Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

Weekend: China's social inventory falls 37,000t to 815,000t. The destock re-accelerates to 1.55 times the August pace.周末版:中国社会库存下降 3.7 万吨至 81.5 万吨;去库速度回升至 8 月的 1.55 倍。

Sunday, September 6, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Sunday September 6 (Asia). No exchange traded between this edition and the last: both Chinese boards are shut until the Monday September 7 day session and London is shut until Monday, so EVERY price, average, percentile and open-interest figure in Section 1 is the September 4 set carried forward unchanged from the prior edition and is explicitly labelled as carried. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION IS ENTIRELY NON-PRICE: SMM's Thursday September 3 social-inventory print, which became retrievable overnight after failing for two consecutive editions and which triggers the REVERSAL of the reliability downgrade executed one edition ago; SMM's September 2 and September 3 three-region daily ingot series and the matching two-region billet series; SMM's August 27 regional breakdown and its weekly warehouse-withdrawal figure; an independent re-verification of the LME September 3 averages directly against Westmetall's own published rows; the full September 4 SHFE aluminium settlement and range table for the non-main contracts, including AL2702, from a third-party mirror of the exchange file; a fourth macro caliber set for the September 4 US close; four new supply-side items on alumina, bauxite and Rusal; two new trade-policy items; and next week's China data calendar. ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: Westmetall's September 4 LME cash and 3-month settlement row, unpublished for a THIRD consecutive edition — no new exact London average can be computed and the September 3 set is carried again as the last exact one; the September 4 AND September 7 LME stock figures, so 245,975 mt is now TWO days stale; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; SMM's absolute A00 quotation, its regional transaction premia, its shipment and purchasing sentiment indices, its alumina index and Chalco's five regional alumina listings (login-walled — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a SIXTH consecutive edition rather than failed); the Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao spot calibers; and the October fed funds strip, absent for a NINTH consecutive edition.
Steven Yuan
⚑⚑ THE MISSING PRINT ARRIVED: 815,000 MT AT SEPTEMBER 3 SMM's Thursday social-inventory figure — absent for two editions — is 815,000 mt, DOWN 22,000 from Monday and DOWN 37,000 from the prior Thursday. It is the single most important fact in this edition and it is a fact, not an interpretation
⚑⚑ AND THE 43,000 MT 'THREE-CALIBER SPREAD' DISSOLVES TO ZERO 852,000 is Aug 27. 837,000 is Aug 31. 815,000 is Sept 3. The chain closes exactly on all three identities: 852−15=837, 837−22=815, 852−37=815. They were never three calibers of one number — they were one caliber at three dates (derivation)
⚑ SO YESTERDAY'S DOWNGRADE IS REVERSED — ON THIS BRIEF'S OWN STANDARD The prior edition marked the 837,000 mt figure LOW-CONFIDENCE and removed it as the primary domestic caliber, under a commitment written in advance. The condition that triggered it was absence of data, and the data has arrived and vindicated the number. The downgrade is withdrawn
⚑⚑ AND THE RESTORED SERIES FALSIFIES THE PRIOR EDITION'S BEARISH READING 37,000 mt in the Aug 27→Sept 3 week against an August weekly pace of ~23,935 mt (106,000 over 31 days) — that is 1.55×. Against July's ~38,387 it is 96%. Destocking did not decelerate into September; it RE-ACCELERATED to roughly the July pace (derivation)
⚑ CUMULATIVE DRAW FROM THE PHASE HIGH IS NOW 315,000 MT From the early-July peak of 1.13 million mt to 815,000 mt. One edition ago the same computation gave 278,000 mt against ~850,000. The run has extended by 37,000 mt in a single print (derivation)
⚑ THE DAILY SERIES AGREES, AND IT IS ALSO ACCELERATING Three-region ingot: Sept 1 659,500 → Sept 2 651,500 (−8,000) → Sept 3 641,000 (−10,500). Guangdong 143,000 (−1,500), Wuxi 300,000 (−4,500), Gongyi 198,000 (−4,500). The daily draw got LARGER, not smaller
⚑ THE THREE REGIONS ARE 78.7% OF THE NATIONAL NUMBER — SO THE COVERAGE IS REAL 641,000 against 815,000. This is not a narrow sample confirming a broad one; it is most of the broad one (derivation)
⚑⊘ A CONDITIONAL DERIVATION THAT CUTS BOTH WAYS SMM's Aug 27 regional table (Foshan 153,000 + Wuxi 326,000 + Gongyi 209,000 = 688,000) against Sept 3's 641,000 implies −47,000 in the three regions versus −37,000 nationally, i.e. ~+10,000 built elsewhere. ⊘ But 'Foshan' and 'Guangdong' may not be the same caliber. Flagged, NOT reconciled
⚑ AND THE REGIONAL FIVE-WEEK DRAWS ARE LARGE SMM: Foshan −66,000 mt over five weeks to 153,000 with premiums at 220 yuan/mt; Gongyi −35,000 to 209,000; Wuxi 326,000 fluctuating. Weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt, +12,200 w/w — called the highest for the same period in nearly four years
⊘ ONE GENUINE INVENTORY SPREAD SURVIVES, AND ONLY ONE Mysteel's 809,000 mt at Aug 31 against SMM's 837,000 mt at Aug 31 — same date, 28,000 mt apart, of which ~107,000 mt is unclear-ownership tonnage in the Mysteel caliber. That one is a real caliber difference and is NOT dissolved by this edition
⊘ LONDON IS BLANK FOR A THIRD CONSECUTIVE EDITION Westmetall's newest row is still September 3 (cash 3,303.00 / 3M 3,303.50 / stock 245,975). No September 4 settlement, therefore no new exact London average for a third edition running
⊘ AND THE HARDEST BULLISH NUMBER THIS BRIEF CARRIES IS NOW TWO DAYS STALE 245,975 mt — Reuters' and ING's 'lowest since 1990' — is a September 3 print with neither a September 4 nor a September 7 confirmation. It is carried, not confirmed, for the second edition in a row
⚑ METHOD: THE LONDON AVERAGES WERE RE-VERIFIED TO THE CENT AGAINST THE SOURCE ROWS MA5 recomputed from Westmetall's own Sept 3/2/1 and Aug 28/27 closes = 3,250.80 EXACTLY. MA10 adding Aug 26/25/24/21/20 = 3,229.40 EXACTLY. Both reproduce the published figures with no rounding gap, so the carried London set is independently sound
⊘ THE TRADINGECONOMICS SEPTEMBER 4 CALIBER IS CONFIRMED — AND STILL NOT A SETTLEMENT $3,292.50, −$27.00 (−0.81%), monthly +1.32%, yearly +26.34%. The prior edition's $3,292.65 variant resolves to $3,292.50 on the source's own page. It remains unreconciled with Westmetall and is used to compute nothing
⚑⊘ THE RATIO, ON BOTH CALIBERS 24,290 against the last EXACT cash of $3,303.00 gives 7.3539. Against the TradingEconomics $3,292.50 it gives 7.3774. Both listed; neither reconciled (derivation)
⊘ NO NEW SHFE SESSION — EVERY PRICE IN SECTION 1 IS CARRIED AL2610 24,290, alumina AO2610 2,757, AD2610 23,545, all eighteen SHFE averages and all six percentiles are the September 4 values, unchanged. Nothing traded. This is stated once and applies throughout
⚑ CARRIED: THE BOARD IS STILL ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES BY 101.00 TO 713.33 MA5 24,189.00, MA10 23,996.50, MA20 23,981.75, MA30 23,859.50, MA40 23,693.38, MA60 23,576.67 — a fifth consecutive session above the whole band, all six still rising, with the MA5 clearance at 101.00 the only one within reach
⚑ NEW CONTRACT DETAIL: AL2702 CLOSED 24,160, +60, ON OI OF 17,360 From a third-party mirror of the exchange file. The far month posted the LARGEST close-basis gain on the aluminium board on a day the front fell 80 — a small fact, but it points the same way as the AL2611 roll (derivation)
⊘ NEW BEARISH TRADE ITEM: THAILAND OPENS A NEW-EXPORTER REVIEW ON CHINESE EXTRUSIONS Provisional cash deposit rate 21.94% for applicants, under an order finalised November 24, 2025 at 5.12%–21.94% for five years. It lands on the export-demand column, which is already the weakest column in the brief
⊘ AND CANADA'S STEP-UP IS NOW TWO DAYS AWAY September 8: counter-tariffs on steel and aluminium rise from 25% to 50%, with aluminium rod named. Carried, but the date is now inside the watchlist window
⊘⊘ THE ALUMINA SUPPLY LEDGER TURNED BEARISH IN THREE PLACES AT ONCE Asia's H1 alumina exports 7.05 million mt, +27.36% y/y, $2.76 billion, with 8 million mt flagged as reachable in H2; China alumina spot drifting lower on climbing inventories and elevated output; and imported bauxite arrivals surging as Guinean miners front-load ahead of policy and rainy-season risk
⊘ AND A NEW OPERATING-CAPACITY CALIBER THAT DOES NOT MATCH THE CARRIED ONE A weekly trade caliber puts Chinese alumina operating capacity at ~99 million mt/yr against the 95.90 million mt/yr this brief carries, on 120.95 million mt built. Both listed, NOT reconciled — but either way idle capacity dwarfs the forward cut ledger
⚑ THE COST SIDE ADDED ONE BULLISH ITEM September aluminium fluoride tender prices were settled higher by benchmark enterprises, extending the smelter-input cost lift that prebaked anode at 5,730 yuan/mt spot already carries
⚑⊘ RUSAL: FOUR BAUXITE AND ALUMINA PLANTS NOW FLAGGED, ~$800 MILLION OF ANNUAL LOSSES The producer is reported seeking Kremlin support with four facilities at mothballing risk. ⚑ Bullish for the alumina cost floor if executed; ⊘ still a proposal, like the 2.1 million mt mothball already on the ledger. Recorded as unexecuted
⊘ DOWNSTREAM: ALUMINIUM ROD OVERSUPPLY PERSISTS AND FEES STAY AT LOW LEVELS Inventory ratios fell week-on-week but absolute rod inventory stayed elevated with subdued demand recovery. This is the sharpest counterweight to the ingot draw: metal leaving ingot warehouses is partly arriving in rod warehouses (interpretation)
⚑⊘ ADC12 ROSE AGAIN BUT LAGGED PRIMARY FOR A CONSECUTIVE WEEK Chinese scrap prices stable to slightly higher and ADC12 up for consecutive weeks, but primary outpaced scrap — consistent with the AD−AL day spread widening 735 → 745 on September 4
⊘ A FOURTH MACRO CALIBER SET FOR THE SEPTEMBER 4 CLOSE — AND THE OIL LEG BREAKS S&P 7,719 (−0.38%), Dow 53,414 (−0.51%), Nasdaq 26,507 (−0.29%), 10-year 4.789%, DXY 99.157 (+0.25%), gold $4,429 (−1.14%), VIX 14.53. ⊘⊘ But Brent $88.88 and WTI $83.11 against the $96.28 / $91.31 set carried yesterday — a $7–8 gap that no source reconciles
⊘ AND THE FED CALIBERS NOW DISAGREE ON DIRECTION, NOT JUST LEVEL One caliber reads September hike 49.4% with hold 50.6%, DOWN from 57% a week earlier; another read 66% on August 31; the brief's carried set is ~57% after the payrolls print. Listed in parallel. The October strip is missing for a NINTH edition
⚑ NEXT WEEK IS DENSE ON THE CHINA SIDE — FOUR PRINTS IN FOUR DAYS Sept 7 FX reserves; Sept 8 trade balance and import/export y/y; Sept 9 CPI (expected +0.9% y/y) and PPI (expected +3.2%); Sept 10 M0/M1/M2, TSF and new loans (expected ~RMB 500 billion). Export data on the 8th is the one that touches aluminium directly
⚑ METHOD NOTE ON THIS EDITION'S CENTRAL CLAIM The reconciliation was computed before it was written: 852−15, 837−22 and 852−37 were each checked against SMM's own published change lines and all three close exactly. The claim that the spread was a date error is arithmetic, not narrative (derivation)

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与本期性质

  • 本期写于 9月6日(周日)上午。自上期成稿以来没有任何交易所开市:沪市两个盘面休市至 9月7日(周一)日盘,伦敦休市至周一。因此本节中的每一个价格、均线、分位与持仓数字,都是 9月4日的数值原样沿用,并在下文逐条标注为「沿用」。
  • ⚑ 本期的新增内容全部为非价格类:SMM 9月3日(周四)社会库存印记(连续两期未取得后于隔夜恢复,并触发本简报上期所执行下调的撤销);SMM 9月2日与 9月3日的三地铝锭日度序列与两地铝棒日度序列;SMM 8月27日的分区域明细与周度出库量;对伦敦 9月3日均线的独立再验证(直接以 Westmetall 自身公布行复算);9月4日上期所铝各合约的完整开高低收与结算表(含 AL2702),取自交易所文件的第三方镜像;9月4日美国收盘的第四条宏观口径;四条氧化铝、铝土矿与俄铝的供给端新增;两条贸易政策新增;以及下周中国数据日历。
  • ⊘ 未取得:Westmetall 的 9月4日伦铝现货与三个月结算行,连续第三期未发布——本期仍无法计算任何新的精确伦敦均线,9月3日的一组再次被沿用为最后一组精确值;9月4日与** 9月7日的 LME 库存,因此 245,975 吨已滞后两个交易日;上期所周五周度库存与仓单印记;SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分区域成交升贴水、出货与采购情绪指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价(仍需登录——氧化铝的产业确认一项连续第六期为「无法检验」而非「未通过」);上海华通、上海物贸与中国宏桥现货口径;以及 10 月联邦基金利率条——连续第九期缺失。**

⊘ 沪铝:无新交易,全部沿用

  • 沿用:AL2610(主力)开 24,475,高 24,510,低 24,270,收 24,290,结算 24,375,前结算 24,275;收盘对收盘 −80(−0.33%),较前结算 +15;成交 151,835 手(−33.9%),持仓 254,755 手(−2,092)。
  • 沿用:24,290 正是 8月12日的收盘价,也正是被称作「二十日收盘区间顶部」并在 9月3日被上穿 80 元的那个数字。全日自最高回落 220 元,自高至低 240 元。
  • ⚑ 本期新增的合约明细(取自交易所文件镜像,上期未载开高低与结算):AL2609 开 24,425、高 24,475、低 24,280、收 24,305、结算 24,340、成交 9,205、持仓 30,035;AL2611 开 24,455、高 24,500、低 24,270、收 24,280、结算 24,365、成交 57,047、持仓 173,887;AL2612 开 24,420、高 24,465、低 24,225、收 24,235、结算 24,315、成交 16,300、持仓 69,910;AL2701 开 24,400、高 24,400、低 24,175、收 24,180、结算 24,250、成交 5,253、持仓 43,937。
  • ⚑ 并且新增了上期完全未载的一个合约:AL2702 收 24,160(+60),结算 24,230,成交 2,420,持仓 17,360。在一个主力下跌 80 元的交易日里,AL2702 是全板收盘涨幅最大的合约——这与 AL2611 增仓 7,757 手所指的方向是同一个方向(此为推算)。
  • 沿用:铝品种合计成交 244,604 手,合计持仓 617,604 手(+2,553)。上列六个合约持仓合计 589,884 手,余额 27,720 手分布于 2703–2708 合约。

⊘ 均线与分位:全部为 9月4日数值,沿用

  • 沿用:MA5 24,189.00、MA10 23,996.50、MA20 23,981.75、MA30 23,859.50、MA40 23,693.38、MA60 23,576.67。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 101.00、293.50、308.25、430.50、596.62、713.33 元,为连续第五个交易日站上全带;六条同时上行,MA60 连续第二日上行(+1.75)。
  • 沿用:MA5 的守住幅度已由 255.00 塌至 101.00,快线是唯一处于射程内的一条;20 日收盘分位 89.7%,60 日 95.8%(均由 100.0% 退下)。
  • 沿用:氧化铝 AO2610 收 2,757(+32,+1.17%),站上全部六条均线;AD2610 收 23,545(−90),亦站上全部六条。
  • 沿用:9月4日夜盘 AL2610 开 24,240、高 24,355、低 24,200、末价 24,320、均价 24,307,成交 52,304 手;AO2610 夜盘末价 2,760;AD2610 夜盘末价 23,555。

⊘ 伦铝:连续第三期空白,但均线被独立再验证

  • ⊘ Westmetall 的最新一行仍然是 9月3日:现货结算 3,303.00 美元、三个月 3,303.50 美元、库存 245,975 吨。9月4日行截至本期写稿时仍未发布,为连续第三期。
  • ⚑ 方法(本期新增的一项验证):本简报以 Westmetall 自身公布的十行收盘,对沿用中的伦敦均线作了独立再算——MA5 由 9月3日、9月2日、9月1日、8月28日、8月27日五行得 3,250.80 美元,分毫不差;MA10 再加 8月26日、8月25日、8月24日、8月21日、8月20日五行得 3,229.40 美元,亦分毫不差。因此被沿用的这一组伦敦均线,其可靠性在本期得到了独立确认(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 9月4日唯一的伦敦口径仍为 TradingEconomics,本期在其自身页面上确认为 **3,292.50 美元(−27.00,−0.81%;月度 +1.32%,年度 +26.34%)——上期所载的 3,292.65 变体在源站上收敛为 3,292.50。该口径不是结算价,不与 Westmetall 调和,不用于计算任何均线或分位。**
  • ⊘ 另有两条非结算零售口径出现并列载入、不作调和:一条指示性报价 3,280.60 美元,一条 3,317.50 美元。
  • ⚑⊘ 沪伦比价,两条并列(此为推算):以最后一组精确现货结算 3,303.00 美元计,24,290 ÷ 3,303.00 = **7.3539;以 TradingEconomics 的 3,292.50 美元计 = 7.3774。两者相差 0.0235,来源于口径而非市场。**
  • ⊘ 9月4日与 9月7日的 LME 库存均未取得。245,975 吨(9月3日,被路透与 ING 称为 1990 年以来最低)现已连续两个交易日只被沿用、未被确认。0.50 美元的 contango 亦无更新。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⊘ 现货价格:无新交易日,9月4日一组全部沿用

  • 沿用:上海现货 24,360(+20,区间 24,340–24,380);长江 24,360(+20);中原 24,360(+20);南海(佛山)24,810(−40,区间 24,760–24,860);广东南储 24,520(−30,区间 24,490–24,550);中铝华东 24,360(+10)、华南 24,520(−30)、西南 24,370(持平)、华中 24,210(持平)。
  • 沿用:基差 **+70 升水(现货 24,360 对 AL2610 收盘 24,290),由 9月3日的 −30 贴水翻转,单日摆动 100 点,为 8月13日以来第一次现货升水,且是在盘面下跌 80 元的一天里完成的。**
  • 沿用:三条华南价差连续第二日收窄(南海−上海 450、南储−上海 160、中铝华南−华东 160),华南结构性偏紧已被正式记为消退。
  • ⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分区域成交升贴水连续第六期需登录,未取得。

⚑⊘ 氧化铝与铝合金:价格沿用,但产业消息本期为净偏空

  • 沿用:AO2610 收 2,757、结算 2,748、成交 219,656 手(+49.0%)、持仓 113,727 手(−14,117,连续第六次下降);AO2701 持仓 150,947 手(+5,658),已超过主力。
  • ⊘ 本期新增(偏空一):亚洲上半年氧化铝出口 705 万吨,同比 **+27.36%,金额 27.6 亿美元;并有口径称下半年 800 万吨可及。这是一条量级明确的海外氧化铝供给宽松证据。**
  • ⊘ 本期新增(偏空二):有周度行业口径称中国氧化铝现货价格在库存回升、产量维持高位的组合下继续走低,并把中国氧化铝运行产能记作约 **9,900 万吨/年。⊘ 该数字与本简报所载的 9,590 万吨/年(建成 12,095 万吨)不一致,两条并列、不作调和;但无论取哪一条,闲置产能的规模都远大于远期账本上被削减的合计规模。**
  • ⊘ 本期新增(偏空三):进口铝土矿到港量近期走增,原因是几内亚矿端面临政策不确定性与传统雨季发运受阻的双重压力,矿商正集中在窗口期抢运,短期到港量阶段性放大。⊘ 这一条直接作用于本简报近几期反复记录的「矿石成本底在抬升」——抢运在短期方向上是相反的(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 另有一条铝土矿预测口径:澳矿约 39 美元/吨、几内亚 34–46 美元/吨。⊘ 该口径与本简报沿用的几内亚现货 72–73 美元/干吨(到岸)计价基础不同,并列载入,明确不作调和。
  • ⚑ 本期新增(偏多,成本端):9 月氟化铝招标价格由标杆企业上调落地,氟化铝维持强势。这与已在账上的 9 月预焙阳极 5,730 元/吨现货构成同向的电解成本抬升(此为解读)。
  • ⚑⊘ 本期新增:俄铝被报道正寻求克里姆林宫援助,四家铝土矿与氧化铝厂面临封存风险,合计年度亏损约 **8 亿美元。⚑ 若执行,对氧化铝成本底偏多;⊘ 但与账上已有的 210 万吨封存计划一样,目前仍为提议而非执行,本简报记为未执行。**
  • ⚑⊘ 铝合金:有行业口径称中国废铝价格稳中偏强、ADC12 连续数周上涨,但原铝涨幅快于废铝。这与 9月4日 AD−AL 日盘价差由 735 走阔至 745 是同向的(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ ADC12 四条口径仍不一致,本期再增一条 SMM 口径 23,950:23,900(沿用)、SMM 23,950、长江现货铝合金 24,000、长江综合华东 23,615、佛山主流 23,500–23,800;A356.2 报 24,400。全部并列。

三 · 库存

⚑⚑ 本期唯一发生变化的栏目,而且是决定性的变化

  • ⚑⚑ SMM 周四社会库存印记已取得:9月3日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 **81.5 万吨(815,000 吨),较周一减少 2.2 万吨,较上周四减少 3.7 万吨。**
  • ⚑⚑ 三条「互不吻合的口径」在本期被证明根本不是三条口径,而是三个日期:852,000 吨是 8月27日(周四),837,000 吨是 8月31日(周一),815,000 吨是 9月3日(周四)。三条恒等式全部精确闭合(此为推算):
    • 852,000 − 15,000 = 837,000(SMM 8月31日自述「较周四减少 1.5 万吨」)✓
    • 837,000 − 22,000 = 815,000(SMM 9月3日自述「较周一减少 2.2 万吨」)✓
    • 852,000 − 37,000 = 815,000(SMM 9月3日自述「较上周四减少 3.7 万吨」)✓
  • ⚑ 三条全部零误差闭合,不存在任何四舍五入缺口。因此上期所记的 43,000 吨「极差」是本简报的一次日期对齐错误,而不是数据源的冲突。
  • ⚑⚑ 撤销声明:上期依据事先写下的承诺,把 837,000 吨口径下调为「低可信度」并撤下其国内首要口径地位。该下调的触发条件是数据缺席;数据现已到达,并且反过来证实了那个数字。本简报据此撤销该下调,恢复 SMM 为国内首要口径。以自己的标准执行下调,就必须以同样的标准执行撤销(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 唯一真实存留的口径分歧只有一条:钢联 809,000 吨(8月31日)对 SMM 837,000 吨(同日),相差 28,000 吨,其中钢联口径含约 107,000 吨权属不清货源。这一条是真实的口径差异,未被本期化解,两条继续并列。

⚑⚑ 解读:被恢复的序列,说出了与上期完全相反的话

  • ⊘ 上期依据月度总量作出的判断是:「去库在减速——8 月的 106,000 吨只有 7 月 170,000 吨的约六成」。在当时可得的证据下,这是一个公允的读法,并且是库存栏当时唯一的偏空条目。
  • ⚑⚑ 9 月的第一份印记证伪了它(此为推算):
    • 8 月周均:106,000 吨 ÷ 31 天 × 7 = 约 **23,935 吨/周。**
    • 7 月周均:170,000 吨 ÷ 31 天 × 7 = 约 **38,387 吨/周。**
    • 8月27日→9月3日实际:37,000 吨/周。
    • 即:为 8 月周均的 **1.55 倍,为 7 月周均的 96%。**
  • ⚑ 结论是明确的:去库并未在进入 9 月后继续减速,而是在 9 月的第一周重新加速,回到了大致相当于 7 月的速度。上期的减速读法被本期的一手数据取代(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 累计口径同步刷新:自 7 月初 113 万吨阶段高点至 815,000 吨,累计去库 **315,000 吨(上期同一算法对 850,000 吨得 278,000 吨)。一份印记把这条累计线延长了 37,000 吨。**

⚑ 日度序列独立同向,而且节奏也在加快

  • ⚑ SMM 三地铝锭日度:9月1日 659,500 吨 → 9月2日 651,500 吨(−8,000)→ 9月3日 641,000 吨(−10,500)。日度降幅是变大的,不是变小的。
  • ⚑ 9月3日分地:广东 143,000 吨(−1,500)、无锡 300,000 吨(−4,500)、巩义 198,000 吨(−4,500)。
  • ⚑ 覆盖度(此为推算):641,000 ÷ 815,000 = **78.7%。这不是一个窄样本在确认一个宽样本,而是宽样本本身的大部分在自我确认。**
  • ⚑ SMM 两地铝棒日度:9月2日 89,000 吨(+1,500;广东 65,000、无锡 24,000)→ 9月3日 89,000 吨(持平)。⊘ 铝棒未跟随铝锭去库,这一条应与下文的铝棒过剩并读。

⚑ 分区域明细与出库量:本期最有力的一条实物证据

  • ⚑ SMM 8月27日分区域:佛山 153,000 吨(五周累计 **−66,000 吨,升水 220 元/吨,被 SMM 称为最强市场);无锡 326,000 吨(贴水 20 元至平水);巩义 209,000 吨(五周累计 −35,000 吨,贴水 80–130 元,基本面最弱)。**
  • ⚑⚑ 周度出库量 **135,400 吨,环比 +12,200 吨,并被 SMM 称为「近四年同期高位」。这是本简报近期唯一一条数量性而非价格性的需求证据——出库量是金属实际离开仓库,不是从价格推断出来的(此为解读)。**
  • ⚑⊘ 一条条件性推算,方向相反,照录不隐:8月27日三地合计为 153,000 + 326,000 + 209,000 = **688,000 吨,对照 9月3日的 641,000 吨,三地一周减少 47,000 吨,而全国口径同期减少 37,000 吨——差额约 +10,000 吨意味着其余地区在累库。⊘ 但「佛山」与「广东」是否为同一口径无法确认,因此本条仅作标注,不作调和(此为推算)。**

⊘ 沿用与仍然缺失的部分

  • ⊘ LME 库存 245,975 吨(9月3日)已连续两个交易日只被沿用、未被确认。
  • ⊘ 上期所周五周度库存与仓单印记本期仍未取得。沿用:391,498 吨,注册仓单 245,510 吨(−28,691),第三方口径称其为连续第十一周下降、自 6月12日六年高点 528,885 吨累计 −137,387 吨;上期所氧化铝周度 323,736 吨(−38,827)。
  • 沿用(无新印记):保税区 116,000 吨(9月3日,上海 89,000 + 广东 27,000,周环比持平);氧化铝全国库存 727 万吨(9月3日,+8,000 吨);全国主流消费地铝棒 140,500 吨(8月31日);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨。

四 · 宏观因素

⊘ 无新交易日;本期只新增一条口径集与一份日历

  • 沿用:美国 8 月非农 162,000 人对预期 53,000 人(约三倍,高于彭博调查每一个估计值),失业率 4.1%,7 月由 −23,000 重述为 +21,000、6 月上修至 31,000;平均时薪环比 +0.3% 至 37.75 美元、同比仅 +3.1%(本周期最软)。
  • ⊘ 本期新增的第四条** 9月4日美国收盘口径(与已载三条并列,不作调和):标普 500 7,719(−0.38%)、道指 53,414(−0.51%)、纳指 26,507(−0.29%)、10 年期国债 4.789%(+0.34%)、美元指数 99.157(+0.25%)、黄金 4,429 美元/盎司(−1.14%)、VIX 14.53(+1.47%)。**
  • ⚑ 需要指出的是:股指三条、美元、10 年期四项与本简报已载口径基本吻合(标普 7,718/7,719、道指 53,413/53,414、纳指 26,506/26,507、美元 99.13/99.157/99.27、10 年 4.78–4.789%)。黄金则出现第四条口径 4,429 美元,与已载的 4,376.04 / 4,384.91 / 4,476.60 三条并列,方向一致向下、水平不一致。
  • ⊘⊘ 但原油一项发生了严重的口径断裂:本期口径给出布伦特 **88.88 美元(−0.03%)、WTI 83.11 美元(−0.11%);而本简报上期所载为布伦特 96.28 美元、WTI 91.31/91.48 美元,另有「WTI 跌破 90」的第三条。两组相差 7 至 8 美元/桶,没有任何来源对此作出调和。本简报并列载入并明确指出其不可调和,在此前提下不对油价方向作任何判断(此为解读)。**
  • ⊘ 联储定价的口径分歧本期由「水平不一致」升级为「方向不一致」:一条口径读 9 月加息 **49.4%、不变 50.6%,并称一周前为 57%(即下降);另一条在 8月31日读 66%;本简报沿用的一组为非农后约 57%(自约 50.5% 升至约 65% 后回落)。三条并列,不作调和;⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第九期缺失。**
  • ⚑ 下周中国数据日历(本期新增,为周一至周四的直接观察项):9月7日 8 月外汇储备;9月8日 8 月贸易差额与进出口同比;9月9日 8 月 CPI(市场预期同比升至 +0.9%)与 PPI(预期 +3.2%);9月10日 8 月 M0/M1/M2、社融与新增人民币贷款(预期约 5,000 亿元)。⚑ 其中 **9月8日的出口数据是唯一直接触及铝的一项——本简报已载 7 月中国铝材出口同比 +18.7%(此为解读)。**
  • ⊘ 沿用:加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名——与中国出口数据同日。

解读

  • ⊘ 宏观栏维持上期的「中性偏空」定性不变,本期没有新的方向性信息,只有口径的增加与分歧的扩大(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 需要诚实记录的一点:当同一个交易日的原油出现 7–8 美元的口径差、联储定价出现方向相反的两条读数时,本简报对宏观栏的分辨率是下降的。本期因此不在宏观栏作任何新的加权(此为解读)。
  • ⚑ 与之相对,本期的实物栏分辨率是上升的:一条恢复的周度序列、两条互相独立的日度序列、一条分区域五周明细、一条周度出库量。四类证据同向。本简报据此把本期的判断重心明确置于实物栏(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 国内供给与需求

  • 沿用:中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;《工业绿色低碳发展「十五五」规划》对电解铝产能天花板的具体处理仍未见细节。
  • 沿用:RatingDog 8 月制造业 PMI 51.5(六个月新高);国家统计局 8 月 49.8;铝加工行业 8 月综合 PMI 48.7%。
  • 沿用:周度开工率(截至 8月27日)——型材 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。本期无更新。
  • ⚑⚑ 本期最有力的需求证据由价格性升级为数量性:周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200,近四年同期高位)。此前几期本简报反复说明「需求证据是价格性的、而不是数量性的」,本期这一条补上了缺口(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 但同一期出现了方向相反的一条数量证据:有行业口径称铝棒过剩持续、加工费维持低位,库存比例环比下降但绝对库存仍处高位,需求恢复不明显。与之呼应的是 SMM 两地铝棒日度 9月3日 89,000 吨持平,未跟随铝锭去库。
  • ⚑⊘ 这两条必须并读(此为解读):铝锭去库 37,000 吨/周的一部分,是金属由铝锭仓库转移到了铝棒仓库,而不是全部进入了终端需求。本简报把铝锭去库作为核心偏多事实,就必须同时记录这条折扣。
  • ⊘ 贸易政策(本期新增,偏空):泰国对中国铝型材启动新出口商复审,申请企业适用临时保证金税率 **21.94%;其所依据的反倾销终裁于 2025年11月24日作出,税率区间 5.12%–21.94%,期限五年。⊘ 出口需求本就是本简报账上最弱的一栏,本条直接落在其上。**

⚑⊘ 海外与成本端:一多三空

  • ⚑ 偏多(成本):9 月氟化铝招标价上调落地;沿用 9 月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨;沿用中国铝业上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨、同比 −14.19%。
  • ⚑⊘ 俄铝寻求克里姆林宫援助,四家铝土矿与氧化铝厂面临封存风险,合计年亏约 8 亿美元——提议,未执行。
  • ⊘ 偏空一:亚洲上半年氧化铝出口 705 万吨(+27.36%,27.6 亿美元),下半年 800 万吨可及。
  • ⊘ 偏空二:中国氧化铝现货在库存回升、产量高位下继续走低;运行产能口径约 9,900 万吨/年(对照本简报沿用的 9,590 万吨/年,并列不调和)。
  • ⊘ 偏空三:几内亚矿商抢运,进口铝土矿到港量阶段性放大。
  • 转载(远期供给账本,本期无更新):俄铝 210 万吨氧化铝产能及 SUBR 铝土矿封存(提议);几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年(−25%);力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 因天然气一度降至 50%、后经临时码头协议恢复至满产;卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能;Alba 一至三号系列停产(占 19%);EGA Al Taweelah 已由 18% 回填至 25%。
  • 转载(偏空):日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比 −18% 至 −22%,本期无更新亦无反驳。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⊘ 无新交易日,9月4日成交与情绪沿用

  • 沿用 · 华东:上海现货 24,360(+20),基差 +70 升水;在盘面下跌 80 元的同时持货商上调报价 20 元且成交维持。出货意愿偏强(惜售),采购意愿偏强。
  • 沿用 · 华南:南海(佛山)24,810(−40)、南储 24,520(−30)、中铝华南 24,520(−30),三条口径绝对值下跌;出货意愿偏强而挺价意愿偏弱。
  • 沿用 · 华中:中铝华中 24,210(持平),连续第二日站上 24,000;西南 24,370(持平)。
  • ⚑ 本期可对上述判断作出的新增印证(此为解读):SMM 8月27日分区域明细显示佛山升水 220 元/吨、五周去库 66,000 吨,为最强市场;无锡贴水 20 元至平水;巩义贴水 80–130 元、基本面最弱。这一排序与 9月4日的价差结构(南海 > 南储 > 上海 > 中铝华中)方向一致,说明华南的绝对价格回落是从高位回落,而不是从弱势进一步走弱。
  • ⚑ SMM 对 9 月的结构判断(沿用并在本期得到日度数据支持):跨区流动将推动区域库存与升贴水再平衡——华南到货压力上升、升水自高位回落,华东出货后本地压力缓解、贴水收窄,三地价差趋于收敛。⚑ 9月4日三条华南价差同时收窄,正是该路径的第一步(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ SMM 的出货/采购情绪指数连续第六期未取得;上述判断依据价格、涨跌幅、基差、价差与库存行为推断,非 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑⚑ SMM 周四社会库存印记恢复发布:9月3日 815,000 吨,较周一 −22,000 吨,较上周四 −37,000 吨。
  • ⚑⚑ 三条恒等式全部零误差闭合(852−15=837、837−22=815、852−37=815),43,000 吨「极差」归零,国内库存序列恢复为一条内部自洽的高频序列。
  • ⚑⚑ 上期执行的可靠性下调被撤销;SMM 恢复为国内首要口径。
  • ⚑⚑ 去库重新加速:37,000 吨/周为 8 月周均(约 23,935 吨)的 1.55 倍、7 月周均(约 38,387 吨)的 96%;上期的「减速」读法被证伪。
  • ⚑ 自 7 月初 113 万吨阶段高点累计去库 315,000 吨(上期同法为 278,000 吨)。
  • ⚑ 日度序列独立同向且加速:三地 659,500 → 651,500(−8,000)→ 641,000(−10,500)。
  • ⚑ 三地覆盖度 78.7%,确认力度不属于窄样本。
  • ⚑ 周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200),近四年同期高位——本简报近期唯一一条数量性需求证据。
  • ⚑ 佛山五周去库 66,000 吨、升水 220 元/吨;巩义五周去库 35,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 沿用:基差 +70 升水,单日摆动 100 点,且在盘面下跌的一天里完成——8月13日以来第一次现货升水。
  • ⚑ 沿用:收盘高于全部六条均线(101.00–713.33 元),连续第五个交易日;六条同时上行,MA60 连续第二日上行。
  • ⚑ 沿用:周度收涨 370 元(+1.55%);结算价 24,375 较前结算 +100。
  • ⚑ 沿用:主力减仓 2,092 手而 AL2611 增仓 7,757 手、品种合计增仓 2,553 手——移仓而非离场。
  • ⚑ 新增印证:AL2702 收 24,160(+60),为 9月4日全板收盘涨幅最大的合约,与移仓读法同向。
  • ⚑ 沿用:氧化铝 2,757 为 47 个交易日最高收盘,日盘首次六守其六;结算 2,748 高于成本口径一 30 元;AO2701 持仓已超过主力。
  • ⚑ 沿用:AD2610 虽跌 90 元仍连续第五日六守其六。
  • ⚑ 新增:9 月氟化铝招标价上调,电解成本继续抬升。
  • ⚑ 新增(条件性):俄铝四厂面临封存、合计年亏约 8 亿美元——若执行则氧化铝成本底偏多。
  • ⚑ 新增:ADC12 连续数周上涨(虽落后原铝)。
  • ⚑ 方法性:伦敦 MA5(3,250.80)与 MA10(3,229.40)以 Westmetall 自身行独立复算,分毫不差,沿用组的可靠性得到确认。
  • ⚑ 沿用:LME 库存 245,975 吨为 1990 年以来最低;上期所周度被第三方称为连续第十一周下降;保税区周环比持平,外部资源未回流。
  • ⚑ 沿用:中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;中国铝业上半年氧化铝产量同比 −14.19%。
  • ⚑ 沿用:几内亚铝土矿现货 72–73 美元/干吨、9 月长协持平、海运费近 40 美元。
  • ⚑ 沿用:美国 8 月平均时薪同比仅 +3.1%,为本周期最软;三倍于预期的非农只买到约 5–15 个百分点的加息定价。
  • ⚑ SMM 预计 9 月上半月去库延续,并预期三地价差收敛。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘⊘ 伦敦连续第三期空白:Westmetall 9月4日结算行仍未发布,本期仍无新的精确伦敦均线。
  • ⊘⊘ LME 库存 9月4日与 9月7日均未取得,245,975 吨已滞后两个交易日,由「确认」退化为「沿用」。
  • ⊘ 唯一的 9月4日伦敦口径 3,292.50 美元(−0.81%)方向向下,且与结算口径不可调和;另有 3,280.60 与 3,317.50 两条零售口径并列,伦敦价格本期共有三条互不吻合的读数。
  • ⊘ 新增(贸易):泰国对中国铝型材启动新出口商复审,临时保证金 21.94%;所依据终裁税率 5.12%–21.94%、期限五年。
  • ⊘ 沿用并临近:加拿大 9月8日钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名。
  • ⊘ 新增(氧化铝供给一):亚洲上半年氧化铝出口 705 万吨,同比 +27.36%,下半年 800 万吨可及。
  • ⊘ 新增(氧化铝供给二):中国氧化铝现货在库存回升、产量高位下走低;运行产能口径约 9,900 万吨/年,闲置规模远大于远期削减合计。
  • ⊘ 新增(铝土矿):几内亚矿商抢运发货,进口到港量阶段性放大,短期削弱矿石成本底。
  • ⊘ 新增(下游):铝棒过剩持续、加工费维持低位、绝对库存仍高;SMM 两地铝棒 9月3日 89,000 吨持平,未跟随铝锭去库——铝锭去库的一部分是仓库间转移而非终端消化。
  • ⊘ 存留分歧:钢联 809,000 吨对 SMM 837,000 吨(同为 8月31日),相差 28,000 吨,含约 107,000 吨权属不清货源——本期未被化解。
  • ⊘ 条件性推算(反向):8月27日三地 688,000 吨对 9月3日 641,000 吨,三地一周减 47,000 吨而全国减 37,000 吨,隐含其余地区累库约 10,000 吨(佛山/广东口径存疑,不作调和)。
  • ⊘ 沿用:收盘 24,290 正好落回 8月12日收盘价,前一交易日的清关被完整交回;24,490 与 24,510 已确认为压力;上期两分支检验记为「不确定」。
  • ⊘ 沿用:MA5 守住幅度已由 255.00 塌至 101.00;20 日与 60 日收盘分位由 100.0%/100.0% 退至 89.7%/95.8%。
  • ⊘ 沿用:成交 151,835 手较前一日六十日纪录 −33.9%,承接量能未续。
  • ⊘ 沿用:氧化铝持仓 −14,117 手为连续第六次下降,自 8月27日累计 −167,223 手(−59.5%);品种合计 −10,329 手,确有真实离场。
  • ⊘ 沿用:华南三条现货口径绝对值下跌,三条价差连续第二日收窄,华南结构性偏紧已记为消退。
  • ⊘ 沿用:美国 8 月非农 162,000 人(三倍于预期);美元收复 99;黄金四条口径同步下跌;美股交回 8月4日以来最佳单日;宏观栏维持「中性偏空」。
  • ⊘ 联储定价口径由水平分歧升级为方向分歧(49.4% 且称一周前 57%,对照 66% 与约 57% 两条);10 月联邦基金利率条连续第九期缺失。
  • ⊘⊘ 原油出现 7–8 美元/桶的口径断裂(布伦特 88.88 对 96.28;WTI 83.11 对 91.31/91.48),本期对油价方向不作判断,宏观分辨率下降。
  • ⊘ 上期所周度库存与仓单印记本期仍未取得;SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分区域升贴水、情绪指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价连续第六期需登录。
  • ⊘ 沿用:日本四季度升水 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%)仍为账上最硬的偏空实物数据。
  • ⊘ 沿用:AD−AL 日盘价差由 735 走阔至 745;AD2611 持仓已是 AD2610 的三倍。

八 · 一句话观点

本期没有任何交易所开市,因此所有价格均为 9月4日原样沿用,而全部新增内容落在同一栏——恰好是本简报上一期亲手下调的那一栏:SMM 的周四社会库存印记在连续两期缺席之后于隔夜恢复,9月3日 815,000 吨,较周一减少 22,000 吨、较上周四减少 37,000 吨;关于它,首先要说的不是「偏多」,而是「它具有解释力」——上期记录了 852,000、837,000、809,000 三条口径,描述了一个 43,000 吨的极差,把中间那条下调为低可信度并撤下其首要地位,而其中两条从来就不是互相竞争的口径:852,000 是 8月27日周四,837,000 是 8月31日周一,815,000 是 9月3日周四,并且 SMM 自己公布的三条变动线全部零误差闭合——852 减 15 等于 837、837 减 22 等于 815、852 减 37 等于 815,没有任何四舍五入缺口,因此那个「极差」是本简报的一次日期对齐错误,而不是数据源的冲突;一个以「数据缺席」为触发条件的下调,在数据到达并反过来证实了该数字之后,唯一诚实的处理就是撤销,本期予以撤销,并恢复 SMM 为国内首要口径,真实存留的口径分歧只剩一条,即钢联 809,000 吨对 SMM 837,000 吨这对同日数字之间 28,000 吨的差额,其中约 107,000 吨为权属不清货源,该条不被本期化解,两者继续并列;接着,被恢复的序列说出了与上期完全相反的话——上期仅凭月度总量判断「去库在减速,8 月的 106,000 吨只有 7 月 170,000 吨的六成」,这在当时是公允的,也是库存栏当时唯一的偏空条目,而 9 月的第一份印记把它证伪了:37,000 吨的周度实绩,是 8 月周均约 23,935 吨的 1.55 倍,是 7 月周均约 38,387 吨的 96%,去库不但没有继续减速,反而在 9 月第一周重新加速回到大致相当于 7 月的速度,自 7 月初 113 万吨阶段高点起的累计去库同步由 278,000 吨延长至 315,000 吨;日度序列以另一种节奏独立地说了同一件事,三地合计 659,500 → 651,500 → 641,000,日度降幅由 8,000 扩大到 10,500,而这三地占全国口径的 78.7%,因此这不是窄样本在确认宽样本,而是宽样本的大部分在自我确认;更进一步,SMM 的分区域明细补上了本简报近几期一直承认自己缺少的那一类证据——佛山五周去库 66,000 吨、升水 220 元/吨,巩义五周去库 35,000 吨,而周度出库量 135,400 吨环比增加 12,200 吨并被称为近四年同期高位,出库量是金属实际离开仓库,是数量性而非价格性的需求证据,此前几期反复出现的「需求证据只是价格性的」这一自我限定,在本期第一次被补上;与之相反的方向也必须照录:铝棒过剩持续、加工费维持低位、绝对库存仍高,而 SMM 两地铝棒 9月3日 89,000 吨持平未跟随铝锭去库,这意味着 37,000 吨中的一部分是金属由铝锭仓库转移到了铝棒仓库,而不是全部进入终端消化,一份把铝锭去库当作核心偏多事实的简报必须同时记录这条折扣;此外三条线走坏:伦敦连续第三期空白,Westmetall 的 9月4日结算行仍未发布,因此仍无新的精确伦敦均线,更要紧的是 9月4日与 9月7日的库存均未取得,那条最硬的偏多数据——245,975 吨、1990 年以来最低——已经连续两个交易日只被沿用而未被确认,本期唯一的方法性补偿是以 Westmetall 自身的十行收盘对沿用中的伦敦均线作了独立复算,MA5 得 3,250.80、MA10 得 3,229.40,分毫不差,至少证明被沿用的这一组是可靠的;贸易端新增了一条落在最弱栏目上的利空,泰国对中国铝型材启动新出口商复审、临时保证金 21.94%,而加拿大由 25% 升至 50% 的反制关税将在 9月8日生效,与中国 8 月出口数据同日;氧化铝的供给账本则在三处同时转空,亚洲上半年出口 705 万吨同比增长 27.36% 且下半年 800 万吨可及,中国氧化铝现货在库存回升与产量高位下继续走低、运行产能有约 9,900 万吨/年的口径,以及几内亚矿商为规避政策与雨季风险集中抢运导致进口铝土矿到港量阶段性放大——最后这一条恰好作用在本简报近几期反复记录的「矿石成本底在抬升」之上,短期方向相反;俄铝寻求援助、四厂面临封存、合计年亏约 8 亿美元指向另一边,但与账上已有的 210 万吨计划一样仍是提议而非执行;宏观栏本期没有任何新的方向性信息,只有口径的增加与分歧的扩大,同一个交易日的原油出现了 7 至 8 美元的断裂(布伦特 88.88 对 96.28、WTI 83.11 对 91.31),联储定价的分歧则由水平不一致升级为方向不一致(一条读 49.4% 并称一周前为 57%,另一条 8月31日读 66%,本简报沿用的一组约 57%),因此本期对宏观栏既不加权也不改变其「中性偏空」的定性,并明确记录本期宏观分辨率是下降的;综上,在一个没有价格的编期里,发生变化的是置信度而非价位:多头恢复了他们前一期失去的唯一一样东西——一条可靠、高频、内部自洽的国内库存序列——并且是以最强的形式恢复的,因为被恢复的序列显示的是加速而非上期推断的减速,而且周度、日度与出库量三类互相独立的证据同向;空头则拿到了第三期空白的伦敦、一条滞后两日的旗舰数据、一条新的关税复审、三条氧化铝供给利空,以及一个正在吸收部分去库的铝棒市场;上一期写下的判断是多头的立足点已由金融栏迁移到实物栏,本期没有推翻这一判断,而是提高了作出该判断所依据的那一栏的分辨率(此为解读)。

九 · 周一(9月7日)重开关注清单

  • ⚑ 第一位仍然是价位,而且判别位与上期完全相同:24,320 是起点,24,290 是第一道判别,24,189.00 是第二道。 9月4日夜盘末价 24,320 高于日盘收盘 30 元,因此周一是从 24,320 而不是 24,290 开始的。若日盘站稳 24,290 并收在 24,320 之上,则 9月4日的回踩应被归类为对已清关位置的确认性回踩;若跌破 24,290 并进一步失守 MA5(24,189.00,守住幅度仅剩 101.00),则价格回到自身均线带之内,自 8月3日起的上行结构需要被重新评估。上期未落定的两分支检验(24,390 / 24,275)继续有效,且持仓一项应以品种合计而非主力为第一口径。
  • ⚑⚑ 本期最重要的续验:9月7日(周一)的 SMM 库存印记能否落在 800,000 吨附近或以下。 本期的核心论断是「去库在 9 月第一周重新加速至 1.55 倍于 8 月的速度」。该论断建立在一个周度观测之上。周一的周初印记是它的第一次续验:若落在 800,000–806,000 吨区间(即较 9月3日再减 9,000–15,000 吨,对应周末常见降幅),则加速被确认为序列;若持平或回升至 820,000 吨以上,则本期的加速读法应被降格为单周波动,本简报将明确写下该降格。同时观察三地日度是否延续 −8,000 至 −10,500 的节奏。
  • ⚑⚑ 伦敦本期已欠三天:Westmetall 的 9月4日结算行,以及 9月4日与 9月7日两天的库存。 若周一仍不发布,则本简报所载最硬的偏多数据将滞后三个交易日,届时本简报将把「LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低」由当期事实降格为历史引用,并在下期明确标注该降格——这是一条事先写下的承诺,与上期对国内库存所作的承诺同类。同时观察:9月4日现货结算是否落在 3,292.50 美元附近(若是,伦铝仍高于全部六条均线,六守其六延续);0.50 美元的 contango 是走阔还是重回 backwardation。
  • ⚑ 基差能否守住升水,仍然是实物栏最强证据能否成立的唯一检验,判别位是 0 与 −20。 9月4日的 +70 升水只有一个交易日的寿命。周一若现货维持在盘面之上(基差 ≥ 0),则「下游在更高价位接货」由单日事件升级为序列,与本期恢复的库存序列构成互证;若基差退回 −20 以外,则该升水应被重新归类为周五盘面下跌造成的被动错位。同时观察华南三条口径(南海 24,810、南储 24,520、中铝华南 24,520)能否止跌,以及 SMM 所预期的「三地价差收敛」是否延续。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝:价格腿与产业腿在本期首次出现方向背离,判别位是 2,738.68、2,718 与持仓。 盘面价格 2,757 已在成本之上并六守其六,但本期新增的三条产业消息(亚洲出口 +27.36%、中国现货走低且库存回升、几内亚抢运推高到港)全部指向供给宽松。周一若收在 MA60(2,738.68)之上且持仓终止六连降,则连续三期被劈成两半的检验以多头方式收敛;若跌回成本口径一(2,718)之下且持仓第七次下降,则本期的产业消息应被认定为已经开始在盘面上兑现。同时留意 AO2701 是否继续大于 AO2610 的持仓——若巩固,则「迁移而非离场」得到第二次确认。
  • ⚑ 9月8日是本周的双事件日:中国 8 月进出口数据与加拿大关税由 25% 升至 50% 同日落地。 中国 7 月铝材出口同比 +18.7% 已在账上,8 月数据是检验该势头是否延续的直接证据;而加拿大的税率翻倍点名铝棒,恰好落在本期新增的「铝棒过剩、加工费低位」之上。两者叠加于本简报最弱的出口需求栏,应作为一组而非两条来观察。此外 9月9日 CPI(预期 +0.9%)与 PPI(预期 +3.2%)、9月10日社融与新增贷款(预期约 5,000 亿元)构成周内后半段的宏观节奏。
  • ⚑ 上期所周度库存与仓单印记应在周内补发,以及 SMM 情绪指数与中铝五地氧化铝报价能否恢复。 上一印记为 391,498 吨、注册仓单 245,510 吨,被第三方称为连续第十一周下降。若第十二周确认,则国内去库的时间跨度证据由社会库存单一来源扩展到交易所仓单,本期恢复的社会库存序列将获得第二个独立支点。⊘ 中铝五地报价与 SMM 氧化铝指数已连续第六期需登录,氧化铝的产业确认一项仍为「无法检验」而非「未通过」,本简报将继续如实标注,不以推断替代。

免责声明

  • 本简报仅供内部晨会参考,所载数据来源于上海期货交易所公开日度文件及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、路透、CNBC、彭博、SMM(上海有色网)、钢联(我的钢铁网)、世铝网、AL Circle 及公开企业公告等公开渠道。标注「⚑ / ⊘」的为事实性数据,标注「此为解读 / 此为推算」的为本简报的判断或计算,两者已在正文中明确区分。多来源口径不一致者一律并列载入,不作调和。本期因无交易所开市,所有价格类数据均为沿用并已逐条标注。本简报不构成任何投资建议,不对据此作出的任何决策承担责任。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and the nature of this edition

  • Written the morning of Sunday, September 6. NO exchange has traded since the prior edition was written: both Chinese boards are shut until the Monday September 7 day session and London is shut until Monday. Every price, moving average, percentile and open-interest figure in this section is therefore the September 4 value carried forward unchanged, and each is labelled as carried.
  • ⚑ Everything NEW in this edition is non-price: SMM’s September 3 (Thursday) social-inventory print, which became retrievable overnight after two consecutive failures and which triggers the REVERSAL of the downgrade executed one edition ago; SMM’s September 2 and 3 three-region daily ingot series and the matching two-region billet series; SMM’s August 27 regional breakdown and weekly warehouse-withdrawal figure; an independent re-verification of the carried London averages against Westmetall’s own published rows; the full September 4 SHFE aluminium open/high/low/settlement table for the non-main contracts, including AL2702, from a third-party mirror of the exchange file; a fourth macro caliber set for the September 4 US close; four new supply-side items; two new trade-policy items; and next week’s China data calendar.
  • ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: Westmetall’s September 4 LME cash and 3-month settlement row, unpublished for a THIRD consecutive edition — so still no new exact London average, and the September 3 set is carried again as the last exact one; the September 4 AND September 7 LME stock figures, so 245,975 mt is now TWO trading days stale; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; SMM’s absolute A00, its regional transaction premia, its shipment and purchasing sentiment indices, its alumina index and Chalco’s five regional alumina listings (login-walled — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test is UNTESTABLE for a SIXTH consecutive edition rather than failed); the Shanghai Huatong, Shanghai Wumao and China Hongqiao spot calibers; and the October fed funds strip, absent for a NINTH consecutive edition.

⊘ SHFE: nothing traded — the whole board is carried

  • CARRIED: AL2610 (main contract) open 24,475, high 24,510, low 24,270, close 24,290, settlement 24,375, prior settlement 24,275. Close-to-close −80 (−0.33%); against the prior settlement +15. Volume 151,835 (−33.9%); OI 254,755 (−2,092).
  • CARRIED: 24,290 IS the August 12 close and IS the twenty-session close top that September 3 cleared by 80. The session fell 220 from its high and 240 from high to low.
  • ⚑ NEW CONTRACT DETAIL this edition (from a mirror of the exchange file; the prior edition carried closes and OI but not ranges or settlements): AL2609 open 24,425, high 24,475, low 24,280, close 24,305, settlement 24,340, volume 9,205, OI 30,035; AL2611 open 24,455, high 24,500, low 24,270, close 24,280, settlement 24,365, volume 57,047, OI 173,887; AL2612 open 24,420, high 24,465, low 24,225, close 24,235, settlement 24,315, volume 16,300, OI 69,910; AL2701 open 24,400, high 24,400, low 24,175, close 24,180, settlement 24,250, volume 5,253, OI 43,937.
  • ⚑ And a contract the prior edition did not carry at all: AL2702 closed 24,160, **+60, settlement 24,230, volume 2,420, OI 17,360. On a trading day when the main contract fell 80, AL2702 posted the LARGEST close-basis gain on the aluminium board — which points the same way as AL2611’s 7,757-lot build (derivation).**
  • CARRIED: complex volume 244,604; complex OI 617,604 (+2,553). The six contracts listed above sum to 589,884 lots of open interest; the residual 27,720 sits in the 2703–2708 contracts.

⊘ Averages and percentiles: September 4 values, carried

  • CARRIED: MA5 24,189.00, MA10 23,996.50, MA20 23,981.75, MA30 23,859.50, MA40 23,693.38, MA60 23,576.67. Above all six by 101.00, 293.50, 308.25, 430.50, 596.62 and 713.33 — a fifth consecutive session above the whole band, with all six still rising and MA60 up 1.75 for a second session.
  • CARRIED: the MA5 clearance has collapsed from 255.00 to 101.00 and is the only average within reach; the 20-session close percentile reads 89.7% and the 60-session 95.8%, both down from 100.0%.
  • CARRIED: alumina AO2610 closed 2,757 (+32, +1.17%), above all six of its averages; AD2610 closed 23,545 (−90), also above all six.
  • CARRIED: the September 4 night session — AL2610 open 24,240, high 24,355, low 24,200, last 24,320, VWAP 24,307, volume 52,304; AO2610 last 2,760; AD2610 last 23,555.

⊘ London: blank for a third edition — but the averages were independently re-verified

  • ⊘ Westmetall’s newest row is STILL September 3: cash settlement $3,303.00, 3-month $3,303.50, stock 245,975 mt. The September 4 row remains unpublished as of writing, for a third consecutive edition.
  • ⚑ METHOD — a verification new to this edition: the carried London averages were re-derived directly from Westmetall’s own ten published closes. MA5 from September 3, 2 and 1 plus August 28 and 27 gives **$3,250.80 exactly; MA10 adding August 26, 25, 24, 21 and 20 gives $3,229.40 exactly. Both reproduce the published figures with no rounding gap, so the carried London set is independently sound (derivation).**
  • ⊘ The only September 4 London caliber is still TradingEconomics, confirmed this edition on the source’s own page at **$3,292.50 (−$27.00, −0.81%; monthly +1.32%, yearly +26.34%) — the prior edition’s $3,292.65 variant resolves to $3,292.50 at source. It is NOT a settlement, is NOT reconciled with Westmetall, and is used to compute NO average or percentile.**
  • ⊘ Two further non-settlement retail calibers appear and are listed without reconciliation: an indicative $3,280.60 and a $3,317.50 quote. London therefore carries THREE mutually inconsistent September readings this edition.
  • ⚑⊘ THE RATIO, ON BOTH CALIBERS (derivation): against the last EXACT cash settlement of $3,303.00, 24,290 ÷ 3,303.00 = **7.3539. Against TradingEconomics’ $3,292.50 = 7.3774. The 0.0235 difference is caliber, not market.**
  • ⊘ Neither the September 4 nor the September 7 LME stock figure was retrievable. 245,975 mt at September 3 — Reuters’ and ING’s “lowest since 1990” — has now been carried without confirmation for TWO trading days. The $0.50 contango is likewise unupdated.

⊘ Spot: no new trading day — the September 4 set is carried in full

  • CARRIED: Shanghai spot 24,360 (+20, range 24,340–24,380); Changjiang 24,360 (+20); Zhongyuan 24,360 (+20); Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40, range 24,760–24,860); Guangdong Nanchu 24,520 (−30, range 24,490–24,550); Chalco East 24,360 (+10), South 24,520 (−30), Southwest 24,370 (flat), Central 24,210 (flat).
  • CARRIED: the basis is a **+70 PREMIUM (spot 24,360 against AL2610’s 24,290), flipped from a 30 discount — a hundred-point swing, the first spot premium since August 13, and achieved on a day the board fell 80.**
  • CARRIED: all three South China spreads narrowed for a second session (Nanhai−Shanghai 450, Nanchu−Shanghai 160, Chalco South−East 160), and South China tightness is formally recorded as faded.
  • ⊘ SMM’s absolute A00 quotation and its regional transaction premia are login-walled for a sixth consecutive edition.

⚑⊘ Alumina and alloy: prices carried, but the industry news is net BEARISH this edition

  • CARRIED: AO2610 close 2,757, settlement 2,748, volume 219,656 (+49.0%), OI 113,727 (−14,117, a sixth consecutive decline); AO2701 OI 150,947 (+5,658), now larger than the front contract’s book.
  • ⊘ NEW, BEARISH (1): Asia’s H1 2026 alumina exports reached **7.05 million mt, +27.36% year on year, worth USD 2.76 billion, with 8 million mt flagged as reachable in H2. This is a quantified ex-China alumina supply-loosening datum.**
  • ⊘ NEW, BEARISH (2): a weekly trade caliber reports Chinese alumina spot prices drifting LOWER on **climbing inventories and elevated output, and puts Chinese alumina operating capacity at roughly 99 million mt/yr. ⊘ That figure does not match the 95.90 million mt/yr (on 120.95 million mt built) this brief carries; both are listed and NOT reconciled — but on either, idle capacity dwarfs the entire forward cut ledger.**
  • ⊘ NEW, BEARISH (3): imported bauxite arrivals are RISING because Guinean miners are front-loading shipments ahead of policy uncertainty and rainy-season disruption, concentrating cargo into the current window. ⊘ This works directly against the rising ore cost floor this brief has recorded for several editions — in the SHORT term it points the other way (interpretation).
  • ⊘ A further bauxite forecast caliber: Australia ~USD 39/t against Guinea USD 34–46/t. ⊘ This is a DIFFERENT pricing basis from the USD 72–73/dry mt CIF spot carried here; both are listed and explicitly NOT reconciled.
  • ⚑ NEW, BULLISH (cost): September aluminium fluoride tender prices were settled higher by benchmark enterprises, with the material holding a firm trend. This runs alongside the September prebaked anode price of 5,730 yuan/mt spot already on the ledger — both lift smelter input cost (interpretation).
  • ⚑⊘ NEW: Rusal is reported to be seeking Kremlin support, with **four bauxite and alumina facilities at mothballing risk on combined annual losses of roughly USD 800 million. ⚑ Bullish for the alumina cost floor if executed; ⊘ but like the 2.1 million mt mothball already on the ledger it remains a PROPOSAL, and is recorded as unexecuted.**
  • ⚑⊘ Alloy: a trade caliber reports Chinese scrap prices stable to slightly higher with ADC12 up for consecutive weeks, but **primary outpacing scrap. That is consistent with the AD−AL day spread widening from 735 to 745 on September 4 (derivation).**
  • ⊘ The ADC12 calibers remain unreconciled and gain one this edition: 23,900 (carried), SMM 23,950, Changjiang spot alloy 24,000, Changjiang composite East China 23,615, Foshan mainstream 23,500–23,800; A356.2 24,400.

3 · Inventory

⚑⚑ The only column that moved this edition — and it moved decisively

  • ⚑⚑ SMM’s Thursday social-inventory print IS RETRIEVABLE: national ingot inventory in major consuming regions was **815,000 mt at September 3, −22,000 mt versus Monday and −37,000 mt versus the prior Thursday.**
  • ⚑⚑ The three “irreconcilable calibers” are proven this edition to be **not three calibers but three dates: 852,000 mt is Thursday August 27; 837,000 mt is Monday August 31; 815,000 mt is Thursday September 3. All three arithmetic identities close EXACTLY (derivation):**
    • 852,000 − 15,000 = 837,000 (SMM’s own August 31 line: “down 15,000 mt from Thursday”) ✓
    • 837,000 − 22,000 = 815,000 (SMM’s own September 3 line: “down 22,000 mt from Monday”) ✓
    • 852,000 − 37,000 = 815,000 (SMM’s own September 3 line: “down 37,000 mt from last Thursday”) ✓
  • ⚑ All three close with zero error and no rounding gap. The 43,000 mt “spread” recorded one edition ago was therefore **a date-alignment error made by this brief, not a conflict in the source.**
  • ⚑⚑ REVERSAL: the prior edition, under a commitment written in advance, marked the 837,000 mt caliber LOW-CONFIDENCE and removed it as the primary domestic number. The triggering condition of that downgrade was **the absence of data. The data has arrived and has vindicated the figure. The downgrade is therefore WITHDRAWN and SMM is restored as this brief’s primary domestic caliber. A downgrade executed on one’s own standard has to be reversed on the same standard (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ Exactly ONE genuine caliber spread survives: Mysteel’s 809,000 mt at August 31 against SMM’s 837,000 mt at the SAME date — 28,000 mt apart, of which roughly 107,000 mt in the Mysteel figure is unclear-ownership tonnage. That one is real, is NOT dissolved by anything here, and both continue to be listed.

⚑⚑ Interpretation: the restored series says the opposite of what the prior edition read into it

  • ⊘ The prior edition, working from month totals alone, recorded that “destocking is decelerating — August’s 106,000 mt is only about six-tenths of July’s 170,000 mt.” On the evidence then available that was a fair reading, and it was the inventory column’s only bearish item.
  • ⚑⚑ September’s first print FALSIFIES it (derivation):
    • August weekly pace: 106,000 mt ÷ 31 days × 7 = ~23,935 mt/week.
    • July weekly pace: 170,000 mt ÷ 31 days × 7 = ~38,387 mt/week.
    • Actual August 27 → September 3: **37,000 mt/week.**
    • That is **1.55× the August pace and 96% of the July pace.**
  • ⚑ The conclusion is unambiguous: destocking did not continue to decelerate into September — it RE-ACCELERATED in September’s first week, to roughly the July rate. The prior edition’s deceleration reading is superseded by first-hand data (interpretation).
  • ⚑ The cumulative line updates with it: from the early-July phase high of 1.13 million mt to 815,000 mt is **−315,000 mt, against the 278,000 mt the same computation gave one edition ago on ~850,000. One print extended the run by 37,000 mt.**

⚑ The daily series agrees independently — and its cadence is also accelerating

  • ⚑ SMM three-region daily ingot inventory: September 1 659,500 mt → September 2 651,500 mt (−8,000) → September 3 641,000 mt (−10,500). The daily draw got LARGER, not smaller.
  • ⚑ September 3 by region: Guangdong 143,000 mt (−1,500), Wuxi 300,000 mt (−4,500), Gongyi 198,000 mt (−4,500).
  • ⚑ Coverage (derivation): 641,000 ÷ 815,000 = **78.7%. This is not a narrow sample confirming a broad one — it is most of the broad one confirming itself.**
  • ⚑ SMM two-region daily billet: September 2 89,000 mt (+1,500; Guangdong 65,000, Wuxi 24,000) → September 3 89,000 mt (unchanged). ⊘ Billet did NOT follow ingot down, and this must be read together with the rod oversupply item below.

⚑ Regional detail and withdrawals: the strongest physical evidence in this edition

  • ⚑ SMM regional breakdown at August 27: Foshan 153,000 mt (−66,000 mt over five weeks, premiums 220 yuan/mt, described by SMM as the strongest market); Wuxi 326,000 mt (discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity); Gongyi 209,000 mt (−35,000 mt over five weeks, discounts 80–130 yuan/mt, weakest fundamentals).
  • ⚑⚑ Weekly warehouse withdrawals **135,400 mt, +12,200 mt week on week, described by SMM as the highest for the same period in nearly four years. This is the only QUANTITY-based rather than price-based demand evidence this brief has carried in recent editions — withdrawals are metal physically leaving warehouses, not an inference from price (interpretation).**
  • ⚑⊘ One conditional derivation runs against the grain and is recorded rather than suppressed: the August 27 regional table sums to 153,000 + 326,000 + 209,000 = **688,000 mt, which against September 3’s 641,000 implies the three regions drew 47,000 mt in the week while the national figure drew 37,000 — a residual of about +10,000 mt built elsewhere. ⊘ But it cannot be confirmed that “Foshan” and “Guangdong” are the same caliber, so this is FLAGGED and NOT reconciled (derivation).**

⊘ Carried, and still missing

  • ⊘ LME stocks of 245,975 mt (September 3) have now been carried without confirmation for two trading days.
  • ⊘ The SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print was again not retrievable. CARRIED: 391,498 mt with registered warrants 245,510 (−28,691), third-party-described as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline of −137,387 mt from June 12’s 528,885 mt six-year high; SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827).
  • CARRIED (no new print): bonded 116,000 mt at September 3 (Shanghai 89,000 + Guangdong 27,000, flat w/w); national alumina inventory 7.27 million mt (+8,000) at September 3; national mainstream billet 140,500 mt (August 31); cast alloy 28,100 mt.

4 · Macro Factors

⊘ No new trading day — this edition adds one caliber set and one calendar

  • CARRIED: US August payrolls 162,000 against a consensus of 53,000 (triple, and above every estimate in the Bloomberg survey); unemployment 4.1%; July restated from −23,000 to +21,000 and June revised up to 31,000; average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m to $37.75 and only +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle.
  • ⊘ NEW — a **fourth caliber set for the September 4 US close, listed alongside the three already carried and NOT reconciled: S&P 500 7,719 (−0.38%), Dow 53,414 (−0.51%), Nasdaq 26,507 (−0.29%), 10-year Treasury 4.789% (+0.34%), DXY 99.157 (+0.25%), gold $4,429/oz (−1.14%), VIX 14.53 (+1.47%).**
  • ⚑ Worth stating: the equity, dollar and 10-year legs essentially AGREE with the carried set (S&P 7,718/7,719; Dow 53,413/53,414; Nasdaq 26,506/26,507; DXY 99.13/99.157/99.27; 10-year 4.78–4.789%). Gold adds a fourth caliber at $4,429 beside $4,376.04, $4,384.91 and $4,476.60 — all four move DOWN, none agrees on level.
  • ⊘⊘ But the oil leg has broken outright: this caliber gives Brent **$88.88 (−0.03%) and WTI $83.11 (−0.11%), against the $96.28 Brent and $91.31/$91.48 WTI carried one edition ago, plus a third reading of “WTI below $90.” The two sets are $7–8 per barrel apart on the same session and NO source reconciles them. This brief lists both, states plainly that they are irreconcilable, and on that basis makes no directional judgement on crude this edition (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ The Fed calibers have escalated from disagreeing on LEVEL to disagreeing on DIRECTION: one reads September hike **49.4% with hold 50.6% and describes it as DOWN from 57% a week earlier; another read 66% on August 31; the set this brief carries is ~57% after the payrolls print (having gone from ~50.5% to ~65% and back). All three listed in parallel, none reconciled. ⊘ The October fed funds strip is missing for a NINTH consecutive edition.**
  • ⚑ NEXT WEEK’S CHINA CALENDAR (new this edition, and directly actionable Monday through Thursday): September 7 August FX reserves; **September 8 August trade balance and import/export y/y; September 9 August CPI (expected to rise to +0.9% y/y) and PPI (expected +3.2%); September 10 August M0/M1/M2, TSF and new yuan loans (expected ~RMB 500 billion). ⚑ The September 8 export print is the only one that touches aluminium directly — this brief already carries China’s July aluminium product exports at +18.7% y/y (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ CARRIED: Canada’s counter-tariffs on steel and aluminium rise from 25% to 50% on September 8, with aluminium rod named — the same day as the China export data.

Interpretation

  • ⊘ The macro column keeps the prior edition’s NEUTRAL-to-BEARISH designation unchanged. This edition adds **no new directional information — only more calibers and wider disagreement among them (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ One thing must be said honestly: when the same session produces a $7–8 gap in crude and two Fed readings that point in opposite directions, this brief’s resolution on the macro column is DEGRADED. No new weight is placed on the macro column this edition (interpretation).
  • ⚑ Against that, this edition’s resolution on the PHYSICAL column is IMPROVED: one restored weekly series, two mutually independent daily series, one five-week regional breakdown and one weekly withdrawal figure. Four evidence types, all pointing the same way. The centre of gravity of this edition’s judgement is placed there accordingly (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Domestic supply and demand

  • CARRIED: Chinese primary aluminium operating rate 98.4%, with no domestic supply elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling; the “15th Five-Year” industrial green and low-carbon plan still gives no detail on how the electrolytic aluminium capacity ceiling will be handled.
  • CARRIED: RatingDog August manufacturing PMI 51.5 (a six-month high); NBS August 49.8; aluminium processing sector August composite PMI 48.7%.
  • CARRIED: weekly operating rates to August 27 — extrusion 50.6% (−0.2), plate/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6). No update this edition.
  • ⚑⚑ This edition’s strongest demand evidence is upgraded from PRICE-based to QUANTITY-based: weekly warehouse withdrawals of 135,400 mt (+12,200 w/w, the highest for the same period in nearly four years). Several recent editions of this brief explicitly conceded that its demand evidence was price-based rather than quantity-based; this item closes that gap (interpretation).
  • ⊘ But the same edition produces a quantity datum pointing the other way: a trade caliber reports **aluminium rod oversupply persisting with processing fees stable at LOW levels, inventory ratios down week on week but absolute inventory still elevated and demand recovery subdued. It is echoed by SMM’s two-region billet series being flat at 89,000 mt on September 3 while ingot drew.**
  • ⚑⊘ The two must be read together (interpretation): part of the 37,000 mt weekly ingot draw is metal moving from INGOT warehouses into ROD warehouses rather than into end demand. A brief that treats the ingot draw as its central bullish fact is obliged to record that discount alongside it.
  • ⊘ TRADE POLICY, NEW AND BEARISH: **Thailand has opened a new-exporter anti-dumping review on Chinese aluminium extrusions, with applicants subject to a provisional cash deposit rate of 21.94%. The underlying final determination was issued November 24, 2025 at 5.12%–21.94% for five years. ⊘ Export demand is already the weakest column on this brief’s ledger, and this lands squarely on it.**

⚑⊘ Overseas and cost side: one bullish, three bearish

  • ⚑ BULLISH (cost): September aluminium fluoride tender prices settled higher; carried September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 acceptance; carried Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output 7.38 million mt, −14.19% y/y.
  • ⚑⊘ Rusal seeking Kremlin support with four bauxite and alumina plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of combined annual losses — **a proposal, not an execution.**
  • ⊘ BEARISH (1): Asia’s H1 alumina exports 7.05 million mt (+27.36%, USD 2.76 billion), with 8 million mt reachable in H2.
  • ⊘ BEARISH (2): Chinese alumina spot drifting lower on climbing inventories and elevated output; an operating-capacity caliber of ~99 million mt/yr against the 95.90 million mt/yr carried here (listed in parallel, not reconciled).
  • ⊘ BEARISH (3): Guinean miners front-loading shipments, lifting imported bauxite arrivals in the near term.
  • CARRIED (forward supply ledger, no update this edition): Rusal’s 2.1 million mt alumina mothball and the SUBR bauxite mine (still a proposal); Guinea’s export cap target of ~150 million mt/yr (−25%); Rio Tinto Yarwun cutting 1.2 million mt/yr from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut by 200,000–300,000 mt; Alunorte down to 50% on gas before recovering to full rate under a temporary terminal agreement; Qatalum at ~60% of nameplate; Alba potlines 1–3 down (19%); EGA Al Taweelah refilled from 18% to 25%.
  • CARRIED (bearish): Japanese Q4 2026 premium offers USD 310–325/mt, −18% to −22% q/q — no update and no rebuttal this edition.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⊘ No new trading day — the September 4 transaction and sentiment picture is carried

  • CARRIED · East China: Shanghai spot 24,360 (+20), basis a +70 premium. Holders raised offers by 20 while the board fell 80, and transactions held. Shipment willingness **firm (reluctance to sell); purchasing willingness firm.**
  • CARRIED · South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40), Nanchu 24,520 (−30), Chalco South 24,520 (−30) — three calibers down in absolute terms; shipment willingness strong but price-holding willingness weak.
  • CARRIED · Central and Southwest: Chalco Central 24,210 (flat), a second session above 24,000; Southwest 24,370 (flat).
  • ⚑ NEW CORROBORATION available to those judgements this edition (interpretation): SMM’s August 27 regional detail shows Foshan carrying a 220 yuan/mt PREMIUM with a five-week draw of 66,000 mt and being called the strongest market; Wuxi at a 20 yuan/mt discount to parity; Gongyi at 80–130 yuan/mt discounts and the weakest fundamentals. That ranking matches the September 4 price structure (Nanhai > Nanchu > Shanghai > Chalco Central), which means South China’s absolute price decline is a retreat **from a high, not a further slide from weakness.**
  • ⚑ SMM’s structural call for September (carried, and now supported by the daily data): cross-regional flows will rebalance regional inventories and premia — arrival pressure rising in South China with premiums retreating from highs, local pressure easing in East China with discounts narrowing, and the three regions’ spreads converging. ⚑ The simultaneous narrowing of all three South China spreads on September 4 is the first step on exactly that path (interpretation).
  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices are unavailable for a sixth consecutive edition; the judgements above are inferred from price, change, basis, spread and inventory behaviour, and are NOT SMM index readings.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑⚑ SMM’s Thursday social-inventory print is retrievable again: 815,000 mt at September 3, −22,000 vs Monday, −37,000 vs the prior Thursday.
  • ⚑⚑ All three arithmetic identities close with zero error (852−15=837, 837−22=815, 852−37=815); the 43,000 mt “spread” goes to zero and the domestic series is restored as an internally consistent high-frequency series.
  • ⚑⚑ The reliability downgrade executed one edition ago is WITHDRAWN; SMM is restored as the primary domestic caliber.
  • ⚑⚑ Destocking RE-ACCELERATED: 37,000 mt/week is 1.55× the August weekly pace (~23,935 mt) and 96% of July’s (~38,387 mt); the prior edition’s deceleration reading is falsified.
  • ⚑ Cumulative draw from the 1.13 million mt early-July phase high is now 315,000 mt (against 278,000 mt on the same method one edition ago).
  • ⚑ The daily series agrees independently and is also accelerating: 659,500 → 651,500 (−8,000) → 641,000 (−10,500).
  • ⚑ Three-region coverage is 78.7% of the national figure, so the confirmation is not a narrow sample.
  • ⚑ Weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years — the only quantity-based demand evidence this brief has carried recently.
  • ⚑ Foshan drew 66,000 mt over five weeks at a 220 yuan/mt premium; Gongyi drew 35,000 mt over five weeks.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: the basis is a +70 premium after a hundred-point one-day swing, achieved on a day the board FELL — the first spot premium since August 13.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: the close is above all six averages by 101.00 to 713.33 for a fifth consecutive session, with all six rising and MA60 up a second day.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: the week closed +370 (+1.55%); the settlement of 24,375 was +100 on the prior settlement.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: the main contract shed 2,092 lots while AL2611 added 7,757 and the complex added 2,553 — a roll, not liquidation.
  • ⚑ NEW corroboration: AL2702 closed 24,160 (+60), the largest close-basis gain on the September 4 aluminium board, pointing the same way as the roll reading.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: alumina’s 2,757 is the highest close in 47 sessions and its first day-session clearance of all six averages; the settlement of 2,748 is 30 above cost caliber one; AO2701’s book now exceeds the front contract’s.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: AD2610 held above all six of its averages for a fifth session despite falling 90.
  • ⚑ NEW: September aluminium fluoride tender prices raised — smelter input cost continues to lift.
  • ⚑ NEW (conditional): Rusal’s four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of annual losses — bullish for the alumina cost floor IF executed.
  • ⚑ NEW: ADC12 up for consecutive weeks (though lagging primary).
  • ⚑ METHODOLOGICAL: London MA5 ($3,250.80) and MA10 ($3,229.40) were independently re-derived from Westmetall’s own rows and reproduce to the cent, confirming the carried set is sound.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: LME stocks of 245,975 mt are the lowest since 1990; the SHFE weekly print is third-party-described as an eleventh consecutive decline; bonded stock is flat week on week, so external metal has not returned.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: Chinese operating rate 98.4% against the 45 million mt ceiling; Chalco H1 alumina output −14.19% y/y.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: Guinean bauxite spot USD 72–73/dry mt, September long-term flat, freight near USD 40.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: US August average hourly earnings only +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle; a three-times payrolls beat bought only ~5–15 points of hike pricing.
  • ⚑ SMM expects destocking to continue through the first half of September and expects the three regions’ spreads to converge.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘⊘ London is blank for a THIRD consecutive edition: Westmetall’s September 4 settlement row is still unpublished, so there is still no new exact London average.
  • ⊘⊘ Neither the September 4 nor the September 7 LME stock figure was retrievable; 245,975 mt is now TWO trading days stale and has degraded from “confirmed” to “carried.”
  • ⊘ The only September 4 London caliber, $3,292.50 (−0.81%), points DOWN and cannot be reconciled with the settlement series; two further retail calibers ($3,280.60 and $3,317.50) sit beside it, so London carries three mutually inconsistent readings.
  • ⊘ NEW (trade): Thailand opened a new-exporter anti-dumping review on Chinese aluminium extrusions at a provisional 21.94% cash deposit, under an order running at 5.12%–21.94% for five years.
  • ⊘ CARRIED and now imminent: Canada’s counter-tariff step-up from 25% to 50% on September 8, with aluminium rod named.
  • ⊘ NEW (alumina supply 1): Asia’s H1 alumina exports 7.05 million mt, +27.36% y/y, with 8 million mt reachable in H2.
  • ⊘ NEW (alumina supply 2): Chinese alumina spot drifting lower on climbing inventories and elevated output; an operating-capacity caliber of ~99 million mt/yr, with idle capacity dwarfing the whole forward cut ledger.
  • ⊘ NEW (bauxite): Guinean miners front-loading shipments, lifting imported arrivals and weakening the ore cost floor in the near term.
  • ⊘ NEW (downstream): aluminium rod oversupply persists, processing fees stay at low levels and absolute rod inventory remains elevated; SMM’s two-region billet series was FLAT at 89,000 mt on September 3 while ingot drew — part of the ingot draw is warehouse-to-warehouse transfer rather than end consumption.
  • ⊘ SURVIVING SPREAD: Mysteel 809,000 mt against SMM 837,000 mt, both at August 31 — 28,000 mt apart, including ~107,000 mt of unclear-ownership tonnage. NOT dissolved this edition.
  • ⊘ CONDITIONAL DERIVATION (against the grain): 688,000 mt across the three regions at August 27 against 641,000 at September 3 implies a 47,000 mt regional draw versus 37,000 nationally, i.e. ~10,000 mt built elsewhere (Foshan/Guangdong caliber uncertain, not reconciled).
  • ⊘ CARRIED: the close of 24,290 landed exactly back on the August 12 close, handing back the prior session’s clearance in full; 24,490 and 24,510 are confirmed resistance; the prior two-branch test is recorded INDETERMINATE.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: the MA5 clearance has collapsed from 255.00 to 101.00; the 20- and 60-session close percentiles retreated from 100.0%/100.0% to 89.7%/95.8%.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: volume of 151,835 was 33.9% below the prior day’s sixty-session record — the follow-through did not come.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: alumina open interest fell 14,117 lots for a sixth consecutive decline, −167,223 lots (−59.5%) from August 27; complex OI fell 10,329, so genuine departure is present alongside migration.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: all three South China spot calibers fell in absolute terms and all three spreads narrowed a second day, with South China tightness recorded as faded.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: US August payrolls 162,000 (triple consensus); the dollar reclaimed 99; gold fell on four calibers; equities gave back the best day since August 4; the macro column stays NEUTRAL-to-BEARISH.
  • ⊘ Fed calibers now disagree on direction, not merely level (49.4% and described as down from 57%, against 66% and against the carried ~57%); the October fed funds strip is missing for a ninth edition.
  • ⊘⊘ Crude shows a $7–8/bbl caliber break on the same session (Brent $88.88 vs $96.28; WTI $83.11 vs $91.31/$91.48); this brief makes no directional call on oil this edition and records that macro resolution is degraded.
  • ⊘ The SHFE weekly warehouse and warrant print was again not retrievable; SMM’s absolute A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings are login-walled for a sixth consecutive edition.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: Japanese Q4 premium offers of USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q) remain the hardest bearish physical datum on the ledger.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: the AD−AL day spread widened from 735 to 745; AD2611’s book is now triple AD2610’s.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

No exchange traded between the last edition and this one, so every price here is the September 4 set carried forward, and the whole of this edition’s new content falls in a single column — which happens to be the column this brief downgraded with its own hand one edition ago: SMM’s Thursday social-inventory print became retrievable overnight after two consecutive failures, landing at 815,000 mt for September 3, down 22,000 mt from Monday and 37,000 mt from the prior Thursday, and the first thing to say about it is not that it is bullish but that it is EXPLANATORY, because the prior edition recorded three domestic calibers of 852,000, 837,000 and 809,000, described a 43,000 mt spread across them, marked the middle one low-confidence and removed it as the primary number, when two of those three were never competing calibers at all — 852,000 is Thursday August 27, 837,000 is Monday August 31, 815,000 is Thursday September 3, and the three change lines SMM itself published close with zero error (852 minus 15 equals 837, 837 minus 22 equals 815, 852 minus 37 equals 815, no rounding gap on any of them), so the “spread” was a date-alignment error made by this brief rather than a conflict in the source, and a downgrade whose triggering condition was the ABSENCE of data can only honestly be withdrawn once the data arrives and vindicates the figure, which is what this edition does, restoring SMM as the primary domestic caliber and leaving exactly one genuine spread standing — Mysteel’s 809,000 mt against SMM’s 837,000 mt at the same August 31 date, 28,000 mt apart with roughly 107,000 mt of unclear-ownership tonnage inside the Mysteel figure, unreconciled and still listed in parallel; the restored series then says the opposite of what the prior edition read into it, because that edition, working from month totals alone, recorded destocking as decelerating on the ground that August’s 106,000 mt was six-tenths of July’s 170,000 mt — fair on the evidence then available, and the inventory column’s only bearish item — and September’s first print falsifies it, since 37,000 mt in a week runs at 1.55 times August’s weekly pace of roughly 23,935 mt and at 96% of July’s roughly 38,387 mt, meaning destocking did not decelerate into September but RE-ACCELERATED in its first week to approximately the July rate, with cumulative draw from the 1.13 million mt early-July phase high extending from 278,000 mt to 315,000 mt; the daily series says the same thing on a different cadence and independently, three-region totals going 659,500 to 651,500 to 641,000 with the daily draw WIDENING from 8,000 to 10,500 and those three regions representing 78.7% of the national number, so this is not a narrow sample confirming a broad one but most of the broad one confirming itself; and SMM’s regional detail finally supplies the evidence type this brief has repeatedly conceded it lacked — Foshan down 66,000 mt over five weeks at a 220 yuan/mt premium, Gongyi down 35,000, and weekly warehouse withdrawals of 135,400 mt, up 12,200 week on week and called the highest for the same period in nearly four years, which is metal physically leaving warehouses and therefore QUANTITY evidence rather than the price inference this brief has been leaning on; the opposite direction must be recorded with equal weight, because aluminium rod oversupply persists with processing fees at low levels and absolute rod inventory elevated, and SMM’s two-region billet series was flat at 89,000 mt on September 3 while ingot drew, which means part of the 37,000 mt is metal moving from ingot warehouses into rod warehouses rather than into end demand, a discount a brief that treats the ingot draw as its central bullish fact is obliged to carry; three further lines worsened — London is blank for a third consecutive edition with Westmetall’s September 4 row still unpublished, so there is still no new exact London average and, more damagingly, neither the September 4 nor the September 7 stock figure was retrievable, leaving the hardest bullish datum on this ledger, 245,975 mt and lowest since 1990, carried without confirmation for two full trading days, the sole compensation being methodological, in that MA5 and MA10 were re-derived from Westmetall’s own ten rows and reproduce at 3,250.80 and 3,229.40 to the cent; trade policy added a bearish item landing precisely on the weakest column, with Thailand opening a new-exporter anti-dumping review on Chinese aluminium extrusions at a provisional 21.94% while Canada’s step-up from 25% to 50% arrives on September 8, the same day as China’s August export print; and the alumina supply ledger turned bearish in three places at once, with Asia’s H1 exports up 27.36% to 7.05 million mt and 8 million reachable in H2, Chinese alumina spot drifting lower on climbing inventories and elevated output against an operating-capacity caliber near 99 million mt/yr, and Guinean miners front-loading shipments so that imported bauxite arrivals surge — that last item working directly against the rising ore cost floor this brief has recorded for several editions — while Rusal seeking Kremlin support for four plants losing some USD 800 million a year points the other way but remains, like the 2.1 million mt proposal already on the ledger, unexecuted; the macro column added no directional information whatsoever, only more calibers and wider disagreement, with the same session producing a $7–8 crude break (Brent $88.88 against $96.28, WTI $83.11 against $91.31) and two Fed readings pointing opposite ways (49.4% described as down from 57%, against 66% on August 31 and the carried ~57%), so this edition places no new weight there, keeps the NEUTRAL-to-BEARISH designation and records plainly that its macro resolution has degraded; the net, in an edition with no prices, is that what changed is CONFIDENCE rather than level — the bulls recovered the one thing they had lost, a reliable, high-frequency, internally consistent domestic inventory series, and recovered it in the strongest available form because the restored series shows acceleration where deceleration had been inferred and because three independent evidence types, weekly, daily and physical withdrawals, all point the same way, while the bears gained a third blank London edition, a two-day-stale flagship number, a new tariff review, three bearish alumina supply items and a rod market absorbing part of the draw; the prior edition’s judgement that the bull case had MIGRATED from the financial column to the physical one is not overturned here — what this edition did was raise the RESOLUTION of the column that judgement now rests on (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for Monday’s Reopen (September 7) and the Night Session

  • ⚑ Price comes first, and the levels are unchanged from the prior edition: 24,320 is the starting point, 24,290 is the first test and 24,189.00 is the second. The September 4 night’s last of 24,320 sits 30 above the day close, so Monday begins from 24,320, not 24,290. A day session that holds above 24,290 and closes above 24,320 classifies September 4 as a confirming retest of a cleared level; a break of 24,290 followed by loss of the MA5 at 24,189.00 — where only 101.00 of clearance remains — puts price back inside its own band and the advance dating from August 3 requires re-assessment. The prior two-branch test (24,390 / 24,275) remains live, and open interest must be judged on the COMPLEX total rather than the main contract alone.
  • ⚑⚑ This edition’s most important follow-through: whether Monday’s SMM print lands at or below roughly 800,000 mt. The central claim here is that destocking re-accelerated in September’s first week to 1.55× the August pace — and it rests on ONE weekly observation. Monday’s start-of-week print is its first test: a figure in the 800,000–806,000 mt band (a further 9,000–15,000 mt draw from September 3, consistent with the usual weekend cadence) confirms the acceleration as a SERIES; a flat print or a build back above 820,000 mt demotes this edition’s acceleration reading to single-week noise, and this brief will write that demotion explicitly. Watch too whether the three-region daily series sustains its −8,000 to −10,500 cadence.
  • ⚑⚑ London is now three days in arrears: Westmetall’s September 4 settlement row plus BOTH the September 4 and September 7 stock figures. If Monday brings no publication, the hardest bullish datum on this ledger will be three trading days stale, and at that point this brief will demote “LME stocks are the lowest since 1990” from a CURRENT FACT to a HISTORICAL REFERENCE and will label that demotion explicitly in the next edition — a commitment written in advance, of the same kind as the one made about domestic inventory two editions ago. Watch also whether the September 4 cash settlement lands near $3,292.50 (if so, LME remains above all six of its averages and the six-of-six holds) and whether the $0.50 contango widens or flips back to backwardation.
  • ⚑ Whether the basis holds its premium remains the single test of the physical column’s strongest evidence, and the levels are 0 and −20. The +70 premium of September 4 has a one-session lifespan. If spot stays above the board on Monday (basis ≥ 0), “downstream is taking metal at higher prices” upgrades from a one-day event to a series and corroborates the inventory series restored this edition; if the basis retreats beyond −20, the premium should be reclassified as passive dislocation caused by Friday’s board decline. Watch alongside it whether the three South China calibers (Nanhai 24,810, Nanchu 24,520, Chalco South 24,520) stop falling, and whether SMM’s expected convergence of the three regions’ spreads continues.
  • ⚑ Alumina: the price leg and the industry leg diverged for the first time this edition, and the levels are 2,738.68, 2,718 and open interest. The board at 2,757 is above cost and above all six averages, but the three industry items added this edition (Asia exports +27.36%, Chinese spot lower on climbing inventories, Guinean front-loading lifting arrivals) all point to looser supply. A Monday close above the MA60 at 2,738.68 with open interest ending its six-session decline resolves the test that has been split in half for three consecutive editions in the bulls’ favour; a fall back below cost caliber one at 2,718 with a seventh consecutive OI decline means the industry news has begun to show up on the board. Watch also whether AO2701’s open interest stays above AO2610’s — if it consolidates, the “migration, not departure” reading gains a second confirmation.
  • ⚑ September 8 is the week’s double event: China’s August trade data and Canada’s 25%-to-50% tariff step-up land on the same day. China’s July aluminium product exports at +18.7% y/y are already on the ledger, and the August print tests whether that momentum held; Canada’s doubling names aluminium rod specifically, which lands exactly on this edition’s new “rod oversupply, low processing fees” item. The two should be watched as a pair rather than as two separate lines, since both fall on the weakest column in this brief. September 9 CPI (expected +0.9%) and PPI (expected +3.2%) and September 10 credit data (new loans expected ~RMB 500 billion) set the back half of the week’s macro cadence.
  • ⚑ The SHFE weekly warehouse and warrant print should publish during the week, and watch whether SMM’s sentiment indices and Chalco’s five alumina listings become retrievable. The last print was 391,498 mt with warrants at 245,510, third-party-described as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline. If a twelfth is confirmed, the TIME-SPAN evidence for domestic destocking widens from a single social-inventory source to exchange warrants, giving the series restored this edition a second independent leg. ⊘ Chalco’s listings and SMM’s alumina index are login-walled for a sixth consecutive edition, so the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test remains UNTESTABLE rather than failed, and this brief will keep labelling it as such rather than substituting an inference.

Disclaimer

  • This brief is prepared for internal morning-meeting reference only. Data are drawn from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s public daily files and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), Mysteel, CNAL, AL Circle and public company disclosures. Items marked “⚑ / ⊘” are factual data; items marked “(interpretation)” or “(derivation)” are this brief’s judgement or calculation, and the two are distinguished explicitly throughout. Where sources disagree, all calibers are listed in parallel and are NOT reconciled. Because no exchange traded during this reporting window, all price data are carried forward and each instance is labelled as such. This brief does not constitute investment advice and accepts no responsibility for any decision made on the basis of it.