the hawkish repricing; it went the other way while the most rate-sensitive metal in the complex was sold hard.
  • The Canadian tariff and the Iranian sanctions are two different channels: the first is a demand-side trade friction (bearish), the second a supply-side physical risk (bullish). Both escalated this weekend.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ The most important new item in this edition: August aluminium processing PMI 48.7%

  • ⚑ China’s August aluminium processing industry composite PMI printed 48.7% against July’s 42.2% — a 6.5-point month-on-month improvement (derivation) and the largest single-month gain this brief has recorded on the series.
  • ⚑ SMM describes an “overall weak recovery” with “notable divergence across segments” and expects a return to expansion territory in September.
  • ⊘ THE AUGUST SUB-SECTOR TABLE WAS NOT RETRIEVABLE. July’s seven readings are carried ONLY as the comparison base and must NOT be read as August figures: plate/sheet/strip 44.8%, foil 39.0%, construction extrusion 39.7%, industrial extrusion 42.1%, wire and cable 44.4%, primary alloy 43.9%, secondary alloy 37.6% — all seven below 50 in July.
  • ⊘ The weekly operating rates for the same period do NOT fully corroborate a broad improvement: extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). Two up, one flat, one down. The monthly survey and the weekly rates are different instruments over different windows; listed and NOT reconciled.

⚑ Supply: one ex-China caliber this brief had not previously quantified

  • ⚑ Qatalum remains at approximately 60% of nameplate — roughly 390,000 t/yr against 648,000 t/yr, or about 32,500 mt/month — a level set in March after QatarEnergy confirmed reduced rather than fully suspended gas. This brief has carried the constraint but not the percentage.
  • Alba’s controlled shutdown of Lines 1–3 covers 19% of its capacity (~311,000 t/yr); Alunorte remains at 50%.
  • EGA has restarted 315 of 1,262 Al Taweelah cells, taking recovery from 18% to 25%, with full production targeted for Q1 2027.
  • Rio Tinto will cut Yarwun by 40% from October (−1.2 million t/yr of alumina); Alcoa’s 2026 alumina guidance was cut 200,000–300,000 t to 9.5–9.6 million t.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate is cited at 98.4% — essentially maxed out against the 45-million-tonne cap. There is no domestic supply response available to a higher price; the marginal tonne must come from restarts abroad (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Europe H1: aluminium output +4.9% while alumina output −1.8%. Europe has permanently or semi-permanently lost more than 1 million tonnes of smelting capacity since 2022 after power crossed $0.50/kWh.

⚑ Scrap: the squeeze has acquired an export leg

  • ⚑ US aluminium scrap EXPORTS rose 21% in H1 2026 to 1.25 million mt, with Thailand and India the largest buyers.
  • This brief has carried the compliant-scrap scarcity that China’s reverse-invoicing policy created domestically; what is new is the same scarcity expressed internationally — American units are being pulled to Southeast Asia and India rather than to China (interpretation).
  • Restated: China’s July aluminium scrap imports approximately 119,600 mt against June’s 133,000 mt, −10.1% m/m.

⊘ Corporate: one capacity item reported two incompatible ways

  • ⊘ Mingtai Aluminium’s 720,000 mt aluminium-based new-materials project: one source reports it on track for completion in 2026 with an expected revenue uplift of approximately 13.9 billion yuan; another reports a redirection of RMB 5.9 billion with total project investment of RMB 1.52 billion and completion by November 2027, covering new-energy battery, low-altitude-economy, robotics, metal-packaging, automotive and aluminium-trailer materials. The two conflict on completion date and investment size; listed, NOT reconciled.

Interpretation

  • This column carries the first directionally positive demand evidence in four weeks — but it has only one leg. The 6.5-point monthly PMI gain is a real number; the weekly operating rates (two up, one flat, one down) do not corroborate it; and the billet and alloy stock series point the other way outright.
  • ⚑ This brief therefore says August “stopped getting worse”, not “began to recover”. The difference is that 48.7% is still below 50: the sector contracted in August, more slowly.
  • The supply side is net bullish this edition: Qatalum’s 60% is quantified for the first time, and a 98.4% Chinese operating rate means no domestic elasticity is available — a higher price has to be answered by overseas restarts, and those are ramping rather than commissioning.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Restated: August 28 transactions and sentiment

  • Against a board up 100 on August 28, NOT ONE of nine spot calibers rose: two flat, seven lower, with Chalco cutting all four regional producer quotations. The basis collapsed from +100 to −20, the first discount of this sequence.
  • All three South China spreads narrowed for a second consecutive session (Nanhai−Shanghai 510 → 490; Nanchu−Shanghai 240 → 210; Chalco South−East 230 → 210). The prior edition therefore downgraded “South China tightness is structural” from holding-in-level to actively fading.
  • ⊘ Shipment and procurement sentiment indices were not retrievable this edition and are NOT estimated. Weekly downstream operating rates, restated: extrusion 50.6%, sheet/strip 69.2%, foil 70.7%, wire and cable 63.0%.
  • Japan’s MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10).

Interpretation

  • The spot column’s conclusion is unchanged and nothing in the weekend’s information overturns it: the board moved and the metal did not follow, so the premium was the first thing surrendered.
  • ⚑ The two physical stock series added this edition point the same way. Billet at a five-year high and alloy building for a second accelerating week join the basis discount to make three independent series describing the same August-end behaviour: buy-as-needed, refuse the offer (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑ August aluminium processing PMI 48.7% against July’s 42.2%, a 6.5-point gain and the largest on the series; SMM expects September to return to expansion.
  • ⚑ Aluminium ingot social inventory 852,000 mt, a seventh consecutive weekly draw, −154,000 mt since July 23.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,725 mt, a new low of the run, now VERIFIED from Westmetall’s official table.
  • ⚑ AL2610 closes above all six of its own moving averages; percentiles 46.8% and 74.1%; retracement improved to 57.4%.
  • ⚑ Qatalum confirmed at only ~60% of nameplate (~390 kt/yr), alongside Alba at −19% and Alunorte at 50% — the ex-China hole is deeper in one more smelter than this brief had quantified.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate at 98.4% leaves no domestic supply elasticity.
  • ⚑ Sanctions and strait risk escalated the same day: Bessent’s “economic D-Day”, a new sanctions wave, a tanker attacked in the strait, Rezaei threatening to halt flows entirely.
  • ⚑ US scrap exports +21% to 1.25 million mt toward Thailand and India, tightening compliant-scrap availability internationally and reinforcing secondary cost support.
  • ⚑ Aluminium closed HIGHER after Warsh on the same afternoon gold had its worst session of the year: London’s electronic 3M +$18 at $3,242.
  • ⚑ The bear flattening (2y +23bp, 30y −6bp, 2s30s 115 → 86) is policy-credibility pricing rather than pure tightening risk, and is not an unambiguous headwind for a long-dated industrial metal.
  • ⚑ All five Chalco alumina regional listings (2,660–2,785) sit above the AO2610 close of 2,648, which remains 70 and 178.21 below the two cost calibers.
  • ⚑ Rio Tinto’s Yarwun −1.2 mtpa from October and Alcoa’s 200–300 kt guidance cut shrink forward alumina supply.
  • ⚑ Europe H1 aluminium output +4.9% against alumina −1.8% widens the regional gap on both sides at once.
  • ⚑ Guinean bauxite FOB $38–42 and CIF $70–74 unchanged week-on-week — ore-side cost rigidity has not loosened.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘ The August processing PMI is still BELOW 50 — the sector still contracted; SMM’s own words are “weak recovery” and “notable divergence”; the August sub-sector table was not retrievable so the breadth of the improvement cannot be verified.
  • ⊘ Weekly operating rates (two up, one flat, extrusion −0.2pp) do not corroborate a broad improvement.
  • ⊘ Billet inventory 143,000 mt is the highest for the period in FIVE YEARS, with Foshan 66,000 and Wuxi 26,500.
  • ⊘ Billet processing fees rose in every region and gauge (Foshan +150, Wuxi +140/+200, Nanchang +250) during a week A00 fell ~520 — supplier margin defence, not buyer competition.
  • ⊘ Cast alloy inventory 28,100 mt is a SECOND consecutive and ACCELERATING build, with SMM guiding to more.
  • ⊘ The basis is −20: spot at a discount to the board, with none of nine spot calibers rising on a day the board added 100 and Chalco cutting all four regions.
  • ⊘ All three South China spreads narrowed a second session; the structural-tightness claim has been downgraded to actively fading.
  • ⊘ The LME contango reversed its entire collapse in one step, $3.50 → $19.00, falsifying the nearby-tightening case — now CONFIRMED from the official table.
  • ⊘ The SHFE weekly draw slowed from −18,300 to −12,299 mt.
  • ⊘ The dollar broke above 99 (99.64 / 99.677) and a third September caliber prints 57.5%.
  • ⊘ Gold actually fell 3.13%, not 0.94% — the hawkish shock was three times larger than this brief reported.
  • ⊘ Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariffs go from 25% to 50% on September 8 across 300+ metals products, with aluminium bars named.
  • ⊘ Alumina remains below all six of its own averages and the surplus narrative (capacity overflow, accumulating inventory) is unchanged.
  • ⊘ EGA’s Al Taweelah recovery moved from 18% to 25% — the ex-China hole is refilling at the margin.
  • ⊘ The ingot draw is still consistent with reduced arrivals rather than consumption, and billet plus alloy building simultaneously points to molten metal becoming intermediate product downstream will not take.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

A Sunday edition adds no price and every moving average is unchanged by construction, so this edition’s value lies in the fact that the demand column produced its first directionally positive evidence in four weeks while the physical stock series moved the opposite way at the same time — China’s August aluminium processing PMI printed 48.7% against July’s 42.2%, a 6.5-point gain and the largest single-month improvement this brief has recorded on the series, with SMM expecting a return to expansion in September, but it remains BELOW 50 and therefore still contraction, SMM’s own words are “weak recovery” with “notable divergence across segments”, the August sub-sector table was not retrievable so the breadth of the gain cannot be verified, and the weekly operating rates over the same window (extrusion 50.6% and falling, sheet/strip flat, foil +0.3pp, wire and cable +0.6pp) do not corroborate it; against that, the two physical series added this edition are unambiguously bearish — billet inventory at 143,000 mt is the highest for the period in five years with Foshan at 66,000 and Wuxi at 26,500, and its processing fees ROSE in every region and gauge (Foshan +150, Wuxi +140/+200, Nanchang +250) during a week SMM A00 fell roughly 520 yuan, which is supplier margin defence rather than buyer competition, while cast alloy at 28,100 mt is now confirmed as a second consecutive and accelerating build; London’s numbers were verified rather than relayed for the first time, with Westmetall’s official table reproducing six consecutive sessions without a single revision, which simultaneously confirms a bearish curve (the contango reversing its entire three-step collapse from $3.50 back to $19.00, falsifying the nearby-tightening case this brief itself advanced) and a bullish stock (246,725 mt, a new low of the run); the macro column requires one correction — gold CLOSED down 3.13% at $4,456 for its worst session of the year, not the −0.94% carried, with silver −4.24%, so the hawkish shock was more than three times larger than reported, which makes aluminium’s $18 gain on London’s post-speech electronic close a STRONGER non-confirmation rather than a weaker one, while the bear flattening (2y +23bp on the week to 4.348%, 30y −6bp to 5.21%, 2s30s 115 → 86) shows the long end paying for a credible inflation target; the supply side is net bullish with Qatalum quantified at approximately 60% of nameplate for the first time and China’s smelters cited at a 98.4% operating rate that leaves no domestic elasticity; and both policy channels escalated this weekend in opposite directions, with Canada’s September 8 steel and aluminium counter-tariff rising from 25% to 50% across more than 300 metals products naming aluminium bars (bearish) against a new US sanctions wave, a tanker attacked in the strait within hours and Rezaei threatening to halt flows entirely (bullish) — so the conclusion runs the same direction as the prior edition on a clearer evidence structure: the board holds all six averages but MA20 by only 30.75, spot sits at a 20-yuan discount, ingot draws while billet and alloy build, and Monday brings China’s August manufacturing PMI against a roughly 49.6 consensus and July’s 49.2 alongside the first daylight pricing of the post-Warsh strip, with two demand prints landing within 72 hours of each other.

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s (August 31) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ China’s August manufacturing PMI (Monday, consensus ~49.6 against July’s 49.2), read across the aluminium processing PMI’s 48.7%. This is the week’s single most important variable. If the national print improves similarly and approaches or clears 50, the demand argument this brief has been unable to make since July finally has two legs; if it misses again, August’s 48.7% is a sector rebound inside an economy that is still contracting. Note the two are different calibers — one is national manufacturing, the other is the aluminium processing sub-industry — and neither substitutes for the other.
  • ⚑ Whether MA20 (23,889.25) holds, because it is the most fragile element in the entire technical structure. The close of 23,920 clears it by only 30.75, while MA5 (23,804.00) and MA10 (23,799.00) form a five-yuan-wide dense band beneath. Downside sequence: 23,889.25 (MA20) → 23,845 (the night low, the post-Warsh print) → 23,840 (the day low) → 23,804.00 / 23,799.00 → 23,692.67 (MA30). Upside: 23,990 (the night high, the pre-speech print) → 24,000 (SMM’s band ceiling) → 24,025 (the day high) → 24,075 (the week’s high). A close back below MA20 makes Friday’s six-of-six reclaim a one-session event.
  • ⚑ Whether the basis repairs, and whether the three South China spreads narrow for a THIRD consecutive session. The August 28 collapse from +100 to −20 was the first discount of this sequence. If spot keeps lagging and the basis goes further negative, “the board moves alone” upgrades from a single-day event to a trend; if the basis returns to parity or better, August 28 may prove a pre-weekend timing artifact. A third joint narrowing in South China would take this brief’s regional-premium read down another step.
  • ⚑ The October and December fed funds strips — this brief’s gap for a second consecutive edition, and the first thing to close on Monday. This brief has established that the dollar tracks the YEAR-END caliber rather than September, so the three September calibers (55.7% / 57.5% / ~60%) alone cannot say how much of the dollar’s break to 99.64–99.677 is durable. Watch alongside it whether the dollar holds 99 and whether 2s30s keeps flattening from 86bp with the two-year at 4.348% and the thirty-year at 5.21%.
  • ⚑ The next billet and cast-alloy prints, which now matter more than the ingot print. Billet is already at a five-year high for the period and alloy has built for two accelerating weeks. If both keep building while ingot keeps drawing, the reading that molten metal is becoming intermediate product downstream will not take is reinforced, and the price support implied by the ingot draw should be marked down accordingly. If billet turns to a draw and its processing fees retreat, August’s processing-PMI improvement gains its physical corroboration.
  • ⚑ LME: whether the contango holds $19.00, the direction of the first stock change after 246,725 mt, and whether cash can attack MA30 ($3,229.72) and MA60 ($3,245.79). Three of six averages are reclaimed and MA30 is nearest at $7.72. If the contango narrows again while stocks keep falling, the nearby-tightening case gets a second hearing — but this edition has confirmed it was falsified once already, so it needs two consecutive sessions of confirmation rather than one. Watch the SHFE-LME ratio at 7.4239 for direction.
  • ⚑ Sanctions and the strait: whether the new US package touches aluminium- or alumina-related entities or bulk shipping, and whether the Gulf of Oman transfers and tanker attacks repeat. The transit count is internally inconsistent this edition (114 transits against “roughly 73 per day”) and no ratio is computed from it. The actionable observation is whether bulk alumina and raw-material shipping into the Gulf suffers a fresh interruption — that is the channel that produced the −44% y/y Gulf July output print, and the reason Qatalum sits at 60% and Alba at 81%.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新交易时段、按构造不变的数据。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” or “carried” are unchanged by construction because no session has traded since the prior edition.