SHFE jumps 155 to 24,075, its highest close since August 12, clearing all six averages. London is shut for the bank holiday.沪铝大涨 155 元至 24,075,创 8 月 12 日以来最高收盘并站上全部六条均线;伦敦银行假日休市。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

• Written the morning of Tuesday, September 1, BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open.
• ⚑ The three-edition price drought is over. This edition carries the complete August 31 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards (by SHFE trading-day convention, the August 31 file contains BOTH the Friday-night session and the Monday day session), plus a live quote for the August 31 night session, which belongs to the September 1 trading day and closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning.
• ⊘ THE STRUCTURAL GAP THIS EDITION: THE LME DID NOT TRADE ON AUGUST 31 — the UK Summer Bank Holiday, the last Monday of August. Every London price, stock, curve and average below is RESTATED from August 28, and Shanghai’s advance has no London confirmation whatsoever. Westmetall’s latest row is still August 28, which is the independent proof rather than this brief’s own assertion.
• ⚑ Method: all moving averages are computed exactly from the exchange’s published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series for 104 trading days (April 1 – August 31). Before any August 31 value was computed, the series was used to re-derive August 28 and reproduced all twelve of the prior edition’s published aluminium and alumina averages to the yuan.
• ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and its regional transaction premia for August 31 (the A00 page’s intraday premium band is carried as a conversion only); the Shanghai Huatong caliber for August 31; SMM’s alumina spot assessments and Chalco’s five regional alumina listings for August 31 (carried at August 27); SHFE daily warrant tonnages; and the October fed funds strip, absent for a fourth consecutive edition.

⚑ SHFE: the highest close since August 12, clearing all six averages at once

• AL2610 (main contract): open 23,935, high 24,090, low 23,845, close 24,075, settlement 23,960, prior settlement 23,930. Close-to-close +155 (+0.65%); against prior settlement +145 (+0.61%). Volume 195,036 lots (+28.2%); OI 248,527 (+618); complex OI 600,684 (+2,877).
• ⚑ Moving averages (exact): MA5 23,866.00, MA10 23,803.00, MA20 23,910.75, MA30 23,728.17, MA40 23,580.38, MA60 23,575.33. The close is above ALL SIX by 209.00, 272.00, 164.25, 346.83, 494.62 and 499.67 respectively.
• ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +62.00, MA10 +4.00, MA20 +21.50, MA30 +35.50, MA40 +28.26 — and MA60 FELL 6.00 while the price rose.
• ⚑ The 20-session close percentile rose from 46.8% to 69.1% (range 23,595–24,290); the 60-session from 74.1% to 87.9% (22,445 on July 1 to 24,300 on June 15). The retracement of the August 3–12 advance improved from 57.4% to 33.3% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645).
• ⚑ The prior watchlist’s primary question is answered in the strongest possible form: MA20, held by only 30.75 on Friday, was not merely defended — the clearance widened FIVE-FOLD to 164.25 on an average that itself rose 21.50.

Interpretation: three internal facts say the candle is thinner than the headline

• ⊘ First, the settlement rose only 30. The close of 24,075 sits 115 above the settlement of 23,960, which means most of the day’s gain arrived late in the session and has not yet entered the margin caliber (interpretation).
• ⊘ Second, open interest rose 618 lots. Against a 248,527-lot book that is negligible. This advance was not paid for with new money.
• ⊘ Third, the night session opened 10 above the close, printed 24,095 — the highest since August 17 — then handed back 80 to finish at 24,015 with open interest down a further 3,236. Price up on flat-to-falling open interest is covering, not buying (interpretation).

⚑ The August 31 night session (trading day September 1)

• AL2610: open 24,085 (10 ABOVE the day close), high 24,095, low 23,980, last 24,015, VWAP 24,028.82, volume 53,350, OI 245,291 (−3,236).
• AO2610: open 2,690, high 2,699, low 2,676, last 2,678, VWAP 2,684.96, volume 60,540, OI 148,127 (−6,043). The last print is 9 BELOW the day close.
• AD2610: open 23,355, high 23,450, low 23,245, last 23,305, VWAP 23,340.55, volume 2,445, OI 7,350.
• ⊘ These are live session quotes, not settlements, and will be restated from the exchange file tomorrow.

⚑ Alumina: four averages reclaimed in one session — on a record open-interest collapse

• AO2610: open 2,656, high 2,700, low 2,649, close 2,687, settlement 2,684, prior settlement 2,629; +39 (+1.47%). Volume 339,366; OI 154,170 (−74,424); complex OI −98,421.
• ⚑ Moving averages: MA5 2,652.60, MA10 2,666.30, MA20 2,678.90, MA30 2,686.33, MA40 2,694.78, MA60 2,748.87. The close is above the first four (by 34.40, 20.70, 8.10 and 0.67) and below MA40 by 7.78 and MA60 by 61.87 — ending five consecutive sessions beneath all six.
• ⚑ But open interest fell 74,424 lots in one session, a NEW record for any board in this brief, beating the −52,356 set only two sessions earlier. Two record liquidations in three sessions, both into rising prices.
• Percentiles rose from 30.1%/10.5% to 64.6%/22.5%. Still 31 and 139.21 below the two cost calibers of 2,718 and 2,826.21.
• The curve remains in full monotonic contango: 2609 2,661 < 2610 2,687 < 2611 2,698 < 2612 2,714 < 2701 2,729 < 2702 2,750 … < 2708 2,862.
• AD2610 closed 23,395 (+180, +0.78%), settlement 23,315, OI 7,210 (−3,098), above ALL SIX of its averages (MA5 23,211.00, MA10 23,108.00, MA20 23,271.50, MA30 23,212.67, MA40 23,147.00, MA60 23,097.42). The AD−AL discount narrowed 705 → 680 on the day and re-widened to 710 overnight.

⊘ LME: closed for the holiday; all data restated; verification extended to twelve sessions

• ⊘ August 31 was the UK Summer Bank Holiday and the LME did not open. Restated from August 28: cash $3,222.00, 3M $3,241.00, contango $19.00, stocks 246,725 mt.
• Averages (restated): MA5 $3,213.10, MA10 $3,215.70, MA20 $3,249.62, MA30 $3,229.72, MA40 $3,209.09, MA60 $3,245.79. Cash is above MA5, MA10 and MA40; below MA20, MA30 and MA60 — three of six, with MA30 nearest at $7.72.
• ⚑ Westmetall’s verification is extended from eight sessions to TWELVE, still with zero revisions. Newly confirmed this edition: Aug 18 $3,219.00 / $3,234.00 / 246,925; Aug 17 $3,272.00 / $3,272.00 / 246,925; Aug 14 $3,248.00 / $3,246.00 / 248,300; Aug 13 $3,279.00 / $3,275.00 / 250,000.
• ⚑ The new rows recover a curve state this brief had never carried: on August 17 cash and 3M were IDENTICAL at $3,272.00 — a dead-flat spread — while August 13 and 14 were in BACKWARDATION of $4.00 and $2.00. The run therefore traced a complete path from backwardation through flat into contango.
• ⚑ A live London electronic quote does exist for today: 3M $3,252.50 (+$10.50) at roughly 08:50 Beijing, referenced against Friday’s $3,242 electronic 3M close. ⊘ It is a live quote on the September 1 trading day, not a settlement, and not the same caliber as Westmetall’s $3,241.00.
• ⊘ The SHFE-LME ratio moved from 7.4239 to 7.4721 — but the numerator traded and the denominator was shut. This must NOT be read as Shanghai outperforming London (interpretation).

2 · Aluminum Prices and Related Markets

⚑ August 31 spot: all nine calibers rose, and not one kept up with the board

• Shanghai spot 23,970 (+70, range 23,950–24,000); Changjiang 23,960 (+40, range 23,940–23,980); Zhongyuan 23,960 (+40); Nanhai 24,440 (+50, range 24,390–24,490); Guangdong Nanchu 24,160 (+50).
• ⚑ Chalco RAISED all four regional quotations, reversing Friday’s four cuts: East China 23,970 (+70), South China 24,160 (+50), Southwest 24,000 (+60), Central China 23,860 (+70).
• ⊘ But the best of them managed +70 against a board that moved +155. The sign changed; the underperformance did not.
• ⚑ The basis therefore blew out from −20 to −105 (Shanghai spot 23,970 against AL2610’s 24,075), and to −110 against the front-month AL2609 close of 24,080.
• ⚑ Spreads: Nanhai−Shanghai 470 (from 490), Nanchu−Shanghai 190 (from 210), Chalco South−East 190 (from 210) — all three narrower for a THIRD consecutive session.
• ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber for August 31 was not retrievable, nor were SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and regional premia. The A00 page’s intraday premium band converts to roughly −21 to 0 yuan, averaging about −10 and unchanged on the day (this is a conversion, NOT an SMM quotation).

Secondary aluminium, alumina and cost items

• Carried: ADC12 23,900 with a 300 premium over A00; scrap 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Port Klang FOB $3,090; secondary operating rate 49.1%.
• Carried: SMM alumina index 2,676 (August 27); Chalco’s five regional listings — Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660. ⚑ AO2610’s close of 2,687 is now ABOVE Guangxi’s 2,660 but still below the other four; last edition it was below all five.
• ⚑ NEW COST ITEM: September prebaked anode settles at 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 yuan/mt on acceptance, and PetroChina Northeast low-sulphur petroleum coke prices rise from 00:00 September 1. The carbon leg of smelter cost is firming, not easing.
• Carried: Guinean bauxite FOB $38–42, CIF $70–74, flat week-on-week; Japan MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10) against a Q2 2026 quarterly settlement of $350–353.

Interpretation

• ⚑ The sentence worth keeping from the alumina column: the board moved first and the offers did not. The prior watchlist’s discriminating test for the RUSAL item required MA20 cleared for TWO consecutive sessions AND Chalco’s regional listings raised. Session one is passed; the listings are not raised; and the night session’s fade to 2,678 did not help. On this brief’s own criteria that is positioning confirmation, not industry confirmation (interpretation).
• ⚑ The net direction of this column: the board is bullish, the physical is bearish, and the gap between them widened by 85 points this edition.

3 · Inventory

⚑ Ingot: an eighth-draw caliber, and the month’s closing arithmetic

• ⚑ SMM’s August 31 morning meeting carries domestic aluminium ingot social inventory at 837,000 mt, −15,000 w/w. 852,000 − 15,000 = 837,000 exactly, so it reads as the next print in the series and an EIGHTH consecutive draw, taking the cumulative fall from July 23’s 1,006,000 mt to 169,000 mt. ⊘ The retrieved text does not state the figure’s reference date, so it is carried with a ⊘.
• ⚑ SMM separately closed out the month: August destocked 106,000 mt, cumulative destocking since July reached 278,000 mt from an early-July phase high of 1,130,000 mt, and the month ended “around 850,000 mt, in line with earlier market consensus expectations”. ⊘ Note that August’s pace SLOWED markedly against July’s 170,000+ mt in a single month.
• Carried: SHFE weekly warehouse inventory 391,498 mt (August 28), −12,299 w/w; registered warrants 245,510 mt (−28,691); bonded 116,000 mt (−1,000); SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827).
• ⊘ LME stocks 246,725 mt — no session traded, so there is no change to report.
• ⊘ Billet 143,000 mt (a five-year high for the period) and cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second and accelerating build) are both carried. There is no new data on either this edition.

Interpretation

• The support inventory lends the price is still present but weakening at the margin, on both available calibers: the exchange series slowed from −18,300 to −12,299, and the monthly series slowed from July’s 170,000+ mt to August’s 106,000 mt.
• ⚑ The divergence is unchanged and remains more informative than the total: ingot is drawing while billet and cast alloy build. With no new billet or alloy print this edition, that reading is neither corroborated nor overturned.

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ China’s August manufacturing PMI at 49.8 — a beat, with internals better than the headline

• ⚑ NBS: August manufacturing PMI 49.8, above the 49.7 consensus and July’s 49.2, up 0.6 points and the best reading since June’s 50.3 — but a second consecutive month in contraction.
• ⚑ Components: output 50.4 (July 49.9); new orders 50.6 (July 48.5, back in expansion); new export orders back above fifty; purchasing 50.5 (July 49.4); supplier delivery times 50.1 (July 49.5) — shortening for the FIRST TIME IN SEVEN MONTHS.
• ⊘ But employment fell to 48.7 (July 49.0); non-manufacturing was 49.0, unchanged from July; services business activity 49.3, also unchanged. Factories stabilised; the consumer did not.
• ⊘ A methodological fact worth recording: the prior edition carried a single uncorroborated calendar caliber of 49.5 with an explicit instruction not to read it as the published figure. The actual was 49.8. Refusing an uncorroborated single source has now been vindicated twice in a fortnight.
• ⊘ The RatingDog manufacturing PMI publishes at 09:45 today, after this edition’s cut-off, and is NOT confirmed here. July was 50.9 from June’s 51.7; the two series currently diverge by roughly 1.0 point against the NBS 49.8 and do not substitute for one another.

⚑ Crude flipped sides: the prior edition’s bearish energy call is reversed

• ⚑ Brent settled +2.71% at $90.49 and WTI +2.83% at $85.76. The driver is the first US-Iran military exchange in a month.
• ⚑ This directly overturns the prior edition’s conclusion that crude was “unambiguously bearish” and that the energy cost tail had thinned. For aluminium, a bull argument that had been removed was handed back in a single session.
• ⊘ But gold did not confirm: it closed near $4,447, −0.26%. A Gulf supply shock that lands on the inflation side of the mandate rather than the growth side does not bid the debasement hedge (interpretation) — and the inflation side is precisely the one that puts the Fed back in play.

⊘ The Fed and the dollar: two calibers eight points apart on the same day

• ⊘ CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp September hike: one caliber reads 66% (11:40 ET, August 31), a separate same-day caliber reads 58%. Against roughly 35% pre-Warsh. Listed, NOT reconciled.
• ⊘ The October strip is absent for a FOURTH consecutive edition — this brief’s longest-running data gap. December remains “above 70%” and essentially unchanged from the pre-speech 72.7%.
• The dollar index is 99.36 (−0.31%) on the retrievable caliber; a separate account describes the session as mixed and net softer.
• US equities closed out August higher: S&P 500 −0.33% to 7,686.14, Nasdaq −0.12% to 26,370.89, Dow −0.7% to 53,185.90, all three still positive for the month.
• US August payrolls publish Friday, September 4, at roughly 90,000. With a 4.1% jobless rate a soft print buys little dovish relief while a firm one confirms the September strip.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

• ⚑ The net moves from the prior edition’s “neutral-to-bearish” to NEUTRAL, because two opposing forces both strengthened. The bullish one is China’s PMI beat with new orders back in expansion; the bearish one is a September strip still at 58–66% and a dollar holding above 99.
• ⚑ Crude cuts both ways this time: it restores the energy cost tail (bullish for aluminium’s cost floor) while reinforcing the inflation path (bearish for the Fed path). This brief does not book it in one direction.

5 · Fundamentals

Supply: the forward book is carried; nothing new at the near end

• Carried: RUSAL’s proposal to mothball 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity (30.7% of its own) plus the SUBR bauxite mine — still a proposal in a letter, no timeline, no government answer, and still NOT booked here as a realised supply reduction.
• Carried: Guinea’s export cap target of roughly 150 million mt/yr (about −25% against the baseline); Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cut of 1.2 mtpa from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200–300 kt to 9.5–9.6 million mt; Alunorte held at 50% on gas.
• Carried: Qatalum at roughly 60% of nameplate (~390 kt/yr against 648 kt); Alba lines 1–3 down, 19% of capacity (~311 kt/yr); EGA’s Al Taweelah at 315 of 1,262 cells restarted (18% → 25%), with its alumina refinery debottlenecking now complete.
• Carried: China’s smelter operating rate at 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling, essentially full; Europe’s H1 aluminium output +4.9% against alumina −1.8%, with more than 1 million tonnes of European smelting capacity lost since 2022.
• ⊘ The offsetting item stands: China’s installed alumina capacity exceeds 110 million mt and H1 output was still rising on new additions.
• ⚑ One new trade-flow item: RUSAL is reported to be redirecting shipments away from China toward Japan and other Asian markets as geopolitics redraws trade routes and regional premiums (⊘ secondary source, not quantified).

⚑ Demand: for the first time in a month, two legs point the same way

• ⚑ China’s August manufacturing PMI 49.8 (July 49.2), new orders 50.6 (July 48.5), new export orders back above fifty.
• ⚑ Read against the August aluminium processing PMI of 48.7% (July 42.2%): two independent surveys improved in the same month and in the same direction. This is the first time since July that the demand column rests on more than a single observation (interpretation).
• ⊘ But both legs are still below fifty, and the weekly operating rates through August 27 remain two up, one flat, one down: extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp).
• ⊘ Employment at 48.7 and non-manufacturing unchanged at 49.0 say the improvement is concentrated in manufacturing and has not spread to jobs or services.
• Carried profit calibers: January–July industrial profits +17.6% to 4.58 trillion yuan, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling +91.8%; Yunnan Aluminium H1 net profit 7.684 billion yuan (+177.61%); Chalco 11.871 billion (+67.91%).

Interpretation

• ⚑ The net change in fundamentals this edition is positive, and the change is in demand rather than supply. The supply column added no new realised reduction — all of it is carried. The demand column obtained mutually corroborating survey evidence for the first time. The cost column firmed at two points at once, prebaked anode and crude.
• ⊘ But joining the three columns, the thinnest link remains the metal-to-downstream leg: the surveys improved while every spot caliber lagged the board, the basis widened to −105, and the South China spreads narrowed for a third consecutive session. The surveys are improving; the trading is not (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

August 31 transactions and sentiment

• East China: Shanghai spot 23,970 (+70), basis −105. The move was led by the board with holders repricing to follow; downstream take-up did not improve in step.
• South China: Nanhai 24,440 (+50), Nanchu 24,160 (+50); the Nanhai−Shanghai spread at 470, narrower for a third consecutive session.
• Central China: Chalco Central China 23,860 (+70) — still the lowest of the nine calibers, but tied for the largest gain.
• ⚑ Chalco raised all four regions, reversing Friday’s four cuts. This is the one unambiguously positive signal in the spot column this edition.
• Shipment willingness: moves from “strong (sellers actively cutting to move metal)” to NEUTRAL (repricing with the market). Purchasing willingness: still WEAK (rigid-demand buying, wait-and-see). ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable; the above is inferred from price and spread behaviour.
• ⚑ But the premium behaviour is unchanged from the prior edition: the board added 155, spot added at most 70, and the basis widened by 85. Metal is still giving up premium in order to follow the board (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

• ⚑ AL2610 closed 24,075, the highest close since August 12, above all six of its own moving averages by 164.25 to 499.67.
• ⚑ MA20 went from a 30.75 clearance to a 164.25 clearance on an average that itself rose 21.50 — the prior watchlist’s primary test passed in its strongest form.
• ⚑ The retracement improved from 57.4% to 33.3%; the 20-session percentile is 69.1% and the 60-session 87.9%.
• ⚑ Volume 195,036 (+28.2%), ending three consecutive declines.
• ⚑ The night session opened above the close and printed 24,095, the highest since August 17.
• ⚑ China’s August manufacturing PMI 49.8, above the 49.7 consensus and July’s 49.2; new orders 50.6 from 48.5; output 50.4; export orders back above fifty; purchasing 50.5.
• ⚑ Supplier delivery times shortened for the first time in seven months, pointing to faster supply-chain turnover.
• ⚑ Read against the aluminium processing PMI’s 48.7% (from 42.2%), two independent surveys improved in the same month — the demand column is no longer a single observation.
• ⚑ Alumina AO2610 reclaimed four averages in one session, ending five consecutive sessions beneath all six.
• ⚑ A new social inventory caliber at 837,000 mt (−15,000 w/w) reads as an eighth consecutive draw, cumulative −169,000 mt from July 23.
• ⚑ August destocked 106,000 mt with 278,000 mt cumulative since July, ending the month around 850,000 mt in line with expectations.
• ⚑ All nine spot calibers rose and Chalco raised all four regions, reversing Friday’s across-the-board cuts.
• ⚑ Brent +2.71% to $90.49 and WTI +2.83% to $85.76 — the energy cost tail is handed back.
• ⚑ September prebaked anode at 5,730 yuan/mt (5,745 on acceptance) and petroleum coke rising from September 1 — the carbon cost leg is firming.
• ⚑ Alumina remains 31 and 139.21 below the two cost calibers of 2,718 and 2,826.21, and four of Chalco’s five regional listings remain above the board.
• ⚑ The forward alumina and bauxite book is still cut or capped in five places (RUSAL, Guinea, Yarwun, Alcoa, Alunorte).
• ⚑ Qatalum at ~60% of nameplate, Alba −19%, Alunorte at 50% — the overseas smelting and refining gaps persist.
• ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate of 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling leaves no domestic supply elasticity.
• ⚑ Non-ferrous smelting and rolling profits +91.8% for January–July make a policy relaxation of the capacity ceiling less likely, not more.
• ⚑ LME stocks of 246,725 mt are the low of the run and are now verified across twelve consecutive Westmetall sessions with zero revisions.
• ⚑ Bonded stocks 116,000 mt (−1,000) — external material is not returning; SHFE registered warrants fell 28,691 on the week.
• ⚑ AD2610 closed 23,395 (+180) above all six of its averages, with the AD−AL discount narrowing 705 → 680.
• ⚑ The live London electronic 3M quote of $3,252.50 (+$10.50) suggests London may follow on reopening.
• ⚑ Europe’s H1 aluminium output +4.9% against alumina −1.8% widens the regional gap at both ends.
• ⚑ Japan’s quarterly premium rose from $86 to $350–353 across three quarters; Asian physical pricing remains historically high.
• ⚑ US scrap exports +21% in H1 to 1.25 million mt tighten compliant scrap internationally and support secondary cost.
• ⚑ RUSAL is reported to be redirecting shipments from China toward Japan and other Asian markets, which would tighten import material available to China.

⊘ Bearish factors

• ⊘ London did not trade, so Shanghai’s advance has no confirmation at all; the ratio’s move to 7.4721 is a one-sided arithmetic artefact and must not be read as Shanghai outperforming.
• ⊘ The settlement rose only 30 against a close-to-close of 155 — most of the gain came late and is not in the margin caliber.
• ⊘ Open interest rose only 618 lots against a 248,527-lot book; the advance was not bought with new money.
• ⊘ The night session gave back 80 points from 24,095 to close at 24,015 with OI down a further 3,236 — covering, not buying.
• ⊘ The best of nine spot calibers managed +70 against a board up 155; not one kept up. The sign changed, the lag did not.
• ⊘ The basis widened from −20 to −105 (−110 against the front month) — the opposite of the repair the prior watchlist looked for.
• ⊘ The three South China spreads narrowed for a THIRD consecutive session, taking “South China tightness is structural” from “fading” to FADED.
• ⊘ Alumina open interest fell 74,424 in one session, a new record, the second record liquidation in three sessions and both into rising prices — short covering, not repricing.
• ⊘ Alumina remains below MA40 and MA60 with a 60-session percentile of only 22.5%, and the night session faded to 2,678.
• ⊘ Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were NOT raised, so on this brief’s own criteria the move is positioning confirmation rather than industry confirmation.
• ⊘ The manufacturing PMI at 49.8 is still below fifty and still contraction for a second month; the employment sub-index fell to 48.7.
• ⊘ Non-manufacturing at 49.0 and services at 49.3 were both unchanged from July — no improvement on the consumer side.
• ⊘ Weekly operating rates remain two up, one flat, one down, with extrusion at 50.6% (−0.2pp) — the construction chain continues to deteriorate.
• ⊘ Destocking slowed on both calibers: the exchange series from −18,300 to −12,299, and the monthly series from 170,000+ mt in July to 106,000 mt in August.
• ⊘ Billet at 143,000 mt remains a five-year high for the period and cast alloy at 28,100 mt built for a second accelerating week; no new data this edition means the risk is unresolved, not removed.
• ⊘ September hike pricing is both elevated and incoherent: 58% and 66% coexist on the same day against roughly 35% pre-speech.
• ⊘ December remains above 70% and the dollar holds above 99 at 99.36.
• ⊘ The October strip is absent for a fourth consecutive edition; the middle of the Fed path remains a blind spot.
• ⊘ The nature of the crude rally is an inflation shock rather than a growth shock — gold’s −0.26% did not confirm a haven bid — and an inflation shock puts the Fed back in play.
• ⊘ China’s installed alumina capacity exceeds 110 million mt with H1 output still rising; the domestic surplus narrative is unchanged.
• ⊘ The RUSAL mothballing remains a proposal in a letter with no timeline and no government answer, and a mothballed RUSAL becomes an additional seaborne BUYER.
• ⊘ Canada’s September 8 steel and aluminium counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% across more than 300 metals products, with aluminium bars named.
• ⊘ EGA’s Al Taweelah recovery has moved from 18% to 25% and its alumina refinery debottlenecking is complete — the overseas gap is being refilled at the margin.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (September 1) Day and Night Sessions

• ⚑ London’s first price on reopening — this edition’s largest gap and today’s single most important variable. Shanghai rose 155 alone on a day the LME was shut, mechanically lifting the ratio to 7.4721. There are only two outcomes: cash follows higher and attacks MA30 ($3,229.72) and MA60 ($3,245.79), which ratifies Shanghai’s advance; or London fails to follow, which reclassifies August 31 as an isolated event inside a one-sided market. Watch alongside it whether the contango holds $19.00, the direction of the first stock change after 246,725 mt, and whether this morning’s live electronic $3,252.50 survives into a settlement.
• ⚑ Whether the basis repairs — the only question that matters in the spot column. Widening from −20 to −105 is the deepest discount of this sequence and it happened on a day when all nine spot calibers ROSE, which upgrades “the board is moving alone” from a single-day event to a testable pattern. If spot again gains less than the board and the basis goes further negative, the reading that metal refuses to bid for the board is established; if the basis converges back inside −50, August 31 can be attributed more to a late-session board move. Watch whether the three South China spreads narrow for a fourth consecutive session.
• ⚑ Whether AO2610 closes above MA20 (2,678.90) for a SECOND consecutive session, and whether Chalco’s five regional alumina listings are raised. This is the test the prior edition set and which this edition only half-passed. Three specific observation points: the night session already faded to 2,678, exactly 0.90 above MA20; MA30 (2,686.33) is held by only 0.67, the thinnest clearance anywhere on the complex; and after more than 120,000 lots of open interest left in two sessions, whether a rise can occur on RISING open interest is the only hard discriminator between covering and accumulation. Offers moving first is industry confirmation; the board moving alone remains positioning.
• ⚑ Whether SHFE holds MA20 (23,910.75) and the night session’s 24,015, and whether it can attack 24,290. Upside sequence: 24,080 (AL2609 close) → 24,085 (night open) → 24,090 (day high) → 24,095 (night high, the highest since August 17) → 24,135 (the August 17 high) → 24,290 (the August 12 close and the twenty-session close top, now only 215 away). Downside: 24,015 (the night’s last print, today’s opening reference) → 23,980 (night low) → 23,970 (Shanghai spot) → 23,960 (settlement) → 23,910.75 (MA20) → 23,866.00 (MA5) → 23,845 (day low). Note that MA60 FELL 6.00 while price rose — the long-cycle average has not turned.
• ⚑ The RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 09:45 (July 50.9) and how it reads against the NBS 49.8. It is not confirmed in this edition. The two series currently diverge by roughly 1.0 point and do not substitute for one another. If the private caliber also improves, August’s manufacturing stabilisation gains a third independent leg and the demand column has three for the first time; if it falls back, the NBS improvement may be concentrated in large and state-owned enterprises, whose correlation with aluminium’s small and mid-sized downstream processors is weaker.
• ⚑ Open interest behaviour, which is decisive on both boards today. Aluminium’s advance carried only +618 lots and then shed 3,236 overnight; alumina has now had two record liquidations in three sessions. If today produces a further price rise WITH a material recovery in open interest, this edition’s “covering, not buying” judgement should be overturned and the quality of the move upgraded substantially. If price rises again on falling open interest, both boards should be read as working off short positions rather than building long ones, and the upside marked down accordingly.
• ⚑ The character of the crude move and its second-order effect on the Fed path. Brent at $90.49 is simultaneously bullish for aluminium’s cost floor and bearish for its valuation. Gold is the discriminator: its −0.26% on August 31 says the market read an inflation shock. If gold turns higher today while crude extends, the move is reclassified as a geopolitical supply shock and is net bullish for aluminium; if gold weakens further while September hike pricing rises, higher oil is net bearish. Watch alongside it whether the dollar holds 99, positioning into Friday’s payrolls at roughly 90,000, and whether the October strip finally becomes retrievable.

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, proposals that have not been executed, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “restated” or “carried” are unchanged by construction because no session has traded since the prior edition. Special notes for this edition: the LME was CLOSED on August 31 for the UK Summer Bank Holiday, so all London data is restated from August 28 and Shanghai’s advance carries no London confirmation; night-session figures are live quotes rather than settlements; and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI publishes after this brief’s data cut-off and is NOT confirmed here.