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SHFE hits both named levels exactly, 24,170 in the day and 24,290 at night. LME flips back into backwardation.沪铝精准触及两个预设价位:日盘 24,170、夜盘 24,290;LME 重回 backwardation。

Thursday, September 3, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Thursday September 3 (Asia), BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete September 2 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards taken from the exchange's own daily file, including complex open interest; all eighteen SHFE moving averages recomputed exactly from a 217-session close series whose September 1 values reproduce the prior edition's published figures to the yuan on every one of the eighteen AL, AO and AD averages, and whose September 1 percentiles reproduce as well; the September 2 LME session from Westmetall, whose September 1 row is unrevised and whose six recomputed cash averages reproduce the prior edition to the cent; a LIVE quote for the September 2 night session, which closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning and which contains the edition's decisive tick; the full September 2 spot table with the Shanghai Huatong caliber RETRIEVABLE for the first time in several editions; Chalco's four regional ingot listings; a Changjiang composite alumina spot caliber that substitutes for the login-walled SMM assessments; a new imported-bauxite cost caliber; the Japanese Q4 premium offer range; an SMM billet inventory print for August 31; and the September 2 macro close. ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: SMM's absolute A00 quotation and its regional transaction premia for September 2; SMM's alumina index and Chalco's five regional alumina listings (login-walled — still carried at August 27, so the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a third consecutive edition rather than failed); SHFE daily warrant tonnages; a new social-inventory print (SMM publishes Monday and Thursday — today IS Thursday, so the 837,000 mt caliber is carried by construction for one more morning and is tested within hours); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a SIXTH consecutive edition.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE PRIOR EDITION NAMED TWO UPSIDE LEVELS AND BOTH WERE TOUCHED EXACTLY The day session printed 24,170 — to the tick the August 14 high called 'only 25 away'. The night session printed 24,290 — to the tick the August 12 close and the twenty-session close top, called 'only 180 away'
⊘ BUT THE DAY FAILED AT ITS LEVEL AND CLOSED LOWER AL2610: open 24,110, high 24,170, low 23,980, CLOSE 24,100, settlement 24,060. Close-to-close −10 (−0.04%); against the prior settlement of 24,070 also −10
⊘ AND THE LOW WAS 23,980 AGAIN — THE SAME TICK FOR A THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION Two night sessions and now a day session have bottomed at exactly 23,980. Whatever it is, it has now been tested three times and has not broken (interpretation)
⚑ THEN THE NIGHT SESSION DELIVERED THE EDITION — RISING PRICE ON RISING OPEN INTEREST AL2610 opened 24,040, sixty BELOW the close, ran to 24,290 and ended 24,235 (+135 on the day close). Open interest 248,809, UP 6,478 lots against the day session's 242,331
⚑ THAT IS THE EXACT TEST THE PRIOR WATCHLIST SET FOR THE ALUMINIUM BOARD It said a further advance with volume AND open interest recovering would require revising 'the board did not participate'. Night volume 91,073, +47.7% on the prior night; VWAP 24,160.56
⚑ AND THE NIGHT LOW OF 24,000 DID NOT REVISIT 23,980 The first session in three that did not trade the level. The night's entire range sat above the day's close for all but the opening minutes (derivation)
⊘ THE DAY SESSION ITSELF WENT THE OTHER WAY: VOLUME UP, OPEN INTEREST DOWN Volume 163,674, +21.1% on 135,186; open interest 242,331, −6,267. The AL complex shed 9,492 lots to 593,992, so this was not purely a roll into AL2611 (+2,333)
⚑ LONDON'S DEAD-FLAT CURVE LEFT ZERO — AND IT LEFT IT UPWARD Cash $3,255.50 against 3M $3,253.50: a $2.00 BACKWARDATION, from exactly zero. Of the three outcomes the prior watchlist named, this is the one that ratifies the advance structurally
⚑ AND LME STOCKS RESUMED DRAWING — THE BIGGEST DRAW SINCE AUGUST 19 246,225 mt, −500. The sequence since the 35-day streak ended reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 → 246,225. 'The draw has stopped' is retired after two sessions
⊘ BUT CASH ITSELF FELL, AND THE THINNEST AVERAGE GOT THINNER Cash −$5.50 (−0.17%), 3M −$7.50. Still above all six averages for a second session, but the MA20 clearance narrowed from $11.32 to $6.60 — the whole London structure now rests on $6.60
⚑ LME AVERAGES (EXACT): ABOVE ALL SIX FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION MA5 $3,235.70 (+$19.80), MA10 $3,218.25 (+$37.25), MA20 $3,248.90 (+$6.60), MA30 $3,235.62 (+$19.88), MA40 $3,216.40 (+$39.10), MA60 $3,233.11 (+$22.39)
⊘ THE RATIO ROSE BACK FROM 7.3934 TO 7.4029 — SHANGHAI OUTPERFORMED AGAIN 24,100 ÷ $3,255.50. London led for exactly one session. SHFE fell 0.04% against London's 0.17%, so the compression the prior edition welcomed reversed at the margin (derivation)
⊘ A WINDOW ARTEFACT MUST BE FLAGGED: LME'S 60-SESSION PERCENTILE ROSE WHILE PRICE FELL 40.9% against 36.5%, because June 9's $3,608.00 rolled OUT of the window and the range top fell to $3,536.00. The 20-session reading, which has no such artefact, FELL from 41.4% to 38.5%
⚑ SHFE IS STILL ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES BY 95.00 TO 529.92 MA5 24,005.00, MA10 23,861.00, MA20 23,941.25, MA30 23,790.67, MA40 23,632.50, MA60 23,570.08. Third consecutive session above the whole band
⊘ AND MA60 FELL FOR A THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION −2.75, after −2.50 and −6.00. Five averages rose again (MA5 +68.00, MA10 +42.50, MA20 +15.50, MA30 +30.50, MA40 +24.38) and the longest one still has not turned
⊘ PERCENTILES AND RETRACEMENT BOTH SLIPPED 20-session close percentile 72.7% from 74.1%; 60-session 89.2% from 89.8%. The retracement of the August 3–12 advance worsened from 27.9% to 29.5% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290)
⊘ ALUMINA FAILED THE TEST THE PRIOR EDITION WROTE FOR IT — ON BOTH LEGS The test required a day close ABOVE 2,718 on RISING open interest. AO2610 closed 2,708 with open interest DOWN 8,781. Neither condition was met (derivation)
⊘ AND THAT OPEN-INTEREST DECLINE IS NOW FOUR SESSIONS AND MORE THAN HALF THE BOOK 280,950 → 228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511. Cumulatively −145,439 lots, or −51.8%, since August 27. The 23:15 accumulation bar did not survive daylight
⚑ BUT THE PRICE DID NOT FAIL — IT ROSE, AND THE SETTLEMENT CAME WITHIN 2 OF COST AO2610 closed 2,708 (+15, +0.56%) and SETTLED 2,716 (+33, +1.23% on the prior settlement) against cost caliber one of 2,718. The day high of 2,740 matched the prior night's high exactly
⚑ AND IT RECLAIMED MA40 — FIVE OF SIX, FROM FOUR OF SIX MA5 2,670.00, MA10 2,671.50, MA20 2,683.30, MA30 2,683.03, MA40 2,693.30 — all cleared. Only MA60 (2,744.57) remains, 36.57 above. The 20-session percentile jumped 69.9% → 83.2%
⊘ THEN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT GAVE THE MOVE BACK AO2610 night: open 2,700, high 2,710, low 2,688, last 2,695, VWAP 2,698.72, volume 66,592, OI 133,550 (−1,961). A FIFTH consecutive open-interest decline, and 2,695 is below MA40
⊘ THE SOUTH CHINA NARROWING STREAK BROKE ON ITS FIFTH TEST — ALL THREE WIDENED Nanhai−Shanghai 460 → 520; Nanchu−Shanghai 170 → 240; Chalco South−East 170 → 220. The prior edition named this series as unbroken. It broke, and it broke in South China's favour
⊘ THE BASIS SLIPPED FROM EXACTLY ZERO BACK TO −20, WITH SPOT LAGGING Shanghai spot 24,080 (−30) against AL2610's 24,100 (−10); −25 against AL2609's 24,105. Inside the −20 to +30 band the watchlist named, but at its very edge and for the wrong reason
⊘ ONLY SOUTH CHINA ROSE: SIX OF THE NINE SPOT CALIBERS FELL Up: Nanchu 24,320 (+40), Nanhai/Foshan 24,600 (+30), Chalco South 24,300 (+20). Down: Shanghai, Changjiang, Zhongyuan and Chalco East all 24,080 (−30), Chalco Southwest 24,110 (−20), Central 23,950 (−40)
⚑ THE SHANGHAI HUATONG CALIBER IS RETRIEVABLE AGAIN AFTER SEVERAL EDITIONS 24,130 (−30), level with Nanhai's own Shanghai A00 caliber at 24,130 (−30). China Hongqiao 24,240 (−30); Shanghai Wumao 24,080 (−30)
⊘ THE HARDEST NEW NUMBER IN THE EDITION IS BEARISH, PHYSICAL AND OVERSEAS Japanese Q4 2026 premium OFFERS came in at $310–325/mt, down 18% to 22% on the quarter. A Chinese caliber reports it as 'cut to $310'. This is the overseas physical market repricing down by a fifth
⚑ THE COST FLOOR MOVED THE OTHER WAY: IMPORTED BAUXITE IS RISING Guinean spot mainstream CIF has moved up to $72–73/dry mt over two weeks; September long-term contracts were held FLAT with August, implying $73–74/dry mt landed; freight approaching $40/mt
⚑ ADP MISSED AND IT MISSED ON THE DOVISH SIDE, ONE DAY BEFORE PAYROLLS US private payrolls +38,000 in August against +47,000 expected, the weakest since January; July was revised UP to +46,000. July factory orders +0.9% against +0.6%
⚑ AND GOLD TURNED HIGHER — THE THIRD TEST OF THE INFLATION-SHOCK READING December gold $4,414.60 (+$18.20, +0.41%), the first rise in five sessions, while Brent extended to $95.63 (+1.04%) and WTI to $91.01 (+0.88%)
⊘ BUT THE DISCRIMINATOR IS CONTAMINATED AND THIS BRIEF SAYS SO Gold's rise is attributed by the sources to the weak ADP, not to crude. The prior edition's rule fires bullish, but the causal channel it assumed was not the one that operated (interpretation)
⊘ AND THE FED CALIBERS STILL DO NOT AGREE — A FOURTH EDITION RUNNING September hike odds 66% on a CME FedWatch caliber and 'roughly 70%' on another, against 62% and 'above 65%' carried. The October strip is absent for a SIXTH consecutive edition
⚑ EQUITIES REBOUNDED AND THE LONG END STOPPED RISING S&P 500 7,666.60 (+0.46%), Nasdaq 26,217.83 (+0.45%), Dow 53,061.95 (+0.56%). The 10-year held 4.796%, unchanged. The dollar stalled: 99.538–99.563 this morning against 'supported near 99.76'
⚑ SHFE WEEKLY STOCKS ARE NOW A TEN-WEEK DECLINE ON A NEW CALIBER 391,498 mt at August 28, −12,299 w/w — described this edition as the TENTH consecutive weekly decline and a cumulative −135,800 mt. Registered warrants 245,510 (−28,691) carried
⚑ AND BILLET FINALLY UPDATED — LOWER SMM billet inventory 140,500 mt at August 31, +1,000 against the prior Thursday and −4,000 against the prior Monday. The carried 143,000 mt five-year high is superseded and the risk eased
⚑ AD2610 CLOSED 23,390 ABOVE ALL SIX FOR A THIRD SESSION — AND THE NIGHT ADDED 150 MA5 23,334.00, MA10 23,188.00, MA20 23,269.50, MA30 23,244.17, MA40 23,168.38, MA60 23,105.92. Night last 23,540. ⊘ The AD−AL discount WIDENED 675 → 710 on the day, narrowing to 695 overnight
⚑ METHOD: the close series reproduces the prior edition on all EIGHTEEN averages AND on the percentiles 217 SHFE sessions and 67 LME settlements. Every published AL, AO and AD average for September 1, every LME cash average, and the 74.1%/89.8% and 69.9%/24.3% percentiles are reproduced exactly

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 9月3日(周四)上午,时点在 09:00 沪铝日盘开盘之前。
  • ⚑ 上期在关注清单里点了两个上方位置,而市场在一个交易日内把两个都精确触到了,一个在日盘,一个在夜盘,并且这两个交易时段对同一件事给出了相反的答案。 本期载入 9月2日沪铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金三个完整交易日盘面(取自上期所当日数据文件,含品种合计持仓);9月2日伦敦交易日;以及 9月2日夜盘(归属 9月3日交易日,于今晨 01:00 收市)的实时报价。
  • ⚑ 方法:沪市均线由交易所公布的 AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 收盘序列共 217 个交易日精确计算;伦敦均线由 67 个现货结算日精确计算。在计算任何 9月2日数值之前,两个序列已先行复算——沪市 9月1日的十八条均线(AL、AO、AD 各六条)、以及沪铝 74.1%/89.8% 与氧化铝 69.9%/24.3% 两组分位,与上期公布值逐一分毫不差地吻合;伦敦 9月1日的六条均线与 41.4%/36.5% 分位亦然,且 Westmetall 未对 9月1日一行作任何修订。
  • ⊘ 未取得:9月2日 SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分区域成交升贴水;9月2日 SMM 氧化铝指数与中铝五地氧化铝报价(仍需登录,仍载 8月27日——因此氧化铝判别标准的产业确认一项连续第三期为「无法检验」而非「未通过」);上期所日度仓单吨位;新的社会库存印记(SMM 于周一与周四发布,今日即周四,故 837,000 吨口径仅按构造再沿用一个上午,数小时内即受检验);以及 10 月联邦基金利率条——连续第六期缺失。

⚑ 沪铝日盘:两个被点名的位置之一被精确触到,然后失败

  • AL2610(主力):开 24,110,高 24,170,低 23,980,收 24,100,结算 24,060,前结算 24,070;收盘对收盘 −10(−0.04%),较前结算亦为 −10;成交 163,674 手(+21.1%),持仓 242,331 手(−6,267)。
  • ⚑ 24,170 分毫不差地等于 8月14日高点,即上期关注清单写明「仅 25 元之遥」的那个位置。它被触到了,然后被拒绝。
  • ⊘ 而 23,980 是连续第三个交易时段的相同低点:前两个夜盘,加上本次日盘。三次测试,未破(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 24,005.00、MA10 23,861.00、MA20 23,941.25、MA30 23,790.67、MA40 23,632.50、MA60 23,570.08。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 95.00、239.00、158.75、309.33、467.50、529.92 元,为连续第三个交易日站上全带。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +68.00、MA10 +42.50、MA20 +15.50、MA30 +30.50、MA40 +24.38。⊘ 而 MA60 连续第三个交易日下行(−2.75,前两日为 −2.50 与 −6.00)。
  • ⊘ 20 日收盘分位由 74.1% 回落至 72.7%,60 日分位由 89.8% 回落至 89.2%;对 8月3日至 8月12日涨幅的回撤比例由 27.9% 走差至 29.5%(起点 23,645,顶点 24,290,涨幅 645;收盘低于顶点 190 元)。
  • 前月 AL2609 收 24,105(高于主力 5 元),AL2611 收 24,085,AL2612 收 24,040,AL2701 收 23,975。铝品种合计成交 244,147 手,合计持仓 593,992 手(−9,492)。

解读:日盘是一次拒绝,而不是一次消化

  • ⊘ 成交量增加 21.1% 而持仓减少 6,267 手。更多的纸,更少的头寸,在被点名的位置上收出更低的收盘价——这三条同时出现,只能读作拒绝(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 需要同时说明的是:AL2611 持仓 +2,333 手,AL2609 持仓 −4,815 手,存在移仓成分;但品种合计持仓仍减少 9,492 手,因此主力的减仓不能全部归因于移仓。

⚑ 9月2日夜盘(归属 9月3日交易日)——本期决定性的一根在铝本身

  • ⚑ AL2610:开 24,040(低于日盘收盘 60 点),高 24,290,低 24,000,末价 24,235,均价 24,160.56,成交 91,073 手(较前夜 +47.7%),持仓 248,809 手,较日盘的 242,331 手净增 6,478 手。
  • ⚑ 24,290 分毫不差地等于 8月12日收盘,即二十日收盘区间的顶部,也就是上期点名的第二个位置(「仅 180 元之遥」)。它在夜盘被触到。
  • ⚑ 关键不在价位,在结构:上期关注清单原文写明,「若今日出现价格续涨 + 成交与持仓同时回升,则本简报『盘面未参与』的判断应被修正」。夜盘给出的正是这个组合。本简报据此修正该判断。
  • ⚑ 夜盘低点 24,000,是三个交易时段以来第一次没有触及 23,980。
  • AL2609 末价 24,220(持仓 41,800);AL2611 末价 24,220(持仓 156,157,+2,600);AL2612 末价 24,160(持仓 69,045,+391)。
  • AO2610 夜盘:开 2,700,高 2,710,低 2,688,末价 2,695,均价 2,698.72,成交 66,592 手,持仓 133,550 手(−1,961),为连续第五次下降。AO2611 末价 2,702。
  • AD2610 夜盘:开 23,355,高 23,570,低 23,285,末价 23,540,均价 23,470.40,成交 1,388 手,持仓 6,177 手(−107)。AD−AL 夜盘价差由日盘的 710 收窄至 695。
  • ⊘ 上述为夜盘实时报价,非结算数据,将于明日由交易所文件重述。

⚑ 伦铝:完全持平的曲线离开了零,而且是朝上离开的

  • ⚑ LME 现货结算 3,255.50 美元(−5.50,−0.17%),三个月结算 3,253.50 美元(−7.50)。现货高于三个月 2.00 美元——曲线由精确的零转为 backwardation。上期点名的三种结果里,这是「近端确实在收紧、伦敦的上涨获得结构确认」的那一种。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,225 吨,减少 500 吨。8月19日 35 日连降结束之后的完整序列为 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 → 246,225:连续两个交易日的「去库停了」被撤销,且这是该序列结束以来最大的单日去库。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 3,235.70、MA10 3,218.25、MA20 3,248.90、MA30 3,235.62、MA40 3,216.40、MA60 3,233.11。现货高于全部六条,分别高出 19.80、37.25、6.60、19.88、39.10、22.39 美元,为连续第二个交易日六守其六。
  • ⊘ 但最薄的一条更薄了:MA20 的守住幅度由 11.32 美元收窄至 6.60 美元。伦敦整个「六守其六」的结构,现在压在 6.60 美元上。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +13.50、MA10 +3.65、MA30 +2.40、MA40 +3.41,而 MA20 −0.78、MA60 −5.87。
  • ⊘ 沪伦比价由 7.3934 回升至 7.4029(24,100 ÷ 3,255.50)。伦敦领涨只维持了一个交易日:沪铝跌 0.04%,伦敦跌 0.17%,上期欢迎的比价压缩在边际上反转。
  • ⊘ 一条口径上的算术产物必须点明:伦敦 60 日分位由 36.5% 升至 40.9%,而价格是下跌的——原因是 6月9日的 3,608.00 美元滚出了窗口,区间顶部降至 3,536.00 美元。不受此影响的 20 日分位由 41.4% 降至 38.5%。两条并列,后者才是本期的位置信息。
  • ⊘ 另有两条中国口径:9月2日伦铝报 3,271 美元(+22)与电子盘三个月收 3,294.50 美元(+22)。两者互不一致,也都与 Westmetall 的结算口径不一致,并列载入,不做调和。

⊘ 氧化铝日盘:价格通过了,持仓没有——本简报自己写的检验在两条腿上都未达成

  • AO2610:开 2,693,高 2,740,低 2,684,收 2,708,结算 2,716,前结算 2,683;收盘对收盘 +15(+0.56%),较前结算 +33(+1.23%);成交 244,688 手(+82.4%),持仓 135,511 手(−8,781)。
  • ⊘ 上期设定的检验原文为「若日盘在 2,718 上方以增仓收盘,则『资金确认』升级为『趋势确认』」。实际结果:收 2,708(低于 2,718),持仓 −8,781(减仓)。两条腿都未达成。
  • ⊘ 持仓连续第四个交易日下降。自 8月27日的 280,950 手起算:228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511,四个交易日累计 −145,439 手,即 −51.8%。9月1日夜盘 23:15 那一根的增仓,没有活过白天。
  • ⚑ 但价格并没有失败,反而上涨:结算价 2,716 已进入成本口径一(2,718)之内 2 元;日盘高点 2,740 与前一夜的夜盘高点分毫不差;远月同步走强,AO2611 收 2,716、AO2612 收 2,727、AO2701 收 2,738,曲线整体上移 19 至 30 元。
  • ⚑ 均线:MA5 2,670.00、MA10 2,671.50、MA20 2,683.30、MA30 2,683.03、MA40 2,693.30、MA60 2,744.57。收盘站上前五条(分别 +38.00、+36.50、+24.70、+24.97、+14.70),由「六守其四」变为「六守其五」,仅 MA60 仍高出 36.57 元。20 日分位由 69.9% 跃升至 83.2%,60 日分位由 24.3% 升至 28.9%。
  • ⊘ 而随后的夜盘把涨幅还了回去:末价 2,695,已重新跌破 MA40,持仓连续第五次下降。
  • 氧化铝品种合计成交 398,886 手,合计持仓 459,403 手(−16,928)。
  • AD2610 收 23,390(−45,−0.19%),结算 23,360,持仓 6,284(−497),连续第三个交易日高于自身全部六条均线(MA5 23,334.00、MA10 23,188.00、MA20 23,269.50、MA30 23,244.17、MA40 23,168.38、MA60 23,105.92)。AD−AL 日盘价差由 675 走阔至 710。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⊘ 9月2日现货:只有华南在涨,九条口径中六条下跌

  • 上海现货 24,080(−30,区间 24,060–24,100);长江 24,080(−30,区间 24,060–24,100);中原 24,080(−30);上海物贸 24,080(−30)。
  • ⚑ 上海华通口径本期重新可取得:24,130(−30);南海口径下的上海 A00 亦为 24,130(−30,区间 24,080–24,180);中国宏桥 24,240(−30)。
  • ⚑ 上涨的三条全部在华南:广东南储 24,320(+40,区间 24,290–24,350);南海(佛山)24,600(+30,区间 24,550–24,650);中铝华南 24,300(+20)。
  • 中铝其余三地全部下调:华东 24,080(−30)、西南 24,110(−20)、华中 23,950(−40)。
  • ⊘ 基差由精确的零退回 −20(上海现货 24,080 对 AL2610 收盘 24,100);对前月 AL2609 收盘 24,105 为 −25(上期为 −15)。
  • ⊘ 三条价差全部走阔:南海−上海 520(上期 460),南储−上海 240(上期 170),中铝华南−华东 220(上期 170)。连续四个交易日的收窄序列,在第五次检验上被打断。
  • ⊘ 另有一条长江口径称升贴水「由平水转为升水 15 元」,与本简报计算的 −20 基差不一致,两者并列,不做调和。
  • ⊘ 9月2日 SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分区域成交升贴水仍未取得。

解读:上期的两条判断,本期一条被修正、一条被打断

  • ⚑ 上期记录了自己「金属拒绝为盘面出价」的证伪。本期需要记录的是它的另一半:现货跌 30 元而盘面只跌 10 元,现货重新跑输,基差由零退回 −20。一个交易日的填平,没有成为模式(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 而「华南结构性偏紧已消退」这一条,上期被强化,本期被打断:三条价差同时走阔,且是因为只有华南在涨。华南重新成为全国唯一有实物溢价扩张的区域(此为解读)。

⚑⊘ 成本与海外实物:一条朝上,一条朝下,而朝下的那条更硬

  • ⊘ 本期最硬的一条新数据是偏空的:日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘为 310–325 美元/吨,环比下降 18% 至 22%;另有中国口径直接称「砍至 310 美元」。对照本简报此前载入的二季度结算 350–353 美元与现货升水 270 美元,这是海外实物市场在一次谈判里把自己重新定价、砍掉五分之一。
  • ⚑ 反方向的一条同样是新的:近两周国内进口铝土矿现货成交重心明显上移,几内亚主流成交价升至 72–73 美元/干吨;头部矿企 9 月长协报价与 8 月持平,结合低硫燃料油价格测算,长协到岸成本估在 73–74 美元/干吨;海运费逼近 40 美元/吨。上游矿石成本底部在抬升。
  • 长江综合氧化铝:华东 2,730、华南 2,665,均与前一交易日持平。⊘ SMM 氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价仍需登录,仍载 8月27日(指数 2,676;山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660)。
  • ⊘ ADC12 现在有三条互不一致的口径:本简报此前载入的 23,900;长江现货铝合金 24,000(持平);长江综合华东 23,615(+100)。A356.2 报 24,400。三条并列,不做调和,也不据此计算新的价差。
  • 转载:9 月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨;再生铝开工率 49.1%;破碎生铝 19,900–20,700;海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元;马来西亚巴生港 FOB 3,090 美元。

三 · 库存

⚑ 伦敦重新去库,国内周度口径改写为「十周连降」,铝棒终于更新

  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,225 吨,减少 500 吨。这是 8月19日 35 日连降结束以来最大的单日去库,「海外去库已停」的说法在两个交易日后被撤销。
  • ⚑ 上期所铝库存周度口径本期被改写:8月28日当周 391,498 吨,周环比 −12,299 吨,为连续第十周下降,十周累计去库约 135,800 吨。本简报此前只载入单周变动,未载入连降周数。
  • ⚑ 铝棒本期终于有新印记,而且是下降的:SMM 口径 8月31日全国主流消费地铝棒库存 140,500 吨,较上一个周四 +1,000 吨,较上一个周一 −4,000 吨。本简报此前沿用的 143,000 吨(近五年同期最高)被取代,该项风险缓解而非解除。
  • ⊘ 本期没有新的铝锭社会库存数据。SMM 于每周一与周四发布,今日即周四:837,000 吨(周环比 −15,000,读作连续第八周去库)按构造再沿用一个上午,数小时内即受检验。
  • 转载:保税区 116,000 吨(−1,000);上期所注册仓单 245,510 吨(−28,691);上期所氧化铝周度库存 323,736 吨(−38,827);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨(+2,500)。⊘ 上期所日度仓单吨位未取得。

解读

  • ⚑ 库存栏本期是全表中改善最干净的一栏:海外由「不去库」回到「去库」,国内周度口径由「一周下降」扩展为「十周连降」,铝棒由「近五年最高」下修 2,500 吨。三条同向(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 但三条里没有一条是今天的数据:LME 是 9月2日,上期所周度是 8月28日,铝棒是 8月31日。真正的检验在今天下午的 SMM 社会库存印记(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ ADP 大幅低于预期,在非农前一天,而且是朝鸽派的方向

  • ⚑ 美国 8 月 ADP 私营部门新增就业 38,000 人,低于 47,000 人的预期,为 1 月以来最弱;7 月数值上修至 46,000 人。7 月工厂订单 +0.9%,高于 +0.6% 的预期。
  • ⚑ 美股全线反弹:标普 500 收 7,666.60(+35.21,+0.46%),纳指 26,217.83(+118.05,+0.45%),道指 53,061.95(+294.63,+0.56%)。十年期美债收益率 4.796%,与前一交易日持平——长端连日上行暂停。
  • ⚑ 美元停滞:今晨两条口径读作 99.538(−0.02%)与 99.563(+0.01%);9月2日盘中另有口径描述为「稳固支撑于 99.76 附近」。三条并列,方向由「延续反弹」转为「停在原地」。美元兑日元 158.93(−1.24),日元明显走强。
  • ⊘ 9 月加息 25 个基点的概率:CME FedWatch 口径 66%,另一口径「约 70%」,对照上期载入的 62% 与「65% 以上」。连续第四期口径不一,始终未调和。⊘ 10 月条连续第六期未取得。
  • 美国 8 月非农于 9月4日(周五)发布,预期约 9 万人。

⚑ 黄金转涨——通胀冲击判定的第三次检验,答案是多头的,但通道被污染

  • ⚑ 12 月期金结算 4,414.60 美元(+18.20,+0.41%),为五个交易日以来首次上涨;同期布伦特续涨至 95.63 美元(+1.04%)、WTI 91.01 美元(+0.88%),原油连涨第三日。
  • ⚑ 按上期写明的规则:「若原油续涨而黄金转涨,则该冲击应被重新归类为地缘供给冲击,对铝净偏多。」规则触发,方向为多。
  • ⊘ 但必须同时记录:各来源把黄金的上涨归因于 ADP 疲弱,而非原油。规则在多头方向上触发了,却是通过一条它没有假设的通道。本简报记录这一污染,不把这一分直接计入(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 黄金另有多条互不一致的口径:纽约期金盘中失守 4,330 美元(−1.52%);现货黄金 4,283.74 美元(−1%);沪金收跌 2.37% 报 938.22 元/克,沪银收跌 3.86%。北京时间口径覆盖的是 9月1日美盘,与 9月2日的美盘收盘不属同一时段,并列载入,不做调和。

地缘与外部利率

  • ⚑ 伊朗胡齐斯坦省副省长称美军前一晚对该省的袭击造成 7 人死亡、8 人受伤;另有报道称 9月1日夜间美军对伊朗南部多地发动袭击,波及霍尔木兹甘省库赫斯塔克一处婚礼现场,造成 4 人死亡、50 人受伤。霍尔木兹海峡局势未缓和。
  • 日本 10 年期国债收益率一度升至 3.015%,为 1996 年 9 月以来最高;英国 30 年期国债收益率 9月1日盘中触及 5.9%(1998 年以来最高),10 年期一度升至约 5.25%。恒生指数跌超 1% 至 25,075.83。
  • 中国财政部发行 30 年期国债 730 亿元,发行利率 2.1405%(预期 2.1400%),投标倍数 5.88。

解读:宏观一栏的净方向

  • ⚑ 净方向由上期的「中性偏空」回到中性。 偏多的三条是 ADP 大幅低于预期、黄金转涨、长端收益率停止上行;偏空的仍是 9 月加息定价 66%–70%、10 月条第六期缺失、以及美元只是停滞而未回落。
  • ⊘ 明日非农(预期约 9 万人)是本周唯一能把这三条并成一条的事件。在此之前,宏观对铝的净影响不宜被赋予方向(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⊘ 海外实物端:本期出现本简报记录以来最大的一次季度升水下调

  • ⊘ 新增:全球主要生产商向日本买家提出的 2026 年四季度(10—12 月装船)升水报盘为 310–325 美元/吨,较当季下降 18% 至 22%;另有中国口径直接称「砍至 310 美元」。
  • ⊘ 这条数字的重量在于它是实物合同,不是盘面。本简报此前把「日本季度升水三个季度由 86 美元升至 350–353 美元」列为多头因素;该趋势在四季度报盘上首次反转,且幅度是双位数百分比(此为解读)。
  • 转载:MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨(−10);美国废铝出口上半年 +21% 至 125 万吨。

⚑ 成本端:铝土矿在抬,氧化铝在减仓,阳极持平

  • ⚑ 新增:几内亚进口铝土矿现货主流成交价升至 72–73 美元/干吨;9 月长协与 8 月持平,推算长协到岸成本 73–74 美元/干吨;海运费逼近 40 美元/吨。对照本简报此前载入的 FOB 38–42 美元、CIF 70–74 美元,矿石成本底部在抬升。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 9月2日结算 2,716 元,距成本口径一(2,718)仅 2 元;中铝五地报价中的四地(2,730–2,785)仍高于盘面。
  • ⊘ 但持仓连续四个交易日流出 145,439 手(−51.8%),夜盘再减 1,961 手。成本在抬、价格在涨,而资金在走——三者本期不同向(此为解读)。
  • 转载:中国氧化铝建成产能 12,095 万吨/年、运行 9,590 万吨/年,闲置约 2,505 万吨/年,开工率约 79.3%;8 月产量预计突破 800 万吨。
  • 转载:俄铝拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能及 SUBR 铝土矿(仍为提议);几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年;力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 因天然气维持 50%。
  • 转载:卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能;Alba 一至三号系列停产(占 19%);EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 恢复至 25%;中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性。

需求与政策

  • 转载:RatingDog 8 月制造业 PMI 51.5(六个月新高);国家统计局 8 月 49.8;铝加工行业 8 月综合 PMI 48.7%。三条中仅一条在 50 之上,RatingDog 与国家统计局相差 1.7 个点。
  • 转载:周度开工率(截至 8月27日)两升一平一降——型材 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。本期无更新。
  • ⚑ 新增(政策):《工业绿色低碳发展「十五五」规划》正式落地,以产能、工艺、价值三个维度覆盖钢铁与有色两大高载能行业。⊘ 文件对电解铝产能天花板的具体处理未见细节,本期不据此调整供给假设。
  • ⊘ 本期真正的需求证据是负面的:现货跌幅大于盘面、基差由零退回 −20、六条口径下跌。上期「下游在更高价位接货」的读法本期没有得到延续(此为解读)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

9月2日成交与情绪

  • 华东:上海现货 24,080(−30),基差 −20。现货跌幅(−30)是盘面跌幅(−10)的三倍,持货商在盘面走弱时让价更快。
  • 华南:南海(佛山)24,600(+30),南储 24,320(+40),中铝华南 24,300(+20)——全国唯一上涨的区域;南海−上海价差走阔至 520,四日收窄序列被打断。
  • 华中:中铝华中 23,950(−40),跌幅为全国最大,重新跌破 24,000 关口。
  • ⚑ 华东与华南的方向本期首次分离:同一天里,华东跌 30、华南涨 20 至 40。这在本简报记录中是华南区域性偏紧的典型形态(此为解读)。
  • 出货意愿:由「偏弱(惜售)」转为中性——持货商跟随盘面下调且幅度更大。采购意愿:由「中性」转为偏弱——基差重新走贴,说明买方在绝对价位下移的同时还要求更好的相对价格(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ SMM 的出货/采购情绪指数未取得;上述判断依据价格、涨跌幅与价差行为推断,非 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑ 9月2日夜盘 AL2610 增仓上行:末价 24,235(较日盘收盘 +135),持仓净增 6,478 手,成交 91,073 手(+47.7%)——铝盘面本轮首次以新资金进场的方式上涨。
  • ⚑ 夜盘高点 24,290 精确等于 8月12日收盘,即二十日收盘区间顶部,为上期点名的第二个位置。
  • ⚑ 夜盘低点 24,000,三个交易时段以来首次未触及 23,980。
  • ⚑ 日盘高点 24,170 精确等于 8月14日高点,为上期点名的第一个位置,已被触到。
  • ⚑ AL2610 收 24,100,连续第三个交易日高于自身全部六条均线,高出 95.00 至 529.92 元。
  • ⚑ 23,980 已连续三个交易时段被测试且未破。
  • ⚑ LME 曲线由精确的零转为 2.00 美元 backwardation——上期三种结果中最强的一种。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 246,225 吨(−500),为 8月19日以来最大单日去库,「去库已停」被撤销。
  • ⚑ LME 现货连续第二个交易日高于自身全部六条均线(19.80 至 39.10 美元)。
  • ⚑ LME 现货 20 日分位仅 38.5%,仍远低于沪铝的 72.7%,伦敦在自身区间内仍有空间。
  • ⚑ 上期所铝周度库存 391,498 吨为连续第十周下降,十周累计约 −135,800 吨。
  • ⚑ 铝棒库存下修至 140,500 吨(8月31日),此前载入的 143,000 吨近五年同期高点被取代。
  • ⚑ 保税区 116,000 吨(−1,000),外部资源未回流;上期所注册仓单周内 −28,691 吨。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 9月2日结算 2,716 元,距成本口径一仅 2 元;收 2,708(+15,+0.56%),站上前五条均线,收复 MA40。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝日盘高点 2,740 与前一夜夜盘高点分毫不差;远月 AO2611 2,716、AO2612 2,727、AO2701 2,738 同步上移 19 至 30 元。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 20 日分位由 69.9% 跃升至 83.2%。
  • ⚑ 几内亚进口铝土矿现货升至 72–73 美元/干吨,9 月长协持平,推算到岸 73–74 美元,海运费近 40 美元——矿石成本底部抬升。
  • ⚑ 中铝五地氧化铝报价中的四地(2,730–2,785)仍高于盘面。
  • ⚑ 9 月预焙阳极 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨,碳素成本未回落。
  • ⚑ 布伦特 95.63 美元(+1.04%)、WTI 91.01 美元(+0.88%),连涨第三日,能源成本尾部维持。
  • ⚑ 美国 8 月 ADP 仅 38,000 人,远低于 47,000 预期,为 1 月以来最弱——非农前一天的鸽派信号。
  • ⚑ 12 月期金 4,414.60 美元(+0.41%),五个交易日以来首次上涨,上期设定的规则在多头方向触发。
  • ⚑ 十年期美债 4.796% 持平,长端连日上行暂停;美股三大指数全线反弹。
  • ⚑ 美元停滞于 99.538–99.76 之间而非续升,美元兑日元 158.93(−1.24)。
  • ⚑ 华南三条价差同时走阔,且是因为只有华南在涨——区域性实物偏紧重新出现。
  • ⚑ 上海华通口径重新可取得并录得 24,130,现货口径覆盖度本期改善。
  • ⚑ AD2610 收 23,390,连续第三个交易日高于自身全部六条均线,夜盘再涨 150 至 23,540。
  • ⚑ 远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本仍在五处被削减或封顶(俄铝、几内亚、Yarwun、美铝、Alunorte)。
  • ⚑ 卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能、Alba −19%、Alunorte 50%——海外电解与精炼缺口仍在。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;有色冶炼利润 1—7 月 +91.8%,放松天花板的可能性更低。
  • ⚑ 铝锭社会库存 837,000 吨口径按构造沿用,连续第八周去库,自 7月23日累计 −169,000 吨。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘ 日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比 −18% 至 −22%——海外实物市场一次性重新定价,砍掉约五分之一,为本期最硬的新数据。
  • ⊘ 沪铝日盘在被点名的 24,170 上失败,收 24,100(−10),成交增 21.1% 而持仓减 6,267 手——更多的纸、更少的头寸、更低的收盘。
  • ⊘ 铝品种合计持仓 −9,492 手,主力减仓不能全部归因于向 AL2611 的移仓。
  • ⊘ 20 日收盘分位由 74.1% 降至 72.7%,60 日由 89.8% 降至 89.2%;回撤比例由 27.9% 走差至 29.5%。
  • ⊘ MA60 连续第三个交易日在高位逆势下行(−2.75),六条均线中最长的一条仍未转向。
  • ⊘ 沪伦比价由 7.3934 回升至 7.4029,伦敦领涨只维持了一个交易日。
  • ⊘ LME 现货本身下跌 5.50 美元,三个月跌 7.50 美元。
  • ⊘ LME 的 MA20 守住幅度由 11.32 美元收窄至 6.60 美元,伦敦整个「六守其六」压在 6.60 美元上。
  • ⊘ 伦敦 60 日分位的上升是窗口效应(6月9日 3,608 美元滚出),不受影响的 20 日分位实际由 41.4% 降至 38.5%。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝未通过本简报自设的检验:需要「2,718 上方 + 增仓」,实际为「2,708 + 减仓 8,781」,两条腿均未达成。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝持仓连续第四个交易日下降,自 8月27日累计 −145,439 手(−51.8%);夜盘再减 1,961 手,为第五次。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝夜盘把日盘涨幅还了回去,末价 2,695 重新跌破 MA40。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝 60 日分位仍仅 28.9%,MA60(2,744.57)仍高出 36.57 元。
  • ⊘ 中铝五地氧化铝报价连续第三期因需登录无法取得,产业确认一项仍无法检验。
  • ⊘ 基差由精确的零退回 −20,现货跌 30 而盘面仅跌 10,一日填平未成模式。
  • ⊘ 九条现货口径中六条下跌,中铝华中 −40 跌幅最大并重新跌破 24,000。
  • ⊘ 华南三条价差的四日收窄序列被打断——上期认定「被强化」的判断本期被打断。
  • ⊘ 9 月加息定价 66% 至「约 70%」,较上期的 62% 与「65% 以上」进一步上移。
  • ⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第六期未取得,联储路径中段仍是盲区。
  • ⊘ 美元并未回落,仅停滞;9月2日盘中另有口径称「稳固支撑于 99.76 附近」。
  • ⊘ 黄金转涨的归因是 ADP 而非原油,上期规则的触发通道被污染,该分不宜直接计入。
  • ⊘ 中国氧化铝闲置产能约 2,505 万吨/年,远大于远期账本上被削减的合计规模;8 月产量预计突破 800 万吨。
  • ⊘ 铸造铝合金库存 28,100 吨仍为转载值,连续第二周加速累库的风险未获更新。
  • ⊘ 国内社会库存本期仍无新印记,连续第八周去库按构造沿用;加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名;EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 回填至 25%。

八 · 一句话观点

上期在关注清单里点了两个上方位置,而市场在一个交易日之内把两个都精确触到了,一个在日盘、一个在夜盘,并且这两个交易时段对同一件事给出了相反的答案:日盘打到 24,170——分毫不差地等于上期称作「仅 25 元之遥」的 8月14日高点——随即失败,同一天第三次在 23,980 见底,收 24,100 跌 10 元,成交量增加 21.1% 而持仓减少 6,267 手,更多的纸、更少的头寸、在被点名的位置上收出更低的价格,这三条同时出现只能读作拒绝;而夜盘低开 60 点于 24,040 之后一路拉到 24,290——分毫不差地等于 8月12日收盘,即二十日收盘区间的顶部,也就是上期点名的第二个位置——末价 24,235,持仓净增 6,478 手,成交量增加 47.7%,这正是上期写明「若出现价格续涨 + 成交与持仓同时回升,则本简报『盘面未参与』的判断应被修正」的那个组合,本期据此修正该判断,因为这是本轮上涨中铝盘面自身第一次以新资金进场的方式上涨,而不是被伦敦与现货两端拖着走;伦敦也以多头的形式回答了自己的检验,而该检验是具体的——完全持平的曲线在本简报核实过的记录里只有 8月17日一个先例,其后三个交易日现货下跌 90.00 美元——本期曲线离开了零,并且是朝上离开,现货 3,255.50 美元高于三个月 3,253.50 美元,形成 2.00 美元的 backwardation,即上期三种结果中「近端确实在收紧、伦敦的上涨获得结构确认」的那一种,同时 LME 库存 246,225 吨减少 500 吨,为 8月19日 35 日连降结束以来最大的单日去库,连续两个交易日的「去库已停」被撤销;代价是伦敦现货本身跌了 5.50 美元,而它最薄的一条均线更薄了,MA20 的守住幅度由 11.32 美元收窄至 6.60 美元,伦敦整个「六守其六」的结构现在压在 6.60 美元上;氧化铝是本期最清晰的一次失败,而且是在本简报自己写下的检验上两条腿都未达成——检验要求「日盘在 2,718 上方以增仓收盘」,实际结果是收 2,708、持仓减少 8,781 手,为连续第四个交易日下降,自 8月27日累计 −145,439 手即 −51.8%,其后的夜盘又把涨幅还了回去,末价 2,695 重新跌破 MA40,持仓第五次下降;但价格本身并没有失败,结算价 2,716 已进入成本口径一之内 2 元、MA40 被收复而成为「六守其五」、日盘高点 2,740 与前一夜分毫不差、远月同步上移 19 至 30 元——价格在确认而资金在离场,恰好与产生该结论的那个夜盘相反,因此本期把氧化铝记为「未决」,而不是记为任何一侧;实物一栏则明确变差:华南三条价差的四日收窄序列在第五次检验上被打断,三条同时走阔,而打断它的原因是九条口径中只有华南三条在涨、其余六条全部下跌,基差由精确的零退回 −20 且现货跌 30 而盘面只跌 10,而本期最硬的一条新数据是偏空的、实物的、海外的——日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比下降 18% 至 22%,这是海外实物市场在一次谈判里把自己重新定价、砍掉约五分之一;宏观本期反而回到中性:ADP 仅 38,000 人远低于 47,000 预期且为 1 月以来最弱,就在非农前一天,黄金五个交易日以来首次上涨至 4,414.60 美元而原油连涨第三日,按上期写下的规则这应当把冲击重新归类为地缘供给冲击并对铝净偏多——但各来源把黄金的上涨归因于 ADP 而非原油,规则在多头方向上触发了,却是通过一条它没有假设的通道,本简报记录这一污染而不直接计分,同时 9 月加息定价仍由 62% 与「65% 以上」上移至 66% 与「约 70%」,10 月条连续第六期缺失,美元只是停在 99.5 至 99.8 之间而非回落;成本端则朝上:几内亚进口铝土矿现货升至 72–73 美元/干吨,9 月长协与 8 月持平,推算到岸 73–74 美元,海运费逼近 40 美元,矿石的底部在一个仍在减仓的精炼市场下面抬升;因此本期的结论是:这是铝盘面自身终于出价的一个交易日,但它是在收盘之后出的价,而所有在白天交易的东西——日盘本身、现货升贴水、华南结构、日本季度升水、氧化铝的持仓——全部朝相反方向走;多头拿到了夜盘的盘面与伦敦的曲线,空头拿到了本期每一条实物印记。明日非农,而今天下午的 SMM 社会库存,是本简报连续两期按构造沿用的去库说法的第一次真实检验。

九 · 今日(9月3日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 夜盘的增仓上行能否在日盘被确认,这是本期唯一的一级问题。 夜盘末价 24,235、持仓净增 6,478 手,是本轮第一次「铝盘面自己出价」。今日的判别很干净:若日盘在 24,235 上方以持仓继续回升收盘,则「盘面开始参与」由一次夜盘事件升级为趋势事实,上方直接面对 24,290 与 24,300;若日盘回补至 24,100 以下且持仓再度下降,则昨夜那一根应被重新归类为一次夜间的、可能与外盘或消息相关的脉冲,与 9月1日夜盘氧化铝那一根同类——而后者已经被日盘否定过一次。
  • ⚑ 24,290 是今日最重要的单一价位,因为它同时是三样东西。 它是 8月12日收盘、二十日收盘区间的顶部、以及昨夜的最高价。日盘若能收在其上,则 8月3日以来的整段回撤被完全收复,上方只剩 24,300(六十日收盘顶部)、24,340(8月13日高点)与 24,490(8月12日高点);若在其下反复受阻,则该位置将由「被触到」变为「被确认为压力」,而夜盘的增仓将成为一次高位接盘。
  • ⚑ 23,980 与 24,000:三次测试之后的第四次。 23,980 已连续三个交易时段作为低点出现,而昨夜低点 24,000 是三个时段以来首次没有触到它。今日若日盘再度打到 23,980 并守住,则该位置的「被防守」属性基本确立;若被有效跌破,则本简报此前无法区分的「防守盘 vs 挂单」将以最坏的方式得到答案,下方参考依次为 MA5(24,005.00)、MA20(23,941.25)与 MA10(23,861.00)。
  • ⚑ 今天下午的 SMM 社会库存印记,这是两期以来第一次真实检验。 837,000 吨、连续第八周去库、自 7月23日累计 −169,000 吨——这三个说法本简报已按构造沿用两期,今日兑现。同时关注三条已经改善的库存线能否延续:LME 是否连续第二日去库(昨日 −500 吨为 8月19日以来最大)、上期所周度是否走向第十一周连降、以及铝棒能否从 140,500 吨继续下行。若社会库存转为累库,则本期库存栏「全表最干净」的定性需要立即撤回。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:未决状态今日必须落定,判别位是 2,695 与 2,718。 夜盘末价 2,695 已重新跌破 MA40(2,693.30 之上仅 1.70 元的位置反复),而结算价 2,716 距成本口径一只有 2 元。今日若日盘收在 2,718 之上且持仓终止四连降,则「价格确认、资金离场」的背离以多头方式收敛;若收在 MA20(2,683.30)之下且持仓第六次下降,则 9月1日夜盘那一根 8,459 手的增仓应被正式归类为已被否定的单次脉冲。同时关注中铝五地报价是否终于可取得——这一项已连续三期无法检验。
  • ⚑ 美国 8 月非农(今夜,预期约 9 万人)与 ADP 的一致性。 ADP 昨日仅 38,000 人、为 1 月以来最弱,而 9 月加息定价反而仍在 66% 至「约 70%」。若非农同样明显低于预期而加息定价不回落,则说明市场定价的是通胀而非增长,铝的估值端压力不解除;若非农弱而定价回落、美元跌破 99.5,则宏观栏将首次由中性转向偏多。同时留意 10 月条是否终于可取得——已连续第六期缺失。
  • ⚑ 现货能否止跌,以及华南的分离能否延续。 昨日现货跌 30 而盘面跌 10,基差由零退回 −20;若今日现货跟随夜盘上涨且基差回到 −10 以内,则「下游在更高价位接货」的判断恢复;若盘面上涨而现货再度滞后、基差扩大至 −50 以外,则夜盘的增仓上行缺乏实物背书。同时观察南海−上海(520)、南储−上海(240)、中铝华南−华东(220)三条价差是否连续第二日走阔——若是,华南区域性偏紧将由一日现象升级为新的序列。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

  • Written the morning of Thursday, September 3, BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open.
  • ⚑ The prior edition named two upside levels in its watchlist, and the market touched both of them to the tick inside one trading day — one in the day session and one in the night session — and the two sessions gave opposite answers about what it meant. This edition carries the complete September 2 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards taken from the exchange’s own daily file including complex open interest; the September 2 London session; and a live quote for the September 2 night session, which belongs to the September 3 trading day and closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning.
  • ⚑ Method: SHFE averages are computed exactly from the exchange’s published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series across 217 trading days; London’s from 67 cash settlements. Before any September 2 value was computed, both series were used to re-derive the prior edition — all EIGHTEEN SHFE averages for September 1, the SHFE 74.1%/89.8% and alumina 69.9%/24.3% percentiles, all six LME cash averages and the 41.4%/36.5% London percentiles were reproduced exactly, and Westmetall has not revised its September 1 row.
  • ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and regional transaction premia for September 2; SMM’s alumina index and Chalco’s five regional alumina listings (login-walled, still carried at August 27 — so the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a THIRD consecutive edition rather than failed); SHFE daily warrant tonnages; a new social inventory print (SMM publishes Monday and Thursday, and today IS Thursday, so the 837,000 mt caliber is carried by construction for one more morning and is tested within hours); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a SIXTH consecutive edition.

⚑ SHFE day session: the first named level was touched exactly — and then it failed

  • AL2610 (main contract): open 24,110, high 24,170, low 23,980, close 24,100, settlement 24,060, prior settlement 24,070. Close-to-close −10 (−0.04%); against the prior settlement also −10. Volume 163,674 (+21.1%); OI 242,331 (−6,267).
  • ⚑ 24,170 is, to the tick, the August 14 high that the prior watchlist named as “only 25 away”. It was reached, and it was rejected.
  • ⊘ And 23,980 is the identical low for a THIRD consecutive trading session — the two prior nights, and now this day. Three tests, no break (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Moving averages (exact): MA5 24,005.00, MA10 23,861.00, MA20 23,941.25, MA30 23,790.67, MA40 23,632.50, MA60 23,570.08. The close is above ALL SIX by 95.00, 239.00, 158.75, 309.33, 467.50 and 529.92 — a third consecutive session above the whole band.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +68.00, MA10 +42.50, MA20 +15.50, MA30 +30.50, MA40 +24.38. ⊘ MA60 FELL for a THIRD consecutive session, −2.75 after −2.50 and −6.00.
  • ⊘ The 20-session close percentile slipped from 74.1% to 72.7% and the 60-session from 89.8% to 89.2%; the retracement of the August 3–12 advance worsened from 27.9% to 29.5% (launch 23,645, peak 24,290, close 190 below the peak).
  • Front-month AL2609 closed 24,105, 5 above the main contract; AL2611 24,085; AL2612 24,040; AL2701 23,975. Complex volume 244,147, complex OI 593,992 (−9,492).

Interpretation: the day session was a rejection, not a digestion

  • ⊘ Volume rose 21.1% while open interest fell 6,267. More paper, less position, and a lower close made off a level the brief itself had named. Those three together read as rejection (interpretation).
  • ⊘ It must be said alongside that AL2611 added 2,333 lots and AL2609 shed 4,815, so a roll is present; but the complex still lost 9,492 lots, so the main contract’s decline cannot be attributed entirely to rolling.

⚑ The September 2 night session (trading day September 3) — the decisive tick is in aluminium itself

  • ⚑ AL2610: open 24,040 (sixty BELOW the day close), high 24,290, low 24,000, last 24,235, VWAP 24,160.56, volume 91,073 (+47.7% on the prior night), OI 248,809 — UP 6,478 against the day session’s 242,331.
  • ⚑ 24,290 is, to the tick, the August 12 close and the top of the twenty-session close range — the second level the prior watchlist named, at “only 180 away”. It was reached overnight.
  • ⚑ The structure is the point, not the price. The prior watchlist said in terms: “If today produces a further advance with volume AND open interest both recovering, this edition’s ‘the board did not participate’ judgement should be revised.” That is exactly the configuration the night produced. The judgement is revised.
  • ⚑ The night low of 24,000 is the first session in three that did not trade 23,980.
  • AL2609 last 24,220 (OI 41,800); AL2611 last 24,220 (OI 156,157, +2,600); AL2612 last 24,160 (OI 69,045, +391).
  • AO2610 night: open 2,700, high 2,710, low 2,688, last 2,695, VWAP 2,698.72, volume 66,592, OI 133,550 (−1,961) — a FIFTH consecutive decline. AO2611 last 2,702.
  • AD2610 night: open 23,355, high 23,570, low 23,285, last 23,540, VWAP 23,470.40, volume 1,388, OI 6,177 (−107). The AD−AL spread narrowed from the day’s 710 to 695 overnight.
  • ⊘ These are live session quotes, not settlements, and will be restated from the exchange file tomorrow.

⚑ LME: the dead-flat curve left zero — and it left it upward

  • ⚑ Cash settled $3,255.50 (−$5.50, −0.17%); 3M settled $3,253.50 (−$7.50). Cash is $2.00 ABOVE 3M: the curve moved from exactly zero into BACKWARDATION. Of the three outcomes the prior watchlist named, this is the one that “confirms genuine nearby tightening and ratifies London’s advance structurally”.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,225 mt, −500. The sequence since the 35-day draw ended on August 19 now reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 → 246,225. This is the largest single-session draw since that streak ended, and it retires “the draw has stopped” after two sessions.
  • ⚑ Averages (exact): MA5 $3,235.70, MA10 $3,218.25, MA20 $3,248.90, MA30 $3,235.62, MA40 $3,216.40, MA60 $3,233.11. Cash is above ALL SIX by $19.80, $37.25, $6.60, $19.88, $39.10 and $22.39 — a second consecutive session.
  • ⊘ But the thinnest average got thinner: the MA20 clearance narrowed from $11.32 to $6.60. London’s entire six-of-six structure now rests on six dollars and sixty cents.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +$13.50, MA10 +$3.65, MA30 +$2.40, MA40 +$3.41, while MA20 −$0.78 and MA60 −$5.87.
  • ⊘ The SHFE-LME ratio rose back from 7.3934 to 7.4029 (24,100 ÷ $3,255.50). London led for exactly one session: SHFE fell 0.04% against London’s 0.17%, so the compression the prior edition welcomed reversed at the margin.
  • ⊘ A window artefact must be flagged: London’s 60-session percentile ROSE from 36.5% to 40.9% while the price FELL, because June 9’s $3,608.00 rolled out of the window and the range top dropped to $3,536.00. The 20-session reading, which carries no such artefact, fell from 41.4% to 38.5%. The latter is the positional information this edition stands on.
  • ⊘ Two Chinese calibers list the September 2 London price as $3,271 (+$22) and as an electronic 3M close of $3,294.50 (+$22). They do not reconcile with each other or with Westmetall’s settlement. All listed, NOT reconciled.

⊘ Alumina day session: the price passed and the positioning did not — the brief’s own test failed on both legs

  • AO2610: open 2,693, high 2,740, low 2,684, close 2,708, settlement 2,716, prior settlement 2,683. Close-to-close +15 (+0.56%); against the prior settlement +33 (+1.23%). Volume 244,688 (+82.4%); OI 135,511 (−8,781).
  • ⊘ The prior edition’s test read: “a day-session close above 2,718 on RISING open interest upgrades positioning confirmation to trend confirmation.” The result was a close of 2,708 on open interest DOWN 8,781. Neither leg was met.
  • ⊘ Open interest fell for a FOURTH consecutive session. From August 27’s 280,950: 228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511 — cumulatively −145,439 lots, or −51.8%, in four sessions. The 8,459-lot accumulation bar of the 23:15 candle did not survive daylight.
  • ⚑ But the price did not fail — it rose. The settlement of 2,716 came within 2 of cost caliber one (2,718); the day high of 2,740 matched the prior night’s high to the tick; and the forward curve rose with it, AO2611 closing 2,716, AO2612 2,727 and AO2701 2,738, the whole strip up 19 to 30.
  • ⚑ Averages: MA5 2,670.00, MA10 2,671.50, MA20 2,683.30, MA30 2,683.03, MA40 2,693.30, MA60 2,744.57. The close cleared the first FIVE (by 38.00, 36.50, 24.70, 24.97 and 14.70), reclaiming MA40 and moving from four of six to five of six; only MA60 remains, 36.57 above. The 20-session percentile jumped from 69.9% to 83.2% and the 60-session from 24.3% to 28.9%.
  • ⊘ Then the following night gave it back: last 2,695, back below MA40, on a fifth consecutive open-interest decline.
  • Alumina complex volume 398,886; complex OI 459,403 (−16,928).
  • AD2610 closed 23,390 (−45, −0.19%), settlement 23,360, OI 6,284 (−497), above ALL SIX of its averages for a third session (MA5 23,334.00, MA10 23,188.00, MA20 23,269.50, MA30 23,244.17, MA40 23,168.38, MA60 23,105.92). The AD−AL discount WIDENED from 675 to 710.

⊘ September 2 spot: only South China rose, and six of the nine calibers fell

  • Shanghai spot 24,080 (−30, range 24,060–24,100); Changjiang 24,080 (−30, range 24,060–24,100); Zhongyuan 24,080 (−30); Shanghai Wumao 24,080 (−30).
  • ⚑ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is retrievable again this edition at 24,130 (−30); Nanhai’s own Shanghai A00 caliber is also 24,130 (−30, range 24,080–24,180); China Hongqiao 24,240 (−30).
  • ⚑ All three risers are in South China: Guangdong Nanchu 24,320 (+40, range 24,290–24,350); Nanhai/Foshan 24,600 (+30, range 24,550–24,650); Chalco South China 24,300 (+20).
  • Chalco’s other three regions all fell: East China 24,080 (−30), Southwest 24,110 (−20), Central China 23,950 (−40).
  • ⊘ The basis slipped from exactly zero back to −20 (Shanghai spot 24,080 against AL2610’s close of 24,100), and to −25 against the front-month AL2609 close of 24,105, from −15.
  • ⊘ All three spreads widened: Nanhai−Shanghai 520 (from 460), Nanchu−Shanghai 240 (from 170), Chalco South−East 220 (from 170). A four-session narrowing sequence broke on its fifth test.
  • ⊘ A separate Changjiang caliber describes the premium as having turned to +15 from flat. It does not reconcile with the −20 basis computed here; both are listed, neither is reconciled.
  • ⊘ SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and its regional transaction premia were again not retrievable for September 2.

Interpretation: of the prior edition’s two readings, one is revised and one is broken

  • ⚑ The prior edition recorded the falsification of its own “metal refuses to bid for the board” reading. This edition must record the other half: spot fell 30 against a board that fell 10, spot underperformed again, and the basis went from zero back to −20. One session of repair did not become a pattern (interpretation).
  • ⊘ And the companion reading — that South China’s structural tightness has faded — was reinforced last edition and is BROKEN this one: all three spreads widened, and they widened because South China was the only region that rose. South China is once again the sole region with an expanding physical premium (interpretation).

⚑⊘ Cost and the overseas physical market: one leg up, one leg down, and the downward one is harder

  • ⊘ The hardest new number in the edition is bearish: producers offered Japanese buyers Q4 2026 premiums of $310–325/mt for October–December shipment, down 18% to 22% on the quarter. A Chinese caliber reports it directly as “cut to $310”. Against the $350–353 Q2 settlement and the $270 spot premium this brief carries, that is the overseas physical market repricing itself down by roughly a fifth in a single negotiation.
  • ⚑ The opposing item is also new: over the past two weeks the spot price of imported Guinean bauxite has moved up to a mainstream $72–73 per dry tonne. September long-term contract offers from the major miners were held FLAT with August, implying a landed long-term cost of $73–74 per dry tonne, with freight approaching $40/mt. The ore cost floor is rising.
  • Changjiang composite alumina: East China 2,730 and South China 2,665, both unchanged on the day. ⊘ SMM’s alumina index and Chalco’s five regional listings remain login-walled and are still carried at August 27 (index 2,676; Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660).
  • ⊘ ADC12 now carries THREE unreconciled calibers: the 23,900 this brief has been carrying, a Changjiang spot alloy quote of 24,000 (unchanged), and a Changjiang composite East China quote of 23,615 (+100). A356.2 is quoted 24,400. All listed; no new spread is computed from them.
  • Carried: September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance; secondary operating rate 49.1%; scrap 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Port Klang FOB $3,090.

3 · Inventory

⚑ London resumed drawing, the domestic weekly caliber was rewritten as a ten-week decline, and billet finally updated

  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,225 mt, −500 — the largest single-session draw since the 35-day streak ended on August 19. “The overseas draw has stopped” is retired after two sessions.
  • ⚑ The SHFE weekly caliber was rewritten this edition: 391,498 mt for the week to August 28, −12,299 w/w, described as the TENTH consecutive weekly decline and a cumulative draw of roughly 135,800 mt over ten weeks. This brief had been carrying only the single-week change.
  • ⚑ Billet finally has a new print, and it is lower: SMM puts national mainstream-consumption billet inventory at 140,500 mt on August 31, +1,000 against the prior Thursday and −4,000 against the prior Monday. The 143,000 mt five-year seasonal high this brief has been carrying is superseded; the risk is eased, not removed.
  • ⊘ There is no new social inventory figure this edition. SMM publishes on Mondays and Thursdays, and today IS Thursday: the 837,000 mt (−15,000 w/w, read as an eighth consecutive draw and −169,000 mt cumulative from July 23) is carried by construction for one more morning and is tested within hours.
  • Carried: bonded 116,000 mt (−1,000); SHFE registered warrants 245,510 mt (−28,691); SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827); cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500). ⊘ SHFE daily warrant tonnages not retrievable.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ Inventory is the cleanest column in the edition: overseas moved from “not drawing” back to “drawing”, the domestic weekly caliber expanded from one week to ten, and billet was revised down 2,500 from a five-year high. Three items, one direction (interpretation).
  • ⊘ But not one of the three is today’s data — LME is September 2, the SHFE weekly is August 28, billet is August 31. The real test is this afternoon’s SMM social inventory print (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ ADP missed badly, one day before payrolls, and it missed on the dovish side

  • ⚑ US private payrolls rose 38,000 in August against a 47,000 consensus — the weakest since January — and July was revised UP to 46,000. July factory orders rose 0.9% against a 0.6% consensus.
  • ⚑ US equities rebounded across the board: S&P 500 7,666.60 (+35.21, +0.46%), Nasdaq 26,217.83 (+118.05, +0.45%), Dow 53,061.95 (+294.63, +0.56%). The 10-year Treasury yield held 4.796%, unchanged — the run-up at the long end paused.
  • ⚑ The dollar stalled: two calibers this morning read 99.538 (−0.02%) and 99.563 (+0.01%), while a September 2 intraday caliber describes it as “strongly supported near 99.76”. Three calibers, all listed; the direction moved from “extending the rebound” to “standing still”. USD/JPY 158.93 (−1.24) — the yen firmed materially.
  • ⊘ September hike odds: 66% on a CME FedWatch caliber and “roughly 70%” on another, against the 62% and “above 65%” carried. A FOURTH consecutive edition of unreconciled Fed calibers. ⊘ The October strip is absent for a SIXTH consecutive edition.
  • US August payrolls publish Friday, September 4, at roughly 90,000.

⚑ Gold turned higher — the third test of the inflation-shock reading answered bullish, through the wrong channel

  • ⚑ December gold settled $4,414.60 (+$18.20, +0.41%), the first rise in five sessions, while Brent extended to $95.63 (+1.04%) and WTI to $91.01 (+0.88%) for a third consecutive gain.
  • ⚑ The prior edition’s rule was explicit: “If crude extends today and gold turns higher, the shock should be reclassified as geopolitical supply and read net bullish for aluminium.” The rule fired, and it fired bullish.
  • ⊘ But it must be recorded that the sources attribute gold’s rise to the weak ADP print, not to crude. The rule fired in the bullish direction through a channel it did not assume. This brief records the contamination rather than booking the point (interpretation).
  • ⊘ Gold carries several unreconciled calibers: NY gold lost $4,330 intraday (−1.52%); spot gold $4,283.74 (−1%); SHFE gold closed −2.37% at 938.22 yuan/g and SHFE silver −3.86%. The Beijing-time quotes cover the September 1 US session rather than the September 2 close; all listed, none reconciled.

Geopolitics and external rates

  • ⚑ The deputy governor for security of Iran’s Khuzestan province says the previous night’s US strikes on the province killed 7 and injured 8; separate reporting describes US strikes across southern Iran on the night of September 1 that reached a wedding gathering in Kuhestak, Hormozgan, killing 4 and injuring 50. The Hormuz situation has not eased.
  • Japan’s 10-year JGB yield touched 3.015%, the highest since September 1996. The UK 30-year gilt reached 5.9% intraday on September 1, the highest since 1998, with the 10-year near 5.25%. Hang Seng fell more than 1% to 25,075.83.
  • China’s Ministry of Finance sold 73 billion yuan of 30-year bonds at 2.1405% against a 2.1400% expectation, bid-to-cover 5.88.

Interpretation: the net direction of the macro column

  • ⚑ The net moves back from the prior edition’s neutral-to-BEARISH to NEUTRAL. The bullish items are a large ADP miss, gold turning, and the long end pausing. The bearish items are September pricing at 66% to roughly 70%, a sixth missing October strip, and a dollar that merely stalled rather than retreated.
  • ⊘ Tomorrow’s payrolls at roughly 90,000 is the only event this week capable of collapsing those three into one. Until it prints, the macro column should not be assigned a direction for aluminium (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⊘ The overseas physical market: the largest quarterly premium cut in this brief’s record

  • ⊘ NEW: major global producers have offered Japanese buyers Q4 2026 premiums of $310–325/mt for October–December shipment, down 18% to 22% on the current quarter; a Chinese caliber reports it as “cut to $310”.
  • ⊘ The weight of this number is that it is a physical contract, not a screen. This brief has been listing “Japan’s quarterly premium rose from $86 to $350–353 across three quarters” as a bullish factor. That trend reverses for the first time in the Q4 offer round, and it reverses by a double-digit percentage (interpretation).
  • Carried: MJP spot premium $270/mt (−$10); US scrap exports +21% in H1 to 1.25 million mt.

⚑ The cost side: bauxite is rising, alumina is liquidating, anode is flat

  • ⚑ NEW: spot prices for imported Guinean bauxite have moved up to a mainstream $72–73 per dry tonne over two weeks; September long-term offers from the major miners were held flat with August, implying a landed long-term cost of $73–74 per dry tonne, with freight approaching $40/mt. Against the FOB $38–42 and CIF $70–74 this brief carries, the ore cost floor is rising.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s September 2 settlement of 2,716 sits just 2 below cost caliber one (2,718), and four of Chalco’s five carried regional listings (2,730–2,785) remain above the board.
  • ⊘ But open interest has left for four consecutive sessions, −145,439 lots (−51.8%), with a further −1,961 overnight. Cost is rising, price is rising, and money is leaving — the three do not agree this edition (interpretation).
  • Carried: China’s built alumina capacity 120.95 million mt/yr against 95.90 million operating, roughly 25.05 million mt idle at a 79.3% utilisation rate; August output expected to exceed 8 million mt.
  • Carried: RUSAL’s proposal to mothball 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity plus the SUBR bauxite mine (still a proposal); Guinea’s export cap target of roughly 150 million mt/yr; Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cut of 1.2 mtpa from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200–300 kt; Alunorte held at 50% on gas.
  • Carried: Qatalum at roughly 60% of nameplate; Alba lines 1–3 down (19% of capacity); EGA’s Al Taweelah restarted from 18% to 25%; China’s smelter operating rate 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling, leaving no domestic supply elasticity.

Demand and policy

  • Carried: RatingDog August manufacturing PMI 51.5 (a six-month high); NBS August 49.8; the aluminium processing composite PMI 48.7%. Only one of the three is above fifty, and RatingDog’s gap to the NBS is 1.7 points.
  • Carried: weekly operating rates through August 27 — extrusion 50.6% (−0.2pp), sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3pp), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6pp). No update this edition.
  • ⚑ NEW (policy): China’s Industrial Green and Low-Carbon Development Plan for the 15th Five-Year Period has formally landed, covering steel and non-ferrous across capacity, process and value. ⊘ No detail is available on its treatment of the primary aluminium capacity ceiling, so no supply assumption is adjusted here.
  • ⊘ The genuine demand evidence this edition is negative: spot fell more than the board, the basis went from zero back to −20, and six of the nine calibers declined. The prior edition’s “downstream is taking metal at higher levels” was not extended (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

September 2 transactions and sentiment

  • East China: Shanghai spot 24,080 (−30), basis −20. Spot’s decline of 30 is three times the board’s 10 — holders conceded faster than the screen did.
  • South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,600 (+30), Nanchu 24,320 (+40), Chalco South 24,300 (+20) — the only region in the country that rose. Nanhai−Shanghai widened to 520, breaking the four-session narrowing sequence.
  • Central China: Chalco Central China 23,950 (−40), the largest decline in the country, back below the 24,000 handle.
  • ⚑ East and South China separated in direction for the first time in this run: on a single day East fell 30 while South rose 20 to 40. In this brief’s record that is the signature of regional tightness in South China (interpretation).
  • Shipment willingness: moves from WEAK-ish (holders reluctant) back to NEUTRAL — holders followed the board down and by a larger margin. Purchasing willingness: moves from NEUTRAL to WEAK-ish — the basis re-widened, which means buyers demanded a better relative price even as the absolute price fell (interpretation).
  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable; the above is inferred from price, magnitude and spread behaviour, and is not an SMM index.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑ The September 2 night session rose on RISING open interest: AL2610 last 24,235 (+135 on the day close), OI +6,478 to 248,809, volume 91,073 (+47.7%) — the first time in this advance that the aluminium board itself rose on new money.
  • ⚑ The night high of 24,290 is exactly the August 12 close and the top of the twenty-session close range — the second level the prior watchlist named.
  • ⚑ The night low of 24,000 is the first session in three that did not trade 23,980.
  • ⚑ The day high of 24,170 is exactly the August 14 high — the first level the prior watchlist named — and it was reached.
  • ⚑ AL2610 closed 24,100, above all six of its averages for a third consecutive session, by 95.00 to 529.92.
  • ⚑ 23,980 has now been tested across three consecutive trading sessions without breaking.
  • ⚑ The LME curve left exactly zero into a $2.00 backwardation — the strongest of the three outcomes the prior watchlist named.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 246,225 mt (−500), the largest single-session draw since August 19; “the draw has stopped” is retired.
  • ⚑ LME cash is above all six of its own averages for a second consecutive session, by $19.80 to $39.10.
  • ⚑ LME cash sits at only the 38.5th percentile of its 20-session range against SHFE’s 72.7% — London retains materially more room.
  • ⚑ SHFE weekly warehouse stocks of 391,498 mt are a TENTH consecutive weekly decline, roughly −135,800 mt across ten weeks.
  • ⚑ Billet inventory was revised down to 140,500 mt at August 31, superseding the 143,000 mt five-year seasonal high.
  • ⚑ Bonded stocks 116,000 mt (−1,000) — external material is not returning; SHFE registered warrants fell 28,691 on the week.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s September 2 settlement of 2,716 is 2 below cost caliber one; the close of 2,708 (+15, +0.56%) cleared five of six averages and reclaimed MA40.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s day high of 2,740 matched the prior night’s high to the tick, and the forward strip rose with it — AO2611 2,716, AO2612 2,727, AO2701 2,738, up 19 to 30.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s 20-session percentile jumped from 69.9% to 83.2%.
  • ⚑ Imported Guinean bauxite spot rose to $72–73/dry mt with September long-term flat and freight near $40 — the ore cost floor is rising.
  • ⚑ Four of Chalco’s five carried regional alumina listings (2,730–2,785) remain above the board.
  • ⚑ September prebaked anode at 5,730 yuan/mt (5,745 on acceptance) — the carbon cost leg has not retreated.
  • ⚑ Brent $95.63 (+1.04%) and WTI $91.01 (+0.88%), a third consecutive gain — the energy cost tail persists.
  • ⚑ US August ADP at just 38,000 against 47,000 expected, the weakest since January — a dovish signal one day before payrolls.
  • ⚑ December gold $4,414.60 (+0.41%), the first rise in five sessions; the prior edition’s rule fired in the bullish direction.
  • ⚑ The 10-year held 4.796% unchanged, pausing the long-end run-up, and all three US equity indices rebounded.
  • ⚑ The dollar stalled between 99.538 and 99.76 rather than extending; USD/JPY fell 1.24 to 158.93.
  • ⚑ All three South China spreads widened, and they widened because South China alone rose — regional physical tightness has reappeared.
  • ⚑ The Shanghai Huatong caliber is retrievable again at 24,130, improving this edition’s spot coverage.
  • ⚑ AD2610 closed 23,390 above all six of its averages for a third session, and the night added 150 to 23,540.
  • ⚑ The forward alumina and bauxite book is still cut or capped in five places (RUSAL, Guinea, Yarwun, Alcoa, Alunorte).
  • ⚑ Qatalum at ~60% of nameplate, Alba −19%, Alunorte at 50% — the overseas smelting and refining gaps persist.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate of 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling leaves no domestic supply elasticity, and non-ferrous smelting profits of +91.8% make relaxing that ceiling less likely.
  • ⚑ Social inventory of 837,000 mt is carried as an eighth consecutive draw, cumulative −169,000 mt from July 23.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘ Japanese Q4 2026 premium offers at $310–325/mt, down 18% to 22% on the quarter — the overseas physical market repricing itself down by roughly a fifth, and the hardest new number in the edition.
  • ⊘ The SHFE day session failed at the named 24,170 and closed 24,100 (−10) on volume up 21.1% and open interest down 6,267 — more paper, less position, a lower close.
  • ⊘ The AL complex shed 9,492 lots, so the main contract’s decline is not fully explained by the roll into AL2611.
  • ⊘ The 20-session close percentile fell from 74.1% to 72.7% and the 60-session from 89.8% to 89.2%; the retracement worsened from 27.9% to 29.5%.
  • ⊘ MA60 fell for a THIRD consecutive session at an elevated price (−2.75) — the longest average still has not turned.
  • ⊘ The SHFE-LME ratio rose back from 7.3934 to 7.4029; London’s leadership lasted exactly one session.
  • ⊘ LME cash itself fell $5.50 and 3M fell $7.50.
  • ⊘ London’s MA20 clearance narrowed from $11.32 to $6.60 — the whole six-of-six structure rests on $6.60.
  • ⊘ London’s 60-session percentile rose only as a window artefact; the unaffected 20-session reading fell from 41.4% to 38.5%.
  • ⊘ Alumina failed this brief’s own test on both legs: it required 2,718 on rising open interest and delivered 2,708 on open interest down 8,781.
  • ⊘ Alumina open interest has fallen four consecutive sessions, −145,439 lots (−51.8%) since August 27, with a fifth decline of 1,961 overnight.
  • ⊘ Alumina’s night session gave the day’s move back, closing 2,695 and losing MA40 again.
  • ⊘ Alumina’s 60-session percentile is still only 28.9%, and MA60 (2,744.57) is 36.57 above.
  • ⊘ Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were login-walled for a THIRD consecutive edition, so the industry-confirmation leg remains untestable.
  • ⊘ The basis slipped from exactly zero back to −20, with spot falling 30 against a board that fell 10 — one session of repair did not become a pattern.
  • ⊘ Six of the nine spot calibers fell, with Chalco Central China −40 the largest decline and back below 24,000.
  • ⊘ The four-session South China narrowing sequence broke; the judgement the prior edition described as “reinforced” was broken this edition.
  • ⊘ September hike pricing rose to 66% and “roughly 70%” from 62% and “above 65%”.
  • ⊘ The October fed funds strip is absent for a SIXTH consecutive edition — the mid-path of the Fed remains a blind spot.
  • ⊘ The dollar did not retreat, it merely stalled; one September 2 caliber puts it “strongly supported near 99.76”.
  • ⊘ Gold’s rise is attributed to ADP rather than to crude, so the prior edition’s rule fired through a channel it did not assume and the point is not booked.
  • ⊘ China’s roughly 25 million mt of idle alumina refining capacity still exceeds the sum of every cut in the forward book, and August output is expected to exceed 8 million mt.
  • ⊘ There is still no new domestic social inventory print; the eighth-consecutive-draw claim is carried by construction and was not confirmed this edition either.
  • ⊘ Cast alloy inventory at 28,100 mt remains carried, with the second accelerating weekly build unresolved; Canada’s September 8 counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% with aluminium bars named; EGA’s Al Taweelah has refilled from 18% to 25%.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The prior edition named two upside levels and the market touched both of them to the tick inside one trading day, one in each session, and the two sessions gave opposite answers about what that meant: the day printed 24,170 — exactly the August 14 high the watchlist called “only 25 away” — failed there, bottomed at 23,980 for the third consecutive trading session, and closed 24,100, down 10, on volume up 21.1% and open interest down 6,267, which is more paper, less position and a lower close made off a level this brief itself had named, and reads only as rejection; then the night session opened sixty BELOW the close at 24,040, ran to 24,290 — exactly the August 12 close and the top of the twenty-session close range, the second named level — and ended at 24,235 with open interest UP 6,478 lots on volume up 47.7%, which is precisely the configuration the prior watchlist said would require revising the “the board did not participate” judgement, so that judgement is revised here, because it is the first time in this advance that the aluminium board itself has risen on new money rather than being dragged higher by London and the physical; London answered its own test in the bullish form too, and the test was specific, because a dead-flat curve had exactly one precedent in this brief’s verified record, August 17, after which cash fell $90.00 in three sessions — the curve left zero and it left it upward, cash settling $3,255.50 against a 3M of $3,253.50 for a $2.00 backwardation, the outcome the watchlist said would ratify the advance structurally, while LME stocks resumed drawing at 246,225 mt, −500, the largest single-session draw since the thirty-five-day streak ended on August 19, retiring “the draw has stopped” after two sessions; the price of that was cash falling $5.50 and the thinnest average on the London board getting thinner, the MA20 clearance narrowing from $11.32 to $6.60, so London’s entire six-of-six structure now rests on six dollars and sixty cents; alumina is the clearest failure in the edition and it failed on both legs of the test this brief wrote for it, which required a day close above 2,718 on rising open interest and produced a close of 2,708 on open interest down 8,781, a fourth consecutive decline that takes the cumulative fall since August 27 to 145,439 lots or 51.8% of the book, with the following night giving the move back at 2,695 below MA40 on a fifth decline — yet the price itself did not fail, because the settlement of 2,716 came within 2 of cost caliber one, MA40 was reclaimed for five of six, the day high of 2,740 matched the prior night’s high exactly and the whole forward strip rose 19 to 30, so price is confirming while positioning is not, which is the reverse of the night session that produced the claim, and this brief books alumina as UNRESOLVED rather than as either outcome; the physical column deteriorated without ambiguity, because the four-session South China narrowing sequence broke on its fifth test with all three spreads widening, and it broke because only the three South China calibers rose while the other six fell, while the basis slipped from exactly zero back to −20 with spot falling 30 against a board that fell 10, and the hardest new number in the edition is bearish, physical and overseas — Japanese Q4 2026 premium offers at $310–325/mt, down 18% to 22% on the quarter, the overseas physical market repricing itself down by roughly a fifth in one negotiation; macro moved back to neutral, with ADP at just 38,000 against 47,000 expected and the weakest since January one day before payrolls, gold turning higher for the first time in five sessions to $4,414.60 while crude extended a third day, which under the rule the prior edition wrote reclassifies the shock toward geopolitical supply and reads net bullish for aluminium — except that the sources attribute gold’s rise to ADP rather than to crude, so the rule fired in the bullish direction through a channel it did not assume and this brief records the contamination instead of booking the point, while September pricing still rose to 66% and roughly 70%, the October strip is missing for a sixth edition and the dollar merely stalled between 99.5 and 99.8 rather than retreating; the cost floor moved up underneath all of it, with imported Guinean bauxite spot at $72–73 per dry tonne, September long-term flat and freight near $40, an ore market firming beneath a refining market that is still liquidating; so the conclusion is that this is the session in which the metal’s own board finally bid — but it bid after the bell, and everything that trades in daylight, the day session, the physical premium, the South China structure, the Japanese quarterly and the alumina book, went the other way: the bulls own the overnight tape and the London curve, and the bears own every physical print in the edition, with payrolls tomorrow and this afternoon’s SMM inventory the first genuine test of a destocking claim carried by construction for two editions.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (September 3) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ Whether the night’s advance on rising open interest is confirmed in daylight — the edition’s only first-order question. The night ended at 24,235 with open interest up 6,478 lots, the first time in this advance the aluminium board bid for itself. The test is clean: a day close above 24,235 with open interest rising again upgrades “the board is participating” from a single overnight event to a trend fact, and puts 24,290 and 24,300 immediately above; a fall back below 24,100 on falling open interest reclassifies last night’s bar as an overnight impulse, possibly tied to the offshore tape or a headline — which is exactly what happened to alumina’s own 23:15 bar one session ago.
  • ⚑ 24,290 is today’s single most important price, because it is three things at once. It is the August 12 close, the top of the twenty-session close range, and last night’s high. A day close above it fully retraces the August 3–12 decline and leaves only 24,300 (the sixty-session close top), 24,340 (the August 13 high) and 24,490 (the August 12 high) overhead; repeated rejection there converts the level from “touched” into “confirmed resistance” and makes last night’s open-interest build a purchase at the top.
  • ⚑ 23,980 and 24,000 — the fourth test after three. 23,980 has been the low of three consecutive trading sessions, and last night’s 24,000 was the first low in three that did not reach it. If today’s day session prints 23,980 again and holds, the “defended level” reading is effectively established; if it breaks, the question this brief has said twice it cannot resolve — defended level or resting order — is answered in the worst way, with MA5 (24,005.00), MA20 (23,941.25) and MA10 (23,861.00) the references below.
  • ⚑ This afternoon’s SMM social inventory print — the first genuine test in two editions. 837,000 mt, an eighth consecutive draw and −169,000 mt cumulative from July 23 have been carried by construction for two editions and are settled today. Watch it alongside the three inventory lines that already improved: whether LME draws for a second consecutive session after yesterday’s −500 (the largest since August 19), whether the SHFE weekly extends to an eleventh consecutive decline, and whether billet continues lower from 140,500 mt. A build in the social figure would require withdrawing this edition’s “cleanest column in the table” characterisation immediately.
  • ⚑ Alumina: the unresolved verdict must settle today, and the discriminating levels are 2,695 and 2,718. The night’s last print of 2,695 is already back below MA40 (2,693.30 has now been crossed in both directions inside two sessions), while the settlement of 2,716 sits 2 below cost caliber one. A day close above 2,718 that ends the four-session open-interest decline resolves the price-versus-positioning divergence bullishly; a close below MA20 (2,683.30) on a sixth consecutive decline formally reclassifies the 8,459-lot bar of September 1 as a single impulse that has been rejected. Watch also whether Chalco’s five regional listings finally become retrievable — untestable for three editions running.
  • ⚑ US August payrolls tonight (roughly 90,000) against ADP’s miss. ADP printed just 38,000, the weakest since January, and September hike pricing nevertheless sits at 66% to roughly 70%. If payrolls also undershoots materially and hike pricing does not fall, the market is pricing inflation rather than growth and aluminium’s valuation leg stays under pressure; if payrolls is weak, pricing falls and the dollar breaks below 99.5, the macro column turns bullish for the first time in this run. Watch alongside it whether the October strip finally becomes retrievable after six consecutive absences.
  • ⚑ Whether spot stops falling, and whether the South China separation persists. Spot fell 30 against a board that fell 10 and the basis went from zero back to −20. If spot follows the night higher today and the basis returns inside −10, “downstream is taking metal at higher levels” is restored; if the board rises while spot lags again and the basis widens beyond −50, the overnight open-interest build has no physical endorsement behind it. Watch whether Nanhai−Shanghai (520), Nanchu−Shanghai (240) and Chalco South−East (220) widen for a second consecutive session — if they do, South China’s tightness becomes a new sequence rather than a one-day event.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源、尚未执行的提议或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变的数据。本期特别提示:夜盘数据为实时报价而非结算价,将于明日由交易所文件重述;中铝五地氧化铝报价连续第三期因需登录未取得,该项判别标准为「无法检验」而非「未通过」;本期无新的国内社会库存印记,连续第八周去库的说法按构造沿用,并将于今日下午受检验;黄金、美元、伦铝、ADC12 与 9 月加息概率均存在两条以上并列口径,本简报不做调和;伦敦 60 日分位的上升为窗口滚动造成的算术产物,已在正文中标明;日本四季度升水 310–325 美元为报盘而非结算,尚未定案。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, proposals that have not been executed, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “carried” are unchanged by construction because no new data has published since the prior edition. Special notes for this edition: night-session figures are live quotes rather than settlements and will be restated from the exchange file tomorrow; Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were login-walled for a third consecutive edition, so that half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE rather than failed; there is no new domestic social inventory print, so the eighth-consecutive-draw claim is carried by construction and is tested this afternoon; gold, the dollar, the London price, ADC12 and the September hike probability each carry two or more calibers, listed and deliberately not reconciled; London’s rising 60-session percentile is an arithmetic artefact of the rolling window and is marked as such in the body; and the Japanese Q4 premium of $310–325 is an offer range, not a settlement.