Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

London reopens and outperforms as LME cash clears all six averages at $3,261. The spot basis repairs to exactly zero.伦敦复市并跑赢,LME 现货升至 3,261 美元,站上全部六条均线;现货基差修复至零。

Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Wednesday September 2 (Asia), BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete September 1 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards; all eighteen SHFE moving averages recomputed exactly from a 216-session close series whose August 31 values reproduce the prior edition's published figures to the yuan on every one of the eighteen AL, AO and AD averages; the September 1 LME session — London's FIRST price since August 28, with Westmetall's own table now carrying the row; six LME cash averages recomputed exactly from a 67-session settlement series whose August 28 values reproduce the prior edition to the cent; a LIVE quote for the September 1 night session, which closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning and which contains the single most important tick in the edition; the cnal spot table for September 1 with all four Chalco regional quotations; the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, which the prior edition explicitly declined to confirm; and the September 1 macro close. ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: SMM's absolute A00 quotation and its regional transaction premia for September 1; the Shanghai Huatong caliber; SMM's alumina spot assessments and Chalco's five regional alumina listings for September 1 (login-walled — carried at August 27, so the prior watchlist's second alumina condition is UNTESTABLE this edition rather than failed, and that distinction is load-bearing); SHFE complex open interest and daily warrant tonnages; a new social-inventory print (SMM publishes Monday and Thursday — September 1 was a Tuesday, so the 837,000 mt caliber stands by construction, not by confirmation); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a FIFTH consecutive edition.
Steven Yuan
⚑ LONDON REOPENED AND OUTPERFORMED — THE PRIOR EDITION'S LARGEST GAP CLOSED BULLISH LME cash settled $3,261.00, +$39.00 (+1.21%). 3M $3,261.00, +$20.00. This is the highest cash settlement since August 17's $3,272.00
⚑ AND CASH CLEARED ALL SIX OF ITS OWN AVERAGES — FROM THREE OF SIX Above MA5 ($3,222.20) by $38.80, MA10 ($3,214.60) by $46.40, MA20 ($3,249.68) by $11.32, MA30 ($3,233.22) by $27.78, MA40 ($3,212.99) by $48.01, MA60 ($3,238.98) by $22.02
⚑ THE RATIO FELL FROM 7.4721 TO 7.3934 — THE ARTEFACT IS RETIRED FROM THE RIGHT SIDE 24,110 ÷ $3,261.00. The prior edition warned the 7.4721 print was a one-sided arithmetic product. London's own session did not merely restore the denominator — it beat the numerator (derivation)
⊘ BUT THE CONTANGO COLLAPSED FROM $19.00 TO EXACTLY ZERO Cash and 3M both $3,261.00. This brief's verified record contains one precedent: August 17, also dead flat at $3,272.00 — and cash fell to $3,182.00 in three sessions, −$90.00
⊘ AND LME STOCKS DID NOT DRAW FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION 246,725 mt, unchanged from August 28. The post-August-19 sequence now reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725. The draw is not reversing; it has stopped
⚑ LONDON IS MID-RANGE WHERE SHANGHAI IS NEAR ITS TOP — AND THAT IS THE ROOM LME cash percentiles 41.4% (20-session) and 36.5% (60-session) against SHFE's 74.1% and 89.8%. On its own history London has far more upside left than Shanghai does (derivation)
⚑ THE BASIS REPAIRED THE WHOLE 105-POINT GAP AND LANDED AT EXACTLY ZERO Shanghai spot 24,110 against AL2610's close of 24,110. Against the front-month AL2609 close of 24,125 it is −15, from −110. The prior watchlist's primary spot question, answered in full
⚑ AND ALL NINE SPOT CALIBERS BEAT THE BOARD, BY 85 TO 115 POINTS EACH Spot added 120 to 150 against a board that added 35. On August 28 not one of nine rose; on August 31 all nine rose and none kept up; on September 1 all nine rose and every one won
⚑ THIS BRIEF RECORDS THAT ITS OWN READING WAS FALSIFIED IN ONE SESSION The prior edition called 'metal refuses to bid for the board' the hardest fact in the edition and offered it as a testable pattern. The test ran the next session and it failed (interpretation)
⊘ BUT THE SOUTH CHINA SPREADS NARROWED FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION Nanhai−Shanghai 470 → 460; Nanchu−Shanghai 190 → 170; Chalco South−East 190 → 170. All three, four sessions running. That reading is not falsified — it is reinforced
⊘ THE SHFE BOARD ITSELF ADDED ONLY 35 POINTS AL2610: open 24,085, high 24,145, low 23,980, CLOSE 24,110, settlement 24,070. Close-to-close +35 (+0.15%); against the prior settlement of 23,960 it is +150 (+0.63%)
⚑ STILL THE HIGHEST CLOSE SINCE AUGUST 12, FOR A SECOND SESSION And the high of 24,145 is the highest intraday print since August 14's 24,170 — it exceeded the August 17 high of 24,135 that the prior edition named as the nearest level above
⚑ ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES BY 173.00 TO 537.17 MA5 23,937.00, MA10 23,818.50, MA20 23,925.75, MA30 23,760.17, MA40 23,608.12, MA60 23,572.83. The retracement of the August 3–12 advance improved again, 33.3% → 27.9%
⊘ BUT MA60 FELL FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION WHILE PRICE ROSE −2.50, after −6.00. Five averages are rising and the longest one is not. The long-cycle average still has not turned (derivation)
⊘ AND VOLUME COLLAPSED 30.7% WHILE OPEN INTEREST ADDED 71 LOTS 135,186 against 194,986; OI 248,598 against 248,527. Two sessions of advance have now added 689 lots of net position to a quarter-million-lot book
⊘ THE NIGHT SESSION NEVER TRADED ABOVE ITS OPEN AL2610 opened at 24,110 — exactly the day close — printed 24,110 as its high, fell 130 to 23,980 inside fifteen minutes, then ground back to 24,080. VWAP 24,037.24, OI 245,328 (−3,270)
⊘ AND IT BOTTOMED AT 23,980 — THE SAME TICK AS THE NIGHT BEFORE Two consecutive night sessions with an identical low. That is either a defended level or a resting order; this brief cannot distinguish them and says so (interpretation)
⚑ ALUMINA'S NIGHT SESSION IS THE EDITION'S SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT TICK AO2610 went vertical in the 23:15 bar: 2,699 → a 2,740 high, with open interest jumping 143,686 → 152,145, up 8,459 lots IN ONE FIFTEEN-MINUTE BAR
⚑ AND THAT IS EXACTLY THE DISCRIMINATOR THE PRIOR WATCHLIST NAMED It said a rise on RISING open interest was 'the only hard discriminator between covering and accumulation'. Night OI closed 148,671, +4,379 on the day-session book. Accumulation
⚑ THE NIGHT'S LAST PRINT WAS 2,718 — EXACTLY COST CALIBER ONE The board has reached the lower of its two cost calibers for the first time in this sequence. The night high of 2,740 also cleared Chalco's Shandong listing of 2,730 (derivation)
⚑ AND THE NIGHT TRADED MORE THAN THE DAY DID: 146,291 AGAINST 134,185 A night session larger than its own day session, on rising open interest, into a vertical move. Every one of those three is the opposite of the two record liquidations
⊘ BUT THE DAY SESSION ITSELF ADDED ONLY 6 AND MISSED MA40 BY 0.95 AO2610 closed 2,693 (+6, +0.22%) with OI 144,292, down another 9,878 — a THIRD consecutive decline. From August 27's 280,950 that is −136,658, or −48.6% of the book in three sessions
⚑ MA20 HELD FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION — HALF THE TEST PASSED 2,693 against MA20 2,681.30, by 11.70, and against MA30 2,684.33 by 8.67. ⊘ The other half — Chalco's five regional listings — was login-walled and is UNTESTABLE, not failed
⚑ RATINGDOG PRINTED 51.5 — A BEAT, AND A SIX-MONTH HIGH Against 51.0 expected and July's 50.9. The prior edition flagged this as publishing after its cut-off and declined to carry it. It is now confirmed and it beat
⊘ BUT IT NOW DISAGREES WITH THE NBS BY 1.7 POINTS — THE WIDEST OF THE YEAR 51.5 against 49.8. One survey says Chinese manufacturing expanded in August at its fastest in six months; the other says it contracted for a second month. Both are for August
⚑ CRUDE ROSE A SECOND DAY AND THIS TIME IT WAS VIOLENT Brent settled $94.65 (+$4.16, +4.60%); WTI $90.22 (+$4.46, +5.20%). Two-session Brent gain +7.4%. ⊘ A separate caliber has Brent at $95.20 (+4.98%), listed and not reconciled
⚑ NEW: THE IEA CUT 2026 GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY TO 102 MILLION b/d, −4.3 m b/d y/y Citing the ceasefire breakdown and a renewed closure of the strait. The driver on the day was US strikes on Larak Island, Iranian retaliation on bases in Jordan and the UAE, and two tankers struck in Hormuz
⚑ AND GOLD FELL FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION INTO IT $4,396.40 (−$85.10, −1.90%) on one caliber, $4,358.74 (−1.86%) on another. ⊘ Two calibers, not reconciled — they disagree on the prior close as well as the level
⚑ CRUDE UP HARD AND GOLD DOWN HARD, TWO SESSIONS RUNNING The prior edition asserted this was an inflation shock rather than a supply shock and set gold as the discriminator. The discriminator has now answered twice in the same direction: confirmed
⊘ THE DOLLAR IS FIRMER AND IS AT THE HIGH OF ITS REBOUND TODAY September 1 reads 99.412 (−0.29%) and 99.416 on two calibers against 99.36 carried. As of this morning it is 99.719, described as extending the rebound from August 21's three-month low of 98.8
⊘ September hike odds 62% and 'more than 65%' — a THIRD edition of unreconciled calibers Against the 58% and 66% carried for August 31, and roughly 35–36% pre-Warsh. The October strip is absent for a FIFTH consecutive edition
⊘ US equities fell across the board on the oil spike and the hawkish path S&P 500 7,631 (−0.71%), Nasdaq 26,099 (−1.03%), Dow 52,767 (−0.79%), VIX 16.80 intraday. 10-year 4.796% (+3.8bp) — ⊘ a second caliber reads 4.756%
⚑ AD2610 CLOSED 23,435 (+40) — ABOVE ALL SIX FOR A SECOND SESSION MA5 23,282.00, MA10 23,143.00, MA20 23,271.50, MA30 23,230.00, MA40 23,159.00, MA60 23,102.67. OI 6,781 (−429). The AD−AL discount narrowed 680 → 675, then re-widened to 725 overnight
⚑ NEW SUPPLY CALIBER, AND IT CUTS AGAINST THE ALUMINA BULL CASE China's BUILT alumina capacity is 120.95 million mt/yr against OPERATING capacity of 95.90 million mt/yr at end-July — 25 million mt idle, a 79.3% utilisation rate. ⊘ Secondary source
⊘ NO NEW SOCIAL INVENTORY PRINT — SMM PUBLISHES MONDAY AND THURSDAY September 1 was a Tuesday. The 837,000 mt (−15,000) eighth-draw caliber stands by construction, not by confirmation, and its reference date is still not stated
⚑ METHOD: the close series reproduces the prior edition on all EIGHTEEN averages 216 SHFE sessions and 67 LME settlements. Every published AL, AO and AD average for August 31 and every LME cash average for August 28 is reproduced exactly before any new value is computed

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 9月2日(周三)上午,时点在 09:00 沪铝日盘开盘之前。
  • ⚑ 上期列出的五项「看不见」的东西,在一个交易日内全部变得可见,其中四项朝多头方向落定。 本期载入 9月1日沪铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金三个完整交易日盘面;伦敦自 8月28日以来的第一根价格,且 Westmetall 官方表格已收录该行;以及 9月1日夜盘(归属 9月2日交易日,于今晨 01:00 收市)的实时报价——本期最重要的一个印记就在夜盘里。
  • ⚑ 方法:沪市均线由交易所公布的 AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 收盘序列共 216 个交易日精确计算;伦敦均线由 67 个现货结算日精确计算。在计算任何 9月1日数值之前,两个序列已先行复算——沪市 8月31日的十八条均线(AL、AO、AD 各六条)与伦敦 8月28日的六条均线,与上期公布值逐一分毫不差地吻合。
  • ⊘ 未取得:9月1日 SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分区域成交升贴水;上海华通口径;9月1日 SMM 氧化铝现货评估与中铝五地氧化铝报价(需登录,仍载 8月27日——因此上期关注清单氧化铝判别标准的第二场本期是「无法检验」而非「未通过」,这个区别是有重量的);上期所品种合计持仓与日度仓单吨位;新的社会库存印记(SMM 于周一与周四发布,9月1日为周二,故 837,000 吨口径按构造沿用,而非获得确认);以及 10 月联邦基金利率条——连续第五期缺失。

⚑ 伦铝:复市后不是跟涨,是领涨,且一举六守其六

  • ⚑ LME 现货结算 3,261.00 美元,+39.00(+1.21%);三个月结算 3,261.00 美元,+20.00。这是 8月17日 3,272.00 美元以来的最高现货结算。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 3,222.20、MA10 3,214.60、MA20 3,249.68、MA30 3,233.22、MA40 3,212.99、MA60 3,238.98。现货高于全部六条,分别高出 38.80、46.40、11.32、27.78、48.01、22.02 美元——上期为六守其三。这是本简报所载伦敦价格首次站上自身全部六条均线。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +9.10、MA30 +3.50、MA40 +3.90,而 MA10 −1.10、MA60 −6.81,MA20 几乎未动(+0.06)。也就是说,MA20 的收复是价格走出来的,不是均线下移让出来的(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比价由 7.4721 回落至 7.3934(24,110 ÷ 3,261.00)。上期明确警告 7.4721 是单边市场的算术产物;伦敦复市不但补上了分母,而且跑赢了分子。这是可得结果中最强的一种。
  • ⊘ 但 contango 由 19.00 美元坍缩至精确的零——现货与三个月同为 3,261.00 美元。 本简报经 Westmetall 核实的记录中,这样的「完全持平」只有一个先例:8月17日,同为现货等于三个月(3,272.00 美元),其后三个交易日现货跌至 3,182.00 美元,合计 −90.00 美元。
  • ⊘ LME 库存 246,725 吨,连续第二个交易日零变动。8月19日之后的序列为 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725:去库不是在反转,是停了。
  • ⚑ 一条位置对比值得单列:伦敦现货的 20 日分位仅 41.4%、60 日分位 36.5%,而沪铝分别为 74.1% 与 89.8%。在各自的历史区间里,伦敦离顶部远得多——这既是比价压缩的空间,也是本期最直接的多头论据之一(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 另有一条口径需要并列:cnal 载 9月1日伦铝电子盘三个月收 3,272.50 美元(+30.50),高于上期载入的 08:50 实时报价 3,252.50 美元 20.00 美元;它与 Westmetall 的 3,261.00 美元结算口径不同,两者并列,不做调和。

⚑ 沪铝:连续第二个交易日为 8月12日以来最高收盘,但盘面本身只涨了 35 元

  • AL2610(主力):开 24,085,高 24,145,低 23,980,收 24,110,结算 24,070,前结算 23,960;收盘对收盘 +35(+0.15%),较前结算 +150(+0.63%);成交 135,186 手(−30.7%),持仓 248,598 手(+71)。
  • ⚑ 24,145 为 8月14日 24,170 以来的最高盘中印记,已越过上期点名的「最近的上方印记」8月17日高点 24,135。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 23,937.00、MA10 23,818.50、MA20 23,925.75、MA30 23,760.17、MA40 23,608.12、MA60 23,572.83。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 173.00、291.50、184.25、349.83、501.88、537.17 元。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +71.00、MA10 +15.50、MA20 +15.00、MA30 +32.00、MA40 +27.74,而 MA60 再度逆势 −2.50。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位由 69.1% 升至 74.1%,60 日分位由 87.9% 升至 89.8%;对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例由 33.3% 改善至 27.9%(起点 23,645,顶点 24,290,涨幅 645;收盘低于顶点 180 元、高于起点 465 元)。
  • ⚑ 前月 AL2609 收 24,125,高于主力 15 元;AL2611 收 24,110,与主力持平;AL2612 收 24,075。

解读:三条内部证据说明盘面自身并没有参与

  • ⊘ 第一,成交量塌了 30.7%(135,186 对 194,986),而持仓只增加 71 手。连续两个上涨交易日合计只为 248,598 手的存量增加了 689 手净头寸。
  • ⊘ 第二,夜盘全程没有越过开盘价。 AL2610 夜盘开于 24,110——与日盘收盘完全相同——最高即为 24,110,开盘十五分钟内下挫 130 点至 23,980,此后一路磨回 24,080;均价 24,037.24,持仓 245,328 手(−3,270)。
  • ⊘ 第三,夜盘的低点 23,980 与前一夜的低点完全相同。 连续两个夜盘在同一个价位见底,既可能是被防守的位置,也可能只是一张挂单;本简报无法区分这两者,并如实说明(此为解读)。

⚑ 9月1日夜盘(归属 9月2日交易日)——本期最重要的印记在氧化铝

  • AL2610:开 24,110,高 24,110,低 23,980,末价 24,080,均价 24,037.24,成交 61,647 手,持仓 245,328 手(−3,270)。⊘ 快照口径的末价读作 24,075,与 15 分钟线的 24,080 相差一跳,两者并列。
  • ⚑ AO2610:开 2,693,高 2,740,低 2,684,末价 2,718,均价 2,716.27,成交 146,291 手,持仓 148,671 手,较日盘的 144,292 手净增 4,379 手。
  • ⚑ 关键在于形态:23:15 这一根 15 分钟 K 线内,价格由 2,699 直线拉至 2,740,而持仓由 143,686 手跳增至 152,145 手,单根 K 线增仓 8,459 手。上期关注清单原文写明「能否出现增仓上行,是区分回补与建仓的唯一硬指标」。答案已经给出。
  • ⚑ 末价 2,718 恰好等于成本口径一(2,718),为本轮首次触及;夜盘高点 2,740 亦已越过中铝山东报价 2,730。夜盘成交量 146,291 手大于日盘的 134,185 手。
  • AD2610:开 23,360,高 23,465,低 23,280,末价 23,355,均价 23,355.96,成交 1,836 手,持仓 6,621 手(−160)。AD−AL 夜盘价差由日盘的 675 重新走阔至 725。
  • ⊘ 上述为夜盘实时报价,非结算数据,将于明日由交易所文件重述。

⚑ 氧化铝日盘:第二次站上 MA20,差 0.95 元没够到 MA40,而持仓第三次下降

  • AO2610:开 2,690,高 2,699,低 2,668,收 2,693,结算 2,683,前结算 2,684;+6(+0.22%),较前结算 −1;成交 134,185 手,持仓 144,292 手(−9,878)。
  • ⚑ 均线:MA5 2,656.00、MA10 2,667.50、MA20 2,681.30、MA30 2,684.33、MA40 2,693.95、MA60 2,747.10。收盘高于前四条(分别 +37.00、+25.50、+11.70、+8.67),低于 MA40 仅 0.95 元、低于 MA60 54.10 元。
  • ⚑ MA20 连续第二个交易日被站上,上期设定的判别标准第一项通过。⊘ 第二项(中铝五地报价是否上调)因需登录未取得,本期为「无法检验」,不得记为「未通过」。
  • ⊘ 持仓连续第三个交易日下降。自 8月27日的 280,950 手起算:228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292,三个交易日累计 −136,658 手,即 −48.6%。日盘的资金仍在离场,增仓发生在夜盘。
  • 分位由 64.6%/22.5% 升至 69.9%/24.3%。仍低于 2,718 与 2,826.21 两条成本口径 25 与 133.21 元(按日盘收盘计;夜盘末价已抵 2,718)。
  • AO2609 收 2,668,AO2611 收 2,702,曲线仍为正向排列。
  • AD2610 收 23,435(+40,+0.17%),结算 23,380,持仓 6,781(−429),连续第二个交易日高于自身全部六条均线(MA5 23,282.00、MA10 23,143.00、MA20 23,271.50、MA30 23,230.00、MA40 23,159.00、MA60 23,102.67)。AD−AL 日盘价差由 680 收窄至 675。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 9月1日现货:九条口径不但全涨,而且全部跑赢盘面

  • 上海现货 24,110(+140,区间 24,090–24,130);长江 24,110(+150,区间 24,090–24,130);中原 24,110(+150);南海(佛山)24,570(+130,区间 24,520–24,620);南海口径下的上海 A00 24,160(+140,区间 24,110–24,210);广东南储 24,280(+120,区间 24,250–24,310)。
  • ⚑ 中铝四个地区连续第二日全部上调:华东 24,110(+140)、华南 24,280(+120)、西南 24,130(+130)、华中 23,990(+130)。
  • ⚑ 九条口径的涨幅在 +120 至 +150 之间,而盘面只有 +35。每一条都跑赢盘面 85 至 115 个点。
  • ⚑ 基差由 −105 修复至精确的零(上海现货 24,110 对 AL2610 收盘 24,110);对前月 AL2609 收盘 24,125 为 −15(上期为 −110)。
  • ⚑ 三条价差:南海−上海 460(上期 470),南储−上海 170(上期 190),中铝华南−华东 170(上期 190)——连续第四个交易日收窄。
  • ⊘ 9月1日上海华通口径、SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分区域成交升贴水均未取得。

解读:本简报记录自身判断在一个交易日内被证伪

  • ⚑ 上期把「金属拒绝为盘面出价」称作全期最硬的一条事实,并明确写明这是一个可由下一个交易日检验的模式。检验在下一个交易日就跑了,而且结果是反的。 本简报在提出该判断的同一栏目里记录它的证伪(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 但需要同样明确的是:被证伪的只有「基差」这一条,「华南结构性偏紧已消退」那一条没有被证伪,反而被强化——三条价差连续第四个交易日收窄。两条判断来自同一栏目,结局相反,本简报不将其打包处理。

再生铝、氧化铝与成本项

  • 转载:ADC12 23,900,较 A00 升水 300;破碎生铝 19,900–20,700;海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元;马来西亚巴生港 FOB 3,090 美元;再生铝开工率 49.1%。⊘ 注意:A00 已升至 24,110,若 ADC12 仍为 23,900,则该升水已转为 −210 的贴水;但 ADC12 为转载值,本简报不据此计算新的价差。
  • 转载:SMM 氧化铝指数 2,676(8月27日);中铝五地报价山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660。⚑ 夜盘高点 2,740 已越过山东的 2,730,末价 2,718 仍低于除广西外的其余四地。
  • 转载:9 月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨,石油焦自 9月1日上调;几内亚铝土矿 FOB 38–42 美元、CIF 70–74 美元;日本 MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨(−10)。
  • ⚑ 原油连续第二日上涨且幅度加大,电解铝的能源成本一端与碳素一端本期同时走强。

三 · 库存

铝锭:本期无新印记,而伦敦的去库停了

  • ⊘ 本期没有新的社会库存数据。SMM 于每周一与周四发布,9月1日为周二。上期载入的 837,000 吨(周环比 −15,000,读作连续第八周去库,自 7月23日累计 −169,000 吨)按构造沿用,其参照日期仍未标注。
  • ⊘ LME 库存 246,725 吨,连续第二个交易日零变动。8月19日 35 日连降结束之后的完整序列为 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725,四个交易日合计只减少 200 吨。
  • 转载:上期所周度仓单库存 391,498 吨(8月28日),周环比 −12,299;注册仓单 245,510 吨(−28,691);保税区 116,000 吨(−1,000);上期所氧化铝周度库存 323,736 吨(−38,827)。
  • ⊘ 铝棒 143,000 吨(近五年同期最高);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨(+2,500,连续第二周且加速)。两者均为转载,本期无新数据,风险未解除亦未确认。

解读

  • ⚑ 库存栏本期的净变化是:国内一端无新信息,海外一端由「缓慢去库」转为「不去库」。 后者是本期为数不多的、明确变差的实物指标之一。
  • ⊘ 需要与价格并读的是:伦敦现货本期上涨 39.00 美元,而库存零变动。价格没有从库存里拿到任何新的支撑,它是从曲线和资金里拿到的(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ RatingDog 制造业 PMI 51.5——超预期,六个月新高,而它与官方口径的分歧扩大到 1.7 个点

  • ⚑ RatingDog(标普全球编制,原财新口径)8 月制造业 PMI 录得 51.5,高于 51.0 的预期与 7 月的 50.9,为六个月新高。上期以 ⊘ 标注并明确不予确认,本期确认,且结果是超预期。
  • ⊘ 但它与国家统计局的 49.8 相差 1.7 个点,为本简报记录以来最大。同一个月的两份调查,一份说中国制造业以六个月最快速度扩张,另一份说它连续第二个月收缩。本简报并列载入,不做调和,也不用其中一条替代另一条。
  • ⚑ 需求栏因此有了第三条腿:国家统计局 49.8、铝加工行业 PMI 48.7%、RatingDog 51.5。⊘ 但三条腿只有一条在 50 之上,且分歧的方向恰好落在「大型企业与中小企业」这条本简报此前点名的断层上(此为解读)。

⚑ 原油连续第二日上涨,而且这一次是暴涨;黄金连续第四日下跌

  • ⚑ 布伦特结算 94.65 美元(+4.16,+4.60%),WTI 结算 90.22 美元(+4.46,+5.20%)。两个交易日布伦特累计上涨约 7.4%。⊘ 另有口径载布伦特 95.20 美元(24 小时 +4.98%),并列载入,不做调和。
  • ⚑ 驱动因素:美军打击拉腊克岛伊朗目标,伊朗以打击约旦与阿联酋境内美军基地回应,霍尔木兹海峡内两艘油轮(一艘沙特籍、一艘韩国籍)在数分钟内先后被不明弹药击中,无人员伤亡报告;另有报道称 9月1日美军对海峡周边伊朗目标实施新一轮打击。
  • ⚑ 本期新增一条供给口径:国际能源署 8 月将 2026 年全球石油供应预测下调至 1.02 亿桶/日,同比减少 430 万桶/日,理由为停火破裂与海峡再度关闭。⊘ 另有追踪口径称霍尔木兹海峡对商业航运的关闭已进入第 185 天,为二手来源。
  • ⚑ 黄金:4,396.40 美元(−85.10,−1.90%)为一条口径,4,358.74 美元(−1.86%)为另一条。⊘ 两条口径不但在价位上不一致,在前收盘上也不一致,并列载入。这是连续第四个下跌交易日。
  • ⚑ 判定已经完成:上期把「原油上涨究竟是通胀冲击还是供给冲击」交给黄金去区分,并预设了答案。该指标已连续两个交易日给出同一个方向——原油暴涨、黄金重挫。上期的判断由「主张」升级为「已确认」(此为解读)。而通胀冲击正是把联储重新放回牌桌的那一侧。

⊘ 联储与美元:第三期口径不一,且美元处于本轮反弹的高点

  • ⊘ 9 月加息 25 个基点的概率:9月1日口径为 62%,9月2日口径为「65% 以上」,对照上期载入的 8月31日 58% 与 66%,以及沃什演讲前的约 35%–36%。三期并列,始终未调和。
  • ⊘ 10 月条连续第五期未取得,为本简报持续时间最长的数据缺口。
  • ⊘ 美元:9月1日两条口径为 99.412(−0.29%)与 99.416,对照上期载入的 99.36;而今晨读数为 99.719(+0.05%),被描述为「升至 99.6 上方,延续自 8月21日 98.8 三个月低点以来的反弹」。三条口径的方向一致(走强),数值不一致,并列载入。
  • ⊘ 美股全线下跌:标普 500 收 7,631(−54.56,−0.71%),纳指 26,099(−271.12,−1.03%),道指 52,767(−418.31,−0.79%),VIX 盘中触及 16.80。十年期美债 4.796%(+3.8 个基点);⊘ 另一条口径为 4.756%,并列载入。
  • 美国 8 月非农于 9月4日(周五)发布,预期约 9 万人。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 净方向由上期的「中性」转为「中性偏空」,而且这一次两侧的证据质量不对称。 偏多的一条(RatingDog 超预期)是一份与官方口径相差 1.7 个点的调查;偏空的一条(通胀冲击已被黄金连续两日确认、美元处于反弹高点、9 月加息定价 62%–65%+)是三个互相印证的价格事实。
  • ⚑ 原油对铝仍然是双向的,但权重变了:成本端的利多是渐进的,而估值端的利空是即时的。本简报仍不将其单向计入,但记录这一权重变化(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 供给:本期新增的一条口径,方向是偏空的

  • ⚑ 新增(⊘ 二手来源):截至 2026 年 7 月底,中国氧化铝建成产能 12,095 万吨/年,运行产能 9,590 万吨/年,预计 8 月产量突破 800 万吨。据此推算,开工率约 79.3%,闲置精炼产能约 2,505 万吨/年。
  • ⚑ 这条数字比本简报此前沿用的「建成产能超过 1.1 亿吨」更具体,而且更不利于氧化铝的多头叙事:远期账本上被削减或封顶的五处(俄铝、几内亚、Yarwun、美铝、Alunorte),其合计规模远小于中国国内闲置的 2,505 万吨。闲置产能是所有减产消息的常备答案(此为解读)。
  • 转载:俄铝拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能(占自身 30.7%)及 SUBR 铝土矿——仍为信函中的提议,无时间表、无政府答复,本期仍不计入已发生的供给减量。
  • 转载:几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年(较 2025 年的 1.83 亿吨约 −25%);上半年出口 1.148 亿吨(+15% 同比),七成以上流向中国;力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 因天然气维持 50%。
  • 转载:卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能(约 39 万吨/年);Alba 一至三号系列停产,占产能 19%(约 31.1 万吨/年);EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 恢复至 25%;中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板基本满负荷;欧洲上半年电解铝产量 +4.9% 而氧化铝 −1.8%。

需求:三条腿,但只有一条在 50 之上

  • ⚑ RatingDog 8 月 51.5(7 月 50.9),六个月新高;国家统计局 8 月 49.8(7 月 49.2);铝加工行业 8 月综合 PMI 48.7%(7 月 42.2%)。三条独立调查在同一个月同向改善。
  • ⊘ 但三条中只有 RatingDog 在扩张区间,且它与国家统计局的分歧扩大至 1.7 个点。
  • ⊘ 周度开工率(截至 8月27日)仍为两升一平一降:型材 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。本期无更新。
  • ⚑ 而本期真正的需求证据不在调查里,在价格里:九条现货口径全部跑赢盘面、基差由 −105 修复至零,是下游与贸易环节在更高的价位上接了货(此为解读)。
  • 转载利润口径:1—7 月规模以上工业企业利润 +17.6% 至 4.58 万亿元,其中有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 +91.8%;云铝上半年归母净利 76.84 亿元(+177.61%),中国铝业 118.71 亿元(+67.91%)。

解读

  • ⚑ 本期基本面的净变化仍是正向的,但变化点由「调查」转到了「成交」。 上期的需求证据全部来自问卷;本期最有力的一条来自现货升贴水的实际修复。后者的证据等级更高(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 供给栏本期新增的唯一一条实质数据(中国 2,505 万吨闲置氧化铝产能)是偏空的,且它直接削弱氧化铝夜盘拉升的基本面依据。夜盘的增仓上行是资金事实,不是产能事实(此为解读)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

9月1日成交与情绪

  • 华东:上海现货 24,110(+140),基差为零。价格上行不再由盘面单独带动——现货涨幅(+140)是盘面涨幅(+35)的四倍。
  • 华南:南海(佛山)24,570(+130),南储 24,280(+120);南海−上海价差 460,连续第四日收窄。华南仍是全国最高价区,但溢价在系统性收敛。
  • 华中:中铝华中 23,990(+130),仍为九条口径中最低,但已逼近 24,000 关口。
  • ⚑ 中铝四地连续第二日全部上调,且四条的涨幅(+120 至 +140)全部超过盘面。
  • 出货意愿:由「中性(随行就市)」转为偏弱(惜售),依据是持货商报价涨幅显著超过盘面。采购意愿:由「偏弱」转为中性——在价格上行 140 元的同时基差由 −105 收敛至零,意味着买方在更高的绝对价位上接受了更差的相对价格(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ SMM 的出货/采购情绪指数未取得;上述判断依据价格、涨跌幅与价差行为推断,非 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑ LME 现货结算 3,261.00 美元(+39.00,+1.21%),为 8月17日以来最高。
  • ⚑ 伦敦现货一举站上自身全部六条均线,由六守其三变为六守其六,为本简报所载首次。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比价由 7.4721 回落至 7.3934——伦敦不是跟涨而是领涨,休市造成的算术产物从正确的一侧被消除。
  • ⚑ 伦敦电子盘三个月收 3,272.50 美元(+30.50),高于上期载入的实时报价 3,252.50 美元 20.00 美元。
  • ⚑ 伦敦现货 20 日分位仅 41.4%、60 日分位 36.5%,远低于沪铝的 74.1% 与 89.8%——在自身区间内仍有明显空间。
  • ⚑ 基差由 −105 修复至精确的零,对前月由 −110 收敛至 −15。
  • ⚑ 九条现货口径全部上涨 120 至 150 元,每一条都跑赢盘面 85 至 115 个点;上期「金属拒绝为盘面出价」的读法被证伪。
  • ⚑ 中铝四个地区连续第二日全部上调,且四条涨幅全部超过盘面。
  • ⚑ AL2610 收 24,110,连续第二个交易日为 8月12日以来最高收盘,高于自身全部六条均线 173.00 至 537.17 元。
  • ⚑ 盘中高点 24,145 为 8月14日以来最高印记,已越过上期点名的 8月17日高点 24,135。
  • ⚑ 回撤比例由 33.3% 进一步改善至 27.9%;20 日分位 74.1%,60 日分位 89.8%。
  • ⚑ 前月 AL2609 收 24,125,高于主力 15 元,近端结构仍偏紧。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝夜盘 23:15 单根 15 分钟 K 线内增仓 8,459 手并直线拉升至 2,740——上期指定的「唯一硬指标」给出建仓答案。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝夜盘持仓净增 4,379 手,夜盘成交量 146,291 手大于日盘的 134,185 手。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝夜盘末价 2,718 恰好触及成本口径一,为本轮首次;夜盘高点 2,740 已越过中铝山东报价 2,730。
  • ⚑ AO2610 连续第二个交易日收在 MA20(2,681.30)之上,并收复 MA30(2,684.33),距 MA40 仅 0.95 元。
  • ⚑ RatingDog 8 月制造业 PMI 51.5,高于 51.0 预期与 7 月 50.9,为六个月新高;需求栏获得第三条独立调查。
  • ⚑ 布伦特 +4.60% 至 94.65 美元、WTI +5.20% 至 90.22 美元,两日累计约 +7.4%,能源成本尾部显著加厚。
  • ⚑ 国际能源署将 2026 年全球石油供应下调至 1.02 亿桶/日(同比 −430 万桶/日),能源成本的上行风险被官方口径确认。
  • ⚑ 9 月预焙阳极 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨,石油焦自 9月1日上调,碳素成本继续走强。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝日盘收盘仍低于 2,718 与 2,826.21 两条成本口径 25 与 133.21 元,中铝四地报价仍高于盘面。
  • ⚑ 远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本仍在五处被削减或封顶(俄铝、几内亚、Yarwun、美铝、Alunorte)。
  • ⚑ 卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能、Alba −19%、Alunorte 50%——海外电解与精炼缺口仍在。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性。
  • ⚑ 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 1—7 月利润 +91.8%,政策放松产能天花板的可能性更低。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,725 吨仍为本轮低点,且已由 Westmetall 连续多个交易日零修订核实。
  • ⚑ 保税区库存 116,000 吨(−1,000),外部资源未回流;上期所注册仓单周内 −28,691 吨。
  • ⚑ AD2610 收 23,435(+40),连续第二个交易日高于自身全部六条均线,AD−AL 日盘价差由 680 收窄至 675。
  • ⚑ 铝锭社会库存 837,000 吨口径按构造沿用,连续第八周去库,自 7月23日累计 −169,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 日本季度升水三个季度由 86 美元升至 350–353 美元;美国废铝出口上半年 +21% 至 125 万吨,亚洲实物定价与再生成本仍在高位。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘ LME 的 contango 由 19.00 美元坍缩至精确的零;本简报核实过的记录里只有 8月17日一个先例,其后三个交易日现货下跌 90.00 美元。
  • ⊘ LME 库存 246,725 吨连续第二个交易日零变动,去库不是在放缓,是停了;伦敦本期上涨没有从库存里得到任何新支撑。
  • ⊘ 沪铝盘面本身只涨 35 元(+0.15%),成交量塌了 30.7% 至 135,186 手。
  • ⊘ 持仓仅增 71 手;连续两个上涨交易日合计只增加 689 手净头寸,对照 248,598 手存量可忽略。
  • ⊘ 夜盘全程未越过开盘价,开于日盘收盘的 24,110 即为最高,十五分钟内下挫 130 点,持仓再减 3,270 手。
  • ⊘ 夜盘低点 23,980 与前一夜完全相同,连续两夜同一价位见底,无法区分「被防守」与「挂单」。
  • ⊘ MA60 连续第二个交易日在价格上涨中逆势下行(−2.50,前一日 −6.00),六条均线中最长的一条仍未转向。
  • ⊘ 华南三条价差连续第四个交易日收窄——与基差不同,这条判断本期被强化而非证伪。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝日盘持仓连续第三个交易日下降(−9,878),自 8月27日累计 −136,658 手(−48.6%),日盘资金仍在离场。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝日盘仅涨 6 元,较前结算实际为 −1;差 0.95 元未能收复 MA40,60 日分位仅 24.3%。
  • ⊘ 中铝五地氧化铝报价因需登录未取得,上期判别标准的产业确认一项本期仍无法检验。
  • ⊘ 中国氧化铝建成产能 12,095 万吨/年、运行 9,590 万吨/年,闲置约 2,505 万吨/年,远大于远期账本上被削减的合计规模。
  • ⊘ 8 月中国氧化铝产量预计突破 800 万吨,国内过剩叙事未变。
  • ⊘ RatingDog 51.5 与国家统计局 49.8 相差 1.7 个点,为年内最大;需求栏的三条腿中只有一条在 50 之上。
  • ⊘ 从业人员 48.7、非制造业 49.0、服务业 49.3 均未改善;周度开工率仍为两升一平一降,型材 −0.2。
  • ⊘ 黄金连续第四日下跌(−1.90%),在原油暴涨中未确认避险,通胀冲击的判定已由「主张」变为「确认」——而这一侧对联储不利。
  • ⊘ 9 月加息定价 62% 至「65% 以上」,美元今晨 99.719 为本轮反弹高点,美股三大指数全线下跌,十年期美债升至 4.796%。
  • ⊘ 10 月条连续第五期未取得,联储路径中段仍是盲区;9月4日非农为下一个硬约束。
  • ⊘ 铝棒 143,000 吨仍为近五年同期最高,铸造铝合金 28,100 吨连续第二周加速累库,本期无新数据,风险未解除。
  • ⊘ 国内社会库存本期无新印记,连续第八周去库的说法按构造沿用,未获本期确认。
  • ⊘ 加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,覆盖 300 余项金属产品,铝棒被点名;EGA Al Taweelah 恢复度已由 18% 升至 25%,海外缺口在边际回填。

八 · 一句话观点

上期列出的五项「看不见」的东西在一个交易日内全部变得可见,其中四项朝多头方向落定,而且落定的方式都是可得结果中最强的一种:伦敦复市后不是跟涨而是领涨,现货结算 3,261.00 美元(+39.00,+1.21%)为 8月17日以来最高,一举站上自身全部六条均线(由六守其三变为六守其六,最后也最薄的一条是 MA20 的 11.32 美元),沪伦比价因此由 7.4721 回落至 7.3934,休市造成的算术产物不只是被消除,而是从「伦敦更强」这一侧被消除;基差的结局更彻底——上期把「金属拒绝为盘面出价」称作全期最硬的事实并明确把它交给下一个交易日检验,检验在下一个交易日就跑了,九条现货口径不但全部上涨,而且每一条都跑赢盘面 85 至 115 个点(现货 +120 至 +150 对盘面 +35),于是 105 个点的贴水在一个交易日内被全部填平,精确落在零,对前月由 −110 收敛至 −15,本简报在提出该判断的同一栏目里记录它的证伪;RatingDog 同样朝多头落定,8 月录得 51.5,高于 51.0 预期与 7 月 50.9,为六个月新高,需求栏由此获得第三条腿;而氧化铝夜盘交出了上期关注清单指定的唯一硬指标——它原文写明「能否出现增仓上行,是区分回补与建仓的唯一硬指标」,而 23:15 那一根 15 分钟 K 线内价格由 2,699 直线拉至 2,740、持仓单笔增加 8,459 手,夜盘收于 2,718(恰好等于成本口径一)、持仓净增 4,379 手、成交量 146,291 手大于日盘的 134,185 手,在两次纪录级减仓之后这是建仓,而第五项(中铝五地氧化铝报价)因需登录未取得,本期是「无法检验」而非「未通过」,该判别标准仍形式上半开;对立面条数更少但每一条都具体:沪铝盘面自身只涨 35 元,成交量塌了 30.7%,持仓只增 71 手,连续两个上涨交易日合计仅为 248,598 手的存量增加 689 手净头寸,其夜盘开于日盘收盘的 24,110 即为全程最高、十五分钟内下挫 130 点、持仓再减 3,270 手,并且与前一夜在 23,980 这同一个价位见底,MA60 连续第二个交易日在上涨中逆势下行,华南三条价差连续第四个交易日收窄(与基差不同,这一条本期被强化),LME 库存连续第二个交易日零变动、伦敦的上涨没有从库存里拿到任何新支撑,而 contango 由 19.00 美元坍缩至精确的零——这是全期最不舒服的一条事实,因为本简报自己核实过的 Westmetall 记录中,这样的完全持平只有 8月17日一个先例,其后三个交易日现货下跌了 90.00 美元;宏观则是最清晰的空头栏:布伦特 +4.60% 至 94.65 美元、WTI +5.20% 至 90.22 美元,两日累计约 +7.4%,起因是美军打击拉腊克岛、伊朗反击约旦与阿联酋境内美军基地、以及霍尔木兹海峡内两艘油轮被击中,国际能源署并将 2026 年全球石油供应下调至 1.02 亿桶/日(同比 −430 万桶/日),但黄金连续第四日下跌至 4,396.40 美元(−1.90%),上期把「通胀冲击还是供给冲击」交给黄金去判定并预设了答案,该指标已连续两个交易日给出同一方向,判定由主张升级为确认,而通胀冲击正是把联储放回牌桌的那一侧,9 月加息定价 62% 至「65% 以上」、美元今晨 99.719 为本轮反弹高点;基本面本期唯一的新增实质数据同样偏空——中国氧化铝建成产能 12,095 万吨/年而运行 9,590 万吨/年,闲置约 2,505 万吨,远大于远期账本上五处减量的合计规模,闲置产能是所有减产消息的常备答案;因此本期的结论是:这是本简报一个月来证据质量最好的一个多头交易日,因为伦敦领涨而非跟涨、现货是出价接货而非追价、氧化铝是新资金进场而非旧头寸离场——而铝本身的盘面几乎没有参与,伦敦的曲线走平且有一个不利的先例,伦敦的库存停止去化,宏观路径在一个已被确认而非仍属猜测的方向上变差。多头本期赢的是证据质量,空头本期赢的是联储。

九 · 今日(9月2日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ LME 的 contango 能否离开零,这是本期最重要的单一变量,因为它有一个具体而不利的先例。 8月17日现货与三个月同为 3,272.00 美元,完全持平;其后三个交易日现货跌至 3,182.00 美元,合计 −90.00 美元。今日只有三种结果:曲线转为 backwardation,则近端确实在收紧,伦敦的上涨获得结构确认;曲线重新走阔为 contango,则 9月1日读作一次由资金推动的补涨;曲线继续贴在零附近,则 8月17日的类比将成为可操作的参照。同时关注现货能否守住 MA20(3,249.68 美元)——它只被守住 11.32 美元,是伦敦盘面上最薄的一道。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝夜盘的增仓上行能否在日盘延续,这是本期最有价值的观察点。 夜盘 23:15 单根 K 线增仓 8,459 手、末价 2,718 恰好触及成本口径一。今日的判别很干净:若日盘在 2,718 上方以增仓收盘,则「资金确认」升级为「趋势确认」,且盘面首次站上自身成本线;若日盘回落至 MA20(2,681.30)下方且持仓继续下降,则夜盘那一根应被重新归类为一次单笔的、可能与消息或移仓相关的脉冲。同时关注 MA40(2,693.95)与中铝山东报价 2,730 这两个夜盘已触及、日盘尚未确认的位置。
  • ⚑ 基差能否在零附近站住,而不是立刻回到贴水。 105 个点在一个交易日内填平是本期最强的实物证据,但一日不成模式。若今日现货继续跑赢或与盘面同步、基差维持在 −20 至 +30 之间,则「下游在更高价位接货」被确立;若基差再度扩大至 −50 以下,则 9月1日更可能是一次升贴水的时点修正而非需求改善。同时观察华南三条价差是否连续第五个交易日收窄——该系列至今未被打断。
  • ⚑ 沪铝能否守住夜盘末价 24,080 与 MA20(23,925.75),以及能否挑战 24,170 与 24,290。 上行序列:24,110(日盘收盘,亦为夜盘开盘)→ 24,125(AL2609 收盘)→ 24,130(现货区间上沿)→ 24,145(9月1日高点,8月14日以来最高)→ 24,170(8月14日高点,仅 25 元之遥)→ 24,290(8月12日收盘,20 日收盘区间顶部,仅 180 元之遥)。下行序列:24,080(夜盘末价,今日开盘参考)→ 24,070(结算价)→ 24,037.24(夜盘均价)→ 23,990(中铝华中)→ 23,980(连续两夜的相同低点,这是今日最关键的一道)→ 23,925.75(MA20)→ 23,937.00(MA5,注意 MA5 已高于 MA20)。请继续注意 MA60 连续第二日逆势下行。
  • ⚑ 持仓与成交量,今日在沪铝一端是决定性的。 两个上涨交易日合计只增加 689 手净头寸,而成交量已塌了 30.7%。若今日出现「价格续涨 + 成交与持仓同时回升」,则本简报「盘面未参与」的判断应被修正;若继续「价涨量缩仓平」,则沪铝的上行更多是被伦敦与现货两端拖着走,自身缺乏承接,上方 24,290 之前的空间应相应打折。
  • ⚑ 黄金与美元,这是通胀冲击判定的第三次检验。 黄金已连续四日下跌、连续两日在原油暴涨中不涨。若今日原油续涨而黄金转涨,则该冲击应被重新归类为地缘供给冲击,对铝净偏多;若黄金第五日下跌而美元站稳 99.7 上方,则联储路径将进一步恶化,铝的估值端承压。同时关注 10 月条是否终于可取得——这已是连续第五期缺失。
  • ⚑ 库存与数据日历:LME 库存能否离开 246,725 吨,以及本周四的国内社会库存印记。 伦敦库存已连续两个交易日零变动,四个交易日合计只减少 200 吨;若今日出现净增,则「海外去库结束」将由停滞升级为反转。国内一端本期没有新印记,周四的 SMM 数据是对「连续第八周去库」这一按构造沿用的说法的第一次真实检验,同时也是对铝棒 143,000 吨(近五年同期最高)与铸造铝合金 28,100 吨连续加速累库这两条风险的第一次更新。9月4日美国非农(预期约 9 万人)为本周最后一道硬约束。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

  • Written the morning of Wednesday, September 2, BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open.
  • ⚑ The prior edition listed five things it could not see. All five became visible in one session, and four of the five resolved bullish. This edition carries the complete September 1 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards; London’s first price since August 28, with Westmetall’s own table now carrying the row; and a live quote for the September 1 night session, which belongs to the September 2 trading day, closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning, and contains the single most important tick in the edition.
  • ⚑ Method: SHFE averages are computed exactly from the exchange’s published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series across 216 trading days; London’s averages from 67 cash settlements. Before any September 1 value was computed, both series were used to re-derive the prior edition — all EIGHTEEN published SHFE averages for August 31 and all six LME cash averages for August 28 were reproduced exactly.
  • ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and its regional transaction premia for September 1; the Shanghai Huatong caliber; SMM’s alumina spot assessments and Chalco’s five regional alumina listings (login-walled, carried at August 27 — so the prior watchlist’s second alumina condition is UNTESTABLE this edition rather than failed, and that distinction is load-bearing); SHFE complex open interest and daily warrant tonnages; a new social inventory print (SMM publishes Monday and Thursday, and September 1 was a Tuesday); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a FIFTH consecutive edition.

⚑ LME: London reopened and led rather than followed — and cleared all six averages

  • ⚑ Cash settled $3,261.00, +$39.00 (+1.21%); 3M settled $3,261.00, +$20.00. This is the highest cash settlement since August 17’s $3,272.00.
  • ⚑ Averages (exact): MA5 $3,222.20, MA10 $3,214.60, MA20 $3,249.68, MA30 $3,233.22, MA40 $3,212.99, MA60 $3,238.98. Cash is above ALL SIX by $38.80, $46.40, $11.32, $27.78, $48.01 and $22.02 — up from three of six. This is the first time in this brief’s run that London has cleared every one of its own averages.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +$9.10, MA30 +$3.50, MA40 +$3.90, while MA10 −$1.10 and MA60 −$6.81, and MA20 barely moved at +$0.06. The MA20 reclaim was therefore made by price rather than conceded by a falling average (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio fell from 7.4721 to 7.3934 (24,110 ÷ $3,261.00). The prior edition warned that 7.4721 was a one-sided arithmetic product. London did not merely restore the denominator — it beat the numerator. That is the strongest available outcome.
  • ⊘ But the contango collapsed from $19.00 to EXACTLY ZERO — cash and 3M both $3,261.00. This brief’s Westmetall-verified record contains one precedent for a dead-flat London curve: August 17, cash equal to 3M at $3,272.00. Cash then fell to $3,182.00 in three sessions, −$90.00.
  • ⊘ LME stocks 246,725 mt, unchanged for a SECOND consecutive session. The post-August-19 sequence reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 — 200 mt across four sessions. The draw is not slowing; it has stopped.
  • ⚑ One positional comparison deserves its own line: LME cash percentiles are 41.4% (20-session) and 36.5% (60-session), against SHFE’s 74.1% and 89.8%. Within their own ranges, London sits far below Shanghai — which is simultaneously the room in the ratio and one of the edition’s most direct bullish arguments (derivation).
  • ⊘ A second London caliber must be listed alongside: cnal carries the September 1 electronic 3M close at $3,272.50 (+$30.50), $20.00 above the live 08:50 quote of $3,252.50 the prior edition carried. It is not the same caliber as Westmetall’s $3,261.00 settlement. Both listed, NOT reconciled.

⚑ SHFE: a second consecutive highest-close-since-August-12 — on a board that added only 35

  • AL2610 (main contract): open 24,085, high 24,145, low 23,980, close 24,110, settlement 24,070, prior settlement 23,960. Close-to-close +35 (+0.15%); against prior settlement +150 (+0.63%). Volume 135,186 (−30.7%); OI 248,598 (+71).
  • ⚑ The high of 24,145 is the highest intraday print since August 14’s 24,170, and it cleared the August 17 high of 24,135 that the prior edition named as the nearest level above.
  • ⚑ Moving averages (exact): MA5 23,937.00, MA10 23,818.50, MA20 23,925.75, MA30 23,760.17, MA40 23,608.12, MA60 23,572.83. The close is above ALL SIX by 173.00, 291.50, 184.25, 349.83, 501.88 and 537.17.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +71.00, MA10 +15.50, MA20 +15.00, MA30 +32.00, MA40 +27.74 — and MA60 FELL 2.50 for a second consecutive session.
  • ⚑ The 20-session close percentile rose from 69.1% to 74.1%; the 60-session from 87.9% to 89.8%. The retracement of the August 3–12 advance improved again, 33.3% → 27.9% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290, advance 645; the close is 180 below the peak and 465 above the launch).
  • ⚑ Front-month AL2609 closed 24,125, 15 ABOVE the main contract; AL2611 closed level at 24,110; AL2612 at 24,075.

Interpretation: three internal facts say the board itself did not participate

  • ⊘ First, volume collapsed 30.7% to 135,186 while open interest added 71 lots. Two consecutive up sessions have now added 689 lots of net position to a 248,598-lot book.
  • ⊘ Second, the night session never traded above its open. AL2610 opened at 24,110 — exactly the day close — printed 24,110 as its high, fell 130 points to 23,980 inside fifteen minutes, and ground back to 24,080. VWAP 24,037.24; OI 245,328 (−3,270).
  • ⊘ Third, that night low of 23,980 is the identical tick to the previous night’s low. Two consecutive night sessions bottoming at the same price is either a defended level or a resting order. This brief cannot distinguish the two and says so (interpretation).

⚑ The September 1 night session (trading day September 2) — the edition’s most important tick is in alumina

  • AL2610: open 24,110, high 24,110, low 23,980, last 24,080, VWAP 24,037.24, volume 61,647, OI 245,328 (−3,270). ⊘ The snapshot caliber reads the last print as 24,075, one tick below the 15-minute series’ 24,080; both listed.
  • ⚑ AO2610: open 2,693, high 2,740, low 2,684, last 2,718, VWAP 2,716.27, volume 146,291, OI 148,671 — up 4,379 against the day session’s 144,292.
  • ⚑ The shape is the point. In the 23:15 fifteen-minute bar the price went vertical from 2,699 to a 2,740 high while open interest jumped from 143,686 to 152,145 — up 8,459 lots in a single bar. The prior watchlist said in terms that “whether a rise can occur on RISING open interest is the only hard discriminator between covering and accumulation.” The answer has now been given.
  • ⚑ The last print of 2,718 is EXACTLY cost caliber one, reached for the first time in this sequence; the night high of 2,740 also cleared Chalco’s Shandong listing of 2,730. Night volume of 146,291 exceeded the day session’s 134,185.
  • AD2610: open 23,360, high 23,465, low 23,280, last 23,355, VWAP 23,355.96, volume 1,836, OI 6,621 (−160). The AD−AL spread re-widened from the day’s 675 to 725 overnight.
  • ⊘ These are live session quotes, not settlements, and will be restated from the exchange file tomorrow.

⚑ Alumina day session: MA20 held a second time, MA40 missed by 0.95, and open interest fell a third time

  • AO2610: open 2,690, high 2,699, low 2,668, close 2,693, settlement 2,683, prior settlement 2,684; +6 (+0.22%) close-to-close and −1 against the prior settlement. Volume 134,185; OI 144,292 (−9,878).
  • ⚑ Moving averages: MA5 2,656.00, MA10 2,667.50, MA20 2,681.30, MA30 2,684.33, MA40 2,693.95, MA60 2,747.10. The close is above the first four (by 37.00, 25.50, 11.70 and 8.67), below MA40 by only 0.95 and below MA60 by 54.10.
  • ⚑ MA20 held for a SECOND consecutive session, passing the first condition of the prior watchlist’s discriminating test. ⊘ The second condition — Chalco’s five regional listings — was login-walled, so it is UNTESTABLE this edition and must not be recorded as failed.
  • ⊘ Day-session open interest fell for a third consecutive session. From August 27’s 280,950 the sequence reads 228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292: −136,658 lots, or −48.6% of the book in three sessions. Day-session money is still leaving; the accumulation happened overnight.
  • Percentiles rose from 64.6%/22.5% to 69.9%/24.3%. The day close remains 25 and 133.21 below the two cost calibers of 2,718 and 2,826.21 — though the night’s last print reached the first of them exactly.
  • AO2609 closed 2,668 and AO2611 2,702; the curve remains in contango.
  • AD2610 closed 23,435 (+40, +0.17%), settlement 23,380, OI 6,781 (−429), above ALL SIX of its averages for a second session (MA5 23,282.00, MA10 23,143.00, MA20 23,271.50, MA30 23,230.00, MA40 23,159.00, MA60 23,102.67). The AD−AL discount narrowed 680 → 675.

⚑ September 1 spot: all nine calibers rose, and this time all nine BEAT the board

  • Shanghai spot 24,110 (+140, range 24,090–24,130); Changjiang 24,110 (+150, range 24,090–24,130); Zhongyuan 24,110 (+150); Nanhai/Foshan 24,570 (+130, range 24,520–24,620); Nanhai’s own Shanghai A00 caliber 24,160 (+140, range 24,110–24,210); Guangdong Nanchu 24,280 (+120, range 24,250–24,310).
  • ⚑ Chalco raised all four regions for a second consecutive session: East China 24,110 (+140), South China 24,280 (+120), Southwest 24,130 (+130), Central China 23,990 (+130).
  • ⚑ The nine gains span +120 to +150 against a board that added +35. Every one beat the board, by between 85 and 115 points.
  • ⚑ The basis therefore repaired from −105 to EXACTLY ZERO (Shanghai spot 24,110 against AL2610’s close of 24,110), and from −110 to −15 against the front-month AL2609 close of 24,125.
  • ⚑ Spreads: Nanhai−Shanghai 460 (from 470), Nanchu−Shanghai 170 (from 190), Chalco South−East 170 (from 190) — all three narrower for a FOURTH consecutive session.
  • ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong caliber, SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and SMM’s regional transaction premia were all not retrievable for September 1.

Interpretation: this brief records the falsification of its own reading in one session

  • ⚑ The prior edition called “metal refuses to bid for the board” the hardest fact in the edition and offered it explicitly as a pattern the next session would test. The test ran on the next session and the result was the reverse. It is recorded here in the same column that made the claim (interpretation).
  • ⊘ But it must be equally clear that only the basis reading was falsified. The companion reading — that South China’s structural tightness has faded — was NOT falsified; it was reinforced, with all three spreads narrowing for a fourth consecutive session. Two judgements from the same column resolved in opposite directions, and this brief does not bundle them.

Secondary aluminium, alumina and cost items

  • Carried: ADC12 23,900 with a 300 premium over A00; scrap 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Port Klang FOB $3,090; secondary operating rate 49.1%. ⊘ Note that A00 has now risen to 24,110, so a carried ADC12 of 23,900 would imply the premium has flipped to a 210 DISCOUNT — but ADC12 is a carried value and this brief does not compute a new spread from it.
  • Carried: SMM alumina index 2,676 (August 27); Chalco’s five regional listings — Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660. ⚑ The night high of 2,740 cleared Shandong’s 2,730; the night’s last print of 2,718 remains below all but Guangxi.
  • Carried: September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance, with petroleum coke rising from September 1; Guinean bauxite FOB $38–42, CIF $70–74; Japan MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10).
  • ⚑ Crude rose for a second consecutive session and by a larger margin. The energy leg and the carbon leg of smelter cost are both firming in the same week.

3 · Inventory

Ingot: no new domestic print — and London’s draw stopped

  • ⊘ There is no new social inventory figure this edition. SMM publishes on Mondays and Thursdays, and September 1 was a Tuesday. The prior edition’s 837,000 mt (−15,000 w/w, read as an eighth consecutive draw and a cumulative −169,000 mt from July 23) is carried by construction, and its reference date is still not stated.
  • ⊘ LME stocks 246,725 mt, unchanged for a second consecutive session. Since the 35-day draw ended on August 19 the full sequence reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 — a total of 200 mt across four sessions.
  • Carried: SHFE weekly warehouse inventory 391,498 mt (August 28), −12,299 w/w; registered warrants 245,510 mt (−28,691); bonded 116,000 mt (−1,000); SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827).
  • ⊘ Billet 143,000 mt (a five-year high for the period) and cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500, a second and accelerating build) are both carried. There is no new data on either, so the risk is neither confirmed nor removed.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net change in the inventory column is: no new information domestically, and a deterioration overseas from “drawing slowly” to “not drawing”. The latter is one of the few physical indicators that unambiguously worsened this edition.
  • ⊘ It must be read against the price: London cash rose $39.00 while stocks did not move at all. The advance took no new support from inventory — it took it from the curve and from positioning (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ RatingDog at 51.5 — a beat and a six-month high, and its gap to the NBS widened to 1.7 points

  • ⚑ The RatingDog manufacturing PMI (compiled by S&P Global, the former Caixin caliber) printed 51.5 for August, above the 51.0 consensus and July’s 50.9, and the highest in six months. The prior edition flagged it as publishing after its cut-off and declined to carry it. It is now confirmed, and it beat.
  • ⊘ But it now disagrees with the NBS 49.8 by 1.7 points, the widest divergence this brief has recorded. Two surveys of the same month say, respectively, that Chinese manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in six months and that it contracted for a second consecutive month. Both are listed, neither is reconciled, and neither substitutes for the other.
  • ⚑ The demand column therefore has a third leg: NBS 49.8, aluminium processing PMI 48.7%, RatingDog 51.5. ⊘ But only one of the three is above fifty, and the divergence falls precisely along the large-enterprise versus small-and-mid-sized fault line this brief has named before (interpretation).

⚑ Crude rose a second day and violently; gold fell for a fourth

  • ⚑ Brent settled $94.65 (+$4.16, +4.60%) and WTI $90.22 (+$4.46, +5.20%). The two-session Brent gain is roughly +7.4%. ⊘ A separate caliber has Brent at $95.20 (+4.98% over 24 hours); both listed, not reconciled.
  • ⚑ The drivers: US strikes on Iranian troops on Larak Island, Iranian retaliation against US bases in Jordan and the UAE, and two oil tankers — one Saudi-flagged, one South Korean-owned — struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz within minutes of each other, with no casualties reported. A separate report describes fresh US strikes around the strait on September 1.
  • ⚑ NEW SUPPLY CALIBER: the IEA cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast to 102 million barrels per day in August, down 4.3 million b/d on the year, citing the breakdown of the ceasefire and a renewed closure of the strait. ⊘ A separate tracker describes the strait as closed to commercial shipping on day 185; secondary source.
  • ⚑ Gold: $4,396.40 (−$85.10, −1.90%) on one caliber and $4,358.74 (−1.86%) on another. ⊘ The two disagree on the prior close as well as the level; both listed. This is a FOURTH consecutive declining session.
  • ⚑ The determination is now complete. The prior edition handed the question — is this an inflation shock or a supply shock? — to gold, and stated its expected answer. The discriminator has now answered twice in the same direction: crude up hard, gold down hard. The reading is upgraded from assertion to CONFIRMED (interpretation) — and the inflation side is the one that puts the Fed back in play.

⊘ The Fed and the dollar: a third edition of unreconciled calibers, and a dollar at the high of its rebound

  • ⊘ Odds of a 25bp September hike: 62% on a September 1 caliber and “more than 65%” on a September 2 caliber, against the 58% and 66% carried for August 31 and roughly 35–36% pre-Warsh. Three editions running, listed and never reconciled.
  • ⊘ The October strip is absent for a FIFTH consecutive edition — this brief’s longest-running data gap.
  • ⊘ The dollar: two September 1 calibers read 99.412 (−0.29%) and 99.416 against the 99.36 carried; this morning’s reading is 99.719 (+0.05%), described as rising above 99.6 and extending the rebound from August 21’s three-month low of 98.8. The three calibers agree on direction (firmer) and disagree on level; all listed.
  • ⊘ US equities fell across the board: S&P 500 7,631 (−54.56, −0.71%), Nasdaq 26,099 (−271.12, −1.03%), Dow 52,767 (−418.31, −0.79%), with the VIX at 16.80 intraday. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.796% (+3.8bp); ⊘ a second caliber reads 4.756%, listed alongside.
  • US August payrolls publish Friday, September 4, at roughly 90,000.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ The net moves from the prior edition’s NEUTRAL to neutral-to-BEARISH, and this time the evidence on the two sides is asymmetric in quality. The bullish item — RatingDog’s beat — is a survey that disagrees with the official survey by 1.7 points. The bearish items — an inflation shock now confirmed by gold across two sessions, a dollar at the high of its rebound, and September pricing at 62% to above 65% — are three mutually corroborating price facts.
  • ⚑ Crude still cuts both ways for aluminium, but the weighting has changed: the cost-side benefit is gradual while the valuation-side damage is immediate. This brief still does not book it in one direction, but it records the shift (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Supply: the one new caliber this edition is bearish

  • ⚑ NEW (⊘ secondary source): as of end-July 2026, China’s BUILT alumina capacity is 120.95 million mt/yr against OPERATING capacity of 95.90 million mt/yr, with August output expected to exceed 8 million mt. That implies a utilisation rate of about 79.3% and roughly 25.05 million mt/yr of IDLE refining capacity.
  • ⚑ This figure is more specific than the “over 110 million mt” this brief has been carrying, and it is considerably less friendly to the alumina bull case: the five places where the forward book is cut or capped (RUSAL, Guinea, Yarwun, Alcoa, Alunorte) sum to far less than 25 million mt. Idle capacity is the standing answer to every production-cut headline (interpretation).
  • Carried: RUSAL’s proposal to mothball 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity (30.7% of its own) plus the SUBR bauxite mine — still a proposal in a letter, no timeline, no government answer, still NOT booked here as a realised reduction.
  • Carried: Guinea’s export cap target of roughly 150 million mt/yr (about −25% against 2025’s 183 million mt), with H1 exports of 114.8 million mt (+15% y/y) and more than 70% going to China; Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cut of 1.2 mtpa from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200–300 kt; Alunorte held at 50% on gas.
  • Carried: Qatalum at roughly 60% of nameplate (~390 kt/yr); Alba lines 1–3 down, 19% of capacity (~311 kt/yr); EGA’s Al Taweelah at 25% restarted from 18%; China’s smelter operating rate 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling; Europe’s H1 aluminium output +4.9% against alumina −1.8%.

Demand: three legs, but only one above fifty

  • ⚑ RatingDog August 51.5 (July 50.9), a six-month high; NBS August 49.8 (July 49.2); the aluminium processing composite PMI 48.7% (July 42.2%). Three independent surveys improved in the same month and in the same direction.
  • ⊘ But only RatingDog is in expansion, and its gap to the NBS widened to 1.7 points.
  • ⊘ The weekly operating rates through August 27 are unchanged and still two up, one flat, one down: extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). No update this edition.
  • ⚑ The strongest demand evidence this edition is not in a survey at all — it is in a price. All nine spot calibers beat the board and the basis repaired from −105 to zero, which is downstream and trade buyers taking metal at a higher absolute level and a worse relative one (interpretation).
  • Carried profit calibers: January–July industrial profits +17.6% to 4.58 trillion yuan, with non-ferrous smelting and rolling +91.8%; Yunnan Aluminium H1 net profit 7.684 billion yuan (+177.61%); Chalco 11.871 billion (+67.91%).

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The net change in fundamentals is again positive, but the locus moved from surveys to transactions. The prior edition’s demand evidence was entirely questionnaire-based; this edition’s strongest item is an actual repair in the physical premium, which is a higher grade of evidence (interpretation).
  • ⊘ The only new hard supply number this edition — China’s 25 million mt of idle alumina refining capacity — is bearish, and it directly weakens the fundamental case behind alumina’s overnight surge. That surge is a positioning fact, not a capacity fact (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

September 1 transactions and sentiment

  • East China: Shanghai spot 24,110 (+140), basis zero. The move was no longer led by the board alone — spot’s +140 is four times the board’s +35.
  • South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,570 (+130), Nanchu 24,280 (+120); the Nanhai−Shanghai spread at 460, narrower for a fourth consecutive session. South China is still the highest-priced region in the country, but its premium is compressing systematically.
  • Central China: Chalco Central China 23,990 (+130) — still the lowest of the nine calibers, but now within 10 of the 24,000 handle.
  • ⚑ Chalco raised all four regions for a second consecutive session, and all four gains (+120 to +140) exceeded the board’s.
  • Shipment willingness: moves from NEUTRAL (repricing with the market) to WEAK-ish (holders reluctant to sell), inferred from quotations rising materially faster than the board. Purchasing willingness: moves from WEAK to NEUTRAL — buyers accepted a worse relative price at a 140-yuan higher absolute one, which is what a basis moving from −105 to zero means (interpretation).
  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable; the above is inferred from price, magnitude and spread behaviour, and is not an SMM index.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑ LME cash settled $3,261.00 (+$39.00, +1.21%), the highest since August 17.
  • ⚑ London cash cleared ALL SIX of its own moving averages, from three of six — the first time in this brief’s run.
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio fell from 7.4721 to 7.3934: London led rather than followed, and the holiday artefact was retired from the favourable side.
  • ⚑ The electronic 3M close of $3,272.50 (+$30.50) exceeded by $20.00 the live quote of $3,252.50 the prior edition carried.
  • ⚑ LME cash sits at only the 41.4th and 36.5th percentiles of its own 20- and 60-session ranges against SHFE’s 74.1% and 89.8% — London retains materially more room.
  • ⚑ The basis repaired from −105 to exactly zero, and from −110 to −15 against the front month.
  • ⚑ All nine spot calibers rose 120 to 150 and every one beat the board by 85 to 115 points; the prior edition’s “metal refuses to bid” reading was falsified.
  • ⚑ Chalco raised all four regions for a second consecutive session, all four gains exceeding the board’s.
  • ⚑ AL2610 closed 24,110, a second consecutive highest-close-since-August-12, above all six averages by 173.00 to 537.17.
  • ⚑ The intraday high of 24,145 is the highest print since August 14 and cleared the August 17 high the prior edition named.
  • ⚑ The retracement improved further from 33.3% to 27.9%; percentiles 74.1% and 89.8%.
  • ⚑ Front-month AL2609 closed 24,125, 15 above the main contract — the nearby structure remains firm.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s night session added 8,459 lots of open interest inside the 23:15 bar while going vertical to 2,740 — the “only hard discriminator” the prior watchlist named, answered as accumulation.
  • ⚑ Alumina night open interest closed +4,379 on the day-session book, and night volume of 146,291 exceeded the day’s 134,185.
  • ⚑ The alumina night’s last print of 2,718 reached cost caliber one exactly for the first time in this sequence; the night high of 2,740 cleared Chalco’s Shandong listing of 2,730.
  • ⚑ AO2610 closed above MA20 (2,681.30) for a second consecutive session and reclaimed MA30 (2,684.33), finishing only 0.95 below MA40.
  • ⚑ RatingDog’s August manufacturing PMI at 51.5 beat the 51.0 consensus and July’s 50.9 and is a six-month high, giving the demand column a third independent survey.
  • ⚑ Brent +4.60% to $94.65 and WTI +5.20% to $90.22, roughly +7.4% across two sessions — the energy cost tail thickened materially.
  • ⚑ The IEA cut 2026 global oil supply to 102 million b/d (−4.3 million b/d y/y), putting an official caliber behind the energy cost risk.
  • ⚑ September prebaked anode at 5,730 yuan/mt (5,745 on acceptance) with petroleum coke rising from September 1 — the carbon cost leg keeps firming.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s day close remains 25 and 133.21 below the two cost calibers, and four of Chalco’s five regional listings remain above the board.
  • ⚑ The forward alumina and bauxite book is still cut or capped in five places (RUSAL, Guinea, Yarwun, Alcoa, Alunorte).
  • ⚑ Qatalum at ~60% of nameplate, Alba −19%, Alunorte at 50% — the overseas smelting and refining gaps persist.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate of 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling leaves no domestic supply elasticity.
  • ⚑ Non-ferrous smelting and rolling profits +91.8% for January–July make a relaxation of the capacity ceiling less likely, not more.
  • ⚑ LME stocks of 246,725 mt remain the low of the run, verified across consecutive Westmetall sessions with zero revisions.
  • ⚑ Bonded stocks 116,000 mt (−1,000) — external material is not returning; SHFE registered warrants fell 28,691 on the week.
  • ⚑ AD2610 closed 23,435 (+40) above all six of its averages for a second session, with the AD−AL discount narrowing 680 → 675.
  • ⚑ Social inventory of 837,000 mt is carried as an eighth consecutive draw, cumulative −169,000 mt from July 23.
  • ⚑ Japan’s quarterly premium has risen from $86 to $350–353 across three quarters, and US scrap exports +21% in H1 to 1.25 million mt keep Asian physical pricing and secondary cost elevated.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘ The LME contango collapsed from $19.00 to exactly zero; this brief’s verified record contains one precedent, August 17, after which cash fell $90.00 in three sessions.
  • ⊘ LME stocks were unchanged at 246,725 mt for a second consecutive session — the draw has stopped, not slowed — so London’s advance took no new support from inventory.
  • ⊘ The SHFE board itself added only 35 (+0.15%) with volume collapsing 30.7% to 135,186.
  • ⊘ Open interest rose just 71 lots; two consecutive up sessions have added only 689 lots of net position to a 248,598-lot book.
  • ⊘ The night session never traded above its open, printing its 24,110 open as its high, falling 130 inside fifteen minutes, with open interest down a further 3,270.
  • ⊘ The night low of 23,980 is the identical tick to the previous night’s low; two nights bottoming at the same price cannot be distinguished from a resting order.
  • ⊘ MA60 fell for a second consecutive session while price rose (−2.50 after −6.00) — the longest average still has not turned.
  • ⊘ The three South China spreads narrowed for a FOURTH consecutive session; unlike the basis reading, this judgement was reinforced rather than falsified.
  • ⊘ Alumina day-session open interest fell for a third consecutive session (−9,878), a cumulative −136,658 (−48.6%) from August 27 — day-session money is still leaving.
  • ⊘ Alumina’s day session added only 6 and was actually −1 against the prior settlement, missed MA40 by 0.95, and sits at only the 24.3rd 60-session percentile.
  • ⊘ Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were login-walled, so the industry-confirmation half of the prior test remains untested for a second consecutive edition.
  • ⊘ China’s built alumina capacity of 120.95 million mt/yr against 95.90 million operating leaves roughly 25 million mt idle — far larger than the sum of every cut in the forward book.
  • ⊘ China’s August alumina output is expected to exceed 8 million mt; the domestic surplus narrative is unchanged.
  • ⊘ RatingDog’s 51.5 disagrees with the NBS 49.8 by 1.7 points, the widest of the year, and only one of the demand column’s three legs is above fifty.
  • ⊘ Employment at 48.7, non-manufacturing at 49.0 and services at 49.3 all failed to improve; weekly operating rates remain two up, one flat, one down with extrusion at −0.2pp.
  • ⊘ Gold fell for a fourth consecutive session (−1.90%) and did not bid a haven into a violent crude rally — the inflation-shock reading is now CONFIRMED, and that side is bad for the Fed path.
  • ⊘ September hike pricing sits at 62% to above 65%, the dollar is 99.719 this morning at the high of its rebound, all three US equity indices fell and the 10-year rose to 4.796%.
  • ⊘ The October strip is absent for a fifth consecutive edition; Friday’s payrolls at roughly 90,000 is the week’s last hard constraint.
  • ⊘ Billet at 143,000 mt remains a five-year high for the period and cast alloy at 28,100 mt built for a second accelerating week, with no new data to resolve either.
  • ⊘ There is no new domestic social inventory print; the eighth consecutive draw is carried by construction and was not confirmed this edition.
  • ⊘ Canada’s September 8 counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% across more than 300 metals products with aluminium bars named, and EGA’s Al Taweelah has moved from 18% to 25% — the overseas gap is being refilled at the margin.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The prior edition listed five things it could not see, all five became visible in one session, four of the five resolved bullish, and each of those four resolved in the strongest form available: London reopened and led rather than followed, cash settling $3,261.00 (+$39.00, +1.21%) for its highest since August 17 and clearing ALL SIX of its own moving averages after holding only three — the last and thinnest being MA20 by $11.32 — so the SHFE-LME ratio fell from 7.4721 to 7.3934 and the holiday artefact was retired not merely as arithmetic but from the side that says London was the stronger market; the basis resolved even more completely, because the prior edition called “metal refuses to bid for the board” the hardest fact it carried and handed it explicitly to the next session as a testable pattern, and the next session destroyed it — all nine spot calibers rose again and this time every single one BEAT the board, spot adding 120 to 150 against a board that added 35, so the entire 105-point discount was filled in one session and landed at exactly zero, and at −15 against the front month, with this brief recording the falsification of its own reading in the same column that made the claim; RatingDog resolved bullish too at 51.5 against 51.0 expected and July’s 50.9, a six-month high that gives the demand column a third leg; and alumina’s night session delivered the one observation the prior watchlist singled out as decisive, having said in terms that a rise on RISING open interest was “the only hard discriminator between covering and accumulation” — at 23:15 AO2610 went vertical from 2,699 to 2,740 with open interest jumping 8,459 lots inside a single fifteen-minute bar, the night closing at 2,718, exactly cost caliber one, on open interest up 4,379 and night volume of 146,291 exceeding the day session’s 134,185, which after two record liquidations is accumulation, while the fifth item, Chalco’s five regional alumina listings, was login-walled and is therefore UNTESTABLE rather than failed, leaving that test formally half-open; the opposing column has fewer items but each is specific, because the SHFE board itself added only 35 points on volume down 30.7% and open interest up 71 lots so that two up sessions have added just 689 lots of net position to a 248,598-lot book, its night session opened at the day close of 24,110, printed that as its high, fell 130 inside fifteen minutes on open interest down another 3,270 and bottomed at 23,980, the identical tick to the night before, MA60 fell for a second consecutive session while price rose, the three South China spreads narrowed for a fourth consecutive session so that companion reading was reinforced rather than falsified, LME stocks were unchanged for a second session so London’s advance took no support from inventory, and the contango collapsed from $19.00 to exactly zero, which is the edition’s most uncomfortable fact because this brief’s own Westmetall-verified record contains precisely one dead-flat precedent, August 17 at $3,272.00, after which cash fell $90.00 in three sessions; macro is the clearest bear column, with Brent +4.60% to $94.65 and WTI +5.20% to $90.22 for roughly +7.4% across two sessions on US strikes at Larak Island, Iranian retaliation against bases in Jordan and the UAE and two tankers struck in the strait, and with the IEA cutting 2026 global oil supply to 102 million b/d, down 4.3 million on the year — yet gold fell for a fourth consecutive session to $4,396.40 (−1.90%), and since the prior edition handed the inflation-shock-versus-supply-shock question to gold and stated its expected answer, the discriminator has now answered twice in the same direction and the reading is upgraded from assertion to confirmed, which is the side that puts the Fed back in play at 62% to above 65% with the dollar at 99.719 this morning at the high of its rebound; the only new hard fundamental number is also bearish, China’s built alumina capacity of 120.95 million mt/yr against 95.90 million operating leaving roughly 25 million mt idle, far larger than every cut in the forward book combined; so the conclusion is that this is the best-corroborated bullish session this brief has carried in a month — London led instead of followed, the physical bid for metal instead of chasing it, and alumina rose on new money instead of departing money — while aluminium’s own board barely participated, its London curve went flat with one bad precedent, its London stocks stopped drawing, and the macro path worsened in a direction that is now confirmed rather than merely suspected: the bulls won evidence quality this edition, and the bears won the Fed.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (September 2) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether the LME contango leaves zero — today’s single most important variable, because it has a specific and unfavourable precedent. On August 17 cash and 3M were both $3,272.00, dead flat; cash then fell to $3,182.00 across the next three sessions, −$90.00. There are three outcomes: the curve flips into backwardation, which confirms genuine nearby tightening and ratifies London’s advance structurally; it widens back into contango, which reclassifies September 1 as a positioning-driven catch-up; or it stays pinned near zero, which makes the August 17 analogy an operative reference rather than a footnote. Watch alongside it whether cash holds MA20 at $3,249.68 — a clearance of only $11.32 and the thinnest on the London board.
  • ⚑ Whether alumina’s overnight accumulation carries into the day session — the edition’s most valuable observation point. The 23:15 bar added 8,459 lots of open interest and the night’s last print of 2,718 touched cost caliber one exactly. The test is clean: a day-session close above 2,718 on RISING open interest upgrades “positioning confirmation” to trend confirmation and puts the board above its own cost line for the first time; a fall back below MA20 (2,681.30) on further open-interest decline reclassifies the overnight bar as a single impulse possibly tied to a headline or a roll. Watch MA40 (2,693.95) and Chalco’s Shandong listing of 2,730 — both touched overnight, neither confirmed in daylight.
  • ⚑ Whether the basis holds near zero rather than reverting straight to a discount. Filling 105 points in one session is the strongest physical evidence in the edition, but one session is not a pattern. If spot again matches or beats the board and the basis stays between −20 and +30, “downstream is taking metal at higher levels” is established; if it widens back beyond −50, September 1 is better read as a timing correction in the premium than as improving demand. Watch whether the three South China spreads narrow for a FIFTH consecutive session — that series has not yet been broken.
  • ⚑ Whether SHFE holds the night’s 24,080 and MA20 (23,925.75), and whether it can attack 24,170 and 24,290. Upside sequence: 24,110 (the day close, and the night open) → 24,125 (AL2609 close) → 24,130 (top of the spot ranges) → 24,145 (the September 1 high, the highest since August 14) → 24,170 (the August 14 high, only 25 away) → 24,290 (the August 12 close and the twenty-session close top, only 180 away). Downside: 24,080 (the night’s last print, today’s opening reference) → 24,070 (settlement) → 24,037.24 (night VWAP) → 23,990 (Chalco Central China) → 23,980 (the identical low of two consecutive night sessions — today’s most important level) → 23,925.75 (MA20) → 23,937.00 (MA5, which now sits ABOVE MA20). Note that MA60 has fallen for two consecutive sessions.
  • ⚑ Open interest and volume, which are decisive on the aluminium board specifically. Two up sessions have added just 689 lots of net position while volume has collapsed 30.7%. If today produces a further advance with volume AND open interest both recovering, this edition’s “the board did not participate” judgement should be revised; if price rises again on shrinking volume and flat open interest, aluminium is being dragged higher by London and the physical rather than bid for on its own, and the room to 24,290 should be discounted accordingly.
  • ⚑ Gold and the dollar — the third test of the inflation-shock determination. Gold has now fallen four sessions running and has failed to bid on two consecutive violent crude rallies. If crude extends today and gold turns higher, the shock should be reclassified as geopolitical supply and read net bullish for aluminium; if gold falls a fifth time while the dollar holds above 99.7, the Fed path deteriorates further and aluminium’s valuation leg takes the strain. Watch alongside it whether the October strip finally becomes retrievable after five consecutive absences.
  • ⚑ Inventory and the data calendar: whether LME stocks leave 246,725 mt, and Thursday’s domestic social inventory print. London’s stocks have been unchanged for two sessions and have fallen only 200 mt across four; a net build today would upgrade “the overseas draw has stopped” to “the overseas draw has reversed”. Domestically there is no new print this edition, so Thursday’s SMM figure is the first genuine test of the eighth-consecutive-draw claim this brief is currently carrying by construction, and it is also the first update on the two unresolved risks — billet at 143,000 mt, a five-year high for the period, and cast alloy at 28,100 mt building for a second accelerating week. US August payrolls on September 4 at roughly 90,000 is the week’s final hard constraint.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源、尚未执行的提议或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变的数据。本期特别提示:夜盘数据为实时报价而非结算价,将于明日由交易所文件重述;中铝五地氧化铝报价因需登录未取得,上期判别标准的第二项本期为「无法检验」而非「未通过」;本期无新的国内社会库存印记,连续第八周去库的说法按构造沿用;黄金、美元、布伦特、十年期美债与 9 月加息概率均存在两条以上并列口径,本简报不做调和;本期并记录一项方法性事实:上期提出的「金属拒绝为盘面出价」在一个交易日内被证伪,已在正文中标明。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, proposals that have not been executed, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “carried” are unchanged by construction because no new data has published since the prior edition. Special notes for this edition: night-session figures are live quotes rather than settlements and will be restated from the exchange file tomorrow; Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were login-walled, so the second half of the prior edition’s discriminating test is UNTESTABLE this edition rather than failed; there is no new domestic social inventory print, so the eighth-consecutive-draw claim is carried by construction; gold, the dollar, Brent, the 10-year yield and the September hike probability each carry two or more calibers, listed and deliberately not reconciled; and this edition records a methodological fact — the prior edition’s “metal refuses to bid for the board” reading was falsified within one session, and that is marked in the body where the claim was made.