Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Rusal moves to mothball 2.1Mt of alumina capacity, 30.7% of its own output. Guinea caps bauxite exports at 150Mt.俄铝拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能,占其自身产量 30.7%;几内亚将铝土矿出口上限定为 1.5 亿吨。

Monday, August 31, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Monday August 31 (Asia), BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open. ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED SINCE THE AUGUST 28 NIGHT SESSION CLOSED AT 01:00 SATURDAY. This is the THIRD CONSECUTIVE EDITION carrying no new price: every futures price, settlement, open interest and moving average across all four contracts is IDENTICAL to the prior two editions by construction and is RESTATED, not re-derived. There is no blind spot — the August 28 night session was carried in full two editions ago (open 23,935, high 23,990, low 23,845, last 23,925, VWAP 23,919.97, volume 79,417, OI 246,395, −1,514). TWO EVENTS FALL INSIDE THIS EDITION'S WRITING WINDOW AND AFTER ITS DATA CUT-OFF, AND NEITHER IS CARRIED AS A RESULT: the SHFE day session opens at 09:00 Beijing, and China's August manufacturing PMI publishes at 09:30 Beijing. FIRST AND MOST IMPORTANT, ⚑ RUSAL HAS PROPOSED MOTHBALLING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF ITS OWN ALUMINA CAPACITY. Kommersant reports a letter sent to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin proposing to temporarily mothball the Pikalyovo Alumina Refinery (PGLZ), the Bogoslovsk and Ural alumina plants, and the Severouralsk Bauxite Mine (SUBR). In 2025 the three refineries produced 2.1 million mt of alumina, approximately 30.7% of RUSAL's total alumina output. The assets generate approximately $800 million of annual losses and the company estimates $1.8 billion of investment would be required to restore the raw-materials division; RUSAL states it may now be more cost-effective to buy raw material on external markets than to produce it. RUSAL asked the government to consider state support for the affected regions and municipalities and promised to minimise the socioeconomic consequences; the company towns named are Krasnoturyinsk, Severouralsk, Kamensk-Uralsky and Pikalyovo, and the 2009 Pikalyovo closure was the episode that drew Vladimir Putin's personal intervention after residents blockaded a federal highway. Company context: 2025 revenue $14.81 billion (+22.6%) with a net loss of $455 million; H1 2026 net profit $419 million against a loss of $87 million a year earlier. ⊘ THIS IS A PROPOSAL IN A LETTER, NOT AN EXECUTED CUT. No timeline is given, no government response is recorded, and this brief does not treat it as a supply reduction that has happened. ⊘ AND THE TRANSMISSION TO THE CHINESE BOARD IS INDIRECT: these are Russian tonnes serving RUSAL's own Russian and European smelters, not Chinese refinery capacity, and a RUSAL that mothballs and buys instead becomes an ADDITIONAL BUYER on the seaborne alumina market rather than a withdrawn seller — which is a demand-side impulse on the international price and only a sentiment impulse on AO2610 (interpretation). SECOND, ⚑ GUINEA'S EXPORT CONTROL HAS A QUANTIFIED TARGET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS BRIEF: approximately 150 million mt per year, against 183 million mt in 2025 and the near-200-million-mt trajectory previously carried for 2026 — a managed reduction of roughly 25% from the projected baseline, which one caliber converts into a potential 25-million-tonne bauxite deficit for China in 2026. Guinea is cited here at approximately 80% of China's imported bauxite, against the 'more than 70% of Guinean shipments go to China' figure this brief carried previously; the two are DIFFERENT RATIOS measured in different directions and are NOT the same statistic. Bauxite had fallen nearly 50% from its early-2025 peak to a four-year low of $32–38/mt before the curbs were announced; the current caliber remains FOB $38–42 and CIF $70–74, unchanged week-on-week. THIRD, ⚑ CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL PROFITS, NEW AND DIRECTLY RELEVANT: NBS published January–July 2026 profits of 4.58 trillion yuan, +17.6% year-on-year, with July alone +11.2%; revenue 80.92 trillion yuan (+6.5%), operating costs 68.79 trillion yuan (+5.9%), and a profit margin of 5.66%, the highest for the period since 2023. By segment: mining +34.9% (666.05 billion yuan), manufacturing +18.8% (3.44 trillion yuan), and utilities — power, heat, gas and water — DOWN 5.8% (478.42 billion yuan). By industry: electronic equipment +110%, ⚑ NON-FERROUS METAL SMELTING AND ROLLING +91.8%, raw materials +55.2%, chemicals +56.6%, coal mining +50.4%, high-tech manufacturing +50.1%. FOURTH, ⚑ THE H1 COMPANY REPORTS CORROBORATE IT IN CASH: Yunnan Aluminium H1 2026 revenue 34.981 billion yuan (+20.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders 7.684 billion yuan (+177.61%), attributed explicitly to higher aluminium selling prices; Chalco H1 2026 revenue 125.413 billion yuan (+7.74%) and net profit 11.871 billion yuan (+67.91%). Dingsheng New Materials plans an A-share issue raising up to 1.216 billion yuan for 50,000 mt/yr of battery aluminium foil capacity, related technical upgrades across three projects, and working capital. FIFTH, ⊘ CHINA'S AUGUST MANUFACTURING PMI IS NOT CONFIRMED IN THIS EDITION. It publishes at 09:30 Beijing on August 31 against a Reuters poll consensus of 49.6 from 17 economists, with July at 49.2 and June at 50.3; the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June. At time of writing the NBS release page, TradingEconomics and Xinhua all still carry July's 49.2 as the latest value. ⊘ ONE CALENDAR CALIBER SHOWS AN AUGUST ACTUAL OF 49.5 against a 49.6 forecast; it is single-source, uncorroborated by NBS or any wire, its accompanying row fields are internally garbled, and it is listed here as UNCONFIRMED and must NOT be read as the print. ⊘ A SEPARATE CALENDAR CALIBER CARRIES JULY AT 48.6 with a 'previous' of 50.1, which is inconsistent with the NBS series (49.2 from 50.3) this brief uses; it is listed, NOT reconciled and NOT used. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI publishes September 1 and is expected at 51.0 from July's 50.9 — note the two series have diverged by roughly 1.7 points and are not substitutes. Q2 GDP was 4.3%, below the lower bound of the 4.5–5% annual target. SIXTH, ⚑ THE FED PICTURE GAINS TWO NON-FUTURES CALIBERS AND THEY ARE LOWER: Kalshi prices a 25bp September hike at 48% and Polymarket at 49%, against the CME strip's 55.7%, 57.5% and 'nearly 60%' calibers already carried, with pre-speech hold odds of approximately 70%. ⚑ THE DECEMBER CALIBER IS PARTIALLY RESTORED: the probability of a hike by December is reported as remaining ABOVE 70%, which is materially where the 72.7% carried at August 27 sat — meaning the post-Warsh repricing moved SEPTEMBER far more than it moved the year-end. ⊘ THE OCTOBER STRIP REMAINS NOT RETRIEVABLE for a THIRD consecutive edition. SEVENTH, ⊘ THE DOLLAR GAINS A FOURTH CALIBER: 99.5, described as extending the rebound from a three-month low of 98.8 set on August 21, against the 99.64 and 99.677 already carried. All three sit above 99 and all three agree in direction; they are listed and NOT reconciled. ⚑ THE TREASURY CURVE IS INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED on a second caliber for August 28: 1-year 4.13%, 2-year 4.36%, 5-year 4.49%, 10-year 4.72%, 30-year 5.21% — within 1.2bp of the 4.348% two-year carried and identical on the ten- and thirty-year. EIGHTH, ⊘ BRENT GAINS A FOURTH CALIBER TOO: $89.44, −$2.72 and −3.0% on the session, against the $89.31 (−0.43%), the $89.45 settled and the $88.29 originally carried, plus a separate 'around $88 on Friday' description. Four numbers for one session; listed, NOT reconciled. ⚑ THE MARKET'S FRAMING OF IRAN HAS CHANGED AND THAT IS THE USEFUL PART: traders have reclassified the confrontation from a physical-supply threat to an economic and sanctions contest, with improving Hormuz flows and the proposed Iran–Oman corridor cutting the perceived risk premium — Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to approximately 15–16 million barrels per day against a pre-conflict 22–24 million and a March low of 5–6 million. That reframing is why Brent fell 5.3% on the week INTO an escalating sanctions headline. NINTH, ⚑ LONDON IS NOW VERIFIED ACROSS EIGHT CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS WITH ZERO REVISIONS, two more than the prior edition: Aug 28 $3,222.00 / $3,241.00 / 246,725; Aug 27 $3,212.50 / $3,216.00 / 246,825; Aug 26 $3,227.50 / $3,239.00 / 246,825; Aug 25 $3,188.00 / $3,206.50 / 246,825; Aug 24 $3,215.50 / $3,235.00 / 246,925; Aug 21 $3,227.00 / $3,244.00 / 246,925; ⚑ NEWLY CONFIRMED THIS EDITION: Aug 20 $3,182.00 / $3,183.00 / 246,925 and Aug 19 $3,191.50 / $3,212.00 / 246,925. Westmetall's most recent row remains August 28, which is independent confirmation that no session has traded. TENTH, RESTATED WITHOUT CHANGE BECAUSE NO SESSION HAS TRADED. SHFE, August 28 daily file: AL2610 open 23,850, high 24,025, low 23,840, close 23,920, settlement 23,930, previous settlement 23,835; +100 (+0.42%) close-over-close, +85 (+0.36%) on the previous settlement; volume 152,178 (−18.7%), open interest 247,909 (+248); complex open interest 597,807 (+3,337). Week: open 23,800, high 24,075, low 23,695, close 23,920, +210 (+0.89%); weekly volume 885,239; weekly open interest −19,529. AO2610 open 2,614, high 2,651, low 2,605, close 2,648, settlement 2,629; +34 (+1.30%); open interest 228,594 (−52,356). AD2610 close 23,215 (−20, −0.09%). MOVING AVERAGES, this brief's own caliber, ⚑ UNCHANGED BY CONSTRUCTION FOR A THIRD EDITION: SHFE aluminium MA5 23,804.00, MA10 23,799.00, MA20 23,889.25, MA30 23,692.67, MA40 23,552.12, MA60 23,581.33 — the close of 23,920 is ABOVE ALL SIX, by 116.00, 121.00, 30.75, 227.33, 367.88 and 338.67 respectively. Twenty-session close percentile 46.8%; sixty-session 74.1%; retracement of the August 3-to-August 12 advance 57.4%. Alumina MA5 2,653.20, MA10 2,667.30, MA20 2,676.45, MA30 2,687.90, MA40 2,695.95, MA60 2,750.60 — the close of 2,648 is BELOW ALL SIX by 5.20, 19.30, 28.45, 39.90, 47.95 and 102.60; twenty-session percentile 30.1%, sixty-session 10.5%. Cast alloy MA5 23,131.00, MA10 23,091.50, MA20 23,269.00, MA30 23,195.33, MA40 23,132.50, MA60 23,094.75 — five of six held. LME MA5 $3,213.10, MA10 $3,215.70, MA20 $3,249.62, MA30 $3,229.72, MA40 $3,209.09, MA60 $3,245.79 — cash is above three and below three. SHFE-to-LME ratio 7.4239. Spot, August 28: Shanghai spot 23,900 (−20) for a basis of −20; Changjiang 23,920 (flat); Zhongyuan 23,920 (flat); Chalco East 23,900 (−20), Chalco South 24,110 (−40), Chalco Southwest 23,940 (−30), Chalco Central 23,790 (−40); Nanhai 24,390 (−40); Nanchu 24,110 (−50). Nanhai−Shanghai 490, Nanchu−Shanghai 210, Chalco South−East 210. SMM A00 23,920 (+50) at August 27 with a premium of −10. Inventory: SMM social 852,000 mt (August 27, −23,000 w/w, seventh consecutive draw); ⊘ a rival caliber at 821,000 mt (−14,000); ⚑ a third caliber corroborating the level rather than conflicting with it puts mainstream-consumption-area ingot at 860,000 mt, −15,000 w/w against the prior Thursday and −26,000 against the prior Monday, with a separate description of the end-August level as approximately 850,000 mt and July destocking of more than 170,000 mt from an early-July phase high of 1,130,000 mt; SHFE weekly warehouse 391,498 mt (August 24–28, −12,299 w/w against −18,300 prior); SHFE warrants 245,510 mt (−28,691 w/w); bonded 116,000 mt (−1,000); billet 143,000 mt (a five-year high for the period); cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second consecutive and accelerating build); LME 246,725 mt (−100); LME aluminium ALLOY 1,500 mt unchanged; alumina SHFE weekly warehouse 323,736 mt (−38,827). Alumina references: SMM index 2,676 (August 27); Chalco regional listings Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660; cost calibers 2,718 and 2,826.21; alumina-to-aluminium ratio 11.07%. Downstream operating rates, week to August 27: extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). August aluminium processing PMI 48.7% against July's 42.2%. Japan MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10); ⚑ NEW CONTEXT ON THE QUARTERLY SERIES: Q1 2026 settled at $195/mt (+126.7% q/q) and Q2 2026 at $350–353/mt (+79.5–81% q/q) against a Q4 2025 settlement of $86/mt; the Q4 2026 negotiation is NOT retrievable. Ex-China supply restated: Qatalum ~60% of nameplate (~390 kt/yr of 648 kt/yr); Alba Lines 1–3 down, 19% (~311 kt/yr); Alunorte 50% on gas, with Norsk Hydro carrying two declared force majeures; EGA Al Taweelah 315 of 1,262 cells restarted (18%→25%), full production targeted Q1 2027, with the refinery ramping since July 10 and full capability expected by end-2026; Rio Tinto Yarwun −40% from October (−1.2 mtpa); Alcoa 2026 alumina guidance cut 200–300 kt to 9.5–9.6 mt; China smelter operating rate cited at 98.4%; China installed alumina capacity above 110 million mt with H1 output still rising on new additions. ELEVENTH, THE CALENDAR: ⚑ China's August manufacturing PMI TODAY at 09:30 Beijing (consensus 49.6, July 49.2); RatingDog manufacturing PMI September 1 (expected 51.0, July 50.9); ⚑ US August non-farm payrolls Friday September 4 at a consensus of roughly 90,000; Canada's steel and aluminium counter-tariffs rise from 25% to 50% on September 8 across more than 300 metals products with aluminium bars named; the September FOMC is September 16.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THIRD CONSECUTIVE EDITION WITH NO NEW PRICE — AND WESTMETALL PROVES IT Every price, settlement, open interest and moving average is restated from August 28 unchanged by construction. Westmetall's most recent row is still August 28, which is independent confirmation that no session has traded
⚑ RUSAL PROPOSES MOTHBALLING 2.1 MILLION mt OF ALUMINA — 30.7% OF ITS OWN OUTPUT A letter to Prime Minister Mishustin covering the Pikalyovo (PGLZ), Bogoslovsk and Ural refineries plus the Severouralsk bauxite mine (SUBR). The largest single alumina supply item this brief has carried
⚑ THE ASSETS LOSE $800 MILLION A YEAR AND WOULD NEED $1.8 BILLION TO RESTORE RUSAL states plainly that buying raw material on external markets may now be more cost-effective than producing it. That is a producer declaring its own refineries uneconomic
⊘ BUT IT IS A PROPOSAL IN A LETTER, NOT AN EXECUTED CUT No timeline is given and no government response is recorded. This brief does NOT treat it as a supply reduction that has happened
⊘ AND THE TRANSMISSION TO AO2610 IS INDIRECT AND PARTLY THE WRONG WAY These are Russian tonnes feeding RUSAL's own smelters, not Chinese refinery capacity. A RUSAL that mothballs and BUYS becomes an additional seaborne buyer — a demand impulse abroad, a sentiment impulse at home (interpretation)
The politics are not trivial: Pikalyovo is the plant whose 2009 closure drew Putin's personal intervention Company towns named are Krasnoturyinsk, Severouralsk, Kamensk-Uralsky and Pikalyovo. RUSAL has asked the state to support the affected regions
⚑ GUINEA'S EXPORT CAP HAS A NUMBER FOR THE FIRST TIME: ~150 MILLION mt A YEAR Against 183 million mt in 2025 and the ~200 million trajectory carried for 2026 — a managed cut near 25%, which one caliber converts into a 25-million-tonne bauxite deficit for China in 2026
⊘ Two Guinea ratios are circulating and they are NOT the same statistic 'Guinea supplies ~80% of China's imported bauxite' measures China's import mix; 'more than 70% of Guinean shipments go to China' measures Guinea's export mix. Both are carried; neither is derived from the other
⚑ CHINA JAN–JULY INDUSTRIAL PROFITS +17.6% TO 4.58 TRILLION YUAN, JULY ALONE +11.2% Revenue 80.92 trn (+6.5%), costs 68.79 trn (+5.9%), margin 5.66% — the highest for the period since 2023. Mining +34.9%, manufacturing +18.8%, utilities −5.8%
⚑ NON-FERROUS METAL SMELTING AND ROLLING PROFITS ROSE 91.8% Second only to electronic equipment at +110%, ahead of chemicals +56.6%, raw materials +55.2%, coal mining +50.4% and high-tech manufacturing +50.1%
⚑ AND THE H1 REPORTS SAY IT IN CASH: YUNNAN ALUMINIUM NET PROFIT +177.61% 7.684 billion yuan on revenue of 34.981 billion (+20.3%), attributed explicitly to higher aluminium selling prices. Chalco net profit 11.871 billion (+67.91%) on revenue of 125.413 billion (+7.74%)
⚑ A 91.8% SMELTER PROFIT SITTING ON AN ALUMINA BOARD BELOW BOTH COST CALIBERS That is the entire chain margin resting in one link. It is the precise condition under which the raw material tries to take it back — and RUSAL's letter is the first sign of the raw material refusing to absorb it (interpretation)
⊘ CHINA'S AUGUST MANUFACTURING PMI IS NOT CONFIRMED IN THIS EDITION It publishes 09:30 Beijing, inside the writing window and after the data cut-off. NBS, TradingEconomics and Xinhua all still carry July's 49.2 at time of writing
⊘ One calendar caliber shows an August actual of 49.5 — single-source and UNCORROBORATED Against a Reuters-poll consensus of 49.6 and July's 49.2. Its accompanying row fields are internally garbled. Listed as unconfirmed; it must NOT be read as the print
⊘ A second calendar caliber carries JULY at 48.6 with a 'previous' of 50.1 Inconsistent with the NBS series this brief uses (49.2 from 50.3). Listed, NOT reconciled, NOT used. Two calendars, two errors, in opposite directions
⚑ TWO PREDICTION MARKETS PRICE SEPTEMBER BELOW THE FUTURES STRIP: KALSHI 48%, POLYMARKET 49% Against CME's 55.7%, 57.5% and 'nearly 60%'. A coin flip in one venue and a lean in another, on the same meeting
⚑ THE DECEMBER CALIBER IS BACK AND IT BARELY MOVED: STILL 'ABOVE 70%' Against the 72.7% carried at August 27, pre-speech. Warsh repriced SEPTEMBER far more than he repriced the year-end — and this brief established the dollar tracks the year-end
⚑ WHICH IS WHY THE DOLLAR WENT TO 99.5–99.68 AND NOT TO 101 The front end moved and the terminal did not. ⊘ A fourth dollar caliber prints 99.5, extending the rebound from a three-month low of 98.8 on August 21, against 99.64 and 99.677
⚑ The Treasury curve is independently confirmed on a second caliber August 28: 1y 4.13%, 2y 4.36%, 5y 4.49%, 10y 4.72%, 30y 5.21% — within 1.2bp of the 4.348% two-year carried and identical on the ten- and thirty-year
⚑ THE IRAN TRADE HAS BEEN RECLASSIFIED FROM SUPPLY THREAT TO SANCTIONS CONTEST Goldman puts Persian Gulf oil exports back at ~15–16 mb/d against a pre-conflict 22–24 mb/d and a March low of 5–6 mb/d. That reframing is why Brent fell 5.3% on the week INTO an escalating sanctions headline
⊘ Brent now has a FOURTH caliber for one session: $89.44 (−3.0%) Against $89.31 (−0.43%), $89.45 settled, the $88.29 originally carried and a separate 'around $88 Friday'. Four numbers, one session, listed and NOT reconciled
⚑ WESTMETALL NOW CONFIRMS EIGHT CONSECUTIVE LONDON SESSIONS, ZERO REVISIONS Two more than yesterday. Newly confirmed: Aug 20 $3,182.00 / $3,183.00 / 246,925 and Aug 19 $3,191.50 / $3,212.00 / 246,925. Aug 20 is the low of the run and its $1.00 contango the flattest of it
AL2610 restated at 23,920 — all six averages still behind it, MA20 still the pivot Above MA5 (23,804.00) by 116.00, MA10 (23,799.00) by 121.00, MA20 (23,889.25) by 30.75, MA30 by 227.33, MA40 by 367.88, MA60 by 338.67. Percentiles 46.8% and 74.1%
AO2610 restated at 2,648 — below all six, for a fifth session MA5 is 5.20 above at 2,653.20. Still 70 and 178.21 below the two cost calibers. Chalco's five regional listings (2,660–2,785) all sit above the board. This is the contract RUSAL's letter argues with
LME cash restated at $3,222.00 — three of six averages, contango $19.00, ratio 7.4239 Above MA5, MA10 and MA40; below MA20 ($3,249.62), MA30 ($3,229.72) and MA60 ($3,245.79). Stocks 246,725 mt, the low of the run
⚑ A THIRD INGOT CALIBER CORROBORATES THE LEVEL RATHER THAN FIGHTING IT Mainstream-consumption-area ingot 860,000 mt, −15,000 w/w on Thursday and −26,000 on Monday, with end-August described as ~850,000 mt and July destocking of >170,000 mt from an early-July high of 1,130,000 mt
Inventory restated: social 852,000 mt (7th draw), SHFE weekly 391,498 mt (−12,299) The exchange draw SLOWED from −18,300. Warrants −28,691 to 245,510. Bonded 116,000 (−1,000). ⊘ Billet 143,000 (a five-year high) and cast alloy 28,100 (+2,500) both still BUILDING
⚑ NEW CONTEXT ON JAPAN: the quarterly premium went $86 → $195 → $350–353 in three quarters Q4 2025 $86/mt, Q1 2026 $195 (+126.7% q/q), Q2 2026 $350–353 (+79.5–81% q/q). MJP spot is now $270 (−$10) — well below the Q2 settlement. The Q4 2026 negotiation is NOT retrievable
Dingsheng New Materials plans a 1.216 billion yuan A-share issue for battery aluminium foil 50,000 mt/yr of new capacity plus technical upgrades across three projects and working capital. New downstream capacity, not new smelting capacity
⚑ US AUGUST PAYROLLS LAND FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, AT ROUGHLY 90K With a 4.1% jobless rate a soft print buys little dovish relief while a firm one confirms the hawkish repricing outright. Canada's counter-tariffs hit September 8; FOMC September 16
⚑ METHOD: eighteen SHFE averages and six LME averages reproduce the prior TWO editions EXACTLY No session has traded since August 28. Every average is restated by construction, and Westmetall's table now confirms eight consecutive London sessions without a revision

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 8月31日(周一)上午,时点在 09:00 沪铝日盘开盘之前。
  • ⚑ 自 8月28日夜盘于周六 01:00 收市以来无任何交易时段。本期为连续第三篇不含新价格的简报:四个品种的全部期货价格、结算价、持仓量与全部均线,均按构造与前两期完全相同,系「转载」而非「重算」。
  • ⚑ 本期无观测盲区。 8月28日夜盘已在两期前完整载入(开 23,935,高 23,990,低 23,845,末价 23,925,均价 23,919.97,成交 79,417 手,持仓 246,395 手、−1,514)。
  • ⊘ 两个事件落在本期写作窗口之内、数据截止之后,因此均未作为结果载入:09:00 沪铝日盘开盘,09:30 中国 8 月制造业 PMI 发布。
  • ⚑ 本期的增量在氧化铝一栏,且是本简报有史以来单期最大的一次变化。

⚑ 沪铝:数据转载,均线按构造不变(第三期)

  • AL2610(主力):开 23,850,高 24,025,低 23,840,收 23,920,结算 23,930,前结算 23,835;收盘对收盘 +100(+0.42%),较前结算 +85(+0.36%);成交 152,178 手(−18.7%),持仓 247,909 手(+248);品种合计持仓 597,807 手(+3,337)。
  • 周度:开 23,800,高 24,075,低 23,695,收 23,920,周涨 +210(+0.89%);周成交 885,239 手,周持仓 −19,529 手。
  • ⚑ 沪铝均线(按构造不变):MA5 23,804.00、MA10 23,799.00、MA20 23,889.25、MA30 23,692.67、MA40 23,552.12、MA60 23,581.33。收盘 23,920 高于全部六条,分别高出 116.00、121.00、30.75、227.33、367.88、338.67 元。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位 46.8%,60 日分位 74.1%;对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例 57.4%。
  • ⚑ 位置判断(此为解读):收盘处于 20 日区间(23,595–24,290)中位偏上、60 日区间高位区。MA20 仅高出 30.75 元,为六条中最贴近的一条,也是今日日盘首先要检验的一环。

⚑ 氧化铝与铸造铝合金:转载

  • AO2610:开 2,614,高 2,651,低 2,605,收 2,648,结算 2,629;+34(+1.30%);持仓 228,594 手(−52,356)。均线 MA5 2,653.20、MA10 2,667.30、MA20 2,676.45、MA30 2,687.90、MA40 2,695.95、MA60 2,750.60——收盘低于全部六条,分别低 5.20、19.30、28.45、39.90、47.95、102.60。分位 30.1% 与 10.5%。
  • 夜盘:开 2,656,高 2,700,低 2,649,末价 2,688,均价 2,685.21,成交 174,123 手,持仓 229,401 手(+807)。末价 2,688 高于 MA30 仅 0.10。
  • AD2610 收 23,215(−20,−0.09%),守住六条中的五条,仅 MA20(23,269.00)高出 54.00。AD−AL 日盘价差 705,夜盘 585。

⚑ 伦铝:核实范围由六个交易日扩大至八个,零修订

  • ⚑ 8月28日:现货 3,222.00 美元(+9.50,+0.30%),三个月 3,241.00 美元(+25.00,+0.78%),contango 19.00 美元,库存 246,725 吨(−100)。与前两期完全一致。
  • ⚑ 本期新增核实两个交易日:8月20日 3,182.00 / 3,183.00 / 246,925(本轮现货低点,且 1.00 美元的 contango 现确认为本轮最平);8月19日 3,191.50 / 3,212.00 / 246,925。连同此前六日,八个交易日零修订。
  • ⚑ Westmetall 表格最新一行仍为 8月28日——这是「无新交易时段」的独立证据,而非本简报的自述。
  • 均线:MA5 3,213.10、MA10 3,215.70、MA20 3,249.62、MA30 3,229.72、MA40 3,209.09、MA60 3,245.79。现货高于 MA5(8.90)、MA10(6.30)、MA40(12.91);低于 MA20(27.62)、MA30(7.72)、MA60(23.79)。六守其三。沪伦比价 7.4239。

解读

  • 技术面结论与前两期一字不变,因为没有任何新价格可供改变:六条均线全部在价格之下,但 MA20 只差 30.75 元。这是「收复」,不是「站稳」。
  • ⚑ 但核实范围的扩大改变了曲线叙事的一件事:8月20日的 1.00 美元 contango 现已确认为本轮最平的一天,而 8月28日已回到 19.00 美元。 也就是说,近端收紧的整段叙事在八个已核实交易日内完成了「收紧—证伪」的完整循环(此为解读)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

现货转载(8月28日)

  • 上海现货 23,900(−20),基差 −20;长江 23,920(持平);中原 23,920(持平);中铝华东 23,900(−20)、华南 24,110(−40)、西南 23,940(−30)、华中 23,790(−40);南海 24,390(−40);广东南储 24,110(−50)。
  • 价差:南海−上海 490,南储−上海 210,中铝华南−华东 210——三者连续第二个交易日收窄。
  • SMM A00(8月27日)23,920(+50),升贴水 −10。

⚑ 本期头条:俄铝拟封存自身 30.7% 的氧化铝产能

  • ⚑ 据《生意人报》,俄铝已致函总理米舒斯京,拟临时封存皮卡列沃氧化铝厂(PGLZ)、博戈斯洛夫斯克氧化铝厂、乌拉尔氧化铝厂,以及北乌拉尔铝土矿(SUBR)。
  • ⚑ 2025 年上述三家氧化铝厂产量合计 210 万吨,约占俄铝氧化铝总产量的 30.7%。
  • ⚑ 上述资产每年为俄铝带来约 8 亿美元亏损;公司估算恢复原料板块需投入 18 亿美元,并明确表示「从外部市场采购原料可能比自产更具成本效益」。
  • 俄铝已请求政府考虑对相关地区与市镇给予支持,并承诺「尽量降低社会经济影响」。涉及企业城镇:克拉斯诺图林斯克、北乌拉尔斯克、卡缅斯克-乌拉尔斯基、皮卡列沃。2009 年皮卡列沃停产曾引发居民封堵联邦公路,普京亲自介入。
  • 公司口径:2025 年营收 148.1 亿美元(+22.6%),净亏损 4.55 亿美元;2026 年上半年净利润 4.19 亿美元,上年同期为亏损 0.87 亿美元。
  • ⊘ 三点限定,必须与消息本身同等醒目:
    • ⊘ 第一,这是信函中的提议,不是已执行的减产。没有时间表,没有政府答复。本简报不将其计入「已发生的供给减量」。
    • ⊘ 第二,传导路径是间接的,且部分方向相反。这些是供应俄铝自有俄欧电解铝厂的俄罗斯吨位,不是中国氧化铝产能;封存后转为外购的俄铝,在海运市场上是「新增买方」而非「退出卖方」——对国际氧化铝价格是需求端脉冲,对 AO2610 是情绪脉冲(此为解读)。
    • ⊘ 第三,中国已建成氧化铝产能超过 1.1 亿吨,上半年产量在新产能投放下仍在上行,国内过剩叙事不会被一封俄方信函取消。

⚑ 新增:几内亚出口上限首次有了数字

  • ⚑ 目标约 1.5 亿吨/年,对照 2025 年 1.83 亿吨与 2026 年约 2 亿吨的运行轨迹——较预期基准约 25% 的管控性削减;一项口径将其折算为中国 2026 年约 2,500 万吨的铝土矿缺口。
  • ⚑ 几内亚供应中国进口铝土矿的约 80%。⊘ 注意:本简报此前所载的「几内亚出口的 70% 以上流向中国」与本条「占中国进口的约 80%」是两个方向不同的比率,不可互推,两条并列载入。
  • 管控措施出台前,铝土矿价格自 2025 年初高点下跌近 50%,至 32–38 美元/吨的四年低位。当前口径仍为 FOB 38–42 美元、CIF 70–74 美元,周环比持平。

再生铝与氧化铝价格:转载

  • ADC12 23,900(周四对周四 −300),对照 A00 23,600(−520),升水 300;A00−破碎生铝 1,150,A00−混合型材 2,360;破碎生铝 19,900–20,700;海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元;马来西亚巴生港 FOB 3,090 美元,泰国林查班 FOB 约 3,070 美元。再生铝开工率 49.1%。
  • SMM 氧化铝指数 2,676(8月27日);中铝五地报价——山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660——全部高于 AO2610 收盘 2,648,幅度 12 至 137 元。两条成本口径 2,718 与 2,826.21 分别高出盘面 70 与 178.21 元。氧化铝/铝价比 11.07%。
  • ⚑ 日本口径新增背景:MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨(−10);季度结算 2025Q4 为 86 美元、2026Q1 为 195 美元(环比 +126.7%)、2026Q2 为 350–353 美元(环比 +79.5%–81%)。⊘ 2026Q4 谈判未取得。

解读

  • ⚑ 本栏的净方向从上期的「偏空」转为「远期偏多、近端仍空」,这是一次结构性变化。 远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本已在五处被削减或封顶:力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年、美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨、Alunorte 因天然气维持 50%、几内亚出口封顶至约 1.5 亿吨,以及现在书面上的俄铝约三分之一精炼产能。
  • ⊘ 但近端没有变:AO2610 仍在六条均线与两条成本线之下,中铝五地报价全部高于盘面。 盘面低于全行业报价的结构,仍与「空头回补式反弹」而非「供需转向」一致(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 一句话把两者接起来:氧化铝的多头论据已经从「现货」搬到了「远期」,而市场只交易前者。

三 · 库存

转载:铝锭去库继续但放慢;铝棒与合金在累;本期新增第三条口径

  • SMM 国内主流消费地铝锭社会库存 852,000 吨(8月27日),周环比 −23,000 吨,连续第七周去库;自 7月23日的 1,006,000 吨累计 −154,000 吨。
  • ⊘ 一条对立口径同日为 821,000 吨(−14,000),来自券商纪要而非 SMM 社库序列。并列载入,不做调和,不做平均。
  • ⚑ 本期新增第三条口径,且是「印证」而非「冲突」:主流消费地铝锭 860,000 吨,较上周四 −15,000 吨、较上周一 −26,000 吨;另有表述称 8 月底水平约 850,000 吨,7 月单月去库超过 170,000 吨,7 月初阶段性高点为 1,130,000 吨。
  • 上期所周度仓单库存(8月24–28日)391,498 吨,周环比 −12,299 吨,前一周为 −18,300 吨——交易所口径去库放慢。注册仓单 245,510 吨,周环比 −28,691 吨。
  • 保税区库存 116,000 吨(8月27日,−1,000)。氧化铝上期所周度库存 323,736 吨(−38,827)。
  • LME 库存 246,725 吨(−100),本轮低点;LME 铝合金库存 1,500 吨,持平。
  • ⊘ 铝棒 143,000 吨(近五年同期最高);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨(+2,500,连续第二周且累库加速)。

解读

  • 库存栏的结论与前两期一致:铝锭在去,铝棒与合金在累,而这个分化比总量更有信息量。
  • ⚑ 第三条口径的价值不在数字本身,而在于它把「周四对周四」与「周一对周一」两个窗口都给了负值(−15,000 与 −26,000)。这降低了「去库只是到货节奏错位」这一解释的权重,但没有消除它(此为解读)。
  • 去库对价格的支撑在减弱而非加强:交易所口径已由 −18,300 放慢至 −12,299 吨。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 联储:两个非期货口径低于期货条,而年末口径几乎没动

  • ⚑ Kalshi 对 9 月加息 25 个基点的定价为 48%,Polymarket 为 49%;对照 CME 口径的 55.7%、57.5% 与「接近 60%」。演讲前维持利率概率约 70%。
  • ⚑ 12 月口径回归,且基本未动:年内加息概率仍在「70% 以上」,与 8月27日所载的 72.7%(演讲前口径)基本一致。
  • ⚑ 关键推论(此为解读):沃什对 9 月的重定价远大于对年末的重定价。本简报此前已确认美元跟踪的是年末口径而非 9 月口径——这就是美元只走到 99.5–99.68 而非 101 的原因。
  • ⊘ 10 月条连续第三期未取得。

⊘ 美元第四条口径,以及利率曲线的独立确认

  • ⊘ 美元指数新增第四条口径 99.5,表述为「延续自 8月21日三个月低点 98.8 的反弹」,对照已载的 99.64 与 99.677。三者同向且均在 99 上方,并列载入,不做调和。
  • ⚑ 美债曲线获第二条口径独立确认(8月28日):1 年 4.13%、2 年 4.36%、5 年 4.49%、10 年 4.72%、30 年 5.21%。与已载的 2 年期 4.348% 相差 1.2 个基点以内,10 年与 30 年完全一致。
  • ⚑ 曲线形态的含义不变:2s30s 由 115 个基点平坦化至 86 个基点,是市场为「可信的通胀目标」付费,而非为滞胀定价。

⚑ 地缘与原油:市场把伊朗从「供应威胁」重新归类为「制裁博弈」

  • ⚑ 高盛估算波斯湾原油出口已回升至约 1,500–1,600 万桶/日,对照战前 2,200–2,400 万桶/日与 3 月低点 500–600 万桶/日。
  • ⚑ 交易者已将局势重新定性为经济与制裁对抗,而非迫在眉睫的实物供应威胁;霍尔木兹通行改善与拟议的伊朗—阿曼走廊压低了风险溢价。
  • ⚑ 这就是布伦特在制裁升级的标题之下、单周仍下跌 5.3% 的原因(此为解读)。对铝而言,这削去一条能源成本尾部风险,也削去多头论据中较响亮的一条。
  • ⊘ 布伦特出现同一交易日的第四条口径:89.44 美元(−2.72,−3.0%),对照 89.31 美元(−0.43%)、结算 89.45 美元、原载 88.29 美元,以及「周五约 88 美元」的表述。四个数字,一个交易日,并列载入,不做调和。

⚑ 中国:1—7 月工业企业利润,以及有色 +91.8%

  • ⚑ 国家统计局:1—7 月规模以上工业企业利润 4.58 万亿元,同比 +17.6%;7 月单月 +11.2%。营业收入 80.92 万亿元(+6.5%),营业成本 68.79 万亿元(+5.9%),营业收入利润率 5.66%,为 2023 年以来同期最高。
  • ⚑ 分门类:采矿业 +34.9%(6,660.5 亿元),制造业 +18.8%(3.44 万亿元),电力热力燃气及水生产供应业 −5.8%(4,784.2 亿元)。
  • ⚑ 分行业:电子设备 +110%,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 +91.8%,化学原料 +56.6%,原材料制造业 +55.2%,煤炭开采 +50.4%,高技术制造业 +50.1%。
  • ⊘ 中国 8 月制造业 PMI 于 09:30 发布,落在本期写作窗口内、数据截止后,本期不予确认。 市场预期 49.6(路透 17 位经济学家调查),7 月 49.2,6 月 50.3;非制造业 7 月 49.0(6 月 50.2)。截至写稿时,国家统计局发布页、TradingEconomics 与新华社口径均仍显示 7 月 49.2。
  • ⊘ 某单一日历口径显示 8 月实际值 49.5(预期 49.6),无任何官方或通讯社交叉验证,且该行其余字段自相矛盾,仅作未确认记录载入,不得当作已公布数值阅读。
  • ⊘ 另一日历口径将 7 月载为 48.6、前值 50.1,与本简报所用国家统计局序列(49.2、前值 50.3)不一致;并列载入,不做调和,不予采用。两个日历,两处错误,方向相反。
  • 民间口径 RatingDog 制造业 PMI 于 9月1日发布,预期 51.0(7 月 50.9)。⊘ 两个序列已相差约 1.7 个点,互不替代。二季度 GDP 增速 4.3%,低于 4.5%–5% 目标区间下限。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 净方向:中性偏空,但比上期温和。 9 月加息定价在期货条上升、在预测市场却只是掷硬币;真正驱动美元的年末口径几乎没动;曲线是「相信」而非「担心」。
  • ⊘ 明确偏空的一条是原油:风险溢价被重新定价掉,能源成本尾部变薄。
  • ⚑ 明确偏多的一条是中国利润数据:有色 +91.8% 说明政策没有理由放松 4,500 万吨产能天花板,而 98.4% 的开工率意味着国内没有可用的供给弹性。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 供给:远期氧化铝账本的第五处削减,而且是最大的一处

  • ⚑ 俄铝:拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能(占自身 30.7%)及 SUBR 铝土矿——提议,非已执行(详见第二节)。
  • 几内亚:出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年,约 25% 的管控性削减。
  • 力拓 Yarwun:自 10 月起减产 40%,合 120 万吨/年。
  • 美铝:2026 年氧化铝产量指引下调 20–30 万吨至 950–960 万吨。
  • Alunorte:因天然气维持 50% 产能;挪威海德鲁已就铝销售宣布两次不可抗力。
  • ⊘ 反向的一条:中国已建成氧化铝产能超过 1.1 亿吨,上半年产量在新增产能投放下仍在上行。北方虽有减产,总量仍向上。

电解铝供给:转载

  • 卡塔尔铝业约为名义产能的 60%(约 39 万吨/年,对照 64.8 万吨/年);Alba 一至三号系列停产,占产能 19%(约 31.1 万吨/年);阿联酋环球铝业 Al Taweelah 已重启 1,262 台电解槽中的 315 台(18%→25%),电解厂目标 2027 年一季度满产,氧化铝厂自 7月10日起爬产、预计 2026 年底具备满产能力。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率被引用为 98.4%——对照 4,500 万吨天花板,基本处于满负荷。价格上行没有国内供给弹性可用,边际吨位只能来自海外重启(此为解读)。

⚑ 需求与利润:一条把两栏接起来的新证据

  • ⚑ 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 1—7 月利润 +91.8%,在主要行业中仅次于电子设备。
  • ⚑ 云铝股份 2026 上半年:营收 349.81 亿元(+20.3%),归母净利润 76.84 亿元(+177.61%),公司明确归因于铝商品销价上升。
  • ⚑ 中国铝业 2026 上半年:营收 1,254.13 亿元(+7.74%),归母净利润 118.71 亿元(+67.91%)。
  • 鼎胜新材拟发行 A 股募资不超过 12.16 亿元,用于 5 万吨/年电池铝箔产能、三个项目的技术改造及补充流动资金。
  • ⚑ 解读:一个盘面跌破两条成本线的氧化铝,顶着一个利润同比 +91.8% 的电解铝——这就是全产业链利润集中在一个环节。这正是原料端要求重新分配的条件,而俄铝的信函是本简报所载第一份「精炼端拒绝继续承担」的硬证据(此为解读)。

需求:月度调查与周度数据仍不互相印证(转载)

  • 8 月铝加工行业综合 PMI 48.7%(7 月 42.2%),仍在收缩区间;⊘ 8 月分项表未取得。
  • 周度开工率(截至 8月27日):型材 50.6%(−0.2 个百分点)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。两升一平一降,不支持「广泛改善」的读法。

解读

  • ⚑ 基本面的多头论据已经上移到产业链上游。 它不再主要关于中国铝锭去库(去库在放慢,且部分可由到货节奏解释),而是关于一个已在五处被削减或封顶的远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本。
  • ⊘ 制约同样真实:信函是提议,吨位不在中国,中国自身氧化铝产能仍在扩张,而眼前的实物铝市场是现货贴水、铝棒库存五年最高、买方不接报价的市场。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

转载:8月28日成交与情绪

  • 华东:上海现货 23,900(−20),基差 −20——本轮首次贴水。持货商出货意愿高于下游接货意愿,成交以刚需为主。
  • 华南:南海 24,390(−40),南储 24,110(−50);南海−上海价差 490,连续第二日收窄。
  • 华中:中铝华中 23,790(−40),为九条现货口径中最低。
  • ⚑ 九条现货口径中无一上涨,而当日盘面 +100;中铝四个地区全部下调。
  • 出货意愿:偏强(供方主动降价出货)。采购意愿:偏弱(下游按需采购、观望为主)。
  • 日本 MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨(−10);⚑ 对照 2026Q2 的季度结算 350–353 美元,现货已明显低于上一次季度定价。

解读

  • 现货栏结论未被周末信息推翻:盘面动了,金属没跟,升水是第一个被放弃的东西。
  • ⚑ 三条独立序列指向同一行为——基差贴水、铝棒五年同期高位、合金连续第二周加速累库:按需采购,拒绝报价。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑ 俄铝拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能(占其自身 30.7%)及 SUBR 铝土矿——本简报所载最大单笔氧化铝供给消息。
  • ⚑ 该资产年亏 8 亿美元、恢复需 18 亿美元,公司称外购可能优于自产——精炼端经济性已被生产者自己否定。
  • ⚑ 几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年,较基准削减约 25%,一项口径折算中国缺口 2,500 万吨。
  • ⚑ 力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 维持 50%,海德鲁两次不可抗力。
  • ⚑ AO2610 收 2,648,低于两条成本口径 70 与 178.21 元;中铝五地报价 2,660–2,785 全部高于盘面。
  • ⚑ 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 1—7 月利润 +91.8%,云铝净利 +177.61%,中铝净利 +67.91%——利润集中于电解铝环节,原料端有极强的要价动机。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板,国内无供给弹性。
  • ⚑ 同一组利润数据也降低了政策放松产能天花板的可能性。
  • ⚑ 铝锭社会库存 852,000 吨,连续第七周去库,自 7月23日累计 −154,000 吨;本期新增第三条口径 860,000 吨,在周四与周一两个窗口均为负值。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,725 吨,本轮新低,已由 Westmetall 官方表格核实。
  • ⚑ AL2610 收盘高于自身全部六条均线;分位 46.8% 与 74.1%;回撤比例 57.4%。
  • ⚑ 卡塔尔铝业仅约 60% 名义产能、Alba −19%、Alunorte 50%——海外供给缺口仍在。
  • ⚑ 8 月铝加工 PMI 48.7%,较 7 月 42.2% 改善 6.5 个百分点,SMM 预计 9 月重回扩张。
  • ⚑ Kalshi 48% 与 Polymarket 49% 低于 CME 的 55.7%/57.5%/接近 60%——加息共识度低于单一口径所显示的水平。
  • ⚑ 12 月口径仍在 70% 以上、基本未动,说明沃什主要重定价的是 9 月而非终点利率,美元上行空间因此受限。
  • ⚑ 2s30s 由 115 个基点平坦化至 86 个基点,是政策可信度定价而非纯紧缩风险,对长久期工业金属并非无条件逆风。
  • ⚑ 美国废铝出口上半年 +21% 至 125 万吨(泰国、印度为最大买家),国际合规废料趋紧,支撑再生铝成本。
  • ⚑ 欧洲上半年电解铝产量 +4.9% 而氧化铝产量 −1.8%,区域供给缺口两端同时扩大;2022 年以来欧洲已损失逾 100 万吨电解产能。
  • ⚑ 几内亚铝土矿 FOB 38–42 美元、CIF 70–74 美元周环比持平,矿端成本刚性未松动。
  • ⚑ 制裁与海峡风险仍在:贝森特「经济版诺曼底登陆日」、新一轮美方制裁、海峡油轮遇袭、雷扎伊威胁彻底切断流量。
  • ⚑ 沃什演讲当日黄金收跌 3.13%(年内最差),而伦铝电子盘三个月仍收涨 18 美元至 3,242——铝对鹰派冲击的非确认更强而非更弱。
  • ⚑ 日本季度升水三个季度由 86 美元升至 350–353 美元,亚洲实物端定价仍在历史高位。
  • ⚑ 上期所仓单周内 −28,691 吨至 245,510 吨,可交割资源持续收缩。
  • ⚑ 保税区库存 116,000 吨(−1,000),外部资源未回流。
  • ⚑ 鼎胜新材新增 5 万吨/年电池铝箔产能,属下游需求侧扩张。
  • ⚑ 上期所氧化铝周度库存 −38,827 吨至 323,736 吨,为近期最大降幅。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘ 俄铝的消息是信函中的提议,非已执行减产:无时间表、无政府答复。
  • ⊘ 且传导方向部分相反:封存后转为外购的俄铝在海运市场是新增买方,对 AO2610 只是情绪脉冲。
  • ⊘ 中国已建成氧化铝产能超过 1.1 亿吨,上半年产量在新产能投放下仍在上行,国内过剩叙事未变。
  • ⊘ AO2610 仍低于自身全部六条均线,20 日与 60 日分位仅 30.1% 与 10.5%。
  • ⊘ 基差 −20:现货贴水盘面,当日九条现货口径无一上涨,中铝四地全部下调。
  • ⊘ 华南三条价差连续第二日收窄,结构性偏紧的说法已降级为「正在消退」。
  • ⊘ 铝棒库存 143,000 吨为近五年同期最高,且加工费在铝价周内下跌约 520 元时全线上调——供方守利润,非买方抢货。
  • ⊘ 铸造铝合金 28,100 吨,连续第二周且累库加速,SMM 指引继续累。
  • ⊘ 上期所周度去库由 −18,300 放慢至 −12,299 吨。
  • ⊘ 8 月铝加工 PMI 仍在 50 下方,仍属收缩;周度开工率两升一平一降,不支持广泛改善;8 月分项表未取得。
  • ⊘ 型材开工率 50.6%,环比 −0.2 个百分点,建筑链条仍在恶化。
  • ⊘ 中国 8 月制造业 PMI 本期未确认,市场预期 49.6 仍在荣枯线下方;二季度 GDP 4.3% 低于目标区间下限。
  • ⊘ 非制造业 PMI 7 月已跌至 49.0(6 月 50.2),建筑与服务同步走弱。
  • ⊘ 电力热力燃气及水生产供应业利润 −5.8%,是全部门类中唯一负增长——电价端对电解铝成本的支撑正在弱化(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 美元突破 99(99.5 / 99.64 / 99.677 三条口径同向),对美元计价金属构成逆风。
  • ⊘ CME 9 月加息口径 55.7%–接近 60%,较演讲前的约 30% 大幅上移。
  • ⊘ 黄金实际收跌 3.13% 而非 0.94%,鹰派冲击的量级远大于此前所载。
  • ⊘ 高盛口径波斯湾出口回升至 1,500–1,600 万桶/日,布伦特单周 −5.3%——能源成本尾部变薄。
  • ⊘ 市场已将伊朗局势重新归类为制裁博弈而非实物供应威胁,地缘溢价被系统性压低。
  • ⊘ 加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,覆盖 300 余项金属产品,铝棒被点名。
  • ⊘ EGA Al Taweelah 恢复度由 18% 升至 25%,海外缺口在边际回填;其氧化铝厂预计 2026 年底具备满产能力。
  • ⊘ MJP 现货升水 270 美元,显著低于 2026Q2 的 350–353 美元季度结算,亚洲实物溢价已在回落。
  • ⊘ 伦铝 contango 在一个交易日内由 3.50 美元完全反转至 19.00 美元,近端收紧论据已被证伪并经官方表格核实。
  • ⊘ 铝锭去库仍可由到货减少解释,而铝棒与合金同时累库,指向铝水转为下游不接的中间品。

八 · 一句话观点

本期为连续第三篇不含新价格的简报,全部均线按构造不变、并由 Westmetall 连续八个交易日零修订与最新一行仍为 8月28日的事实独立佐证,因此本期的价值全部在于氧化铝一栏发生了本简报有史以来单期最大的变化——俄铝已致函总理米舒斯京,拟临时封存皮卡列沃、博戈斯洛夫斯克与乌拉尔三家氧化铝厂及北乌拉尔铝土矿,涉及 2025 年氧化铝产量 210 万吨、占其自身总产量的 30.7%,资产年亏 8 亿美元、恢复需投入 18 亿美元,且公司明确表示外购原料可能比自产更划算;将其与已载的力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年、美铝指引下调 20–30 万吨、Alunorte 因气维持 50%、以及几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨(较基准约 −25%、一项口径折算中国缺口 2,500 万吨)并列,远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本已在五处被削减或封顶;但三点限定必须与消息同等醒目——这是信函中的提议而非已执行减产,没有时间表也没有政府答复;传导路径间接且部分方向相反,因为这些是供应俄铝自有俄欧电解铝厂的俄罗斯吨位而非中国产能,封存后转为外购的俄铝在海运市场上是新增买方而非退出卖方;中国已建成氧化铝产能超过 1.1 亿吨且上半年产量仍在新产能投放下上行;与此同时,中国 1—7 月工业企业利润 +17.6% 至 4.58 万亿元、7 月单月 +11.2%、利润率 5.66% 为 2023 年以来同期最高,其中有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 +91.8%,云铝上半年归母净利 76.84 亿元(+177.61%)、中国铝业 118.71 亿元(+67.91%),而 AO2610 仍收在 2,648、低于自身全部六条均线并低于 2,718 与 2,826.21 两条成本口径、中铝五地 2,660–2,785 报价全部高于盘面——一个利润 +91.8% 的电解铝顶着一个跌破成本的氧化铝,就是全产业链利润集中于一个环节,而这正是原料端要求重新分配的条件,俄铝的信函是本简报所载第一份精炼端拒绝继续承担的硬证据;宏观端 Kalshi 48% 与 Polymarket 49% 低于 CME 的 55.7%/57.5%/接近 60%,而真正驱动美元的 12 月口径仍在 70% 以上、与演讲前的 72.7% 基本持平,这解释了美元只到 99.5–99.68 而非 101,曲线 2s30s 由 115 平坦化至 86 个基点仍是为可信通胀目标付费;原油方向明确偏空,因为高盛口径下波斯湾出口已回升至 1,500–1,600 万桶/日、市场已把伊朗从实物供应威胁重新归类为制裁博弈,布伦特因此在制裁升级的标题下单周仍跌 5.3%;而眼前的实物铝市场没有变——盘面守住六条均线但 MA20 仅 30.75 元,现货贴水 20 元且九条口径无一上涨,铝锭连续第七周去库但交易所口径已由 −18,300 放慢至 −12,299 吨,铝棒 143,000 吨为五年同期最高、铸造铝合金 28,100 吨连续第二周加速累库;中国 8 月制造业 PMI 于 09:30 发布,落在本期写作窗口内、数据截止后,本期不予确认,某单一日历口径的 49.5 未获任何官方或通讯社交叉验证,不得当作已公布数值阅读,美国 8 月非农于 9月4日发布、预期约 9 万人——因此本期的结论是:多头论据已从中国现货上移至海外原料端并且真实,空头证据仍集中在中国实物端并且同样真实,而市场目前只交易后者。

九 · 今日(8月31日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 09:30 发布的中国 8 月制造业 PMI(预期 49.6,7 月 49.2),以及与铝加工 PMI 48.7% 的对读。这是本周最重要的单一变量,且本期未予确认——请以国家统计局原始发布为准,不要采用任何未经交叉验证的日历口径(包括本期以 ⊘ 标注的 49.5)。若全国口径同样改善并接近或站上 50,需求论据自 7 月以来第一次有两条腿;若再度不及,8 月铝加工的 48.7% 就只是一个仍在收缩的经济体内部的行业反弹。同时关注非制造业 PMI(7 月 49.0)与 9月1日的 RatingDog 口径(预期 51.0)。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 AO2610 对俄铝消息的反应,以及反应能持续几个交易日。判别标准:若盘面因该消息上行但停留在 2,676.45(MA20)之下,则市场只把它当作情绪脉冲,与本简报「传导间接」的读法一致;若能连续两个交易日站上 MA20 并向 2,718 的成本口径逼近,则市场正在为远期账本重新定价。需同时观察中铝五地报价(2,660–2,785)是否上调——报价先动才是产业确认,盘面先动只是资金确认(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ MA20(23,889.25)能否守住——它仍是整个技术结构中最脆弱的一环,收盘 23,920 仅高出 30.75 元,而 MA5(23,804.00)与 MA10(23,799.00)在下方构成一条仅 5 元宽的密集带。下行序列:23,889.25(MA20)→ 23,845(夜盘低点,沃什后)→ 23,840(日盘低点)→ 23,804.00 / 23,799.00 → 23,692.67(MA30)。上行序列:23,990(夜盘高点,沃什前)→ 24,000(SMM 波动区间上沿)→ 24,025(日盘高点)→ 24,075(周内高点)。今日开盘参考 8月28日夜盘末价 23,925。
  • ⚑ 基差能否修复,以及华南三条价差是否连续第三个交易日收窄。8月28日由 +100 到 −20 的坍塌是本轮首次贴水。若现货继续落后、基差进一步转负,「盘面独自上涨」将由单日事件升级为趋势;若基差回到平水或以上,8月28日可能只是节前时点扰动。
  • ⚑ 铝棒与铸造铝合金的下一次数据,其重要性现已高于铝锭。铝棒已处五年同期高位,合金连续两周加速累库。若两者继续累而铝锭继续去,「铝水转为下游不接的中间品」这一读法将被强化,铝锭去库所隐含的价格支撑应相应下调;若铝棒转去库且加工费回落,8 月铝加工 PMI 的改善才获得实物印证。
  • ⚑ 伦铝:contango 能否守住 19.00 美元、库存在 246,725 吨之后的首次变动方向,以及现货能否上攻 MA30(3,229.72)与 MA60(3,245.79)。六守其三,MA30 最近仅差 7.72 美元。本期已将核实范围扩大到八个交易日并确认 8月20日的 1.00 美元 contango 为本轮最平,因此近端收紧论据若要重新成立,需要连续两个交易日的确认而非一个。同时关注沪伦比价 7.4239 的方向。
  • ⚑ 10 月联邦基金条能否取得——这是本简报连续第三期的缺口。12 月已回到「70% 以上」,而 9 月的五条口径由 48%(Kalshi)横跨至「接近 60%」(CME),分歧显著。同时观察美元能否守住 99(三条口径 99.5 / 99.64 / 99.677)、2s30s 是否自 86 个基点继续平坦化,以及 9月4日非农(预期约 9 万人)前的仓位变化。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

  • Written the morning of Monday, August 31, BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open.
  • ⚑ NO SESSION HAS TRADED since the August 28 night session closed at 01:00 Saturday. This is the THIRD CONSECUTIVE EDITION carrying no new price: every futures price, settlement, open interest and moving average across all four contracts is IDENTICAL to the prior two editions by construction and is RESTATED, not re-derived.
  • ⚑ There is no blind spot. The August 28 night session was carried in full two editions ago (open 23,935, high 23,990, low 23,845, last 23,925, VWAP 23,919.97, volume 79,417, open interest 246,395, −1,514).
  • ⊘ TWO EVENTS FALL INSIDE THIS EDITION’S WRITING WINDOW AND AFTER ITS DATA CUT-OFF, AND NEITHER IS CARRIED AS A RESULT: the SHFE day session opens at 09:00 Beijing, and China’s August manufacturing PMI publishes at 09:30 Beijing.
  • ⚑ What this edition adds lands in the alumina column, and it is the largest single change that column has seen in this brief.

⚑ SHFE: restated, averages unchanged by construction for a third edition

  • AL2610: open 23,850, high 24,025, low 23,840, close 23,920, settlement 23,930, previous settlement 23,835; +100 (+0.42%) close-over-close and +85 (+0.36%) on the previous settlement; volume 152,178 (−18.7%), open interest 247,909 (+248); complex open interest 597,807 (+3,337).
  • On the week: open 23,800, high 24,075, low 23,695, close 23,920, +210 (+0.89%); weekly volume 885,239; weekly open interest −19,529.
  • ⚑ Moving averages, unchanged by construction: MA5 23,804.00, MA10 23,799.00, MA20 23,889.25, MA30 23,692.67, MA40 23,552.12, MA60 23,581.33. The close of 23,920 is ABOVE ALL SIX, by 116.00, 121.00, 30.75, 227.33, 367.88 and 338.67 respectively.
  • ⚑ Twenty-session close percentile 46.8%; sixty-session 74.1%; retracement of the August 3–12 advance 57.4%.
  • ⚑ WHERE THIS SITS IN THE RANGE (interpretation): the close is mid-to-upper in the twenty-session band of 23,595–24,290 and in the upper portion of the sixty-session band. MA20 at 30.75 away is by far the tightest of the six and is the first thing today’s day session tests — this is a reclaim, not yet a hold.

⚑ Alumina and cast alloy: restated

  • AO2610: open 2,614, high 2,651, low 2,605, close 2,648, settlement 2,629; +34 (+1.30%); open interest 228,594 (−52,356). MA5 2,653.20, MA10 2,667.30, MA20 2,676.45, MA30 2,687.90, MA40 2,695.95, MA60 2,750.60 — the close is BELOW ALL SIX by 5.20, 19.30, 28.45, 39.90, 47.95 and 102.60. Percentiles 30.1% and 10.5%.
  • Night session: open 2,656, high 2,700, low 2,649, last 2,688, VWAP 2,685.21, volume 174,123, open interest 229,401 (+807). The last print of 2,688 is 0.10 above MA30.
  • AD2610 closed 23,215 (−20, −0.09%), holding five of six averages with only MA20 (23,269.00) above by 54.00. The AD−AL discount is 705 on the day close and 585 on the night prints.

⚑ LME: verification extended from six sessions to eight, still with zero revisions

  • ⚑ August 28: cash $3,222.00 (+$9.50, +0.30%), three-month $3,241.00 (+$25.00, +0.78%), contango $19.00, stocks 246,725 mt (−100). Identical to the prior two editions.
  • ⚑ TWO SESSIONS NEWLY CONFIRMED THIS EDITION: Aug 20 $3,182.00 / $3,183.00 / 246,925 — the low of the run, and a $1.00 contango now confirmed as the FLATTEST of the run — and Aug 19 $3,191.50 / $3,212.00 / 246,925. Together with the six already confirmed, that is eight consecutive sessions with zero revisions.
  • ⚑ Westmetall’s most recent row is still August 28. That is independent confirmation that no session has traded, rather than this brief’s own assertion.
  • Moving averages: MA5 $3,213.10, MA10 $3,215.70, MA20 $3,249.62, MA30 $3,229.72, MA40 $3,209.09, MA60 $3,245.79. Cash is above MA5 by $8.90, MA10 by $6.30 and MA40 by $12.91; below MA20 by $27.62, MA30 by $7.72 and MA60 by $23.79. Three of six. SHFE-LME ratio 7.4239.

Interpretation

  • The technical position is word-for-word unchanged because no price exists to change it: all six averages are behind the price, but MA20 is only 30.75 away.
  • ⚑ What the extended verification DOES change is the curve narrative. The $1.00 contango on August 20 is now confirmed as the flattest point of the run, and August 28 is back at $19.00. The entire nearby-tightening story therefore completed a full tighten-and-falsify cycle inside eight verified sessions (interpretation).

Spot, restated (August 28)

  • Shanghai spot 23,900 (−20) for a basis of −20; Changjiang 23,920 (flat); Zhongyuan 23,920 (flat); Chalco East 23,900 (−20), South 24,110 (−40), Southwest 23,940 (−30), Central 23,790 (−40); Nanhai 24,390 (−40); Guangdong Nanchu 24,110 (−50).
  • Spreads: Nanhai−Shanghai 490, Nanchu−Shanghai 210, Chalco South−East 210 — all three narrowed for a second consecutive session.
  • SMM A00 (August 27) 23,920 (+50), premium/discount −10.

⚑ THE HEADLINE ITEM: RUSAL PROPOSES MOTHBALLING 30.7% OF ITS OWN ALUMINA CAPACITY

  • ⚑ Kommersant reports a letter sent to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin proposing to temporarily mothball the Pikalyovo Alumina Refinery (PGLZ), the Bogoslovsk alumina plant, the Ural alumina plant, and the Severouralsk Bauxite Mine (SUBR).
  • ⚑ In 2025 the three refineries produced 2.1 million mt of alumina — approximately 30.7% of RUSAL’s total alumina output.
  • ⚑ The assets generate approximately $800 million of annual losses. RUSAL estimates $1.8 billion of investment would be needed to restore the raw-materials division, and states that buying raw material on external markets may now be more cost-effective than producing it.
  • RUSAL has asked the government to consider state support for affected regions and municipalities and promised to minimise the socioeconomic consequences. The company towns named are Krasnoturyinsk, Severouralsk, Kamensk-Uralsky and Pikalyovo. The 2009 Pikalyovo closure is the episode that drew Vladimir Putin’s personal intervention after residents blockaded a federal highway.
  • Company context: 2025 revenue $14.81 billion (+22.6%) with a net loss of $455 million; H1 2026 net profit $419 million against a loss of $87 million a year earlier.
  • ⊘ THREE QUALIFICATIONS, WHICH BELONG AS PROMINENTLY AS THE HEADLINE:
    • ⊘ First, this is a PROPOSAL IN A LETTER, not an executed cut. No timeline, no recorded government response. This brief does NOT book it as supply that has gone.
    • ⊘ Second — and this is where a careless reading goes wrong — THE TRANSMISSION TO AO2610 IS INDIRECT AND PARTLY RUNS THE WRONG WAY. These are Russian tonnes feeding RUSAL’s own Russian and European smelters, not Chinese refinery capacity. A RUSAL that stops making alumina and starts buying it becomes an ADDITIONAL BUYER on the seaborne market — a demand impulse on the international price, not a supply withdrawal from the Chinese one (interpretation).
    • ⊘ Third, China’s installed alumina capacity is above 110 million mt and H1 output was still rising on new additions. The domestic surplus narrative is not cancelled by a Russian letter.

⚑ NEW: Guinea’s export cap has a number for the first time

  • ⚑ The target is approximately 150 million mt per year, against 183 million mt in 2025 and the near-200-million-mt trajectory carried for 2026 — a managed reduction of roughly 25% from the projected baseline, which one caliber converts into a potential 25-million-tonne bauxite deficit for China in 2026.
  • ⚑ Guinea is cited at approximately 80% of China’s imported bauxite. ⊘ NOTE: this brief previously carried ‘more than 70% of Guinean shipments go to China’. The two are DIFFERENT RATIOS measured in opposite directions — one is China’s import mix, the other is Guinea’s export mix — and neither is derived from the other. Both are listed.
  • Bauxite had fallen nearly 50% from its early-2025 peak to a four-year low of $32–38/mt before the curbs were announced. The current caliber remains FOB $38–42 and CIF $70–74, unchanged week-on-week.

Secondary and alumina prices: restated

  • ADC12 23,900 (−300 Thu/Thu) against A00 23,600 (−520) for a premium of 300; A00 minus shredded 1,150, A00 minus mixed extrusion 2,360; shredded 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Malaysia FOB Port Klang $3,090, Thailand FOB Laem Chabang ~$3,070. Secondary operating rate 49.1%.
  • SMM alumina index 2,676 (August 27); Chalco’s five regional listings — Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660 — all sit ABOVE the AO2610 close of 2,648, by 12 to 137. The two cost calibers of 2,718 and 2,826.21 remain 70 and 178.21 above the board. Alumina-to-aluminium ratio 11.07%.
  • ⚑ NEW CONTEXT ON JAPAN: MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10), against quarterly settlements of $86/mt for Q4 2025, $195/mt for Q1 2026 (+126.7% q/q) and $350–353/mt for Q2 2026 (+79.5–81% q/q). ⊘ The Q4 2026 negotiation is NOT retrievable.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net direction of this column changes from outright bearish to FORWARD-BULLISH AND NEARBY-BEARISH, and that is a structural change rather than a marginal one. The forward alumina and bauxite book has now been cut or capped in five separate places: Rio Tinto’s Yarwun (−1.2 mtpa from October), Alcoa (guidance −200–300 kt to 9.5–9.6 mt), Alunorte (50% on gas), Guinea (cap at ~150 million mt), and now, on paper, roughly a third of RUSAL’s refining.
  • ⊘ The nearby has not changed at all: AO2610 remains below all six of its own averages and below both cost calibers, with all five Chalco regional listings above the board. A board trading beneath the industry’s own offers is still consistent with a short-covering bounce rather than a supply-demand turn (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The single sentence that joins them: the bullish argument in alumina has moved from the spot to the forward, and the market only trades the former.

3 · Inventory

Restated: ingot destocking continues but slows; billet and alloy build; a third caliber added

  • SMM domestic mainstream-consumption-area aluminium ingot social inventory 852,000 mt (August 27), −23,000 mt week-on-week, a SEVENTH consecutive draw; −154,000 mt since July 23’s 1,006,000 mt.
  • ⊘ A rival caliber puts the same date at 821,000 mt (−14,000 w/w), carried from a broker note and NOT SMM’s social series. Listed, NOT reconciled, NOT averaged.
  • ⚑ A THIRD CALIBER ADDED THIS EDITION, AND IT CORROBORATES RATHER THAN CONFLICTS: mainstream-consumption-area ingot at 860,000 mt, −15,000 mt week-on-week against the prior Thursday and −26,000 mt against the prior Monday, with the end-August level separately described as approximately 850,000 mt and July destocking of more than 170,000 mt from an early-July phase high of 1,130,000 mt.
  • SHFE weekly warehouse stocks (August 24–28) 391,498 mt, −12,299 mt week-on-week against −18,300 mt the prior week — the exchange draw SLOWED. Registered warrants 245,510 mt, −28,691 mt on the week.
  • Bonded inventory 116,000 mt (August 27, −1,000 w/w). Alumina SHFE weekly warehouse stocks 323,736 mt (−38,827 w/w).
  • LME stocks 246,725 mt (−100), the low of the run; LME aluminium ALLOY stocks 1,500 mt, unchanged.
  • ⊘ Billet 143,000 mt (a five-year high for the period); cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second consecutive and accelerating build).

Interpretation

  • The split is unchanged and still carries more information than the totals: ingot is drawing while billet and alloy build.
  • ⚑ The value of the third caliber is not the number but the WINDOWS: it gives a negative on BOTH a Thursday-to-Thursday basis (−15,000) and a Monday-to-Monday basis (−26,000). That lowers the weight on the explanation that the draw is purely an arrivals-timing artefact, without removing it (interpretation).
  • The support from destocking is weakening, not strengthening: the exchange caliber slowed from −18,300 to −12,299 mt.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The Fed: two non-futures calibers price September LOWER, and the year-end caliber barely moved

  • ⚑ Kalshi prices a 25bp September hike at 48% and Polymarket at 49%, against the CME strip’s 55.7%, 57.5% and ‘nearly 60%’. Pre-speech odds of a September HOLD were approximately 70%.
  • ⚑ THE DECEMBER CALIBER IS BACK AND IT BARELY MOVED: the probability of a hike by December is reported as remaining ABOVE 70%, materially where the 72.7% carried at August 27 — a PRE-speech print — already sat.
  • ⚑ THE INFERENCE THAT MATTERS (interpretation): Warsh repriced SEPTEMBER far more than he repriced the year-end. This brief has already established that the dollar tracks the year-end caliber rather than September. That is the explanation for a dollar at 99.5–99.68 rather than 101 — the front end moved and the terminal did not.
  • ⊘ The October strip remains NOT RETRIEVABLE for a THIRD consecutive edition.

⊘ A fourth dollar caliber, and independent confirmation of the curve

  • ⊘ The dollar index gains a FOURTH caliber at 99.5, described as extending the rebound from a three-month low of 98.8 set on August 21, against the 99.64 and 99.677 already carried. All three agree in direction and all three sit above 99; listed, NOT reconciled.
  • ⚑ The Treasury curve is independently confirmed on a second caliber for August 28: 1-year 4.13%, 2-year 4.36%, 5-year 4.49%, 10-year 4.72%, 30-year 5.21% — within 1.2bp of the 4.348% two-year carried and identical on the ten- and thirty-year.
  • ⚑ The shape reading is unchanged: 2s30s flattened from 115bp to 86bp, which is a market paying for a credible inflation target rather than pricing stagflation.

⚑ Geopolitics and crude: the market has reclassified Iran from supply threat to sanctions contest

  • ⚑ Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to approximately 15–16 million barrels per day, against a pre-conflict 22–24 million and a March low of 5–6 million.
  • ⚑ Traders have reframed the confrontation as an economic and sanctions contest rather than an imminent physical-supply threat, with improving Hormuz flows and the proposed Iran–Oman corridor cutting the perceived risk premium.
  • ⚑ That reframing is why Brent fell 5.3% on the week INTO an escalating sanctions headline rather than rallying on it (interpretation). For aluminium it removes an energy-cost tail and, with it, one of the louder arguments in the bull case.
  • ⊘ Brent now carries a FOURTH caliber for a single session: $89.44 (−$2.72, −3.0%), against $89.31 (−0.43%), $89.45 settled, the $88.29 originally carried, and a separate ‘around $88 on Friday’ description. Four numbers, one session; listed and NOT reconciled.

⚑ China: January–July industrial profits, and non-ferrous at +91.8%

  • ⚑ NBS: January–July industrial profits 4.58 trillion yuan, +17.6% year-on-year, with July alone +11.2%. Revenue 80.92 trillion yuan (+6.5%), operating costs 68.79 trillion yuan (+5.9%), profit margin 5.66% — the highest for the period since 2023.
  • ⚑ By segment: mining +34.9% (666.05 billion yuan), manufacturing +18.8% (3.44 trillion yuan), and utilities — power, heat, gas and water — DOWN 5.8% (478.42 billion yuan).
  • ⚑ By industry: electronic equipment +110%, NON-FERROUS METAL SMELTING AND ROLLING +91.8%, chemicals +56.6%, raw materials +55.2%, coal mining +50.4%, high-tech manufacturing +50.1%.
  • ⊘ CHINA’S AUGUST MANUFACTURING PMI PUBLISHES AT 09:30 BEIJING — inside this edition’s writing window and after its data cut-off — AND IS NOT CONFIRMED HERE. Consensus is 49.6 (Reuters poll of 17 economists), July 49.2, June 50.3; non-manufacturing was 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June. At time of writing the NBS release page, TradingEconomics and Xinhua all still carry July’s 49.2 as the latest value.
  • ⊘ ONE CALENDAR CALIBER SHOWS AN AUGUST ACTUAL OF 49.5 against a 49.6 forecast. It is single-source, uncorroborated by NBS or any wire, and its accompanying row fields are internally garbled. It is listed as UNCONFIRMED and must NOT be read as the print.
  • ⊘ A SEPARATE CALENDAR CALIBER carries JULY at 48.6 with a ‘previous’ of 50.1, inconsistent with the NBS series this brief uses (49.2 from 50.3). Listed, NOT reconciled, NOT used. Two calendars, two errors, in opposite directions.
  • The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI publishes September 1 and is expected at 51.0 from July’s 50.9. ⊘ The two series have diverged by roughly 1.7 points and are NOT substitutes. Q2 GDP was 4.3%, below the lower bound of the 4.5–5% annual target.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ Net: mildly bearish, and LESS bearish than the prior edition. September hike pricing rose on the futures strip but is only a coin flip in prediction markets; the year-end caliber that actually drives the dollar barely moved; the curve says the market believes the Fed rather than fearing it.
  • ⊘ The unambiguously bearish item is crude: the risk premium has been priced out and the energy-cost tail is thinner.
  • ⚑ The unambiguously bullish item is China’s profit data: a non-ferrous sector earning 91.8% more than a year ago at a 98.4% operating rate gives Beijing no reason to relieve the 45-million-tonne cap and no domestic supply elasticity to offer a higher price.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Supply: the fifth cut to the forward alumina book, and the largest

  • ⚑ RUSAL: proposes mothballing 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity (30.7% of its own output) plus the SUBR bauxite mine — a PROPOSAL, not an executed cut (see section 2).
  • Guinea: export cap target of approximately 150 million mt/yr, a managed cut near 25%.
  • Rio Tinto Yarwun: −40% from October, equal to 1.2 mtpa.
  • Alcoa: 2026 alumina guidance cut 200–300 kt to 9.5–9.6 mt.
  • Alunorte: 50% of capacity on gas availability; Norsk Hydro carries two declared force majeures on aluminium sales.
  • ⊘ THE ITEM THAT RUNS THE OTHER WAY: China’s installed alumina capacity is above 110 million mt and H1 output continued rising on new additions. Northern China saw cuts; the national total still went up.

Primary aluminium supply: restated

  • Qatalum at approximately 60% of nameplate (~390 kt/yr against 648 kt/yr); Alba’s Lines 1–3 down, covering 19% of capacity (~311 kt/yr); EGA has restarted 315 of 1,262 Al Taweelah cells (18%→25%) with full smelter production targeted Q1 2027, and its alumina refinery has been ramping since July 10 with full capability expected by end-2026.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate is cited at 98.4% — essentially maxed out against the 45-million-tonne cap. There is no domestic supply response available to a higher price; the marginal tonne has to come from restarts abroad (interpretation).

⚑ Demand and profits: the new evidence that joins two columns

  • ⚑ Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling profits rose 91.8% in January–July, second only to electronic equipment among major industries.
  • ⚑ Yunnan Aluminium H1 2026: revenue 34.981 billion yuan (+20.3%), net profit attributable to shareholders 7.684 billion yuan (+177.61%), attributed explicitly by the company to higher aluminium selling prices.
  • ⚑ Chalco H1 2026: revenue 125.413 billion yuan (+7.74%), net profit 11.871 billion yuan (+67.91%).
  • Dingsheng New Materials plans an A-share issue raising up to 1.216 billion yuan for 50,000 mt/yr of battery aluminium foil capacity, technical upgrades across three projects, and working capital.
  • ⚑ INTERPRETATION: an alumina board below both of its cost calibers sitting underneath a smelter earning 91.8% more than a year ago is the entire chain margin resting in one link. That is precisely the condition under which the raw material stops absorbing it — and RUSAL’s letter is the first hard evidence in this brief of a refiner refusing to keep absorbing it.

Demand: the monthly survey and the weekly data still do not corroborate each other (restated)

  • August aluminium processing PMI 48.7% (July 42.2%), still in contraction; ⊘ the August sub-sector table was not retrievable.
  • Weekly operating rates to August 27: extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). Two up, one flat, one down — not a broad improvement.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The bullish argument in the fundamentals has migrated UP THE CHAIN. It is no longer primarily about Chinese ingot destocking, which is slowing and partly arrivals-driven; it is about a forward alumina and bauxite book cut or capped in five separate places while the alumina board sits below cost and the smelter that consumes it earns 91.8% more than a year ago.
  • ⊘ The restraint is equally real: the letter is a proposal, the tonnes are not Chinese, China’s own alumina capacity is still expanding, and the physical aluminium market in front of us has spot at a discount, billet inventory at a five-year high, and a buyer who will not lift the offer.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

Restated: August 28 transactions and sentiment

  • East China: Shanghai spot 23,900 (−20) for a basis of −20 — the first discount of this sequence. Holders’ willingness to ship exceeded downstream willingness to take, and transactions were rigid-demand only.
  • South China: Nanhai 24,390 (−40), Nanchu 24,110 (−50); Nanhai−Shanghai 490, narrowing a second session.
  • Central China: Chalco Central 23,790 (−40), the lowest of the nine spot calibers.
  • ⚑ NOT ONE of the nine spot calibers rose on a day the board added 100, and Chalco cut all four of its regional quotations.
  • Shipment willingness: firm (suppliers cutting to move metal). Purchasing sentiment: weak (buy-as-needed, wait-and-see).
  • Japan’s MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10); ⚑ against the Q2 2026 quarterly settlement of $350–353/mt, the spot premium now sits materially BELOW the last quarterly price.

Interpretation

  • The spot column’s conclusion is not overturned by anything in the weekend’s information: the board moved and the metal did not follow, so the premium was the first thing surrendered.
  • ⚑ Three independent series describe the same behaviour — a negative basis, billet at a five-year high for the period, and cast alloy building for a second accelerating week: buy as needed, refuse the offer.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑ RUSAL proposes mothballing 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity — 30.7% of its own output — plus the SUBR bauxite mine. The largest single alumina supply item this brief has carried.
  • ⚑ Those assets lose $800 million a year and would need $1.8 billion to restore, and RUSAL says buying may now beat making — a producer declaring its own refining uneconomic.
  • ⚑ Guinea’s export cap targets ~150 million mt/yr, a ~25% managed cut, with one caliber converting it into a 25-million-tonne Chinese deficit.
  • ⚑ Rio Tinto Yarwun −1.2 mtpa from October; Alcoa guidance −200–300 kt; Alunorte at 50% with two Hydro force majeures.
  • ⚑ AO2610 at 2,648 sits 70 and 178.21 below the two cost calibers, and all five Chalco regional listings (2,660–2,785) are above the board.
  • ⚑ Non-ferrous smelting and rolling profits +91.8% in Jan–July; Yunnan Aluminium net +177.61%; Chalco net +67.91% — the chain margin is concentrated at the smelter, which gives the raw material a powerful incentive to reprice.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate at 98.4% against the 45-million-tonne cap leaves no domestic supply elasticity.
  • ⚑ The same profit data reduces any policy case for relieving the capacity cap.
  • ⚑ Ingot social inventory 852,000 mt, a seventh consecutive draw, −154,000 mt since July 23 — corroborated this edition by a third caliber at 860,000 mt negative on BOTH the Thursday and Monday windows.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,725 mt, a new low of the run, verified from Westmetall’s official table.
  • ⚑ AL2610 closes above all six of its own moving averages; percentiles 46.8% and 74.1%; retracement 57.4%.
  • ⚑ Qatalum at ~60% of nameplate, Alba −19%, Alunorte 50% — the ex-China hole is still open.
  • ⚑ August aluminium processing PMI 48.7% against July’s 42.2%, a 6.5-point gain, with SMM expecting September to return to expansion.
  • ⚑ Kalshi 48% and Polymarket 49% sit below CME’s 55.7%/57.5%/’nearly 60%’ — hike conviction is lower than a single caliber suggests.
  • ⚑ The December caliber remains above 70% and essentially unchanged, meaning Warsh repriced September rather than the terminal — which caps the dollar’s upside.
  • ⚑ The 2s30s flattening from 115bp to 86bp is policy-credibility pricing, not unambiguous tightening risk for a long-dated industrial metal.
  • ⚑ US aluminium scrap exports +21% in H1 to 1.25 million mt toward Thailand and India, tightening compliant scrap internationally and supporting secondary cost.
  • ⚑ Europe H1 aluminium output +4.9% against alumina −1.8%; Europe has lost more than 1 million tonnes of smelting capacity since 2022.
  • ⚑ Guinean bauxite FOB $38–42 and CIF $70–74 unchanged week-on-week — ore-side cost rigidity has not loosened.
  • ⚑ Sanctions and strait risk persist: Bessent’s ‘economic D-Day’, a new US sanctions wave, a tanker attacked in the strait, Rezaei threatening to halt flows entirely.
  • ⚑ Aluminium closed HIGHER after Warsh on the same afternoon gold had its worst session of the year (−3.13%): London’s electronic 3M +$18 at $3,242.
  • ⚑ Japan’s quarterly premium went $86 → $195 → $350–353 in three quarters; Asian physical pricing remains historically elevated.
  • ⚑ SHFE registered warrants fell 28,691 mt on the week to 245,510 mt — deliverable material keeps shrinking.
  • ⚑ Bonded inventory 116,000 mt (−1,000) — no return flow of external material.
  • ⚑ Dingsheng adds 50,000 mt/yr of battery aluminium foil capacity — downstream demand-side expansion.
  • ⚑ Alumina SHFE weekly warehouse stocks fell 38,827 mt to 323,736 mt, the largest recent draw.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘ The RUSAL item is a proposal in a letter, not an executed cut: no timeline, no government response.
  • ⊘ And its transmission partly runs the wrong way: a mothballed RUSAL becomes an additional seaborne BUYER, making the AO2610 effect a sentiment impulse only.
  • ⊘ China’s installed alumina capacity is above 110 million mt and H1 output was still rising on new additions — the domestic surplus narrative is unchanged.
  • ⊘ AO2610 remains below all six of its own averages, with twenty- and sixty-session percentiles of only 30.1% and 10.5%.
  • ⊘ The basis is −20: spot at a discount, with none of nine spot calibers rising on a day the board added 100 and Chalco cutting all four regions.
  • ⊘ All three South China spreads narrowed a second session; the structural-tightness claim is actively fading.
  • ⊘ Billet inventory 143,000 mt is the highest for the period in five years, and its processing fees rose in every region and gauge during a week A00 fell ~520 — supplier margin defence, not buyer competition.
  • ⊘ Cast alloy 28,100 mt is a second consecutive and accelerating build, with SMM guiding to more.
  • ⊘ The SHFE weekly draw slowed from −18,300 to −12,299 mt.
  • ⊘ The August processing PMI is still below 50; the weekly operating rates (two up, one flat, extrusion −0.2pp) do not corroborate a broad improvement; the August sub-sector table was not retrievable.
  • ⊘ Extrusion operating rate 50.6% and FALLING — the construction chain is still deteriorating.
  • ⊘ China’s August manufacturing PMI is unconfirmed in this edition and the 49.6 consensus is still below 50; Q2 GDP at 4.3% was below the target band.
  • ⊘ The non-manufacturing PMI had already fallen to 49.0 in July from 50.2 — services and construction weakening together.
  • ⊘ Utility profits (power, heat, gas, water) fell 5.8%, the only negative segment — power-side cost support for aluminium is weakening (interpretation).
  • ⊘ The dollar broke above 99 on all three calibers (99.5 / 99.64 / 99.677).
  • ⊘ CME September hike pricing at 55.7%–’nearly 60%’ is far above the ~30% of a day earlier.
  • ⊘ Gold actually CLOSED down 3.13%, not 0.94% — the hawkish shock was three times larger than first reported.
  • ⊘ Goldman puts Persian Gulf exports back at 15–16 mb/d and Brent fell 5.3% on the week — the energy-cost tail is thinner.
  • ⊘ The market has reclassified Iran from a physical-supply threat to a sanctions contest, systematically compressing the geopolitical premium.
  • ⊘ Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariffs rise from 25% to 50% on September 8 across 300+ metals products, with aluminium bars named.
  • ⊘ EGA’s Al Taweelah recovery moved from 18% to 25% and its refinery is expected at full capability by end-2026 — the ex-China hole is refilling at the margin.
  • ⊘ MJP spot at $270 sits well below the Q2 2026 settlement of $350–353 — Asian physical premiums are already retreating.
  • ⊘ The LME contango reversed its entire collapse in one step, $3.50 → $19.00, falsifying the nearby-tightening case — now confirmed across eight verified sessions.
  • ⊘ The ingot draw remains consistent with reduced arrivals rather than consumption, and billet plus alloy building simultaneously points to molten metal becoming intermediate product downstream will not take.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

This is the third consecutive edition without a new price — every average is unchanged by construction and Westmetall independently proves it, its most recent row still August 28 and eight consecutive sessions now confirmed without a single revision — so the edition’s entire value lies in the fact that the alumina column has just received the largest single change this brief has ever carried: RUSAL has written to Prime Minister Mishustin proposing to mothball the Pikalyovo, Bogoslovsk and Ural alumina refineries plus the Severouralsk bauxite mine, covering 2.1 million mt of 2025 alumina output or approximately 30.7% of the company’s own total, on assets that lose $800 million a year and would need $1.8 billion to restore, with RUSAL stating outright that buying raw material externally may now be cheaper than producing it; set beside Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cutting 1.2 mtpa from October, Alcoa’s guidance down 200–300 kt to 9.5–9.6 mt, Alunorte still at 50% on gas with two Hydro force majeures, and Guinea now capping bauxite exports at roughly 150 million mt against 183 million in 2025 — a ~25% managed cut from a country supplying about 80% of China’s imported bauxite, which one caliber converts into a 25-million-tonne Chinese deficit — the forward alumina and bauxite book has been cut or capped in five separate places; but three qualifications belong as prominently as the headline, because this is a proposal in a letter rather than an executed cut with no timeline and no government answer, because the transmission is indirect and partly runs the wrong way since these are Russian tonnes feeding RUSAL’s own smelters rather than Chinese refinery capacity and a mothballed RUSAL becomes an additional seaborne BUYER instead of a withdrawn seller, and because China’s installed alumina capacity exceeds 110 million mt with H1 output still rising on new additions; at the same time China’s January–July industrial profits rose 17.6% to 4.58 trillion yuan with July alone +11.2% and a 5.66% margin that is the best for the period since 2023, inside which non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling profits rose 91.8% while Yunnan Aluminium’s H1 net profit rose 177.61% to 7.684 billion yuan and Chalco’s rose 67.91% to 11.871 billion yuan — and AO2610 still closed at 2,648, below all six of its own averages and below both cost calibers of 2,718 and 2,826.21 with all five Chalco listings from 2,660 to 2,785 above the board, so a smelter earning 91.8% more sits directly on top of a raw material trading beneath its own cost, which is the entire chain margin in one link and the exact condition under which the raw material stops absorbing it, RUSAL’s letter being the first hard evidence this brief has carried of a refiner refusing to; on the macro side Kalshi at 48% and Polymarket at 49% price September below CME’s 55.7%, 57.5% and ‘nearly 60%’, while the December caliber that actually drives the dollar remains above 70% and essentially unchanged from the 72.7% carried pre-speech, which explains a dollar at 99.5–99.68 rather than 101 and leaves the 2s30s flattening from 115bp to 86bp reading as payment for a credible inflation target; crude is unambiguously bearish now that Goldman puts Persian Gulf exports back at 15–16 million barrels a day and the market has reclassified Iran from a physical-supply threat to a sanctions contest, which is why Brent fell 5.3% on the week into an escalating sanctions headline; and the physical aluminium market in front of us has not moved at all — the board holds all six averages but MA20 by only 30.75, spot sits at a 20-yuan discount with none of nine calibers rising, ingot has drawn seven straight weeks to 852,000 mt while the exchange draw slowed from −18,300 to −12,299 mt, and billet at a five-year high of 143,000 mt and cast alloy at 28,100 mt are both still building; China’s August manufacturing PMI publishes at 09:30 inside this brief’s writing window and after its data cut-off and is therefore NOT confirmed here, with a single uncorroborated calendar caliber of 49.5 that must not be read as the print, and US payrolls follow on Friday at roughly 90,000 — so the conclusion is that the bullish case has migrated off Chinese spot and up the chain to overseas raw material where it is real and not yet priced, while the bearish evidence remains concentrated in Chinese physical where it is equally real, and the market is currently trading only the latter.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (August 31) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ China’s August manufacturing PMI at 09:30 (consensus 49.6 against July’s 49.2), read across the aluminium processing PMI’s 48.7%. This is the week’s single most important variable and this edition does NOT confirm it — take the figure from the NBS release itself and do not adopt any uncorroborated calendar caliber, including the 49.5 flagged ⊘ here. If the national print improves similarly and approaches or clears 50, the demand argument this brief has been unable to make since July finally has two legs; if it misses again, August’s 48.7% is a sector rebound inside an economy still contracting. Watch the non-manufacturing print alongside it (July 49.0) and the RatingDog caliber on September 1 (expected 51.0), remembering the two series have diverged by roughly 1.7 points.
  • ⚑ How AO2610 reacts to the RUSAL item, and for how many sessions. The discriminating test: if the board rallies on the news but stays BELOW MA20 (2,676.45), the market is treating it as a sentiment impulse, consistent with this brief’s indirect-transmission reading; if it clears MA20 for two consecutive sessions and pushes toward the 2,718 cost caliber, the market is repricing the forward book. Watch whether Chalco’s five regional listings (2,660–2,785) are RAISED — an offer that moves first is industry confirmation, a board that moves first is only positioning confirmation (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Whether MA20 (23,889.25) holds on the aluminium board, because it remains the most fragile element in the technical structure. The close of 23,920 clears it by only 30.75, while MA5 (23,804.00) and MA10 (23,799.00) form a five-yuan-wide dense band beneath. Downside sequence: 23,889.25 (MA20) → 23,845 (the night low, the post-Warsh print) → 23,840 (the day low) → 23,804.00 / 23,799.00 → 23,692.67 (MA30). Upside: 23,990 (the night high, the pre-speech print) → 24,000 (SMM’s band ceiling) → 24,025 (the day high) → 24,075 (the week’s high). Today’s open references the August 28 night session’s last print of 23,925.
  • ⚑ Whether the basis repairs, and whether the three South China spreads narrow for a THIRD consecutive session. The August 28 collapse from +100 to −20 was the first discount of this sequence. If spot keeps lagging and the basis goes further negative, ‘the board moves alone’ upgrades from a single-day event to a trend; if the basis returns to parity or better, August 28 may prove a pre-weekend timing artefact.
  • ⚑ The next billet and cast-alloy prints, which now matter more than the ingot print. Billet is at a five-year high for the period and alloy has built for two accelerating weeks. If both keep building while ingot keeps drawing, the reading that molten metal is becoming intermediate product downstream will not take is reinforced, and the price support implied by the ingot draw should be marked down accordingly. If billet turns to a draw and its processing fees retreat, August’s processing-PMI improvement gains its physical corroboration.
  • ⚑ LME: whether the contango holds $19.00, the direction of the first stock change after 246,725 mt, and whether cash can attack MA30 ($3,229.72) and MA60 ($3,245.79). Three of six averages are reclaimed and MA30 is nearest at $7.72. This edition extended verification to eight sessions and confirmed August 20’s $1.00 contango as the flattest of the run, so the nearby-tightening case now needs two consecutive sessions of confirmation rather than one to be re-entertained. Watch the SHFE-LME ratio at 7.4239 for direction.
  • ⚑ Whether the October fed funds strip becomes retrievable — this brief’s gap for a THIRD consecutive edition. December has returned at ‘above 70%’ and is essentially unchanged from the pre-speech 72.7%, while September now spans 48% (Kalshi) to ‘nearly 60%’ (CME) across five calibers. Watch alongside it whether the dollar holds 99 across all three of its calibers (99.5 / 99.64 / 99.677), whether 2s30s keeps flattening from 86bp, and how positioning shifts into Friday’s payrolls at roughly 90,000.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源、尚未执行的提议或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新交易时段、按构造不变的数据。本期特别提示:中国 8 月制造业 PMI 发布于本文数据截止之后,本文未予确认,请以国家统计局原始发布为准。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, proposals that have not been executed, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” or “carried” are unchanged by construction because no session has traded since the prior edition. Special note for this edition: China’s August manufacturing PMI published after this brief’s data cut-off and is NOT confirmed here — take the figure from the NBS release itself.