Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

SHFE jumps 270 to 24,370, its highest close since June 5, on rising open interest. LME stocks fall to their lowest since 1990.沪铝在持仓增加下大涨 270 元至 24,370,创 6 月 5 日以来最高收盘;LME 库存降至 1990 年以来最低。

Friday, September 4, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Friday September 4 (Asia), BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete September 3 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards taken from the exchange's own daily file, including complex open interest; all eighteen SHFE moving averages recomputed exactly from the exchange's published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series, whose September 2 values reproduce the prior edition's published figures to the yuan on every one of the eighteen AL, AO and AD averages AND on all six published percentiles; the September 3 LME session from Westmetall, whose September 2 row is unrevised and whose six recomputed cash averages and both percentiles reproduce the prior edition exactly; a LIVE quote for the September 3 night session, which closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning and which contains the edition's decisive reversal; the full September 3 spot table across nine calibers, all of which rose; Chalco's four regional ingot listings; the September 3 macro close including the Waller headline and the CME FedWatch repricing; two Reuters/ING intraday London calibers; a Mysteel social-inventory caliber that does NOT reconcile with the SMM caliber this brief carries; a September 3 bonded print; and a September 3 national alumina inventory print. ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: SMM's absolute A00 quotation, its regional transaction premia, its alumina index and Chalco's five regional alumina listings for September 3 (all login-walled — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a FOURTH consecutive edition rather than failed); the SMM Thursday social-inventory print the prior watchlist named as this edition's first-order test, which did NOT become retrievable, so that test is UNRESOLVED and a competing Mysteel caliber is carried in its place; SHFE daily warrant tonnages (the exchange endpoint returned 404 this morning); the SHFE weekly warehouse print, which publishes this afternoon; the Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao spot calibers for September 3; and the October fed funds strip, absent for a SEVENTH consecutive edition.
Steven Yuan
⚑ THE PRIOR EDITION'S FIRST-ORDER TEST PASSED ON BOTH LEGS, IN DAYLIGHT It required a day close above 24,235 with open interest rising again. AL2610 closed 24,370 — 135 above — with open interest UP 14,516 lots. 'The board is participating' is now a trend fact, not an overnight event
⚑ AL2610: THE LARGEST SINGLE-SESSION GAIN OF THE ENTIRE ADVANCE Open 24,040, high 24,425, low 24,000, CLOSE 24,370, settlement 24,275. Close-to-close +270 (+1.12%); against the prior settlement of 24,060, +310. The biggest up-day in at least thirty sessions
⚑ ON THE HIGHEST VOLUME IN SIXTY SESSIONS AND THE SECOND-LARGEST BUILD IN FORTY Volume 229,600, +40.3% on 163,674 — rank 1 of the last 60 sessions. Open interest 256,847, +14,516, second only to August 17's +16,853 across the last 40 (derivation)
⚑ 24,290 WAS NOT DEFENDED — IT WAS CLEARED BY 80, AND 24,300 WENT WITH IT The prior edition called 24,290 'today's single most important price' because it was three things at once. The close is 80 above it, and above 24,300, the sixty-session close top. The whole August 3–12 decline is retraced and exceeded
⚑ HIGHEST CLOSE SINCE JUNE 5 — SIXTY-THREE SESSIONS The last close at or above 24,370 was June 5's 24,435. Both close percentiles now read 100.0%: the 20-session (floor 23,595, Aug 20) and the 60-session (floor 22,445, Jul 1)
⚑ SHFE IS ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES BY 255.00 TO 795.08 — AND MA60 FINALLY TURNED MA5 24,115.00 (+110.00), MA10 23,938.50 (+77.50), MA20 23,969.25 (+28.00), MA30 23,824.67 (+34.00), MA40 23,663.75 (+31.25), MA60 23,574.92 (+4.84 — UP, after three consecutive declines)
⊘ BUT THE DAY HIGH STOPPED 65 SHORT OF THE ONE LEVEL THAT MATTERED ABOVE 24,425 against August 12's 24,490. The board could not reach the twenty-session intraday top inside the day session (derivation)
⚑ THEN THE NIGHT WENT THROUGH IT — 24,510, THE HIGHEST TICK SINCE JUNE 5 AL2610 opened 24,475, a hundred and five ABOVE the close, and printed 24,510. The last print at or above that level was June 5's 24,520, sixty-three sessions ago
⊘ AND THEN HANDED THE WHOLE THING BACK — THE PATTERN INVERTS EXACTLY Night last 24,390: only 20 above the day close, 85 below its own open, 120 below its VWAP of 24,437.31. Open interest 257,025, UP JUST 178. Volume 71,757, −21.2% on the prior night
⊘ SO THE TWO SESSIONS SWAPPED ROLES FROM THE PRIOR EDITION Last edition the day rejected and the night bid on +6,478 lots. This edition the day bid on +14,516 and the night rejected on +178. The identical structure, in the opposite order (interpretation)
⚑ LONDON: CASH $3,303.00, +$47.50 (+1.46%), THE HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 12 3M settled $3,303.50 (+$50.00). Reuters describes it as a fifth straight advance and a three-week high, attributing it to physical tightness and a softer dollar
⚑ AND LME STOCKS AT 245,975 mt ARE CALLED THE LOWEST SINCE 1990 −250 on the day, a second consecutive draw. The sequence since the 35-day streak ended reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 → 246,225 → 245,975. This is the hardest bullish number in the edition
⊘ BUT THE BACKWARDATION LASTED EXACTLY ONE SESSION Cash $3,303.00 against 3M $3,303.50 is a $0.50 CONTANGO, from the $2.00 backwardation the prior edition called the structurally ratifying outcome. It went back the other way immediately
⚑ LME AVERAGES (EXACT): THE $6.60 PROBLEM IS GONE MA5 $3,250.80, MA10 $3,229.40, MA20 $3,252.60, MA30 $3,238.88, MA40 $3,220.45, MA60 $3,230.01. Above all six by $52.20 to $82.55. The MA20 clearance widened from $6.60 to $50.40
⚑ AND LONDON STILL HAS ROOM THAT SHANGHAI DOES NOT LME's 20-session close percentile rose from 38.5% to 63.4% and the 60-session from 40.9% to 50.9%. Against SHFE's 100.0% and 100.0%, London remains the less extended of the two boards
⊘ THE RATIO FELL FROM 7.4029 TO 7.3781 — LONDON LED AGAIN 24,370 ÷ $3,303.00. London rose 1.46% against Shanghai's 1.12%. The compression the prior edition welcomed and then saw reverse has resumed (derivation)
⚑ THE MACRO COLUMN TURNED BULLISH FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS RUN — ON WALLER Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be willing to support holding rates if there is continued progress toward 2%. September 25bp hike odds fell to 50.5% (also reported 50.4%) from 63.2%
⚑ AND THAT IS THE PRIOR WATCHLIST'S CONDITION, MET A DAY EARLY AND WITHOUT PAYROLLS It said: 'if payrolls is weak, pricing falls and the dollar breaks below 99.5, the macro column turns bullish for the first time in this run.' Pricing fell and the dollar broke 99 — on a speech, before the data
⚑ THE DOLLAR FELL 0.69% TO 98.91 — BELOW 99 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS BRIEF'S RUN This morning's live caliber reads 98.9575, with the session range 98.9145–99.0460. Against the 99.538–99.76 band carried, this is a decisive break, not a stall
⚑ THE YEN ROSE MORE THAN 2% — AND IT WAS NOT INTERVENTION USD/JPY to 155.36, the dollar's weakest since late February; ~155.65 this morning. BOJ data showed no official intervention behind Wednesday's move; the driver is bets on a hike at the September 17–18 meeting
⚑ GOLD ADDED 2.8% AND THE LONG END FELL FOR A SECOND DAY COMEX caliber $4,539.90 from $4,414.60 (+$125.30, +2.84%); Reuters puts the move at +2.3%. The 10-year fell to 4.761% from 4.796% and the 2-year to 4.322% from 4.379%
⊘ BUT THE GOLD–CRUDE DISCRIMINATOR IS NOW DEAD, NOT CONTAMINATED The rule assumed gold and crude rising together meant a geopolitical supply shock. This session gold rose 2.8% while BRENT FELL 0.12%, and every source attributes gold to Waller and the dollar. The rule is retired (interpretation)
⚑ EQUITIES HAD THEIR BEST DAY SINCE AUGUST 4 Dow 53,686.11 (+624.16, +1.18%), S&P 500 7,747.71 (+81.11, +1.06%), Nasdaq 26,584.06 (+366.23, +1.40%). WTI $91.30 (+0.32%), a fourth gain; ⊘ Brent $95.52 (−0.12%), its first decline in four
⚑ ALL NINE SPOT CALIBERS ROSE — AFTER A SESSION IN WHICH SIX OF NINE FELL Shanghai spot 24,340 (+260), Changjiang 24,340 (+260), Zhongyuan 24,340 (+260), Nanhai/Foshan 24,850 (+250), Nanchu 24,550 (+230), Nanhai's Shanghai A00 24,410 (+280), Chalco East 24,350 (+270), South 24,550 (+250), Southwest 24,370 (+260), Central 24,210 (+260)
⊘ BUT SPOT LAGGED THE BOARD AND THE BASIS WIDENED FROM −20 TO −30 Spot rose 260 against a board that rose 270. Against the front-month AL2609's 24,365 the basis is −25, unchanged. Still inside the −20 to +30 band the watchlist named, but on its wrong side
⚑⊘ AND SOUTH CHINA LAGGED — ALL THREE SPREADS NARROWED, ANSWERING THE WATCHLIST Nanhai−Shanghai 520 → 510; Nanchu−Shanghai 240 → 210; Chalco South−East 220 → 200. The prior edition asked whether South China's separation would become a sequence. It did not: one day only
⊘ ALUMINA SPLIT ITS TEST AGAIN — THE PRICE LEG PASSED, THE POSITIONING LEG FAILED The test required a close above 2,718 that ENDED the open-interest decline. AO2610 closed 2,725 (+17, +0.63%), 7 above cost caliber one — but open interest fell 7,667 to 127,844, a FIFTH consecutive decline
⊘ AND THE SETTLEMENT WENT THE OTHER WAY FROM THE CLOSE Settlement 2,707 against the prior 2,716 — that is 11 BELOW cost caliber one, having been 2 below. Close above cost, settlement further below it, in the same session (derivation)
⚑ THEN THE NIGHT CLEARED MA60 — ALUMINA'S FIRST SIX-OF-SIX OF THIS RUN AO2610 night: open 2,738, high 2,752, low 2,728, last 2,743, VWAP 2,739.17, volume 100,138 (+50.4%). 2,743 is 1.62 above MA60 (2,741.38). ⊘ Open interest 124,646, −3,198: a SIXTH consecutive decline
⊘ AND NATIONAL ALUMINA INVENTORY IS BUILDING The September 3 weekly assessment puts total national alumina inventory at 7.27 million mt, +8,000. Smelter feedstock +16,000 to 3.444 mt; refinery internal +9,000 to 1.234 mt; port −19,000 to 1.017 mt. ⊘ Those components sum to +6,000, not +8,000; both are listed
⊘ THE EDITION'S NAMED FIRST-ORDER INVENTORY TEST DID NOT RESOLVE The prior watchlist said the SMM Thursday social print was 'the first genuine test in two editions'. It did not become retrievable. The 837,000 mt caliber is therefore neither confirmed nor superseded
⊘ INSTEAD A COMPETING CALIBER ARRIVED, AND IT DOES NOT RECONCILE Mysteel puts China's main-region electrolytic aluminium social inventory at 809,000 mt on August 31, −12,000 w/w. Down in Shanghai, Wuxi, Foshan, Tianjin, Chongqing; up in Shenyang and Gongyi. ~107,000 mt of it is unclear-ownership, low-liquidity material
⚑ AND A THIRD PARTY REWROTE THE SHFE WEEKLY COUNT UPWARD AGAIN Reuters/ING describe 391,498 mt as ELEVEN consecutive weekly declines from a six-year high of 528,885 mt on June 12 — a cumulative −137,387 mt. This brief carried TEN weeks and −135,800 mt. Both listed
⚑ BONDED STOCKS CONFIRMED UNCHANGED ON A SEPTEMBER 3 PRINT Shanghai 89,000 mt plus Guangdong 27,000 mt = 116,000 mt, flat week-on-week. External material is still not returning
⚑ AD2610 CLOSED 23,635 (+245, +1.05%) ABOVE ALL SIX FOR A FOURTH SESSION MA5 23,414.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,281.50, MA30 23,263.17, MA40 23,185.38, MA60 23,114.50. ⊘ The AD−AL discount widened 710 → 735 on the day and to 825 overnight — the widest this brief has recorded
⚑ METHOD: the close series reproduces the prior edition on all EIGHTEEN averages AND all SIX percentiles SHFE from the exchange's own AL2610/AO2610/AD2610 closes; London from 67 Westmetall cash settlements. Every published September 2 average, and the 72.7%/89.2%, 83.2%/28.9% and 38.5%/40.9% percentiles, reproduce exactly

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 9月4日(周五)上午,时点在 09:00 沪铝日盘开盘之前。
  • ⚑ 上期写下的一级检验有两条明确的腿,而日盘把两条都无歧义地通过了;并且这是本轮上涨中,本简报自设的检验第一次在白天被通过。 本期载入 9月3日沪铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金三个完整交易日盘面(取自上期所当日数据文件,含品种合计持仓);9月3日伦敦交易日;以及 9月3日夜盘(归属 9月4日交易日,于今晨 01:00 收市)的实时报价。
  • ⚑ 方法:沪市均线由交易所公布的 AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 收盘序列精确计算;伦敦均线由 67 个现货结算日精确计算。在计算任何 9月3日数值之前,两个序列已先行复算——沪市 9月2日的十八条均线(AL、AO、AD 各六条)、沪铝 72.7%/89.2% 与氧化铝 83.2%/28.9% 两组分位、以及伦敦六条均线与 38.5%/40.9% 分位,与上期公布值逐一分毫不差地吻合,且 Westmetall 未对 9月2日一行作任何修订。
  • ⊘ 未取得:9月3日 SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分区域成交升贴水、氧化铝指数与中铝五地氧化铝报价(仍需登录——氧化铝判别标准的产业确认一项连续第四期为「无法检验」而非「未通过」);⚑⊘ 上期关注清单点名为本期一级检验的 SMM 周四社会库存印记,本期并未变为可取得,因此该检验为「未决」,并由一条互不吻合的钢联口径暂代;上期所日度仓单吨位(交易所端点今晨返回 404);上期所周度库存(今日下午发布);9月3日的上海华通、上海物贸与中国宏桥现货口径;以及 10 月联邦基金利率条——连续第七期缺失。

⚑ 沪铝日盘:一级检验的两条腿全部通过,而且是在白天

  • AL2610(主力):开 24,040,高 24,425,低 24,000,收 24,370,结算 24,275,前结算 24,060;收盘对收盘 +270(+1.12%),较前结算 +310;成交 229,600 手(+40.3%),持仓 256,847 手(+14,516)。
  • ⚑ 上期检验原文:「若日盘在 24,235 上方以持仓继续回升收盘,则『盘面开始参与』由一次夜盘事件升级为趋势事实。」实际:收盘高出 24,235 达 135 元,持仓净增 14,516 手。两条腿全部达成,该判断据此升级为趋势事实。
  • ⚑ 成交 229,600 手为最近六十个交易日之最高(排名第一);持仓增加 14,516 手为最近四十个交易日中第二大,仅次于 8月17日的 +16,853 手(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 涨幅 270 元为本轮上涨中最大的单日涨幅(近三十个交易日排序第一,其后为 8月7日 +230、7月29日 +205)。
  • ⚑ 24,290 未被守住,而是被上穿 80 元。上期称其为「今日最重要的单一价位」,因为它同时是 8月12日收盘、二十日收盘区间顶部与前一夜最高价;六十日收盘顶部 24,300 亦被一并清掉。8月3日至 8月12日的整段回撤已被完全收复并超越。
  • ⚑ 24,370 为 6月5日(24,435)以来、即六十三个交易日以来的最高收盘。20 日收盘分位与 60 日收盘分位同时读作 100.0%(20 日底部 23,595,8月20日;60 日底部 22,445,7月1日)。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 24,115.00、MA10 23,938.50、MA20 23,969.25、MA30 23,824.67、MA40 23,663.75、MA60 23,574.92。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 255.00、431.50、400.75、545.33、706.25、795.08 元,为连续第四个交易日站上全带。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +110.00、MA10 +77.50、MA20 +28.00、MA30 +34.00、MA40 +31.25。⚑ 而 MA60 上行 4.84——在连续三个交易日下行之后首次转向。本简报此前三期逐次点名了这条均线的逆势下行,本期该项被撤销。
  • ⊘ 唯一的缺口在高点:24,425 距 8月12日的 24,490 尚差 65 元。日盘没有能够触到二十日盘中顶部(此为推算)。
  • 前月 AL2609 收 24,365(结算 24,290,持仓 35,050,−8,600),AL2611 收 24,355(持仓 166,130,+12,573),AL2612 收 24,300,AL2701 收 24,240。铝品种合计成交 366,436 手,合计持仓 615,051 手(+21,059)。

解读:这一次的增仓不是移仓

  • ⚑ 主力增仓 14,516 手、AL2611 增仓 12,573 手、品种合计增仓 21,059 手,三者同向为正,而 AL2609 减仓 8,600 手属临近交割的自然流出。与上期「品种合计减少 9,492 手、因而主力减仓不能归因于移仓」的记录相对称,本期的正向增仓同样不能归因于移仓(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 「量增、仓增、价涨、收在被点名位置之上」四条同时出现,是本简报在本轮上涨中第一次记录到的完整组合(此为解读)。

⊘ 9月3日夜盘(归属 9月4日交易日)——形态与上期完全颠倒

  • ⚑⊘ AL2610:开 24,475(高于日盘收盘 105 点),高 24,510,低 24,365,末价 24,390,均价 24,437.31,成交 71,757 手(较前夜 −21.2%),持仓 257,025 手,较日盘的 256,847 手仅增 178 手。
  • ⚑ 24,510 穿过了 8月12日的 24,490,为 6月5日(24,520)以来的最高一笔,即六十三个交易日以来最高。
  • ⊘ 但它被全数交回:末价 24,390 仅高于日盘收盘 20 元,低于自身开盘 85 元,低于自身均价 120 元;持仓仅增 178 手,对照日盘的 +14,516 手。
  • ⊘ 上期是「日盘拒绝、夜盘出价」;本期是「日盘出价、夜盘拒绝」。同一种结构,顺序相反(此为解读)。
  • AL2609 末价 24,370(持仓 34,055);AL2611 末价 24,400(持仓 168,956);AL2612 末价 24,340(持仓 69,239);AL2701 末价 24,280。
  • AO2610 夜盘:开 2,738,高 2,752,低 2,728,末价 2,743,均价 2,739.17,成交 100,138 手(+50.4%),持仓 124,646 手(−3,198),为连续第六次下降。⚑ 末价 2,743 高出 MA60(2,741.38)1.62 元——氧化铝本轮首次站上自己的全部六条均线。AO2611 末价 2,757,AO2612 末价 2,761,AO2701 末价 2,778。
  • AD2610 夜盘:开 23,700,高 23,720,低 23,545,末价 23,565,均价 23,618.10,成交 830 手,持仓 5,711 手(−92)。AD−AL 夜盘价差由日盘的 735 走阔至 825。
  • ⊘ 上述为夜盘实时报价,非结算数据,将于下一交易日由交易所文件重述。

⚑ 伦铝:库存创 1990 年以来最低,而 backwardation 只维持了一个交易日

  • ⚑ LME 现货结算 3,303.00 美元(+47.50,+1.46%),三个月结算 3,303.50 美元(+50.00)。现货为 8月12日(3,307.50)以来最高;路透称其为连续第五个交易日上涨、三周新高。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 245,975 吨,减少 250 吨,为连续第二个交易日去库。35 日连降结束以来的完整序列为 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 → 246,225 → 245,975。⚑ 路透/ING 称该水平为 1990 年以来最低——这是本期最硬的一条数据。
  • ⊘ 但曲线走了回去:现货低于三个月 0.50 美元,由 2.00 美元的 backwardation 转为 0.50 美元的 contango。上期称 backwardation 为「使伦敦上涨获得结构确认」的那一种结果,它只维持了一个交易日。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 3,250.80、MA10 3,229.40、MA20 3,252.60、MA30 3,238.88、MA40 3,220.45、MA60 3,230.01。现货高于全部六条,分别高出 52.20、73.60、50.40、64.12、82.55、72.99 美元,为连续第三个交易日六守其六。
  • ⚑ 上期的「6.60 美元问题」解除:MA20 的守住幅度由 6.60 美元扩大至 50.40 美元。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +15.10、MA10 +11.15、MA20 +3.70、MA30 +3.26、MA40 +4.05,⊘ 而 MA60 −3.10。
  • ⚑ 伦敦 20 日现货分位由 38.5% 升至 63.4%,60 日由 40.9% 升至 50.9%。对照沪铝的 100.0% 与 100.0%,伦敦在自身区间内仍是两个盘面中较不极端的一个。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比价由 7.4029 降至 7.3781(24,370 ÷ 3,303.00)。伦敦涨 1.46%,沪铝涨 1.12%,比价压缩恢复(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 伦敦盘中口径本期有四条且互不一致:三个月 3,298 美元(+0.4%,盘中高 3,306.50「为 8月13日以来最高」);三个月 3,308.50 美元(+0.8%,盘中高 3,328.50「为 8月12日以来最高」);TradingEconomics 3,319.50 美元(+0.83%)。四条并列,与 Westmetall 的结算口径亦不一致,均不做调和。
  • 其他基本金属(路透口径):铜 14,268.50 美元(+0.4%)、锌 3,855 美元(−0.2%)、铅 1,900 美元(+0.3%)、镍 16,800 美元(−0.7%)、锡 54,435 美元(+0.5%)。

⊘ 氧化铝:价格腿通过,资金腿第五次未通过,而结算价朝反方向走

  • AO2610:开 2,700,高 2,730,低 2,688,收 2,725,结算 2,707,前结算 2,716;收盘对收盘 +17(+0.63%),较前结算 +9;成交 147,389 手(−39.8%),持仓 127,844 手(−7,667)。
  • ⊘ 上期检验原文:「若日盘收在 2,718 之上且持仓终止四连降,则『价格确认、资金离场』的背离以多头方式收敛。」实际:收 2,725(高于 2,718,价格腿通过),持仓 −7,667(连续第五次下降,资金腿未通过)。与上期同样是一条腿通过、一条腿未通过,但通过的那条腿本期换成了价格。
  • ⊘ 结算价朝相反方向走:2,707,低于成本口径一(2,718)11 元;上一交易日的结算 2,716 只低 2 元。同一个交易日里,收盘价上穿成本、结算价却更深地落到成本之下(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 持仓自 8月27日的 280,950 手起算:228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511 → 127,844,五个交易日累计 −153,106 手,即 −54.5%。
  • ⚑ 均线:MA5 2,692.20、MA10 2,677.70、MA20 2,684.60、MA30 2,682.67、MA40 2,692.95、MA60 2,741.38。收盘站上前五条(分别 +32.80、+47.30、+40.40、+42.33、+32.05),连续第二个交易日「六守其五」,MA60 仍高出 16.38 元(上期为 36.57 元)。20 日分位 98.2%,60 日分位由 28.9% 升至 34.2%。
  • ⚑ 而夜盘补上了最后一条:末价 2,743 高于 MA60 1.62 元,为本轮首次六守其六。⊘ 代价是持仓第六次下降。
  • 远月同步:AO2611 收 2,732、AO2612 收 2,741、AO2701 收 2,756(持仓 +8,214)。氧化铝品种合计成交 279,381 手,合计持仓 458,156 手(−1,247)——远月的增仓几乎抵消了主力的减仓,这一点与上期的品种合计 −16,928 手不同(此为推算)。
  • AD2610 收 23,635(+245,+1.05%),结算 23,545,持仓 5,803(−481),连续第四个交易日高于自身全部六条均线(MA5 23,414.00、MA10 23,257.00、MA20 23,281.50、MA30 23,263.17、MA40 23,185.38、MA60 23,114.50),分别高出 221.00、378.00、353.50、371.83、449.62、520.50。20 日分位 98.6%,60 日分位 96.0%。AD−AL 日盘价差由 675 → 710 再走阔至 735,夜盘 825,为本简报记录以来最阔。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 9月3日现货:九条口径全部上涨,而华南是涨得最少的那一端

  • 上海现货 24,340(+260,区间 24,320–24,360);长江 24,340(+260,区间 24,320–24,360);中原 24,340(+260)。
  • 南海(佛山)24,850(+250,区间 24,800–24,900);南海口径下的上海 A00 24,410(+280,区间 24,360–24,460);广东南储 24,550(+230,区间 24,520–24,580)。
  • 中铝四地全部上调:华东 24,350(+270)、华南 24,550(+250)、西南 24,370(+260)、华中 24,210(+260)。华中重新站上 24,000。
  • ⚑ 九条口径全部上涨,与上期「九条中六条下跌」正好相反。
  • ⊘ 但基差由 −20 走阔至 −30:现货涨 260,盘面涨 270,现货仍落后 10 元。对前月 AL2609 收盘 24,365 为 −25,与上期持平。
  • ⚑⊘ 三条价差全部收窄:南海−上海 510(上期 520)、南储−上海 210(上期 240)、中铝华南−华东 200(上期 220)。上期关注清单问的是「华南的分离能否连续第二日出现、升级为新的序列」;答案是不能——华南是本期涨幅最小的一端(南储 +230、南海 +250、中铝华南 +250),分离只维持了一个交易日。
  • ⊘ 9月3日的上海华通、上海物贸与中国宏桥口径未取得。另有一处二手站点显示一条无日期的「华通铝锭 99.85」口径 24,210–24,230(均价 24,220);该口径纯度不同、日期不明,并列载入,不做调和,也不据此计算价差。
  • 南海(佛山)电解板 95,050(+600)。

解读:方向对了,相对位置没有对

  • ⚑ 上期记录的「现货跌 30 而盘面只跌 10」在本期以镜像出现:现货涨 260 而盘面涨 270。绝对方向由跌转涨是改善,相对位置仍是落后,而且落后幅度维持在 10 元(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 华南的分离被证伪,这是本期最干净的一次「问题被直接回答」:上期把三条价差同时走阔读作「区域性偏紧重新出现」,并明确写下若连续第二日走阔则升级为序列。本期三条同时收窄,该升级不成立(此为解读)。

成本与海外实物:本期无新印记,两条方向相反的旧数据继续对峙

  • 转载(偏空):日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比下降 18% 至 22%;另有中国口径称「砍至 310 美元」。为报盘而非结算,尚未定案。
  • 转载(偏多):几内亚进口铝土矿现货主流成交 72–73 美元/干吨;9 月长协与 8 月持平,推算到岸 73–74 美元/干吨;海运费逼近 40 美元/吨。
  • 长江综合氧化铝:华东 2,730、华南 2,665,均沿用。⊘ SMM 氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价连续第四期需登录,仍载 8月27日(指数 2,676;山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660)。
  • ⊘ ADC12 本期增至四条互不一致的口径:本简报载入的 23,900;长江现货铝合金 24,000;长江综合华东 23,615;佛山主流 23,500–23,800(9月1日,较前一交易日 +100 至 +150)。另有一处站点显示无日期的 23,700。A356.2 报 24,400。全部并列,不做调和,也不据此计算新的价差。
  • ⚑ 需注意 AD2610 期价 23,635 与上述四条现货口径的关系:期价已高于其中三条。本简报不据此推断基差,因为交割品级与口径不一致(此为解读)。
  • 转载:9 月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨;再生铝开工率 49.1%;破碎生铝 19,900–20,700;海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元;马来西亚巴生港 FOB 3,090 美元;MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨。

三 · 库存

⚑ 伦敦创 1990 年以来最低,⊘ 而本期被点名的一级检验没有落定

  • ⚑ LME 库存 245,975 吨,减少 250 吨,连续第二个交易日去库。路透/ING 称该水平为 1990 年以来最低。
  • ⊘ 上期关注清单把「今天下午的 SMM 社会库存印记」列为本期第一级检验,原文称其为「两期以来第一次真实检验」。该印记本期并未变为可取得。因此 837,000 吨(周环比 −15,000,读作连续第八周去库,自 7月23日累计 −169,000 吨)既未被确认,也未被取代,该检验状态为「未决」。
  • ⊘ 取而代之的是一条不吻合的新口径:钢联(Mysteel)称截至 8月31日,中国主要地区电解铝社会库存合计 809,000 吨,较 8月27日减少 12,000 吨;上海、无锡、佛山、天津、重庆下降,沈阳、巩义上升,其余持平。⊘ 钢联同时说明,该数据中含约 107,000 吨权属不清、流动性受限的库存,实际可流通量低于报出值。两条口径相差 28,000 吨,并列载入,不做调和。
  • ⚑ 上期所周度口径本期被第三方再次上修:路透/ING 称 391,498 吨为连续第十一周下降,自 6月12日的六年高点 528,885 吨累计减少 137,387 吨。本简报上期载入的是「第十周、累计约 −135,800 吨」。两条并列。
  • ⚑ 保税区本期有 9月3日的新印记且被确认为持平:上海 89,000 吨 + 广东 27,000 吨 = 116,000 吨,周环比持平。外部资源仍未回流。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝全国库存 9月3日周度评估:总量 727 万吨,增加 8,000 吨;其中电解铝厂原料库存 +16,000 吨至 344.4 万吨,氧化铝厂厂内库存 +9,000 吨至 123.4 万吨,港口库存 −19,000 吨至 101.7 万吨。⊘ 三项分项合计为 +6,000 吨而非 +8,000 吨,两者并列,不做调和。
  • 转载(SMM 日度口径,9月2日):三地铝锭 651,500 吨(广东 144,500、无锡 304,500、巩义 202,500),较上期 −8,000 吨;两地铝棒 89,000 吨(广东 65,000、无锡 24,000),较前一日 +1,500 吨。⊘ 该两地铝棒日度口径与本简报载入的「全国主流消费地周度 140,500 吨(8月31日)」不是同一口径,并列载入。
  • 转载:上期所注册仓单 245,510 吨(−28,691);上期所氧化铝周度库存 323,736 吨(−38,827);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨(+2,500)。⊘ 上期所日度仓单吨位未取得(交易所端点今晨返回 404);上期所周度库存于今日下午发布。

解读

  • ⚑ 「1990 年以来最低」这一条的重量在于它改变的是中期框架而非当日行情:本简报此前载入过 7月28日「LME 库存创纪录低位 271 千吨」,而当前的 245,975 吨已比该点再低约 25,000 吨,并且这是在连续两个交易日恢复去库之后(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 国内一栏本期反而更不清楚了:上期是「按构造沿用、今日受检验」,本期是「检验未到、又多了一条相差 28,000 吨的口径」。方向上两条口径都是去库,量级上不一致,本简报不合并二者(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝库存在累,这是本期氧化铝一栏中最直接的一条偏空证据,并且与其持仓连续六次下降同向(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 本期的宏观事件只有一个,而它是本轮以来第一次把宏观栏推向偏多

  • ⚑ 美联储理事沃勒(Christopher Waller)在路透活动上表示,若通胀压力继续朝 2% 目标降温得到数据确认,他倾向于在下次议息会议上主张维持利率不变;同时表示若通胀飙升亦愿意加息,但市场的定价集中在前半句。
  • ⚑ CME FedWatch 口径:9 月加息 25 个基点的概率由前一日的 63.2% 降至 50.5%(另有 50.4% 的报数)。加息在本简报的记录中第一次不再是基准情形。⊘ 需同时说明,本简报上期载入的是 66% 与「约 70%」,而本期来源引用的前值是 63.2%——三条口径并列,不做调和,但三条的方向一致:大幅下移。
  • ⚑ 美元指数下跌 0.69% 至 98.91,跌破 99。今晨实时口径读作 98.9575,当日区间 98.9145–99.0460。对照本简报此前载入的 99.538–99.76,这是一次决定性的下破,而不是上期的「停滞」。
  • ⚑ 上期关注清单原文:「若非农弱而定价回落、美元跌破 99.5,则宏观栏将首次由中性转向偏多。」该条件在本期被满足——但提前了一天,并且是在没有非农的情况下,由一次讲话完成的。本简报按其字面记为「已满足」,同时记录其触发通道与预设不同(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 美元兑日元下跌超过 2% 至 155.36 一线,为 2 月下旬以来美元最弱;今晨约 155.65。⚑ 关键在归因:日本央行数据显示前一日的日元走强背后并无官方干预,分析师将本轮升值归因于对 9月17—18 日会议加息幅度的押注,而非干预。这与上期载入的「疑似干预」是不同的解释,本期以央行数据为准。
  • ⚑ 黄金:纽约期金口径 4,539.90 美元,较上期载入的 4,414.60 美元上涨 125.30 美元(+2.84%),为连续第二个交易日上涨;路透口径记为 +2.3%,现货金站上 4,360 美元一线。两条并列。
  • ⚑ 美债两端连续第二日回落:十年期 4.761%(上期 4.796%),两年期 4.322%(上期 4.379%)。
  • ⚑ 美股录得 8月4日以来最佳单日:道指 53,686.11(+624.16,+1.18%),标普 500 7,747.71(+81.11,+1.06%),纳指 26,584.06(+366.23,+1.40%)。比特币 81,547 美元,上破 8 万美元。
  • ⊘ 原油分化:WTI(10 月)91.30 美元(+0.32%),连涨第四日;布伦特(11 月)95.52 美元(−0.12%),四日以来首次下跌。
  • ⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第七期未取得,联储路径中段仍是盲区。
  • 美国 8 月非农于今夜(9月4日)发布,预期约 9 万人。

解读:上期写下的黄金—原油判别规则,本期应当被撤销而不是被触发

  • ⊘ 该规则原文为「若原油续涨而黄金转涨,则该冲击应被重新归类为地缘供给冲击,对铝净偏多」。本期实际情况是:黄金涨 2.84%,而布伦特跌 0.12%,WTI 仅涨 0.32%;且所有来源把黄金的上涨归因于沃勒讲话、美元与收益率下行。上期已记录该规则的通道被污染,本期证据显示通道本身就是货币性的。本简报正式撤销该规则,不再据此计分(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 宏观栏净方向由「中性」转为「偏多」,这是本轮上涨中第一次。 五条同向:加息定价由 63.2% 降至 50.5%、美元跌破 99、日元因加息押注而非干预走强、两端收益率连续第二日回落、美股与黄金同涨。
  • ⊘ 但必须同时记录三条制约:一是这一切建立在一位理事的讲话之上,而非数据;二是非农在今夜,若明显强于预期则整段定价可被一次性收回;三是 10 月条第七期缺失,联储路径中段仍无法定价(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 海外:本期最硬的一条是库存,而且是结构性的

  • ⚑ 新增:LME 库存 245,975 吨被路透/ING 描述为 1990 年以来最低。ING 策略师给出的解释为「铝受到实物市场偏紧与中国季节性需求转强预期的支撑」。
  • ⚑ 伦铝连续第五个交易日上涨、创三周新高,与库存口径同向。
  • 转载:俄铝拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能及 SUBR 铝土矿(仍为提议);几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年(−25%);力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 因天然气维持 50%;卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能;Alba 一至三号系列停产(占 19%);EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 回填至 25%。
  • ⊘ 转载(偏空):日本四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比 −18% 至 −22%;美国废铝出口上半年 +21% 至 125 万吨。

⊘ 成本端:氧化铝的价格、库存与持仓三者本期不同向

  • ⚑ 氧化铝 9月3日收 2,725,高于成本口径一(2,718)7 元;夜盘 2,743 进一步上行并站上 MA60。
  • ⊘ 但结算价 2,707 低于成本口径一 11 元;全国氧化铝库存增至 727 万吨(+8,000 吨);持仓日盘第五次、夜盘第六次下降,自 8月27日累计 −153,106 手(−54.5%)。
  • ⚑ 需要平衡记录的一条:氧化铝品种合计持仓仅减少 1,247 手,远月 AO2701 增仓 8,214 手。资金并未离开这个品种,而是在向远月迁移(此为解读)。
  • 转载:中国氧化铝建成产能 12,095 万吨/年、运行 9,590 万吨/年,闲置约 2,505 万吨/年,开工率约 79.3%;8 月产量预计突破 800 万吨。
  • 转载:几内亚进口铝土矿现货 72–73 美元/干吨,9 月长协持平,推算到岸 73–74 美元;9 月预焙阳极 5,730 元/吨。

需求与政策

  • 转载:RatingDog 8 月制造业 PMI 51.5(六个月新高);国家统计局 8 月 49.8;铝加工行业 8 月综合 PMI 48.7%。
  • 转载:周度开工率(截至 8月27日)——型材 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。本期无更新。
  • ⚑ 本期的需求证据是价格性的而非数量性的:九条现货口径全部上涨,华中重新站上 24,000,且现货落后盘面的幅度未扩大(维持 10 元)。上期「下游在更高价位接货」的读法在本期得到部分恢复,但未得到成交量或开工率的独立确认(此为解读)。
  • 转载(政策):《工业绿色低碳发展「十五五」规划》已落地,对电解铝产能天花板的具体处理仍未见细节;中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

9月3日成交与情绪

  • 华东:上海现货 24,340(+260),基差 −30。现货涨幅(+260)略小于盘面涨幅(+270),持货商在盘面拉升时跟涨但未追平。
  • 华南:南海(佛山)24,850(+250),南储 24,550(+230),中铝华南 24,550(+250)——本期涨幅最小的一端;南海−上海价差收窄至 510,南储−上海收窄至 210。
  • 华中:中铝华中 24,210(+260),重新站上 24,000 关口,与全国其余区域同步。
  • ⚑ 华东与华南的方向本期重新合并:上期是「华东跌 30、华南涨 20 至 40」,本期是九条全涨而华南涨得最少。上期读作「华南区域性偏紧」的形态,在一个交易日内被完全抹平(此为解读)。
  • 出货意愿:由中性转为偏弱(惜售减弱)——持货商在盘面大涨时仍全线跟涨,但幅度不及盘面,说明并非普遍惜售。采购意愿:由偏弱转为中性——基差仅小幅走阔 10 元,在盘面单日涨 270 元的背景下属可接受的滞后(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ SMM 的出货/采购情绪指数未取得;上述判断依据价格、涨跌幅与价差行为推断,非 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑ 上期一级检验两条腿全部通过:AL2610 收 24,370(高于 24,235 达 135 元),持仓 +14,516 手。「盘面开始参与」升级为趋势事实。
  • ⚑ 涨幅 +270(+1.12%),为本轮上涨中最大的单日涨幅。
  • ⚑ 成交 229,600 手,为最近六十个交易日之最高。
  • ⚑ 持仓 +14,516 手,为最近四十个交易日中第二大增仓;AL2611 同步增仓 12,573 手;品种合计 +21,059 手,增仓不能归因于移仓。
  • ⚑ 24,290(8月12日收盘、二十日收盘顶部)与 24,300(六十日收盘顶部)同时被清掉,收盘高出前者 80 元。
  • ⚑ 24,370 为 6月5日以来、六十三个交易日以来最高收盘;20 日与 60 日收盘分位同时读作 100.0%。
  • ⚑ 8月3日至 8月12日的整段回撤被完全收复并超越。
  • ⚑ 收盘高于全部六条均线,分别高出 255.00 至 795.08 元,连续第四个交易日站上全带。
  • ⚑ MA60 上行 4.84,在连续三个交易日下行之后首次转向。
  • ⚑ 夜盘打到 24,510,穿过 8月12日的 24,490,为 6月5日以来最高一笔。
  • ⚑ LME 现货 3,303.00 美元(+47.50,+1.46%),为 8月12日以来最高,连续第五个交易日上涨。
  • ⚑ LME 库存 245,975 吨(−250),被路透/ING 称为 1990 年以来最低,连续第二个交易日去库。
  • ⚑ LME 现货连续第三个交易日高于自身全部六条均线,MA20 守住幅度由 6.60 美元扩大至 50.40 美元。
  • ⚑ LME 现货 20 日分位仅 63.4%、60 日 50.9%,远低于沪铝的 100.0% 与 100.0%,伦敦仍有区间空间。
  • ⚑ 沪伦比价由 7.4029 降至 7.3781,伦敦重新领涨。
  • ⚑ ING:「铝受到实物市场偏紧与中国季节性需求转强预期的支撑。」
  • ⚑ 上期所周度库存 391,498 吨被第三方口径上修为连续第十一周下降,自 6月12日六年高点 528,885 吨累计 −137,387 吨。
  • ⚑ 保税区 116,000 吨(9月3日,周环比持平),外部资源未回流。
  • ⚑ 钢联口径社会库存 809,000 吨(8月31日,周环比 −12,000 吨),方向与本简报载入的口径一致(尽管量级不一致)。
  • ⚑ 九条现货口径全部上涨,与上期六条下跌完全相反;中铝华中重新站上 24,000。
  • ⚑ 美联储理事沃勒表态支持维持利率不变,9 月加息概率由 63.2% 塌至 50.5%,加息首次不再是基准情形。
  • ⚑ 美元指数 −0.69% 至 98.91,跌破 99;上期关注清单设定的「美元跌破 99.5」条件被满足。
  • ⚑ 美元兑日元跌破 156 至 155.36,为 2 月下旬以来美元最弱;归因为日本央行加息押注而非干预。
  • ⚑ 纽约期金 4,539.90 美元(+2.84%),连续第二个交易日上涨。
  • ⚑ 十年期美债 4.761%、两年期 4.322%,两端连续第二日回落。
  • ⚑ 美股三大指数录得 8月4日以来最佳单日(道指 +1.18%、标普 +1.06%、纳指 +1.40%)。
  • ⚑ WTI 91.30 美元(+0.32%),连涨第四日,能源成本尾部维持。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝收 2,725,上穿成本口径一 7 元;夜盘 2,743 站上 MA60,本轮首次六守其六。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝品种合计持仓仅 −1,247 手,AO2701 增仓 8,214 手——资金在向远月迁移而非离场。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 60 日分位由 28.9% 升至 34.2%。
  • ⚑ 几内亚铝土矿 72–73 美元/干吨、9 月长协持平、海运费近 40 美元,矿石成本底部仍在抬升。
  • ⚑ AD2610 收 23,635(+245),连续第四个交易日高于自身全部六条均线,20 日分位 98.6%、60 日 96.0%。
  • ⚑ 远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本仍在五处被削减或封顶(俄铝、几内亚、Yarwun、美铝、Alunorte);卡塔尔铝业约 60%、Alba −19%、Alunorte 50%,海外缺口仍在。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘ 夜盘把日盘的确认交了回去:开 24,475、高 24,510,末价仅 24,390,低于自身均价 120 元、低于自身开盘 85 元,持仓仅增 178 手。
  • ⊘ 上期是「日盘拒绝、夜盘出价」,本期是「日盘出价、夜盘拒绝」——同一种结构、相反顺序,因此该结构本身尚未成为方向证据。
  • ⊘ 夜盘成交 71,757 手,较前夜下降 21.2%。
  • ⊘ 日盘高点 24,425 未能触及 8月12日的 24,490,二十日盘中顶部在日盘内未被清掉。
  • ⊘ 伦敦的 backwardation 只维持了一个交易日:由 2.00 美元转为 0.50 美元的 contango。
  • ⊘ 沪铝 20 日与 60 日收盘分位同时为 100.0%,位置本身已在区间顶部,回撤空间大于上行空间(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 伦敦 MA60 本期下行 3.10 美元。
  • ⊘ 基差由 −20 走阔至 −30,现货连续第二个交易日跑输盘面。
  • ⊘ 华南三条价差同时收窄,上期认定的「区域性偏紧重新出现」在一个交易日内被抹平。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝资金腿连续第五次未通过:持仓 −7,667 手,自 8月27日累计 −153,106 手(−54.5%);夜盘再减 3,198 手,为第六次。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝结算价 2,707 低于成本口径一 11 元,较上一交易日的「低 2 元」进一步走低。
  • ⊘ 全国氧化铝库存增至 727 万吨(+8,000 吨),电解铝厂原料与氧化铝厂厂内库存同时上升。
  • ⊘ 中铝五地氧化铝报价连续第四期因需登录无法取得,产业确认一项仍无法检验。
  • ⊘ 上期点名为本期一级检验的 SMM 周四社会库存印记未取得,该检验「未决」;837,000 吨口径既未确认也未取代。
  • ⊘ 新出现的钢联口径 809,000 吨与本简报载入的 837,000 吨相差 28,000 吨,且钢联自述其中约 107,000 吨权属不清、流动性受限。
  • ⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第七期未取得。
  • ⊘ 本期宏观转向建立在一位理事的讲话之上而非数据;非农在今夜,预期约 9 万人,足以一次性收回该定价。
  • ⊘ 布伦特 95.52 美元(−0.12%),四日以来首次下跌;上期的黄金—原油判别规则本期被正式撤销。
  • ⊘ AD−AL 价差由 710 走阔至 735,夜盘 825,为本简报记录以来最阔——铸造铝合金相对原铝的贴水在扩大。
  • ⊘ 日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%)仍为账上最硬的一条偏空实物数据,本期无更新亦无反驳。
  • ⊘ 中国氧化铝闲置产能约 2,505 万吨/年,远大于远期账本上被削减的合计规模;8 月产量预计突破 800 万吨。
  • ⊘ 铸造铝合金库存 28,100 吨仍为转载值;加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名;EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 回填至 25%。

八 · 一句话观点

上期写下的一级检验有两条明确的腿,而日盘把两条都无歧义地通过了,并且这是本轮上涨中本简报自设的检验第一次在白天被通过:检验要求「在 24,235 上方以持仓继续回升收盘」,AL2610 收 24,370——高出该位置 135 元——成交 229,600 手为六十个交易日之最高,持仓净增 14,516 手至 256,847 手为四十个交易日中第二大,涨幅 270 元为本轮最大单日涨幅,而 AL2611 同步增仓 12,573 手、品种合计增仓 21,059 手,因此这一次的增仓与上期的减仓一样,都不能归因于移仓;上期称作「今日最重要的单一价位」的 24,290,因其同时是 8月12日收盘、二十日收盘区间顶部与前一夜最高价,本期既不是被守住也不是被触到,而是被上穿 80 元,六十日收盘顶部 24,300 一并被清掉,8月3日至 8月12日的整段回撤被完全收复并超越,24,370 成为 6月5日以来六十三个交易日中的最高收盘,20 日与 60 日收盘分位同时读作 100.0%,而本简报连续三期点名的 MA60 逆势下行也在本期终止,上行 4.84;伦敦交出了本期最硬的一条数据,LME 库存 245,975 吨被路透与 ING 描述为 1990 年以来最低,现货结算 3,303.00 美元涨 47.50 美元即 1.46%,为 8月12日以来最高并且是连续第五个交易日上涨,上期称「伦敦整个六守其六压在 6.60 美元上」的 MA20 守住幅度扩大至 50.40 美元,而伦敦 20 日分位仅 63.4%,对照沪铝的 100.0%,两个盘面中较不极端的仍是伦敦;宏观栏本轮首次转向偏多,并且是按上期关注清单写下的字面条件转向的——「若定价回落、美元跌破 99.5,则宏观栏将首次由中性转向偏多」——只是它提前了一天,并且是在没有非农的情况下由一次讲话完成:美联储理事沃勒表示若通胀继续降温他倾向于支持维持利率不变,9 月加息概率由 63.2% 塌至 50.5%,加息在本简报记录中第一次不再是基准情形,美元下跌 0.69% 至 98.91 跌破 99,美元兑日元跌至 155.36 为 2 月下旬以来最弱且日本央行数据显示背后并无干预、驱动是对 9月17—18 日加息的押注,黄金涨 2.84% 至 4,539.90 美元,两端收益率连续第二日回落,美股录得 8月4日以来最佳单日;而与这一切相对的,是所有发生在收盘之后的事情全部朝相反方向走,并且把上期的形态完全颠倒了过来:AL2610 夜盘开在高于收盘 105 点的 24,475,打到 24,510——穿过 8月12日的 24,490,为 6月5日以来最高一笔——随后全数交回,末价 24,390 仅高于日盘收盘 20 元、低于自身开盘 85 元、低于自身均价 120 元,持仓仅增 178 手,对照日盘的 14,516 手;上期是日盘拒绝而夜盘出价,本期是日盘出价而夜盘拒绝,同一种结构、相反顺序,因此这一结构本身尚不能被当作方向证据;伦敦的 backwardation 只维持了一个交易日,由 2.00 美元退回 0.50 美元的 contango;氧化铝连续第二期把本简报自设的检验劈成两半,只是通过的那条腿换了——收 2,725 上穿成本口径一 7 元,而持仓 −7,667 手为连续第五次下降,自 8月27日累计 −153,106 手即 −54.5%,结算价 2,707 反而由「低于成本 2 元」变为「低于成本 11 元」,夜盘则以 2,743 站上 MA60、完成本轮首次六守其六,却是在第六次减仓上完成的,同时全国氧化铝库存增至 727 万吨,需要平衡记录的一条是氧化铝品种合计持仓仅减少 1,247 手而 AO2701 增仓 8,214 手,资金是在向远月迁移而不是离开这个品种;实物一栏在水平上改善而在相对位置上没有:九条现货口径全部上涨,与上期六条下跌完全相反,中铝华中重新站上 24,000,但现货涨 260 而盘面涨 270,基差由 −20 走阔至 −30,而三条华南价差同时收窄,因为华南是本期涨幅最小的一端——这直接回答了上期关注清单的问题,答案是否定的:华南的分离只维持了一个交易日,没有成为序列;最后,本期被上期点名为一级检验的那一项根本没有落定——SMM 的周四社会库存印记并未变为可取得,837,000 吨口径既未被确认也未被取代,取而代之的是一条相差 28,000 吨、且其中约 107,000 吨被自述为权属不清的钢联口径 809,000 吨;因此本期的结论是:多头本期新拿到了白天的盘面、伦敦的价格水平、一条被称为 1990 年以来最低的库存数字与整个宏观栏,这比二十四小时之前实质性地强;空头拿到的是 24,510 上的夜盘拒绝、退回的 contango、氧化铝的持仓账本、走阔的基差,以及一个没有被回答的一级库存检验。非农在今夜落入一个已经把 9 月加息定价成掷硬币的市场,而上期所周度库存在今日下午。

九 · 今日(9月4日)日盘及夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 日盘与夜盘的矛盾必须在今天落定,判别位是 24,390 与 24,510。 日盘以 +270 与 +14,516 手确认了上行,夜盘却在 24,510 上把涨幅全数交回、持仓只增 178 手。今日的判别很干净:若日盘收在夜盘末价 24,390 之上且持仓继续增加,则夜盘那一次回吐应被归类为高位换手而非拒绝,上方直接面对 24,490 与 24,510;若日盘回补至 24,275(9月3日结算)之下且持仓转为下降,则昨日的增仓上行应被重新归类为一次由宏观消息驱动的单日脉冲,而 24,510 将成为本轮的头部标记。
  • ⚑ 24,490 与 24,510:二十日盘中顶部已在夜盘被穿过,今天要看它能否在日盘被守住。 24,490 是 8月12日高点,24,510 是昨夜最高、也是 6月5日以来最高一笔。若日盘能在这两个位置之上成交并收住,则上方参考依次为 24,520(6月5日高点)、24,625(6月4日收盘)与 24,930(6月2日收盘),整个 6 月区间重新进入视野;若日盘在其下反复受阻,则这一对价位由「被穿过」变为「被确认为压力」,而昨日的增仓将成为在顶部的接盘。
  • ⚑ 今夜的美国 8 月非农(预期约 9 万人),落入一个已经把 9 月加息定价成掷硬币的市场。 加息概率已由 63.2% 塌至 50.5%,美元已跌破 99,而这一切建立在沃勒的一次讲话之上而非数据。若非农明显弱于预期,则定价可进一步下移、美元有机会测试 98.5,宏观栏的偏多定性得到数据确认;若非农明显强于预期,则整段定价可被一次性收回,而铝在 100.0% 分位上没有任何位置缓冲。同时留意 10 月条是否终于可取得——已连续第七期缺失。
  • ⚑ 今天下午的上期所周度库存,以及 SMM 社会库存印记是否恢复发布。 上期所周度上一印记为 8月28日的 391,498 吨,第三方口径称其为连续第十一周下降;今日若延续至第十二周,则国内去库的时间跨度将超过本简报此前的任何一次记录。同时,本期未落定的一级检验今日仍可能落定:若 SMM 印记恢复,则 837,000 吨与钢联 809,000 吨两条口径的差额可被解释;若仍不可得,则本简报将连续第二期以两条不吻合的口径承载同一个判断,该判断的可靠性应被下调(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 伦敦:库存能否连续第三日去库,以及曲线会不会再回到 backwardation。 245,975 吨已被称为 1990 年以来最低,连续两日去库;若第三日继续减少,则「实物偏紧」由叙述变为序列。同时关注 0.50 美元的 contango:上期的 2.00 美元 backwardation 只活了一个交易日,若今日再度转为 backwardation,则近端偏紧获得第二次确认;若 contango 走阔至 5 美元以上,则昨日的价格上涨应更多归因于美元而非实物。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:价格已经在成本之上、夜盘已经六守其六,唯一没有跟上的是持仓,判别位是 2,741.38 与 2,718。 今日若日盘收在 MA60(2,741.38)之上且持仓终止五连降,则「价格确认、资金离场」的背离以多头方式收敛,本简报连续两期的「未决」定性可以撤销;若收在成本口径一(2,718)之下且持仓第七次下降,则应正式判定为一次由铝价带动、缺乏自身资金支撑的被动上涨。同时关注全国氧化铝库存 727 万吨的累库是否延续,以及中铝五地报价是否终于可取得——已连续四期无法检验。
  • ⚑ 现货能否追上盘面,基差能否收回 −20 以内。 昨日九条口径全涨但现货仍落后 10 元,基差由 −20 走阔至 −30。若今日现货跟随昨夜的高开继续上调且基差回到 −20 以内,则「下游在更高价位接货」恢复为有效判断;若盘面再涨而现货滞后、基差扩大至 −50 以外,则本轮上涨的实物背书仍然缺席。同时观察南海−上海(510)、南储−上海(210)、中铝华南−华东(200)三条价差是否连续第二日收窄——若是,则华南结构性偏紧应被正式记为已消退。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

  • Written the morning of Friday, September 4, BEFORE the 09:00 Beijing SHFE day-session open.
  • ⚑ The prior edition wrote a first-order test with two explicit legs, and the day session passed both of them without ambiguity — the first time in this advance that a test this brief set has been passed in daylight. This edition carries the complete September 3 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards from the exchange’s own daily file including complex open interest; the September 3 London session; and a live quote for the September 3 night session, which belongs to the September 4 trading day and closed at 01:00 Beijing this morning.
  • ⚑ Method: SHFE averages are computed exactly from the exchange’s published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series; London’s from 67 Westmetall cash settlements. Before any September 3 value was computed, both series were used to re-derive the prior edition — all EIGHTEEN SHFE averages for September 2, the SHFE 72.7%/89.2% and alumina 83.2%/28.9% percentiles, all six LME cash averages and the 38.5%/40.9% London percentiles reproduced exactly, and Westmetall has not revised its September 2 row.
  • ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: SMM’s absolute A00 quotation, its regional transaction premia, its alumina index and Chalco’s five regional alumina listings for September 3 (login-walled — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a FOURTH consecutive edition rather than failed); ⚑⊘ the SMM Thursday social-inventory print that the prior watchlist named as this edition’s first-order test, which did NOT become retrievable, leaving that test UNRESOLVED and substituting a Mysteel caliber that does not reconcile with it; SHFE daily warrant tonnages (the exchange endpoint returned 404 this morning); the SHFE weekly warehouse print, which publishes this afternoon; the Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao spot calibers for September 3; and the October fed funds strip, absent for a SEVENTH consecutive edition.

⚑ SHFE day session: both legs of the first-order test passed, and passed in daylight

  • AL2610 (main contract): open 24,040, high 24,425, low 24,000, close 24,370, settlement 24,275, prior settlement 24,060. Close-to-close +270 (+1.12%); against the prior settlement +310. Volume 229,600 (+40.3%); OI 256,847 (+14,516).
  • ⚑ The prior test read: “a day close above 24,235 with open interest rising again upgrades ‘the board is participating’ from a single overnight event to a trend fact.” The close came 135 above 24,235 and open interest rose 14,516 lots. Both legs met; the judgement is upgraded to a trend fact.
  • ⚑ Volume of 229,600 is the HIGHEST of the last sixty sessions (rank 1 of 60). The open-interest build of 14,516 is the second-largest of the last forty, behind only August 17’s +16,853 (derivation).
  • ⚑ The gain of 270 is the largest single-session advance of this entire run (rank 1 of the last thirty, ahead of August 7’s +230 and July 29’s +205).
  • ⚑ 24,290 was not defended — it was cleared by 80. The prior edition called it “today’s single most important price” because it was the August 12 close, the twenty-session close top and the prior night’s high at once. 24,300, the sixty-session close top, went with it. The entire August 3–12 decline is retraced and exceeded.
  • ⚑ 24,370 is the highest close since June 5’s 24,435 — sixty-three sessions. Both close percentiles now read 100.0%: the 20-session (floor 23,595, August 20) and the 60-session (floor 22,445, July 1).
  • ⚑ Moving averages (exact): MA5 24,115.00, MA10 23,938.50, MA20 23,969.25, MA30 23,824.67, MA40 23,663.75, MA60 23,574.92. The close is above ALL SIX by 255.00, 431.50, 400.75, 545.33, 706.25 and 795.08 — a fourth consecutive session above the whole band.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +110.00, MA10 +77.50, MA20 +28.00, MA30 +34.00, MA40 +31.25. ⚑ And MA60 ROSE 4.84, its first advance after three consecutive declines. This brief flagged that decline in each of the last three editions; the flag is withdrawn.
  • ⊘ The single gap is at the high: 24,425 against August 12’s 24,490. The day session could not reach the twenty-session intraday top (derivation).
  • Front-month AL2609 closed 24,365 (settlement 24,290, OI 35,050, −8,600); AL2611 24,355 (OI 166,130, +12,573); AL2612 24,300; AL2701 24,240. Complex volume 366,436; complex OI 615,051 (+21,059).

Interpretation: this build is not a roll

  • ⚑ The main contract added 14,516 lots, AL2611 added 12,573 and the complex added 21,059 — all three positive, while AL2609’s loss of 8,600 is the ordinary outflow of a contract approaching delivery. Symmetrically with the prior edition’s record that the complex lost 9,492 lots and so the main contract’s decline could not be attributed to rolling, this edition’s build cannot be attributed to rolling either (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Volume up, open interest up, price up, and a close above a level the brief itself had named — the first time all four have appeared together in this advance (interpretation).

⊘ The September 3 night session (trading day September 4) — the pattern inverts exactly

  • ⚑⊘ AL2610: open 24,475 (105 ABOVE the day close), high 24,510, low 24,365, last 24,390, VWAP 24,437.31, volume 71,757 (−21.2% on the prior night), OI 257,025 — up just 178 lots on the day session’s 256,847.
  • ⚑ 24,510 went through August 12’s 24,490 and is the highest print since June 5’s 24,520 — sixty-three sessions.
  • ⊘ And it was handed back in full: the last print of 24,390 is only 20 above the day close, 85 below its own open and 120 below its own VWAP, on an open-interest build of 178 lots against the day’s 14,516.
  • ⊘ Last edition the day rejected and the night bid. This edition the day bid and the night rejected. The identical structure, in the opposite order (interpretation).
  • AL2609 last 24,370 (OI 34,055); AL2611 last 24,400 (OI 168,956); AL2612 last 24,340 (OI 69,239); AL2701 last 24,280.
  • AO2610 night: open 2,738, high 2,752, low 2,728, last 2,743, VWAP 2,739.17, volume 100,138 (+50.4%), OI 124,646 (−3,198) — a SIXTH consecutive decline. ⚑ The last print of 2,743 is 1.62 above MA60 (2,741.38) — alumina’s first six-of-six of this run. AO2611 last 2,757, AO2612 2,761, AO2701 2,778.
  • AD2610 night: open 23,700, high 23,720, low 23,545, last 23,565, VWAP 23,618.10, volume 830, OI 5,711 (−92). The AD−AL spread widened from the day’s 735 to 825 overnight.
  • ⊘ These are live session quotes, not settlements, and will be restated from the exchange file next session.

⚑ LME: stocks called the lowest since 1990 — and the backwardation lasted exactly one session

  • ⚑ Cash settled $3,303.00 (+$47.50, +1.46%); 3M settled $3,303.50 (+$50.00). Cash is the highest since August 12’s $3,307.50; Reuters describes it as a fifth consecutive advance and a three-week high.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 245,975 mt, −250 — a second consecutive draw. The sequence since the 35-day streak ended reads 246,925 → 246,825 → 246,725 → 246,725 → 246,225 → 245,975. ⚑ Reuters and ING describe this level as the LOWEST SINCE 1990 — the hardest number in the edition.
  • ⊘ But the curve went back: cash is $0.50 BELOW 3M, a contango, from the $2.00 backwardation the prior edition called the outcome that ratifies London’s advance structurally. It lasted one session.
  • ⚑ Averages (exact): MA5 $3,250.80, MA10 $3,229.40, MA20 $3,252.60, MA30 $3,238.88, MA40 $3,220.45, MA60 $3,230.01. Cash is above ALL SIX by $52.20, $73.60, $50.40, $64.12, $82.55 and $72.99 — a third consecutive session.
  • ⚑ The “$6.60 problem” is resolved: the MA20 clearance widened from $6.60 to $50.40.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +$15.10, MA10 +$11.15, MA20 +$3.70, MA30 +$3.26, MA40 +$4.05; ⊘ MA60 −$3.10.
  • ⚑ London’s 20-session cash percentile rose from 38.5% to 63.4% and the 60-session from 40.9% to 50.9%. Against SHFE’s 100.0% and 100.0%, London remains the less extended of the two boards.
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio fell from 7.4029 to 7.3781 (24,370 ÷ $3,303.00). London rose 1.46% against Shanghai’s 1.12%, so the compression has resumed (derivation).
  • ⊘ FOUR intraday London calibers appear this edition and none reconciles: 3M $3,298 (+0.4%) with an intraday high of $3,306.50 described as “highest since August 13”; 3M $3,308.50 (+0.8%) with an intraday high of $3,328.50 described as “highest since August 12”; and a TradingEconomics print of $3,319.50 (+0.83%). All listed against Westmetall’s settlement; none reconciled.
  • Other base metals (Reuters caliber): copper $14,268.50 (+0.4%), zinc $3,855 (−0.2%), lead $1,900 (+0.3%), nickel $16,800 (−0.7%), tin $54,435 (+0.5%).

⊘ Alumina: the price leg passed, the positioning leg failed for a fifth time, and the settlement went the other way

  • AO2610: open 2,700, high 2,730, low 2,688, close 2,725, settlement 2,707, prior settlement 2,716. Close-to-close +17 (+0.63%); against the prior settlement +9. Volume 147,389 (−39.8%); OI 127,844 (−7,667).
  • ⊘ The prior test read: “a day close above 2,718 that ends the four-session open-interest decline resolves the price-versus-positioning divergence bullishly.” The result: a close of 2,725 (above 2,718 — the price leg passed) on open interest DOWN 7,667 (a fifth consecutive decline — the positioning leg failed). The test splits for a second consecutive edition, but the leg that passes has changed.
  • ⊘ The settlement moved the opposite way from the close: 2,707 is 11 BELOW cost caliber one (2,718), where the prior settlement of 2,716 was 2 below. In the same session, the close crossed above cost while the settlement fell further beneath it (derivation).
  • ⊘ Open interest from August 27’s 280,950: 228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511 → 127,844 — cumulatively −153,106 lots, or −54.5%, in five sessions.
  • ⚑ Averages: MA5 2,692.20, MA10 2,677.70, MA20 2,684.60, MA30 2,682.67, MA40 2,692.95, MA60 2,741.38. The close cleared the first five (by 32.80, 47.30, 40.40, 42.33 and 32.05), a second consecutive five-of-six, with MA60 16.38 above (it was 36.57). The 20-session percentile is 98.2% and the 60-session rose from 28.9% to 34.2%.
  • ⚑ And the night added the last one: a last print of 2,743, 1.62 above MA60 — alumina’s first six-of-six of this run. ⊘ On a sixth consecutive open-interest decline.
  • The forward strip rose with it: AO2611 closed 2,732, AO2612 2,741, AO2701 2,756 (OI +8,214). Alumina complex volume 279,381; complex OI 458,156 (−1,247) — the forward build nearly offset the front-month liquidation, which is a different picture from the prior edition’s complex figure of −16,928 (derivation).
  • AD2610 closed 23,635 (+245, +1.05%), settlement 23,545, OI 5,803 (−481), above ALL SIX of its averages for a fourth session (MA5 23,414.00, MA10 23,257.00, MA20 23,281.50, MA30 23,263.17, MA40 23,185.38, MA60 23,114.50) by 221.00 to 520.50. Percentiles 98.6% and 96.0%. The AD−AL discount went 675 → 710 → 735 on the day and 825 overnight — the widest this brief has recorded.

⚑ September 3 spot: all nine calibers rose — and South China rose the least

  • Shanghai spot 24,340 (+260, range 24,320–24,360); Changjiang 24,340 (+260, range 24,320–24,360); Zhongyuan 24,340 (+260).
  • Nanhai/Foshan 24,850 (+250, range 24,800–24,900); Nanhai’s own Shanghai A00 caliber 24,410 (+280, range 24,360–24,460); Guangdong Nanchu 24,550 (+230, range 24,520–24,580).
  • All four Chalco regions were raised: East China 24,350 (+270), South China 24,550 (+250), Southwest 24,370 (+260), Central China 24,210 (+260). Central China is back above 24,000.
  • ⚑ All nine calibers rose — the exact reverse of the prior edition, in which six of nine fell.
  • ⊘ But the basis widened from −20 to −30: spot rose 260 against a board that rose 270, so spot still lags by 10. Against the front-month AL2609’s close of 24,365 the basis is −25, unchanged.
  • ⚑⊘ All three spreads NARROWED: Nanhai−Shanghai 510 (from 520), Nanchu−Shanghai 210 (from 240), Chalco South−East 200 (from 220). The prior watchlist asked whether South China’s separation would widen for a second consecutive session and become a new sequence. It did not — South China rose the least (Nanchu +230, Nanhai +250, Chalco South +250), and the separation lasted one day.
  • ⊘ The Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao calibers were not retrievable for September 3. A secondary site shows an UNDATED “Huatong 99.85” caliber at 24,210–24,230 (average 24,220); it is a different purity caliber of unknown date, listed and not reconciled, and no spread is computed from it.
  • Nanhai/Foshan electrolytic plate 95,050 (+600).

Interpretation: the direction is right, the relative position is not

  • ⚑ The prior edition’s “spot fell 30 against a board that fell 10” appears this edition as its mirror: spot rose 260 against a board that rose 270. The absolute direction turning from down to up is an improvement; the relative position is still a lag, and the lag is unchanged at 10 (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The South China separation is falsified, and this is the cleanest question-directly-answered in the edition: the prior edition read three simultaneously widening spreads as “regional physical tightness has reappeared” and wrote that a second consecutive widening would upgrade it to a sequence. All three narrowed; the upgrade does not stand (interpretation).

Cost and the overseas physical market: no new print, two opposing carried items still standing

  • Carried (bearish): Japanese Q4 2026 premium offers $310–325/mt, down 18% to 22% on the quarter; a Chinese caliber reports it as “cut to $310”. These are offers, not a settlement, and remain unsettled.
  • Carried (bullish): Guinean imported bauxite spot mainstream $72–73/dry mt; September long-term contracts held flat with August, implying a landed cost of $73–74/dry mt; freight approaching $40/mt.
  • Changjiang composite alumina: East China 2,730 and South China 2,665, both carried. ⊘ SMM’s alumina index and Chalco’s five regional listings are login-walled for a FOURTH consecutive edition and are still carried at August 27 (index 2,676; Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660).
  • ⊘ ADC12 now carries FOUR unreconciled calibers: the 23,900 this brief has been carrying; Changjiang spot alloy 24,000; Changjiang composite East China 23,615; and a Foshan mainstream range of 23,500–23,800 (September 1, up 100–150 on the prior session). A fifth site shows an undated 23,700. A356.2 is quoted 24,400. All listed; no new spread is computed from them.
  • ⚑ Note the relationship between AD2610’s 23,635 and those four spot calibers: the futures price is now above three of them. This brief does not derive a basis from that, because the deliverable grade and the calibers do not match (interpretation).
  • Carried: September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance; secondary operating rate 49.1%; scrap 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Port Klang FOB $3,090; MJP spot premium $270/mt.

3 · Inventory

⚑ London at its lowest since 1990 — ⊘ and the edition’s named first-order test did not resolve

  • ⚑ LME stocks 245,975 mt, −250, a second consecutive draw. Reuters and ING describe the level as the lowest since 1990.
  • ⊘ The prior watchlist named “this afternoon’s SMM social inventory print” as this edition’s first-order test, calling it “the first genuine test in two editions”. It did not become retrievable. The 837,000 mt caliber (−15,000 w/w, read as an eighth consecutive draw and −169,000 mt cumulative from July 23) is therefore neither confirmed nor superseded, and the test is UNRESOLVED.
  • ⊘ What arrived instead does not reconcile with it: Mysteel puts China’s main-region electrolytic aluminium social inventory at 809,000 mt as of August 31, down 12,000 mt from August 27, with declines in Shanghai, Wuxi, Foshan, Tianjin and Chongqing, increases in Shenyang and Gongyi, and the rest flat. ⊘ Mysteel itself notes the figure includes roughly 107,000 mt of unclear-ownership, limited-liquidity material, so tradeable inventory is lower than reported. The two calibers differ by 28,000 mt; both are listed, neither is reconciled.
  • ⚑ The SHFE weekly caliber was revised upward by a third party again: Reuters and ING describe 391,498 mt as ELEVEN consecutive weekly declines from a six-year high of 528,885 mt on June 12 — a cumulative −137,387 mt. This brief carried TEN weeks and roughly −135,800 mt. Both listed.
  • ⚑ Bonded stocks have a fresh September 3 print and it is confirmed flat: Shanghai 89,000 mt plus Guangdong 27,000 mt = 116,000 mt, unchanged week-on-week. External material is still not returning.
  • ⊘ National alumina inventory, September 3 weekly assessment: 7.27 million mt in total, up 8,000 mt — smelter feedstock +16,000 to 3.444 million mt, refinery internal +9,000 to 1.234 million mt, port −19,000 to 1.017 million mt. ⊘ Those components sum to +6,000, not +8,000; both figures are listed, neither is reconciled.
  • Carried (SMM daily calibers, September 2): three-location ingot 651,500 mt (Guangdong 144,500, Wuxi 304,500, Gongyi 202,500), −8,000 on the prior print; two-location billet 89,000 mt (Guangdong 65,000, Wuxi 24,000), +1,500 day-on-day. ⊘ That two-location daily billet caliber is NOT the same as the national mainstream-consumption weekly caliber of 140,500 mt at August 31 that this brief carries; both are listed.
  • Carried: SHFE registered warrants 245,510 mt (−28,691); SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827); cast alloy 28,100 mt (+2,500). ⊘ SHFE daily warrant tonnages not retrievable (the exchange endpoint returned 404 this morning); the SHFE weekly warehouse print publishes this afternoon.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The weight of “lowest since 1990” is that it changes the medium-term frame rather than the session. This brief carried a “record low of 271kt” on July 28; the current 245,975 mt is roughly 25,000 mt below that point, and it arrives after two consecutive sessions of renewed drawing (interpretation).
  • ⊘ The domestic column, by contrast, got LESS clear this edition: last edition it was “carried by construction, tested today”; this edition the test did not arrive and a second caliber 28,000 mt away did. Both calibers point down; their magnitudes do not agree, and this brief does not merge them (interpretation).
  • ⊘ Alumina inventory is building, which is the most direct bearish evidence in the alumina column this edition, and it points the same way as six consecutive open-interest declines (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ There is one macro event this edition, and it turned the column bullish for the first time in this run

  • ⚑ Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at a Reuters event that if incoming data confirm inflation pressures are cooling toward the 2% target, he is inclined to argue in favour of holding rates steady at the next policy meeting. He also said he would be willing to hike if inflation surged, but the market priced the first half.
  • ⚑ CME FedWatch caliber: the probability of a 25bp September hike fell to 50.5% (also reported as 50.4%) from 63.2% the previous day. In this brief’s record, a hike is for the first time no longer the base case. ⊘ It must be noted that this brief carried 66% and “roughly 70%”, while the sources cite a prior value of 63.2% — three calibers, listed and not reconciled, though all three point the same way: sharply lower.
  • ⚑ The dollar index fell 0.69% to 98.91, breaking below 99. This morning’s live caliber reads 98.9575 with a session range of 98.9145–99.0460. Against the 99.538–99.76 band carried, this is a decisive break rather than the prior edition’s stall.
  • ⚑ The prior watchlist read: “if payrolls is weak, pricing falls and the dollar breaks below 99.5, the macro column turns bullish for the first time in this run.” That condition was met — one day early, without payrolls, on a speech. This brief books it as met on its own terms while recording that the channel differed from the one assumed (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The yen rose more than 2% to 155.36, the dollar’s weakest since late February; around 155.65 this morning. ⚑ The attribution matters: BOJ data showed no official intervention behind the prior session’s move, and analysts attribute the rally to bets on the size of a hike at the September 17–18 meeting. That is a different explanation from the “suspected intervention” this brief carried, and the central-bank data governs here.
  • ⚑ Gold: the COMEX caliber reads $4,539.90 against the $4,414.60 carried, +$125.30 (+2.84%), a second consecutive rise; Reuters puts the move at +2.3%, with spot gold above $4,360. Both listed.
  • ⚑ Both ends of the Treasury curve fell for a second day: 10-year 4.761% (from 4.796%), 2-year 4.322% (from 4.379%).
  • ⚑ US equities had their best session since August 4: Dow 53,686.11 (+624.16, +1.18%), S&P 500 7,747.71 (+81.11, +1.06%), Nasdaq 26,584.06 (+366.23, +1.40%). Bitcoin $81,547, back above $80,000.
  • ⊘ Crude split: WTI (October) $91.30 (+0.32%), a fourth consecutive gain; Brent (November) $95.52 (−0.12%), its first decline in four.
  • ⊘ The October fed funds strip is absent for a SEVENTH consecutive edition — the mid-path of the Fed remains a blind spot.
  • US August payrolls publish tonight, September 4, at roughly 90,000.

Interpretation: the gold–crude rule this brief wrote should be retired, not fired

  • ⊘ The rule read: “if crude extends and gold turns higher, the shock should be reclassified as a geopolitical supply shock and reads net bullish for aluminium.” This session gold rose 2.84% while BRENT FELL 0.12% and WTI rose only 0.32%, and every source attributes gold to Waller, the dollar and yields. The prior edition recorded that the rule’s channel was contaminated; this edition’s evidence is that the channel is monetary. The rule is formally retired and no longer scored (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The macro column moves from NEUTRAL to BULLISH — the first time in this advance. Five items point one way: hike pricing 63.2% → 50.5%, the dollar through 99, a yen rally driven by rate expectations rather than intervention, a second consecutive fall at both ends of the curve, and equities and gold rising together.
  • ⊘ Three constraints must be recorded alongside it: it rests on one governor’s speech rather than data; payrolls lands tonight and a strong print could retract the whole repricing at once; and the October strip is missing for a seventh edition, so the mid-path is still unpriceable (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Overseas: the hardest item this edition is an inventory number, and it is structural

  • ⚑ New: LME stocks of 245,975 mt are described by Reuters and ING as the lowest since 1990. The ING strategist’s explanation: “Aluminium is supported by physical market tightness and expectations of firmer seasonal demand in China.”
  • ⚑ LME aluminium rose for a fifth consecutive session to a three-week high, consistent with the stock caliber.
  • Carried: RUSAL’s proposal to mothball 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity and the SUBR bauxite mine (still a proposal); Guinea’s export cap target of roughly 150 million mt/y (−25%); Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cut of 1.2 million mt/y from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt; Alunorte held at 50% on gas; Qatalum at roughly 60% of nameplate; Alba’s lines 1–3 down (19%); EGA’s Al Taweelah refilled from 18% to 25%.
  • ⊘ Carried (bearish): Japanese Q4 premium offers $310–325/mt, −18% to −22% q/q; US scrap exports +21% to 1.25 million mt in H1.

⊘ Cost: alumina’s price, inventory and positioning point three different ways this edition

  • ⚑ Alumina closed 2,725 on September 3, 7 above cost caliber one (2,718); the night extended to 2,743 and cleared MA60.
  • ⊘ But the settlement of 2,707 is 11 BELOW cost caliber one; national alumina inventory rose to 7.27 million mt (+8,000); and open interest fell for a fifth day and a sixth night, cumulatively −153,106 lots (−54.5%) since August 27.
  • ⚑ One balancing item must be recorded: alumina complex open interest fell only 1,247 lots while AO2701 added 8,214. Money is migrating down the curve rather than leaving the contract (interpretation).
  • Carried: China’s installed alumina capacity 120.95 million mt/y and operating capacity 95.90 million mt/y, roughly 25.05 million mt/y idle at an operating rate near 79.3%; August output expected to exceed 8 million mt.
  • Carried: Guinean imported bauxite spot $72–73/dry mt with September long-term flat and a landed estimate of $73–74; September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt.

Demand and policy

  • Carried: RatingDog August manufacturing PMI 51.5 (a six-month high); the NBS August print 49.8; the aluminium processing sector’s August composite PMI 48.7%.
  • Carried: weekly operating rates to August 27 — extrusion 50.6% (−0.2), sheet and strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3), cable 63.0% (+0.6). No update this edition.
  • ⚑ This edition’s demand evidence is price-based rather than quantity-based: all nine spot calibers rose, Chalco Central China regained 24,000, and spot’s lag against the board did not widen (it held at 10). The prior edition’s “downstream is taking metal at higher levels” is partially restored, but it has no independent confirmation from volumes or operating rates (interpretation).
  • Carried (policy): the Industrial Green and Low-Carbon Development 15th Five-Year Plan is in force with no detail yet on the smelting capacity ceiling; China’s smelter operating rate is 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling, leaving no domestic supply elasticity; Canada’s September 8 counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% with aluminium bars named.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

September 3 transactions and sentiment

  • East China: Shanghai spot 24,340 (+260), basis −30. Spot’s gain of 260 is slightly smaller than the board’s 270 — holders followed the rally up but did not match it.
  • South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,850 (+250), Nanchu 24,550 (+230), Chalco South 24,550 (+250) — the smallest gains in the country. Nanhai−Shanghai narrowed to 510 and Nanchu−Shanghai to 210.
  • Central China: Chalco Central China 24,210 (+260), back above the 24,000 handle and in line with the rest of the country.
  • ⚑ East and South China re-converged in direction this edition: last edition East fell 30 while South rose 20 to 40; this edition all nine rose and South rose the least. The pattern this brief read as South China regional tightness was erased inside a single session (interpretation).
  • Shipment willingness: moves from NEUTRAL to WEAK-ish (less reluctance) — holders raised every caliber into a sharply higher board, but by less than the board, which is not the signature of broad reluctance. Purchasing willingness: moves from WEAK-ish back to NEUTRAL — the basis widened by only 10 against a board that rose 270, which is an acceptable lag (interpretation).
  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable; the above is inferred from price, magnitude and spread behaviour, and is not an SMM index.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑ Both legs of the prior first-order test passed: AL2610 closed 24,370 (135 above 24,235) with open interest up 14,516. “The board is participating” is upgraded to a trend fact.
  • ⚑ The gain of +270 (+1.12%) is the largest single-session advance of this run.
  • ⚑ Volume of 229,600 is the highest of the last sixty sessions.
  • ⚑ Open interest +14,516 is the second-largest build in forty sessions; AL2611 added 12,573 and the complex added 21,059, so the build is not a roll.
  • ⚑ 24,290 (the August 12 close and twenty-session close top) and 24,300 (the sixty-session close top) were both cleared, with the close 80 above the former.
  • ⚑ 24,370 is the highest close since June 5 — sixty-three sessions — and both close percentiles read 100.0%.
  • ⚑ The entire August 3–12 decline is retraced and exceeded.
  • ⚑ The close is above all six averages by 255.00 to 795.08, a fourth consecutive session above the whole band.
  • ⚑ MA60 rose 4.84, its first advance after three consecutive declines.
  • ⚑ The night printed 24,510, through August 12’s 24,490 and the highest tick since June 5.
  • ⚑ LME cash $3,303.00 (+$47.50, +1.46%), the highest since August 12 and a fifth consecutive advance.
  • ⚑ LME stocks 245,975 mt (−250), described by Reuters and ING as the lowest since 1990, on a second consecutive draw.
  • ⚑ LME cash is above all six of its averages for a third session, and the MA20 clearance widened from $6.60 to $50.40.
  • ⚑ LME cash sits at only the 63.4th percentile of its 20-session range and 50.9th of its 60-session, against SHFE’s 100.0% and 100.0% — London retains room.
  • ⚑ The SHFE-LME ratio fell from 7.4029 to 7.3781; London is leading again.
  • ⚑ ING: “Aluminium is supported by physical market tightness and expectations of firmer seasonal demand in China.”
  • ⚑ SHFE weekly stocks of 391,498 mt were revised by a third-party caliber to ELEVEN consecutive weekly declines, −137,387 mt from June 12’s six-year high of 528,885 mt.
  • ⚑ Bonded stocks 116,000 mt (September 3, flat w/w) — external material is not returning.
  • ⚑ The Mysteel social caliber of 809,000 mt (August 31, −12,000 w/w) points the same direction as the caliber this brief carries, even though the magnitudes disagree.
  • ⚑ All nine spot calibers rose, the exact reverse of the prior edition’s six declines; Chalco Central China regained 24,000.
  • ⚑ Fed Governor Waller backed holding rates; September hike odds collapsed from 63.2% to 50.5% and a hike is no longer the base case.
  • ⚑ The dollar index fell 0.69% to 98.91, breaking 99 — the prior watchlist’s “dollar breaks below 99.5” condition is met.
  • ⚑ USD/JPY broke 156 to 155.36, the dollar’s weakest since late February, on BOJ hike bets rather than intervention.
  • ⚑ COMEX gold $4,539.90 (+2.84%), a second consecutive rise.
  • ⚑ The 10-year fell to 4.761% and the 2-year to 4.322%, a second consecutive decline at both ends.
  • ⚑ US equities had their best session since August 4 (Dow +1.18%, S&P +1.06%, Nasdaq +1.40%).
  • ⚑ WTI $91.30 (+0.32%), a fourth consecutive gain — the energy cost tail persists.
  • ⚑ Alumina closed 2,725, 7 above cost caliber one; the night reached 2,743 and cleared MA60 for the first time in this run — six of six.
  • ⚑ Alumina complex open interest fell only 1,247 lots while AO2701 added 8,214 — money is migrating down the curve, not leaving.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s 60-session percentile rose from 28.9% to 34.2%.
  • ⚑ Guinean bauxite at $72–73/dry mt with September long-term flat and freight near $40 — the ore cost floor is still rising.
  • ⚑ AD2610 closed 23,635 (+245) above all six of its averages for a fourth session, at the 98.6th and 96.0th percentiles.
  • ⚑ The forward alumina and bauxite book remains cut or capped in five places (RUSAL, Guinea, Yarwun, Alcoa, Alunorte); Qatalum at ~60%, Alba −19%, Alunorte at 50% — the overseas gaps persist.
  • ⚑ China’s smelter operating rate of 98.4% against the 45-million-mt ceiling leaves no domestic supply elasticity.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘ The night handed the day’s confirmation back: open 24,475, high 24,510, last only 24,390 — 120 below its own VWAP, 85 below its own open — on open interest up just 178 lots.
  • ⊘ Last edition the day rejected and the night bid; this edition the day bid and the night rejected. The same structure in the opposite order, so the structure itself is not yet directional evidence.
  • ⊘ Night volume of 71,757 was 21.2% below the prior night.
  • ⊘ The day high of 24,425 failed to reach August 12’s 24,490; the twenty-session intraday top was not cleared in daylight.
  • ⊘ London’s backwardation lasted exactly one session: $2.00 back to a $0.50 contango.
  • ⊘ SHFE’s 20- and 60-session close percentiles are both 100.0% — position alone now offers more room below than above (interpretation).
  • ⊘ London’s MA60 fell $3.10 this session.
  • ⊘ The basis widened from −20 to −30; spot underperformed the board for a second consecutive session.
  • ⊘ All three South China spreads narrowed, erasing in one session the “regional tightness has reappeared” reading of the prior edition.
  • ⊘ Alumina’s positioning leg failed for a fifth time: open interest −7,667, cumulatively −153,106 lots (−54.5%) since August 27, with a sixth decline of 3,198 overnight.
  • ⊘ Alumina’s settlement of 2,707 is 11 below cost caliber one, having been 2 below one session earlier.
  • ⊘ National alumina inventory rose to 7.27 million mt (+8,000), with smelter feedstock and refinery internal stocks both building.
  • ⊘ Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were login-walled for a FOURTH consecutive edition, so the industry-confirmation leg remains untestable.
  • ⊘ The SMM Thursday social print that the prior watchlist named as this edition’s first-order test was not retrievable; the test is UNRESOLVED and the 837,000 mt caliber is neither confirmed nor superseded.
  • ⊘ The new Mysteel caliber of 809,000 mt differs from the carried caliber by 28,000 mt, and Mysteel itself states roughly 107,000 mt of it is unclear-ownership, limited-liquidity material.
  • ⊘ The October fed funds strip is absent for a SEVENTH consecutive edition.
  • ⊘ This edition’s macro turn rests on one governor’s speech rather than data; payrolls lands tonight at roughly 90,000 and could retract the repricing at once.
  • ⊘ Brent $95.52 (−0.12%), its first decline in four; the gold–crude discriminator rule is formally retired this edition.
  • ⊘ The AD−AL discount widened from 710 to 735 on the day and to 825 overnight — the widest this brief has recorded.
  • ⊘ Japanese Q4 2026 premium offers at $310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q) remain the hardest bearish physical item on the book, with neither an update nor a rebuttal this edition.
  • ⊘ China’s roughly 25.05 million mt/y of idle alumina refining capacity still exceeds the sum of every cut in the forward book, and August output is expected to exceed 8 million mt.
  • ⊘ Cast alloy inventory at 28,100 mt remains carried; Canada’s September 8 counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% with aluminium bars named; EGA’s Al Taweelah has refilled from 18% to 25%.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The prior edition wrote a first-order test with two explicit legs and the day session passed both without ambiguity, the first time in this advance that a test this brief set has been passed in daylight: the test required a close above 24,235 with open interest rising again, and AL2610 closed 24,370 — one hundred and thirty-five above it — on volume of 229,600 that is the highest in sixty sessions and an open-interest build of 14,516 lots to 256,847 that is the second-largest in forty, with a gain of 270 that is the largest single session of the whole run, while AL2611 added 12,573 and the complex added 21,059, so this build, like the prior edition’s liquidation, cannot be attributed to a roll; 24,290, which the prior edition called today’s single most important price because it was the August 12 close, the twenty-session close top and the previous night’s high at once, was neither defended nor merely touched but cleared by eighty, taking 24,300, the sixty-session close top, with it, fully retracing and exceeding the August 3–12 decline, making 24,370 the highest close in the sixty-three sessions since June 5 and putting both the 20- and 60-session close percentiles at 100.0%, while MA60, whose contrarian decline this brief flagged in each of the last three editions, turned up by 4.84; London delivered the hardest number in the edition, with LME stocks of 245,975 mt described by Reuters and ING as the lowest since 1990 and cash settling $3,303.00, up $47.50 or 1.46%, the highest since August 12 and a fifth consecutive advance, while the MA20 clearance on which the prior edition said London’s entire six-of-six structure rested — six dollars and sixty cents — widened to $50.40, and London’s 20-session percentile of 63.4% against Shanghai’s 100.0% leaves it the less extended of the two boards; the macro column turned bullish for the first time in this run and turned on the prior watchlist’s literal condition — “if pricing falls and the dollar breaks below 99.5, the macro column turns bullish for the first time in this run” — except that it arrived a day early and without payrolls, on a speech: Fed Governor Waller said he would support holding rates if inflation keeps cooling, September hike odds collapsed from 63.2% to 50.5% so that a hike is for the first time in this brief’s record no longer the base case, the dollar fell 0.69% to 98.91 and broke 99, the yen rose past 156 to 155.36 for the dollar’s weakest since late February with BOJ data showing no intervention behind it and the driver identified as bets on the September 17–18 meeting, gold added 2.84% to $4,539.90, both ends of the curve fell for a second day and equities had their best session since August 4; and set against all of that is that everything which happened after the bell went the other way and inverted the prior edition’s pattern exactly, because AL2610 opened the night at 24,475, a hundred and five above the close, printed 24,510 — through August 12’s 24,490 and the highest tick since June 5 — and then handed the entire move back, ending at 24,390, twenty above the day close, eighty-five below its own open and a hundred and twenty below its own VWAP, on an open-interest build of one hundred and seventy-eight lots against the day’s fourteen and a half thousand, so that last edition the day rejected and the night bid while this edition the day bid and the night rejected, the same structure in the opposite order and therefore not yet directional evidence in itself; London’s backwardation lasted exactly one session and went back to a $0.50 contango; alumina split this brief’s own test for a second consecutive edition, only with the passing leg exchanged, closing 2,725 to clear cost caliber one by 7 while open interest fell 7,667 for a fifth consecutive session and a cumulative −153,106 lots or −54.5% since August 27, and while the settlement of 2,707 moved from two below cost to eleven below it in the same session, with the night then clearing MA60 at 2,743 for alumina’s first six-of-six of this run on a sixth consecutive decline, against a national alumina inventory that rose to 7.27 million mt — with the balancing item that alumina complex open interest fell only 1,247 lots while AO2701 added 8,214, which is migration down the curve rather than departure; the physical column improved in level and did not improve in relative position, because all nine spot calibers rose against six of nine falling last edition and Chalco Central China regained 24,000, but spot rose 260 against a board that rose 270 so the basis widened from −20 to −30, and all three South China spreads narrowed because South China rose the least, which answers the prior watchlist’s question in the negative: the separation lasted one day and did not become a sequence; and finally the item the prior edition named as this edition’s first-order test simply did not resolve, because the SMM Thursday social print never became retrievable, leaving the 837,000 mt caliber neither confirmed nor superseded and substituting a Mysteel caliber of 809,000 mt that differs by 28,000 mt and roughly an eighth of which Mysteel itself calls unclear-ownership material; so the conclusion is that the bulls newly own the daylight tape, London’s price level, an inventory number called the lowest since 1990 and the entire macro column, which is a materially stronger position than they held twenty-four hours ago, while the bears own the overnight rejection at 24,510, the restored contango, alumina’s positioning book, a wider basis and a first-order inventory test that went unanswered — with payrolls landing tonight into a market that has already priced September as a coin flip, and the SHFE weekly print landing this afternoon.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s (September 4) Day and Night Sessions

  • ⚑ The contradiction between the day and the night has to settle today, and the discriminating levels are 24,390 and 24,510. The day confirmed the advance with +270 and +14,516 lots; the night handed it all back at 24,510 on a build of 178. The test is clean: a day close above the night’s last print of 24,390 with open interest rising again reclassifies last night’s giveback as high-level turnover rather than rejection, and puts 24,490 and 24,510 immediately above; a fall back below 24,275 (the September 3 settlement) on falling open interest reclassifies yesterday’s advance as a single macro-driven impulse and makes 24,510 the marker of this run’s high.
  • ⚑ 24,490 and 24,510: the twenty-session intraday top was crossed overnight, and today asks whether it can be held in daylight. 24,490 is the August 12 high; 24,510 is last night’s high and the highest print since June 5. Trade and a close above both opens 24,520 (the June 5 high), 24,625 (the June 4 close) and 24,930 (the June 2 close), bringing the whole June range back into view; repeated rejection there converts the pair from “crossed” into “confirmed resistance” and makes yesterday’s build a purchase at the top.
  • ⚑ US August payrolls tonight (roughly 90,000), landing in a market that has already priced September as a coin flip. Hike odds have collapsed from 63.2% to 50.5% and the dollar has broken 99, all of it on a Waller speech rather than data. A materially weak print lets pricing fall further and gives the dollar a run at 98.5, confirming the macro column’s bullish turn with data; a materially strong print can retract the whole repricing at once, and aluminium has no positional cushion at the 100.0th percentile. Watch also whether the October strip finally becomes retrievable after seven consecutive absences.
  • ⚑ This afternoon’s SHFE weekly warehouse print, and whether the SMM social print resumes. The last SHFE weekly was 391,498 mt at August 28, described by a third-party caliber as an eleventh consecutive decline; a twelfth today would make the domestic draw longer than anything else in this brief’s record. The unresolved first-order test may also settle today: if the SMM print resumes, the 28,000 mt gap between it and Mysteel’s 809,000 mt can be explained; if it does not, this brief will be carrying one judgement on two non-reconciling calibers for a second consecutive edition, and the reliability of that judgement should be marked down (interpretation).
  • ⚑ London: whether stocks draw for a third session, and whether the curve returns to backwardation. 245,975 mt is already called the lowest since 1990, on two consecutive draws; a third turns “physical tightness” from a narrative into a sequence. Watch the $0.50 contango alongside it: the prior edition’s $2.00 backwardation lived exactly one session, so a return to backwardation today is a second structural confirmation of nearby tightness, while a contango widening beyond $5.00 would attribute yesterday’s rally more to the dollar than to the physical market.
  • ⚑ Alumina: price is above cost and the night has cleared all six averages; only positioning has not followed, and the levels are 2,741.38 and 2,718. A day close above MA60 (2,741.38) that ends the five-session open-interest decline resolves the price-versus-positioning divergence bullishly and allows this brief to withdraw two editions of “unresolved”; a close below cost caliber one (2,718) on a seventh consecutive decline should be formally judged a passive advance dragged along by aluminium without funding of its own. Watch too whether the 7.27-million-mt national alumina build extends, and whether Chalco’s five regional listings finally become retrievable — untestable for four editions running.
  • ⚑ Whether spot catches up with the board, and whether the basis recovers inside −20. All nine calibers rose yesterday, but spot still lagged by 10 and the basis widened from −20 to −30. If spot follows last night’s gap higher and the basis returns inside −20, “downstream is taking metal at higher levels” is restored as an operative judgement; if the board rises again while spot lags and the basis widens beyond −50, this advance still has no physical endorsement. Watch whether Nanhai−Shanghai (510), Nanchu−Shanghai (210) and Chalco South−East (200) narrow for a second consecutive session — if they do, South China’s structural tightness should be formally recorded as faded.

免责声明: 本简报仅为行业信息汇编与研究参考,所有数据均标注来源口径,确认数据与市场解读已分栏标示。本简报不构成任何投资建议、要约或招揽,亦不对任何交易决策承担责任。期货与现货市场存在风险,读者应自行核实数据并独立判断。标注 ⊘ 者为口径冲突、仅有二手来源、尚未执行的提议或写稿时未取得之数据;标注「转载」者为自上期以来无新数据、按构造不变的数据。本期特别提示:夜盘数据为实时报价而非结算价,将于下一交易日由交易所文件重述;上期点名为本期一级检验的 SMM 周四社会库存印记未取得,该检验状态为「未决」,而新出现的钢联口径 809,000 吨与本简报载入的 837,000 吨相差 28,000 吨,两者并列不做调和,且钢联自述其中约 107,000 吨权属不清;中铝五地氧化铝报价连续第四期因需登录未取得,该项判别标准为「无法检验」而非「未通过」;伦铝盘中价格存在四条互不一致的口径,9 月加息概率存在三条口径,黄金、ADC12、社会库存与上期所周度连降周数均存在两条以上并列口径,本简报一律不做调和;全国氧化铝库存的三项分项合计与总量增幅不一致,已在正文中标明;日本四季度升水 310–325 美元为报盘而非结算,尚未定案;「LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低」为路透与 ING 的表述,本简报转述而非独立核实。

Disclaimer: This brief is an industry information compilation and research reference. All figures are labeled with their source caliber, and confirmed data is separated from market interpretation throughout. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and no responsibility is accepted for any trading decision. Futures and physical markets carry risk; readers should verify the data independently and form their own judgement. Items marked ⊘ denote conflicting calibers, secondary-source-only data, proposals that have not been executed, or data not retrievable at the time of writing; items marked “carried” are unchanged by construction because no new data has published since the prior edition. Special notes for this edition: night-session figures are live quotes rather than settlements and will be restated from the exchange file next session; the SMM Thursday social-inventory print that the prior edition named as this edition’s first-order test was not retrievable, so that test is UNRESOLVED, and the newly arrived Mysteel caliber of 809,000 mt differs from the 837,000 mt this brief carries by 28,000 mt — both are listed and neither is reconciled, with Mysteel itself stating roughly 107,000 mt of its figure is unclear-ownership material; Chalco’s five regional alumina listings were login-walled for a fourth consecutive edition, so that half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE rather than failed; four intraday London price calibers, three September hike-probability calibers, and two or more calibers each for gold, ADC12, social inventory and the SHFE weekly decline count are listed and deliberately not reconciled; the national alumina inventory components do not sum to the stated total change, and this is marked in the body; the Japanese Q4 premium of $310–325 is an offer range, not a settlement; and “LME stocks at their lowest since 1990” is Reuters’ and ING’s characterisation, relayed here rather than independently verified.