Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: SHFE hits 24,510 and closes back at exactly 24,290. US payrolls of 162,000 triple the consensus.周末版:沪铝冲高至 24,510 后收回至 24,290 整;美国非农新增 16.2 万人,为预期的三倍。

Saturday, September 5, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Saturday September 5 (Asia), after the close of the Friday September 4 night session at 01:00 Beijing. Both Chinese boards are shut until the Monday September 7 day session; London is shut until Monday. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the complete September 4 SHFE aluminium, alumina and cast-alloy boards taken from the exchange's own daily file, including complex open interest — note that the exchange's September 4 trading day INCLUDES the September 3 night session, so its open of 24,475 and high of 24,510 are that night's prints and are reconciled explicitly below; all eighteen SHFE moving averages recomputed exactly from the exchange's published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series, whose September 3 values reproduce the prior edition's published figures to the yuan on every one of the eighteen AL, AO and AD averages AND on all six published percentiles; LIVE quotes for the September 4 night session, which belongs to the Monday September 7 trading day and which opened AFTER the US payrolls release; the full September 4 spot table across ten calibers; the September 4 US employment report and macro close; and a new Chalco half-year alumina production figure. ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: the Westmetall September 4 LME cash and 3-month settlement row, which had not published as of writing — so no new EXACT London average can be computed and the September 3 set is carried explicitly as the last exact one, with a TradingEconomics intraday caliber listed beside it and NOT reconciled; the September 4 LME stock figure; SHFE daily warrant tonnages and the SHFE weekly warehouse print; SMM's absolute A00 quotation, its regional transaction premia, its alumina index and Chalco's five regional alumina listings (login-walled — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a FIFTH consecutive edition rather than failed); ⚑⊘ the SMM Thursday social-inventory print, which did NOT become retrievable for a SECOND consecutive edition — the prior watchlist committed this brief to DOWNGRADING the reliability of that judgement if so, and that downgrade is executed below; night-session open interest for all three contracts; the Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao spot calibers; and the October fed funds strip, absent for an EIGHTH consecutive edition.
Steven Yuan
⚑⊘ THE CLOSE IS 24,290 — WHICH IS THE AUGUST 12 CLOSE, TO THE YUAN The prior session cleared 24,290 by 80 and called it the twenty-session close top. This session came back and closed ON it — not near it, on it. The single hardest fact in the edition, and it is a level fact, not a direction fact
⊘ AL2610: THE TRADING DAY GAVE BACK 80 OF THE PRIOR DAY'S 270 Open 24,475, high 24,510, low 24,270, CLOSE 24,290, settlement 24,375, prior settlement 24,275. Close-to-close −80 (−0.33%); against the prior settlement +15. Volume 151,835 (−33.9%); OI 254,755 (−2,092)
⚑ CALIBER NOTE: THE OPEN AND HIGH BELONG TO THE PRIOR NIGHT, NOT TO DAYLIGHT The exchange's September 4 trading day contains the September 3 night session. 24,475 and 24,510 are that night's open and high, already published in the prior edition. The daylight portion traded DOWN from 24,390 to 24,290 (derivation)
⊘ THE SESSION FELL 220 FROM ITS OWN HIGH — 24,490 AND 24,510 ARE NOW RESISTANCE The prior watchlist asked whether the twenty-session intraday top could be held in daylight. It was not: the tape printed 24,510, then lost 240 to the low of 24,270 and closed 220 below the high. The pair is reclassified from 'cleared overnight' to 'confirmed resistance'
⊘ THE TWO-BRANCH TEST LANDED IN THE GAP BETWEEN ITS OWN BRANCHES It required a close above 24,390 with OI rising (bullish) or below 24,275 with OI falling (bearish). The close is 100 BELOW the first and 15 ABOVE the second. Neither branch fired. Recorded INDETERMINATE — neither passed nor failed (interpretation)
⚑ AND THE POSITIONING LEG SPLIT TOO — THE MAIN CONTRACT FELL, THE COMPLEX ROSE AL2610 OI −2,092, but AL2611 +7,757, AL2612 +369, and complex OI 617,604, UP 2,553. AL2609 shed 5,015 into delivery. This is a ROLL, not liquidation — the same argument this brief made in reverse on September 2 (derivation)
⚑ SHFE IS STILL ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES — AND ALL SIX ARE STILL RISING MA5 24,189.00 (+74.00), MA10 23,996.50 (+58.00), MA20 23,981.75 (+12.50), MA30 23,859.50 (+34.83), MA40 23,693.38 (+29.63), MA60 23,576.67 (+1.75). Above all six by 101.00 to 713.33 — a FIFTH consecutive session above the whole band
⊘ BUT THE MA5 CLEARANCE COLLAPSED FROM 255.00 TO 101.00 The fast average is now the only one within reach: a further 101 down puts the tape back inside its own band. The other five sit 293.50 to 713.33 away (derivation)
⊘ AND BOTH CLOSE PERCENTILES CAME OFF 100.0% The 20-session reads 89.7% and the 60-session 95.8%, against 100.0% and 100.0% one session ago. The tape is no longer at the top of its own range — it is 80 below it, which is the width of one day's give-back
⚑ THE WEEK WAS STILL DECISIVELY POSITIVE Against August 28's 23,920 the week closed +370 (+1.55%). Five sessions: 24,075, 24,110, 24,100, 24,370, 24,290. Four of five closed above the week's open level (derivation)
⚑ THE NIGHT SESSION TOOK THE PAYROLLS PRINT AND CLOSED HIGHER AL2610 night (trading day Sept 7): open 24,240 — 50 BELOW the close, into the data — low 24,200, high 24,355, last 24,320, VWAP 24,307, volume 52,304 (−27.1%). It gapped down on the print and finished 30 above the close and 13 above its own VWAP
⚑ AUGUST PAYROLLS TRIPLED THE CONSENSUS — 162,000 AGAINST 53,000 Above EVERY estimate in the Bloomberg survey. Unemployment held 4.1%. July was restated from −23,000 to +21,000 and June revised up 11,000 to 31,000, so the expansion's only monthly job loss never happened
⚑ BUT THE WAGE LINE WITHHELD PERMISSION — AND THAT IS WHY THE REPRICING WAS SMALL Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m to $37.75 and only +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle. A three-times beat bought roughly five to fifteen points of September pricing; a speech containing no data bought more than twenty (interpretation)
⊘ SEPTEMBER HIKE ODDS WENT BACK UP — ON FOUR CALIBERS THAT DO NOT RECONCILE ~50.5% before → about 65% immediately after, back to ~57% by the New York afternoon; a money-market caliber reads 61% from 54%; a fourth reads 52–58% against 63%. All four move the same way: UP. None is reconciled
⊘ THE DOLLAR RECLAIMED 99 AND THE PRIOR EDITION'S TRIGGER IS RETRACED DXY +0.13% at 99.13, with a second caliber at 99.27. The break below 99 that this brief recorded on September 3 as 'decisive' lasted exactly one session
⊘ GOLD FELL ON THREE CALIBERS AND EQUITIES GAVE BACK THE BEST DAY SINCE AUGUST 4 Spot gold −2.2% to $4,376.04; a COMEX caliber $4,384.91 (−1.98%); a third $4,476.60 (−1.39%). Dow 53,413 (−272.51, −0.51%), S&P 7,718 (−0.38%), Nasdaq 26,506 (−0.29%)
⊘ SO THE MACRO COLUMN REVERTS — IT WAS BULLISH FOR EXACTLY ONE EDITION The prior edition recorded the first bullish macro turn of this run, on Waller's speech. One data print took back the dollar break, most of the pricing move and the whole equity gain. Reverting to NEUTRAL-to-BEARISH (interpretation)
⚑⚑ THE BASIS FLIPPED FROM −30 TO +70 — AND IT DID IT ON A DOWN DAY Shanghai spot 24,360, UP 20, against a board that fell 80. A hundred-point swing in one session, and the first spot PREMIUM this brief has recorded since August 13. Spot outperforming a falling board is the strongest form this evidence can take (interpretation)
⚑ THAT ANSWERS THE PRIOR WATCHLIST FAR BEYOND WHAT IT ASKED It required the basis back inside −20 for 'downstream is taking metal at higher prices' to be restored. It came back a hundred points and crossed into premium. The judgement is restored, and restored on better evidence than the test specified
⊘ BUT ONLY FOUR OF TEN CALIBERS ROSE, AND SOUTH CHINA FELL OUTRIGHT Shanghai, Changjiang and Zhongyuan 24,360 (+20), Chalco East 24,360 (+10); ⊘ Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40), Guangdong Nanchu 24,520 (−30), Chalco South 24,520 (−30); Chalco Southwest 24,370 and Central 24,210 unchanged
⚑⊘ ALL THREE SOUTH CHINA SPREADS NARROWED A SECOND DAY — THE VERDICT IS NOW FORMAL Nanhai−Shanghai 510 → 450; Nanchu−Shanghai 210 → 160; Chalco South−East 200 → 160. The prior watchlist said a second consecutive narrowing would formally record South China tightness as faded. It is recorded as faded
⚑ ALUMINA CLOSED ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES IN A DAY SESSION — A FIRST FOR THIS RUN AO2610 2,757 (+32, +1.17%). MA5 2,714.00, MA10 2,683.60, MA20 2,687.55, MA30 2,683.40, MA40 2,693.53, MA60 2,738.68. Above all six by 43.00, 73.40, 69.45, 73.60, 63.47 and 18.32. The night confirmed it at 2,760
⚑ AND IT IS THE HIGHEST ALUMINA CLOSE IN FORTY-SEVEN SESSIONS The last close at or above 2,757 was July 1's 2,805. The day high of 2,779 is the highest print since July 22's 2,780 — thirty-two sessions. The 20-session close percentile reads 100.0%, the 60-session 44.0% (derivation)
⚑ THE SETTLEMENT FINALLY CLEARED COST TOO — BOTH LEGS NOW ABOVE Settlement 2,748 against cost caliber one of 2,718: THIRTY above. One session ago the close was 7 above cost while the settlement was 11 BELOW it. That contradiction is resolved in the bullish direction
⊘ AND THE POSITIONING LEG FAILED FOR A SIXTH TIME — BY THE LARGEST MARGIN YET Open interest 113,727, −14,117: a SIXTH consecutive decline and the largest since the August 28 collapse. From August 27's 280,950 the cumulative fall is −167,223 lots, or −59.5% of the book
⚑ BUT THE BOOK MIGRATED RATHER THAN LEFT — AND IT HAS NOW CROSSED OVER AO2701 open interest is 150,947, +5,658 — it now EXCEEDS the front contract's 113,727. The far month is the larger book for the first time. ⊘ Against that, complex OI 447,827 is down 10,329, so some genuine departure is also present
⊘ LONDON IS A BLANK THIS EDITION — NO SETTLEMENT, NO STOCK FIGURE Westmetall's September 4 row had not published as of writing, so NO new exact LME average can be computed. The September 3 set is carried as the last exact one. A TradingEconomics intraday caliber reads $3,292.65, −$27.00 (−0.81%), and is NOT reconciled with it
⊘ SO THE HARDEST BULLISH NUMBER THIS BRIEF CARRIES IS NOW A DAY STALE LME stocks of 245,975 mt — Reuters' 'lowest since 1990' — is a September 3 print with no September 4 confirmation. It is carried, not confirmed, and the two-session draw streak is unverified beyond September 3
⊘ THE SMM SOCIAL PRINT FAILED TO ARRIVE A SECOND TIME — THE PROMISED DOWNGRADE IS EXECUTED The prior watchlist committed this brief to downgrading the reliability of the domestic inventory judgement if the print stayed unavailable. It stayed unavailable. The 837,000 mt caliber is hereby marked LOW-CONFIDENCE and is no longer the brief's primary domestic caliber
⊘ AND A THIRD CALIBER ARRIVED, SO THERE ARE NOW THREE THAT DO NOT AGREE SMM's own end-August assessment: 852,000 mt at August 27, ~850,000 mt for the month-end, August destocking 106,000 mt and July over 170,000 mt. Against the 837,000 mt carried and Mysteel's 809,000 mt at August 31. Spread: 43,000 mt
⚑ ALL THREE CALIBERS STILL POINT THE SAME WAY, AND SMM EXPECTS IT TO CONTINUE SMM: cumulative destocking of 278,000 mt since July from a phase high of 1.13 million mt in early July, with destocking expected to continue through the first half of September. ⊘ It also calls the level the highest for the same period in nearly four years
⚑ NEW SUPPLY-SIDE DATUM: CHALCO'S H1 ALUMINA OUTPUT FELL 14.19% Metallurgical-grade alumina production of 7.38 million mt in the first half, down 14.19% year on year, from the company's own interim report. The largest single producer cutting by an eighth is a cost-floor datum, not a demand one
⚑ AD2610 HELD ABOVE ALL SIX FOR A FIFTH SESSION DESPITE FALLING Close 23,545 (−90, −0.38%). MA5 23,480.00, MA10 23,305.50, MA20 23,281.25, MA30 23,281.50, MA40 23,200.25, MA60 23,120.08. ⊘ AD−AL widened 735 → 745; the night narrowed it to 765 from 825. ⊘ AD2611's book is now triple the front's
⚑ METHOD: the close series reproduces the prior edition on all EIGHTEEN averages AND all SIX percentiles SHFE from the exchange's own AL2610/AO2610/AD2610 closes. Every published September 3 average — 24,115.00 through 23,574.92, 2,692.20 through 2,741.38, 23,414.00 through 23,114.50 — and the 100.0%/100.0%, 98.2%/34.2% and 98.6%/96.0% percentiles reproduce exactly before any September 4 value was computed

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与口径

  • 本期写于 9月5日(周六)上午,时点在 9月4日夜盘于今晨 01:00 收市之后。沪市两个盘面休市至 9月7日(周一)日盘,伦敦亦休市至周一。
  • ⚑ 关键口径说明(本期最重要的一条方法学声明):上期所的「9月4日交易日」在构造上包含了 9月3日夜盘。因此交易所文件中 AL2610 的开盘 24,475 与最高 24,510,是上期已经公布过的那一夜的开盘与最高,并非 9月4日白天所创。9月4日的白天部分是从夜盘末价 24,390 一路走低至 24,290,全程未创新高(此为推算)。本简报在下文所有比较中显式区分这两段。
  • ⚑ 方法:沪市均线由交易所公布的 AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 收盘序列精确计算。在计算任何 9月4日数值之前,三个序列已先行复算——9月3日的十八条均线(AL:24,115.00 / 23,938.50 / 23,969.25 / 23,824.67 / 23,663.75 / 23,574.92;AO:2,692.20 / 2,677.70 / 2,684.60 / 2,682.67 / 2,692.95 / 2,741.38;AD:23,414.00 / 23,257.00 / 23,281.50 / 23,263.17 / 23,185.38 / 23,114.50)以及六条分位(100.0%/100.0%、98.2%/34.2%、98.6%/96.0%)与上期公布值逐一分毫不差地吻合。
  • ⊘ 未取得:Westmetall 的 9月4日伦铝现货与三个月结算行,截至写稿时尚未发布——因此本期无法计算任何新的精确伦敦均线,9月3日的一组被显式沿用为「最后一组精确值」,并另列一条 TradingEconomics 盘中口径,不做调和、不用于任何计算;9月4日 LME 库存;上期所日度仓单吨位与周度库存;SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分区域升贴水、氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价(仍需登录——氧化铝的产业确认一项连续第五期为「无法检验」而非「未通过」);⚑⊘ SMM 周四社会库存印记连续第二期未取得,上期关注清单已就此作出明确承诺,该承诺在本期被执行;三个合约的夜盘持仓量;上海华通、上海物贸与中国宏桥现货口径;以及 10 月联邦基金利率条——连续第八期缺失。

⚑⊘ 沪铝:收盘价正好落在它前一日刚刚清掉的那个数字上

  • AL2610(主力):开 24,475,高 24,510,低 24,270,收 24,290,结算 24,375,前结算 24,275;收盘对收盘 −80(−0.33%),较前结算 +15;成交 151,835 手(−33.9%),持仓 254,755 手(−2,092)。
  • ⚑⊘ 本期最硬的一条事实是价位性的:24,290 正是 8月12日的收盘价,也正是上期称作「二十日收盘区间顶部」、并在 9月3日被上穿 80 元的那个数字。市场用一个交易日把它完整地走了回来,并且不是「接近」,而是正好收在上面。
  • ⊘ 全日自最高 24,510 回落 220 元至收盘,自最高回落 240 元至最低 24,270;交回了前一日 270 元涨幅中的 80 元。
  • ⊘ 成交 151,835 手,较前一日的六十日纪录 229,600 手下降 33.9%。
  • ⚑ 结算价 24,375 高于收盘 85 元,较前结算 24,275 上涨 100 元。以结算价计,本交易日是上涨的;以收盘价计是下跌的。两条并列(此为推算)。
  • 前月 AL2609 收 24,305(结算 24,340,持仓 30,035,−5,015),AL2611 收 24,280(结算 24,365,持仓 173,887,+7,757),AL2612 收 24,235(持仓 69,910,+369),AL2701 收 24,180(持仓 43,937,−35)。铝品种合计成交 244,604 手,合计持仓 617,604 手(+2,553)。

解读:上期的两分支检验落进了两个分支之间的空档

  • ⊘ 上期检验原文有两条分支:「若日盘收在夜盘末价 24,390 之上且持仓继续增加,则夜盘那一次回吐应被归类为高位换手而非拒绝」;「若日盘回补至 24,275(9月3日结算)之下且持仓转为下降,则昨日的增仓上行应被重新归类为一次由宏观消息驱动的单日脉冲,而 24,510 将成为本轮的头部标记」。
  • ⊘ 实际:收盘 24,290,低于第一条分支 100 元,高于第二条分支 15 元。两条分支均未触发。
  • ⚑ 而持仓一项本身也是分裂的:主力减仓 2,092 手,但 AL2611 增仓 7,757 手、AL2612 增仓 369 手、品种合计增仓 2,553 手,AL2609 减仓 5,015 手属临近交割的自然流出。因此主力的减仓是移仓而非离场——这与本简报 9月2日在相反方向上作出的论证是同一条标准(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 本简报据此把该检验记为「不确定」:既未通过,也未失败。本简报不会为盘面没有给出的答案制造一个结论(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 但另一个问题被干净且否定地回答了:上期问「24,490 与 24,510 能否在日盘被守住」。答案是不能——盘面自 24,510 下跌 240 元,收在 220 元之下。这一对价位由「已被穿过」正式改记为「已被确认为压力」(此为解读)。

⚑ 均线:六条全部守住,而且六条全部仍在上行

  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 24,189.00、MA10 23,996.50、MA20 23,981.75、MA30 23,859.50、MA40 23,693.38、MA60 23,576.67。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 101.00、293.50、308.25、430.50、596.62、713.33 元,为连续第五个交易日站上全带。
  • ⚑ 均线自身变动:MA5 +74.00、MA10 +58.00、MA20 +12.50、MA30 +34.83、MA40 +29.63、MA60 +1.75。六条同时上行,MA60 连续第二个交易日上行。
  • ⊘ 但 MA5 的守住幅度由 255.00 塌至 101.00。快线现在是唯一处于射程之内的一条:再跌 101 元,价格即回到自己的均线带之内;其余五条仍在 293.50 至 713.33 元之外(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 分位由顶部退下:20 日收盘分位 89.7%(上期 100.0%),60 日收盘分位 95.8%(上期 100.0%)。20 日区间 23,595–24,370,60 日区间 22,445–24,370。价格不再位于自身区间顶端,而是低于顶端 80 元——正好是一日回吐的宽度。
  • ⚑ 周度口径仍然明确为正:对照 8月28日收盘 23,920,本周收涨 370 元(+1.55%)。五个交易日收盘依次为 24,075、24,110、24,100、24,370、24,290。

⚑ 9月4日夜盘(归属 9月7日交易日)——它在非农数据落地之后开盘,并且收高

  • ⚑ AL2610:开 24,240(低于日盘收盘 50 点),高 24,355,低 24,200,末价 24,320,均价 24,307,成交 52,304 手(较前夜 71,757 手 −27.1%)。
  • ⚑ 时序很重要:美国 8 月非农于北京时间 20:30 发布,夜盘于 21:00 开盘。因此夜盘是在已经知道「非农三倍于预期」之后开出的——它先低开 50 点,随后收在高于日盘收盘 30 点、高于自身均价 13 点的位置。这是本期唯一一条「铝自己消化了宏观冲击」的直接证据(此为解读)。
  • AO2610 夜盘:开 2,749,高 2,768,低 2,746,末价 2,760,均价 2,759,成交 62,442 手(−37.6%)。末价 2,760 高于日盘收盘 3 元,并再次站上全部六条均线。
  • AD2610 夜盘:开 23,465,高 23,590,低 23,465,末价 23,555,均价 23,537,成交 448 手。AD−AL 夜盘价差由前夜的 825 收窄至 765。
  • ⊘ 上述为夜盘实时报价,非结算数据;三个合约的夜盘持仓量本期未取得,将于下一交易日由交易所文件重述。

⊘ 伦铝:本期是一片空白——既无结算,也无库存

  • ⊘ Westmetall 的 9月4日行截至写稿时尚未发布。因此本期不存在新的精确伦敦现货均线,9月3日的一组被显式沿用为最后一组精确值:MA5 3,250.80、MA10 3,229.40、MA20 3,252.60、MA30 3,238.88、MA40 3,220.45、MA60 3,230.01。
  • ⊘ 9月4日唯一取得的伦敦口径为 TradingEconomics 的 3,292.65 美元(−27.00,−0.81%;同一来源另有 3,292.50 的变体)。该口径不是结算价,不与 Westmetall 调和,不用于计算任何均线或分位。
  • ⊘ 条件性推算(仅作参考,建立在一条未调和口径之上):若以 3,292.65 计,则仍高于 9月3日的全部六条均线 40.05 至 72.20 美元,沪伦比价读作 7.3771(对照上期 7.3781),即比价几乎未动。两项均标注为条件性推算。
  • ⊘ 9月4日 LME 库存未取得。因此本简报所载最硬的一条偏多数据——245,975 吨、被路透与 ING 称为 1990 年以来最低——现在是一条滞后一日的印记:它被沿用,而非被确认,连续两日去库的序列在 9月3日之后没有得到验证。
  • ⊘ 9月3日的 0.50 美元 contango 亦无 9月4日的更新。

⚑ 氧化铝:价格腿本期以最强的形式通过,资金腿以最大的幅度未通过

  • AO2610:开 2,738,高 2,779,低 2,728,收 2,757,结算 2,748,前结算 2,707;收盘对收盘 +32(+1.17%),较前结算 +50;成交 219,656 手(+49.0%),持仓 113,727 手(−14,117)。
  • ⚑ 均线(精确计算):MA5 2,714.00、MA10 2,683.60、MA20 2,687.55、MA30 2,683.40、MA40 2,693.53、MA60 2,738.68。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 43.00、73.40、69.45、73.60、63.47、18.32 元。⚑ 这是本轮日盘首次六守其六(上期是夜盘首次)。
  • ⚑ 2,757 为四十七个交易日以来最高收盘——上一次收在 2,757 或以上是 7月1日的 2,805。日内最高 2,779 为三十二个交易日以来最高一笔——上一次触及 2,779 或以上是 7月22日的 2,780(均为推算)。
  • ⚑ 20 日收盘分位 100.0%(上期 98.2%),60 日收盘分位 44.0%(上期 34.2%)。
  • ⚑ 上期记录的一条矛盾在本期被解除:结算价 2,748 高于成本口径一(2,718)30 元。上一交易日是「收盘高于成本 7 元、而结算低于成本 11 元」。现在收盘与结算同时站上成本(收盘高 39 元)。
  • ⊘ 上期检验原文:「若日盘收在 MA60(2,741.38)之上且持仓终止五连降,则背离以多头方式收敛;若收在成本口径一(2,718)之下且持仓第七次下降,则应正式判定为一次被动上涨。」实际:收 2,757,大幅高于 MA60(价格腿以最强形式通过);持仓 −14,117 手,为连续第六次下降,且是 8月28日崩量以来单日最大降幅(资金腿以最大幅度未通过)。连续第三期,同一条检验被劈成两半,而且劈得比前两期更开。
  • ⊘ 持仓自 8月27日的 280,950 手起算:228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511 → 127,844 → 113,727,六个交易日累计 −167,223 手,即 −59.5%。
  • ⚑ 但本期出现了一条决定性的平衡证据:AO2701 持仓 150,947 手(+5,658),已经超过主力合约 AO2610 的 113,727 手。远月首次成为更大的一本账。资金是在迁移,不是在离开(此为推算)。⊘ 与此相对,氧化铝品种合计持仓 447,827 手,减少 10,329 手,因此确有一部分是真实离场。两条并列。
  • 远月:AO2611 收 2,766(持仓 99,231,−3,675)、AO2612 收 2,780(持仓 58,216,+190)、AO2701 收 2,795、AO2702 收 2,807(持仓 17,074,+2,228)。氧化铝品种合计成交 418,622 手。

AD2610:下跌,但仍守住全部六条

  • AD2610 收 23,545(−90,−0.38%),开 23,700,高 23,720,低 23,520,结算 23,600,持仓 5,637(−166)。
  • ⚑ 均线:MA5 23,480.00、MA10 23,305.50、MA20 23,281.25、MA30 23,281.50、MA40 23,200.25、MA60 23,120.08,分别高出 65.00、239.50、263.75、263.50、344.75、424.92 元,连续第五个交易日六守其六。20 日分位 85.8%(上期 98.6%),60 日分位 90.0%(上期 96.0%)。
  • ⊘ AD−AL 日盘价差由 735 走阔至 745;⚑ 夜盘则由 825 收窄至 765。
  • ⊘ AD2611 收 23,620,持仓 16,899 手(+602),已是主力 AD2610 持仓(5,637)的三倍。铸造铝合金的主力事实上已经完成移仓,本简报下一期起将以 AD2611 为主要观察合约(此为解读)。铸造铝合金品种合计成交 12,583 手,合计持仓 23,515 手(+433)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑⚑ 9月4日现货:基差在一个下跌的盘面上翻为升水

  • 上海现货 24,360(+20,区间 24,340–24,380);长江 24,360(+20,区间 24,340–24,380);中原 24,360(+20)。
  • ⊘ 南海(佛山)24,810(−40,区间 24,760–24,860);⊘ 广东南储 24,520(−30,区间 24,490–24,550)。
  • 中铝四地:华东 24,360(+10)、⊘ 华南 24,520(−30)、西南 24,370(持平)、华中 24,210(持平)。
  • ⚑⚑ 基差:现货 24,360 对 AL2610 收盘 24,290 为 **+70 升水,由上期的 −30 贴水翻转,单日摆动 100 点。对前月 AL2609 收盘 24,305 为 +55。这是本简报自 8月13日以来记录到的第一次现货升水。**
  • ⚑⚑ 而且它是在一个下跌的盘面上完成的:现货涨 20,盘面跌 80。现货跑赢一个下跌的盘面,是这一项证据所能呈现的最强形式——它排除了「现货只是被盘面拖着走」的解释(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 但涨跌面并不一致:十条口径中四涨(上海、长江、中原、中铝华东)、三跌(南海、南储、中铝华南)、两平(中铝西南、中铝华中),另有南海口径下的上海 A00 未取得。
  • ⚑⊘ 三条价差全部连续第二日收窄:南海−上海 450(上期 510)、南储−上海 160(上期 210)、中铝华南−华东 160(上期 200)。
  • ⊘ 上期关注清单原文:「观察三条价差是否连续第二日收窄——若是,则华南结构性偏紧应被正式记为已消退。」条件达成,本简报据此正式记为已消退,并注意到本期华南三条口径是绝对值下跌而非仅仅滞涨,消退的程度比该检验所设想的更彻底。

解读:多头的立足点在本期发生了迁移,而不是削弱

  • ⚑ 上期多头拿到的是「白天的盘面 + 伦敦的价格 + 1990 年以来最低的库存 + 整个宏观栏」。本期这四条里有两条被交了回去(盘面与宏观),一条变成滞后印记(伦敦库存),而新拿到的是基差与氧化铝成本底——即从金融栏迁移到了实物栏(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 这一迁移在性质上是更耐久的:基差与成本是逐日结算的实物事实,而加息定价与美元是可以被下一个数据一次性收回的——本期正是这样被收回的。⊘ 但迁移在速度上是更慢的:实物栏的改善不会像宏观栏那样在一天之内推动 270 点的涨幅(此为解读)。

成本与海外实物

  • ⚑ 新增:中国铝业 2026 年半年报显示,上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨,同比下降 14.19%。单一最大生产商产量下降八分之一,是一条成本底的数据,而非需求数据(此为解读)。
  • 长江综合氧化铝:华东 2,730、华南 2,665,均沿用。⊘ SMM 氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价连续第五期需登录,仍载 8月27日(指数 2,676;山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、贵州 2,785、广西 2,660)。
  • ⚑ 需注意:氧化铝期价 2,757 已高于所载的中铝五地报价中的四地(山东 2,730、河南 2,770、山西 2,770、广西 2,660 中的两条),但该组报价为 8月27日的陈旧印记,本简报不据此推断基差(此为解读)。
  • 转载(偏空):日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比 −18% 至 −22%,本期无更新亦无反驳。
  • 转载(偏多):几内亚进口铝土矿现货 72–73 美元/干吨;9 月长协与 8 月持平,推算到岸 73–74 美元/干吨;海运费逼近 40 美元/吨;9 月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨。
  • ⊘ ADC12 四条口径仍不一致:23,900(沿用)、长江现货铝合金 24,000、长江综合华东 23,615、佛山主流 23,500–23,800。A356.2 报 24,400。全部并列,不做调和。转载:再生铝开工率 49.1%;破碎生铝 19,900–20,700;海外 ADC12 3,050–3,190 美元;马来西亚巴生港 FOB 3,090 美元;MJP 现货升水 270 美元/吨。

三 · 库存

⊘ 本期库存栏整体退化:伦敦断更,国内检验第二次落空,而第三条口径出现

  • ⊘ 9月4日 LME 库存未取得。9月3日的 245,975 吨(−250,被路透/ING 称为 1990 年以来最低)被沿用而非确认。
  • ⊘⊘ SMM 周四社会库存印记连续第二期未取得。上期关注清单原文:「若仍不可得,则本简报将连续第二期以两条不吻合的口径承载同一个判断,该判断的可靠性应被下调。」条件成立,该下调在本期被执行:837,000 吨口径自本期起标注为低可信度,不再作为本简报的国内首要口径。
  • ⊘ 与此同时出现了第三条口径:SMM 自身的 8 月末评估称,8月27日主要消费地铝锭库存 852,000 吨,月末约 850,000 吨;较上一个周一减少 8,000 吨,较上一个周四减少 23,000 吨。
  • ⊘ 于是国内社会库存现在有三条互不吻合的口径:SMM 月末口径 852,000 吨(8月27日)、本简报沿用的 837,000 吨、钢联 809,000 吨(8月31日)。极差 43,000 吨。三条并列,不做调和。
  • ⚑ 三条口径的方向仍然一致,且 SMM 给出了量级:7 月去库超过 170,000 吨,8 月全月去库 106,000 吨,自 7 月起累计 278,000 吨,阶段高点为 7 月初的 113 万吨;SMM 预计 9 月上半月去库延续。⊘ 但 SMM 同时称当前水平为「近四年同期高位」。
  • ⊘ 上期所周度库存本期未取得(周五下午发布,写稿时不可得)。沿用:391,498 吨,注册仓单 245,510 吨(−28,691),第三方口径称其为连续第十一周下降、自 6月12日六年高点 528,885 吨累计 −137,387 吨。
  • 沿用(无新印记):保税区 116,000 吨(9月3日,上海 89,000 + 广东 27,000,周环比持平);氧化铝全国库存 727 万吨(9月3日,+8,000 吨);上期所氧化铝周度 323,736 吨(−38,827);全国主流消费地铝棒 140,500 吨(8月31日);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨。

解读

  • ⊘ 本期是本简报近期库存栏最弱的一期,而弱的原因是取数而非事实:伦敦断更一日、国内一级检验连续两期落空、第三条口径出现使极差由 28,000 吨扩大到 43,000 吨。方向证据仍然充分,水平证据不再可靠(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 需要平衡记录的一条:SMM 自身给出的 7 月、8 月去库量级(170,000 与 106,000 吨)是本期唯一一条带时间跨度的国内库存证据,并且它显示去库在减速——8 月的去库量只有 7 月的六成。这一条既支持「去库仍在」,也支持「去库在放缓」,两个方向都应被记录(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⊘ 靠一次讲话转多的宏观栏,被一份数据转了回去

  • ⚑ 美国 8 月非农就业 **162,000 人,对照预期 53,000 人(另有 56,000 的口径)——约为预期的三倍,并且高于彭博调查中的每一个估计值。失业率维持 4.1% 不变。**
  • ⚑ 修正项同样重要:7 月由原报的 −23,000 人重述为 **+21,000 人,6 月上修 11,000 人至 31,000 人。这意味着本轮扩张中唯一一次月度就业净减少从未发生过。**
  • ⚑ 但工资线扣住了缰绳:平均时薪环比 +0.3% 至 37.75 美元,同比仅 +3.1%,为本周期最软的一次读数。
  • ⊘ CME 与利率期货口径(四条,互不吻合,但方向一致向上):9 月加息概率由约 50.5% 升至数据公布后的约 65%,纽约午后回落至约 57%;货币市场口径 61%(前一日 54%);第四条口径为 52%–58%(对照沃勒讲话前的 63%)。四条并列,不做调和。
  • ⚑ 关键的量级解读:一份三倍于预期的就业数据只买到了约 5 至 15 个百分点的定价,而上期一场不含任何数据的讲话买到了超过 20 个百分点的反向定价。工资线是解释这一不对称的那个变量(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 美元指数上涨 0.13% 至 99.13(另有 99.27 的口径),重新站上 99。本简报上期把跌破 99 记为「决定性的下破,而不是停滞」——该下破实际只维持了一个交易日。
  • ⊘ 黄金下跌,三条口径:现货金 −2.2% 至 4,376.04 美元;纽约期金口径 4,384.91 美元(−1.98%);第三条口径 4,476.60 美元(−63.30,−1.39%)。三条并列,不做调和,方向一致向下。
  • ⊘ 美股交回了 8月4日以来的最佳单日:道指 53,413(−272.51,−0.51%),标普 500 7,718(−29.35,−0.38%),纳指 26,506(−77.07,−0.29%)。
  • ⊘ 美债呈熊平:两年期 4.37%–4.41%(两条口径,上期 4.322%),十年期 4.78%–4.79%(上期 4.761%),三十年期约 5.23% 基本持平。短端承担了全部调整。
  • ⊘ 原油口径分歧:一条称 WTI 91.48 美元(+0.2%)、布伦特 96.28 美元(+0.8%);另一条称 WTI 跌破 90 美元。两条并列,不做调和。
  • ⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第八期未取得,联储路径中段仍是盲区。

解读:宏观栏由「偏多」回到「中性偏空」,而它只偏多了一期

  • ⊘ 上期是本简报本轮第一次把宏观栏记为偏多,依据是沃勒讲话、加息定价塌至 50.5%、美元跌破 99、日元走强、两端收益率回落与美股大涨六条同向。本期这六条里有五条被不同程度地交回:定价回升、美元收复 99、短端收益率上行、美股回吐、黄金下跌。
  • ⚑ 唯一没有被交回的是工资线,而它是六条里唯一与「加息的理由」直接相关的一条(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 本简报因此把宏观栏由「偏多」下调为「中性偏空」,并明确记录:上期的偏多定性建立在一位理事的讲话之上而非数据,本简报当期已就此写下制约;该制约在二十四小时内被证实(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 但必须与铝自身的表现并列记录:非农于北京时间 20:30 发布,沪铝夜盘 21:00 开盘,低开 50 点后收在高于日盘收盘 30 点处。铝在已知宏观利空的情况下没有跟随下跌(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 海外与成本端:本期新增一条,方向偏多

  • ⚑ 新增:中国铝业上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨,同比 −14.19%。
  • ⊘ 需与之并列的一条:中国氧化铝建成产能 12,095 万吨/年、运行 9,590 万吨/年,闲置约 2,505 万吨/年,开工率约 79.3%;8 月产量预计突破 800 万吨(均为沿用)。闲置产能的规模远大于远期账本上被削减的合计规模。
  • 转载(远期供给账本,本期无更新):俄铝拟封存 210 万吨氧化铝产能及 SUBR 铝土矿(仍为提议);几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年(−25%);力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 因天然气一度降至 50%、后经临时码头协议恢复;卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能;Alba 一至三号系列停产(占 19%);EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 回填至 25%。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝价格本期在两条腿上同时确认成本:收盘 2,757 高于成本口径一 39 元,结算 2,748 高出 30 元;成本口径二 2,826.21 仍高出收盘 69.21 元(上期为 101.21 元),差距在收窄。

国内供给与需求

  • 转载:中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;《工业绿色低碳发展「十五五」规划》对电解铝产能天花板的具体处理仍未见细节。
  • 转载:RatingDog 8 月制造业 PMI 51.5(六个月新高);国家统计局 8 月 49.8;铝加工行业 8 月综合 PMI 48.7%。
  • 转载:周度开工率(截至 8月27日)——型材 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。本期无更新。
  • ⚑ 本期最有力的需求证据仍然是价格性的,而不是数量性的,但它比上期强了一档:上期是「九条现货全涨但落后盘面 10 元」,本期是「盘面跌 80 而华东现货涨 20,基差翻为 +70 升水」。前者可以被解释为跟涨,后者不能(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 与之相反的一条:华南三条口径绝对值下跌,南海 −40。华东与华南在本期是背离的,而不是同向的(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 转载(需求端时点):SMM 提到部分下游企业于中秋节前有备货行为,并将其列为佛山与巩义去库的原因之一。
  • 转载(政策/贸易):加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名——该日期在下周一之后的第一个交易日,应列入观察。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

9月4日成交与情绪

  • 华东:上海现货 24,360(+20),基差 +70 升水。在盘面下跌 80 元的同时,持货商报价上调 20 元且成交得以维持,说明现货端并未跟随盘面下行(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 华南:南海(佛山)24,810(−40),南储 24,520(−30),中铝华南 24,520(−30)——三条口径绝对值下跌。南海−上海价差收窄至 450,南储−上海收窄至 160。
  • 华中:中铝华中 24,210(持平),连续第二个交易日站在 24,000 之上;西南 24,370(持平)。
  • 出货意愿:华东由偏弱转为偏强(惜售增强)——在盘面下跌的一天里逆势上调报价,是典型的惜售行为;⊘ 华南则相反,报价下调 30 至 40 元,出货意愿偏强而挺价意愿偏弱。两区背离(此为解读)。
  • 采购意愿:华东由中性转为偏强——基差由 −30 走到 +70,意味着下游愿意在高于盘面的价格上接货,这是本简报近期记录到的最强的一次采购意愿信号(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ SMM 的出货/采购情绪指数未取得;上述判断依据价格、涨跌幅、基差与价差行为推断,非 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑⚑ 基差由 −30 贴水翻为 +70 升水,单日摆动 100 点,为 8月13日以来第一次现货升水。
  • ⚑⚑ 而且它是在盘面下跌 80 元的一天里完成的:现货涨 20、盘面跌 80。现货跑赢下跌的盘面,排除了「被盘面拖着走」的解释。
  • ⚑ 上期关注清单要求「基差回到 −20 以内」方可恢复「下游在更高价位接货」的判断;实际回到 +70,远超该检验所设条件,判断以更强的证据恢复。
  • ⚑ 夜盘在非农数据落地后开盘:低开 50 点,收在高于日盘收盘 30 点、高于自身均价 13 点处。铝自己消化了宏观利空。
  • ⚑ 收盘仍高于全部六条均线(101.00 至 713.33 元),连续第五个交易日站上全带。
  • ⚑ 六条均线全部仍在上行,MA60 连续第二个交易日上行(+1.75)。
  • ⚑ 周度收涨 370 元(+1.55%),对照 8月28日的 23,920。
  • ⚑ 结算价 24,375 较前结算上涨 100 元;以结算价计本交易日是上涨的。
  • ⚑ 主力持仓减少 2,092 手,但 AL2611 增仓 7,757 手、品种合计增仓 2,553 手——是移仓而非离场。
  • ⚑ 收盘 24,290 仍高于上期两分支检验的空头触发位 24,275,空头分支未被触发。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝收 2,757,本轮日盘首次站上全部六条均线;为四十七个交易日以来最高收盘。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝日内最高 2,779,为三十二个交易日以来最高一笔。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝结算价 2,748 高于成本口径一 30 元;上期「收盘在成本之上而结算在成本之下」的矛盾被解除,两条腿同时站上成本。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝 20 日收盘分位升至 100.0%,60 日由 34.2% 升至 44.0%。
  • ⚑ AO2701 持仓 150,947 手(+5,658),已超过主力 AO2610 的 113,727 手——资金在向远月迁移,远月首次成为更大的一本账。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝夜盘末价 2,760,再次站上全部六条均线。
  • ⚑ 成本口径二与氧化铝收盘的差距由 101.21 元收窄至 69.21 元。
  • ⚑ 新增:中国铝业上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨,同比 −14.19%。
  • ⚑ 美国 8 月平均时薪同比仅 +3.1%,为本周期最软读数——加息理由中唯一直接相关的变量仍在扣住缰绳。
  • ⚑ 三倍于预期的非农只买到约 5 至 15 个百分点的加息定价,不对称性本身偏鸽。
  • ⚑ 三条国内社会库存口径方向一致向下;SMM 给出 7 月去库超 170,000 吨、8 月 106,000 吨、自 7 月累计 278,000 吨,并预计 9 月上半月去库延续。
  • ⚑ SMM 提到中秋节前部分下游备货,并列为佛山与巩义去库原因之一。
  • ⚑ 沿用:LME 库存 245,975 吨(9月3日),被路透/ING 称为 1990 年以来最低。
  • ⚑ 沿用:上期所周度 391,498 吨被第三方口径称为连续第十一周下降,自六年高点累计 −137,387 吨。
  • ⚑ 沿用:保税区 116,000 吨周环比持平,外部资源未回流。
  • ⚑ 沿用:远期氧化铝与铝土矿账本仍在多处被削减或封顶(俄铝、几内亚、Yarwun、美铝、卡塔尔铝业约 60%、Alba −19%)。
  • ⚑ 沿用:几内亚铝土矿 72–73 美元/干吨、9 月长协持平、海运费近 40 美元,矿石成本底仍在抬升。
  • ⚑ 中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性。
  • ⚑ AD2610 虽跌 90 元,仍连续第五个交易日高于自身全部六条均线;AD−AL 夜盘价差由 825 收窄至 765。
  • ⚑ 条件性推算:若以 TradingEconomics 的 3,292.65 美元计,伦铝仍高于 9月3日的全部六条均线 40.05 至 72.20 美元(建立在未调和口径之上)。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘⊘ 收盘 24,290 正好落回 8月12日的收盘价,即前一交易日刚被上穿 80 元的二十日收盘顶部。整段清关在一个交易日内被完整交回。
  • ⊘ 全日自最高 24,510 回落 220 元收盘,自高至低 240 元;交回前一日 270 元涨幅中的 80 元。
  • ⊘ 24,490 与 24,510 未能在日盘被守住,该对价位由「已被穿过」改记为「已被确认为压力」。
  • ⊘ 上期两分支检验落进空档,记为「不确定」——上期的增仓上行既未被确认为趋势,也未被证伪。
  • ⊘ 成交 151,835 手,较前一日的六十日纪录下降 33.9%,承接量能未能延续。
  • ⊘ MA5 守住幅度由 255.00 元塌至 101.00 元,快线已进入射程。
  • ⊘ 20 日与 60 日收盘分位由 100.0%/100.0% 退至 89.7%/95.8%。
  • ⊘ 主力持仓减少 2,092 手(移仓解释成立,但主力账本本身在收缩)。
  • ⊘ 美国 8 月非农 162,000 人,三倍于预期,并高于彭博调查中每一个估计值;7 月由 −23,000 重述为 +21,000,6 月上修至 31,000——本轮扩张唯一一次月度就业净减少从未发生。
  • ⊘ 9 月加息概率由约 50.5% 回升至约 65%、收于约 57%(四条口径,方向一致向上)。
  • ⊘ 美元指数收复 99,报 99.13(另有 99.27 口径);本简报上期记为「决定性下破」的走势只维持了一个交易日。
  • ⊘ 黄金三条口径同步下跌(−1.39% 至 −2.2%);美股交回 8月4日以来最佳单日;两年期收益率上行至 4.37%–4.41%。
  • ⊘ 宏观栏由「偏多」下调为「中性偏空」,偏多定性只维持了一期。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝持仓 −14,117 手,连续第六次下降,且为 8月28日以来单日最大降幅;自 8月27日累计 −167,223 手(−59.5%)。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝品种合计持仓 −10,329 手,因此除迁移外确有真实离场。
  • ⊘ 华南三条现货口径绝对值下跌(南海 −40、南储 −30、中铝华南 −30),华东与华南背离。
  • ⊘ 三条华南价差连续第二日收窄,华南结构性偏紧正式记为已消退。
  • ⊘ 十条现货口径中只有四条上涨,三条下跌,两条持平。
  • ⊘ Westmetall 9月4日结算行未发布,本期无新的精确伦敦均线;LME 库存亦未取得,245,975 吨成为滞后一日的沿用印记而非确认印记。
  • ⊘ 唯一取得的伦敦口径 3,292.65 美元(−0.81%)方向向下,且与结算口径不可调和。
  • ⊘ SMM 周四社会库存印记连续第二期未取得,837,000 吨口径按上期承诺被下调为低可信度。
  • ⊘ 国内社会库存现有三条互不吻合的口径(852,000 / 837,000 / 809,000),极差由 28,000 吨扩大至 43,000 吨。
  • ⊘ SMM 自身数据显示去库在减速:8 月去库 106,000 吨,仅为 7 月 170,000 吨的约六成;并称当前水平为「近四年同期高位」。
  • ⊘ 上期所周度库存本期未取得(写稿时未发布)。
  • ⊘ 中国氧化铝闲置产能约 2,505 万吨/年,8 月产量预计突破 800 万吨,规模远大于远期账本削减合计。
  • ⊘ AD−AL 日盘价差由 735 走阔至 745;AD2611 持仓已是 AD2610 的三倍,主力事实上完成移仓。
  • ⊘ 日本四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%)仍为账上最硬的偏空实物数据,本期无更新亦无反驳。
  • ⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第八期未取得;中铝五地氧化铝报价连续第五期无法检验。
  • ⊘ 加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名。

八 · 一句话观点

市场用一个交易日,分毫不差地走回了它前一日刚刚清掉的那个价位:AL2610 的交易日开在 24,475、打到 24,510——6月5日以来最高一笔——收在 24,290,而 24,290 正是 8月12日的收盘价、正是上期称作「二十日收盘区间顶部」并在 9月3日被上穿 80 元的那个数字,不是接近,是正好收在上面;这里必须立刻附上一条口径说明,因为它改变读法——上期所的「9月4日交易日」在构造上包含 9月3日夜盘,因此开盘 24,475 与最高 24,510 是上期已经公布过的那一夜的印记,9月4日的白天部分是从夜盘末价 24,390 一路走低至 24,290,全程未创新高;上期写下的两分支检验则落进了两个分支之间的空档——「收在 24,390 之上且持仓增加」低了 100 元,「收在 24,275 之下且持仓下降」高了 15 元,而持仓一项本身也是分裂的,主力减仓 2,092 手但 AL2611 增仓 7,757 手、品种合计增仓 2,553 手,因此主力的减仓是移仓而非离场,与本简报 9月2日在相反方向上使用的是同一条标准,该检验据此记为「不确定」,本简报不会为盘面没有给出的答案制造结论;被干净且否定地回答的是另一个问题——24,490 与 24,510 没有在日盘被守住,盘面自高点下跌 240 元,这一对价位由「已被穿过」正式改记为「已被确认为压力」;宏观栏则被一份数据整体转了回去:8 月非农 162,000 人对预期 53,000 人,约为三倍并高于彭博调查中的每一个估计值,失业率维持 4.1%,7 月由 −23,000 重述为 +21,000、6 月上修至 31,000,意味着本轮扩张唯一一次月度就业净减少从未发生,9 月加息概率由约 50.5% 回到约 65% 再收于约 57%,美元收复 99 至 99.13,黄金在三条口径上同步下跌,美股交回了 8月4日以来的最佳单日,因此本简报上期第一次记为「偏多」的宏观栏,在只维持了一期之后被下调回「中性偏空」,唯一没有被交回的是平均时薪同比仅 +3.1% 这条本周期最软的工资读数,而它恰恰是六条里唯一与加息理由直接相关的一条,这也解释了为什么一份三倍于预期的数据只买到约 5 至 15 个百分点的定价,而上期一场不含任何数据的讲话买到了超过 20 个百分点;而与这一切相对的,是两条真正属于实物的栏目走向了相反方向并且走得很硬:基差由 −30 贴水翻为 +70 升水,单日摆动 100 点,为 8月13日以来第一次现货升水,并且它是在盘面下跌 80 元的一天里由现货上涨 20 元完成的——现货跑赢一个下跌的盘面,排除了「被盘面拖着走」的解释,这是该项证据所能呈现的最强形式,也远远超出了上期关注清单仅仅要求的「基差回到 −20 以内」;氧化铝在自己的账本上做了同一件事,AO2610 收 2,757,为四十七个交易日以来最高收盘,本轮日盘首次站上全部六条均线,日内最高 2,779 为三十二个交易日以来最高一笔,而上期被点名的那条矛盾也被解除——结算价 2,748 已高于成本口径一 30 元,上一交易日还是「收盘高于成本 7 元而结算低于成本 11 元」;它的对价与前两期同质而更大,持仓 −14,117 手为连续第六次下降、且是 8月28日以来单日最大降幅,自 8月27日累计 −167,223 手即 −59.5%,但本期出现了决定性的平衡证据:AO2701 持仓 150,947 手已超过主力的 113,727 手,远月首次成为更大的一本账,资金是在迁移而不是离开——尽管品种合计减少 10,329 手说明确有一部分是真实离场;三条线走弱:华南三条现货口径绝对值下跌、三条华南价差连续第二日收窄,因而华南结构性偏紧按上期设定的条件被正式记为已消退;伦敦本期是一片空白,Westmetall 的 9月4日结算行截至写稿时未发布,本期不存在新的精确伦敦均线,9月3日的一组被显式沿用为最后一组精确值,唯一取得的 9月4日口径是 TradingEconomics 的 3,292.65 美元(−0.81%),不做调和亦不用于任何计算,因此本简报所载最硬的一条偏多数据——245,975 吨、1990 年以来最低——现在是一条滞后一日的沿用印记而非确认印记;而 SMM 周四社会库存印记连续第二期未取得,这触发了上期关注清单写下的明确承诺,本期予以执行:该判断的可靠性被下调,837,000 吨自本期起标注为低可信度并不再作为国内首要口径,同时第三条口径出现——SMM 自身的月末评估称 8月27日为 852,000 吨、月末约 850,000 吨,对照钢联的 809,000 吨,三条口径极差由 28,000 吨扩大至 43,000 吨,三者方向仍然一致,但 SMM 自己的数据同时显示去库在减速,8 月的 106,000 吨只有 7 月 170,000 吨的约六成;因此本期的结论是:多头交回了只持有了一期的宏观栏、交回了 24,490–24,510 这一带、也交回了华南,而新拿到的是翻为升水的基差、在收盘与结算两条腿上同时站稳的氧化铝成本底、一条同比下降 14.19% 的中国铝业半年产量,以及一个在非农落地后低开 50 点却收高 30 点的夜盘——多头的立足点在本期不是被削弱,而是发生了迁移:从可以被下一个数据一次性收回的金融栏,迁移到逐日结算的实物栏,这在性质上更耐久,在速度上更慢(此为解读)。

九 · 周一(9月7日)重开关注清单

  • ⚑ 24,290 这个数字本身就是周一的第一道判别,而它的两侧各有一个已知刻度:24,320 与 24,189.00。 9月4日的收盘正好落在 8月12日的收盘价上,而 9月4日夜盘的末价 24,320 已经把它抬高了 30 元,因此周一是从 24,320 而不是从 24,290 开始的。若日盘能站稳在 24,290 之上并收在夜盘末价 24,320 以上,则本次回踩应被归类为对已清关位置的确认性回踩;若跌破 24,290 并进一步失守 MA5(24,189.00,守住幅度已由 255.00 塌至 101.00),则价格回到自己的均线带之内,而本轮自 8月3日起的上行结构将首次需要被重新评估。
  • ⚑ 上期未落定的两分支检验在周一仍然有效,判别位是 24,390 与 24,275,并且这一次持仓口径必须看品种合计而不只看主力。 上期的检验落进了空档,而落进空档的原因之一是主力减仓被 AL2611 的增仓抵消。周一若收在 24,390 之上且品种合计持仓继续增加,则 9月3日的增仓上行被追认为趋势;若收在 24,275 之下且品种合计转为下降,则 24,510 正式成为本轮头部标记。本简报下期将以品种合计为持仓的第一口径。
  • ⚑ 伦敦要一次补齐两天:Westmetall 的 9月4日结算行,以及 9月4日与 9月7日的库存。 本期伦敦是空白,因此三件事同时待检:9月4日现货结算是否落在 TradingEconomics 的 3,292.65 美元附近(若是,则伦铝仍高于全部六条均线,六守其六延续);0.50 美元的 contango 是走阔还是重回 backwardation;以及 245,975 吨之后是否继续去库——若 9月4日与 9月7日连续减少,则「1990 年以来最低」由一条静态描述变为一条动态序列,这是本简报目前所载最重要的中期变量。
  • ⚑⚑ 基差能否守住升水,是本期最强证据能否成立的唯一检验。 基差由 −30 翻为 +70 是本期唯一一条以最强形式出现的证据,但它只有一个交易日。周一若现货维持在盘面之上(基差 ≥ 0),则「下游在更高价位接货」由单日事件升级为序列,实物栏的定性可以被正式上调;若基差在一个交易日内退回 −20 以外,则本期的升水应被重新归类为周五盘面下跌造成的一次被动错位,而非采购意愿的真实改善。同时观察华南三条口径能否止跌——南海 24,810、南储 24,520、中铝华南 24,520。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:价格已在成本之上、日盘已六守其六,唯一没有跟上的仍然是持仓,判别位是 2,738.68 与 2,718。 周一若收在 MA60(2,738.68)之上且持仓终止六连降,则连续三期被劈成两半的那条检验终于以多头方式收敛;若跌回成本口径一(2,718)之下且持仓第七次下降,则应正式判定为一次由铝价与成本叙事带动、缺乏自身资金支撑的上涨。同时留意 AO2701 与 AO2610 的持仓关系是否延续——远月已首次成为更大的一本账,若该关系巩固,则「迁移而非离场」的读法得到第二次确认。
  • ⚑ 三条国内库存口径能否收敛,以及上期所周度与 SMM 周四印记是否恢复发布。 本期三条口径极差已达 43,000 吨(852,000 / 837,000 / 809,000),而本简报已按承诺把 837,000 吨下调为低可信度。周一若 SMM 印记恢复,则三条口径的差额可被解释,该判断的可信度可以被恢复;若连续第三期不可得,则本简报将改以钢联口径为国内首要口径并明确说明该切换。同时,上期所周度库存(上一印记 391,498 吨、第三方称第十一周)应在周内补发,是否延续至第十二周是国内去库时间跨度的直接证据。
  • ⚑ 宏观:下周的美国通胀数据,以及 9月15—16 日议息会议前的定价路径;另需注意 9月8日加拿大关税生效。 非农已把 9 月加息定价推回约 57%,而工资线是唯一扣住缰绳的变量,因此下一份通胀数据的权重高于本次非农。若通胀超预期,则定价可越过 65% 并推动美元继续上行,铝在 89.7% 分位上的位置缓冲有限;若通胀降温,则本期的宏观回撤可能只是一次噪音。同时留意 10 月联邦基金利率条是否终于可取得——已连续第八期缺失;以及 9月8日加拿大钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%、铝棒被点名的实际影响。

免责声明

  • 本简报仅供内部晨会参考,所载数据来源于上海期货交易所公开日度文件、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、路透、CNBC、彭博、SMM、钢联、世铝网及公开企业公告等公开渠道。标注「⚑ / ⊘」的为事实性数据,标注「此为解读 / 此为推算」的为本简报的判断或计算,两者已在正文中明确区分。多来源口径不一致者一律并列载入,不作调和。本简报不构成任何投资建议,不对据此作出的任何决策承担责任。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and caliber

  • Written the morning of Saturday, September 5, after the September 4 night session closed at 01:00 Beijing. Both Chinese boards are shut until the Monday September 7 day session; London is shut until Monday.
  • ⚑ CRITICAL CALIBER NOTE — the most important methodological statement in this edition: the exchange’s “September 4 trading day” by construction CONTAINS the September 3 night session. The open of 24,475 and the high of 24,510 in the exchange file are therefore that night’s prints, already published in the prior edition, NOT daylight highs. The daylight portion of September 4 traded DOWN from the night’s last of 24,390 to 24,290 and made no new high at any point (derivation). Every comparison below distinguishes the two explicitly.
  • ⚑ Method: SHFE averages are computed exactly from the exchange’s published AL2610 / AO2610 / AD2610 close series. Before any September 4 value was computed, all three series were used to re-derive the prior edition — all EIGHTEEN September 3 averages (AL 24,115.00 / 23,938.50 / 23,969.25 / 23,824.67 / 23,663.75 / 23,574.92; AO 2,692.20 / 2,677.70 / 2,684.60 / 2,682.67 / 2,692.95 / 2,741.38; AD 23,414.00 / 23,257.00 / 23,281.50 / 23,263.17 / 23,185.38 / 23,114.50) and all SIX percentiles (100.0%/100.0%, 98.2%/34.2%, 98.6%/96.0%) reproduce the published figures exactly.
  • ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: Westmetall’s September 4 LME cash and 3-month settlement row, unpublished as of writing — so NO new exact London average can be computed this edition; the September 3 set is carried explicitly as the last exact one, with a TradingEconomics intraday caliber listed beside it, unreconciled and used for nothing; the September 4 LME stock figure; SHFE daily warrant tonnages and the weekly warehouse print; SMM’s absolute A00, its regional premia, its alumina index and Chalco’s five regional alumina listings (login-walled — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a FIFTH consecutive edition rather than failed); ⚑⊘ the SMM Thursday social-inventory print, absent for a SECOND consecutive edition, which triggers a commitment the prior watchlist made and which is executed below; night-session open interest for all three contracts; the Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao spot calibers; and the October fed funds strip, absent for an EIGHTH consecutive edition.

⚑⊘ SHFE: the close landed on the exact number it had cleared the session before

  • AL2610 (main contract): open 24,475, high 24,510, low 24,270, close 24,290, settlement 24,375, prior settlement 24,275. Close-to-close −80 (−0.33%); against the prior settlement +15. Volume 151,835 (−33.9%); OI 254,755 (−2,092).
  • ⚑⊘ The hardest fact in the edition is a level fact: 24,290 IS the August 12 close, and it IS the twenty-session close top that the prior edition named and that September 3 cleared by 80. The market walked the whole thing back in one session — and not to somewhere near it, but ONTO it.
  • ⊘ The session fell 220 from its high of 24,510 to the close and 240 from the high to the low of 24,270, giving back 80 of the prior day’s 270.
  • ⊘ Volume of 151,835 is 33.9% below the sixty-session record of 229,600 set the day before. The follow-through did not come.
  • ⚑ The settlement of 24,375 is 85 ABOVE the close and 100 above the prior settlement. On a settlement basis this trading day was UP; on a close basis it was down. Both are listed (derivation).
  • Front-month AL2609 closed 24,305 (settlement 24,340, OI 30,035, −5,015); AL2611 24,280 (settlement 24,365, OI 173,887, +7,757); AL2612 24,235 (OI 69,910, +369); AL2701 24,180 (OI 43,937, −35). Complex volume 244,604; complex OI 617,604 (+2,553).

Interpretation: the prior test landed in the gap between its own branches

  • ⊘ The test had two branches: “a day close above the night’s last of 24,390 with open interest still rising reclassifies the night give-back as high-level turnover rather than rejection”; and “a fill back below 24,275 (the September 3 settlement) with open interest turning down reclassifies the September 3 advance as a single macro-driven pulse and makes 24,510 the top of this run.”
  • ⊘ Actual: the close of 24,290 is 100 BELOW the first branch and 15 ABOVE the second. NEITHER fired.
  • ⚑ And the positioning half split as well: the main contract shed 2,092 lots but AL2611 added 7,757, AL2612 added 369 and the complex added 2,553, while AL2609’s loss of 5,015 is the ordinary outflow of a contract approaching delivery. The main-contract decline is therefore a ROLL, not liquidation — the identical standard this brief applied in the opposite direction on September 2 (derivation).
  • ⊘ The test is recorded as INDETERMINATE: not passed, not failed. This brief will not manufacture a verdict the tape did not give (interpretation).
  • ⚑ But the other question WAS answered, cleanly and negatively: the prior watchlist asked whether 24,490 and 24,510 could be held in daylight. They could not — the tape fell 240 from 24,510 and closed 220 below it. The pair is formally reclassified from “cleared” to “confirmed resistance” (interpretation).

⚑ Moving averages: all six held, and all six are still rising

  • ⚑ Moving averages (exact): MA5 24,189.00, MA10 23,996.50, MA20 23,981.75, MA30 23,859.50, MA40 23,693.38, MA60 23,576.67. The close is above ALL SIX by 101.00, 293.50, 308.25, 430.50, 596.62 and 713.33 — a FIFTH consecutive session above the whole band.
  • ⚑ The averages themselves: MA5 +74.00, MA10 +58.00, MA20 +12.50, MA30 +34.83, MA40 +29.63, MA60 +1.75. All six rising together; MA60 up for a SECOND consecutive session.
  • ⊘ But the MA5 clearance collapsed from 255.00 to 101.00. The fast average is now the only one within reach: another 101 down puts price back inside its own band. The other five sit 293.50 to 713.33 away (derivation).
  • ⊘ Both close percentiles came off the top: the 20-session reads 89.7% (from 100.0%) and the 60-session 95.8% (from 100.0%). Ranges 23,595–24,370 and 22,445–24,370. Price is no longer at the top of its own range — it is 80 below it, exactly one day’s give-back.
  • ⚑ The WEEK remains decisively positive: against August 28’s 23,920 the week closed +370 (+1.55%). The five closes read 24,075, 24,110, 24,100, 24,370, 24,290.

⚑ The September 4 night session (trading day September 7) — it opened AFTER payrolls and closed higher

  • ⚑ AL2610: open 24,240 — 50 BELOW the day close — low 24,200, high 24,355, last 24,320, VWAP 24,307, volume 52,304 (−27.1% on the prior night’s 71,757).
  • ⚑ The sequence matters: US August payrolls released at 20:30 Beijing; the night session opened at 21:00. The night therefore opened KNOWING that payrolls had tripled the consensus. It gapped down 50, then finished 30 above the day close and 13 above its own VWAP. This is the edition’s only direct evidence that aluminium absorbed the macro shock on its own (interpretation).
  • AO2610 night: open 2,749, high 2,768, low 2,746, last 2,760, VWAP 2,759, volume 62,442 (−37.6%). The last of 2,760 is 3 above the day close and again above all six averages.
  • AD2610 night: open 23,465, high 23,590, low 23,465, last 23,555, VWAP 23,537, volume 448. The AD−AL night spread narrowed from 825 to 765.
  • ⊘ These are live night quotes, not settlements; night open interest for all three contracts was not retrievable this edition and will be restated by the exchange file on the next trading day.

⊘ London is a blank this edition — no settlement, no stock figure

  • ⊘ Westmetall’s September 4 row had not published as of writing. There is therefore NO new exact London cash average this edition. The September 3 set is carried explicitly as the last exact one: MA5 $3,250.80, MA10 $3,229.40, MA20 $3,252.60, MA30 $3,238.88, MA40 $3,220.45, MA60 $3,230.01.
  • ⊘ The only September 4 London caliber retrieved is TradingEconomics’ $3,292.65 (−$27.00, −0.81%; a $3,292.50 variant of the same caliber also appears). It is NOT a settlement, is NOT reconciled with Westmetall, and is used to compute NOTHING.
  • ⊘ Conditional derivation (reference only, resting on an unreconciled caliber): at $3,292.65 London would still sit above all six September 3 averages by $40.05 to $72.20, and the ratio would read 7.3771 against 7.3781 — essentially unchanged. Both figures are flagged as conditional derivations.
  • ⊘ The September 4 LME stock figure was not retrievable. The hardest bullish number this brief carries — 245,975 mt, described by Reuters and ING as the lowest since 1990 — is therefore a print that is now A DAY STALE: carried, not confirmed, with the two-session draw streak unverified beyond September 3.
  • ⊘ The $0.50 contango of September 3 likewise has no September 4 update.

⚑ Alumina: the price leg passed in its strongest form yet, the positioning leg failed by its largest margin yet

  • AO2610: open 2,738, high 2,779, low 2,728, close 2,757, settlement 2,748, prior settlement 2,707. Close-to-close +32 (+1.17%); against the prior settlement +50. Volume 219,656 (+49.0%); OI 113,727 (−14,117).
  • ⚑ Moving averages (exact): MA5 2,714.00, MA10 2,683.60, MA20 2,687.55, MA30 2,683.40, MA40 2,693.53, MA60 2,738.68. The close is above ALL SIX by 43.00, 73.40, 69.45, 73.60, 63.47 and 18.32. ⚑ This is the first six-of-six in a DAY session of this run (the prior edition’s was a night).
  • ⚑ 2,757 is the highest close in FORTY-SEVEN sessions — the last close at or above it was July 1’s 2,805. The day high of 2,779 is the highest print in THIRTY-TWO sessions — the last at or above it was July 22’s 2,780 (both derivations).
  • ⚑ The 20-session close percentile reads 100.0% (from 98.2%) and the 60-session 44.0% (from 34.2%).
  • ⚑ A contradiction this brief flagged one edition ago is resolved: the settlement of 2,748 is THIRTY above cost caliber one (2,718). One session ago the close was 7 above cost while the settlement was 11 BELOW it. Close AND settlement now clear cost together, the close by 39.
  • ⊘ The prior test read: “a close above MA60 (2,741.38) that ENDS the five-session open-interest decline converges the divergence bullishly; a close below cost caliber one (2,718) with a seventh decline is a passive, unfunded advance.” Actual: 2,757, far above MA60 — the price leg passed in its strongest form — while open interest fell 14,117, a SIXTH consecutive decline and the largest single-session fall since the August 28 collapse. A THIRD consecutive edition has split this test in half, and split it wider than the prior two.
  • ⊘ From August 27’s 280,950 the sequence reads 228,594 → 154,170 → 144,292 → 135,511 → 127,844 → 113,727: six sessions, −167,223 lots, −59.5% of the book.
  • ⚑ But a decisive balancing fact arrived: AO2701’s open interest of 150,947 (+5,658) now EXCEEDS the main contract’s 113,727. The far month is the larger book for the first time. The money is MIGRATING, not leaving (derivation). ⊘ Against that, complex OI of 447,827 is down 10,329, so some genuine departure is also present. Both are listed.
  • Far months: AO2611 2,766 (OI 99,231, −3,675), AO2612 2,780 (OI 58,216, +190), AO2701 2,795, AO2702 2,807 (OI 17,074, +2,228). Complex volume 418,622.

AD2610: it fell, and still held all six

  • AD2610 closed 23,545 (−90, −0.38%): open 23,700, high 23,720, low 23,520, settlement 23,600, OI 5,637 (−166).
  • ⚑ Moving averages: MA5 23,480.00, MA10 23,305.50, MA20 23,281.25, MA30 23,281.50, MA40 23,200.25, MA60 23,120.08 — above all six by 65.00, 239.50, 263.75, 263.50, 344.75 and 424.92, a FIFTH consecutive session. 20-session percentile 85.8% (from 98.6%), 60-session 90.0% (from 96.0%).
  • ⊘ The AD−AL spread widened 735 → 745 on the day; ⚑ the night narrowed it from 825 to 765.
  • ⊘ AD2611 closed 23,620 with open interest of 16,899 (+602) — TRIPLE the front contract’s 5,637. Cast alloy has effectively completed its roll, and this brief will treat AD2611 as the primary contract from the next edition (interpretation). Complex volume 12,583; complex OI 23,515 (+433).

⚑⚑ September 4 spot: the basis flipped to a premium on a falling board

  • Shanghai spot 24,360 (+20, range 24,340–24,380); Changjiang 24,360 (+20, range 24,340–24,380); Zhongyuan 24,360 (+20).
  • ⊘ Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40, range 24,760–24,860); ⊘ Guangdong Nanchu 24,520 (−30, range 24,490–24,550).
  • Chalco: East China 24,360 (+10), ⊘ South China 24,520 (−30), Southwest 24,370 (unchanged), Central China 24,210 (unchanged).
  • ⚑⚑ BASIS: spot 24,360 against AL2610’s 24,290 is a **+70 PREMIUM, flipped from the prior −30 discount — a hundred-point swing in one session, and the first spot premium this brief has recorded since August 13. Against front-month AL2609’s 24,305 it is +55.**
  • ⚑⚑ And it was done on a FALLING board: spot up 20, board down 80. Spot outperforming a falling board is the strongest form this evidence can take, because it eliminates the “spot is merely being dragged along by the board” explanation (interpretation).
  • ⊘ But the breadth is mixed: of ten calibers, four rose (Shanghai, Changjiang, Zhongyuan, Chalco East), three fell (Nanhai, Nanchu, Chalco South) and two were unchanged (Chalco Southwest, Chalco Central); the Nanhai Shanghai A00 caliber was not retrieved.
  • ⚑⊘ All three spreads narrowed for a SECOND consecutive session: Nanhai−Shanghai 450 (from 510), Nanchu−Shanghai 160 (from 210), Chalco South−East 160 (from 200).
  • ⊘ The prior watchlist read: “watch whether the three spreads narrow for a second consecutive day — if so, South China’s structural tightness should be formally recorded as faded.” The condition is met and it is FORMALLY RECORDED AS FADED, with the note that this session’s South China calibers fell in absolute terms rather than merely lagging, so the fade is more complete than the test envisaged.

Interpretation: the bull case MIGRATED this session; it did not weaken

  • ⚑ One edition ago the bulls held the daylight board, the London price level, a stock number called the lowest since 1990, and the entire macro column. Two of those four were handed back this session (the board and the macro), one became a stale carry (the London stock print), and what was gained instead is the basis and the alumina cost floor — a move from the FINANCIAL column to the PHYSICAL column (interpretation).
  • ⚑ That migration is more durable in kind: a basis and a cost floor are physical facts settled daily, whereas rate pricing and the dollar can be taken back in a single print — which is exactly what happened this session. ⊘ It is also slower: physical improvement does not produce a 270-point advance in one day the way the macro column did (interpretation).

Cost and overseas physical

  • ⚑ NEW: Chalco’s 2026 interim report shows first-half metallurgical-grade alumina output of 7.38 million mt, DOWN 14.19% year on year. The single largest producer cutting by an eighth is a cost-floor datum, not a demand one (interpretation).
  • Changjiang composite alumina: East China 2,730, South China 2,665, both carried. ⊘ SMM’s alumina index and Chalco’s five regional listings are login-walled for a FIFTH consecutive edition and remain at August 27 (index 2,676; Shandong 2,730, Henan 2,770, Shanxi 2,770, Guizhou 2,785, Guangxi 2,660).
  • ⚑ Note: the alumina futures price of 2,757 is now above several of those carried regional listings, but they are a stale August 27 print and this brief does NOT infer a basis from them (interpretation).
  • Carried (bearish): Japanese Q4 2026 premium offers $310–325/mt, −18% to −22% q/q; no update and no rebuttal this edition.
  • Carried (bullish): Guinean bauxite spot $72–73/dry mt; September long-term flat on August, implying CIF $73–74; freight near $40/mt; September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 acceptance.
  • ⊘ Four ADC12 calibers remain unreconciled: 23,900 carried, Changjiang spot alloy 24,000, Changjiang composite East China 23,615, Foshan mainstream 23,500–23,800. A356.2 24,400. Carried: secondary operating rate 49.1%; scrap 19,900–20,700; overseas ADC12 $3,050–3,190; Port Klang FOB $3,090; MJP spot premium $270/mt.

3 · Inventory

⊘ The inventory column degraded this edition: London went dark, the domestic test failed to resolve a second time, and a third caliber appeared

  • ⊘ The September 4 LME stock figure was not retrievable. September 3’s 245,975 mt (−250, called the lowest since 1990 by Reuters/ING) is CARRIED, not confirmed.
  • ⊘⊘ The SMM Thursday social-inventory print was not retrievable for a SECOND consecutive edition. The prior watchlist read: “if it is still unavailable, this brief will for a second consecutive edition carry the same judgement on two calibers that do not reconcile, and the reliability of that judgement should be downgraded.” The condition holds, and **the downgrade is executed here: the 837,000 mt caliber is marked LOW-CONFIDENCE from this edition and is no longer this brief’s primary domestic caliber.**
  • ⊘ A third caliber arrived at the same time: SMM’s own end-August assessment puts inventory in major consuming regions at 852,000 mt on August 27 and roughly 850,000 mt at month-end — down 8,000 mt from the prior Monday and down 23,000 mt week-on-week from the prior Thursday.
  • ⊘ There are therefore now THREE domestic social-inventory calibers that do not reconcile: SMM’s month-end 852,000 mt (August 27), the carried 837,000 mt, and Mysteel’s 809,000 mt (August 31). Spread: 43,000 mt. All three are listed; none is reconciled.
  • ⚑ All three still point the SAME WAY, and SMM supplies the magnitudes: over 170,000 mt destocked in July, 106,000 mt across all of August, 278,000 mt cumulatively since July from a phase high of 1.13 million mt in early July, with destocking expected to continue through the first half of September. ⊘ SMM also calls the current level the highest for the same period in nearly four years.
  • ⊘ The SHFE weekly warehouse print was not retrievable (it publishes Friday afternoon and was unavailable at writing). Carried: 391,498 mt with registered warrants 245,510 (−28,691), described by third parties as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline totalling −137,387 mt from June 12’s six-year high of 528,885 mt.
  • Carried with no new print: bonded 116,000 mt at September 3 (Shanghai 89,000 + Guangdong 27,000, flat w/w); national alumina inventory 7.27 million mt at September 3 (+8,000); SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827); national billet 140,500 mt (August 31); cast alloy 28,100 mt.

Interpretation

  • ⊘ This is the weakest inventory column this brief has carried recently, and the weakness is one of RETRIEVAL rather than of fact: London went dark for a day, the domestic first-order test failed twice running, and a third caliber widened the spread from 28,000 mt to 43,000 mt. The directional evidence remains sufficient; the level evidence is no longer reliable (interpretation).
  • ⚑ One balancing point deserves its own line: SMM’s own July and August magnitudes (170,000 and 106,000 mt) are the only domestic inventory evidence in this edition that carries a TIME SPAN, and they show destocking DECELERATING — August ran at roughly six-tenths of July’s pace. That single datum supports both “destocking continues” and “destocking is slowing,” and both readings are recorded (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⊘ A macro column that turned bullish on one speech was turned back by one print

  • ⚑ US August nonfarm payrolls came in at **162,000, against a consensus of 53,000 (a 56,000 caliber also appears) — roughly TRIPLE, and above EVERY estimate in the Bloomberg survey. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%.**
  • ⚑ The revisions matter as much: July was restated from a reported −23,000 to **+21,000, and June was revised up 11,000 to 31,000. The expansion’s only monthly job loss therefore NEVER HAPPENED.**
  • ⚑ But the wage line withheld permission: average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month to $37.75 and only 3.1% year on year — the softest reading of the cycle.
  • ⊘ CME and rate-futures calibers (four, mutually unreconciled, all moving the same way): September hike odds went from about 50.5% to roughly 65% on the print, easing back to about 57% by the New York afternoon; a money-market caliber reads 61% against 54% a day earlier; a fourth reads 52–58% against 63% before Waller spoke.
  • ⚑ The magnitude reading is the point: a three-times beat bought roughly five to fifteen points of pricing, while one speech containing no data at all had bought more than twenty in the other direction one session earlier. The wage line is the variable that explains that asymmetry (interpretation).
  • ⊘ The dollar index rose 0.13% to 99.13 (a 99.27 caliber also appears), **reclaiming 99. This brief recorded the sub-99 break as “decisive, not a stall.” It lasted exactly one session.**
  • ⊘ Gold fell on three calibers: spot −2.2% to $4,376.04; a COMEX caliber $4,384.91 (−1.98%); a third $4,476.60 (−$63.30, −1.39%). All listed, none reconciled, all pointing down.
  • ⊘ Equities handed back the best day since August 4: Dow 53,413 (−272.51, −0.51%), S&P 500 7,718 (−29.35, −0.38%), Nasdaq 26,506 (−77.07, −0.29%).
  • ⊘ The curve bear-flattened: the 2-year at 4.37%–4.41% (two calibers, from 4.322%), the 10-year at 4.78%–4.79% (from 4.761%), the 30-year roughly unchanged near 5.23%. The front end did all the work.
  • ⊘ Crude calibers disagree: one reads WTI $91.48 (+0.2%) and Brent $96.28 (+0.8%); another reads WTI slipping below $90. Both listed, neither reconciled.
  • ⊘ The October fed funds strip was not retrievable for an EIGHTH consecutive edition; the middle of the Fed path remains unpriceable.

Interpretation: macro reverts from bullish to neutral-bearish, having been bullish for exactly one edition

  • ⊘ The prior edition recorded the first bullish macro turn of this run on six aligned facts: Waller, pricing collapsing to 50.5%, the dollar below 99, a stronger yen, both ends of the curve falling and equities surging. FIVE of those six were handed back in varying degree this session — pricing rose, the dollar reclaimed 99, the front end sold off, equities gave it back and gold fell.
  • ⚑ The only one NOT handed back is the wage line, and it is the only one of the six that speaks directly to the CASE for a hike (interpretation).
  • ⊘ This brief therefore downgrades the macro column from BULLISH to NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH, and records explicitly that the prior edition’s bullish call rested on one governor’s speech rather than on data, that the prior edition wrote that constraint down at the time, and that the constraint was validated within twenty-four hours (interpretation).
  • ⚑ But it must be recorded alongside aluminium’s own behaviour: payrolls landed at 20:30 Beijing, the SHFE night session opened at 21:00, gapped down 50 and closed 30 above the day close. Aluminium did not follow the macro shock down, knowing it (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Overseas and cost: one new datum, pointing bullish

  • ⚑ NEW: Chalco’s first-half metallurgical-grade alumina output of 7.38 million mt, −14.19% year on year.
  • ⊘ The line that must sit beside it: China’s built alumina capacity of 120.95 million mt/yr against 95.90 million mt/yr running, roughly 25.05 million mt/yr idle at about 79.3% utilisation, with August output expected to exceed 8 million mt (all carried). The idle capacity dwarfs the cumulative scale of everything cut on the forward ledger.
  • Carried forward supply ledger (no update this edition): Rusal’s proposal to mothball 2.1 million mt of alumina capacity and the SUBR mine (still a proposal); Guinea’s export cap target near 150 million mt/yr (−25%); Rio Tinto’s Yarwun cutting 1.2 million mt/yr from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut by 200–300kt; Alunorte, which ran at 50% on gas and later recovered on a temporary terminal agreement; Qatalum at roughly 60% of nameplate; Alba lines 1–3 down (19%); EGA Al Taweelah refilled from 18% to 25%.
  • ⚑ Alumina confirmed cost on BOTH legs this session: the close of 2,757 is 39 above cost caliber one and the settlement of 2,748 is 30 above it. Cost caliber two at 2,826.21 remains 69.21 above the close, narrowed from 101.21.

Domestic supply and demand

  • Carried: China’s primary aluminium operating rate at 98.4% — against the 45 million mt ceiling there is no domestic supply elasticity; the Fifteenth Five-Year industrial green and low-carbon plan still gives no detail on how the smelting ceiling will be handled.
  • Carried: RatingDog August manufacturing PMI 51.5 (a six-month high); NBS August 49.8; aluminium fabrication composite PMI 48.7% in August.
  • Carried: weekly operating rates to August 27 — extrusion 50.6% (−0.2), sheet and strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6). No update this edition.
  • ⚑ The strongest demand evidence remains price-based rather than quantity-based, but it is a grade stronger than the prior edition’s: last edition read “all nine spot calibers rose but lagged the board by 10”; this edition reads “the board fell 80 while East China spot rose 20 and the basis flipped to a +70 premium.” The first can be explained as following; the second cannot (interpretation).
  • ⊘ The contrary line: the three South China calibers fell in absolute terms, Nanhai by 40. East and South China DIVERGED this session rather than moving together (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Carried (demand timing): SMM notes pre-Mid-Autumn Festival restocking by some downstream firms and lists it among the reasons for destocking in Foshan and Gongyi.
  • Carried (policy/trade): Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% on September 8, with aluminium billet named. That date falls one session after Monday’s reopen and belongs on the watchlist.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

September 4 transactions and sentiment

  • East China: Shanghai spot 24,360 (+20), basis +70 premium. Holders raised offers by 20 while the board fell 80 and still transacted, which says the physical end did not follow the board down (interpretation).
  • ⊘ South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40), Nanchu 24,520 (−30), Chalco South 24,520 (−30) — all three fell in absolute terms. Nanhai−Shanghai narrowed to 450, Nanchu−Shanghai to 160.
  • Central China: Chalco Central 24,210 (unchanged), a second consecutive session above 24,000; Southwest 24,370 (unchanged).
  • Shipment willingness: East China moves from weak to **STRONG holding (reluctance to sell increasing) — raising offers against a falling board is textbook holding behaviour; ⊘ South China is the reverse, cutting offers by 30 to 40, so shipment willingness is high there and price-support willingness low. The two regions diverge (interpretation).**
  • Purchasing willingness: East China moves from neutral to **STRONG — a basis travelling from −30 to +70 means downstream buyers paid ABOVE the board, which is the strongest purchasing signal this brief has recorded recently (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices were not retrievable; the judgements above are inferred from prices, changes, the basis and spread behaviour, and are NOT SMM indices.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑⚑ The basis flipped from a −30 discount to a +70 premium, a hundred-point swing, and the first spot premium since August 13.
  • ⚑⚑ And it did so on a day the board fell 80 while spot rose 20 — spot outperforming a falling board eliminates the “dragged along” explanation.
  • ⚑ The prior watchlist required the basis back inside −20 to restore “downstream is taking metal at higher prices.” It came back to +70, far beyond the test, so the judgement is restored on better evidence than the test specified.
  • ⚑ The night session opened AFTER the payrolls release: gapped down 50, closed 30 above the day close and 13 above its own VWAP. Aluminium absorbed the macro shock itself.
  • ⚑ The close is still above all six moving averages, by 101.00 to 713.33 — a fifth consecutive session above the whole band.
  • ⚑ All six averages are still rising; MA60 advanced for a second consecutive session (+1.75).
  • ⚑ The week closed +370 (+1.55%) against August 28’s 23,920.
  • ⚑ The settlement of 24,375 is 100 above the prior settlement; on a settlement basis this trading day was UP.
  • ⚑ Main-contract OI fell 2,092 but AL2611 added 7,757 and the complex added 2,553 — a roll, not liquidation.
  • ⚑ The close of 24,290 is still above the bear branch’s 24,275 trigger; that branch did not fire.
  • ⚑ Alumina closed 2,757, above all six of its averages in a DAY session for the first time in this run, and the highest close in forty-seven sessions.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s day high of 2,779 is the highest print in thirty-two sessions.
  • ⚑ The alumina settlement of 2,748 is 30 above cost caliber one; the prior edition’s contradiction (close above cost, settlement below it) is resolved with both legs above.
  • ⚑ Alumina’s 20-session close percentile rose to 100.0% and the 60-session from 34.2% to 44.0%.
  • ⚑ AO2701’s open interest of 150,947 (+5,658) now EXCEEDS the front contract’s 113,727 — the far month is the larger book for the first time, so the money is migrating rather than leaving.
  • ⚑ The alumina night last of 2,760 held above all six averages again.
  • ⚑ Cost caliber two’s distance above the alumina close narrowed from 101.21 to 69.21.
  • ⚑ NEW: Chalco’s first-half metallurgical alumina output of 7.38 million mt, −14.19% y/y.
  • ⚑ US average hourly earnings rose only 3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle — the one variable directly bearing on the case for a hike still withholds permission.
  • ⚑ A three-times payrolls beat bought only about five to fifteen points of hike pricing; the asymmetry itself reads dovish.
  • ⚑ All three domestic social-inventory calibers point down; SMM gives over 170,000 mt destocked in July, 106,000 mt in August, 278,000 mt cumulatively since July, and expects destocking to continue through the first half of September.
  • ⚑ SMM cites pre-Mid-Autumn Festival restocking among the reasons for destocking in Foshan and Gongyi.
  • ⚑ Carried: LME stocks 245,975 mt (September 3), called the lowest since 1990 by Reuters/ING.
  • ⚑ Carried: SHFE weekly 391,498 mt described by third parties as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline, −137,387 mt from the six-year high.
  • ⚑ Carried: bonded stocks 116,000 mt, flat week-on-week; external material is still not returning.
  • ⚑ Carried: the forward alumina and bauxite ledger remains cut or capped in several places (Rusal, Guinea, Yarwun, Alcoa, Qatalum near 60%, Alba −19%).
  • ⚑ Carried: Guinean bauxite $72–73/dry mt, September long-term flat, freight near $40 — the ore cost floor is still rising.
  • ⚑ China’s primary aluminium operating rate of 98.4% leaves no domestic supply elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling.
  • ⚑ AD2610 fell 90 but held above all six of its own averages for a fifth session; the AD−AL night spread narrowed from 825 to 765.
  • ⚑ Conditional derivation: at TradingEconomics’ $3,292.65, London would still sit above all six September 3 averages by $40.05 to $72.20 (resting on an unreconciled caliber).

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘⊘ The close of 24,290 landed exactly back on the August 12 close — the twenty-session close top cleared by 80 one session earlier. The whole clearance was handed back inside one session.
  • ⊘ The session fell 220 from its high of 24,510 and 240 from high to low, giving back 80 of the prior day’s 270.
  • ⊘ 24,490 and 24,510 were not held in daylight; the pair is reclassified from “cleared” to “confirmed resistance.”
  • ⊘ The prior two-branch test landed in the gap and is recorded INDETERMINATE — the September 3 advance is neither confirmed as a trend nor falsified.
  • ⊘ Volume of 151,835 is 33.9% below the prior session’s sixty-session record; the follow-through did not come.
  • ⊘ The MA5 clearance collapsed from 255.00 to 101.00; the fast average is now within reach.
  • ⊘ Both close percentiles fell from 100.0%/100.0% to 89.7%/95.8%.
  • ⊘ Main-contract open interest fell 2,092 (the roll explanation holds, but the front book itself is contracting).
  • ⊘ US August payrolls at 162,000 tripled the consensus and beat every estimate in the Bloomberg survey; July was restated from −23,000 to +21,000 and June revised up to 31,000, so the expansion’s only monthly job loss never happened.
  • ⊘ September hike odds went from about 50.5% back to roughly 65%, settling near 57% (four calibers, all moving up).
  • ⊘ The dollar reclaimed 99 at 99.13 (a 99.27 caliber also appears); the break this brief called “decisive” lasted one session.
  • ⊘ Gold fell on all three calibers (−1.39% to −2.2%); equities handed back the best day since August 4; the 2-year rose to 4.37%–4.41%.
  • ⊘ The macro column is downgraded from bullish to neutral-to-bearish, having been bullish for exactly one edition.
  • ⊘ Alumina open interest fell 14,117, a sixth consecutive decline and the largest single-session fall since August 28; the cumulative fall from August 27 is −167,223 lots (−59.5%).
  • ⊘ Alumina complex open interest fell 10,329, so beyond migration there is genuine departure.
  • ⊘ All three South China spot calibers fell in absolute terms (Nanhai −40, Nanchu −30, Chalco South −30); East and South China diverged.
  • ⊘ All three South China spreads narrowed a second consecutive day; South China’s structural tightness is formally recorded as faded.
  • ⊘ Only four of ten spot calibers rose; three fell and two were unchanged.
  • ⊘ Westmetall’s September 4 settlement row did not publish, so there is no new exact London average this edition; the LME stock figure was likewise unavailable, making 245,975 mt a day-stale carry rather than a confirmation.
  • ⊘ The only September 4 London caliber retrieved, $3,292.65 (−0.81%), points DOWN and cannot be reconciled with the settlement series.
  • ⊘ The SMM Thursday social-inventory print failed for a second consecutive edition; the 837,000 mt caliber is downgraded to low-confidence per the prior edition’s own commitment.
  • ⊘ There are now THREE mutually irreconcilable domestic social-inventory calibers (852,000 / 837,000 / 809,000); the spread widened from 28,000 mt to 43,000 mt.
  • ⊘ SMM’s own data show destocking DECELERATING: 106,000 mt in August against over 170,000 mt in July, roughly six-tenths of the pace; SMM also calls the level the highest for the same period in nearly four years.
  • ⊘ The SHFE weekly warehouse print was not retrievable this edition.
  • ⊘ China’s idle alumina capacity of roughly 25.05 million mt/yr, with August output expected above 8 million mt, dwarfs the cumulative forward cuts.
  • ⊘ The AD−AL day spread widened from 735 to 745; AD2611’s book is now triple AD2610’s, so cast alloy has effectively completed its roll.
  • ⊘ Japanese Q4 premium offers of $310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q) remain the hardest bearish physical datum on the ledger, with no update and no rebuttal.
  • ⊘ The October fed funds strip is missing for an eighth edition; Chalco’s five regional alumina listings are untestable for a fifth.
  • ⊘ Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariff rises from 25% to 50% on September 8, with aluminium billet named.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The market spent one session walking back, to the yuan, to the exact level it had cleared the session before: AL2610’s trading day opened 24,475, printed 24,510 — the highest tick since June 5 — and closed 24,290, which is precisely the August 12 close and precisely the twenty-session close top that the prior edition named and that September 3 cleared by 80, not near it but ON it; a caliber note belongs here immediately because it changes the reading, since the exchange’s September 4 trading day by construction contains the September 3 night session, so the open of 24,475 and the high of 24,510 are that night’s already-published prints and the daylight portion traded down from 24,390 to 24,290 without making a new high at any point; the prior edition’s two-branch test then landed in the gap between its own branches — 100 below “close above 24,390 with open interest rising” and 15 above “close below 24,275 with open interest falling” — while the positioning half split as well, main-contract open interest falling 2,092 against AL2611’s build of 7,757 and a complex build of 2,553, which makes the front-month decline a roll rather than liquidation on the identical standard this brief applied in the opposite direction on September 2, so the test is recorded as INDETERMINATE and this brief will not manufacture a verdict the tape did not give; what WAS answered, cleanly and negatively, is that 24,490 and 24,510 could not be held in daylight, the tape falling 240 from the high, so that pair is reclassified from cleared to confirmed resistance; the macro column was turned back wholesale by a single print, with August payrolls at 162,000 against a consensus of 53,000 — roughly triple and above every estimate in the Bloomberg survey — unemployment holding 4.1%, July restated from −23,000 to +21,000 and June revised up to 31,000 so that the expansion’s only monthly job loss never happened, September hike odds travelling from about 50.5% back to roughly 65% and settling near 57%, the dollar reclaiming 99 at 99.13, gold falling on three separate calibers and equities handing back the best day since August 4, so the macro column this brief recorded as bullish for the first time in this run is downgraded back to neutral-to-bearish after exactly one edition, the sole survivor being average hourly earnings at just 3.1% year on year, the softest of the cycle and the only one of the six aligned facts that speaks directly to the case for a hike — which is also why a three-times beat bought only about five to fifteen points of pricing while a speech containing no data at all had bought more than twenty; and against all of that, the two columns that are genuinely physical went the other way and went hard, because the basis flipped from a 30 discount to a 70 premium, a hundred-point swing and the first spot premium since August 13, achieved on a day the board fell 80 while spot rose 20 — spot outperforming a FALLING board, which eliminates the “dragged along” explanation and is the strongest form this evidence can take, far beyond the prior watchlist’s mere requirement that the basis return inside −20; alumina did the same thing in its own book, AO2610 closing 2,757 for its highest close in forty-seven sessions and its first six-of-six in a day session of this run, with a day high of 2,779 that is the highest print in thirty-two sessions and, resolving the contradiction this brief flagged one edition ago, a settlement of 2,748 now thirty above cost caliber one where the prior settlement had been eleven below it; the price of that was the same in kind as the prior two editions and larger in size, open interest falling 14,117 for a sixth consecutive session and the largest single-session decline since August 28, taking the cumulative fall from August 27 to 167,223 lots or 59.5% of the book — except that a decisive balancing fact arrived, since AO2701’s open interest of 150,947 now EXCEEDS the front contract’s 113,727 and the far month is the larger book for the first time, so the money is migrating rather than leaving, even though the complex’s own decline of 10,329 says some of it is genuinely gone; three things weakened, as all three South China spot calibers fell in absolute terms and all three South China spreads narrowed a second consecutive session, which under the prior watchlist’s own terms formally records South China tightness as faded; London went blank, with Westmetall’s September 4 settlement row unpublished at writing so that no new exact London average exists this edition, the September 3 set carried explicitly as the last exact one, the only September 4 caliber retrieved being TradingEconomics’ $3,292.65 which is neither reconciled nor used for any computation, which in turn makes the hardest bullish number this brief carries — 245,975 mt, the lowest since 1990 — a day-stale carry rather than a confirmation; and the SMM Thursday social-inventory print failed a second consecutive time, triggering the explicit commitment the prior watchlist made and which is executed here, so the reliability of the domestic inventory judgement is downgraded, the 837,000 mt caliber is marked low-confidence and demoted from primary, and a third caliber arrived beside the other two in SMM’s own end-August assessment of 852,000 mt at August 27 against Mysteel’s 809,000 mt, widening the spread from 28,000 to 43,000 mt — all three still pointing the same way, though SMM’s own magnitudes show destocking decelerating, August’s 106,000 mt running at roughly six-tenths of July’s 170,000; the conclusion is therefore that the bulls handed back a macro column they had held for exactly one edition, handed back the 24,490–24,510 zone and handed back South China, and took in exchange a basis flipped into premium, an alumina cost floor now cleared on both the close and the settlement, a Chalco half-year alumina output figure down 14.19%, and a night session that opened fifty below the close into the payrolls print and ended thirty above it — so the bull case did not weaken this session so much as it MIGRATED, out of a financial column that any single data point can take back and into a physical column that settles daily, which is more durable in kind and slower in speed (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for the Monday September 7 Reopen

  • ⚑ 24,290 is itself Monday’s first discriminator, and it has a known mark on either side: 24,320 and 24,189.00. The September 4 close landed on the August 12 close, and the September 4 night’s last of 24,320 has already lifted it by 30, so Monday begins from 24,320, not from 24,290. If the day session holds above 24,290 and closes above the night’s last of 24,320, the retreat should be classified as a confirming retest of a level already cleared. If 24,290 breaks and MA5 (24,189.00 — a clearance already collapsed from 255.00 to 101.00) goes with it, price is back inside its own band and the advance structure dating from August 3 requires re-evaluation for the first time.
  • ⚑ The unresolved two-branch test remains live on Monday at 24,390 and 24,275 — and this time the open-interest leg must be read on the COMPLEX, not the main contract alone. The test landed in the gap partly because the front-month decline was offset by AL2611’s build. If Monday closes above 24,390 with COMPLEX open interest still rising, the September 3 advance is retroactively confirmed as a trend; if it closes below 24,275 with complex open interest turning down, 24,510 becomes the formal top of this run. From the next edition this brief will treat complex open interest as the primary positioning caliber.
  • ⚑ London must fill two days at once: Westmetall’s September 4 settlement row, and the stock figures for both September 4 and September 7. London was blank this edition, so three things are pending simultaneously: whether the September 4 cash settlement lands near TradingEconomics’ $3,292.65 (if so, London remains above all six averages and the six-of-six continues); whether the $0.50 contango widens or returns to backwardation; and whether stocks kept drawing after 245,975 mt — if September 4 and September 7 both fall, “lowest since 1990” becomes a live sequence rather than a static description, and that is the single most important medium-term variable this brief currently carries.
  • ⚑⚑ Whether the basis holds its premium is the only test of whether this edition’s strongest evidence survives. The flip from −30 to +70 is the one piece of evidence here that arrived in its strongest possible form, but it has exactly one session behind it. If Monday keeps spot above the board (basis ≥ 0), the single event becomes a sequence and the physical column can be formally upgraded; if the basis falls back outside −20 inside one session, this edition’s premium should be reclassified as a passive dislocation caused by Friday’s board decline rather than a genuine improvement in purchasing willingness. Watch too whether the three South China calibers stop falling — Nanhai 24,810, Nanchu 24,520, Chalco South 24,520.
  • ⚑ Alumina: the price is above cost and the day session is six-of-six; the only leg still missing is positioning, and the discriminators are 2,738.68 and 2,718. If Monday closes above MA60 (2,738.68) and ends the six-session open-interest decline, the test that has been split in half for three consecutive editions finally converges bullishly. If it falls back below cost caliber one (2,718) on a seventh decline, it should be formally judged an advance carried by the aluminium price and the cost narrative without funding of its own. Watch too whether AO2701 stays the larger book than AO2610 — if that relationship consolidates, the “migration, not departure” reading gets its second confirmation.
  • ⚑ Whether the three domestic inventory calibers converge, and whether the SHFE weekly and the SMM Thursday print resume publishing. The spread now stands at 43,000 mt (852,000 / 837,000 / 809,000) and this brief has already demoted 837,000 mt to low confidence as promised. If the SMM print resumes Monday, the gaps can be explained and the judgement’s confidence restored; if it is unavailable for a THIRD consecutive edition, this brief will switch to the Mysteel caliber as its primary domestic number and will state the switch explicitly. The SHFE weekly (last print 391,498 mt, called an eleventh week by third parties) should also publish during the week, and whether it extends to a twelfth is direct evidence on the time span of domestic destocking.
  • ⚑ Macro: next week’s US inflation data and the pricing path into the September 15–16 meeting; plus the Canadian tariff step on September 8. Payrolls has already pushed September pricing back to roughly 57%, and the wage line is the only variable withholding permission, which makes the next inflation print carry MORE weight than this payrolls print did. A hot CPI could take pricing through 65% and push the dollar higher, and aluminium at the 89.7% percentile has limited positional cushion; a cool one would make this session’s macro retreat look like noise. Watch also whether the October fed funds strip finally becomes retrievable — absent for eight editions — and the practical effect of Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariff rising from 25% to 50% on September 8 with aluminium billet named.

Disclaimer

  • This brief is prepared for internal morning-meeting reference only. Data are drawn from public sources including the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s own daily files, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, SMM, Mysteel, CNAL and public company disclosures. Items marked ⚑ / ⊘ are factual data; items marked (interpretation) or (derivation) are this brief’s own judgements or calculations, and the two are separated explicitly throughout. Where sources disagree, all calibers are listed side by side and none is reconciled. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, and no responsibility is accepted for any decision taken on the basis of it.